MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

May 22, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
CHW @ SF3 - 54 - 6SFSFSF wins 6-457%enhanced_ml
CLE @ PHI2 - 32 - 4PHIPHIPHI wins 4-253%enhanced_ml
COL @ ARI1 - 31 - 5ARIARIARI wins 5-160%enhanced_ml
DET @ BAL4 - 35 - 2DETDETDET wins 5-253%enhanced_ml
HOU @ CHC1 - 22 - 3CHCCHCCHC wins 3-255%enhanced_ml
LAD @ MIL3 - 44 - 5MILMILMIL wins 5-451%enhanced_ml
MIN @ BOS1 - 22 - 3BOSBOSBOS wins 3-252%enhanced_ml
NYM @ MIA3 - 25 - 1NYMNYMNYM wins 5-158%enhanced_ml
OAK @ SD3 - 13 - 2OAKOAKOAK wins 3-256%enhanced_ml
PIT @ TOR3 - 22 - 1PITPITPIT wins 2-151%enhanced_ml
SEA @ KC4 - 54 - 5KCKCKC wins 5-451%enhanced_ml
STL @ CIN5 - 66 - 3CINSTLSTL wins 6-353%enhanced_ml
TB @ NYY2 - 14 - 0TBTBTB wins 4-053%enhanced_ml
TEX @ LAA5 - 23 - 1TEXTEXTEX wins 3-153%enhanced_ml
WAS @ ATL1 - 42 - 3ATLATLATL wins 3-253%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants

CHW 25-24 (4.45 RPG / 4.69 RA)
4 - 6
SF 20-30 (3.46 RPG / 4.5 RA)
WINNER: SF wins 6-4 TARGET: CHW 3 - 5 SF (SF) Confidence: 57.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CHW31000000048
SF01000230x610

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.312
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-62.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

SF Recent Form

Win%0.163
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-129.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CHW Season Quality

Record25-24
Win%0.510
Run Diff-12
RD/Game-0.245

SF Season Quality

Record20-30
Win%0.400
Run Diff-52
RD/Game-1.040

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9604; margin adjustment: -0.4034; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 289827 0.276 190.368 55311 00 0.600 0.263 0.308 0.386 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 4716941 0.243 17330.383 43000 11 0.000 0.256 0.395 0.502 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 4516639 0.235 11290.361 43110 10 0.333 0.230 0.331 0.487 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 4617238 0.221 13310.320 44213 00 0.500 0.198 0.276 0.422 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 4516946 0.272 3110.346 44000 01 0.000 0.219 0.303 0.329 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 3613133 0.252 3180.296 44000 01 0.000 0.240 0.291 0.405 OK
Edgar QueroC 237913 0.165 070.242 44110 01 0.250 0.183 0.251 0.235 OK
Tristan PetersCF 3510727 0.252 2110.316 44000 00 0.000 0.215 0.285 0.394 OK
Derek HillRF 11296 0.207 110.258 44100 01 0.250 0.194 0.246 0.304 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 44 25 0.229

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Willy AdamesSS 4919646 0.235 5150.272 44212 01 0.500 0.236 0.275 0.430 OK
Luis Arraez2B 4718559 0.319 2170.358 44111 00 0.250 0.271 0.325 0.421 OK
Casey SchmittLF 4115646 0.295 9220.339 44211 00 0.500 0.260 0.286 0.491 OK
Rafael Devers1B 5019147 0.246 6200.291 44000 02 0.000 0.229 0.275 0.404 OK
Matt Chapman3B 4818542 0.227 1160.302 44111 01 0.250 0.209 0.277 0.324 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 9315 0.161 120.212 44000 01 0.000 0.185 0.234 0.292 OK
Jesus RodriguezC 8286 0.214 140.267 44111 00 0.250 0.183 0.216 0.259 OK
Drew GilbertRF 258218 0.220 280.281 33100 00 0.333 0.179 0.234 0.298 OK
Harrison BaderCF 217913 0.165 490.193 33210 00 0.667 0.165 0.197 0.344 OK
TEAM TOTALS 343410 66 05 0.294

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Davis MartinStarter 955.31.63 0.9959.659 7.062205114 7.0 5 2
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 0.03330016 0.0 0 3
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.01110018 1.0 0 1

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trevor McDonaldStarter 318.32.46 1.0388.417 6.064425102 6.0 5 4
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 2018.32.95 1.31110.822 1.00000019 1.0 0 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 2220.42.21 0.8338.820 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 1410.05.40 1.90016.218 1.0100007 1.0 0 0
Joel PegueroMiddle Reliever 75.61.61 0.8933.22 0.01000013 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

SF wins 6-4


Cleveland Guardians @ Philadelphia Phillies

CLE 31-22 (4.32 RPG / 3.87 RA)
2 - 4
PHI 25-26 (4.1 RPG / 4.59 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 4-2 TARGET: CLE 2 - 3 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 53.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CLE00000100124
PHI00040000x49

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.462
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-77.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-120.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record30-22
Win%0.577
Run Diff23
RD/Game0.442

PHI Season Quality

Record25-25
Win%0.500
Run Diff-24
RD/Game-0.480

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0377; margin adjustment: -0.4358; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Angel MartínezRF 3915241 0.270 9250.315 44211 01 0.500 0.235 0.263 0.462 OK
José Ramírez3B 5219145 0.236 8240.361 44000 01 0.000 0.247 0.366 0.462 OK
Rhys Hoskins1B 3210220 0.196 4160.336 44000 02 0.000 0.203 0.341 0.400 OK
David FryDH 205814 0.241 380.353 44100 01 0.250 0.223 0.330 0.382 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 207120 0.282 290.407 43111 10 0.333 0.259 0.363 0.368 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 5016247 0.290 4270.376 44000 02 0.000 0.273 0.355 0.451 OK
Steven KwanLF 4717335 0.202 1110.330 44000 00 0.000 0.190 0.342 0.268 OK
Austin HedgesC 206115 0.246 140.319 32000 10 0.000 0.184 0.273 0.315 OK
Petey HalpinCF 4162 0.125 010.176 32000 00 0.000 0.166 0.216 0.237 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 22 27 0.129

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 4820148 0.239 5160.290 43000 10 0.000 0.227 0.283 0.362 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 4717841 0.230 20360.357 44000 01 0.000 0.222 0.332 0.579 OK
Bryce Harper1B 4918048 0.267 12310.359 44100 00 0.250 0.209 0.308 0.447 OK
Alec Bohm3B 4516737 0.222 5220.281 44210 02 0.500 0.243 0.298 0.422 OK
Brandon MarshLF 4216253 0.327 4220.349 44210 00 0.500 0.242 0.267 0.362 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 4717235 0.203 3130.278 44100 01 0.250 0.161 0.228 0.247 OK
Bryson Stott2B 3914432 0.222 5210.271 44100 00 0.250 0.209 0.258 0.419 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 3010422 0.212 180.284 44111 01 0.250 0.165 0.229 0.245 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 4013436 0.269 2110.342 32113 10 0.500 0.195 0.268 0.328 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35339 44 25 0.273

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gavin WilliamsStarter 1060.43.73 1.20910.973 6.184421112 6.1 1 4
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2323.22.72 1.16413.635 1.00000217 1.0 2 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever 2516.82.14 1.19020.939 0.21000213 0.2 2 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cristopher SánchezStarter 1063.41.85 1.21511.480 6.12111796 6.1 7 1
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 1312.21.48 1.06615.521 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 2119.54.15 1.23111.124 1.00001010 1.0 0 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 2313.77.88 2.48215.824 0.21110016 0.2 0 1

Game Summary

PHI wins 4-2


Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

COL 19-32 (4.14 RPG / 5.22 RA)
1 - 5
ARI 26-23 (4.55 RPG / 4.57 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 5-1 TARGET: COL 1 - 3 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 59.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
COL00000001017
ARI00500000x57

COL Recent Form

Win%0.122
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-177.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.388
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-58.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

COL Season Quality

Record19-31
Win%0.380
Run Diff-54
RD/Game-1.080

ARI Season Quality

Record25-23
Win%0.521
Run Diff-2
RD/Game-0.042

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.2496; margin adjustment: 0.5248; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyCF 3410530 0.286 2160.330 54100 12 0.250 0.251 0.287 0.424 OK
Troy JohnstonRF 3914246 0.324 2200.377 55100 00 0.200 0.265 0.316 0.395 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 4317140 0.234 11180.296 44111 00 0.250 0.198 0.247 0.353 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 4617247 0.273 5240.351 43100 10 0.333 0.238 0.313 0.373 OK
Willi Castro2B 3713233 0.250 2160.320 44000 01 0.000 0.224 0.296 0.356 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 4516334 0.209 1130.266 44000 03 0.000 0.202 0.260 0.308 OK
Edouard JulienDH 3411827 0.229 2120.316 43200 11 0.667 0.168 0.254 0.253 OK
Sterlin ThompsonLF 271 0.143 000.143 44000 00 0.000 0.179 0.190 0.259 OK
Kyle Karros3B 4313428 0.209 1110.316 43100 10 0.333 0.166 0.269 0.260 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 11 47 0.206

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 4418244 0.242 7220.294 44210 00 0.500 0.276 0.334 0.485 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 4616346 0.282 7260.390 44113 02 0.250 0.283 0.392 0.586 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 4615835 0.222 2150.344 43011 00 0.000 0.231 0.361 0.372 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 4515342 0.275 7250.351 44110 01 0.250 0.249 0.322 0.446 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 4016552 0.315 7290.335 44000 02 0.000 0.253 0.278 0.390 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 249120 0.220 190.280 33211 00 0.667 0.217 0.275 0.336 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 248922 0.247 2120.310 33000 01 0.000 0.245 0.311 0.386 OK
Adrian Del CastilloDH 279717 0.175 2140.236 33100 00 0.333 0.168 0.239 0.265 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 123911 0.282 060.364 32000 11 0.000 0.221 0.309 0.370 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32307 55 17 0.233

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tomoyuki SuganoStarter 945.64.14 1.2944.925 5.16551489 5.1 4 5
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1427.31.32 0.9168.626 1.1000014 1.1 1 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 2120.64.81 1.84512.729 0.0000000 0.0 0 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 2114.13.83 1.84413.421 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 2214.05.14 1.7869.014 0.10000013 0.1 0 0
Seth HalvorsenMiddle Reliever 88.02.25 1.7509.08 0.00000016 0.0 0 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael SorokaStarter 947.63.59 1.36610.455 6.140013104 6.1 3 0
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.03000122 1.0 1 0
Taylor ClarkeMiddle Reliever 10.1360.00 30.0000.00 0.20113120 0.2 1 1

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-1


Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles

DET 20-31 (3.84 RPG / 4.29 RA)
5 - 2
BAL 21-29 (4.3 RPG / 5.48 RA)
WINNER: DET wins 5-2 TARGET: DET 4 - 3 BAL (DET) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
DET22100000057
BAL02000000027

DET Recent Form

Win%0.235
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-119.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.163
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-176.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

DET Season Quality

Record20-31
Win%0.392
Run Diff-23
RD/Game-0.451

BAL Season Quality

Record21-29
Win%0.420
Run Diff-59
RD/Game-1.180

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6873; margin adjustment: -0.2886; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigleSS 4818152 0.287 2160.397 54111 11 0.250 0.238 0.351 0.359 OK
Dillon DinglerC 4115638 0.244 9280.322 54000 12 0.000 0.226 0.295 0.436 OK
Jahmai JonesDH 12316 0.194 130.306 55213 01 0.400 0.201 0.311 0.360 OK
Riley GreeneLF 5018059 0.328 4240.424 44210 01 0.500 0.270 0.361 0.407 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 4716232 0.198 7190.307 43000 11 0.000 0.181 0.277 0.342 OK
Wenceel PérezCF 279614 0.146 050.196 44110 00 0.250 0.169 0.218 0.226 OK
Zach McKinstryRF 248115 0.185 160.250 43000 12 0.000 0.190 0.253 0.263 OK
Gage Workman3B 5194 0.211 130.211 43000 11 0.000 0.183 0.193 0.375 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 17519 0.176 040.236 44111 00 0.250 0.174 0.232 0.297 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39347 55 59 0.206

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 4917545 0.257 2140.415 55100 00 0.200 0.226 0.382 0.379 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 4920946 0.220 10240.271 44000 00 0.000 0.240 0.285 0.405 OK
Adley RutschmanC 3112231 0.254 7240.308 44000 02 0.000 0.207 0.261 0.398 OK
Pete Alonso1B 5018943 0.228 9280.310 43210 11 0.667 0.233 0.305 0.416 OK
Samuel BasalloDH 3513135 0.267 7160.324 44100 02 0.250 0.236 0.293 0.442 OK
Leody TaverasCF 3110427 0.260 2180.364 44000 02 0.000 0.213 0.305 0.342 OK
Colton CowserRF 257513 0.173 170.259 43100 10 0.333 0.184 0.265 0.293 OK
Coby Mayo3B 3812523 0.184 5170.261 44212 01 0.500 0.186 0.259 0.333 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 120 0.000 000.000 43000 10 0.000 0.175 0.188 0.273
TEAM TOTALS 37347 22 38 0.206

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack FlahertyStarter 1041.86.03 1.67510.348 4.15221388 4.1 3 2
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 1512.42.18 0.96813.819 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2120.80.87 1.4426.515 1.01002111 1.0 1 0
Will VestMiddle Reliever 1511.86.86 1.61011.415 1.21000224 1.2 2 0
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 2219.55.54 1.8468.318 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Keegan AkinStarter 107.515.60 2.2679.68 3.04442358 3.0 3 4
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2318.80.96 0.63812.025 0.20000012 0.2 0 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 2120.14.48 1.19411.626 1.00000218 1.0 2 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 2215.21.78 0.6587.713 1.01001120 1.0 1 0
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 106.712.09 2.53710.78 1.01111120 1.0 1 1
Tyler WellsMiddle Reliever 1720.73.48 1.3539.121 1.11001124 1.1 1 0
Albert SuárezReliever 615.23.55 1.3165.39 1.00000121 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

DET wins 5-2


Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs

HOU 21-31 (4.27 RPG / 5.31 RA)
2 - 3
CHC 29-22 (4.86 RPG / 4.35 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 3-2 TARGET: HOU 1 - 2 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 54.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
HOU10000010026
CHC00100002x37

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.412
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-175.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.140
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-136.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

HOU Season Quality

Record20-31
Win%0.392
Run Diff-56
RD/Game-1.098

CHC Season Quality

Record29-21
Win%0.580
Run Diff28
RD/Game0.560

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.9398; margin adjustment: 0.8147; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 135414 0.259 010.305 44100 01 0.250 0.227 0.268 0.341 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 4416240 0.247 5200.337 43000 10 0.000 0.215 0.280 0.381 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 5118556 0.303 15310.412 43111 11 0.333 0.229 0.336 0.455 OK
Christian Walker1B 5018347 0.257 11310.328 44100 00 0.250 0.206 0.267 0.397 OK
Jake MeyersCF 124410 0.227 140.300 44000 00 0.000 0.209 0.272 0.340 OK
Braden Shewmake2B 145214 0.269 260.269 44211 00 0.500 0.208 0.215 0.332 OK
Cam SmithRF 4515531 0.200 3150.298 43000 12 0.000 0.186 0.272 0.274 OK
Zach ColeLF 12407 0.175 240.195 44100 01 0.250 0.168 0.177 0.296 OK
Christian VázquezC 258021 0.262 3140.337 44000 02 0.000 0.187 0.272 0.311 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 22 37 0.182

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 4819651 0.260 4300.345 55210 00 0.400 0.237 0.326 0.351 OK
Michael Busch1B 4817540 0.229 4260.357 43000 11 0.000 0.228 0.355 0.409 OK
Alex Bregman3B 4819547 0.241 4150.326 44100 01 0.250 0.233 0.309 0.339 OK
Ian HappLF 4817738 0.215 10200.353 44100 00 0.250 0.176 0.309 0.331 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 3412935 0.271 7180.371 43111 11 0.333 0.225 0.316 0.350 OK
Michael ConfortoDH 154615 0.326 280.456 42000 20 0.000 0.247 0.381 0.490 OK
Carson KellyC 3111433 0.289 1130.367 43100 10 0.333 0.251 0.324 0.352 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 4918041 0.228 5200.305 44000 01 0.000 0.175 0.238 0.312 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 4716130 0.186 7250.291 43112 10 0.333 0.172 0.269 0.315 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37317 33 64 0.226

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer ArrighettiStarter 635.31.53 1.2188.935 6.041154108 6.0 4 1
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 1818.23.46 1.5938.417 1.21000024 1.2 0 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 1713.78.54 2.33613.821 0.12221018 0.1 0 2

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jameson TaillonStarter 949.55.09 1.2327.642 5.24111592 5.2 5 1
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 118.52.12 1.64711.611 0.22110215 0.2 2 1
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 117.82.31 1.28212.711 1.20002028 1.2 0 0
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 2118.13.48 1.65711.423 1.00000019 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 3-2


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers

LAD 31-19 (5.14 RPG / 3.18 RA)
4 - 5
MIL 29-18 (5.04 RPG / 3.45 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 5-4 TARGET: LAD 3 - 4 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAD02000020047
MIL00000302x57

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.286
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-60.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.413
Avg Runs1.6
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-50.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAD Season Quality

Record31-19
Win%0.620
Run Diff98
RD/Game1.960

MIL Season Quality

Record29-18
Win%0.617
Run Diff75
RD/Game1.596

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3687; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 4517347 0.272 8260.399 44110 02 0.250 0.268 0.388 0.483 OK
Mookie BettsSS 156212 0.194 490.254 44000 01 0.000 0.207 0.258 0.383 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 4718248 0.264 6230.343 44000 03 0.000 0.225 0.313 0.442 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 4717444 0.253 4230.356 44110 02 0.250 0.226 0.339 0.360 OK
Andy PagesCF 4918353 0.290 10420.338 44313 00 0.750 0.207 0.259 0.348 OK
Max Muncy3B 4615942 0.264 12190.368 44100 00 0.250 0.213 0.324 0.395 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 4516243 0.265 6250.339 44000 01 0.000 0.236 0.307 0.403 OK
Dalton RushingC 206919 0.275 7160.359 33111 01 0.333 0.190 0.257 0.349 OK
Hyeseong Kim2B 3310127 0.267 1100.336 33000 02 0.000 0.203 0.282 0.281 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34347 44 012 0.206

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioCF 146318 0.286 150.328 44210 01 0.500 0.223 0.270 0.369 OK
Brice Turang2B 4416548 0.291 7290.413 44111 01 0.250 0.247 0.373 0.434 OK
William ContrerasC 4417953 0.296 3270.368 44214 01 0.500 0.261 0.334 0.352 OK
Christian YelichDH 187219 0.264 290.321 44000 01 0.000 0.212 0.271 0.401 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 103411 0.324 160.439 44110 01 0.250 0.256 0.347 0.410 OK
Jake BauersLF 3714142 0.298 7280.369 33110 00 0.333 0.267 0.337 0.452 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 3312426 0.210 0140.272 33000 00 0.000 0.192 0.248 0.277 OK
Sal FrelickRF 4014832 0.216 3130.284 33000 01 0.000 0.183 0.240 0.264 OK
Joey OrtizSS 319820 0.204 1110.292 32000 10 0.000 0.183 0.286 0.265 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32317 55 16 0.226

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Justin WrobleskiStarter 850.22.51 1.0364.827 6.23331697 6.2 6 3
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 2118.51.46 0.6499.720 1.11000011 1.1 0 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 2114.93.02 1.07413.923 0.03220014 0.0 0 2

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan HendersonStarter 418.03.50 1.05611.523 4.23220772 4.2 7 2
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 2016.74.85 1.25710.219 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 1717.03.18 1.05911.622 1.02220119 1.0 1 2
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 2226.43.07 1.62915.746 1.10000024 1.1 0 0
DL HallMiddle Reliever 2020.31.77 1.33011.526 1.02000222 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-4


Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox

MIN 23-27 (4.6 RPG / 4.62 RA)
2 - 3
BOS 22-27 (3.69 RPG / 3.92 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 3-2 TARGET: MIN 1 - 2 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 52.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIN01000010024
BOS01000000237

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.245
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-109.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.204
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-117.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIN Season Quality

Record23-27
Win%0.460
Run Diff-1
RD/Game-0.020

BOS Season Quality

Record22-27
Win%0.449
Run Diff-11
RD/Game-0.224

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.221; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonDH 4217746 0.260 15230.320 44000 01 0.000 0.235 0.292 0.523 OK
Brooks Lee3B 4416440 0.244 5220.295 44000 02 0.000 0.211 0.257 0.335 OK
Austin MartinCF 3311634 0.293 1100.411 44000 01 0.000 0.226 0.332 0.319 OK
Josh Bell1B 4517139 0.228 5280.293 44000 01 0.000 0.238 0.294 0.405 OK
Gabriel GonzalezLF 000 0.000 000.000 44211 00 0.500 0.249 0.321 0.395
Ryan KreidlerSS 9278 0.296 370.406 44000 02 0.000 0.256 0.364 0.453 OK
Kody ClemensRF 3311629 0.250 4120.346 43100 10 0.333 0.240 0.305 0.413 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 4617039 0.229 1170.311 32111 11 0.500 0.197 0.275 0.293 OK
Alex JacksonC 000 0.000 000.000 32000 11 0.000 0.231 0.294 0.376
TEAM TOTALS 34314 22 39 0.129

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 4217234 0.198 6240.268 44000 01 0.000 0.210 0.279 0.422 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 4215343 0.281 3150.349 44100 01 0.250 0.257 0.304 0.411 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 4818554 0.292 6190.359 44000 01 0.000 0.234 0.297 0.346 OK
Willson Contreras1B 4616745 0.269 10300.365 42110 21 0.500 0.255 0.324 0.475 OK
Andruw MonasterioDH 186816 0.235 170.288 44100 01 0.250 0.203 0.252 0.336 OK
Nick SogardSS 4144 0.286 020.375 42000 20 0.000 0.212 0.302 0.346 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 3712326 0.211 290.285 44210 01 0.500 0.186 0.252 0.302 OK
Carlos NarváezC 309421 0.223 230.298 44213 00 0.500 0.196 0.266 0.311 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 4214124 0.170 1140.250 33000 02 0.000 0.154 0.207 0.250 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35317 33 48 0.226

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Connor PrielippStarter 525.02.88 0.96010.429 5.04112687 5.0 6 1
Luis GarcíaMiddle Reliever 88.26.59 1.4632.22 0.21000117 0.2 1 0
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 1914.73.06 1.7698.614 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 1919.34.20 1.6068.418 1.12221024 1.1 0 2

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Payton TolleStarter 530.22.09 0.7958.930 6.02112793 6.0 7 1
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1817.20.52 0.87212.023 1.02111023 1.0 0 1
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 1919.12.83 1.04711.324 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 97.30.00 0.82213.611 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 3-2


New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

NYM 22-29 (4.02 RPG / 4.29 RA)
5 - 1
MIA 23-29 (4.29 RPG / 4.63 RA)
WINNER: NYM wins 5-1 TARGET: NYM 3 - 2 MIA (NYM) Confidence: 58.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYM10200000259
MIA00001000017

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.438
Avg Runs1.6
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-83.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.306
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-123.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record22-28
Win%0.440
Run Diff-13
RD/Game-0.260

MIA Season Quality

Record22-29
Win%0.431
Run Diff-19
RD/Game-0.373

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1255; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 4215842 0.266 3170.322 55212 00 0.400 0.266 0.313 0.365 OK
Bo BichetteSS 5020446 0.225 5270.276 55000 00 0.000 0.234 0.286 0.407 OK
Juan SotoDH 3412937 0.287 9200.384 44210 00 0.500 0.263 0.362 0.519 OK
Mark Vientos1B 3914533 0.228 6220.266 44213 01 0.500 0.217 0.250 0.365 OK
Brett Baty3B 4014336 0.252 3200.312 43210 10 0.667 0.237 0.297 0.382 OK
Marcus Semien2B 5018241 0.225 3180.276 44000 01 0.000 0.208 0.256 0.302 OK
A.J. EwingCF 9288 0.286 140.444 44000 00 0.000 0.239 0.391 0.375 OK
Nick MorabitoLF 130 0.000 000.250 44110 00 0.250 0.184 0.196 0.276
Luis TorrensC 196111 0.180 050.219 43000 12 0.000 0.174 0.203 0.280 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38369 55 24 0.250

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 5018959 0.312 6190.393 54111 10 0.250 0.258 0.335 0.450 OK
Liam Hicks1B 4014742 0.286 9420.347 44000 00 0.000 0.226 0.281 0.361 OK
Connor Norby3B 4314532 0.221 4140.325 43100 01 0.333 0.199 0.286 0.329 OK
Kyle StowersDH 2710023 0.230 380.330 44100 01 0.250 0.218 0.308 0.396 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 4617335 0.202 3130.329 44000 02 0.000 0.231 0.340 0.396 OK
Esteury RuizLF 9284 0.143 240.167 44100 00 0.250 0.161 0.197 0.285 OK
Owen CaissieRF 3510823 0.213 3180.270 43000 11 0.000 0.212 0.270 0.376 OK
Joe MackC 13427 0.167 060.222 44200 00 0.500 0.167 0.225 0.263 OK
Javier SanojaSS 279423 0.245 1150.297 44100 00 0.250 0.177 0.232 0.315 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 11 25 0.206

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tobias MyersStarter 1626.93.68 1.1157.723 5.07112492 5.0 4 1
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 1815.53.48 1.29014.525 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 2019.73.65 1.21810.122 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 2116.31.66 1.28812.723 1.2000005 1.2 0 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eury PérezStarter 1052.15.36 1.42010.058 5.17220190 5.1 1 2
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 1210.39.61 1.55314.917 1.00110119 1.0 1 1
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 2017.04.76 1.88211.121 1.00000119 1.0 1 0
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 2015.54.65 1.29011.620 1.22222122 1.2 1 2

Game Summary

NYM wins 5-1


Oakland Athletics @ San Diego Padres

OAK 26-24 (4.48 RPG / 4.56 RA)
3 - 2
SD 29-20 (4.08 RPG / 4.02 RA)
WINNER: OAK wins 3-2 TARGET: OAK 3 - 1 SD (OAK) Confidence: 55.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
OAK00000030038
SD01001000026

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.265
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-112.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

SD Recent Form

Win%0.224
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-119.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record25-24
Win%0.510
Run Diff-5
RD/Game-0.102

SD Season Quality

Record29-20
Win%0.592
Run Diff3
RD/Game0.061

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2857; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CortesRF 3110435 0.337 4160.412 55100 00 0.200 0.270 0.357 0.423 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 4917649 0.278 8360.438 44210 01 0.500 0.267 0.426 0.463 OK
Shea LangeliersC 4518459 0.321 12270.394 44000 00 0.000 0.238 0.322 0.414 OK
Brent RookerDH 3312827 0.211 7240.295 44100 02 0.250 0.211 0.289 0.362 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 4617735 0.198 5230.281 43000 12 0.000 0.186 0.264 0.330 OK
Zack Gelof3B 2710024 0.240 6170.290 43000 10 0.000 0.207 0.248 0.375 OK
Henry BolteCF 7267 0.269 020.310 44311 01 0.750 0.205 0.259 0.301 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 4114541 0.283 2150.346 44000 00 0.000 0.209 0.275 0.337 OK
Darell HernaizSS 257820 0.256 170.348 44112 01 0.250 0.213 0.296 0.281 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 33 27 0.229

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 4718043 0.239 0140.314 44200 02 0.500 0.219 0.297 0.282 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 3613640 0.294 5170.319 44100 00 0.250 0.249 0.274 0.496 OK
Gavin Sheets1B 3812631 0.246 7170.336 44000 02 0.000 0.263 0.365 0.572 OK
Manny Machado3B 4716930 0.178 7220.272 44000 01 0.000 0.172 0.264 0.319 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 4717342 0.243 6210.314 42111 21 0.500 0.198 0.268 0.288 OK
Ramón LaureanoLF 4115334 0.222 5190.301 44000 01 0.000 0.199 0.276 0.320 OK
Nick CastellanosRF 269118 0.198 2160.229 44000 00 0.000 0.203 0.235 0.345 OK
Bryce JohnsonCF 7224 0.182 020.280 43000 11 0.000 0.187 0.277 0.325 OK
Rodolfo DuránC 5141 0.071 120.133 44211 01 0.500 0.169 0.225 0.296 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 22 39 0.182

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jeffrey SpringsStarter 1054.33.98 1.2157.847 5.15221597 5.1 5 2
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 2618.43.91 2.17412.726 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 1915.42.92 1.2995.810 1.01000117 1.0 1 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 2220.31.77 0.7889.321 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Justin SternerMiddle Reliever 2419.74.57 1.52311.024 0.20000112 0.2 1 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walker BuehlerStarter 939.75.21 1.4118.437 4.25220684 4.2 6 2
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 2221.50.84 0.88418.845 2.12111039 2.1 0 1
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 1714.51.24 1.0344.37 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 2120.55.71 1.41512.729 1.01000019 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

OAK wins 3-2


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Toronto Blue Jays

PIT 26-24 (4.96 RPG / 4.44 RA)
2 - 1
TOR 23-27 (4.04 RPG / 4.24 RA)
WINNER: PIT wins 2-1 TARGET: PIT 3 - 2 TOR (PIT) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PIT00002000024
TOR00100000014

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.245
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-102.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.245
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-87.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record26-24
Win%0.520
Run Diff26
RD/Game0.520

TOR Season Quality

Record23-27
Win%0.460
Run Diff-10
RD/Game-0.200

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.81; margin adjustment: -0.3402; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzDH 4720152 0.259 10330.326 44112 01 0.250 0.221 0.287 0.371 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 4317044 0.259 13320.352 44100 01 0.250 0.233 0.320 0.477 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 4015751 0.325 0210.382 43000 10 0.000 0.268 0.324 0.344 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 3812835 0.273 3180.387 44000 01 0.000 0.253 0.361 0.416 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 4216145 0.280 3190.335 44100 01 0.250 0.259 0.301 0.393 OK
Jhostynxon GarciaCF 293 0.333 010.333 44000 00 0.000 0.207 0.216 0.284 OK
Endy RodríguezC 3104 0.400 020.571 43000 10 0.000 0.241 0.434 0.403 OK
Esmerlyn ValdezRF 000 0.000 000.000 43000 01 0.000 0.246 0.316 0.399
Jake MangumLF 197520 0.267 030.321 32110 10 0.500 0.196 0.256 0.257 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 22 35 0.129

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 3011823 0.195 490.275 43000 01 0.000 0.202 0.270 0.363 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 4917951 0.285 3220.376 44100 00 0.250 0.244 0.338 0.367 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 4416645 0.271 5160.339 44100 02 0.250 0.267 0.325 0.434 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 4817939 0.218 10270.302 44111 01 0.250 0.176 0.260 0.303 OK
Yohendrick PinangoLF 155015 0.300 160.340 44000 00 0.000 0.228 0.270 0.335 OK
Ernie Clement2B 4718755 0.294 3160.318 33000 01 0.000 0.248 0.281 0.425 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 3612435 0.282 5180.321 33100 00 0.333 0.256 0.298 0.375 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 247619 0.250 4100.321 33000 02 0.000 0.215 0.287 0.327 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 4215238 0.250 5270.284 33000 00 0.000 0.186 0.224 0.326 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32314 11 07 0.129

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bubba ChandlerStarter 941.35.23 1.5507.836 4.14110583 4.1 5 1
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2322.42.41 0.84811.729 2.0000016 2.0 1 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 2119.43.71 1.2376.013 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 1916.23.33 1.42014.426 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kevin GausmanStarter 1055.73.55 1.0778.653 5.23221592 5.2 5 2
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 2423.10.78 1.29914.437 1.01001017 1.0 0 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 2421.71.66 1.1526.215 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 2419.95.88 1.85916.737 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 2-1


Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals

SEA 24-27 (4.12 RPG / 3.9 RA)
4 - 5
KC 20-30 (3.88 RPG / 4.48 RA)
WINNER: KC wins 5-4 TARGET: SEA 4 - 5 KC (KC) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SEA000000301410
KC00000401x57

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.294
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-107.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

KC Recent Form

Win%0.140
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-137.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

SEA Season Quality

Record24-27
Win%0.471
Run Diff11
RD/Game0.216

KC Season Quality

Record20-30
Win%0.400
Run Diff-30
RD/Game-0.600

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9216; margin adjustment: -0.3871; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 4014130 0.213 6160.362 55213 01 0.400 0.219 0.339 0.381 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 5120352 0.256 8210.320 55111 01 0.200 0.232 0.290 0.403 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 5118255 0.302 5210.393 54110 11 0.250 0.275 0.351 0.479 OK
Rob RefsnyderDH 13404 0.100 120.159 44100 02 0.250 0.180 0.236 0.274 OK
Patrick Wisdom1B 271 0.143 020.143 44100 01 0.250 0.207 0.218 0.413 OK
Cole Young2B 5117743 0.243 3260.325 44100 00 0.250 0.203 0.275 0.314 OK
Mitch GarverC 16488 0.167 130.355 44210 01 0.500 0.187 0.361 0.290 OK
Victor RoblesRF 4133 0.231 010.231 44100 01 0.250 0.201 0.212 0.340 OK
Colt Emerson3B 4111 0.091 130.286 43000 11 0.000 0.178 0.293 0.314 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393710 44 29 0.270

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 4719149 0.257 3180.318 44000 01 0.000 0.205 0.266 0.321 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 5019759 0.299 7230.369 43210 10 0.667 0.238 0.312 0.398 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 4617434 0.195 5220.280 44110 01 0.250 0.179 0.266 0.281 OK
Salvador PerezC 4818539 0.211 8210.259 44111 01 0.250 0.214 0.260 0.397 OK
Carter JensenDH 4013531 0.230 6190.325 43314 10 1.000 0.205 0.300 0.330 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 3913935 0.252 480.320 44000 02 0.000 0.227 0.283 0.395 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 3913228 0.212 3150.329 44000 03 0.000 0.173 0.275 0.263 OK
Michael Massey2B 288720 0.230 3120.242 33000 00 0.000 0.187 0.207 0.361 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 3812133 0.273 3100.328 32010 11 0.000 0.204 0.246 0.329 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34317 55 39 0.226

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan GilbertStarter 1055.54.54 1.1719.257 5.254427106 5.2 7 4
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 2017.55.14 1.42916.532 1.11001027 1.1 0 0
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 2421.12.13 1.3749.422 1.01110216 1.0 2 1

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Noah CameronStarter 840.55.56 1.5568.036 5.06331585 5.0 5 3
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 2018.43.42 1.5228.317 1.01000017 1.0 0 0
Nick MearsMiddle Reliever 1915.83.42 1.4568.014 1.02111022 1.0 0 1
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 2018.91.90 1.00512.426 1.01000120 1.0 1 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever 2116.33.87 1.7186.111 1.00000316 1.0 3 0

Game Summary

KC wins 5-4


St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

STL 28-21 (4.47 RPG / 4.57 RA)
6 - 3
CIN 26-24 (4.42 RPG / 4.98 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 6-3 TARGET: STL 5 - 6 CIN (CIN) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
STL10400000169
CIN10001010037

STL Recent Form

Win%0.163
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-118.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.320
Avg Runs1.7
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-128.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

STL Season Quality

Record28-21
Win%0.571
Run Diff-5
RD/Game-0.102

CIN Season Quality

Record26-24
Win%0.520
Run Diff-28
RD/Game-0.560

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5351; margin adjustment: -0.2247; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Victor Scott IICF 4111722 0.188 270.244 54112 01 0.250 0.214 0.261 0.323 OK
Masyn WinnSS 4215939 0.245 1170.320 54110 10 0.250 0.209 0.279 0.320 OK
JJ WetherholtSS 4718244 0.242 9240.361 44211 00 0.500 0.224 0.316 0.379 OK
Alec Burleson1B 4618454 0.293 7340.359 43000 10 0.000 0.277 0.337 0.454 OK
Pedro PagésC 3110523 0.219 490.265 44313 00 0.750 0.213 0.252 0.348 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 4215234 0.224 5240.309 44000 02 0.000 0.210 0.308 0.336 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 4718154 0.298 13350.369 44000 01 0.000 0.232 0.296 0.428 OK
José FermínLF 12408 0.200 140.233 44110 00 0.250 0.187 0.229 0.293 OK
Iván HerreraDH 4918348 0.262 6240.386 44110 01 0.250 0.207 0.302 0.386 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38359 66 25 0.257

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
TJ FriedlCF 3814326 0.182 280.262 55100 02 0.200 0.167 0.229 0.254 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 5020058 0.290 11320.356 55212 02 0.400 0.247 0.316 0.455 OK
Matt McLain2B 4617637 0.210 5200.308 44111 01 0.250 0.190 0.277 0.327 OK
Spencer SteerLF 4717146 0.269 7180.337 44000 02 0.000 0.254 0.311 0.400 OK
Tyler StephensonC 3511620 0.172 3130.279 43000 10 0.000 0.180 0.290 0.298 OK
Sal Stewart1B 5018950 0.265 12340.353 42100 20 0.500 0.262 0.357 0.473 OK
Will BensonRF 24659 0.138 130.263 44210 00 0.500 0.163 0.271 0.263 OK
JJ BledayLF 227723 0.299 6200.402 44000 02 0.000 0.216 0.326 0.437 OK
Nathaniel LoweDH 279526 0.274 6190.349 43000 01 0.000 0.211 0.289 0.395 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 33 310 0.206

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle LeahyStarter 945.23.98 1.5716.834 5.06222398 5.0 3 2
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2321.63.33 1.06510.425 1.00001118 1.0 1 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2319.03.79 1.4749.921 1.01110318 1.0 3 1
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 2217.44.14 1.4378.817 1.00000017 1.0 0 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 2316.57.64 2.30314.727 1.00000315 1.0 3 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris PaddackStarter 15.03.60 1.4005.43 4.06551283 4.0 2 5
Graham AshcraftMiddle Reliever 2322.72.38 1.23310.727 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 2018.33.44 1.2579.820 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Pierce JohnsonMiddle Reliever 2215.64.62 1.66711.019 1.01001211 1.0 2 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 2418.74.33 1.81812.025 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 77.16.34 0.8458.97 0.20000015 0.2 0 0
Connor PhillipsReliever 2323.45.00 1.79510.427 0.1111002 0.1 0 1

Game Summary

STL wins 6-3


Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

TB 34-15 (4.82 RPG / 3.96 RA)
4 - 0
NYY 30-22 (4.85 RPG / 3.6 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 4-0 TARGET: TB 2 - 1 NYY (TB) Confidence: 53.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TB00031000049
NYY00000000007

TB Recent Form

Win%0.333
Avg Runs1.6
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-53.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-65.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TB Season Quality

Record33-15
Win%0.688
Run Diff40
RD/Game0.833

NYY Season Quality

Record30-21
Win%0.588
Run Diff67
RD/Game1.314

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3315; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 4417849 0.275 080.311 55100 02 0.200 0.219 0.265 0.294 OK
Junior Caminero3B 4718249 0.269 13270.359 44000 01 0.000 0.270 0.366 0.497 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 4516744 0.263 8370.366 44100 02 0.250 0.223 0.328 0.369 OK
Yandy DíazDH 4517455 0.316 8330.394 43110 10 0.333 0.280 0.341 0.516 OK
Richie Palacios2B 257318 0.247 1100.364 44111 02 0.250 0.239 0.338 0.340 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 3814024 0.171 3140.235 44000 00 0.000 0.217 0.271 0.328 OK
Jonny DeLucaRF 269926 0.263 1120.298 44100 00 0.250 0.222 0.258 0.346 OK
Nick FortesC 289827 0.276 170.297 44211 00 0.500 0.218 0.233 0.309 OK
Taylor WallsSS 3611124 0.216 0140.320 44212 00 0.500 0.196 0.296 0.339 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37369 44 17 0.250

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 4014524 0.166 4220.297 43000 02 0.000 0.174 0.301 0.300 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 5118446 0.250 16300.381 44200 01 0.500 0.199 0.322 0.379 OK
Ben RiceDH 4215945 0.283 15310.382 43100 11 0.333 0.226 0.313 0.500 OK
Cody BellingerLF 4917747 0.266 6300.379 44100 00 0.250 0.229 0.359 0.432 OK
Paul Goldschmidt1B 197019 0.271 5120.362 44200 01 0.500 0.238 0.312 0.497 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 4717743 0.243 5180.322 44000 01 0.000 0.238 0.316 0.376 OK
José CaballeroSS 3913435 0.261 4130.322 44000 01 0.000 0.222 0.273 0.353 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 3511820 0.169 3120.216 44100 00 0.250 0.156 0.198 0.271 OK
Austin WellsC 3611219 0.170 350.288 44000 01 0.000 0.149 0.259 0.217 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 00 18 0.206

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick MartinezStarter 952.51.54 1.0676.035 6.170006105 6.1 6 0
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 2219.42.78 1.08211.124 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 2120.63.50 1.16511.827 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 2219.62.76 0.8677.817 0.20000013 0.2 0 0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gerrit ColeStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 3.09441471 3.0 4 4
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2119.65.51 1.73511.525 2.10000029 2.1 0 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 2314.43.12 1.87517.528 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2315.71.72 1.0834.68 1.20000021 1.2 0 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 2521.02.57 1.47612.429 1.00000118 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

TB wins 4-0


Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

TEX 24-25 (3.92 RPG / 3.65 RA)
3 - 1
LAA 17-34 (3.94 RPG / 5.29 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 3-1 TARGET: TEX 5 - 2 LAA (TEX) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TEX00011001035
LAA00000000114

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.265
Avg Runs1.2
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-96.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.137
Avg Runs0.7
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-184.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

TEX Season Quality

Record24-25
Win%0.490
Run Diff13
RD/Game0.265

LAA Season Quality

Record17-33
Win%0.340
Run Diff-68
RD/Game-1.360

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.85; margin adjustment: -0.777; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 359719 0.196 280.319 54100 12 0.250 0.216 0.344 0.357 OK
Josh Jung3B 4517454 0.310 5210.366 55100 00 0.200 0.265 0.327 0.407 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 4718350 0.273 5160.353 54211 00 0.500 0.242 0.308 0.403 OK
Ezequiel DuranSS 3512336 0.293 4210.353 43000 01 0.000 0.274 0.331 0.479 OK
Jake Burger1B 4617943 0.240 8300.286 42000 21 0.000 0.254 0.306 0.455 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 174610 0.217 050.390 43000 11 0.000 0.220 0.329 0.292 OK
Justin Foscue2B 82910 0.345 250.375 43011 10 0.000 0.264 0.314 0.484 OK
Evan CarterCF 4213624 0.176 5130.294 43111 10 0.333 0.172 0.283 0.286 OK
Danny JansenC 299518 0.189 290.300 44000 01 0.000 0.169 0.259 0.305 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39315 33 66 0.161

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 5120043 0.215 8220.325 44100 03 0.250 0.178 0.273 0.349 OK
Mike TroutCF 5017641 0.233 12250.400 44000 02 0.000 0.200 0.361 0.390 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 4618246 0.253 4220.307 44200 02 0.500 0.215 0.266 0.355 OK
Jorge SolerDH 4616936 0.213 9300.303 44000 01 0.000 0.186 0.260 0.361 OK
Jo AdellRF 5119650 0.255 7280.299 33000 00 0.000 0.190 0.220 0.327 OK
Wade MecklerLF 000 0.000 000.000 33000 01 0.000 0.233 0.305 0.373
Oswald Peraza2B 3211329 0.257 5110.328 33000 00 0.000 0.198 0.241 0.330 OK
Logan O'HoppeC 299619 0.198 180.304 33000 01 0.000 0.168 0.252 0.239 OK
Donovan Walton3B 000 0.000 000.000 33111 02 0.333 0.217 0.286 0.349
TEAM TOTALS 31314 11 012 0.129

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob deGromStarter 949.53.09 0.92911.161 6.010001289 6.0 12 0
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 1822.50.80 0.4448.421 2.00000023 2.0 0 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1820.31.77 0.7394.09 1.03110022 1.0 0 1

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Grayson RodriguezStarter 13.219.69 3.43811.24 3.12114279 3.1 2 1
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 1821.05.14 1.38112.429 1.12110017 1.1 0 1
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 1720.53.07 1.12211.025 1.10000018 1.1 0 0
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 64.46.14 1.59116.48 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
José FerminMiddle Reliever 118.74.14 1.49410.310 1.0111226 1.0 2 1
Brent SuterMiddle Reliever 1823.94.90 1.4649.024 1.00000119 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 3-1


Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

WAS 25-26 (5.49 RPG / 5.8 RA)
2 - 3
ATL 35-16 (5.41 RPG / 3.37 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 3-2 TARGET: WAS 1 - 4 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
WAS000101000026
ATL020000000137

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.294
Avg Runs1.6
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-143.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.294
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-73.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

WAS Season Quality

Record25-26
Win%0.490
Run Diff-16
RD/Game-0.314

ATL Season Quality

Record35-16
Win%0.686
Run Diff104
RD/Game2.039

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.6471; margin adjustment: 1.1118; applied: True

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodDH 5119750 0.254 13340.390 54111 12 0.250 0.242 0.358 0.453 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 3613234 0.258 3210.288 55100 01 0.200 0.222 0.255 0.393 OK
Curtis Mead3B 207319 0.260 3110.372 54000 11 0.000 0.220 0.322 0.376 OK
CJ AbramsSS 4918154 0.298 10420.393 44200 00 0.500 0.246 0.330 0.443 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 3112 0.182 000.250 44111 00 0.250 0.194 0.258 0.273 OK
Daylen LileLF 5020154 0.269 7260.324 44000 02 0.000 0.221 0.276 0.388 OK
Jacob YoungCF 4316136 0.224 6220.273 44000 01 0.000 0.203 0.247 0.400 OK
Drew MillasC 247413 0.176 160.265 43100 11 0.333 0.169 0.252 0.270 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 4313927 0.194 0150.307 44000 00 0.000 0.153 0.267 0.200 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39366 22 38 0.167

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 3713836 0.261 2110.370 54100 02 0.250 0.276 0.376 0.407 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 4717645 0.256 3260.311 55000 02 0.000 0.245 0.293 0.387 OK
Matt Olson1B 5119754 0.274 14420.353 54111 12 0.250 0.237 0.323 0.435 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 5119654 0.276 8270.333 54210 00 0.500 0.237 0.297 0.356 OK
Michael Harris IICF 4216347 0.288 10250.312 55212 00 0.400 0.248 0.274 0.470 OK
Austin Riley3B 5019040 0.211 8310.281 44100 00 0.250 0.198 0.254 0.398 OK
Dominic SmithDH 258933 0.371 5210.394 43000 11 0.000 0.290 0.315 0.493 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 8263 0.115 010.233 44000 01 0.000 0.175 0.280 0.241 OK
Sandy LeónC 5142 0.143 000.143 44000 01 0.000 0.192 0.204 0.281 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41377 33 29 0.189

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Richard LoveladyStarter 1311.02.45 2.00011.514 4.04221666 4.0 6 2
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 1915.44.68 1.75310.518 1.11000120 1.1 1 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1529.23.39 1.1998.026 2.01000033 2.0 0 0
Mitchell ParkerMiddle Reliever 1022.34.84 1.0767.719 1.20001135 1.2 1 0
Clayton BeeterReliever 1110.43.46 1.3469.511 1.01110118 1.0 1 1

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryce ElderStarter 1060.82.07 1.0208.356 6.262206102 6.2 6 2
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1414.20.00 0.77511.418 1.10002024 1.1 0 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 2120.40.44 0.8828.820 1.00001118 1.0 1 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 2421.00.86 0.61912.429 1.00000115 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 3-2 (Extra Innings - 10)