MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

June 3, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
BAL @ BOS3 - 43 - 5BOSBOSBOS wins 5-355%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHW @ MIN2 - 32 - 3MINMINMIN wins 3-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CLE @ NYY1 - 21 - 2NYYNYYNYY wins 2-158%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
COL @ LAA2 - 52 - 4LAALAALAA wins 4-255%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
DET @ TB1 - 20 - 3TBTBTB wins 3-054%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
KC @ CIN1 - 21 - 3CINCINCIN wins 3-153%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAD @ ARI5 - 34 - 3LADLADLAD wins 4-355%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIA @ WAS3 - 15 - 1MIAMIAMIA wins 5-155%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYM @ SEA2 - 31 - 5SEASEASEA wins 5-153%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
OAK @ CHC3 - 43 - 5CHCCHCCHC wins 5-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PIT @ HOU1 - 21 - 2HOUHOUHOU wins 2-153%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SD @ PHI1 - 22 - 3PHIPHIPHI wins 3-255%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SF @ MIL2 - 53 - 4MILMILMIL wins 4-362%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TEX @ STL3 - 12 - 1TEXTEXTEX wins 2-154%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TOR @ ATL2 - 42 - 6ATLATLATL wins 6-254%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

BAL 29-32 (4.57 RPG / 5.16 RA)
3 - 5
BOS 25-34 (3.95 RPG / 4.07 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 5-3 TARGET: BAL 3 - 4 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 54.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
12345678910RH
BAL000000300034
BOS2001000002512

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.172
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-146.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.208
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-109.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BAL Season Quality

Record29-32
Win%0.475
Run Diff-36
RD/Game-0.590

BOS Season Quality

Record25-34
Win%0.424
Run Diff-7
RD/Game-0.119

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.394; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 255934243 0.260 9730.406 44000 02 0.000 0.239 0.391 0.328 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 2571099232 0.211 541370.266 44000 01 0.000 0.212 0.262 0.390 OK
Adley RutschmanC 163634168 0.265 311120.338 44210 00 0.500 0.235 0.328 0.403 OK
Pete Alonso1B 247947230 0.243 421520.324 44000 02 0.000 0.267 0.335 0.478 OK
Coby Mayo3B 153506108 0.213 22720.290 44111 01 0.250 0.242 0.305 0.490 OK
Samuel BasalloDH 165601164 0.273 32890.332 44112 01 0.250 0.304 0.375 0.550 OK
Tyler O'NeillRF 10731854 0.170 8300.286 43000 11 0.000 0.208 0.290 0.285 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 299321 0.226 5190.297 44000 01 0.000 0.237 0.318 0.374 OK
Blaze AlexanderCF 133440121 0.275 4550.326 33000 01 0.000 0.278 0.323 0.391 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35344 33 110 0.118

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 224934202 0.216 381360.288 65212 10 0.400 0.226 0.284 0.430 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 202768217 0.283 18890.349 66100 02 0.167 0.255 0.298 0.398 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 234922259 0.281 261010.347 65210 11 0.400 0.249 0.316 0.382 OK
Willson Contreras1B 223822231 0.281 491570.377 54000 11 0.000 0.266 0.358 0.428 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 11538299 0.259 4290.345 55212 00 0.400 0.184 0.260 0.279 OK
Mickey GasperC 5017861 0.343 0100.385 55100 00 0.200 0.288 0.335 0.367 OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B 7221470 0.327 4350.412 54110 10 0.250 0.284 0.371 0.346 OK
Marcelo MayerSS 164548118 0.215 7470.276 54100 11 0.250 0.173 0.229 0.230 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 172592112 0.189 5740.266 54211 11 0.500 0.219 0.265 0.359 OK
TEAM TOTALS 484212 55 66 0.286

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris BassittStarter 1151.75.22 1.6256.336 4.26333289 4.2 2 3
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2824.00.75 0.66711.230 1.11001024 1.1 0 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 2624.25.21 1.32211.531 1.02000019 1.0 0 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 2516.42.74 0.7938.816 1.02001223 1.0 2 0
Tyler WellsMiddle Reliever 2125.74.55 1.3239.126 1.10000022 1.1 0 0
Albert SuárezReliever 820.22.67 1.2384.510 0.21221230 0.2 2 2

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Payton TolleStarter 740.42.67 0.91610.246 6.01001784 6.0 7 0
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1918.20.49 0.87912.425 1.23330023 1.2 0 3
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 118.64.19 1.51214.714 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Jovani MoránMiddle Reliever 1928.23.19 1.06411.235 1.10000220 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 10)


Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins

CHW 33-29 (4.73 RPG / 4.55 RA)
2 - 3
MIN 29-34 (4.6 RPG / 4.98 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 3-2 TARGET: CHW 2 - 3 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 52.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CHW10000100026
MIN00300000x39

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.276
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.3
Run Diff-61.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.267
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-133.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record32-29
Win%0.525
Run Diff3
RD/Game0.049

MIN Season Quality

Record29-33
Win%0.468
Run Diff-16
RD/Game-0.258

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3925; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 153542140 0.258 5590.368 44100 02 0.250 0.249 0.294 0.343 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 243901209 0.232 581500.363 44000 00 0.000 0.254 0.356 0.543 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 176653163 0.250 161030.289 43000 13 0.000 0.252 0.301 0.462 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 234880208 0.236 591540.332 43000 11 0.000 0.237 0.299 0.506 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 233900238 0.264 24870.338 43111 10 0.333 0.270 0.339 0.399 OK
Jacob Gonzalez1B 3102 0.200 000.273 44111 01 0.250 0.240 0.306 0.330 OK
Tristan PetersCF 153466136 0.292 8500.354 44200 02 0.500 0.277 0.328 0.409 OK
Drew RomoC 6421038 0.181 18370.304 44000 01 0.000 0.137 0.237 0.336 OK
Rikuu NishidaRF 134110 0.244 020.244 44100 00 0.250 0.219 0.230 0.287 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 22 310 0.182

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 222950255 0.268 831350.329 54100 10 0.250 0.254 0.311 0.481 OK
Brooks Lee3B 212804202 0.251 261250.308 44310 01 0.750 0.249 0.297 0.444 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 160558153 0.274 9570.378 43000 10 0.000 0.213 0.316 0.352 OK
Josh BellDH 221837187 0.223 211280.288 44000 00 0.000 0.259 0.312 0.382 OK
Austin MartinRF 178650187 0.288 10750.387 44112 01 0.250 0.216 0.307 0.304 OK
Victor CaratiniC 15251094 0.184 5740.282 43111 10 0.333 0.213 0.287 0.269 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 214795194 0.244 5840.324 44100 01 0.250 0.273 0.336 0.358 OK
Tristan GraySS 9932675 0.230 14690.277 44100 01 0.250 0.244 0.279 0.407 OK
Orlando Arcia1B 227630 0.395 040.425 43100 11 0.333 0.188 0.240 0.273 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37339 33 45 0.273

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Erick FeddeStarter 1151.75.57 1.5285.934 4.07332386 4.0 3 3
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 1.01001120 1.0 1 0
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 2420.91.72 1.4839.923 2.01001130 2.0 1 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Taj BradleyStarter 1055.33.25 1.23010.665 5.23112699 5.2 6 1
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 2417.03.71 1.8249.017 0.21111215 0.2 2 1
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 1410.80.83 0.92613.316 1.01000117 1.0 1 0
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 2322.94.72 1.6599.825 1.10000119 1.1 1 0
Anthony BandaMiddle Reliever 2919.76.85 1.67511.024 0.11000015 0.1 0 0

Game Summary

MIN wins 3-2


Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees

CLE 35-27 (4.16 RPG / 4.06 RA)
1 - 2
NYY 36-24 (5.15 RPG / 3.6 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 2-1 TARGET: CLE 1 - 2 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 57.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CLE00000000118
NYY00100001x27

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.362
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-119.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.278
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-72.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record35-27
Win%0.565
Run Diff6
RD/Game0.097

NYY Season Quality

Record36-24
Win%0.600
Run Diff93
RD/Game1.550

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.5065; margin adjustment: 0.6327; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Travis Bazzana2B 116423126 0.298 12520.408 53000 20 0.000 0.271 0.353 0.431 OK
José Ramírez3B 254943223 0.236 361280.352 54100 11 0.250 0.244 0.347 0.420 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 218847218 0.257 321480.334 54211 11 0.500 0.262 0.330 0.393 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 171611131 0.214 17600.297 54000 13 0.000 0.229 0.304 0.365 OK
Rhys HoskinsDH 15347897 0.203 22820.343 54000 10 0.000 0.210 0.334 0.446 OK
Angel MartínezLF 194748194 0.259 381190.298 44100 02 0.250 0.209 0.231 0.344 OK
Steven KwanCF 232877186 0.212 4560.330 44200 00 0.500 0.224 0.328 0.278 OK
Patrick BaileyC 267312 0.164 370.225 44100 03 0.250 0.177 0.234 0.280 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 207693208 0.300 141050.378 44100 02 0.250 0.266 0.327 0.382 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41358 11 612 0.229

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 213781165 0.211 321330.328 55000 02 0.000 0.244 0.361 0.397 OK
Ben Rice1B 216821247 0.301 701720.402 43100 10 0.333 0.331 0.425 0.662 OK
Paul GoldschmidtDH 112421120 0.285 25700.368 42100 20 0.500 0.295 0.364 0.556 OK
Cody BellingerLF 238873239 0.274 361610.380 43000 11 0.000 0.264 0.375 0.435 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 219830206 0.248 27920.329 44000 01 0.000 0.251 0.327 0.428 OK
José CaballeroRF 167588161 0.274 18630.328 44211 01 0.500 0.260 0.306 0.377 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 155518104 0.201 18660.262 44111 01 0.250 0.244 0.294 0.450 OK
Austin WellsC 15550697 0.192 17320.309 43200 10 0.667 0.184 0.297 0.269 OK
Anthony VolpeSS 4515246 0.303 6360.442 43000 10 0.000 0.250 0.384 0.428 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37317 22 66 0.226

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gavin WilliamsStarter 1275.43.10 1.10110.588 6.161146114 6.1 6 1
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2727.22.65 1.10313.942 1.20001024 1.2 0 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 1713.04.15 1.5389.714 0.01111014 0.0 0 1

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gerrit ColeStarter 212.20.00 0.7388.912 5.02003883 5.0 8 0
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2422.64.78 1.68111.529 1.01001020 1.0 0 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 2817.93.02 1.78815.130 1.02000219 1.0 2 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2718.93.81 1.3765.712 1.00002121 1.0 1 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 2922.62.39 1.68113.133 0.11000018 0.1 0 0
Camilo DovalMiddle Reliever 2618.67.26 1.3989.219 0.22110114 0.2 1 1

Game Summary

NYY wins 2-1


Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels

COL 24-38 (4.32 RPG / 5.55 RA)
2 - 4
LAA 23-39 (4.27 RPG / 5.21 RA)
WINNER: LAA wins 4-2 TARGET: COL 2 - 5 LAA (LAA) Confidence: 54.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
COL00020000025
LAA01020010x49

COL Recent Form

Win%0.175
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-205.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.193
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-163.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

COL Season Quality

Record23-38
Win%0.377
Run Diff-82
RD/Game-1.344

LAA Season Quality

Record23-38
Win%0.377
Run Diff-52
RD/Game-0.852

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4918; margin adjustment: 0.2066; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyCF 142477124 0.260 10690.299 44000 01 0.000 0.293 0.336 0.501 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 139512128 0.250 10570.325 43000 12 0.000 0.247 0.293 0.332 OK
TJ RumfieldDH 217817230 0.282 311180.359 44100 01 0.250 0.270 0.356 0.442 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 215854210 0.246 57940.313 43100 10 0.333 0.247 0.312 0.538 OK
Troy Johnston1B 187678223 0.329 10940.391 43000 12 0.000 0.302 0.357 0.424 OK
Willi CastroSS 175641166 0.259 9750.318 44112 01 0.250 0.255 0.318 0.375 OK
Sterlin ThompsonLF 318815 0.170 080.291 44000 01 0.000 0.139 0.241 0.225 OK
Kyle Karros3B 184568129 0.227 9540.337 44210 01 0.500 0.260 0.360 0.439 OK
Edouard Julien2B 153530119 0.225 10600.325 43000 11 0.000 0.230 0.350 0.304 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 22 410 0.156

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jorge SolerRF 224847187 0.221 361370.305 44111 01 0.250 0.240 0.305 0.396 OK
Mike TroutDH 255901227 0.252 631480.422 44000 02 0.000 0.268 0.430 0.509 OK
Wade MecklerLF 237624 0.316 5190.358 44100 00 0.250 0.268 0.313 0.456 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 127473117 0.247 13980.313 43000 10 0.000 0.262 0.328 0.410 OK
Oswald PerazaSS 162561159 0.283 27630.354 44311 00 0.750 0.284 0.316 0.457 OK
Donovan Walton3B 249225 0.272 010.309 44211 01 0.500 0.284 0.323 0.400 OK
Nick Madrigal2B 4102 0.200 000.200 43011 01 0.000 0.233 0.246 0.328 OK
Jose SiriCF 15359 0.257 260.257 33100 00 0.333 0.228 0.239 0.460 OK
Logan O'HoppeC 12542595 0.224 5470.318 33100 01 0.333 0.207 0.282 0.323 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34329 44 16 0.281

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael LorenzenStarter 1355.07.53 1.9827.043 4.17331480 4.1 4 3
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1730.71.47 1.0107.626 1.10000023 1.1 0 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 2523.86.81 1.97511.731 0.21110120 0.2 1 1
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 2415.44.68 1.94813.423 1.21000116 1.2 1 0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walbert UrenaStarter 1043.42.49 1.4068.541 5.25222894 5.2 8 2
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 97.44.86 1.35112.210 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 2124.62.56 1.26010.629 1.1000125 1.1 2 0
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 2224.16.35 1.53512.032 1.00000019 1.0 0 0
Brent SuterMiddle Reliever 2330.24.47 1.3918.328 0.00000019 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

LAA wins 4-2


Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays

DET 25-38 (3.94 RPG / 4.33 RA)
0 - 3
TB 36-23 (4.63 RPG / 4.54 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 3-0 TARGET: DET 1 - 2 TB (TB) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
DET00000000004
TB00100101x38

DET Recent Form

Win%0.262
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-126.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TB Recent Form

Win%0.309
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-115.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

DET Season Quality

Record24-38
Win%0.387
Run Diff-30
RD/Game-0.484

TB Season Quality

Record36-22
Win%0.621
Run Diff10
RD/Game0.172

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0067; margin adjustment: 0.4228; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gleyber Torres2B 146537137 0.255 11520.391 44000 01 0.000 0.256 0.383 0.358 OK
Kevin McGonigleSS 243931278 0.299 141070.399 43100 11 0.333 0.250 0.347 0.362 OK
Dillon DinglerDH 209778190 0.244 511530.331 44100 00 0.250 0.240 0.307 0.529 OK
Kerry CarpenterRF 11937985 0.224 23660.303 44000 00 0.000 0.270 0.326 0.516 OK
Riley GreeneLF 239872270 0.310 191150.406 43000 11 0.000 0.294 0.377 0.483 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 220765161 0.210 32810.316 44000 01 0.000 0.238 0.324 0.409 OK
Colt Keith3B 166538152 0.283 0230.330 44100 02 0.250 0.211 0.273 0.285 OK
Matt VierlingCF 162590121 0.205 15840.278 32000 11 0.000 0.159 0.238 0.293 OK
Jake RogersC 5616422 0.134 0140.220 33100 01 0.333 0.143 0.243 0.236 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 00 38 0.129

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 226937266 0.284 0440.320 43011 00 0.000 0.194 0.239 0.242 OK
Junior Caminero3B 237932250 0.268 581300.367 43100 12 0.333 0.297 0.414 0.516 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 232865249 0.288 441920.382 44100 01 0.250 0.270 0.373 0.481 OK
Yandy DíazDH 223873277 0.317 331560.397 44100 01 0.250 0.300 0.373 0.546 OK
Richie Palacios2B 119369102 0.276 4580.386 44111 00 0.250 0.199 0.318 0.285 OK
Ben WilliamsonSS 132442122 0.276 0570.357 43111 11 0.333 0.269 0.339 0.360 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 186691130 0.188 13730.265 43000 11 0.000 0.181 0.275 0.265 OK
Nick FortesC 137450112 0.249 4380.290 44200 00 0.500 0.211 0.236 0.299 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 165813 0.224 6130.297 33100 00 0.333 0.200 0.276 0.331 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35318 33 36 0.258

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Troy MeltonStarter 212.21.48 0.9843.04 5.04002484 5.0 4 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2625.21.43 1.5485.716 1.01110017 1.0 0 1
Will VestMiddle Reliever 1916.18.39 1.67711.220 0.21110120 0.2 1 1
Drew AndersonMiddle Reliever 2034.54.43 1.39112.046 1.12111112 1.1 1 1

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick MartinezStarter 1165.51.65 1.1305.641 6.03002493 6.0 4 0
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 2724.42.21 1.06610.729 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 2526.84.37 1.38111.133 1.11000019 1.1 0 0
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 2622.83.16 0.9657.519 0.20001214 0.2 2 0

Game Summary

TB wins 3-0


Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds

KC 23-38 (3.82 RPG / 4.69 RA)
1 - 3
CIN 31-29 (4.37 RPG / 5.0 RA)
WINNER: CIN wins 3-1 TARGET: KC 1 - 2 CIN (CIN) Confidence: 53.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
KC00000001013
CIN00100020x35

KC Recent Form

Win%0.125
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-172.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.250
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-168.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

KC Season Quality

Record23-38
Win%0.377
Run Diff-53
RD/Game-0.869

CIN Season Quality

Record31-29
Win%0.517
Run Diff-38
RD/Game-0.633

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4449; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenC 190651151 0.232 241010.319 43000 10 0.000 0.214 0.292 0.369 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 248994286 0.288 401120.356 44000 02 0.000 0.246 0.326 0.413 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 232874171 0.196 231080.293 44000 03 0.000 0.217 0.314 0.322 OK
Salvador PerezDH 226871193 0.222 421110.275 43000 11 0.000 0.203 0.251 0.332 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 184643142 0.221 19430.297 44000 01 0.000 0.180 0.254 0.319 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 182600134 0.223 11710.350 43000 10 0.000 0.206 0.316 0.297 OK
Michael Massey2B 11837389 0.239 12510.256 33100 00 0.333 0.206 0.235 0.405 OK
Nick Loftin3B 7421846 0.211 0480.319 33100 00 0.333 0.202 0.299 0.301 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 156509133 0.261 11420.312 33111 01 0.333 0.208 0.241 0.316 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33303 11 38 0.100

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Blake DunnCF 5724575 0.306 5150.370 44000 01 0.000 0.198 0.254 0.276 OK
JJ BledayLF 117448125 0.279 341040.372 43110 10 0.333 0.286 0.374 0.625 OK
Sal Stewart1B 243908225 0.248 491600.357 42000 20 0.000 0.256 0.357 0.422 OK
Nathaniel LoweDH 133446128 0.287 36930.379 44000 02 0.000 0.197 0.309 0.417 OK
Eugenio Suárez3B 123450105 0.233 11530.311 43000 10 0.000 0.210 0.295 0.350 OK
Spencer Steer2B 212782209 0.267 32890.342 44100 00 0.250 0.295 0.366 0.518 OK
Will BensonRF 9324846 0.185 6110.303 33100 01 0.333 0.162 0.263 0.324 OK
Tyler StephensonC 162535103 0.193 17740.299 33112 00 0.333 0.200 0.300 0.323 OK
Matt McLainSS 217838177 0.211 22910.308 33111 01 0.333 0.196 0.289 0.312 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33295 33 45 0.172

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Stephen KolekStarter 530.33.56 0.9575.619 6.131135101 6.1 5 1
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 2321.45.47 1.8228.420 0.02220018 0.0 0 2
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 2320.32.22 1.13312.027 1.20001018 1.2 0 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chase BurnsStarter 1163.41.99 0.97810.272 6.01001694 6.0 6 0
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 2421.54.19 1.3959.222 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 3023.24.27 1.68110.928 1.02112127 1.0 1 1
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 109.24.89 1.1968.89 1.00000016 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

CIN wins 3-1


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

LAD 39-22 (5.26 RPG / 3.18 RA)
4 - 3
ARI 32-28 (4.55 RPG / 4.38 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 4-3 TARGET: LAD 5 - 3 ARI (LAD) Confidence: 55.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
LAD000010300411
ARI00010100134

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.316
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-68.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.345
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed2.4
Run Diff-72.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAD Season Quality

Record38-22
Win%0.633
Run Diff126
RD/Game2.100

ARI Season Quality

Record32-27
Win%0.542
Run Diff11
RD/Game0.186

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.05; margin adjustment: -0.861; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 242935263 0.281 411540.407 54000 12 0.000 0.331 0.424 0.578 OK
Andy PagesCF 231882276 0.313 582220.361 55310 00 0.600 0.287 0.331 0.527 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 232875237 0.271 321250.370 54211 11 0.500 0.288 0.364 0.523 OK
Mookie BettsSS 9641075 0.183 29730.230 53111 11 0.333 0.223 0.275 0.392 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 232893225 0.252 211200.346 55212 01 0.400 0.227 0.320 0.368 OK
Max Muncy3B 196696181 0.260 54820.360 55000 02 0.000 0.240 0.321 0.507 OK
Will SmithC 176659169 0.256 22990.332 43000 11 0.000 0.273 0.372 0.470 OK
Alex CallLF 6520155 0.274 0380.393 44100 01 0.250 0.195 0.318 0.281 OK
Alex Freeland2B 12038694 0.244 9350.321 44200 02 0.500 0.236 0.313 0.399 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423711 44 411 0.297

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Geraldo PerdomoSS 222780175 0.224 10800.341 44000 01 0.000 0.223 0.321 0.363 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 227842251 0.298 331290.397 44100 01 0.250 0.255 0.336 0.490 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 128462121 0.262 13740.327 44100 01 0.250 0.259 0.339 0.389 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 198686190 0.277 301180.360 42011 20 0.000 0.254 0.332 0.454 OK
Pavin SmithDH 10274 0.148 050.361 43111 11 0.333 0.212 0.360 0.284 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 7225369 0.273 0280.341 43100 11 0.333 0.187 0.262 0.290 OK
Ildemaro Vargas2B 202818252 0.308 321550.334 43011 01 0.000 0.243 0.272 0.372 OK
Jose Fernandez1B 155556149 0.268 12590.304 44000 03 0.000 0.214 0.254 0.319 OK
Tommy TroyLF 185721 0.368 110.446 33000 01 0.000 0.249 0.331 0.456 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35304 33 410 0.133

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shohei OhtaniStarter 23139.00.52 0.7778.7135 6.0311310144 6.0 10 1
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 2724.52.20 0.73510.729 1.0011003 1.0 0 1
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 1918.22.47 0.98910.922 1.1000004 1.1 0 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 2616.62.71 1.14515.228 0.2111104 0.2 0 1

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zac GallenStarter 1257.75.30 1.5086.642 5.062228101 5.0 8 2
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 1.03222038 1.0 0 2
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.01000128 1.0 1 0
Taylor ClarkeMiddle Reliever 10.1360.00 30.0000.00 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-3


Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

MIA 29-34 (4.25 RPG / 4.54 RA)
5 - 1
WAS 31-32 (5.25 RPG / 5.41 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 5-1 TARGET: MIA 3 - 1 WAS (MIA) Confidence: 54.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIA00302000058
WAS10000000014

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.328
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-144.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.279
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-150.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIA Season Quality

Record28-34
Win%0.452
Run Diff-21
RD/Game-0.339

WAS Season Quality

Record31-31
Win%0.500
Run Diff-7
RD/Game-0.113

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2984; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Heriberto HernándezLF 10334269 0.202 7610.267 54000 12 0.000 0.248 0.297 0.479 OK
Otto LopezSS 237954331 0.347 201080.378 54000 11 0.000 0.313 0.341 0.471 OK
Kyle StowersRF 144544114 0.210 13440.301 55211 01 0.400 0.232 0.300 0.394 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 243922295 0.320 26850.406 54111 11 0.250 0.292 0.394 0.449 OK
Christopher MorelDH 6321139 0.185 040.246 54110 00 0.250 0.211 0.258 0.294 OK
Esteury RuizCF 4412524 0.192 8170.222 44000 03 0.000 0.123 0.174 0.314 OK
Connor Norby1B 188637141 0.221 18630.329 43110 11 0.333 0.196 0.271 0.316 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 123423121 0.286 4790.326 43313 10 1.000 0.255 0.297 0.377 OK
Joe MackC 6521345 0.211 1270.257 44000 01 0.000 0.206 0.246 0.315 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41358 55 510 0.229

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodDH 2711045301 0.288 761940.429 44000 01 0.000 0.256 0.384 0.510 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 3414234 0.239 460.265 42100 20 0.500 0.237 0.259 0.345 OK
Curtis Mead3B 149495127 0.257 33900.374 44111 02 0.250 0.209 0.315 0.418 OK
CJ AbramsSS 243923276 0.299 482060.389 44000 01 0.000 0.292 0.365 0.485 OK
Jacob YoungCF 196737173 0.235 25930.288 44100 01 0.250 0.230 0.281 0.373 OK
Daylen LileLF 2511033263 0.255 321250.312 44100 01 0.250 0.235 0.290 0.357 OK
Keibert RuizC 115402104 0.259 18920.275 33000 01 0.000 0.275 0.289 0.491 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 178663185 0.279 211230.299 33000 01 0.000 0.210 0.237 0.403 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 193661128 0.194 0630.296 33000 01 0.000 0.208 0.291 0.265 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 11 29 0.129

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max MeyerStarter 1265.53.02 1.11510.274 5.23002691 5.2 6 0
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 1714.47.50 1.38913.822 1.11110115 1.1 1 1
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 2519.94.07 1.10611.826 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 2220.33.99 1.28111.125 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew AlvarezStarter 515.24.14 1.31610.117 4.16333785 4.1 7 3
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 2317.85.06 1.91010.120 1.02221223 1.0 2 2
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 1514.52.48 1.3109.315 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 1915.43.51 2.1439.917 0.20000017 0.2 0 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1734.22.89 1.0828.231 1.10001024 1.1 0 0
Orlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever 1515.21.78 0.9217.112 0.20000115 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 5-1


New York Mets @ Seattle Mariners

NYM 27-35 (4.05 RPG / 4.26 RA)
1 - 5
SEA 33-30 (4.24 RPG / 3.76 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 5-1 TARGET: NYM 2 - 3 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 53.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
NYM00000001016
SEA00210011x510

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.370
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-114.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-85.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record26-34
Win%0.433
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.233

SEA Season Quality

Record32-29
Win%0.525
Run Diff31
RD/Game0.508

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8784; margin adjustment: 0.3689; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 205783207 0.264 141000.333 44000 01 0.000 0.255 0.316 0.455 OK
Bo BichetteSS 2471021230 0.225 241320.274 44111 00 0.250 0.175 0.244 0.249 OK
Juan SotoDH 169639193 0.302 461080.399 44100 03 0.250 0.269 0.359 0.500 OK
Jared Young1B 308728 0.322 260.372 43100 10 0.333 0.170 0.241 0.335 OK
Brett Baty3B 185663162 0.244 14900.309 44000 01 0.000 0.206 0.261 0.308 OK
Marcus Semien2B 225827194 0.235 21940.283 44100 00 0.250 0.243 0.302 0.424 OK
A.J. EwingCF 6522357 0.256 4220.366 43100 10 0.333 0.213 0.311 0.310 OK
MJ MelendezLF 9023355 0.236 8230.354 44100 02 0.250 0.191 0.263 0.394 OK
Luis TorrensC 9829457 0.194 0330.255 33000 00 0.000 0.160 0.197 0.240 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 11 27 0.182

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 209774176 0.227 35940.352 55212 00 0.400 0.238 0.358 0.427 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 2521032266 0.258 491330.315 54000 11 0.000 0.258 0.300 0.514 OK
Josh Naylor1B 233930248 0.267 231090.331 44111 01 0.250 0.262 0.318 0.373 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 244904275 0.304 241100.389 44000 03 0.000 0.266 0.324 0.405 OK
Luke RaleyRF 157541160 0.296 471280.351 43210 10 0.667 0.275 0.310 0.573 OK
Cole Young2B 229810198 0.244 141100.323 44212 01 0.500 0.273 0.335 0.402 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 130384103 0.268 23850.333 44100 00 0.250 0.293 0.349 0.590 OK
Jhonny PeredaC 3310618 0.170 240.273 44100 01 0.250 0.224 0.307 0.329 OK
Colt Emerson3B 3812236 0.295 6260.377 42110 21 0.500 0.272 0.337 0.584 OK
TEAM TOTALS 383410 55 48 0.294

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Freddy PeraltaStarter 1263.93.66 1.3469.668 5.253327109 5.2 7 3
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 2218.64.84 1.45215.031 1.12111128 1.1 1 1
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 2423.93.01 1.1309.425 1.03111026 1.0 0 1

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
George KirbyStarter 1271.93.88 1.2527.459 6.04001597 6.0 5 0
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 2421.55.02 1.34914.735 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 1713.60.66 0.8828.613 1.01111120 1.0 1 1
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 2823.41.92 1.3258.823 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-1


Oakland Athletics @ Chicago Cubs

OAK 29-31 (4.23 RPG / 4.78 RA)
3 - 5
CHC 32-29 (4.67 RPG / 4.38 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 5-3 TARGET: OAK 3 - 4 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 55.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
OAK01002000036
CHC01200002x58

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.214
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-151.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.117
Avg Runs0.7
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-166.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record28-31
Win%0.475
Run Diff-34
RD/Game-0.576

CHC Season Quality

Record32-28
Win%0.533
Run Diff19
RD/Game0.317

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9811; margin adjustment: 0.4121; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CortesRF 153510178 0.349 24750.431 54000 11 0.000 0.238 0.333 0.388 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 252915262 0.286 411760.439 54110 10 0.250 0.290 0.422 0.563 OK
Shea LangeliersC 232962293 0.305 601320.374 44112 00 0.250 0.253 0.315 0.462 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 226872190 0.218 271100.306 43100 00 0.333 0.281 0.382 0.513 OK
Brent RookerDH 163625126 0.202 371280.292 44111 01 0.250 0.205 0.283 0.378 OK
Lawrence ButlerCF 16355398 0.177 13560.278 43100 12 0.333 0.158 0.249 0.238 OK
Zack Gelof3B 138514132 0.257 26720.308 44100 01 0.250 0.229 0.268 0.367 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 191670179 0.267 6580.336 43000 10 0.000 0.213 0.275 0.284 OK
Alika WilliamsSS 8224 0.182 040.182 44000 01 0.000 0.108 0.122 0.161 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38336 33 46 0.182

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 2581086280 0.258 211620.343 44110 00 0.250 0.252 0.335 0.339 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 237872213 0.244 271090.337 44111 00 0.250 0.281 0.345 0.441 OK
Alex BregmanDH 2581066278 0.261 18830.349 44011 00 0.000 0.244 0.315 0.355 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 185718183 0.255 32880.346 43100 00 0.333 0.257 0.323 0.383 OK
Ian HappLF 242948227 0.239 641510.360 43211 11 0.667 0.267 0.356 0.541 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 217751150 0.200 331170.307 44212 01 0.500 0.186 0.311 0.309 OK
Michael Busch1B 251926221 0.239 301570.382 43000 10 0.000 0.268 0.389 0.400 OK
Pedro Ramirez3B 8227 0.318 040.423 44000 00 0.000 0.168 0.277 0.356 OK
Miguel AmayaC 9129865 0.218 12330.323 33100 02 0.333 0.179 0.273 0.287 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35328 55 24 0.250

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jeffrey SpringsStarter 1265.44.13 1.2087.857 5.25332394 5.2 3 3
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 3121.73.32 2.02812.931 2.10000125 2.1 1 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 2622.16.11 1.62910.225 0.03220016 0.0 0 2

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Colin ReaStarter 1257.04.89 1.4217.749 5.15333394 5.1 3 3
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 1411.52.35 1.47810.213 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 1410.82.50 1.38912.515 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 2522.12.85 1.49312.631 1.01000112 1.0 1 0
Hoby MilnerMiddle Reliever 2722.12.85 1.1765.313 0.20001016 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-3


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros

PIT 33-28 (5.1 RPG / 4.52 RA)
1 - 2
HOU 27-35 (4.47 RPG / 5.06 RA)
WINNER: HOU wins 2-1 TARGET: PIT 1 - 2 HOU (HOU) Confidence: 53.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
PIT01000000016
HOU00100010x24

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.278
Avg Runs1.7
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-95.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.379
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-157.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record32-28
Win%0.533
Run Diff31
RD/Game0.517

HOU Season Quality

Record27-34
Win%0.443
Run Diff-33
RD/Game-0.541

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1937; margin adjustment: -0.5014; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Spencer Horwitz1B 193645186 0.288 221060.404 43000 11 0.000 0.271 0.390 0.448 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 224888240 0.270 661820.361 43000 11 0.000 0.241 0.318 0.488 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 243883247 0.280 231550.406 43000 12 0.000 0.303 0.447 0.553 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 202811251 0.309 1980.362 44200 00 0.500 0.327 0.374 0.425 OK
Oneil CruzCF 2481055282 0.267 551780.334 44200 00 0.500 0.256 0.339 0.533 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 192774147 0.190 251020.278 44000 01 0.000 0.206 0.276 0.318 OK
Jhostynxon GarciaRF 237918 0.228 010.265 44111 02 0.250 0.214 0.251 0.266 OK
Jared TrioloSS 7827661 0.221 0100.274 44100 01 0.250 0.207 0.254 0.252 OK
Henry DavisC 12743262 0.144 15420.239 44000 03 0.000 0.145 0.216 0.264 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 11 311 0.182

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 9137997 0.256 10300.308 44000 02 0.000 0.279 0.306 0.453 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 249922304 0.330 991870.445 42000 10 0.000 0.285 0.400 0.599 OK
Christian Walker1B 234890244 0.274 671850.349 44111 00 0.250 0.227 0.291 0.448 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 214799191 0.239 261030.335 43000 10 0.000 0.217 0.300 0.397 OK
Cam SmithRF 217758166 0.219 20880.313 44100 00 0.250 0.238 0.323 0.389 OK
Jake MeyersCF 6926259 0.225 9250.294 43000 11 0.000 0.230 0.286 0.355 OK
Zach DezenzoLF 4713127 0.206 360.283 33211 01 0.667 0.192 0.267 0.344 OK
Nick Allen2B 5114447 0.326 4190.395 32000 10 0.000 0.160 0.220 0.232 OK
Christian VázquezC 121400108 0.270 16660.329 33000 00 0.000 0.223 0.282 0.347 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33284 22 44 0.143

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Paul SkenesStarter 1264.42.93 0.87010.575 6.03111494 6.0 4 1
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2826.72.02 0.78711.534 1.01112024 1.0 0 1
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 2218.83.83 1.43614.430 1.00001017 1.0 0 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer ArrighettiStarter 846.31.36 1.1458.443 5.230036107 5.2 6 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 2221.63.33 1.5287.919 1.11000222 1.1 2 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 2217.09.00 2.35313.225 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Nate PearsonMiddle Reliever 43.20.00 1.2505.62 1.00000216 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

HOU wins 2-1


San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies

SD 32-28 (3.85 RPG / 3.98 RA)
2 - 3
PHI 32-29 (3.87 RPG / 4.26 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 3-2 TARGET: SD 1 - 2 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 54.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SD20000000027
PHI00001002x35

SD Recent Form

Win%0.182
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-130.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.179
Avg Runs0.6
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-153.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SD Season Quality

Record32-27
Win%0.542
Run Diff-7
RD/Game-0.119

PHI Season Quality

Record31-29
Win%0.517
Run Diff-25
RD/Game-0.417

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3366; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 231890236 0.265 1700.342 54200 11 0.500 0.294 0.351 0.385 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 168639179 0.280 19710.307 44111 01 0.250 0.235 0.262 0.381 OK
Manny Machado3B 221799139 0.174 401220.267 42111 01 0.500 0.177 0.261 0.349 OK
Gavin SheetsLF 173588147 0.250 33870.332 43100 11 0.333 0.225 0.309 0.429 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 213789198 0.251 301040.320 44100 02 0.250 0.226 0.304 0.355 OK
Ty France1B 103352103 0.293 20610.325 44000 02 0.000 0.260 0.291 0.483 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 220859176 0.205 18890.280 44100 00 0.250 0.227 0.295 0.371 OK
Jase BowenRF 141 0.250 000.250 44000 01 0.000 0.217 0.227 0.303 OK
Rodolfo DuránC 25657 0.108 480.256 44000 01 0.000 0.146 0.251 0.263 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37337 22 210 0.212

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 243946232 0.245 981850.358 42111 20 0.500 0.235 0.333 0.519 OK
Trea TurnerSS 2441050244 0.232 34890.279 44111 01 0.250 0.232 0.269 0.377 OK
Bryce Harper1B 234850234 0.275 581500.383 43000 10 0.000 0.233 0.356 0.468 OK
Brandon MarshLF 196730248 0.340 231110.371 44000 03 0.000 0.344 0.379 0.497 OK
Alec Bohm3B 213801172 0.215 181000.274 43100 01 0.333 0.205 0.258 0.324 OK
Bryson Stott2B 189680148 0.218 21990.269 44000 03 0.000 0.185 0.234 0.338 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 133465116 0.249 9410.325 33000 00 0.000 0.238 0.285 0.349 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 217773152 0.197 12680.284 33111 00 0.333 0.163 0.230 0.243 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 177606144 0.238 8440.302 33100 00 0.333 0.228 0.277 0.345 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33295 33 38 0.172

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walker BuehlerStarter 1149.85.06 1.3657.843 5.01112586 5.0 5 1
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 2423.60.76 0.89018.749 1.00001022 1.0 0 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 2318.70.96 1.1235.311 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 2725.14.66 1.27512.535 0.24220220 0.2 2 2

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cristopher SánchezStarter 1278.41.49 1.13510.995 6.262228112 6.2 8 2
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 1918.21.48 0.93414.329 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 2624.53.67 1.22410.328 0.21000016 0.2 0 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 2615.96.79 2.20114.726 0.20000217 0.2 2 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 3-2


San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers

SF 23-38 (3.89 RPG / 4.98 RA)
3 - 4
MIL 37-21 (5.03 RPG / 3.43 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 4-3 TARGET: SF 2 - 5 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 62.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SF01200000036
MIL20100001x411

SF Recent Form

Win%0.179
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-158.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.392
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-58.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SF Season Quality

Record23-38
Win%0.377
Run Diff-67
RD/Game-1.098

MIL Season Quality

Record37-21
Win%0.638
Run Diff93
RD/Game1.603

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 3.0931; margin adjustment: 1.2991; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Casey SchmittLF 199788240 0.305 511340.348 44100 01 0.250 0.244 0.266 0.450 OK
Rafael Devers1B 233907230 0.254 291250.302 44000 00 0.000 0.231 0.292 0.397 OK
Luis Arraez2B 230935315 0.337 101000.380 44100 02 0.250 0.294 0.340 0.408 OK
Willy AdamesSS 236990252 0.255 32920.288 43000 02 0.000 0.240 0.278 0.463 OK
Jung Hoo LeeCF 198778229 0.294 12760.338 44211 00 0.500 0.342 0.370 0.477 OK
Matt Chapman3B 232890200 0.225 6810.316 43111 11 0.333 0.211 0.293 0.345 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 5517837 0.208 580.290 44000 02 0.000 0.256 0.333 0.453 OK
Daniel SusacC 5619767 0.340 0380.396 44111 03 0.250 0.200 0.261 0.316 OK
Victor BericotoRF 7133 0.231 000.231 33000 01 0.000 0.117 0.132 0.173 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 33 112 0.182

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Christian YelichDH 102395116 0.294 15630.359 43110 10 0.333 0.294 0.372 0.448 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 6422376 0.341 4350.417 44100 01 0.250 0.355 0.399 0.523 OK
Brice Turang2B 231862248 0.288 341540.409 44312 00 0.750 0.273 0.412 0.454 OK
William ContrerasC 221894267 0.299 171560.369 44111 02 0.250 0.269 0.333 0.371 OK
Jake BauersLF 184694198 0.285 361330.358 44100 01 0.250 0.260 0.349 0.507 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 169587143 0.244 71060.355 44100 01 0.250 0.258 0.368 0.407 OK
Sal FrelickRF 189687154 0.224 14670.291 44100 00 0.250 0.245 0.299 0.346 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 169612133 0.217 0620.286 44211 00 0.500 0.184 0.258 0.249 OK
David HamiltonSS 146468111 0.237 1320.329 44000 03 0.000 0.247 0.331 0.343 OK
TEAM TOTALS 363511 44 18 0.314

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan WebbStarter 952.14.84 1.4018.147 5.18330591 5.1 5 3
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 2522.74.36 1.41011.529 1.21000220 1.2 2 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 2524.52.57 0.9398.122 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 1915.04.80 1.60015.025 0.02110018 0.0 0 1

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Robert GasserStarter 28.16.67 1.6057.87 4.05331584 4.0 5 3
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 2420.74.35 1.35310.023 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 2222.02.45 0.90911.528 1.11000120 1.1 1 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 2733.62.41 1.45813.952 1.10000219 1.1 2 0
Chad PatrickMiddle Reliever 1444.62.62 1.2336.934 1.1000024 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-3


Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals

TEX 30-31 (4.03 RPG / 3.85 RA)
2 - 1
STL 31-28 (4.27 RPG / 4.51 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 2-1 TARGET: TEX 3 - 1 STL (TEX) Confidence: 53.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
TEX00200000029
STL00010000013

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.328
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-103.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.107
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-119.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TEX Season Quality

Record30-31
Win%0.492
Run Diff11
RD/Game0.180

STL Season Quality

Record31-28
Win%0.525
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.237

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3672; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 162485128 0.264 25660.368 55210 02 0.400 0.218 0.330 0.437 OK
Josh Jung3B 212823251 0.305 27970.362 55112 00 0.200 0.298 0.349 0.492 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 240952249 0.262 29930.344 44100 01 0.250 0.224 0.279 0.375 OK
Jake Burger1B 220850201 0.236 381480.288 44100 02 0.250 0.244 0.301 0.397 OK
Ezequiel DuranSS 169591180 0.305 141100.360 43100 10 0.333 0.251 0.315 0.407 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 9326363 0.240 0240.375 44000 02 0.000 0.234 0.312 0.286 OK
Evan CarterCF 196634117 0.185 25690.301 43000 10 0.000 0.142 0.248 0.270 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 9432163 0.196 11340.281 44100 01 0.250 0.168 0.254 0.265 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 12397 0.179 140.256 44200 02 0.500 0.147 0.208 0.220 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38369 22 210 0.250

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Masyn WinnSS 204787182 0.231 6910.297 43000 12 0.000 0.237 0.289 0.349 OK
Iván HerreraC 248942244 0.259 281160.385 44100 00 0.250 0.238 0.327 0.383 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 229895283 0.316 692000.382 43111 00 0.333 0.244 0.304 0.432 OK
Nelson VelázquezDH 4104 0.400 130.455 44100 02 0.250 0.274 0.285 0.426 OK
Alec Burleson1B 233941263 0.279 311600.344 33000 00 0.000 0.256 0.314 0.389 OK
José FermínLF 7320541 0.200 5250.263 33000 00 0.000 0.137 0.198 0.240 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 203738169 0.229 251100.304 33000 00 0.000 0.186 0.263 0.326 OK
Thomas Saggese2B 7624741 0.166 180.226 33000 00 0.000 0.171 0.263 0.304 OK
Victor Scott IICF 16047582 0.173 9270.247 33000 00 0.000 0.175 0.247 0.250 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31293 11 14 0.103

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
MacKenzie GoreStarter 1259.74.07 1.2239.865 5.12111388 5.1 3 1
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 2125.61.05 0.4699.126 1.1100005 1.1 0 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 2325.51.76 0.8246.017 1.10000010 1.1 0 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 2721.83.72 1.6518.721 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andre PallanteStarter 1157.34.24 1.3617.246 5.152227102 5.1 7 2
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2624.74.37 1.17410.629 1.02000219 1.0 2 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2722.23.65 1.44110.526 1.21000124 1.2 1 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 2621.43.36 1.2629.322 1.01000016 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 2-1


Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves

TOR 29-32 (4.05 RPG / 4.18 RA)
2 - 6
ATL 41-20 (5.25 RPG / 3.44 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 6-2 TARGET: TOR 2 - 4 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 53.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
TOR10100000026
ATL00303000x610

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.259
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-114.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.296
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-83.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TOR Season Quality

Record29-32
Win%0.475
Run Diff-8
RD/Game-0.131

ATL Season Quality

Record41-20
Win%0.672
Run Diff110
RD/Game1.803

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.2295; margin adjustment: 0.9364; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nathan LukesLF 7324981 0.325 0340.368 44200 00 0.500 0.298 0.325 0.402 OK
Yohendrick PinangoRF 8328688 0.308 9470.338 44211 00 0.500 0.264 0.292 0.430 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 229842248 0.295 12990.393 43000 10 0.000 0.276 0.358 0.372 OK
Jesús SánchezDH 178598166 0.278 251050.320 43011 01 0.000 0.223 0.251 0.380 OK
Ernie Clement2B 225901274 0.304 22900.326 44000 00 0.000 0.289 0.308 0.430 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 216816221 0.271 24750.347 44100 02 0.250 0.222 0.291 0.375 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 227847187 0.221 501340.312 43000 12 0.000 0.215 0.304 0.451 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 198711161 0.226 251110.260 44000 01 0.000 0.188 0.222 0.359 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 10934190 0.264 17440.361 44100 01 0.250 0.204 0.316 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 22 27 0.182

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.DH 194737174 0.236 19800.360 43210 10 0.667 0.269 0.413 0.616 OK
Michael Harris IICF 202791237 0.300 531370.323 44111 03 0.250 0.310 0.345 0.525 OK
Matt Olson1B 251982266 0.271 702010.354 44211 01 0.500 0.278 0.349 0.576 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 247968270 0.279 391320.337 44314 00 0.750 0.305 0.355 0.488 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 218836211 0.252 121200.307 44000 00 0.000 0.219 0.274 0.329 OK
Austin Riley3B 238903197 0.218 311300.291 43110 12 0.333 0.177 0.240 0.294 OK
Eli WhiteRF 7420945 0.215 6360.254 44110 02 0.250 0.186 0.242 0.316 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 4817217 0.099 0100.193 44000 01 0.000 0.128 0.209 0.159 OK
Chadwick TrompC 215615 0.268 070.263 44000 03 0.000 0.145 0.155 0.253 OK
TEAM TOTALS 363410 66 212 0.294

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Patrick CorbinStarter 1047.73.77 1.4056.836 5.09442998 5.0 9 4
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 2828.20.32 1.13513.442 1.10220219 1.1 2 2
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 2823.17.01 1.94817.545 0.00000019 0.0 0 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 2824.12.61 1.2456.016 1.21000112 1.2 1 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Grant HolmesStarter 1155.64.05 1.3678.653 5.04221383 5.0 3 2
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1818.20.99 0.93410.922 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 2625.50.71 0.8638.524 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 2825.11.43 0.67712.234 1.0200005 1.0 0 0
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 2823.83.40 1.26110.628 1.00001215 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-2