| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ TOR | 1 - 2 | 2 - 4 | TOR | TOR | TOR wins 4-2 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| BOS @ NYY | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 2-1 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CHW @ PHI | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 | CHW | CHW | CHW wins 4-2 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CIN @ STL | 3 - 4 | 4 - 5 | STL | STL | STL wins 5-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CLE @ TEX | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | TEX | TEX | TEX wins 4-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| KC @ MIN | 1 - 2 | 1 - 3 | MIN | MIN | MIN wins 3-1 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| LAA @ LAD | 1 - 6 | 2 - 5 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 5-2 | 65% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| MIL @ COL | 6 - 1 | 6 - 2 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 6-2 | 65% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| NYM @ SD | 5 - 3 | 4 - 3 | NYM | NYM | NYM wins 4-3 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| OAK @ HOU | 4 - 3 | 5 - 3 | OAK | OAK | OAK wins 5-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| PIT @ ATL | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 2-1 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| SEA @ DET | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 | SEA | SEA | SEA wins 3-1 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| SF @ CHC | 1 - 3 | 1 - 3 | CHC | CHC | CHC wins 3-1 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| TB @ MIA | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | MIA | MIA | MIA wins 4-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| WAS @ ARI | 2 - 5 | 4 - 5 | ARI | ARI | ARI wins 5-4 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Quality edge: 0.1328; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Taylor Ward | DH | 258 | 948 | 250 | 0.264 | 9 | 74 | 0.408 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.272 | 0.397 | 0.366 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 260 | 1111 | 234 | 0.211 | 54 | 137 | 0.266 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.266 | 0.380 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 166 | 648 | 175 | 0.270 | 32 | 119 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.289 | 0.362 | 0.523 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 250 | 959 | 234 | 0.244 | 42 | 152 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.349 | 0.455 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 156 | 519 | 111 | 0.214 | 23 | 77 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.295 | 0.462 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | CF | 166 | 563 | 154 | 0.274 | 9 | 92 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.196 | 0.280 | 0.309 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | RF | 118 | 334 | 70 | 0.210 | 9 | 44 | 0.298 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.337 | 0.374 | OK |
| Blaze Alexander | LF | 134 | 442 | 121 | 0.274 | 4 | 55 | 0.325 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.312 | 0.363 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 32 | 104 | 23 | 0.221 | 5 | 19 | 0.298 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.219 | 0.314 | 0.338 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| George Springer | DH | 167 | 681 | 146 | 0.214 | 23 | 65 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.284 | 0.357 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 76 | 261 | 85 | 0.326 | 1 | 36 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.308 | 0.332 | 0.438 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 232 | 853 | 251 | 0.294 | 12 | 100 | 0.391 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.345 | 0.356 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | LF | 180 | 606 | 167 | 0.276 | 25 | 105 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.199 | 0.227 | 0.336 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 228 | 914 | 278 | 0.304 | 22 | 90 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.299 | 0.318 | 0.429 | OK |
| Brandon Valenzuela | C | 111 | 347 | 92 | 0.265 | 19 | 47 | 0.362 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.327 | 0.445 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 230 | 860 | 192 | 0.223 | 50 | 134 | 0.313 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.254 | 0.334 | 0.441 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 201 | 719 | 163 | 0.227 | 25 | 111 | 0.261 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.200 | 0.237 | 0.328 | OK |
| Myles Straw | CF | 98 | 252 | 63 | 0.250 | 7 | 20 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.162 | 0.234 | 0.239 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0.219 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Bradish | Starter | 12 | 64.4 | 3.49 | 1.444 | 9.1 | 65 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 108 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 28 | 24.0 | 0.75 | 0.667 | 11.2 | 30 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 15 | 10.8 | 8.33 | 1.852 | 11.7 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever | 27 | 17.5 | 2.57 | 0.743 | 8.2 | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Braydon Fisher | Starter | 32 | 29.2 | 3.08 | 1.096 | 10.8 | 35 | 5.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 74 | 5.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 29 | 29.3 | 0.31 | 1.092 | 13.2 | 43 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 29 | 25.1 | 2.51 | 1.195 | 5.7 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Middle Reliever | 29 | 24.1 | 6.72 | 1.867 | 17.2 | 46 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Mason Fluharty | Middle Reliever | 32 | 17.0 | 4.24 | 1.824 | 16.4 | 31 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
TOR wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| NYY | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 2 | 7 |
Quality edge: 1.7367; margin adjustment: 0.7294; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 205 | 780 | 221 | 0.283 | 18 | 90 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.263 | 0.310 | 0.398 | OK |
| Marcelo Mayer | 2B | 166 | 553 | 119 | 0.215 | 7 | 47 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.167 | 0.223 | 0.224 | OK |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 2B | 75 | 226 | 71 | 0.314 | 4 | 36 | 0.397 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.323 | 0.315 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 226 | 834 | 238 | 0.285 | 51 | 162 | 0.381 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.374 | 0.536 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | C | 52 | 186 | 62 | 0.333 | 0 | 12 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.312 | 0.364 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 175 | 604 | 116 | 0.192 | 5 | 75 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.270 | 0.354 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 237 | 934 | 263 | 0.282 | 27 | 105 | 0.347 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.330 | 0.413 | OK |
| Jarren Duran | LF | 227 | 947 | 204 | 0.215 | 38 | 136 | 0.286 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.203 | 0.264 | 0.375 | OK |
| Masataka Yoshida | DH | 116 | 385 | 100 | 0.260 | 4 | 29 | 0.348 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.179 | 0.261 | 0.270 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trent Grisham | CF | 216 | 793 | 168 | 0.212 | 33 | 134 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.347 | 0.428 | OK |
| José Caballero | SS | 170 | 596 | 163 | 0.273 | 19 | 64 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.300 | 0.410 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 222 | 839 | 207 | 0.247 | 28 | 94 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.307 | 0.408 | OK |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 115 | 432 | 122 | 0.282 | 25 | 70 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.278 | 0.340 | 0.516 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 157 | 512 | 97 | 0.189 | 17 | 32 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.181 | 0.294 | 0.264 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 158 | 527 | 106 | 0.201 | 18 | 67 | 0.261 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.235 | 0.283 | 0.365 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 241 | 881 | 240 | 0.272 | 36 | 163 | 0.378 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.369 | 0.422 | OK |
| Amed Rosario | 3B | 96 | 332 | 97 | 0.292 | 27 | 76 | 0.336 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.284 | 0.327 | 0.587 | OK |
| Ben Rice | 1B | 219 | 831 | 250 | 0.301 | 71 | 173 | 0.403 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.301 | 0.401 | 0.621 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.233 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ranger Suarez | Starter | 11 | 57.5 | 3.44 | 1.183 | 8.9 | 57 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 94 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.2 | 0.47 | 0.938 | 12.2 | 26 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 12 | 9.6 | 3.75 | 1.354 | 13.1 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Will Warren | Starter | 12 | 62.0 | 3.34 | 1.242 | 10.2 | 70 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 101 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 25 | 23.6 | 4.58 | 1.610 | 11.1 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 30 | 20.0 | 2.70 | 1.600 | 14.8 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 28 | 19.1 | 4.24 | 1.466 | 6.1 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
NYY wins 2-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.4365; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 155 | 549 | 144 | 0.262 | 5 | 60 | 0.373 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.265 | 0.314 | 0.377 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 245 | 907 | 211 | 0.233 | 58 | 151 | 0.365 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.249 | 0.368 | 0.504 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 178 | 658 | 165 | 0.251 | 17 | 105 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.317 | 0.470 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 236 | 890 | 209 | 0.235 | 59 | 155 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.213 | 0.269 | 0.425 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 235 | 909 | 240 | 0.264 | 24 | 88 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.257 | 0.333 | 0.374 | OK |
| Jacob Gonzalez | 1B | 5 | 15 | 5 | 0.333 | 0 | 2 | 0.412 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.267 | 0.346 | 0.352 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 155 | 475 | 138 | 0.291 | 8 | 52 | 0.352 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.241 | 0.292 | 0.364 | OK |
| Drew Romo | C | 65 | 215 | 39 | 0.181 | 18 | 37 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.140 | 0.236 | 0.334 | OK |
| Rikuu Nishida | RF | 15 | 45 | 10 | 0.222 | 0 | 2 | 0.222 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.223 | 0.275 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 246 | 958 | 238 | 0.248 | 99 | 186 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.371 | 0.549 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 247 | 1062 | 246 | 0.232 | 34 | 91 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.232 | 0.274 | 0.348 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 237 | 859 | 237 | 0.276 | 58 | 150 | 0.384 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.383 | 0.479 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 216 | 813 | 177 | 0.218 | 18 | 103 | 0.276 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.289 | 0.340 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 199 | 742 | 252 | 0.340 | 24 | 114 | 0.370 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.339 | 0.371 | 0.514 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 136 | 474 | 117 | 0.247 | 10 | 42 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.275 | 0.346 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 192 | 689 | 151 | 0.219 | 21 | 100 | 0.270 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.263 | 0.382 | OK |
| Adolis García | RF | 220 | 784 | 156 | 0.199 | 14 | 71 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.213 | 0.271 | 0.390 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 179 | 612 | 145 | 0.237 | 8 | 44 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.278 | 0.348 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brandon Eisert | Starter | 12 | 11.5 | 3.91 | 1.391 | 10.2 | 13 | 3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 55 | 3.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.9 | 1.72 | 1.483 | 9.9 | 23 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever | 1 | 2.1 | 8.57 | 1.905 | 4.3 | 1 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Painter | Starter | 11 | 51.7 | 5.92 | 1.567 | 7.5 | 43 | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 87 | 5.0 | 5 | 4 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.2 | 1.34 | 0.842 | 14.7 | 33 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 28 | 26.5 | 3.74 | 1.283 | 9.8 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 26 | 21.0 | 2.57 | 1.333 | 10.7 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 27 | 16.9 | 7.46 | 2.189 | 14.4 | 27 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
CHW wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.5098; margin adjustment: 0.2141; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Dane Myers | CF | 95 | 258 | 65 | 0.252 | 15 | 41 | 0.381 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.285 | 0.304 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | DH | 119 | 457 | 127 | 0.278 | 34 | 104 | 0.370 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.336 | 0.516 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | 2B | 214 | 788 | 210 | 0.266 | 32 | 89 | 0.342 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.274 | 0.353 | 0.503 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 245 | 915 | 228 | 0.249 | 49 | 162 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.359 | 0.415 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | 3B | 125 | 458 | 106 | 0.231 | 11 | 54 | 0.308 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.291 | 0.337 | OK |
| Blake Dunn | LF | 59 | 255 | 79 | 0.310 | 6 | 17 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.255 | 0.301 | OK |
| Noelvi Marte | RF | 32 | 99 | 15 | 0.152 | 0 | 0 | 0.215 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.174 | 0.230 | 0.217 | OK |
| Matt McLain | SS | 218 | 841 | 178 | 0.212 | 22 | 91 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.194 | 0.287 | 0.307 | OK |
| P.J. Higgins | C | 19 | 53 | 14 | 0.264 | 0 | 6 | 0.288 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.234 | 0.274 | 0.308 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Masyn Winn | SS | 206 | 793 | 182 | 0.230 | 6 | 92 | 0.298 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.297 | 0.344 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 250 | 951 | 246 | 0.259 | 28 | 117 | 0.385 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.343 | 0.367 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 231 | 904 | 289 | 0.320 | 69 | 201 | 0.385 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.310 | 0.360 | 0.512 | OK |
| Nelson Velázquez | LF | 5 | 13 | 6 | 0.462 | 1 | 4 | 0.533 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 0.352 | 0.516 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 235 | 949 | 267 | 0.281 | 32 | 164 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.291 | 0.352 | 0.472 | OK |
| José Fermín | LF | 75 | 211 | 43 | 0.204 | 5 | 26 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.153 | 0.224 | 0.257 | OK |
| Bryan Torres | 2B | 25 | 94 | 23 | 0.245 | 0 | 4 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.219 | 0.302 | 0.344 | OK |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 128 | 445 | 102 | 0.229 | 16 | 36 | 0.269 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.231 | 0.261 | 0.372 | OK |
| Victor Scott II | CF | 162 | 481 | 83 | 0.173 | 9 | 28 | 0.250 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.193 | 0.278 | 0.268 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 33 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0.242 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nick Lodolo | Starter | 5 | 26.5 | 5.43 | 1.434 | 7.5 | 22 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 94 | 5.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 25 | 21.6 | 5.42 | 1.574 | 9.2 | 22 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 31 | 24.2 | 4.09 | 1.694 | 10.8 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Moll | Middle Reliever | 28 | 21.2 | 2.97 | 1.274 | 11.9 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever | 11 | 9.4 | 4.79 | 1.277 | 9.6 | 10 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 0.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Matthew Liberatore | Starter | 12 | 60.6 | 4.46 | 1.535 | 8.5 | 57 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 105 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 27 | 25.7 | 4.20 | 1.167 | 10.2 | 29 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 28 | 22.4 | 4.42 | 1.562 | 11.2 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 26 | 21.4 | 3.36 | 1.262 | 9.3 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever | 27 | 19.9 | 6.33 | 2.060 | 14.0 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
STL wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.0665; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 119 | 435 | 129 | 0.297 | 13 | 53 | 0.404 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.331 | 0.438 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 257 | 955 | 227 | 0.238 | 37 | 129 | 0.351 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.257 | 0.348 | 0.450 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | DH | 221 | 856 | 218 | 0.255 | 32 | 148 | 0.331 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.232 | 0.301 | 0.357 | OK |
| Kyle Manzardo | 1B | 174 | 619 | 134 | 0.216 | 18 | 61 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.241 | 0.310 | 0.450 | OK |
| Daniel Schneemann | CF | 164 | 566 | 136 | 0.240 | 17 | 77 | 0.328 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.219 | 0.302 | 0.336 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | RF | 197 | 757 | 195 | 0.258 | 38 | 119 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.180 | 0.202 | 0.316 | OK |
| Steven Kwan | LF | 235 | 887 | 188 | 0.212 | 4 | 56 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.317 | 0.287 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 27 | 77 | 12 | 0.156 | 3 | 7 | 0.214 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.167 | 0.223 | 0.267 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 210 | 704 | 208 | 0.295 | 14 | 105 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.294 | 0.344 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joc Pederson | DH | 164 | 491 | 129 | 0.263 | 25 | 68 | 0.366 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.205 | 0.316 | 0.386 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 183 | 684 | 125 | 0.183 | 33 | 91 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.167 | 0.257 | 0.338 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 214 | 831 | 254 | 0.306 | 27 | 98 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.297 | 0.348 | 0.461 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 242 | 959 | 250 | 0.261 | 29 | 93 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.214 | 0.269 | 0.339 | OK |
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 85 | 356 | 87 | 0.244 | 3 | 17 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.287 | 0.370 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | 2B | 171 | 597 | 180 | 0.302 | 14 | 110 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.225 | 0.293 | 0.380 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 222 | 856 | 201 | 0.235 | 38 | 148 | 0.287 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.270 | 0.333 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 198 | 637 | 117 | 0.184 | 25 | 69 | 0.300 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.138 | 0.242 | 0.260 | OK |
| Kyle Higashioka | C | 96 | 326 | 65 | 0.199 | 12 | 35 | 0.287 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.287 | 0.333 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tanner Bibee | Starter | 13 | 67.6 | 4.66 | 1.331 | 8.0 | 60 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 93 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 28 | 28.2 | 2.87 | 1.099 | 13.7 | 43 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.0 | 3.86 | 1.429 | 9.0 | 14 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shawn Armstrong | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.2 | 1.90 | 1.268 | 12.7 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Leiter | Starter | 12 | 64.0 | 4.50 | 1.375 | 10.4 | 74 | 5.2 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 103 | 5.2 | 2 | 3 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 22 | 27.6 | 0.98 | 0.507 | 9.5 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 23 | 25.5 | 1.76 | 0.824 | 6.0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever | 27 | 21.8 | 3.72 | 1.651 | 8.7 | 21 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jalen Beeks | Middle Reliever | 28 | 20.2 | 4.46 | 1.634 | 9.4 | 21 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
TEX wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| MIN | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 3 | 5 |
Quality edge: 0.4401; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | C | 193 | 665 | 152 | 0.229 | 24 | 103 | 0.315 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.260 | 0.312 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 251 | 1006 | 289 | 0.287 | 40 | 112 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.341 | 0.403 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 235 | 885 | 174 | 0.197 | 24 | 111 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.311 | 0.358 | OK |
| Maikel Garcia | DH | 237 | 977 | 280 | 0.287 | 14 | 101 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.294 | 0.343 | 0.421 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 187 | 653 | 147 | 0.225 | 19 | 44 | 0.302 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.293 | 0.359 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 121 | 385 | 95 | 0.247 | 13 | 53 | 0.263 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.232 | 0.254 | 0.421 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 185 | 609 | 136 | 0.223 | 11 | 71 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.322 | 0.289 | OK |
| Josh Rojas | 3B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.120 | 0.135 | 0.182 | LARGE |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 159 | 519 | 136 | 0.262 | 11 | 42 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.220 | 0.259 | 0.313 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 162 | 564 | 154 | 0.273 | 9 | 57 | 0.377 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.313 | 0.317 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 215 | 817 | 203 | 0.248 | 27 | 127 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.224 | 0.271 | 0.394 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 1B | 174 | 635 | 147 | 0.231 | 24 | 72 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.196 | 0.257 | 0.416 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 224 | 846 | 189 | 0.223 | 21 | 129 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.311 | 0.386 | OK |
| Austin Martin | RF | 181 | 662 | 189 | 0.285 | 10 | 75 | 0.384 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.308 | 0.320 | OK |
| Victor Caratini | C | 154 | 518 | 98 | 0.189 | 6 | 76 | 0.285 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.314 | 0.352 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 2B | 119 | 403 | 67 | 0.166 | 12 | 53 | 0.263 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.182 | 0.258 | 0.286 | OK |
| Tristan Gray | SS | 102 | 332 | 78 | 0.235 | 14 | 69 | 0.281 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.280 | 0.312 | 0.453 | OK |
| Ryan Kreidler | CF | 53 | 173 | 44 | 0.254 | 9 | 28 | 0.325 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.261 | 0.370 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0.179 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Luinder Avila | Starter | 11 | 26.1 | 4.48 | 1.724 | 8.6 | 25 | 4.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 83 | 4.1 | 7 | 3 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 23 | 21.4 | 5.47 | 1.822 | 8.4 | 20 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Strahm | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.4 | 4.14 | 1.264 | 8.8 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 25 | 22.3 | 2.02 | 1.121 | 11.7 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| John Schreiber | Middle Reliever | 27 | 20.6 | 3.50 | 1.553 | 7.0 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Joe Ryan | Starter | 13 | 69.4 | 3.24 | 0.980 | 10.2 | 79 | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 93 | 6.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Middle Reliever | 15 | 11.0 | 0.82 | 1.000 | 14.7 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taylor Rogers | Middle Reliever | 26 | 18.2 | 4.45 | 1.868 | 8.4 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Eric Orze | Middle Reliever | 25 | 25.0 | 4.32 | 1.680 | 9.7 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
MIN wins 3-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| LAD | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: 3.3016; margin adjustment: 1.3867; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 261 | 1029 | 247 | 0.240 | 45 | 126 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.327 | 0.397 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 257 | 908 | 227 | 0.250 | 63 | 148 | 0.420 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.385 | 0.413 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | LF | 25 | 84 | 28 | 0.333 | 5 | 19 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.282 | 0.332 | 0.462 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | 2B | 164 | 570 | 161 | 0.282 | 27 | 65 | 0.352 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.278 | 0.393 | OK |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | 204 | 820 | 217 | 0.265 | 18 | 110 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.295 | 0.378 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 241 | 948 | 230 | 0.243 | 33 | 134 | 0.289 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.233 | 0.321 | OK |
| Nick Madrigal | DH | 6 | 18 | 7 | 0.389 | 0 | 1 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.242 | 0.252 | 0.362 | OK |
| Donovan Walton | 3B | 26 | 101 | 26 | 0.257 | 0 | 1 | 0.292 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.222 | 0.260 | 0.322 | OK |
| Logan O'Hoppe | C | 127 | 432 | 96 | 0.222 | 5 | 48 | 0.315 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.263 | 0.301 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 244 | 943 | 266 | 0.282 | 41 | 154 | 0.408 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.337 | 0.438 | 0.558 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 234 | 895 | 278 | 0.311 | 58 | 222 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.324 | 0.491 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 235 | 888 | 241 | 0.271 | 33 | 128 | 0.369 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.296 | 0.372 | 0.533 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 99 | 421 | 75 | 0.178 | 29 | 73 | 0.226 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.189 | 0.240 | 0.332 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 199 | 704 | 184 | 0.261 | 54 | 83 | 0.360 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.252 | 0.329 | 0.461 | OK |
| Ryan Ward | LF | 6 | 26 | 10 | 0.385 | 0 | 5 | 0.385 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.251 | 0.263 | 0.326 | OK |
| Alex Call | RF | 67 | 208 | 56 | 0.269 | 0 | 38 | 0.388 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.308 | 0.274 | OK |
| Dalton Rushing | C | 96 | 327 | 93 | 0.284 | 31 | 69 | 0.364 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.271 | 0.323 | 0.476 | OK |
| Alex Freeland | 2B | 122 | 392 | 97 | 0.247 | 9 | 37 | 0.325 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.358 | 0.435 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 30 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0.233 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Kochanowicz | Starter | 12 | 61.8 | 5.39 | 1.521 | 6.7 | 46 | 4.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 4.1 | 2 | 5 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 10 | 8.4 | 4.29 | 1.310 | 12.9 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 22 | 25.6 | 2.46 | 1.211 | 10.9 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever | 27 | 17.0 | 2.12 | 1.765 | 11.1 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.8 | 6.43 | 1.905 | 8.0 | 15 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 23 | 25.1 | 6.45 | 1.554 | 11.5 | 32 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Starter | 11 | 68.4 | 2.89 | 1.009 | 9.1 | 69 | 6.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 101 | 6.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 29 | 24.8 | 2.54 | 0.806 | 11.2 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hurt | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.2 | 2.34 | 0.990 | 11.2 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 27 | 16.8 | 2.68 | 1.190 | 15.0 | 28 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
LAD wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 10 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
Quality edge: -3.1544; margin adjustment: -1.3248; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Christian Yelich | DH | 105 | 409 | 119 | 0.291 | 15 | 63 | 0.356 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.296 | 0.361 | 0.454 | OK |
| Jackson Chourio | CF | 96 | 413 | 118 | 0.286 | 7 | 34 | 0.334 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.310 | 0.371 | 0.540 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 234 | 873 | 252 | 0.289 | 34 | 154 | 0.409 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.316 | 0.434 | 0.500 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 224 | 904 | 267 | 0.295 | 17 | 157 | 0.365 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.307 | 0.330 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | LF | 187 | 703 | 201 | 0.286 | 36 | 136 | 0.360 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.273 | 0.372 | 0.507 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B | 67 | 231 | 77 | 0.333 | 4 | 37 | 0.408 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.322 | 0.366 | 0.481 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 192 | 696 | 157 | 0.226 | 14 | 70 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.339 | 0.376 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | SS | 134 | 418 | 84 | 0.201 | 4 | 41 | 0.295 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.204 | 0.305 | 0.271 | OK |
| David Hamilton | 3B | 149 | 478 | 112 | 0.234 | 2 | 33 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.233 | 0.326 | 0.349 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | CF | 144 | 487 | 126 | 0.259 | 10 | 69 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.288 | 0.426 | OK |
| Tyler Freeman | RF | 141 | 520 | 130 | 0.250 | 11 | 60 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.269 | 0.334 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 219 | 824 | 230 | 0.279 | 30 | 117 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.320 | 0.375 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | DH | 217 | 860 | 212 | 0.247 | 58 | 96 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.303 | 0.526 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | LF | 189 | 687 | 225 | 0.328 | 10 | 96 | 0.389 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.284 | 0.338 | 0.408 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 208 | 788 | 173 | 0.220 | 10 | 82 | 0.267 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.243 | 0.310 | OK |
| Edouard Julien | 2B | 155 | 535 | 121 | 0.226 | 10 | 61 | 0.327 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.235 | 0.354 | 0.321 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 186 | 574 | 130 | 0.226 | 9 | 54 | 0.335 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.338 | 0.379 | OK |
| Brett Sullivan | C | 84 | 280 | 56 | 0.200 | 2 | 32 | 0.245 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.150 | 0.184 | 0.319 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Misiorowski | Starter | 12 | 70.3 | 1.66 | 0.797 | 13.8 | 108 | 6.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 90 | 6.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 23 | 23.0 | 3.13 | 1.043 | 11.3 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.7 | 4.35 | 1.353 | 10.0 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 28 | 34.6 | 2.60 | 1.474 | 13.8 | 53 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zach Agnos | Starter | 16 | 35.6 | 8.09 | 1.629 | 6.8 | 27 | 3.2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 71 | 3.2 | 3 | 3 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 18 | 31.9 | 2.26 | 1.097 | 8.5 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 26 | 23.9 | 7.91 | 2.176 | 12.1 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever | 25 | 16.4 | 4.39 | 1.890 | 13.2 | 24 | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 50 | 2.0 | 1 | 2 |
MIL wins 6-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.1794; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 207 | 792 | 208 | 0.263 | 14 | 100 | 0.331 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.306 | 0.435 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 249 | 1029 | 236 | 0.229 | 24 | 136 | 0.277 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.247 | 0.299 | 0.352 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 171 | 648 | 194 | 0.299 | 46 | 108 | 0.395 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.267 | 0.348 | 0.488 | OK |
| Jared Young | 1B | 32 | 96 | 32 | 0.333 | 3 | 8 | 0.379 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.256 | 0.383 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 227 | 836 | 194 | 0.232 | 21 | 94 | 0.281 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.219 | 0.279 | 0.389 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 67 | 232 | 61 | 0.263 | 4 | 22 | 0.369 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.340 | 0.343 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | DH | 183 | 678 | 153 | 0.226 | 25 | 98 | 0.265 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.160 | 0.189 | 0.275 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 187 | 672 | 167 | 0.249 | 14 | 91 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.226 | 0.278 | 0.325 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 100 | 301 | 61 | 0.203 | 1 | 35 | 0.262 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.228 | 0.331 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 38 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | 234 | 902 | 238 | 0.264 | 1 | 70 | 0.339 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.312 | 0.324 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 223 | 870 | 178 | 0.205 | 19 | 92 | 0.279 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.283 | 0.367 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 106 | 362 | 106 | 0.293 | 20 | 61 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.293 | 0.439 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 224 | 811 | 142 | 0.175 | 41 | 124 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.176 | 0.250 | 0.337 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | LF | 176 | 597 | 147 | 0.246 | 33 | 87 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.190 | 0.282 | 0.382 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 216 | 799 | 198 | 0.248 | 30 | 105 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.194 | 0.270 | 0.288 | OK |
| Miguel Andujar | DH | 170 | 647 | 180 | 0.278 | 19 | 71 | 0.305 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.227 | 0.255 | 0.369 | OK |
| Sung-Mun Song | 2B | 28 | 71 | 13 | 0.183 | 0 | 14 | 0.293 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.114 | 0.229 | 0.194 | OK |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 110 | 349 | 48 | 0.138 | 0 | 13 | 0.241 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.114 | 0.208 | 0.169 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0.188 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nolan McLean | Starter | 12 | 64.7 | 4.31 | 1.144 | 10.7 | 77 | 5.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 93 | 5.2 | 7 | 1 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 22 | 18.6 | 4.84 | 1.452 | 15.0 | 31 | 2.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 2.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 26 | 25.9 | 2.78 | 1.042 | 9.4 | 27 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Griffin Canning | Starter | 6 | 26.5 | 7.47 | 1.623 | 9.2 | 27 | 4.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 87 | 4.2 | 6 | 4 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 25 | 23.8 | 1.13 | 0.966 | 18.9 | 50 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 24 | 18.9 | 1.90 | 1.270 | 6.2 | 13 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 28 | 25.2 | 5.71 | 1.429 | 12.5 | 35 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron Marinaccio | Middle Reliever | 21 | 29.9 | 4.21 | 1.338 | 8.1 | 27 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
NYM wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| HOU | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.1467; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carlos Cortes | RF | 155 | 516 | 179 | 0.347 | 24 | 75 | 0.430 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.219 | 0.311 | 0.361 | OK |
| Shea Langeliers | C | 235 | 975 | 296 | 0.304 | 62 | 135 | 0.372 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.258 | 0.317 | 0.541 | OK |
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 255 | 924 | 263 | 0.285 | 41 | 177 | 0.439 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.424 | 0.489 | OK |
| Brent Rooker | DH | 166 | 634 | 128 | 0.202 | 38 | 129 | 0.291 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.217 | 0.288 | 0.430 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 229 | 883 | 193 | 0.219 | 28 | 113 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.253 | 0.347 | 0.465 | OK |
| Henry Bolte | CF | 51 | 183 | 58 | 0.317 | 0 | 17 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.288 | 0.339 | 0.383 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 141 | 524 | 135 | 0.258 | 26 | 72 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.221 | 0.275 | 0.353 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 194 | 680 | 180 | 0.265 | 6 | 58 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.219 | 0.274 | 0.288 | OK |
| Darell Hernaiz | SS | 116 | 366 | 98 | 0.268 | 4 | 29 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.168 | 0.252 | 0.222 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 94 | 389 | 103 | 0.265 | 10 | 30 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.315 | 0.358 | 0.465 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 252 | 933 | 310 | 0.332 | 99 | 189 | 0.447 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.332 | 0.437 | 0.622 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 237 | 902 | 247 | 0.274 | 67 | 187 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.302 | 0.440 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 217 | 809 | 195 | 0.241 | 29 | 111 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.336 | 0.527 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 187 | 742 | 189 | 0.255 | 21 | 61 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.242 | 0.311 | 0.437 | OK |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | LF | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.236 | 0.318 | |
| Taylor Trammell | RF | 49 | 169 | 57 | 0.337 | 0 | 24 | 0.381 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.251 | 0.345 | OK |
| Jake Meyers | CF | 72 | 270 | 60 | 0.222 | 9 | 25 | 0.291 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.209 | 0.270 | 0.320 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 123 | 407 | 109 | 0.268 | 16 | 67 | 0.326 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.231 | 0.287 | 0.360 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Morris | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 4.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 75 | 4.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 32 | 22.7 | 3.17 | 1.938 | 13.1 | 33 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | Middle Reliever | 28 | 23.3 | 5.79 | 1.545 | 10.4 | 27 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 28 | 23.8 | 2.65 | 1.092 | 8.7 | 23 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Justin Sterner | Middle Reliever | 30 | 25.8 | 3.84 | 1.202 | 9.4 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tatsuya Imai | Starter | 7 | 27.7 | 5.85 | 1.444 | 9.1 | 28 | 4.1 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 81 | 4.1 | 5 | 5 |
| Josh Hader | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.500 | 18.0 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 24 | 23.6 | 3.05 | 1.525 | 8.0 | 21 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever | 25 | 22.8 | 3.55 | 1.096 | 10.7 | 27 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Nate Pearson | Middle Reliever | 5 | 4.2 | 6.43 | 1.905 | 10.7 | 5 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | Middle Reliever | 30 | 24.1 | 3.73 | 1.162 | 9.3 | 25 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
OAK wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 2 | 7 |
Quality edge: 1.4297; margin adjustment: 0.6005; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 196 | 656 | 189 | 0.288 | 22 | 106 | 0.404 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.365 | 0.385 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | DH | 227 | 900 | 242 | 0.269 | 66 | 182 | 0.360 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.306 | 0.455 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 246 | 895 | 249 | 0.278 | 23 | 156 | 0.404 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.369 | 0.400 | OK |
| Ryan O'Hearn | RF | 186 | 719 | 210 | 0.292 | 31 | 134 | 0.368 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.270 | 0.344 | 0.477 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 2B | 205 | 824 | 255 | 0.309 | 2 | 102 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.298 | 0.344 | 0.434 | OK |
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 251 | 1064 | 286 | 0.269 | 55 | 178 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.365 | 0.465 | OK |
| Endy Rodríguez | C | 27 | 81 | 21 | 0.259 | 1 | 11 | 0.412 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.219 | 0.367 | 0.373 | OK |
| Tyler Callihan | 3B | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0.429 | 0 | 3 | 0.636 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.139 | 0.408 | 0.745 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | SS | 81 | 286 | 63 | 0.220 | 0 | 11 | 0.276 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.263 | 0.254 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 197 | 749 | 178 | 0.238 | 19 | 81 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.273 | 0.395 | 0.498 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | CF | 221 | 847 | 216 | 0.255 | 15 | 127 | 0.310 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.266 | 0.320 | 0.525 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 254 | 994 | 271 | 0.273 | 70 | 202 | 0.355 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.291 | 0.354 | 0.550 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 250 | 978 | 272 | 0.278 | 40 | 135 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.293 | 0.357 | 0.495 | OK |
| Dominic Smith | DH | 123 | 414 | 138 | 0.333 | 16 | 82 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.295 | 0.383 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 241 | 913 | 199 | 0.218 | 31 | 131 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.196 | 0.264 | 0.319 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 159 | 510 | 113 | 0.222 | 9 | 45 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.319 | 0.343 | OK |
| Austin Wynns | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.115 | 0.185 | 0.149 | |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 49 | 176 | 18 | 0.102 | 0 | 11 | 0.194 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.139 | 0.216 | 0.171 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Braxton Ashcraft | Starter | 12 | 72.8 | 2.84 | 1.058 | 10.0 | 81 | 6.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 111 | 6.1 | 7 | 2 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 28 | 26.7 | 2.02 | 0.787 | 11.5 | 34 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 27 | 23.8 | 4.92 | 1.513 | 7.9 | 21 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 23 | 19.0 | 5.21 | 1.579 | 15.2 | 32 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Spencer Strider | Starter | 6 | 30.3 | 3.86 | 1.287 | 11.9 | 40 | 5.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 102 | 5.1 | 4 | 0 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 19 | 19.2 | 0.94 | 0.990 | 10.8 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 28 | 27.5 | 0.65 | 0.873 | 8.2 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 30 | 27.1 | 1.33 | 0.664 | 12.0 | 36 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Kinley | Middle Reliever | 29 | 24.8 | 3.63 | 1.250 | 10.9 | 30 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
ATL wins 2-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.8984; margin adjustment: -0.3773; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 211 | 779 | 180 | 0.231 | 36 | 95 | 0.355 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.272 | 0.383 | 0.462 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 254 | 1039 | 268 | 0.258 | 49 | 133 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.290 | 0.447 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 235 | 938 | 250 | 0.267 | 23 | 109 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.254 | 0.311 | 0.373 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 246 | 911 | 276 | 0.303 | 24 | 110 | 0.388 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.321 | 0.389 | OK |
| Luke Raley | RF | 159 | 546 | 160 | 0.293 | 47 | 128 | 0.348 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.226 | 0.263 | 0.452 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 231 | 818 | 200 | 0.244 | 14 | 110 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.272 | 0.333 | 0.396 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 132 | 389 | 104 | 0.267 | 23 | 85 | 0.332 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.347 | 0.552 | OK |
| Jhonny Pereda | C | 34 | 108 | 19 | 0.176 | 2 | 4 | 0.282 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.323 | 0.349 | OK |
| Colt Emerson | 3B | 40 | 129 | 37 | 0.287 | 7 | 27 | 0.366 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.329 | 0.588 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Gleyber Torres | 2B | 148 | 546 | 143 | 0.262 | 11 | 54 | 0.395 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.302 | 0.410 | 0.423 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | SS | 245 | 940 | 281 | 0.299 | 14 | 107 | 0.398 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.357 | 0.382 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 211 | 786 | 193 | 0.246 | 52 | 158 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.307 | 0.530 | OK |
| Kerry Carpenter | DH | 121 | 387 | 87 | 0.225 | 24 | 69 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.261 | 0.316 | 0.524 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 241 | 880 | 274 | 0.311 | 19 | 115 | 0.408 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.300 | 0.386 | 0.483 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 222 | 772 | 162 | 0.210 | 33 | 84 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.300 | 0.415 | OK |
| Colt Keith | 3B | 168 | 545 | 153 | 0.281 | 0 | 23 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.207 | 0.258 | 0.279 | OK |
| Matt Vierling | CF | 163 | 594 | 122 | 0.205 | 15 | 84 | 0.277 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.166 | 0.244 | 0.298 | OK |
| Wenceel Pérez | RF | 141 | 494 | 87 | 0.176 | 13 | 37 | 0.234 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.178 | 0.230 | 0.352 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0.188 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryce Miller | Starter | 4 | 20.3 | 1.77 | 0.887 | 8.9 | 20 | 5.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 83 | 5.1 | 3 | 1 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 24 | 21.5 | 5.02 | 1.349 | 14.7 | 35 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Brash | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.6 | 0.66 | 0.882 | 8.6 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Middle Reliever | 29 | 24.4 | 1.84 | 1.311 | 8.9 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Keider Montero | Starter | 11 | 58.9 | 3.82 | 1.036 | 6.6 | 43 | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 99 | 6.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 27 | 25.4 | 1.42 | 1.535 | 6.0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Vest | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.1 | 7.89 | 1.696 | 11.6 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Holton | Middle Reliever | 27 | 23.1 | 5.45 | 1.775 | 9.4 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
SEA wins 3-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 3 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.9609; margin adjustment: 0.4036; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Casey Schmitt | LF | 202 | 804 | 247 | 0.307 | 54 | 139 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.293 | 0.545 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 236 | 922 | 233 | 0.253 | 29 | 126 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.273 | 0.368 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 233 | 948 | 320 | 0.338 | 10 | 102 | 0.379 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.327 | 0.366 | 0.459 | OK |
| Willy Adames | SS | 239 | 1001 | 256 | 0.256 | 34 | 97 | 0.291 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.274 | 0.328 | 0.565 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 201 | 791 | 236 | 0.298 | 12 | 77 | 0.342 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.354 | 0.381 | 0.482 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 58 | 190 | 43 | 0.226 | 5 | 9 | 0.308 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 0.370 | 0.429 | OK |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 235 | 902 | 205 | 0.227 | 8 | 91 | 0.317 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.325 | 0.473 | OK |
| Eric Haase | C | 34 | 106 | 31 | 0.292 | 12 | 22 | 0.324 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.294 | 0.548 | OK |
| Drew Gilbert | CF | 118 | 397 | 98 | 0.247 | 9 | 34 | 0.298 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.266 | 0.375 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 30 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 240 | 883 | 217 | 0.246 | 29 | 113 | 0.339 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.344 | 0.479 | OK |
| Michael Conforto | DH | 90 | 256 | 75 | 0.293 | 12 | 42 | 0.410 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.185 | 0.300 | 0.379 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 254 | 936 | 223 | 0.238 | 30 | 158 | 0.382 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.376 | 0.410 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 261 | 1078 | 280 | 0.260 | 18 | 83 | 0.348 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.232 | 0.310 | 0.351 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 245 | 958 | 231 | 0.241 | 65 | 154 | 0.360 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.260 | 0.346 | 0.540 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 188 | 724 | 186 | 0.257 | 34 | 90 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.345 | 0.468 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | SS | 261 | 1098 | 282 | 0.257 | 21 | 162 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.324 | 0.338 | OK |
| Pedro Ramirez | 2B | 11 | 31 | 9 | 0.290 | 0 | 4 | 0.371 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.160 | 0.246 | 0.308 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 153 | 563 | 176 | 0.313 | 6 | 64 | 0.390 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.269 | 0.324 | 0.344 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Landen Roupp | Starter | 12 | 62.6 | 4.31 | 1.342 | 10.4 | 72 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 108 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 26 | 23.7 | 4.18 | 1.392 | 11.4 | 30 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 26 | 25.7 | 2.45 | 0.934 | 8.1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Erik Miller | Middle Reliever | 20 | 15.1 | 4.77 | 1.722 | 14.9 | 25 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ben Brown | Starter | 17 | 50.5 | 1.96 | 0.950 | 9.4 | 53 | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 80 | 5.2 | 8 | 1 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 15 | 12.5 | 2.16 | 1.360 | 10.1 | 14 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 2.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 26 | 23.1 | 2.73 | 1.472 | 12.5 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
CHC wins 3-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.8036; margin adjustment: -0.3375; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 225 | 882 | 281 | 0.319 | 33 | 157 | 0.398 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.304 | 0.373 | 0.470 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 234 | 870 | 250 | 0.287 | 44 | 193 | 0.384 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.252 | 0.373 | 0.440 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 239 | 939 | 254 | 0.271 | 58 | 130 | 0.370 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.306 | 0.418 | 0.520 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | LF | 121 | 377 | 103 | 0.273 | 4 | 60 | 0.383 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.189 | 0.307 | 0.280 | OK |
| Ben Williamson | 2B | 133 | 445 | 122 | 0.274 | 0 | 57 | 0.355 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.324 | 0.343 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 188 | 698 | 132 | 0.189 | 15 | 75 | 0.265 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.284 | 0.376 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 148 | 495 | 100 | 0.202 | 0 | 54 | 0.303 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.297 | 0.289 | OK |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | RF | 18 | 64 | 13 | 0.203 | 6 | 13 | 0.271 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.257 | 0.303 | OK |
| Nick Fortes | C | 139 | 458 | 113 | 0.247 | 4 | 38 | 0.288 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.226 | 0.284 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 45 | 39 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0.154 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 245 | 930 | 297 | 0.319 | 26 | 85 | 0.405 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.275 | 0.367 | 0.409 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 239 | 963 | 333 | 0.346 | 20 | 109 | 0.376 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.167 | 0.313 | 0.340 | 0.465 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | RF | 146 | 553 | 115 | 0.208 | 13 | 45 | 0.298 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.279 | 0.375 | OK |
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 104 | 346 | 70 | 0.202 | 7 | 61 | 0.269 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.243 | 0.299 | 0.465 | OK |
| Leo Jiménez | DH | 53 | 168 | 42 | 0.250 | 0 | 4 | 0.316 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.167 | 0.236 | 0.218 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 3B | 125 | 431 | 122 | 0.283 | 4 | 79 | 0.322 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.223 | 0.265 | 0.336 | OK |
| Esteury Ruiz | CF | 46 | 130 | 26 | 0.200 | 9 | 18 | 0.229 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.141 | 0.195 | 0.359 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 1B | 189 | 638 | 141 | 0.221 | 18 | 63 | 0.329 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.190 | 0.271 | 0.305 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 67 | 219 | 47 | 0.215 | 1 | 29 | 0.262 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.266 | 0.328 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 47 | 40 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shane McClanahan | Starter | 11 | 53.6 | 2.52 | 1.045 | 8.9 | 53 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 96 | 6.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 27 | 24.4 | 2.21 | 1.066 | 10.7 | 29 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ian Seymour | Middle Reliever | 25 | 26.8 | 4.37 | 1.381 | 11.1 | 33 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 26 | 22.8 | 3.16 | 0.965 | 7.5 | 19 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Griffin Jax | Reliever | 17 | 31.2 | 4.33 | 1.474 | 9.2 | 32 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Lake Bachar | Starter | 19 | 29.7 | 3.64 | 1.010 | 10.6 | 35 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 95 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.4 | 7.01 | 1.364 | 13.4 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Bender | Middle Reliever | 25 | 19.9 | 4.07 | 1.106 | 11.8 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever | 22 | 20.3 | 3.99 | 1.281 | 11.1 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 25 | 20.5 | 4.83 | 1.951 | 11.9 | 27 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 2.1 | 2 | 1 |
| John King | Middle Reliever | 28 | 21.3 | 2.96 | 0.845 | 8.5 | 20 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
MIA wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| ARI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.2835; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | DH | 273 | 1052 | 303 | 0.288 | 77 | 195 | 0.430 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.390 | 0.548 | OK |
| Curtis Mead | 3B | 151 | 501 | 129 | 0.257 | 33 | 90 | 0.375 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.202 | 0.302 | 0.370 | OK |
| Andrés Chaparro | 1B | 23 | 67 | 12 | 0.179 | 0 | 14 | 0.257 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.267 | 0.302 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 245 | 931 | 278 | 0.299 | 49 | 207 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.296 | 0.369 | 0.522 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | RF | 36 | 150 | 34 | 0.227 | 4 | 8 | 0.261 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.231 | 0.306 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 253 | 1043 | 266 | 0.255 | 33 | 127 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.303 | 0.406 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 198 | 742 | 174 | 0.235 | 25 | 93 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.223 | 0.267 | 0.362 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | 2B | 195 | 668 | 130 | 0.195 | 0 | 63 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.296 | 0.260 | OK |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 116 | 404 | 105 | 0.260 | 18 | 92 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.272 | 0.294 | 0.485 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 230 | 974 | 267 | 0.274 | 42 | 151 | 0.320 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.231 | 0.286 | 0.446 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 230 | 853 | 254 | 0.298 | 34 | 130 | 0.396 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.349 | 0.557 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 130 | 469 | 122 | 0.260 | 13 | 74 | 0.326 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.344 | 0.387 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 201 | 696 | 191 | 0.274 | 30 | 118 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.320 | 0.443 | OK |
| Pavin Smith | DH | 13 | 32 | 4 | 0.125 | 0 | 5 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.183 | 0.329 | 0.262 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 75 | 264 | 72 | 0.273 | 0 | 28 | 0.338 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.201 | 0.269 | 0.308 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 225 | 792 | 180 | 0.227 | 10 | 81 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.271 | 0.359 | 0.379 | OK |
| LuJames Groover | 1B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.339 | 0.449 | |
| Tommy Troy | LF | 21 | 67 | 24 | 0.358 | 1 | 1 | 0.434 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.280 | 0.356 | 0.469 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zack Littell | Starter | 12 | 58.4 | 5.09 | 1.387 | 5.4 | 35 | 5.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 92 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Clayton Beeter | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.6 | 3.46 | 1.474 | 10.4 | 18 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 18 | 35.3 | 2.80 | 1.133 | 8.4 | 33 | 1.1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 3 |
| Orlando Ribalta | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.4 | 1.75 | 1.039 | 7.6 | 13 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Starter | 12 | 71.4 | 2.27 | 1.204 | 6.6 | 52 | 6.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 97 | 6.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.476 | 8.6 | 2 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
ARI wins 5-4