| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ SEA | 3 - 5 | 3 - 4 | SEA | SEA | SEA wins 4-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| ATL @ CIN | 5 - 1 | 6 - 1 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 6-1 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| BOS @ CLE | 3 - 1 | 4 - 1 | BOS | BOS | BOS wins 4-1 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CHC @ STL | 4 - 5 | 3 - 6 | STL | STL | STL wins 6-3 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| DET @ CHW | 4 - 5 | 3 - 5 | CHW | CHW | CHW wins 5-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| KC @ TEX | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 | TEX | TEX | TEX wins 3-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| LAA @ TB | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 | TB | TB | TB wins 2-1 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| MIA @ NYM | 2 - 1 | 3 - 1 | MIA | MIA | MIA wins 3-1 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| MIL @ HOU | 4 - 1 | 5 - 2 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 5-2 | 61% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| MIN @ PIT | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 2-1 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| NYY @ OAK | 6 - 1 | 5 - 1 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 5-1 | 64% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| PHI @ LAD | 1 - 6 | 2 - 5 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 5-2 | 64% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| SD @ WAS | 4 - 5 | 4 - 7 | WAS | WAS | WAS wins 7-4 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| SF @ COL | 4 - 3 | 6 - 2 | SF | SF | SF wins 6-2 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| TOR @ BAL | 3 - 1 | 3 - 2 | TOR | TOR | TOR wins 3-2 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| SEA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | x | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.1185; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | DH | 225 | 956 | 265 | 0.277 | 40 | 146 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.315 | 0.435 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 224 | 829 | 247 | 0.298 | 32 | 128 | 0.398 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.342 | 0.463 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 219 | 772 | 174 | 0.225 | 10 | 80 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.354 | 0.393 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 195 | 675 | 188 | 0.279 | 29 | 115 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.365 | 0.435 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 70 | 245 | 67 | 0.273 | 0 | 28 | 0.341 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.193 | 0.272 | 0.304 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 2B | 199 | 807 | 250 | 0.310 | 32 | 155 | 0.335 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.298 | 0.427 | OK |
| Jose Fernandez | 1B | 147 | 532 | 146 | 0.274 | 12 | 58 | 0.307 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.236 | 0.262 | 0.353 | OK |
| Aramis Garcia | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.302 | 0.385 | |
| Tim Tawa | LF | 43 | 124 | 15 | 0.121 | 0 | 8 | 0.231 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.177 | 0.286 | 0.284 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 206 | 764 | 175 | 0.229 | 35 | 94 | 0.352 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.367 | 0.450 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 249 | 1019 | 265 | 0.260 | 48 | 131 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.265 | 0.309 | 0.525 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 231 | 923 | 246 | 0.267 | 22 | 108 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.324 | 0.350 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 241 | 891 | 273 | 0.306 | 24 | 110 | 0.391 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.275 | 0.336 | 0.427 | OK |
| Luke Raley | RF | 154 | 531 | 159 | 0.299 | 47 | 128 | 0.353 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.283 | 0.311 | 0.614 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 226 | 799 | 194 | 0.243 | 13 | 108 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.337 | 0.363 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 127 | 376 | 98 | 0.261 | 22 | 84 | 0.326 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.300 | 0.543 | OK |
| Jhonny Pereda | C | 31 | 98 | 14 | 0.143 | 1 | 1 | 0.257 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.180 | 0.278 | 0.252 | OK |
| Colt Emerson | 3B | 35 | 112 | 32 | 0.286 | 5 | 25 | 0.370 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.326 | 0.558 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Merrill Kelly | Starter | 8 | 47.3 | 5.33 | 1.438 | 5.9 | 31 | 5.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 96 | 5.1 | 3 | 2 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.476 | 8.6 | 2 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryce Miller | Starter | 3 | 15.3 | 2.35 | 1.046 | 8.2 | 14 | 5.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 80 | 5.1 | 7 | 3 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 23 | 20.5 | 5.27 | 1.415 | 14.9 | 34 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Brash | Middle Reliever | 16 | 12.6 | 0.71 | 0.952 | 8.6 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Middle Reliever | 27 | 22.4 | 2.01 | 1.384 | 8.8 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
SEA wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Quality edge: -2.7316; margin adjustment: -1.1473; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 192 | 731 | 172 | 0.235 | 18 | 78 | 0.359 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.266 | 0.407 | 0.585 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 200 | 784 | 234 | 0.298 | 53 | 136 | 0.321 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.313 | 0.335 | 0.569 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 249 | 973 | 264 | 0.271 | 69 | 200 | 0.355 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.293 | 0.368 | 0.579 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 245 | 962 | 267 | 0.278 | 39 | 130 | 0.336 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.312 | 0.360 | 0.532 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 216 | 832 | 211 | 0.254 | 12 | 120 | 0.308 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.240 | 0.287 | 0.359 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 236 | 897 | 197 | 0.220 | 31 | 129 | 0.293 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.196 | 0.259 | 0.329 | OK |
| Jorge Mateo | DH | 75 | 244 | 90 | 0.369 | 7 | 28 | 0.419 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.277 | 0.340 | 0.435 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 47 | 169 | 17 | 0.101 | 0 | 10 | 0.196 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.136 | 0.219 | 0.170 | OK |
| Chadwick Tromp | C | 20 | 54 | 15 | 0.278 | 0 | 7 | 0.273 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.156 | 0.167 | 0.272 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Blake Dunn | CF | 54 | 233 | 74 | 0.318 | 5 | 14 | 0.384 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.291 | 0.317 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 245 | 1003 | 294 | 0.293 | 65 | 193 | 0.362 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.284 | 0.433 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 114 | 436 | 122 | 0.280 | 33 | 101 | 0.374 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.348 | 0.523 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 3B | 240 | 898 | 223 | 0.248 | 49 | 160 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.345 | 0.408 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | DH | 120 | 441 | 103 | 0.234 | 10 | 51 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.288 | 0.291 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 130 | 438 | 128 | 0.292 | 36 | 93 | 0.384 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.220 | 0.343 | 0.447 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | 2B | 209 | 772 | 204 | 0.264 | 30 | 87 | 0.338 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.299 | 0.365 | OK |
| Will Benson | RF | 90 | 242 | 44 | 0.182 | 5 | 10 | 0.300 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.124 | 0.221 | 0.207 | OK |
| P.J. Higgins | C | 18 | 49 | 13 | 0.265 | 0 | 5 | 0.291 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.265 | 0.277 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Spencer Strider | Starter | 5 | 25.3 | 3.56 | 1.186 | 11.4 | 32 | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 90 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 17 | 17.2 | 1.05 | 0.872 | 11.0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 25 | 24.4 | 0.74 | 0.861 | 8.1 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 28 | 25.1 | 1.43 | 0.677 | 12.2 | 34 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Kinley | Middle Reliever | 28 | 23.8 | 3.40 | 1.261 | 10.6 | 28 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nick Lodolo | Starter | 4 | 20.3 | 5.76 | 1.429 | 8.0 | 18 | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 90 | 5.0 | 4 | 5 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 23 | 21.3 | 3.80 | 1.268 | 9.3 | 22 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 28 | 21.1 | 4.69 | 1.801 | 11.1 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever | 9 | 8.2 | 5.49 | 1.220 | 7.7 | 7 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sam Moll | Middle Reliever | 26 | 20.1 | 3.13 | 1.244 | 11.6 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Caleb Ferguson | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.3 | 0.00 | 0.435 | 15.7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
ATL wins 6-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Quality edge: 0.4939; margin adjustment: 0.2074; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jarren Duran | CF | 222 | 927 | 200 | 0.216 | 37 | 135 | 0.286 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.273 | 0.390 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | 1B | 48 | 171 | 59 | 0.345 | 0 | 9 | 0.388 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.294 | 0.342 | 0.376 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 232 | 915 | 257 | 0.281 | 26 | 98 | 0.347 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.312 | 0.397 | OK |
| Masataka Yoshida | LF | 113 | 373 | 97 | 0.260 | 4 | 27 | 0.347 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.188 | 0.268 | 0.292 | OK |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 2B | 70 | 206 | 69 | 0.335 | 4 | 34 | 0.422 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.319 | 0.418 | 0.392 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 170 | 584 | 110 | 0.188 | 5 | 72 | 0.266 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.274 | 0.351 | OK |
| Marcelo Mayer | SS | 162 | 542 | 117 | 0.216 | 7 | 46 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.253 | 0.257 | OK |
| Connor Wong | DH | 68 | 209 | 50 | 0.239 | 0 | 32 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.169 | 0.249 | 0.287 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 115 | 367 | 74 | 0.202 | 7 | 11 | 0.285 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.175 | 0.247 | 0.273 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 114 | 414 | 125 | 0.302 | 12 | 48 | 0.414 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.309 | 0.395 | 0.491 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 252 | 933 | 219 | 0.235 | 36 | 125 | 0.351 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.225 | 0.349 | 0.379 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 216 | 838 | 215 | 0.257 | 32 | 147 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.339 | 0.420 | OK |
| Rhys Hoskins | DH | 152 | 474 | 96 | 0.203 | 22 | 82 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.339 | 0.470 | OK |
| David Fry | LF | 87 | 252 | 65 | 0.258 | 10 | 28 | 0.348 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.308 | 0.347 | OK |
| Kyle Manzardo | 1B | 169 | 604 | 129 | 0.214 | 16 | 58 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.308 | 0.337 | OK |
| Stuart Fairchild | CF | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.119 | 0.134 | 0.191 | |
| Austin Hedges | C | 83 | 261 | 62 | 0.238 | 5 | 17 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.280 | 0.314 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 205 | 687 | 205 | 0.298 | 14 | 104 | 0.377 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.272 | 0.334 | 0.396 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ranger Suarez | Starter | 10 | 52.5 | 3.09 | 1.105 | 8.1 | 47 | 5.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 105 | 5.2 | 5 | 0 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.2 | 0.52 | 0.872 | 12.0 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 11 | 8.6 | 4.19 | 1.512 | 14.7 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jovani Morán | Middle Reliever | 18 | 27.1 | 3.32 | 1.107 | 11.3 | 34 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tanner Bibee | Starter | 12 | 61.6 | 4.68 | 1.347 | 8.0 | 55 | 5.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 96 | 5.1 | 4 | 4 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 27 | 27.2 | 2.65 | 1.103 | 13.9 | 42 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 16 | 12.0 | 4.50 | 1.583 | 9.0 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Shawn Armstrong | Middle Reliever | 16 | 12.2 | 2.21 | 1.475 | 14.0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colin Holderman | Middle Reliever | 16 | 18.1 | 1.49 | 0.829 | 11.4 | 23 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Herrin | Middle Reliever | 24 | 14.0 | 2.57 | 2.000 | 9.6 | 15 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
BOS wins 4-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| STL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 6 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.6498; margin adjustment: -0.2729; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 256 | 1080 | 278 | 0.257 | 21 | 162 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.321 | 0.339 | OK |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 235 | 864 | 210 | 0.243 | 27 | 109 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.336 | 0.419 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 256 | 1058 | 277 | 0.262 | 17 | 81 | 0.350 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.254 | 0.326 | 0.337 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 183 | 710 | 183 | 0.258 | 32 | 88 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.276 | 0.344 | 0.409 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 240 | 941 | 227 | 0.241 | 64 | 151 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.380 | 0.585 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 150 | 552 | 174 | 0.315 | 6 | 63 | 0.393 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.306 | 0.363 | 0.389 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 249 | 919 | 218 | 0.237 | 30 | 157 | 0.382 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.383 | 0.376 | OK |
| Kevin Alcántara | DH | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.099 | 0.115 | 0.162 | |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 215 | 747 | 150 | 0.201 | 33 | 117 | 0.307 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.188 | 0.311 | 0.322 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 245 | 961 | 228 | 0.237 | 42 | 117 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.245 | 0.324 | 0.399 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 245 | 931 | 241 | 0.259 | 28 | 116 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.348 | 0.401 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 226 | 882 | 281 | 0.319 | 69 | 198 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.290 | 0.351 | 0.509 | OK |
| Nelson Velázquez | LF | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.667 | 1 | 3 | 0.750 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.281 | 0.458 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 230 | 929 | 259 | 0.279 | 31 | 157 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.297 | 0.380 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 201 | 774 | 178 | 0.230 | 5 | 88 | 0.297 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.227 | 0.283 | 0.310 | OK |
| José Fermin | CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.304 | 0.384 | |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 75 | 246 | 41 | 0.167 | 1 | 8 | 0.223 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.185 | 0.255 | 0.305 | OK |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 127 | 443 | 102 | 0.230 | 16 | 36 | 0.271 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.260 | 0.364 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jordan Wicks | Starter | 1 | 4.1 | 17.56 | 2.439 | 11.0 | 5 | 4.1 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 91 | 4.1 | 3 | 6 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 13 | 10.5 | 2.57 | 1.619 | 10.3 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Thielbar | Middle Reliever | 14 | 10.8 | 2.50 | 1.389 | 12.5 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 25 | 22.1 | 2.85 | 1.493 | 12.6 | 31 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Hoby Milner | Middle Reliever | 26 | 20.9 | 3.01 | 1.244 | 5.2 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Matthew Liberatore | Starter | 11 | 55.5 | 4.86 | 1.604 | 8.6 | 53 | 4.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 86 | 4.2 | 4 | 3 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 25 | 23.7 | 3.42 | 1.055 | 10.3 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 26 | 22.0 | 3.27 | 1.409 | 10.2 | 25 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 24 | 19.4 | 3.71 | 1.289 | 8.4 | 18 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
STL wins 6-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| CHW | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: 1.0072; margin adjustment: 0.423; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Colt Keith | 3B | 164 | 531 | 152 | 0.286 | 0 | 23 | 0.334 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.331 | 0.326 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | SS | 241 | 925 | 276 | 0.298 | 14 | 107 | 0.397 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.245 | 0.330 | 0.363 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 217 | 754 | 157 | 0.208 | 32 | 80 | 0.314 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.289 | 0.383 | OK |
| Kerry Carpenter | DH | 117 | 372 | 81 | 0.218 | 22 | 64 | 0.299 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.217 | 0.280 | 0.395 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 236 | 860 | 266 | 0.309 | 17 | 111 | 0.406 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.281 | 0.361 | 0.399 | OK |
| Matt Vierling | CF | 160 | 583 | 119 | 0.204 | 15 | 82 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.148 | 0.221 | 0.257 | OK |
| Wenceel Pérez | RF | 138 | 481 | 85 | 0.177 | 12 | 35 | 0.236 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.274 | 0.432 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | 2B | 117 | 371 | 56 | 0.151 | 5 | 36 | 0.231 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.139 | 0.275 | 0.203 | OK |
| Jake Rogers | C | 55 | 161 | 22 | 0.137 | 0 | 14 | 0.223 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.143 | 0.246 | 0.242 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 35 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.257 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 150 | 529 | 138 | 0.261 | 5 | 59 | 0.372 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.323 | 0.367 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 240 | 888 | 205 | 0.231 | 56 | 144 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.357 | 0.452 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 173 | 642 | 161 | 0.251 | 15 | 101 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.301 | 0.428 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 231 | 871 | 207 | 0.238 | 58 | 153 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.272 | 0.333 | 0.503 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 230 | 889 | 234 | 0.263 | 24 | 86 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.330 | 0.382 | OK |
| Marco Gonzales | 1B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.266 | 0.344 | 0.454 | |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 150 | 458 | 132 | 0.288 | 8 | 49 | 0.352 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.343 | 0.408 | OK |
| Drew Romo | C | 63 | 207 | 38 | 0.184 | 18 | 37 | 0.307 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.147 | 0.251 | 0.359 | OK |
| Rikuu Nishida | RF | 11 | 35 | 8 | 0.229 | 0 | 2 | 0.229 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.196 | 0.207 | 0.266 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Keider Montero | Starter | 10 | 52.9 | 4.25 | 1.115 | 6.6 | 39 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 98 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 25 | 24.1 | 1.49 | 1.577 | 5.6 | 15 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Vest | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.9 | 8.46 | 1.678 | 10.9 | 18 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sean Burke | Starter | 11 | 58.6 | 3.99 | 1.177 | 8.3 | 54 | 6.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 103 | 6.1 | 3 | 1 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.9 | 1.72 | 1.483 | 9.9 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever | 1 | 2.1 | 8.57 | 1.905 | 4.3 | 1 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
CHW wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| TEX | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 3 | 5 |
Quality edge: 1.1638; margin adjustment: 0.4888; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | DH | 187 | 642 | 150 | 0.234 | 24 | 101 | 0.321 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.211 | 0.286 | 0.372 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 245 | 983 | 283 | 0.288 | 40 | 112 | 0.355 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.290 | 0.403 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 229 | 860 | 169 | 0.197 | 23 | 107 | 0.295 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.203 | 0.299 | 0.316 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | C | 224 | 863 | 192 | 0.222 | 42 | 111 | 0.275 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.211 | 0.254 | 0.361 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 181 | 633 | 139 | 0.220 | 18 | 40 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.157 | 0.216 | 0.270 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 180 | 592 | 133 | 0.225 | 11 | 71 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.204 | 0.314 | 0.302 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 115 | 361 | 83 | 0.230 | 10 | 46 | 0.246 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.165 | 0.194 | 0.318 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | 3B | 71 | 209 | 44 | 0.211 | 0 | 47 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.178 | 0.254 | 0.282 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 153 | 501 | 132 | 0.263 | 11 | 42 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.240 | 0.306 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0.235 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joc Pederson | DH | 159 | 475 | 124 | 0.261 | 25 | 63 | 0.363 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.304 | 0.442 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 209 | 811 | 248 | 0.306 | 27 | 93 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.326 | 0.382 | 0.571 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 237 | 941 | 248 | 0.264 | 29 | 92 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.298 | 0.401 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 217 | 840 | 200 | 0.238 | 38 | 148 | 0.288 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.278 | 0.395 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | SS | 166 | 580 | 176 | 0.303 | 14 | 107 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.265 | 0.323 | 0.404 | OK |
| Alejandro Osuna | LF | 90 | 251 | 60 | 0.239 | 0 | 22 | 0.380 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.214 | 0.303 | 0.268 | OK |
| Kyle Higashioka | C | 92 | 313 | 58 | 0.185 | 11 | 33 | 0.274 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.134 | 0.233 | 0.232 | OK |
| Nicky Lopez | 2B | 9 | 28 | 3 | 0.107 | 1 | 3 | 0.219 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.114 | 0.200 | 0.197 | OK |
| Michael Helman | CF | 13 | 36 | 6 | 0.167 | 0 | 0 | 0.231 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.260 | 0.338 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Wacha | Starter | 11 | 70.1 | 2.70 | 1.027 | 7.7 | 60 | 6.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 108 | 6.2 | 8 | 3 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 22 | 20.4 | 5.29 | 1.765 | 7.9 | 18 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 23 | 20.3 | 2.22 | 1.133 | 12.0 | 27 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Leiter | Starter | 11 | 58.8 | 4.90 | 1.412 | 9.8 | 64 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 105 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 19 | 23.6 | 1.14 | 0.466 | 8.8 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 21 | 23.5 | 1.91 | 0.851 | 5.7 | 15 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever | 26 | 20.8 | 3.89 | 1.731 | 8.7 | 20 | 0.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
TEX wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| TB | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 2 | 6 |
Quality edge: 1.4743; margin adjustment: 0.6192; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 259 | 1022 | 246 | 0.241 | 45 | 126 | 0.351 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.260 | 0.361 | 0.452 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 252 | 890 | 224 | 0.252 | 63 | 148 | 0.422 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.461 | 0.584 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 1B | 124 | 462 | 114 | 0.247 | 13 | 98 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.312 | 0.402 | OK |
| Jorge Soler | DH | 221 | 834 | 182 | 0.218 | 36 | 135 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.286 | 0.356 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 236 | 929 | 226 | 0.243 | 33 | 132 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.224 | 0.245 | 0.392 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | 2B | 159 | 548 | 155 | 0.283 | 27 | 63 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.256 | 0.291 | 0.431 | OK |
| Jose Siri | LF | 13 | 28 | 7 | 0.250 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.219 | 0.231 | 0.428 | OK |
| Logan O'Hoppe | C | 123 | 417 | 93 | 0.223 | 4 | 46 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.280 | 0.278 | OK |
| Nick Madrigal | 3B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.500 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.161 | 0.172 | 0.229 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 220 | 862 | 274 | 0.318 | 33 | 155 | 0.397 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.302 | 0.395 | 0.569 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 229 | 852 | 248 | 0.291 | 43 | 191 | 0.386 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.358 | 0.462 | 0.563 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 116 | 359 | 100 | 0.279 | 4 | 58 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.217 | 0.309 | 0.289 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 234 | 922 | 246 | 0.267 | 57 | 128 | 0.364 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.263 | 0.364 | 0.451 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 223 | 926 | 265 | 0.286 | 0 | 44 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.227 | 0.283 | 0.280 | OK |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | RF | 13 | 48 | 12 | 0.250 | 6 | 12 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.314 | 0.355 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 184 | 686 | 130 | 0.190 | 13 | 72 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.261 | 0.284 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 73 | 193 | 49 | 0.254 | 1 | 14 | 0.319 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.274 | 0.270 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 146 | 488 | 97 | 0.199 | 0 | 54 | 0.301 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.279 | 0.274 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0.207 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Kochanowicz | Starter | 11 | 59.7 | 5.13 | 1.424 | 6.8 | 45 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 98 | 5.1 | 2 | 2 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 8 | 6.4 | 4.22 | 1.250 | 14.1 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 21 | 24.6 | 2.56 | 1.260 | 10.6 | 29 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 21 | 23.1 | 6.62 | 1.558 | 12.1 | 31 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shane McClanahan | Starter | 10 | 48.6 | 2.59 | 1.070 | 9.3 | 50 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 93 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 25 | 22.4 | 2.41 | 1.116 | 11.2 | 28 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Seymour | Middle Reliever | 24 | 24.8 | 3.63 | 1.290 | 11.6 | 32 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 25 | 21.7 | 3.32 | 0.922 | 7.5 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
TB wins 2-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.0548; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 240 | 911 | 294 | 0.323 | 26 | 85 | 0.408 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.356 | 0.443 | 0.539 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | DH | 205 | 734 | 207 | 0.282 | 47 | 198 | 0.357 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.255 | 0.334 | 0.422 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 234 | 942 | 326 | 0.346 | 19 | 107 | 0.376 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.348 | 0.371 | 0.469 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | LF | 141 | 532 | 111 | 0.209 | 12 | 42 | 0.301 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.293 | 0.347 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 239 | 885 | 172 | 0.194 | 13 | 64 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.298 | 0.304 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 1B | 186 | 629 | 140 | 0.223 | 18 | 62 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.193 | 0.275 | 0.306 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 150 | 475 | 110 | 0.232 | 12 | 95 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.286 | 0.413 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 63 | 207 | 43 | 0.208 | 0 | 24 | 0.255 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.192 | 0.235 | 0.258 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 3B | 122 | 420 | 121 | 0.288 | 4 | 79 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.278 | 0.311 | 0.410 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 202 | 772 | 204 | 0.264 | 11 | 96 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.322 | 0.365 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 244 | 1011 | 230 | 0.227 | 24 | 131 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.203 | 0.273 | 0.285 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 166 | 627 | 190 | 0.303 | 45 | 104 | 0.401 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.309 | 0.400 | 0.606 | OK |
| Jared Young | DH | 27 | 77 | 27 | 0.351 | 1 | 5 | 0.390 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.259 | 0.351 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | 1B | 179 | 668 | 152 | 0.228 | 25 | 98 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.161 | 0.192 | 0.298 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 62 | 213 | 56 | 0.263 | 4 | 22 | 0.375 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.329 | 0.328 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 182 | 652 | 160 | 0.245 | 14 | 90 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.272 | 0.326 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 222 | 819 | 191 | 0.233 | 19 | 91 | 0.281 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.212 | 0.272 | 0.319 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 96 | 288 | 55 | 0.191 | 0 | 31 | 0.251 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.164 | 0.203 | 0.252 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| John King | Starter | 26 | 18.9 | 2.38 | 0.847 | 8.6 | 18 | 5.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 76 | 5.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 16 | 13.4 | 8.06 | 1.493 | 14.1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Anthony Bender | Middle Reliever | 23 | 18.6 | 3.87 | 1.129 | 11.6 | 24 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.3 | 4.43 | 1.311 | 10.8 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nolan McLean | Starter | 11 | 59.7 | 4.52 | 1.122 | 11.3 | 75 | 5.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 96 | 5.1 | 8 | 1 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 21 | 17.6 | 5.11 | 1.534 | 14.8 | 29 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 23 | 22.8 | 3.16 | 1.184 | 9.5 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 24 | 17.7 | 1.53 | 1.469 | 12.7 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Huascar Brazobán | Middle Reliever | 25 | 24.1 | 2.24 | 1.162 | 9.0 | 24 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
MIA wins 3-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
Quality edge: -2.078; margin adjustment: -0.8728; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Christian Yelich | DH | 99 | 383 | 111 | 0.290 | 15 | 59 | 0.352 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.276 | 0.338 | 0.458 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 167 | 580 | 141 | 0.243 | 7 | 106 | 0.355 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.261 | 0.362 | 0.440 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 228 | 852 | 244 | 0.286 | 34 | 150 | 0.407 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.232 | 0.360 | 0.394 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B | 62 | 215 | 72 | 0.335 | 4 | 33 | 0.414 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.348 | 0.396 | 0.541 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | LF | 181 | 683 | 196 | 0.287 | 34 | 128 | 0.358 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.326 | 0.459 | OK |
| Gary Sánchez | C | 113 | 366 | 73 | 0.199 | 19 | 57 | 0.362 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.365 | 0.386 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 186 | 675 | 150 | 0.222 | 14 | 66 | 0.290 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.216 | 0.282 | 0.313 | OK |
| David Hamilton | 3B | 143 | 458 | 107 | 0.234 | 1 | 32 | 0.325 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.198 | 0.275 | 0.282 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | SS | 131 | 414 | 83 | 0.200 | 4 | 39 | 0.293 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.287 | 0.251 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 44 | 37 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 89 | 370 | 94 | 0.254 | 10 | 28 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.271 | 0.300 | 0.473 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 247 | 915 | 302 | 0.330 | 98 | 184 | 0.445 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.399 | 0.594 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 232 | 881 | 243 | 0.276 | 67 | 184 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.299 | 0.455 | OK |
| Taylor Trammell | LF | 45 | 156 | 55 | 0.353 | 0 | 24 | 0.399 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.282 | 0.389 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 212 | 792 | 190 | 0.240 | 26 | 103 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.305 | 0.424 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 215 | 753 | 166 | 0.220 | 20 | 88 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.316 | 0.385 | OK |
| Jake Meyers | CF | 67 | 255 | 57 | 0.224 | 9 | 25 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.269 | 0.318 | OK |
| Nick Allen | 2B | 50 | 141 | 47 | 0.333 | 4 | 19 | 0.403 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.181 | 0.240 | 0.254 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 119 | 395 | 107 | 0.271 | 16 | 66 | 0.329 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.224 | 0.277 | 0.352 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Misiorowski | Starter | 11 | 63.3 | 1.85 | 0.837 | 14.2 | 100 | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 90 | 6.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 22 | 18.7 | 4.33 | 1.337 | 10.6 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 20 | 20.0 | 2.70 | 1.000 | 11.2 | 25 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 26 | 32.5 | 2.22 | 1.415 | 14.1 | 51 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tatsuya Imai | Starter | 6 | 21.7 | 6.64 | 1.613 | 9.5 | 23 | 4.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 94 | 4.0 | 4 | 4 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 22 | 21.6 | 3.33 | 1.528 | 7.9 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.0 | 7.88 | 2.312 | 12.9 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nate Pearson | Middle Reliever | 3 | 2.2 | 0.00 | 1.364 | 8.2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever | 22 | 19.6 | 4.13 | 1.224 | 10.1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | Middle Reliever | 28 | 21.1 | 4.27 | 1.185 | 9.4 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
MIL wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | x | 2 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.7797; margin adjustment: 0.3275; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Austin Martin | RF | 175 | 639 | 186 | 0.291 | 10 | 74 | 0.391 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.319 | 0.330 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 209 | 794 | 198 | 0.249 | 24 | 121 | 0.307 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.265 | 0.353 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | CF | 169 | 616 | 142 | 0.231 | 22 | 70 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.246 | 0.393 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 218 | 828 | 182 | 0.220 | 21 | 128 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.217 | 0.269 | 0.347 | OK |
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 157 | 549 | 150 | 0.273 | 9 | 56 | 0.377 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.191 | 0.286 | 0.315 | OK |
| Orlando Arcia | 1B | 21 | 73 | 30 | 0.411 | 0 | 4 | 0.442 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.262 | 0.301 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | 2B | 211 | 786 | 191 | 0.243 | 5 | 81 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.323 | 0.369 | OK |
| Tristan Gray | SS | 96 | 316 | 72 | 0.228 | 13 | 62 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.283 | 0.387 | OK |
| Alex Jackson | C | 10 | 34 | 6 | 0.176 | 0 | 0 | 0.176 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.224 | 0.236 | 0.377 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 191 | 636 | 185 | 0.291 | 22 | 106 | 0.407 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.276 | 0.406 | 0.456 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 222 | 878 | 238 | 0.271 | 65 | 178 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.320 | 0.480 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 241 | 877 | 247 | 0.282 | 23 | 155 | 0.406 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.343 | 0.464 | 0.640 | OK |
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 246 | 1048 | 280 | 0.267 | 54 | 174 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.317 | 0.465 | OK |
| Ryan O'Hearn | RF | 181 | 704 | 205 | 0.291 | 29 | 130 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.347 | 0.422 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 200 | 804 | 247 | 0.307 | 0 | 96 | 0.359 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.278 | 0.317 | 0.336 | OK |
| Marcell Ozuna | DH | 192 | 774 | 147 | 0.190 | 25 | 102 | 0.278 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.272 | 0.313 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | SS | 76 | 271 | 60 | 0.221 | 0 | 9 | 0.270 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.207 | 0.240 | 0.252 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 126 | 429 | 61 | 0.142 | 15 | 40 | 0.237 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.140 | 0.209 | 0.266 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zebby Matthews | Starter | 3 | 19.0 | 2.37 | 0.842 | 8.1 | 17 | 6.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 99 | 6.0 | 7 | 1 |
| Taylor Rogers | Middle Reliever | 24 | 17.0 | 3.71 | 1.824 | 9.0 | 17 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Middle Reliever | 12 | 8.7 | 1.03 | 1.034 | 13.4 | 13 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Braxton Ashcraft | Starter | 11 | 66.8 | 2.83 | 1.078 | 9.4 | 70 | 6.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 114 | 6.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 27 | 26.5 | 2.04 | 0.792 | 10.9 | 32 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 22 | 18.8 | 3.83 | 1.436 | 14.4 | 30 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Yohan Ramírez | Middle Reliever | 26 | 29.3 | 5.22 | 1.570 | 11.4 | 37 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
PIT wins 2-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
Quality edge: -2.4211; margin adjustment: -1.0168; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 110 | 411 | 116 | 0.282 | 24 | 65 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.294 | 0.372 | 0.530 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 214 | 812 | 244 | 0.300 | 70 | 168 | 0.403 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.338 | 0.435 | 0.680 | OK |
| Aaron Judge | RF | 246 | 889 | 230 | 0.259 | 74 | 158 | 0.393 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.364 | 0.471 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 236 | 864 | 235 | 0.272 | 36 | 160 | 0.379 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.354 | 0.443 | OK |
| José Caballero | 3B | 165 | 581 | 160 | 0.275 | 18 | 62 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.275 | 0.306 | 0.400 | OK |
| Trent Grisham | CF | 211 | 773 | 163 | 0.211 | 32 | 131 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.370 | 0.437 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | SS | 43 | 144 | 44 | 0.306 | 6 | 35 | 0.451 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.265 | 0.409 | 0.475 | OK |
| Max Schuemann | 2B | 20 | 52 | 16 | 0.308 | 0 | 4 | 0.471 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.212 | 0.398 | 0.371 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 153 | 500 | 97 | 0.194 | 17 | 32 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.198 | 0.303 | 0.297 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carlos Cortes | RF | 151 | 502 | 177 | 0.353 | 24 | 75 | 0.436 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.245 | 0.353 | 0.392 | OK |
| Brent Rooker | DH | 161 | 616 | 123 | 0.200 | 36 | 127 | 0.291 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.173 | 0.265 | 0.308 | OK |
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 250 | 909 | 259 | 0.285 | 40 | 174 | 0.438 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.247 | 0.378 | 0.455 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 224 | 866 | 188 | 0.217 | 27 | 110 | 0.305 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.258 | 0.359 | 0.506 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | C | 29 | 108 | 19 | 0.176 | 0 | 0 | 0.239 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.297 | 0.363 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | CF | 162 | 549 | 97 | 0.177 | 13 | 55 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.147 | 0.236 | 0.229 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 136 | 506 | 129 | 0.255 | 26 | 71 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.265 | 0.380 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 189 | 661 | 177 | 0.268 | 6 | 58 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.207 | 0.271 | 0.283 | OK |
| Darell Hernaiz | SS | 113 | 356 | 97 | 0.272 | 4 | 29 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.203 | 0.277 | 0.252 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Will Warren | Starter | 11 | 56.0 | 3.70 | 1.214 | 10.4 | 65 | 5.1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 97 | 5.1 | 5 | 1 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 23 | 21.6 | 5.00 | 1.667 | 11.7 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 27 | 16.9 | 2.66 | 1.775 | 16.0 | 30 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 25 | 16.9 | 1.60 | 1.124 | 5.9 | 11 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Brent Headrick | Middle Reliever | 28 | 21.4 | 2.52 | 1.729 | 12.2 | 29 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Lopez | Starter | 11 | 46.8 | 5.96 | 1.838 | 6.7 | 35 | 4.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 84 | 4.1 | 6 | 5 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 30 | 21.6 | 3.33 | 2.037 | 12.9 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | Middle Reliever | 25 | 21.1 | 6.40 | 1.659 | 10.7 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 26 | 22.6 | 1.99 | 0.973 | 8.8 | 22 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Joel Kuhnel | Middle Reliever | 23 | 19.7 | 3.65 | 1.421 | 5.9 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
NYY wins 5-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| LAD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 11 |
Quality edge: 2.6842; margin adjustment: 1.1274; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 241 | 940 | 232 | 0.247 | 98 | 185 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.326 | 0.529 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 242 | 1042 | 241 | 0.231 | 34 | 89 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.250 | 0.389 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 232 | 845 | 233 | 0.276 | 57 | 148 | 0.382 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.330 | 0.425 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 194 | 723 | 244 | 0.337 | 23 | 111 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.306 | 0.337 | 0.501 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 211 | 794 | 171 | 0.215 | 18 | 100 | 0.274 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.200 | 0.248 | 0.313 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 187 | 673 | 147 | 0.218 | 20 | 98 | 0.270 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.172 | 0.216 | 0.291 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 133 | 465 | 116 | 0.249 | 9 | 41 | 0.325 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.270 | 0.331 | OK |
| Adolis García | RF | 215 | 767 | 151 | 0.197 | 12 | 68 | 0.284 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.147 | 0.218 | 0.231 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 175 | 598 | 142 | 0.237 | 8 | 44 | 0.303 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.203 | 0.255 | 0.314 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 239 | 922 | 256 | 0.278 | 41 | 152 | 0.405 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.289 | 0.390 | 0.572 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 228 | 870 | 273 | 0.314 | 58 | 221 | 0.362 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.321 | 0.361 | 0.613 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 229 | 863 | 233 | 0.270 | 31 | 120 | 0.371 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.302 | 0.385 | 0.563 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 93 | 399 | 73 | 0.183 | 29 | 72 | 0.225 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.241 | 0.421 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 229 | 883 | 223 | 0.253 | 21 | 119 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.320 | 0.375 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 193 | 685 | 179 | 0.261 | 53 | 81 | 0.363 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.230 | 0.320 | 0.464 | OK |
| Ryan Ward | LF | 6 | 26 | 10 | 0.385 | 0 | 5 | 0.385 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.242 | 0.255 | 0.316 | OK |
| Dalton Rushing | C | 93 | 316 | 89 | 0.282 | 31 | 68 | 0.364 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.248 | 0.317 | 0.465 | OK |
| Alex Freeland | 2B | 117 | 379 | 91 | 0.240 | 8 | 33 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.202 | 0.277 | 0.300 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0.314 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Painter | Starter | 10 | 48.6 | 5.56 | 1.502 | 7.4 | 40 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 91 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.2 | 1.57 | 0.988 | 13.6 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 25 | 23.5 | 3.83 | 1.191 | 10.7 | 28 | 1.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 |
| José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 25 | 14.9 | 7.25 | 2.349 | 15.7 | 26 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 24 | 19.0 | 2.84 | 1.263 | 10.9 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Starter | 10 | 63.3 | 3.13 | 0.995 | 8.4 | 59 | 6.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 103 | 6.2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kyle Hurt | Middle Reliever | 18 | 18.0 | 1.00 | 0.778 | 10.5 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 25 | 16.4 | 2.74 | 1.159 | 14.8 | 27 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
LAD wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| WAS | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 7 | 11 |
Quality edge: -0.0262; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | 229 | 882 | 233 | 0.264 | 1 | 70 | 0.341 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 0.355 | 0.372 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | DH | 171 | 580 | 146 | 0.252 | 32 | 85 | 0.334 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.313 | 0.409 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 219 | 791 | 139 | 0.176 | 40 | 122 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.184 | 0.272 | 0.374 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 211 | 783 | 197 | 0.252 | 30 | 104 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.301 | 0.366 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 218 | 851 | 173 | 0.203 | 18 | 89 | 0.279 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.294 | 0.381 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 101 | 347 | 102 | 0.294 | 20 | 60 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.284 | 0.465 | OK |
| Nick Castellanos | LF | 117 | 396 | 72 | 0.182 | 11 | 64 | 0.217 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.144 | 0.180 | 0.242 | OK |
| Sung-Mun Song | 2B | 25 | 63 | 13 | 0.206 | 0 | 14 | 0.315 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.140 | 0.257 | 0.228 | OK |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 107 | 343 | 48 | 0.140 | 0 | 13 | 0.242 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.124 | 0.221 | 0.184 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | RF | 268 | 1034 | 299 | 0.289 | 75 | 192 | 0.431 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.287 | 0.420 | 0.559 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 175 | 653 | 183 | 0.280 | 20 | 121 | 0.300 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.242 | 0.385 | OK |
| Curtis Mead | 3B | 146 | 483 | 125 | 0.259 | 33 | 89 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.222 | 0.333 | 0.449 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 240 | 911 | 272 | 0.299 | 48 | 206 | 0.390 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.314 | 0.391 | 0.547 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 248 | 1022 | 260 | 0.254 | 32 | 125 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.279 | 0.358 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 193 | 728 | 171 | 0.235 | 24 | 91 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.268 | 0.345 | OK |
| Jose Fernandez | DH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.267 | 0.359 | |
| Jorbit Vivas | 2B | 120 | 358 | 92 | 0.257 | 4 | 21 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.223 | 0.314 | 0.347 | OK |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 112 | 394 | 102 | 0.259 | 18 | 91 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.270 | 0.285 | 0.490 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 0.314 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Griffin Canning | Starter | 5 | 21.5 | 7.95 | 1.628 | 10.0 | 24 | 4.1 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 89 | 4.1 | 3 | 7 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 24 | 23.6 | 0.76 | 0.890 | 18.7 | 49 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 21 | 17.6 | 1.02 | 1.080 | 5.1 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 26 | 24.9 | 4.70 | 1.245 | 12.7 | 35 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.0 | 3.18 | 1.118 | 11.6 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zack Littell | Starter | 11 | 52.4 | 5.32 | 1.412 | 5.2 | 30 | 4.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 83 | 4.2 | 4 | 4 |
| Gus Varland | Middle Reliever | 23 | 17.8 | 5.06 | 1.910 | 10.1 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Clayton Beeter | Middle Reliever | 14 | 13.5 | 2.67 | 1.333 | 9.3 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Richard Lovelady | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.2 | 2.73 | 2.121 | 10.2 | 15 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 17 | 34.2 | 2.89 | 1.082 | 8.2 | 31 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
WAS wins 7-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
Quality edge: -0.3465; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Casey Schmitt | LF | 196 | 773 | 237 | 0.307 | 51 | 132 | 0.350 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.259 | 0.282 | 0.506 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 230 | 894 | 226 | 0.253 | 29 | 124 | 0.299 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.270 | 0.382 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 227 | 923 | 311 | 0.337 | 10 | 97 | 0.380 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.346 | 0.379 | 0.445 | OK |
| Willy Adames | SS | 233 | 979 | 247 | 0.252 | 30 | 87 | 0.285 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.255 | 0.280 | 0.469 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 195 | 767 | 222 | 0.289 | 12 | 73 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.329 | 0.360 | 0.466 | OK |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 229 | 879 | 198 | 0.225 | 5 | 78 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.295 | 0.307 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 52 | 167 | 31 | 0.186 | 4 | 6 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.207 | 0.312 | 0.337 | OK |
| Daniel Susac | C | 54 | 190 | 63 | 0.332 | 0 | 37 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.189 | 0.247 | 0.299 | OK |
| Drew Gilbert | CF | 113 | 380 | 94 | 0.247 | 9 | 33 | 0.301 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.251 | 0.288 | 0.433 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 38 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Willi Castro | LF | 172 | 630 | 164 | 0.260 | 8 | 72 | 0.316 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.300 | 0.343 | OK |
| Tyler Freeman | RF | 137 | 504 | 124 | 0.246 | 10 | 56 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.219 | 0.250 | 0.295 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 216 | 812 | 228 | 0.281 | 30 | 117 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.260 | 0.359 | 0.409 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | DH | 212 | 841 | 207 | 0.246 | 55 | 90 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.286 | 0.468 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 204 | 772 | 171 | 0.222 | 10 | 81 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.284 | 0.389 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 181 | 557 | 124 | 0.223 | 9 | 53 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.323 | 0.448 | OK |
| Jake McCarthy | CF | 139 | 465 | 120 | 0.258 | 9 | 66 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.292 | 0.410 | OK |
| Braxton Fulford | C | 19 | 38 | 10 | 0.263 | 3 | 6 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.142 | 0.266 | 0.233 | OK |
| Chad Stevens | 2B | 15 | 46 | 4 | 0.087 | 0 | 4 | 0.222 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.144 | 0.261 | 0.206 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 36 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Robbie Ray | Starter | 11 | 56.8 | 4.75 | 1.426 | 8.4 | 53 | 5.1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 96 | 5.1 | 6 | 1 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 23 | 21.5 | 4.60 | 1.349 | 11.3 | 27 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 25 | 24.5 | 2.57 | 0.939 | 8.1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Erik Miller | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.0 | 5.14 | 1.643 | 15.4 | 24 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tanner Gordon | Starter | 8 | 32.1 | 5.89 | 1.495 | 9.3 | 33 | 4.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 75 | 4.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 16 | 29.5 | 1.53 | 0.949 | 7.9 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 23 | 22.6 | 5.97 | 1.903 | 11.5 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever | 23 | 15.3 | 3.53 | 1.830 | 13.5 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Middle Reliever | 27 | 17.5 | 5.14 | 1.600 | 8.7 | 17 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
SF wins 6-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| BAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
Quality edge: -0.7119; margin adjustment: -0.299; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nathan Lukes | LF | 71 | 240 | 77 | 0.321 | 0 | 34 | 0.365 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.301 | 0.329 | 0.413 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | DH | 227 | 833 | 247 | 0.297 | 12 | 99 | 0.395 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.302 | 0.395 | 0.395 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 214 | 810 | 221 | 0.273 | 24 | 74 | 0.350 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.321 | 0.399 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 225 | 842 | 185 | 0.220 | 49 | 132 | 0.309 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.278 | 0.432 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 223 | 893 | 270 | 0.302 | 22 | 89 | 0.324 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.283 | 0.303 | 0.446 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | RF | 176 | 595 | 165 | 0.277 | 25 | 105 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.252 | 0.387 | OK |
| Charles McAdoo | 1B | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.250 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.236 | 0.246 | 0.396 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 196 | 705 | 161 | 0.228 | 25 | 111 | 0.260 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.216 | 0.236 | 0.417 | OK |
| Brandon Valenzuela | C | 107 | 334 | 90 | 0.269 | 17 | 44 | 0.368 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.363 | 0.382 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Taylor Ward | LF | 253 | 925 | 243 | 0.263 | 9 | 72 | 0.409 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.425 | 0.373 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 255 | 1090 | 229 | 0.210 | 54 | 136 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.189 | 0.240 | 0.377 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | DH | 161 | 629 | 167 | 0.266 | 31 | 111 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.244 | 0.318 | 0.430 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 245 | 939 | 226 | 0.241 | 41 | 149 | 0.323 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.307 | 0.414 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | C | 163 | 594 | 161 | 0.271 | 32 | 88 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.340 | 0.567 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | CF | 162 | 548 | 152 | 0.277 | 9 | 90 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.305 | 0.339 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | RF | 113 | 320 | 65 | 0.203 | 8 | 38 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.294 | 0.316 | OK |
| Blaze Alexander | 3B | 131 | 434 | 118 | 0.272 | 4 | 54 | 0.323 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.267 | 0.306 | 0.415 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 28 | 90 | 21 | 0.233 | 5 | 19 | 0.299 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.313 | 0.380 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Spencer Miles | Starter | 15 | 31.0 | 2.32 | 1.097 | 9.3 | 32 | 5.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 74 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 28 | 28.2 | 0.32 | 1.135 | 13.4 | 42 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Middle Reliever | 28 | 23.1 | 7.01 | 1.948 | 17.5 | 45 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 28 | 24.1 | 2.61 | 1.245 | 6.0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Braydon Fisher | Middle Reliever | 30 | 28.0 | 2.89 | 1.107 | 10.6 | 33 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Bradish | Starter | 11 | 57.4 | 3.92 | 1.498 | 9.6 | 61 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 104 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 26 | 22.0 | 0.82 | 0.727 | 11.5 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nunez | Middle Reliever | 26 | 24.2 | 5.21 | 1.322 | 11.5 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever | 25 | 16.4 | 2.74 | 0.793 | 8.8 | 16 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Wells | Middle Reliever | 20 | 24.7 | 3.28 | 1.174 | 9.5 | 26 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
TOR wins 3-2