| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW @ SF | 3 - 5 | 4 - 6 | SF | SF | SF wins 6-4 | 57% | enhanced_ml |
| CLE @ PHI | 2 - 3 | 2 - 4 | PHI | PHI | PHI wins 4-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| COL @ ARI | 1 - 3 | 1 - 5 | ARI | ARI | ARI wins 5-1 | 60% | enhanced_ml |
| DET @ BAL | 4 - 3 | 5 - 2 | DET | DET | DET wins 5-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| HOU @ CHC | 1 - 2 | 2 - 3 | CHC | CHC | CHC wins 3-2 | 55% | enhanced_ml |
| LAD @ MIL | 3 - 4 | 4 - 5 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 5-4 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| MIN @ BOS | 1 - 2 | 2 - 3 | BOS | BOS | BOS wins 3-2 | 52% | enhanced_ml |
| NYM @ MIA | 3 - 2 | 5 - 1 | NYM | NYM | NYM wins 5-1 | 58% | enhanced_ml |
| OAK @ SD | 3 - 1 | 3 - 2 | OAK | OAK | OAK wins 3-2 | 56% | enhanced_ml |
| PIT @ TOR | 3 - 2 | 2 - 1 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 2-1 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| SEA @ KC | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | KC | KC | KC wins 5-4 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| STL @ CIN | 5 - 6 | 6 - 3 | CIN | STL | STL wins 6-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| TB @ NYY | 2 - 1 | 4 - 0 | TB | TB | TB wins 4-0 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| TEX @ LAA | 5 - 2 | 3 - 1 | TEX | TEX | TEX wins 3-1 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| WAS @ ATL | 1 - 4 | 2 - 3 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 3-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| SF | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | x | 6 | 10 |
Quality edge: -0.9604; margin adjustment: -0.4034; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 28 | 98 | 27 | 0.276 | 1 | 9 | 0.368 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.263 | 0.308 | 0.386 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 47 | 169 | 41 | 0.243 | 17 | 33 | 0.383 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.395 | 0.502 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 45 | 166 | 39 | 0.235 | 11 | 29 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.230 | 0.331 | 0.487 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 46 | 172 | 38 | 0.221 | 13 | 31 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.198 | 0.276 | 0.422 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 45 | 169 | 46 | 0.272 | 3 | 11 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.303 | 0.329 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 36 | 131 | 33 | 0.252 | 3 | 18 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.291 | 0.405 | OK |
| Edgar Quero | C | 23 | 79 | 13 | 0.165 | 0 | 7 | 0.242 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.183 | 0.251 | 0.235 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 35 | 107 | 27 | 0.252 | 2 | 11 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.285 | 0.394 | OK |
| Derek Hill | RF | 11 | 29 | 6 | 0.207 | 1 | 1 | 0.258 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.194 | 0.246 | 0.304 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Willy Adames | SS | 49 | 196 | 46 | 0.235 | 5 | 15 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.236 | 0.275 | 0.430 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 47 | 185 | 59 | 0.319 | 2 | 17 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.271 | 0.325 | 0.421 | OK |
| Casey Schmitt | LF | 41 | 156 | 46 | 0.295 | 9 | 22 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.260 | 0.286 | 0.491 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 50 | 191 | 47 | 0.246 | 6 | 20 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.275 | 0.404 | OK |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 48 | 185 | 42 | 0.227 | 1 | 16 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.277 | 0.324 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 9 | 31 | 5 | 0.161 | 1 | 2 | 0.212 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.234 | 0.292 | OK |
| Jesus Rodriguez | C | 8 | 28 | 6 | 0.214 | 1 | 4 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.183 | 0.216 | 0.259 | OK |
| Drew Gilbert | RF | 25 | 82 | 18 | 0.220 | 2 | 8 | 0.281 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.179 | 0.234 | 0.298 | OK |
| Harrison Bader | CF | 21 | 79 | 13 | 0.165 | 4 | 9 | 0.193 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.165 | 0.197 | 0.344 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 34 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Davis Martin | Starter | 9 | 55.3 | 1.63 | 0.995 | 9.6 | 59 | 7.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 114 | 7.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trevor McDonald | Starter | 3 | 18.3 | 2.46 | 1.038 | 8.4 | 17 | 6.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 102 | 6.0 | 5 | 4 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.3 | 2.95 | 1.311 | 10.8 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 22 | 20.4 | 2.21 | 0.833 | 8.8 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Miller | Middle Reliever | 14 | 10.0 | 5.40 | 1.900 | 16.2 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joel Peguero | Middle Reliever | 7 | 5.6 | 1.61 | 0.893 | 3.2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
SF wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 9 |
Quality edge: -1.0377; margin adjustment: -0.4358; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Angel Martínez | RF | 39 | 152 | 41 | 0.270 | 9 | 25 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.235 | 0.263 | 0.462 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 52 | 191 | 45 | 0.236 | 8 | 24 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.366 | 0.462 | OK |
| Rhys Hoskins | 1B | 32 | 102 | 20 | 0.196 | 4 | 16 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.341 | 0.400 | OK |
| David Fry | DH | 20 | 58 | 14 | 0.241 | 3 | 8 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.330 | 0.382 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 20 | 71 | 20 | 0.282 | 2 | 9 | 0.407 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.259 | 0.363 | 0.368 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 50 | 162 | 47 | 0.290 | 4 | 27 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.355 | 0.451 | OK |
| Steven Kwan | LF | 47 | 173 | 35 | 0.202 | 1 | 11 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.342 | 0.268 | OK |
| Austin Hedges | C | 20 | 61 | 15 | 0.246 | 1 | 4 | 0.319 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.184 | 0.273 | 0.315 | OK |
| Petey Halpin | CF | 4 | 16 | 2 | 0.125 | 0 | 1 | 0.176 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.166 | 0.216 | 0.237 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trea Turner | SS | 48 | 201 | 48 | 0.239 | 5 | 16 | 0.290 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.283 | 0.362 | OK |
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 47 | 178 | 41 | 0.230 | 20 | 36 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.332 | 0.579 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 49 | 180 | 48 | 0.267 | 12 | 31 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.308 | 0.447 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 45 | 167 | 37 | 0.222 | 5 | 22 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.243 | 0.298 | 0.422 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 42 | 162 | 53 | 0.327 | 4 | 22 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.242 | 0.267 | 0.362 | OK |
| Adolis García | RF | 47 | 172 | 35 | 0.203 | 3 | 13 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.161 | 0.228 | 0.247 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 39 | 144 | 32 | 0.222 | 5 | 21 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.258 | 0.419 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 30 | 104 | 22 | 0.212 | 1 | 8 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.165 | 0.229 | 0.245 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 40 | 134 | 36 | 0.269 | 2 | 11 | 0.342 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.195 | 0.268 | 0.328 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gavin Williams | Starter | 10 | 60.4 | 3.73 | 1.209 | 10.9 | 73 | 6.1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 112 | 6.1 | 1 | 4 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 23 | 23.2 | 2.72 | 1.164 | 13.6 | 35 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever | 25 | 16.8 | 2.14 | 1.190 | 20.9 | 39 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cristopher Sánchez | Starter | 10 | 63.4 | 1.85 | 1.215 | 11.4 | 80 | 6.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 96 | 6.1 | 7 | 1 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 13 | 12.2 | 1.48 | 1.066 | 15.5 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.5 | 4.15 | 1.231 | 11.1 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 23 | 13.7 | 7.88 | 2.482 | 15.8 | 24 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
PHI wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: 1.2496; margin adjustment: 0.5248; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | CF | 34 | 105 | 30 | 0.286 | 2 | 16 | 0.330 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.287 | 0.424 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | RF | 39 | 142 | 46 | 0.324 | 2 | 20 | 0.377 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.265 | 0.316 | 0.395 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 43 | 171 | 40 | 0.234 | 11 | 18 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.198 | 0.247 | 0.353 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 46 | 172 | 47 | 0.273 | 5 | 24 | 0.351 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.238 | 0.313 | 0.373 | OK |
| Willi Castro | 2B | 37 | 132 | 33 | 0.250 | 2 | 16 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.296 | 0.356 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 45 | 163 | 34 | 0.209 | 1 | 13 | 0.266 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.260 | 0.308 | OK |
| Edouard Julien | DH | 34 | 118 | 27 | 0.229 | 2 | 12 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.168 | 0.254 | 0.253 | OK |
| Sterlin Thompson | LF | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0.143 | 0 | 0 | 0.143 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.179 | 0.190 | 0.259 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 43 | 134 | 28 | 0.209 | 1 | 11 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.166 | 0.269 | 0.260 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 44 | 182 | 44 | 0.242 | 7 | 22 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.276 | 0.334 | 0.485 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 46 | 163 | 46 | 0.282 | 7 | 26 | 0.390 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.283 | 0.392 | 0.586 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 46 | 158 | 35 | 0.222 | 2 | 15 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.361 | 0.372 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 45 | 153 | 42 | 0.275 | 7 | 25 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.322 | 0.446 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 40 | 165 | 52 | 0.315 | 7 | 29 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.278 | 0.390 | OK |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | LF | 24 | 91 | 20 | 0.220 | 1 | 9 | 0.280 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.217 | 0.275 | 0.336 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 24 | 89 | 22 | 0.247 | 2 | 12 | 0.310 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.311 | 0.386 | OK |
| Adrian Del Castillo | DH | 27 | 97 | 17 | 0.175 | 2 | 14 | 0.236 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.168 | 0.239 | 0.265 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 12 | 39 | 11 | 0.282 | 0 | 6 | 0.364 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.309 | 0.370 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 30 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0.233 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Starter | 9 | 45.6 | 4.14 | 1.294 | 4.9 | 25 | 5.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 89 | 5.1 | 4 | 5 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 14 | 27.3 | 1.32 | 0.916 | 8.6 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.6 | 4.81 | 1.845 | 12.7 | 29 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever | 21 | 14.1 | 3.83 | 1.844 | 13.4 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Middle Reliever | 22 | 14.0 | 5.14 | 1.786 | 9.0 | 14 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Seth Halvorsen | Middle Reliever | 8 | 8.0 | 2.25 | 1.750 | 9.0 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Soroka | Starter | 9 | 47.6 | 3.59 | 1.366 | 10.4 | 55 | 6.1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 104 | 6.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 7.5 | 1 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Taylor Clarke | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 360.00 | 30.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
ARI wins 5-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| BAL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.6873; margin adjustment: -0.2886; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kevin McGonigle | SS | 48 | 181 | 52 | 0.287 | 2 | 16 | 0.397 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.351 | 0.359 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 41 | 156 | 38 | 0.244 | 9 | 28 | 0.322 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.295 | 0.436 | OK |
| Jahmai Jones | DH | 12 | 31 | 6 | 0.194 | 1 | 3 | 0.306 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.201 | 0.311 | 0.360 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 50 | 180 | 59 | 0.328 | 4 | 24 | 0.424 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.270 | 0.361 | 0.407 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 47 | 162 | 32 | 0.198 | 7 | 19 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.181 | 0.277 | 0.342 | OK |
| Wenceel Pérez | CF | 27 | 96 | 14 | 0.146 | 0 | 5 | 0.196 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.169 | 0.218 | 0.226 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | RF | 24 | 81 | 15 | 0.185 | 1 | 6 | 0.250 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.253 | 0.263 | OK |
| Gage Workman | 3B | 5 | 19 | 4 | 0.211 | 1 | 3 | 0.211 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 0.193 | 0.375 | OK |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 2B | 17 | 51 | 9 | 0.176 | 0 | 4 | 0.236 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.174 | 0.232 | 0.297 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Taylor Ward | LF | 49 | 175 | 45 | 0.257 | 2 | 14 | 0.415 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.226 | 0.382 | 0.379 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 49 | 209 | 46 | 0.220 | 10 | 24 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.285 | 0.405 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 31 | 122 | 31 | 0.254 | 7 | 24 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.261 | 0.398 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 50 | 189 | 43 | 0.228 | 9 | 28 | 0.310 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.233 | 0.305 | 0.416 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | DH | 35 | 131 | 35 | 0.267 | 7 | 16 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.293 | 0.442 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | CF | 31 | 104 | 27 | 0.260 | 2 | 18 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.305 | 0.342 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | RF | 25 | 75 | 13 | 0.173 | 1 | 7 | 0.259 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.184 | 0.265 | 0.293 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 38 | 125 | 23 | 0.184 | 5 | 17 | 0.261 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.186 | 0.259 | 0.333 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.175 | 0.188 | 0.273 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Flaherty | Starter | 10 | 41.8 | 6.03 | 1.675 | 10.3 | 48 | 4.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 88 | 4.1 | 3 | 2 |
| Kenley Jansen | Middle Reliever | 15 | 12.4 | 2.18 | 0.968 | 13.8 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.8 | 0.87 | 1.442 | 6.5 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Vest | Middle Reliever | 15 | 11.8 | 6.86 | 1.610 | 11.4 | 15 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Holton | Middle Reliever | 22 | 19.5 | 5.54 | 1.846 | 8.3 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Keegan Akin | Starter | 10 | 7.5 | 15.60 | 2.267 | 9.6 | 8 | 3.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 58 | 3.0 | 3 | 4 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 23 | 18.8 | 0.96 | 0.638 | 12.0 | 25 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nunez | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.1 | 4.48 | 1.194 | 11.6 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever | 22 | 15.2 | 1.78 | 0.658 | 7.7 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 10 | 6.7 | 12.09 | 2.537 | 10.7 | 8 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Wells | Middle Reliever | 17 | 20.7 | 3.48 | 1.353 | 9.1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Albert Suárez | Reliever | 6 | 15.2 | 3.55 | 1.316 | 5.3 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
DET wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | x | 3 | 7 |
Quality edge: 1.9398; margin adjustment: 0.8147; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 13 | 54 | 14 | 0.259 | 0 | 1 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.268 | 0.341 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 44 | 162 | 40 | 0.247 | 5 | 20 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.280 | 0.381 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 51 | 185 | 56 | 0.303 | 15 | 31 | 0.412 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.229 | 0.336 | 0.455 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 50 | 183 | 47 | 0.257 | 11 | 31 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.206 | 0.267 | 0.397 | OK |
| Jake Meyers | CF | 12 | 44 | 10 | 0.227 | 1 | 4 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.272 | 0.340 | OK |
| Braden Shewmake | 2B | 14 | 52 | 14 | 0.269 | 2 | 6 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.208 | 0.215 | 0.332 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 45 | 155 | 31 | 0.200 | 3 | 15 | 0.298 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.272 | 0.274 | OK |
| Zach Cole | LF | 12 | 40 | 7 | 0.175 | 2 | 4 | 0.195 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.168 | 0.177 | 0.296 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 25 | 80 | 21 | 0.262 | 3 | 14 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.272 | 0.311 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 48 | 196 | 51 | 0.260 | 4 | 30 | 0.345 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.237 | 0.326 | 0.351 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 48 | 175 | 40 | 0.229 | 4 | 26 | 0.357 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.355 | 0.409 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 48 | 195 | 47 | 0.241 | 4 | 15 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.309 | 0.339 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 48 | 177 | 38 | 0.215 | 10 | 20 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.176 | 0.309 | 0.331 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 34 | 129 | 35 | 0.271 | 7 | 18 | 0.371 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.225 | 0.316 | 0.350 | OK |
| Michael Conforto | DH | 15 | 46 | 15 | 0.326 | 2 | 8 | 0.456 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.381 | 0.490 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 31 | 114 | 33 | 0.289 | 1 | 13 | 0.367 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.251 | 0.324 | 0.352 | OK |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 49 | 180 | 41 | 0.228 | 5 | 20 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.175 | 0.238 | 0.312 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 47 | 161 | 30 | 0.186 | 7 | 25 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.172 | 0.269 | 0.315 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Spencer Arrighetti | Starter | 6 | 35.3 | 1.53 | 1.218 | 8.9 | 35 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 108 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 18 | 18.2 | 3.46 | 1.593 | 8.4 | 17 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.7 | 8.54 | 2.336 | 13.8 | 21 | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jameson Taillon | Starter | 9 | 49.5 | 5.09 | 1.232 | 7.6 | 42 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 92 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 11 | 8.5 | 2.12 | 1.647 | 11.6 | 11 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Caleb Thielbar | Middle Reliever | 11 | 7.8 | 2.31 | 1.282 | 12.7 | 11 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 21 | 18.1 | 3.48 | 1.657 | 11.4 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
CHC wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | x | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.3687; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 45 | 173 | 47 | 0.272 | 8 | 26 | 0.399 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.388 | 0.483 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 15 | 62 | 12 | 0.194 | 4 | 9 | 0.254 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.258 | 0.383 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 47 | 182 | 48 | 0.264 | 6 | 23 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.313 | 0.442 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 47 | 174 | 44 | 0.253 | 4 | 23 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.339 | 0.360 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 49 | 183 | 53 | 0.290 | 10 | 42 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.207 | 0.259 | 0.348 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 46 | 159 | 42 | 0.264 | 12 | 19 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.324 | 0.395 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 45 | 162 | 43 | 0.265 | 6 | 25 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.307 | 0.403 | OK |
| Dalton Rushing | C | 20 | 69 | 19 | 0.275 | 7 | 16 | 0.359 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.190 | 0.257 | 0.349 | OK |
| Hyeseong Kim | 2B | 33 | 101 | 27 | 0.267 | 1 | 10 | 0.336 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.282 | 0.281 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Chourio | CF | 14 | 63 | 18 | 0.286 | 1 | 5 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.223 | 0.270 | 0.369 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 44 | 165 | 48 | 0.291 | 7 | 29 | 0.413 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.373 | 0.434 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 44 | 179 | 53 | 0.296 | 3 | 27 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.261 | 0.334 | 0.352 | OK |
| Christian Yelich | DH | 18 | 72 | 19 | 0.264 | 2 | 9 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.271 | 0.401 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B | 10 | 34 | 11 | 0.324 | 1 | 6 | 0.439 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.347 | 0.410 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | LF | 37 | 141 | 42 | 0.298 | 7 | 28 | 0.369 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.267 | 0.337 | 0.452 | OK |
| Luis Rengifo | 3B | 33 | 124 | 26 | 0.210 | 0 | 14 | 0.272 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 0.248 | 0.277 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 40 | 148 | 32 | 0.216 | 3 | 13 | 0.284 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 0.240 | 0.264 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | SS | 31 | 98 | 20 | 0.204 | 1 | 11 | 0.292 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 0.286 | 0.265 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Justin Wrobleski | Starter | 8 | 50.2 | 2.51 | 1.036 | 4.8 | 27 | 6.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 97 | 6.2 | 6 | 3 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 21 | 18.5 | 1.46 | 0.649 | 9.7 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 21 | 14.9 | 3.02 | 1.074 | 13.9 | 23 | 0.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Logan Henderson | Starter | 4 | 18.0 | 3.50 | 1.056 | 11.5 | 23 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 72 | 4.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 20 | 16.7 | 4.85 | 1.257 | 10.2 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 17 | 17.0 | 3.18 | 1.059 | 11.6 | 22 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 22 | 26.4 | 3.07 | 1.629 | 15.7 | 46 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| DL Hall | Middle Reliever | 20 | 20.3 | 1.77 | 1.330 | 11.5 | 26 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
MIL wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.221; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Byron Buxton | DH | 42 | 177 | 46 | 0.260 | 15 | 23 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.292 | 0.523 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 44 | 164 | 40 | 0.244 | 5 | 22 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.257 | 0.335 | OK |
| Austin Martin | CF | 33 | 116 | 34 | 0.293 | 1 | 10 | 0.411 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.332 | 0.319 | OK |
| Josh Bell | 1B | 45 | 171 | 39 | 0.228 | 5 | 28 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.294 | 0.405 | OK |
| Gabriel Gonzalez | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.249 | 0.321 | 0.395 | |
| Ryan Kreidler | SS | 9 | 27 | 8 | 0.296 | 3 | 7 | 0.406 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.364 | 0.453 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | RF | 33 | 116 | 29 | 0.250 | 4 | 12 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.240 | 0.305 | 0.413 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | 2B | 46 | 170 | 39 | 0.229 | 1 | 17 | 0.311 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.197 | 0.275 | 0.293 | OK |
| Alex Jackson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.294 | 0.376 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jarren Duran | LF | 42 | 172 | 34 | 0.198 | 6 | 24 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.279 | 0.422 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 42 | 153 | 43 | 0.281 | 3 | 15 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.257 | 0.304 | 0.411 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 48 | 185 | 54 | 0.292 | 6 | 19 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.297 | 0.346 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 46 | 167 | 45 | 0.269 | 10 | 30 | 0.365 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.255 | 0.324 | 0.475 | OK |
| Andruw Monasterio | DH | 18 | 68 | 16 | 0.235 | 1 | 7 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.203 | 0.252 | 0.336 | OK |
| Nick Sogard | SS | 4 | 14 | 4 | 0.286 | 0 | 2 | 0.375 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.302 | 0.346 | OK |
| Marcelo Mayer | 2B | 37 | 123 | 26 | 0.211 | 2 | 9 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.186 | 0.252 | 0.302 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 30 | 94 | 21 | 0.223 | 2 | 3 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.196 | 0.266 | 0.311 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 42 | 141 | 24 | 0.170 | 1 | 14 | 0.250 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.154 | 0.207 | 0.250 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Connor Prielipp | Starter | 5 | 25.0 | 2.88 | 0.960 | 10.4 | 29 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 87 | 5.0 | 6 | 1 |
| Luis García | Middle Reliever | 8 | 8.2 | 6.59 | 1.463 | 2.2 | 2 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Taylor Rogers | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.7 | 3.06 | 1.769 | 8.6 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Eric Orze | Middle Reliever | 19 | 19.3 | 4.20 | 1.606 | 8.4 | 18 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Payton Tolle | Starter | 5 | 30.2 | 2.09 | 0.795 | 8.9 | 30 | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 93 | 6.0 | 7 | 1 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.2 | 0.52 | 0.872 | 12.0 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever | 19 | 19.1 | 2.83 | 1.047 | 11.3 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 9 | 7.3 | 0.00 | 0.822 | 13.6 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
BOS wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.1255; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 42 | 158 | 42 | 0.266 | 3 | 17 | 0.322 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.266 | 0.313 | 0.365 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 50 | 204 | 46 | 0.225 | 5 | 27 | 0.276 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.286 | 0.407 | OK |
| Juan Soto | DH | 34 | 129 | 37 | 0.287 | 9 | 20 | 0.384 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.263 | 0.362 | 0.519 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | 1B | 39 | 145 | 33 | 0.228 | 6 | 22 | 0.266 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.217 | 0.250 | 0.365 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 40 | 143 | 36 | 0.252 | 3 | 20 | 0.312 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.237 | 0.297 | 0.382 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 50 | 182 | 41 | 0.225 | 3 | 18 | 0.276 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.256 | 0.302 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 9 | 28 | 8 | 0.286 | 1 | 4 | 0.444 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.391 | 0.375 | OK |
| Nick Morabito | LF | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.184 | 0.196 | 0.276 | |
| Luis Torrens | C | 19 | 61 | 11 | 0.180 | 0 | 5 | 0.219 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.174 | 0.203 | 0.280 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 36 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 50 | 189 | 59 | 0.312 | 6 | 19 | 0.393 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.335 | 0.450 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | 1B | 40 | 147 | 42 | 0.286 | 9 | 42 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.281 | 0.361 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 3B | 43 | 145 | 32 | 0.221 | 4 | 14 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.199 | 0.286 | 0.329 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | DH | 27 | 100 | 23 | 0.230 | 3 | 8 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.308 | 0.396 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 46 | 173 | 35 | 0.202 | 3 | 13 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.340 | 0.396 | OK |
| Esteury Ruiz | LF | 9 | 28 | 4 | 0.143 | 2 | 4 | 0.167 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.161 | 0.197 | 0.285 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 35 | 108 | 23 | 0.213 | 3 | 18 | 0.270 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.270 | 0.376 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 13 | 42 | 7 | 0.167 | 0 | 6 | 0.222 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.167 | 0.225 | 0.263 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | SS | 27 | 94 | 23 | 0.245 | 1 | 15 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.177 | 0.232 | 0.315 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tobias Myers | Starter | 16 | 26.9 | 3.68 | 1.115 | 7.7 | 23 | 5.0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 92 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.5 | 3.48 | 1.290 | 14.5 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.7 | 3.65 | 1.218 | 10.1 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.3 | 1.66 | 1.288 | 12.7 | 23 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Eury Pérez | Starter | 10 | 52.1 | 5.36 | 1.420 | 10.0 | 58 | 5.1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 90 | 5.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 12 | 10.3 | 9.61 | 1.553 | 14.9 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.0 | 4.76 | 1.882 | 11.1 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Anthony Bender | Middle Reliever | 20 | 15.5 | 4.65 | 1.290 | 11.6 | 20 | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 |
NYM wins 5-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| SD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.2857; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carlos Cortes | RF | 31 | 104 | 35 | 0.337 | 4 | 16 | 0.412 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.270 | 0.357 | 0.423 | OK |
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 49 | 176 | 49 | 0.278 | 8 | 36 | 0.438 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.267 | 0.426 | 0.463 | OK |
| Shea Langeliers | C | 45 | 184 | 59 | 0.321 | 12 | 27 | 0.394 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.322 | 0.414 | OK |
| Brent Rooker | DH | 33 | 128 | 27 | 0.211 | 7 | 24 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.211 | 0.289 | 0.362 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 46 | 177 | 35 | 0.198 | 5 | 23 | 0.281 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.264 | 0.330 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 27 | 100 | 24 | 0.240 | 6 | 17 | 0.290 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.248 | 0.375 | OK |
| Henry Bolte | CF | 7 | 26 | 7 | 0.269 | 0 | 2 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.205 | 0.259 | 0.301 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 41 | 145 | 41 | 0.283 | 2 | 15 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.275 | 0.337 | OK |
| Darell Hernaiz | SS | 25 | 78 | 20 | 0.256 | 1 | 7 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.296 | 0.281 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 47 | 180 | 43 | 0.239 | 0 | 14 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.219 | 0.297 | 0.282 | OK |
| Miguel Andujar | DH | 36 | 136 | 40 | 0.294 | 5 | 17 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.274 | 0.496 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | 1B | 38 | 126 | 31 | 0.246 | 7 | 17 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.365 | 0.572 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 47 | 169 | 30 | 0.178 | 7 | 22 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.172 | 0.264 | 0.319 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 47 | 173 | 42 | 0.243 | 6 | 21 | 0.314 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.198 | 0.268 | 0.288 | OK |
| Ramón Laureano | LF | 41 | 153 | 34 | 0.222 | 5 | 19 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.199 | 0.276 | 0.320 | OK |
| Nick Castellanos | RF | 26 | 91 | 18 | 0.198 | 2 | 16 | 0.229 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.235 | 0.345 | OK |
| Bryce Johnson | CF | 7 | 22 | 4 | 0.182 | 0 | 2 | 0.280 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.277 | 0.325 | OK |
| Rodolfo Durán | C | 5 | 14 | 1 | 0.071 | 1 | 2 | 0.133 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.169 | 0.225 | 0.296 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jeffrey Springs | Starter | 10 | 54.3 | 3.98 | 1.215 | 7.8 | 47 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 97 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 26 | 18.4 | 3.91 | 2.174 | 12.7 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Joel Kuhnel | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.4 | 2.92 | 1.299 | 5.8 | 10 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 22 | 20.3 | 1.77 | 0.788 | 9.3 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Sterner | Middle Reliever | 24 | 19.7 | 4.57 | 1.523 | 11.0 | 24 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Walker Buehler | Starter | 9 | 39.7 | 5.21 | 1.411 | 8.4 | 37 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 84 | 4.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 22 | 21.5 | 0.84 | 0.884 | 18.8 | 45 | 2.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 2.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.5 | 1.24 | 1.034 | 4.3 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.5 | 5.71 | 1.415 | 12.7 | 29 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
OAK wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Quality edge: -0.81; margin adjustment: -0.3402; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Oneil Cruz | DH | 47 | 201 | 52 | 0.259 | 10 | 33 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.287 | 0.371 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 43 | 170 | 44 | 0.259 | 13 | 32 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.320 | 0.477 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 40 | 157 | 51 | 0.325 | 0 | 21 | 0.382 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.324 | 0.344 | OK |
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 38 | 128 | 35 | 0.273 | 3 | 18 | 0.387 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.361 | 0.416 | OK |
| Konnor Griffin | SS | 42 | 161 | 45 | 0.280 | 3 | 19 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.301 | 0.393 | OK |
| Jhostynxon Garcia | CF | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0.333 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.216 | 0.284 | OK |
| Endy Rodríguez | C | 3 | 10 | 4 | 0.400 | 0 | 2 | 0.571 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.434 | 0.403 | OK |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.316 | 0.399 | |
| Jake Mangum | LF | 19 | 75 | 20 | 0.267 | 0 | 3 | 0.321 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.196 | 0.256 | 0.257 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| George Springer | DH | 30 | 118 | 23 | 0.195 | 4 | 9 | 0.275 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.270 | 0.363 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 49 | 179 | 51 | 0.285 | 3 | 22 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.338 | 0.367 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 44 | 166 | 45 | 0.271 | 5 | 16 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.267 | 0.325 | 0.434 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 48 | 179 | 39 | 0.218 | 10 | 27 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.176 | 0.260 | 0.303 | OK |
| Yohendrick Pinango | LF | 15 | 50 | 15 | 0.300 | 1 | 6 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.270 | 0.335 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 47 | 187 | 55 | 0.294 | 3 | 16 | 0.318 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.281 | 0.425 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | RF | 36 | 124 | 35 | 0.282 | 5 | 18 | 0.321 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.256 | 0.298 | 0.375 | OK |
| Brandon Valenzuela | C | 24 | 76 | 19 | 0.250 | 4 | 10 | 0.321 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.287 | 0.327 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 42 | 152 | 38 | 0.250 | 5 | 27 | 0.284 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.224 | 0.326 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bubba Chandler | Starter | 9 | 41.3 | 5.23 | 1.550 | 7.8 | 36 | 4.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 83 | 4.1 | 5 | 1 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 23 | 22.4 | 2.41 | 0.848 | 11.7 | 29 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.4 | 3.71 | 1.237 | 6.0 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 19 | 16.2 | 3.33 | 1.420 | 14.4 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kevin Gausman | Starter | 10 | 55.7 | 3.55 | 1.077 | 8.6 | 53 | 5.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 92 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 24 | 23.1 | 0.78 | 1.299 | 14.4 | 37 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 24 | 21.7 | 1.66 | 1.152 | 6.2 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Middle Reliever | 24 | 19.9 | 5.88 | 1.859 | 16.7 | 37 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
PIT wins 2-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | x | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.9216; margin adjustment: -0.3871; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 40 | 141 | 30 | 0.213 | 6 | 16 | 0.362 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.219 | 0.339 | 0.381 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 51 | 203 | 52 | 0.256 | 8 | 21 | 0.320 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.232 | 0.290 | 0.403 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 51 | 182 | 55 | 0.302 | 5 | 21 | 0.393 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.275 | 0.351 | 0.479 | OK |
| Rob Refsnyder | DH | 13 | 40 | 4 | 0.100 | 1 | 2 | 0.159 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.180 | 0.236 | 0.274 | OK |
| Patrick Wisdom | 1B | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0.143 | 0 | 2 | 0.143 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.207 | 0.218 | 0.413 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 51 | 177 | 43 | 0.243 | 3 | 26 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.203 | 0.275 | 0.314 | OK |
| Mitch Garver | C | 16 | 48 | 8 | 0.167 | 1 | 3 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.187 | 0.361 | 0.290 | OK |
| Victor Robles | RF | 4 | 13 | 3 | 0.231 | 0 | 1 | 0.231 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.201 | 0.212 | 0.340 | OK |
| Colt Emerson | 3B | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0.091 | 1 | 3 | 0.286 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.178 | 0.293 | 0.314 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 37 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 47 | 191 | 49 | 0.257 | 3 | 18 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.266 | 0.321 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 50 | 197 | 59 | 0.299 | 7 | 23 | 0.369 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.238 | 0.312 | 0.398 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 46 | 174 | 34 | 0.195 | 5 | 22 | 0.280 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.179 | 0.266 | 0.281 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | C | 48 | 185 | 39 | 0.211 | 8 | 21 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.260 | 0.397 | OK |
| Carter Jensen | DH | 40 | 135 | 31 | 0.230 | 6 | 19 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.205 | 0.300 | 0.330 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 39 | 139 | 35 | 0.252 | 4 | 8 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.283 | 0.395 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 39 | 132 | 28 | 0.212 | 3 | 15 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.173 | 0.275 | 0.263 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 28 | 87 | 20 | 0.230 | 3 | 12 | 0.242 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.207 | 0.361 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 38 | 121 | 33 | 0.273 | 3 | 10 | 0.328 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.204 | 0.246 | 0.329 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Logan Gilbert | Starter | 10 | 55.5 | 4.54 | 1.171 | 9.2 | 57 | 5.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 106 | 5.2 | 7 | 4 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.5 | 5.14 | 1.429 | 16.5 | 32 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Middle Reliever | 24 | 21.1 | 2.13 | 1.374 | 9.4 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Noah Cameron | Starter | 8 | 40.5 | 5.56 | 1.556 | 8.0 | 36 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 85 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.4 | 3.42 | 1.522 | 8.3 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Mears | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.8 | 3.42 | 1.456 | 8.0 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.9 | 1.90 | 1.005 | 12.4 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| John Schreiber | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.3 | 3.87 | 1.718 | 6.1 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
KC wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.5351; margin adjustment: -0.2247; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Victor Scott II | CF | 41 | 117 | 22 | 0.188 | 2 | 7 | 0.244 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.261 | 0.323 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 42 | 159 | 39 | 0.245 | 1 | 17 | 0.320 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.279 | 0.320 | OK |
| JJ Wetherholt | SS | 47 | 182 | 44 | 0.242 | 9 | 24 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.224 | 0.316 | 0.379 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 46 | 184 | 54 | 0.293 | 7 | 34 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.337 | 0.454 | OK |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 31 | 105 | 23 | 0.219 | 4 | 9 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.213 | 0.252 | 0.348 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 42 | 152 | 34 | 0.224 | 5 | 24 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.308 | 0.336 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 47 | 181 | 54 | 0.298 | 13 | 35 | 0.369 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.296 | 0.428 | OK |
| José Fermín | LF | 12 | 40 | 8 | 0.200 | 1 | 4 | 0.233 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.187 | 0.229 | 0.293 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 49 | 183 | 48 | 0.262 | 6 | 24 | 0.386 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.207 | 0.302 | 0.386 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0.257 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| TJ Friedl | CF | 38 | 143 | 26 | 0.182 | 2 | 8 | 0.262 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.167 | 0.229 | 0.254 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 50 | 200 | 58 | 0.290 | 11 | 32 | 0.356 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.247 | 0.316 | 0.455 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 46 | 176 | 37 | 0.210 | 5 | 20 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.190 | 0.277 | 0.327 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | LF | 47 | 171 | 46 | 0.269 | 7 | 18 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.311 | 0.400 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 35 | 116 | 20 | 0.172 | 3 | 13 | 0.279 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.180 | 0.290 | 0.298 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 50 | 189 | 50 | 0.265 | 12 | 34 | 0.353 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.262 | 0.357 | 0.473 | OK |
| Will Benson | RF | 24 | 65 | 9 | 0.138 | 1 | 3 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.163 | 0.271 | 0.263 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 22 | 77 | 23 | 0.299 | 6 | 20 | 0.402 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.326 | 0.437 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | DH | 27 | 95 | 26 | 0.274 | 6 | 19 | 0.349 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.289 | 0.395 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Leahy | Starter | 9 | 45.2 | 3.98 | 1.571 | 6.8 | 34 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 98 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 23 | 21.6 | 3.33 | 1.065 | 10.4 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 23 | 19.0 | 3.79 | 1.474 | 9.9 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 22 | 17.4 | 4.14 | 1.437 | 8.8 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever | 23 | 16.5 | 7.64 | 2.303 | 14.7 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chris Paddack | Starter | 1 | 5.0 | 3.60 | 1.400 | 5.4 | 3 | 4.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 83 | 4.0 | 2 | 5 |
| Graham Ashcraft | Middle Reliever | 23 | 22.7 | 2.38 | 1.233 | 10.7 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.3 | 3.44 | 1.257 | 9.8 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierce Johnson | Middle Reliever | 22 | 15.6 | 4.62 | 1.667 | 11.0 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 24 | 18.7 | 4.33 | 1.818 | 12.0 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever | 7 | 7.1 | 6.34 | 0.845 | 8.9 | 7 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Connor Phillips | Reliever | 23 | 23.4 | 5.00 | 1.795 | 10.4 | 27 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 |
STL wins 6-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Quality edge: 0.3315; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 44 | 178 | 49 | 0.275 | 0 | 8 | 0.311 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.219 | 0.265 | 0.294 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 47 | 182 | 49 | 0.269 | 13 | 27 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.366 | 0.497 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 45 | 167 | 44 | 0.263 | 8 | 37 | 0.366 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.328 | 0.369 | OK |
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 45 | 174 | 55 | 0.316 | 8 | 33 | 0.394 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.280 | 0.341 | 0.516 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 25 | 73 | 18 | 0.247 | 1 | 10 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.338 | 0.340 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 38 | 140 | 24 | 0.171 | 3 | 14 | 0.235 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.271 | 0.328 | OK |
| Jonny DeLuca | RF | 26 | 99 | 26 | 0.263 | 1 | 12 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.258 | 0.346 | OK |
| Nick Fortes | C | 28 | 98 | 27 | 0.276 | 1 | 7 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.218 | 0.233 | 0.309 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 36 | 111 | 24 | 0.216 | 0 | 14 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.196 | 0.296 | 0.339 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trent Grisham | CF | 40 | 145 | 24 | 0.166 | 4 | 22 | 0.297 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.174 | 0.301 | 0.300 | OK |
| Aaron Judge | RF | 51 | 184 | 46 | 0.250 | 16 | 30 | 0.381 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.199 | 0.322 | 0.379 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 42 | 159 | 45 | 0.283 | 15 | 31 | 0.382 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.226 | 0.313 | 0.500 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 49 | 177 | 47 | 0.266 | 6 | 30 | 0.379 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.359 | 0.432 | OK |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 19 | 70 | 19 | 0.271 | 5 | 12 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.238 | 0.312 | 0.497 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 47 | 177 | 43 | 0.243 | 5 | 18 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.316 | 0.376 | OK |
| José Caballero | SS | 39 | 134 | 35 | 0.261 | 4 | 13 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.273 | 0.353 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 35 | 118 | 20 | 0.169 | 3 | 12 | 0.216 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.156 | 0.198 | 0.271 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 36 | 112 | 19 | 0.170 | 3 | 5 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.149 | 0.259 | 0.217 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nick Martinez | Starter | 9 | 52.5 | 1.54 | 1.067 | 6.0 | 35 | 6.1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 105 | 6.1 | 6 | 0 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 22 | 19.4 | 2.78 | 1.082 | 11.1 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Ian Seymour | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.6 | 3.50 | 1.165 | 11.8 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 22 | 19.6 | 2.76 | 0.867 | 7.8 | 17 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gerrit Cole | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.0 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 71 | 3.0 | 4 | 4 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.6 | 5.51 | 1.735 | 11.5 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 23 | 14.4 | 3.12 | 1.875 | 17.5 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 23 | 15.7 | 1.72 | 1.083 | 4.6 | 8 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Headrick | Middle Reliever | 25 | 21.0 | 2.57 | 1.476 | 12.4 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
TB wins 4-0
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Quality edge: -1.85; margin adjustment: -0.777; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joc Pederson | DH | 35 | 97 | 19 | 0.196 | 2 | 8 | 0.319 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.344 | 0.357 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 45 | 174 | 54 | 0.310 | 5 | 21 | 0.366 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.265 | 0.327 | 0.407 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 47 | 183 | 50 | 0.273 | 5 | 16 | 0.353 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.242 | 0.308 | 0.403 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | SS | 35 | 123 | 36 | 0.293 | 4 | 21 | 0.353 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.331 | 0.479 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 46 | 179 | 43 | 0.240 | 8 | 30 | 0.286 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.306 | 0.455 | OK |
| Alejandro Osuna | LF | 17 | 46 | 10 | 0.217 | 0 | 5 | 0.390 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.329 | 0.292 | OK |
| Justin Foscue | 2B | 8 | 29 | 10 | 0.345 | 2 | 5 | 0.375 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.314 | 0.484 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 42 | 136 | 24 | 0.176 | 5 | 13 | 0.294 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.172 | 0.283 | 0.286 | OK |
| Danny Jansen | C | 29 | 95 | 18 | 0.189 | 2 | 9 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.169 | 0.259 | 0.305 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0.161 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 51 | 200 | 43 | 0.215 | 8 | 22 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.178 | 0.273 | 0.349 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 50 | 176 | 41 | 0.233 | 12 | 25 | 0.400 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.361 | 0.390 | OK |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | 46 | 182 | 46 | 0.253 | 4 | 22 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.215 | 0.266 | 0.355 | OK |
| Jorge Soler | DH | 46 | 169 | 36 | 0.213 | 9 | 30 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.260 | 0.361 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 51 | 196 | 50 | 0.255 | 7 | 28 | 0.299 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.220 | 0.327 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.305 | 0.373 | |
| Oswald Peraza | 2B | 32 | 113 | 29 | 0.257 | 5 | 11 | 0.328 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.241 | 0.330 | OK |
| Logan O'Hoppe | C | 29 | 96 | 19 | 0.198 | 1 | 8 | 0.304 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.168 | 0.252 | 0.239 | OK |
| Donovan Walton | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.217 | 0.286 | 0.349 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob deGrom | Starter | 9 | 49.5 | 3.09 | 0.929 | 11.1 | 61 | 6.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 89 | 6.0 | 12 | 0 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 18 | 22.5 | 0.80 | 0.444 | 8.4 | 21 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 18 | 20.3 | 1.77 | 0.739 | 4.0 | 9 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Grayson Rodriguez | Starter | 1 | 3.2 | 19.69 | 3.438 | 11.2 | 4 | 3.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 79 | 3.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 18 | 21.0 | 5.14 | 1.381 | 12.4 | 29 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 17 | 20.5 | 3.07 | 1.122 | 11.0 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 6 | 4.4 | 6.14 | 1.591 | 16.4 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| José Fermin | Middle Reliever | 11 | 8.7 | 4.14 | 1.494 | 10.3 | 10 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Brent Suter | Middle Reliever | 18 | 23.9 | 4.90 | 1.464 | 9.0 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
TEX wins 3-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| ATL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
Quality edge: 2.6471; margin adjustment: 1.1118; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | DH | 51 | 197 | 50 | 0.254 | 13 | 34 | 0.390 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.242 | 0.358 | 0.453 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 36 | 132 | 34 | 0.258 | 3 | 21 | 0.288 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.222 | 0.255 | 0.393 | OK |
| Curtis Mead | 3B | 20 | 73 | 19 | 0.260 | 3 | 11 | 0.372 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.322 | 0.376 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 49 | 181 | 54 | 0.298 | 10 | 42 | 0.393 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.330 | 0.443 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | RF | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0.182 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.194 | 0.258 | 0.273 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 50 | 201 | 54 | 0.269 | 7 | 26 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.276 | 0.388 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 43 | 161 | 36 | 0.224 | 6 | 22 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.247 | 0.400 | OK |
| Drew Millas | C | 24 | 74 | 13 | 0.176 | 1 | 6 | 0.265 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.169 | 0.252 | 0.270 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | 2B | 43 | 139 | 27 | 0.194 | 0 | 15 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.153 | 0.267 | 0.200 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0.167 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 37 | 138 | 36 | 0.261 | 2 | 11 | 0.370 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.276 | 0.376 | 0.407 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 47 | 176 | 45 | 0.256 | 3 | 26 | 0.311 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.293 | 0.387 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 51 | 197 | 54 | 0.274 | 14 | 42 | 0.353 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.323 | 0.435 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 51 | 196 | 54 | 0.276 | 8 | 27 | 0.333 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.237 | 0.297 | 0.356 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 42 | 163 | 47 | 0.288 | 10 | 25 | 0.312 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.248 | 0.274 | 0.470 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 50 | 190 | 40 | 0.211 | 8 | 31 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.198 | 0.254 | 0.398 | OK |
| Dominic Smith | DH | 25 | 89 | 33 | 0.371 | 5 | 21 | 0.394 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.290 | 0.315 | 0.493 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 8 | 26 | 3 | 0.115 | 0 | 1 | 0.233 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.175 | 0.280 | 0.241 | OK |
| Sandy León | C | 5 | 14 | 2 | 0.143 | 0 | 0 | 0.143 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 0.204 | 0.281 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 37 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0.189 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Richard Lovelady | Starter | 13 | 11.0 | 2.45 | 2.000 | 11.5 | 14 | 4.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 66 | 4.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Gus Varland | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.4 | 4.68 | 1.753 | 10.5 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 15 | 29.2 | 3.39 | 1.199 | 8.0 | 26 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Parker | Middle Reliever | 10 | 22.3 | 4.84 | 1.076 | 7.7 | 19 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Clayton Beeter | Reliever | 11 | 10.4 | 3.46 | 1.346 | 9.5 | 11 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryce Elder | Starter | 10 | 60.8 | 2.07 | 1.020 | 8.3 | 56 | 6.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 102 | 6.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 14 | 14.2 | 0.00 | 0.775 | 11.4 | 18 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.4 | 0.44 | 0.882 | 8.8 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 24 | 21.0 | 0.86 | 0.619 | 12.4 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
ATL wins 3-2 (Extra Innings - 10)