MLB Predictions — June 4, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
BAL @ BOS	4 - 5	3 - 5	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 5-3	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CLE @ NYY	2 - 3	2 - 4	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 4-2	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
KC @ MIN	3 - 2	3 - 0	KC	KC	KC wins 3-0	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAD @ ARI	5 - 1	6 - 1	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 6-1	61%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
OAK @ CHC	2 - 1	4 - 2	OAK	OAK	OAK wins 4-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PIT @ HOU	2 - 6	1 - 7	HOU	HOU	HOU wins 7-1	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SD @ PHI	1 - 3	1 - 4	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 4-1	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SF @ MIL	1 - 6	2 - 6	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 6-2	65%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TOR @ ATL	1 - 3	1 - 3	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 3-1	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

BAL 30-33 (4.57 RPG / 5.16 RA)

3 - 5

BOS 26-35 (3.98 RPG / 4.08 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 5-3 TARGET: BAL 4 - 5 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 54.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	7
BOS	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	x	5	8

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.190

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-151.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.222

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-106.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record29-33

Win%0.468

Run Diff-43

RD/Game-0.694

BOS Season Quality

Record26-34

Win%0.433

Run Diff0

RD/Game0.000

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6419; margin adjustment: 0.2696; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	LF	256	938	246	0.262	9	73	0.408	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	0.250	0.251	0.400	0.338	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	258	1104	233	0.211	54	137	0.265	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.212	0.261	0.391	OK
Adley Rutschman	DH	164	639	170	0.266	31	113	0.338	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.243	0.332	0.427	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	248	951	231	0.243	42	152	0.324	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.264	0.331	0.470	OK
Samuel Basallo	C	166	604	164	0.272	32	89	0.331	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.286	0.363	0.519	OK
Leody Taveras	CF	164	554	153	0.276	9	90	0.367	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.213	0.297	0.332	OK
Colton Cowser	RF	116	326	67	0.206	9	42	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.238	0.329	0.390	OK
Coby Mayo	3B	154	510	109	0.214	22	72	0.290	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.223	0.285	0.431	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	30	97	22	0.227	5	19	0.296	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.232	0.311	0.365	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	3	3	4	11	0.206

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jarren Duran	LF	225	939	203	0.216	38	136	0.287	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.226	0.284	0.428	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	203	773	220	0.285	18	90	0.350	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.313	0.415	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	235	927	261	0.282	27	104	0.347	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.258	0.323	0.419	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	224	826	234	0.283	49	157	0.380	4	2	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.289	0.379	0.471	OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	SS	73	218	71	0.326	4	36	0.410	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.280	0.359	0.356	OK
Andruw Monasterio	2B	96	341	88	0.258	6	44	0.309	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.170	0.223	0.299	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	173	596	114	0.191	5	75	0.267	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.235	0.279	0.379	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	116	371	76	0.205	7	11	0.287	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.190	0.258	0.285	OK
Connor Wong	DH	69	212	51	0.241	0	32	0.332	4	4	2	1	2	0	2	0.500	0.176	0.260	0.300	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	8	5	5	2	11	0.250

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trevor Rogers	Starter	10	46.8	7.12	1.624	7.3	38	4.0	7	4	4	1	6	96	4.0	6	4
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	28	24.0	0.75	0.667	11.2	30	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	21	1.2	2	0
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	14	9.8	8.27	1.939	11.9	13	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	25	16.4	2.74	0.793	8.8	16	1.1	1	1	1	0	3	20	1.1	3	1

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brayan Bello	Starter	11	53.9	5.84	1.707	6.7	40	4.1	6	3	3	2	8	85	4.1	8	3
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	19	18.2	0.49	0.879	12.4	25	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	15	1.1	0	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	11	8.6	4.19	1.512	14.7	14	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Jovani Morán	Middle Reliever	19	28.2	3.19	1.064	11.2	35	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever	25	20.8	4.33	1.442	10.8	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-3

Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees

CLE 36-28 (4.12 RPG / 4.03 RA)

2 - 4

NYY 37-25 (5.08 RPG / 3.58 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 4-2 TARGET: CLE 2 - 3 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 56.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	4
NYY	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	x	4	5

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.339

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff-122.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.273

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff-74.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record36-27

Win%0.571

Run Diff7

RD/Game0.111

NYY Season Quality

Record36-25

Win%0.590

Run Diff92

RD/Game1.508

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.4252; margin adjustment: 0.5986; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
David Fry	DH	88	256	68	0.266	10	28	0.356	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.258	0.342	0.391	OK
José Ramírez	3B	255	947	226	0.239	37	129	0.353	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.268	0.363	0.472	OK
Rhys Hoskins	1B	154	481	99	0.206	23	85	0.346	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.228	0.354	0.488	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	117	427	126	0.295	12	52	0.404	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.255	0.337	0.406	OK
Angel Martínez	RF	195	752	195	0.259	38	119	0.298	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.201	0.223	0.340	OK
Stuart Fairchild	CF	2	5	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.124	0.139	0.194
Steven Kwan	LF	233	881	186	0.211	4	56	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.214	0.315	0.269	OK
Austin Hedges	C	84	265	67	0.253	5	19	0.324	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.227	0.298	0.333	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	208	697	208	0.298	14	105	0.376	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.249	0.310	0.356	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	4	2	2	3	3	0.129

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trent Grisham	CF	214	784	165	0.210	32	133	0.327	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.230	0.347	0.383	OK
Ben Rice	DH	217	825	248	0.301	70	172	0.402	4	2	1	1	3	1	1	0.500	0.320	0.411	0.643	OK
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	113	425	121	0.285	25	70	0.367	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.284	0.350	0.552	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	239	875	239	0.273	36	163	0.378	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.264	0.375	0.432	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	220	834	207	0.248	28	93	0.328	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.242	0.313	0.424	OK
José Caballero	SS	168	592	163	0.275	19	64	0.329	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.273	0.318	0.435	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	156	521	104	0.200	18	66	0.261	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.229	0.279	0.419	OK
J.C. Escarra	C	62	211	47	0.223	0	28	0.270	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.249	0.297	0.354	OK
Max Schuemann	RF	21	55	17	0.309	0	6	0.472	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.209	0.395	0.378	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	28	5	4	4	6	8	0.179

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Slade Cecconi	Starter	12	59.8	5.42	1.538	7.5	50	4.2	5	3	3	1	5	89	4.2	5	3
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	28	28.2	2.87	1.099	13.7	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	18	14.0	3.86	1.429	9.0	14	1.1	0	1	1	3	1	29	1.1	1	1
Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever	17	13.2	2.05	1.364	13.6	20	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Carlos Rodón	Starter	4	18.3	3.44	1.366	9.8	20	5.1	3	1	1	3	1	97	5.1	1	1
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	24	22.6	4.78	1.681	11.5	29	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.1	1	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	29	19.0	2.84	1.684	15.6	33	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	28	19.1	4.24	1.466	6.1	13	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	20	1.1	1	1

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-2

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

KC 24-38 (3.84 RPG / 4.65 RA)

3 - 0

MIN 29-34 (4.6 RPG / 4.98 RA)

WINNER: KC wins 3-0 TARGET: KC 3 - 2 MIN (KC) Confidence: 52.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	7
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5

KC Recent Form

Win%0.158

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-172.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.263

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-142.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

KC Season Quality

Record24-38

Win%0.387

Run Diff-50

RD/Game-0.806

MIN Season Quality

Record29-34

Win%0.460

Run Diff-24

RD/Game-0.381

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5353; margin adjustment: 0.2248; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	191	656	151	0.230	24	101	0.317	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.206	0.282	0.356	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	249	998	287	0.288	40	112	0.357	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.254	0.339	0.416	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	233	878	173	0.197	24	110	0.295	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.219	0.316	0.359	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	227	876	194	0.221	42	111	0.275	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.201	0.248	0.326	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	185	647	144	0.223	19	43	0.298	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.189	0.263	0.326	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	183	603	134	0.222	11	71	0.349	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.205	0.313	0.295	OK
Michael Massey	2B	119	377	91	0.241	12	52	0.258	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.217	0.245	0.404	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	75	222	47	0.212	1	50	0.318	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.211	0.305	0.354	OK
Kyle Isbel	CF	157	511	133	0.260	11	42	0.310	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.205	0.237	0.312	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	3	3	2	6	0.206

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Byron Buxton	DH	223	954	255	0.267	83	135	0.327	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.243	0.297	0.461	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	213	808	202	0.250	26	125	0.307	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.247	0.294	0.442	OK
Kody Clemens	1B	172	627	143	0.228	22	70	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.188	0.251	0.381	OK
Austin Martin	RF	179	654	188	0.287	10	75	0.386	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.222	0.307	0.308	OK
Trevor Larnach	LF	161	561	153	0.273	9	57	0.377	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.195	0.310	0.305	OK
Luke Keaschall	2B	215	799	195	0.244	5	84	0.324	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.280	0.342	0.359	OK
Victor Caratini	C	153	514	95	0.185	5	74	0.282	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.217	0.290	0.273	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	51	167	43	0.257	9	27	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.198	0.264	0.348	OK
James Outman	CF	65	193	35	0.181	0	12	0.237	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.118	0.179	0.218	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	0	0	2	8	0.156

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Seth Lugo	Starter	12	69.6	3.62	1.379	7.8	60	5.2	3	0	0	1	5	101	5.2	5	0
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	23	21.4	5.47	1.822	8.4	20	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	18	16.4	4.39	1.341	9.3	17	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	24	21.3	2.11	1.127	11.8	28	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	24	1.1	0	0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Morris	Starter	17	19.9	4.97	1.859	9.9	22	4.0	3	2	2	2	5	78	4.0	5	2
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	14	10.8	0.83	0.926	13.3	16	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	25	18.0	3.50	1.778	8.5	17	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	28	2.0	1	0
Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	24	24.0	4.50	1.667	10.1	27	1.2	2	1	1	0	0	27	1.2	0	1

Game Summary

KC wins 3-0

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

LAD 40-22 (5.29 RPG / 3.13 RA)

6 - 1

ARI 32-29 (4.48 RPG / 4.43 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 6-1 TARGET: LAD 5 - 1 ARI (LAD) Confidence: 61.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	6	9
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.310

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed2.6

Run Diff-68.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.362

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff-80.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

LAD Season Quality

Record39-22

Win%0.639

Run Diff127

RD/Game2.082

ARI Season Quality

Record32-28

Win%0.533

Run Diff10

RD/Game0.167

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.0743; margin adjustment: -0.8712; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mookie Betts	SS	97	415	75	0.181	29	73	0.227	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.212	0.261	0.367	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	233	881	239	0.271	32	127	0.369	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.290	0.364	0.492	OK
Andy Pages	CF	232	887	277	0.312	58	222	0.361	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.290	0.340	0.533	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	233	898	228	0.254	22	122	0.347	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.258	0.344	0.435	OK
Will Smith	DH	177	663	170	0.256	22	99	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.266	0.358	0.440	OK
Max Muncy	3B	197	701	183	0.261	54	83	0.360	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.251	0.331	0.488	OK
Ryan Ward	LF	6	26	10	0.385	0	5	0.385	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.242	0.254	0.320	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	95	324	92	0.284	31	68	0.364	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.257	0.313	0.462	OK
Alex Freeland	2B	121	390	97	0.249	9	37	0.327	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.277	0.356	0.431	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	9	6	6	3	9	0.250

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ketel Marte	2B	228	966	266	0.275	41	150	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.213	0.280	0.389	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	228	846	251	0.297	33	129	0.395	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.239	0.319	0.477	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	129	466	122	0.262	13	74	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.238	0.318	0.365	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	199	690	190	0.275	30	118	0.359	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.232	0.306	0.423	OK
Ryan Waldschmidt	CF	73	256	69	0.270	0	28	0.337	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.179	0.250	0.279	OK
Ildemaro Vargas	1B	203	821	252	0.307	32	155	0.333	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.242	0.271	0.368	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	223	784	176	0.224	10	80	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.204	0.309	0.308	OK
Jose Fernandez	DH	157	561	150	0.267	12	59	0.305	3	2	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.194	0.239	0.278	OK
Tommy Troy	LF	19	59	21	0.356	1	1	0.441	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.236	0.328	0.439	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	4	1	1	3	13	0.129

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Justin Wrobleski	Starter	10	62.2	2.89	1.013	5.8	40	6.2	1	0	0	1	9	103	6.2	9	0
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	27	24.5	2.20	0.735	10.7	29	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Kyle Hurt	Middle Reliever	19	18.2	2.47	0.989	10.9	22	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	22	1.0	2	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	26	16.6	2.71	1.145	15.2	28	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	14	0.1	1	0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryne Nelson	Starter	12	62.3	5.06	1.252	7.5	52	6.2	4	1	1	1	6	100	6.2	6	1
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	20	1.0	1	1
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	0.2	4	3	3	1	1	18	0.2	1	3
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	16	0.1	1	0
Taylor Clarke	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	360.00	30.000	0.0	0	0.1	0	1	1	0	0	16	0.1	0	1

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-1

Oakland Athletics @ Chicago Cubs

OAK 30-31 (4.25 RPG / 4.77 RA)

4 - 2

CHC 32-30 (4.66 RPG / 4.39 RA)

WINNER: OAK wins 4-2 TARGET: OAK 2 - 1 CHC (OAK) Confidence: 52.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	4	8
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	4

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.211

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff-150.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.115

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff-162.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record29-31

Win%0.483

Run Diff-33

RD/Game-0.550

CHC Season Quality

Record32-29

Win%0.525

Run Diff18

RD/Game0.295

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.907; margin adjustment: 0.3809; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Henry Bolte	CF	49	175	53	0.303	0	16	0.360	5	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.273	0.327	0.347	OK
Nick Kurtz	1B	253	919	263	0.286	41	177	0.439	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.297	0.431	0.570	OK
Shea Langeliers	DH	233	967	294	0.304	60	132	0.373	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.250	0.311	0.466	OK
Colby Thomas	RF	42	115	36	0.313	3	15	0.358	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.234	0.286	0.418	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	227	877	192	0.219	27	112	0.307	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.287	0.379	0.502	OK
Jonah Heim	C	31	114	20	0.175	1	3	0.236	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.205	0.290	0.386	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	139	517	133	0.257	26	72	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.227	0.273	0.363	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	192	674	180	0.267	6	58	0.336	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.223	0.284	0.296	OK
Alika Williams	SS	9	26	5	0.192	0	5	0.192	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.106	0.118	0.154	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	4	4	1	7	0.229

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	238	877	214	0.244	28	111	0.337	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.274	0.333	0.464	OK
Michael Conforto	RF	88	250	74	0.296	12	42	0.415	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.211	0.340	0.492	OK
Michael Busch	1B	252	930	222	0.239	30	158	0.382	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.272	0.380	0.423	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	259	1070	279	0.261	18	83	0.349	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.244	0.322	0.356	OK
Ian Happ	LF	243	952	229	0.241	64	151	0.360	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.260	0.350	0.523	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	259	1091	281	0.258	21	162	0.342	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.250	0.334	0.348	OK
Moisés Ballesteros	C	143	443	92	0.208	23	72	0.285	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.189	0.262	0.325	OK
Pedro Ramirez	DH	9	26	7	0.269	0	4	0.367	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.144	0.239	0.303	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	218	755	151	0.200	33	117	0.306	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.186	0.303	0.317	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	4	2	2	3	8	0.129

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
J.T. Ginn	Starter	13	57.8	2.96	1.176	8.1	52	5.2	3	2	2	2	7	94	5.2	7	2
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	32	22.7	3.17	1.938	13.1	33	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	27	22.3	6.05	1.614	10.1	25	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	27	22.8	1.97	1.053	9.1	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shota Imanaga	Starter	12	69.3	4.42	1.082	9.0	69	5.2	7	3	3	1	5	96	5.2	5	3
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	15	12.5	2.16	1.360	10.1	14	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	26	23.1	2.73	1.472	12.5	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	15	11.0	4.09	1.636	12.3	15	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	13	1.1	1	1

Game Summary

OAK wins 4-2

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros

PIT 33-29 (5.16 RPG / 4.63 RA)

1 - 7

HOU 28-35 (4.57 RPG / 5.13 RA)

WINNER: HOU wins 7-1 TARGET: PIT 2 - 6 HOU (HOU) Confidence: 64.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	3
HOU	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	x	7	8

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.296

Avg Runs1.8

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff-98.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.397

Avg Runs1.7

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-157.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record33-28

Win%0.541

Run Diff35

RD/Game0.574

HOU Season Quality

Record27-35

Win%0.435

Run Diff-37

RD/Game-0.597

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.3288; margin adjustment: -0.5581; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Spencer Horwitz	1B	194	650	189	0.291	22	106	0.405	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.294	0.401	0.467	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	225	892	240	0.269	66	182	0.361	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.233	0.315	0.471	OK
Bryan Reynolds	RF	244	888	248	0.279	23	155	0.405	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.285	0.423	0.488	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	DH	184	714	208	0.291	30	131	0.367	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.266	0.347	0.442	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	203	816	253	0.310	2	101	0.363	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.326	0.372	0.462	OK
Oneil Cruz	CF	249	1058	284	0.268	55	178	0.336	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.276	0.367	0.551	OK
Endy Rodríguez	C	25	76	21	0.276	1	11	0.433	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.247	0.402	0.408	OK
Jake Mangum	LF	106	381	103	0.270	1	14	0.329	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.293	0.341	0.375	OK
Jared Triolo	SS	79	279	62	0.222	0	11	0.279	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.208	0.272	0.253	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	30	3	1	1	2	12	0.100

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	92	382	99	0.259	10	30	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.291	0.331	0.458	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	250	927	308	0.332	99	189	0.447	4	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.319	0.423	0.621	OK
Christian Walker	1B	235	895	245	0.274	67	186	0.348	4	4	3	1	6	0	1	0.750	0.235	0.293	0.453	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	215	803	193	0.240	27	106	0.336	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.230	0.313	0.421	OK
Taylor Trammell	LF	48	165	55	0.333	0	24	0.379	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.196	0.239	0.322	OK
Cam Smith	RF	218	763	168	0.220	20	91	0.314	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.238	0.321	0.406	OK
Jake Meyers	CF	70	266	59	0.222	9	25	0.292	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.223	0.282	0.346	OK
Brice Matthews	2B	155	543	113	0.208	16	51	0.260	4	4	2	1	0	0	2	0.500	0.180	0.231	0.281	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	122	404	109	0.270	16	67	0.328	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.229	0.286	0.360	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	8	7	7	2	10	0.250

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jared Jones	Starter	1	4.1	10.98	2.195	13.2	6	4.1	8	7	7	0	3	79	4.1	3	7
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	28	26.7	2.02	0.787	11.5	34	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	17	1.1	3	0
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	26	22.8	5.13	1.579	7.9	20	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	23	19.0	5.21	1.579	15.2	32	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18	1.0	1	0
Carmen Mlodzinski	Middle Reliever	11	52.9	3.91	1.474	7.8	46	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	27	1.1	3	0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kai-Wei Teng	Starter	18	39.2	2.76	1.173	9.9	43	6.0	2	1	1	2	8	102	6.0	8	1
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	0.00	1.000	9.0	1	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	17	0.2	1	0
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	23	22.6	3.19	1.549	8.0	20	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	20	1.0	2	0
Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	23	20.6	3.93	1.214	10.5	24	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

HOU wins 7-1

San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies

SD 32-29 (3.85 RPG / 4.02 RA)

1 - 4

PHI 33-29 (3.9 RPG / 4.26 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 4-1 TARGET: SD 1 - 3 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 52.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5
PHI	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	x	4	10

SD Recent Form

Win%0.182

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-130.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.193

Avg Runs0.6

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-151.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SD Season Quality

Record32-28

Win%0.533

Run Diff-8

RD/Game-0.133

PHI Season Quality

Record32-29

Win%0.525

Run Diff-24

RD/Game-0.393

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2732; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	2B	232	894	237	0.265	1	70	0.341	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.285	0.341	0.376	OK
Gavin Sheets	LF	174	591	147	0.249	33	87	0.331	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.217	0.308	0.418	OK
Manny Machado	3B	222	803	140	0.174	40	122	0.267	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.182	0.263	0.348	OK
Ty France	1B	104	356	105	0.295	20	61	0.327	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.271	0.300	0.499	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	221	863	177	0.205	18	90	0.279	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.221	0.289	0.357	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	214	792	198	0.250	30	105	0.320	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.211	0.292	0.341	OK
Miguel Andujar	DH	169	643	180	0.280	19	71	0.307	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.236	0.263	0.378	OK
Freddy Fermin	C	109	346	48	0.139	0	13	0.243	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.116	0.216	0.176	OK
Bryce Johnson	RF	36	99	16	0.162	0	6	0.252	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.111	0.198	0.193	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	1	1	2	7	0.156

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Schwarber	DH	244	949	233	0.246	99	186	0.359	5	4	1	1	2	1	0	0.250	0.232	0.337	0.552	OK
Trea Turner	SS	245	1054	245	0.232	34	89	0.279	5	4	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.234	0.270	0.355	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	235	853	234	0.274	58	150	0.382	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.230	0.361	0.464	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	197	734	250	0.341	23	111	0.372	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.339	0.373	0.494	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	214	805	173	0.215	18	100	0.274	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.207	0.259	0.324	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	190	684	149	0.218	21	99	0.269	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.192	0.240	0.353	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	134	468	117	0.250	10	42	0.325	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.237	0.284	0.376	OK
Adolis García	RF	218	776	153	0.197	12	69	0.284	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.177	0.243	0.272	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	178	609	144	0.236	8	44	0.301	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.221	0.269	0.339	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	10	4	4	4	9	0.294

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Lucas Giolito	Starter	3	12.2	5.16	1.803	4.4	6	4.1	6	4	4	3	3	95	4.1	3	4
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	24	23.6	0.76	0.890	18.7	49	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	22	1.0	2	0
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	24	18.9	1.90	1.270	6.2	13	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	27	25.1	4.66	1.275	12.5	35	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	14	0.2	0	0
Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	21	18.1	3.98	1.271	11.4	23	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zack Wheeler	Starter	7	43.2	2.29	0.856	8.3	40	6.1	3	1	1	0	6	93	6.1	6	1
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	20	19.2	1.41	0.885	14.5	31	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	12	1.0	0	0
Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	27	25.5	3.88	1.294	10.2	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	25	20.0	2.70	1.300	10.8	24	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	16	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 4-1

San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers

SF 25-38 (3.97 RPG / 4.97 RA)

2 - 6

MIL 37-23 (5.02 RPG / 3.53 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 6-2 TARGET: SF 1 - 6 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 64.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	5
MIL	0	2	0	4	0	0	0	0	x	6	9

SF Recent Form

Win%0.211

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-161.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.385

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff-60.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SF Season Quality

Record24-38

Win%0.387

Run Diff-66

RD/Game-1.065

MIL Season Quality

Record37-22

Win%0.627

Run Diff92

RD/Game1.559

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.9839; margin adjustment: 1.2532; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Casey Schmitt	LF	200	793	241	0.304	51	134	0.347	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.238	0.260	0.429	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	234	911	230	0.252	29	125	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.212	0.270	0.362	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	231	939	316	0.337	10	100	0.379	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.284	0.330	0.399	OK
Willy Adames	SS	237	993	252	0.254	32	92	0.288	4	2	1	0	0	2	0	0.500	0.239	0.285	0.457	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	199	782	231	0.295	12	76	0.339	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.335	0.363	0.462	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	56	181	38	0.210	5	8	0.294	4	3	1	1	2	0	1	0.333	0.255	0.331	0.438	OK
Matt Chapman	3B	233	894	200	0.224	6	81	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.199	0.280	0.334	OK
Eric Haase	C	32	101	30	0.297	11	18	0.324	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.251	0.284	0.539	OK
Drew Gilbert	CF	116	390	95	0.244	9	34	0.296	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.214	0.250	0.401	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	5	2	2	3	12	0.161

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Christian Yelich	DH	103	399	117	0.293	15	63	0.358	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.299	0.371	0.461	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	94	404	115	0.285	5	30	0.333	5	3	1	1	0	2	0	0.333	0.299	0.362	0.473	OK
Brice Turang	2B	232	866	249	0.288	34	154	0.408	5	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.278	0.402	0.456	OK
William Contreras	C	222	898	267	0.297	17	156	0.368	5	4	1	1	2	1	0	0.250	0.259	0.323	0.360	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	185	697	198	0.284	36	133	0.357	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.251	0.336	0.494	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	170	589	143	0.243	7	106	0.354	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.244	0.356	0.387	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	190	688	154	0.224	14	67	0.292	4	3	2	1	0	0	1	0.667	0.245	0.306	0.346	OK
Luis Rengifo	3B	170	614	133	0.217	0	62	0.287	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.175	0.258	0.235	OK
David Hamilton	SS	147	470	111	0.236	1	32	0.328	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.233	0.319	0.302	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	33	9	6	6	6	7	0.273

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Adrian Houser	Starter	11	53.3	5.91	1.651	5.9	35	4.2	9	6	6	6	3	110	4.2	3	6
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	25	22.7	4.36	1.410	11.5	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.0	0	0
Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	26	25.7	2.45	0.934	8.1	23	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	20	15.1	4.77	1.722	14.9	25	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	17	0.2	2	0
Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	9	6.6	2.73	2.121	12.3	9	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	0.1	1	0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Coleman Crow	Starter	3	14.1	3.19	0.993	5.1	8	4.2	3	1	1	1	8	81	4.2	8	1
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	22	22.0	2.45	0.909	11.5	28	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	24	1.0	1	1
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	24	20.7	4.35	1.353	10.0	23	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	27	33.6	2.41	1.458	13.9	52	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	24	1.1	1	0
DL Hall	Middle Reliever	23	25.4	2.48	1.457	11.0	31	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	24	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 6-2

Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves

TOR 29-33 (4.03 RPG / 4.23 RA)

1 - 3

ATL 42-20 (5.27 RPG / 3.44 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 3-1 TARGET: TOR 1 - 3 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 56.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3
ATL	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	x	3	8

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.241

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff-119.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.278

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-80.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TOR Season Quality

Record29-33

Win%0.468

Run Diff-12

RD/Game-0.194

ATL Season Quality

Record42-20

Win%0.677

Run Diff114

RD/Game1.839

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.3468; margin adjustment: 0.9856; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
George Springer	DH	165	673	143	0.212	23	65	0.290	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.194	0.256	0.330	OK
Ernie Clement	SS	226	905	275	0.304	22	90	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.284	0.302	0.415	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	230	845	248	0.293	12	99	0.392	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.269	0.354	0.365	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	228	851	188	0.221	50	134	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.221	0.306	0.449	OK
Charles McAdoo	2B	2	8	2	0.250	1	2	0.250	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.223	0.232	0.362	OK
Nathan Lukes	LF	74	254	83	0.327	1	35	0.369	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.289	0.316	0.427	OK
Myles Straw	CF	97	247	61	0.247	7	17	0.324	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.135	0.211	0.212	OK
Tyler Heineman	C	77	214	35	0.164	3	10	0.218	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.158	0.200	0.245	OK
Yohendrick Pinango	RF	84	289	89	0.308	9	47	0.338	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.252	0.280	0.403	OK
TEAM TOTALS									31	30	3	1	1	1	3	0.100

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	195	741	175	0.236	19	80	0.360	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.267	0.399	0.578	OK
Mauricio Dubón	SS	219	840	212	0.252	13	123	0.307	4	4	2	0	0	0	2	0.500	0.224	0.280	0.376	OK
Matt Olson	1B	252	986	269	0.273	70	201	0.356	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.296	0.366	0.590	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	248	972	272	0.280	40	135	0.338	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.302	0.353	0.498	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	203	795	237	0.298	53	137	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.294	0.331	0.480	OK
Dominic Smith	DH	121	407	138	0.339	16	81	0.368	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.287	0.325	0.411	OK
Austin Riley	3B	239	906	198	0.219	31	130	0.292	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.190	0.262	0.307	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	LF	157	506	113	0.223	9	45	0.304	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.262	0.337	0.386	OK
Sandy León	C	22	50	4	0.080	0	0	0.080	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.667	0.161	0.171	0.229	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	8	3	3	3	5	0.250

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mason Fluharty	Starter	31	15.9	4.53	1.824	17.0	30	4.2	5	3	3	3	4	86	4.2	4	3
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	28	28.2	0.32	1.135	13.4	42	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	5	1.1	0	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	28	24.1	2.61	1.245	6.0	16	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	31	29.0	2.79	1.069	10.6	34	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chris Sale	Starter	11	67.0	2.01	0.940	10.7	80	6.2	1	0	0	0	3	95	6.2	3	0
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	18	18.2	0.99	0.934	10.9	22	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	4	1.0	0	0
Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	27	26.5	0.68	0.906	8.5	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.0	0	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	29	26.1	1.38	0.690	12.1	35	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	15	0.1	0	1

Game Summary

ATL wins 3-1

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

BAL Recent Form

BOS Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

BOS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees

CLE Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

KC Recent Form

MIN Recent Form

KC Season Quality

MIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

LAD Recent Form

ARI Recent Form

LAD Season Quality

ARI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Oakland Athletics @ Chicago Cubs

OAK Recent Form

CHC Recent Form

OAK Season Quality

CHC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros

PIT Recent Form

HOU Recent Form

PIT Season Quality

HOU Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies

SD Recent Form

PHI Recent Form

SD Season Quality

PHI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers