MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

June 3, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
BAL @ BOS3 - 43 - 5BOSBOSBOS wins 5-355%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHW @ MIN1 - 21 - 2MINMINMIN wins 2-155%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CLE @ NYY1 - 21 - 2NYYNYYNYY wins 2-157%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
COL @ LAA2 - 53 - 6LAALAALAA wins 6-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
DET @ TB2 - 32 - 3TBTBTB wins 3-254%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
KC @ CIN1 - 21 - 2CINCINCIN wins 2-153%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAD @ ARI7 - 57 - 3LADLADLAD wins 7-354%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIA @ WAS3 - 15 - 1MIAMIAMIA wins 5-155%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYM @ SEA2 - 32 - 4SEASEASEA wins 4-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
OAK @ CHC4 - 54 - 5CHCCHCCHC wins 5-456%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PIT @ HOU1 - 21 - 3HOUHOUHOU wins 3-153%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SD @ PHI1 - 31 - 3PHIPHIPHI wins 3-156%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SF @ MIL1 - 52 - 5MILMILMIL wins 5-266%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TEX @ STL3 - 22 - 1TEXTEXTEX wins 2-155%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TOR @ ATL2 - 42 - 5ATLATLATL wins 5-254%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

BAL 29-32 (4.57 RPG / 5.16 RA)
3 - 5
BOS 25-34 (3.95 RPG / 4.07 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 5-3 TARGET: BAL 3 - 4 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 55.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
BAL00000012037
BOS20020010x59

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.193
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-148.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.189
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-106.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record29-32
Win%0.475
Run Diff-36
RD/Game-0.590

BOS Season Quality

Record25-34
Win%0.424
Run Diff-7
RD/Game-0.119

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.394; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 254930243 0.261 9730.407 55000 01 0.000 0.262 0.410 0.357 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 2561095231 0.211 541370.266 44200 01 0.500 0.207 0.258 0.396 OK
Adley RutschmanC 162631167 0.265 311120.337 43211 10 0.667 0.241 0.324 0.421 OK
Pete Alonso1B 246943228 0.242 411500.324 43000 12 0.000 0.253 0.324 0.435 OK
Samuel BasalloDH 164597163 0.273 32890.332 44100 03 0.250 0.306 0.379 0.602 OK
Coby Mayo3B 152502107 0.213 21710.290 43111 11 0.333 0.249 0.318 0.464 OK
Tyler O'NeillRF 10631653 0.168 8300.285 44000 01 0.000 0.200 0.285 0.286 OK
Leody TaverasCF 163551152 0.276 9900.367 44111 00 0.250 0.214 0.299 0.336 OK
Blaze Alexander2B 132437120 0.275 4540.327 44000 00 0.000 0.284 0.328 0.424 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 33 39 0.206

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 223930201 0.216 381360.288 54110 11 0.250 0.226 0.285 0.417 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 201764215 0.281 18890.348 44000 02 0.000 0.250 0.293 0.405 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 233919259 0.282 261000.348 44110 00 0.250 0.259 0.326 0.405 OK
Willson Contreras1B 222819231 0.282 491570.378 43000 11 0.000 0.280 0.369 0.451 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 11437899 0.262 4290.348 44313 00 0.750 0.195 0.272 0.296 OK
Mickey GasperC 4917560 0.343 0100.383 44100 01 0.250 0.288 0.331 0.373 OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B 7121170 0.332 4350.417 43000 13 0.000 0.303 0.396 0.374 OK
Marcelo MayerSS 163546118 0.216 7460.277 43111 11 0.333 0.190 0.244 0.251 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 171589111 0.188 5740.265 44211 00 0.500 0.222 0.268 0.359 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37339 55 49 0.273

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris BassittStarter 1151.75.22 1.6256.336 4.264434101 4.2 4 4
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2723.00.78 0.69611.028 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 2624.25.21 1.32211.531 0.11000117 0.1 1 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 2516.42.74 0.7938.816 0.21110212 0.2 2 1
Tyler WellsMiddle Reliever 2125.74.55 1.3239.126 1.10001223 1.1 2 0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Payton TolleStarter 740.42.67 0.91610.246 6.02002790 6.0 7 0
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1918.20.49 0.87912.425 1.02110019 1.0 0 1
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 118.64.19 1.51214.714 1.03221224 1.0 2 2
Jovani MoránMiddle Reliever 1928.23.19 1.06411.235 1.00000020 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-3


Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins

CHW 32-28 (4.68 RPG / 4.6 RA)
1 - 2
MIN 28-33 (4.66 RPG / 4.95 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 2-1 TARGET: CHW 1 - 2 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 55.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CHW00000010017
MIN20000000x29

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.281
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.4
Run Diff-61.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.271
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-132.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record32-28
Win%0.533
Run Diff5
RD/Game0.083

MIN Season Quality

Record28-33
Win%0.459
Run Diff-18
RD/Game-0.295

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4899; margin adjustment: -0.2058; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chase Meidroth2B 232896236 0.263 24860.336 44000 00 0.000 0.250 0.321 0.386 OK
Randal GrichukRF 4010535 0.333 8410.369 44000 00 0.000 0.254 0.270 0.454 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 242897208 0.232 581480.363 44100 01 0.250 0.249 0.358 0.549 OK
Edgar QueroC 12943684 0.193 6620.266 43100 11 0.333 0.215 0.283 0.312 OK
Sam AntonacciLF 152538140 0.260 5590.370 44200 00 0.500 0.261 0.308 0.362 OK
Derek HillCF 7017436 0.207 6150.258 44100 00 0.250 0.145 0.201 0.239 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 175649163 0.251 161030.291 43000 12 0.000 0.259 0.309 0.474 OK
Luisangel AcuñaSS 11034358 0.169 0220.233 44000 01 0.000 0.175 0.228 0.214 OK
Jacob Gonzalez1B 131 0.333 000.333 44211 01 0.500 0.249 0.261 0.360 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 11 26 0.206

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 221946254 0.268 831350.329 43100 10 0.333 0.257 0.319 0.505 OK
Brooks Lee3B 211801201 0.251 261240.309 44111 02 0.250 0.236 0.285 0.428 OK
Kody Clemens1B 171623143 0.230 22700.316 44000 02 0.000 0.190 0.253 0.388 OK
Josh BellDH 220835186 0.223 211280.286 43111 10 0.333 0.248 0.296 0.379 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 159556152 0.273 9570.377 44000 00 0.000 0.200 0.298 0.329 OK
Austin MartinRF 177647187 0.289 10750.388 43300 10 1.000 0.219 0.306 0.315 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 213791192 0.243 5820.324 44000 00 0.000 0.262 0.327 0.359 OK
Tristan GraySS 9832273 0.227 14670.274 44300 00 0.750 0.237 0.273 0.413 OK
Alex JacksonC 11377 0.189 000.189 44000 02 0.000 0.220 0.231 0.362 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36339 22 36 0.273

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Erick FeddeStarter 1151.75.57 1.5285.934 4.07223386 4.0 3 2
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.00000218 1.0 2 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 2420.91.72 1.4839.923 2.02000017 2.0 0 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Taj BradleyStarter 1055.33.25 1.23010.665 5.24002696 5.2 6 0
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 2417.03.71 1.8249.017 0.21110014 0.2 0 1
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 139.70.93 1.03113.014 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 2322.94.72 1.6599.825 1.12000020 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

MIN wins 2-1


Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees

CLE 34-27 (4.08 RPG / 4.07 RA)
1 - 2
NYY 36-23 (5.17 RPG / 3.51 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 2-1 TARGET: CLE 1 - 2 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 57.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CLE00001000017
NYY00200000x29

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.362
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-123.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.296
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-68.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record34-27
Win%0.557
Run Diff1
RD/Game0.016

NYY Season Quality

Record36-23
Win%0.610
Run Diff98
RD/Game1.661

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.7238; margin adjustment: 0.724; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Travis Bazzana2B 115419125 0.298 12480.410 44200 00 0.500 0.277 0.361 0.444 OK
José Ramírez3B 253938220 0.235 361260.350 44311 01 0.750 0.217 0.333 0.371 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 217843218 0.259 321480.334 44000 00 0.000 0.273 0.337 0.411 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 170607129 0.213 16580.294 43100 12 0.333 0.215 0.290 0.317 OK
Angel MartínezRF 193743193 0.260 381190.299 44000 01 0.000 0.215 0.238 0.358 OK
Daniel SchneemannCF 162558135 0.242 17770.331 43000 11 0.000 0.228 0.322 0.350 OK
Steven KwanLF 231873184 0.211 4560.329 44100 01 0.250 0.212 0.321 0.269 OK
Patrick BaileyC 256911 0.159 370.224 44000 01 0.000 0.177 0.237 0.274 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 206691207 0.300 141040.377 44000 01 0.000 0.268 0.328 0.394 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 11 28 0.206

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ben Rice1B 215817246 0.301 701720.402 44200 00 0.500 0.337 0.430 0.683 OK
Paul GoldschmidtDH 111416117 0.281 24660.365 43211 10 0.667 0.282 0.358 0.509 OK
Cody BellingerLF 237868237 0.273 361610.380 43000 10 0.000 0.251 0.364 0.437 OK
Amed Rosario3B 9532897 0.296 27760.340 44200 00 0.500 0.314 0.355 0.655 OK
Trent GrishamCF 212778164 0.211 321330.327 44011 01 0.000 0.247 0.366 0.411 OK
Anthony VolpeSS 4414846 0.311 6360.452 43100 10 0.333 0.273 0.409 0.470 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 218826205 0.248 27920.329 44100 01 0.250 0.253 0.334 0.450 OK
José CaballeroRF 166585161 0.275 18630.328 44100 00 0.250 0.263 0.301 0.385 OK
Austin WellsC 15450297 0.193 17320.311 44000 02 0.000 0.191 0.305 0.286 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36339 22 34 0.273

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gavin WilliamsStarter 1275.43.10 1.10110.588 6.182234116 6.1 4 2
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2727.22.65 1.10313.942 1.0000003 1.0 0 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 1612.04.50 1.5839.012 0.01000014 0.0 0 0
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 1612.22.21 1.47514.019 0.20000011 0.2 0 0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gerrit ColeStarter 212.20.00 0.7388.912 5.06111485 5.0 4 1
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2422.64.78 1.68111.529 1.00001119 1.0 1 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 2817.93.02 1.78815.130 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2617.93.52 1.2855.511 0.21000113 0.2 1 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 2821.42.52 1.72912.229 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 2-1


Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels

COL 23-38 (4.26 RPG / 5.61 RA)
3 - 6
LAA 23-38 (4.31 RPG / 5.16 RA)
WINNER: LAA wins 6-3 TARGET: COL 2 - 5 LAA (LAA) Confidence: 55.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
COL00100002034
LAA30210000x68

COL Recent Form

Win%0.175
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-210.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.179
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-154.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

COL Season Quality

Record23-38
Win%0.377
Run Diff-82
RD/Game-1.344

LAA Season Quality

Record23-38
Win%0.377
Run Diff-52
RD/Game-0.852

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4918; margin adjustment: 0.2066; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyCF 141472122 0.258 10680.298 54000 01 0.000 0.279 0.325 0.488 OK
Willi Castro2B 174636165 0.259 8720.319 44111 01 0.250 0.252 0.316 0.342 OK
TJ RumfieldDH 216812228 0.281 301170.359 44110 02 0.250 0.258 0.358 0.410 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 214850208 0.245 56930.311 44112 01 0.250 0.228 0.290 0.483 OK
Troy JohnstonRF 186674221 0.328 10940.389 43000 11 0.000 0.287 0.338 0.404 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 206780172 0.221 10810.268 43000 01 0.000 0.218 0.268 0.385 OK
Sterlin ThompsonLF 308515 0.176 080.286 44100 01 0.250 0.144 0.228 0.237 OK
Kyle Karros3B 183565128 0.227 9540.336 42000 20 0.000 0.257 0.351 0.449 OK
Edouard Julien1B 152528117 0.222 10590.323 43000 12 0.000 0.193 0.318 0.273 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37314 33 410 0.129

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jorge SolerDH 223843186 0.221 361370.305 44310 00 0.750 0.239 0.306 0.392 OK
Mike TroutCF 254898226 0.252 631480.422 44111 00 0.250 0.274 0.437 0.535 OK
Wade MecklerLF 227322 0.301 5170.338 44010 01 0.000 0.245 0.283 0.410 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 126470116 0.247 13980.312 43111 10 0.333 0.258 0.325 0.409 OK
Jo AdellRF 238938228 0.243 331330.290 44213 00 0.500 0.230 0.251 0.382 OK
Donovan Walton3B 238824 0.273 010.312 44000 02 0.000 0.294 0.333 0.405 OK
Oswald PerazaSS 161557158 0.284 27630.354 33111 00 0.333 0.279 0.311 0.459 OK
Sebastián RiveroC 4212117 0.140 050.188 33000 02 0.000 0.133 0.185 0.179 OK
Adam Frazier2B 8523765 0.274 3230.356 33000 01 0.000 0.214 0.301 0.360 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33328 66 16 0.250

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael LorenzenStarter 1355.07.53 1.9827.043 4.16551178 4.1 1 5
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1730.71.47 1.0107.626 1.1111025 1.1 2 1
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 2422.87.11 2.01811.830 0.0000005 0.0 0 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 2415.44.68 1.94813.423 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 2818.54.86 1.6228.818 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Seth HalvorsenMiddle Reliever 1211.43.16 1.66710.313 0.11000118 0.1 1 0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walbert UrenaStarter 1043.42.49 1.4068.541 5.21114890 5.2 8 1
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 97.44.86 1.35112.210 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 2124.62.56 1.26010.629 1.10000018 1.1 0 0
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 2224.16.35 1.53512.032 1.02220117 1.0 1 2
José FerminMiddle Reliever 1612.26.64 2.04913.318 0.00000019 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

LAA wins 6-3


Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays

DET 24-38 (3.89 RPG / 4.37 RA)
2 - 3
TB 36-22 (4.67 RPG / 4.5 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 3-2 TARGET: DET 2 - 3 TB (TB) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
DET01000000126
TB00020010x34

DET Recent Form

Win%0.250
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-134.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TB Recent Form

Win%0.309
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-103.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

DET Season Quality

Record23-38
Win%0.377
Run Diff-38
RD/Game-0.623

TB Season Quality

Record36-21
Win%0.632
Run Diff18
RD/Game0.316

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.3205; margin adjustment: 0.5546; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gleyber Torres2B 145533136 0.255 10510.391 55100 02 0.200 0.249 0.377 0.321 OK
Matt VierlingCF 161586119 0.203 15820.277 55000 01 0.000 0.145 0.226 0.252 OK
Dillon DinglerC 208774190 0.245 511520.333 44100 01 0.250 0.244 0.317 0.534 OK
Riley GreeneLF 238868269 0.310 181140.406 44100 00 0.250 0.290 0.369 0.446 OK
Jahmai JonesDH 7616326 0.160 4150.259 43100 10 0.333 0.101 0.202 0.185 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 219762159 0.209 32810.314 43111 10 0.333 0.211 0.295 0.377 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 14049085 0.173 12350.231 43000 10 0.000 0.177 0.234 0.349 OK
Zach McKinstry3B 11937657 0.152 5360.232 42111 10 0.500 0.152 0.270 0.217 OK
Zack ShortSS 306710 0.149 010.383 44000 00 0.000 0.129 0.334 0.171 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38336 22 44 0.182

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 225933266 0.285 0440.321 44000 01 0.000 0.208 0.259 0.260 OK
Junior Caminero3B 236928249 0.268 581300.368 43000 11 0.000 0.297 0.417 0.528 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 231861249 0.289 441920.384 44100 00 0.250 0.297 0.403 0.522 OK
Yandy DíazDH 222871277 0.318 331560.397 33100 00 0.333 0.311 0.384 0.567 OK
Richie Palacios2B 118365100 0.274 4580.385 33112 01 0.333 0.194 0.313 0.272 OK
Ryan ViladeRF 8023780 0.338 8600.400 32110 10 0.500 0.251 0.332 0.449 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.CF 155513 0.236 6130.311 32011 01 0.000 0.223 0.307 0.303 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 7519649 0.250 1140.318 33000 01 0.000 0.218 0.281 0.275 OK
Ben WilliamsonSS 131439121 0.276 0570.358 33000 01 0.000 0.259 0.331 0.354 OK
TEAM TOTALS 30274 33 26 0.148

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Troy MeltonStarter 212.21.48 0.9843.04 5.03111484 5.0 4 1
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2625.21.43 1.5485.716 2.11110120 2.1 1 1
Will VestMiddle Reliever 1916.18.39 1.67711.220 0.20111120 0.2 1 1

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick MartinezStarter 1165.51.65 1.1305.641 6.04112496 6.0 4 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 2623.42.31 1.11111.229 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 2424.83.63 1.29011.632 1.11000018 1.1 0 0
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 2622.83.16 0.9657.519 0.21112019 0.2 0 1

Game Summary

TB wins 3-2


Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds

KC 23-37 (3.83 RPG / 4.7 RA)
1 - 2
CIN 30-29 (4.37 RPG / 5.03 RA)
WINNER: CIN wins 2-1 TARGET: KC 1 - 2 CIN (CIN) Confidence: 52.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
KC00000001016
CIN10100000x26

KC Recent Form

Win%0.125
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-172.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.273
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-165.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

KC Season Quality

Record23-37
Win%0.383
Run Diff-52
RD/Game-0.867

CIN Season Quality

Record30-29
Win%0.508
Run Diff-39
RD/Game-0.661

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3934; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Lane ThomasCF 11834779 0.228 7370.353 44100 02 0.250 0.232 0.333 0.366 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 247991286 0.289 401120.356 44000 00 0.000 0.250 0.318 0.423 OK
Salvador PerezC 225867192 0.221 421110.274 44000 00 0.000 0.204 0.246 0.343 OK
Starling MarteDH 5817554 0.309 080.362 44100 02 0.250 0.231 0.283 0.316 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 231869171 0.197 231080.295 43000 10 0.000 0.226 0.325 0.337 OK
Nick Loftin3B 7321445 0.210 0480.318 43000 11 0.000 0.198 0.289 0.307 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 183640142 0.222 19420.297 44100 01 0.250 0.182 0.251 0.327 OK
Tyler TolbertLF 791 0.111 000.111 44200 01 0.500 0.110 0.124 0.177 OK
Michael Massey2B 11736988 0.238 12490.256 33111 01 0.333 0.206 0.238 0.420 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 11 28 0.182

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dane MyersCF 9325464 0.252 15410.382 43000 11 0.000 0.202 0.327 0.342 OK
JJ BledayDH 116444125 0.282 341040.375 43100 11 0.333 0.288 0.381 0.633 OK
Sal Stewart1B 242905225 0.249 491600.358 44111 02 0.250 0.263 0.361 0.433 OK
Eugenio Suárez3B 122447105 0.235 11530.311 44100 00 0.250 0.211 0.298 0.355 OK
Spencer SteerLF 211778207 0.266 30870.341 44000 03 0.000 0.274 0.347 0.418 OK
Tyler StephensonC 161532103 0.194 17740.301 33000 01 0.000 0.218 0.322 0.358 OK
Blake DunnRF 5624174 0.307 5140.372 33100 01 0.333 0.207 0.264 0.290 OK
Edwin Arroyo2B 141 0.250 000.250 33100 01 0.333 0.226 0.236 0.326 OK
Matt McLainSS 216836177 0.212 22910.308 33111 01 0.333 0.204 0.294 0.322 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32306 22 211 0.200

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Stephen KolekStarter 530.33.56 0.9575.619 6.152219104 6.1 9 2
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 2220.45.29 1.7657.918 0.21000218 0.2 2 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 2320.32.22 1.13312.027 1.00001017 1.0 0 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chase BurnsStarter 1163.41.99 0.97810.272 6.02001691 6.0 6 0
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 2421.54.19 1.3959.222 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 2922.24.46 1.71210.927 1.03110019 1.0 0 1
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 98.25.49 1.2207.77 1.01001020 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

CIN wins 2-1


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

LAD 38-22 (5.25 RPG / 3.15 RA)
7 - 3
ARI 32-27 (4.54 RPG / 4.36 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 7-3 TARGET: LAD 7 - 5 ARI (LAD) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
12345678910RH
LAD0000020014712
ARI100100010038

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.281
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-69.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.351
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-72.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAD Season Quality

Record38-22
Win%0.633
Run Diff126
RD/Game2.100

ARI Season Quality

Record32-27
Win%0.542
Run Diff11
RD/Game0.186

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.05; margin adjustment: -0.861; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 241931261 0.280 411520.407 55311 01 0.600 0.318 0.410 0.562 OK
Andy PagesCF 230878275 0.313 582210.362 55000 01 0.000 0.293 0.338 0.562 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 231870234 0.269 311230.368 55112 02 0.200 0.272 0.352 0.500 OK
Mookie BettsSS 9540674 0.182 29720.228 55212 02 0.400 0.211 0.257 0.389 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 231890225 0.253 211200.346 55210 00 0.400 0.233 0.318 0.375 OK
Max Muncy3B 195692181 0.262 54820.362 54110 11 0.250 0.243 0.326 0.520 OK
Ryan WardLF 62610 0.385 050.385 55212 00 0.400 0.240 0.253 0.323 OK
Dalton RushingC 9432090 0.281 31680.363 54000 11 0.000 0.242 0.304 0.448 OK
Alex Freeland2B 11938393 0.243 9350.321 44110 00 0.250 0.223 0.302 0.387 OK
TEAM TOTALS 444212 77 28 0.286

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 227963266 0.276 411490.322 55111 01 0.200 0.233 0.291 0.411 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 226837249 0.297 321280.397 55210 01 0.400 0.244 0.329 0.458 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 127459120 0.261 13740.324 54000 11 0.000 0.260 0.329 0.399 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 197682189 0.277 301160.360 55100 03 0.200 0.259 0.339 0.454 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtLF 7124867 0.270 0280.339 43100 11 0.333 0.177 0.260 0.287 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 201814251 0.308 321550.334 43112 00 0.333 0.248 0.270 0.383 OK
Jose FernandezSS 155556149 0.268 12590.304 44100 00 0.250 0.218 0.258 0.329 OK
Jorge BarrosaCF 9129056 0.193 2240.271 44000 02 0.000 0.175 0.255 0.330 OK
Tommy TroyDH 175320 0.377 110.459 44100 00 0.250 0.258 0.345 0.478 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40378 33 29 0.216

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shohei OhtaniStarter 23139.00.52 0.7778.7135 6.061119149 6.0 9 1
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 2623.52.30 0.72310.728 1.2111006 1.2 0 1
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 1818.01.00 0.77810.521 1.0111105 1.0 0 1
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 2616.62.71 1.14515.228 1.0000003 1.0 0 0
Jonathan HernándezReliever 46.01.50 0.3337.55 0.1000001 0.1 0 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zac GallenStarter 1257.75.30 1.5086.642 5.04221594 5.0 5 2
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 2.00000025 2.0 0 0
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Taylor ClarkeMiddle Reliever 10.1360.00 30.0000.00 1.03110122 1.0 1 1
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.04441129 1.0 1 4

Game Summary

LAD wins 7-3 (Extra Innings - 10)


Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

MIA 28-34 (4.26 RPG / 4.6 RA)
5 - 1
WAS 31-31 (5.32 RPG / 5.44 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 5-1 TARGET: MIA 3 - 1 WAS (MIA) Confidence: 55.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIA00001031054
WAS00000001015

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.316
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-145.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.283
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-143.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIA Season Quality

Record28-34
Win%0.452
Run Diff-21
RD/Game-0.339

WAS Season Quality

Record31-31
Win%0.500
Run Diff-7
RD/Game-0.113

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2984; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Heriberto HernándezDH 10233767 0.199 5580.266 44000 01 0.000 0.242 0.292 0.400 OK
Otto LopezSS 236949329 0.347 191070.377 44111 00 0.250 0.328 0.356 0.455 OK
Kyle StowersLF 143540113 0.209 13440.300 44000 03 0.000 0.229 0.293 0.395 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 242919295 0.321 26850.407 43010 10 0.000 0.318 0.414 0.488 OK
Leo Jiménez3B 5216442 0.256 040.323 43000 12 0.000 0.177 0.251 0.233 OK
Liam Hicks1B 207742208 0.280 481990.356 42111 20 0.500 0.259 0.341 0.455 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 241891172 0.193 13640.326 44000 03 0.000 0.192 0.294 0.303 OK
Owen CaissieRF 152478112 0.234 12970.287 44113 01 0.250 0.255 0.302 0.440 OK
Joe MackC 6421044 0.210 0240.256 33110 01 0.333 0.200 0.242 0.270 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 55 411 0.129

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodLF 2701041301 0.289 761940.431 44211 01 0.500 0.271 0.403 0.542 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 177659184 0.279 211220.300 44000 00 0.000 0.212 0.240 0.392 OK
Curtis Mead3B 148491127 0.259 33900.377 43000 11 0.000 0.221 0.328 0.439 OK
CJ AbramsSS 242919275 0.299 482060.389 43000 10 0.000 0.303 0.377 0.513 OK
Daylen LileDH 2501030261 0.253 321250.310 44000 04 0.000 0.215 0.266 0.342 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 3313833 0.239 460.266 44100 01 0.250 0.233 0.256 0.344 OK
Jorbit Vivas2B 12236293 0.257 4210.344 44000 02 0.000 0.229 0.313 0.340 OK
Drew MillasC 10033560 0.179 5290.261 43200 10 0.667 0.188 0.251 0.292 OK
Jacob YoungCF 195735172 0.234 25930.287 43000 00 0.000 0.210 0.261 0.350 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 11 39 0.156

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max MeyerStarter 1265.53.02 1.11510.274 5.21001691 5.2 6 0
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 1714.47.50 1.38913.822 1.00111117 1.0 1 1
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 2419.74.11 1.11711.425 1.02001112 1.0 1 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 2119.34.20 1.29510.723 1.12000123 1.1 1 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew AlvarezStarter 515.24.14 1.31610.117 4.12111565 4.1 5 1
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 2317.85.06 1.91010.120 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 1514.52.48 1.3109.315 1.11332228 1.1 2 3
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 1813.44.03 2.23910.115 0.21110116 0.2 1 1
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1734.22.89 1.0828.231 1.10001225 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 5-1


New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners

NYM 26-34 (4.02 RPG / 4.25 RA)
2 - 4
SEA 32-29 (4.23 RPG / 3.72 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 4-2 TARGET: NYM 2 - 3 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
NYM01000000125
SEA00201010x48

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.377
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-108.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-91.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record26-34
Win%0.433
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.233

SEA Season Quality

Record32-29
Win%0.525
Run Diff31
RD/Game0.508

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8784; margin adjustment: 0.3689; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 204780205 0.263 12970.331 44000 01 0.000 0.247 0.304 0.375 OK
Bo BichetteSS 2461018230 0.226 241320.274 44100 01 0.250 0.180 0.253 0.258 OK
Juan SotoLF 168635192 0.302 461080.399 43000 11 0.000 0.280 0.371 0.547 OK
Jared YoungDH 298428 0.333 260.378 44100 00 0.250 0.183 0.243 0.358 OK
Mark Vientos1B 181673153 0.227 25980.267 44100 01 0.250 0.161 0.191 0.305 OK
Brett Baty3B 184659161 0.244 14900.310 43111 10 0.333 0.200 0.257 0.312 OK
Marcus Semien2B 224824194 0.235 21940.284 43111 00 0.333 0.244 0.308 0.427 OK
A.J. EwingCF 6422056 0.255 4220.367 44000 00 0.000 0.202 0.304 0.292 OK
Hayden SengerC 12273 0.111 150.111 33000 00 0.000 0.208 0.219 0.365 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 22 24 0.156

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 208772176 0.228 35940.351 43112 10 0.333 0.258 0.356 0.442 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 2511028265 0.258 481310.316 43311 10 1.000 0.255 0.297 0.503 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 243899274 0.305 241100.389 43011 03 0.000 0.264 0.322 0.407 OK
Luke RaleyRF 156536160 0.299 471280.354 44000 02 0.000 0.291 0.326 0.614 OK
Cole Young2B 228806197 0.244 141100.323 43100 10 0.333 0.279 0.346 0.413 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 129380100 0.263 23850.329 44000 02 0.000 0.266 0.326 0.598 OK
Patrick Wisdom1B 11332 0.061 040.061 43000 11 0.000 0.110 0.123 0.194 OK
Jhonny PeredaC 3210216 0.157 110.265 44000 00 0.000 0.204 0.296 0.272 OK
Colt Emerson3B 3711834 0.288 6260.373 44310 00 0.750 0.268 0.335 0.592 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36318 44 48 0.258

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Freddy PeraltaStarter 1263.93.66 1.3469.668 5.263324108 5.2 4 3
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 2218.64.84 1.45215.031 1.12112331 1.1 3 1
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 2423.93.01 1.1309.425 1.00000118 1.0 1 0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
George KirbyStarter 1271.93.88 1.2527.459 6.04112396 6.0 3 1
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 2421.55.02 1.34914.735 1.0000003 1.0 0 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 1713.60.66 0.8828.613 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 2823.41.92 1.3258.823 1.01110014 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

SEA wins 4-2


Oakland Athletics @ Chicago Cubs

OAK 28-31 (4.27 RPG / 4.85 RA)
4 - 5
CHC 32-28 (4.73 RPG / 4.42 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 5-4 TARGET: OAK 4 - 5 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 55.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
OAK00020002046
CHC10010030x57

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.250
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-145.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.102
Avg Runs0.7
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-167.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record28-31
Win%0.475
Run Diff-34
RD/Game-0.576

CHC Season Quality

Record32-28
Win%0.533
Run Diff19
RD/Game0.317

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9811; margin adjustment: 0.4121; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CortesRF 152507178 0.351 24750.434 44112 01 0.250 0.246 0.348 0.400 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 251912261 0.286 401750.439 43110 10 0.333 0.274 0.406 0.504 OK
Shea LangeliersC 231958293 0.306 601320.376 44112 01 0.250 0.265 0.327 0.483 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 225868189 0.218 271100.307 44000 02 0.000 0.282 0.387 0.537 OK
Brent RookerDH 162621125 0.201 371280.292 44000 02 0.000 0.196 0.281 0.376 OK
Henry BolteCF 4817152 0.304 0160.363 44000 04 0.000 0.268 0.324 0.344 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 190666178 0.267 6580.336 44110 01 0.250 0.215 0.278 0.296 OK
Zack Gelof3B 137511131 0.256 26710.308 33100 01 0.333 0.229 0.270 0.378 OK
Darell HernaizSS 11436098 0.272 4290.350 33100 01 0.333 0.204 0.284 0.265 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34336 44 113 0.182

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 2571084279 0.257 211620.342 44213 01 0.500 0.248 0.321 0.339 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 236868211 0.243 271090.337 44000 02 0.000 0.267 0.338 0.432 OK
Alex Bregman3B 2571062278 0.262 18820.350 43110 10 0.333 0.255 0.326 0.366 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 184714183 0.256 32880.348 43000 11 0.000 0.270 0.337 0.402 OK
Ian HappLF 241945227 0.240 641510.360 44212 00 0.500 0.281 0.371 0.574 OK
Carson KellyC 151556174 0.313 6630.391 44000 01 0.000 0.295 0.351 0.379 OK
Michael Busch1B 250923220 0.238 301570.382 42010 21 0.000 0.256 0.390 0.395 OK
Kevin AlcántaraDH 451 0.200 000.200 44210 02 0.500 0.116 0.131 0.188 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 216749150 0.200 331170.307 43000 13 0.000 0.187 0.315 0.319 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36317 55 511 0.226

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jeffrey SpringsStarter 1265.44.13 1.2087.857 5.242239107 5.2 9 2
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 3021.63.33 2.03712.931 1.10000021 1.1 0 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 2622.16.11 1.62910.225 0.03331016 0.0 0 3
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 2622.61.99 0.9738.822 1.00001217 1.0 2 0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Colin ReaStarter 1257.04.89 1.4217.749 5.13221696 5.1 6 2
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 1310.52.57 1.61910.312 1.00000315 1.0 3 0
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 1410.82.50 1.38912.515 1.13220326 1.1 3 2
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 2522.12.85 1.49312.631 1.10000118 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-4


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros

PIT 32-28 (5.02 RPG / 4.5 RA)
1 - 3
HOU 27-34 (4.44 RPG / 4.98 RA)
WINNER: HOU wins 3-1 TARGET: PIT 1 - 2 HOU (HOU) Confidence: 53.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
PIT00000001013
HOU03000000x36

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.278
Avg Runs1.6
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-99.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.397
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-156.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record32-28
Win%0.533
Run Diff31
RD/Game0.517

HOU Season Quality

Record27-34
Win%0.443
Run Diff-33
RD/Game-0.541

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1937; margin adjustment: -0.5014; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Spencer HorwitzDH 192641186 0.290 221060.405 42000 21 0.000 0.274 0.397 0.459 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 223883239 0.271 651790.362 44111 00 0.250 0.236 0.316 0.464 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 242880247 0.281 231550.406 43000 10 0.000 0.325 0.455 0.609 OK
Ryan O'Hearn1B 182708207 0.292 301310.368 44000 01 0.000 0.268 0.350 0.457 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 201807248 0.307 1980.360 44000 02 0.000 0.288 0.332 0.389 OK
Oneil CruzCF 2471050280 0.267 541750.333 44000 02 0.000 0.231 0.324 0.470 OK
Endy RodríguezC 237119 0.268 080.429 42000 21 0.000 0.234 0.399 0.335 OK
Jake MangumRF 10537699 0.263 1140.324 44200 01 0.500 0.257 0.310 0.344 OK
Jared TrioloSS 7727461 0.223 0100.271 33000 01 0.000 0.212 0.244 0.260 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35303 11 59 0.100

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 9037495 0.254 10280.307 44112 01 0.250 0.278 0.306 0.476 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 248918302 0.329 981840.445 43110 11 0.333 0.276 0.394 0.580 OK
Christian Walker1B 233885243 0.275 671840.349 44000 01 0.000 0.225 0.295 0.455 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 213795191 0.240 261030.336 44100 00 0.250 0.231 0.311 0.440 OK
Taylor TrammellLF 4616055 0.344 0240.390 44100 01 0.250 0.226 0.270 0.371 OK
Cam SmithRF 216756166 0.220 20880.312 33111 00 0.333 0.246 0.316 0.393 OK
Jake MeyersCF 6825858 0.225 9250.294 32100 11 0.500 0.220 0.282 0.339 OK
Brice Matthews2B 153537112 0.209 16510.261 33000 00 0.000 0.188 0.248 0.298 OK
Christian VázquezC 120397107 0.270 16660.327 33000 01 0.000 0.225 0.276 0.353 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32306 33 26 0.200

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Paul SkenesStarter 1264.42.93 0.87010.575 6.053326104 6.0 6 3
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2726.52.04 0.79210.932 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 2218.83.83 1.43614.430 1.01000016 1.0 0 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer ArrighettiStarter 846.31.36 1.1458.443 5.22002595 5.2 5 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 2221.63.33 1.5287.919 1.00000021 1.0 0 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 2116.07.88 2.31212.923 1.01112111 1.0 1 1
Nate PearsonMiddle Reliever 43.20.00 1.2505.62 1.10001321 1.1 3 0

Game Summary

HOU wins 3-1


San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies

SD 32-27 (3.88 RPG / 4.0 RA)
1 - 3
PHI 31-29 (3.88 RPG / 4.3 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 3-1 TARGET: SD 1 - 3 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 55.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SD00001000014
PHI30000000x36

SD Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-128.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.161
Avg Runs0.6
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-153.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SD Season Quality

Record32-26
Win%0.552
Run Diff-6
RD/Game-0.103

PHI Season Quality

Record30-29
Win%0.508
Run Diff-26
RD/Game-0.441

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4021; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 230886233 0.263 1700.340 44100 01 0.250 0.280 0.340 0.362 OK
Gavin Sheets1B 172584146 0.250 32850.332 44000 01 0.000 0.220 0.305 0.394 OK
Manny Machado3B 220795139 0.175 401220.268 43000 01 0.000 0.180 0.266 0.364 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 167635177 0.279 19710.306 44100 01 0.250 0.218 0.246 0.374 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 219855176 0.206 18890.281 43111 01 0.333 0.243 0.310 0.396 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 212786198 0.252 301040.321 44000 02 0.000 0.237 0.308 0.369 OK
Sung-Mun Song2B 266513 0.200 0140.316 33100 02 0.333 0.134 0.260 0.226 OK
Freddy FerminC 10834448 0.140 0130.244 33000 01 0.000 0.125 0.222 0.188 OK
Ty France1B 102351103 0.293 20610.326 33000 02 0.000 0.250 0.281 0.469 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 11 012 0.129

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 242944232 0.246 981850.358 43000 11 0.000 0.246 0.331 0.536 OK
Trea TurnerSS 2431046242 0.231 34890.278 44000 01 0.000 0.222 0.261 0.396 OK
Bryce Harper1B 233847233 0.275 571480.382 44100 02 0.250 0.225 0.343 0.432 OK
Brandon MarshLF 195726244 0.336 231110.368 44111 03 0.250 0.314 0.353 0.495 OK
Alec Bohm3B 212797172 0.216 181000.276 43111 11 0.333 0.215 0.268 0.337 OK
Bryson Stott2B 188677148 0.219 21990.269 33311 00 1.000 0.187 0.229 0.341 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 176602143 0.238 8440.302 33000 01 0.000 0.227 0.276 0.349 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 216770151 0.196 12680.283 33000 01 0.000 0.153 0.222 0.239 OK
Garrett StubbsC 215814 0.241 030.338 33000 00 0.000 0.204 0.252 0.262 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32306 33 210 0.200

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walker BuehlerStarter 1149.85.06 1.3657.843 5.05331583 5.0 5 3
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 2423.60.76 0.89018.749 1.11000222 1.1 2 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 2218.60.97 1.0755.311 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 2725.14.66 1.27512.535 0.20000212 0.2 2 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cristopher SánchezStarter 1278.41.49 1.13510.995 6.2200011102 6.2 11 0
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 1817.21.57 0.98813.626 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 2523.53.83 1.19110.728 0.21000017 0.2 0 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 2514.97.25 2.34915.726 0.21110116 0.2 1 1

Game Summary

PHI wins 3-1


San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers

SF 23-37 (3.9 RPG / 4.93 RA)
2 - 5
MIL 36-21 (4.98 RPG / 3.44 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 5-2 TARGET: SF 1 - 5 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 65.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SF00010001025
MIL10030001x57

SF Recent Form

Win%0.182
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-151.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.392
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-60.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SF Season Quality

Record23-37
Win%0.383
Run Diff-62
RD/Game-1.033

MIL Season Quality

Record36-21
Win%0.632
Run Diff88
RD/Game1.544

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.9496; margin adjustment: 1.2388; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Casey SchmittLF 198783240 0.307 511340.350 54000 00 0.000 0.248 0.270 0.461 OK
Rafael Devers1B 232902230 0.255 291250.303 44000 00 0.000 0.238 0.300 0.411 OK
Luis Arraez2B 229930313 0.337 101000.380 44211 01 0.500 0.304 0.350 0.393 OK
Willy AdamesSS 235987250 0.253 31910.286 44111 00 0.250 0.232 0.264 0.433 OK
Matt Chapman3B 231887200 0.225 6810.316 43100 11 0.333 0.211 0.288 0.344 OK
Buddy KennedyDH 110 0.000 000.000 44100 01 0.250 0.107 0.122 0.185
Daniel SusacC 5519364 0.332 0380.390 42000 21 0.000 0.178 0.242 0.298 OK
Victor BericotoRF 6102 0.200 000.200 43000 11 0.000 0.113 0.128 0.179 OK
Jonah CoxCF 221 0.500 000.500 44000 02 0.000 0.114 0.129 0.874 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37325 22 47 0.156

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Christian YelichDH 101392114 0.291 15610.353 44000 00 0.000 0.278 0.345 0.440 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 92399112 0.281 5290.328 44111 00 0.250 0.262 0.319 0.419 OK
Brice Turang2B 230858246 0.287 341520.408 44000 00 0.000 0.248 0.387 0.436 OK
William ContrerasC 220890266 0.299 171560.369 43110 10 0.333 0.266 0.327 0.373 OK
Jake Bauers1B 183689197 0.286 351300.359 43100 10 0.333 0.256 0.351 0.471 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 168584141 0.241 71060.353 43100 11 0.333 0.241 0.346 0.401 OK
Sal FrelickRF 188683152 0.223 14670.290 43212 01 0.667 0.226 0.285 0.333 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 168609133 0.218 0620.288 43011 00 0.000 0.196 0.272 0.263 OK
David HamiltonSS 145465111 0.239 1320.330 44111 03 0.250 0.255 0.333 0.359 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36317 55 35 0.226

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan WebbStarter 952.14.84 1.4018.147 5.254423106 5.2 3 4
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 2422.54.40 1.33311.629 1.11000225 1.1 2 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 2524.52.57 0.9398.122 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 1814.05.14 1.64315.424 0.01111019 0.0 0 1

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob MisiorowskiStarter 1270.31.66 0.79713.8108 6.241117100 6.2 7 1
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 2319.74.11 1.26910.523 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 2121.02.57 0.95211.627 1.01111020 1.0 0 1
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 2632.52.22 1.41514.151 0.10001019 0.1 0 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-2


Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals

TEX 29-31 (3.98 RPG / 3.85 RA)
2 - 1
STL 31-27 (4.28 RPG / 4.47 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 2-1 TARGET: TEX 3 - 2 STL (TEX) Confidence: 55.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
TEX00000020027
STL00000001013

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.310
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-110.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.109
Avg Runs0.7
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-123.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TEX Season Quality

Record29-31
Win%0.483
Run Diff8
RD/Game0.133

STL Season Quality

Record31-27
Win%0.534
Run Diff-11
RD/Game-0.190

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2463; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 161481125 0.260 25640.365 44211 01 0.500 0.188 0.307 0.391 OK
Josh Jung3B 211819250 0.305 27950.363 44100 00 0.250 0.303 0.358 0.522 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 239948249 0.263 29920.345 44000 00 0.000 0.228 0.284 0.386 OK
Jake Burger1B 219846201 0.238 381480.289 44000 02 0.000 0.244 0.295 0.405 OK
Ezequiel DuranSS 168588180 0.306 141100.360 44200 01 0.500 0.261 0.318 0.422 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 9225962 0.239 0230.377 44200 01 0.500 0.229 0.309 0.285 OK
Evan CarterCF 195631116 0.184 25690.300 43000 12 0.000 0.136 0.239 0.272 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 9331760 0.189 11340.276 43011 00 0.000 0.143 0.235 0.241 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 11367 0.194 130.275 33000 00 0.000 0.151 0.218 0.237 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35337 22 17 0.212

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 247968230 0.238 421170.359 44000 02 0.000 0.253 0.333 0.390 OK
Iván HerreraDH 247938243 0.259 281160.385 42000 21 0.000 0.241 0.336 0.394 OK
Alec Burleson1B 232936261 0.279 311590.344 44000 00 0.000 0.244 0.304 0.374 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 228890282 0.317 691990.383 44111 01 0.250 0.257 0.319 0.457 OK
Bryan TorresLF 238823 0.261 040.337 44100 00 0.250 0.241 0.307 0.388 OK
Masyn WinnSS 203782180 0.230 6910.297 43000 10 0.000 0.230 0.285 0.349 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 202735168 0.229 241090.304 42000 11 0.000 0.183 0.260 0.272 OK
Jimmy CrooksC 251 0.200 000.200 44100 01 0.250 0.237 0.250 0.350 OK
Victor Scott IICF 15947281 0.172 9270.246 43000 10 0.000 0.164 0.247 0.249 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36303 11 56 0.100

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
MacKenzie GoreStarter 1259.74.07 1.2239.865 5.12003588 5.1 5 0
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 2125.61.05 0.4699.126 1.11001024 1.1 0 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 2224.51.84 0.8165.916 1.10111121 1.1 1 1
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 2721.83.72 1.6518.721 1.00000014 1.0 0 0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andre PallanteStarter 1157.34.24 1.3617.246 5.14220691 5.1 6 2
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2523.73.42 1.05510.327 1.23001020 1.2 0 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2622.03.27 1.40910.225 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 2520.43.53 1.3248.820 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 2-1


Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves

TOR 29-32 (4.05 RPG / 4.18 RA)
2 - 5
ATL 41-20 (5.25 RPG / 3.44 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 5-2 TARGET: TOR 2 - 4 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 54.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
TOR10000001027
ATL31001000x57

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.241
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-115.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.264
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-81.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TOR Season Quality

Record29-32
Win%0.475
Run Diff-8
RD/Game-0.131

ATL Season Quality

Record41-20
Win%0.672
Run Diff110
RD/Game1.803

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.2295; margin adjustment: 0.9364; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 164669143 0.214 23650.291 55100 02 0.200 0.207 0.268 0.353 OK
Nathan LukesLF 7224579 0.322 0340.366 55000 01 0.000 0.284 0.312 0.394 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 228838247 0.295 12990.393 43111 11 0.333 0.272 0.362 0.362 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 215813221 0.272 24740.349 43000 12 0.000 0.225 0.299 0.379 OK
Ernie Clement2B 224897272 0.303 22900.325 44200 00 0.500 0.275 0.296 0.429 OK
Yohendrick PinangoRF 8228286 0.305 9470.336 44111 01 0.250 0.239 0.269 0.413 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 226844185 0.219 491320.310 43000 10 0.000 0.192 0.276 0.399 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 197707161 0.228 251110.262 44200 01 0.500 0.200 0.231 0.387 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 10833890 0.266 17440.364 43000 12 0.000 0.215 0.333 0.350 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 22 410 0.206

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 193734174 0.237 19800.361 44000 00 0.000 0.276 0.420 0.632 OK
Michael Harris IICF 201787236 0.300 531360.324 43000 10 0.000 0.311 0.344 0.546 OK
Matt Olson1B 250978264 0.270 692000.354 43110 11 0.333 0.270 0.344 0.538 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 246966268 0.277 391300.336 44112 02 0.250 0.296 0.343 0.500 OK
Dominic SmithDH 120404138 0.342 16810.371 44211 00 0.500 0.299 0.338 0.432 OK
Austin Riley3B 237900197 0.219 311300.292 43000 11 0.000 0.182 0.244 0.307 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 155501112 0.224 9450.305 44212 01 0.500 0.290 0.365 0.429 OK
Jorge MateoSS 7624791 0.368 8290.418 43000 12 0.000 0.259 0.320 0.444 OK
Sandy LeónC 21474 0.085 000.085 33110 01 0.333 0.169 0.180 0.246 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35317 55 48 0.226

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Patrick CorbinStarter 1047.73.77 1.4056.836 5.05444394 5.0 3 4
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 2828.20.32 1.13513.442 1.1211026 1.1 2 1
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 2823.17.01 1.94817.545 0.00000019 0.0 0 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 2824.12.61 1.2456.016 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Braydon FisherMiddle Reliever 3028.02.89 1.10710.633 0.20000116 0.2 1 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Grant HolmesStarter 1155.64.05 1.3678.653 5.041145103 5.0 5 1
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1717.21.05 0.87211.021 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 2524.40.74 0.8618.122 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 2825.11.43 0.67712.234 1.02110220 1.0 2 1
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 2823.83.40 1.26110.628 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-2