MLB Predictions — May 25, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ SF	2 - 3	2 - 3	SF	SF	SF wins 3-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CHC @ PIT	3 - 2	4 - 2	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 4-2	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CIN @ NYM	2 - 3	1 - 3	NYM	NYM	NYM wins 3-1	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
COL @ LAD	2 - 6	2 - 5	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 5-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
HOU @ TEX	2 - 4	2 - 5	TEX	TEX	TEX wins 5-2	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIA @ TOR	2 - 3	2 - 3	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 3-2	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
MIN @ CHW	3 - 1	3 - 2	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 3-2	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYY @ KC	2 - 3	1 - 5	KC	KC	KC wins 5-1	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PHI @ SD	4 - 3	4 - 2	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 4-2	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
SEA @ OAK	4 - 6	4 - 8	OAK	OAK	OAK wins 8-4	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
STL @ MIL	1 - 4	3 - 4	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 4-3	62%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TB @ BAL	5 - 1	4 - 2	TB	TB	TB wins 4-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
WAS @ CLE	3 - 5	3 - 4	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants

ARI 29-24 (4.62 RPG / 4.42 RA)

2 - 3

SF 22-32 (3.65 RPG / 4.59 RA)

WINNER: SF wins 3-2 TARGET: ARI 2 - 3 SF (SF) Confidence: 52.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	5
SF	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	x	3	11

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.365

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff-54.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SF Recent Form

Win%0.212

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-130.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ARI Season Quality

Record28-24

Win%0.538

Run Diff7

RD/Game0.135

SF Season Quality

Record22-31

Win%0.415

Run Diff-47

RD/Game-0.887

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.2065; margin adjustment: -0.5067; applied: True

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ketel Marte	2B	208	873	230	0.263	35	121	0.313	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.335	0.381	0.576	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	208	763	235	0.308	32	128	0.407	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.358	0.439	0.692	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	203	705	157	0.223	9	70	0.347	4	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.500	0.227	0.343	0.341	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	186	648	184	0.284	29	115	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.286	0.347	0.478	OK
Adrian Del Castillo	DH	111	404	73	0.181	11	66	0.233	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.175	0.239	0.281	OK
Ryan Waldschmidt	CF	55	184	61	0.332	0	28	0.400	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.280	0.346	0.441	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	115	426	108	0.254	9	60	0.312	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.242	0.295	0.366	OK
Jose Fernandez	1B	142	515	142	0.276	12	58	0.309	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.221	0.249	0.311	OK
Tommy Troy	LF	4	16	8	0.500	0	0	0.500	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.278	0.293	0.863	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	2	2	4	10	0.156

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Willy Adames	SS	218	918	225	0.245	25	81	0.277	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.232	0.270	0.412	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	216	882	293	0.332	10	89	0.377	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0.667	0.287	0.329	0.405	OK
Casey Schmitt	LF	180	703	221	0.314	46	122	0.362	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.304	0.341	0.636	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	216	842	216	0.257	29	111	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.258	0.301	0.481	OK
Matt Chapman	3B	215	834	195	0.234	5	76	0.319	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.262	0.335	0.366	OK
Daniel Susac	C	46	162	63	0.389	0	36	0.447	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.229	0.299	0.356	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	40	134	25	0.187	4	5	0.259	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.220	0.293	0.309	OK
Harrison Bader	CF	98	374	69	0.184	19	54	0.218	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.199	0.232	0.415	OK
Drew Gilbert	RF	105	360	87	0.242	8	31	0.298	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.228	0.268	0.348	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	11	3	3	2	9	0.314

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Merrill Kelly	Starter	7	40.3	5.81	1.538	6.0	27	5.0	7	3	3	2	8	107	5.0	8	3
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	2	1.2	15.00	3.333	7.5	1	1.0	3	0	0	0	1	27	1.0	1	0
Taylor Clarke	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	360.00	30.000	0.0	0	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Landen Roupp	Starter	10	53.6	3.36	1.175	10.2	61	5.2	4	2	2	4	7	99	5.2	7	2
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	21	19.3	2.80	1.244	11.7	25	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	23	22.4	2.01	0.848	8.4	21	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	16	12.0	4.50	1.667	15.8	21	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

SF wins 3-2

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates

CHC 29-25 (4.7 RPG / 4.35 RA)

4 - 2

PIT 28-26 (4.78 RPG / 4.35 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 4-2 TARGET: CHC 3 - 2 PIT (CHC) Confidence: 55.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	8
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	3

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.113

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-144.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.196

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff-111.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHC Season Quality

Record29-24

Win%0.547

Run Diff20

RD/Game0.377

PIT Season Quality

Record27-26

Win%0.509

Run Diff22

RD/Game0.415

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0189; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	214	776	190	0.245	26	101	0.336	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.229	0.394	0.374	OK
Ian Happ	LF	219	843	192	0.228	52	104	0.359	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.215	0.331	0.423	OK
Michael Busch	1B	227	841	199	0.237	26	143	0.373	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.249	0.372	0.464	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	235	957	242	0.253	17	76	0.350	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.250	0.332	0.337	OK
Michael Conforto	RF	78	221	71	0.321	10	38	0.444	4	4	3	1	2	0	0	0.750	0.181	0.307	0.370	OK
Pedro Ramirez	2B	5	13	4	0.308	0	4	0.471	4	2	0	1	1	2	1	0.000	0.155	0.324	0.559	OK
Moisés Ballesteros	DH	130	407	85	0.209	23	72	0.288	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.177	0.331	0.330	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	83	277	65	0.235	12	33	0.327	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.213	0.268	0.351	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	197	687	139	0.202	33	117	0.304	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.194	0.284	0.335	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	4	4	4	8	0.229

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Spencer Horwitz	1B	172	572	161	0.281	17	97	0.399	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.273	0.390	0.496	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	204	811	217	0.268	61	162	0.363	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.265	0.351	0.508	OK
Bryan Reynolds	RF	223	812	212	0.261	18	140	0.393	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.280	0.407	0.396	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	184	737	233	0.316	0	89	0.372	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.265	0.310	0.323	OK
Oneil Cruz	CF	228	985	258	0.262	52	165	0.326	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.242	0.295	0.487	OK
Marcell Ozuna	DH	179	717	138	0.192	25	97	0.287	3	2	1	1	2	1	1	0.500	0.211	0.287	0.352	OK
Konnor Griffin	SS	183	710	185	0.261	14	94	0.320	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.225	0.288	0.348	OK
Jhostynxon Garcia	LF	14	50	14	0.280	0	1	0.333	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.249	0.310	0.311	OK
Henry Davis	C	115	388	58	0.149	12	37	0.252	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.155	0.228	0.309	OK
TEAM TOTALS									31	30	3	2	2	1	8	0.100

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ben Brown	Starter	15	37.5	2.16	1.013	9.6	40	5.2	2	1	1	1	8	81	5.2	8	1
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	11	8.5	2.12	1.647	11.6	11	2.1	0	0	0	0	0	27	2.1	0	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	12	8.8	3.07	1.364	12.3	12	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Carmen Mlodzinski	Starter	10	47.9	4.13	1.461	8.3	44	5.0	5	3	3	2	3	98	5.0	3	3
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	24	23.4	2.31	0.855	11.5	30	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18	1.0	2	0
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	22	20.4	4.85	1.373	6.6	15	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	21	1.0	1	1
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	20	17.4	3.10	1.322	14.5	28	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Evan Sisk	Middle Reliever	18	19.3	1.87	1.192	12.1	26	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 4-2

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets

CIN 28-25 (4.45 RPG / 5.0 RA)

1 - 3

NYM 22-32 (3.85 RPG / 4.33 RA)

WINNER: NYM wins 3-1 TARGET: CIN 2 - 3 NYM (NYM) Confidence: 54.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4
NYM	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	x	3	7

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.308

Avg Runs1.6

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff-137.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-103.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CIN Season Quality

Record27-25

Win%0.519

Run Diff-34

RD/Game-0.654

NYM Season Quality

Record22-31

Win%0.415

Run Diff-21

RD/Game-0.396

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1014; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Blake Dunn	CF	36	149	50	0.336	5	14	0.393	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.254	0.313	0.376	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	228	925	283	0.306	65	183	0.376	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.303	0.377	0.599	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	97	364	98	0.269	26	93	0.365	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.239	0.332	0.500	OK
Sal Stewart	3B	224	833	205	0.246	49	149	0.357	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.235	0.400	0.436	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	104	381	85	0.223	10	41	0.288	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.194	0.255	0.297	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	120	411	118	0.287	35	87	0.360	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.249	0.317	0.541	OK
Spencer Steer	RF	193	709	193	0.272	30	75	0.342	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.267	0.322	0.447	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	145	473	83	0.175	13	56	0.285	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.184	0.319	0.282	OK
Matt McLain	2B	205	798	172	0.216	22	90	0.314	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.179	0.263	0.298	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	4	1	1	1	6	0.129

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carson Benge	DH	187	717	188	0.262	11	83	0.326	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.221	0.290	0.307	OK
Bo Bichette	SS	230	960	213	0.222	24	131	0.268	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.213	0.256	0.309	OK
Mark Vientos	1B	167	624	146	0.234	24	95	0.276	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.184	0.218	0.307	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	208	770	178	0.231	14	85	0.279	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.198	0.243	0.285	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	48	157	46	0.293	4	20	0.431	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.276	0.397	0.405	OK
Tyrone Taylor	RF	100	302	58	0.192	6	42	0.220	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.130	0.183	0.218	OK
Nick Morabito	LF	9	25	0	0.000	0	0	0.138	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.145	0.160	0.222
Brett Baty	3B	172	621	155	0.250	14	88	0.316	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.235	0.319	0.348	OK
Luis Torrens	C	85	251	46	0.183	0	31	0.252	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.130	0.215	0.209	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	30	7	3	3	1	6	0.233

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Lodolo	Starter	3	14.3	7.55	1.608	6.9	11	4.2	6	3	3	1	2	87	4.2	2	3
Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	24	23.9	2.26	1.213	11.3	30	1.1	1	0	0	0	3	5	1.1	3	0
Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	21	19.3	4.20	1.399	9.8	21	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.2	0	0
Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	23	17.6	4.09	1.477	10.2	20	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.1	1	0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nolan McLean	Starter	10	56.6	3.66	1.060	11.0	69	5.2	3	1	1	1	6	93	5.2	6	1
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	19	15.6	5.77	1.538	14.4	25	2.1	1	0	0	0	0	12	2.1	0	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	21	20.7	3.48	1.159	10.0	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

NYM wins 3-1

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

COL 20-34 (4.06 RPG / 5.22 RA)

2 - 5

LAD 33-20 (5.17 RPG / 3.17 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 5-2 TARGET: COL 2 - 6 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	7
LAD	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	x	5	7

COL Recent Form

Win%0.115

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-186.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.288

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed2.6

Run Diff-58.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

COL Season Quality

Record20-34

Win%0.370

Run Diff-63

RD/Game-1.167

LAD Season Quality

Record33-20

Win%0.623

Run Diff106

RD/Game2.000

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 3.5451; margin adjustment: 1.4; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	CF	126	415	107	0.258	8	62	0.298	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.238	0.271	0.365	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	199	796	201	0.253	51	84	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.242	0.294	0.427	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	210	795	225	0.283	30	116	0.356	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.266	0.322	0.454	OK
Tyler Freeman	RF	122	443	108	0.244	10	56	0.325	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.167	0.203	0.233	OK
Troy Johnston	LF	170	606	207	0.342	10	92	0.408	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.304	0.405	0.420	OK
Willi Castro	2B	159	579	146	0.252	8	63	0.313	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.253	0.324	0.338	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	190	720	155	0.215	4	69	0.264	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.194	0.234	0.281	OK
Sterlin Thompson	DH	19	59	11	0.186	0	4	0.284	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.140	0.198	0.235	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	171	527	116	0.220	4	40	0.335	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.188	0.306	0.264	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	2	2	3	14	0.206

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	226	879	244	0.278	36	143	0.407	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.279	0.418	0.469	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	78	339	55	0.162	19	42	0.215	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.189	0.229	0.351	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	214	808	209	0.259	26	106	0.365	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.261	0.406	0.451	OK
Andy Pages	CF	213	804	236	0.294	49	198	0.348	4	4	2	1	0	0	2	0.500	0.291	0.346	0.562	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	218	835	218	0.261	21	119	0.358	4	2	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.282	0.373	0.493	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	193	714	201	0.282	29	137	0.357	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.319	0.400	0.514	OK
Will Smith	C	161	614	154	0.251	16	88	0.317	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.246	0.321	0.342	OK
Hyeseong Kim	2B	120	396	103	0.260	4	32	0.328	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.180	0.248	0.254	OK
Enrique Hernández	3B	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	3	1	1	3	1	0	0.333	0.255	0.326	0.403
TEAM TOTALS									37	30	7	5	5	4	10	0.233

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tanner Gordon	Starter	7	27.1	6.64	1.513	10.0	30	4.0	5	3	3	2	3	81	4.0	3	3
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	15	28.5	1.26	0.877	8.2	26	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	25	1.1	2	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	21	20.6	4.81	1.845	12.7	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	20	1.0	3	0
Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	21	14.1	3.83	1.844	13.4	21	1.2	2	2	2	1	2	31	1.2	2	2

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Emmet Sheehan	Starter	9	43.8	5.14	1.324	10.5	51	5.1	5	2	2	2	8	102	5.1	8	2
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	23	20.5	1.32	0.634	11.0	25	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20	1.0	2	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	22	15.9	2.83	1.069	14.2	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	19	1.0	2	0
Kyle Hurt	Middle Reliever	15	15.0	0.60	0.867	10.8	18	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Blake Treinen	Middle Reliever	19	14.0	1.93	1.286	9.6	15	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-2

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

HOU 23-31 (4.31 RPG / 5.2 RA)

2 - 5

TEX 24-28 (3.87 RPG / 3.75 RA)

WINNER: TEX wins 5-2 TARGET: HOU 2 - 4 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 59.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	7
TEX	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	x	5	8

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.407

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-164.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.250

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-109.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

HOU Season Quality

Record23-31

Win%0.426

Run Diff-48

RD/Game-0.889

TEX Season Quality

Record24-28

Win%0.462

Run Diff6

RD/Game0.115

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0577; margin adjustment: 0.4442; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	69	295	69	0.234	0	13	0.274	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.223	0.253	0.294	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	196	735	185	0.252	22	93	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.266	0.336	0.399	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	226	835	270	0.323	73	144	0.442	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.275	0.415	0.512	OK
Christian Walker	1B	216	816	236	0.289	61	166	0.360	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.285	0.347	0.623	OK
Jake Meyers	CF	55	209	53	0.254	9	23	0.322	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.230	0.281	0.425	OK
Cam Smith	RF	196	681	146	0.214	15	78	0.308	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.224	0.313	0.349	OK
Zach Dezenzo	LF	39	114	26	0.228	3	6	0.296	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.206	0.284	0.364	OK
Nick Allen	2B	41	110	37	0.336	4	8	0.425	4	4	3	1	1	0	1	0.750	0.253	0.327	0.411	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	107	350	94	0.269	16	62	0.333	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.229	0.288	0.411	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	2	2	3	4	0.206

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	1B	142	413	106	0.257	11	41	0.366	5	4	2	1	2	1	1	0.500	0.227	0.334	0.341	OK
Alejandro Osuna	LF	74	207	59	0.285	0	22	0.415	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.342	0.411	0.420	OK
Brandon Nimmo	DH	219	880	238	0.270	28	86	0.349	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.242	0.317	0.408	OK
Ezequiel Duran	3B	151	530	157	0.296	14	96	0.353	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.217	0.278	0.370	OK
Evan Carter	CF	179	580	103	0.178	21	57	0.294	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.141	0.263	0.272	OK
Justin Foscue	2B	46	151	46	0.305	7	27	0.366	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.218	0.282	0.389	OK
Andrew McCutchen	RF	77	181	41	0.227	4	17	0.300	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.190	0.266	0.284	OK
Danny Jansen	C	123	411	78	0.190	13	43	0.291	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.171	0.242	0.344	OK
Michael Helman	SS	9	23	5	0.217	0	0	0.308	4	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.500	0.211	0.295	0.395	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	32	8	5	5	6	9	0.250

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tatsuya Imai	Starter	5	15.7	9.17	1.975	12.0	21	3.2	7	4	4	3	5	79	3.2	5	4
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	20	20.3	3.10	1.478	8.0	18	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.0	0	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	19	14.9	7.85	2.349	12.7	21	0.1	0	1	1	0	1	16	0.1	1	1
AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever	21	29.8	5.13	1.477	7.2	24	1.1	0	0	0	2	2	25	1.1	2	0
Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	25	17.9	5.03	1.341	10.1	20	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	20	18.2	4.95	1.319	8.9	18	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	14	0.2	0	0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kumar Rocker	Starter	9	43.6	3.72	1.422	7.6	37	5.0	5	1	1	3	4	90	5.0	4	1
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	18	22.5	0.80	0.444	8.4	21	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	23	1.2	0	0
Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	19	22.3	1.61	0.762	5.2	13	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Chris Martin	Middle Reliever	9	6.4	9.84	2.188	9.8	7	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1

Game Summary

TEX wins 5-2

Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays

MIA 25-29 (4.28 RPG / 4.48 RA)

2 - 3

TOR 25-28 (4.04 RPG / 4.15 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 3-2 TARGET: MIA 2 - 3 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 56.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	5
TOR	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	x	3	9

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.327

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-115.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.269

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-88.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIA Season Quality

Record25-29

Win%0.463

Run Diff-11

RD/Game-0.204

TOR Season Quality

Record25-28

Win%0.472

Run Diff-6

RD/Game-0.113

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1036; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Xavier Edwards	2B	226	858	274	0.319	26	84	0.406	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.315	0.416	0.488	OK
Liam Hicks	1B	190	678	198	0.292	47	197	0.362	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.257	0.373	0.505	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	219	887	306	0.345	19	97	0.376	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.296	0.320	0.439	OK
Kyle Stowers	DH	127	479	96	0.200	12	33	0.297	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.178	0.256	0.296	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	225	840	165	0.196	13	59	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.194	0.301	0.293	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	113	389	107	0.275	4	71	0.317	4	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.500	0.272	0.310	0.420	OK
Owen Caissie	RF	142	446	98	0.220	11	85	0.276	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.209	0.261	0.362	OK
Joe Mack	C	54	175	38	0.217	0	24	0.271	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.222	0.287	0.295	OK
Esteury Ruiz	LF	37	105	24	0.229	8	17	0.248	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.167	0.204	0.443	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	32	5	2	2	6	8	0.156

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
George Springer	DH	145	586	121	0.206	23	60	0.288	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.205	0.288	0.397	OK
Nathan Lukes	CF	56	187	52	0.278	0	30	0.315	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.274	0.291	0.399	OK
Yohendrick Pinango	LF	68	226	75	0.332	4	35	0.368	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.307	0.343	0.443	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	207	780	171	0.219	45	120	0.305	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.210	0.289	0.394	OK
Jesús Sánchez	RF	163	555	149	0.268	20	84	0.309	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.215	0.249	0.365	OK
Ernie Clement	2B	206	828	251	0.303	14	80	0.327	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.280	0.305	0.405	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	179	640	153	0.239	20	106	0.273	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.209	0.232	0.332	OK
Brandon Valenzuela	C	94	290	77	0.266	17	44	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.250	0.387	0.437	OK
Lenyn Sosa	1B	76	255	49	0.192	5	19	0.190	3	3	2	1	1	0	1	0.667	0.130	0.133	0.213	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	9	3	3	2	8	0.273

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Janson Junk	Starter	10	53.6	5.21	1.306	6.7	40	5.1	5	2	2	2	7	94	5.1	7	2
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	14	12.3	8.05	1.545	14.6	20	0.1	2	1	1	0	1	18	0.1	1	1
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	21	18.1	4.48	1.878	10.9	22	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	22	17.6	4.09	1.193	11.8	23	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trey Yesavage	Starter	5	25.1	1.08	1.076	10.4	29	5.0	3	2	2	4	5	100	5.0	5	2
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	25	25.1	0.72	1.195	14.3	40	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	27	1.1	0	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	24	21.7	1.66	1.152	6.2	15	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	25	20.9	5.60	1.770	17.2	40	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	27	25.0	3.24	1.200	11.2	31	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	18	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

TOR wins 3-2

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

MIN 26-28 (4.61 RPG / 4.57 RA)

3 - 2

CHW 27-26 (4.49 RPG / 4.77 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 3-2 TARGET: MIN 3 - 1 CHW (MIN) Confidence: 56.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	3	8
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	4

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.269

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff-103.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.275

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff-71.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record26-27

Win%0.491

Run Diff4

RD/Game0.075

CHW Season Quality

Record26-26

Win%0.500

Run Diff-17

RD/Game-0.327

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3882; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Byron Buxton	DH	202	880	240	0.273	80	132	0.327	5	4	3	1	2	1	1	0.750	0.271	0.315	0.577	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	192	728	183	0.251	20	102	0.310	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.282	0.343	0.434	OK
Austin Martin	RF	163	595	182	0.306	10	70	0.409	5	3	1	1	0	2	2	0.333	0.288	0.376	0.421	OK
Josh Bell	1B	203	774	180	0.233	21	129	0.299	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.238	0.312	0.357	OK
Kody Clemens	LF	151	546	130	0.238	18	59	0.328	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.218	0.279	0.355	OK
Orlando Arcia	SS	11	45	25	0.556	0	4	0.556	5	4	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.312	0.325	0.462	OK
Luke Keaschall	2B	198	736	176	0.239	5	81	0.325	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.262	0.330	0.340	OK
Ryan Kreidler	CF	43	151	41	0.272	9	24	0.349	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.247	0.318	0.441	OK
Alex Jackson	C	4	16	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.186	0.203	0.279
TEAM TOTALS									43	35	8	3	3	8	11	0.229

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	LF	130	449	108	0.241	5	44	0.360	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.212	0.278	0.324	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	222	801	193	0.241	79	164	0.386	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.208	0.351	0.452	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	220	812	197	0.243	55	141	0.373	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.255	0.387	0.551	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	211	790	177	0.224	57	143	0.323	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.205	0.287	0.414	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	208	795	202	0.254	18	57	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.238	0.309	0.397	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	164	610	155	0.254	14	99	0.293	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.215	0.257	0.361	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	136	420	112	0.267	8	45	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.191	0.248	0.287	OK
Drew Romo	C	55	178	34	0.191	15	31	0.330	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.164	0.289	0.345	OK
Jarred Kelenic	RF	56	171	43	0.251	4	16	0.316	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.181	0.247	0.283	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	4	2	2	5	11	0.129

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zebby Matthews	Starter	2	13.0	1.38	0.769	7.6	11	5.0	1	1	1	2	6	97	5.0	6	1
Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	21	14.9	3.02	1.879	9.1	15	1.1	2	0	0	1	1	27	1.1	1	0
Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	21	20.5	3.95	1.561	9.2	21	1.1	1	1	1	2	2	28	1.1	2	1
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	14	18.4	5.38	1.848	8.3	17	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	20	1.1	2	0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Anthony Kay	Starter	10	44.0	4.50	1.523	7.0	34	5.0	4	1	1	5	5	95	5.0	5	1
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	1.0	3	1	1	1	2	26	1.0	2	1
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1	2.1	8.57	1.905	4.3	1	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	31	1.0	2	1
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	24	20.9	1.72	1.483	9.9	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

MIN wins 3-2

New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals

NYY 32-22 (4.78 RPG / 3.52 RA)

1 - 5

KC 22-32 (3.89 RPG / 4.37 RA)

WINNER: KC wins 5-1 TARGET: NYY 2 - 3 KC (KC) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	6
KC	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	0	x	5	7

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.269

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff-73.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

KC Recent Form

Win%0.176

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff-148.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYY Season Quality

Record31-22

Win%0.585

Run Diff67

RD/Game1.264

KC Season Quality

Record22-31

Win%0.415

Run Diff-25

RD/Game-0.472

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.9906; margin adjustment: -0.836; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trent Grisham	CF	196	698	138	0.198	25	117	0.324	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.268	0.387	0.448	OK
Aaron Judge	RF	231	838	215	0.257	74	146	0.392	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.263	0.382	0.573	OK
Ben Rice	DH	197	738	211	0.286	69	144	0.390	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.262	0.353	0.539	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	221	800	220	0.275	27	140	0.386	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.290	0.396	0.482	OK
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	93	331	88	0.266	23	57	0.361	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.223	0.312	0.463	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	206	774	189	0.244	21	86	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.263	0.331	0.415	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	28	80	22	0.275	0	15	0.473	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.247	0.420	0.382	OK
J.C. Escarra	C	57	191	35	0.183	0	28	0.238	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.165	0.236	0.280	OK
José Caballero	3B	154	543	150	0.276	18	58	0.332	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.262	0.300	0.396	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	33	6	1	1	6	8	0.182

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Maikel Garcia	3B	222	919	264	0.287	14	99	0.340	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	0.667	0.270	0.319	0.391	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	232	934	275	0.294	33	104	0.363	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.263	0.327	0.429	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	216	817	158	0.193	23	105	0.291	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.196	0.296	0.327	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	212	825	184	0.223	38	107	0.273	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.247	0.281	0.380	OK
Carter Jensen	C	175	596	144	0.242	23	98	0.333	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.226	0.314	0.376	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	169	593	133	0.224	18	40	0.299	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.160	0.237	0.288	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	171	567	131	0.231	11	71	0.357	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.246	0.363	0.363	OK
Michael Massey	2B	108	347	80	0.231	10	44	0.249	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.169	0.215	0.297	OK
Kyle Isbel	CF	146	483	131	0.271	11	42	0.323	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.231	0.270	0.340	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	7	5	5	3	13	0.226

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Will Warren	Starter	10	50.0	3.78	1.240	11.2	62	5.1	6	4	4	2	10	105	5.1	10	4
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	22	20.6	5.24	1.699	12.2	28	0.0	0	1	1	0	0	20	0.0	0	1
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	25	15.6	2.88	1.923	17.3	30	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	28	1.2	1	0
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	24	16.7	1.62	1.138	5.4	10	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael Wacha	Starter	10	63.1	2.71	1.030	7.8	55	6.1	2	0	0	4	6	114	6.1	6	0
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	21	19.4	4.64	1.649	8.4	18	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	24	1.0	1	0
Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	20	16.8	4.29	1.488	7.5	14	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	21	19.1	1.88	1.047	12.3	26	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	19	0.2	1	0
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	22	17.3	3.64	1.676	6.2	12	0.0	2	1	1	1	0	16	0.0	0	1

Game Summary

KC wins 5-1

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres

PHI 26-27 (4.02 RPG / 4.47 RA)

4 - 2

SD 31-21 (4.06 RPG / 3.94 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 4-2 TARGET: PHI 4 - 3 SD (PHI) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	8
SD	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.189

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-136.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SD Recent Form

Win%0.235

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-119.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PHI Season Quality

Record26-27

Win%0.491

Run Diff-24

RD/Game-0.453

SD Season Quality

Record31-21

Win%0.596

Run Diff6

RD/Game0.115

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7266; margin adjustment: 0.3052; applied: True

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	227	977	226	0.231	25	76	0.281	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.194	0.255	0.300	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	226	879	209	0.238	93	176	0.355	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.241	0.331	0.562	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	218	803	228	0.284	53	143	0.385	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.272	0.382	0.483	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	196	738	161	0.218	17	94	0.278	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.201	0.260	0.309	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	186	698	235	0.337	19	103	0.369	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.291	0.347	0.480	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	174	628	147	0.234	20	98	0.284	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.255	0.302	0.394	OK
Adolis García	RF	205	740	148	0.200	12	68	0.288	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.199	0.301	0.321	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	164	561	138	0.246	8	44	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.187	0.243	0.306	OK
Rafael Marchán	C	61	210	17	0.081	4	10	0.127	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.117	0.135	0.174	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	4	4	2	7	0.229

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	2B	215	832	208	0.250	0	68	0.327	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.279	0.350	0.354	OK
Miguel Andujar	DH	152	582	172	0.296	19	71	0.318	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.265	0.283	0.472	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	197	728	188	0.258	29	102	0.330	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.270	0.349	0.378	OK
Manny Machado	3B	205	739	132	0.179	35	111	0.273	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.169	0.289	0.328	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	204	796	164	0.206	17	87	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.193	0.291	0.314	OK
Nick Castellanos	RF	109	370	69	0.186	11	64	0.224	4	4	1	1	2	0	3	0.250	0.136	0.198	0.271	OK
Ty France	1B	90	308	91	0.295	19	59	0.330	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.273	0.305	0.540	OK
Ramón Laureano	LF	184	686	156	0.227	26	96	0.309	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0.667	0.202	0.290	0.396	OK
Rodolfo Durán	C	21	56	7	0.125	4	8	0.246	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.189	0.304	0.348	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	9	2	2	4	7	0.250

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jesús Luzardo	Starter	10	53.8	5.02	1.357	11.0	66	5.2	7	1	1	2	5	101	5.2	5	1
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	15	14.2	1.90	1.127	14.6	23	1.0	1	0	0	2	0	24	1.0	0	0
Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	22	20.5	3.95	1.171	11.0	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	23	13.7	7.88	2.482	15.8	24	0.2	0	1	1	0	1	16	0.2	1	1
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	21	16.0	2.81	1.312	9.0	16	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	12	0.2	0	0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Griffin Canning	Starter	4	15.3	9.41	1.895	11.2	19	4.0	8	4	4	2	4	82	4.0	4	4
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	23	22.5	0.80	0.844	18.8	47	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.2	1	0
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	19	16.5	1.09	1.030	5.5	10	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	23	22.6	5.18	1.283	12.7	32	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	16	14.8	3.65	1.149	10.9	18	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 4-2

Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics

SEA 25-29 (4.04 RPG / 3.93 RA)

4 - 8

OAK 27-26 (4.38 RPG / 4.51 RA)

WINNER: OAK wins 8-4 TARGET: SEA 4 - 6 OAK (OAK) Confidence: 56.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	4	7
OAK	3	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	x	8	7

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.308

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-113.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.280

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff-117.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record25-29

Win%0.463

Run Diff6

RD/Game0.111

OAK Season Quality

Record27-26

Win%0.509

Run Diff-7

RD/Game-0.132

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1735; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	SS	189	686	147	0.214	28	81	0.353	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.205	0.317	0.332	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	233	944	246	0.261	41	108	0.323	5	5	1	1	3	0	1	0.200	0.262	0.317	0.469	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	215	849	217	0.256	22	103	0.326	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.235	0.312	0.323	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	224	807	246	0.305	19	94	0.397	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.269	0.344	0.435	OK
Luke Raley	RF	144	494	145	0.294	40	116	0.350	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.251	0.283	0.486	OK
Cole Young	2B	211	744	178	0.239	13	103	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.236	0.300	0.339	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	121	353	92	0.261	17	75	0.330	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.226	0.285	0.430	OK
Jhonny Pereda	C	21	64	9	0.141	1	1	0.203	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.183	0.206	0.288	OK
Colt Emerson	3B	21	65	23	0.354	4	16	0.417	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.310	0.349	0.610	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	4	4	4	6	0.206

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carlos Cortes	RF	139	471	173	0.367	24	75	0.442	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.299	0.385	0.524	OK
Nick Kurtz	1B	236	857	255	0.298	38	171	0.453	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.313	0.454	0.490	OK
Shea Langeliers	C	217	907	284	0.313	55	126	0.382	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.261	0.325	0.462	OK
Brent Rooker	DH	151	581	122	0.210	36	127	0.300	4	3	1	1	3	1	1	0.333	0.193	0.289	0.355	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	210	817	168	0.206	22	105	0.295	4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0.000	0.223	0.305	0.374	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	37	130	41	0.315	0	16	0.384	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.363	0.384	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	178	622	173	0.278	6	58	0.349	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.232	0.333	0.320	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	122	450	106	0.236	26	69	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.164	0.237	0.324	OK
Darell Hernaiz	SS	101	317	83	0.262	4	29	0.346	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.194	0.284	0.242	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	7	8	8	5	4	0.226

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Luis Castillo	Starter	10	44.7	6.64	1.611	9.5	47	4.2	8	8	8	3	2	95	4.2	2	8
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	21	18.5	4.86	1.351	15.6	32	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	14	0.1	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	25	21.2	2.12	1.368	9.3	22	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	25	18.9	2.86	1.640	10.5	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	19	21.4	3.36	1.168	7.6	18	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Alex Hoppe	Middle Reliever	9	10.4	6.92	1.635	10.4	12	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Aaron Civale	Starter	10	50.5	3.39	1.426	6.6	37	5.1	6	4	4	3	4	97	5.1	4	4
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	27	18.5	3.89	2.270	13.1	27	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	16	0.2	1	0
Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	20	17.4	2.59	1.207	6.2	12	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	24	21.5	1.67	0.791	9.2	22	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	14	1.0	0	0
Justin Sterner	Middle Reliever	25	20.7	4.78	1.498	10.9	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

OAK wins 8-4

St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers

STL 29-23 (4.5 RPG / 4.56 RA)

3 - 4

MIL 31-20 (4.92 RPG / 3.53 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 4-3 TARGET: STL 1 - 4 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 62.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	8
MIL	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	4	7

STL Recent Form

Win%0.157

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-114.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.375

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff-68.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

STL Season Quality

Record29-22

Win%0.569

Run Diff1

RD/Game0.020

MIL Season Quality

Record30-20

Win%0.600

Run Diff67

RD/Game1.340

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.3675; margin adjustment: 0.5743; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	231	909	216	0.238	42	117	0.363	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.226	0.324	0.376	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	231	884	232	0.262	27	111	0.389	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.244	0.337	0.390	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	216	873	253	0.290	31	156	0.357	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.270	0.342	0.454	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	213	834	269	0.323	69	198	0.392	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.313	0.384	0.628	OK
Nolan Gorman	3B	190	700	164	0.234	24	109	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.219	0.298	0.337	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	188	727	172	0.237	5	88	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.210	0.272	0.306	OK
Bryan Torres	LF	10	40	10	0.250	0	0	0.400	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.230	0.362	0.296	OK
Pedro Pagés	C	121	425	96	0.226	16	36	0.268	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.213	0.248	0.331	OK
Victor Scott II	CF	147	445	77	0.173	9	27	0.245	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.162	0.235	0.241	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	8	3	3	1	7	0.229

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jackson Chourio	LF	76	344	104	0.302	4	23	0.333	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.285	0.315	0.430	OK
Brice Turang	2B	214	807	244	0.302	34	149	0.419	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.294	0.410	0.482	OK
William Contreras	C	206	840	252	0.300	17	141	0.372	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.314	0.374	0.446	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	84	319	83	0.260	11	47	0.333	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.216	0.309	0.389	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	55	193	58	0.301	4	29	0.392	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.272	0.333	0.411	OK
Luis Rengifo	3B	155	569	120	0.211	0	61	0.274	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.174	0.227	0.243	OK
Blake Perkins	RF	66	194	23	0.119	0	23	0.230	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.083	0.184	0.156	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	154	535	125	0.234	3	90	0.352	4	1	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.239	0.365	0.351	OK
Joey Ortiz	SS	126	395	79	0.200	4	39	0.296	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.195	0.301	0.251	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	7	4	4	2	7	0.212

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matthew Liberatore	Starter	10	50.5	4.81	1.584	7.7	43	4.2	6	3	3	2	5	97	4.2	5	3
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	24	22.7	3.17	1.057	10.7	27	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	24	20.0	3.60	1.500	9.9	22	2.0	1	1	1	0	0	28	2.0	0	1

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	10	56.3	1.92	0.888	14.1	88	6.0	5	1	1	1	7	95	6.0	7	1
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	20	16.7	4.85	1.257	10.2	19	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	17	17.0	3.18	1.059	11.6	22	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	23	27.5	2.95	1.600	15.1	46	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-3

Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles

TB 34-17 (4.76 RPG / 4.02 RA)

4 - 2

BAL 24-30 (4.39 RPG / 5.41 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 4-2 TARGET: TB 5 - 1 BAL (TB) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	4	6
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	4

TB Recent Form

Win%0.320

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed2.6

Run Diff-58.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.135

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-170.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TB Season Quality

Record34-16

Win%0.680

Run Diff40

RD/Game0.800

BAL Season Quality

Record23-30

Win%0.434

Run Diff-57

RD/Game-1.075

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.2445; margin adjustment: -0.9427; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Chandler Simpson	LF	206	846	233	0.275	0	44	0.311	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.221	0.258	0.266	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	218	852	231	0.271	57	127	0.371	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.280	0.387	0.472	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	214	799	215	0.269	36	174	0.367	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.265	0.353	0.421	OK
Yandy Díaz	DH	207	818	262	0.320	30	151	0.399	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.327	0.385	0.519	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	102	295	83	0.281	4	50	0.404	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.220	0.341	0.294	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	168	624	119	0.191	13	66	0.256	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.232	0.294	0.332	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.263	0.334	0.427
Hunter Feduccia	C	63	157	37	0.236	1	14	0.317	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.184	0.254	0.292	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	139	449	91	0.203	0	54	0.310	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.177	0.278	0.266	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	4	4	1	7	0.182

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	LF	233	849	224	0.264	9	68	0.414	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.244	0.380	0.357	OK
Gunnar Henderson	DH	235	1004	220	0.219	46	116	0.272	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.200	0.247	0.369	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	144	556	148	0.266	31	109	0.331	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.232	0.331	0.440	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	224	848	197	0.232	40	141	0.316	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.234	0.326	0.428	OK
Weston Wilson	3B	41	106	29	0.274	4	6	0.398	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.240	0.342	0.388	OK
Leody Taveras	CF	142	470	118	0.251	9	79	0.351	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.182	0.277	0.301	OK
Blaze Alexander	SS	113	362	81	0.224	0	20	0.278	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.183	0.228	0.240	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	12	33	8	0.242	4	8	0.324	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.217	0.293	0.405	OK
Tyler O'Neill	RF	100	304	49	0.161	8	28	0.284	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.141	0.233	0.222	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	4	2	2	2	8	0.129

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane McClanahan	Starter	9	43.5	2.90	1.080	9.7	47	5.2	2	0	0	1	6	81	5.2	6	0
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	23	20.4	2.65	1.078	11.0	25	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	20	1.0	1	1
Ian Seymour	Middle Reliever	22	21.8	3.72	1.193	12.0	29	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	11	1.1	1	1
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	24	20.7	3.48	0.966	7.4	17	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Bradish	Starter	10	51.4	4.20	1.537	10.2	58	4.2	4	2	2	0	5	94	4.2	5	2
Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	22	21.1	4.27	1.137	11.9	28	2.1	2	2	2	1	1	14	2.1	1	2
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	23	16.2	1.67	0.617	8.3	15	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	2.0	1	0

Game Summary

TB wins 4-2

Washington Nationals @ Cleveland Guardians

WAS 28-27 (5.42 RPG / 5.53 RA)

3 - 4

CLE 32-24 (4.18 RPG / 3.91 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 4-3 TARGET: WAS 3 - 5 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	3	6
CLE	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	10

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.278

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-138.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.415

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-76.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

WAS Season Quality

Record27-27

Win%0.500

Run Diff-14

RD/Game-0.259

CLE Season Quality

Record32-23

Win%0.582

Run Diff23

RD/Game0.418

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8002; margin adjustment: 0.3361; applied: True

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	DH	252	969	259	0.267	65	177	0.416	5	4	1	1	2	1	1	0.250	0.242	0.421	0.464	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	165	610	165	0.270	15	99	0.292	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.206	0.229	0.337	OK
Curtis Mead	3B	130	422	108	0.256	22	69	0.376	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.211	0.310	0.407	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	225	862	254	0.295	44	198	0.383	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.246	0.333	0.463	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	22	89	18	0.202	4	4	0.237	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.216	0.251	0.347	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	233	969	255	0.263	32	120	0.318	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.250	0.299	0.433	OK
Jacob Young	CF	181	685	158	0.231	20	86	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.229	0.267	0.337	OK
Drew Millas	C	92	306	56	0.183	4	27	0.271	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.178	0.255	0.256	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	182	622	118	0.190	0	63	0.298	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.184	0.277	0.216	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	3	3	4	6	0.182

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Travis Bazzana	2B	99	359	105	0.292	12	43	0.407	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.321	0.405	0.503	OK
José Ramírez	3B	238	889	209	0.235	36	110	0.356	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.215	0.323	0.369	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	202	780	200	0.256	32	143	0.338	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.231	0.325	0.410	OK
Rhys Hoskins	DH	146	453	91	0.201	18	77	0.347	5	4	3	1	1	1	0	0.750	0.217	0.349	0.419	OK
Kyle Manzardo	1B	155	561	119	0.212	16	58	0.285	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.203	0.268	0.353	OK
Angel Martínez	LF	179	689	180	0.261	38	110	0.303	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.186	0.213	0.350	OK
Steven Kwan	CF	219	833	176	0.211	4	56	0.329	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.259	0.356	0.318	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	19	54	7	0.130	3	6	0.217	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.169	0.245	0.307	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	192	644	186	0.289	14	104	0.368	4	3	3	1	3	1	0	1.000	0.275	0.337	0.396	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	34	10	4	4	6	5	0.294

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
PJ Poulin	Starter	23	17.7	4.07	1.808	8.1	16	4.1	4	3	3	4	4	83	4.1	4	3
Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	21	16.6	4.88	1.807	10.3	19	1.0	3	0	0	0	0	22	1.0	0	0
Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	16	32.2	3.07	1.118	8.1	29	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	5	1.1	1	0
Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	16	13.1	2.06	1.832	10.3	15	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21	1.0	0	0
Mitchell Parker	Middle Reliever	11	23.3	5.41	1.202	7.7	20	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	34	0.1	0	1

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tanner Bibee	Starter	11	58.6	3.84	1.280	8.0	52	5.2	6	3	3	3	5	101	5.2	5	3
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	25	25.2	2.50	1.071	13.2	37	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14	1.0	0	0
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	25	16.8	2.14	1.190	20.9	39	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.2	0	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	15	11.0	4.91	1.545	9.8	12	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever	13	10.0	1.80	1.500	14.4	16	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants

ARI Recent Form

SF Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

SF Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates

CHC Recent Form

PIT Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

PIT Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets

CIN Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

COL Recent Form

LAD Recent Form

COL Season Quality

LAD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

HOU Recent Form

TEX Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

TEX Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Miami Marlins @ Toronto Blue Jays

MIA Recent Form

TOR Recent Form

MIA Season Quality

TOR Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

MIN Recent Form

CHW Recent Form

MIN Season Quality

CHW Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

New York Yankees @ Kansas City Royals