| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ TOR | 2 - 3 | 2 - 4 | TOR | TOR | TOR wins 4-2 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| BOS @ NYY | 1 - 2 | 0 - 3 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 3-0 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CHW @ PHI | 5 - 7 | 4 - 8 | PHI | PHI | PHI wins 8-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CIN @ STL | 5 - 6 | 3 - 8 | STL | STL | STL wins 8-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CLE @ TEX | 1 - 2 | 2 - 3 | TEX | TEX | TEX wins 3-2 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| KC @ MIN | 3 - 2 | 4 - 2 | KC | KC | KC wins 4-2 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| LAA @ LAD | 1 - 3 | 1 - 2 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 2-1 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| MIL @ COL | 7 - 2 | 8 - 1 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 8-1 | 66% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| NYM @ SD | 4 - 1 | 5 - 1 | NYM | NYM | NYM wins 5-1 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| OAK @ HOU | 4 - 3 | 5 - 3 | OAK | OAK | OAK wins 5-3 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| PIT @ ATL | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 3-2 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| SEA @ DET | 4 - 3 | 5 - 2 | SEA | SEA | SEA wins 5-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| SF @ CHC | 5 - 6 | 4 - 6 | CHC | CHC | CHC wins 6-4 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| TB @ MIA | 4 - 2 | 3 - 2 | TB | TB | TB wins 3-2 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| WAS @ ARI | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 | ARI | ARI | ARI wins 3-2 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| TOR | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.2154; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Taylor Ward | LF | 259 | 951 | 250 | 0.263 | 9 | 74 | 0.407 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.274 | 0.405 | 0.368 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 261 | 1115 | 237 | 0.213 | 54 | 137 | 0.268 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.231 | 0.284 | 0.391 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | DH | 167 | 652 | 175 | 0.268 | 32 | 119 | 0.340 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.349 | 0.506 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 251 | 963 | 235 | 0.244 | 43 | 154 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.270 | 0.344 | 0.487 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | C | 169 | 611 | 165 | 0.270 | 32 | 90 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.318 | 0.431 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | CF | 119 | 336 | 71 | 0.211 | 10 | 45 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.324 | 0.383 | OK |
| Tyler O'Neill | RF | 109 | 322 | 54 | 0.168 | 8 | 30 | 0.285 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.180 | 0.272 | 0.249 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 33 | 106 | 23 | 0.217 | 5 | 19 | 0.294 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.206 | 0.297 | 0.320 | OK |
| Blaze Alexander | 3B | 135 | 445 | 122 | 0.274 | 5 | 56 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.315 | 0.398 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| George Springer | DH | 168 | 683 | 146 | 0.214 | 23 | 65 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.217 | 0.292 | 0.358 | OK |
| Yohendrick Pinango | RF | 86 | 296 | 90 | 0.304 | 9 | 47 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.279 | 0.305 | 0.436 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 233 | 856 | 251 | 0.293 | 12 | 100 | 0.391 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.266 | 0.356 | 0.362 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | LF | 181 | 610 | 169 | 0.277 | 25 | 105 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.203 | 0.231 | 0.315 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 229 | 918 | 280 | 0.305 | 23 | 93 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.303 | 0.321 | 0.478 | OK |
| Brandon Valenzuela | C | 112 | 350 | 95 | 0.271 | 19 | 48 | 0.366 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.350 | 0.488 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 231 | 864 | 194 | 0.225 | 50 | 135 | 0.313 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.336 | 0.449 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 202 | 723 | 165 | 0.228 | 25 | 112 | 0.262 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.217 | 0.240 | 0.344 | OK |
| Myles Straw | CF | 99 | 255 | 63 | 0.247 | 7 | 20 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.143 | 0.216 | 0.219 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shane Baz | Starter | 12 | 69.0 | 4.43 | 1.420 | 8.2 | 63 | 6.1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 105 | 6.1 | 3 | 3 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 28 | 24.0 | 0.75 | 0.667 | 11.2 | 30 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 15 | 10.8 | 8.33 | 1.852 | 11.7 | 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever | 27 | 17.5 | 2.57 | 0.743 | 8.2 | 16 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Anthony Nunez | Middle Reliever | 28 | 27.2 | 4.63 | 1.287 | 11.2 | 34 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kevin Gausman | Starter | 13 | 72.9 | 3.46 | 1.125 | 9.1 | 74 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 30 | 30.3 | 0.30 | 1.056 | 12.8 | 43 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 30 | 26.1 | 2.41 | 1.149 | 5.9 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Braydon Fisher | Middle Reliever | 33 | 30.2 | 2.98 | 1.126 | 11.0 | 37 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
TOR wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | x | 3 | 6 |
Quality edge: 1.7367; margin adjustment: 0.7294; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jarren Duran | LF | 227 | 947 | 204 | 0.215 | 38 | 136 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.269 | 0.385 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 205 | 780 | 221 | 0.283 | 18 | 90 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.312 | 0.400 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 237 | 934 | 263 | 0.282 | 27 | 105 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.330 | 0.413 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 226 | 834 | 238 | 0.285 | 51 | 162 | 0.381 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.289 | 0.373 | 0.535 | OK |
| Masataka Yoshida | DH | 116 | 385 | 100 | 0.260 | 4 | 29 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.179 | 0.262 | 0.271 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | C | 52 | 186 | 62 | 0.333 | 0 | 12 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.302 | 0.354 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 175 | 604 | 116 | 0.192 | 5 | 75 | 0.267 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.220 | 0.263 | 0.348 | OK |
| Anthony Seigler | 2B | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.101 | 0.116 | 0.161 | |
| Marcelo Mayer | SS | 166 | 553 | 119 | 0.215 | 7 | 47 | 0.275 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.158 | 0.214 | 0.212 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 115 | 432 | 122 | 0.282 | 25 | 70 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.338 | 0.514 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 219 | 831 | 250 | 0.301 | 71 | 173 | 0.403 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.307 | 0.405 | 0.631 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 241 | 881 | 240 | 0.272 | 36 | 163 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.263 | 0.368 | 0.421 | OK |
| Amed Rosario | 3B | 96 | 332 | 97 | 0.292 | 27 | 76 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.284 | 0.327 | 0.586 | OK |
| Trent Grisham | CF | 216 | 793 | 168 | 0.212 | 33 | 134 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.342 | 0.418 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | SS | 47 | 159 | 47 | 0.296 | 6 | 36 | 0.431 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.240 | 0.363 | 0.398 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 222 | 839 | 207 | 0.247 | 28 | 94 | 0.327 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.225 | 0.301 | 0.398 | OK |
| José Caballero | RF | 170 | 596 | 163 | 0.273 | 19 | 64 | 0.327 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.286 | 0.387 | OK |
| Ali Sánchez | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.150 | 0.224 | 0.258 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ranger Suarez | Starter | 11 | 57.5 | 3.44 | 1.183 | 8.9 | 57 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 85 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.2 | 0.47 | 0.938 | 12.2 | 26 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 12 | 9.6 | 3.75 | 1.354 | 13.1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cam Schlittler | Starter | 13 | 74.7 | 1.93 | 0.884 | 10.1 | 84 | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 92 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 25 | 23.6 | 4.58 | 1.610 | 11.1 | 29 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 30 | 20.0 | 2.70 | 1.600 | 14.8 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 28 | 19.1 | 4.24 | 1.466 | 6.1 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
NYY wins 3-0
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| PHI | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | x | 8 | 11 |
Quality edge: -0.5469; margin adjustment: -0.2297; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 156 | 552 | 144 | 0.261 | 5 | 60 | 0.373 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.270 | 0.325 | 0.385 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 246 | 911 | 212 | 0.233 | 58 | 151 | 0.365 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.264 | 0.387 | 0.522 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 179 | 661 | 166 | 0.251 | 17 | 106 | 0.293 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.326 | 0.479 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 237 | 894 | 210 | 0.235 | 60 | 156 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.276 | 0.437 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 236 | 913 | 242 | 0.265 | 24 | 89 | 0.338 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.268 | 0.341 | 0.382 | OK |
| Jacob Gonzalez | 1B | 6 | 19 | 6 | 0.316 | 1 | 4 | 0.381 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.259 | 0.328 | 0.390 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 156 | 479 | 141 | 0.294 | 8 | 53 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.299 | 0.386 | OK |
| Drew Romo | C | 66 | 218 | 39 | 0.179 | 18 | 37 | 0.298 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.132 | 0.227 | 0.313 | OK |
| Rikuu Nishida | RF | 16 | 47 | 11 | 0.234 | 0 | 2 | 0.234 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.211 | 0.220 | 0.273 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 247 | 962 | 238 | 0.247 | 99 | 186 | 0.360 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.263 | 0.368 | 0.535 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 248 | 1065 | 247 | 0.232 | 34 | 91 | 0.279 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.234 | 0.284 | 0.345 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 238 | 863 | 237 | 0.275 | 58 | 150 | 0.383 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.367 | 0.458 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 200 | 746 | 254 | 0.340 | 25 | 115 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.349 | 0.377 | 0.563 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 217 | 817 | 178 | 0.218 | 19 | 104 | 0.276 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.280 | 0.374 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 193 | 692 | 151 | 0.218 | 21 | 100 | 0.270 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.257 | 0.332 | OK |
| Adolis García | RF | 221 | 788 | 157 | 0.199 | 14 | 72 | 0.284 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.218 | 0.274 | 0.388 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 180 | 614 | 145 | 0.236 | 8 | 44 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.210 | 0.264 | 0.333 | OK |
| Rafael Marchán | C | 65 | 222 | 18 | 0.081 | 4 | 10 | 0.124 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.117 | 0.134 | 0.169 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 35 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0.314 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tyler Gilbert | Starter | 2 | 2.2 | 24.55 | 3.182 | 8.2 | 2 | 2.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 59 | 2.2 | 3 | 4 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.9 | 1.72 | 1.483 | 9.9 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever | 1 | 2.1 | 8.57 | 1.905 | 4.3 | 1 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Aaron Nola | Starter | 12 | 59.8 | 5.72 | 1.438 | 9.6 | 64 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 94 | 5.0 | 8 | 2 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.2 | 1.34 | 0.842 | 14.7 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 28 | 26.5 | 3.74 | 1.283 | 9.8 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 26 | 21.0 | 2.57 | 1.333 | 10.7 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 27 | 16.9 | 7.46 | 2.189 | 14.4 | 27 | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
PHI wins 8-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| STL | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 8 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.7977; margin adjustment: 0.3351; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Blake Dunn | CF | 60 | 259 | 82 | 0.317 | 6 | 17 | 0.377 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.224 | 0.270 | 0.327 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 120 | 462 | 128 | 0.277 | 34 | 105 | 0.368 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.327 | 0.490 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 3B | 246 | 920 | 228 | 0.248 | 49 | 162 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.337 | 0.392 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | DH | 136 | 454 | 128 | 0.282 | 36 | 93 | 0.373 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.152 | 0.257 | 0.319 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | 1B | 215 | 790 | 210 | 0.266 | 32 | 90 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.252 | 0.346 | 0.477 | OK |
| Will Benson | RF | 95 | 253 | 48 | 0.190 | 6 | 11 | 0.305 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.165 | 0.259 | 0.307 | OK |
| Matt McLain | SS | 219 | 844 | 179 | 0.212 | 23 | 93 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.298 | 0.370 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 164 | 541 | 104 | 0.192 | 17 | 74 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.169 | 0.272 | 0.276 | OK |
| Edwin Arroyo | 2B | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0.200 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.319 | 0.285 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 248 | 973 | 232 | 0.238 | 42 | 117 | 0.359 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.278 | 0.354 | 0.407 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | C | 251 | 955 | 247 | 0.259 | 28 | 117 | 0.384 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.246 | 0.332 | 0.362 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 236 | 952 | 268 | 0.282 | 32 | 164 | 0.347 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.298 | 0.360 | 0.479 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 232 | 908 | 291 | 0.320 | 70 | 202 | 0.385 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.323 | 0.373 | 0.558 | OK |
| Lars Nootbaar | DH | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0.429 | 1 | 3 | 0.500 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.273 | 0.357 | 0.555 | OK |
| Bryan Torres | LF | 26 | 97 | 24 | 0.247 | 0 | 4 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.299 | 0.333 | OK |
| José Fermin | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.256 | 0.320 | 0.407 | |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 205 | 744 | 169 | 0.227 | 25 | 110 | 0.302 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.184 | 0.260 | 0.323 | OK |
| Victor Scott II | CF | 163 | 483 | 84 | 0.174 | 9 | 29 | 0.251 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.284 | 0.275 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Rhett Lowder | Starter | 8 | 37.4 | 5.53 | 1.444 | 6.5 | 27 | 4.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 89 | 4.1 | 2 | 5 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 26 | 21.7 | 5.39 | 1.567 | 9.5 | 23 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 31 | 24.2 | 4.09 | 1.694 | 10.8 | 29 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sam Moll | Middle Reliever | 29 | 22.2 | 3.65 | 1.306 | 11.8 | 29 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever | 12 | 10.6 | 4.25 | 1.321 | 10.2 | 12 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Caleb Ferguson | Middle Reliever | 4 | 5.4 | 0.00 | 0.556 | 11.7 | 7 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael McGreevy | Starter | 12 | 65.4 | 3.03 | 1.116 | 6.1 | 44 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 91 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 28 | 26.7 | 4.04 | 1.236 | 10.1 | 30 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 28 | 22.4 | 4.42 | 1.562 | 11.2 | 28 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 27 | 22.4 | 3.21 | 1.250 | 8.8 | 22 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
STL wins 8-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| TEX | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.2185; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 120 | 440 | 129 | 0.293 | 13 | 54 | 0.400 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.329 | 0.436 | OK |
| José Ramírez | DH | 258 | 958 | 228 | 0.238 | 38 | 130 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.371 | 0.502 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 222 | 861 | 220 | 0.256 | 32 | 149 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.297 | 0.349 | OK |
| Kyle Manzardo | 1B | 175 | 622 | 135 | 0.217 | 18 | 62 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.251 | 0.334 | 0.468 | OK |
| Daniel Schneemann | 3B | 165 | 571 | 138 | 0.242 | 17 | 78 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.303 | 0.337 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | LF | 198 | 761 | 195 | 0.256 | 38 | 119 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.172 | 0.194 | 0.300 | OK |
| Steven Kwan | CF | 236 | 891 | 189 | 0.212 | 4 | 56 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.224 | 0.315 | 0.287 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 28 | 81 | 12 | 0.148 | 3 | 7 | 0.205 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.159 | 0.213 | 0.259 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 211 | 708 | 210 | 0.297 | 15 | 106 | 0.373 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.237 | 0.292 | 0.375 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 86 | 358 | 87 | 0.243 | 3 | 17 | 0.277 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.287 | 0.356 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 215 | 835 | 255 | 0.305 | 27 | 98 | 0.363 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.286 | 0.332 | 0.438 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 243 | 961 | 250 | 0.260 | 29 | 93 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.274 | 0.335 | OK |
| Justin Foscue | 2B | 59 | 186 | 47 | 0.253 | 7 | 27 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.156 | 0.207 | 0.303 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | SS | 172 | 600 | 180 | 0.300 | 14 | 110 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.275 | 0.339 | OK |
| Joc Pederson | DH | 165 | 494 | 129 | 0.261 | 25 | 68 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.295 | 0.366 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 223 | 859 | 201 | 0.234 | 38 | 148 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.180 | 0.241 | 0.302 | OK |
| Michael Helman | CF | 16 | 42 | 7 | 0.167 | 0 | 0 | 0.239 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.192 | 0.243 | 0.311 | OK |
| Elias Díaz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.189 | 0.235 | 0.437 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.212 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Joey Cantillo | Starter | 13 | 59.9 | 4.06 | 1.503 | 8.4 | 56 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 86 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 28 | 28.2 | 2.87 | 1.099 | 13.7 | 43 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.0 | 3.86 | 1.429 | 9.0 | 14 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shawn Armstrong | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.2 | 1.90 | 1.268 | 12.7 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Colin Holderman | Middle Reliever | 19 | 20.2 | 2.23 | 0.891 | 12.0 | 27 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob deGrom | Starter | 12 | 63.5 | 3.54 | 1.024 | 11.1 | 78 | 5.2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 95 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 22 | 27.6 | 0.98 | 0.507 | 9.5 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 23 | 25.5 | 1.76 | 0.824 | 6.0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever | 27 | 21.8 | 3.72 | 1.651 | 8.7 | 21 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
TEX wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
Quality edge: 0.4569; margin adjustment: 0.1919; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Lane Thomas | CF | 123 | 356 | 81 | 0.228 | 7 | 37 | 0.355 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.227 | 0.351 | 0.321 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 252 | 1011 | 291 | 0.288 | 40 | 113 | 0.357 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.257 | 0.346 | 0.404 | OK |
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 238 | 981 | 281 | 0.286 | 14 | 101 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.289 | 0.338 | 0.407 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | C | 229 | 884 | 195 | 0.221 | 42 | 112 | 0.273 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.245 | 0.315 | OK |
| Starling Marte | DH | 60 | 180 | 55 | 0.306 | 0 | 8 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.220 | 0.263 | 0.296 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 236 | 890 | 176 | 0.198 | 24 | 111 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.311 | 0.358 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | 2B | 77 | 228 | 48 | 0.211 | 1 | 50 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.304 | 0.345 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 188 | 654 | 147 | 0.225 | 19 | 44 | 0.302 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.278 | 0.316 | OK |
| Tyler Tolbert | LF | 8 | 11 | 2 | 0.182 | 0 | 0 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.117 | 0.242 | 0.174 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0.212 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Byron Buxton | CF | 225 | 959 | 257 | 0.268 | 84 | 136 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.307 | 0.500 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 216 | 821 | 203 | 0.247 | 27 | 127 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.211 | 0.254 | 0.382 | OK |
| Austin Martin | RF | 182 | 665 | 190 | 0.286 | 10 | 75 | 0.384 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.312 | 0.316 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 225 | 850 | 189 | 0.222 | 21 | 129 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.286 | 0.345 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 1B | 175 | 639 | 148 | 0.232 | 24 | 72 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.256 | 0.422 | OK |
| Orlando Arcia | SS | 26 | 86 | 33 | 0.384 | 1 | 5 | 0.411 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.232 | 0.308 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | 2B | 218 | 807 | 195 | 0.242 | 5 | 84 | 0.322 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.232 | 0.299 | 0.306 | OK |
| Victor Caratini | C | 155 | 520 | 99 | 0.190 | 6 | 76 | 0.288 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.312 | 0.357 | OK |
| Ryan Kreidler | LF | 54 | 175 | 44 | 0.251 | 9 | 28 | 0.325 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.260 | 0.354 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Noah Cameron | Starter | 11 | 58.5 | 4.31 | 1.282 | 8.6 | 56 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 87 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 24 | 22.4 | 5.22 | 1.786 | 8.4 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Strahm | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.4 | 4.40 | 1.250 | 8.3 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 26 | 23.3 | 1.93 | 1.073 | 11.2 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Connor Prielipp | Starter | 8 | 39.1 | 5.29 | 1.355 | 9.7 | 42 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 88 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Middle Reliever | 16 | 11.2 | 0.80 | 1.071 | 14.5 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Taylor Rogers | Middle Reliever | 27 | 19.3 | 4.20 | 1.762 | 8.4 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Eric Orze | Middle Reliever | 26 | 26.0 | 4.85 | 1.692 | 9.3 | 27 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Anthony Banda | Middle Reliever | 31 | 20.8 | 6.49 | 1.683 | 11.2 | 26 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
KC wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| LAD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
Quality edge: 3.3047; margin adjustment: 1.388; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 262 | 1033 | 248 | 0.240 | 46 | 127 | 0.350 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.316 | 0.412 | OK |
| Mike Trout | DH | 258 | 911 | 227 | 0.249 | 63 | 148 | 0.419 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.377 | 0.395 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | LF | 26 | 88 | 29 | 0.330 | 5 | 19 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.314 | 0.414 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | 2B | 165 | 573 | 162 | 0.283 | 27 | 66 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.276 | 0.401 | OK |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | 205 | 823 | 217 | 0.264 | 18 | 110 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.282 | 0.367 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 242 | 951 | 230 | 0.242 | 33 | 134 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.218 | 0.303 | OK |
| Nick Madrigal | 3B | 7 | 21 | 7 | 0.333 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.239 | 0.341 | OK |
| Jose Siri | CF | 17 | 40 | 10 | 0.250 | 2 | 7 | 0.250 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.195 | 0.206 | 0.400 | OK |
| Sebastián Rivero | C | 43 | 124 | 17 | 0.137 | 0 | 5 | 0.183 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.113 | 0.164 | 0.149 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 245 | 947 | 268 | 0.283 | 42 | 156 | 0.409 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.353 | 0.456 | 0.615 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 236 | 890 | 242 | 0.272 | 33 | 128 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.313 | 0.388 | 0.555 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 235 | 905 | 229 | 0.253 | 22 | 122 | 0.345 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.338 | 0.420 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 200 | 707 | 186 | 0.263 | 54 | 83 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.282 | 0.355 | 0.490 | OK |
| Alex Call | CF | 68 | 211 | 56 | 0.265 | 0 | 38 | 0.386 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.175 | 0.299 | 0.246 | OK |
| Dalton Rushing | C | 97 | 330 | 93 | 0.282 | 31 | 69 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.267 | 0.327 | 0.465 | OK |
| Ryan Ward | LF | 6 | 26 | 10 | 0.385 | 0 | 5 | 0.385 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.243 | 0.255 | 0.318 | OK |
| Miguel Rojas | SS | 97 | 300 | 80 | 0.267 | 4 | 35 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.277 | 0.331 | OK |
| Alex Freeland | 2B | 123 | 396 | 97 | 0.245 | 9 | 38 | 0.322 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.244 | 0.320 | 0.347 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0.188 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| José Soriano | Starter | 13 | 73.9 | 2.80 | 1.245 | 10.4 | 85 | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 105 | 6.0 | 8 | 1 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 10 | 8.4 | 4.29 | 1.310 | 12.9 | 12 | 0.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 22 | 25.6 | 2.46 | 1.211 | 10.9 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever | 27 | 17.0 | 2.12 | 1.765 | 11.1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Emmet Sheehan | Starter | 11 | 55.9 | 4.67 | 1.199 | 10.0 | 62 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 101 | 5.2 | 8 | 1 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 29 | 24.8 | 2.54 | 0.806 | 11.2 | 31 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Hurt | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.2 | 2.34 | 0.990 | 11.2 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 27 | 16.8 | 2.68 | 1.190 | 15.0 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
LAD wins 2-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
Quality edge: -3.1919; margin adjustment: -1.3406; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 97 | 418 | 118 | 0.282 | 7 | 34 | 0.330 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.287 | 0.341 | 0.507 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 235 | 878 | 254 | 0.289 | 36 | 156 | 0.409 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.312 | 0.423 | 0.558 | OK |
| William Contreras | DH | 225 | 909 | 269 | 0.296 | 18 | 158 | 0.365 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.253 | 0.317 | 0.382 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B | 68 | 235 | 78 | 0.332 | 4 | 37 | 0.405 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.305 | 0.349 | 0.450 | OK |
| Gary Sánchez | C | 116 | 372 | 74 | 0.199 | 19 | 57 | 0.359 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.331 | 0.355 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 172 | 595 | 144 | 0.242 | 7 | 107 | 0.354 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.238 | 0.345 | 0.366 | OK |
| Luis Rengifo | 3B | 172 | 622 | 134 | 0.215 | 0 | 64 | 0.285 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.174 | 0.254 | 0.231 | OK |
| Blake Perkins | RF | 74 | 218 | 23 | 0.106 | 0 | 23 | 0.207 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.080 | 0.159 | 0.143 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | SS | 135 | 423 | 85 | 0.201 | 4 | 41 | 0.294 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.296 | 0.262 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 45 | 37 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 0.297 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Willi Castro | LF | 177 | 647 | 167 | 0.258 | 9 | 75 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.304 | 0.352 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 209 | 792 | 173 | 0.218 | 10 | 82 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.235 | 0.304 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 220 | 827 | 230 | 0.278 | 30 | 117 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.321 | 0.366 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 218 | 863 | 212 | 0.246 | 58 | 96 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.310 | 0.528 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 187 | 577 | 132 | 0.229 | 9 | 55 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.255 | 0.353 | 0.406 | OK |
| Jake McCarthy | CF | 145 | 492 | 127 | 0.258 | 10 | 69 | 0.296 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.282 | 0.411 | OK |
| Braxton Fulford | DH | 21 | 42 | 11 | 0.262 | 3 | 8 | 0.360 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.138 | 0.252 | 0.218 | OK |
| Chad Stevens | 2B | 20 | 53 | 4 | 0.075 | 0 | 4 | 0.222 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.126 | 0.258 | 0.178 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | RF | 190 | 690 | 226 | 0.328 | 10 | 96 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.265 | 0.326 | 0.381 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shane Drohan | Starter | 12 | 29.7 | 3.03 | 1.212 | 10.0 | 33 | 5.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 76 | 5.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 23 | 23.0 | 3.13 | 1.043 | 11.3 | 29 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.7 | 4.35 | 1.353 | 10.0 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 28 | 34.6 | 2.60 | 1.474 | 13.8 | 53 | 1.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Freeland | Starter | 10 | 45.9 | 8.43 | 1.786 | 8.4 | 43 | 4.1 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 97 | 4.1 | 3 | 7 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 18 | 31.9 | 2.26 | 1.097 | 8.5 | 30 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 27 | 24.9 | 7.59 | 2.129 | 11.9 | 33 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever | 25 | 16.4 | 4.39 | 1.890 | 13.2 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Middle Reliever | 30 | 18.8 | 6.22 | 1.809 | 9.1 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
MIL wins 8-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| SD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.0074; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 208 | 796 | 209 | 0.263 | 14 | 100 | 0.331 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.302 | 0.415 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 250 | 1033 | 237 | 0.229 | 24 | 136 | 0.277 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.252 | 0.299 | 0.357 | OK |
| Juan Soto | DH | 172 | 652 | 194 | 0.298 | 46 | 108 | 0.393 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.329 | 0.435 | OK |
| Jared Young | 1B | 33 | 100 | 32 | 0.320 | 3 | 8 | 0.364 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.184 | 0.238 | 0.359 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 68 | 234 | 62 | 0.265 | 4 | 22 | 0.375 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.259 | 0.357 | 0.353 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 228 | 839 | 196 | 0.234 | 22 | 95 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.219 | 0.275 | 0.397 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 188 | 675 | 168 | 0.249 | 14 | 92 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.228 | 0.278 | 0.326 | OK |
| MJ Melendez | LF | 92 | 239 | 56 | 0.234 | 8 | 24 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.270 | 0.360 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 101 | 304 | 61 | 0.201 | 1 | 35 | 0.259 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.219 | 0.316 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 36 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 0.278 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 235 | 906 | 240 | 0.265 | 1 | 71 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.332 | 0.349 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 224 | 874 | 178 | 0.204 | 19 | 92 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.260 | 0.342 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 107 | 365 | 106 | 0.290 | 20 | 61 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.236 | 0.289 | 0.413 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 225 | 815 | 142 | 0.174 | 41 | 124 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.176 | 0.252 | 0.337 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 217 | 801 | 198 | 0.247 | 30 | 105 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.180 | 0.261 | 0.274 | OK |
| Miguel Andujar | DH | 171 | 650 | 180 | 0.277 | 19 | 71 | 0.304 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.220 | 0.242 | 0.358 | OK |
| Jase Bowen | RF | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0.125 | 0 | 0 | 0.125 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.196 | 0.209 | 0.285 | OK |
| Samad Taylor | LF | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.107 | 0.123 | 0.169 | |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 111 | 351 | 49 | 0.140 | 1 | 15 | 0.242 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.126 | 0.215 | 0.236 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Huascar Brazobán | Starter | 27 | 26.4 | 2.73 | 1.212 | 8.9 | 26 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 95 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 22 | 18.6 | 4.84 | 1.452 | 15.0 | 31 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 26 | 25.9 | 2.78 | 1.042 | 9.4 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 26 | 18.9 | 1.90 | 1.534 | 12.9 | 27 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Randy Vásquez | Starter | 12 | 63.7 | 3.39 | 1.256 | 7.1 | 50 | 5.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 89 | 5.1 | 8 | 1 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 26 | 24.8 | 1.09 | 0.968 | 18.5 | 51 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 25 | 19.9 | 1.81 | 1.307 | 5.9 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 29 | 26.2 | 5.50 | 1.374 | 12.7 | 37 | 1.1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 1.1 | 1 | 4 |
NYM wins 5-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
Quality edge: 0.3651; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carlos Cortes | RF | 156 | 521 | 181 | 0.347 | 24 | 75 | 0.430 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.217 | 0.309 | 0.359 | OK |
| Shea Langeliers | C | 236 | 980 | 297 | 0.303 | 62 | 135 | 0.372 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.256 | 0.315 | 0.537 | OK |
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 256 | 927 | 263 | 0.284 | 41 | 177 | 0.438 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.422 | 0.486 | OK |
| Brent Rooker | DH | 167 | 638 | 129 | 0.202 | 38 | 129 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.215 | 0.286 | 0.427 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 230 | 885 | 194 | 0.219 | 28 | 114 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.251 | 0.345 | 0.462 | OK |
| Henry Bolte | CF | 52 | 185 | 58 | 0.314 | 0 | 17 | 0.373 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.286 | 0.336 | 0.380 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 142 | 527 | 136 | 0.258 | 26 | 73 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.219 | 0.273 | 0.350 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 195 | 683 | 180 | 0.264 | 6 | 58 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.272 | 0.286 | OK |
| Darell Hernaiz | SS | 117 | 370 | 98 | 0.265 | 4 | 29 | 0.341 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.166 | 0.250 | 0.220 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 95 | 393 | 104 | 0.265 | 10 | 32 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.318 | 0.361 | 0.468 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 253 | 936 | 311 | 0.332 | 100 | 193 | 0.448 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.335 | 0.440 | 0.627 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 238 | 906 | 249 | 0.275 | 67 | 187 | 0.349 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.241 | 0.304 | 0.443 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 218 | 812 | 197 | 0.243 | 29 | 112 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.255 | 0.339 | 0.532 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 188 | 744 | 190 | 0.255 | 22 | 62 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.313 | 0.441 | OK |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | LF | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0.333 | 1 | 3 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.238 | 0.321 | OK |
| Taylor Trammell | RF | 50 | 172 | 58 | 0.337 | 0 | 24 | 0.384 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.253 | 0.347 | OK |
| Jake Meyers | CF | 73 | 274 | 61 | 0.223 | 9 | 26 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.272 | 0.322 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 124 | 411 | 111 | 0.270 | 16 | 68 | 0.327 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.233 | 0.290 | 0.363 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gage Jump | Starter | 2 | 12.0 | 3.75 | 1.167 | 7.5 | 10 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 86 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 32 | 22.7 | 3.17 | 1.938 | 13.1 | 33 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | Middle Reliever | 28 | 23.3 | 5.79 | 1.545 | 10.4 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 28 | 23.8 | 2.65 | 1.092 | 8.7 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Sterner | Middle Reliever | 30 | 25.8 | 3.84 | 1.202 | 9.4 | 27 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Mike Burrows | Starter | 12 | 66.7 | 5.80 | 1.574 | 7.7 | 57 | 4.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 93 | 4.2 | 6 | 4 |
| Josh Hader | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.500 | 18.0 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 24 | 23.6 | 3.05 | 1.525 | 8.0 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever | 25 | 22.8 | 3.55 | 1.096 | 10.7 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nate Pearson | Middle Reliever | 5 | 4.2 | 6.43 | 1.905 | 10.7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | Middle Reliever | 30 | 24.1 | 3.73 | 1.162 | 9.3 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Reliever | 23 | 18.0 | 8.50 | 2.278 | 14.0 | 28 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
OAK wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| ATL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 3 | 6 |
Quality edge: 1.5231; margin adjustment: 0.6397; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 197 | 661 | 190 | 0.287 | 22 | 106 | 0.402 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.363 | 0.377 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 2B | 206 | 828 | 257 | 0.310 | 2 | 103 | 0.362 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.306 | 0.347 | 0.429 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 247 | 899 | 250 | 0.278 | 23 | 156 | 0.403 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.244 | 0.370 | 0.410 | OK |
| Ryan O'Hearn | RF | 187 | 723 | 211 | 0.292 | 31 | 134 | 0.367 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.327 | 0.420 | OK |
| Marcell Ozuna | DH | 194 | 780 | 150 | 0.192 | 25 | 103 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.209 | 0.280 | 0.310 | OK |
| Tyler Callihan | 3B | 5 | 10 | 4 | 0.400 | 0 | 4 | 0.600 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.146 | 0.391 | 0.705 | OK |
| Jake Mangum | CF | 108 | 385 | 104 | 0.270 | 1 | 14 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.327 | 0.370 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | SS | 82 | 289 | 64 | 0.221 | 0 | 11 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.195 | 0.260 | 0.251 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 129 | 437 | 63 | 0.144 | 16 | 47 | 0.238 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.142 | 0.212 | 0.274 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 36 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 198 | 753 | 180 | 0.239 | 19 | 81 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.393 | 0.478 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | CF | 222 | 851 | 218 | 0.256 | 15 | 127 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.291 | 0.338 | 0.547 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 255 | 998 | 272 | 0.273 | 70 | 202 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.305 | 0.367 | 0.562 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 251 | 979 | 272 | 0.278 | 40 | 137 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.293 | 0.362 | 0.503 | OK |
| Dominic Smith | DH | 124 | 417 | 140 | 0.336 | 17 | 84 | 0.365 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.260 | 0.296 | 0.418 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 242 | 917 | 201 | 0.219 | 31 | 132 | 0.292 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.280 | 0.347 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 160 | 513 | 113 | 0.220 | 9 | 45 | 0.304 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.298 | 0.319 | OK |
| Jorge Mateo | SS | 78 | 251 | 91 | 0.363 | 8 | 29 | 0.412 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.279 | 0.408 | OK |
| Sandy León | C | 24 | 56 | 4 | 0.071 | 0 | 0 | 0.071 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.153 | 0.163 | 0.213 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Mason Montgomery | Starter | 24 | 20.0 | 4.95 | 1.550 | 14.4 | 32 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 72 | 4.2 | 4 | 2 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 28 | 26.7 | 2.02 | 0.787 | 11.5 | 34 | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 27 | 23.8 | 4.92 | 1.513 | 7.9 | 21 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | Middle Reliever | 12 | 56.9 | 3.80 | 1.441 | 7.8 | 49 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryce Elder | Starter | 13 | 76.1 | 2.72 | 1.117 | 7.9 | 67 | 6.0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 112 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 20 | 20.2 | 0.89 | 0.990 | 10.7 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 28 | 27.5 | 0.65 | 0.873 | 8.2 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 31 | 28.1 | 1.28 | 0.676 | 12.2 | 38 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
ATL wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
Quality edge: -1.0308; margin adjustment: -0.4329; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Cole Young | 2B | 232 | 822 | 201 | 0.245 | 14 | 110 | 0.323 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.272 | 0.330 | 0.369 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 255 | 1044 | 269 | 0.258 | 49 | 133 | 0.316 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.246 | 0.299 | 0.457 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 236 | 942 | 251 | 0.266 | 23 | 109 | 0.331 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.321 | 0.383 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 247 | 914 | 278 | 0.304 | 24 | 112 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.268 | 0.344 | 0.415 | OK |
| Luke Raley | RF | 160 | 550 | 160 | 0.291 | 47 | 128 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.207 | 0.239 | 0.424 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 133 | 393 | 107 | 0.272 | 24 | 87 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.303 | 0.352 | 0.582 | OK |
| Patrick Wisdom | 3B | 14 | 43 | 3 | 0.070 | 1 | 6 | 0.091 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.111 | 0.141 | 0.211 | OK |
| Colt Emerson | SS | 41 | 133 | 37 | 0.278 | 7 | 27 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.303 | 0.553 | OK |
| Jhonny Pereda | C | 35 | 112 | 21 | 0.188 | 2 | 4 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.251 | 0.322 | 0.353 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kerry Carpenter | RF | 122 | 388 | 87 | 0.224 | 24 | 69 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.253 | 0.316 | 0.516 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | SS | 246 | 943 | 282 | 0.299 | 14 | 107 | 0.399 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.366 | 0.394 | OK |
| Gleyber Torres | DH | 149 | 550 | 143 | 0.260 | 11 | 54 | 0.393 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.285 | 0.395 | 0.405 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 242 | 884 | 274 | 0.310 | 19 | 115 | 0.406 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.296 | 0.382 | 0.481 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 212 | 789 | 193 | 0.245 | 52 | 158 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.313 | 0.529 | OK |
| Colt Keith | 3B | 169 | 548 | 154 | 0.281 | 0 | 23 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.259 | 0.305 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 223 | 775 | 162 | 0.209 | 33 | 84 | 0.313 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.279 | 0.381 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | 2B | 121 | 383 | 58 | 0.151 | 5 | 36 | 0.233 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.155 | 0.255 | 0.211 | OK |
| Wenceel Pérez | CF | 142 | 496 | 87 | 0.175 | 13 | 37 | 0.234 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.175 | 0.233 | 0.353 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Luis Castillo | Starter | 12 | 53.7 | 5.70 | 1.490 | 9.4 | 56 | 4.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 87 | 4.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 24 | 21.5 | 5.02 | 1.349 | 14.7 | 35 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Brash | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.6 | 0.62 | 0.890 | 8.6 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Middle Reliever | 30 | 25.4 | 1.77 | 1.299 | 8.9 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever | 30 | 23.3 | 2.70 | 1.674 | 9.7 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Flaherty | Starter | 13 | 55.1 | 5.55 | 1.670 | 11.4 | 70 | 4.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 88 | 4.2 | 7 | 3 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 27 | 25.4 | 1.42 | 1.535 | 6.0 | 17 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Vest | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.1 | 7.89 | 1.696 | 11.6 | 22 | 1.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Holton | Middle Reliever | 27 | 23.1 | 5.45 | 1.775 | 9.4 | 24 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
SEA wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | x | 6 | 8 |
Quality edge: 1.0; margin adjustment: 0.42; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Casey Schmitt | LF | 203 | 808 | 247 | 0.306 | 54 | 139 | 0.347 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.272 | 0.291 | 0.540 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 237 | 926 | 234 | 0.253 | 30 | 127 | 0.301 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.278 | 0.407 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 234 | 953 | 321 | 0.337 | 10 | 102 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.315 | 0.350 | 0.442 | OK |
| Willy Adames | SS | 240 | 1005 | 256 | 0.255 | 34 | 97 | 0.290 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.315 | 0.540 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 202 | 795 | 238 | 0.299 | 12 | 77 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.362 | 0.388 | 0.487 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 59 | 194 | 44 | 0.227 | 5 | 9 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.290 | 0.365 | 0.420 | OK |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 236 | 903 | 205 | 0.227 | 8 | 92 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.317 | 0.438 | OK |
| Daniel Susac | C | 58 | 206 | 69 | 0.335 | 0 | 38 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.267 | 0.316 | OK |
| Drew Gilbert | CF | 119 | 400 | 98 | 0.245 | 9 | 34 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.252 | 0.347 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 241 | 888 | 221 | 0.249 | 31 | 115 | 0.341 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.317 | 0.376 | 0.590 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | DH | 145 | 448 | 94 | 0.210 | 23 | 73 | 0.286 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.288 | 0.352 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 255 | 940 | 225 | 0.239 | 30 | 158 | 0.382 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.389 | 0.417 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 262 | 1081 | 280 | 0.259 | 18 | 83 | 0.348 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.221 | 0.308 | 0.315 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 246 | 961 | 231 | 0.240 | 65 | 154 | 0.360 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.349 | 0.537 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 189 | 728 | 187 | 0.257 | 34 | 90 | 0.349 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.350 | 0.471 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | SS | 262 | 1102 | 282 | 0.256 | 21 | 162 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.227 | 0.308 | 0.318 | OK |
| Pedro Ramirez | 2B | 12 | 35 | 10 | 0.286 | 0 | 4 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.153 | 0.231 | 0.288 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 154 | 567 | 176 | 0.310 | 6 | 64 | 0.387 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.299 | 0.317 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trevor McDonald | Starter | 6 | 32.6 | 4.69 | 1.196 | 8.6 | 31 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 110 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 27 | 24.7 | 4.01 | 1.417 | 11.3 | 31 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 27 | 26.9 | 2.68 | 0.929 | 8.0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Miller | Middle Reliever | 21 | 15.3 | 4.71 | 1.830 | 15.3 | 26 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jameson Taillon | Starter | 12 | 64.8 | 5.28 | 1.296 | 7.9 | 57 | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 93 | 5.1 | 3 | 3 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 16 | 13.5 | 2.67 | 1.407 | 10.0 | 15 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 27 | 25.1 | 2.51 | 1.434 | 11.8 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Thielbar | Middle Reliever | 17 | 12.2 | 4.43 | 1.557 | 12.5 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
CHC wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| MIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.7353; margin adjustment: -0.3088; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 226 | 887 | 284 | 0.320 | 33 | 159 | 0.399 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.334 | 0.394 | 0.510 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 235 | 874 | 250 | 0.286 | 44 | 193 | 0.383 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.362 | 0.392 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 122 | 381 | 103 | 0.270 | 4 | 60 | 0.380 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.178 | 0.287 | 0.268 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 240 | 944 | 254 | 0.269 | 58 | 130 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.386 | 0.485 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 189 | 701 | 132 | 0.188 | 15 | 75 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.183 | 0.263 | 0.348 | OK |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | RF | 19 | 67 | 14 | 0.209 | 6 | 13 | 0.284 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.191 | 0.271 | 0.302 | OK |
| Ryan Vilade | LF | 82 | 246 | 83 | 0.337 | 8 | 62 | 0.398 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.258 | 0.324 | 0.446 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 76 | 198 | 49 | 0.247 | 1 | 14 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.275 | 0.254 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 149 | 499 | 101 | 0.202 | 0 | 54 | 0.303 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.296 | 0.283 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.188 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Liam Hicks | DH | 211 | 751 | 210 | 0.280 | 48 | 200 | 0.356 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.253 | 0.350 | 0.435 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 240 | 967 | 335 | 0.346 | 20 | 109 | 0.377 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.326 | 0.353 | 0.477 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | 1B | 147 | 557 | 115 | 0.206 | 13 | 45 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.270 | 0.360 | OK |
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 246 | 934 | 298 | 0.319 | 26 | 85 | 0.404 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.283 | 0.372 | 0.416 | OK |
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 105 | 350 | 71 | 0.203 | 7 | 61 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.282 | 0.417 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 155 | 485 | 112 | 0.231 | 12 | 97 | 0.287 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.306 | 0.367 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 244 | 898 | 174 | 0.194 | 13 | 64 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.185 | 0.311 | 0.271 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 68 | 223 | 48 | 0.215 | 1 | 30 | 0.262 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.221 | 0.266 | 0.336 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 3B | 126 | 435 | 125 | 0.287 | 5 | 81 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.280 | 0.383 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Griffin Jax | Starter | 17 | 31.2 | 4.33 | 1.474 | 9.2 | 32 | 4.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 79 | 4.0 | 4 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 27 | 24.4 | 2.21 | 1.066 | 10.7 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Seymour | Middle Reliever | 25 | 26.8 | 4.37 | 1.381 | 11.1 | 33 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 27 | 23.8 | 3.03 | 1.008 | 7.9 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | Middle Reliever | 14 | 11.4 | 3.95 | 1.579 | 13.4 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sandy Alcantara | Starter | 13 | 81.4 | 4.64 | 1.314 | 6.3 | 57 | 6.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 99 | 6.1 | 4 | 1 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.6 | 8.08 | 1.667 | 13.3 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Anthony Bender | Middle Reliever | 26 | 21.0 | 3.86 | 1.048 | 12.0 | 28 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever | 23 | 21.3 | 4.23 | 1.315 | 11.4 | 27 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
TB wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 3 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.3299; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | DH | 274 | 1056 | 304 | 0.288 | 77 | 195 | 0.429 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.391 | 0.514 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 181 | 672 | 187 | 0.278 | 23 | 129 | 0.299 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.230 | 0.427 | OK |
| Curtis Mead | 3B | 152 | 505 | 130 | 0.257 | 34 | 92 | 0.375 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.206 | 0.311 | 0.400 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 246 | 935 | 278 | 0.297 | 49 | 207 | 0.388 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.273 | 0.350 | 0.483 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | RF | 37 | 154 | 36 | 0.234 | 5 | 9 | 0.267 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.218 | 0.238 | 0.352 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 254 | 1046 | 267 | 0.255 | 33 | 127 | 0.312 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.261 | 0.318 | 0.413 | OK |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 117 | 407 | 106 | 0.260 | 18 | 93 | 0.280 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.267 | 0.300 | 0.458 | OK |
| Jose Fernandez | 2B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.262 | 0.306 | |
| Jacob Young | CF | 199 | 746 | 175 | 0.235 | 25 | 93 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.259 | 0.380 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 231 | 978 | 267 | 0.273 | 42 | 151 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.273 | 0.433 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 231 | 856 | 254 | 0.297 | 34 | 130 | 0.395 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.267 | 0.348 | 0.547 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 131 | 472 | 122 | 0.258 | 13 | 74 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.315 | 0.359 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 202 | 700 | 191 | 0.273 | 30 | 118 | 0.355 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.228 | 0.299 | 0.387 | OK |
| Pavin Smith | DH | 14 | 34 | 5 | 0.147 | 0 | 5 | 0.326 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.347 | 0.274 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 76 | 267 | 72 | 0.270 | 0 | 28 | 0.334 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.189 | 0.252 | 0.294 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 226 | 795 | 180 | 0.226 | 10 | 81 | 0.341 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.259 | 0.347 | 0.367 | OK |
| LuJames Groover | 1B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.259 | 0.337 | 0.447 | |
| Tommy Troy | LF | 22 | 69 | 24 | 0.348 | 1 | 1 | 0.430 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.338 | 0.414 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 30 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cade Cavalli | Starter | 13 | 62.8 | 3.73 | 1.465 | 10.6 | 74 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 85 | 5.0 | 7 | 3 |
| Clayton Beeter | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.6 | 3.46 | 1.474 | 10.4 | 18 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 19 | 37.3 | 2.65 | 1.072 | 8.2 | 34 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 1.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Soroka | Starter | 12 | 65.6 | 3.57 | 1.220 | 9.1 | 66 | 6.2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 122 | 6.2 | 3 | 0 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.476 | 8.6 | 2 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 7.5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
ARI wins 3-2