MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

June 7, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
BAL @ TOR2 - 32 - 4TORTORTOR wins 4-254%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
BOS @ NYY1 - 20 - 3NYYNYYNYY wins 3-057%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHW @ PHI5 - 74 - 8PHIPHIPHI wins 8-453%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CIN @ STL5 - 63 - 8STLSTLSTL wins 8-354%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CLE @ TEX1 - 22 - 3TEXTEXTEX wins 3-255%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
KC @ MIN3 - 24 - 2KCKCKC wins 4-257%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAA @ LAD1 - 31 - 2LADLADLAD wins 2-153%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIL @ COL7 - 28 - 1MILMILMIL wins 8-166%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYM @ SD4 - 15 - 1NYMNYMNYM wins 5-157%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
OAK @ HOU4 - 35 - 3OAKOAKOAK wins 5-357%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PIT @ ATL2 - 32 - 3ATLATLATL wins 3-255%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SEA @ DET4 - 35 - 2SEASEASEA wins 5-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SF @ CHC5 - 64 - 6CHCCHCCHC wins 6-454%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TB @ MIA4 - 23 - 2TBTBTB wins 3-257%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
WAS @ ARI2 - 32 - 3ARIARIARI wins 3-254%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

BAL 31-35 (4.68 RPG / 5.15 RA)
2 - 4
TOR 32-34 (4.12 RPG / 4.32 RA)
WINNER: TOR wins 4-2 TARGET: BAL 2 - 3 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 54.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
BAL00001010026
TOR03010000x49

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.197
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-148.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.213
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-131.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record31-34
Win%0.477
Run Diff-29
RD/Game-0.446

TOR Season Quality

Record31-34
Win%0.477
Run Diff-15
RD/Game-0.231

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2154; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 259951250 0.263 9740.407 54111 11 0.250 0.274 0.405 0.368 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 2611115237 0.213 541370.268 54200 10 0.500 0.231 0.284 0.391 OK
Adley RutschmanDH 167652175 0.268 321190.340 55000 02 0.000 0.279 0.349 0.506 OK
Pete Alonso1B 251963235 0.244 431540.325 43111 10 0.333 0.270 0.344 0.487 OK
Samuel BasalloC 169611165 0.270 32900.330 44000 02 0.000 0.242 0.318 0.431 OK
Colton CowserCF 11933671 0.211 10450.299 44000 01 0.000 0.236 0.324 0.383 OK
Tyler O'NeillRF 10932254 0.168 8300.285 43000 10 0.000 0.180 0.272 0.249 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 3310623 0.217 5190.294 42200 10 1.000 0.206 0.297 0.320 OK
Blaze Alexander3B 135445122 0.274 5560.326 44000 00 0.000 0.259 0.315 0.398 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39336 22 56 0.182

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 168683146 0.214 23650.292 44211 00 0.500 0.217 0.292 0.358 OK
Yohendrick PinangoRF 8629690 0.304 9470.333 44211 02 0.500 0.279 0.305 0.436 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 233856251 0.293 121000.391 44110 01 0.250 0.266 0.356 0.362 OK
Jesús SánchezLF 181610169 0.277 251050.318 44100 01 0.250 0.203 0.231 0.315 OK
Ernie Clement2B 229918280 0.305 23930.326 44100 01 0.250 0.303 0.321 0.478 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 11235095 0.271 19480.366 44100 00 0.250 0.256 0.350 0.488 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 231864194 0.225 501350.313 41000 20 0.000 0.267 0.336 0.449 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 202723165 0.228 251120.262 44112 00 0.250 0.217 0.240 0.344 OK
Myles StrawCF 9925563 0.247 7200.322 44000 00 0.000 0.143 0.216 0.219 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36339 44 25 0.273

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane BazStarter 1269.04.43 1.4208.263 6.173313105 6.1 3 3
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2824.00.75 0.66711.230 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 1510.88.33 1.85211.714 0.00110012 0.0 0 1
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 2717.52.57 0.7438.216 0.21000112 0.2 1 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 2827.24.63 1.28711.234 0.0000104 0.0 0 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kevin GausmanStarter 1372.93.46 1.1259.174 5.241145103 5.2 5 1
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 3030.30.30 1.05612.843 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 3026.12.41 1.1495.917 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Braydon FisherMiddle Reliever 3330.22.98 1.12611.037 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

TOR wins 4-2


Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

BOS 27-36 (3.95 RPG / 4.1 RA)
0 - 3
NYY 38-26 (5.06 RPG / 3.56 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 3-0 TARGET: BOS 1 - 2 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 57.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
BOS00000000005
NYY00020010x36

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.255
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-104.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.291
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-71.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record27-35
Win%0.435
Run Diff-4
RD/Game-0.065

NYY Season Quality

Record37-26
Win%0.587
Run Diff91
RD/Game1.444

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.7367; margin adjustment: 0.7294; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 227947204 0.215 381360.286 44100 00 0.250 0.209 0.269 0.385 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 205780221 0.283 18900.349 44000 00 0.000 0.264 0.312 0.400 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 237934263 0.282 271050.347 44000 01 0.000 0.263 0.330 0.413 OK
Willson Contreras1B 226834238 0.285 511620.381 43100 10 0.333 0.289 0.373 0.535 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 116385100 0.260 4290.348 44200 01 0.500 0.179 0.262 0.271 OK
Mickey GasperC 5218662 0.333 0120.378 44000 02 0.000 0.255 0.302 0.354 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 175604116 0.192 5750.267 33100 00 0.333 0.220 0.263 0.348 OK
Anthony Seigler2B 120 0.000 000.000 33000 01 0.000 0.101 0.116 0.161
Marcelo MayerSS 166553119 0.215 7470.275 33000 03 0.000 0.158 0.214 0.212 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33325 00 18 0.156

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Paul Goldschmidt1B 115432122 0.282 25700.363 44000 02 0.000 0.277 0.338 0.514 OK
Ben RiceDH 219831250 0.301 711730.403 43000 00 0.000 0.307 0.405 0.631 OK
Cody BellingerLF 241881240 0.272 361630.378 44100 01 0.250 0.263 0.368 0.421 OK
Amed Rosario3B 9633297 0.292 27760.336 44100 00 0.250 0.284 0.327 0.586 OK
Trent GrishamCF 216793168 0.212 331340.327 44000 01 0.000 0.233 0.342 0.418 OK
Anthony VolpeSS 4715947 0.296 6360.431 32110 10 0.500 0.240 0.363 0.398 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 222839207 0.247 28940.327 33212 00 0.667 0.225 0.301 0.398 OK
José CaballeroRF 170596163 0.273 19640.327 33000 00 0.000 0.238 0.286 0.387 OK
Ali SánchezC 000 0.000 000.000 33111 00 0.333 0.150 0.224 0.258
TEAM TOTALS 32306 33 14 0.200

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ranger SuarezStarter 1157.53.44 1.1838.957 5.04220385 5.0 3 2
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 2019.20.47 0.93812.226 2.01111132 2.0 1 1
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 129.63.75 1.35413.114 1.01000016 1.0 0 0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cam SchlittlerStarter 1374.71.93 0.88410.184 6.03000692 6.0 6 0
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2523.64.58 1.61011.129 1.02000018 1.0 0 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 3020.02.70 1.60014.833 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2819.14.24 1.4666.113 1.00001117 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 3-0


Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies

CHW 34-31 (4.77 RPG / 4.65 RA)
4 - 8
PHI 35-30 (4.03 RPG / 4.32 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 8-4 TARGET: CHW 5 - 7 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CHW10000000349
PHI22020020x811

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.311
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-64.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.224
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-144.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record34-30
Win%0.531
Run Diff12
RD/Game0.188

PHI Season Quality

Record34-30
Win%0.531
Run Diff-23
RD/Game-0.359

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5469; margin adjustment: -0.2297; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 156552144 0.261 5600.373 55211 01 0.400 0.270 0.325 0.385 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 246911212 0.233 581510.365 55200 02 0.400 0.264 0.387 0.522 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 179661166 0.251 171060.293 55011 00 0.000 0.258 0.326 0.479 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 237894210 0.235 601560.330 43000 12 0.000 0.213 0.276 0.437 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 236913242 0.265 24890.338 43100 10 0.333 0.268 0.341 0.382 OK
Jacob Gonzalez1B 6196 0.316 140.381 44200 01 0.500 0.259 0.328 0.390 OK
Tristan PetersCF 156479141 0.294 8530.355 44111 02 0.250 0.250 0.299 0.386 OK
Drew RomoC 6621839 0.179 18370.298 43000 12 0.000 0.132 0.227 0.313 OK
Rikuu NishidaRF 164711 0.234 020.234 44111 01 0.250 0.211 0.220 0.273 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39369 44 311 0.250

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 247962238 0.247 991860.360 44313 00 0.750 0.263 0.368 0.535 OK
Trea TurnerSS 2481065247 0.232 34910.279 44212 00 0.500 0.234 0.284 0.345 OK
Bryce Harper1B 238863237 0.275 581500.383 44010 01 0.000 0.245 0.367 0.458 OK
Brandon MarshLF 200746254 0.340 251150.371 44112 00 0.250 0.349 0.377 0.563 OK
Alec Bohm3B 217817178 0.218 191040.276 44010 01 0.000 0.236 0.280 0.374 OK
Bryson Stott2B 193692151 0.218 211000.270 44000 00 0.000 0.201 0.257 0.332 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 221788157 0.199 14720.284 43210 11 0.667 0.218 0.274 0.388 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 180614145 0.236 8440.301 44211 00 0.500 0.210 0.264 0.333 OK
Rafael MarchánC 6522218 0.081 4100.124 44110 01 0.250 0.117 0.134 0.169 OK
TEAM TOTALS 363511 88 14 0.314

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler GilbertStarter 22.224.55 3.1828.22 2.27441359 2.2 3 4
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 1.00110016 1.0 0 1
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 2420.91.72 1.4839.923 1.02220019 1.0 0 2
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 1.22110010 1.2 0 1

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron NolaStarter 1259.85.72 1.4389.664 5.04222894 5.0 8 2
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 2120.21.34 0.84214.733 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 2826.53.74 1.2839.829 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 2621.02.57 1.33310.725 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 2716.97.46 2.18914.427 1.04221029 1.0 0 2

Game Summary

PHI wins 8-4


Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals

CIN 31-33 (4.3 RPG / 5.09 RA)
3 - 8
STL 35-28 (4.41 RPG / 4.44 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 8-3 TARGET: CIN 5 - 6 STL (STL) Confidence: 53.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CIN00100000236
STL22102100x810

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.259
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-189.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.143
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-112.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CIN Season Quality

Record31-32
Win%0.492
Run Diff-49
RD/Game-0.778

STL Season Quality

Record34-28
Win%0.548
Run Diff-4
RD/Game-0.065

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7977; margin adjustment: 0.3351; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Blake DunnCF 6025982 0.317 6170.377 54111 12 0.250 0.224 0.270 0.327 OK
JJ BledayLF 120462128 0.277 341050.368 43000 12 0.000 0.243 0.327 0.490 OK
Sal Stewart3B 246920228 0.248 491620.357 44000 00 0.000 0.236 0.337 0.392 OK
Nathaniel LoweDH 136454128 0.282 36930.373 43110 10 0.333 0.152 0.257 0.319 OK
Spencer Steer1B 215790210 0.266 32900.342 44100 02 0.250 0.252 0.346 0.477 OK
Will BensonRF 9525348 0.190 6110.305 43100 10 0.333 0.165 0.259 0.307 OK
Matt McLainSS 219844179 0.212 23930.309 44000 01 0.000 0.207 0.298 0.370 OK
Tyler StephensonC 164541104 0.192 17740.299 44112 00 0.250 0.169 0.272 0.276 OK
Edwin Arroyo2B 4102 0.200 000.333 44100 00 0.250 0.202 0.319 0.285 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37336 33 47 0.182

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 248973232 0.238 421170.359 55110 02 0.200 0.278 0.354 0.407 OK
Iván HerreraC 251955247 0.259 281170.384 55213 02 0.400 0.246 0.332 0.362 OK
Alec Burleson1B 236952268 0.282 321640.347 55112 00 0.200 0.298 0.360 0.479 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 232908291 0.320 702020.385 55312 01 0.600 0.323 0.373 0.558 OK
Lars NootbaarDH 273 0.429 130.500 43110 10 0.333 0.273 0.357 0.555 OK
Bryan TorresLF 269724 0.247 040.330 43010 11 0.000 0.218 0.299 0.333 OK
José FerminSS 000 0.000 000.000 44211 00 0.500 0.256 0.320 0.407
Nolan Gorman3B 205744169 0.227 251100.302 43000 11 0.000 0.184 0.260 0.323 OK
Victor Scott IICF 16348384 0.174 9290.251 41010 30 0.000 0.202 0.284 0.275 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403410 88 67 0.294

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Rhett LowderStarter 837.45.53 1.4446.527 4.16554289 4.1 2 5
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 2621.75.39 1.5679.523 0.11001115 0.1 1 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 3124.24.09 1.69410.829 1.0222106 1.0 0 2
Sam MollMiddle Reliever 2922.23.65 1.30611.829 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 1210.64.25 1.32110.212 0.20000216 0.2 2 0
Caleb FergusonMiddle Reliever 45.40.00 0.55611.77 0.20000214 0.2 2 0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael McGreevyStarter 1265.43.03 1.1166.144 5.24112591 5.2 5 1
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2826.74.04 1.23610.130 1.00000019 1.0 0 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2822.44.42 1.56211.228 1.10002024 1.1 0 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 2722.43.21 1.2508.822 1.02220219 1.0 2 2

Game Summary

STL wins 8-3


Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers

CLE 37-30 (4.06 RPG / 4.04 RA)
2 - 3
TEX 32-33 (4.03 RPG / 3.82 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 3-2 TARGET: CLE 1 - 2 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 54.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CLE00010100028
TEX20000000137

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-108.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-110.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record37-29
Win%0.561
Run Diff11
RD/Game0.167

TEX Season Quality

Record31-33
Win%0.484
Run Diff4
RD/Game0.062

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2185; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Travis Bazzana2B 120440129 0.293 13540.400 44100 00 0.250 0.254 0.329 0.436 OK
José RamírezDH 258958228 0.238 381300.352 44000 00 0.000 0.270 0.371 0.502 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 222861220 0.256 321490.331 44000 01 0.000 0.227 0.297 0.349 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 175622135 0.217 18620.300 44200 00 0.500 0.251 0.334 0.468 OK
Daniel Schneemann3B 165571138 0.242 17780.329 44000 01 0.000 0.227 0.303 0.337 OK
Angel MartínezLF 198761195 0.256 381190.296 44311 00 0.750 0.172 0.194 0.300 OK
Steven KwanCF 236891189 0.212 4560.328 44111 01 0.250 0.224 0.315 0.287 OK
Patrick BaileyC 288112 0.148 370.205 44000 02 0.000 0.159 0.213 0.259 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 211708210 0.297 151060.373 33100 01 0.333 0.237 0.292 0.375 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35358 22 06 0.229

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Wyatt LangfordLF 8635887 0.243 3170.277 43000 11 0.000 0.233 0.287 0.356 OK
Josh Jung3B 215835255 0.305 27980.363 43211 10 0.667 0.286 0.332 0.438 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 243961250 0.260 29930.343 44000 01 0.000 0.211 0.274 0.335 OK
Justin Foscue2B 5918647 0.253 7270.310 44211 01 0.500 0.156 0.207 0.303 OK
Ezequiel DuranSS 172600180 0.300 141100.356 44000 01 0.000 0.205 0.275 0.339 OK
Joc PedersonDH 165494129 0.261 25680.364 44000 00 0.000 0.194 0.295 0.366 OK
Jake Burger1B 223859201 0.234 381480.286 44100 00 0.250 0.180 0.241 0.302 OK
Michael HelmanCF 16427 0.167 000.239 43100 10 0.333 0.192 0.243 0.311 OK
Elias DíazC 000 0.000 000.000 44111 00 0.250 0.189 0.235 0.437
TEAM TOTALS 36337 33 34 0.212

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joey CantilloStarter 1359.94.06 1.5038.456 4.25223286 4.2 2 2
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2828.22.87 1.09913.743 1.1000009 1.1 0 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 1814.03.86 1.4299.014 0.01000015 0.0 0 0
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 1814.21.90 1.26812.720 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Colin HoldermanMiddle Reliever 1920.22.23 0.89112.027 1.01110016 1.0 0 1

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob deGromStarter 1263.53.54 1.02411.178 5.28220695 5.2 6 2
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 2227.60.98 0.5079.529 1.1000004 1.1 0 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 2325.51.76 0.8246.017 1.10000010 1.1 0 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 2721.83.72 1.6518.721 0.20000014 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 3-2


Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

KC 27-39 (3.91 RPG / 4.64 RA)
4 - 2
MIN 30-37 (4.6 RPG / 4.99 RA)
WINNER: KC wins 4-2 TARGET: KC 3 - 2 MIN (KC) Confidence: 56.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
KC10010002047
MIN11000000024

KC Recent Form

Win%0.150
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-171.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.217
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-156.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

KC Season Quality

Record26-39
Win%0.400
Run Diff-49
RD/Game-0.754

MIN Season Quality

Record30-36
Win%0.455
Run Diff-25
RD/Game-0.379

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4569; margin adjustment: 0.1919; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Lane ThomasCF 12335681 0.228 7370.355 55212 00 0.400 0.227 0.351 0.321 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 2521011291 0.288 401130.357 43211 10 0.667 0.257 0.346 0.404 OK
Maikel Garcia3B 238981281 0.286 141010.337 44100 00 0.250 0.289 0.338 0.407 OK
Salvador PerezC 229884195 0.221 421120.273 43011 00 0.000 0.203 0.245 0.315 OK
Starling MarteDH 6018055 0.306 080.358 43110 12 0.333 0.220 0.263 0.296 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 236890176 0.198 241110.295 44000 03 0.000 0.219 0.311 0.358 OK
Nick Loftin2B 7722848 0.211 1500.318 44100 01 0.250 0.210 0.304 0.345 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 188654147 0.225 19440.302 43000 11 0.000 0.195 0.278 0.316 OK
Tyler TolbertLF 8112 0.182 000.308 44000 01 0.000 0.117 0.242 0.174 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37337 44 38 0.212

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 225959257 0.268 841360.328 44111 00 0.250 0.251 0.307 0.500 OK
Brooks Lee3B 216821203 0.247 271270.304 44100 01 0.250 0.211 0.254 0.382 OK
Austin MartinRF 182665190 0.286 10750.384 44100 01 0.250 0.222 0.312 0.316 OK
Josh BellDH 225850189 0.222 211290.286 44000 00 0.000 0.231 0.286 0.345 OK
Kody Clemens1B 175639148 0.232 24720.316 43000 01 0.000 0.197 0.256 0.422 OK
Orlando ArciaSS 268633 0.384 150.411 44000 02 0.000 0.194 0.232 0.308 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 218807195 0.242 5840.322 33111 00 0.333 0.232 0.299 0.306 OK
Victor CaratiniC 15552099 0.190 6760.288 32000 10 0.000 0.240 0.312 0.357 OK
Ryan KreidlerLF 5417544 0.251 9280.325 33000 01 0.000 0.185 0.260 0.354 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 22 16 0.129

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Noah CameronStarter 1158.54.31 1.2828.656 5.24221487 5.2 4 2
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 2422.45.22 1.7868.421 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 2018.44.40 1.2508.317 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 2623.31.93 1.07311.229 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Connor PrielippStarter 839.15.29 1.3559.742 5.03221588 5.0 5 2
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 1611.20.80 1.07114.518 1.02000119 1.0 1 0
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 2719.34.20 1.7628.418 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 2626.04.85 1.6929.327 1.12222021 1.1 0 2
Anthony BandaMiddle Reliever 3120.86.49 1.68311.226 0.20000114 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

KC wins 4-2


Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers

LAA 25-41 (4.41 RPG / 5.18 RA)
1 - 2
LAD 42-24 (5.23 RPG / 3.21 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 2-1 TARGET: LAA 1 - 3 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
LAA00001000014
LAD01000000126

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.228
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-168.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.333
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-72.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAA Season Quality

Record24-40
Win%0.375
Run Diff-52
RD/Game-0.812

LAD Season Quality

Record41-23
Win%0.641
Run Diff134
RD/Game2.094

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 3.3047; margin adjustment: 1.388; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 2621033248 0.240 461270.350 43000 10 0.000 0.221 0.316 0.412 OK
Mike TroutDH 258911227 0.249 631480.419 44100 02 0.250 0.210 0.377 0.395 OK
Wade MecklerLF 268829 0.330 5190.372 44000 02 0.000 0.265 0.314 0.414 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 165573162 0.283 27660.352 44000 01 0.000 0.245 0.276 0.401 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 205823217 0.264 181100.315 44000 03 0.000 0.241 0.282 0.367 OK
Jo AdellRF 242951230 0.242 331340.288 44100 01 0.250 0.199 0.218 0.303 OK
Nick Madrigal3B 7217 0.333 010.333 32000 11 0.000 0.228 0.239 0.341 OK
Jose SiriCF 174010 0.250 270.250 33111 01 0.333 0.195 0.206 0.400 OK
Sebastián RiveroC 4312417 0.137 050.183 33100 02 0.333 0.113 0.164 0.149 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 11 213 0.129

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 245947268 0.283 421560.409 44000 03 0.000 0.353 0.456 0.615 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 236890242 0.272 331280.370 44000 02 0.000 0.313 0.388 0.555 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 235905229 0.253 221220.345 42000 21 0.000 0.252 0.338 0.420 OK
Max Muncy3B 200707186 0.263 54830.362 44000 00 0.000 0.282 0.355 0.490 OK
Alex CallCF 6821156 0.265 0380.386 44100 00 0.250 0.175 0.299 0.246 OK
Dalton RushingC 9733093 0.282 31690.363 44111 01 0.250 0.267 0.327 0.465 OK
Ryan WardLF 62610 0.385 050.385 43200 00 0.667 0.243 0.255 0.318 OK
Miguel RojasSS 9730080 0.267 4350.296 44111 01 0.250 0.240 0.277 0.331 OK
Alex Freeland2B 12339697 0.245 9380.322 33100 01 0.333 0.244 0.320 0.347 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35326 22 29 0.188

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
José SorianoStarter 1373.92.80 1.24510.485 6.021118105 6.0 8 1
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 108.44.29 1.31012.912 0.03000016 0.0 0 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 2225.62.46 1.21110.931 1.00001018 1.0 0 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 2717.02.12 1.76511.121 1.01110116 1.0 1 1

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emmet SheehanStarter 1155.94.67 1.19910.062 5.241108101 5.2 8 1
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 2924.82.54 0.80611.231 1.10001126 1.1 1 0
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 2019.22.34 0.99011.224 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 2716.82.68 1.19015.028 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 2-1


Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies

MIL 40-23 (5.22 RPG / 3.56 RA)
8 - 1
COL 24-42 (4.3 RPG / 5.8 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 8-1 TARGET: MIL 7 - 2 COL (MIL) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIL011050100811
COL00000000117

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.389
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-59.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.183
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-220.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record38-23
Win%0.623
Run Diff91
RD/Game1.492

COL Season Quality

Record24-40
Win%0.375
Run Diff-85
RD/Game-1.328

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -3.1919; margin adjustment: -1.3406; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 97418118 0.282 7340.330 54210 11 0.500 0.287 0.341 0.507 OK
Brice Turang2B 235878254 0.289 361560.409 55312 00 0.600 0.312 0.423 0.558 OK
William ContrerasDH 225909269 0.296 181580.365 53111 21 0.333 0.253 0.317 0.382 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 6823578 0.332 4370.405 54112 01 0.250 0.305 0.349 0.450 OK
Gary SánchezC 11637274 0.199 19570.359 54010 13 0.000 0.201 0.331 0.355 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 172595144 0.242 71070.354 53210 10 0.667 0.238 0.345 0.366 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 172622134 0.215 0640.285 55111 00 0.200 0.174 0.254 0.231 OK
Blake PerkinsRF 7421823 0.106 0230.207 54112 11 0.250 0.080 0.159 0.143 OK
Joey OrtizSS 13542385 0.201 4410.294 55000 01 0.000 0.198 0.296 0.262 OK
TEAM TOTALS 453711 88 68 0.297

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Willi CastroLF 177647167 0.258 9750.319 44100 00 0.250 0.223 0.304 0.352 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 209792173 0.218 10820.265 44000 02 0.000 0.185 0.235 0.304 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 220827230 0.278 301170.357 44000 02 0.000 0.234 0.321 0.366 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 218863212 0.246 58960.314 44111 00 0.250 0.229 0.310 0.528 OK
Kyle Karros3B 187577132 0.229 9550.338 44100 00 0.250 0.255 0.353 0.406 OK
Jake McCarthyCF 145492127 0.258 10690.296 43000 02 0.000 0.243 0.282 0.411 OK
Braxton FulfordDH 214211 0.262 380.360 44200 01 0.500 0.138 0.252 0.218 OK
Chad Stevens2B 20534 0.075 040.222 43100 10 0.333 0.126 0.258 0.178 OK
Troy JohnstonRF 190690226 0.328 10960.389 44100 00 0.250 0.265 0.326 0.381 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 11 17 0.206

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane DrohanStarter 1229.73.03 1.21210.033 5.02001476 5.0 4 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 2323.03.13 1.04311.329 1.11000120 1.1 1 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 2420.74.35 1.35310.023 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 2834.62.60 1.47413.853 1.23110130 1.2 1 1

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle FreelandStarter 1045.98.43 1.7868.443 4.18773397 4.1 3 7
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1831.92.26 1.0978.530 1.11000226 1.1 2 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 2724.97.59 2.12911.933 1.02110121 1.0 1 1
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 2516.44.39 1.89013.224 1.00002121 1.0 1 0
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 3018.86.22 1.8099.119 1.10001121 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 8-1


New York Mets @ San Diego Padres

NYM 29-36 (4.08 RPG / 4.15 RA)
5 - 1
SD 33-31 (3.77 RPG / 4.05 RA)
WINNER: NYM wins 5-1 TARGET: NYM 4 - 1 SD (NYM) Confidence: 56.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
NYM100000004510
SD01000000016

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.357
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-105.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SD Recent Form

Win%0.175
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-136.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record28-35
Win%0.444
Run Diff-8
RD/Game-0.127

SD Season Quality

Record32-30
Win%0.516
Run Diff-15
RD/Game-0.242

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0074; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 208796209 0.263 141000.331 54112 11 0.250 0.250 0.302 0.415 OK
Bo BichetteSS 2501033237 0.229 241360.277 55211 01 0.400 0.252 0.299 0.357 OK
Juan SotoDH 172652194 0.298 461080.393 54011 01 0.000 0.245 0.329 0.435 OK
Jared Young1B 3310032 0.320 380.364 55200 01 0.400 0.184 0.238 0.359 OK
A.J. EwingCF 6823462 0.265 4220.375 43210 10 0.667 0.259 0.357 0.353 OK
Marcus Semien2B 228839196 0.234 22950.283 44200 01 0.500 0.219 0.275 0.397 OK
Brett Baty3B 188675168 0.249 14920.312 44111 01 0.250 0.228 0.278 0.326 OK
MJ MelendezLF 9223956 0.234 8240.352 44000 02 0.000 0.191 0.270 0.360 OK
Luis TorrensC 10130461 0.201 1350.259 43000 12 0.000 0.185 0.219 0.316 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403610 55 310 0.278

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 235906240 0.265 1710.340 44000 03 0.000 0.277 0.332 0.349 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 224874178 0.204 19920.278 44000 00 0.000 0.194 0.260 0.342 OK
Ty France1B 107365106 0.290 20610.327 43100 10 0.333 0.236 0.289 0.413 OK
Manny Machado3B 225815142 0.174 411240.265 44000 02 0.000 0.176 0.252 0.337 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 217801198 0.247 301050.318 44111 00 0.250 0.180 0.261 0.274 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 171650180 0.277 19710.304 43100 10 0.333 0.220 0.242 0.358 OK
Jase BowenRF 381 0.125 000.125 44100 02 0.250 0.196 0.209 0.285 OK
Samad TaylorLF 120 0.000 000.000 44100 01 0.250 0.107 0.123 0.169
Freddy FerminC 11135149 0.140 1150.242 33100 00 0.333 0.126 0.215 0.236 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 11 28 0.182

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Huascar BrazobánStarter 2726.42.73 1.2128.926 5.04112595 5.0 5 1
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 2218.64.84 1.45215.031 1.11000220 1.1 2 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 2625.92.78 1.0429.427 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 2618.91.90 1.53412.927 1.21000028 1.2 0 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Randy VásquezStarter 1263.73.39 1.2567.150 5.15111889 5.1 8 1
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 2624.81.09 0.96818.551 1.10000022 1.1 0 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 2519.91.81 1.3075.913 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 2926.25.50 1.37412.737 1.14442137 1.1 1 4

Game Summary

NYM wins 5-1


Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros

OAK 31-34 (4.2 RPG / 4.86 RA)
5 - 3
HOU 30-37 (4.58 RPG / 5.01 RA)
WINNER: OAK wins 5-3 TARGET: OAK 4 - 3 HOU (OAK) Confidence: 56.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
OAK20300000059
HOU00200100035

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.224
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-154.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.383
Avg Runs1.6
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-165.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record30-34
Win%0.469
Run Diff-48
RD/Game-0.750

HOU Season Quality

Record30-36
Win%0.455
Run Diff-24
RD/Game-0.364

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3651; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CortesRF 156521181 0.347 24750.430 55210 00 0.400 0.217 0.309 0.359 OK
Shea LangeliersC 236980297 0.303 621350.372 55100 02 0.200 0.256 0.315 0.537 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 256927263 0.284 411770.438 55000 02 0.000 0.262 0.422 0.486 OK
Brent RookerDH 167638129 0.202 381290.291 43110 10 0.333 0.215 0.286 0.427 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 230885194 0.219 281140.308 44212 00 0.500 0.251 0.345 0.462 OK
Henry BolteCF 5218558 0.314 0170.373 43212 11 0.667 0.286 0.336 0.380 OK
Zack Gelof3B 142527136 0.258 26730.312 44111 01 0.250 0.219 0.273 0.350 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 195683180 0.264 6580.332 44000 02 0.000 0.217 0.272 0.286 OK
Darell HernaizSS 11737098 0.265 4290.341 43000 12 0.000 0.166 0.250 0.220 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39369 55 310 0.250

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 95393104 0.265 10320.321 44110 01 0.250 0.318 0.361 0.468 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 253936311 0.332 1001930.448 44112 01 0.250 0.335 0.440 0.627 OK
Christian Walker1B 238906249 0.275 671870.349 43111 10 0.333 0.241 0.304 0.443 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 218812197 0.243 291120.338 44100 02 0.250 0.255 0.339 0.532 OK
Jose Altuve2B 188744190 0.255 22620.336 44000 01 0.000 0.244 0.313 0.441 OK
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF 293 0.333 130.333 43000 00 0.000 0.228 0.238 0.321 OK
Taylor TrammellRF 5017258 0.337 0240.384 43000 10 0.000 0.211 0.253 0.347 OK
Jake MeyersCF 7327461 0.223 9260.291 44000 02 0.000 0.211 0.272 0.322 OK
Christian VázquezC 124411111 0.270 16680.327 33100 00 0.333 0.233 0.290 0.363 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 33 27 0.156

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gage JumpStarter 212.03.75 1.1677.510 5.03221486 5.0 4 2
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 3222.73.17 1.93813.133 1.01110116 1.0 1 1
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 2823.35.79 1.54510.427 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 2823.82.65 1.0928.723 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Justin SternerMiddle Reliever 3025.83.84 1.2029.427 1.01001020 1.0 0 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mike BurrowsStarter 1266.75.80 1.5747.757 4.27441693 4.2 6 4
Josh HaderMiddle Reliever 22.00.00 0.50018.04 1.00001218 1.0 2 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 2423.63.05 1.5258.021 1.0100004 1.0 0 0
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 2522.83.55 1.09610.727 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Nate PearsonMiddle Reliever 54.26.43 1.90510.75 0.00000013 0.0 0 0
Steven OkertMiddle Reliever 3024.13.73 1.1629.325 1.1000115 1.1 1 0
Bryan AbreuReliever 2318.08.50 2.27814.028 0.01110016 0.0 0 1

Game Summary

OAK wins 5-3


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves

PIT 34-32 (5.05 RPG / 4.59 RA)
2 - 3
ATL 45-21 (5.21 RPG / 3.45 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 3-2 TARGET: PIT 2 - 3 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 54.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
PIT11000000029
ATL20000100x36

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.286
Avg Runs1.8
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-109.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.291
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-82.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record34-31
Win%0.523
Run Diff31
RD/Game0.477

ATL Season Quality

Record44-21
Win%0.677
Run Diff115
RD/Game1.769

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.5231; margin adjustment: 0.6397; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Spencer Horwitz1B 197661190 0.287 221060.402 54200 10 0.500 0.246 0.363 0.377 OK
Nick Gonzales2B 206828257 0.310 21030.362 55111 01 0.200 0.306 0.347 0.429 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 247899250 0.278 231560.403 54200 10 0.500 0.244 0.370 0.410 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 187723211 0.292 311340.367 54000 11 0.000 0.253 0.327 0.420 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 194780150 0.192 251030.281 44200 01 0.500 0.209 0.280 0.310 OK
Tyler Callihan3B 5104 0.400 040.600 43000 11 0.000 0.146 0.391 0.705 OK
Jake MangumCF 108385104 0.270 1140.329 44000 03 0.000 0.278 0.327 0.370 OK
Jared TrioloSS 8228964 0.221 0110.277 44200 00 0.500 0.195 0.260 0.251 OK
Henry DavisC 12943763 0.144 16470.238 44011 02 0.000 0.142 0.212 0.274 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40369 22 49 0.250

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 198753180 0.239 19810.361 44000 00 0.000 0.280 0.393 0.478 OK
Mauricio DubónCF 222851218 0.256 151270.310 44210 00 0.500 0.291 0.338 0.547 OK
Matt Olson1B 255998272 0.273 702020.354 44111 01 0.250 0.305 0.367 0.562 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 251979272 0.278 401370.337 44212 00 0.500 0.293 0.362 0.503 OK
Dominic SmithDH 124417140 0.336 17840.365 33100 00 0.333 0.260 0.296 0.418 OK
Austin Riley3B 242917201 0.219 311320.292 33000 02 0.000 0.214 0.280 0.347 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 160513113 0.220 9450.304 33000 01 0.000 0.212 0.298 0.319 OK
Jorge MateoSS 7825191 0.363 8290.412 32000 10 0.000 0.224 0.279 0.408 OK
Sandy LeónC 24564 0.071 000.071 33000 01 0.000 0.153 0.163 0.213 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31306 33 15 0.200

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mason MontgomeryStarter 2420.04.95 1.55014.432 4.23221472 4.2 4 2
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2826.72.02 0.78711.534 1.13110026 1.1 0 1
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 2723.84.92 1.5137.921 0.20000116 0.2 1 0
Carmen MlodzinskiMiddle Reliever 1256.93.80 1.4417.849 1.10000010 1.1 0 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryce ElderStarter 1376.12.72 1.1177.967 6.082235112 6.0 5 2
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 2020.20.89 0.99010.724 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 2827.50.65 0.8738.225 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 3128.11.28 0.67612.238 1.00001117 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 3-2


Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers

SEA 34-32 (4.21 RPG / 3.77 RA)
5 - 2
DET 27-39 (3.94 RPG / 4.3 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 5-2 TARGET: SEA 4 - 3 DET (SEA) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SEA000000041511
DET10100000024

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.386
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-92.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.317
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-121.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record34-31
Win%0.523
Run Diff30
RD/Game0.462

DET Season Quality

Record26-39
Win%0.400
Run Diff-25
RD/Game-0.385

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0308; margin adjustment: -0.4329; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Cole Young2B 232822201 0.245 141100.323 55210 00 0.400 0.272 0.330 0.369 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 2551044269 0.258 491330.316 55211 00 0.400 0.246 0.299 0.457 OK
Josh Naylor1B 236942251 0.266 231090.331 54000 11 0.000 0.265 0.321 0.383 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 247914278 0.304 241120.389 44211 01 0.500 0.268 0.344 0.415 OK
Luke RaleyRF 160550160 0.291 471280.346 44112 01 0.250 0.207 0.239 0.424 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 133393107 0.272 24870.336 44100 02 0.250 0.303 0.352 0.582 OK
Patrick Wisdom3B 14433 0.070 160.091 44000 02 0.000 0.111 0.141 0.211 OK
Colt EmersonSS 4113337 0.278 7270.356 44111 02 0.250 0.246 0.303 0.553 OK
Jhonny PeredaC 3511221 0.188 240.289 44200 00 0.500 0.251 0.322 0.353 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393811 55 19 0.289

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kerry CarpenterRF 12238887 0.224 24690.302 44211 00 0.500 0.253 0.316 0.516 OK
Kevin McGonigleSS 246943282 0.299 141070.399 42000 20 0.000 0.267 0.366 0.394 OK
Gleyber TorresDH 149550143 0.260 11540.393 44000 01 0.000 0.285 0.395 0.405 OK
Riley GreeneLF 242884274 0.310 191150.406 44111 01 0.250 0.296 0.382 0.481 OK
Dillon DinglerC 212789193 0.245 521580.332 44000 01 0.000 0.246 0.313 0.529 OK
Colt Keith3B 169548154 0.281 0230.328 44000 02 0.000 0.210 0.259 0.305 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 223775162 0.209 33840.313 33000 01 0.000 0.195 0.279 0.381 OK
Zach McKinstry2B 12138358 0.151 5360.233 33000 03 0.000 0.155 0.255 0.211 OK
Wenceel PérezCF 14249687 0.175 13370.234 33100 01 0.333 0.175 0.233 0.353 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 22 210 0.129

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis CastilloStarter 1253.75.70 1.4909.456 4.24221787 4.2 7 2
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 2421.55.02 1.34914.735 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 1814.60.62 0.8908.614 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 3025.41.77 1.2998.925 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 3023.32.70 1.6749.725 1.0000027 1.0 2 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack FlahertyStarter 1355.15.55 1.67011.470 4.25331788 4.2 7 3
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2725.41.42 1.5356.017 2.00000117 2.0 1 0
Will VestMiddle Reliever 2017.17.89 1.69611.622 1.04110125 1.0 1 1
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 2723.15.45 1.7759.424 1.12110023 1.1 0 1

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-2


San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs

SF 26-39 (4.15 RPG / 4.91 RA)
4 - 6
CHC 34-31 (4.65 RPG / 4.58 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 6-4 TARGET: SF 5 - 6 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 54.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SF00300010047
CHC10200003x68

SF Recent Form

Win%0.203
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-157.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.098
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-183.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

SF Season Quality

Record26-39
Win%0.400
Run Diff-49
RD/Game-0.754

CHC Season Quality

Record34-31
Win%0.523
Run Diff4
RD/Game0.062

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0; margin adjustment: 0.42; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Casey SchmittLF 203808247 0.306 541390.347 55212 00 0.400 0.272 0.291 0.540 OK
Rafael Devers1B 237926234 0.253 301270.301 43000 10 0.000 0.227 0.278 0.407 OK
Luis Arraez2B 234953321 0.337 101020.378 44112 00 0.250 0.315 0.350 0.442 OK
Willy AdamesSS 2401005256 0.255 34970.290 43000 10 0.000 0.260 0.315 0.540 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 202795238 0.299 12770.343 44110 00 0.250 0.362 0.388 0.487 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 5919444 0.227 590.307 43000 03 0.000 0.290 0.365 0.420 OK
Matt Chapman3B 236903205 0.227 8920.318 44110 01 0.250 0.239 0.317 0.438 OK
Daniel SusacC 5820669 0.335 0380.389 44100 00 0.250 0.209 0.267 0.316 OK
Drew GilbertCF 11940098 0.245 9340.296 44100 01 0.250 0.218 0.252 0.347 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 44 25 0.206

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 241888221 0.249 311150.341 55312 00 0.600 0.317 0.376 0.590 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 14544894 0.210 23730.286 54110 10 0.250 0.221 0.288 0.352 OK
Michael Busch1B 255940225 0.239 301580.382 54000 13 0.000 0.264 0.389 0.417 OK
Alex Bregman3B 2621081280 0.259 18830.348 43211 10 0.667 0.221 0.308 0.315 OK
Ian HappLF 246961231 0.240 651540.360 42011 00 0.000 0.257 0.349 0.537 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 189728187 0.257 34900.349 43011 11 0.000 0.263 0.350 0.471 OK
Nico HoernerSS 2621102282 0.256 211620.340 44211 00 0.500 0.227 0.308 0.318 OK
Pedro Ramirez2B 123510 0.286 040.359 43000 10 0.000 0.153 0.231 0.288 OK
Carson KellyC 154567176 0.310 6640.387 44000 01 0.000 0.242 0.299 0.317 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39328 66 55 0.250

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trevor McDonaldStarter 632.64.69 1.1968.631 5.253335110 5.2 5 3
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 2724.74.01 1.41711.331 1.01000017 1.0 0 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 2726.92.68 0.9298.024 1.10000018 1.1 0 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 2115.34.71 1.83015.326 0.02332018 0.0 0 3

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jameson TaillonStarter 1264.85.28 1.2967.957 5.15331393 5.1 3 3
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 1613.52.67 1.40710.015 1.22110116 1.2 1 1
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 2725.12.51 1.43411.833 1.00001019 1.0 0 0
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 1712.24.43 1.55712.517 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 6-4


Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins

TB 37-25 (4.56 RPG / 4.45 RA)
3 - 2
MIA 31-35 (4.18 RPG / 4.48 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 3-2 TARGET: TB 4 - 2 MIA (TB) Confidence: 56.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
TB01001000136
MIA10000000127

TB Recent Form

Win%0.250
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-118.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.298
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-156.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TB Season Quality

Record37-24
Win%0.607
Run Diff10
RD/Game0.164

MIA Season Quality

Record30-35
Win%0.462
Run Diff-23
RD/Game-0.354

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7353; margin adjustment: -0.3088; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 226887284 0.320 331590.399 44000 00 0.000 0.334 0.394 0.510 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 235874250 0.286 441930.383 43000 10 0.000 0.236 0.362 0.392 OK
Richie Palacios2B 122381103 0.270 4600.380 44000 01 0.000 0.178 0.287 0.268 OK
Junior Caminero3B 240944254 0.269 581300.368 44000 00 0.000 0.278 0.386 0.485 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 189701132 0.188 15750.265 44210 01 0.500 0.183 0.263 0.348 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 196714 0.209 6130.284 43213 01 0.667 0.191 0.271 0.302 OK
Ryan ViladeLF 8224683 0.337 8620.398 43110 11 0.333 0.258 0.324 0.446 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 7619849 0.247 1140.318 44100 00 0.250 0.202 0.275 0.254 OK
Taylor WallsSS 149499101 0.202 0540.303 33000 01 0.000 0.205 0.296 0.283 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35326 33 25 0.188

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Liam HicksDH 211751210 0.280 482000.356 54111 10 0.250 0.253 0.350 0.435 OK
Otto LopezSS 240967335 0.346 201090.377 55100 00 0.200 0.326 0.353 0.477 OK
Kyle Stowers1B 147557115 0.206 13450.296 44000 02 0.000 0.202 0.270 0.360 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 246934298 0.319 26850.404 43100 11 0.333 0.283 0.372 0.416 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 10535071 0.203 7610.269 44100 00 0.250 0.226 0.282 0.417 OK
Owen CaissieRF 155485112 0.231 12970.287 43000 10 0.000 0.223 0.306 0.367 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 244898174 0.194 13640.327 44100 01 0.250 0.185 0.311 0.271 OK
Joe MackC 6822348 0.215 1300.262 43111 12 0.333 0.221 0.266 0.336 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 126435125 0.287 5810.326 44100 00 0.250 0.240 0.280 0.383 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 22 46 0.206

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Griffin JaxStarter 1731.24.33 1.4749.232 4.04112479 4.0 4 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 2724.42.21 1.06610.729 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 2526.84.37 1.38111.133 1.11001024 1.1 0 0
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 2723.83.03 1.0087.921 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 1411.43.95 1.57913.417 1.12111027 1.1 0 1

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sandy AlcantaraStarter 1381.44.64 1.3146.357 6.13110499 6.1 4 1
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 1915.68.08 1.66713.323 1.01110119 1.0 1 1
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 2621.03.86 1.04812.028 1.0100106 1.0 0 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 2321.34.23 1.31511.427 0.21111017 0.2 0 1

Game Summary

TB wins 3-2


Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks

WAS 33-33 (5.33 RPG / 5.27 RA)
2 - 3
ARI 34-31 (4.35 RPG / 4.51 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 3-2 TARGET: WAS 2 - 3 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 54.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
WAS00002000028
ARI00002100x35

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.274
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-144.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.322
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-92.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

WAS Season Quality

Record33-32
Win%0.508
Run Diff8
RD/Game0.123

ARI Season Quality

Record33-31
Win%0.516
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.219

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3299; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodDH 2741056304 0.288 771950.429 52000 30 0.000 0.262 0.391 0.514 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 181672187 0.278 231290.299 55000 01 0.000 0.193 0.230 0.427 OK
Curtis Mead3B 152505130 0.257 34920.375 54100 10 0.250 0.206 0.311 0.400 OK
CJ AbramsSS 246935278 0.297 492070.388 54210 10 0.500 0.273 0.350 0.483 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 3715436 0.234 590.267 55100 01 0.200 0.218 0.238 0.352 OK
Daylen LileLF 2541046267 0.255 331270.312 55200 01 0.400 0.261 0.318 0.413 OK
Keibert RuizC 117407106 0.260 18930.280 43112 00 0.333 0.267 0.300 0.458 OK
Jose Fernandez2B 000 0.000 000.000 43000 10 0.000 0.219 0.262 0.306
Jacob YoungCF 199746175 0.235 25930.287 44100 01 0.250 0.222 0.259 0.380 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42358 22 64 0.229

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 231978267 0.273 421510.319 43000 11 0.000 0.222 0.273 0.433 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 231856254 0.297 341300.395 44100 02 0.250 0.267 0.348 0.547 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 131472122 0.258 13740.325 44000 01 0.000 0.232 0.315 0.359 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 202700191 0.273 301180.355 33111 00 0.333 0.228 0.299 0.387 OK
Pavin SmithDH 14345 0.147 050.326 33000 03 0.000 0.203 0.347 0.274 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 7626772 0.270 0280.334 33000 03 0.000 0.189 0.252 0.294 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 226795180 0.226 10810.341 33210 01 0.667 0.259 0.347 0.367 OK
LuJames Groover1B 000 0.000 000.000 33112 01 0.333 0.259 0.337 0.447
Tommy TroyLF 226924 0.348 110.430 33000 00 0.000 0.251 0.338 0.414 OK
TEAM TOTALS 30295 33 112 0.172

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cade CavalliStarter 1362.83.73 1.46510.674 5.05331785 5.0 7 3
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 1615.63.46 1.47410.418 1.20000221 1.2 2 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1937.32.65 1.0728.234 1.10000330 1.1 3 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael SorokaStarter 1265.63.57 1.2209.166 6.260053122 6.2 3 0
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 0.1211003 0.1 0 1
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 0.10001016 0.1 0 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 0.20110112 0.2 1 1

Game Summary

ARI wins 3-2