| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ SF | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 | ARI | ARI | ARI wins 3-1 | 61% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| ATL @ BOS | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 3-1 | 60% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CHC @ PIT | 2 - 5 | 2 - 6 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 6-2 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CIN @ NYM | 3 - 4 | 2 - 5 | NYM | NYM | NYM wins 5-2 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| COL @ LAD | 1 - 5 | 1 - 5 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 5-1 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| HOU @ TEX | 2 - 3 | 1 - 5 | TEX | TEX | TEX wins 5-1 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| LAA @ DET | 1 - 2 | 1 - 2 | DET | DET | DET wins 2-1 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| MIA @ TOR | 2 - 3 | 1 - 4 | TOR | TOR | TOR wins 4-1 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| MIN @ CHW | 3 - 2 | 4 - 1 | MIN | MIN | MIN wins 4-1 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| NYY @ KC | 5 - 2 | 5 - 2 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 5-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| PHI @ SD | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | PHI | PHI | PHI wins 2-1 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| SEA @ OAK | 3 - 2 | 4 - 3 | SEA | SEA | SEA wins 4-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| STL @ MIL | 3 - 4 | 2 - 5 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 5-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| TB @ BAL | 3 - 2 | 3 - 1 | TB | TB | TB wins 3-1 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| WAS @ CLE | 1 - 3 | 2 - 3 | CLE | CLE | CLE wins 3-2 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
Quality edge: -1.3616; margin adjustment: -0.5719; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 218 | 923 | 255 | 0.276 | 40 | 146 | 0.322 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.294 | 0.337 | 0.527 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 218 | 803 | 245 | 0.305 | 32 | 128 | 0.407 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.406 | 0.539 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 213 | 755 | 167 | 0.221 | 9 | 75 | 0.339 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.343 | 0.342 | OK |
| Adrian Del Castillo | DH | 117 | 419 | 79 | 0.189 | 14 | 72 | 0.243 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.217 | 0.278 | 0.411 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 64 | 225 | 65 | 0.289 | 0 | 28 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.228 | 0.287 | 0.364 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 193 | 787 | 245 | 0.311 | 32 | 149 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.283 | 0.307 | 0.466 | OK |
| Jose Fernandez | 3B | 147 | 532 | 146 | 0.274 | 12 | 58 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.271 | 0.364 | OK |
| Aramis Garcia | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.247 | 0.313 | 0.401 | |
| Tommy Troy | LF | 11 | 34 | 15 | 0.441 | 0 | 0 | 0.537 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.307 | 0.434 | 0.523 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Willy Adames | SS | 227 | 955 | 239 | 0.250 | 30 | 86 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.284 | 0.501 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 221 | 899 | 297 | 0.330 | 10 | 89 | 0.374 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.283 | 0.323 | 0.411 | OK |
| Casey Schmitt | LF | 189 | 744 | 235 | 0.316 | 51 | 132 | 0.360 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.294 | 0.320 | 0.606 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 224 | 870 | 224 | 0.257 | 29 | 123 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.287 | 0.433 | OK |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 223 | 854 | 195 | 0.228 | 5 | 76 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.200 | 0.356 | 0.290 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 47 | 156 | 29 | 0.186 | 4 | 5 | 0.262 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.274 | 0.320 | OK |
| Daniel Susac | C | 50 | 178 | 63 | 0.354 | 0 | 36 | 0.410 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.274 | 0.331 | OK |
| Drew Gilbert | CF | 110 | 373 | 90 | 0.241 | 8 | 31 | 0.296 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.259 | 0.359 | OK |
| Will Brennan | RF | 19 | 47 | 4 | 0.085 | 0 | 0 | 0.085 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.173 | 0.184 | 0.238 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Soroka | Starter | 10 | 53.6 | 3.36 | 1.287 | 9.6 | 57 | 6.1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 95 | 6.1 | 6 | 0 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 7.5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Taylor Clarke | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 360.00 | 30.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trevor McDonald | Starter | 4 | 21.5 | 5.02 | 1.070 | 8.8 | 21 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 109 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.3 | 2.80 | 1.244 | 11.7 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 24 | 23.4 | 1.92 | 0.897 | 8.5 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Miller | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.0 | 5.54 | 1.692 | 15.9 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
ARI wins 3-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Quality edge: -2.5799; margin adjustment: -1.0836; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 181 | 697 | 164 | 0.235 | 10 | 55 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.345 | 0.349 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 206 | 788 | 206 | 0.261 | 12 | 120 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.255 | 0.313 | 0.379 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 238 | 928 | 251 | 0.270 | 68 | 199 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.342 | 0.592 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 234 | 916 | 246 | 0.269 | 34 | 120 | 0.328 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.311 | 0.387 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 225 | 856 | 197 | 0.230 | 31 | 129 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.326 | 0.451 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 189 | 734 | 221 | 0.301 | 48 | 128 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.347 | 0.366 | 0.634 | OK |
| Jorge Mateo | DH | 64 | 200 | 70 | 0.350 | 6 | 20 | 0.398 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.317 | 0.390 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 43 | 153 | 17 | 0.111 | 0 | 10 | 0.214 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.144 | 0.237 | 0.180 | OK |
| Chadwick Tromp | C | 13 | 33 | 11 | 0.333 | 0 | 6 | 0.333 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.184 | 0.225 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jarren Duran | LF | 210 | 867 | 172 | 0.198 | 31 | 121 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.203 | 0.261 | 0.379 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 189 | 705 | 194 | 0.275 | 18 | 79 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.286 | 0.413 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 221 | 870 | 247 | 0.284 | 26 | 88 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.310 | 0.372 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 211 | 779 | 220 | 0.282 | 49 | 157 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.284 | 0.353 | 0.490 | OK |
| Masataka Yoshida | DH | 107 | 352 | 92 | 0.261 | 4 | 26 | 0.351 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.181 | 0.272 | 0.337 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | C | 43 | 155 | 53 | 0.342 | 0 | 9 | 0.374 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.296 | 0.334 | OK |
| Nick Sogard | 2B | 30 | 102 | 31 | 0.304 | 0 | 5 | 0.408 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.347 | 0.439 | OK |
| Marcelo Mayer | SS | 155 | 520 | 107 | 0.206 | 7 | 41 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.149 | 0.200 | 0.211 | OK |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 3B | 59 | 171 | 51 | 0.298 | 4 | 30 | 0.375 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.258 | 0.346 | 0.413 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryce Elder | Starter | 11 | 66.8 | 2.02 | 1.018 | 8.1 | 60 | 6.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 107 | 6.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 16 | 16.2 | 1.11 | 0.926 | 11.1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 23 | 22.4 | 0.80 | 0.893 | 8.4 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 26 | 23.1 | 1.56 | 0.693 | 11.7 | 30 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Connelly Early | Starter | 10 | 52.6 | 3.42 | 1.217 | 8.6 | 50 | 5.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 94 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.2 | 0.52 | 0.872 | 12.0 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.2 | 3.28 | 1.146 | 11.7 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 10 | 7.5 | 4.80 | 1.467 | 14.4 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Greg Weissert | Middle Reliever | 22 | 17.6 | 4.09 | 1.534 | 10.7 | 21 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
ATL wins 3-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | x | 6 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.4727; margin adjustment: 0.1985; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 222 | 804 | 194 | 0.241 | 26 | 101 | 0.333 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.230 | 0.299 | 0.359 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 243 | 1015 | 259 | 0.255 | 21 | 155 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.311 | 0.339 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 236 | 877 | 208 | 0.237 | 30 | 147 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.359 | 0.425 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 243 | 989 | 258 | 0.261 | 17 | 76 | 0.354 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.281 | 0.354 | 0.386 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 227 | 871 | 196 | 0.225 | 52 | 108 | 0.356 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.330 | 0.424 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 171 | 651 | 164 | 0.252 | 32 | 78 | 0.351 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.280 | 0.332 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | DH | 137 | 429 | 91 | 0.212 | 23 | 72 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.200 | 0.287 | 0.352 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 144 | 528 | 164 | 0.311 | 6 | 63 | 0.387 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.297 | 0.355 | 0.380 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 204 | 708 | 139 | 0.196 | 33 | 117 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.172 | 0.284 | 0.309 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 180 | 596 | 177 | 0.297 | 21 | 105 | 0.409 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.337 | 0.440 | 0.591 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 212 | 843 | 233 | 0.276 | 61 | 166 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 0.381 | 0.547 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 231 | 844 | 224 | 0.265 | 18 | 148 | 0.393 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.289 | 0.393 | 0.455 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 193 | 778 | 243 | 0.312 | 0 | 94 | 0.366 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.298 | 0.339 | 0.373 | OK |
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 236 | 1013 | 278 | 0.274 | 52 | 169 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.338 | 0.383 | 0.518 | OK |
| Konnor Griffin | SS | 192 | 742 | 190 | 0.256 | 14 | 94 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.318 | 0.362 | OK |
| Marcell Ozuna | DH | 188 | 758 | 143 | 0.189 | 25 | 102 | 0.279 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.193 | 0.265 | 0.307 | OK |
| Endy Rodríguez | C | 21 | 64 | 18 | 0.281 | 0 | 8 | 0.446 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.421 | 0.351 | OK |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | RF | 14 | 45 | 8 | 0.178 | 8 | 21 | 0.315 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.212 | 0.329 | 0.530 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jameson Taillon | Starter | 10 | 53.7 | 5.36 | 1.304 | 7.9 | 47 | 5.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 97 | 5.1 | 5 | 4 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 12 | 9.5 | 2.84 | 1.579 | 11.4 | 12 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Caleb Thielbar | Middle Reliever | 12 | 8.8 | 3.07 | 1.364 | 12.3 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 23 | 20.1 | 3.13 | 1.592 | 12.1 | 27 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bubba Chandler | Starter | 10 | 46.3 | 4.86 | 1.490 | 9.1 | 47 | 4.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 85 | 4.2 | 4 | 1 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 25 | 24.4 | 2.21 | 0.820 | 11.4 | 31 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 23 | 21.4 | 4.63 | 1.402 | 6.7 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.4 | 3.10 | 1.322 | 14.5 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Evan Sisk | Middle Reliever | 18 | 19.3 | 1.87 | 1.192 | 12.1 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
PIT wins 6-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| NYM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: -0.3247; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Blake Dunn | RF | 46 | 189 | 55 | 0.291 | 5 | 14 | 0.371 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.300 | 0.324 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 238 | 975 | 293 | 0.301 | 65 | 193 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.349 | 0.529 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 107 | 409 | 118 | 0.289 | 31 | 98 | 0.379 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.301 | 0.386 | 0.581 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 3B | 233 | 870 | 215 | 0.247 | 49 | 154 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.257 | 0.357 | 0.435 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | DH | 113 | 418 | 103 | 0.246 | 10 | 51 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.328 | 0.404 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 124 | 419 | 122 | 0.291 | 35 | 87 | 0.373 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.360 | 0.523 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | 2B | 202 | 740 | 197 | 0.266 | 30 | 87 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.333 | 0.391 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 154 | 509 | 97 | 0.191 | 17 | 74 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.328 | 0.388 | OK |
| TJ Friedl | CF | 169 | 648 | 120 | 0.185 | 9 | 36 | 0.261 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.156 | 0.212 | 0.230 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 196 | 748 | 193 | 0.258 | 11 | 88 | 0.328 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.276 | 0.306 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 238 | 992 | 229 | 0.231 | 24 | 131 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.284 | 0.338 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 160 | 608 | 180 | 0.296 | 41 | 99 | 0.396 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.270 | 0.367 | 0.562 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | 1B | 173 | 644 | 150 | 0.233 | 24 | 95 | 0.274 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.183 | 0.215 | 0.299 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 216 | 799 | 188 | 0.235 | 19 | 90 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.228 | 0.269 | 0.373 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 56 | 189 | 54 | 0.286 | 4 | 20 | 0.405 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.367 | 0.370 | OK |
| Eric Wagaman | DH | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.119 | 0.134 | 0.190 | |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 178 | 639 | 159 | 0.249 | 14 | 88 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.226 | 0.297 | 0.367 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 92 | 276 | 52 | 0.188 | 0 | 31 | 0.251 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.163 | 0.208 | 0.258 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Abbott | Starter | 11 | 54.8 | 4.11 | 1.515 | 6.2 | 38 | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 96 | 5.0 | 6 | 4 |
| Graham Ashcraft | Middle Reliever | 25 | 24.9 | 2.17 | 1.165 | 11.6 | 32 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 22 | 20.3 | 3.99 | 1.330 | 9.3 | 21 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pierce Johnson | Middle Reliever | 24 | 17.8 | 4.04 | 1.517 | 10.1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Huascar Brazobán | Starter | 22 | 21.1 | 2.13 | 1.137 | 8.1 | 19 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 83 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.6 | 5.77 | 1.538 | 14.4 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.7 | 3.48 | 1.159 | 10.0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 22 | 16.5 | 1.64 | 1.455 | 12.5 | 23 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
NYM wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| LAD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | x | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: 3.5808; margin adjustment: 1.4; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | CF | 134 | 447 | 115 | 0.257 | 8 | 62 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.272 | 0.360 | OK |
| Tyler Freeman | RF | 131 | 484 | 117 | 0.242 | 10 | 56 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.184 | 0.211 | 0.259 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 210 | 795 | 225 | 0.283 | 30 | 116 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.264 | 0.321 | 0.452 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 206 | 821 | 204 | 0.248 | 54 | 87 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.264 | 0.446 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | LF | 178 | 638 | 215 | 0.337 | 10 | 92 | 0.401 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.336 | 0.411 | OK |
| Willi Castro | 3B | 166 | 604 | 160 | 0.265 | 8 | 67 | 0.322 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.319 | 0.354 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 199 | 757 | 168 | 0.222 | 8 | 77 | 0.267 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.209 | 0.246 | 0.327 | OK |
| Sterlin Thompson | DH | 24 | 72 | 13 | 0.181 | 0 | 6 | 0.262 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.137 | 0.183 | 0.214 | OK |
| Edouard Julien | 2B | 146 | 515 | 115 | 0.223 | 10 | 59 | 0.322 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.159 | 0.262 | 0.237 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 233 | 897 | 248 | 0.276 | 36 | 147 | 0.407 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.406 | 0.478 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 87 | 376 | 70 | 0.186 | 29 | 71 | 0.231 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.279 | 0.564 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 223 | 839 | 223 | 0.266 | 26 | 115 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.313 | 0.414 | 0.484 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 227 | 876 | 223 | 0.255 | 21 | 119 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.343 | 0.411 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 222 | 845 | 264 | 0.312 | 54 | 217 | 0.362 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.374 | 0.415 | 0.700 | OK |
| Will Smith | C | 170 | 646 | 164 | 0.254 | 21 | 98 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.278 | 0.345 | 0.462 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 187 | 665 | 178 | 0.268 | 52 | 80 | 0.371 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.249 | 0.349 | 0.467 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 200 | 739 | 208 | 0.281 | 29 | 137 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.291 | 0.356 | 0.441 | OK |
| Alex Freeland | 2B | 113 | 368 | 91 | 0.247 | 8 | 33 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.228 | 0.307 | 0.336 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Starter | 10 | 51.8 | 4.00 | 1.274 | 4.9 | 28 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 91 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 15 | 28.5 | 1.26 | 0.877 | 8.2 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 22 | 21.6 | 5.42 | 1.852 | 12.1 | 29 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever | 22 | 14.2 | 3.80 | 1.901 | 13.3 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Middle Reliever | 25 | 15.4 | 5.84 | 1.753 | 9.4 | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shohei Ohtani | Starter | 19 | 115.0 | 0.31 | 0.800 | 8.4 | 107 | 6.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 128 | 6.1 | 5 | 1 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 23 | 20.5 | 1.32 | 0.634 | 11.0 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 23 | 16.1 | 2.80 | 1.118 | 14.0 | 25 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hurt | Middle Reliever | 16 | 16.0 | 1.12 | 0.875 | 10.7 | 19 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
LAD wins 5-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.6772; margin adjustment: 0.2844; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 78 | 323 | 78 | 0.241 | 5 | 22 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.242 | 0.292 | 0.405 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 236 | 875 | 285 | 0.326 | 88 | 174 | 0.440 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.310 | 0.413 | 0.712 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 225 | 852 | 241 | 0.283 | 66 | 181 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.312 | 0.512 | OK |
| Taylor Trammell | LF | 35 | 120 | 41 | 0.342 | 0 | 19 | 0.397 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.257 | 0.320 | 0.385 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 205 | 713 | 155 | 0.217 | 19 | 82 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.318 | 0.416 | OK |
| Braden Shewmake | 3B | 65 | 233 | 62 | 0.266 | 8 | 24 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.196 | 0.208 | 0.304 | OK |
| Jake Meyers | CF | 61 | 235 | 53 | 0.226 | 9 | 23 | 0.290 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.241 | 0.331 | OK |
| Brice Matthews | 2B | 145 | 515 | 108 | 0.210 | 16 | 51 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.274 | 0.324 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 111 | 366 | 102 | 0.279 | 16 | 66 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.319 | 0.417 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joc Pederson | DH | 150 | 441 | 110 | 0.249 | 15 | 53 | 0.359 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.194 | 0.304 | 0.374 | OK |
| Alejandro Osuna | LF | 82 | 231 | 59 | 0.255 | 0 | 22 | 0.396 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.231 | 0.345 | 0.291 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 227 | 904 | 242 | 0.268 | 28 | 86 | 0.350 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.326 | 0.396 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 199 | 773 | 232 | 0.300 | 22 | 88 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.282 | 0.347 | 0.424 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 207 | 799 | 195 | 0.244 | 38 | 147 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.282 | 0.419 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 185 | 600 | 115 | 0.192 | 25 | 69 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.305 | 0.459 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | SS | 158 | 552 | 165 | 0.299 | 14 | 104 | 0.356 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.249 | 0.313 | 0.422 | OK |
| Danny Jansen | C | 126 | 420 | 78 | 0.186 | 13 | 43 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.163 | 0.233 | 0.320 | OK |
| Nicky Lopez | 2B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.102 | 0.118 | 0.164 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Mike Burrows | Starter | 10 | 54.7 | 5.92 | 1.572 | 7.9 | 48 | 4.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 107 | 4.2 | 4 | 4 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 20 | 20.3 | 3.10 | 1.478 | 8.0 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.9 | 7.85 | 2.349 | 12.7 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Nate Pearson | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.500 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob deGrom | Starter | 10 | 52.5 | 3.94 | 1.048 | 11.0 | 64 | 5.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 101 | 5.2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 19 | 23.6 | 1.14 | 0.466 | 8.8 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 1.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 20 | 23.3 | 1.55 | 0.730 | 5.0 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Martin | Middle Reliever | 10 | 7.4 | 8.51 | 2.162 | 8.5 | 7 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
TEX wins 5-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.5273; margin adjustment: 0.2215; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 248 | 979 | 234 | 0.239 | 45 | 120 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.373 | 0.483 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 240 | 858 | 210 | 0.245 | 62 | 135 | 0.409 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.376 | 0.443 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 1B | 113 | 422 | 106 | 0.251 | 13 | 85 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.323 | 0.447 | OK |
| Jorge Soler | DH | 212 | 798 | 174 | 0.218 | 36 | 131 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.293 | 0.375 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | LF | 12 | 38 | 20 | 0.526 | 4 | 12 | 0.571 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.333 | 0.382 | 0.455 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 227 | 895 | 221 | 0.247 | 32 | 128 | 0.296 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.256 | 0.407 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | 2B | 152 | 526 | 151 | 0.287 | 26 | 62 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.304 | 0.422 | OK |
| Donovan Walton | 3B | 13 | 53 | 5 | 0.094 | 0 | 0 | 0.158 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.171 | 0.211 | 0.321 | OK |
| Logan O'Hoppe | C | 119 | 405 | 93 | 0.230 | 4 | 46 | 0.326 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.316 | 0.335 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0.133 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Colt Keith | 3B | 155 | 510 | 146 | 0.286 | 0 | 23 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.301 | 0.333 | 0.419 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | SS | 231 | 888 | 267 | 0.301 | 14 | 107 | 0.401 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.312 | 0.404 | 0.482 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 197 | 737 | 177 | 0.240 | 48 | 142 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.317 | 0.461 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 226 | 820 | 255 | 0.311 | 17 | 107 | 0.411 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.377 | 0.395 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | RF | 107 | 348 | 56 | 0.161 | 5 | 36 | 0.219 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.160 | 0.216 | 0.230 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 207 | 715 | 143 | 0.200 | 28 | 76 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.189 | 0.288 | 0.347 | OK |
| Wenceel Pérez | CF | 128 | 449 | 76 | 0.169 | 7 | 30 | 0.220 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.186 | 0.246 | 0.327 | OK |
| Gage Workman | DH | 32 | 104 | 22 | 0.212 | 6 | 16 | 0.212 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.144 | 0.153 | 0.345 | OK |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 2B | 69 | 201 | 39 | 0.194 | 2 | 23 | 0.257 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.189 | 0.244 | 0.299 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0.188 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| José Soriano | Starter | 11 | 64.7 | 2.50 | 1.097 | 10.3 | 74 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 96 | 6.0 | 6 | 1 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 8 | 6.4 | 4.22 | 1.250 | 14.1 | 10 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 19 | 22.5 | 2.80 | 1.200 | 10.8 | 27 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 19 | 22.0 | 5.32 | 1.364 | 12.3 | 30 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Casey Mize | Starter | 8 | 41.8 | 2.58 | 1.029 | 9.3 | 43 | 5.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 93 | 5.2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenley Jansen | Middle Reliever | 16 | 13.4 | 4.03 | 1.119 | 12.8 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 23 | 22.1 | 1.22 | 1.629 | 6.1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Will Vest | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.9 | 9.06 | 1.727 | 11.0 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
DET wins 2-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 7 |
Quality edge: 0.136; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 234 | 892 | 279 | 0.313 | 26 | 84 | 0.397 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.348 | 0.431 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | C | 199 | 714 | 203 | 0.284 | 47 | 197 | 0.356 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.310 | 0.419 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 228 | 918 | 310 | 0.338 | 19 | 102 | 0.369 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.288 | 0.321 | 0.417 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | LF | 135 | 507 | 104 | 0.205 | 12 | 41 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.292 | 0.337 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 233 | 864 | 169 | 0.196 | 13 | 63 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.326 | 0.295 | OK |
| Connor Norby | DH | 181 | 612 | 139 | 0.227 | 18 | 62 | 0.334 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.294 | 0.318 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 146 | 462 | 106 | 0.229 | 11 | 93 | 0.283 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.283 | 0.394 | OK |
| Christopher Morel | 1B | 58 | 196 | 35 | 0.179 | 0 | 4 | 0.241 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.193 | 0.242 | 0.294 | OK |
| Graham Pauley | 3B | 88 | 273 | 48 | 0.176 | 3 | 24 | 0.227 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.137 | 0.188 | 0.234 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 61 | 207 | 67 | 0.324 | 0 | 30 | 0.369 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.326 | 0.340 | 0.427 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 217 | 800 | 233 | 0.291 | 12 | 97 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.296 | 0.383 | 0.378 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 204 | 773 | 218 | 0.282 | 24 | 74 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.284 | 0.357 | 0.422 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | DH | 171 | 584 | 162 | 0.277 | 25 | 104 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.243 | 0.274 | 0.466 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 216 | 816 | 180 | 0.221 | 45 | 125 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.296 | 0.380 | OK |
| Yohendrick Pinango | LF | 77 | 267 | 84 | 0.315 | 8 | 44 | 0.346 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.306 | 0.453 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 214 | 860 | 263 | 0.306 | 22 | 88 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.311 | 0.519 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 187 | 672 | 153 | 0.228 | 20 | 106 | 0.261 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.212 | 0.305 | OK |
| Tyler Heineman | C | 73 | 205 | 35 | 0.171 | 3 | 10 | 0.213 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.177 | 0.192 | 0.297 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Eury Pérez | Starter | 11 | 58.2 | 4.95 | 1.306 | 9.7 | 63 | 5.1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 100 | 5.1 | 2 | 3 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 14 | 12.3 | 8.05 | 1.545 | 14.6 | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 21 | 18.1 | 4.48 | 1.878 | 10.9 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Bender | Middle Reliever | 22 | 17.6 | 4.09 | 1.193 | 11.8 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kevin Gausman | Starter | 11 | 61.9 | 3.34 | 1.082 | 8.9 | 61 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 111 | 5.2 | 7 | 1 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 25 | 25.1 | 0.72 | 1.195 | 14.3 | 40 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 25 | 21.9 | 2.88 | 1.279 | 6.2 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Middle Reliever | 25 | 20.9 | 5.60 | 1.770 | 17.2 | 40 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
TOR wins 4-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.3739; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Byron Buxton | DH | 211 | 912 | 244 | 0.268 | 80 | 132 | 0.327 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.242 | 0.310 | 0.518 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 201 | 765 | 197 | 0.258 | 24 | 121 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.278 | 0.324 | 0.462 | OK |
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 147 | 510 | 148 | 0.290 | 8 | 54 | 0.397 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.336 | 0.374 | OK |
| Josh Bell | 1B | 209 | 794 | 176 | 0.222 | 21 | 125 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.267 | 0.318 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | CF | 160 | 582 | 135 | 0.232 | 18 | 64 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.197 | 0.275 | 0.378 | OK |
| Austin Martin | RF | 171 | 627 | 186 | 0.297 | 10 | 74 | 0.396 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.266 | 0.349 | 0.373 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | 2B | 206 | 768 | 184 | 0.240 | 5 | 81 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.312 | 0.321 | OK |
| Tristan Gray | SS | 87 | 285 | 62 | 0.218 | 13 | 58 | 0.272 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.296 | 0.315 | OK |
| Alex Jackson | C | 7 | 25 | 6 | 0.240 | 0 | 0 | 0.240 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.266 | 0.439 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 217 | 836 | 220 | 0.263 | 18 | 62 | 0.333 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.271 | 0.333 | 0.377 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | DH | 231 | 842 | 202 | 0.240 | 88 | 178 | 0.379 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.229 | 0.351 | 0.565 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 1B | 229 | 853 | 197 | 0.231 | 55 | 141 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.201 | 0.309 | 0.408 | OK |
| Randal Grichuk | RF | 29 | 59 | 16 | 0.271 | 8 | 19 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.263 | 0.446 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | 3B | 220 | 823 | 187 | 0.227 | 57 | 143 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.305 | 0.455 | OK |
| Edgar Quero | C | 118 | 404 | 71 | 0.176 | 5 | 55 | 0.252 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.180 | 0.275 | 0.232 | OK |
| Derek Hill | CF | 65 | 167 | 36 | 0.216 | 6 | 15 | 0.268 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.186 | 0.252 | 0.293 | OK |
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 134 | 465 | 112 | 0.241 | 5 | 44 | 0.357 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.224 | 0.282 | 0.328 | OK |
| Luisangel Acuña | SS | 103 | 313 | 53 | 0.169 | 0 | 17 | 0.239 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.155 | 0.211 | 0.193 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Connor Prielipp | Starter | 6 | 29.0 | 4.03 | 1.172 | 9.3 | 30 | 5.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 101 | 5.0 | 6 | 1 |
| Taylor Rogers | Middle Reliever | 22 | 15.9 | 2.83 | 1.824 | 9.1 | 16 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Eric Orze | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.5 | 3.95 | 1.561 | 9.2 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever | 15 | 18.6 | 5.32 | 1.828 | 8.2 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Anthony Banda | Middle Reliever | 26 | 17.5 | 7.71 | 1.600 | 10.3 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| David Sandlin | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 65 | 3.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.9 | 1.72 | 1.483 | 9.9 | 23 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
MIN wins 4-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
Quality edge: -2.5182; margin adjustment: -1.0576; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 103 | 383 | 104 | 0.272 | 23 | 57 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.338 | 0.521 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 207 | 784 | 229 | 0.292 | 69 | 150 | 0.394 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.309 | 0.404 | 0.604 | OK |
| Aaron Judge | RF | 240 | 869 | 229 | 0.264 | 74 | 151 | 0.400 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.300 | 0.435 | 0.595 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | CF | 230 | 841 | 234 | 0.278 | 36 | 159 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.391 | 0.577 | OK |
| Amed Rosario | 2B | 93 | 324 | 97 | 0.299 | 27 | 76 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.315 | 0.358 | 0.650 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | SS | 38 | 128 | 44 | 0.344 | 6 | 35 | 0.481 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.324 | 0.452 | 0.588 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 148 | 493 | 93 | 0.189 | 13 | 57 | 0.254 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.195 | 0.254 | 0.305 | OK |
| José Caballero | LF | 159 | 560 | 154 | 0.275 | 18 | 62 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.292 | 0.380 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 148 | 482 | 96 | 0.199 | 17 | 32 | 0.318 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.236 | 0.340 | 0.343 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 31 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 230 | 953 | 269 | 0.282 | 14 | 99 | 0.334 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.237 | 0.286 | 0.346 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 239 | 959 | 282 | 0.294 | 40 | 111 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.262 | 0.324 | 0.520 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 223 | 838 | 165 | 0.197 | 23 | 105 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.303 | 0.337 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | DH | 219 | 846 | 188 | 0.222 | 42 | 111 | 0.275 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.258 | 0.393 | OK |
| Carter Jensen | C | 183 | 628 | 148 | 0.236 | 23 | 98 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.289 | 0.356 | OK |
| Lane Thomas | CF | 111 | 325 | 75 | 0.231 | 6 | 32 | 0.363 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.251 | 0.377 | 0.365 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 176 | 615 | 137 | 0.223 | 18 | 40 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.171 | 0.240 | 0.295 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 111 | 350 | 80 | 0.229 | 10 | 46 | 0.245 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.145 | 0.194 | 0.263 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 176 | 580 | 131 | 0.226 | 11 | 71 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.196 | 0.324 | 0.290 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gerrit Cole | Starter | 1 | 6.0 | 0.00 | 0.833 | 3.0 | 2 | 5.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 85 | 5.0 | 6 | 0 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 23 | 21.6 | 5.00 | 1.667 | 11.7 | 28 | 1.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 1.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 25 | 15.6 | 2.88 | 1.923 | 17.3 | 30 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 25 | 16.9 | 1.60 | 1.124 | 5.9 | 11 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Noah Cameron | Starter | 9 | 46.5 | 4.84 | 1.484 | 8.5 | 44 | 5.1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 88 | 5.1 | 2 | 5 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 22 | 20.4 | 5.29 | 1.765 | 7.9 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick Mears | Middle Reliever | 20 | 16.8 | 4.29 | 1.488 | 7.5 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 22 | 20.1 | 1.79 | 0.995 | 12.1 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| John Schreiber | Middle Reliever | 22 | 17.3 | 3.64 | 1.676 | 6.2 | 12 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Lange | Middle Reliever | 21 | 22.6 | 5.18 | 1.460 | 9.2 | 23 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
NYY wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Quality edge: 0.5729; margin adjustment: 0.2406; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 235 | 916 | 222 | 0.242 | 97 | 180 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.336 | 0.567 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 236 | 1018 | 236 | 0.232 | 30 | 81 | 0.280 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.274 | 0.394 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 226 | 823 | 232 | 0.282 | 57 | 147 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.270 | 0.412 | 0.595 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 205 | 770 | 166 | 0.216 | 17 | 99 | 0.276 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.209 | 0.267 | 0.307 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 181 | 650 | 147 | 0.226 | 20 | 98 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.205 | 0.256 | 0.340 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 128 | 449 | 113 | 0.252 | 9 | 41 | 0.329 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.314 | 0.427 | OK |
| Adolis García | RF | 210 | 751 | 148 | 0.197 | 12 | 68 | 0.286 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.176 | 0.270 | 0.278 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 171 | 586 | 138 | 0.235 | 8 | 44 | 0.302 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.182 | 0.236 | 0.296 | OK |
| Edmundo Sosa | LF | 87 | 285 | 55 | 0.193 | 5 | 41 | 0.223 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.131 | 0.154 | 0.211 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 223 | 856 | 220 | 0.257 | 0 | 68 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.350 | 0.328 | OK |
| Miguel Andujar | 3B | 160 | 610 | 176 | 0.289 | 19 | 71 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.247 | 0.274 | 0.425 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | 1B | 165 | 558 | 144 | 0.258 | 32 | 85 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.340 | 0.458 | OK |
| Manny Machado | DH | 213 | 767 | 136 | 0.177 | 39 | 119 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.188 | 0.292 | 0.418 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 205 | 760 | 192 | 0.253 | 29 | 102 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.303 | 0.344 | OK |
| Ramón Laureano | LF | 191 | 711 | 159 | 0.224 | 29 | 99 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.279 | 0.423 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 212 | 828 | 164 | 0.198 | 17 | 87 | 0.274 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.171 | 0.239 | 0.275 | OK |
| Nick Castellanos | RF | 114 | 387 | 69 | 0.178 | 11 | 64 | 0.215 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.121 | 0.165 | 0.226 | OK |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 104 | 335 | 48 | 0.143 | 0 | 12 | 0.247 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.129 | 0.254 | 0.190 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cristopher Sánchez | Starter | 11 | 71.4 | 1.64 | 1.162 | 10.8 | 86 | 6.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 100 | 6.2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.2 | 1.67 | 1.049 | 14.4 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 24 | 22.5 | 4.00 | 1.244 | 10.8 | 27 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 23 | 13.7 | 7.88 | 2.482 | 15.8 | 24 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Walker Buehler | Starter | 10 | 44.7 | 5.23 | 1.454 | 8.3 | 41 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 82 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 23 | 22.5 | 0.80 | 0.844 | 18.8 | 47 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 19 | 16.5 | 1.09 | 1.030 | 5.5 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 24 | 23.6 | 4.96 | 1.271 | 12.6 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.9 | 3.62 | 1.141 | 11.5 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
PHI wins 2-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.4547; margin adjustment: -0.191; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 199 | 731 | 157 | 0.215 | 33 | 91 | 0.344 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.328 | 0.377 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 242 | 985 | 255 | 0.259 | 41 | 113 | 0.319 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.300 | 0.404 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | DH | 234 | 857 | 266 | 0.310 | 24 | 109 | 0.397 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.296 | 0.362 | 0.479 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 224 | 890 | 235 | 0.264 | 22 | 108 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.284 | 0.340 | 0.371 | OK |
| Rob Refsnyder | LF | 81 | 204 | 21 | 0.103 | 5 | 13 | 0.204 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.166 | 0.232 | 0.241 | OK |
| Victor Robles | RF | 19 | 57 | 18 | 0.316 | 0 | 3 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.289 | 0.298 | 0.445 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 219 | 772 | 182 | 0.236 | 13 | 107 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.217 | 0.278 | 0.328 | OK |
| Jhonny Pereda | C | 25 | 80 | 13 | 0.162 | 1 | 1 | 0.212 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.217 | 0.283 | OK |
| Colt Emerson | 3B | 29 | 89 | 23 | 0.258 | 4 | 16 | 0.365 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.328 | 0.450 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carlos Cortes | RF | 146 | 489 | 173 | 0.354 | 24 | 75 | 0.435 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.241 | 0.349 | 0.411 | OK |
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 244 | 885 | 255 | 0.288 | 38 | 171 | 0.443 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.243 | 0.389 | 0.410 | OK |
| Shea Langeliers | DH | 225 | 935 | 288 | 0.308 | 59 | 130 | 0.378 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.316 | 0.481 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 218 | 849 | 180 | 0.212 | 26 | 109 | 0.297 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.239 | 0.310 | 0.471 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | C | 25 | 96 | 19 | 0.198 | 0 | 0 | 0.238 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.235 | 0.308 | 0.410 | OK |
| Henry Bolte | CF | 41 | 146 | 45 | 0.308 | 0 | 16 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.335 | 0.350 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 184 | 642 | 177 | 0.276 | 6 | 58 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.242 | 0.308 | 0.325 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 130 | 482 | 118 | 0.245 | 26 | 69 | 0.300 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.260 | 0.359 | OK |
| Darell Hernaiz | SS | 107 | 335 | 89 | 0.266 | 4 | 29 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.203 | 0.278 | 0.270 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Logan Gilbert | Starter | 11 | 60.7 | 4.15 | 1.137 | 9.3 | 63 | 5.2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 108 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 22 | 19.5 | 5.08 | 1.385 | 15.2 | 33 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Brash | Middle Reliever | 15 | 12.4 | 0.00 | 0.645 | 8.0 | 11 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Middle Reliever | 26 | 22.2 | 2.03 | 1.351 | 8.9 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jeffrey Springs | Starter | 11 | 60.4 | 4.17 | 1.192 | 7.5 | 50 | 5.1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 103 | 5.1 | 3 | 4 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 28 | 19.5 | 3.69 | 2.154 | 12.9 | 28 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Joel Kuhnel | Middle Reliever | 21 | 17.5 | 2.57 | 1.257 | 6.7 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 24 | 21.5 | 1.67 | 0.791 | 9.2 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
SEA wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| MIL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 10 |
Quality edge: 1.7529; margin adjustment: 0.7362; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 239 | 937 | 220 | 0.235 | 42 | 117 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.202 | 0.297 | 0.328 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 239 | 912 | 236 | 0.259 | 27 | 115 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.335 | 0.361 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 224 | 905 | 257 | 0.284 | 31 | 156 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.309 | 0.397 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 220 | 859 | 273 | 0.318 | 69 | 198 | 0.386 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.340 | 0.525 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 194 | 710 | 164 | 0.231 | 24 | 109 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.268 | 0.296 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 195 | 752 | 172 | 0.229 | 5 | 88 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.184 | 0.240 | 0.270 | OK |
| Bryan Torres | LF | 17 | 65 | 18 | 0.277 | 0 | 0 | 0.373 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.334 | 0.328 | OK |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 124 | 434 | 99 | 0.228 | 16 | 36 | 0.269 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.241 | 0.320 | OK |
| Victor Scott II | CF | 152 | 458 | 80 | 0.175 | 9 | 27 | 0.245 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.170 | 0.233 | 0.242 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Christian Yelich | DH | 93 | 360 | 106 | 0.294 | 15 | 55 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.315 | 0.370 | 0.548 | OK |
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 85 | 371 | 108 | 0.291 | 4 | 23 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.339 | 0.396 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 222 | 831 | 244 | 0.294 | 34 | 149 | 0.414 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.254 | 0.388 | 0.423 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 214 | 868 | 264 | 0.304 | 17 | 153 | 0.376 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.323 | 0.389 | 0.447 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 176 | 670 | 195 | 0.291 | 34 | 127 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.305 | 0.362 | 0.552 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 162 | 567 | 137 | 0.242 | 7 | 106 | 0.353 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.350 | 0.434 | OK |
| Luis Rengifo | 3B | 163 | 593 | 128 | 0.216 | 0 | 61 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.186 | 0.274 | 0.252 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 182 | 665 | 149 | 0.224 | 14 | 66 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.302 | 0.336 | OK |
| David Hamilton | SS | 139 | 448 | 106 | 0.237 | 0 | 31 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.204 | 0.287 | 0.245 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dustin May | Starter | 10 | 53.3 | 5.07 | 1.445 | 7.1 | 42 | 5.0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 97 | 5.0 | 4 | 5 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 24 | 22.7 | 3.17 | 1.057 | 10.7 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.0 | 3.60 | 1.500 | 9.9 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 23 | 18.4 | 3.91 | 1.359 | 8.3 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chad Patrick | Starter | 12 | 39.6 | 2.73 | 1.237 | 6.6 | 29 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 75 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 21 | 17.7 | 4.58 | 1.299 | 10.7 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 18 | 18.0 | 3.00 | 1.056 | 11.0 | 22 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 24 | 29.5 | 2.44 | 1.458 | 14.3 | 47 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
MIL wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
Quality edge: -1.8427; margin adjustment: -0.7739; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 216 | 898 | 259 | 0.288 | 0 | 44 | 0.321 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.267 | 0.301 | 0.341 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 229 | 906 | 242 | 0.267 | 57 | 127 | 0.364 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.267 | 0.367 | 0.453 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 224 | 839 | 239 | 0.285 | 42 | 190 | 0.378 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.318 | 0.405 | 0.510 | OK |
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 215 | 850 | 270 | 0.318 | 30 | 151 | 0.394 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.302 | 0.354 | 0.466 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 111 | 340 | 95 | 0.279 | 4 | 56 | 0.389 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.218 | 0.311 | 0.279 | OK |
| Ryan Vilade | RF | 73 | 215 | 79 | 0.367 | 7 | 48 | 0.422 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.332 | 0.413 | 0.530 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 178 | 664 | 125 | 0.188 | 13 | 72 | 0.263 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.250 | 0.272 | OK |
| Carson Williams | SS | 29 | 103 | 14 | 0.136 | 0 | 13 | 0.191 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.139 | 0.203 | 0.217 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 69 | 177 | 37 | 0.209 | 1 | 14 | 0.285 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.145 | 0.209 | 0.213 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Taylor Ward | LF | 243 | 891 | 230 | 0.258 | 9 | 72 | 0.406 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.368 | 0.334 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 245 | 1050 | 220 | 0.210 | 46 | 122 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.236 | 0.351 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 150 | 586 | 148 | 0.253 | 31 | 109 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.219 | 0.297 | 0.413 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | DH | 234 | 890 | 215 | 0.242 | 40 | 147 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.232 | 0.326 | 0.413 | OK |
| Tyler O'Neill | RF | 102 | 308 | 51 | 0.166 | 8 | 28 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.173 | 0.262 | 0.254 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 1B | 143 | 472 | 94 | 0.199 | 19 | 69 | 0.274 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.276 | 0.332 | OK |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 2B | 165 | 618 | 152 | 0.246 | 21 | 85 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.247 | 0.353 | OK |
| Weston Wilson | 3B | 43 | 110 | 29 | 0.264 | 4 | 6 | 0.386 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.213 | 0.314 | 0.332 | OK |
| Blaze Alexander | CF | 123 | 408 | 99 | 0.243 | 0 | 30 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.212 | 0.261 | 0.257 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Steven Matz | Starter | 8 | 41.1 | 3.72 | 1.119 | 7.2 | 33 | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 95 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 24 | 21.4 | 2.52 | 1.028 | 10.9 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ian Seymour | Middle Reliever | 23 | 23.8 | 3.40 | 1.261 | 11.7 | 31 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.7 | 3.48 | 0.966 | 7.4 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trey Gibson | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 2.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 69 | 2.1 | 4 | 1 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 25 | 21.0 | 0.86 | 0.714 | 11.6 | 27 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nunez | Middle Reliever | 23 | 22.1 | 4.48 | 1.176 | 11.4 | 28 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever | 24 | 16.3 | 1.66 | 0.613 | 8.8 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Wells | Middle Reliever | 19 | 23.7 | 3.42 | 1.224 | 9.5 | 25 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Keegan Akin | Middle Reliever | 12 | 9.5 | 14.21 | 2.316 | 10.4 | 11 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
TB wins 3-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| CLE | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
Quality edge: 0.3294; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | RF | 262 | 1014 | 294 | 0.290 | 75 | 192 | 0.431 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.326 | 0.446 | 0.646 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 170 | 635 | 180 | 0.283 | 20 | 119 | 0.303 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.261 | 0.282 | 0.485 | OK |
| Curtis Mead | 3B | 140 | 462 | 118 | 0.255 | 32 | 84 | 0.378 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.331 | 0.448 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 234 | 893 | 263 | 0.295 | 48 | 202 | 0.384 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.280 | 0.365 | 0.520 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 242 | 1001 | 259 | 0.259 | 32 | 120 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.321 | 0.388 | OK |
| Jose Fernandez | DH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.236 | 0.262 | 0.353 | |
| Jorbit Vivas | 2B | 114 | 342 | 91 | 0.266 | 4 | 21 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.267 | 0.326 | 0.462 | OK |
| Drew Millas | C | 96 | 322 | 56 | 0.174 | 4 | 27 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.162 | 0.232 | 0.235 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 189 | 717 | 170 | 0.237 | 24 | 90 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.272 | 0.374 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0.143 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 108 | 390 | 114 | 0.292 | 12 | 48 | 0.412 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.292 | 0.409 | 0.458 | OK |
| José Ramírez | DH | 246 | 918 | 217 | 0.236 | 36 | 120 | 0.352 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.340 | 0.411 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 210 | 814 | 205 | 0.252 | 32 | 143 | 0.331 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.238 | 0.315 | 0.401 | OK |
| Kyle Manzardo | 1B | 163 | 585 | 123 | 0.210 | 16 | 58 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.290 | 0.334 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | LF | 187 | 721 | 184 | 0.255 | 38 | 114 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.191 | 0.216 | 0.361 | OK |
| Daniel Schneemann | 3B | 156 | 540 | 130 | 0.241 | 17 | 77 | 0.328 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.224 | 0.313 | 0.360 | OK |
| Steven Kwan | CF | 227 | 857 | 180 | 0.210 | 4 | 56 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.349 | 0.282 | OK |
| Austin Hedges | C | 78 | 242 | 61 | 0.252 | 5 | 17 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.220 | 0.304 | 0.340 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 199 | 665 | 201 | 0.302 | 14 | 104 | 0.381 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.346 | 0.400 | 0.452 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.143 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| PJ Poulin | Starter | 24 | 19.7 | 4.11 | 1.777 | 7.3 | 16 | 4.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 76 | 4.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Gus Varland | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.6 | 4.88 | 1.807 | 10.3 | 19 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 16 | 32.2 | 3.07 | 1.118 | 8.1 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard Lovelady | Middle Reliever | 16 | 13.1 | 2.06 | 1.832 | 10.3 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mitchell Parker | Middle Reliever | 12 | 26.3 | 5.48 | 1.217 | 8.6 | 25 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Clayton Beeter | Reliever | 12 | 11.4 | 3.16 | 1.228 | 10.3 | 13 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gavin Williams | Starter | 11 | 68.4 | 3.29 | 1.126 | 11.1 | 84 | 6.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 108 | 6.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 25 | 25.2 | 2.50 | 1.071 | 13.2 | 37 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 15 | 11.0 | 4.91 | 1.545 | 9.8 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Shawn Armstrong | Middle Reliever | 14 | 11.0 | 1.64 | 1.455 | 13.9 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
CLE wins 3-2 (Extra Innings - 10)