| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ MIA | 3 - 1 | 3 - 2 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 3-2 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| CLE @ DET | 3 - 2 | 5 - 0 | CLE | CLE | CLE wins 5-0 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| COL @ ARI | 2 - 4 | 3 - 5 | ARI | ARI | ARI wins 5-3 | 60% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| NYM @ WAS | 4 - 3 | 5 - 2 | NYM | NYM | NYM wins 5-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| OAK @ LAA | 2 - 3 | 1 - 3 | LAA | LAA | LAA wins 3-1 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| PIT @ STL | 2 - 1 | 4 - 3 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 4-3 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| TOR @ NYY | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 4-2 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
Quality edge: -2.58; margin adjustment: -1.0836; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 159 | 612 | 153 | 0.250 | 10 | 44 | 0.363 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.265 | 0.386 | 0.413 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 167 | 640 | 186 | 0.291 | 34 | 101 | 0.313 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.298 | 0.321 | 0.525 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 215 | 830 | 242 | 0.292 | 63 | 189 | 0.376 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.320 | 0.425 | 0.600 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 211 | 819 | 229 | 0.280 | 34 | 120 | 0.337 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.359 | 0.406 | OK |
| Dominic Smith | DH | 101 | 332 | 118 | 0.355 | 16 | 71 | 0.382 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.312 | 0.481 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 206 | 791 | 173 | 0.219 | 31 | 129 | 0.290 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.264 | 0.375 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 144 | 477 | 98 | 0.205 | 6 | 37 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.198 | 0.292 | 0.309 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 26 | 88 | 8 | 0.091 | 0 | 5 | 0.200 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.161 | 0.264 | 0.208 | OK |
| Chadwick Tromp | C | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.119 | 0.134 | 0.184 | LARGE |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 209 | 795 | 256 | 0.322 | 26 | 84 | 0.408 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.274 | 0.352 | 0.489 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | DH | 173 | 620 | 190 | 0.306 | 39 | 189 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.284 | 0.333 | 0.459 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 206 | 838 | 298 | 0.356 | 19 | 97 | 0.387 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.338 | 0.374 | 0.472 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | LF | 112 | 422 | 88 | 0.209 | 4 | 25 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.306 | 0.314 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 210 | 787 | 166 | 0.211 | 13 | 59 | 0.342 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.388 | 0.354 | OK |
| Christopher Morel | 1B | 50 | 168 | 27 | 0.161 | 0 | 4 | 0.217 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.168 | 0.202 | 0.258 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 131 | 418 | 90 | 0.215 | 9 | 71 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.197 | 0.243 | 0.306 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 46 | 158 | 32 | 0.203 | 0 | 24 | 0.241 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.180 | 0.223 | 0.258 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 3B | 103 | 359 | 96 | 0.267 | 4 | 71 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.269 | 0.387 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Spencer Strider | Starter | 3 | 14.2 | 2.54 | 1.268 | 11.4 | 18 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 87 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 14 | 14.2 | 0.00 | 0.775 | 11.4 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.4 | 0.46 | 0.928 | 8.8 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 23 | 20.8 | 0.87 | 0.577 | 12.1 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Kinley | Middle Reliever | 23 | 18.8 | 4.31 | 1.489 | 10.1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sandy Alcantara | Starter | 10 | 63.2 | 3.56 | 1.266 | 6.4 | 45 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 101 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 11 | 9.3 | 9.68 | 1.613 | 14.5 | 15 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.0 | 4.76 | 1.882 | 11.1 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Bender | Middle Reliever | 20 | 15.5 | 4.65 | 1.290 | 11.6 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Phillips | Middle Reliever | 15 | 28.6 | 1.26 | 1.329 | 8.5 | 27 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
ATL wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Quality edge: -1.0847; margin adjustment: -0.4556; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Daniel Schneemann | 3B | 142 | 498 | 122 | 0.245 | 17 | 73 | 0.329 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.224 | 0.300 | 0.363 | OK |
| José Ramírez | DH | 222 | 825 | 201 | 0.244 | 36 | 106 | 0.371 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.246 | 0.373 | 0.444 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 189 | 735 | 196 | 0.267 | 32 | 143 | 0.348 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.331 | 0.422 | OK |
| Rhys Hoskins | 1B | 132 | 406 | 84 | 0.207 | 18 | 73 | 0.361 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.226 | 0.369 | 0.443 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 83 | 295 | 89 | 0.302 | 8 | 39 | 0.434 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.336 | 0.446 | 0.506 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | LF | 168 | 648 | 180 | 0.278 | 38 | 110 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.243 | 0.404 | OK |
| Steven Kwan | CF | 205 | 783 | 164 | 0.209 | 4 | 52 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.249 | 0.416 | 0.359 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 13 | 39 | 4 | 0.103 | 0 | 3 | 0.167 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.165 | 0.227 | 0.242 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 183 | 617 | 174 | 0.282 | 14 | 104 | 0.366 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.255 | 0.341 | 0.393 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Matt Vierling | CF | 135 | 479 | 104 | 0.217 | 15 | 82 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.174 | 0.263 | 0.332 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | 3B | 209 | 804 | 235 | 0.292 | 10 | 75 | 0.397 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.350 | 0.371 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 175 | 663 | 160 | 0.241 | 35 | 120 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.259 | 0.370 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 205 | 741 | 251 | 0.339 | 17 | 107 | 0.437 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.358 | 0.457 | 0.503 | OK |
| Jahmai Jones | DH | 60 | 132 | 23 | 0.174 | 4 | 12 | 0.273 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.114 | 0.243 | 0.215 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 189 | 648 | 130 | 0.201 | 28 | 76 | 0.312 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.282 | 0.422 | OK |
| Wenceel Pérez | RF | 108 | 373 | 60 | 0.161 | 3 | 26 | 0.214 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.177 | 0.243 | 0.232 | OK |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 2B | 59 | 175 | 33 | 0.189 | 2 | 17 | 0.260 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.203 | 0.268 | 0.300 | OK |
| Zack Short | SS | 18 | 36 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.308 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.068 | 0.281 | 0.112 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Joey Cantillo | Starter | 10 | 48.7 | 3.51 | 1.396 | 8.3 | 45 | 5.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 84 | 5.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 23 | 23.2 | 2.72 | 1.164 | 13.6 | 35 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever | 25 | 16.8 | 2.14 | 1.190 | 20.9 | 39 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 13 | 8.9 | 6.07 | 1.798 | 8.1 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shawn Armstrong | Middle Reliever | 11 | 8.8 | 2.05 | 1.477 | 13.3 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Casey Mize | Starter | 7 | 35.6 | 2.53 | 1.096 | 9.9 | 39 | 5.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 106 | 5.1 | 7 | 1 |
| Kenley Jansen | Middle Reliever | 15 | 12.4 | 2.18 | 0.968 | 13.8 | 19 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.8 | 0.87 | 1.442 | 6.5 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Will Vest | Middle Reliever | 15 | 11.8 | 6.86 | 1.610 | 11.4 | 15 | 1.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 1.0 | 2 | 4 |
CLE wins 5-0
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| ARI | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 8 |
Quality edge: 1.2496; margin adjustment: 0.5248; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Willi Castro | 1B | 151 | 555 | 134 | 0.241 | 8 | 63 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.289 | 0.330 | OK |
| Tyler Freeman | RF | 106 | 387 | 100 | 0.258 | 10 | 52 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.230 | 0.281 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 185 | 735 | 181 | 0.246 | 51 | 84 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.201 | 0.251 | 0.391 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 174 | 656 | 139 | 0.212 | 4 | 65 | 0.265 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.297 | 0.303 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 159 | 488 | 113 | 0.232 | 4 | 40 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.207 | 0.319 | 0.292 | OK |
| Jake McCarthy | CF | 108 | 338 | 95 | 0.281 | 8 | 57 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.248 | 0.286 | 0.408 | OK |
| Braxton Fulford | DH | 10 | 19 | 6 | 0.316 | 3 | 6 | 0.409 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.118 | 0.237 | 0.216 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | LF | 155 | 561 | 192 | 0.342 | 10 | 88 | 0.402 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.311 | 0.366 | 0.442 | OK |
| Chad Stevens | 2B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.318 | 0.381 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 190 | 801 | 189 | 0.236 | 30 | 99 | 0.283 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.261 | 0.306 | 0.493 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 190 | 681 | 201 | 0.295 | 32 | 110 | 0.407 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.312 | 0.420 | 0.653 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 187 | 661 | 149 | 0.225 | 9 | 58 | 0.348 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.354 | 0.350 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 171 | 599 | 173 | 0.289 | 29 | 107 | 0.365 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.308 | 0.372 | 0.554 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 171 | 715 | 241 | 0.337 | 32 | 141 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.336 | 0.354 | 0.508 | OK |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | LF | 93 | 355 | 85 | 0.239 | 5 | 42 | 0.302 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.327 | 0.380 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 103 | 382 | 100 | 0.262 | 9 | 60 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.253 | 0.318 | 0.416 | OK |
| Adrian Del Castillo | DH | 104 | 385 | 73 | 0.190 | 11 | 66 | 0.232 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.253 | 0.324 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 40 | 131 | 39 | 0.298 | 0 | 24 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.332 | 0.367 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zach Agnos | Starter | 13 | 27.6 | 5.87 | 1.486 | 6.5 | 20 | 4.1 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 80 | 4.1 | 3 | 5 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 14 | 27.3 | 1.32 | 0.916 | 8.6 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 20 | 20.4 | 4.41 | 1.716 | 12.4 | 28 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever | 21 | 14.1 | 3.83 | 1.844 | 13.4 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Middle Reliever | 22 | 14.0 | 5.14 | 1.786 | 9.0 | 14 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Seth Halvorsen | Middle Reliever | 7 | 7.0 | 2.57 | 1.714 | 7.7 | 6 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Starter | 9 | 52.4 | 2.58 | 1.279 | 6.7 | 39 | 6.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 100 | 6.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 7.5 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taylor Clarke | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 360.00 | 30.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 |
ARI wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
Quality edge: 0.0929; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 169 | 644 | 183 | 0.284 | 11 | 83 | 0.344 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.308 | 0.356 | 0.403 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 214 | 896 | 205 | 0.229 | 24 | 123 | 0.278 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.258 | 0.304 | 0.503 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 145 | 559 | 170 | 0.304 | 34 | 88 | 0.403 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.315 | 0.406 | 0.606 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | 1B | 152 | 571 | 138 | 0.242 | 24 | 91 | 0.282 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.251 | 0.373 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 159 | 583 | 143 | 0.245 | 14 | 88 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.282 | 0.365 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 194 | 720 | 174 | 0.242 | 14 | 85 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.282 | 0.330 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 33 | 108 | 35 | 0.324 | 4 | 20 | 0.486 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.287 | 0.431 | 0.453 | OK |
| MJ Melendez | DH | 70 | 192 | 50 | 0.260 | 7 | 20 | 0.349 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.281 | 0.372 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 74 | 223 | 39 | 0.175 | 0 | 31 | 0.237 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.133 | 0.170 | 0.229 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | LF | 235 | 917 | 246 | 0.268 | 65 | 177 | 0.413 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.295 | 0.409 | 0.588 | OK |
| Curtis Mead | 3B | 116 | 361 | 94 | 0.260 | 17 | 64 | 0.396 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.380 | 0.428 | OK |
| Andrés Chaparro | 1B | 10 | 28 | 6 | 0.214 | 0 | 0 | 0.241 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.192 | 0.231 | 0.345 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 208 | 801 | 244 | 0.305 | 39 | 183 | 0.390 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.283 | 0.367 | 0.503 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | RF | 5 | 20 | 5 | 0.250 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.253 | 0.322 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | DH | 216 | 896 | 234 | 0.261 | 32 | 120 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.306 | 0.405 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 171 | 655 | 151 | 0.231 | 20 | 86 | 0.284 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.262 | 0.317 | 0.531 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | 2B | 166 | 556 | 109 | 0.196 | 0 | 59 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.215 | 0.316 | 0.248 | OK |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 96 | 333 | 81 | 0.243 | 17 | 82 | 0.263 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.307 | 0.553 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.212 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| David Peterson | Starter | 10 | 41.7 | 5.61 | 1.631 | 9.9 | 46 | 4.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 77 | 4.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.5 | 3.72 | 1.310 | 14.9 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 19 | 18.7 | 3.85 | 1.230 | 10.1 | 21 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 20 | 15.3 | 1.76 | 1.373 | 12.4 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Huascar Brazobán | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.9 | 2.26 | 1.206 | 8.6 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cade Cavalli | Starter | 10 | 44.8 | 4.22 | 1.607 | 10.4 | 52 | 4.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 84 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Gus Varland | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.4 | 4.68 | 1.753 | 10.5 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| PJ Poulin | Middle Reliever | 23 | 17.7 | 3.56 | 1.808 | 8.1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 15 | 29.2 | 3.39 | 1.199 | 8.0 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Richard Lovelady | Middle Reliever | 13 | 11.0 | 2.45 | 2.000 | 11.5 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
NYM wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| LAA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 3 | 6 |
Quality edge: -1.4719; margin adjustment: -0.6182; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carlos Cortes | RF | 121 | 406 | 149 | 0.367 | 18 | 69 | 0.434 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.300 | 0.421 | 0.470 | OK |
| Shea Langeliers | C | 199 | 830 | 275 | 0.331 | 55 | 126 | 0.401 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.373 | 0.486 | OK |
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 218 | 798 | 228 | 0.286 | 38 | 162 | 0.440 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.315 | 0.446 | 0.527 | OK |
| Brent Rooker | DH | 138 | 533 | 112 | 0.210 | 36 | 123 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.331 | 0.486 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 192 | 748 | 149 | 0.199 | 22 | 100 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.196 | 0.271 | 0.356 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 103 | 373 | 101 | 0.271 | 26 | 64 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.289 | 0.480 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 161 | 563 | 165 | 0.293 | 6 | 58 | 0.355 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.296 | 0.350 | 0.407 | OK |
| Darell Hernaiz | SS | 90 | 277 | 75 | 0.271 | 4 | 24 | 0.359 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.327 | 0.282 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | CF | 152 | 515 | 97 | 0.188 | 13 | 55 | 0.293 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.173 | 0.266 | 0.261 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 226 | 895 | 201 | 0.225 | 35 | 105 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.215 | 0.318 | 0.406 | OK |
| Mike Trout | DH | 218 | 774 | 188 | 0.243 | 58 | 123 | 0.413 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.406 | 0.531 | OK |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | 192 | 770 | 195 | 0.253 | 14 | 94 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.286 | 0.335 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 3B | 99 | 364 | 91 | 0.250 | 8 | 55 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.226 | 0.295 | 0.341 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 205 | 805 | 208 | 0.258 | 27 | 123 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.242 | 0.352 | OK |
| Josh Lowe | LF | 127 | 424 | 77 | 0.182 | 18 | 50 | 0.228 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.232 | 0.351 | OK |
| Jose Siri | CF | 5 | 9 | 4 | 0.444 | 0 | 0 | 0.444 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.234 | 0.477 | OK |
| Sebastián Rivero | C | 28 | 75 | 12 | 0.160 | 0 | 0 | 0.192 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.127 | 0.162 | 0.165 | OK |
| Adam Frazier | 2B | 76 | 217 | 62 | 0.286 | 3 | 23 | 0.365 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.223 | 0.290 | 0.372 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0.207 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Luis Severino | Starter | 10 | 53.5 | 4.54 | 1.607 | 9.1 | 54 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 97 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 26 | 18.4 | 3.91 | 2.174 | 12.7 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Joel Kuhnel | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.4 | 3.12 | 1.250 | 6.2 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 22 | 20.3 | 1.77 | 0.788 | 9.3 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| José Soriano | Starter | 10 | 58.5 | 2.46 | 1.094 | 10.3 | 67 | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 95 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 17 | 20.0 | 5.40 | 1.350 | 13.0 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 17 | 20.5 | 3.07 | 1.122 | 11.0 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 5 | 3.4 | 7.94 | 1.765 | 18.5 | 7 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
LAA wins 3-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.3601; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 213 | 924 | 249 | 0.269 | 48 | 161 | 0.336 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.271 | 0.339 | 0.437 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 189 | 759 | 195 | 0.257 | 56 | 157 | 0.353 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.259 | 0.341 | 0.506 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 209 | 762 | 200 | 0.262 | 18 | 134 | 0.396 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.248 | 0.360 | 0.397 | OK |
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 156 | 522 | 148 | 0.284 | 12 | 89 | 0.400 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.275 | 0.379 | 0.431 | OK |
| Konnor Griffin | SS | 171 | 666 | 181 | 0.272 | 14 | 94 | 0.330 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.320 | 0.400 | OK |
| Marcell Ozuna | DH | 171 | 685 | 126 | 0.184 | 25 | 81 | 0.283 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.166 | 0.281 | 0.293 | OK |
| Jake Mangum | RF | 85 | 311 | 83 | 0.267 | 0 | 6 | 0.329 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.214 | 0.293 | 0.262 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | 3B | 59 | 209 | 50 | 0.239 | 0 | 8 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.294 | 0.307 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 108 | 367 | 54 | 0.147 | 8 | 33 | 0.248 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.131 | 0.208 | 0.218 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 215 | 833 | 204 | 0.245 | 42 | 117 | 0.370 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.363 | 0.484 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 216 | 813 | 213 | 0.262 | 23 | 107 | 0.391 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.246 | 0.339 | 0.432 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 202 | 817 | 235 | 0.288 | 31 | 156 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.318 | 0.375 | 0.561 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 199 | 778 | 235 | 0.302 | 59 | 154 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.270 | 0.329 | 0.492 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 176 | 634 | 154 | 0.243 | 24 | 109 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.353 | 0.455 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 174 | 679 | 172 | 0.253 | 5 | 78 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.290 | 0.335 | OK |
| José Fermín | LF | 59 | 162 | 34 | 0.210 | 4 | 23 | 0.286 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.132 | 0.220 | 0.227 | OK |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 114 | 400 | 88 | 0.220 | 16 | 36 | 0.265 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.268 | 0.354 | OK |
| Victor Scott II | CF | 134 | 396 | 77 | 0.194 | 9 | 27 | 0.256 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.193 | 0.243 | 0.278 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Braxton Ashcraft | Starter | 9 | 53.7 | 3.18 | 1.080 | 9.4 | 56 | 6.1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 105 | 6.1 | 7 | 0 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 23 | 22.4 | 2.41 | 0.848 | 11.7 | 29 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.4 | 3.71 | 1.237 | 6.0 | 13 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.2 | 3.55 | 1.447 | 15.4 | 26 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dustin May | Starter | 9 | 48.2 | 4.85 | 1.432 | 6.5 | 35 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 102 | 5.1 | 7 | 2 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 23 | 21.6 | 3.33 | 1.065 | 10.4 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 23 | 19.0 | 3.79 | 1.474 | 9.9 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 22 | 17.4 | 4.14 | 1.437 | 8.8 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever | 23 | 16.5 | 7.64 | 2.303 | 14.7 | 27 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 |
PIT wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | x | 4 | 5 |
Quality edge: 1.8514; margin adjustment: 0.7776; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| George Springer | DH | 126 | 515 | 103 | 0.200 | 14 | 41 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.203 | 0.264 | 0.327 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 204 | 756 | 216 | 0.286 | 12 | 97 | 0.380 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.326 | 0.331 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 181 | 685 | 199 | 0.291 | 24 | 70 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.318 | 0.370 | 0.463 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 195 | 732 | 167 | 0.228 | 45 | 120 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.291 | 0.357 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | SS | 190 | 768 | 227 | 0.296 | 14 | 72 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.312 | 0.465 | OK |
| Lenyn Sosa | 2B | 70 | 241 | 49 | 0.203 | 5 | 19 | 0.201 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.159 | 0.163 | 0.248 | OK |
| Myles Straw | RF | 86 | 222 | 60 | 0.270 | 7 | 17 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.136 | 0.229 | 0.224 | OK |
| Brandon Valenzuela | C | 82 | 258 | 69 | 0.267 | 17 | 44 | 0.339 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.301 | 0.379 | OK |
| Davis Schneider | LF | 82 | 214 | 27 | 0.126 | 1 | 22 | 0.297 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.136 | 0.301 | 0.218 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ben Rice | DH | 186 | 697 | 203 | 0.291 | 69 | 144 | 0.400 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.362 | 0.623 | OK |
| Aaron Judge | RF | 218 | 786 | 207 | 0.263 | 70 | 138 | 0.402 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.360 | 0.459 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 210 | 767 | 209 | 0.272 | 27 | 140 | 0.383 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.396 | 0.488 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 195 | 733 | 178 | 0.243 | 21 | 82 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.342 | 0.402 | OK |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 82 | 293 | 88 | 0.300 | 23 | 57 | 0.395 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.290 | 0.381 | 0.629 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | CF | 24 | 63 | 12 | 0.190 | 0 | 8 | 0.292 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.298 | 0.268 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 138 | 459 | 87 | 0.190 | 13 | 57 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.268 | 0.371 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | SS | 25 | 71 | 22 | 0.310 | 0 | 15 | 0.515 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.458 | 0.425 | OK |
| J.C. Escarra | C | 54 | 185 | 35 | 0.189 | 0 | 28 | 0.234 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.167 | 0.215 | 0.284 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 28 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0.179 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Braydon Fisher | Starter | 24 | 21.9 | 3.70 | 1.279 | 9.9 | 24 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 100 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 24 | 23.1 | 0.78 | 1.299 | 14.4 | 37 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 23 | 20.7 | 1.74 | 1.159 | 6.5 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Middle Reliever | 23 | 18.9 | 6.19 | 1.958 | 16.7 | 35 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0.2 | 1 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Carlos Rodón | Starter | 2 | 7.3 | 6.16 | 1.781 | 12.3 | 10 | 4.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 83 | 4.0 | 5 | 2 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.6 | 5.51 | 1.735 | 11.5 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 23 | 14.4 | 3.12 | 1.875 | 17.5 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 23 | 15.7 | 1.72 | 1.083 | 4.6 | 8 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brent Headrick | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.0 | 2.70 | 1.550 | 12.6 | 28 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
NYY wins 4-2