MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

May 31, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ SEA3 - 53 - 4SEASEASEA wins 4-354%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
ATL @ CIN5 - 16 - 1ATLATLATL wins 6-153%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
BOS @ CLE3 - 14 - 1BOSBOSBOS wins 4-156%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHC @ STL4 - 53 - 6STLSTLSTL wins 6-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
DET @ CHW4 - 53 - 5CHWCHWCHW wins 5-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
KC @ TEX2 - 32 - 3TEXTEXTEX wins 3-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAA @ TB1 - 21 - 2TBTBTB wins 2-158%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIA @ NYM2 - 13 - 1MIAMIAMIA wins 3-156%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIL @ HOU4 - 15 - 2MILMILMIL wins 5-261%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIN @ PIT1 - 21 - 2PITPITPIT wins 2-153%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYY @ OAK6 - 15 - 1NYYNYYNYY wins 5-164%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PHI @ LAD1 - 62 - 5LADLADLAD wins 5-264%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SD @ WAS4 - 54 - 7WASWASWAS wins 7-456%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SF @ COL4 - 36 - 2SFSFSF wins 6-256%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TOR @ BAL3 - 13 - 2TORTORTOR wins 3-256%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners

ARI 31-26 (4.6 RPG / 4.44 RA)
3 - 4
SEA 30-29 (4.27 RPG / 3.78 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 4-3 TARGET: ARI 3 - 5 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 53.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
ARI02100000034
SEA20000002x46

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.375
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.3
Run Diff-56.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.426
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-91.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

ARI Season Quality

Record31-25
Win%0.554
Run Diff13
RD/Game0.232

SEA Season Quality

Record29-29
Win%0.500
Run Diff25
RD/Game0.431

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1185; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel MarteDH 225956265 0.277 401460.323 44000 02 0.000 0.268 0.315 0.435 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 224829247 0.298 321280.398 44100 00 0.250 0.249 0.342 0.463 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 219772174 0.225 10800.343 44011 02 0.000 0.250 0.354 0.393 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 195675188 0.279 291150.362 44000 02 0.000 0.275 0.365 0.435 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 7024567 0.273 0280.341 43110 11 0.333 0.193 0.272 0.304 OK
Ildemaro Vargas2B 199807250 0.310 321550.335 33000 01 0.000 0.276 0.298 0.427 OK
Jose Fernandez1B 147532146 0.274 12580.307 33112 00 0.333 0.236 0.262 0.353 OK
Aramis GarciaC 000 0.000 000.000 33000 00 0.000 0.236 0.302 0.385
Tim TawaLF 4312415 0.121 080.231 33100 02 0.333 0.177 0.286 0.284 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32314 33 110 0.129

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 206764175 0.229 35940.352 43000 10 0.000 0.273 0.367 0.450 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 2491019265 0.260 481310.318 44112 00 0.250 0.265 0.309 0.525 OK
Josh Naylor1B 231923246 0.267 221080.331 44110 00 0.250 0.269 0.324 0.350 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 241891273 0.306 241100.391 44210 00 0.500 0.275 0.336 0.427 OK
Luke RaleyRF 154531159 0.299 471280.353 43212 10 0.667 0.283 0.311 0.614 OK
Cole Young2B 226799194 0.243 131080.322 44000 00 0.000 0.267 0.337 0.363 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 12737698 0.261 22840.326 32000 11 0.000 0.244 0.300 0.543 OK
Jhonny PeredaC 319814 0.143 110.257 33000 03 0.000 0.180 0.278 0.252 OK
Colt Emerson3B 3511232 0.286 5250.370 33000 01 0.000 0.262 0.326 0.558 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33306 44 35 0.200

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Merrill KellyStarter 847.35.33 1.4385.931 5.14223396 5.1 3 2
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.20000221 1.2 2 0
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.02220019 1.0 0 2

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryce MillerStarter 315.32.35 1.0468.214 5.13331780 5.1 7 3
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 2320.55.27 1.41514.934 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 1612.60.71 0.9528.612 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 2722.42.01 1.3848.822 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 4-3


Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds

ATL 40-20 (5.27 RPG / 3.45 RA)
6 - 1
CIN 30-28 (4.41 RPG / 4.97 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 6-1 TARGET: ATL 5 - 1 CIN (ATL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
ATL120200010610
CIN10000000013

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.245
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-73.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.321
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-150.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ATL Season Quality

Record40-19
Win%0.678
Run Diff111
RD/Game1.881

CIN Season Quality

Record29-28
Win%0.509
Run Diff-34
RD/Game-0.596

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.7316; margin adjustment: -1.1473; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 192731172 0.235 18780.359 54213 10 0.500 0.266 0.407 0.585 OK
Michael Harris IICF 200784234 0.298 531360.321 55110 01 0.200 0.313 0.335 0.569 OK
Matt Olson1B 249973264 0.271 692000.355 55100 01 0.200 0.293 0.368 0.579 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 245962267 0.278 391300.336 55000 04 0.000 0.312 0.360 0.532 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 216832211 0.254 121200.308 53110 10 0.333 0.240 0.287 0.359 OK
Austin Riley3B 236897197 0.220 311290.293 55211 01 0.400 0.196 0.259 0.329 OK
Jorge MateoDH 7524490 0.369 7280.419 43110 10 0.333 0.277 0.340 0.435 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 4716917 0.101 0100.196 44100 02 0.250 0.136 0.219 0.170 OK
Chadwick TrompC 205415 0.278 070.273 43112 10 0.333 0.156 0.167 0.272 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423710 66 49 0.270

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Blake DunnCF 5423374 0.318 5140.384 44100 02 0.250 0.236 0.291 0.317 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 2451003294 0.293 651930.362 43000 10 0.000 0.226 0.284 0.433 OK
JJ BledayLF 114436122 0.280 331010.374 44111 00 0.250 0.249 0.348 0.523 OK
Sal Stewart3B 240898223 0.248 491600.358 44000 01 0.000 0.241 0.345 0.408 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 120441103 0.234 10510.310 44000 02 0.000 0.190 0.288 0.291 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 130438128 0.292 36930.384 33100 00 0.333 0.220 0.343 0.447 OK
Spencer Steer2B 209772204 0.264 30870.338 32000 10 0.000 0.233 0.299 0.365 OK
Will BensonRF 9024244 0.182 5100.300 33000 01 0.000 0.124 0.221 0.207 OK
P.J. HigginsC 184913 0.265 050.291 33000 02 0.000 0.220 0.265 0.277 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32303 11 28 0.100

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer StriderStarter 525.33.56 1.18611.432 5.23112690 5.2 6 1
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1717.21.05 0.87211.021 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 2524.40.74 0.8618.122 1.0000003 1.0 0 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 2825.11.43 0.67712.234 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 2823.83.40 1.26110.628 0.10000112 0.1 1 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick LodoloStarter 420.35.76 1.4298.018 5.06551490 5.0 4 5
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 2321.33.80 1.2689.322 1.02000119 1.0 1 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 2821.14.69 1.80111.126 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 98.25.49 1.2207.77 1.01001220 1.0 2 0
Sam MollMiddle Reliever 2620.13.13 1.24411.626 1.01112118 1.0 1 1
Caleb FergusonMiddle Reliever 22.30.00 0.43515.74 0.00000017 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-1


Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

BOS 25-33 (3.98 RPG / 4.07 RA)
4 - 1
CLE 34-27 (4.08 RPG / 4.07 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 4-1 TARGET: BOS 3 - 1 CLE (BOS) Confidence: 56.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
BOS00130000049
CLE00000010014

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.212
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-112.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.368
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-116.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record24-33
Win%0.421
Run Diff-10
RD/Game-0.175

CLE Season Quality

Record34-26
Win%0.567
Run Diff6
RD/Game0.100

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4939; margin adjustment: 0.2074; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranCF 222927200 0.216 371350.286 55000 01 0.000 0.223 0.273 0.390 OK
Mickey Gasper1B 4817159 0.345 090.388 55311 01 0.600 0.294 0.342 0.376 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 232915257 0.281 26980.347 55000 01 0.000 0.249 0.312 0.397 OK
Masataka YoshidaLF 11337397 0.260 4270.347 43110 10 0.333 0.188 0.268 0.292 OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B 7020669 0.335 4340.422 44100 01 0.250 0.319 0.418 0.392 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 170584110 0.188 5720.266 43000 11 0.000 0.227 0.274 0.351 OK
Marcelo MayerSS 162542117 0.216 7460.277 44112 02 0.250 0.199 0.253 0.257 OK
Connor WongDH 6820950 0.239 0320.329 44311 00 0.750 0.169 0.249 0.287 OK
Carlos NarváezC 11536774 0.202 7110.285 43000 11 0.000 0.175 0.247 0.273 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39369 44 38 0.250

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Travis Bazzana2B 114414125 0.302 12480.414 44000 01 0.000 0.309 0.395 0.491 OK
José Ramírez3B 252933219 0.235 361250.351 42100 20 0.500 0.225 0.349 0.379 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 216838215 0.257 321470.333 43000 10 0.000 0.272 0.339 0.420 OK
Rhys HoskinsDH 15247496 0.203 22820.343 44000 02 0.000 0.217 0.339 0.470 OK
David FryLF 8725265 0.258 10280.348 43000 11 0.000 0.227 0.308 0.347 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 169604129 0.214 16580.295 44000 00 0.000 0.229 0.308 0.337 OK
Stuart FairchildCF 120 0.000 000.000 43200 10 0.667 0.119 0.134 0.191
Austin HedgesC 8326162 0.238 5170.312 44000 02 0.000 0.202 0.280 0.314 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 205687205 0.298 141040.377 44111 01 0.250 0.272 0.334 0.396 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36314 11 57 0.129

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ranger SuarezStarter 1052.53.09 1.1058.147 5.220045105 5.2 5 0
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1817.20.52 0.87212.023 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 118.64.19 1.51214.714 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Jovani MoránMiddle Reliever 1827.13.32 1.10711.334 1.10000119 1.1 1 0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner BibeeStarter 1261.64.68 1.3478.055 5.17442496 5.1 4 4
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2727.22.65 1.10313.942 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 1612.04.50 1.5839.012 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 1612.22.21 1.47514.019 1.00001016 1.0 0 0
Colin HoldermanMiddle Reliever 1618.11.49 0.82911.423 0.20000117 0.2 1 0
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever 2414.02.57 2.0009.615 0.01000012 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 4-1


Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHC 32-27 (4.8 RPG / 4.41 RA)
3 - 6
STL 30-26 (4.32 RPG / 4.57 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 6-3 TARGET: CHC 4 - 5 STL (STL) Confidence: 56.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CHC00200001036
STL30120000x68

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.103
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-162.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.151
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-118.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CHC Season Quality

Record32-27
Win%0.542
Run Diff23
RD/Game0.390

STL Season Quality

Record30-26
Win%0.536
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.250

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6498; margin adjustment: -0.2729; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 2561080278 0.257 211620.342 44210 00 0.500 0.246 0.321 0.339 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 235864210 0.243 271090.337 44000 02 0.000 0.260 0.336 0.419 OK
Alex Bregman3B 2561058277 0.262 17810.350 42112 20 0.500 0.254 0.326 0.337 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 183710183 0.258 32880.349 44111 01 0.250 0.276 0.344 0.409 OK
Ian HappLF 240941227 0.241 641510.361 44000 01 0.000 0.288 0.380 0.585 OK
Carson KellyC 150552174 0.315 6630.393 44000 01 0.000 0.306 0.363 0.389 OK
Michael Busch1B 249919218 0.237 301570.382 44000 00 0.000 0.237 0.383 0.376 OK
Kevin AlcántaraDH 330 0.000 000.000 44100 00 0.250 0.099 0.115 0.162
Dansby SwansonSS 215747150 0.201 331170.307 33100 01 0.333 0.188 0.311 0.322 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 33 26 0.182

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 245961228 0.237 421170.359 43111 11 0.333 0.245 0.324 0.399 OK
Iván HerreraDH 245931241 0.259 281160.385 44110 01 0.250 0.248 0.348 0.401 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 226882281 0.319 691980.385 44311 00 0.750 0.290 0.351 0.509 OK
Nelson VelázquezLF 132 0.667 130.750 44000 00 0.000 0.271 0.281 0.458 OK
Alec Burleson1B 230929259 0.279 311570.344 44113 00 0.250 0.239 0.297 0.380 OK
Masyn WinnSS 201774178 0.230 5880.297 43111 10 0.333 0.227 0.283 0.310 OK
José FerminCF 000 0.000 000.000 44000 00 0.000 0.233 0.304 0.384
Thomas Saggese3B 7524641 0.167 180.223 44110 02 0.250 0.185 0.255 0.305 OK
Pedro PagésC 127443102 0.230 16360.271 32000 11 0.000 0.230 0.260 0.364 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35328 66 35 0.250

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jordan WicksStarter 14.117.56 2.43911.05 4.18663391 4.1 3 6
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 1310.52.57 1.61910.312 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 1410.82.50 1.38912.515 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 2522.12.85 1.49312.631 0.2000002 0.2 0 0
Hoby MilnerMiddle Reliever 2620.93.01 1.2445.212 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matthew LiberatoreStarter 1155.54.86 1.6048.653 4.26331486 4.2 4 3
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2523.73.42 1.05510.327 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2622.03.27 1.40910.225 1.20001119 1.2 1 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 2419.43.71 1.2898.418 1.20000121 1.2 1 0

Game Summary

STL wins 6-3


Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox

DET 22-38 (3.72 RPG / 4.37 RA)
3 - 5
CHW 32-27 (4.66 RPG / 4.53 RA)
WINNER: CHW wins 5-3 TARGET: DET 4 - 5 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 53.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
DET00011000139
CHW01200200x57

DET Recent Form

Win%0.259
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-131.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.291
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-63.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

DET Season Quality

Record22-37
Win%0.373
Run Diff-38
RD/Game-0.644

CHW Season Quality

Record31-27
Win%0.534
Run Diff7
RD/Game0.121

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0072; margin adjustment: 0.423; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Colt Keith3B 164531152 0.286 0230.334 54111 12 0.250 0.244 0.331 0.326 OK
Kevin McGonigleSS 241925276 0.298 141070.397 55100 00 0.200 0.245 0.330 0.363 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 217754157 0.208 32800.314 54100 10 0.250 0.202 0.289 0.383 OK
Kerry CarpenterDH 11737281 0.218 22640.299 54112 01 0.250 0.217 0.280 0.395 OK
Riley GreeneLF 236860266 0.309 171110.406 54100 11 0.250 0.281 0.361 0.399 OK
Matt VierlingCF 160583119 0.204 15820.277 44100 01 0.250 0.148 0.221 0.257 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 13848185 0.177 12350.236 43000 13 0.000 0.208 0.274 0.432 OK
Zach McKinstry2B 11737156 0.151 5360.231 44100 00 0.250 0.139 0.275 0.203 OK
Jake RogersC 5516122 0.137 0140.223 43210 10 0.667 0.143 0.246 0.242 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41359 33 58 0.257

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 150529138 0.261 5590.372 43000 10 0.000 0.273 0.323 0.367 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 240888205 0.231 561440.363 44112 00 0.250 0.230 0.357 0.452 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 173642161 0.251 151010.290 44110 00 0.250 0.258 0.301 0.428 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 231871207 0.238 581530.333 44111 01 0.250 0.272 0.333 0.503 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 230889234 0.263 24860.337 44112 01 0.250 0.246 0.330 0.382 OK
Marco Gonzales1B 000 0.000 000.000 44210 02 0.500 0.266 0.344 0.454
Tristan PetersCF 150458132 0.288 8490.352 33000 01 0.000 0.286 0.343 0.408 OK
Drew RomoC 6320738 0.184 18370.307 32000 11 0.000 0.147 0.251 0.359 OK
Rikuu NishidaRF 11358 0.229 020.229 33100 01 0.333 0.196 0.207 0.266 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33317 55 27 0.226

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Keider MonteroStarter 1052.94.25 1.1156.639 5.25332598 5.2 5 3
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2524.11.49 1.5775.615 1.20000024 1.2 0 0
Will VestMiddle Reliever 1814.98.46 1.67810.918 0.22220218 0.2 2 2

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sean BurkeStarter 1158.63.99 1.1778.354 6.151123103 6.1 3 1
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 0.01111016 0.0 0 1
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.01001320 1.0 3 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 2420.91.72 1.4839.923 1.00000215 1.0 2 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 0.22111031 0.2 0 1

Game Summary

CHW wins 5-3


Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers

KC 22-37 (3.75 RPG / 4.75 RA)
2 - 3
TEX 28-31 (4.02 RPG / 3.9 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 3-2 TARGET: KC 2 - 3 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 52.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
KC00000000228
TEX20000100x35

KC Recent Form

Win%0.111
Avg Runs0.7
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-182.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.250
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-109.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

KC Season Quality

Record22-36
Win%0.379
Run Diff-56
RD/Game-0.966

TEX Season Quality

Record27-31
Win%0.466
Run Diff4
RD/Game0.069

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.1638; margin adjustment: 0.4888; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenDH 187642150 0.234 241010.321 55100 01 0.200 0.211 0.286 0.372 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 245983283 0.288 401120.355 54000 11 0.000 0.225 0.290 0.403 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 229860169 0.197 231070.295 55100 01 0.200 0.203 0.299 0.316 OK
Salvador PerezC 224863192 0.222 421110.275 42100 21 0.500 0.211 0.254 0.361 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 181633139 0.220 18400.293 44000 00 0.000 0.157 0.216 0.270 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 180592133 0.225 11710.352 44111 01 0.250 0.204 0.314 0.302 OK
Michael Massey2B 11536183 0.230 10460.246 44200 01 0.500 0.165 0.194 0.318 OK
Nick Loftin3B 7120944 0.211 0470.316 43200 10 0.667 0.178 0.254 0.282 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 153501132 0.263 11420.314 43011 02 0.000 0.205 0.240 0.306 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39348 22 48 0.235

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 159475124 0.261 25630.363 43000 11 0.000 0.205 0.304 0.442 OK
Josh Jung3B 209811248 0.306 27930.364 44000 02 0.000 0.326 0.382 0.571 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 237941248 0.264 29920.346 44112 00 0.250 0.238 0.298 0.401 OK
Jake Burger1B 217840200 0.238 381480.288 43000 11 0.000 0.238 0.278 0.395 OK
Ezequiel DuranSS 166580176 0.303 141070.359 44210 01 0.500 0.265 0.323 0.404 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 9025160 0.239 0220.380 43111 11 0.333 0.214 0.303 0.268 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 9231358 0.185 11330.274 33100 01 0.333 0.134 0.233 0.232 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 9283 0.107 130.219 32000 10 0.000 0.114 0.200 0.197 OK
Michael HelmanCF 13366 0.167 000.231 33000 02 0.000 0.201 0.260 0.338 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33295 33 49 0.172

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael WachaStarter 1170.12.70 1.0277.760 6.243338108 6.2 8 3
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 2220.45.29 1.7657.918 0.10000118 0.1 1 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 2320.32.22 1.13312.027 1.01001018 1.0 0 0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack LeiterStarter 1158.84.90 1.4129.864 5.241126105 5.2 6 1
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 1923.61.14 0.4668.823 1.11000227 1.1 2 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 2123.51.91 0.8515.715 1.10001021 1.1 0 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 2620.83.89 1.7318.720 0.23111021 0.2 0 1

Game Summary

TEX wins 3-2


Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays

LAA 23-37 (4.25 RPG / 5.1 RA)
1 - 2
TB 36-20 (4.68 RPG / 4.34 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 2-1 TARGET: LAA 1 - 2 TB (TB) Confidence: 57.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
LAA00000100017
TB01001000x26

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.179
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-155.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TB Recent Form

Win%0.278
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-92.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAA Season Quality

Record23-36
Win%0.390
Run Diff-48
RD/Game-0.814

TB Season Quality

Record35-20
Win%0.636
Run Diff16
RD/Game0.291

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.4743; margin adjustment: 0.6192; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 2591022246 0.241 451260.351 53100 10 0.333 0.260 0.361 0.452 OK
Mike TroutCF 252890224 0.252 631480.422 54000 11 0.000 0.286 0.461 0.584 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 124462114 0.247 13980.312 44000 00 0.000 0.248 0.312 0.402 OK
Jorge SolerDH 221834182 0.218 361350.304 44000 01 0.000 0.216 0.286 0.356 OK
Jo AdellRF 236929226 0.243 331320.291 43200 01 0.667 0.224 0.245 0.392 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 159548155 0.283 27630.355 44211 01 0.500 0.256 0.291 0.431 OK
Jose SiriLF 13287 0.250 120.250 44200 01 0.500 0.219 0.231 0.428 OK
Logan O'HoppeC 12341793 0.223 4460.319 44000 00 0.000 0.203 0.280 0.278 OK
Nick Madrigal3B 142 0.500 000.500 44000 01 0.000 0.161 0.172 0.229 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 11 26 0.206

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 220862274 0.318 331550.397 44100 00 0.250 0.302 0.395 0.569 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 229852248 0.291 431910.386 43000 10 0.000 0.358 0.462 0.563 OK
Richie Palacios2B 116359100 0.279 4580.385 44100 01 0.250 0.217 0.309 0.289 OK
Junior Caminero3B 234922246 0.267 571280.364 43100 12 0.333 0.263 0.364 0.451 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 223926265 0.286 0440.322 44211 00 0.500 0.227 0.283 0.280 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 134812 0.250 6120.308 44100 01 0.250 0.244 0.314 0.355 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 184686130 0.190 13720.263 44000 00 0.000 0.197 0.261 0.284 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 7319349 0.254 1140.319 32000 10 0.000 0.216 0.274 0.270 OK
Taylor WallsSS 14648897 0.199 0540.301 31011 10 0.000 0.190 0.279 0.274 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34296 22 44 0.207

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack KochanowiczStarter 1159.75.13 1.4246.845 5.15224298 5.1 2 2
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 86.44.22 1.25014.110 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 2124.62.56 1.26010.629 1.1100025 1.1 2 0
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 2123.16.62 1.55812.131 0.00000018 0.0 0 0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane McClanahanStarter 1048.62.59 1.0709.350 5.26111593 5.2 5 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 2522.42.41 1.11611.228 1.01000017 1.0 0 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 2424.83.63 1.29011.632 1.10000013 1.1 0 0
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 2521.73.32 0.9227.518 1.00001117 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

TB wins 2-1


Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

MIA 26-34 (4.17 RPG / 4.65 RA)
3 - 1
NYM 26-33 (4.05 RPG / 4.27 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 3-1 TARGET: MIA 2 - 1 NYM (MIA) Confidence: 56.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIA10000100139
NYM00001000015

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.304
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-128.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.385
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-119.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIA Season Quality

Record26-33
Win%0.441
Run Diff-20
RD/Game-0.339

NYM Season Quality

Record25-33
Win%0.431
Run Diff-22
RD/Game-0.379

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0548; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 240911294 0.323 26850.408 55211 01 0.400 0.356 0.443 0.539 OK
Liam HicksDH 205734207 0.282 471980.357 55210 02 0.400 0.255 0.334 0.422 OK
Otto LopezSS 234942326 0.346 191070.376 55100 01 0.200 0.348 0.371 0.469 OK
Kyle StowersLF 141532111 0.209 12420.301 43000 12 0.000 0.222 0.293 0.347 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 239885172 0.194 13640.326 43000 12 0.000 0.197 0.298 0.304 OK
Connor Norby1B 186629140 0.223 18620.331 44100 01 0.250 0.193 0.275 0.306 OK
Owen CaissieRF 150475110 0.232 12950.284 44000 03 0.000 0.246 0.286 0.413 OK
Joe MackC 6320743 0.208 0240.255 43100 10 0.333 0.192 0.235 0.258 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 122420121 0.288 4790.327 44212 01 0.500 0.278 0.311 0.410 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39369 33 313 0.250

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 202772204 0.264 11960.333 44000 00 0.000 0.272 0.322 0.365 OK
Bo BichetteSS 2441011230 0.227 241310.275 44100 00 0.250 0.203 0.273 0.285 OK
Juan SotoLF 166627190 0.303 451040.401 44100 01 0.250 0.309 0.400 0.606 OK
Jared YoungDH 277727 0.351 150.390 43000 11 0.000 0.202 0.259 0.351 OK
Mark Vientos1B 179668152 0.228 25980.268 44111 00 0.250 0.161 0.192 0.298 OK
A.J. EwingCF 6221356 0.263 4220.375 43000 01 0.000 0.230 0.329 0.328 OK
Brett Baty3B 182652160 0.245 14900.311 44100 01 0.250 0.208 0.272 0.326 OK
Marcus Semien2B 222819191 0.233 19910.281 33100 00 0.333 0.212 0.272 0.319 OK
Luis TorrensC 9628855 0.191 0310.251 33000 01 0.000 0.164 0.203 0.252 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 11 15 0.156

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
John KingStarter 2618.92.38 0.8478.618 5.03001376 5.0 3 0
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 1613.48.06 1.49314.121 1.11110220 1.1 2 1
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 2318.63.87 1.12911.624 1.1100008 1.1 0 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 2018.34.43 1.31110.822 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nolan McLeanStarter 1159.74.52 1.12211.375 5.15113896 5.1 8 1
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 2117.65.11 1.53414.829 1.02110019 1.0 0 1
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 2322.83.16 1.1849.524 1.00000218 1.0 2 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 2417.71.53 1.46912.725 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever 2524.12.24 1.1629.024 0.22110119 0.2 1 1

Game Summary

MIA wins 3-1


Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros

MIL 35-21 (4.79 RPG / 3.46 RA)
5 - 2
HOU 27-34 (4.44 RPG / 4.98 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 5-2 TARGET: MIL 4 - 1 HOU (MIL) Confidence: 60.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIL101300000510
HOU00100001026

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.353
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-69.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.404
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-152.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record34-21
Win%0.618
Run Diff72
RD/Game1.309

HOU Season Quality

Record27-33
Win%0.450
Run Diff-31
RD/Game-0.517

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.078; margin adjustment: -0.8728; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Christian YelichDH 99383111 0.290 15590.352 55100 02 0.200 0.276 0.338 0.458 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 167580141 0.243 71060.355 53210 11 0.667 0.261 0.362 0.440 OK
Brice Turang2B 228852244 0.286 341500.407 54310 00 0.750 0.232 0.360 0.394 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 6221572 0.335 4330.414 54100 00 0.250 0.348 0.396 0.541 OK
Jake BauersLF 181683196 0.287 341280.358 54113 11 0.250 0.262 0.326 0.459 OK
Gary SánchezC 11336673 0.199 19570.362 54011 10 0.000 0.216 0.365 0.386 OK
Sal FrelickRF 186675150 0.222 14660.290 55111 02 0.200 0.216 0.282 0.313 OK
David Hamilton3B 143458107 0.234 1320.325 55100 01 0.200 0.198 0.275 0.282 OK
Joey OrtizSS 13141483 0.200 4390.293 43000 11 0.000 0.200 0.287 0.251 OK
TEAM TOTALS 443710 55 48 0.270

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 8937094 0.254 10280.308 44212 00 0.500 0.271 0.300 0.473 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 247915302 0.330 981840.445 42000 20 0.000 0.279 0.399 0.594 OK
Christian Walker1B 232881243 0.276 671840.351 44000 01 0.000 0.225 0.299 0.455 OK
Taylor TrammellLF 4515655 0.353 0240.399 44000 00 0.000 0.237 0.282 0.389 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 212792190 0.240 261030.336 44000 01 0.000 0.220 0.305 0.424 OK
Cam SmithRF 215753166 0.220 20880.313 44000 02 0.000 0.245 0.316 0.385 OK
Jake MeyersCF 6725557 0.224 9250.294 44100 00 0.250 0.202 0.269 0.318 OK
Nick Allen2B 5014147 0.333 4190.403 44100 01 0.250 0.181 0.240 0.254 OK
Christian VázquezC 119395107 0.271 16660.329 33210 00 0.667 0.224 0.277 0.352 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 22 25 0.182

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob MisiorowskiStarter 1163.31.85 0.83714.2100 6.03111590 6.0 5 1
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 2218.74.33 1.33710.622 1.00000017 1.0 0 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 2020.02.70 1.00011.225 1.02111023 1.0 0 1
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 2632.52.22 1.41514.151 1.0100005 1.0 0 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tatsuya ImaiStarter 621.76.64 1.6139.523 4.06444494 4.0 4 4
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 2221.63.33 1.5287.919 1.00000121 1.0 1 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 2116.07.88 2.31212.923 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Nate PearsonMiddle Reliever 32.20.00 1.3648.22 1.01000217 1.0 2 0
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 2219.64.13 1.22410.122 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Steven OkertMiddle Reliever 2821.14.27 1.1859.422 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-2


Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MIN 27-33 (4.58 RPG / 4.93 RA)
1 - 2
PIT 32-28 (5.02 RPG / 4.5 RA)
WINNER: PIT wins 2-1 TARGET: MIN 1 - 2 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 52.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIN00001000017
PIT00100001x26

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.281
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-128.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.264
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-103.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record27-32
Win%0.458
Run Diff-15
RD/Game-0.254

PIT Season Quality

Record31-28
Win%0.525
Run Diff25
RD/Game0.424

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7797; margin adjustment: 0.3275; applied: True

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Austin MartinRF 175639186 0.291 10740.391 54111 11 0.250 0.231 0.319 0.330 OK
Brooks Lee3B 209794198 0.249 241210.307 55000 00 0.000 0.220 0.265 0.353 OK
Kody ClemensCF 169616142 0.231 22700.317 43000 01 0.000 0.186 0.246 0.393 OK
Josh BellDH 218828182 0.220 211280.283 44200 01 0.500 0.217 0.269 0.347 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 157549150 0.273 9560.377 43100 10 0.333 0.191 0.286 0.315 OK
Orlando Arcia1B 217330 0.411 040.442 44100 00 0.250 0.210 0.262 0.301 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 211786191 0.243 5810.324 44000 02 0.000 0.263 0.323 0.369 OK
Tristan GraySS 9631672 0.228 13620.277 44100 02 0.250 0.245 0.283 0.387 OK
Alex JacksonC 10346 0.176 000.176 43100 11 0.333 0.224 0.236 0.377 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 11 38 0.206

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Spencer Horwitz1B 191636185 0.291 221060.407 44100 01 0.250 0.276 0.406 0.456 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 222878238 0.271 651780.363 44111 00 0.250 0.238 0.320 0.480 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 241877247 0.282 231550.406 43111 10 0.333 0.343 0.464 0.640 OK
Oneil CruzCF 2461048280 0.267 541740.333 43000 10 0.000 0.239 0.317 0.465 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 181704205 0.291 291300.367 44000 03 0.000 0.262 0.347 0.422 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 200804247 0.307 0960.359 33100 01 0.333 0.278 0.317 0.336 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 192774147 0.190 251020.278 33000 02 0.000 0.202 0.272 0.313 OK
Jared TrioloSS 7627160 0.221 090.270 33200 00 0.667 0.207 0.240 0.252 OK
Henry DavisC 12642961 0.142 15400.237 33000 00 0.000 0.140 0.209 0.266 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32306 22 27 0.200

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zebby MatthewsStarter 319.02.37 0.8428.117 6.05112799 6.0 7 1
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 2417.03.71 1.8249.017 1.20000015 1.2 0 0
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 128.71.03 1.03413.413 0.11110016 0.1 0 1

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braxton AshcraftStarter 1166.82.83 1.0789.470 6.251116114 6.2 6 1
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2726.52.04 0.79210.932 1.01000118 1.0 1 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 2218.83.83 1.43614.430 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever 2629.35.22 1.57011.437 0.01002018 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 2-1


New York Yankees @ Oakland Athletics

NYY 35-23 (5.03 RPG / 3.43 RA)
5 - 1
OAK 28-30 (4.21 RPG / 4.71 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 5-1 TARGET: NYY 6 - 1 OAK (NYY) Confidence: 64.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
NYY00005000057
OAK00001000018

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.278
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-74.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.255
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-134.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

NYY Season Quality

Record35-22
Win%0.614
Run Diff95
RD/Game1.667

OAK Season Quality

Record27-30
Win%0.474
Run Diff-31
RD/Game-0.544

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.4211; margin adjustment: -1.0168; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Paul Goldschmidt1B 110411116 0.282 24650.367 44111 01 0.250 0.294 0.372 0.530 OK
Ben RiceDH 214812244 0.300 701680.403 43000 11 0.000 0.338 0.435 0.680 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 246889230 0.259 741580.393 44113 01 0.250 0.236 0.364 0.471 OK
Cody BellingerLF 236864235 0.272 361600.379 44000 01 0.000 0.243 0.354 0.443 OK
José Caballero3B 165581160 0.275 18620.327 44110 01 0.250 0.275 0.306 0.400 OK
Trent GrishamCF 211773163 0.211 321310.328 44000 01 0.000 0.252 0.370 0.437 OK
Anthony VolpeSS 4314444 0.306 6350.451 43210 10 0.667 0.265 0.409 0.475 OK
Max Schuemann2B 205216 0.308 040.471 44100 01 0.250 0.212 0.398 0.371 OK
Austin WellsC 15350097 0.194 17320.310 44111 01 0.250 0.198 0.303 0.297 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 55 28 0.206

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CortesRF 151502177 0.353 24750.436 55100 02 0.200 0.245 0.353 0.392 OK
Brent RookerDH 161616123 0.200 361270.291 54100 12 0.250 0.173 0.265 0.308 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 250909259 0.285 401740.438 44200 01 0.500 0.247 0.378 0.455 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 224866188 0.217 271100.305 43100 10 0.333 0.258 0.359 0.506 OK
Jonah HeimC 2910819 0.176 000.239 44111 01 0.250 0.208 0.297 0.363 OK
Lawrence ButlerCF 16254997 0.177 13550.277 44000 01 0.000 0.147 0.236 0.229 OK
Zack Gelof3B 136506129 0.255 26710.307 43000 10 0.000 0.223 0.265 0.380 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 189661177 0.268 6580.337 44100 01 0.250 0.207 0.271 0.283 OK
Darell HernaizSS 11335697 0.272 4290.349 44100 00 0.250 0.203 0.277 0.252 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 11 38 0.229

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Will WarrenStarter 1156.03.70 1.21410.465 5.16113597 5.1 5 1
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2321.65.00 1.66711.728 1.00000019 1.0 0 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 2716.92.66 1.77516.030 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2516.91.60 1.1245.911 0.20000111 0.2 1 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 2821.42.52 1.72912.229 1.02000114 1.0 1 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob LopezStarter 1146.85.96 1.8386.735 4.16552684 4.1 6 5
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 3021.63.33 2.03712.931 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 2521.16.40 1.65910.725 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 2622.61.99 0.9738.822 1.20000221 1.2 2 0
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 2319.73.65 1.4215.913 1.01000017 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-1


Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

PHI 30-28 (3.95 RPG / 4.26 RA)
2 - 5
LAD 37-21 (5.26 RPG / 3.17 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 5-2 TARGET: PHI 1 - 6 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 64.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
PHI00000001124
LAD01010300x511

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.179
Avg Runs0.6
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-144.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.304
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-68.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PHI Season Quality

Record29-28
Win%0.509
Run Diff-19
RD/Game-0.333

LAD Season Quality

Record37-20
Win%0.649
Run Diff122
RD/Game2.140

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.6842; margin adjustment: 1.1274; applied: True

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 241940232 0.247 981850.359 43000 11 0.000 0.244 0.326 0.529 OK
Trea TurnerSS 2421042241 0.231 34890.278 44111 00 0.250 0.209 0.250 0.389 OK
Bryce Harper1B 232845233 0.276 571480.382 44000 01 0.000 0.218 0.330 0.425 OK
Brandon MarshLF 194723244 0.337 231110.368 44000 00 0.000 0.306 0.337 0.501 OK
Alec Bohm3B 211794171 0.215 181000.274 44200 00 0.500 0.200 0.248 0.313 OK
Bryson Stott2B 187673147 0.218 20980.270 43000 12 0.000 0.172 0.216 0.291 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 133465116 0.249 9410.325 33000 01 0.000 0.223 0.270 0.331 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 215767151 0.197 12680.284 33000 02 0.000 0.147 0.218 0.231 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 175598142 0.237 8440.303 33111 00 0.333 0.203 0.255 0.314 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 22 27 0.129

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 239922256 0.278 411520.405 54211 11 0.500 0.289 0.390 0.572 OK
Andy PagesCF 228870273 0.314 582210.362 55100 02 0.200 0.321 0.361 0.613 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 229863233 0.270 311200.371 55111 01 0.200 0.302 0.385 0.563 OK
Mookie BettsSS 9339973 0.183 29720.225 44100 00 0.250 0.210 0.241 0.421 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 229883223 0.253 211190.346 44000 01 0.000 0.236 0.320 0.375 OK
Max Muncy3B 193685179 0.261 53810.363 43111 10 0.333 0.230 0.320 0.464 OK
Ryan WardLF 62610 0.385 050.385 43211 10 0.667 0.242 0.255 0.316 OK
Dalton RushingC 9331689 0.282 31680.364 43100 10 0.333 0.248 0.317 0.465 OK
Alex Freeland2B 11737991 0.240 8330.318 44211 02 0.500 0.202 0.277 0.300 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393511 55 47 0.314

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew PainterStarter 1048.65.56 1.5027.440 5.04114591 5.0 5 1
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 1817.21.57 0.98813.626 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 2523.53.83 1.19110.728 1.06330228 1.0 2 3
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 2514.97.25 2.34915.726 0.00110016 0.0 0 1
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 2419.02.84 1.26310.923 1.01000016 1.0 0 0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Yoshinobu YamamotoStarter 1063.33.13 0.9958.459 6.210016103 6.2 6 0
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 1818.01.00 0.77810.521 1.21111028 1.2 0 1
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 2516.42.74 1.15914.827 0.22110114 0.2 1 1

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-2


San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals

SD 32-26 (3.91 RPG / 4.02 RA)
4 - 7
WAS 31-29 (5.4 RPG / 5.38 RA)
WINNER: WAS wins 7-4 TARGET: SD 4 - 5 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 56.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SD40000000044
WAS04030000x711

SD Recent Form

Win%0.185
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-124.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.271
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-131.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

SD Season Quality

Record32-25
Win%0.561
Run Diff-4
RD/Game-0.070

WAS Season Quality

Record30-29
Win%0.508
Run Diff-1
RD/Game-0.017

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0262; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 229882233 0.264 1700.341 43010 10 0.000 0.294 0.355 0.372 OK
Gavin SheetsDH 171580146 0.252 32850.334 44110 02 0.250 0.229 0.313 0.409 OK
Manny Machado3B 219791139 0.176 401220.269 44210 01 0.500 0.184 0.272 0.374 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 211783197 0.252 301040.320 44000 01 0.000 0.237 0.301 0.366 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 218851173 0.203 18890.279 43000 13 0.000 0.225 0.294 0.381 OK
Ty France1B 101347102 0.294 20600.327 44114 01 0.250 0.254 0.284 0.465 OK
Nick CastellanosLF 11739672 0.182 11640.217 44000 01 0.000 0.144 0.180 0.242 OK
Sung-Mun Song2B 256313 0.206 0140.315 32000 11 0.000 0.140 0.257 0.228 OK
Freddy FerminC 10734348 0.140 0130.242 33000 00 0.000 0.124 0.221 0.184 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 44 310 0.129

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 2681034299 0.289 751920.431 54213 11 0.500 0.287 0.420 0.559 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 175653183 0.280 201210.300 43011 11 0.000 0.221 0.242 0.385 OK
Curtis Mead3B 146483125 0.259 33890.378 44212 00 0.500 0.222 0.333 0.449 OK
CJ AbramsSS 240911272 0.299 482060.390 44110 00 0.250 0.314 0.391 0.547 OK
Daylen LileLF 2481022260 0.254 321250.311 44000 01 0.000 0.223 0.279 0.358 OK
Jacob YoungCF 193728171 0.235 24910.288 44111 02 0.250 0.226 0.268 0.345 OK
Jose FernandezDH 000 0.000 000.000 44110 00 0.250 0.241 0.267 0.359
Jorbit Vivas2B 12035892 0.257 4210.345 44310 00 0.750 0.223 0.314 0.347 OK
Keibert RuizC 112394102 0.259 18910.275 44100 01 0.250 0.270 0.285 0.490 OK
TEAM TOTALS 373511 77 26 0.314

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Griffin CanningStarter 521.57.95 1.62810.024 4.110771389 4.1 3 7
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 2423.60.76 0.89018.749 1.00000111 1.0 1 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 2117.61.02 1.0805.110 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 2624.94.70 1.24512.735 0.20000113 0.2 1 0
Jeremiah EstradaMiddle Reliever 1917.03.18 1.11811.622 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zack LittellStarter 1152.45.32 1.4125.230 4.24443483 4.2 4 4
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 2317.85.06 1.91010.120 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 1413.52.67 1.3339.314 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 1713.22.73 2.12110.215 0.20000216 0.2 2 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1734.22.89 1.0828.231 1.10000122 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

WAS wins 7-4


San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

SF 23-36 (3.93 RPG / 4.75 RA)
6 - 2
COL 22-38 (4.18 RPG / 5.57 RA)
WINNER: SF wins 6-2 TARGET: SF 4 - 3 COL (SF) Confidence: 55.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SF020102001611
COL00000011029

SF Recent Form

Win%0.185
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-154.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.145
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-198.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

SF Season Quality

Record22-35
Win%0.386
Run Diff-56
RD/Game-0.982

COL Season Quality

Record21-37
Win%0.362
Run Diff-75
RD/Game-1.293

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3465; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Casey SchmittLF 196773237 0.307 511320.350 55211 00 0.400 0.259 0.282 0.506 OK
Rafael Devers1B 230894226 0.253 291240.299 55000 00 0.000 0.225 0.270 0.382 OK
Luis Arraez2B 227923311 0.337 10970.380 55111 02 0.200 0.346 0.379 0.445 OK
Willy AdamesSS 233979247 0.252 30870.285 55100 01 0.200 0.255 0.280 0.469 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 195767222 0.289 12730.335 44210 00 0.500 0.329 0.360 0.466 OK
Matt Chapman3B 229879198 0.225 5780.316 43000 12 0.000 0.212 0.295 0.307 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 5216731 0.186 460.275 44212 01 0.500 0.207 0.312 0.337 OK
Daniel SusacC 5419063 0.332 0370.385 44211 00 0.500 0.189 0.247 0.299 OK
Drew GilbertCF 11338094 0.247 9330.301 43111 10 0.333 0.251 0.288 0.433 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403811 66 26 0.289

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Willi CastroLF 172630164 0.260 8720.316 54000 10 0.000 0.254 0.300 0.343 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 137504124 0.246 10560.320 44100 01 0.250 0.219 0.250 0.295 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 216812228 0.281 301170.359 44200 01 0.500 0.260 0.359 0.409 OK
Hunter GoodmanDH 212841207 0.246 55900.312 44100 02 0.250 0.230 0.286 0.468 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 204772171 0.222 10810.269 44111 02 0.250 0.223 0.284 0.389 OK
Kyle Karros3B 181557124 0.223 9530.332 44100 01 0.250 0.229 0.323 0.448 OK
Jake McCarthyCF 139465120 0.258 9660.296 44000 02 0.000 0.258 0.292 0.410 OK
Braxton FulfordC 193810 0.263 360.378 44211 00 0.500 0.142 0.266 0.233 OK
Chad Stevens2B 15464 0.087 040.222 44100 01 0.250 0.144 0.261 0.206 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37369 22 110 0.250

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Robbie RayStarter 1156.84.75 1.4268.453 5.16110696 5.1 6 1
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 2321.54.60 1.34911.327 1.11111219 1.1 2 1
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 2524.52.57 0.9398.122 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 1814.05.14 1.64315.424 1.11000120 1.1 1 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner GordonStarter 832.15.89 1.4959.333 4.08330575 4.0 5 3
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1629.51.53 0.9497.926 1.11221024 1.1 0 2
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 2322.65.97 1.90311.529 1.00000121 1.0 1 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 2315.33.53 1.83013.523 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 2717.55.14 1.6008.717 1.22111031 1.2 0 1

Game Summary

SF wins 6-2


Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

TOR 29-31 (4.07 RPG / 4.18 RA)
3 - 2
BAL 28-32 (4.58 RPG / 5.22 RA)
WINNER: TOR wins 3-2 TARGET: TOR 3 - 1 BAL (TOR) Confidence: 56.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
TOR20010000037
BAL20000000023

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.241
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-109.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.179
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-154.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TOR Season Quality

Record29-30
Win%0.492
Run Diff-3
RD/Game-0.051

BAL Season Quality

Record27-32
Win%0.458
Run Diff-42
RD/Game-0.712

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7119; margin adjustment: -0.299; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nathan LukesLF 7124077 0.321 0340.365 54000 10 0.000 0.301 0.329 0.413 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.DH 227833247 0.297 12990.395 55000 01 0.000 0.302 0.395 0.395 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 214810221 0.273 24740.350 54100 11 0.250 0.245 0.321 0.399 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 225842185 0.220 491320.309 54100 12 0.250 0.210 0.278 0.432 OK
Ernie Clement2B 223893270 0.302 22890.324 54112 12 0.250 0.283 0.303 0.446 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 176595165 0.277 251050.320 44100 01 0.250 0.222 0.252 0.387 OK
Charles McAdoo1B 141 0.250 120.250 44210 00 0.500 0.236 0.246 0.396 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 196705161 0.228 251110.260 42111 20 0.500 0.216 0.236 0.417 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 10733490 0.269 17440.368 43000 10 0.000 0.241 0.363 0.382 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41347 33 77 0.206

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 253925243 0.263 9720.409 43000 11 0.000 0.276 0.425 0.373 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 2551090229 0.210 541360.265 44000 01 0.000 0.189 0.240 0.377 OK
Adley RutschmanDH 161629167 0.266 311110.337 44212 00 0.500 0.244 0.318 0.430 OK
Pete Alonso1B 245939226 0.241 411490.323 43000 12 0.000 0.234 0.307 0.414 OK
Samuel BasalloC 163594161 0.271 32880.330 43000 10 0.000 0.273 0.340 0.567 OK
Leody TaverasCF 162548152 0.277 9900.368 44000 03 0.000 0.220 0.305 0.339 OK
Colton CowserRF 11332065 0.203 8380.291 43000 12 0.000 0.216 0.294 0.316 OK
Blaze Alexander3B 131434118 0.272 4540.323 33110 01 0.333 0.267 0.306 0.415 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 289021 0.233 5190.299 33000 00 0.000 0.240 0.313 0.380 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34303 22 410 0.100

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer MilesStarter 1531.02.32 1.0979.332 5.01222574 5.0 5 2
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 2828.20.32 1.13513.442 1.11000220 1.1 2 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 2823.17.01 1.94817.545 1.01001120 1.0 1 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 2824.12.61 1.2456.016 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Braydon FisherMiddle Reliever 3028.02.89 1.10710.633 0.20001216 0.2 2 0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle BradishStarter 1157.43.92 1.4989.661 5.063335104 5.0 5 3
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2622.00.82 0.72711.528 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 2624.25.21 1.32211.531 1.00000017 1.0 0 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 2516.42.74 0.7938.816 1.11001124 1.1 1 0
Tyler WellsMiddle Reliever 2024.73.28 1.1749.526 0.20002120 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

TOR wins 3-2