MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

May 21, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (7 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ATL @ MIA3 - 13 - 2ATLATLATL wins 3-258%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
CLE @ DET3 - 25 - 0CLECLECLE wins 5-052%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
COL @ ARI2 - 43 - 5ARIARIARI wins 5-360%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
NYM @ WAS4 - 35 - 2NYMNYMNYM wins 5-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
OAK @ LAA2 - 31 - 3LAALAALAA wins 3-151%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
PIT @ STL2 - 14 - 3PITPITPIT wins 4-355%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
TOR @ NYY2 - 42 - 4NYYNYYNYY wins 4-258%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

ATL 34-16 (5.34 RPG / 3.38 RA)
3 - 2
MIA 22-28 (4.36 RPG / 4.62 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 3-2 TARGET: ATL 3 - 1 MIA (ATL) Confidence: 58.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
ATL02000100039
MIA00001010027

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.280
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff-76.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.347
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-113.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ATL Season Quality

Record34-16
Win%0.680
Run Diff98
RD/Game1.960

MIA Season Quality

Record22-28
Win%0.440
Run Diff-13
RD/Game-0.260

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.58; margin adjustment: -1.0836; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 159612153 0.250 10440.363 55100 02 0.200 0.265 0.386 0.413 OK
Michael Harris IICF 167640186 0.291 341010.313 55211 01 0.400 0.298 0.321 0.525 OK
Matt Olson1B 215830242 0.292 631890.376 55100 02 0.200 0.320 0.425 0.600 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 211819229 0.280 341200.337 53000 20 0.000 0.266 0.359 0.406 OK
Dominic SmithDH 101332118 0.355 16710.382 53000 11 0.000 0.288 0.312 0.481 OK
Austin Riley3B 206791173 0.219 311290.290 55000 00 0.000 0.207 0.264 0.375 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 14447798 0.205 6370.286 44200 01 0.500 0.198 0.292 0.309 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 26888 0.091 050.200 42111 20 0.500 0.161 0.264 0.208 OK
Chadwick TrompC 111 1.000 001.000 44211 01 0.500 0.119 0.134 0.184 LARGE
TEAM TOTALS 42369 33 58 0.250

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 209795256 0.322 26840.408 54111 10 0.250 0.274 0.352 0.489 OK
Liam HicksDH 173620190 0.306 391890.367 44100 00 0.250 0.284 0.333 0.459 OK
Otto LopezSS 206838298 0.356 19970.387 44100 01 0.250 0.338 0.374 0.472 OK
Kyle StowersLF 11242288 0.209 4250.316 43000 12 0.000 0.211 0.306 0.314 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 210787166 0.211 13590.342 43000 10 0.000 0.240 0.388 0.354 OK
Christopher Morel1B 5016827 0.161 040.217 44000 02 0.000 0.168 0.202 0.258 OK
Owen CaissieRF 13141890 0.215 9710.271 44200 01 0.500 0.197 0.243 0.306 OK
Joe MackC 4615832 0.203 0240.241 44211 01 0.500 0.180 0.223 0.258 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 10335996 0.267 4710.313 44000 01 0.000 0.222 0.269 0.387 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 22 38 0.206

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer StriderStarter 314.22.54 1.26811.418 5.04112587 5.0 5 1
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1414.20.00 0.77511.418 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 2019.40.46 0.9288.819 1.02110014 1.0 0 1
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 2320.80.87 0.57712.128 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 2318.84.31 1.48910.121 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sandy AlcantaraStarter 1063.23.56 1.2666.445 5.262234101 5.2 4 2
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 119.39.68 1.61314.515 1.03111126 1.0 1 1
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 2017.04.76 1.88211.121 1.00001219 1.0 2 0
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 2015.54.65 1.29011.620 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Tyler PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1528.61.26 1.3298.527 0.10000019 0.1 0 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 3-2


Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

CLE 30-22 (4.38 RPG / 3.94 RA)
5 - 0
DET 20-31 (3.84 RPG / 4.29 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 5-0 TARGET: CLE 3 - 2 DET (CLE) Confidence: 52.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
CLE000001004511
DET00000000004

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.451
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-77.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

DET Recent Form

Win%0.240
Avg Runs1.0
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff-117.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

CLE Season Quality

Record29-22
Win%0.569
Run Diff21
RD/Game0.412

DET Season Quality

Record20-30
Win%0.400
Run Diff-21
RD/Game-0.420

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0847; margin adjustment: -0.4556; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Daniel Schneemann3B 142498122 0.245 17730.329 55211 02 0.400 0.224 0.300 0.363 OK
José RamírezDH 222825201 0.244 361060.371 55211 00 0.400 0.246 0.373 0.444 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 189735196 0.267 321430.348 54111 11 0.250 0.246 0.331 0.422 OK
Rhys Hoskins1B 13240684 0.207 18730.361 55100 02 0.200 0.226 0.369 0.443 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 8329589 0.302 8390.434 54000 12 0.000 0.336 0.446 0.506 OK
Angel MartínezLF 168648180 0.278 381100.321 44111 02 0.250 0.216 0.243 0.404 OK
Steven KwanCF 205783164 0.209 4520.333 43200 11 0.667 0.249 0.416 0.359 OK
Patrick BaileyC 13394 0.103 030.167 44000 02 0.000 0.165 0.227 0.242 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 183617174 0.282 141040.366 44211 02 0.500 0.255 0.341 0.393 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413811 55 314 0.289

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Matt VierlingCF 135479104 0.217 15820.294 44200 01 0.500 0.174 0.263 0.332 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 209804235 0.292 10750.397 44000 00 0.000 0.254 0.350 0.371 OK
Dillon DinglerC 175663160 0.241 351200.318 44000 01 0.000 0.198 0.259 0.370 OK
Riley GreeneLF 205741251 0.339 171070.437 44100 00 0.250 0.358 0.457 0.503 OK
Jahmai JonesDH 6013223 0.174 4120.273 43000 00 0.000 0.114 0.243 0.215 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 189648130 0.201 28760.312 33000 01 0.000 0.190 0.282 0.422 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 10837360 0.161 3260.214 33000 01 0.000 0.177 0.243 0.232 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 5917533 0.189 2170.260 33100 00 0.333 0.203 0.268 0.300 OK
Zack ShortSS 18360 0.000 000.308 33000 01 0.000 0.068 0.281 0.112
TEAM TOTALS 32314 00 05 0.129

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joey CantilloStarter 1048.73.51 1.3968.345 5.04000484 5.0 4 0
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2323.22.72 1.16413.635 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever 2516.82.14 1.19020.939 0.20000013 0.2 0 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 138.96.07 1.7988.18 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 118.82.05 1.47713.313 1.0000003 1.0 0 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Casey MizeStarter 735.62.53 1.0969.939 5.151137106 5.1 7 1
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 1512.42.18 0.96813.819 1.21000225 1.2 2 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2120.80.87 1.4426.515 1.00000317 1.0 3 0
Will VestMiddle Reliever 1511.86.86 1.61011.415 1.05440228 1.0 2 4

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-0


Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

COL 19-31 (4.2 RPG / 5.28 RA)
3 - 5
ARI 25-23 (4.6 RPG / 4.65 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 5-3 TARGET: COL 2 - 4 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 59.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
COL01000001137
ARI04100000x58

COL Recent Form

Win%0.122
Avg Runs1.1
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-170.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.396
Avg Runs1.5
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff-55.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

COL Season Quality

Record19-31
Win%0.380
Run Diff-54
RD/Game-1.080

ARI Season Quality

Record25-23
Win%0.521
Run Diff-2
RD/Game-0.042

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.2496; margin adjustment: 0.5248; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Willi Castro1B 151555134 0.241 8630.296 44000 01 0.000 0.220 0.289 0.330 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 106387100 0.258 10520.336 44000 01 0.000 0.205 0.230 0.281 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 185735181 0.246 51840.312 44100 01 0.250 0.201 0.251 0.391 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 174656139 0.212 4650.265 42000 20 0.000 0.202 0.297 0.303 OK
Kyle Karros3B 159488113 0.232 4400.349 44100 00 0.250 0.207 0.319 0.292 OK
Jake McCarthyCF 10833895 0.281 8570.332 44211 00 0.500 0.248 0.286 0.408 OK
Braxton FulfordDH 10196 0.316 360.409 44111 01 0.250 0.118 0.237 0.216 OK
Troy JohnstonLF 155561192 0.342 10880.402 44100 01 0.250 0.311 0.366 0.442 OK
Chad Stevens2B 000 0.000 000.000 44111 01 0.250 0.248 0.318 0.381
TEAM TOTALS 36347 33 26 0.206

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 190801189 0.236 30990.283 43111 11 0.333 0.261 0.306 0.493 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 190681201 0.295 321100.407 44000 01 0.000 0.312 0.420 0.653 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 187661149 0.225 9580.348 43000 12 0.000 0.224 0.354 0.350 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 171599173 0.289 291070.365 44111 01 0.250 0.308 0.372 0.554 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 171715241 0.337 321410.356 44212 00 0.500 0.336 0.354 0.508 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 9335585 0.239 5420.302 43000 10 0.000 0.269 0.327 0.380 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 103382100 0.262 9600.319 44311 00 0.750 0.253 0.318 0.416 OK
Adrian Del CastilloDH 10438573 0.190 11660.232 43000 10 0.000 0.212 0.253 0.324 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 4013139 0.298 0240.378 44110 00 0.250 0.233 0.332 0.367 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36328 55 45 0.250

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zach AgnosStarter 1327.65.87 1.4866.520 4.17551380 4.1 3 5
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1427.31.32 0.9168.626 1.1000218 1.1 1 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 2020.44.41 1.71612.428 0.20000020 0.2 0 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 2114.13.83 1.84413.421 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 2214.05.14 1.7869.014 0.00000013 0.0 0 0
Seth HalvorsenMiddle Reliever 77.02.57 1.7147.76 0.21001019 0.2 0 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eduardo RodriguezStarter 952.42.58 1.2796.739 6.221116100 6.2 6 1
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.01110020 1.0 0 1
Taylor ClarkeMiddle Reliever 10.1360.00 30.0000.00 0.13111017 0.1 0 1

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-3


New York Mets @ Washington Nationals

NYM 22-28 (4.08 RPG / 4.34 RA)
5 - 2
WAS 25-26 (5.49 RPG / 5.8 RA)
WINNER: NYM wins 5-2 TARGET: NYM 4 - 3 WAS (NYM) Confidence: 53.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
NYM10100110159
WAS00002000027

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.396
Avg Runs1.6
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-85.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.280
Avg Runs1.7
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-138.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

NYM Season Quality

Record21-28
Win%0.429
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.286

WAS Season Quality

Record25-25
Win%0.500
Run Diff-15
RD/Game-0.300

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0929; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 169644183 0.284 11830.344 55111 01 0.200 0.308 0.356 0.403 OK
Bo BichetteSS 214896205 0.229 241230.278 55100 02 0.200 0.258 0.304 0.503 OK
Juan SotoLF 145559170 0.304 34880.403 54111 10 0.250 0.315 0.406 0.606 OK
Mark Vientos1B 152571138 0.242 24910.282 44100 01 0.250 0.216 0.251 0.373 OK
Brett Baty3B 159583143 0.245 14880.309 44111 01 0.250 0.223 0.282 0.365 OK
Marcus Semien2B 194720174 0.242 14850.291 44000 00 0.000 0.237 0.282 0.330 OK
A.J. EwingCF 3310835 0.324 4200.486 43210 10 0.667 0.287 0.431 0.453 OK
MJ MelendezDH 7019250 0.260 7200.349 43000 12 0.000 0.208 0.281 0.372 OK
Luis TorrensC 7422339 0.175 0310.237 44212 01 0.500 0.133 0.170 0.229 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39369 55 38 0.250

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodLF 235917246 0.268 651770.413 55211 01 0.400 0.295 0.409 0.588 OK
Curtis Mead3B 11636194 0.260 17640.396 53011 11 0.000 0.227 0.380 0.428 OK
Andrés Chaparro1B 10286 0.214 000.241 54200 11 0.500 0.192 0.231 0.345 OK
CJ AbramsSS 208801244 0.305 391830.390 44100 01 0.250 0.283 0.367 0.503 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 5205 0.250 000.250 44000 01 0.000 0.240 0.253 0.322 OK
Daylen LileDH 216896234 0.261 321200.320 44000 01 0.000 0.251 0.306 0.405 OK
Jacob YoungCF 171655151 0.231 20860.284 43100 10 0.333 0.262 0.317 0.531 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 166556109 0.196 0590.314 43100 11 0.333 0.215 0.316 0.248 OK
Keibert RuizC 9633381 0.243 17820.263 43000 10 0.000 0.270 0.307 0.553 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39337 22 57 0.212

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
David PetersonStarter 1041.75.61 1.6319.946 4.05222277 4.0 2 2
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 1714.53.72 1.31014.924 1.00002221 1.0 2 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 1918.73.85 1.23010.121 1.02000119 1.0 1 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 2015.31.76 1.37312.421 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever 2019.92.26 1.2068.619 1.10001121 1.1 1 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cade CavalliStarter 1044.84.22 1.60710.452 4.26220584 4.2 5 2
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 1915.44.68 1.75310.518 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
PJ PoulinMiddle Reliever 2317.73.56 1.8088.116 1.01111120 1.0 1 1
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1529.23.39 1.1998.026 1.10001223 1.1 2 0
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 1311.02.45 2.00011.514 1.01111020 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

NYM wins 5-2


Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

OAK 25-24 (4.51 RPG / 4.61 RA)
1 - 3
LAA 17-33 (3.98 RPG / 5.34 RA)
WINNER: LAA wins 3-1 TARGET: OAK 2 - 3 LAA (LAA) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
OAK00000000114
LAA10200000x36

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.245
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-114.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.140
Avg Runs0.8
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-182.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak

OAK Season Quality

Record24-24
Win%0.500
Run Diff-6
RD/Game-0.125

LAA Season Quality

Record17-32
Win%0.347
Run Diff-67
RD/Game-1.367

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.4719; margin adjustment: -0.6182; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CortesRF 121406149 0.367 18690.434 44000 02 0.000 0.300 0.421 0.470 OK
Shea LangeliersC 199830275 0.331 551260.401 43000 11 0.000 0.280 0.373 0.486 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 218798228 0.286 381620.440 43111 11 0.333 0.315 0.446 0.527 OK
Brent RookerDH 138533112 0.210 361230.296 44100 00 0.250 0.241 0.331 0.486 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 192748149 0.199 221000.286 44100 01 0.250 0.196 0.271 0.356 OK
Zack Gelof3B 103373101 0.271 26640.323 44100 00 0.250 0.246 0.289 0.480 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 161563165 0.293 6580.355 43000 10 0.000 0.296 0.350 0.407 OK
Darell HernaizSS 9027775 0.271 4240.359 33000 02 0.000 0.229 0.327 0.282 OK
Lawrence ButlerCF 15251597 0.188 13550.293 33000 01 0.000 0.173 0.266 0.261 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 11 38 0.129

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 226895201 0.225 351050.338 44210 01 0.500 0.215 0.318 0.406 OK
Mike TroutDH 218774188 0.243 581230.413 43000 11 0.000 0.230 0.406 0.531 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 192770195 0.253 14940.309 44000 02 0.000 0.239 0.286 0.335 OK
Vaughn Grissom3B 9936491 0.250 8550.324 43113 00 0.333 0.226 0.295 0.341 OK
Jo AdellRF 205805208 0.258 271230.305 44000 01 0.000 0.217 0.242 0.352 OK
Josh LoweLF 12742477 0.182 18500.228 33000 01 0.000 0.196 0.232 0.351 OK
Jose SiriCF 594 0.444 000.444 32000 10 0.000 0.220 0.234 0.477 OK
Sebastián RiveroC 287512 0.160 000.192 33210 00 0.667 0.127 0.162 0.165 OK
Adam Frazier2B 7621762 0.286 3230.365 33100 01 0.333 0.223 0.290 0.372 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32296 33 27 0.207

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis SeverinoStarter 1053.54.54 1.6079.154 5.06332497 5.0 4 3
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 2618.43.91 2.17412.726 1.0000018 1.0 1 0
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 1814.43.12 1.2506.210 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 2220.31.77 0.7889.321 1.00000115 1.0 1 0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
José SorianoStarter 1058.52.46 1.09410.367 6.02003695 6.0 6 0
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 1720.05.40 1.35013.029 1.00000119 1.0 1 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 1720.53.07 1.12211.025 1.10000018 1.1 0 0
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 53.47.94 1.76518.57 0.22110117 0.2 1 1

Game Summary

LAA wins 3-1


Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals

PIT 26-24 (4.96 RPG / 4.44 RA)
4 - 3
STL 28-21 (4.47 RPG / 4.57 RA)
WINNER: PIT wins 4-3 TARGET: PIT 2 - 1 STL (PIT) Confidence: 55.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
PIT30000001049
STL00000003038

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.245
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-98.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

STL Recent Form

Win%0.167
Avg Runs0.9
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-110.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

PIT Season Quality

Record25-24
Win%0.510
Run Diff22
RD/Game0.449

STL Season Quality

Record28-20
Win%0.583
Run Diff-1
RD/Game-0.021

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3601; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 213924249 0.269 481610.336 55100 03 0.200 0.271 0.339 0.437 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 189759195 0.257 561570.353 55100 02 0.200 0.259 0.341 0.506 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 209762200 0.262 181340.396 54210 10 0.500 0.248 0.360 0.397 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 156522148 0.284 12890.400 54100 13 0.250 0.275 0.379 0.431 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 171666181 0.272 14940.330 53011 01 0.000 0.278 0.320 0.400 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 171685126 0.184 25810.283 55112 03 0.200 0.166 0.281 0.293 OK
Jake MangumRF 8531183 0.267 060.329 43111 10 0.333 0.214 0.293 0.262 OK
Jared Triolo3B 5920950 0.239 080.300 44100 00 0.250 0.254 0.294 0.307 OK
Henry DavisC 10836754 0.147 8330.248 43100 01 0.333 0.131 0.208 0.218 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42369 44 313 0.250

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 215833204 0.245 421170.370 54000 13 0.000 0.267 0.363 0.484 OK
Iván HerreraDH 216813213 0.262 231070.391 55211 01 0.400 0.246 0.339 0.432 OK
Alec Burleson1B 202817235 0.288 311560.352 44211 00 0.500 0.318 0.375 0.561 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 199778235 0.302 591540.371 44211 01 0.500 0.270 0.329 0.492 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 176634154 0.243 241090.326 44100 00 0.250 0.249 0.353 0.455 OK
Masyn WinnSS 174679172 0.253 5780.322 44000 00 0.000 0.240 0.290 0.335 OK
José FermínLF 5916234 0.210 4230.286 43000 11 0.000 0.132 0.220 0.227 OK
Pedro PagésC 11440088 0.220 16360.265 43000 11 0.000 0.217 0.268 0.354 OK
Victor Scott IICF 13439677 0.194 9270.256 44100 01 0.250 0.193 0.243 0.278 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 33 38 0.229

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braxton AshcraftStarter 953.73.18 1.0809.456 6.130017105 6.1 7 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2322.42.41 0.84811.729 1.01000117 1.0 1 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 2119.43.71 1.2376.013 1.03330025 1.0 0 3
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 1815.23.55 1.44715.426 0.21002019 0.2 0 0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dustin MayStarter 948.24.85 1.4326.535 5.152227102 5.1 7 2
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2321.63.33 1.06510.425 1.00001218 1.0 2 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2319.03.79 1.4749.921 1.01000118 1.0 1 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 2217.44.14 1.4378.817 1.02110124 1.0 1 1
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 2316.57.64 2.30314.727 0.21110215 0.2 2 1

Game Summary

PIT wins 4-3


Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

TOR 22-27 (4.08 RPG / 4.33 RA)
2 - 4
NYY 30-20 (5.0 RPG / 3.62 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 4-2 TARGET: TOR 2 - 4 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 58.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality
123456789RH
TOR00100001024
NYY00002002x45

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.265
Avg Runs1.3
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff-85.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.306
Avg Runs1.4
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-61.0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak

TOR Season Quality

Record22-27
Win%0.449
Run Diff-12
RD/Game-0.245

NYY Season Quality

Record30-20
Win%0.600
Run Diff69
RD/Game1.380

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.8514; margin adjustment: 0.7776; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 126515103 0.200 14410.273 44111 01 0.250 0.203 0.264 0.327 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 204756216 0.286 12970.380 42000 20 0.000 0.242 0.326 0.331 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 181685199 0.291 24700.359 43100 11 0.333 0.318 0.370 0.463 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 195732167 0.228 451200.318 44000 01 0.000 0.195 0.291 0.357 OK
Ernie ClementSS 190768227 0.296 14720.318 44000 01 0.000 0.272 0.312 0.465 OK
Lenyn Sosa2B 7024149 0.203 5190.201 44100 00 0.250 0.159 0.163 0.248 OK
Myles StrawRF 8622260 0.270 7170.352 44000 01 0.000 0.136 0.229 0.224 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 8225869 0.267 17440.339 43000 11 0.000 0.235 0.301 0.379 OK
Davis SchneiderLF 8221427 0.126 1220.297 33111 01 0.333 0.136 0.301 0.218 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 22 47 0.129

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ben RiceDH 186697203 0.291 691440.400 44000 02 0.000 0.268 0.362 0.623 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 218786207 0.263 701380.402 42011 10 0.000 0.225 0.360 0.459 OK
Cody BellingerLF 210767209 0.272 271400.383 43000 10 0.000 0.280 0.396 0.488 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 195733178 0.243 21820.325 44110 01 0.250 0.254 0.342 0.402 OK
Paul Goldschmidt1B 8229388 0.300 23570.395 44312 00 0.750 0.290 0.381 0.629 OK
Spencer JonesCF 246312 0.190 080.292 43000 12 0.000 0.211 0.298 0.268 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 13845987 0.190 13570.259 44000 03 0.000 0.207 0.268 0.371 OK
Anthony VolpeSS 257122 0.310 0150.515 32000 11 0.000 0.277 0.458 0.425 OK
J.C. EscarraC 5418535 0.189 0280.234 32111 10 0.500 0.167 0.215 0.284 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34285 44 59 0.179

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braydon FisherStarter 2421.93.70 1.2799.924 5.032245100 5.0 5 2
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 2423.10.78 1.29914.437 1.10000131 1.1 1 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 2320.71.74 1.1596.515 1.00000218 1.0 2 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 2318.96.19 1.95816.735 0.22221118 0.2 1 2

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Carlos RodónStarter 27.36.16 1.78112.310 4.01223583 4.0 5 2
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2119.65.51 1.73511.525 1.10000020 1.1 0 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 2314.43.12 1.87517.528 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2315.71.72 1.0834.68 1.1200127 1.1 2 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 2420.02.70 1.55012.628 1.11000018 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-2