MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

June 5, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
BAL @ TOR1 - 20 - 2TORTORTOR wins 2-054%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
BOS @ NYY1 - 20 - 2NYYNYYNYY wins 2-056%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHW @ PHI3 - 53 - 5PHIPHIPHI wins 5-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CIN @ STL3 - 51 - 7STLSTLSTL wins 7-155%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CLE @ TEX3 - 14 - 1CLECLECLE wins 4-155%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
KC @ MIN3 - 25 - 2KCKCKC wins 5-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAA @ LAD4 - 52 - 5LADLADLAD wins 5-254%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIL @ COL5 - 44 - 7MILCOLCOL wins 7-452%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYM @ SD2 - 32 - 3SDSDSD wins 3-252%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
OAK @ HOU1 - 32 - 3HOUHOUHOU wins 3-255%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PIT @ ATL2 - 32 - 4ATLATLATL wins 4-255%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SEA @ DET4 - 24 - 2SEASEASEA wins 4-256%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SF @ CHC2 - 33 - 4CHCCHCCHC wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TB @ MIA4 - 24 - 2TBTBTB wins 4-255%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
WAS @ ARI6 - 47 - 5WASWASWAS wins 7-553%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

BAL 30-33 (4.57 RPG / 5.16 RA)
0 - 2
TOR 30-33 (4.08 RPG / 4.19 RA)
WINNER: TOR wins 2-0 TARGET: BAL 1 - 2 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 53.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
BAL00000000004
TOR00001100x25

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.203
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-147.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.237
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-116.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record30-33
Win%0.476
Run Diff-37
RD/Game-0.587

TOR Season Quality

Record30-33
Win%0.476
Run Diff-7
RD/Game-0.111

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4762; margin adjustment: 0.2; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 257943249 0.264 9740.409 44000 02 0.000 0.272 0.411 0.368 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 2591107233 0.210 541370.266 44200 00 0.500 0.212 0.263 0.383 OK
Adley RutschmanC 165644171 0.266 311140.337 44000 00 0.000 0.245 0.327 0.424 OK
Pete Alonso1B 249955233 0.244 421520.325 44000 02 0.000 0.276 0.348 0.455 OK
Samuel BasalloDH 167608165 0.271 32900.332 33000 01 0.000 0.275 0.358 0.484 OK
Coby Mayo3B 155514110 0.214 22750.289 33000 00 0.000 0.229 0.289 0.413 OK
Colton CowserRF 11732968 0.207 9430.297 33100 00 0.333 0.240 0.338 0.392 OK
Leody TaverasCF 165559154 0.275 9910.365 33000 01 0.000 0.205 0.287 0.320 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 319922 0.222 5190.303 33100 01 0.333 0.223 0.321 0.353 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31314 00 07 0.129

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 166678144 0.212 23650.290 44000 01 0.000 0.206 0.272 0.345 OK
Nathan LukesRF 7525785 0.331 1360.376 44100 01 0.250 0.323 0.354 0.455 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 231850251 0.295 12990.393 33111 00 0.333 0.293 0.374 0.393 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 217819222 0.271 24750.348 33000 02 0.000 0.241 0.312 0.396 OK
Ernie Clement2B 227910278 0.305 22900.327 33100 01 0.333 0.321 0.339 0.455 OK
Jesús SánchezLF 179602166 0.276 251050.318 33111 00 0.333 0.207 0.235 0.351 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 229856190 0.222 501340.312 33100 02 0.333 0.241 0.325 0.441 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 200716162 0.226 251110.261 33000 01 0.000 0.187 0.224 0.312 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 11034491 0.265 18450.363 33000 00 0.000 0.216 0.324 0.386 OK
TEAM TOTALS 29295 22 08 0.172

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon YoungStarter 840.93.52 1.4437.333 5.25110686 5.2 6 1
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2824.00.75 0.66711.230 1.20000118 1.2 1 0
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 1510.88.33 1.85211.714 0.20110112 0.2 1 1

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trey YesavageStarter 736.32.23 1.1859.739 5.14000688 5.1 6 0
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 2929.30.31 1.09213.243 1.1000004 1.1 0 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 2925.12.51 1.1955.716 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Braydon FisherMiddle Reliever 3229.23.08 1.09610.835 1.10000112 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

TOR wins 2-0


Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

BOS 26-35 (3.98 RPG / 4.08 RA)
0 - 2
NYY 37-25 (5.08 RPG / 3.58 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 2-0 TARGET: BOS 1 - 2 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 55.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
BOS00000000008
NYY00000110x27

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.241
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-109.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.286
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-74.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record26-35
Win%0.426
Run Diff-6
RD/Game-0.098

NYY Season Quality

Record37-25
Win%0.597
Run Diff93
RD/Game1.500

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.8542; margin adjustment: 0.7788; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 226943203 0.215 381360.286 55100 01 0.200 0.208 0.267 0.401 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 204777221 0.284 18900.350 44000 02 0.000 0.263 0.305 0.399 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 236930262 0.282 271040.348 44100 01 0.250 0.260 0.331 0.420 OK
Willson Contreras1B 225830236 0.284 501590.380 44000 00 0.000 0.285 0.369 0.493 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 174600115 0.192 5750.267 43100 10 0.333 0.231 0.274 0.365 OK
Isiah Kiner-FalefaSS 7422271 0.320 4360.403 44100 01 0.250 0.252 0.333 0.321 OK
Andruw Monasterio2B 9734389 0.259 6440.310 43200 10 0.667 0.162 0.212 0.298 OK
Mickey GasperDH 5118262 0.341 0120.386 44100 02 0.250 0.267 0.317 0.367 OK
Connor WongC 7021552 0.242 0320.332 44100 03 0.250 0.173 0.254 0.292 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 00 210 0.229

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 215788167 0.212 321330.328 54000 11 0.000 0.242 0.359 0.401 OK
Ben RiceDH 218828248 0.300 701720.401 54300 10 0.750 0.297 0.399 0.583 OK
Paul Goldschmidt1B 114428122 0.285 25700.366 55100 00 0.200 0.297 0.362 0.540 OK
Cody BellingerLF 240878240 0.273 361630.378 42200 20 1.000 0.271 0.378 0.435 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 221835207 0.248 28940.328 43000 10 0.000 0.236 0.311 0.408 OK
Spencer JonesRF 246312 0.190 080.292 44111 01 0.250 0.219 0.305 0.277 OK
Anthony VolpeSS 4615546 0.297 6360.435 43011 11 0.000 0.248 0.377 0.414 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 157524105 0.200 18670.261 44000 00 0.000 0.226 0.275 0.389 OK
Austin WellsC 15650997 0.191 17320.308 42000 21 0.000 0.177 0.293 0.260 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39317 22 84 0.226

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sonny GrayStarter 1049.33.10 1.2177.541 5.251154106 5.2 4 1
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1918.20.49 0.87912.425 2.11113040 2.1 0 1
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 118.64.19 1.51214.714 0.01000015 0.0 0 0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan WeathersStarter 1161.93.63 1.17910.975 6.140028100 6.1 8 0
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2523.64.58 1.61011.129 1.0200018 1.0 1 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 3020.02.70 1.60014.833 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2819.14.24 1.4666.113 0.20000014 0.2 0 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 3023.62.29 1.65313.034 0.01000018 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 2-0


Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies

CHW 33-29 (4.73 RPG / 4.55 RA)
3 - 5
PHI 33-29 (3.9 RPG / 4.26 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 5-3 TARGET: CHW 3 - 5 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 53.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CHW00010200034
PHI00002300x59

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.271
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.4
Run Diff-64.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.190
Avg Runs0.7
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-152.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record33-29
Win%0.532
Run Diff11
RD/Game0.177

PHI Season Quality

Record33-29
Win%0.532
Run Diff-22
RD/Game-0.355

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5323; margin adjustment: -0.2235; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chase Meidroth2B 234904239 0.264 24880.338 43000 00 0.000 0.264 0.339 0.390 OK
Randal GrichukDH 4211036 0.327 8410.362 43110 10 0.333 0.235 0.251 0.427 OK
Miguel Vargas1B 244904210 0.232 581510.364 42112 11 0.500 0.249 0.363 0.507 OK
Colson Montgomery3B 235886208 0.235 591540.330 43000 11 0.000 0.226 0.287 0.483 OK
Edgar QueroC 13043985 0.194 6620.267 44111 01 0.250 0.221 0.285 0.315 OK
Derek HillRF 7117836 0.202 6150.253 44100 00 0.250 0.129 0.183 0.206 OK
Sam AntonacciLF 154546144 0.264 5600.373 44000 01 0.000 0.269 0.320 0.384 OK
Luisangel AcuñaSS 11234760 0.173 0220.238 44000 04 0.000 0.186 0.245 0.219 OK
Tristan PetersCF 153466136 0.292 8500.354 43000 01 0.000 0.269 0.321 0.398 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36304 33 39 0.133

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 245953234 0.246 991860.359 44000 03 0.000 0.232 0.343 0.520 OK
Trea TurnerSS 2461058246 0.233 34900.279 44210 00 0.500 0.241 0.277 0.359 OK
Bryce Harper1B 236856235 0.275 581500.383 43000 10 0.000 0.242 0.378 0.474 OK
Alec Bohm3B 215809175 0.216 181010.275 44100 01 0.250 0.226 0.276 0.343 OK
Edmundo Sosa2B 9229456 0.190 6430.227 43210 10 0.667 0.137 0.158 0.254 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 135472117 0.248 10420.323 44000 01 0.000 0.219 0.266 0.349 OK
Brandon MarshLF 198738251 0.340 231120.371 44111 00 0.250 0.329 0.363 0.469 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 219780154 0.197 13700.284 43111 11 0.333 0.185 0.247 0.321 OK
Steward BerroaCF 241 0.250 010.250 44213 00 0.500 0.202 0.216 0.290 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36339 55 36 0.273

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Anthony KayStarter 1255.03.93 1.4556.942 6.032235108 6.0 5 2
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 0.05330016 0.0 0 3
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.01000018 1.0 0 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 2420.91.72 1.4839.923 1.00000115 1.0 1 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jesús LuzardoStarter 1264.94.44 1.35610.878 5.143315100 5.1 5 3
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 2019.21.41 0.88514.531 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 2725.53.88 1.29410.229 1.20002229 1.2 2 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 2621.02.57 1.33310.725 1.00000115 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 5-3


Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals

CIN 31-30 (4.33 RPG / 5.0 RA)
1 - 7
STL 32-28 (4.28 RPG / 4.48 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 7-1 TARGET: CIN 3 - 5 STL (STL) Confidence: 55.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CIN10000000016
STL02100004x710

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.246
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-177.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.125
Avg Runs0.7
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-121.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CIN Season Quality

Record31-30
Win%0.508
Run Diff-41
RD/Game-0.672

STL Season Quality

Record32-28
Win%0.533
Run Diff-12
RD/Game-0.200

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5098; margin adjustment: 0.2141; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Blake DunnCF 5825077 0.308 6170.371 54000 10 0.000 0.207 0.260 0.313 OK
JJ BledayLF 118452126 0.279 341040.371 53100 21 0.333 0.265 0.350 0.562 OK
Spencer Steer2B 213785210 0.268 32890.342 53000 20 0.000 0.289 0.366 0.522 OK
Sal Stewart1B 244912226 0.248 491600.357 55100 01 0.200 0.229 0.333 0.382 OK
Nathaniel LoweDH 134449128 0.285 36930.377 44211 00 0.500 0.178 0.278 0.390 OK
Eugenio Suárez3B 124454105 0.231 11530.308 44000 01 0.000 0.199 0.286 0.332 OK
Noelvi MarteRF 319514 0.147 000.214 44200 00 0.500 0.171 0.229 0.215 OK
Tyler StephensonC 163537103 0.192 17740.300 43000 12 0.000 0.187 0.289 0.299 OK
Edwin ArroyoSS 381 0.125 000.125 43000 11 0.000 0.222 0.234 0.319 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40336 11 76 0.182

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Lars NootbaarLF 000 0.000 000.000 54010 12 0.000 0.254 0.326 0.407
Iván HerreraDH 249947245 0.259 281160.385 53314 10 1.000 0.243 0.330 0.358 OK
Alec Burleson1B 234945265 0.280 311630.345 54110 11 0.250 0.287 0.342 0.432 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 230899286 0.318 692000.384 44000 02 0.000 0.285 0.338 0.478 OK
Bryan Torres2B 249023 0.256 040.337 44211 00 0.500 0.241 0.315 0.382 OK
Masyn WinnSS 205791182 0.230 6910.297 43212 10 0.667 0.230 0.290 0.345 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 204742169 0.228 251100.302 44110 02 0.250 0.191 0.266 0.330 OK
Jimmy CrooksC 393 0.333 010.333 44000 01 0.000 0.256 0.268 0.437 OK
Victor Scott IICF 16147982 0.171 9270.245 44110 00 0.250 0.175 0.248 0.250 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393410 77 48 0.294

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brady SingerStarter 1149.66.35 1.7346.536 4.07333592 4.0 5 3
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 2521.65.42 1.5749.222 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 3023.24.27 1.68110.928 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Sam MollMiddle Reliever 2821.22.97 1.27411.928 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 119.44.79 1.2779.610 1.03441026 1.0 0 4

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle LeahyStarter 1154.34.31 1.5847.646 5.06114597 5.0 5 1
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2725.74.20 1.16710.229 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2822.44.42 1.56211.228 1.00002021 1.0 0 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 2621.43.36 1.2629.322 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 2719.96.33 2.06014.031 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Gordon GraceffoMiddle Reliever 2625.32.13 1.0675.315 0.00000012 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

STL wins 7-1


Cleveland Guardians @ Texas Rangers

CLE 36-28 (4.12 RPG / 4.03 RA)
4 - 1
TEX 30-32 (4.02 RPG / 3.87 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 4-1 TARGET: CLE 3 - 1 TEX (CLE) Confidence: 55.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CLE00300100046
TEX00000000114

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.333
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-117.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.328
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-108.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record36-28
Win%0.562
Run Diff6
RD/Game0.094

TEX Season Quality

Record30-32
Win%0.484
Run Diff9
RD/Game0.145

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0665; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Travis Bazzana2B 118431126 0.292 12520.401 53000 22 0.000 0.246 0.326 0.392 OK
José Ramírez3B 256951227 0.239 371290.353 55100 01 0.200 0.273 0.368 0.479 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 220852218 0.256 321480.332 54210 10 0.500 0.238 0.309 0.368 OK
Kyle ManzardoDH 173616134 0.218 18610.299 54000 10 0.000 0.244 0.315 0.454 OK
Rhys Hoskins1B 15548399 0.205 23850.347 53000 22 0.000 0.225 0.365 0.461 OK
Daniel SchneemannCF 163563136 0.242 17770.330 44112 01 0.250 0.230 0.317 0.350 OK
Steven KwanLF 234884186 0.210 4560.327 44111 00 0.250 0.212 0.310 0.265 OK
Austin HedgesC 8526767 0.251 5190.325 43111 10 0.333 0.226 0.304 0.333 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 209700208 0.297 141050.375 43000 02 0.000 0.247 0.308 0.355 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41336 44 78 0.182

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Wyatt LangfordLF 8435286 0.244 3170.277 44100 00 0.250 0.246 0.285 0.363 OK
Corey SeagerSS 182680124 0.182 32890.294 43000 11 0.000 0.164 0.258 0.315 OK
Josh Jung3B 213827252 0.305 27980.363 44111 00 0.250 0.298 0.349 0.488 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 241956250 0.262 29930.343 43000 10 0.000 0.223 0.278 0.348 OK
Ezequiel Duran2B 170595180 0.303 141100.358 43100 00 0.333 0.230 0.295 0.385 OK
Justin FoscueDH 5818447 0.255 7270.312 44000 02 0.000 0.161 0.212 0.307 OK
Jake Burger1B 221853201 0.236 381480.288 44000 00 0.000 0.224 0.291 0.368 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 9532364 0.198 11340.287 33000 03 0.000 0.182 0.278 0.280 OK
Michael HelmanCF 15407 0.175 000.250 33100 01 0.333 0.197 0.249 0.319 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 11 27 0.129

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 1267.02.28 1.1049.974 6.00002694 6.0 6 0
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2828.22.87 1.09913.743 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 1814.03.86 1.4299.014 1.02000019 1.0 0 0
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 1713.22.05 1.36413.620 1.02110119 1.0 1 1

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kumar RockerStarter 1154.63.63 1.3557.344 5.043345103 5.0 5 3
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 2125.61.05 0.4699.126 1.11110222 1.1 2 1
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 2325.51.76 0.8246.017 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 2721.83.72 1.6518.721 0.20002016 0.2 0 0
Jalen BeeksMiddle Reliever 2720.14.48 1.6429.020 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-1


Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

KC 25-38 (3.9 RPG / 4.67 RA)
5 - 2
MIN 29-35 (4.62 RPG / 5.03 RA)
WINNER: KC wins 5-2 TARGET: KC 3 - 2 MIN (KC) Confidence: 53.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
KC00011300057
MIN00000010124

KC Recent Form

Win%0.138
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-171.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.237
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-149.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

KC Season Quality

Record25-38
Win%0.397
Run Diff-48
RD/Game-0.762

MIN Season Quality

Record29-35
Win%0.453
Run Diff-26
RD/Game-0.406

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4401; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenDH 192662152 0.230 241030.316 54111 11 0.250 0.196 0.271 0.326 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 2501003288 0.287 401120.356 55100 02 0.200 0.252 0.338 0.411 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 234882173 0.196 241100.294 55000 01 0.000 0.202 0.298 0.331 OK
Salvador PerezC 228880195 0.222 421120.274 42110 10 0.500 0.203 0.244 0.318 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 186650145 0.223 19430.300 44211 01 0.500 0.197 0.279 0.336 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 184606135 0.223 11710.350 43000 10 0.000 0.217 0.329 0.306 OK
Michael Massey2B 12038193 0.244 13530.261 44113 00 0.250 0.229 0.256 0.442 OK
Nick Loftin3B 7622648 0.212 1500.317 43110 10 0.333 0.210 0.301 0.346 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 158515135 0.262 11420.313 44000 00 0.000 0.221 0.262 0.326 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39347 55 45 0.206

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 224958257 0.268 841360.329 43000 11 0.000 0.263 0.322 0.511 OK
Brooks Lee3B 214813202 0.248 261250.305 44000 00 0.000 0.234 0.282 0.427 OK
Kody Clemens1B 173631145 0.230 24720.315 44000 01 0.000 0.198 0.259 0.426 OK
Josh BellDH 223842188 0.223 211280.287 44211 00 0.500 0.273 0.327 0.392 OK
Orlando ArciaSS 248130 0.370 040.400 43200 11 0.667 0.180 0.225 0.261 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 216802195 0.243 5840.324 44000 00 0.000 0.255 0.327 0.334 OK
Austin MartinRF 180658188 0.286 10750.384 42011 11 0.000 0.213 0.298 0.297 OK
Ryan KreidlerLF 5217044 0.259 9280.330 33000 02 0.000 0.205 0.268 0.380 OK
Alex JacksonC 12419 0.220 010.220 33000 01 0.000 0.235 0.245 0.356 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34304 22 37 0.133

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael WachaStarter 1275.13.24 1.1197.865 6.10003692 6.1 6 0
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 2321.45.47 1.8228.420 1.02110018 1.0 0 1
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 1917.44.14 1.2648.817 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 2522.32.02 1.12111.729 0.22110117 0.2 1 1

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zebby MatthewsStarter 423.14.68 1.0399.424 5.25553499 5.2 4 5
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 1511.00.82 1.00014.718 1.02001123 1.0 1 0
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 2618.24.45 1.8688.417 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 2525.04.32 1.6809.727 1.10000019 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

KC wins 5-2


Los Angeles Angels @ Los Angeles Dodgers

LAA 24-39 (4.38 RPG / 5.19 RA)
2 - 5
LAD 40-23 (5.24 RPG / 3.13 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 5-2 TARGET: LAA 4 - 5 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 54.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
LAA10010000024
LAD00140000x510

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.246
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-159.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.288
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-72.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAA Season Quality

Record24-39
Win%0.381
Run Diff-51
RD/Game-0.810

LAD Season Quality

Record40-22
Win%0.645
Run Diff134
RD/Game2.161

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 3.3671; margin adjustment: 1.4; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 2601026246 0.240 451260.350 43000 11 0.000 0.234 0.335 0.412 OK
Mike TroutCF 256904227 0.251 631480.422 43000 11 0.000 0.248 0.416 0.474 OK
Wade MecklerLF 248128 0.346 5190.384 44211 01 0.500 0.285 0.326 0.467 OK
Jorge SolerDH 225849187 0.220 361370.305 44000 02 0.000 0.219 0.292 0.368 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 128478119 0.249 141010.314 43100 11 0.333 0.243 0.308 0.411 OK
Jo AdellRF 240944229 0.243 331340.289 43000 11 0.000 0.215 0.235 0.349 OK
Donovan Walton3B 259726 0.268 010.304 44111 02 0.250 0.246 0.284 0.354 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 163566161 0.284 27650.354 44000 02 0.000 0.253 0.284 0.416 OK
Logan O'HoppeC 12642996 0.224 5480.317 33000 00 0.000 0.194 0.267 0.304 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 22 411 0.129

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 243939266 0.283 411540.410 43110 11 0.333 0.344 0.445 0.565 OK
Andy PagesCF 233891277 0.311 582220.360 44211 00 0.500 0.283 0.333 0.517 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 234885239 0.270 321270.368 44000 01 0.000 0.284 0.358 0.489 OK
Mookie BettsSS 9841975 0.179 29730.225 44110 00 0.250 0.188 0.240 0.335 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 234902229 0.254 221220.346 44100 01 0.250 0.271 0.355 0.445 OK
Will SmithC 178666171 0.257 22990.334 43213 10 0.667 0.268 0.355 0.444 OK
Alex CallLF 6620556 0.273 0380.393 44100 01 0.250 0.200 0.320 0.281 OK
Miguel Rojas2B 9529579 0.268 4350.298 44100 01 0.250 0.255 0.290 0.357 OK
Santiago Espinal3B 4512931 0.240 3170.267 44111 01 0.250 0.222 0.268 0.377 OK
TEAM TOTALS 363410 55 26 0.294

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Reid DetmersStarter 1265.24.83 1.22711.382 5.16551695 5.1 6 5
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 108.44.29 1.31012.912 0.21000014 0.2 0 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 2124.62.56 1.26010.629 1.1000105 1.1 0 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 2616.02.25 1.81211.220 0.20000015 0.2 0 0
Drew PomeranzMiddle Reliever 2116.86.43 1.9058.015 0.03000016 0.0 0 0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Roki SasakiStarter 1050.34.65 1.3728.950 5.242226102 5.2 6 2
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 2824.62.56 0.77211.030 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 2019.22.34 0.99011.224 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 2716.82.68 1.19015.028 0.20000113 0.2 1 0
Blake TreinenMiddle Reliever 2215.21.78 1.25010.718 0.20000111 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-2


Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies

MIL 37-23 (5.02 RPG / 3.53 RA)
4 - 7
COL 24-39 (4.32 RPG / 5.63 RA)
WINNER: COL wins 7-4 TARGET: MIL 5 - 4 COL (MIL) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIL00001003047
COL40300000x79

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.365
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-66.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.190
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-213.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record37-23
Win%0.617
Run Diff89
RD/Game1.483

COL Season Quality

Record24-39
Win%0.381
Run Diff-83
RD/Game-1.317

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -3.1544; margin adjustment: -1.3248; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Christian YelichDH 104404119 0.295 15630.358 54111 10 0.250 0.307 0.373 0.475 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 95408118 0.289 7340.338 55000 01 0.000 0.331 0.392 0.566 OK
Brice Turang2B 233869251 0.289 341540.409 55100 00 0.200 0.306 0.421 0.495 OK
William ContrerasC 223900267 0.297 171570.367 43210 10 0.667 0.258 0.323 0.357 OK
Jake Bauers1B 186698198 0.284 361330.358 43000 11 0.000 0.245 0.351 0.497 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 171590143 0.242 71060.355 44113 01 0.250 0.236 0.351 0.376 OK
Sal FrelickRF 191693155 0.224 14680.291 43000 11 0.000 0.246 0.305 0.344 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 171619134 0.216 0630.286 44100 00 0.250 0.174 0.255 0.232 OK
David HamiltonSS 148474112 0.236 2330.328 43110 10 0.333 0.246 0.336 0.365 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39347 44 54 0.206

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyCF 143481124 0.258 10690.297 44110 01 0.250 0.262 0.307 0.459 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 140516129 0.250 11590.325 44110 00 0.250 0.232 0.279 0.349 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 218821231 0.281 311180.359 42000 20 0.000 0.260 0.337 0.431 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 216857211 0.246 57940.313 44111 02 0.250 0.228 0.297 0.482 OK
Troy JohnstonLF 188682225 0.330 10960.391 43212 10 0.667 0.297 0.350 0.423 OK
Willi Castro3B 176644166 0.258 9750.317 44213 00 0.500 0.224 0.296 0.337 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 207784172 0.219 10820.266 44111 00 0.250 0.199 0.245 0.351 OK
Sterlin ThompsonDH 329216 0.174 080.290 44110 03 0.250 0.135 0.226 0.215 OK
Edouard Julien2B 154533120 0.225 10600.326 44000 03 0.000 0.225 0.354 0.312 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36339 77 39 0.273

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon SproatStarter 1146.26.62 1.62310.152 4.18772687 4.1 6 7
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 2222.02.45 0.90911.528 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 2420.74.35 1.35310.023 0.01001016 0.0 0 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 2733.62.41 1.45813.952 1.1000004 1.1 0 0
DL HallMiddle Reliever 2427.52.29 1.38210.532 1.00000120 1.0 1 0
Grant AndersonMiddle Reliever 2521.03.86 1.2868.119 0.10000116 0.1 1 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan FeltnerStarter 625.34.98 1.3446.819 4.22114293 4.2 2 1
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1730.71.47 1.0107.626 2.11000032 2.1 0 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 2523.86.81 1.97511.731 1.03330222 1.0 2 3
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 2415.44.68 1.94813.423 1.01001020 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

COL wins 7-4


New York Mets @ San Diego Padres

NYM 27-35 (4.05 RPG / 4.26 RA)
2 - 3
SD 32-29 (3.85 RPG / 4.02 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 3-2 TARGET: NYM 2 - 3 SD (SD) Confidence: 52.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
NYM00001001026
SD00010000234

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.364
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-107.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SD Recent Form

Win%0.179
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-133.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record27-35
Win%0.435
Run Diff-13
RD/Game-0.210

SD Season Quality

Record32-29
Win%0.525
Run Diff-10
RD/Game-0.164

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1794; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 206788208 0.264 141000.333 44200 01 0.500 0.276 0.331 0.475 OK
Bo BichetteSS 2481025234 0.228 241350.276 44000 02 0.000 0.226 0.286 0.302 OK
Juan SotoLF 170644194 0.301 461080.397 43111 11 0.333 0.282 0.367 0.511 OK
Jared Young1B 319230 0.326 270.374 44100 01 0.250 0.190 0.253 0.362 OK
A.J. EwingCF 6622860 0.263 4220.371 44000 00 0.000 0.242 0.335 0.337 OK
Marcus Semien2B 226832194 0.233 21940.282 44000 01 0.000 0.241 0.300 0.422 OK
Brett Baty3B 186668165 0.247 14900.311 44000 03 0.000 0.217 0.271 0.318 OK
MJ MelendezDH 9123656 0.237 8240.356 33111 01 0.333 0.219 0.300 0.444 OK
Luis TorrensC 9929859 0.198 0330.258 33100 00 0.333 0.177 0.213 0.263 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34336 22 110 0.182

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 233898237 0.264 1700.340 44000 02 0.000 0.264 0.322 0.357 OK
Gavin SheetsDH 175593147 0.248 33870.332 43110 10 0.333 0.199 0.302 0.401 OK
Manny Machado3B 223807141 0.175 411240.267 43000 11 0.000 0.184 0.260 0.381 OK
Ty France1B 105358105 0.293 20610.329 44000 02 0.000 0.253 0.301 0.448 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 222866178 0.206 19920.280 43211 10 0.667 0.227 0.296 0.375 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 215796198 0.249 301050.319 43000 11 0.000 0.211 0.292 0.341 OK
Bryce JohnsonLF 3710218 0.176 060.263 44000 03 0.000 0.129 0.213 0.210 OK
Sung-Mun Song2B 276813 0.191 0140.304 43000 00 0.000 0.123 0.244 0.201 OK
Rodolfo DuránC 26667 0.106 480.262 42112 21 0.500 0.145 0.262 0.258 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36294 33 610 0.138

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Christian ScottStarter 728.73.14 1.46311.938 5.01113882 5.0 8 1
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 2218.64.84 1.45215.031 0.00000014 0.0 0 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 2524.92.89 1.0849.827 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 2618.91.90 1.53412.927 1.01001120 1.0 1 0
Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever 2625.32.85 1.2658.524 1.02221123 1.0 1 2

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael KingStarter 1266.63.24 1.1568.865 5.25111693 5.2 6 1
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 2423.60.76 0.89018.749 1.10000121 1.1 1 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 2418.91.90 1.2706.213 0.21110214 0.2 2 1
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 2825.25.71 1.42912.535 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

SD wins 3-2


Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros

OAK 30-32 (4.27 RPG / 4.81 RA)
2 - 3
HOU 28-36 (4.52 RPG / 5.12 RA)
WINNER: HOU wins 3-2 TARGET: OAK 1 - 3 HOU (HOU) Confidence: 55.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
OAK10000010025
HOU00001020x310

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.228
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-148.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.373
Avg Runs1.6
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-165.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record30-31
Win%0.492
Run Diff-32
RD/Game-0.525

HOU Season Quality

Record28-35
Win%0.444
Run Diff-35
RD/Game-0.556

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.102; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CortesRF 154513179 0.349 24750.431 44000 00 0.000 0.236 0.325 0.383 OK
Shea LangeliersC 234971296 0.305 621350.374 43000 12 0.000 0.262 0.321 0.549 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 254922263 0.285 411770.439 43000 12 0.000 0.294 0.436 0.544 OK
Brent RookerDH 165630127 0.202 371280.291 44100 01 0.250 0.211 0.284 0.390 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 228881193 0.219 281130.307 44211 00 0.500 0.279 0.360 0.524 OK
Henry BolteCF 5017955 0.307 0170.363 44100 01 0.250 0.281 0.333 0.364 OK
Zack Gelof3B 140520134 0.258 26720.311 44000 03 0.000 0.223 0.277 0.359 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 193677180 0.266 6580.334 33000 00 0.000 0.220 0.281 0.290 OK
Darell HernaizSS 11536398 0.270 4290.347 33111 02 0.333 0.186 0.269 0.241 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 22 211 0.156

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 93386101 0.262 10300.316 44210 01 0.500 0.308 0.345 0.470 OK
Yordan AlvarezLF 251930309 0.332 991890.447 43113 00 0.333 0.336 0.440 0.642 OK
Christian Walker1B 236899246 0.274 671860.348 44210 00 0.500 0.238 0.296 0.449 OK
Isaac ParedesDH 216807194 0.240 281070.336 44100 02 0.250 0.247 0.328 0.479 OK
Jose Altuve2B 186738188 0.255 21610.335 43100 10 0.333 0.242 0.314 0.435 OK
Cam SmithRF 219767168 0.219 20910.312 44000 00 0.000 0.224 0.303 0.354 OK
Jake MeyersCF 7126759 0.221 9250.291 44000 01 0.000 0.218 0.278 0.333 OK
Nick Allen3B 5315150 0.331 4190.396 44200 00 0.500 0.190 0.244 0.271 OK
Christian VázquezC 122404109 0.270 16670.328 33100 01 0.333 0.234 0.291 0.367 OK
TEAM TOTALS 353310 33 15 0.303

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack PerkinsStarter 1724.56.24 1.38812.133 4.16220577 4.1 5 2
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 3222.73.17 1.93813.133 1.11001024 1.1 0 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 2823.35.79 1.54510.427 0.23110017 0.2 0 1
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 2823.82.65 1.0928.723 1.20000021 1.2 0 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Peter LambertStarter 845.13.79 1.2208.643 6.231129101 6.2 9 1
Josh HaderMiddle Reliever 11.00.00 1.0009.01 0.10000017 0.1 0 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 2322.63.19 1.5498.020 1.0211015 1.0 1 1
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 2421.63.75 1.20410.425 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Nate PearsonMiddle Reliever 54.26.43 1.90510.75 0.00000018 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

HOU wins 3-2


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves

PIT 34-29 (5.16 RPG / 4.57 RA)
2 - 4
ATL 42-21 (5.22 RPG / 3.49 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 4-2 TARGET: PIT 2 - 3 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 55.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
PIT00000000226
ATL00400000x49

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.291
Avg Runs1.8
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-95.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.264
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-83.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record33-29
Win%0.532
Run Diff33
RD/Game0.532

ATL Season Quality

Record42-21
Win%0.667
Run Diff109
RD/Game1.730

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.3995; margin adjustment: 0.5878; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Gonzales3B 204820254 0.310 21010.362 44100 00 0.250 0.311 0.356 0.445 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 226897242 0.270 661820.361 44100 03 0.250 0.239 0.315 0.476 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 245892249 0.279 231560.405 44000 01 0.000 0.266 0.395 0.426 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 193776148 0.191 251020.280 44111 01 0.250 0.203 0.277 0.311 OK
Oneil CruzCF 2501060286 0.270 551780.338 44111 02 0.250 0.286 0.386 0.520 OK
Jhostynxon GarciaRF 248319 0.229 020.273 44100 01 0.250 0.213 0.248 0.275 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 195654189 0.289 221060.404 44100 00 0.250 0.261 0.376 0.426 OK
Jared TrioloSS 8028362 0.219 0110.275 32000 12 0.000 0.196 0.260 0.240 OK
Henry DavisC 12843663 0.144 16460.239 33000 00 0.000 0.145 0.216 0.280 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34336 22 110 0.182

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 196745176 0.236 19800.360 44212 00 0.500 0.266 0.388 0.547 OK
Michael Harris IICF 204798238 0.298 531370.323 44000 00 0.000 0.283 0.328 0.482 OK
Matt Olson1B 253989269 0.272 702020.355 44000 01 0.000 0.284 0.354 0.580 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 249976272 0.279 401350.337 44100 00 0.250 0.297 0.346 0.498 OK
Mauricio DubónSS 220843214 0.254 141240.309 43110 10 0.333 0.256 0.320 0.462 OK
Dominic SmithDH 122411138 0.336 16810.365 44100 01 0.250 0.272 0.305 0.392 OK
Austin Riley3B 240910198 0.218 311300.291 44100 01 0.250 0.185 0.246 0.298 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 158508113 0.222 9450.305 43211 10 0.667 0.238 0.318 0.351 OK
Sandy LeónC 23524 0.077 000.077 33111 01 0.333 0.159 0.169 0.220 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35339 44 24 0.273

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mitch KellerStarter 1267.44.41 1.1876.851 5.274422100 5.2 2 4
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2826.72.02 0.78711.534 1.20000016 1.2 0 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 2622.85.13 1.5797.920 0.22000216 0.2 2 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Martín PérezStarter 1250.52.85 1.0897.542 5.03001788 5.0 7 0
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1818.20.99 0.93410.922 1.11000220 1.1 2 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 2726.50.68 0.9068.525 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 2926.11.38 0.69012.135 1.02220019 1.0 0 2

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-2


Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers

SEA 33-30 (4.24 RPG / 3.76 RA)
4 - 2
DET 25-38 (3.94 RPG / 4.33 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 4-2 TARGET: SEA 4 - 2 DET (SEA) Confidence: 56.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SEA00100210047
DET00000101027

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.418
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-87.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.290
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-123.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record33-30
Win%0.524
Run Diff30
RD/Game0.476

DET Season Quality

Record25-38
Win%0.397
Run Diff-25
RD/Game-0.397

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0635; margin adjustment: -0.4467; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 210778179 0.230 36950.354 53200 21 0.667 0.259 0.369 0.438 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 2531035266 0.257 491330.315 54111 11 0.250 0.234 0.283 0.470 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 245907275 0.303 241100.388 54111 11 0.250 0.247 0.311 0.376 OK
Josh Naylor1B 234934248 0.266 231090.329 54000 11 0.000 0.243 0.301 0.355 OK
Rob RefsnyderDH 8721824 0.110 8220.205 54000 10 0.000 0.177 0.238 0.350 OK
Mitch GarverC 8625755 0.214 8240.361 43000 11 0.000 0.238 0.363 0.365 OK
Cole Young2B 230814199 0.244 141100.322 44111 00 0.250 0.275 0.337 0.403 OK
Victor RoblesRF 268424 0.286 040.286 44100 00 0.250 0.245 0.253 0.350 OK
Colt Emerson3B 3912536 0.288 6260.369 44111 02 0.250 0.271 0.334 0.582 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41347 44 77 0.206

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gleyber Torres2B 147542140 0.258 11520.393 44311 00 0.750 0.276 0.393 0.388 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 244936280 0.299 141070.399 44100 01 0.250 0.256 0.350 0.376 OK
Dillon DinglerC 210782192 0.246 521570.333 44211 00 0.500 0.249 0.310 0.559 OK
Kerry CarpenterRF 12038386 0.225 23670.302 44000 03 0.000 0.263 0.319 0.492 OK
Riley GreeneLF 240876272 0.311 191150.407 43000 11 0.000 0.288 0.377 0.472 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 221768161 0.210 32820.315 43000 10 0.000 0.226 0.308 0.387 OK
Colt KeithDH 167541152 0.281 0230.328 44000 01 0.000 0.199 0.251 0.271 OK
Zach McKinstryCF 12037957 0.150 5360.233 44000 02 0.000 0.145 0.259 0.202 OK
Zack ShortSS 327112 0.169 020.384 44100 01 0.250 0.136 0.329 0.186 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 22 29 0.206

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryan WooStarter 1270.23.46 0.9698.768 6.041106100 6.0 6 1
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 2421.55.02 1.34914.735 1.00002124 1.0 1 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 1713.60.66 0.8828.613 1.03110122 1.0 1 1
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 2924.41.84 1.3118.924 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Framber ValdezStarter 1266.54.47 1.3387.354 5.22114593 5.2 5 1
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2625.21.43 1.5485.716 1.01001020 1.0 0 0
Will VestMiddle Reliever 1916.18.39 1.67711.220 1.03221026 1.0 0 2
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 2623.05.09 1.6529.424 1.01111120 1.0 1 1
Drew AndersonMiddle Reliever 2135.54.31 1.35211.947 0.10000115 0.1 1 0
Brenan HanifeeMiddle Reliever 1110.71.68 1.3085.06 0.00000014 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 4-2


San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs

SF 26-38 (4.19 RPG / 4.94 RA)
3 - 4
CHC 33-31 (4.67 RPG / 4.62 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 4-3 TARGET: SF 2 - 3 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 52.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SF20000010037
CHC10300000x45

SF Recent Form

Win%0.190
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-161.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.113
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-164.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SF Season Quality

Record25-38
Win%0.397
Run Diff-63
RD/Game-1.000

CHC Season Quality

Record32-30
Win%0.516
Run Diff17
RD/Game0.274

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.4531; margin adjustment: 0.6103; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Casey SchmittLF 201798243 0.305 521360.347 55311 00 0.600 0.257 0.277 0.471 OK
Rafael Devers1B 235917231 0.252 291250.300 55111 01 0.200 0.227 0.282 0.383 OK
Luis Arraez2B 232943318 0.337 101010.379 43000 12 0.000 0.319 0.363 0.444 OK
Willy AdamesSS 238999254 0.254 32930.288 44100 01 0.250 0.265 0.308 0.493 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 200787235 0.299 12770.342 44100 00 0.250 0.375 0.401 0.498 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 5718541 0.222 590.306 43100 10 0.333 0.295 0.373 0.469 OK
Matt Chapman3B 234899203 0.226 6830.316 42011 21 0.000 0.223 0.300 0.362 OK
Daniel SusacC 5720169 0.343 0380.398 44000 02 0.000 0.224 0.283 0.335 OK
Drew GilbertCF 11739597 0.246 9340.297 44000 01 0.000 0.230 0.265 0.409 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 33 48 0.206

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 2601095282 0.258 211620.342 43110 10 0.333 0.260 0.336 0.354 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 239881216 0.245 291130.338 44000 01 0.000 0.294 0.352 0.515 OK
Alex Bregman3B 2601074280 0.261 18830.349 43111 10 0.333 0.246 0.323 0.368 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 187723185 0.256 33890.346 43110 10 0.333 0.246 0.312 0.412 OK
Ian HappLF 244956231 0.242 651540.361 43100 10 0.333 0.272 0.358 0.549 OK
Carson KellyDH 152559174 0.311 6630.389 44113 01 0.250 0.279 0.335 0.359 OK
Michael Busch1B 253933223 0.239 301580.382 44000 02 0.000 0.265 0.382 0.423 OK
Miguel AmayaC 9230166 0.219 12330.325 32000 11 0.000 0.186 0.283 0.289 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 219759152 0.200 331180.306 33000 00 0.000 0.187 0.303 0.314 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34295 44 55 0.172

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Robbie RayStarter 1260.84.59 1.4478.759 4.25444496 4.2 4 4
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 2623.74.18 1.39211.430 1.20001111 1.2 1 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 2625.72.45 0.9348.123 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 2015.14.77 1.72214.925 0.10000017 0.1 0 0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Edward CabreraStarter 1052.64.11 1.3888.047 5.04223488 5.0 4 2
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 1512.52.16 1.36010.114 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 2623.12.73 1.47212.532 1.01110118 1.0 1 1
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 1511.04.09 1.63612.315 1.01001120 1.0 1 0
Hoby MilnerMiddle Reliever 2822.32.83 1.1665.714 1.01000216 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 4-3


Tampa Bay Rays @ Miami Marlins

TB 36-23 (4.63 RPG / 4.54 RA)
4 - 2
MIA 29-34 (4.25 RPG / 4.54 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 4-2 TARGET: TB 4 - 2 MIA (TB) Confidence: 55.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
TB10030000049
MIA01000001027

TB Recent Form

Win%0.255
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-122.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.328
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-144.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TB Season Quality

Record36-23
Win%0.610
Run Diff5
RD/Game0.085

MIA Season Quality

Record29-34
Win%0.460
Run Diff-18
RD/Game-0.286

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5952; margin adjustment: -0.25; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 227941266 0.283 0440.318 55211 01 0.400 0.179 0.226 0.226 OK
Junior Caminero3B 238936251 0.268 581300.367 55311 00 0.600 0.286 0.399 0.493 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 233867249 0.287 441920.383 53111 20 0.333 0.255 0.371 0.443 OK
Yandy DíazDH 224877278 0.317 331570.397 55211 00 0.400 0.293 0.370 0.490 OK
Richie Palacios2B 120373102 0.273 4580.383 53000 20 0.000 0.187 0.305 0.272 OK
Ryan ViladeRF 8124181 0.336 8600.398 55000 01 0.000 0.246 0.320 0.444 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 187694131 0.189 14740.265 44000 01 0.000 0.185 0.279 0.316 OK
Nick FortesC 138453113 0.249 4380.291 43000 12 0.000 0.220 0.244 0.306 OK
Taylor WallsSS 14749199 0.202 0540.304 43100 10 0.333 0.197 0.287 0.276 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42369 44 65 0.250

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Liam HicksDH 209746209 0.280 481990.358 55000 01 0.000 0.268 0.362 0.449 OK
Otto LopezSS 238959332 0.346 201080.377 55100 02 0.200 0.320 0.347 0.476 OK
Kyle Stowers1B 145549115 0.209 13450.300 44200 02 0.500 0.217 0.285 0.384 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 244927297 0.320 26850.406 44200 01 0.500 0.295 0.391 0.434 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 124428121 0.283 4790.322 42000 20 0.000 0.235 0.277 0.349 OK
Owen CaissieRF 154482112 0.232 12970.289 42011 11 0.000 0.235 0.315 0.379 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 243896174 0.194 13640.327 43100 11 0.333 0.201 0.315 0.298 OK
Joe MackC 6621647 0.218 1290.265 44111 00 0.250 0.233 0.278 0.340 OK
Esteury RuizLF 4512725 0.197 9180.226 44000 01 0.000 0.126 0.180 0.350 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38337 22 49 0.212

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Drew RasmussenStarter 1158.33.40 1.0298.555 5.24112697 5.2 6 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 2724.42.21 1.06610.729 1.01001220 1.0 2 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 2526.84.37 1.38111.133 1.12111127 1.1 1 1
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 2622.83.16 0.9657.519 1.00000014 1.0 0 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan GustoStarter 23.09.00 1.66712.04 3.08444278 3.0 2 4
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 1815.47.01 1.36413.423 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 2519.94.07 1.10611.826 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 2220.33.99 1.28111.125 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 2520.54.83 1.95111.927 1.00000120 1.0 1 0
John KingMiddle Reliever 2821.32.96 0.8458.520 2.00002031 2.0 0 0

Game Summary

TB wins 4-2


Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks

WAS 31-32 (5.25 RPG / 5.41 RA)
7 - 5
ARI 33-29 (4.45 RPG / 4.39 RA)
WINNER: WAS wins 7-5 TARGET: WAS 6 - 4 ARI (WAS) Confidence: 53.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
12345678910RH
WAS1000200004711
ARI020010000258

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.262
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-157.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.339
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-83.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

WAS Season Quality

Record31-32
Win%0.492
Run Diff-10
RD/Game-0.159

ARI Season Quality

Record32-29
Win%0.525
Run Diff3
RD/Game0.049

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2567; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 2721048301 0.287 761940.429 65110 10 0.200 0.248 0.373 0.495 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 179665185 0.278 211230.300 66213 01 0.333 0.207 0.243 0.403 OK
Daylen LileLF 2521037263 0.254 321250.311 66412 01 0.667 0.223 0.277 0.343 OK
CJ AbramsSS 244927276 0.298 482060.388 66211 01 0.333 0.281 0.345 0.471 OK
Jorbit Vivas3B 12336693 0.254 4210.341 65110 10 0.200 0.222 0.298 0.326 OK
Dylan CrewsCF 3514534 0.234 470.265 55111 01 0.200 0.216 0.237 0.315 OK
Drew MillasC 10133761 0.181 5290.262 54010 12 0.000 0.197 0.257 0.300 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 194663128 0.193 0630.295 54000 13 0.000 0.201 0.281 0.251 OK
TEAM TOTALS 454111 77 49 0.268

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 229971267 0.275 421510.321 54213 01 0.500 0.237 0.292 0.455 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtLF 7426071 0.273 0280.339 55111 01 0.200 0.207 0.276 0.317 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 229850254 0.299 341300.397 55210 02 0.400 0.287 0.362 0.576 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 200694191 0.275 301180.358 55000 00 0.000 0.248 0.321 0.439 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 224788178 0.226 10810.341 44110 00 0.250 0.248 0.339 0.354 OK
Tommy TroyDH 206322 0.349 110.431 43000 10 0.000 0.277 0.358 0.485 OK
Aramis GarciaC 000 0.000 000.000 44000 00 0.000 0.242 0.307 0.394
Jorge BarrosaCF 9129056 0.193 2240.271 44211 00 0.500 0.186 0.266 0.337 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 204823252 0.306 321550.332 43000 11 0.000 0.241 0.271 0.367 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40378 55 25 0.216

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Foster GriffinStarter 1266.33.80 1.1618.865 5.26332397 5.2 3 3
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 1615.63.46 1.47410.418 2.0000007 2.0 0 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1835.32.80 1.1338.433 1.1000014 1.1 1 0
Orlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever 1615.41.75 1.0397.613 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 1915.43.51 2.1439.917 0.01000017 0.0 0 0
Cole HenryReliever 89.35.81 1.72011.612 0.01220024 0.0 0 2

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Merrill KellyStarter 952.45.15 1.4895.733 5.05222495 5.0 4 2
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.11000220 1.1 2 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 1.01110021 1.0 0 1
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.24441131 1.2 1 4

Game Summary

WAS wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10)