MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

May 26, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ SF4 - 14 - 3ARIARIARI wins 4-353%enhanced_ml
ATL @ BOS3 - 25 - 1ATLATLATL wins 5-153%enhanced_ml
CHC @ PIT4 - 35 - 2CHCCHCCHC wins 5-260%enhanced_ml
CIN @ NYM3 - 24 - 3CINCINCIN wins 4-351%enhanced_ml
COL @ LAD1 - 52 - 4LADLADLAD wins 4-253%enhanced_ml
HOU @ TEX3 - 43 - 5TEXTEXTEX wins 5-357%enhanced_ml
LAA @ DET2 - 42 - 3DETDETDET wins 3-257%enhanced_ml
MIA @ TOR2 - 13 - 1MIAMIAMIA wins 3-151%enhanced_ml
MIN @ CHW2 - 13 - 2MINMINMIN wins 3-253%enhanced_ml
NYY @ KC4 - 15 - 0NYYNYYNYY wins 5-053%enhanced_ml
PHI @ SD2 - 41 - 4SDSDSD wins 4-157%enhanced_ml
SEA @ OAK3 - 43 - 4OAKOAKOAK wins 4-351%enhanced_ml
STL @ MIL1 - 20 - 3MILMILMIL wins 3-058%enhanced_ml
TB @ BAL5 - 84 - 5BALBALBAL wins 5-460%enhanced_ml
WAS @ CLE2 - 32 - 3CLECLECLE wins 3-255%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants

ARI 29-24 (4.62 RPG / 4.42 RA)
4 - 3
SF 22-32 (3.65 RPG / 4.59 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 4-3 TARGET: ARI 4 - 1 SF (ARI) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ARI02100000148
SF01000000235

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.377
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-53.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SF Recent Form

Win%0.196
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-133.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ARI Season Quality

Record29-24
Win%0.547
Run Diff11
RD/Game0.208

SF Season Quality

Record22-32
Win%0.407
Run Diff-51
RD/Game-0.944

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.3616; margin adjustment: -0.5719; applied: True

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 4819955 0.276 8300.326 55111 01 0.200 0.308 0.359 0.525 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 5018155 0.304 7280.399 54100 13 0.250 0.297 0.381 0.559 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 5017238 0.221 2190.337 44100 00 0.250 0.211 0.334 0.334 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 4916745 0.269 7270.347 43211 10 0.667 0.227 0.300 0.401 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 165517 0.309 070.367 44000 02 0.000 0.246 0.307 0.395 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 4317552 0.297 7290.324 44112 00 0.250 0.200 0.233 0.318 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 2710024 0.240 3130.304 44210 00 0.500 0.207 0.277 0.355 OK
Adrian Del CastilloDH 2910318 0.175 2150.239 43000 11 0.000 0.170 0.246 0.264 OK
Tommy TroyLF 273 0.429 000.500 44000 01 0.000 0.216 0.307 0.584 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 44 38 0.229

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Willy AdamesSS 5321350 0.235 6170.276 43000 10 0.000 0.205 0.249 0.382 OK
Casey Schmitt2B 4517251 0.297 11290.339 44100 01 0.250 0.243 0.273 0.522 OK
Matt Chapman3B 5219947 0.236 1160.312 44111 03 0.250 0.226 0.295 0.341 OK
Rafael Devers1B 5420751 0.246 7270.291 44111 01 0.250 0.208 0.250 0.391 OK
Harrison BaderCF 259317 0.183 5130.214 44111 00 0.250 0.182 0.218 0.373 OK
Jesus RodriguezLF 10338 0.242 150.306 44000 02 0.000 0.179 0.231 0.257 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 12407 0.175 120.250 33000 00 0.000 0.179 0.250 0.281 OK
Eric HaaseC 8256 0.240 240.269 33000 00 0.000 0.182 0.219 0.411 OK
Victor BericotoRF 120 0.000 000.000 33100 00 0.333 0.168 0.181 0.263
TEAM TOTALS 33325 33 17 0.156

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eduardo RodriguezStarter 1059.42.27 1.2126.543 6.22001694 6.2 6 0
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.00110015 1.0 0 1
Taylor ClarkeMiddle Reliever 10.1360.00 30.0000.00 0.13220016 0.1 0 2

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler MahleStarter 1050.56.24 1.6049.654 4.26442688 4.2 6 4
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 2119.32.80 1.24411.725 1.00000019 1.0 0 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 2322.42.01 0.8488.421 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 1612.04.50 1.66715.821 1.00000019 1.0 0 0
Joel PegueroMiddle Reliever 97.73.51 1.2993.53 1.02001118 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

ARI wins 4-3


Atlanta Braves @ Boston Red Sox

ATL 36-18 (5.22 RPG / 3.33 RA)
5 - 1
BOS 22-30 (3.73 RPG / 4.04 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 5-1 TARGET: ATL 3 - 2 BOS (ATL) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ATL100100021511
BOS00000001015

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.255
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-75.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.154
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-117.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

ATL Season Quality

Record36-18
Win%0.667
Run Diff102
RD/Game1.889

BOS Season Quality

Record22-30
Win%0.423
Run Diff-16
RD/Game-0.308

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.562; margin adjustment: -1.076; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 4014936 0.242 2110.358 54000 10 0.000 0.212 0.326 0.328 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 5018848 0.255 3270.307 55210 02 0.400 0.241 0.282 0.388 OK
Matt Olson1B 5420955 0.263 14420.342 55211 01 0.400 0.200 0.284 0.393 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 5420857 0.274 8270.332 44200 00 0.500 0.237 0.294 0.349 OK
Austin Riley3B 5320045 0.225 8310.294 44100 00 0.250 0.223 0.282 0.381 OK
Eli WhiteDH 185211 0.212 290.236 44112 00 0.250 0.216 0.250 0.374 OK
Michael Harris IICF 4517549 0.280 10250.306 44211 00 0.500 0.223 0.248 0.411 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 10344 0.118 020.231 44111 01 0.250 0.170 0.277 0.230 OK
Sandy LeónC 6162 0.125 000.125 44000 00 0.000 0.179 0.192 0.268 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393811 55 14 0.289

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 4518536 0.195 6250.268 44111 00 0.250 0.184 0.252 0.369 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 4516545 0.273 3160.344 44100 01 0.250 0.212 0.267 0.349 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 5119858 0.293 6200.356 44100 02 0.250 0.223 0.282 0.351 OK
Willson Contreras1B 4917850 0.281 11330.373 44000 01 0.000 0.252 0.321 0.468 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 238020 0.250 160.337 43000 10 0.000 0.192 0.262 0.342 OK
Mickey GasperC 83211 0.344 020.364 43100 11 0.333 0.199 0.207 0.300 OK
Nick Sogard2B 7237 0.304 020.429 43100 10 0.333 0.202 0.330 0.374 OK
Marcelo MayerSS 4013227 0.205 2110.272 44000 01 0.000 0.163 0.223 0.252 OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa3B 164510 0.222 030.300 33000 02 0.000 0.182 0.262 0.239 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 11 38 0.156

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer StriderStarter 420.33.10 1.18212.027 6.13002597 6.1 5 0
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1515.20.00 0.72411.219 1.22110227 1.2 2 1
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 2221.40.84 0.9358.420 1.00001118 1.0 1 0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ranger SuarezStarter 947.52.46 1.0328.143 5.26220489 5.2 4 2
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1817.20.52 0.87212.023 1.11001021 1.1 0 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 2019.23.28 1.14611.725 1.02220019 1.0 0 2
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 107.54.80 1.46714.412 1.02110019 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-1


Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates

CHC 29-25 (4.7 RPG / 4.35 RA)
5 - 2
PIT 28-26 (4.78 RPG / 4.35 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 5-2 TARGET: CHC 4 - 3 PIT (CHC) Confidence: 59.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CHC00001030159
PIT00000002025

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.074
Avg Runs0.7
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-149.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.216
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-110.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CHC Season Quality

Record29-25
Win%0.537
Run Diff19
RD/Game0.352

PIT Season Quality

Record28-26
Win%0.519
Run Diff23
RD/Game0.426

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0463; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 5319143 0.225 6230.313 55211 02 0.400 0.189 0.280 0.353 OK
Nico Hoerner2B 5120752 0.251 4310.339 54210 00 0.500 0.209 0.299 0.317 OK
Michael Busch1B 5219043 0.226 6290.355 55213 01 0.400 0.202 0.325 0.420 OK
Alex Bregman3B 5221052 0.248 4150.335 54000 11 0.000 0.229 0.305 0.316 OK
Ian HappLF 5018539 0.211 10200.348 54111 11 0.250 0.165 0.296 0.312 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 3714035 0.250 7180.346 54000 12 0.000 0.186 0.274 0.299 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 3510625 0.236 6180.320 43000 01 0.000 0.194 0.300 0.308 OK
Carson KellyC 3312135 0.289 1130.368 44100 01 0.250 0.219 0.289 0.312 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 5017131 0.181 7250.281 43110 10 0.333 0.157 0.248 0.271 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42369 55 49 0.250

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Konnor GriffinSS 4517145 0.263 3190.324 55111 02 0.200 0.236 0.290 0.357 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 4618149 0.271 13330.361 43100 10 0.333 0.256 0.339 0.499 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 5118748 0.257 4310.383 43111 11 0.333 0.229 0.341 0.350 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 4417353 0.306 0210.360 43000 11 0.000 0.234 0.280 0.314 OK
Oneil CruzCF 5021355 0.258 11340.322 43000 11 0.000 0.207 0.266 0.368 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 4116230 0.185 5200.271 44100 01 0.250 0.168 0.251 0.274 OK
Esmerlyn ValdezRF 381 0.125 120.222 44000 00 0.000 0.194 0.276 0.341 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 4214039 0.279 4200.392 43100 11 0.333 0.236 0.350 0.403 OK
Henry DavisC 3210415 0.144 4100.239 44000 01 0.000 0.152 0.223 0.321 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37325 22 58 0.156

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jordan WicksStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 3.02113462 3.0 4 1
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 118.52.12 1.64711.611 2.20001138 2.2 1 0
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 128.83.07 1.36412.312 1.13111130 1.1 1 1
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 2320.13.13 1.59212.127 2.00000225 2.0 2 0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braxton AshcraftStarter 1060.72.97 1.0549.665 6.151116107 6.1 6 1
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2524.42.21 0.82011.431 1.00000017 1.0 0 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 2220.44.85 1.3736.615 1.02331223 1.0 2 3
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 2017.43.10 1.32214.528 0.20000114 0.2 1 0
Evan SiskMiddle Reliever 1819.31.87 1.19212.126 0.02112017 0.0 0 1

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-2


Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets

CIN 28-25 (4.45 RPG / 5.0 RA)
4 - 3
NYM 22-32 (3.85 RPG / 4.33 RA)
WINNER: CIN wins 4-3 TARGET: CIN 3 - 2 NYM (CIN) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CIN30001000047
NYM00000003035

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.302
Avg Runs1.6
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-131.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.420
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-107.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CIN Season Quality

Record28-25
Win%0.528
Run Diff-29
RD/Game-0.547

NYM Season Quality

Record22-32
Win%0.407
Run Diff-26
RD/Game-0.481

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1157; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Blake DunnRF 93612 0.333 120.400 55110 03 0.200 0.237 0.289 0.414 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 5321360 0.282 12350.347 44110 00 0.250 0.215 0.285 0.425 OK
Sal StewartDH 5319850 0.253 12340.351 44312 00 0.750 0.226 0.335 0.422 OK
Spencer Steer1B 4917747 0.266 7210.335 43000 11 0.000 0.239 0.303 0.372 OK
Eugenio Suárez3B 269422 0.234 290.314 44112 00 0.250 0.200 0.281 0.312 OK
Dane MyersCF 12408 0.200 360.327 43000 11 0.000 0.184 0.293 0.348 OK
JJ BledayLF 258924 0.270 7210.377 43000 13 0.000 0.205 0.314 0.439 OK
Tyler StephensonC 3712321 0.171 4150.273 44100 00 0.250 0.163 0.267 0.296 OK
Matt McLain2B 4818537 0.200 5200.295 44000 00 0.000 0.155 0.238 0.277 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 44 38 0.206

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 4617243 0.250 3180.317 43110 00 0.333 0.208 0.267 0.301 OK
Bo BichetteSS 5422050 0.227 5270.274 42000 10 0.000 0.215 0.260 0.327 OK
Juan SotoDH 3613539 0.289 10210.386 43113 11 0.333 0.254 0.354 0.557 OK
A.J. EwingCF 134312 0.279 140.392 44000 01 0.000 0.223 0.331 0.341 OK
Jared Young1B 6187 0.389 010.421 44210 00 0.500 0.246 0.289 0.409 OK
Brett Baty3B 4415438 0.247 3200.312 44000 00 0.000 0.211 0.278 0.339 OK
Marcus Semien2B 5419643 0.219 4190.268 44000 01 0.000 0.180 0.224 0.292 OK
MJ MelendezLF 236215 0.242 260.365 44000 01 0.000 0.175 0.264 0.318 OK
Luis TorrensC 226911 0.159 050.205 44100 01 0.250 0.158 0.197 0.253 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 33 25 0.156

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chase BurnsStarter 1058.31.85 0.9619.964 6.00002590 6.0 5 0
Graham AshcraftMiddle Reliever 2524.92.17 1.16511.632 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 2119.34.20 1.3999.821 1.04330016 1.0 0 3
Pierce JohnsonMiddle Reliever 2317.64.09 1.47710.220 0.20000019 0.2 0 0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
David PetersonStarter 1146.75.20 1.6069.449 4.16442482 4.1 4 4
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 1915.65.77 1.53814.425 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 2120.73.48 1.15910.023 1.01000118 1.0 1 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 2216.51.64 1.45512.523 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever 2221.12.13 1.1378.119 1.10000118 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

CIN wins 4-3


Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

COL 20-35 (4.04 RPG / 5.22 RA)
2 - 4
LAD 34-20 (5.17 RPG / 3.17 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 4-2 TARGET: COL 1 - 5 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
COL02000000026
LAD00040000x48

COL Recent Form

Win%0.113
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-186.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.302
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-58.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

COL Season Quality

Record20-34
Win%0.370
Run Diff-63
RD/Game-1.167

LAD Season Quality

Record33-20
Win%0.623
Run Diff106
RD/Game2.000

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 3.5451; margin adjustment: 1.4; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Willi Castro1B 3914037 0.264 2170.329 44000 01 0.000 0.228 0.296 0.338 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 269923 0.232 2110.309 44100 01 0.250 0.184 0.217 0.272 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 4917839 0.219 2160.269 43000 01 0.000 0.205 0.249 0.341 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 4618444 0.239 11180.300 44000 02 0.000 0.188 0.239 0.329 OK
Braxton FulfordDH 240 0.000 000.200 44100 01 0.250 0.165 0.307 0.254
Jake McCarthyCF 3812232 0.262 2170.300 44100 01 0.250 0.191 0.224 0.328 OK
Kyle Karros3B 4614330 0.210 1110.315 44100 00 0.250 0.164 0.269 0.244 OK
Troy JohnstonLF 4315550 0.323 2210.382 43110 11 0.333 0.219 0.287 0.329 OK
Chad Stevens2B 391 0.111 010.200 33112 00 0.333 0.165 0.241 0.248 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 22 18 0.182

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 4918751 0.273 8290.403 44111 01 0.250 0.258 0.394 0.458 OK
Andy PagesCF 5319857 0.288 11460.339 44110 02 0.250 0.244 0.300 0.448 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 5119250 0.260 6240.360 44110 02 0.250 0.233 0.358 0.436 OK
Mookie BettsSS 197913 0.165 4100.221 44100 02 0.250 0.185 0.237 0.328 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 5119047 0.247 4250.350 44000 01 0.000 0.217 0.327 0.383 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 4917749 0.277 7310.350 43113 11 0.333 0.263 0.339 0.463 OK
Will SmithC 3814535 0.241 4200.311 44100 02 0.250 0.189 0.268 0.286 OK
Miguel Rojas2B 186018 0.300 170.328 32100 01 0.500 0.226 0.256 0.336 OK
Enrique Hernández3B 122 1.000 011.000 33100 00 0.333 0.219 0.232 0.922 LARGE
TEAM TOTALS 34328 44 112 0.250

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle FreelandStarter 836.77.36 1.7718.635 4.16440986 4.1 9 4
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1528.51.26 0.8778.226 1.11000214 1.1 2 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 2221.65.42 1.85212.129 0.21000120 0.2 1 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 2214.23.80 1.90113.321 1.20001025 1.2 0 0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eric LauerStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 4.25221679 4.2 6 2
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 2320.51.32 0.63411.025 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 2316.12.80 1.11814.025 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 1616.01.12 0.87510.719 1.01000016 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-2


Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

HOU 24-31 (4.4 RPG / 5.11 RA)
3 - 5
TEX 24-29 (3.79 RPG / 3.85 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 5-3 TARGET: HOU 3 - 4 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 56.8% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
HOU000300000036
TEX0000030002510

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.436
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-154.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.208
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-119.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

HOU Season Quality

Record24-31
Win%0.436
Run Diff-39
RD/Game-0.709

TEX Season Quality

Record24-29
Win%0.453
Run Diff-3
RD/Game-0.057

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6772; margin adjustment: 0.2844; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 176917 0.246 040.303 55000 03 0.000 0.208 0.240 0.302 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 4817744 0.249 5200.338 44000 00 0.000 0.211 0.283 0.342 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 5419358 0.301 16330.415 43110 11 0.333 0.226 0.348 0.467 OK
Christian Walker1B 5419953 0.266 15400.338 44100 03 0.250 0.230 0.296 0.523 OK
Taylor TrammellLF 8279 0.333 040.400 44210 00 0.500 0.238 0.311 0.398 OK
Cam SmithRF 4917035 0.206 3150.303 44000 02 0.000 0.202 0.279 0.295 OK
Braden Shewmake2B 165714 0.246 260.259 44113 02 0.250 0.184 0.206 0.299 OK
Brice MatthewsCF 3512124 0.198 4120.240 44100 01 0.250 0.172 0.216 0.283 OK
César SalazarC 5141 0.071 000.188 44000 00 0.000 0.168 0.263 0.249 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37366 33 112 0.167

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 3810521 0.200 280.326 54210 11 0.500 0.205 0.343 0.327 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 205615 0.268 050.414 55000 01 0.000 0.244 0.340 0.333 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 5119853 0.268 6180.351 54110 10 0.250 0.214 0.294 0.394 OK
Josh Jung3B 4718155 0.304 5210.359 55110 00 0.200 0.236 0.296 0.373 OK
Jake Burger1B 4918945 0.238 9310.289 53000 21 0.000 0.219 0.278 0.434 OK
Evan CarterCF 4514325 0.175 5150.292 55312 01 0.600 0.161 0.266 0.289 OK
Ezequiel DuranSS 3913537 0.274 4220.333 54113 01 0.250 0.200 0.264 0.373 OK
Justin Foscue2B 124213 0.310 260.362 55100 02 0.200 0.219 0.270 0.376 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 227715 0.195 390.262 44100 02 0.250 0.178 0.242 0.322 OK
TEAM TOTALS 443910 55 49 0.256

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jason AlexanderStarter 312.17.44 1.7367.410 3.24001466 3.2 4 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 2020.33.10 1.4788.018 1.24220032 1.2 0 2
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 1914.97.85 2.34912.721 1.01111120 1.0 1 1
AJ BlubaughMiddle Reliever 2129.85.13 1.4777.224 1.10000328 1.1 3 0
Steven OkertMiddle Reliever 2618.94.76 1.32310.021 1.10001121 1.1 1 0
Nate PearsonReliever 22.00.00 0.5000.00 1.01221020 1.0 0 2

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack LeiterStarter 1052.84.77 1.43910.260 5.262218105 5.2 8 2
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 1822.50.80 0.4448.421 1.20000021 1.2 0 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1922.31.61 0.7625.213 1.20000221 1.2 2 0
Chris MartinMiddle Reliever 107.48.51 2.1628.57 1.00110213 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

TEX wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 10)


Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers

LAA 20-34 (4.02 RPG / 5.17 RA)
2 - 3
DET 21-33 (3.83 RPG / 4.3 RA)
WINNER: DET wins 3-2 TARGET: LAA 2 - 4 DET (DET) Confidence: 56.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAA10000100026
DET03000000x38

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.148
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-180.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.245
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-119.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAA Season Quality

Record20-34
Win%0.370
Run Diff-62
RD/Game-1.148

DET Season Quality

Record21-33
Win%0.389
Run Diff-25
RD/Game-0.463

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.713; margin adjustment: 0.2994; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 5421147 0.223 10240.332 44110 00 0.250 0.200 0.291 0.415 OK
Mike TroutCF 5318845 0.239 13280.399 44100 02 0.250 0.217 0.368 0.421 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 249120 0.220 2120.294 44312 00 0.750 0.181 0.247 0.299 OK
Jorge SolerDH 4918139 0.215 9300.303 44000 01 0.000 0.196 0.268 0.361 OK
Wade MecklerLF 263 0.500 130.571 44100 01 0.250 0.233 0.332 0.384 OK
Jo AdellRF 5420751 0.246 7280.295 44000 01 0.000 0.191 0.218 0.323 OK
Oswald Peraza3B 3512434 0.274 6140.343 33000 02 0.000 0.228 0.275 0.392 OK
Donovan Walton2B 270 0.000 000.125 33000 01 0.000 0.161 0.258 0.241
Logan O'HoppeC 3010020 0.200 1100.302 33000 02 0.000 0.178 0.258 0.249 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33336 22 010 0.182

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle3B 5119455 0.284 3190.388 55000 02 0.000 0.224 0.327 0.376 OK
Dillon DinglerC 4416739 0.234 10300.316 43000 10 0.000 0.198 0.275 0.418 OK
Riley GreeneLF 5319260 0.312 4240.405 44000 02 0.000 0.220 0.306 0.346 OK
Colt KeithDH 3512233 0.270 050.308 43100 11 0.333 0.211 0.247 0.307 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 4916934 0.201 7190.310 43210 10 0.667 0.183 0.281 0.353 OK
Zach McKinstrySS 268815 0.170 170.240 43100 01 0.333 0.170 0.234 0.240 OK
Gage Workman2B 6235 0.217 130.217 43000 02 0.000 0.183 0.192 0.400 OK
Matt VierlingCF 3512728 0.220 3180.289 44211 00 0.500 0.190 0.264 0.326 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 3010716 0.150 050.202 44212 01 0.500 0.154 0.209 0.219 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37328 33 39 0.250

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack KochanowiczStarter 1055.74.69 1.3826.641 5.26332797 5.2 7 3
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 1922.05.32 1.36412.330 0.01000022 0.0 0 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 1922.52.80 1.20010.827 1.11001220 1.1 2 0
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 75.45.00 1.29615.09 1.00000017 1.0 0 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Keider MonteroStarter 947.73.96 1.0486.032 5.24220683 5.2 6 2
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 1613.44.03 1.11912.819 1.11000320 1.1 3 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2322.11.22 1.6296.115 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
Will VestMiddle Reliever 1612.86.33 1.48411.216 1.01000019 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

DET wins 3-2


Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays

MIA 26-29 (4.35 RPG / 4.44 RA)
3 - 1
TOR 25-29 (4.0 RPG / 4.22 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 3-1 TARGET: MIA 2 - 1 TOR (MIA) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIA01200000036
TOR00010000016

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.340
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-108.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.245
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-103.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIA Season Quality

Record26-29
Win%0.473
Run Diff-5
RD/Game-0.091

TOR Season Quality

Record25-29
Win%0.463
Run Diff-12
RD/Game-0.222

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.146; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 5420563 0.307 6190.388 55000 01 0.000 0.242 0.324 0.402 OK
Liam HicksDH 4416145 0.280 11440.351 54000 10 0.000 0.214 0.291 0.417 OK
Otto LopezSS 5220869 0.332 4220.363 54000 10 0.000 0.246 0.279 0.376 OK
Kyle StowersRF 3111525 0.217 3100.308 44210 01 0.500 0.196 0.270 0.381 OK
Connor Norby1B 4615233 0.217 4140.326 43100 11 0.333 0.177 0.267 0.295 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 5018636 0.194 3140.320 44212 00 0.500 0.169 0.281 0.280 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 217512 0.160 0100.229 44000 00 0.000 0.161 0.224 0.228 OK
Joe MackC 165110 0.196 060.255 41000 20 0.000 0.180 0.241 0.265 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 3010428 0.269 1170.315 44111 00 0.250 0.213 0.261 0.376 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39336 33 53 0.182

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 3413426 0.194 5120.275 44100 00 0.250 0.187 0.263 0.382 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 4717746 0.260 5160.335 43000 11 0.000 0.222 0.297 0.364 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 4013739 0.285 5200.320 44000 02 0.000 0.262 0.299 0.402 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 5119141 0.215 10270.294 44000 01 0.000 0.172 0.248 0.298 OK
Yohendrick PinangoLF 196520 0.308 190.338 44111 00 0.250 0.226 0.260 0.342 OK
Ernie Clement2B 5120260 0.297 4190.322 43200 10 0.667 0.246 0.279 0.429 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 4616639 0.235 5270.271 44100 02 0.250 0.176 0.209 0.289 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 278421 0.250 4100.344 44000 01 0.000 0.204 0.307 0.320 OK
Lenyn Sosa1B 217013 0.186 140.194 43100 00 0.333 0.166 0.182 0.267 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 11 27 0.182

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sandy AlcantaraStarter 1169.24.03 1.2866.248 6.03002599 6.0 5 0
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 1412.38.05 1.54514.620 1.02110111 1.0 1 1
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 2118.14.48 1.87810.922 1.1000004 1.1 0 0
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 2217.64.09 1.19311.823 0.21000114 0.2 1 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braydon FisherStarter 2725.03.24 1.20011.231 5.05224394 5.0 3 2
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 2525.10.72 1.19514.340 1.10000014 1.1 0 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 2521.92.88 1.2796.215 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 2520.95.60 1.77017.240 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever 2713.45.37 2.01517.526 0.20000011 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 3-1


Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

MIN 26-28 (4.61 RPG / 4.57 RA)
3 - 2
CHW 27-26 (4.49 RPG / 4.77 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 3-2 TARGET: MIN 2 - 1 CHW (MIN) Confidence: 52.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIN00020100036
CHW00200000026

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.269
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-107.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.255
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-75.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record26-28
Win%0.481
Run Diff2
RD/Game0.037

CHW Season Quality

Record27-26
Win%0.509
Run Diff-15
RD/Game-0.283

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2781; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonDH 4519050 0.263 16260.322 44000 01 0.000 0.240 0.292 0.509 OK
Brooks Lee3B 4817945 0.251 6250.309 44000 02 0.000 0.234 0.287 0.414 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 3411834 0.288 2130.396 43100 10 0.333 0.256 0.349 0.396 OK
Kody Clemens1B 3713432 0.239 4130.325 43111 10 0.333 0.213 0.270 0.352 OK
Austin MartinRF 3713539 0.289 2140.394 44111 00 0.250 0.222 0.313 0.359 OK
Victor CaratiniC 3411521 0.183 2160.286 44211 01 0.500 0.170 0.248 0.268 OK
Tristan GraySS 227216 0.222 3140.278 44100 01 0.250 0.190 0.252 0.291 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 4817842 0.236 1180.317 44000 00 0.000 0.209 0.278 0.302 OK
James OutmanCF 154810 0.208 030.255 43000 11 0.000 0.189 0.242 0.355 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 33 36 0.182

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 3110928 0.257 1100.359 55100 01 0.200 0.212 0.264 0.324 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 5118443 0.234 18370.374 42000 11 0.000 0.212 0.344 0.437 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 4918143 0.238 12310.364 43000 11 0.000 0.211 0.322 0.431 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 5018640 0.215 13320.318 44000 00 0.000 0.179 0.262 0.350 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 4918650 0.269 4130.340 44112 01 0.250 0.220 0.298 0.344 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 3914434 0.236 3200.277 44000 01 0.000 0.190 0.235 0.327 OK
Tristan PetersCF 3911829 0.246 2110.310 43210 11 0.667 0.199 0.266 0.329 OK
Drew RomoC 165110 0.196 5100.317 44000 01 0.000 0.180 0.278 0.382 OK
Rikuu NishidaRF 131 0.333 000.333 44200 01 0.500 0.195 0.207 0.288 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37336 22 38 0.182

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joe RyanStarter 1156.23.04 0.9799.861 6.052236103 6.0 6 2
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 2114.93.02 1.8799.115 0.20000016 0.2 0 0
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 2120.53.95 1.5619.221 1.1000009 1.1 0 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever 1418.45.38 1.8488.317 1.01000220 1.0 2 0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sean BurkeStarter 1051.64.19 1.2408.046 6.141124100 6.1 4 1
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 0.21111016 0.2 0 1
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.10000018 1.1 0 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 0.2111029 0.2 2 1

Game Summary

MIN wins 3-2


New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals

NYY 32-22 (4.78 RPG / 3.52 RA)
5 - 0
KC 22-32 (3.89 RPG / 4.37 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 5-0 TARGET: NYY 4 - 1 KC (NYY) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYY00220100058
KC00000000003

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.269
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-72.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

KC Recent Form

Win%0.157
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-150.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

NYY Season Quality

Record32-22
Win%0.593
Run Diff68
RD/Game1.259

KC Season Quality

Record22-32
Win%0.407
Run Diff-26
RD/Game-0.481

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.0185; margin adjustment: -0.8478; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 4315729 0.185 4220.309 55212 00 0.400 0.205 0.322 0.343 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 5419649 0.250 17320.377 53211 20 0.667 0.208 0.324 0.426 OK
Cody BellingerLF 5218851 0.271 7310.378 54112 00 0.250 0.242 0.354 0.467 OK
Paul Goldschmidt1B 228020 0.250 5120.341 54000 10 0.000 0.215 0.292 0.429 OK
Ben RiceDH 4517046 0.271 15310.365 55000 02 0.000 0.200 0.285 0.413 OK
Amed Rosario3B 227219 0.264 4140.316 44000 00 0.000 0.219 0.278 0.386 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 5018747 0.251 5190.329 44110 02 0.250 0.247 0.321 0.391 OK
Anthony VolpeSS 9266 0.231 050.412 43210 11 0.667 0.203 0.361 0.332 OK
Austin WellsC 3811820 0.169 460.288 43000 10 0.000 0.159 0.272 0.277 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41358 55 55 0.229

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 5120955 0.263 3200.319 44000 01 0.000 0.208 0.261 0.325 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 5421463 0.294 8240.360 43100 10 0.333 0.223 0.287 0.395 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 5018838 0.202 5230.290 44000 01 0.000 0.182 0.278 0.301 OK
Salvador PerezC 5220043 0.215 9250.263 44000 03 0.000 0.211 0.252 0.383 OK
Carter JensenDH 4414933 0.221 6230.312 44000 00 0.000 0.183 0.272 0.307 OK
Lane ThomasLF 247515 0.200 160.330 32000 10 0.000 0.179 0.299 0.249 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 4315236 0.237 490.310 33000 01 0.000 0.183 0.251 0.313 OK
Nick Loftin2B 15467 0.152 070.273 33100 01 0.333 0.140 0.231 0.229 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 4213134 0.260 3110.315 33100 01 0.333 0.179 0.226 0.297 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32303 00 28 0.100

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cam SchlittlerStarter 1164.61.53 0.88210.475 6.13001693 6.1 6 0
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2321.65.00 1.66711.728 1.00001015 1.0 0 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 2515.62.88 1.92317.330 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2516.91.60 1.1245.911 0.20000111 0.2 1 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bailey FalterStarter 47.110.14 2.9587.66 3.05444380 3.0 3 4
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 2220.45.29 1.7657.918 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Nick MearsMiddle Reliever 2016.84.29 1.4887.514 1.03110022 1.0 0 1
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 2220.11.79 0.99512.127 2.00000125 2.0 1 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever 2217.33.64 1.6766.212 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Alex LangeMiddle Reliever 2122.65.18 1.4609.223 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-0


Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres

PHI 27-27 (4.0 RPG / 4.39 RA)
1 - 4
SD 31-22 (3.98 RPG / 3.92 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 4-1 TARGET: PHI 2 - 4 SD (SD) Confidence: 56.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PHI00010000015
SD00300001x410

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.167
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-130.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SD Recent Form

Win%0.216
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-123.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PHI Season Quality

Record27-27
Win%0.500
Run Diff-21
RD/Game-0.389

SD Season Quality

Record31-22
Win%0.585
Run Diff3
RD/Game0.057

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5729; margin adjustment: 0.2406; applied: True

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 5119345 0.233 21370.354 44000 03 0.000 0.204 0.308 0.486 OK
Trea TurnerSS 5221748 0.221 5160.274 44000 01 0.000 0.173 0.235 0.278 OK
Bryce Harper1B 5319352 0.269 12320.360 43100 12 0.333 0.226 0.323 0.412 OK
Brandon MarshRF 4617556 0.320 5240.348 43100 10 0.333 0.238 0.276 0.407 OK
Alec Bohm3B 4918038 0.211 5220.275 44000 01 0.000 0.183 0.248 0.326 OK
Bryson Stott2B 4315636 0.231 5230.284 44111 00 0.250 0.209 0.266 0.368 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 3311425 0.219 180.291 43000 11 0.000 0.178 0.244 0.253 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 4314436 0.250 2110.321 44100 02 0.250 0.168 0.232 0.291 OK
Edmundo SosaLF 237415 0.203 2110.231 33100 00 0.333 0.160 0.188 0.294 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 11 310 0.156

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 5119249 0.255 0150.339 54100 12 0.250 0.251 0.343 0.327 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 5018344 0.240 6220.310 54100 11 0.250 0.194 0.264 0.279 OK
Gavin SheetsLF 4113834 0.246 7190.329 44100 00 0.250 0.231 0.316 0.420 OK
Manny Machado3B 5118231 0.170 8250.265 44210 00 0.500 0.152 0.250 0.307 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 4015143 0.285 5170.312 44000 00 0.000 0.212 0.241 0.393 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 4818637 0.199 4190.273 44100 02 0.250 0.158 0.235 0.263 OK
Ty France1B 248425 0.298 5140.330 44011 01 0.000 0.241 0.270 0.425 OK
Ramón LaureanoRF 4416335 0.215 6200.297 43212 10 0.667 0.169 0.247 0.319 OK
Freddy FerminC 288913 0.146 030.250 43211 10 0.667 0.139 0.233 0.217 OK
TEAM TOTALS 383410 44 46 0.294

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron NolaStarter 1048.86.27 1.6199.451 4.28333295 4.2 2 3
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 1615.21.78 1.11814.224 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 2321.53.77 1.16310.926 1.01001113 1.0 1 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 2313.77.88 2.48215.824 0.10000116 0.1 1 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 2217.02.65 1.2359.518 1.01110216 1.0 2 1

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Randy VásquezStarter 1053.53.03 1.2157.645 5.24112691 5.2 6 1
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 2322.50.80 0.84418.847 1.01000218 1.0 2 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 1916.51.09 1.0305.510 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 2322.65.18 1.28312.732 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

SD wins 4-1


Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics

SEA 26-29 (4.13 RPG / 3.89 RA)
3 - 4
OAK 27-27 (4.33 RPG / 4.59 RA)
WINNER: OAK wins 4-3 TARGET: SEA 3 - 4 OAK (OAK) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SEA10020000035
OAK00040000x47

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.321
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-108.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.255
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-125.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record25-29
Win%0.463
Run Diff6
RD/Game0.111

OAK Season Quality

Record27-26
Win%0.509
Run Diff-7
RD/Game-0.132

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1735; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 4415932 0.201 7180.339 54000 11 0.000 0.183 0.291 0.343 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 5521957 0.260 9230.322 43000 10 0.000 0.237 0.293 0.413 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 5519759 0.299 6250.390 44000 01 0.000 0.250 0.330 0.477 OK
Josh Naylor1B 5120050 0.250 5240.317 43111 11 0.333 0.209 0.280 0.296 OK
Rob RefsnyderDH 14434 0.093 120.149 43000 12 0.000 0.153 0.205 0.238 OK
Mitch GarverC 185511 0.200 250.371 44100 02 0.250 0.193 0.352 0.332 OK
Cole Young2B 5519146 0.241 3260.321 44210 00 0.500 0.201 0.270 0.315 OK
Victor RoblesRF 5153 0.200 010.200 44112 02 0.250 0.188 0.199 0.322 OK
Colt Emerson3B 8246 0.250 140.357 43000 10 0.000 0.214 0.296 0.412 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37325 33 59 0.156

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CortesRF 3511739 0.333 5170.415 44111 00 0.250 0.257 0.353 0.439 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 5318954 0.286 8370.444 44213 01 0.500 0.257 0.420 0.408 OK
Shea LangeliersC 4920161 0.303 13280.373 43000 11 0.000 0.211 0.281 0.407 OK
Brent RookerDH 3613927 0.194 7250.278 44110 00 0.250 0.181 0.258 0.303 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 5019239 0.203 5240.287 44100 02 0.250 0.194 0.277 0.335 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 4515944 0.277 2150.346 43000 10 0.000 0.204 0.280 0.306 OK
Zack Gelof3B 3111526 0.226 6170.282 43210 10 0.667 0.174 0.228 0.313 OK
Lawrence ButlerCF 3412021 0.175 3120.283 44000 00 0.000 0.146 0.254 0.229 OK
Darell HernaizSS 288623 0.267 170.357 32000 10 0.000 0.221 0.305 0.303 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35317 44 44 0.226

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emerson HancockStarter 1058.23.09 1.0659.360 6.063334106 6.0 4 3
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 2118.54.86 1.35115.632 0.00000014 0.0 0 0
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 2521.22.12 1.3689.322 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 2518.92.86 1.64010.522 1.0111004 1.0 0 1
Cooper CriswellMiddle Reliever 1921.43.36 1.1687.618 0.0000105 0.0 0 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis SeverinoStarter 1160.54.31 1.4719.564 5.13335398 5.1 3 3
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 2718.53.89 2.27013.127 0.20000213 0.2 2 0
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 2117.52.57 1.2006.713 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 2421.51.67 0.7919.222 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Justin SternerMiddle Reliever 2520.74.78 1.49810.925 0.10000112 0.1 1 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 2420.16.72 1.69210.724 0.22000115 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

OAK wins 4-3


St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers

STL 29-23 (4.5 RPG / 4.56 RA)
0 - 3
MIL 31-20 (4.92 RPG / 3.53 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 3-0 TARGET: STL 1 - 2 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 57.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
STL00000000004
MIL00000102x37

STL Recent Form

Win%0.154
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff-117.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.396
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-69.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

STL Season Quality

Record29-23
Win%0.558
Run Diff-3
RD/Game-0.058

MIL Season Quality

Record31-20
Win%0.608
Run Diff71
RD/Game1.392

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.5251; margin adjustment: 0.6405; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 5019547 0.241 9250.362 44100 01 0.250 0.202 0.301 0.317 OK
Iván HerreraC 5219551 0.262 6260.387 43100 02 0.333 0.216 0.314 0.393 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 5019358 0.301 15420.370 44000 01 0.000 0.234 0.298 0.488 OK
Alec Burleson1B 4919657 0.291 7350.359 43100 10 0.333 0.244 0.315 0.393 OK
José FermínLF 12408 0.200 140.233 43000 11 0.000 0.182 0.223 0.288 OK
Masyn WinnSS 4517040 0.235 1180.309 44000 03 0.000 0.166 0.242 0.266 OK
Bryan TorresLF 3113 0.273 120.385 43000 10 0.000 0.188 0.300 0.310 OK
Yohel PozoDH 4165 0.312 020.312 43000 00 0.000 0.190 0.199 0.309 OK
Victor Scott IICF 4412725 0.197 270.259 44100 01 0.250 0.186 0.247 0.280 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36314 00 39 0.129

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Christian YelichDH 218221 0.256 3110.322 44100 01 0.250 0.204 0.276 0.398 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 187922 0.278 150.321 43000 10 0.000 0.226 0.274 0.371 OK
Brice Turang2B 4817851 0.287 7300.410 44100 02 0.250 0.236 0.368 0.394 OK
William ContrerasC 4719058 0.305 4310.376 43210 10 0.667 0.277 0.348 0.398 OK
Jake Bauers1B 4015144 0.291 7280.363 44000 02 0.000 0.245 0.310 0.397 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 3712631 0.246 2250.356 44211 01 0.500 0.228 0.332 0.384 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 3513129 0.221 0140.285 44112 01 0.250 0.202 0.261 0.286 OK
Sal FrelickRF 4315633 0.212 3160.275 43000 10 0.000 0.176 0.231 0.257 OK
David HamiltonSS 3711327 0.239 080.333 42000 20 0.000 0.213 0.299 0.296 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36317 33 57 0.226

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael McGreevyStarter 1055.42.44 1.0116.037 6.051125111 6.0 5 1
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2422.73.17 1.05710.727 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2420.03.60 1.5009.922 1.02222227 1.0 2 2

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle HarrisonStarter 945.21.79 1.08411.759 5.230027100 5.2 7 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 2016.74.85 1.25710.219 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 1717.03.18 1.05911.622 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 2429.52.75 1.49214.347 1.10000031 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 3-0


Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles

TB 34-17 (4.76 RPG / 4.02 RA)
4 - 5
BAL 24-30 (4.39 RPG / 5.41 RA)
WINNER: BAL wins 5-4 TARGET: TB 5 - 8 BAL (BAL) Confidence: 60.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TB101020000410
BAL00210000259

TB Recent Form

Win%0.333
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-65.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.170
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-167.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TB Season Quality

Record34-17
Win%0.667
Run Diff38
RD/Game0.745

BAL Season Quality

Record24-30
Win%0.444
Run Diff-55
RD/Game-1.019

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.0969; margin adjustment: -0.8807; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 4719354 0.280 080.312 55310 00 0.600 0.233 0.271 0.315 OK
Junior Caminero3B 5019552 0.267 13270.357 55200 00 0.400 0.247 0.342 0.414 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 4817948 0.268 9400.366 54211 01 0.500 0.231 0.335 0.420 OK
Yandy DíazDH 4818558 0.314 8330.390 55200 00 0.400 0.284 0.343 0.496 OK
Richie Palacios2B 278221 0.256 1130.367 42012 10 0.000 0.235 0.333 0.328 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 4115128 0.185 3150.257 43011 11 0.000 0.210 0.277 0.310 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 151 0.200 120.200 44100 00 0.250 0.178 0.186 0.308 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 215013 0.260 150.345 43000 10 0.000 0.217 0.292 0.368 OK
Oliver DunnSS 000 0.000 000.000 44000 02 0.000 0.252 0.316 0.396
TEAM TOTALS 403510 44 34 0.286

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 5319349 0.254 2150.403 55100 00 0.200 0.205 0.350 0.325 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 5322650 0.221 11260.275 55000 03 0.000 0.217 0.264 0.391 OK
Pete Alonso1B 5420448 0.235 10330.319 54311 11 0.750 0.227 0.310 0.427 OK
Samuel BasalloC 3713836 0.261 7170.318 55111 01 0.200 0.215 0.274 0.396 OK
Leody TaverasCF 3511832 0.271 2190.377 55212 01 0.400 0.218 0.319 0.356 OK
Jeremiah JacksonDH 4115239 0.257 6250.272 43111 11 0.333 0.216 0.233 0.345 OK
Colton CowserRF 277814 0.179 170.270 43000 10 0.000 0.177 0.268 0.294 OK
Blaze Alexander3B 3210524 0.229 060.289 43110 10 0.333 0.196 0.254 0.263 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 4122 0.167 130.267 42000 10 0.000 0.178 0.283 0.306 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41359 55 57 0.257

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Griffin JaxStarter 1525.22.86 1.3498.624 5.04222494 5.0 4 2
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 2421.42.52 1.02810.926 1.01002024 1.0 0 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 2323.83.40 1.26111.731 1.10000218 1.1 2 0
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 2420.73.48 0.9667.417 0.21111115 0.2 1 1
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 117.46.08 2.29715.813 0.03220014 0.0 0 2

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane BazStarter 1055.05.07 1.5097.948 5.09331397 5.0 3 3
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2521.00.86 0.71411.627 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 2322.14.48 1.17611.428 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 2416.31.66 0.6138.816 1.00002114 1.0 1 0
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 116.811.91 2.64710.68 1.01110016 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

BAL wins 5-4


Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians

WAS 29-27 (5.43 RPG / 5.48 RA)
2 - 3
CLE 32-25 (4.16 RPG / 3.95 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 3-2 TARGET: WAS 2 - 3 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 54.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
WAS10000001026
CLE00003000x35

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.291
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-129.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.370
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff-84.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

WAS Season Quality

Record28-27
Win%0.509
Run Diff-6
RD/Game-0.109

CLE Season Quality

Record32-24
Win%0.571
Run Diff15
RD/Game0.268

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4705; margin adjustment: 0.1976; applied: True

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodLF 5521056 0.267 14350.405 55200 01 0.400 0.260 0.390 0.482 OK
Curtis Mead3B 238724 0.276 6150.370 44100 00 0.250 0.230 0.310 0.478 OK
Andrés Chaparro1B 6142 0.143 010.294 42111 11 0.500 0.174 0.307 0.321 OK
CJ AbramsSS 5319757 0.289 12460.381 44000 01 0.000 0.223 0.307 0.480 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 7297 0.241 110.267 44211 01 0.500 0.194 0.226 0.328 OK
Daylen LileDH 5421857 0.261 7260.317 44000 00 0.000 0.204 0.261 0.353 OK
Jacob YoungCF 4617140 0.234 7230.284 43000 11 0.000 0.217 0.255 0.412 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 4715630 0.192 0160.294 44000 01 0.000 0.163 0.254 0.213 OK
Keibert RuizC 299925 0.253 4200.269 43000 10 0.000 0.228 0.248 0.455 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37336 22 36 0.182

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Travis Bazzana2B 248725 0.287 3100.392 44113 02 0.250 0.247 0.332 0.402 OK
José Ramírez3B 5620647 0.228 8240.347 43000 11 0.000 0.212 0.320 0.364 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 4718046 0.256 7300.340 44110 00 0.250 0.204 0.295 0.360 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 3612925 0.194 3120.281 44000 02 0.000 0.208 0.289 0.360 OK
Daniel SchneemannCF 3913533 0.244 4170.325 32000 11 0.000 0.198 0.280 0.328 OK
Angel MartínezRF 4216342 0.258 9260.301 33000 01 0.000 0.194 0.222 0.378 OK
Steven KwanLF 5118638 0.204 1120.327 33110 01 0.333 0.186 0.309 0.255 OK
Patrick BaileyC 8233 0.130 130.200 33100 00 0.333 0.159 0.217 0.271 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 5317149 0.287 4270.369 33100 00 0.333 0.245 0.320 0.383 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31295 33 28 0.172

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cade CavalliStarter 1151.84.00 1.48610.661 5.05331685 5.0 6 3
Andrew AlvarezReliever 412.22.95 1.06611.816 1.00001014 1.0 0 0
Richard LoveladyReliever 1613.12.06 1.83210.315 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Clayton BeeterReliever 1211.43.16 1.22810.313 1.00000119 1.0 1 0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joey CantilloStarter 1153.93.17 1.3738.551 6.041115104 6.0 5 1
Shawn ArmstrongReliever 1310.01.80 1.50014.416 1.00001025 1.0 0 0
Codi HeuerReliever 22.24.09 1.81812.33 1.02110019 1.0 0 1
Colin HoldermanReliever 1416.01.69 0.87511.821 1.00001118 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 3-2