| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ TOR | 1 - 2 | 0 - 2 | TOR | TOR | TOR wins 2-0 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| BOS @ NYY | 1 - 2 | 0 - 2 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 2-0 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CHW @ PHI | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 | PHI | PHI | PHI wins 5-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CIN @ STL | 3 - 5 | 1 - 7 | STL | STL | STL wins 7-1 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CLE @ TEX | 3 - 1 | 4 - 1 | CLE | CLE | CLE wins 4-1 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| KC @ MIN | 3 - 2 | 5 - 2 | KC | KC | KC wins 5-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| LAA @ LAD | 4 - 5 | 2 - 5 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 5-2 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| MIL @ COL | 5 - 4 | 4 - 7 | MIL | COL | COL wins 7-4 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| NYM @ SD | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 | SD | SD | SD wins 3-2 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| OAK @ HOU | 1 - 3 | 2 - 3 | HOU | HOU | HOU wins 3-2 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| PIT @ ATL | 2 - 3 | 2 - 4 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 4-2 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| SEA @ DET | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 | SEA | SEA | SEA wins 4-2 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| SF @ CHC | 2 - 3 | 3 - 4 | CHC | CHC | CHC wins 4-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| TB @ MIA | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 | TB | TB | TB wins 4-2 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| WAS @ ARI | 6 - 4 | 7 - 5 | WAS | WAS | WAS wins 7-5 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 2 | 5 |
Quality edge: 0.4762; margin adjustment: 0.2; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Taylor Ward | LF | 257 | 943 | 249 | 0.264 | 9 | 74 | 0.409 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.411 | 0.368 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 259 | 1107 | 233 | 0.210 | 54 | 137 | 0.266 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.212 | 0.263 | 0.383 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 165 | 644 | 171 | 0.266 | 31 | 114 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.327 | 0.424 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 249 | 955 | 233 | 0.244 | 42 | 152 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.348 | 0.455 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | DH | 167 | 608 | 165 | 0.271 | 32 | 90 | 0.332 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.358 | 0.484 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 155 | 514 | 110 | 0.214 | 22 | 75 | 0.289 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.289 | 0.413 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | RF | 117 | 329 | 68 | 0.207 | 9 | 43 | 0.297 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.240 | 0.338 | 0.392 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | CF | 165 | 559 | 154 | 0.275 | 9 | 91 | 0.365 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.287 | 0.320 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 31 | 99 | 22 | 0.222 | 5 | 19 | 0.303 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.223 | 0.321 | 0.353 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| George Springer | DH | 166 | 678 | 144 | 0.212 | 23 | 65 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.272 | 0.345 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 75 | 257 | 85 | 0.331 | 1 | 36 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.323 | 0.354 | 0.455 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 231 | 850 | 251 | 0.295 | 12 | 99 | 0.393 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.293 | 0.374 | 0.393 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 217 | 819 | 222 | 0.271 | 24 | 75 | 0.348 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.312 | 0.396 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 227 | 910 | 278 | 0.305 | 22 | 90 | 0.327 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.321 | 0.339 | 0.455 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | LF | 179 | 602 | 166 | 0.276 | 25 | 105 | 0.318 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.207 | 0.235 | 0.351 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 229 | 856 | 190 | 0.222 | 50 | 134 | 0.312 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.241 | 0.325 | 0.441 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 200 | 716 | 162 | 0.226 | 25 | 111 | 0.261 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.224 | 0.312 | OK |
| Brandon Valenzuela | C | 110 | 344 | 91 | 0.265 | 18 | 45 | 0.363 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.324 | 0.386 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 29 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brandon Young | Starter | 8 | 40.9 | 3.52 | 1.443 | 7.3 | 33 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 86 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 28 | 24.0 | 0.75 | 0.667 | 11.2 | 30 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 15 | 10.8 | 8.33 | 1.852 | 11.7 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trey Yesavage | Starter | 7 | 36.3 | 2.23 | 1.185 | 9.7 | 39 | 5.1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 88 | 5.1 | 6 | 0 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 29 | 29.3 | 0.31 | 1.092 | 13.2 | 43 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 29 | 25.1 | 2.51 | 1.195 | 5.7 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Braydon Fisher | Middle Reliever | 32 | 29.2 | 3.08 | 1.096 | 10.8 | 35 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
TOR wins 2-0
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | x | 2 | 7 |
Quality edge: 1.8542; margin adjustment: 0.7788; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jarren Duran | LF | 226 | 943 | 203 | 0.215 | 38 | 136 | 0.286 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.208 | 0.267 | 0.401 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 204 | 777 | 221 | 0.284 | 18 | 90 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.305 | 0.399 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 236 | 930 | 262 | 0.282 | 27 | 104 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.331 | 0.420 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 225 | 830 | 236 | 0.284 | 50 | 159 | 0.380 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.285 | 0.369 | 0.493 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 174 | 600 | 115 | 0.192 | 5 | 75 | 0.267 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.231 | 0.274 | 0.365 | OK |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | SS | 74 | 222 | 71 | 0.320 | 4 | 36 | 0.403 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.252 | 0.333 | 0.321 | OK |
| Andruw Monasterio | 2B | 97 | 343 | 89 | 0.259 | 6 | 44 | 0.310 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.162 | 0.212 | 0.298 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | DH | 51 | 182 | 62 | 0.341 | 0 | 12 | 0.386 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.267 | 0.317 | 0.367 | OK |
| Connor Wong | C | 70 | 215 | 52 | 0.242 | 0 | 32 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.173 | 0.254 | 0.292 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trent Grisham | CF | 215 | 788 | 167 | 0.212 | 32 | 133 | 0.328 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.359 | 0.401 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 218 | 828 | 248 | 0.300 | 70 | 172 | 0.401 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.297 | 0.399 | 0.583 | OK |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 114 | 428 | 122 | 0.285 | 25 | 70 | 0.366 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.297 | 0.362 | 0.540 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 240 | 878 | 240 | 0.273 | 36 | 163 | 0.378 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.271 | 0.378 | 0.435 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 221 | 835 | 207 | 0.248 | 28 | 94 | 0.328 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.311 | 0.408 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | RF | 24 | 63 | 12 | 0.190 | 0 | 8 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.219 | 0.305 | 0.277 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | SS | 46 | 155 | 46 | 0.297 | 6 | 36 | 0.435 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.377 | 0.414 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 157 | 524 | 105 | 0.200 | 18 | 67 | 0.261 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.275 | 0.389 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 156 | 509 | 97 | 0.191 | 17 | 32 | 0.308 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.177 | 0.293 | 0.260 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sonny Gray | Starter | 10 | 49.3 | 3.10 | 1.217 | 7.5 | 41 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 106 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 19 | 18.2 | 0.49 | 0.879 | 12.4 | 25 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 40 | 2.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 11 | 8.6 | 4.19 | 1.512 | 14.7 | 14 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ryan Weathers | Starter | 11 | 61.9 | 3.63 | 1.179 | 10.9 | 75 | 6.1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 100 | 6.1 | 8 | 0 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 25 | 23.6 | 4.58 | 1.610 | 11.1 | 29 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 30 | 20.0 | 2.70 | 1.600 | 14.8 | 33 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 28 | 19.1 | 4.24 | 1.466 | 6.1 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Headrick | Middle Reliever | 30 | 23.6 | 2.29 | 1.653 | 13.0 | 34 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
NYY wins 2-0
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: -0.5323; margin adjustment: -0.2235; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 234 | 904 | 239 | 0.264 | 24 | 88 | 0.338 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.339 | 0.390 | OK |
| Randal Grichuk | DH | 42 | 110 | 36 | 0.327 | 8 | 41 | 0.362 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.235 | 0.251 | 0.427 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 1B | 244 | 904 | 210 | 0.232 | 58 | 151 | 0.364 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.249 | 0.363 | 0.507 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | 3B | 235 | 886 | 208 | 0.235 | 59 | 154 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.287 | 0.483 | OK |
| Edgar Quero | C | 130 | 439 | 85 | 0.194 | 6 | 62 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.285 | 0.315 | OK |
| Derek Hill | RF | 71 | 178 | 36 | 0.202 | 6 | 15 | 0.253 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.129 | 0.183 | 0.206 | OK |
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 154 | 546 | 144 | 0.264 | 5 | 60 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.320 | 0.384 | OK |
| Luisangel Acuña | SS | 112 | 347 | 60 | 0.173 | 0 | 22 | 0.238 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.245 | 0.219 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 153 | 466 | 136 | 0.292 | 8 | 50 | 0.354 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.321 | 0.398 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0.133 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 245 | 953 | 234 | 0.246 | 99 | 186 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.343 | 0.520 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 246 | 1058 | 246 | 0.233 | 34 | 90 | 0.279 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.241 | 0.277 | 0.359 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 236 | 856 | 235 | 0.275 | 58 | 150 | 0.383 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.378 | 0.474 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 215 | 809 | 175 | 0.216 | 18 | 101 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.276 | 0.343 | OK |
| Edmundo Sosa | 2B | 92 | 294 | 56 | 0.190 | 6 | 43 | 0.227 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.137 | 0.158 | 0.254 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 135 | 472 | 117 | 0.248 | 10 | 42 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.266 | 0.349 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 198 | 738 | 251 | 0.340 | 23 | 112 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.329 | 0.363 | 0.469 | OK |
| Adolis García | RF | 219 | 780 | 154 | 0.197 | 13 | 70 | 0.284 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.185 | 0.247 | 0.321 | OK |
| Steward Berroa | CF | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0.250 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.202 | 0.216 | 0.290 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Anthony Kay | Starter | 12 | 55.0 | 3.93 | 1.455 | 6.9 | 42 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 108 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.9 | 1.72 | 1.483 | 9.9 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jesús Luzardo | Starter | 12 | 64.9 | 4.44 | 1.356 | 10.8 | 78 | 5.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 100 | 5.1 | 5 | 3 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.2 | 1.41 | 0.885 | 14.5 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 27 | 25.5 | 3.88 | 1.294 | 10.2 | 29 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 26 | 21.0 | 2.57 | 1.333 | 10.7 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
PHI wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| STL | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | x | 7 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.5098; margin adjustment: 0.2141; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Blake Dunn | CF | 58 | 250 | 77 | 0.308 | 6 | 17 | 0.371 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.260 | 0.313 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 118 | 452 | 126 | 0.279 | 34 | 104 | 0.371 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.265 | 0.350 | 0.562 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | 2B | 213 | 785 | 210 | 0.268 | 32 | 89 | 0.342 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.289 | 0.366 | 0.522 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 244 | 912 | 226 | 0.248 | 49 | 160 | 0.357 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.229 | 0.333 | 0.382 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | DH | 134 | 449 | 128 | 0.285 | 36 | 93 | 0.377 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.178 | 0.278 | 0.390 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | 3B | 124 | 454 | 105 | 0.231 | 11 | 53 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.199 | 0.286 | 0.332 | OK |
| Noelvi Marte | RF | 31 | 95 | 14 | 0.147 | 0 | 0 | 0.214 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.171 | 0.229 | 0.215 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 163 | 537 | 103 | 0.192 | 17 | 74 | 0.300 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.289 | 0.299 | OK |
| Edwin Arroyo | SS | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0.125 | 0 | 0 | 0.125 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.234 | 0.319 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.326 | 0.407 | |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 249 | 947 | 245 | 0.259 | 28 | 116 | 0.385 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.243 | 0.330 | 0.358 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 234 | 945 | 265 | 0.280 | 31 | 163 | 0.345 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.287 | 0.342 | 0.432 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 230 | 899 | 286 | 0.318 | 69 | 200 | 0.384 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.285 | 0.338 | 0.478 | OK |
| Bryan Torres | 2B | 24 | 90 | 23 | 0.256 | 0 | 4 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.241 | 0.315 | 0.382 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 205 | 791 | 182 | 0.230 | 6 | 91 | 0.297 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.230 | 0.290 | 0.345 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 204 | 742 | 169 | 0.228 | 25 | 110 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.191 | 0.266 | 0.330 | OK |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0.333 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.268 | 0.437 | OK |
| Victor Scott II | CF | 161 | 479 | 82 | 0.171 | 9 | 27 | 0.245 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.175 | 0.248 | 0.250 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brady Singer | Starter | 11 | 49.6 | 6.35 | 1.734 | 6.5 | 36 | 4.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 92 | 4.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 25 | 21.6 | 5.42 | 1.574 | 9.2 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 30 | 23.2 | 4.27 | 1.681 | 10.9 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Moll | Middle Reliever | 28 | 21.2 | 2.97 | 1.274 | 11.9 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever | 11 | 9.4 | 4.79 | 1.277 | 9.6 | 10 | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Leahy | Starter | 11 | 54.3 | 4.31 | 1.584 | 7.6 | 46 | 5.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 97 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 27 | 25.7 | 4.20 | 1.167 | 10.2 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 28 | 22.4 | 4.42 | 1.562 | 11.2 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 26 | 21.4 | 3.36 | 1.262 | 9.3 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever | 27 | 19.9 | 6.33 | 2.060 | 14.0 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Gordon Graceffo | Middle Reliever | 26 | 25.3 | 2.13 | 1.067 | 5.3 | 15 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
STL wins 7-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Quality edge: -0.0665; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 118 | 431 | 126 | 0.292 | 12 | 52 | 0.401 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.326 | 0.392 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 256 | 951 | 227 | 0.239 | 37 | 129 | 0.353 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.273 | 0.368 | 0.479 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 220 | 852 | 218 | 0.256 | 32 | 148 | 0.332 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.238 | 0.309 | 0.368 | OK |
| Kyle Manzardo | DH | 173 | 616 | 134 | 0.218 | 18 | 61 | 0.299 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.315 | 0.454 | OK |
| Rhys Hoskins | 1B | 155 | 483 | 99 | 0.205 | 23 | 85 | 0.347 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.365 | 0.461 | OK |
| Daniel Schneemann | CF | 163 | 563 | 136 | 0.242 | 17 | 77 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.317 | 0.350 | OK |
| Steven Kwan | LF | 234 | 884 | 186 | 0.210 | 4 | 56 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.212 | 0.310 | 0.265 | OK |
| Austin Hedges | C | 85 | 267 | 67 | 0.251 | 5 | 19 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.226 | 0.304 | 0.333 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 209 | 700 | 208 | 0.297 | 14 | 105 | 0.375 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.308 | 0.355 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 84 | 352 | 86 | 0.244 | 3 | 17 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.285 | 0.363 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 182 | 680 | 124 | 0.182 | 32 | 89 | 0.294 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.164 | 0.258 | 0.315 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 213 | 827 | 252 | 0.305 | 27 | 98 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.298 | 0.349 | 0.488 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 241 | 956 | 250 | 0.262 | 29 | 93 | 0.343 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.278 | 0.348 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | 2B | 170 | 595 | 180 | 0.303 | 14 | 110 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.230 | 0.295 | 0.385 | OK |
| Justin Foscue | DH | 58 | 184 | 47 | 0.255 | 7 | 27 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.161 | 0.212 | 0.307 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 221 | 853 | 201 | 0.236 | 38 | 148 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.291 | 0.368 | OK |
| Kyle Higashioka | C | 95 | 323 | 64 | 0.198 | 11 | 34 | 0.287 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.182 | 0.278 | 0.280 | OK |
| Michael Helman | CF | 15 | 40 | 7 | 0.175 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.197 | 0.249 | 0.319 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Parker Messick | Starter | 12 | 67.0 | 2.28 | 1.104 | 9.9 | 74 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 94 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 28 | 28.2 | 2.87 | 1.099 | 13.7 | 43 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.0 | 3.86 | 1.429 | 9.0 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shawn Armstrong | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.2 | 2.05 | 1.364 | 13.6 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kumar Rocker | Starter | 11 | 54.6 | 3.63 | 1.355 | 7.3 | 44 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 21 | 25.6 | 1.05 | 0.469 | 9.1 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 23 | 25.5 | 1.76 | 0.824 | 6.0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever | 27 | 21.8 | 3.72 | 1.651 | 8.7 | 21 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Beeks | Middle Reliever | 27 | 20.1 | 4.48 | 1.642 | 9.0 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
CLE wins 4-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
Quality edge: 0.4401; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | DH | 192 | 662 | 152 | 0.230 | 24 | 103 | 0.316 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.196 | 0.271 | 0.326 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 250 | 1003 | 288 | 0.287 | 40 | 112 | 0.356 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.252 | 0.338 | 0.411 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 234 | 882 | 173 | 0.196 | 24 | 110 | 0.294 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.298 | 0.331 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | C | 228 | 880 | 195 | 0.222 | 42 | 112 | 0.274 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.203 | 0.244 | 0.318 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 186 | 650 | 145 | 0.223 | 19 | 43 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.197 | 0.279 | 0.336 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 184 | 606 | 135 | 0.223 | 11 | 71 | 0.350 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.329 | 0.306 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 120 | 381 | 93 | 0.244 | 13 | 53 | 0.261 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.256 | 0.442 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | 3B | 76 | 226 | 48 | 0.212 | 1 | 50 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.210 | 0.301 | 0.346 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 158 | 515 | 135 | 0.262 | 11 | 42 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.262 | 0.326 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Byron Buxton | CF | 224 | 958 | 257 | 0.268 | 84 | 136 | 0.329 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.322 | 0.511 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 214 | 813 | 202 | 0.248 | 26 | 125 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.282 | 0.427 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 1B | 173 | 631 | 145 | 0.230 | 24 | 72 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.259 | 0.426 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 223 | 842 | 188 | 0.223 | 21 | 128 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.273 | 0.327 | 0.392 | OK |
| Orlando Arcia | SS | 24 | 81 | 30 | 0.370 | 0 | 4 | 0.400 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.180 | 0.225 | 0.261 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | 2B | 216 | 802 | 195 | 0.243 | 5 | 84 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.327 | 0.334 | OK |
| Austin Martin | RF | 180 | 658 | 188 | 0.286 | 10 | 75 | 0.384 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.298 | 0.297 | OK |
| Ryan Kreidler | LF | 52 | 170 | 44 | 0.259 | 9 | 28 | 0.330 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.268 | 0.380 | OK |
| Alex Jackson | C | 12 | 41 | 9 | 0.220 | 0 | 1 | 0.220 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.245 | 0.356 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0.133 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Wacha | Starter | 12 | 75.1 | 3.24 | 1.119 | 7.8 | 65 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 92 | 6.1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 23 | 21.4 | 5.47 | 1.822 | 8.4 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Strahm | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.4 | 4.14 | 1.264 | 8.8 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 25 | 22.3 | 2.02 | 1.121 | 11.7 | 29 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zebby Matthews | Starter | 4 | 23.1 | 4.68 | 1.039 | 9.4 | 24 | 5.2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 99 | 5.2 | 4 | 5 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Middle Reliever | 15 | 11.0 | 0.82 | 1.000 | 14.7 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Taylor Rogers | Middle Reliever | 26 | 18.2 | 4.45 | 1.868 | 8.4 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Orze | Middle Reliever | 25 | 25.0 | 4.32 | 1.680 | 9.7 | 27 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
KC wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 10 |
Quality edge: 3.3671; margin adjustment: 1.4; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 260 | 1026 | 246 | 0.240 | 45 | 126 | 0.350 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.335 | 0.412 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 256 | 904 | 227 | 0.251 | 63 | 148 | 0.422 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.416 | 0.474 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | LF | 24 | 81 | 28 | 0.346 | 5 | 19 | 0.384 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.285 | 0.326 | 0.467 | OK |
| Jorge Soler | DH | 225 | 849 | 187 | 0.220 | 36 | 137 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.292 | 0.368 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 1B | 128 | 478 | 119 | 0.249 | 14 | 101 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.308 | 0.411 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 240 | 944 | 229 | 0.243 | 33 | 134 | 0.289 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.235 | 0.349 | OK |
| Donovan Walton | 3B | 25 | 97 | 26 | 0.268 | 0 | 1 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.284 | 0.354 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | 2B | 163 | 566 | 161 | 0.284 | 27 | 65 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.284 | 0.416 | OK |
| Logan O'Hoppe | C | 126 | 429 | 96 | 0.224 | 5 | 48 | 0.317 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.267 | 0.304 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 243 | 939 | 266 | 0.283 | 41 | 154 | 0.410 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.344 | 0.445 | 0.565 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 233 | 891 | 277 | 0.311 | 58 | 222 | 0.360 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.283 | 0.333 | 0.517 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 234 | 885 | 239 | 0.270 | 32 | 127 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.284 | 0.358 | 0.489 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 98 | 419 | 75 | 0.179 | 29 | 73 | 0.225 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.188 | 0.240 | 0.335 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 234 | 902 | 229 | 0.254 | 22 | 122 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.271 | 0.355 | 0.445 | OK |
| Will Smith | C | 178 | 666 | 171 | 0.257 | 22 | 99 | 0.334 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.268 | 0.355 | 0.444 | OK |
| Alex Call | LF | 66 | 205 | 56 | 0.273 | 0 | 38 | 0.393 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.200 | 0.320 | 0.281 | OK |
| Miguel Rojas | 2B | 95 | 295 | 79 | 0.268 | 4 | 35 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.255 | 0.290 | 0.357 | OK |
| Santiago Espinal | 3B | 45 | 129 | 31 | 0.240 | 3 | 17 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.268 | 0.377 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Reid Detmers | Starter | 12 | 65.2 | 4.83 | 1.227 | 11.3 | 82 | 5.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 95 | 5.1 | 6 | 5 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 10 | 8.4 | 4.29 | 1.310 | 12.9 | 12 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 21 | 24.6 | 2.56 | 1.260 | 10.6 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever | 26 | 16.0 | 2.25 | 1.812 | 11.2 | 20 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.8 | 6.43 | 1.905 | 8.0 | 15 | 0.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Roki Sasaki | Starter | 10 | 50.3 | 4.65 | 1.372 | 8.9 | 50 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 102 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 28 | 24.6 | 2.56 | 0.772 | 11.0 | 30 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kyle Hurt | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.2 | 2.34 | 0.990 | 11.2 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 27 | 16.8 | 2.68 | 1.190 | 15.0 | 28 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Blake Treinen | Middle Reliever | 22 | 15.2 | 1.78 | 1.250 | 10.7 | 18 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
LAD wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| COL | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 7 | 9 |
Quality edge: -3.1544; margin adjustment: -1.3248; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Christian Yelich | DH | 104 | 404 | 119 | 0.295 | 15 | 63 | 0.358 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.307 | 0.373 | 0.475 | OK |
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 95 | 408 | 118 | 0.289 | 7 | 34 | 0.338 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.331 | 0.392 | 0.566 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 233 | 869 | 251 | 0.289 | 34 | 154 | 0.409 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.306 | 0.421 | 0.495 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 223 | 900 | 267 | 0.297 | 17 | 157 | 0.367 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.258 | 0.323 | 0.357 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 186 | 698 | 198 | 0.284 | 36 | 133 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.351 | 0.497 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 171 | 590 | 143 | 0.242 | 7 | 106 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.351 | 0.376 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 191 | 693 | 155 | 0.224 | 14 | 68 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.305 | 0.344 | OK |
| Luis Rengifo | 3B | 171 | 619 | 134 | 0.216 | 0 | 63 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.174 | 0.255 | 0.232 | OK |
| David Hamilton | SS | 148 | 474 | 112 | 0.236 | 2 | 33 | 0.328 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.246 | 0.336 | 0.365 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | CF | 143 | 481 | 124 | 0.258 | 10 | 69 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.307 | 0.459 | OK |
| Tyler Freeman | RF | 140 | 516 | 129 | 0.250 | 11 | 59 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.232 | 0.279 | 0.349 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 218 | 821 | 231 | 0.281 | 31 | 118 | 0.359 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.337 | 0.431 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 216 | 857 | 211 | 0.246 | 57 | 94 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.228 | 0.297 | 0.482 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | LF | 188 | 682 | 225 | 0.330 | 10 | 96 | 0.391 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.297 | 0.350 | 0.423 | OK |
| Willi Castro | 3B | 176 | 644 | 166 | 0.258 | 9 | 75 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.224 | 0.296 | 0.337 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 207 | 784 | 172 | 0.219 | 10 | 82 | 0.266 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.245 | 0.351 | OK |
| Sterlin Thompson | DH | 32 | 92 | 16 | 0.174 | 0 | 8 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.135 | 0.226 | 0.215 | OK |
| Edouard Julien | 2B | 154 | 533 | 120 | 0.225 | 10 | 60 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.354 | 0.312 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brandon Sproat | Starter | 11 | 46.2 | 6.62 | 1.623 | 10.1 | 52 | 4.1 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 87 | 4.1 | 6 | 7 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 22 | 22.0 | 2.45 | 0.909 | 11.5 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.7 | 4.35 | 1.353 | 10.0 | 23 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 27 | 33.6 | 2.41 | 1.458 | 13.9 | 52 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| DL Hall | Middle Reliever | 24 | 27.5 | 2.29 | 1.382 | 10.5 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Grant Anderson | Middle Reliever | 25 | 21.0 | 3.86 | 1.286 | 8.1 | 19 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ryan Feltner | Starter | 6 | 25.3 | 4.98 | 1.344 | 6.8 | 19 | 4.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 93 | 4.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 17 | 30.7 | 1.47 | 1.010 | 7.6 | 26 | 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 25 | 23.8 | 6.81 | 1.975 | 11.7 | 31 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever | 24 | 15.4 | 4.68 | 1.948 | 13.4 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
COL wins 7-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Quality edge: 0.1794; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 206 | 788 | 208 | 0.264 | 14 | 100 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.276 | 0.331 | 0.475 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 248 | 1025 | 234 | 0.228 | 24 | 135 | 0.276 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.286 | 0.302 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 170 | 644 | 194 | 0.301 | 46 | 108 | 0.397 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.282 | 0.367 | 0.511 | OK |
| Jared Young | 1B | 31 | 92 | 30 | 0.326 | 2 | 7 | 0.374 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.190 | 0.253 | 0.362 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 66 | 228 | 60 | 0.263 | 4 | 22 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.335 | 0.337 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 226 | 832 | 194 | 0.233 | 21 | 94 | 0.282 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.300 | 0.422 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 186 | 668 | 165 | 0.247 | 14 | 90 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.271 | 0.318 | OK |
| MJ Melendez | DH | 91 | 236 | 56 | 0.237 | 8 | 24 | 0.356 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.219 | 0.300 | 0.444 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 99 | 298 | 59 | 0.198 | 0 | 33 | 0.258 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.177 | 0.213 | 0.263 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | 233 | 898 | 237 | 0.264 | 1 | 70 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.322 | 0.357 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | DH | 175 | 593 | 147 | 0.248 | 33 | 87 | 0.332 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.199 | 0.302 | 0.401 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 223 | 807 | 141 | 0.175 | 41 | 124 | 0.267 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.184 | 0.260 | 0.381 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 105 | 358 | 105 | 0.293 | 20 | 61 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.301 | 0.448 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 222 | 866 | 178 | 0.206 | 19 | 92 | 0.280 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.227 | 0.296 | 0.375 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 215 | 796 | 198 | 0.249 | 30 | 105 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.292 | 0.341 | OK |
| Bryce Johnson | LF | 37 | 102 | 18 | 0.176 | 0 | 6 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.129 | 0.213 | 0.210 | OK |
| Sung-Mun Song | 2B | 27 | 68 | 13 | 0.191 | 0 | 14 | 0.304 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.123 | 0.244 | 0.201 | OK |
| Rodolfo Durán | C | 26 | 66 | 7 | 0.106 | 4 | 8 | 0.262 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.145 | 0.262 | 0.258 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 0.138 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Christian Scott | Starter | 7 | 28.7 | 3.14 | 1.463 | 11.9 | 38 | 5.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 82 | 5.0 | 8 | 1 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 22 | 18.6 | 4.84 | 1.452 | 15.0 | 31 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 25 | 24.9 | 2.89 | 1.084 | 9.8 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 26 | 18.9 | 1.90 | 1.534 | 12.9 | 27 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Huascar Brazobán | Middle Reliever | 26 | 25.3 | 2.85 | 1.265 | 8.5 | 24 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael King | Starter | 12 | 66.6 | 3.24 | 1.156 | 8.8 | 65 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 93 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 24 | 23.6 | 0.76 | 0.890 | 18.7 | 49 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 24 | 18.9 | 1.90 | 1.270 | 6.2 | 13 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 28 | 25.2 | 5.71 | 1.429 | 12.5 | 35 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
SD wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | x | 3 | 10 |
Quality edge: -0.102; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carlos Cortes | RF | 154 | 513 | 179 | 0.349 | 24 | 75 | 0.431 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.325 | 0.383 | OK |
| Shea Langeliers | C | 234 | 971 | 296 | 0.305 | 62 | 135 | 0.374 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.321 | 0.549 | OK |
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 254 | 922 | 263 | 0.285 | 41 | 177 | 0.439 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 0.436 | 0.544 | OK |
| Brent Rooker | DH | 165 | 630 | 127 | 0.202 | 37 | 128 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.211 | 0.284 | 0.390 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 228 | 881 | 193 | 0.219 | 28 | 113 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.279 | 0.360 | 0.524 | OK |
| Henry Bolte | CF | 50 | 179 | 55 | 0.307 | 0 | 17 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.281 | 0.333 | 0.364 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 140 | 520 | 134 | 0.258 | 26 | 72 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.277 | 0.359 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 193 | 677 | 180 | 0.266 | 6 | 58 | 0.334 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.281 | 0.290 | OK |
| Darell Hernaiz | SS | 115 | 363 | 98 | 0.270 | 4 | 29 | 0.347 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.186 | 0.269 | 0.241 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 93 | 386 | 101 | 0.262 | 10 | 30 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.308 | 0.345 | 0.470 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | LF | 251 | 930 | 309 | 0.332 | 99 | 189 | 0.447 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.336 | 0.440 | 0.642 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 236 | 899 | 246 | 0.274 | 67 | 186 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.238 | 0.296 | 0.449 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | DH | 216 | 807 | 194 | 0.240 | 28 | 107 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.328 | 0.479 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 186 | 738 | 188 | 0.255 | 21 | 61 | 0.335 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.242 | 0.314 | 0.435 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 219 | 767 | 168 | 0.219 | 20 | 91 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.303 | 0.354 | OK |
| Jake Meyers | CF | 71 | 267 | 59 | 0.221 | 9 | 25 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.278 | 0.333 | OK |
| Nick Allen | 3B | 53 | 151 | 50 | 0.331 | 4 | 19 | 0.396 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.190 | 0.244 | 0.271 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 122 | 404 | 109 | 0.270 | 16 | 67 | 0.328 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.234 | 0.291 | 0.367 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0.303 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Perkins | Starter | 17 | 24.5 | 6.24 | 1.388 | 12.1 | 33 | 4.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 77 | 4.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 32 | 22.7 | 3.17 | 1.938 | 13.1 | 33 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | Middle Reliever | 28 | 23.3 | 5.79 | 1.545 | 10.4 | 27 | 0.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 28 | 23.8 | 2.65 | 1.092 | 8.7 | 23 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Peter Lambert | Starter | 8 | 45.1 | 3.79 | 1.220 | 8.6 | 43 | 6.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 101 | 6.2 | 9 | 1 |
| Josh Hader | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 1.000 | 9.0 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 23 | 22.6 | 3.19 | 1.549 | 8.0 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever | 24 | 21.6 | 3.75 | 1.204 | 10.4 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nate Pearson | Middle Reliever | 5 | 4.2 | 6.43 | 1.905 | 10.7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
HOU wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 9 |
Quality edge: 1.3995; margin adjustment: 0.5878; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 204 | 820 | 254 | 0.310 | 2 | 101 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.311 | 0.356 | 0.445 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 226 | 897 | 242 | 0.270 | 66 | 182 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.315 | 0.476 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 245 | 892 | 249 | 0.279 | 23 | 156 | 0.405 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.395 | 0.426 | OK |
| Marcell Ozuna | DH | 193 | 776 | 148 | 0.191 | 25 | 102 | 0.280 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.203 | 0.277 | 0.311 | OK |
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 250 | 1060 | 286 | 0.270 | 55 | 178 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.286 | 0.386 | 0.520 | OK |
| Jhostynxon Garcia | RF | 24 | 83 | 19 | 0.229 | 0 | 2 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.248 | 0.275 | OK |
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 195 | 654 | 189 | 0.289 | 22 | 106 | 0.404 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.261 | 0.376 | 0.426 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | SS | 80 | 283 | 62 | 0.219 | 0 | 11 | 0.275 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.260 | 0.240 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 128 | 436 | 63 | 0.144 | 16 | 46 | 0.239 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.145 | 0.216 | 0.280 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 196 | 745 | 176 | 0.236 | 19 | 80 | 0.360 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.266 | 0.388 | 0.547 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 204 | 798 | 238 | 0.298 | 53 | 137 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.283 | 0.328 | 0.482 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 253 | 989 | 269 | 0.272 | 70 | 202 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.284 | 0.354 | 0.580 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 249 | 976 | 272 | 0.279 | 40 | 135 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.297 | 0.346 | 0.498 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | SS | 220 | 843 | 214 | 0.254 | 14 | 124 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.256 | 0.320 | 0.462 | OK |
| Dominic Smith | DH | 122 | 411 | 138 | 0.336 | 16 | 81 | 0.365 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.272 | 0.305 | 0.392 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 240 | 910 | 198 | 0.218 | 31 | 130 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.185 | 0.246 | 0.298 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 158 | 508 | 113 | 0.222 | 9 | 45 | 0.305 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.238 | 0.318 | 0.351 | OK |
| Sandy León | C | 23 | 52 | 4 | 0.077 | 0 | 0 | 0.077 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.159 | 0.169 | 0.220 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Mitch Keller | Starter | 12 | 67.4 | 4.41 | 1.187 | 6.8 | 51 | 5.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 100 | 5.2 | 2 | 4 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 28 | 26.7 | 2.02 | 0.787 | 11.5 | 34 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 26 | 22.8 | 5.13 | 1.579 | 7.9 | 20 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Martín Pérez | Starter | 12 | 50.5 | 2.85 | 1.089 | 7.5 | 42 | 5.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 88 | 5.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 18 | 18.2 | 0.99 | 0.934 | 10.9 | 22 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 27 | 26.5 | 0.68 | 0.906 | 8.5 | 25 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 29 | 26.1 | 1.38 | 0.690 | 12.1 | 35 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
ATL wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
Quality edge: -1.0635; margin adjustment: -0.4467; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 210 | 778 | 179 | 0.230 | 36 | 95 | 0.354 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.259 | 0.369 | 0.438 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 253 | 1035 | 266 | 0.257 | 49 | 133 | 0.315 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.283 | 0.470 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 245 | 907 | 275 | 0.303 | 24 | 110 | 0.388 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.311 | 0.376 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 234 | 934 | 248 | 0.266 | 23 | 109 | 0.329 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.301 | 0.355 | OK |
| Rob Refsnyder | DH | 87 | 218 | 24 | 0.110 | 8 | 22 | 0.205 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.177 | 0.238 | 0.350 | OK |
| Mitch Garver | C | 86 | 257 | 55 | 0.214 | 8 | 24 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.363 | 0.365 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 230 | 814 | 199 | 0.244 | 14 | 110 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.275 | 0.337 | 0.403 | OK |
| Victor Robles | RF | 26 | 84 | 24 | 0.286 | 0 | 4 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.253 | 0.350 | OK |
| Colt Emerson | 3B | 39 | 125 | 36 | 0.288 | 6 | 26 | 0.369 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.271 | 0.334 | 0.582 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Gleyber Torres | 2B | 147 | 542 | 140 | 0.258 | 11 | 52 | 0.393 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.276 | 0.393 | 0.388 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | 3B | 244 | 936 | 280 | 0.299 | 14 | 107 | 0.399 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.350 | 0.376 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 210 | 782 | 192 | 0.246 | 52 | 157 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.249 | 0.310 | 0.559 | OK |
| Kerry Carpenter | RF | 120 | 383 | 86 | 0.225 | 23 | 67 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.319 | 0.492 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 240 | 876 | 272 | 0.311 | 19 | 115 | 0.407 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.377 | 0.472 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 221 | 768 | 161 | 0.210 | 32 | 82 | 0.315 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.308 | 0.387 | OK |
| Colt Keith | DH | 167 | 541 | 152 | 0.281 | 0 | 23 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.199 | 0.251 | 0.271 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | CF | 120 | 379 | 57 | 0.150 | 5 | 36 | 0.233 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.145 | 0.259 | 0.202 | OK |
| Zack Short | SS | 32 | 71 | 12 | 0.169 | 0 | 2 | 0.384 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.136 | 0.329 | 0.186 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryan Woo | Starter | 12 | 70.2 | 3.46 | 0.969 | 8.7 | 68 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 100 | 6.0 | 6 | 1 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 24 | 21.5 | 5.02 | 1.349 | 14.7 | 35 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Brash | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.6 | 0.66 | 0.882 | 8.6 | 13 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| José A. Ferrer | Middle Reliever | 29 | 24.4 | 1.84 | 1.311 | 8.9 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Framber Valdez | Starter | 12 | 66.5 | 4.47 | 1.338 | 7.3 | 54 | 5.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 93 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 26 | 25.2 | 1.43 | 1.548 | 5.7 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Vest | Middle Reliever | 19 | 16.1 | 8.39 | 1.677 | 11.2 | 20 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyler Holton | Middle Reliever | 26 | 23.0 | 5.09 | 1.652 | 9.4 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Drew Anderson | Middle Reliever | 21 | 35.5 | 4.31 | 1.352 | 11.9 | 47 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brenan Hanifee | Middle Reliever | 11 | 10.7 | 1.68 | 1.308 | 5.0 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
SEA wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 5 |
Quality edge: 1.4531; margin adjustment: 0.6103; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Casey Schmitt | LF | 201 | 798 | 243 | 0.305 | 52 | 136 | 0.347 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.257 | 0.277 | 0.471 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 235 | 917 | 231 | 0.252 | 29 | 125 | 0.300 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.227 | 0.282 | 0.383 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 232 | 943 | 318 | 0.337 | 10 | 101 | 0.379 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.319 | 0.363 | 0.444 | OK |
| Willy Adames | SS | 238 | 999 | 254 | 0.254 | 32 | 93 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.265 | 0.308 | 0.493 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 200 | 787 | 235 | 0.299 | 12 | 77 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.375 | 0.401 | 0.498 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 57 | 185 | 41 | 0.222 | 5 | 9 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.295 | 0.373 | 0.469 | OK |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 234 | 899 | 203 | 0.226 | 6 | 83 | 0.316 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.300 | 0.362 | OK |
| Daniel Susac | C | 57 | 201 | 69 | 0.343 | 0 | 38 | 0.398 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.283 | 0.335 | OK |
| Drew Gilbert | CF | 117 | 395 | 97 | 0.246 | 9 | 34 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.265 | 0.409 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 260 | 1095 | 282 | 0.258 | 21 | 162 | 0.342 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.260 | 0.336 | 0.354 | OK |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 239 | 881 | 216 | 0.245 | 29 | 113 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 0.352 | 0.515 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 260 | 1074 | 280 | 0.261 | 18 | 83 | 0.349 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.246 | 0.323 | 0.368 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 187 | 723 | 185 | 0.256 | 33 | 89 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.246 | 0.312 | 0.412 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 244 | 956 | 231 | 0.242 | 65 | 154 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.272 | 0.358 | 0.549 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | DH | 152 | 559 | 174 | 0.311 | 6 | 63 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.279 | 0.335 | 0.359 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 253 | 933 | 223 | 0.239 | 30 | 158 | 0.382 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.382 | 0.423 | OK |
| Miguel Amaya | C | 92 | 301 | 66 | 0.219 | 12 | 33 | 0.325 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.283 | 0.289 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 219 | 759 | 152 | 0.200 | 33 | 118 | 0.306 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.303 | 0.314 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Robbie Ray | Starter | 12 | 60.8 | 4.59 | 1.447 | 8.7 | 59 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 96 | 4.2 | 4 | 4 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 26 | 23.7 | 4.18 | 1.392 | 11.4 | 30 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 26 | 25.7 | 2.45 | 0.934 | 8.1 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Miller | Middle Reliever | 20 | 15.1 | 4.77 | 1.722 | 14.9 | 25 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Edward Cabrera | Starter | 10 | 52.6 | 4.11 | 1.388 | 8.0 | 47 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 88 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 15 | 12.5 | 2.16 | 1.360 | 10.1 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 26 | 23.1 | 2.73 | 1.472 | 12.5 | 32 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Caleb Thielbar | Middle Reliever | 15 | 11.0 | 4.09 | 1.636 | 12.3 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Hoby Milner | Middle Reliever | 28 | 22.3 | 2.83 | 1.166 | 5.7 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
CHC wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| MIA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.5952; margin adjustment: -0.25; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 227 | 941 | 266 | 0.283 | 0 | 44 | 0.318 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.179 | 0.226 | 0.226 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 238 | 936 | 251 | 0.268 | 58 | 130 | 0.367 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.286 | 0.399 | 0.493 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 233 | 867 | 249 | 0.287 | 44 | 192 | 0.383 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.255 | 0.371 | 0.443 | OK |
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 224 | 877 | 278 | 0.317 | 33 | 157 | 0.397 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.293 | 0.370 | 0.490 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 120 | 373 | 102 | 0.273 | 4 | 58 | 0.383 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.305 | 0.272 | OK |
| Ryan Vilade | RF | 81 | 241 | 81 | 0.336 | 8 | 60 | 0.398 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.320 | 0.444 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 187 | 694 | 131 | 0.189 | 14 | 74 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.279 | 0.316 | OK |
| Nick Fortes | C | 138 | 453 | 113 | 0.249 | 4 | 38 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.244 | 0.306 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 147 | 491 | 99 | 0.202 | 0 | 54 | 0.304 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.197 | 0.287 | 0.276 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Liam Hicks | DH | 209 | 746 | 209 | 0.280 | 48 | 199 | 0.358 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.362 | 0.449 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 238 | 959 | 332 | 0.346 | 20 | 108 | 0.377 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.320 | 0.347 | 0.476 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | 1B | 145 | 549 | 115 | 0.209 | 13 | 45 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.217 | 0.285 | 0.384 | OK |
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 244 | 927 | 297 | 0.320 | 26 | 85 | 0.406 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.295 | 0.391 | 0.434 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 3B | 124 | 428 | 121 | 0.283 | 4 | 79 | 0.322 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.277 | 0.349 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 154 | 482 | 112 | 0.232 | 12 | 97 | 0.289 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.315 | 0.379 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 243 | 896 | 174 | 0.194 | 13 | 64 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.201 | 0.315 | 0.298 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 66 | 216 | 47 | 0.218 | 1 | 29 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.278 | 0.340 | OK |
| Esteury Ruiz | LF | 45 | 127 | 25 | 0.197 | 9 | 18 | 0.226 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.126 | 0.180 | 0.350 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0.212 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Drew Rasmussen | Starter | 11 | 58.3 | 3.40 | 1.029 | 8.5 | 55 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 97 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 27 | 24.4 | 2.21 | 1.066 | 10.7 | 29 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Ian Seymour | Middle Reliever | 25 | 26.8 | 4.37 | 1.381 | 11.1 | 33 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 26 | 22.8 | 3.16 | 0.965 | 7.5 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ryan Gusto | Starter | 2 | 3.0 | 9.00 | 1.667 | 12.0 | 4 | 3.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 78 | 3.0 | 2 | 4 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.4 | 7.01 | 1.364 | 13.4 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Anthony Bender | Middle Reliever | 25 | 19.9 | 4.07 | 1.106 | 11.8 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever | 22 | 20.3 | 3.99 | 1.281 | 11.1 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 25 | 20.5 | 4.83 | 1.951 | 11.9 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| John King | Middle Reliever | 28 | 21.3 | 2.96 | 0.845 | 8.5 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
TB wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| ARI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.2567; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | RF | 272 | 1048 | 301 | 0.287 | 76 | 194 | 0.429 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.248 | 0.373 | 0.495 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 179 | 665 | 185 | 0.278 | 21 | 123 | 0.300 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.207 | 0.243 | 0.403 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 252 | 1037 | 263 | 0.254 | 32 | 125 | 0.311 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.223 | 0.277 | 0.343 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 244 | 927 | 276 | 0.298 | 48 | 206 | 0.388 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.281 | 0.345 | 0.471 | OK |
| Jorbit Vivas | 3B | 123 | 366 | 93 | 0.254 | 4 | 21 | 0.341 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.222 | 0.298 | 0.326 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | CF | 35 | 145 | 34 | 0.234 | 4 | 7 | 0.265 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.216 | 0.237 | 0.315 | OK |
| Drew Millas | C | 101 | 337 | 61 | 0.181 | 5 | 29 | 0.262 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.257 | 0.300 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | 2B | 194 | 663 | 128 | 0.193 | 0 | 63 | 0.295 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.281 | 0.251 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 45 | 41 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 0.268 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 229 | 971 | 267 | 0.275 | 42 | 151 | 0.321 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.237 | 0.292 | 0.455 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | LF | 74 | 260 | 71 | 0.273 | 0 | 28 | 0.339 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.207 | 0.276 | 0.317 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 229 | 850 | 254 | 0.299 | 34 | 130 | 0.397 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.287 | 0.362 | 0.576 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 200 | 694 | 191 | 0.275 | 30 | 118 | 0.358 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.321 | 0.439 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 224 | 788 | 178 | 0.226 | 10 | 81 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.339 | 0.354 | OK |
| Tommy Troy | DH | 20 | 63 | 22 | 0.349 | 1 | 1 | 0.431 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.358 | 0.485 | OK |
| Aramis Garcia | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.307 | 0.394 | |
| Jorge Barrosa | CF | 91 | 290 | 56 | 0.193 | 2 | 24 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.186 | 0.266 | 0.337 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 204 | 823 | 252 | 0.306 | 32 | 155 | 0.332 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.271 | 0.367 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 37 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.216 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Foster Griffin | Starter | 12 | 66.3 | 3.80 | 1.161 | 8.8 | 65 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 97 | 5.2 | 3 | 3 |
| Clayton Beeter | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.6 | 3.46 | 1.474 | 10.4 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 18 | 35.3 | 2.80 | 1.133 | 8.4 | 33 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Orlando Ribalta | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.4 | 1.75 | 1.039 | 7.6 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Richard Lovelady | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.4 | 3.51 | 2.143 | 9.9 | 17 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Henry | Reliever | 8 | 9.3 | 5.81 | 1.720 | 11.6 | 12 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Merrill Kelly | Starter | 9 | 52.4 | 5.15 | 1.489 | 5.7 | 33 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 95 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.476 | 8.6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 7.5 | 1 | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1.2 | 1 | 4 |
WAS wins 7-5 (Extra Innings - 10)