MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

June 6, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
BAL @ TOR1 - 22 - 4TORTORTOR wins 4-252%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
BOS @ NYY1 - 21 - 2NYYNYYNYY wins 2-156%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHW @ PHI4 - 24 - 2CHWCHWCHW wins 4-255%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CIN @ STL3 - 44 - 5STLSTLSTL wins 5-453%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CLE @ TEX3 - 43 - 4TEXTEXTEX wins 4-354%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
KC @ MIN1 - 21 - 3MINMINMIN wins 3-153%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAA @ LAD1 - 62 - 5LADLADLAD wins 5-265%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIL @ COL6 - 16 - 2MILMILMIL wins 6-265%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYM @ SD5 - 34 - 3NYMNYMNYM wins 4-355%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
OAK @ HOU4 - 35 - 3OAKOAKOAK wins 5-354%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PIT @ ATL1 - 21 - 2ATLATLATL wins 2-155%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SEA @ DET3 - 13 - 1SEASEASEA wins 3-154%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SF @ CHC1 - 31 - 3CHCCHCCHC wins 3-154%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TB @ MIA3 - 43 - 4MIAMIAMIA wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
WAS @ ARI2 - 54 - 5ARIARIARI wins 5-455%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

BAL 31-34 (4.69 RPG / 5.14 RA)
2 - 4
TOR 31-34 (4.09 RPG / 4.32 RA)
WINNER: TOR wins 4-2 TARGET: BAL 1 - 2 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 52.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
BAL00000002024
TOR00000100347

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-144.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.233
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-127.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record31-33
Win%0.484
Run Diff-27
RD/Game-0.422

TOR Season Quality

Record30-34
Win%0.469
Run Diff-17
RD/Game-0.266

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1328; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardDH 258948250 0.264 9740.408 43110 10 0.333 0.272 0.397 0.366 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 2601111234 0.211 541370.266 44112 02 0.250 0.213 0.266 0.380 OK
Adley RutschmanC 166648175 0.270 321190.342 44000 00 0.000 0.289 0.362 0.523 OK
Pete Alonso1B 250959234 0.244 421520.326 44000 02 0.000 0.277 0.349 0.455 OK
Coby Mayo3B 156519111 0.214 23770.289 44000 00 0.000 0.237 0.295 0.462 OK
Leody TaverasCF 166563154 0.274 9920.364 44100 01 0.250 0.196 0.280 0.309 OK
Colton CowserRF 11833470 0.210 9440.298 42000 10 0.000 0.246 0.337 0.374 OK
Blaze AlexanderLF 134442121 0.274 4550.325 33000 00 0.000 0.266 0.312 0.363 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 3210423 0.221 5190.298 33100 01 0.333 0.219 0.314 0.338 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 22 26 0.129

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 167681146 0.214 23650.291 43000 00 0.000 0.218 0.284 0.357 OK
Nathan LukesRF 7626185 0.326 1360.371 44110 00 0.250 0.308 0.332 0.438 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 232853251 0.294 121000.391 43000 11 0.000 0.262 0.345 0.356 OK
Jesús SánchezLF 180606167 0.276 251050.317 44211 01 0.500 0.199 0.227 0.336 OK
Ernie Clement2B 228914278 0.304 22900.326 44000 02 0.000 0.299 0.318 0.429 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 11134792 0.265 19470.362 43000 11 0.000 0.230 0.327 0.445 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 230860192 0.223 501340.313 43110 11 0.333 0.254 0.334 0.441 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 201719163 0.227 251110.261 44100 01 0.250 0.200 0.237 0.328 OK
Myles StrawCF 9825263 0.250 7200.325 44213 02 0.500 0.162 0.234 0.239 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36327 44 39 0.219

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle BradishStarter 1264.43.49 1.4449.165 5.052226108 5.0 6 2
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2824.00.75 0.66711.230 1.10000120 1.1 1 0
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 1510.88.33 1.85211.714 1.00110213 1.0 2 1
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 2717.52.57 0.7438.216 0.22111018 0.2 0 1

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braydon FisherStarter 3229.23.08 1.09610.835 5.01000374 5.0 3 0
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 2929.30.31 1.09213.243 1.11000120 1.1 1 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 2925.12.51 1.1955.716 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 2924.16.72 1.86717.246 1.01222024 1.0 0 2
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever 3217.04.24 1.82416.431 0.21000013 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

TOR wins 4-2


Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

BOS 27-35 (4.0 RPG / 4.06 RA)
1 - 2
NYY 37-26 (5.05 RPG / 3.6 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 2-1 TARGET: BOS 1 - 2 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 55.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
BOS00000100014
NYY02000000x27

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.236
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-108.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.291
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-73.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record27-35
Win%0.435
Run Diff-4
RD/Game-0.065

NYY Season Quality

Record37-26
Win%0.587
Run Diff91
RD/Game1.444

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.7367; margin adjustment: 0.7294; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 205780221 0.283 18900.349 44100 00 0.250 0.263 0.310 0.398 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 166553119 0.215 7470.275 44111 01 0.250 0.167 0.223 0.224 OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B 7522671 0.314 4360.397 43100 00 0.333 0.243 0.323 0.315 OK
Willson Contreras1B 226834238 0.285 511620.381 44000 02 0.000 0.291 0.374 0.536 OK
Mickey GasperC 5218662 0.333 0120.378 44000 01 0.000 0.265 0.312 0.364 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 175604116 0.192 5750.267 44000 00 0.000 0.227 0.270 0.354 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 237934263 0.282 271050.347 32000 10 0.000 0.262 0.330 0.413 OK
Jarren DuranLF 227947204 0.215 381360.286 33100 00 0.333 0.203 0.264 0.375 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 116385100 0.260 4290.348 33000 00 0.000 0.179 0.261 0.270 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 11 14 0.129

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 216793168 0.212 331340.327 44100 00 0.250 0.241 0.347 0.428 OK
José CaballeroSS 170596163 0.273 19640.327 44100 01 0.250 0.254 0.300 0.410 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 222839207 0.247 28940.327 44000 02 0.000 0.233 0.307 0.408 OK
Paul Goldschmidt1B 115432122 0.282 25700.363 44200 00 0.500 0.278 0.340 0.516 OK
Austin WellsC 15751297 0.189 17320.306 43111 11 0.333 0.181 0.294 0.264 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 158527106 0.201 18670.261 44100 00 0.250 0.235 0.283 0.365 OK
Cody BellingerLF 241881240 0.272 361630.378 33000 02 0.000 0.263 0.369 0.422 OK
Amed Rosario3B 9633297 0.292 27760.336 32011 00 0.000 0.284 0.327 0.587 OK
Ben Rice1B 219831250 0.301 711730.403 32100 10 0.500 0.301 0.401 0.621 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33307 22 26 0.233

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ranger SuarezStarter 1157.53.44 1.1838.957 5.06221494 5.0 4 2
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 2019.20.47 0.93812.226 2.01000128 2.0 1 0
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 129.63.75 1.35413.114 1.00001117 1.0 1 0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Will WarrenStarter 1262.03.34 1.24210.270 5.241114101 5.2 4 1
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2523.64.58 1.61011.129 1.10000018 1.1 0 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 3020.02.70 1.60014.833 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2819.14.24 1.4666.113 1.00000014 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 2-1


Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies

CHW 34-30 (4.77 RPG / 4.58 RA)
4 - 2
PHI 34-30 (3.95 RPG / 4.31 RA)
WINNER: CHW wins 4-2 TARGET: CHW 4 - 2 PHI (CHW) Confidence: 55.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CHW00004000049
PHI00100000125

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.283
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.4
Run Diff-62.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.207
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-142.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record33-30
Win%0.524
Run Diff9
RD/Game0.143

PHI Season Quality

Record34-29
Win%0.540
Run Diff-20
RD/Game-0.317

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4365; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 155549144 0.262 5600.373 55112 01 0.200 0.265 0.314 0.377 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 245907211 0.233 581510.365 55111 01 0.200 0.249 0.368 0.504 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 178658165 0.251 171050.293 44111 03 0.250 0.249 0.317 0.470 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 236890209 0.235 591550.330 43110 11 0.333 0.213 0.269 0.425 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 235909240 0.264 24880.337 44100 01 0.250 0.257 0.333 0.374 OK
Jacob Gonzalez1B 5155 0.333 020.412 44100 01 0.250 0.267 0.346 0.352 OK
Tristan PetersCF 155475138 0.291 8520.352 43100 11 0.333 0.241 0.292 0.364 OK
Drew RomoC 6521539 0.181 18370.302 44100 01 0.250 0.140 0.236 0.334 OK
Rikuu NishidaRF 154510 0.222 020.222 44100 00 0.250 0.214 0.223 0.275 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38369 44 210 0.250

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 246958238 0.248 991860.361 43000 12 0.000 0.268 0.371 0.549 OK
Trea TurnerSS 2471062246 0.232 34910.278 44100 02 0.250 0.232 0.274 0.348 OK
Bryce Harper1B 237859237 0.276 581500.384 43000 11 0.000 0.257 0.383 0.479 OK
Alec Bohm3B 216813177 0.218 181030.276 44000 00 0.000 0.241 0.289 0.340 OK
Brandon MarshLF 199742252 0.340 241140.370 43110 12 0.333 0.339 0.371 0.514 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 136474117 0.247 10420.324 43000 11 0.000 0.212 0.275 0.346 OK
Bryson Stott2B 192689151 0.219 211000.270 44000 02 0.000 0.217 0.263 0.382 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 220784156 0.199 14710.285 44312 00 0.750 0.213 0.271 0.390 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 179612145 0.237 8440.302 44000 00 0.000 0.224 0.278 0.348 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 22 410 0.156

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon EisertStarter 1211.53.91 1.39110.213 3.01002755 3.0 7 0
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 1.01112024 1.0 0 1
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 2.01000228 2.0 2 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 2420.91.72 1.4839.923 2.00000125 2.0 1 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 1.02110033 1.0 0 1

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew PainterStarter 1151.75.92 1.5677.543 5.06441587 5.0 5 4
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 2120.21.34 0.84214.733 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 2826.53.74 1.2839.829 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 2621.02.57 1.33310.725 1.01001220 1.0 2 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 2716.97.46 2.18914.427 1.01000118 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

CHW wins 4-2


Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals

CIN 31-32 (4.32 RPG / 5.1 RA)
4 - 5
STL 34-28 (4.4 RPG / 4.47 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 5-4 TARGET: CIN 3 - 4 STL (STL) Confidence: 52.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CIN02000200047
STL20010000258

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.241
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-183.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.143
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-117.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CIN Season Quality

Record31-30
Win%0.508
Run Diff-41
RD/Game-0.672

STL Season Quality

Record32-28
Win%0.533
Run Diff-12
RD/Game-0.200

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5098; margin adjustment: 0.2141; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dane MyersCF 9525865 0.252 15410.381 55000 03 0.000 0.170 0.285 0.304 OK
JJ BledayDH 119457127 0.278 341040.370 54000 10 0.000 0.252 0.336 0.516 OK
Spencer Steer2B 214788210 0.266 32890.342 43110 10 0.333 0.274 0.353 0.503 OK
Sal Stewart1B 245915228 0.249 491620.358 44100 01 0.250 0.254 0.359 0.415 OK
Eugenio Suárez3B 125458106 0.231 11540.308 43000 11 0.000 0.207 0.291 0.337 OK
Blake DunnLF 5925579 0.310 6170.371 44111 02 0.250 0.208 0.255 0.301 OK
Noelvi MarteRF 329915 0.152 000.215 44100 02 0.250 0.174 0.230 0.217 OK
Matt McLainSS 218841178 0.212 22910.308 44213 01 0.500 0.194 0.287 0.307 OK
P.J. HigginsC 195314 0.264 060.288 43110 11 0.333 0.234 0.274 0.308 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 44 411 0.206

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Masyn WinnSS 206793182 0.230 6920.298 55011 00 0.000 0.229 0.297 0.344 OK
Iván HerreraDH 250951246 0.259 281170.385 53000 21 0.000 0.253 0.343 0.367 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 231904289 0.320 692010.385 54313 10 0.750 0.310 0.360 0.512 OK
Nelson VelázquezLF 5136 0.462 140.533 44000 02 0.000 0.305 0.352 0.516 OK
Alec Burleson1B 235949267 0.281 321640.346 43111 11 0.333 0.291 0.352 0.472 OK
José FermínLF 7521143 0.204 5260.268 44000 01 0.000 0.153 0.224 0.257 OK
Bryan Torres2B 259423 0.245 040.330 44100 01 0.250 0.219 0.302 0.344 OK
Pedro PagésC 128445102 0.229 16360.269 43210 10 0.667 0.231 0.261 0.372 OK
Victor Scott IICF 16248183 0.173 9280.250 43110 10 0.333 0.193 0.278 0.268 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39338 55 66 0.242

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick LodoloStarter 526.55.43 1.4347.522 5.05334394 5.0 3 3
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 2521.65.42 1.5749.222 0.10000116 0.1 1 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 3124.24.09 1.69410.829 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Sam MollMiddle Reliever 2821.22.97 1.27411.928 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 119.44.79 1.2779.610 0.23221021 0.2 0 2

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matthew LiberatoreStarter 1260.64.46 1.5358.557 5.063336105 5.0 6 3
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2725.74.20 1.16710.229 1.01110118 1.0 1 1
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2822.44.42 1.56211.228 1.00001118 1.0 1 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 2621.43.36 1.2629.322 1.00000224 1.0 2 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 2719.96.33 2.06014.031 1.00000115 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

STL wins 5-4


Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers

CLE 36-29 (4.09 RPG / 4.02 RA)
3 - 4
TEX 31-32 (4.0 RPG / 3.84 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 4-3 TARGET: CLE 3 - 4 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 54.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CLE00300000039
TEX00200200x48

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.317
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-121.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.339
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-105.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record36-28
Win%0.562
Run Diff6
RD/Game0.094

TEX Season Quality

Record30-32
Win%0.484
Run Diff9
RD/Game0.145

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0665; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Travis Bazzana2B 119435129 0.297 13530.404 54110 10 0.250 0.254 0.331 0.438 OK
José Ramírez3B 257955227 0.238 371290.351 55100 00 0.200 0.257 0.348 0.450 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 221856218 0.255 321480.331 55211 00 0.400 0.232 0.301 0.357 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 174619134 0.216 18610.297 44212 01 0.500 0.241 0.310 0.450 OK
Daniel SchneemannCF 164566136 0.240 17770.328 43100 10 0.333 0.219 0.302 0.336 OK
Angel MartínezRF 197757195 0.258 381190.296 44000 00 0.000 0.180 0.202 0.316 OK
Steven KwanLF 235887188 0.212 4560.328 44000 02 0.000 0.224 0.317 0.287 OK
Patrick BaileyC 277712 0.156 370.214 43100 10 0.333 0.167 0.223 0.267 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 210704208 0.295 141050.373 44100 02 0.250 0.239 0.294 0.344 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39369 33 35 0.250

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 164491129 0.263 25680.366 44110 01 0.250 0.205 0.316 0.386 OK
Corey SeagerSS 183684125 0.183 33910.294 44000 00 0.000 0.167 0.257 0.338 OK
Josh Jung3B 214831254 0.306 27980.363 44100 01 0.250 0.297 0.348 0.461 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 242959250 0.261 29930.343 44210 01 0.500 0.214 0.269 0.339 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 8535687 0.244 3170.277 44100 02 0.250 0.247 0.287 0.370 OK
Ezequiel Duran2B 171597180 0.302 141100.357 44212 01 0.500 0.225 0.293 0.380 OK
Jake Burger1B 222856201 0.235 381480.287 33000 02 0.000 0.198 0.270 0.333 OK
Evan CarterCF 198637117 0.184 25690.300 32112 10 0.500 0.138 0.242 0.260 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 9632665 0.199 12350.287 33000 00 0.000 0.198 0.287 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33328 44 18 0.250

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner BibeeStarter 1367.64.66 1.3318.060 5.26221593 5.2 5 2
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2828.22.87 1.09913.743 1.02220116 1.0 1 2
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 1814.03.86 1.4299.014 0.10000015 0.1 0 0
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 1814.21.90 1.26812.720 1.00000214 1.0 2 0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack LeiterStarter 1264.04.50 1.37510.474 5.283322103 5.2 2 3
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 2227.60.98 0.5079.529 1.1000019 1.1 1 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 2325.51.76 0.8246.017 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 2721.83.72 1.6518.721 0.21001115 0.2 1 0
Jalen BeeksMiddle Reliever 2820.24.46 1.6349.421 0.10000014 0.1 0 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 4-3


Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

KC 26-39 (3.88 RPG / 4.63 RA)
1 - 3
MIN 30-36 (4.59 RPG / 4.97 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 3-1 TARGET: KC 1 - 2 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 52.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
KC00000010016
MIN21000000x35

KC Recent Form

Win%0.153
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-170.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.254
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-151.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

KC Season Quality

Record25-38
Win%0.397
Run Diff-48
RD/Game-0.762

MIN Season Quality

Record29-35
Win%0.453
Run Diff-26
RD/Game-0.406

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4401; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenC 193665152 0.229 241030.315 43000 11 0.000 0.185 0.260 0.312 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 2511006289 0.287 401120.357 44000 02 0.000 0.246 0.341 0.403 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 235885174 0.197 241110.294 44100 03 0.250 0.216 0.311 0.358 OK
Maikel GarciaDH 237977280 0.287 141010.337 44200 00 0.500 0.294 0.343 0.421 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 187653147 0.225 19440.302 43000 02 0.000 0.211 0.293 0.359 OK
Michael Massey2B 12138595 0.247 13530.263 43100 11 0.333 0.232 0.254 0.421 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 185609136 0.223 11710.350 44100 01 0.250 0.209 0.322 0.289 OK
Josh Rojas3B 111 1.000 021.000 44000 00 0.000 0.120 0.135 0.182 LARGE
Kyle IsbelCF 159519136 0.262 11420.313 44111 02 0.250 0.220 0.259 0.313 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 11 212 0.182

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trevor LarnachLF 162564154 0.273 9570.377 42011 11 0.000 0.207 0.313 0.317 OK
Brooks Lee3B 215817203 0.248 271270.305 44100 01 0.250 0.224 0.271 0.394 OK
Kody Clemens1B 174635147 0.231 24720.317 44211 01 0.500 0.196 0.257 0.416 OK
Josh BellDH 224846189 0.223 211290.287 44000 01 0.000 0.258 0.311 0.386 OK
Austin MartinRF 181662189 0.285 10750.384 44111 01 0.250 0.225 0.308 0.320 OK
Victor CaratiniC 15451898 0.189 6760.285 33000 02 0.000 0.245 0.314 0.352 OK
Royce Lewis2B 11940367 0.166 12530.263 32000 10 0.000 0.182 0.258 0.286 OK
Tristan GraySS 10233278 0.235 14690.281 33100 01 0.333 0.280 0.312 0.453 OK
Ryan KreidlerCF 5317344 0.254 9280.325 32000 11 0.000 0.197 0.261 0.370 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32285 33 39 0.179

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luinder AvilaStarter 1126.14.48 1.7248.625 4.14332783 4.1 7 3
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 2321.45.47 1.8228.420 0.10000018 0.1 0 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 1917.44.14 1.2648.817 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 2522.32.02 1.12111.729 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever 2720.63.50 1.5537.016 1.01001120 1.0 1 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joe RyanStarter 1369.43.24 0.98010.279 6.03001793 6.0 7 0
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 1511.00.82 1.00014.718 1.02111123 1.0 1 1
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 2618.24.45 1.8688.417 1.01000316 1.0 3 0
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 2525.04.32 1.6809.727 1.00000119 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

MIN wins 3-1


Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers

LAA 24-40 (4.31 RPG / 5.12 RA)
2 - 5
LAD 41-23 (5.17 RPG / 3.08 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 5-2 TARGET: LAA 1 - 6 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 64.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
LAA02000000024
LAD03200000x57

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.268
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-161.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.305
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-71.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAA Season Quality

Record24-39
Win%0.381
Run Diff-51
RD/Game-0.810

LAD Season Quality

Record40-23
Win%0.635
Run Diff133
RD/Game2.111

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 3.3016; margin adjustment: 1.3867; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 2611029247 0.240 451260.351 44100 01 0.250 0.230 0.327 0.397 OK
Mike TroutCF 257908227 0.250 631480.420 44000 00 0.000 0.222 0.385 0.413 OK
Wade MecklerLF 258428 0.333 5190.378 44000 02 0.000 0.282 0.332 0.462 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 164570161 0.282 27650.352 43000 11 0.000 0.247 0.278 0.393 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 204820217 0.265 181100.316 43000 11 0.000 0.253 0.295 0.378 OK
Jo AdellRF 241948230 0.243 331340.289 43000 11 0.000 0.214 0.233 0.321 OK
Nick MadrigalDH 6187 0.389 010.389 44210 00 0.500 0.242 0.252 0.362 OK
Donovan Walton3B 2610126 0.257 010.292 33112 00 0.333 0.222 0.260 0.322 OK
Logan O'HoppeC 12743296 0.222 5480.315 33000 00 0.000 0.191 0.263 0.301 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 22 36 0.129

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 244943266 0.282 411540.408 44210 00 0.500 0.337 0.438 0.558 OK
Andy PagesCF 234895278 0.311 582220.359 44000 01 0.000 0.279 0.324 0.491 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 235888241 0.271 331280.369 43000 10 0.000 0.296 0.372 0.533 OK
Mookie BettsSS 9942175 0.178 29730.226 44110 01 0.250 0.189 0.240 0.332 OK
Max Muncy3B 199704184 0.261 54830.360 43211 11 0.667 0.252 0.329 0.461 OK
Ryan WardLF 62610 0.385 050.385 43110 10 0.333 0.251 0.263 0.326 OK
Alex CallRF 6720856 0.269 0380.388 44000 01 0.000 0.195 0.308 0.274 OK
Dalton RushingC 9632793 0.284 31690.364 32114 00 0.500 0.271 0.323 0.476 OK
Alex Freeland2B 12239297 0.247 9370.325 33000 01 0.000 0.280 0.358 0.435 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34307 55 35 0.233

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack KochanowiczStarter 1261.85.39 1.5216.746 4.16553289 4.1 2 5
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 108.44.29 1.31012.912 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 2225.62.46 1.21110.931 1.0000013 1.0 1 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 2717.02.12 1.76511.121 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Drew PomeranzMiddle Reliever 2116.86.43 1.9058.015 0.10000116 0.1 1 0
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 2325.16.45 1.55411.532 0.11000012 0.1 0 0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Yoshinobu YamamotoStarter 1168.42.89 1.0099.169 6.232226101 6.2 6 2
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 2924.82.54 0.80611.231 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 2019.22.34 0.99011.224 1.01000012 1.0 0 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 2716.82.68 1.19015.028 0.10001013 0.1 0 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-2


Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies

MIL 38-23 (5.08 RPG / 3.59 RA)
6 - 2
COL 24-40 (4.36 RPG / 5.69 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 6-2 TARGET: MIL 6 - 1 COL (MIL) Confidence: 64.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIL001000005610
COL00020000023

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.377
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-64.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.186
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-217.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record37-23
Win%0.617
Run Diff89
RD/Game1.483

COL Season Quality

Record24-39
Win%0.381
Run Diff-83
RD/Game-1.317

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -3.1544; margin adjustment: -1.3248; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Christian YelichDH 105409119 0.291 15630.356 55212 00 0.400 0.296 0.361 0.454 OK
Jackson ChourioCF 96413118 0.286 7340.334 55111 00 0.200 0.310 0.371 0.540 OK
Brice Turang2B 234873252 0.289 341540.409 54110 11 0.250 0.316 0.434 0.500 OK
William ContrerasC 224904267 0.295 171570.365 54011 11 0.000 0.242 0.307 0.330 OK
Jake BauersLF 187703201 0.286 361360.360 55211 01 0.400 0.273 0.372 0.507 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 6723177 0.333 4370.408 54100 11 0.250 0.322 0.366 0.481 OK
Sal FrelickRF 192696157 0.226 14700.294 44000 00 0.000 0.269 0.339 0.376 OK
Joey OrtizSS 13441884 0.201 4410.295 43100 11 0.333 0.204 0.305 0.271 OK
David Hamilton3B 149478112 0.234 2330.327 43211 00 0.667 0.233 0.326 0.349 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423710 66 45 0.270

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyCF 144487126 0.259 10690.297 44111 01 0.250 0.248 0.288 0.426 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 141520130 0.250 11600.325 44000 00 0.000 0.221 0.269 0.334 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 219824230 0.279 301170.357 44000 01 0.000 0.243 0.320 0.375 OK
Hunter GoodmanDH 217860212 0.247 58960.314 44111 02 0.250 0.231 0.303 0.526 OK
Troy JohnstonLF 189687225 0.328 10960.389 32000 11 0.000 0.284 0.338 0.408 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 208788173 0.220 10820.267 33000 00 0.000 0.194 0.243 0.310 OK
Edouard Julien2B 155535121 0.226 10610.327 33100 00 0.333 0.235 0.354 0.321 OK
Kyle Karros3B 186574130 0.226 9540.335 33000 00 0.000 0.241 0.338 0.379 OK
Brett SullivanC 8428056 0.200 2320.245 33000 00 0.000 0.150 0.184 0.319 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31303 22 15 0.100

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob MisiorowskiStarter 1270.31.66 0.79713.8108 6.22110590 6.2 5 1
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 2323.03.13 1.04311.329 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 2420.74.35 1.35310.023 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 2834.62.60 1.47413.853 0.1000001 0.1 0 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zach AgnosStarter 1635.68.09 1.6296.827 3.27330371 3.2 3 3
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1831.92.26 1.0978.530 2.10000029 2.1 0 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 2623.97.91 2.17612.132 1.00110120 1.0 1 1
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 2516.44.39 1.89013.224 2.03224150 2.0 1 2

Game Summary

MIL wins 6-2


New York Mets @ San Diego Padres

NYM 28-35 (4.06 RPG / 4.19 RA)
4 - 3
SD 32-30 (3.79 RPG / 4.03 RA)
WINNER: NYM wins 4-3 TARGET: NYM 5 - 3 SD (NYM) Confidence: 55.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
NYM030100000411
SD00000011136

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.357
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-105.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SD Recent Form

Win%0.179
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-136.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record27-35
Win%0.435
Run Diff-13
RD/Game-0.210

SD Season Quality

Record32-29
Win%0.525
Run Diff-10
RD/Game-0.164

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1794; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 207792208 0.263 141000.331 54200 10 0.500 0.250 0.306 0.435 OK
Bo BichetteSS 2491029236 0.229 241360.277 55111 01 0.200 0.247 0.299 0.352 OK
Juan SotoLF 171648194 0.299 461080.395 55311 01 0.600 0.267 0.348 0.488 OK
Jared Young1B 329632 0.333 380.379 55000 02 0.000 0.197 0.256 0.383 OK
Marcus Semien2B 227836194 0.232 21940.281 55111 00 0.200 0.219 0.279 0.389 OK
A.J. EwingCF 6723261 0.263 4220.369 44100 02 0.250 0.250 0.340 0.343 OK
Mark VientosDH 183678153 0.226 25980.265 43100 12 0.333 0.160 0.189 0.275 OK
Brett Baty3B 187672167 0.249 14910.312 44211 01 0.500 0.226 0.278 0.325 OK
Luis TorrensC 10030161 0.203 1350.262 43000 00 0.000 0.194 0.228 0.331 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413811 44 29 0.289

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 234902238 0.264 1700.339 43000 01 0.000 0.255 0.312 0.324 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 223870178 0.205 19920.279 44000 01 0.000 0.221 0.283 0.367 OK
Ty France1B 106362106 0.293 20610.328 44000 01 0.000 0.251 0.293 0.439 OK
Manny Machado3B 224811142 0.175 411240.267 44211 01 0.500 0.176 0.250 0.337 OK
Gavin SheetsLF 176597147 0.246 33870.330 43100 00 0.333 0.190 0.282 0.382 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 216799198 0.248 301050.318 44100 02 0.250 0.194 0.270 0.288 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 170647180 0.278 19710.305 43111 00 0.333 0.227 0.255 0.369 OK
Sung-Mun Song2B 287113 0.183 0140.293 43111 11 0.333 0.114 0.229 0.194 OK
Freddy FerminC 11034948 0.138 0130.241 44000 01 0.000 0.114 0.208 0.169 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36326 33 18 0.188

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nolan McLeanStarter 1264.74.31 1.14410.777 5.22110793 5.2 7 1
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 2218.64.84 1.45215.031 2.12110028 2.1 0 1
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 2625.92.78 1.0429.427 1.02111123 1.0 1 1

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Griffin CanningStarter 626.57.47 1.6239.227 4.28441687 4.2 6 4
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 2523.81.13 0.96618.950 1.00000122 1.0 1 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 2418.91.90 1.2706.213 0.21000014 0.2 0 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 2825.25.71 1.42912.535 1.11001024 1.1 0 0
Ron MarinaccioMiddle Reliever 2129.94.21 1.3388.127 1.11000223 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 4-3


Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros

OAK 30-34 (4.19 RPG / 4.94 RA)
5 - 3
HOU 30-36 (4.65 RPG / 5.02 RA)
WINNER: OAK wins 5-3 TARGET: OAK 4 - 3 HOU (OAK) Confidence: 53.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
OAK013100000511
HOU02000001036

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.224
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-154.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.383
Avg Runs1.6
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-165.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record30-32
Win%0.484
Run Diff-33
RD/Game-0.532

HOU Season Quality

Record28-36
Win%0.438
Run Diff-39
RD/Game-0.609

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1467; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CortesRF 155516179 0.347 24750.430 54211 12 0.500 0.219 0.311 0.361 OK
Shea LangeliersC 235975296 0.304 621350.372 55110 02 0.200 0.258 0.317 0.541 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 255924263 0.285 411770.439 55000 03 0.000 0.264 0.424 0.489 OK
Brent RookerDH 166634128 0.202 381290.291 54213 10 0.500 0.217 0.288 0.430 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 229883193 0.219 281130.307 44100 02 0.250 0.253 0.347 0.465 OK
Henry BolteCF 5118358 0.317 0170.371 44111 01 0.250 0.288 0.339 0.383 OK
Zack Gelof3B 141524135 0.258 26720.310 44310 00 0.750 0.221 0.275 0.353 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 194680180 0.265 6580.333 44100 01 0.250 0.219 0.274 0.288 OK
Darell HernaizSS 11636698 0.268 4290.345 44000 00 0.000 0.168 0.252 0.222 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403811 55 211 0.289

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 94389103 0.265 10300.320 44000 02 0.000 0.315 0.358 0.465 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 252933310 0.332 991890.447 44100 01 0.250 0.332 0.437 0.622 OK
Christian Walker1B 237902247 0.274 671870.348 44011 00 0.000 0.238 0.302 0.440 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 217809195 0.241 291110.337 44000 02 0.000 0.253 0.336 0.527 OK
Jose Altuve2B 187742189 0.255 21610.335 44200 00 0.500 0.242 0.311 0.437 OK
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF 140 0.000 000.000 44111 02 0.250 0.226 0.236 0.318
Taylor TrammellRF 4916957 0.337 0240.381 43000 12 0.000 0.209 0.251 0.345 OK
Jake MeyersCF 7227060 0.222 9250.291 33111 00 0.333 0.209 0.270 0.320 OK
Christian VázquezC 123407109 0.268 16670.326 33100 01 0.333 0.231 0.287 0.360 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34336 33 110 0.182

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew MorrisStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 4.03221575 4.0 5 2
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 3222.73.17 1.93813.133 1.20000023 1.2 0 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 2823.35.79 1.54510.427 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 2823.82.65 1.0928.723 1.12110223 1.1 2 1
Justin SternerMiddle Reliever 3025.83.84 1.2029.427 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tatsuya ImaiStarter 727.75.85 1.4449.128 4.17551581 4.1 5 5
Josh HaderMiddle Reliever 22.00.00 0.50018.04 1.00001018 1.0 0 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 2423.63.05 1.5258.021 1.02000117 1.0 1 0
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 2522.83.55 1.09610.727 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Nate PearsonMiddle Reliever 54.26.43 1.90510.75 1.01000119 1.0 1 0
Steven OkertMiddle Reliever 3024.13.73 1.1629.325 0.20000217 0.2 2 0

Game Summary

OAK wins 5-3


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves

PIT 34-31 (5.09 RPG / 4.62 RA)
1 - 2
ATL 44-21 (5.25 RPG / 3.48 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 2-1 TARGET: PIT 1 - 2 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 55.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
PIT00000010013
ATL00002000x27

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.286
Avg Runs1.8
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-101.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.278
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-80.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record34-30
Win%0.531
Run Diff34
RD/Game0.531

ATL Season Quality

Record43-21
Win%0.672
Run Diff112
RD/Game1.750

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.4297; margin adjustment: 0.6005; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Spencer Horwitz1B 196656189 0.288 221060.404 43000 12 0.000 0.246 0.365 0.385 OK
Brandon LoweDH 227900242 0.269 661820.360 44000 01 0.000 0.224 0.306 0.455 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 246895249 0.278 231560.404 44000 02 0.000 0.239 0.369 0.400 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 186719210 0.292 311340.368 42100 20 0.500 0.270 0.344 0.477 OK
Nick Gonzales2B 205824255 0.309 21020.362 44000 03 0.000 0.298 0.344 0.434 OK
Oneil CruzCF 2511064286 0.269 551780.337 43000 10 0.000 0.267 0.365 0.465 OK
Endy RodríguezC 278121 0.259 1110.412 43100 11 0.333 0.219 0.367 0.373 OK
Tyler Callihan3B 473 0.429 030.636 44111 00 0.250 0.139 0.408 0.745 OK
Jared TrioloSS 8128663 0.220 0110.276 43000 11 0.000 0.198 0.263 0.254 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36303 11 610 0.100

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 197749178 0.238 19810.361 43100 11 0.333 0.273 0.395 0.498 OK
Mauricio DubónCF 221847216 0.255 151270.310 42100 21 0.500 0.266 0.320 0.525 OK
Matt Olson1B 254994271 0.273 702020.355 43210 10 0.667 0.291 0.354 0.550 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 250978272 0.278 401350.337 44112 01 0.250 0.293 0.357 0.495 OK
Dominic SmithDH 123414138 0.333 16820.361 44000 00 0.000 0.267 0.295 0.383 OK
Austin Riley3B 241913199 0.218 311310.292 44100 01 0.250 0.196 0.264 0.319 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 159510113 0.222 9450.306 43000 12 0.000 0.233 0.319 0.343 OK
Austin WynnsC 000 0.000 000.000 44000 02 0.000 0.115 0.185 0.149
Ha-Seong KimSS 4917618 0.102 0110.194 44100 02 0.250 0.139 0.216 0.171 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36317 22 510 0.226

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braxton AshcraftStarter 1272.82.84 1.05810.081 6.152247111 6.1 7 2
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2826.72.02 0.78711.534 1.01000117 1.0 1 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 2723.84.92 1.5137.921 0.01001016 0.0 0 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 2319.05.21 1.57915.232 0.20000211 0.2 2 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer StriderStarter 630.33.86 1.28711.940 5.120044102 5.1 4 0
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1919.20.94 0.99010.823 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 2827.50.65 0.8738.225 1.01110216 1.0 2 1
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 3027.11.33 0.66412.036 1.00000224 1.0 2 0
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 2924.83.63 1.25010.930 0.20001012 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 2-1


Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers

SEA 34-31 (4.22 RPG / 3.75 RA)
3 - 1
DET 26-39 (3.92 RPG / 4.31 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 3-1 TARGET: SEA 3 - 1 DET (SEA) Confidence: 54.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SEA00000300036
DET00001000016

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.375
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-92.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.317
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-113.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record33-31
Win%0.516
Run Diff26
RD/Game0.406

DET Season Quality

Record26-38
Win%0.406
Run Diff-21
RD/Game-0.328

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8984; margin adjustment: -0.3773; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 211779180 0.231 36950.355 55110 01 0.200 0.272 0.383 0.462 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 2541039268 0.258 491330.316 44100 00 0.250 0.236 0.290 0.447 OK
Josh Naylor1B 235938250 0.267 231090.331 44210 00 0.500 0.254 0.311 0.373 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 246911276 0.303 241100.388 44000 00 0.000 0.253 0.321 0.389 OK
Luke RaleyRF 159546160 0.293 471280.348 43113 10 0.333 0.226 0.263 0.452 OK
Cole Young2B 231818200 0.244 141100.322 44100 00 0.250 0.272 0.333 0.396 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 132389104 0.267 23850.332 43000 11 0.000 0.291 0.347 0.552 OK
Jhonny PeredaC 3410819 0.176 240.282 43000 11 0.000 0.241 0.323 0.349 OK
Colt Emerson3B 4012937 0.287 7270.366 43000 10 0.000 0.268 0.329 0.588 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37336 33 43 0.182

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gleyber Torres2B 148546143 0.262 11540.395 43000 11 0.000 0.302 0.410 0.423 OK
Kevin McGonigleSS 245940281 0.299 141070.398 43000 11 0.000 0.265 0.357 0.382 OK
Dillon DinglerC 211786193 0.246 521580.333 44000 02 0.000 0.247 0.307 0.530 OK
Kerry CarpenterDH 12138787 0.225 24690.302 44100 00 0.250 0.261 0.316 0.524 OK
Riley GreeneLF 241880274 0.311 191150.408 44100 00 0.250 0.300 0.386 0.483 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 222772162 0.210 33840.314 44100 01 0.250 0.218 0.300 0.415 OK
Colt Keith3B 168545153 0.281 0230.328 44200 00 0.500 0.207 0.258 0.279 OK
Matt VierlingCF 163594122 0.205 15840.277 43011 02 0.000 0.166 0.244 0.298 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 14149487 0.176 13370.234 33100 00 0.333 0.178 0.230 0.352 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35326 11 27 0.188

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryce MillerStarter 420.31.77 0.8878.920 5.14111383 5.1 3 1
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 2421.55.02 1.34914.735 1.21000121 1.2 1 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 1713.60.66 0.8828.613 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 2924.41.84 1.3118.924 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Keider MonteroStarter 1158.93.82 1.0366.643 6.05332399 6.0 3 3
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2725.41.42 1.5356.017 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Will VestMiddle Reliever 2017.17.89 1.69611.622 1.01000017 1.0 0 0
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 2723.15.45 1.7759.424 1.00001017 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 3-1


San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs

SF 26-39 (4.15 RPG / 4.91 RA)
1 - 3
CHC 34-31 (4.65 RPG / 4.58 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 3-1 TARGET: SF 1 - 3 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SF00010000013
CHC10002000x36

SF Recent Form

Win%0.186
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-153.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.097
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-182.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

SF Season Quality

Record26-38
Win%0.406
Run Diff-48
RD/Game-0.750

CHC Season Quality

Record33-31
Win%0.516
Run Diff3
RD/Game0.047

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9609; margin adjustment: 0.4036; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Casey SchmittLF 202804247 0.307 541390.349 44000 02 0.000 0.273 0.293 0.545 OK
Rafael Devers1B 236922233 0.253 291260.300 44000 02 0.000 0.221 0.273 0.368 OK
Luis Arraez2B 233948320 0.338 101020.379 44100 00 0.250 0.327 0.366 0.459 OK
Willy AdamesSS 2391001256 0.256 34970.291 33100 01 0.333 0.274 0.328 0.565 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 201791236 0.298 12770.342 33111 00 0.333 0.354 0.381 0.482 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 5819043 0.226 590.308 33000 02 0.000 0.294 0.370 0.429 OK
Matt Chapman3B 235902205 0.227 8910.317 33000 02 0.000 0.250 0.325 0.473 OK
Eric HaaseC 3410631 0.292 12220.324 33000 01 0.000 0.250 0.294 0.548 OK
Drew GilbertCF 11839798 0.247 9340.298 33000 01 0.000 0.231 0.266 0.375 OK
TEAM TOTALS 30303 11 011 0.100

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 240883217 0.246 291130.339 43000 01 0.000 0.280 0.344 0.479 OK
Michael ConfortoDH 9025675 0.293 12420.410 44213 02 0.500 0.185 0.300 0.379 OK
Michael Busch1B 254936223 0.238 301580.382 44000 02 0.000 0.255 0.376 0.410 OK
Alex Bregman3B 2611078280 0.260 18830.348 43110 11 0.333 0.232 0.310 0.351 OK
Ian HappLF 245958231 0.241 651540.360 43110 11 0.333 0.260 0.346 0.540 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 188724186 0.257 34900.349 44000 02 0.000 0.256 0.345 0.468 OK
Nico HoernerSS 2611098282 0.257 211620.341 44100 01 0.250 0.245 0.324 0.338 OK
Pedro Ramirez2B 11319 0.290 040.371 33000 00 0.000 0.160 0.246 0.308 OK
Carson KellyC 153563176 0.313 6640.390 32100 10 0.500 0.269 0.324 0.344 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34306 33 310 0.200

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Landen RouppStarter 1262.64.31 1.34210.472 5.043324108 5.0 4 3
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 2623.74.18 1.39211.430 1.00000217 1.0 2 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 2625.72.45 0.9348.123 1.11000223 1.1 2 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 2015.14.77 1.72214.925 0.21001217 0.2 2 0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ben BrownStarter 1750.51.96 0.9509.453 5.23110880 5.2 8 1
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 1512.52.16 1.36010.114 2.10000125 2.1 1 0
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 2623.12.73 1.47212.532 1.00000218 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 3-1


Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins

TB 37-24 (4.62 RPG / 4.46 RA)
3 - 4
MIA 30-35 (4.18 RPG / 4.54 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 4-3 TARGET: TB 3 - 4 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 52.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
1234567891011RH
TB1000100001036
MIA0010000101148

TB Recent Form

Win%0.250
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-117.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.293
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-154.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TB Season Quality

Record37-23
Win%0.617
Run Diff11
RD/Game0.183

MIA Season Quality

Record29-35
Win%0.453
Run Diff-24
RD/Game-0.375

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8036; margin adjustment: -0.3375; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 225882281 0.319 331570.398 55210 01 0.400 0.304 0.373 0.470 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 234870250 0.287 441930.384 54212 11 0.500 0.252 0.373 0.440 OK
Junior Caminero3B 239939254 0.271 581300.370 54111 10 0.250 0.306 0.418 0.520 OK
Richie PalaciosLF 121377103 0.273 4600.383 54000 12 0.000 0.189 0.307 0.280 OK
Ben Williamson2B 133445122 0.274 0570.355 54000 10 0.000 0.254 0.324 0.343 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 188698132 0.189 15750.265 55000 01 0.000 0.200 0.284 0.376 OK
Taylor WallsSS 148495100 0.202 0540.303 54100 11 0.250 0.208 0.297 0.289 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 186413 0.203 6130.271 54000 11 0.000 0.186 0.257 0.303 OK
Nick FortesC 139458113 0.247 4380.288 55000 04 0.000 0.203 0.226 0.284 OK
TEAM TOTALS 45396 33 611 0.154

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 245930297 0.319 26850.405 65100 10 0.200 0.275 0.367 0.409 OK
Otto LopezSS 239963333 0.346 201090.376 66111 02 0.167 0.313 0.340 0.465 OK
Kyle StowersRF 146553115 0.208 13450.298 54111 12 0.250 0.213 0.279 0.375 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 10434670 0.202 7610.269 54100 11 0.250 0.243 0.299 0.465 OK
Leo JiménezDH 5316842 0.250 040.316 55200 01 0.400 0.167 0.236 0.218 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 125431122 0.283 4790.322 55111 01 0.200 0.223 0.265 0.336 OK
Esteury RuizCF 4613026 0.200 9180.229 54000 10 0.000 0.141 0.195 0.359 OK
Connor Norby1B 189638141 0.221 18630.329 54100 11 0.250 0.190 0.271 0.305 OK
Joe MackC 6721947 0.215 1290.262 53011 00 0.000 0.220 0.266 0.328 OK
TEAM TOTALS 47408 44 58 0.200

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane McClanahanStarter 1153.62.52 1.0458.953 6.04112596 6.0 5 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 2724.42.21 1.06610.729 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 2526.84.37 1.38111.133 1.11111224 1.1 2 1
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 2622.83.16 0.9657.519 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
Griffin JaxReliever 1731.24.33 1.4749.232 1.11222037 1.1 0 2

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Lake BacharStarter 1929.73.64 1.01010.635 5.04224595 5.0 5 2
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 1815.47.01 1.36413.423 1.10001221 1.1 2 0
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 2519.94.07 1.10611.826 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 2220.33.99 1.28111.125 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 2520.54.83 1.95111.927 2.11111236 2.1 2 1
John KingMiddle Reliever 2821.32.96 0.8458.520 0.10000115 0.1 1 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11)


Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks

WAS 33-32 (5.4 RPG / 5.28 RA)
4 - 5
ARI 33-31 (4.34 RPG / 4.56 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 5-4 TARGET: WAS 2 - 5 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 55.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
WAS10000002147
ARI02000030x59

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.258
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-148.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.322
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-90.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

WAS Season Quality

Record31-32
Win%0.492
Run Diff-10
RD/Game-0.159

ARI Season Quality

Record33-29
Win%0.532
Run Diff4
RD/Game0.065

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2835; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodDH 2731052303 0.288 771950.430 43000 12 0.000 0.263 0.390 0.548 OK
Curtis Mead3B 151501129 0.257 33900.375 43111 10 0.333 0.202 0.302 0.370 OK
Andrés Chaparro1B 236712 0.179 0140.257 44112 00 0.250 0.199 0.267 0.302 OK
CJ AbramsSS 245931278 0.299 492070.389 44110 01 0.250 0.296 0.369 0.522 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 3615034 0.227 480.261 44100 01 0.250 0.210 0.231 0.306 OK
Daylen LileLF 2531043266 0.255 331270.312 44000 02 0.000 0.251 0.303 0.406 OK
Jacob YoungCF 198742174 0.235 25930.287 44211 00 0.500 0.223 0.267 0.362 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 195668130 0.195 0630.296 44000 00 0.000 0.219 0.296 0.260 OK
Keibert RuizC 116404105 0.260 18920.278 44100 01 0.250 0.272 0.294 0.485 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 44 27 0.206

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 230974267 0.274 421510.320 55211 01 0.400 0.231 0.286 0.446 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 230853254 0.298 341300.396 54000 12 0.000 0.275 0.349 0.557 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 130469122 0.260 13740.326 42000 20 0.000 0.255 0.344 0.387 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 201696191 0.274 301180.357 44113 00 0.250 0.250 0.320 0.443 OK
Pavin SmithDH 13324 0.125 050.317 44210 00 0.500 0.183 0.329 0.262 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 7526472 0.273 0280.338 42110 10 0.500 0.201 0.269 0.308 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 225792180 0.227 10810.342 44211 01 0.500 0.271 0.359 0.379 OK
LuJames Groover1B 000 0.000 000.000 44000 00 0.000 0.261 0.339 0.449
Tommy TroyLF 216724 0.358 110.434 44100 00 0.250 0.280 0.356 0.469 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38339 55 44 0.273

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zack LittellStarter 1258.45.09 1.3875.435 5.07222392 5.0 3 2
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 1615.63.46 1.47410.418 0.00000020 0.0 0 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1835.32.80 1.1338.433 1.12332025 1.1 0 3
Orlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever 1615.41.75 1.0397.613 1.20000121 1.2 1 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eduardo RodriguezStarter 1271.42.27 1.2046.652 6.22110597 6.2 5 1
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 0.1222215 0.1 1 2
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.02110019 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-4