MLB Predictions — May 24, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
CHW @ SF	2 - 3	2 - 4	SF	SF	SF wins 4-2	51%	enhanced_ml
CLE @ PHI	2 - 1	4 - 1	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 4-1	57%	enhanced_ml
COL @ ARI	3 - 4	2 - 5	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 5-2	55%	enhanced_ml
DET @ BAL	2 - 1	4 - 0	DET	DET	DET wins 4-0	52%	enhanced_ml
DET @ BAL	3 - 2	4 - 1	DET	DET	DET wins 4-1	57%	enhanced_ml
HOU @ CHC	2 - 3	2 - 4	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 4-2	52%	enhanced_ml
LAD @ MIL	3 - 2	3 - 2	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 3-2	51%	enhanced_ml
MIN @ BOS	1 - 2	0 - 2	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 2-0	52%	enhanced_ml
NYM @ MIA	1 - 3	1 - 2	MIA	MIA	MIA wins 2-1	57%	enhanced_ml
OAK @ SD	1 - 2	1 - 3	SD	SD	SD wins 3-1	55%	enhanced_ml
PIT @ TOR	3 - 2	3 - 1	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 3-1	55%	enhanced_ml
SEA @ KC	2 - 3	1 - 3	KC	KC	KC wins 3-1	52%	enhanced_ml
STL @ CIN	3 - 2	4 - 1	STL	STL	STL wins 4-1	51%	enhanced_ml
TB @ NYY	1 - 2	1 - 2	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 2-1	51%	enhanced_ml
TEX @ LAA	3 - 1	5 - 0	TEX	TEX	TEX wins 5-0	60%	enhanced_ml
WAS @ ATL	1 - 4	1 - 4	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 4-1	53%	enhanced_ml

Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants

CHW 26-26 (4.52 RPG / 4.85 RA)

2 - 4

SF 22-31 (3.68 RPG / 4.57 RA)

WINNER: SF wins 4-2 TARGET: CHW 2 - 3 SF (SF) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9
SF	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	x	4	9

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.280

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff-60.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

SF Recent Form

Win%0.196

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-133.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record26-25

Win%0.510

Run Diff-14

RD/Game-0.275

SF Season Quality

Record21-31

Win%0.404

Run Diff-50

RD/Game-0.962

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.846; margin adjustment: -0.3553; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Chase Meidroth	2B	47	177	47	0.266	3	12	0.340	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.225	0.306	0.329	OK
Munetaka Murakami	DH	49	176	42	0.239	17	36	0.381	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.240	0.379	0.431	OK
Miguel Vargas	1B	47	174	42	0.241	11	30	0.365	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.227	0.330	0.416	OK
Randal Grichuk	LF	4	11	4	0.364	2	6	0.417	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0.750	0.236	0.259	0.452	OK
Colson Montgomery	3B	48	181	40	0.221	13	31	0.316	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.189	0.262	0.363	OK
Edgar Quero	C	27	94	16	0.170	1	11	0.243	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.186	0.251	0.271	OK
Derek Hill	RF	14	40	8	0.200	1	3	0.256	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.197	0.253	0.282	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	36	111	27	0.243	2	11	0.306	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.193	0.260	0.359	OK
Luisangel Acuña	SS	28	85	14	0.165	0	3	0.226	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.155	0.210	0.203	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	36	9	2	2	2	7	0.250

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Willy Adames	SS	51	206	48	0.233	6	17	0.269	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.216	0.255	0.431	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	49	195	63	0.323	2	18	0.360	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.270	0.314	0.406	OK
Casey Schmitt	1B	43	164	48	0.293	10	26	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.242	0.268	0.466	OK
Rafael Devers	DH	52	200	48	0.240	6	20	0.284	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.205	0.248	0.360	OK
Matt Chapman	3B	50	191	45	0.236	1	16	0.315	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.217	0.293	0.327	OK
Daniel Susac	C	10	37	16	0.432	0	9	0.488	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.237	0.311	0.399	OK
Jesus Rodriguez	LF	9	31	7	0.226	1	5	0.294	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.173	0.226	0.244	OK
Harrison Bader	CF	23	86	16	0.186	5	13	0.220	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.181	0.222	0.375	OK
Victor Bericoto	RF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.243	0.313	0.396
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	9	4	4	2	5	0.273

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Noah Schultz	Starter	7	33.5	5.10	1.343	8.6	32	6.0	3	1	1	1	3	95	6.0	3	1
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	0.2	4	3	3	1	1	24	0.2	1	3
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	23	1.1	1	0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Robbie Ray	Starter	10	52.8	4.43	1.364	8.5	50	5.1	7	2	2	1	4	95	5.1	4	2
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	20	18.3	2.95	1.311	10.8	22	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	22	20.4	2.21	0.833	8.8	20	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	15	11.0	4.91	1.818	16.4	20	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	13	1.0	1	0
Joel Peguero	Middle Reliever	8	7.6	1.18	0.921	3.6	3	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	15	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

SF wins 4-2

Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies

CLE 32-23 (4.22 RPG / 3.8 RA)

4 - 1

PHI 26-27 (4.02 RPG / 4.47 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 4-1 TARGET: CLE 2 - 1 PHI (CLE) Confidence: 57.4% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	4	7
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.423

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-75.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.212

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-131.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record31-23

Win%0.574

Run Diff21

RD/Game0.389

PHI Season Quality

Record26-26

Win%0.500

Run Diff-22

RD/Game-0.423

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9231; margin adjustment: -0.3877; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Travis Bazzana	2B	22	79	21	0.266	2	9	0.383	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.245	0.339	0.363	OK
José Ramírez	DH	54	199	46	0.231	8	24	0.353	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.225	0.337	0.379	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	45	174	46	0.264	7	30	0.347	5	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.214	0.303	0.366	OK
Rhys Hoskins	1B	34	107	21	0.196	4	16	0.336	5	4	1	1	2	1	1	0.250	0.197	0.331	0.362	OK
Daniel Schneemann	3B	38	132	32	0.242	4	17	0.320	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.191	0.268	0.316	OK
David Fry	LF	21	61	16	0.262	3	8	0.366	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.217	0.317	0.355	OK
Steven Kwan	CF	49	179	35	0.196	1	11	0.321	5	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.172	0.304	0.243	OK
Austin Hedges	C	21	63	16	0.254	1	4	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.185	0.279	0.307	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	51	165	48	0.291	4	27	0.376	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.236	0.321	0.375	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	33	7	4	4	8	4	0.212

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	50	209	48	0.230	5	16	0.280	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.195	0.250	0.321	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	49	186	41	0.220	20	36	0.344	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.202	0.307	0.503	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	51	188	52	0.277	12	31	0.364	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.228	0.316	0.409	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	47	173	38	0.220	5	22	0.281	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.221	0.283	0.391	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	32	110	25	0.227	1	8	0.301	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.192	0.258	0.263	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	41	150	34	0.227	5	23	0.278	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.209	0.262	0.388	OK
Adolis García	RF	49	177	35	0.198	3	14	0.279	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.138	0.219	0.217	OK
Edmundo Sosa	LF	22	72	15	0.208	2	11	0.237	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.158	0.186	0.286	OK
Brandon Marsh	CF	44	168	54	0.321	4	22	0.346	3	3	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.202	0.235	0.307	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	4	1	1	3	6	0.129

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Parker Messick	Starter	10	56.8	2.54	1.056	10.1	64	6.0	2	0	0	3	6	104	6.0	6	0
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	24	24.2	2.60	1.116	13.4	36	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	25	16.8	2.14	1.190	20.9	39	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	13	0.2	0	1
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	14	9.9	5.45	1.717	9.1	10	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Painter	Starter	9	42.5	5.93	1.529	7.8	37	5.0	6	3	3	4	0	101	5.0	0	3
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	15	14.2	1.90	1.127	14.6	23	1.2	0	0	0	3	0	33	1.2	0	0
Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	22	20.5	3.95	1.171	11.0	25	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	23	13.7	7.88	2.482	15.8	24	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	16	0.2	2	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	21	16.0	2.81	1.312	9.0	16	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	12	0.2	0	1

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-1

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

COL 20-34 (4.06 RPG / 5.22 RA)

2 - 5

ARI 28-24 (4.6 RPG / 4.46 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 5-2 TARGET: COL 3 - 4 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 54.9% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5
ARI	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	x	5	10

COL Recent Form

Win%0.137

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-172.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.353

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff-55.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

COL Season Quality

Record20-32

Win%0.385

Run Diff-54

RD/Game-1.038

ARI Season Quality

Record26-24

Win%0.520

Run Diff-2

RD/Game-0.040

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.2015; margin adjustment: 0.5046; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	CF	36	114	30	0.263	2	17	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.220	0.255	0.382	OK
Tyler Freeman	RF	24	91	22	0.242	2	11	0.324	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.214	0.248	0.297	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	48	180	51	0.283	6	26	0.356	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.257	0.323	0.424	OK
Troy Johnston	LF	41	149	48	0.322	2	21	0.377	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.253	0.306	0.370	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	47	171	36	0.211	1	14	0.265	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.196	0.249	0.294	OK
Sterlin Thompson	DH	4	13	2	0.154	0	1	0.267	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.186	0.243	0.322	OK
Edouard Julien	2B	34	118	27	0.229	2	12	0.316	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.158	0.245	0.238	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	44	138	28	0.203	1	11	0.309	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.153	0.255	0.233	OK
Brett Sullivan	C	20	69	13	0.188	0	7	0.230	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.140	0.181	0.240	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	2	2	3	7	0.156

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ketel Marte	DH	46	190	48	0.253	8	24	0.306	5	5	3	1	0	0	1	0.600	0.284	0.342	0.518	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	48	172	49	0.285	7	26	0.387	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.278	0.375	0.525	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	48	164	37	0.226	2	16	0.347	5	3	0	1	0	2	1	0.000	0.224	0.355	0.351	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	47	160	44	0.275	7	27	0.352	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.249	0.317	0.457	OK
Ildemaro Vargas	2B	42	172	52	0.302	7	29	0.326	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.667	0.222	0.255	0.342	OK
Ryan Waldschmidt	CF	14	46	15	0.326	0	6	0.392	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.261	0.333	0.383	OK
Jose Fernandez	1B	33	123	36	0.293	3	14	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.236	0.265	0.320	OK
Aramis Garcia	C	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.240	0.303	0.388
Tommy La Stella	LF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	3	3	1	2	1	0	1.000	0.259	0.330	0.406
TEAM TOTALS									39	33	10	5	5	5	7	0.303

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jose Quintana	Starter	8	37.8	4.29	1.481	4.8	20	5.0	5	2	2	2	5	98	5.0	5	2
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	15	28.5	1.26	0.877	8.2	26	1.2	2	2	2	1	0	43	1.2	0	2
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	21	20.6	4.81	1.845	12.7	29	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	20	0.1	1	0
Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	21	14.1	3.83	1.844	13.4	21	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	23	1.0	1	1

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryne Nelson	Starter	10	49.2	5.49	1.260	8.4	46	5.1	4	2	2	3	5	91	5.1	5	2
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	2	1.2	15.00	3.333	7.5	1	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	4	1.0	0	0
Taylor Clarke	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	360.00	30.000	0.0	0	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.2	0	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-2

Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles

DET 21-33 (3.83 RPG / 4.3 RA)

4 - 0

BAL 23-30 (4.3 RPG / 5.38 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 4-0 TARGET: DET 2 - 1 BAL (DET) Confidence: 51.6% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	6
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9

DET Recent Form

Win%0.255

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-115.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.180

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-164.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

DET Season Quality

Record20-32

Win%0.385

Run Diff-26

RD/Game-0.500

BAL Season Quality

Record22-29

Win%0.431

Run Diff-56

RD/Game-1.098

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5279; margin adjustment: -0.2217; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach McKinstry	2B	25	85	15	0.176	1	7	0.239	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.194	0.250	0.265	OK
Kevin McGonigle	3B	49	185	53	0.286	3	17	0.394	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.234	0.344	0.386	OK
Dillon Dingler	DH	42	160	38	0.238	9	28	0.315	5	4	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.200	0.266	0.388	OK
Riley Greene	LF	51	184	60	0.326	4	24	0.421	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.271	0.361	0.401	OK
Matt Vierling	CF	33	118	24	0.203	3	17	0.278	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.176	0.261	0.336	OK
Colt Keith	1B	34	120	32	0.267	0	4	0.307	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.199	0.239	0.286	OK
Wenceel Pérez	RF	28	100	15	0.150	0	5	0.198	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.162	0.210	0.225	OK
Jake Rogers	C	15	44	7	0.159	0	4	0.220	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.163	0.220	0.290	OK
Zack Short	SS	7	14	1	0.071	0	0	0.316	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.147	0.311	0.217	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	33	6	4	4	6	7	0.182

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	DH	50	180	46	0.256	2	14	0.410	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.219	0.371	0.368	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	50	214	49	0.229	10	24	0.278	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0.400	0.250	0.291	0.417	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	32	127	33	0.260	7	24	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.217	0.269	0.408	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	51	192	44	0.229	10	32	0.312	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0.667	0.227	0.304	0.435	OK
Tyler O'Neill	RF	22	71	11	0.155	2	7	0.294	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.165	0.273	0.272	OK
Coby Mayo	3B	39	128	24	0.188	5	17	0.262	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.197	0.268	0.342	OK
Leody Taveras	CF	32	107	29	0.271	2	18	0.376	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.221	0.318	0.356	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	40	148	38	0.257	6	25	0.273	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.210	0.228	0.327	OK
Blaze Alexander	LF	29	94	21	0.223	0	5	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.196	0.254	0.263	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	36	9	0	0	2	4	0.250

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Framber Valdez	Starter	10	54.3	4.64	1.418	7.5	45	5.1	8	0	0	1	2	99	5.1	2	0
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	15	12.4	2.18	0.968	13.8	19	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	22	21.9	0.82	1.507	6.2	15	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Will Vest	Middle Reliever	15	11.8	6.86	1.610	11.4	15	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Young	Starter	6	28.5	4.42	1.544	6.9	22	4.2	5	3	3	3	5	86	4.2	5	3
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	24	19.0	0.95	0.632	12.3	26	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	20	1.0	0	0
Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	22	21.1	4.27	1.137	11.9	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	23	16.2	1.67	0.617	8.3	15	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	10	6.7	12.09	2.537	10.7	8	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	20	1.1	1	1

Game Summary

DET wins 4-0

Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles

DET 21-33 (3.83 RPG / 4.3 RA)

4 - 1

BAL 23-30 (4.3 RPG / 5.38 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 4-1 TARGET: DET 3 - 2 BAL (DET) Confidence: 57.2% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	9
BAL	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	6

DET Recent Form

Win%0.255

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-115.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.180

Avg Runs1.1

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-164.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

DET Season Quality

Record20-32

Win%0.385

Run Diff-26

RD/Game-0.500

BAL Season Quality

Record22-29

Win%0.431

Run Diff-56

RD/Game-1.098

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5279; margin adjustment: -0.2217; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach McKinstry	2B	25	85	15	0.176	1	7	0.239	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.194	0.250	0.265	OK
Kevin McGonigle	3B	49	185	53	0.286	3	17	0.394	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.234	0.344	0.386	OK
Dillon Dingler	DH	42	160	38	0.238	9	28	0.315	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.200	0.266	0.388	OK
Riley Greene	LF	51	184	60	0.326	4	24	0.421	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	0.500	0.271	0.361	0.401	OK
Matt Vierling	CF	33	118	24	0.203	3	17	0.278	5	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.176	0.261	0.336	OK
Colt Keith	1B	34	120	32	0.267	0	4	0.307	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.199	0.239	0.286	OK
Wenceel Pérez	RF	28	100	15	0.150	0	5	0.198	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.162	0.210	0.225	OK
Jake Rogers	C	15	44	7	0.159	0	4	0.220	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.163	0.220	0.290	OK
Zack Short	SS	7	14	1	0.071	0	0	0.316	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.147	0.311	0.217	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	36	9	4	4	4	6	0.250

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	DH	50	180	46	0.256	2	14	0.410	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.219	0.371	0.368	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	50	214	49	0.229	10	24	0.278	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.250	0.291	0.417	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	32	127	33	0.260	7	24	0.312	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.217	0.269	0.408	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	51	192	44	0.229	10	32	0.312	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.227	0.304	0.435	OK
Tyler O'Neill	RF	22	71	11	0.155	2	7	0.294	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.165	0.273	0.272	OK
Weston Wilson	3B	12	30	8	0.267	1	1	0.389	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.220	0.322	0.323	OK
Leody Taveras	CF	32	107	29	0.271	2	18	0.376	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.221	0.318	0.356	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	40	148	38	0.257	6	25	0.273	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.210	0.228	0.327	OK
Blaze Alexander	LF	29	94	21	0.223	0	5	0.284	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.196	0.254	0.263	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	1	1	3	8	0.182

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Troy Melton	Starter	0	0	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	3.0	3	1	1	2	6	67	3.0	6	1
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	15	12.4	2.18	0.968	13.8	19	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	22	21.9	0.82	1.507	6.2	15	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	25	1.2	1	0
Will Vest	Middle Reliever	15	11.8	6.86	1.610	11.4	15	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	19	1.0	1	0
Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	22	19.5	5.54	1.846	8.3	18	1.2	2	0	0	0	0	27	1.2	0	0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trevor Rogers	Starter	8	36.6	7.13	1.721	8.1	33	4.0	6	4	4	4	3	90	4.0	3	4
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	24	19.0	0.95	0.632	12.3	26	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	22	21.1	4.27	1.137	11.9	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	23	16.2	1.67	0.617	8.3	15	1.2	3	0	0	0	1	30	1.2	1	0
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	10	6.7	12.09	2.537	10.7	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

DET wins 4-1

Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs

HOU 23-31 (4.31 RPG / 5.2 RA)

2 - 4

CHC 29-24 (4.77 RPG / 4.4 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 4-2 TARGET: HOU 2 - 3 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 52.1% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	6
CHC	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	x	4	7

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.434

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-167.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.135

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-140.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

HOU Season Quality

Record22-31

Win%0.415

Run Diff-51

RD/Game-0.962

CHC Season Quality

Record29-23

Win%0.558

Run Diff23

RD/Game0.442

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.6185; margin adjustment: 0.6798; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brice Matthews	2B	34	116	24	0.207	4	12	0.250	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.203	0.247	0.317	OK
Jeremy Peña	SS	15	63	15	0.238	0	1	0.279	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.214	0.249	0.309	OK
Christian Walker	1B	52	191	51	0.267	13	34	0.338	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.233	0.295	0.461	OK
Isaac Paredes	DH	46	169	42	0.249	5	20	0.342	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.208	0.284	0.358	OK
Jake Meyers	CF	13	48	11	0.229	1	4	0.296	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.202	0.260	0.306	OK
Cam Smith	RF	47	163	33	0.202	3	15	0.296	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.198	0.278	0.278	OK
Zach Dezenzo	LF	10	32	8	0.250	1	2	0.294	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.218	0.261	0.369	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	26	84	23	0.274	4	16	0.344	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.204	0.285	0.357	OK
Nick Allen	3B	8	23	6	0.261	0	0	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.207	0.288	0.307	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	2	2	4	10	0.182

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	51	186	43	0.231	6	22	0.312	4	4	1	1	0	0	3	0.250	0.209	0.279	0.370	OK
Nico Hoerner	SS	50	202	51	0.252	4	30	0.342	4	4	3	1	3	0	0	0.750	0.217	0.315	0.324	OK
Michael Busch	1B	50	182	40	0.220	4	26	0.351	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.197	0.324	0.340	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	50	202	49	0.243	4	15	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.215	0.295	0.301	OK
Michael Conforto	LF	17	50	15	0.300	2	8	0.426	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.358	0.461	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	36	136	35	0.257	7	18	0.354	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.209	0.297	0.321	OK
Moisés Ballesteros	DH	33	102	23	0.225	6	18	0.296	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.178	0.259	0.301	OK
Carson Kelly	C	32	117	33	0.282	1	13	0.364	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.215	0.288	0.309	OK
Pedro Ramirez	2B	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.251	0.318	0.383
TEAM TOTALS									32	31	7	4	4	1	9	0.226

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Peter Lambert	Starter	6	35.1	3.59	1.083	9.0	35	6.0	6	3	3	0	8	106	6.0	8	3
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	20	20.3	3.10	1.478	8.0	18	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	18	13.9	8.42	2.374	13.6	21	0.1	1	1	1	1	1	17	0.1	1	1

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shota Imanaga	Starter	10	58.2	3.40	1.048	9.4	61	6.0	2	0	0	2	8	92	6.0	8	0
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	11	8.5	2.12	1.647	11.6	11	0.2	2	2	2	0	2	15	0.2	2	2
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	11	7.8	2.31	1.282	12.7	11	1.1	1	0	0	2	0	25	1.1	0	0
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	22	19.1	3.30	1.571	11.8	25	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 4-2

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers

LAD 33-20 (5.17 RPG / 3.17 RA)

3 - 2

MIL 30-20 (4.92 RPG / 3.58 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 3-2 TARGET: LAD 3 - 2 MIL (LAD) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	10
MIL	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	5

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.275

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff-61.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.404

Avg Runs1.6

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-59.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

LAD Season Quality

Record32-20

Win%0.615

Run Diff102

RD/Game1.962

MIL Season Quality

Record30-19

Win%0.612

Run Diff71

RD/Game1.449

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5173; margin adjustment: -0.2173; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	47	181	50	0.276	8	28	0.402	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.269	0.392	0.465	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	17	71	12	0.169	4	9	0.234	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.185	0.240	0.325	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	49	185	49	0.265	6	23	0.362	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.241	0.364	0.481	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	49	181	45	0.249	4	23	0.355	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.207	0.326	0.351	OK
Andy Pages	CF	51	190	54	0.284	10	43	0.338	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.199	0.263	0.339	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	47	170	47	0.276	7	31	0.349	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.252	0.323	0.446	OK
Dalton Rushing	C	21	73	20	0.274	7	16	0.354	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.190	0.256	0.340	OK
Hyeseong Kim	2B	34	103	27	0.262	1	10	0.330	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.206	0.283	0.284	OK
Miguel Rojas	3B	17	57	18	0.316	1	7	0.333	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.211	0.243	0.319	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	37	10	3	3	3	5	0.270

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jackson Chourio	LF	16	72	21	0.292	1	5	0.329	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.226	0.267	0.375	OK
Brice Turang	2B	46	171	50	0.292	7	30	0.416	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.246	0.379	0.426	OK
William Contreras	C	45	183	56	0.306	4	30	0.376	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.272	0.339	0.386	OK
Jake Bauers	DH	39	149	43	0.289	7	28	0.358	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.242	0.307	0.413	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	12	42	13	0.310	1	7	0.408	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.232	0.310	0.392	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	35	120	28	0.233	2	24	0.345	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.207	0.309	0.366	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	42	153	33	0.216	3	15	0.280	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.184	0.239	0.262	OK
Joey Ortiz	SS	33	102	20	0.196	1	11	0.300	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.171	0.305	0.249	OK
David Hamilton	3B	36	110	27	0.245	0	8	0.341	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.194	0.287	0.271	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	32	5	2	2	7	4	0.156

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	9	56.3	3.36	0.977	9.0	56	6.1	4	1	1	5	4	112	6.1	4	1
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	22	19.5	1.38	0.667	10.6	23	1.0	1	1	1	2	0	15	1.0	0	1
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	22	15.9	2.83	1.069	14.2	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Kyle Hurt	Middle Reliever	15	15.0	0.60	0.867	10.8	18	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.2	0	0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Sproat	Starter	9	38.1	6.14	1.601	9.7	41	4.1	9	3	3	1	2	86	4.1	2	3
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	20	16.7	4.85	1.257	10.2	19	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	17	17.0	3.18	1.059	11.6	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	23	27.5	2.95	1.600	15.1	46	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	26	1.1	0	0
DL Hall	Middle Reliever	21	21.4	2.94	1.449	10.9	26	1.1	1	0	0	2	1	15	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 3-2

Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox

MIN 26-27 (4.68 RPG / 4.6 RA)

0 - 2

BOS 22-30 (3.73 RPG / 4.04 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 2-0 TARGET: MIN 1 - 2 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 51.8% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
BOS	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	x	2	6

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.294

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff-104.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.176

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff-116.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record25-27

Win%0.481

Run Diff3

RD/Game0.058

BOS Season Quality

Record22-29

Win%0.431

Run Diff-15

RD/Game-0.294

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4259; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Austin Martin	RF	35	126	38	0.302	2	13	0.411	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.240	0.336	0.373	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	46	172	42	0.244	5	22	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.214	0.266	0.340	OK
Trevor Larnach	LF	33	114	32	0.281	2	12	0.388	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.244	0.341	0.396	OK
Josh Bell	DH	47	178	40	0.225	5	29	0.289	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.232	0.295	0.396	OK
Kody Clemens	1B	35	125	30	0.240	4	12	0.331	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.207	0.271	0.354	OK
Victor Caratini	C	33	111	21	0.189	2	16	0.289	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.178	0.250	0.269	OK
Orlando Arcia	2B	1	4	2	0.500	0	1	0.500	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.206	0.216	0.287	OK
James Outman	CF	14	46	10	0.217	0	3	0.234	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.190	0.212	0.358	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	11	36	10	0.278	3	8	0.366	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.202	0.292	0.393	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	3	0	0	2	6	0.100

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jarren Duran	LF	44	181	35	0.193	6	25	0.265	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.195	0.270	0.387	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	44	160	44	0.275	3	16	0.348	4	2	1	0	0	2	0	0.500	0.231	0.290	0.371	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	50	194	56	0.289	6	20	0.353	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.230	0.290	0.340	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	48	174	48	0.276	10	31	0.371	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.255	0.326	0.459	OK
Masataka Yoshida	DH	22	76	18	0.237	0	5	0.330	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.195	0.269	0.297	OK
Nick Sogard	2B	6	19	6	0.316	0	2	0.458	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.225	0.373	0.326	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	31	97	22	0.227	2	3	0.306	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.201	0.279	0.308	OK
Marcelo Mayer	SS	39	128	26	0.203	2	10	0.273	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.159	0.223	0.247	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	43	143	24	0.168	1	15	0.247	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.146	0.199	0.234	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	6	2	2	3	4	0.200

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bailey Ober	Starter	10	56.3	3.68	1.083	6.4	40	6.0	5	2	2	1	4	95	6.0	4	2
Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	20	14.8	3.04	1.757	9.1	15	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.2	0	0
Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	20	19.5	4.15	1.641	8.8	19	1.1	1	0	0	2	0	28	1.1	0	0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sonny Gray	Starter	8	39.3	2.98	1.145	6.9	30	5.2	3	0	0	2	5	88	5.2	5	0
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	18	17.2	0.52	0.872	12.0	23	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	11	1.1	1	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	19	19.1	2.83	1.047	11.3	24	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	10	7.5	4.80	1.467	14.4	12	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 2-0

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

NYM 22-31 (3.89 RPG / 4.28 RA)

1 - 2

MIA 25-29 (4.28 RPG / 4.48 RA)

WINNER: MIA wins 2-1 TARGET: NYM 1 - 3 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 56.9% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	9
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	6

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.367

Avg Runs1.4

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-94.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.294

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff-121.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record22-30

Win%0.423

Run Diff-17

RD/Game-0.327

MIA Season Quality

Record24-29

Win%0.453

Run Diff-15

RD/Game-0.283

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0885; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carson Benge	RF	44	165	42	0.255	3	17	0.313	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.232	0.284	0.321	OK
Bo Bichette	SS	52	212	46	0.217	5	27	0.266	5	5	3	0	0	0	0	0.600	0.199	0.248	0.347	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	11	35	9	0.257	1	4	0.395	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.222	0.349	0.356	OK
Mark Vientos	1B	41	151	35	0.232	6	23	0.273	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.213	0.244	0.354	OK
Brett Baty	3B	42	147	36	0.245	3	20	0.309	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.211	0.280	0.336	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	52	188	41	0.218	3	18	0.268	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.184	0.232	0.269	OK
MJ Melendez	DH	22	60	14	0.233	2	6	0.343	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.184	0.263	0.326	OK
Tyrone Taylor	LF	21	65	14	0.215	1	6	0.239	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.176	0.203	0.274	OK
Hayden Senger	C	3	7	0	0.000	0	1	0.000	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.160	0.173	0.245
TEAM TOTALS									38	36	9	1	1	2	4	0.250

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Liam Hicks	C	42	155	44	0.284	11	44	0.343	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.227	0.277	0.424	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	52	197	60	0.305	6	19	0.383	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.240	0.315	0.400	OK
Owen Caissie	RF	37	113	25	0.221	3	22	0.281	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0.667	0.234	0.293	0.409	OK
Kyle Stowers	LF	29	107	23	0.215	3	8	0.311	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.198	0.283	0.369	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	50	201	68	0.338	4	21	0.369	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.285	0.378	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	48	179	35	0.196	3	13	0.322	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.182	0.299	0.295	OK
Connor Norby	1B	45	151	33	0.219	4	14	0.324	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.181	0.275	0.293	OK
Christopher Morel	DH	15	50	8	0.160	0	1	0.222	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.153	0.201	0.238	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	28	97	24	0.247	1	15	0.298	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.179	0.233	0.323	OK
TEAM TOTALS									31	30	6	2	2	1	5	0.200

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Christian Scott	Starter	5	18.5	4.38	1.568	12.2	25	4.2	5	1	1	1	5	78	4.2	5	1
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	18	15.5	3.48	1.290	14.5	25	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	20	19.7	3.65	1.218	10.1	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	21	16.3	1.66	1.288	12.7	23	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Phillips	Starter	15	28.6	1.26	1.329	8.5	27	5.0	3	0	0	1	3	82	5.0	3	0
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	13	11.3	8.76	1.504	15.1	19	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	22	1.0	0	1
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	20	17.0	4.76	1.882	11.1	21	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	21	16.6	4.34	1.205	12.5	23	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
John King	Middle Reliever	23	16.7	2.69	0.838	9.2	17	0.2	2	0	0	1	0	18	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

MIA wins 2-1

Oakland Athletics @ San Diego Padres

OAK 27-26 (4.38 RPG / 4.51 RA)

1 - 3

SD 31-21 (4.06 RPG / 3.94 RA)

WINNER: SD wins 3-1 TARGET: OAK 1 - 2 SD (SD) Confidence: 54.6% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	8
SD	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	x	3	6

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.260

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff-123.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SD Recent Form

Win%0.240

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-116.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record26-25

Win%0.510

Run Diff-8

RD/Game-0.157

SD Season Quality

Record30-20

Win%0.600

Run Diff7

RD/Game0.140

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4322; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carlos Cortes	RF	33	110	37	0.336	4	16	0.413	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.269	0.362	0.408	OK
Nick Kurtz	1B	51	182	52	0.286	8	37	0.444	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.277	0.433	0.458	OK
Shea Langeliers	DH	47	192	60	0.312	12	27	0.384	4	4	3	0	0	0	1	0.750	0.218	0.295	0.378	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	48	183	36	0.197	5	23	0.285	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.185	0.271	0.321	OK
Jonah Heim	C	4	17	2	0.118	0	0	0.118	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.189	0.249	0.348	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	29	107	25	0.234	6	17	0.287	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.193	0.241	0.354	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	43	152	43	0.283	2	15	0.347	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.217	0.284	0.340	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	9	32	9	0.281	0	3	0.351	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.184	0.271	0.263	OK
Alika Williams	SS	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.241	0.306	0.383
TEAM TOTALS									35	35	8	1	1	0	8	0.229

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	2B	49	185	44	0.238	0	15	0.321	4	3	3	1	0	1	0	1.000	0.227	0.310	0.289	OK
Miguel Andujar	DH	38	144	41	0.285	5	17	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.238	0.262	0.461	OK
Gavin Sheets	LF	40	134	33	0.246	7	19	0.331	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.239	0.324	0.438	OK
Manny Machado	3B	49	176	31	0.176	8	24	0.271	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.170	0.265	0.345	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	48	176	42	0.239	6	22	0.308	3	3	2	1	3	0	1	0.667	0.181	0.252	0.259	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	46	179	37	0.207	4	19	0.279	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.178	0.252	0.285	OK
Ramón Laureano	RF	42	156	35	0.224	6	20	0.305	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.189	0.265	0.343	OK
Ty France	1B	22	76	21	0.276	4	13	0.312	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.206	0.239	0.358	OK
Rodolfo Durán	C	6	15	2	0.133	1	2	0.278	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.180	0.305	0.314	OK
TEAM TOTALS									31	30	6	3	3	1	10	0.200

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Luis Medina	Starter	13	17.5	1.54	1.029	9.3	18	4.1	2	0	0	1	8	72	4.1	8	0
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	26	18.4	3.91	2.174	12.7	26	1.1	3	3	3	0	1	26	1.1	1	3
Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	20	17.4	2.59	1.207	6.2	12	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	23	21.3	1.69	0.798	8.9	21	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael King	Starter	10	57.4	2.35	1.080	9.3	59	6.0	6	1	1	0	6	94	6.0	6	1
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	23	22.5	0.80	0.844	18.8	47	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	21	1.0	1	0
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	19	16.5	1.09	1.030	5.5	10	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	23	22.6	5.18	1.283	12.7	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

SD wins 3-1

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays

PIT 27-26 (4.83 RPG / 4.42 RA)

3 - 1

TOR 25-28 (4.04 RPG / 4.15 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 3-1 TARGET: PIT 3 - 2 TOR (PIT) Confidence: 54.6% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	3	8
TOR	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	8

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-109.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.275

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-84.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record26-26

Win%0.500

Run Diff19

RD/Game0.365

TOR Season Quality

Record25-27

Win%0.481

Run Diff-3

RD/Game-0.058

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4519; margin adjustment: -0.1898; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Spencer Horwitz	1B	40	133	36	0.271	3	19	0.383	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.241	0.346	0.396	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	44	173	46	0.266	13	32	0.360	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.245	0.334	0.482	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	49	180	46	0.256	4	31	0.384	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.218	0.329	0.339	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	42	165	53	0.321	0	21	0.376	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.252	0.300	0.330	OK
Oneil Cruz	DH	48	205	52	0.254	10	33	0.320	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.199	0.264	0.328	OK
Endy Rodríguez	C	4	14	6	0.429	0	2	0.556	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.236	0.388	0.364	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	2	5	0	0.000	0	0	0.167	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.185	0.304	0.271
Jake Mangum	CF	20	78	20	0.256	0	3	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.179	0.235	0.238	OK
Jared Triolo	SS	17	58	14	0.241	0	2	0.290	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.183	0.222	0.255	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	3	3	3	6	0.229

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
George Springer	DH	32	125	26	0.208	5	12	0.288	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.220	0.292	0.418	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	46	172	45	0.262	5	16	0.339	4	3	2	0	0	0	0	0.667	0.253	0.328	0.404	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	51	187	54	0.289	3	22	0.379	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.248	0.343	0.336	OK
Yohendrick Pinango	LF	17	57	18	0.316	1	8	0.350	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.237	0.276	0.362	OK
Jesús Sánchez	RF	38	131	38	0.290	5	20	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.271	0.311	0.405	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	49	183	39	0.213	10	27	0.296	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.163	0.248	0.273	OK
Ernie Clement	2B	49	194	57	0.294	3	17	0.320	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.243	0.279	0.408	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	44	159	39	0.245	5	27	0.278	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.187	0.223	0.315	OK
Brandon Valenzuela	C	25	78	19	0.244	4	10	0.330	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.198	0.288	0.305	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	1	1	1	9	0.229

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mitch Keller	Starter	10	57.4	3.92	1.080	6.4	41	6.0	6	1	1	1	5	106	6.0	5	1
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	23	22.4	2.41	0.848	11.7	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.0	2	0
Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	22	20.4	4.85	1.373	6.6	15	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	19	16.2	3.33	1.420	14.4	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dylan Cease	Starter	10	56.4	3.03	1.241	13.4	84	6.0	5	2	2	3	6	103	6.0	6	2
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	25	25.1	0.72	1.195	14.3	40	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	6	1.1	0	1
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	24	21.7	1.66	1.152	6.2	15	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	25	20.9	5.60	1.770	17.2	40	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.2	0	0
Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	26	24.0	3.38	1.250	11.2	30	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	11	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 3-1

Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals

SEA 25-29 (4.04 RPG / 3.93 RA)

1 - 3

KC 22-31 (3.91 RPG / 4.38 RA)

WINNER: KC wins 3-1 TARGET: SEA 2 - 3 KC (KC) Confidence: 52.1% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	6
KC	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	x	3	8

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.314

Avg Runs1.0

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-115.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

KC Recent Form

Win%0.157

Avg Runs0.8

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff-142.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record25-28

Win%0.472

Run Diff8

RD/Game0.151

KC Season Quality

Record21-31

Win%0.404

Run Diff-27

RD/Game-0.519

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.772; margin adjustment: -0.3242; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	SS	42	149	30	0.201	6	16	0.346	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.194	0.310	0.342	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	53	210	54	0.257	8	21	0.322	4	2	1	0	0	2	1	0.500	0.236	0.295	0.400	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	49	191	47	0.246	5	22	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.216	0.286	0.301	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	53	187	55	0.294	5	21	0.389	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.238	0.327	0.421	OK
Luke Raley	RF	37	117	34	0.291	9	25	0.352	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.262	0.303	0.457	OK
Cole Young	2B	53	183	44	0.240	3	26	0.324	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.196	0.275	0.301	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	34	95	24	0.253	4	18	0.330	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.205	0.281	0.375	OK
Mitch Garver	C	17	52	10	0.192	2	5	0.364	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.176	0.338	0.310	OK
Colt Emerson	3B	6	17	2	0.118	1	3	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.167	0.246	0.287	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	1	1	4	8	0.182

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Maikel Garcia	3B	49	199	52	0.261	3	18	0.320	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.212	0.269	0.329	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	52	205	61	0.298	7	23	0.365	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.235	0.305	0.379	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	48	181	36	0.199	5	23	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.182	0.268	0.279	OK
Salvador Perez	C	50	193	39	0.202	8	21	0.249	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.185	0.227	0.324	OK
Carter Jensen	DH	42	141	32	0.227	6	21	0.321	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.193	0.292	0.308	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	41	147	36	0.245	4	9	0.311	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.206	0.258	0.342	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	41	138	29	0.210	3	16	0.327	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.165	0.265	0.248	OK
Michael Massey	2B	30	94	23	0.245	3	12	0.255	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	0.667	0.201	0.219	0.352	OK
Kyle Isbel	CF	40	126	33	0.262	3	10	0.321	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.184	0.232	0.304	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	8	3	3	2	8	0.250

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryan Woo	Starter	10	59.0	3.51	0.983	8.4	55	6.0	8	3	3	2	7	108	6.0	7	3
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	21	18.5	4.86	1.351	15.6	32	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	14	0.2	1	0
José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	24	21.1	2.13	1.374	9.4	22	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	6	1.1	0	0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Seth Lugo	Starter	10	57.5	3.76	1.426	8.0	51	5.2	3	0	0	3	4	94	5.2	4	0
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	20	18.4	3.42	1.522	8.3	17	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	20	16.8	4.29	1.488	7.5	14	1.1	2	1	1	1	1	27	1.1	1	1
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	20	18.9	1.90	1.005	12.4	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	20	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

KC wins 3-1

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

STL 29-22 (4.57 RPG / 4.55 RA)

4 - 1

CIN 27-25 (4.4 RPG / 5.06 RA)

WINNER: STL wins 4-1 TARGET: STL 3 - 2 CIN (STL) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	4	9
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	7

STL Recent Form

Win%0.137

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-114.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.288

Avg Runs1.6

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff-137.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

STL Season Quality

Record29-22

Win%0.569

Run Diff1

RD/Game0.020

CIN Season Quality

Record27-25

Win%0.519

Run Diff-34

RD/Game-0.654

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7475; margin adjustment: -0.314; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Victor Scott II	CF	43	125	25	0.200	2	7	0.263	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.224	0.283	0.321	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	44	167	40	0.240	1	18	0.314	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.206	0.280	0.304	OK
JJ Wetherholt	SS	49	192	46	0.240	9	25	0.359	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.227	0.322	0.372	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	48	192	57	0.297	7	35	0.366	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.283	0.352	0.457	OK
Pedro Pagés	C	32	108	23	0.213	4	9	0.259	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.198	0.235	0.326	OK
Nolan Gorman	3B	44	161	35	0.217	5	24	0.303	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.184	0.281	0.295	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	49	190	58	0.305	15	42	0.376	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.241	0.307	0.485	OK
José Fermín	LF	12	40	8	0.200	1	4	0.233	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.178	0.220	0.277	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	51	191	51	0.267	6	25	0.393	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.210	0.311	0.396	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	36	9	4	4	2	10	0.250

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
TJ Friedl	CF	39	144	26	0.181	2	8	0.261	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.165	0.224	0.246	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	52	208	60	0.288	12	35	0.355	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.227	0.300	0.436	OK
Matt McLain	2B	47	181	37	0.204	5	20	0.301	4	4	3	1	1	0	1	0.750	0.181	0.265	0.310	OK
Spencer Steer	LF	48	173	46	0.266	7	18	0.337	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.244	0.308	0.372	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	36	119	20	0.168	3	13	0.273	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.164	0.272	0.252	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	52	195	50	0.256	12	34	0.352	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.227	0.336	0.427	OK
Will Benson	RF	25	67	10	0.149	1	3	0.269	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.165	0.268	0.257	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	24	85	23	0.271	6	20	0.376	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.191	0.300	0.390	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	DH	29	103	29	0.282	8	22	0.351	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.214	0.282	0.442	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	1	1	2	9	0.206

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brycen Mautz	Starter	0	0	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	3.0	5	1	1	2	6	70	3.0	6	1
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	24	22.7	3.17	1.057	10.7	27	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	24	1.2	1	0
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	24	20.0	3.60	1.500	9.9	22	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	24	1.2	2	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	23	18.4	3.91	1.359	8.3	17	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	24	17.5	7.20	2.229	14.4	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brady Singer	Starter	10	44.6	6.46	1.749	6.9	34	4.0	7	3	3	0	5	94	4.0	5	3
Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	24	23.9	2.26	1.213	11.3	30	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	30	2.0	2	0
Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	21	19.3	4.20	1.399	9.8	21	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	20	1.0	3	0
Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	23	17.6	4.09	1.477	10.2	20	2.0	1	1	1	0	0	28	2.0	0	1

Game Summary

STL wins 4-1

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

TB 34-16 (4.72 RPG / 3.92 RA)

1 - 2

NYY 31-22 (4.79 RPG / 3.53 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 2-1 TARGET: TB 1 - 2 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	8
NYY	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	x	2	6

TB Recent Form

Win%0.327

Avg Runs1.6

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff-54.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.294

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed2.6

Run Diff-69.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

TB Season Quality

Record34-15

Win%0.694

Run Diff42

RD/Game0.857

NYY Season Quality

Record30-22

Win%0.577

Run Diff65

RD/Game1.250

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2174; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	46	177	55	0.311	8	33	0.391	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.273	0.337	0.483	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	46	171	45	0.263	8	38	0.364	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.222	0.325	0.369	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	48	186	50	0.269	13	27	0.360	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.258	0.360	0.462	OK
Ryan Vilade	RF	17	50	17	0.340	2	12	0.414	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.265	0.356	0.469	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	45	183	51	0.279	0	8	0.313	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.214	0.257	0.283	OK
Nick Fortes	C	29	102	27	0.265	1	7	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.210	0.225	0.293	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	37	114	24	0.211	0	14	0.318	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.196	0.304	0.332	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	39	144	26	0.181	3	14	0.242	4	3	2	0	0	0	0	0.667	0.189	0.244	0.284	OK
Carson Williams	2B	7	25	3	0.120	0	3	0.154	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.141	0.180	0.235	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	1	1	4	6	0.229

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trent Grisham	CF	41	150	27	0.180	4	22	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.191	0.307	0.328	OK
Aaron Judge	RF	52	188	46	0.245	16	30	0.377	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.190	0.316	0.356	OK
Ben Rice	DH	43	163	46	0.282	15	31	0.379	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.219	0.305	0.452	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	50	181	49	0.271	6	30	0.381	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.232	0.348	0.430	OK
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	20	74	19	0.257	5	12	0.345	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.215	0.287	0.445	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	48	181	45	0.249	5	19	0.325	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.234	0.306	0.384	OK
José Caballero	SS	40	138	37	0.268	4	13	0.327	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.221	0.271	0.339	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	36	122	20	0.164	3	12	0.209	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.144	0.186	0.253	OK
Austin Wells	C	37	115	20	0.174	4	6	0.294	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.146	0.261	0.248	OK
TEAM TOTALS									31	30	6	2	2	1	6	0.200

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	9	47.3	3.23	1.015	8.6	45	5.2	5	2	2	1	5	90	5.2	5	2
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	23	20.4	2.65	1.078	11.0	25	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	22	1.2	1	0
Ian Seymour	Middle Reliever	22	21.8	3.72	1.193	12.0	29	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.2	0	0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Weathers	Starter	9	48.7	3.70	1.170	11.3	61	5.2	4	0	0	2	3	102	5.2	3	0
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	22	20.6	5.24	1.699	12.2	28	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	23	1.0	0	1
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	24	14.6	3.08	1.849	18.5	30	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	23	1.1	2	0
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	23	15.7	1.72	1.083	4.6	8	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 2-1

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

TEX 24-28 (3.87 RPG / 3.75 RA)

5 - 0

LAA 20-34 (4.02 RPG / 5.17 RA)

WINNER: TEX wins 5-0 TARGET: TEX 3 - 1 LAA (TEX) Confidence: 59.8% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	7
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.255

Avg Runs1.2

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff-106.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.170

Avg Runs0.9

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-180.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

TEX Season Quality

Record24-26

Win%0.480

Run Diff10

RD/Game0.200

LAA Season Quality

Record18-34

Win%0.346

Run Diff-66

RD/Game-1.269

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.67; margin adjustment: -0.7014; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Andrew McCutchen	LF	13	36	9	0.250	1	3	0.325	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.243	0.316	0.376	OK
Justin Foscue	2B	10	35	12	0.343	2	6	0.400	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.293	0.352	0.504	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	49	193	53	0.275	6	18	0.350	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.249	0.311	0.448	OK
Jake Burger	1B	48	185	44	0.238	8	30	0.290	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.245	0.308	0.430	OK
Ezequiel Duran	3B	37	130	37	0.285	4	22	0.340	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.249	0.305	0.437	OK
Danny Jansen	C	30	99	19	0.192	3	10	0.298	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.183	0.268	0.342	OK
Sam Haggerty	CF	9	19	4	0.211	0	0	0.250	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.196	0.236	0.312	OK
Kyle Higashioka	DH	21	75	15	0.200	3	9	0.268	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.179	0.245	0.312	OK
Michael Helman	SS	2	6	1	0.167	0	0	0.167	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.178	0.190	0.263	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	34	7	5	5	5	6	0.206

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	53	207	47	0.227	10	24	0.337	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.214	0.308	0.441	OK
Mike Trout	CF	52	184	44	0.239	13	27	0.402	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.214	0.371	0.438	OK
Vaughn Grissom	1B	23	87	20	0.230	2	12	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.183	0.251	0.296	OK
Jorge Soler	DH	48	177	38	0.215	9	30	0.304	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.189	0.262	0.350	OK
Jo Adell	RF	53	204	51	0.250	7	28	0.295	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.187	0.214	0.311	OK
Oswald Peraza	3B	34	120	33	0.275	6	14	0.346	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.223	0.270	0.381	OK
Jose Siri	LF	3	7	2	0.286	0	0	0.286	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.204	0.216	0.398	OK
Sebastián Rivero	C	10	27	4	0.148	0	0	0.179	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.155	0.188	0.217	OK
Adam Frazier	2B	19	58	15	0.259	1	5	0.317	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.172	0.230	0.313	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	0	0	1	6	0.229

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
MacKenzie Gore	Starter	10	47.6	4.92	1.366	10.4	55	5.2	5	0	0	1	4	90	5.2	4	0
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	18	22.5	0.80	0.444	8.4	21	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	12	1.1	1	0
Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	18	20.3	1.77	0.739	4.0	9	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Chris Martin	Middle Reliever	9	6.4	9.84	2.188	9.8	7	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	13	0.0	0	0
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	23	20.4	2.21	1.520	8.4	19	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Reid Detmers	Starter	10	52.2	5.34	1.360	10.5	61	5.0	6	5	5	5	4	101	5.0	4	5
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	19	22.0	5.32	1.364	12.3	30	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	1.0	1	0
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	18	21.5	2.93	1.116	10.5	25	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	7	5.4	5.00	1.296	15.0	9	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
José Fermin	Middle Reliever	12	9.7	3.71	1.649	10.2	11	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	18	0.1	0	0
Brent Suter	Middle Reliever	19	24.9	5.06	1.486	8.7	24	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	13	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

TEX wins 5-0

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

WAS 27-27 (5.33 RPG / 5.59 RA)

1 - 4

ATL 36-18 (5.22 RPG / 3.33 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 4-1 TARGET: WAS 1 - 4 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	5
ATL	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	x	4	6

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.264

Avg Runs1.5

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-138.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.269

Avg Runs1.3

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-77.0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak

WAS Season Quality

Record26-27

Win%0.491

Run Diff-15

RD/Game-0.283

ATL Season Quality

Record36-17

Win%0.679

Run Diff103

RD/Game1.943

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.5094; margin adjustment: 1.054; applied: True

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	LF	53	203	52	0.256	13	34	0.396	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.236	0.361	0.431	OK
Curtis Mead	3B	21	78	21	0.269	4	12	0.374	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.228	0.318	0.407	OK
Andrés Chaparro	1B	5	12	2	0.167	0	1	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.208	0.309	0.360	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	51	190	56	0.295	11	45	0.386	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.229	0.312	0.466	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	5	20	4	0.200	1	1	0.238	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.183	0.224	0.280	OK
Daylen Lile	DH	52	210	56	0.267	7	26	0.320	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.214	0.265	0.365	OK
Jacob Young	CF	44	164	37	0.226	6	22	0.274	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.203	0.246	0.391	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	45	148	28	0.189	0	15	0.297	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.153	0.253	0.198	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	28	95	25	0.263	4	20	0.280	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.225	0.246	0.465	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	1	1	2	4	0.156

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ronald Acuña Jr.	DH	39	146	36	0.247	2	11	0.356	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.238	0.340	0.358	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	49	184	48	0.261	3	27	0.313	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.259	0.300	0.404	OK
Matt Olson	1B	53	205	54	0.263	14	42	0.343	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.215	0.303	0.402	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	53	204	54	0.265	8	27	0.325	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.215	0.280	0.325	OK
Austin Riley	3B	52	196	43	0.219	8	31	0.290	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.211	0.272	0.368	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	44	172	49	0.285	10	25	0.307	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.245	0.270	0.445	OK
Eli White	RF	17	48	11	0.229	2	8	0.255	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.229	0.264	0.389	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	9	31	4	0.129	0	2	0.229	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.170	0.264	0.225	OK
Sandy León	C	5	14	2	0.143	0	0	0.143	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.181	0.193	0.261	OK
TEAM TOTALS									31	30	6	4	4	1	7	0.200

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Foster Griffin	Starter	10	55.3	4.07	1.193	8.8	54	5.1	6	4	4	1	4	93	5.1	4	4
Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	20	16.4	4.39	1.707	10.4	19	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	16	32.2	3.07	1.118	8.1	29	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Martín Pérez	Starter	10	40.3	2.90	1.017	8.5	38	5.0	5	1	1	1	4	82	5.0	4	1
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	15	15.2	0.00	0.724	11.2	19	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	22	21.4	0.84	0.935	8.4	20	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.2	0	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	25	22.0	1.23	0.682	11.9	29	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-1

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants

CHW Recent Form

SF Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

SF Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies

CLE Recent Form

PHI Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

PHI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

COL Recent Form

ARI Recent Form

COL Season Quality

ARI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles

DET Recent Form

BAL Recent Form

DET Season Quality

BAL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles

DET Recent Form

BAL Recent Form

DET Season Quality

BAL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs

HOU Recent Form

CHC Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

CHC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers

LAD Recent Form

MIL Recent Form

LAD Season Quality

MIL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox