MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

May 30, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ SEA2 - 41 - 3SEASEASEA wins 3-156%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
ATL @ CIN6 - 24 - 3ATLATLATL wins 4-361%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
BOS @ CLE1 - 21 - 3CLECLECLE wins 3-156%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHC @ STL4 - 24 - 1CHCCHCCHC wins 4-156%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
DET @ CHW6 - 73 - 8CHWCHWCHW wins 8-354%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
KC @ TEX4 - 63 - 6TEXTEXTEX wins 6-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
LAA @ TB1 - 32 - 3TBTBTB wins 3-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIA @ NYM2 - 13 - 1MIAMIAMIA wins 3-155%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIL @ HOU2 - 41 - 6HOUHOUHOU wins 6-156%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIN @ PIT2 - 31 - 5PITPITPIT wins 5-153%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYY @ OAK3 - 13 - 2NYYNYYNYY wins 3-252%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PHI @ LAD2 - 42 - 6LADLADLAD wins 6-258%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SD @ WAS3 - 25 - 1SDSDSD wins 5-154%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SF @ COL4 - 34 - 3SFSFSF wins 4-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TOR @ BAL2 - 14 - 0TORTORTOR wins 4-056%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Seattle Mariners

ARI 31-25 (4.66 RPG / 4.43 RA)
1 - 3
SEA 29-29 (4.26 RPG / 3.83 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 3-1 TARGET: ARI 2 - 4 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 56.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
ARI10000000017
SEA00000000338

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.382
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.4
Run Diff-51.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.407
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-96.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

ARI Season Quality

Record31-24
Win%0.564
Run Diff14
RD/Game0.255

SEA Season Quality

Record28-29
Win%0.491
Run Diff24
RD/Game0.421

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0579; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 224952265 0.278 401460.324 43200 10 0.667 0.281 0.328 0.462 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 223825247 0.299 321280.400 44200 00 0.500 0.263 0.360 0.490 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 218769174 0.226 10800.343 44111 01 0.250 0.257 0.358 0.399 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 195675188 0.279 291150.362 44000 02 0.000 0.278 0.369 0.440 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 6924266 0.273 0280.341 44100 00 0.250 0.194 0.275 0.312 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 198804249 0.310 321550.335 44000 00 0.000 0.278 0.300 0.436 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 124451119 0.264 13740.326 44000 02 0.000 0.290 0.368 0.465 OK
Adrian Del CastilloDH 12243783 0.190 14760.244 44000 01 0.000 0.201 0.258 0.338 OK
Tommy TroyLF 154718 0.383 000.473 33100 00 0.333 0.289 0.383 0.484 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35347 11 16 0.206

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 205760174 0.229 35940.353 54000 12 0.000 0.269 0.365 0.443 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 2481015263 0.259 471300.318 54000 13 0.000 0.256 0.303 0.487 OK
Josh Naylor1B 230919246 0.268 221080.332 54011 10 0.000 0.277 0.333 0.362 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 240887273 0.308 241100.392 55212 01 0.400 0.284 0.347 0.443 OK
Luke RaleyRF 153528157 0.297 461270.350 44100 01 0.250 0.269 0.298 0.580 OK
Cole Young2B 225796193 0.242 131070.322 42210 20 1.000 0.262 0.334 0.363 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 12637296 0.258 21830.325 43000 10 0.000 0.234 0.292 0.508 OK
Mitch GarverC 8425155 0.219 8240.368 43200 10 0.667 0.240 0.371 0.379 OK
Colt Emerson3B 3410931 0.284 4240.371 44100 02 0.250 0.262 0.331 0.535 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40338 33 79 0.242

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryne NelsonStarter 1157.24.88 1.2417.749 6.242228116 6.2 8 2
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.01000128 1.0 1 0
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 0.10002026 0.1 0 0
Taylor ClarkeMiddle Reliever 10.1360.00 30.0000.00 0.00111016 0.0 0 1
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 0.03002020 0.0 0 0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryan WooStarter 1163.23.84 1.0448.459 5.271116100 5.2 6 1
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 2320.55.27 1.41514.934 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 1612.60.71 0.9528.612 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 2722.42.01 1.3848.822 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 3-1


Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds

ATL 39-19 (5.29 RPG / 3.43 RA)
4 - 3
CIN 29-27 (4.43 RPG / 4.98 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 4-3 TARGET: ATL 6 - 2 CIN (ATL) Confidence: 60.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
ATL00003001046
CIN30000000034

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.264
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-71.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.302
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-141.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ATL Season Quality

Record39-19
Win%0.672
Run Diff108
RD/Game1.862

CIN Season Quality

Record29-27
Win%0.518
Run Diff-31
RD/Game-0.554

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.6475; margin adjustment: -1.1119; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 191727170 0.234 16760.357 43011 00 0.000 0.252 0.394 0.501 OK
Michael Harris IICF 199780234 0.300 531360.321 44000 01 0.000 0.319 0.337 0.583 OK
Matt Olson1B 248970263 0.271 681990.355 44100 01 0.250 0.289 0.364 0.559 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 244958266 0.278 391300.336 44111 00 0.250 0.314 0.364 0.534 OK
Dominic SmithDH 119400138 0.345 16810.374 44000 01 0.000 0.316 0.357 0.454 OK
Mauricio Dubón3B 215829210 0.253 121200.307 43000 12 0.000 0.239 0.284 0.360 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 153497110 0.221 9440.303 43000 11 0.000 0.276 0.341 0.453 OK
Jorge MateoSS 7424089 0.371 6270.421 44111 01 0.250 0.284 0.348 0.425 OK
Sandy LeónC 19444 0.091 000.091 33311 00 1.000 0.178 0.190 0.257 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35326 44 27 0.188

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Blake DunnRF 5323073 0.317 5140.382 43110 10 0.333 0.244 0.296 0.324 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 244999293 0.293 651930.363 43000 11 0.000 0.234 0.295 0.441 OK
Sal StewartDH 239894223 0.249 491600.359 44000 01 0.000 0.249 0.355 0.422 OK
Eugenio Suárez3B 119437103 0.236 10510.313 43113 12 0.333 0.204 0.303 0.313 OK
Spencer Steer1B 208769203 0.264 30870.338 44000 01 0.000 0.236 0.300 0.376 OK
JJ BledayLF 113432120 0.278 32990.373 44210 01 0.500 0.242 0.346 0.497 OK
Tyler StephensonC 159525103 0.196 17740.304 43000 10 0.000 0.217 0.328 0.369 OK
Matt McLain2B 213830176 0.212 22900.308 44000 01 0.000 0.188 0.267 0.300 OK
TJ FriedlCF 173656124 0.189 9360.267 33000 00 0.000 0.205 0.286 0.278 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 33 47 0.129

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Martín PérezStarter 1145.52.77 1.0557.940 6.023345107 6.0 5 3
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1616.21.11 0.92611.120 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 2423.40.77 0.8978.522 1.01000117 1.0 1 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 2724.11.49 0.66412.333 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brady SingerStarter 1044.66.46 1.7496.934 4.05332482 4.0 4 3
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 2220.33.99 1.3309.321 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Pierce JohnsonMiddle Reliever 2417.84.04 1.51710.120 1.2000006 1.2 0 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 2720.14.48 1.84111.225 1.01110116 1.0 1 1
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 87.26.25 1.1118.87 1.00000216 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-3


Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

BOS 24-33 (3.89 RPG / 4.07 RA)
1 - 3
CLE 34-26 (4.08 RPG / 3.98 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 3-1 TARGET: BOS 1 - 2 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 55.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
BOS00000010013
CLE00030000x36

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.185
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-115.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.375
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-105.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BOS Season Quality

Record23-33
Win%0.411
Run Diff-18
RD/Game-0.321

CLE Season Quality

Record34-25
Win%0.576
Run Diff14
RD/Game0.237

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8071; margin adjustment: 0.339; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 221921198 0.215 361320.286 44000 02 0.000 0.220 0.272 0.374 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 200759214 0.282 18890.348 44000 01 0.000 0.253 0.294 0.404 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 231911256 0.281 26980.347 43000 12 0.000 0.252 0.312 0.399 OK
Willson Contreras1B 221816231 0.283 491570.378 44000 02 0.000 0.284 0.369 0.465 OK
Nick Sogard2B 3712335 0.285 050.376 43211 10 0.667 0.242 0.325 0.388 OK
Andruw MonasterioDH 9533887 0.257 6440.309 44100 00 0.250 0.166 0.221 0.291 OK
Isiah Kiner-FalefaSS 6920167 0.333 4340.422 33000 02 0.000 0.315 0.421 0.393 OK
Connor WongC 6720448 0.235 0290.328 32000 10 0.000 0.164 0.247 0.281 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 169580108 0.186 5700.265 33000 02 0.000 0.206 0.256 0.323 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33303 11 311 0.100

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Travis Bazzana2B 113410123 0.300 12480.413 44000 01 0.000 0.309 0.400 0.490 OK
José Ramírez3B 251930218 0.234 361240.351 43000 11 0.000 0.223 0.346 0.377 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 215834215 0.258 321470.334 43110 11 0.333 0.282 0.351 0.440 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 168601129 0.215 16580.296 44000 03 0.000 0.241 0.323 0.354 OK
Angel MartínezLF 192741193 0.260 381190.300 44313 00 0.750 0.231 0.253 0.382 OK
Daniel SchneemannCF 161555135 0.243 17770.332 43000 11 0.000 0.248 0.345 0.378 OK
Petey HalpinRF 268310 0.120 050.170 44100 01 0.250 0.101 0.149 0.141 OK
Austin HedgesC 8225861 0.236 5170.309 33000 01 0.000 0.204 0.278 0.324 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 204684205 0.300 141040.377 32110 10 0.500 0.295 0.351 0.424 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34306 33 49 0.200

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sonny GrayStarter 943.33.33 1.2247.134 5.03333586 5.0 5 3
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1817.20.52 0.87212.023 1.11001224 1.1 2 0
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 107.54.80 1.46714.412 0.10000115 0.1 1 0
Jovani MoránMiddle Reliever 1827.13.32 1.10711.334 1.12000123 1.1 1 0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 1162.02.32 1.08110.270 6.01000897 6.0 8 0
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2727.22.65 1.10313.942 1.02111123 1.0 1 1
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 1612.04.50 1.5839.012 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 1511.21.61 1.42914.518 1.00001117 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 3-1


Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHC 31-27 (4.78 RPG / 4.47 RA)
4 - 1
STL 30-25 (4.38 RPG / 4.55 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 4-1 TARGET: CHC 4 - 2 STL (CHC) Confidence: 56.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CHC30000001047
STL00000001015

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.088
Avg Runs0.7
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-164.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.151
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-121.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CHC Season Quality

Record31-27
Win%0.534
Run Diff18
RD/Game0.310

STL Season Quality

Record30-25
Win%0.545
Run Diff-9
RD/Game-0.164

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4575; margin adjustment: -0.1922; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 234859206 0.240 261070.334 55100 02 0.200 0.237 0.318 0.369 OK
Nico Hoerner2B 2551074276 0.257 211610.342 44211 00 0.500 0.245 0.323 0.345 OK
Michael Busch1B 248915217 0.237 301550.383 43000 11 0.000 0.234 0.385 0.384 OK
Alex Bregman3B 2551054276 0.262 17810.350 43111 00 0.333 0.255 0.327 0.344 OK
Ian HappLF 239936225 0.240 641510.361 43111 10 0.333 0.279 0.376 0.576 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 182705182 0.258 32880.350 44111 02 0.250 0.274 0.346 0.409 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 14143791 0.208 23720.287 43000 11 0.000 0.189 0.265 0.336 OK
Miguel AmayaC 9029565 0.220 12330.324 44100 02 0.250 0.182 0.281 0.292 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 214744150 0.202 331170.307 44000 02 0.000 0.195 0.309 0.341 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37337 44 310 0.212

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 244957225 0.235 421170.358 44100 01 0.250 0.227 0.309 0.385 OK
Iván HerreraDH 244927241 0.260 281160.387 44000 00 0.000 0.261 0.366 0.416 OK
Alec Burleson1B 229925257 0.278 311560.343 44100 00 0.250 0.231 0.289 0.374 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 225878281 0.320 691980.387 43100 11 0.333 0.308 0.367 0.535 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 199728168 0.231 241090.305 44000 02 0.000 0.218 0.285 0.318 OK
Masyn WinnSS 200772178 0.231 5880.297 44000 02 0.000 0.228 0.279 0.313 OK
Jimmy CrooksC 000 0.000 000.000 44100 00 0.250 0.235 0.301 0.384
Bryan TorresLF 218122 0.272 040.352 32000 11 0.000 0.255 0.325 0.408 OK
Victor Scott IICF 15646780 0.171 9270.245 33111 01 0.333 0.165 0.248 0.234 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 11 28 0.156

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ben BrownStarter 1643.52.07 1.0119.747 5.22002597 5.2 5 0
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 129.52.84 1.57911.412 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 1410.82.50 1.38912.515 1.12110128 1.1 1 1
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 2421.12.99 1.51712.830 1.01000118 1.0 1 0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle LeahyStarter 1050.24.48 1.5947.542 4.26332699 4.2 6 3
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2523.73.42 1.05510.327 1.00000316 1.0 3 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2622.03.27 1.40910.225 1.21111028 1.2 0 1
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 2419.43.71 1.2898.418 1.20000131 1.2 1 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 4-1


Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox

DET 22-37 (3.76 RPG / 4.41 RA)
3 - 8
CHW 31-27 (4.71 RPG / 4.59 RA)
WINNER: CHW wins 8-3 TARGET: DET 6 - 7 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 53.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
DET03000000037
CHW01420001x811

DET Recent Form

Win%0.263
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-123.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.278
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-68.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

DET Season Quality

Record22-36
Win%0.379
Run Diff-32
RD/Game-0.552

CHW Season Quality

Record30-27
Win%0.526
Run Diff1
RD/Game0.018

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7898; margin adjustment: 0.3317; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle3B 240921275 0.299 141070.398 55000 00 0.000 0.254 0.342 0.378 OK
Dillon DinglerC 206765186 0.243 491480.332 44000 02 0.000 0.224 0.314 0.459 OK
Matt VierlingCF 159580118 0.203 15820.276 43000 10 0.000 0.151 0.225 0.269 OK
Riley GreeneLF 235856265 0.310 171110.407 44100 02 0.250 0.281 0.363 0.401 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 216750155 0.207 32800.313 43212 10 0.667 0.200 0.288 0.405 OK
Jahmai JonesDH 7416026 0.162 4150.260 44111 02 0.250 0.119 0.207 0.213 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 13747784 0.176 11340.235 44000 01 0.000 0.211 0.285 0.429 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 7421839 0.179 2230.238 44210 01 0.500 0.164 0.217 0.264 OK
Zack ShortSS 296610 0.152 010.380 43100 11 0.333 0.136 0.331 0.178 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 33 39 0.206

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chase Meidroth2B 229885233 0.263 24860.337 44110 01 0.250 0.247 0.333 0.381 OK
Randal GrichukRF 3810035 0.350 8410.387 44010 01 0.000 0.277 0.294 0.485 OK
Miguel Vargas1B 239885204 0.231 561440.363 44000 01 0.000 0.226 0.355 0.453 OK
Colson Montgomery3B 230868205 0.236 571520.332 44112 01 0.250 0.261 0.321 0.466 OK
Edgar QueroC 12742982 0.191 5600.267 44110 01 0.250 0.216 0.293 0.270 OK
Derek HillCF 7017436 0.207 6150.258 44212 01 0.500 0.146 0.202 0.240 OK
Luisangel AcuñaSS 10933958 0.171 0220.235 43110 10 0.333 0.185 0.240 0.224 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 171635158 0.249 14990.287 44312 01 0.750 0.226 0.267 0.363 OK
Sam AntonacciLF 149526138 0.262 5590.374 44212 00 0.500 0.272 0.325 0.368 OK
TEAM TOTALS 363511 88 17 0.314

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Framber ValdezStarter 1160.34.33 1.3437.550 5.16440590 5.1 5 4
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2524.11.49 1.5775.615 1.0222005 1.0 0 2
Will VestMiddle Reliever 1814.98.46 1.67810.918 0.0011003 0.0 0 1
Drew AndersonMiddle Reliever 1934.33.94 1.28312.146 1.1000014 1.1 1 0
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 2421.75.39 1.7059.523 0.11000117 0.1 1 0
Brenan HanifeeMiddle Reliever 109.71.86 1.4435.66 0.02111015 0.0 0 1

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Anthony KayStarter 1150.04.14 1.4607.039 6.141136104 6.1 6 1
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 0.01110016 0.0 0 1
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.01000118 1.0 1 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 2420.91.72 1.4839.923 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 0.21110119 0.2 1 1

Game Summary

CHW wins 8-3


Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers

KC 22-36 (3.76 RPG / 4.72 RA)
3 - 6
TEX 27-31 (3.98 RPG / 3.91 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 6-3 TARGET: KC 4 - 6 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 53.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
KC00020100038
TEX00012300x610

KC Recent Form

Win%0.113
Avg Runs0.6
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-184.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.236
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-109.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

KC Season Quality

Record22-34
Win%0.393
Run Diff-47
RD/Game-0.839

TEX Season Quality

Record25-31
Win%0.446
Run Diff-5
RD/Game-0.089

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8304; margin adjustment: 0.3488; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenC 186637148 0.232 23980.320 53000 20 0.000 0.207 0.285 0.347 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 244979282 0.288 401110.355 54100 12 0.250 0.229 0.291 0.421 OK
Maikel Garcia3B 235972279 0.287 14990.338 55100 01 0.200 0.283 0.332 0.417 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 228857167 0.195 231060.292 44000 01 0.000 0.190 0.280 0.302 OK
Salvador PerezDH 223858192 0.224 421110.276 44211 01 0.500 0.223 0.267 0.378 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 180628138 0.220 18400.294 43111 12 0.333 0.160 0.221 0.281 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 179589131 0.222 11710.350 44111 00 0.250 0.186 0.297 0.277 OK
Michael Massey2B 11435983 0.231 10460.247 44000 01 0.000 0.170 0.197 0.330 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 152499131 0.263 11420.314 44200 00 0.500 0.200 0.236 0.306 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39358 33 48 0.229

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 158470123 0.262 24620.365 53110 20 0.333 0.217 0.318 0.453 OK
Josh Jung3B 208806245 0.304 26920.362 54213 01 0.500 0.317 0.378 0.551 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 236936247 0.264 29920.347 55110 02 0.200 0.239 0.299 0.405 OK
Jake Burger1B 216835197 0.236 381470.286 44100 01 0.250 0.216 0.258 0.368 OK
Ezequiel DuranSS 165576175 0.304 141060.358 44212 01 0.500 0.272 0.326 0.421 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 8925060 0.240 0220.381 43111 12 0.333 0.221 0.310 0.279 OK
Danny JansenC 13143982 0.187 13430.285 43000 11 0.000 0.190 0.261 0.328 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 8251 0.040 120.172 44000 03 0.000 0.097 0.190 0.194 OK
Michael HelmanCF 12325 0.156 000.229 44210 00 0.500 0.201 0.266 0.354 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393410 66 411 0.294

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Seth LugoStarter 1163.63.82 1.4157.654 5.263337113 5.2 7 3
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 2220.45.29 1.7657.918 0.03330018 0.0 0 3
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 2220.11.79 0.99512.127 1.10000318 1.1 3 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever 2318.33.44 1.5855.912 1.01001120 1.0 1 0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kumar RockerStarter 1048.64.07 1.3997.842 4.27332891 4.2 8 3
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 1923.61.14 0.4668.823 1.20001025 1.2 0 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 2023.31.55 0.7305.013 1.20001025 1.2 0 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 2520.72.61 1.5948.319 1.01000016 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 6-3


Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays

LAA 23-36 (4.29 RPG / 5.1 RA)
2 - 3
TB 35-20 (4.67 RPG / 4.38 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 3-2 TARGET: LAA 1 - 3 TB (TB) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
LAA00000001125
TB03000000x38

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.161
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-170.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TB Recent Form

Win%0.302
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-80.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAA Season Quality

Record22-36
Win%0.379
Run Diff-59
RD/Game-1.017

TB Season Quality

Record35-19
Win%0.648
Run Diff27
RD/Game0.500

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.9205; margin adjustment: 0.8066; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 2581019246 0.241 451260.352 43000 10 0.000 0.258 0.356 0.453 OK
Mike TroutCF 251887222 0.250 621470.421 44000 03 0.000 0.270 0.444 0.543 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 123459113 0.246 13970.309 44111 00 0.250 0.239 0.301 0.396 OK
Jorge SolerDH 220830182 0.219 361350.305 44100 00 0.250 0.220 0.287 0.367 OK
Wade MecklerLF 206720 0.299 4130.338 44000 02 0.000 0.240 0.281 0.362 OK
Jo AdellRF 235924225 0.244 321290.291 44000 03 0.000 0.223 0.245 0.374 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 158543153 0.282 26620.354 33111 00 0.333 0.238 0.275 0.383 OK
Donovan Walton3B 207820 0.256 000.293 33200 00 0.667 0.252 0.288 0.353 OK
Sebastián RiveroC 4111716 0.137 040.179 33000 02 0.000 0.122 0.167 0.156 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33325 22 110 0.156

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 219858272 0.317 321540.396 43111 00 0.333 0.297 0.385 0.526 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 228849247 0.291 431910.384 42000 20 0.000 0.364 0.457 0.572 OK
Junior Caminero3B 233919244 0.266 571270.362 43100 10 0.333 0.256 0.351 0.436 OK
Ryan ViladeRF 7823179 0.342 7560.405 44100 00 0.250 0.272 0.360 0.439 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 222922265 0.287 0440.323 44100 02 0.250 0.244 0.295 0.302 OK
Ben Williamson2B 128432119 0.275 0540.359 43111 11 0.333 0.279 0.366 0.395 OK
Nick FortesC 135443111 0.251 4360.293 44211 00 0.500 0.225 0.253 0.312 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 183683129 0.189 13720.262 44100 02 0.250 0.192 0.252 0.271 OK
Taylor WallsSS 14548597 0.200 0540.301 44000 02 0.000 0.198 0.286 0.286 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36318 33 47 0.258

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Reid DetmersStarter 1160.24.78 1.19611.275 5.28331599 5.2 5 3
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 86.44.22 1.25014.110 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 2023.52.68 1.27710.728 1.10002121 1.1 1 0
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 2123.16.62 1.55812.131 0.00001020 0.0 0 0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Drew RasmussenStarter 1054.32.82 0.9948.551 6.02001796 6.0 7 0
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 2522.42.41 1.11611.228 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 2323.83.40 1.26111.731 1.12110123 1.1 1 1
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 2521.73.32 0.9227.518 0.21110112 0.2 1 1

Game Summary

TB wins 3-2


Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

MIA 26-33 (4.22 RPG / 4.56 RA)
3 - 1
NYM 25-33 (3.95 RPG / 4.33 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 3-1 TARGET: MIA 2 - 1 NYM (MIA) Confidence: 54.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIA00030000037
NYM00000010014

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.291
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-120.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.385
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-118.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIA Season Quality

Record26-32
Win%0.448
Run Diff-15
RD/Game-0.259

NYM Season Quality

Record24-33
Win%0.421
Run Diff-27
RD/Game-0.474

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2559; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 239908293 0.323 26850.408 43000 00 0.000 0.356 0.440 0.547 OK
Liam Hicks1B 204730204 0.279 471970.355 44110 01 0.250 0.233 0.318 0.404 OK
Otto LopezSS 233938326 0.348 191070.377 44000 01 0.000 0.370 0.393 0.494 OK
Kyle StowersLF 140528111 0.210 12420.303 44100 01 0.250 0.231 0.304 0.362 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 238881171 0.194 13640.326 44210 00 0.500 0.195 0.301 0.295 OK
Leo JiménezDH 5015640 0.256 040.322 44100 00 0.250 0.178 0.251 0.236 OK
Owen CaissieRF 149471110 0.234 12950.286 43113 10 0.333 0.263 0.304 0.438 OK
Christopher Morel3B 6220839 0.188 040.246 44100 01 0.250 0.207 0.249 0.295 OK
Joe MackC 6220443 0.211 0240.258 44000 02 0.000 0.204 0.249 0.274 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 33 16 0.206

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 201768201 0.262 11960.331 44000 00 0.000 0.255 0.305 0.334 OK
Bo Bichette3B 2431008230 0.228 241310.275 44000 02 0.000 0.213 0.278 0.301 OK
Juan SotoLF 165624189 0.303 451030.401 42100 21 0.500 0.308 0.396 0.629 OK
Jared YoungDH 267325 0.342 040.385 44000 01 0.000 0.195 0.261 0.316 OK
Mark Vientos1B 178664151 0.227 25960.268 44100 01 0.250 0.163 0.195 0.295 OK
A.J. EwingCF 6120956 0.268 4220.381 42000 20 0.000 0.239 0.337 0.340 OK
Marcus Semien2B 221815189 0.232 19900.280 44211 02 0.500 0.206 0.268 0.318 OK
Vidal BrujánSS 5131 0.077 010.294 44000 00 0.000 0.177 0.340 0.271 OK
Hayden SengerC 11242 0.083 040.083 33000 00 0.000 0.204 0.216 0.295 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 11 47 0.129

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler PhillipsStarter 1631.81.13 1.3218.831 5.02002477 5.0 4 0
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 1613.48.06 1.49314.121 1.00111017 1.0 0 1
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 2318.63.87 1.12911.624 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 2018.34.43 1.31110.822 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Andrew NardiMiddle Reliever 2419.45.57 1.49512.527 1.00001217 1.0 2 0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Christian ScottStarter 623.73.42 1.47711.430 5.04331579 5.0 5 3
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 2016.65.42 1.62715.228 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 2322.83.16 1.1849.524 1.01000118 1.0 1 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 2417.71.53 1.46912.725 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever 2423.12.34 1.2128.221 1.00000015 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 3-1


Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros

MIL 34-21 (4.84 RPG / 3.53 RA)
1 - 6
HOU 27-33 (4.52 RPG / 5.03 RA)
WINNER: HOU wins 6-1 TARGET: MIL 2 - 4 HOU (HOU) Confidence: 56.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIL00000000115
HOU10400100x611

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.392
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-65.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.411
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-156.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

MIL Season Quality

Record33-20
Win%0.623
Run Diff78
RD/Game1.472

HOU Season Quality

Record26-32
Win%0.448
Run Diff-37
RD/Game-0.638

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.3712; margin adjustment: -0.9959; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Christian YelichDH 98380110 0.289 15590.351 43100 01 0.333 0.282 0.339 0.475 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 90391109 0.279 5250.324 44000 02 0.000 0.245 0.296 0.389 OK
Brice Turang2B 227849244 0.287 341500.408 43100 10 0.333 0.237 0.363 0.403 OK
William ContrerasC 218882264 0.299 171530.371 44000 00 0.000 0.273 0.336 0.383 OK
Jake BauersRF 180679195 0.287 341280.358 44100 01 0.250 0.273 0.337 0.493 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 6121170 0.332 4330.412 43100 12 0.333 0.343 0.393 0.553 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 166577141 0.244 71060.356 44111 02 0.250 0.265 0.362 0.456 OK
Joey OrtizSS 13041183 0.202 4390.295 43000 10 0.000 0.209 0.297 0.267 OK
David Hamilton3B 142455107 0.235 1320.327 44000 01 0.000 0.205 0.284 0.286 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 11 39 0.156

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 8836591 0.249 9260.304 55110 00 0.200 0.254 0.285 0.433 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 246911300 0.329 981840.445 44111 00 0.250 0.276 0.396 0.608 OK
Christian Walker1B 231877242 0.276 661810.351 44211 01 0.500 0.226 0.301 0.443 OK
Taylor TrammellLF 4415254 0.355 0230.399 44212 00 0.500 0.246 0.291 0.409 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 211789189 0.240 261010.335 44111 02 0.250 0.215 0.296 0.415 OK
Cam SmithRF 214749165 0.220 20880.314 44100 00 0.250 0.241 0.314 0.385 OK
Braden Shewmake2B 7325762 0.241 8270.247 44000 00 0.000 0.154 0.170 0.248 OK
Jake MeyersCF 6625155 0.219 9240.291 42000 21 0.000 0.182 0.253 0.306 OK
Christian VázquezC 118391106 0.271 16660.329 44311 00 0.750 0.229 0.284 0.370 OK
TEAM TOTALS 373511 66 24 0.314

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon SproatStarter 1042.16.20 1.63910.348 4.17550178 4.1 1 5
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 2218.74.33 1.33710.622 0.00001017 0.0 0 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 2020.02.70 1.00011.225 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 2632.52.22 1.41514.151 1.11111018 1.1 0 1
Chad PatrickMiddle Reliever 1343.62.68 1.2616.833 1.0200015 1.0 1 0
DL HallMiddle Reliever 2223.42.69 1.41011.229 0.11000121 0.1 1 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Peter LambertStarter 740.13.82 1.1729.040 6.220036106 6.2 6 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 2221.63.33 1.5287.919 1.11000121 1.1 1 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 2116.07.88 2.31212.923 0.21110115 0.2 1 1
Nate PearsonMiddle Reliever 32.20.00 1.3648.22 0.11000117 0.1 1 0

Game Summary

HOU wins 6-1


Minnesota Twins @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MIN 27-32 (4.61 RPG / 4.86 RA)
1 - 5
PIT 31-28 (4.95 RPG / 4.53 RA)
WINNER: PIT wins 5-1 TARGET: MIN 2 - 3 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
MIN00100000014
PIT00100103x510

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.286
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-121.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.226
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-110.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record27-31
Win%0.466
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.241

PIT Season Quality

Record30-28
Win%0.517
Run Diff24
RD/Game0.414

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7328; margin adjustment: 0.3078; applied: True

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonDH 219937251 0.268 831350.328 44000 01 0.000 0.251 0.317 0.524 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 156546150 0.275 9560.377 44111 01 0.250 0.197 0.287 0.322 OK
Josh Bell1B 217823181 0.220 211250.284 44200 01 0.500 0.217 0.270 0.347 OK
Kody ClemensCF 168611139 0.227 22680.315 43000 13 0.000 0.172 0.237 0.366 OK
Austin MartinRF 174634186 0.293 10740.393 44000 00 0.000 0.245 0.333 0.346 OK
Victor CaratiniC 15050292 0.183 5720.281 44000 02 0.000 0.203 0.272 0.254 OK
Orlando Arcia3B 206829 0.426 040.458 33100 01 0.333 0.220 0.275 0.322 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 210781188 0.241 5810.322 32000 11 0.000 0.242 0.306 0.352 OK
Tristan GraySS 9531371 0.227 13600.276 33000 01 0.000 0.239 0.280 0.379 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 11 211 0.129

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Spencer Horwitz1B 190631183 0.290 211050.407 54011 10 0.000 0.271 0.406 0.430 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 221875237 0.271 651780.363 55311 00 0.600 0.239 0.321 0.496 OK
Bryan ReynoldsRF 240875245 0.280 231540.404 44210 01 0.500 0.335 0.448 0.636 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 199799244 0.305 0940.358 43100 00 0.333 0.260 0.301 0.324 OK
Oneil CruzCF 2451044279 0.267 531710.332 43111 11 0.333 0.238 0.312 0.429 OK
Konnor GriffinDH 197762196 0.257 18990.320 44112 02 0.250 0.261 0.313 0.456 OK
Endy RodríguezC 226819 0.279 080.437 43000 11 0.000 0.252 0.411 0.354 OK
Jake MangumLF 10336995 0.257 0110.318 44100 01 0.250 0.231 0.280 0.277 OK
Jared TrioloSS 7526659 0.222 080.271 44100 00 0.250 0.206 0.240 0.257 OK
TEAM TOTALS 383410 55 36 0.294

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bailey OberStarter 1161.33.96 1.1096.343 6.072206106 6.0 6 2
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 2417.03.71 1.8249.017 1.21000024 1.2 0 0
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 128.71.03 1.03413.413 0.12333022 0.1 0 3

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mitch KellerStarter 1163.43.69 1.0886.546 6.03112793 6.0 7 1
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2625.42.13 0.78711.332 1.01000017 1.0 0 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 2118.62.90 1.23714.530 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever 2528.35.41 1.62511.436 0.2000028 0.2 2 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 5-1


New York Yankees @ Oakland Athletics

NYY 35-22 (5.05 RPG / 3.39 RA)
3 - 2
OAK 27-30 (4.18 RPG / 4.72 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 3-2 TARGET: NYY 3 - 1 OAK (NYY) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
NYY00003000034
OAK00000020026

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.278
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed2.4
Run Diff-69.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.241
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-134.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

NYY Season Quality

Record34-22
Win%0.607
Run Diff89
RD/Game1.589

OAK Season Quality

Record27-29
Win%0.482
Run Diff-25
RD/Game-0.446

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.2232; margin adjustment: -0.9337; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 210770163 0.212 321310.327 44111 01 0.250 0.264 0.369 0.468 OK
Ben RiceDH 213809243 0.300 701670.401 44112 01 0.250 0.336 0.429 0.681 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 245885230 0.260 741570.394 44110 02 0.250 0.252 0.379 0.508 OK
Cody BellingerLF 235861235 0.273 361590.379 44000 01 0.000 0.257 0.359 0.472 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 217821204 0.248 27920.330 44000 03 0.000 0.266 0.349 0.473 OK
Paul Goldschmidt1B 109408115 0.282 24650.366 43000 12 0.000 0.291 0.366 0.531 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 153513102 0.199 18660.261 33000 01 0.000 0.237 0.288 0.451 OK
Austin WellsC 15249896 0.193 17320.310 33100 00 0.333 0.199 0.308 0.305 OK
Anthony VolpeSS 4214044 0.314 6350.461 32000 11 0.000 0.278 0.424 0.501 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 33 212 0.129

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Colby ThomasRF 3911035 0.318 2140.359 44000 01 0.000 0.237 0.278 0.373 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 249905256 0.283 391720.437 43100 11 0.333 0.223 0.359 0.402 OK
Shea LangeliersC 230955292 0.306 591300.375 44000 01 0.000 0.251 0.310 0.441 OK
Brent RookerDH 160613123 0.201 361270.291 44000 02 0.000 0.172 0.268 0.309 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 223863185 0.214 261090.303 43000 01 0.000 0.237 0.335 0.457 OK
Henry BolteCF 4616652 0.313 0160.369 44000 01 0.000 0.272 0.331 0.348 OK
Zack Gelof3B 135502128 0.255 26700.307 44311 00 0.750 0.229 0.271 0.391 OK
Darell HernaizSS 11235297 0.276 4290.353 44000 00 0.000 0.219 0.292 0.274 OK
Alika Williams2B 7194 0.211 040.211 33211 00 0.667 0.118 0.132 0.178 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 22 17 0.182

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan WeathersStarter 1055.73.23 1.14910.565 5.24001692 5.2 6 0
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2321.65.00 1.66711.728 1.02220019 1.0 0 2
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 2716.92.66 1.77516.030 1.2000019 1.2 1 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2516.91.60 1.1245.911 0.20000011 0.2 0 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
J.T. GinnStarter 1251.83.30 1.1788.348 5.24332796 5.2 7 3
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 2920.63.50 2.03912.729 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 2521.16.40 1.65910.725 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 2522.52.00 0.8448.822 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 3-2


Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

PHI 29-28 (3.95 RPG / 4.28 RA)
2 - 6
LAD 37-20 (5.3 RPG / 3.16 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 6-2 TARGET: PHI 2 - 4 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 58.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
PHI00101000026
LAD04000200x610

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.214
Avg Runs0.7
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-138.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.309
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-64.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PHI Season Quality

Record29-27
Win%0.518
Run Diff-17
RD/Game-0.304

LAD Season Quality

Record36-20
Win%0.643
Run Diff120
RD/Game2.143

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.6339; margin adjustment: 1.1062; applied: True

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 240936231 0.247 981850.359 44212 02 0.500 0.245 0.330 0.542 OK
Trea TurnerSS 2411038240 0.231 34890.278 44000 01 0.000 0.211 0.253 0.398 OK
Bryce Harper1B 231843232 0.275 571470.381 44000 01 0.000 0.214 0.325 0.436 OK
Brandon MarshLF 193721244 0.338 231110.369 43000 11 0.000 0.307 0.339 0.518 OK
Alec Bohm3B 210790170 0.215 17990.275 44000 01 0.000 0.200 0.251 0.294 OK
Bryson Stott2B 186669147 0.220 20980.271 44210 00 0.500 0.176 0.221 0.299 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 132461116 0.252 9410.328 43000 11 0.000 0.239 0.287 0.360 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 214763151 0.198 12680.286 44100 03 0.250 0.152 0.230 0.241 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 174595141 0.237 8440.303 43100 10 0.333 0.197 0.250 0.313 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 22 310 0.182

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 238917255 0.278 411520.406 44112 00 0.250 0.293 0.398 0.588 OK
Andy PagesCF 227865272 0.314 582210.363 44211 01 0.500 0.333 0.375 0.643 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 228859232 0.270 311200.371 44000 02 0.000 0.306 0.393 0.571 OK
Mookie BettsSS 9239570 0.177 29710.220 44000 01 0.000 0.192 0.225 0.412 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 228879223 0.254 211190.347 44110 00 0.250 0.248 0.333 0.395 OK
Will SmithC 174652168 0.258 22990.333 43000 10 0.000 0.311 0.411 0.566 OK
Miguel Rojas2B 9229078 0.269 4350.297 44210 01 0.500 0.267 0.293 0.382 OK
Alex CallLF 6219252 0.271 0350.395 44211 01 0.500 0.197 0.330 0.278 OK
Santiago Espinal3B 4312530 0.240 3160.269 33212 00 0.667 0.223 0.267 0.408 OK
TEAM TOTALS 353410 66 16 0.294

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jesús LuzardoStarter 1159.84.52 1.32110.872 5.1106613101 5.1 3 6
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 1716.21.67 1.04914.426 1.00000218 1.0 2 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 2422.54.00 1.24410.827 1.20000117 1.2 1 0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Roki SasakiStarter 945.24.98 1.4388.643 5.142234103 5.1 4 2
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 2522.51.20 0.62211.228 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 1717.01.06 0.82410.620 1.01000316 1.0 3 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 2416.22.78 1.11114.426 0.20000114 0.2 1 0
Blake TreinenMiddle Reliever 2014.11.91 1.27710.216 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-2


San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals

SD 32-25 (3.95 RPG / 4.02 RA)
5 - 1
WAS 30-29 (5.42 RPG / 5.44 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 5-1 TARGET: SD 3 - 2 WAS (SD) Confidence: 53.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SD01300000158
WAS00000100014

SD Recent Form

Win%0.204
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-122.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.259
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-129.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

SD Season Quality

Record32-24
Win%0.571
Run Diff1
RD/Game0.018

WAS Season Quality

Record29-29
Win%0.500
Run Diff-6
RD/Game-0.103

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2284; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 228877231 0.263 0690.341 55111 01 0.200 0.297 0.361 0.352 OK
Gavin SheetsLF 170577146 0.253 32850.334 54111 12 0.250 0.239 0.315 0.429 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 165631177 0.281 19710.306 55211 02 0.400 0.232 0.255 0.400 OK
Manny Machado3B 218787137 0.174 391200.268 44111 01 0.250 0.173 0.266 0.345 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 217848173 0.204 18890.279 43000 11 0.000 0.229 0.292 0.384 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 210780196 0.251 291030.319 43000 01 0.000 0.238 0.299 0.342 OK
Ty France1B 100344101 0.294 20600.325 43100 10 0.333 0.252 0.275 0.473 OK
Ramón LaureanoRF 196731163 0.223 29990.302 44000 01 0.000 0.209 0.278 0.407 OK
Rodolfo DuránC 24627 0.113 480.257 44211 00 0.500 0.165 0.265 0.309 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39358 55 39 0.229

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 2671029298 0.290 751920.432 43000 11 0.000 0.295 0.431 0.588 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 174649181 0.279 201190.299 43100 00 0.333 0.224 0.245 0.414 OK
Daylen LileLF 2471018260 0.255 321240.313 44000 02 0.000 0.229 0.288 0.366 OK
CJ AbramsSS 239907271 0.299 482060.390 43100 11 0.333 0.318 0.396 0.561 OK
Jose FernandezDH 000 0.000 000.000 44000 01 0.000 0.244 0.270 0.364
Jorbit Vivas3B 11935591 0.256 4210.344 44100 00 0.250 0.229 0.314 0.373 OK
Dylan CrewsCF 3213533 0.244 450.266 44111 02 0.250 0.247 0.271 0.376 OK
Drew MillasC 9933159 0.178 4270.261 44000 00 0.000 0.179 0.246 0.254 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 191657126 0.192 0630.295 32000 11 0.000 0.199 0.284 0.261 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 11 38 0.129

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael KingStarter 1160.62.82 1.1729.463 5.24113695 5.2 6 1
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 2423.60.76 0.89018.749 1.00000121 1.0 1 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 2117.61.02 1.0805.110 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 2624.94.70 1.24512.735 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Foster GriffinStarter 1161.33.67 1.1428.860 5.254423105 5.2 3 4
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 2217.64.60 1.7059.719 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 1312.42.90 1.2909.413 1.10000218 1.1 2 0
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 1713.22.73 2.12110.215 1.02111223 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

SD wins 5-1


San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

SF 22-35 (3.68 RPG / 4.67 RA)
4 - 3
COL 21-37 (4.09 RPG / 5.38 RA)
WINNER: SF wins 4-3 TARGET: SF 4 - 3 COL (SF) Confidence: 56.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
SF01300000049
COL10000100138

SF Recent Form

Win%0.170
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-148.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

COL Recent Form

Win%0.127
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-199.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

SF Season Quality

Record22-34
Win%0.393
Run Diff-54
RD/Game-0.964

COL Season Quality

Record20-37
Win%0.351
Run Diff-77
RD/Game-1.351

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4496; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Willy AdamesSS 232975247 0.253 30870.286 53100 20 0.333 0.267 0.293 0.494 OK
Luis Arraez2B 226919311 0.338 10970.381 55111 01 0.200 0.359 0.393 0.465 OK
Casey SchmittLF 195769236 0.307 511320.351 55200 00 0.400 0.268 0.292 0.527 OK
Rafael Devers1B 229890226 0.254 291240.301 43000 10 0.000 0.234 0.280 0.403 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 194763220 0.288 12730.334 44211 00 0.500 0.322 0.354 0.441 OK
Matt Chapman3B 228875196 0.224 5770.316 44111 00 0.250 0.199 0.294 0.288 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 5116330 0.184 460.276 44000 02 0.000 0.208 0.315 0.336 OK
Eric HaaseC 309528 0.295 11180.316 44000 01 0.000 0.260 0.285 0.577 OK
Drew GilbertCF 11237792 0.244 8310.298 44211 01 0.500 0.237 0.275 0.369 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39369 44 35 0.250

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyCF 138461117 0.254 8620.291 44000 01 0.000 0.251 0.280 0.379 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 215808226 0.280 301160.357 44200 01 0.500 0.253 0.352 0.415 OK
Hunter GoodmanDH 211837206 0.246 55900.312 44111 01 0.250 0.225 0.276 0.467 OK
Willi Castro3B 171625162 0.259 8710.315 44000 03 0.000 0.250 0.298 0.343 OK
Troy JohnstonRF 183659216 0.328 10920.391 44211 00 0.500 0.269 0.326 0.391 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 203767170 0.222 10810.269 43100 02 0.333 0.221 0.283 0.393 OK
Sterlin ThompsonLF 277813 0.167 060.270 44111 01 0.250 0.144 0.221 0.223 OK
Edouard Julien2B 149523116 0.222 10590.319 44000 01 0.000 0.185 0.284 0.269 OK
Brett SullivanC 8127455 0.201 2320.247 44100 00 0.250 0.147 0.184 0.293 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36358 33 010 0.229

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Adrian HouserStarter 1050.15.57 1.5575.631 5.06330792 5.0 7 3
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 2321.54.60 1.34911.327 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 2524.52.57 0.9398.122 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 1814.05.14 1.64315.424 1.02000119 1.0 1 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan FeltnerStarter 519.36.53 1.5547.917 4.09441281 4.0 2 4
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1629.51.53 0.9497.926 1.2000117 1.2 1 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 2322.65.97 1.90311.529 1.00000021 1.0 0 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 2315.33.53 1.83013.523 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 2616.55.45 1.6368.716 1.00001117 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

SF wins 4-3


Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

TOR 29-30 (4.05 RPG / 4.1 RA)
4 - 0
BAL 27-32 (4.51 RPG / 5.22 RA)
WINNER: TOR wins 4-0 TARGET: TOR 2 - 1 BAL (TOR) Confidence: 55.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
TOR00202000047
BAL00000000005

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.263
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-105.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.179
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-149.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TOR Season Quality

Record29-29
Win%0.500
Run Diff-2
RD/Game-0.034

BAL Season Quality

Record26-32
Win%0.448
Run Diff-43
RD/Game-0.741

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7845; margin adjustment: -0.3295; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 163664142 0.214 23650.292 54000 10 0.000 0.228 0.290 0.386 OK
Nathan LukesLF 7023776 0.321 0340.361 55210 00 0.400 0.307 0.320 0.425 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 226828243 0.293 12990.393 43000 10 0.000 0.285 0.387 0.374 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 213805220 0.273 24740.351 44112 02 0.250 0.247 0.329 0.397 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 224838184 0.220 491300.309 43112 10 0.333 0.212 0.283 0.429 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 175592164 0.277 251040.320 44110 01 0.250 0.233 0.263 0.427 OK
Ernie Clement2B 222889268 0.301 22880.324 43100 00 0.333 0.278 0.299 0.457 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 195701161 0.230 251110.262 44000 01 0.000 0.224 0.245 0.421 OK
Tyler HeinemanC 7621135 0.166 3100.218 44100 01 0.250 0.178 0.218 0.299 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 44 35 0.206

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 252923243 0.263 9720.408 44200 00 0.500 0.279 0.414 0.377 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 2541086228 0.210 541340.265 43000 11 0.000 0.188 0.234 0.400 OK
Adley RutschmanC 160626167 0.267 311100.337 44000 03 0.000 0.254 0.319 0.452 OK
Pete Alonso1B 244935225 0.241 411480.323 44200 00 0.500 0.234 0.306 0.416 OK
Samuel BasalloDH 162592160 0.270 32880.327 44000 02 0.000 0.265 0.320 0.564 OK
Coby Mayo3B 151499106 0.212 21710.289 44100 01 0.250 0.239 0.313 0.448 OK
Leody TaverasCF 161545151 0.277 9890.369 43000 11 0.000 0.225 0.308 0.329 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 278720 0.230 5180.291 43000 11 0.000 0.233 0.301 0.376 OK
Jeremiah JacksonRF 170635152 0.239 21850.256 33000 02 0.000 0.197 0.211 0.306 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 00 311 0.156

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trey YesavageStarter 631.32.30 1.08610.135 5.13002687 5.1 6 0
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 2727.20.33 1.17613.641 1.10000120 1.1 1 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 2723.05.09 1.73917.244 1.00000218 1.0 2 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 2723.12.73 1.2996.216 1.12001221 1.1 2 0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon YoungStarter 734.73.63 1.4706.726 5.07442492 5.0 4 4
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2622.00.82 0.72711.528 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 2524.14.48 1.24511.230 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 2516.42.74 0.7938.816 0.20000012 0.2 0 0
Tyler WellsMiddle Reliever 2024.73.28 1.1749.526 1.10000018 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

TOR wins 4-0