| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ MIA | 3 - 4 | 4 - 5 | MIA | MIA | MIA wins 5-4 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| BAL @ TB | 4 - 5 | 3 - 4 | TB | TB | TB wins 4-3 | 55% | enhanced_ml |
| BOS @ KC | 2 - 1 | 3 - 1 | BOS | BOS | BOS wins 3-1 | 54% | enhanced_ml |
| CHW @ SEA | 4 - 5 | 3 - 5 | SEA | SEA | SEA wins 5-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| CIN @ PHI | 5 - 4 | 6 - 5 | CIN | CIN | CIN wins 6-5 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| CLE @ DET | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | CLE | CLE | CLE wins 5-4 | 55% | enhanced_ml |
| HOU @ MIN | 3 - 4 | 2 - 4 | MIN | MIN | MIN wins 4-2 | 54% | enhanced_ml |
| LAD @ SD | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 | SD | SD | SD wins 3-2 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| MIL @ CHC | 4 - 3 | 6 - 3 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 6-3 | 55% | enhanced_ml |
| NYM @ WAS | 6 - 7 | 8 - 5 | WAS | NYM | NYM wins 8-5 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| OAK @ LAA | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | OAK | OAK | OAK wins 4-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml |
| PIT @ STL | 4 - 6 | 2 - 6 | STL | STL | STL wins 6-2 | 59% | enhanced_ml |
| SF @ ARI | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 | ARI | ARI | ARI wins 5-3 | 57% | enhanced_ml |
| TEX @ COL | 4 - 5 | 3 - 7 | COL | COL | COL wins 7-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| TOR @ NYY | 3 - 4 | 2 - 4 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 4-2 | 55% | enhanced_ml |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: -2.2755; margin adjustment: -0.9557; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 35 | 131 | 33 | 0.252 | 2 | 9 | 0.367 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.377 | 0.407 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 40 | 153 | 43 | 0.281 | 8 | 22 | 0.306 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.248 | 0.278 | 0.450 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 49 | 187 | 53 | 0.283 | 14 | 41 | 0.364 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.345 | 0.485 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 49 | 188 | 51 | 0.271 | 8 | 26 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.277 | 0.333 | OK |
| Dominic Smith | DH | 23 | 81 | 29 | 0.358 | 4 | 18 | 0.384 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.321 | 0.348 | 0.451 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | SS | 46 | 172 | 44 | 0.256 | 3 | 26 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.278 | 0.361 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 48 | 183 | 39 | 0.213 | 7 | 28 | 0.282 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.248 | 0.362 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 32 | 109 | 24 | 0.220 | 2 | 10 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.300 | 0.404 | OK |
| Sandy León | C | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0.200 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.204 | 0.217 | 0.282 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 48 | 181 | 57 | 0.315 | 6 | 19 | 0.398 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.288 | 0.365 | 0.495 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 47 | 189 | 65 | 0.344 | 4 | 21 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.314 | 0.343 | 0.440 | OK |
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 20 | 72 | 12 | 0.167 | 0 | 9 | 0.241 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.178 | 0.244 | 0.230 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 1B | 42 | 141 | 32 | 0.227 | 4 | 14 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.296 | 0.352 | OK |
| Esteury Ruiz | CF | 8 | 25 | 4 | 0.160 | 2 | 4 | 0.185 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.154 | 0.192 | 0.324 | OK |
| Leo Jiménez | 3B | 13 | 39 | 9 | 0.231 | 0 | 1 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.266 | 0.259 | OK |
| Christopher Morel | DH | 13 | 44 | 7 | 0.159 | 0 | 1 | 0.213 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.156 | 0.193 | 0.241 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | C | 38 | 140 | 42 | 0.300 | 9 | 42 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.283 | 0.357 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | RF | 25 | 89 | 23 | 0.258 | 1 | 15 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.178 | 0.226 | 0.308 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0.212 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chris Sale | Starter | 9 | 55.0 | 1.96 | 0.909 | 10.5 | 64 | 6.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 107 | 6.2 | 7 | 1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 14 | 14.2 | 0.00 | 0.775 | 11.4 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.4 | 0.46 | 0.928 | 8.8 | 19 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 23 | 20.8 | 0.87 | 0.577 | 12.1 | 28 | 0.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Janson Junk | Starter | 9 | 48.6 | 4.26 | 1.276 | 6.9 | 37 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 93 | 5.2 | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Phillips | Middle Reliever | 14 | 25.6 | 1.41 | 1.367 | 8.8 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 11 | 9.3 | 9.68 | 1.613 | 14.5 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.0 | 4.76 | 1.882 | 11.1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
MIA wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 8 |
Quality edge: 2.3502; margin adjustment: 0.9871; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Taylor Ward | LF | 48 | 172 | 45 | 0.262 | 2 | 14 | 0.416 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.385 | 0.382 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 48 | 204 | 43 | 0.211 | 10 | 24 | 0.264 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.277 | 0.408 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 30 | 118 | 31 | 0.263 | 7 | 24 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.272 | 0.464 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 49 | 185 | 41 | 0.222 | 8 | 26 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.285 | 0.353 | OK |
| Tyler O'Neill | RF | 21 | 67 | 11 | 0.164 | 2 | 7 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.154 | 0.273 | 0.267 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | DH | 34 | 127 | 33 | 0.260 | 6 | 15 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.298 | 0.424 | OK |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 2B | 39 | 145 | 37 | 0.255 | 6 | 25 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.244 | 0.346 | OK |
| Weston Wilson | 3B | 11 | 28 | 8 | 0.286 | 1 | 1 | 0.412 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.313 | 0.303 | OK |
| Blaze Alexander | CF | 28 | 90 | 21 | 0.233 | 0 | 5 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.281 | 0.282 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 43 | 174 | 49 | 0.282 | 0 | 8 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.312 | 0.339 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 46 | 178 | 47 | 0.264 | 13 | 27 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.280 | 0.376 | 0.545 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | DH | 44 | 164 | 43 | 0.262 | 8 | 35 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.331 | 0.366 | OK |
| Ryan Vilade | 1B | 16 | 48 | 17 | 0.354 | 2 | 12 | 0.407 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.328 | 0.390 | 0.548 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 24 | 69 | 17 | 0.246 | 1 | 9 | 0.369 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.249 | 0.351 | 0.343 | OK |
| Jonny DeLuca | RF | 25 | 95 | 26 | 0.274 | 1 | 12 | 0.310 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.266 | 0.303 | 0.390 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 37 | 137 | 24 | 0.175 | 3 | 14 | 0.240 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.298 | 0.360 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 19 | 45 | 11 | 0.244 | 0 | 4 | 0.340 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.205 | 0.291 | 0.284 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 35 | 109 | 24 | 0.220 | 0 | 14 | 0.320 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.309 | 0.348 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.258 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shane Baz | Starter | 9 | 49.0 | 5.51 | 1.592 | 7.7 | 42 | 4.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 103 | 4.2 | 2 | 4 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 22 | 18.7 | 0.96 | 0.588 | 12.0 | 25 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Nunez | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.9 | 2.71 | 1.005 | 11.8 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Steven Matz | Starter | 7 | 37.1 | 3.88 | 1.105 | 6.8 | 28 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 105 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 22 | 19.4 | 2.78 | 1.082 | 11.1 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | Middle Reliever | 11 | 7.4 | 6.08 | 2.297 | 15.8 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 22 | 19.6 | 2.76 | 0.867 | 7.8 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
TB wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.3858; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jarren Duran | LF | 41 | 167 | 32 | 0.192 | 5 | 22 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.285 | 0.375 | OK |
| Masataka Yoshida | DH | 21 | 71 | 17 | 0.239 | 0 | 5 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.302 | 0.323 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 47 | 180 | 53 | 0.294 | 6 | 19 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.258 | 0.323 | 0.383 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 45 | 163 | 42 | 0.258 | 10 | 30 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.319 | 0.463 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 41 | 149 | 42 | 0.282 | 3 | 15 | 0.352 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.269 | 0.319 | 0.407 | OK |
| Nick Sogard | 3B | 3 | 11 | 3 | 0.273 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.288 | 0.369 | OK |
| Marcelo Mayer | 2B | 36 | 120 | 25 | 0.208 | 2 | 9 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.179 | 0.240 | 0.291 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 29 | 91 | 20 | 0.220 | 2 | 3 | 0.290 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.265 | 0.308 | OK |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | SS | 14 | 40 | 10 | 0.250 | 0 | 2 | 0.318 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.299 | 0.273 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 46 | 186 | 49 | 0.263 | 3 | 18 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.229 | 0.291 | 0.341 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 49 | 193 | 58 | 0.301 | 7 | 23 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.342 | 0.441 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | 1B | 47 | 181 | 36 | 0.199 | 7 | 20 | 0.249 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.191 | 0.240 | 0.345 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 38 | 128 | 28 | 0.219 | 3 | 15 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.182 | 0.289 | 0.264 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | 2B | 14 | 42 | 7 | 0.167 | 0 | 7 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.157 | 0.258 | 0.234 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 38 | 135 | 33 | 0.244 | 4 | 8 | 0.315 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.278 | 0.391 | OK |
| Starling Marte | DH | 13 | 43 | 14 | 0.326 | 0 | 2 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.272 | 0.323 | 0.366 | OK |
| Elias Díaz | C | 6 | 18 | 4 | 0.222 | 1 | 3 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.172 | 0.219 | 0.382 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 37 | 118 | 33 | 0.280 | 3 | 10 | 0.336 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.272 | 0.359 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Connelly Early | Starter | 9 | 46.5 | 3.29 | 1.226 | 8.7 | 45 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 89 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.2 | 0.56 | 0.864 | 12.2 | 22 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever | 19 | 19.1 | 2.83 | 1.047 | 11.3 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 9 | 7.3 | 0.00 | 0.822 | 13.6 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Wacha | Starter | 9 | 57.1 | 2.84 | 0.998 | 7.4 | 47 | 6.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 101 | 6.1 | 5 | 3 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.4 | 3.42 | 1.522 | 8.3 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick Mears | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.8 | 3.42 | 1.456 | 8.0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.9 | 2.01 | 0.894 | 13.1 | 26 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
BOS wins 3-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 11 |
Quality edge: 0.4179; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 27 | 94 | 25 | 0.266 | 1 | 9 | 0.364 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.268 | 0.316 | 0.378 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 46 | 164 | 39 | 0.238 | 17 | 32 | 0.382 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.257 | 0.398 | 0.539 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 35 | 127 | 32 | 0.252 | 3 | 17 | 0.297 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.273 | 0.328 | 0.454 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | 3B | 45 | 168 | 38 | 0.226 | 13 | 31 | 0.323 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.291 | 0.494 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 44 | 166 | 44 | 0.265 | 3 | 11 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.221 | 0.300 | 0.322 | OK |
| Jarred Kelenic | RF | 14 | 43 | 10 | 0.233 | 1 | 4 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.249 | 0.309 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 34 | 103 | 26 | 0.252 | 2 | 11 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.220 | 0.293 | 0.400 | OK |
| Drew Romo | C | 13 | 42 | 8 | 0.190 | 4 | 7 | 0.320 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.184 | 0.286 | 0.393 | OK |
| Luisangel Acuña | SS | 25 | 77 | 12 | 0.156 | 0 | 3 | 0.224 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.138 | 0.205 | 0.177 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Cole Young | 2B | 50 | 175 | 42 | 0.240 | 3 | 26 | 0.316 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.206 | 0.269 | 0.299 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 50 | 199 | 50 | 0.251 | 8 | 21 | 0.317 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.214 | 0.276 | 0.386 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 47 | 184 | 47 | 0.255 | 5 | 22 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.266 | 0.337 | 0.349 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 50 | 180 | 54 | 0.300 | 4 | 19 | 0.386 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 0.360 | 0.440 | OK |
| Luke Raley | RF | 35 | 112 | 31 | 0.277 | 9 | 25 | 0.341 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.276 | 0.317 | 0.577 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 32 | 89 | 23 | 0.258 | 4 | 17 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.212 | 0.298 | 0.372 | OK |
| Patrick Wisdom | 3B | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.198 | 0.210 | 0.291 | |
| Colt Emerson | SS | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0.125 | 1 | 3 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.183 | 0.266 | 0.339 | OK |
| Jhonny Pereda | C | 5 | 15 | 3 | 0.200 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.199 | 0.252 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 0.314 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sean Burke | Starter | 9 | 47.4 | 4.18 | 1.203 | 7.8 | 41 | 6.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 96 | 6.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever | 1 | 2.1 | 8.57 | 1.905 | 4.3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever | 12 | 9.8 | 1.84 | 1.939 | 13.8 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Emerson Hancock | Starter | 9 | 53.2 | 3.05 | 1.015 | 9.5 | 56 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 101 | 6.0 | 7 | 2 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.5 | 5.14 | 1.429 | 16.5 | 32 | 1.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever | 23 | 16.8 | 3.21 | 1.667 | 9.6 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Criswell | Middle Reliever | 17 | 18.4 | 2.93 | 1.087 | 8.3 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Hoppe | Middle Reliever | 7 | 8.4 | 6.43 | 1.548 | 11.8 | 11 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
SEA wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.2857; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Matt McLain | SS | 45 | 171 | 37 | 0.216 | 5 | 20 | 0.316 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.218 | 0.307 | 0.384 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | DH | 49 | 195 | 58 | 0.297 | 11 | 32 | 0.364 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.294 | 0.360 | 0.519 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 21 | 72 | 21 | 0.292 | 6 | 20 | 0.402 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.369 | 0.529 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 3B | 49 | 184 | 46 | 0.250 | 11 | 32 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.353 | 0.440 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | 2B | 46 | 166 | 44 | 0.265 | 7 | 18 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.269 | 0.326 | 0.413 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 26 | 90 | 24 | 0.267 | 6 | 16 | 0.347 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.224 | 0.304 | 0.404 | OK |
| Blake Dunn | CF | 5 | 18 | 7 | 0.389 | 1 | 1 | 0.476 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.365 | 0.437 | OK |
| Will Benson | RF | 23 | 63 | 9 | 0.143 | 1 | 2 | 0.270 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.135 | 0.248 | 0.237 | OK |
| P.J. Higgins | C | 4 | 10 | 2 | 0.200 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.165 | 0.237 | 0.231 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trea Turner | SS | 47 | 199 | 47 | 0.236 | 5 | 16 | 0.282 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.243 | 0.286 | 0.378 | OK |
| Adolis García | RF | 46 | 169 | 35 | 0.207 | 3 | 13 | 0.279 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.165 | 0.227 | 0.250 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | DH | 48 | 177 | 48 | 0.271 | 12 | 30 | 0.366 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.272 | 0.366 | 0.535 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | 44 | 163 | 36 | 0.221 | 4 | 21 | 0.282 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.284 | 0.338 | 0.457 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 29 | 100 | 22 | 0.220 | 1 | 8 | 0.295 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.259 | 0.267 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | CF | 41 | 158 | 51 | 0.323 | 4 | 22 | 0.345 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.292 | 0.378 | OK |
| Edmundo Sosa | 3B | 21 | 69 | 14 | 0.203 | 1 | 9 | 0.233 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.178 | 0.207 | 0.259 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 38 | 140 | 31 | 0.221 | 5 | 21 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.269 | 0.432 | OK |
| Otto Kemp | LF | 6 | 19 | 1 | 0.053 | 0 | 0 | 0.053 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.147 | 0.158 | 0.209 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 36 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 0.278 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Abbott | Starter | 10 | 49.7 | 4.35 | 1.549 | 6.3 | 35 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 94 | 4.2 | 9 | 2 |
| Graham Ashcraft | Middle Reliever | 22 | 21.7 | 2.49 | 1.290 | 10.4 | 25 | 1.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 1.2 | 2 | 3 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.3 | 3.44 | 1.257 | 9.8 | 20 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierce Johnson | Middle Reliever | 22 | 15.6 | 4.62 | 1.667 | 11.0 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Aaron Nola | Starter | 9 | 43.8 | 6.16 | 1.621 | 9.5 | 46 | 4.2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 90 | 4.2 | 2 | 4 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 13 | 12.2 | 1.48 | 1.066 | 15.5 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.5 | 4.38 | 1.297 | 11.7 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 22 | 12.7 | 7.09 | 2.520 | 16.3 | 23 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.8 | 2.43 | 1.284 | 7.3 | 12 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Banks | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.8 | 6.43 | 2.143 | 11.8 | 22 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Chase Shugart | Reliever | 14 | 15.8 | 1.71 | 1.013 | 10.3 | 18 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
CIN wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| DET | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
Quality edge: -1.0359; margin adjustment: -0.4351; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Angel Martínez | LF | 37 | 143 | 40 | 0.280 | 9 | 24 | 0.327 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.278 | 0.309 | 0.547 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 50 | 182 | 43 | 0.236 | 8 | 22 | 0.367 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.302 | 0.422 | 0.532 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | DH | 42 | 162 | 43 | 0.265 | 7 | 30 | 0.349 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.217 | 0.310 | 0.400 | OK |
| Rhys Hoskins | 1B | 30 | 95 | 20 | 0.211 | 4 | 16 | 0.355 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.220 | 0.375 | 0.460 | OK |
| Daniel Schneemann | 2B | 35 | 121 | 30 | 0.248 | 4 | 16 | 0.326 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.194 | 0.277 | 0.317 | OK |
| David Fry | RF | 19 | 57 | 14 | 0.246 | 3 | 8 | 0.348 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.314 | 0.366 | OK |
| Steven Kwan | CF | 45 | 167 | 34 | 0.204 | 1 | 11 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.343 | 0.251 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0.091 | 0 | 1 | 0.167 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.133 | 0.193 | 0.187 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 48 | 156 | 44 | 0.282 | 4 | 27 | 0.369 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.354 | 0.422 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 38 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 0.211 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Colt Keith | 1B | 33 | 115 | 32 | 0.278 | 0 | 4 | 0.320 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.231 | 0.270 | 0.309 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | SS | 46 | 176 | 51 | 0.290 | 2 | 16 | 0.393 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.258 | 0.353 | 0.365 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | DH | 39 | 149 | 36 | 0.242 | 8 | 27 | 0.319 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.223 | 0.293 | 0.389 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 48 | 172 | 58 | 0.337 | 4 | 24 | 0.436 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.323 | 0.413 | 0.456 | OK |
| Matt Vierling | CF | 31 | 111 | 24 | 0.216 | 3 | 16 | 0.290 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.203 | 0.279 | 0.401 | OK |
| Gage Workman | 3B | 4 | 16 | 4 | 0.250 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.219 | 0.435 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | RF | 23 | 77 | 13 | 0.169 | 1 | 5 | 0.238 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.157 | 0.225 | 0.220 | OK |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 2B | 15 | 45 | 8 | 0.178 | 0 | 4 | 0.245 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.166 | 0.232 | 0.286 | OK |
| Jake Rogers | C | 14 | 41 | 6 | 0.146 | 0 | 4 | 0.213 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.142 | 0.203 | 0.261 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 43 | 41 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0.268 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tanner Bibee | Starter | 10 | 50.6 | 4.27 | 1.383 | 8.4 | 47 | 5.1 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 91 | 5.1 | 1 | 3 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 22 | 22.2 | 2.84 | 1.171 | 13.8 | 34 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever | 24 | 16.7 | 2.16 | 1.078 | 20.5 | 38 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Festa | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.1 | 6.15 | 1.491 | 11.7 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Codi Heuer | Reliever | 1 | 2.0 | 4.50 | 2.000 | 9.0 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Framber Valdez | Starter | 10 | 54.3 | 4.64 | 1.418 | 7.5 | 45 | 5.1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 91 | 5.1 | 7 | 3 |
| Kenley Jansen | Middle Reliever | 14 | 11.4 | 2.37 | 0.965 | 14.2 | 18 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.8 | 0.91 | 1.414 | 6.4 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Burch Smith | Middle Reliever | 12 | 15.4 | 2.92 | 1.429 | 11.1 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brant Hurter | Middle Reliever | 19 | 18.0 | 4.00 | 1.333 | 8.0 | 16 | 0.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0.2 | 1 | 2 |
CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 8 |
Quality edge: 1.0518; margin adjustment: 0.4418; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 12 | 50 | 13 | 0.260 | 0 | 1 | 0.309 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.247 | 0.289 | 0.356 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 43 | 158 | 40 | 0.253 | 5 | 20 | 0.344 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.290 | 0.400 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 50 | 181 | 56 | 0.309 | 15 | 31 | 0.419 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.256 | 0.364 | 0.509 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 49 | 179 | 47 | 0.263 | 11 | 31 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.279 | 0.428 | OK |
| Jake Meyers | CF | 11 | 40 | 10 | 0.250 | 1 | 4 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.301 | 0.372 | OK |
| Zach Dezenzo | LF | 9 | 29 | 7 | 0.241 | 1 | 2 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.268 | 0.376 | OK |
| Brice Matthews | 2B | 32 | 109 | 23 | 0.211 | 4 | 12 | 0.256 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.190 | 0.237 | 0.303 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 44 | 152 | 29 | 0.191 | 3 | 15 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.134 | 0.227 | 0.207 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 24 | 78 | 20 | 0.256 | 3 | 13 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.171 | 0.259 | 0.297 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Byron Buxton | DH | 41 | 174 | 46 | 0.264 | 15 | 23 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.281 | 0.335 | 0.639 | OK |
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 31 | 105 | 28 | 0.267 | 2 | 12 | 0.384 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.360 | 0.411 | OK |
| Josh Bell | 1B | 44 | 168 | 39 | 0.232 | 5 | 28 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.275 | 0.324 | 0.458 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | RF | 32 | 112 | 28 | 0.250 | 4 | 12 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.278 | 0.342 | 0.457 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | 2B | 45 | 166 | 39 | 0.235 | 1 | 17 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.313 | 0.323 | OK |
| Victor Caratini | C | 31 | 104 | 19 | 0.183 | 1 | 14 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.153 | 0.234 | 0.195 | OK |
| Tristan Gray | 3B | 21 | 71 | 15 | 0.211 | 3 | 14 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.192 | 0.229 | 0.286 | OK |
| Ryan Kreidler | SS | 8 | 24 | 7 | 0.292 | 2 | 4 | 0.414 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.264 | 0.386 | 0.399 | OK |
| James Outman | CF | 13 | 43 | 9 | 0.209 | 0 | 3 | 0.227 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.200 | 0.223 | 0.342 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.258 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Mike Burrows | Starter | 9 | 48.7 | 5.91 | 1.581 | 8.5 | 46 | 4.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 96 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 18 | 18.2 | 3.46 | 1.593 | 8.4 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.7 | 8.54 | 2.336 | 13.8 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.0 | 5.62 | 1.500 | 9.0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Joe Ryan | Starter | 10 | 50.2 | 3.23 | 1.016 | 9.3 | 52 | 5.2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 95 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Eric Orze | Middle Reliever | 19 | 19.3 | 4.20 | 1.606 | 8.4 | 18 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Taylor Rogers | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.7 | 3.06 | 1.769 | 8.6 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luis García | Middle Reliever | 8 | 8.2 | 6.59 | 1.463 | 2.2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
MIN wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | x | 3 | 4 |
Quality edge: -1.748; margin adjustment: -0.7342; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 44 | 169 | 46 | 0.272 | 7 | 25 | 0.399 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.312 | 0.424 | 0.496 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 14 | 58 | 10 | 0.172 | 4 | 9 | 0.226 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.197 | 0.238 | 0.398 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 46 | 177 | 46 | 0.260 | 6 | 23 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.310 | 0.438 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 46 | 172 | 43 | 0.250 | 4 | 22 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.328 | 0.353 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 48 | 179 | 53 | 0.296 | 10 | 42 | 0.345 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.235 | 0.288 | 0.411 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 45 | 156 | 41 | 0.263 | 12 | 19 | 0.365 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.333 | 0.447 | OK |
| Will Smith | C | 35 | 134 | 33 | 0.246 | 4 | 19 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.207 | 0.279 | 0.325 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 44 | 160 | 42 | 0.262 | 5 | 23 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.313 | 0.396 | OK |
| Hyeseong Kim | 2B | 32 | 97 | 26 | 0.268 | 1 | 10 | 0.339 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.297 | 0.285 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 46 | 177 | 42 | 0.237 | 0 | 14 | 0.310 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.212 | 0.284 | 0.261 | OK |
| Miguel Andujar | DH | 35 | 132 | 40 | 0.303 | 5 | 17 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.281 | 0.305 | 0.541 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | 1B | 37 | 122 | 30 | 0.246 | 7 | 17 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.290 | 0.393 | 0.640 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 46 | 165 | 30 | 0.182 | 7 | 22 | 0.277 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.159 | 0.253 | 0.316 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 46 | 169 | 42 | 0.249 | 6 | 21 | 0.321 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.281 | 0.294 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 45 | 176 | 36 | 0.205 | 4 | 19 | 0.275 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.155 | 0.224 | 0.246 | OK |
| Nick Castellanos | RF | 25 | 88 | 17 | 0.193 | 2 | 16 | 0.226 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.183 | 0.216 | 0.318 | OK |
| Ramón Laureano | LF | 40 | 150 | 33 | 0.220 | 5 | 19 | 0.300 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.176 | 0.259 | 0.290 | OK |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 26 | 85 | 13 | 0.153 | 0 | 3 | 0.237 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.135 | 0.200 | 0.196 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.143 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shohei Ohtani | Starter | 7 | 44.0 | 0.82 | 0.818 | 10.2 | 50 | 5.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 95 | 5.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 21 | 18.5 | 1.46 | 0.649 | 9.7 | 20 | 2.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 2.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Randy Vásquez | Starter | 9 | 49.4 | 2.73 | 1.134 | 8.2 | 45 | 5.2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 96 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 22 | 21.5 | 0.84 | 0.884 | 18.8 | 45 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.5 | 1.24 | 1.034 | 4.3 | 7 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.5 | 5.71 | 1.415 | 12.7 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
SD wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.8736; margin adjustment: -0.3669; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 13 | 59 | 18 | 0.305 | 1 | 5 | 0.339 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.286 | 0.321 | 0.442 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 43 | 161 | 47 | 0.292 | 7 | 29 | 0.413 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.282 | 0.400 | 0.483 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 43 | 175 | 50 | 0.286 | 3 | 27 | 0.357 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.354 | 0.369 | OK |
| Christian Yelich | DH | 17 | 67 | 19 | 0.284 | 2 | 9 | 0.342 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.257 | 0.317 | 0.475 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 34 | 118 | 28 | 0.237 | 2 | 24 | 0.350 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.342 | 0.406 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 36 | 137 | 41 | 0.299 | 7 | 27 | 0.373 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.318 | 0.386 | 0.530 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 39 | 145 | 32 | 0.221 | 3 | 13 | 0.289 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.274 | 0.298 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | SS | 30 | 95 | 20 | 0.211 | 1 | 11 | 0.294 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.315 | 0.329 | OK |
| David Hamilton | 3B | 34 | 103 | 24 | 0.233 | 0 | 7 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.205 | 0.306 | 0.239 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 44 | 36 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 47 | 192 | 50 | 0.260 | 4 | 30 | 0.347 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.234 | 0.322 | 0.329 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 47 | 191 | 46 | 0.241 | 4 | 15 | 0.327 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.241 | 0.319 | 0.340 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 47 | 174 | 38 | 0.218 | 10 | 20 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.173 | 0.310 | 0.326 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 33 | 127 | 35 | 0.276 | 7 | 18 | 0.372 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.248 | 0.332 | 0.375 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 30 | 111 | 33 | 0.297 | 1 | 13 | 0.376 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.344 | 0.363 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 47 | 173 | 40 | 0.231 | 4 | 26 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.342 | 0.383 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 46 | 158 | 30 | 0.190 | 7 | 25 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.174 | 0.271 | 0.321 | OK |
| Miguel Amaya | DH | 21 | 68 | 17 | 0.250 | 3 | 9 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.292 | 0.373 | OK |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 48 | 177 | 41 | 0.232 | 5 | 20 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.168 | 0.232 | 0.294 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Harrison | Starter | 8 | 38.2 | 2.12 | 1.204 | 11.3 | 48 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 93 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 20 | 16.7 | 4.85 | 1.257 | 10.2 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 22 | 26.4 | 3.07 | 1.629 | 15.7 | 46 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 17 | 17.0 | 3.18 | 1.059 | 11.6 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DL Hall | Middle Reliever | 19 | 18.3 | 1.97 | 1.421 | 11.8 | 24 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Edward Cabrera | Starter | 9 | 49.6 | 4.17 | 1.351 | 8.2 | 45 | 5.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 104 | 5.2 | 2 | 5 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 10 | 8.3 | 2.17 | 1.325 | 9.8 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Phil Maton | Middle Reliever | 15 | 11.0 | 10.64 | 2.000 | 13.9 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 21 | 18.1 | 3.48 | 1.657 | 11.4 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Hoby Milner | Middle Reliever | 21 | 18.4 | 2.45 | 1.141 | 4.4 | 9 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Rolison | Middle Reliever | 11 | 10.7 | 5.05 | 1.682 | 10.9 | 13 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
MIL wins 6-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| WAS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.101; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 40 | 149 | 40 | 0.268 | 3 | 17 | 0.327 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.309 | 0.356 | 0.407 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 48 | 196 | 44 | 0.224 | 5 | 25 | 0.277 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.230 | 0.288 | 0.426 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 32 | 122 | 35 | 0.287 | 7 | 17 | 0.385 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.303 | 0.402 | 0.539 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | 1B | 37 | 137 | 32 | 0.234 | 6 | 22 | 0.274 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.229 | 0.263 | 0.375 | OK |
| MJ Melendez | DH | 19 | 52 | 14 | 0.269 | 2 | 6 | 0.367 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.208 | 0.302 | 0.365 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 38 | 137 | 33 | 0.241 | 3 | 19 | 0.300 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.236 | 0.293 | 0.388 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 48 | 174 | 40 | 0.230 | 3 | 18 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.271 | 0.311 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 7 | 23 | 7 | 0.304 | 1 | 4 | 0.467 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.399 | 0.430 | OK |
| Hayden Senger | C | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.175 | 0.188 | 0.254 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 33 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0.242 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | DH | 49 | 189 | 49 | 0.259 | 13 | 34 | 0.399 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.303 | 0.417 | 0.558 | OK |
| Curtis Mead | 3B | 18 | 65 | 18 | 0.277 | 3 | 11 | 0.397 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.267 | 0.376 | 0.456 | OK |
| Andrés Chaparro | 1B | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0.222 | 0 | 0 | 0.222 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.244 | 0.405 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 47 | 175 | 52 | 0.297 | 9 | 39 | 0.388 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.357 | 0.463 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | RF | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.250 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.237 | 0.314 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 48 | 194 | 51 | 0.263 | 7 | 25 | 0.322 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.305 | 0.439 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 41 | 154 | 34 | 0.221 | 5 | 20 | 0.273 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.264 | 0.392 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | 2B | 41 | 134 | 27 | 0.201 | 0 | 14 | 0.312 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.162 | 0.273 | 0.195 | OK |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 25 | 85 | 20 | 0.235 | 4 | 19 | 0.256 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.245 | 0.486 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 33 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0.212 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zach Pop | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 52 | 3.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.5 | 3.72 | 1.310 | 14.9 | 24 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 19 | 18.7 | 3.85 | 1.230 | 10.1 | 21 | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 20 | 15.3 | 1.76 | 1.373 | 12.4 | 21 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zack Littell | Starter | 9 | 40.4 | 6.24 | 1.535 | 4.5 | 20 | 4.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 83 | 4.0 | 6 | 6 |
| Gus Varland | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.4 | 4.68 | 1.753 | 10.5 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| PJ Poulin | Middle Reliever | 23 | 17.7 | 3.56 | 1.808 | 8.1 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 15 | 29.2 | 3.39 | 1.199 | 8.0 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard Lovelady | Middle Reliever | 13 | 11.0 | 2.45 | 2.000 | 11.5 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
NYM wins 8-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
Quality edge: -1.1341; margin adjustment: -0.4763; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carlos Cortes | RF | 29 | 97 | 33 | 0.340 | 4 | 16 | 0.404 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.317 | 0.391 | 0.483 | OK |
| Shea Langeliers | C | 43 | 177 | 58 | 0.328 | 12 | 27 | 0.394 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.310 | 0.383 | 0.496 | OK |
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 47 | 170 | 47 | 0.276 | 8 | 34 | 0.431 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.432 | 0.535 | OK |
| Brent Rooker | DH | 31 | 119 | 24 | 0.202 | 7 | 24 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.307 | 0.434 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 44 | 168 | 32 | 0.190 | 5 | 20 | 0.275 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.164 | 0.243 | 0.315 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 25 | 90 | 24 | 0.267 | 6 | 16 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.293 | 0.452 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 39 | 137 | 40 | 0.292 | 1 | 14 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.254 | 0.312 | 0.344 | OK |
| Henry Bolte | CF | 6 | 22 | 7 | 0.318 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.258 | 0.318 | OK |
| Darell Hernaiz | SS | 23 | 72 | 19 | 0.264 | 1 | 6 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.330 | 0.318 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0.235 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 49 | 191 | 43 | 0.225 | 8 | 22 | 0.338 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.221 | 0.321 | 0.413 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 48 | 170 | 40 | 0.235 | 12 | 25 | 0.398 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.191 | 0.345 | 0.396 | OK |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | 44 | 174 | 44 | 0.253 | 3 | 20 | 0.305 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.272 | 0.312 | OK |
| Jorge Soler | DH | 45 | 164 | 35 | 0.213 | 8 | 28 | 0.305 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.263 | 0.333 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 3B | 21 | 80 | 20 | 0.250 | 2 | 12 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.196 | 0.273 | 0.334 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 49 | 188 | 47 | 0.250 | 6 | 27 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.182 | 0.219 | 0.303 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | 2B | 31 | 109 | 28 | 0.257 | 5 | 11 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.248 | 0.326 | OK |
| Logan O'Hoppe | C | 28 | 93 | 19 | 0.204 | 1 | 8 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.175 | 0.252 | 0.232 | OK |
| Josh Lowe | LF | 33 | 108 | 18 | 0.167 | 4 | 10 | 0.216 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.164 | 0.208 | 0.236 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Aaron Civale | Starter | 9 | 45.5 | 2.77 | 1.429 | 6.9 | 35 | 5.2 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 103 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 25 | 17.4 | 4.14 | 2.184 | 12.9 | 25 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Joel Kuhnel | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.4 | 3.12 | 1.250 | 6.2 | 10 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.3 | 1.87 | 0.829 | 9.3 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | Middle Reliever | 21 | 17.1 | 7.89 | 1.871 | 11.6 | 22 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Kochanowicz | Starter | 9 | 49.7 | 4.71 | 1.408 | 6.2 | 34 | 5.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 104 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 16 | 19.9 | 4.97 | 1.357 | 13.1 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 16 | 19.3 | 3.26 | 1.140 | 11.2 | 24 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 4 | 3.2 | 5.62 | 1.250 | 16.9 | 6 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| José Fermin | Middle Reliever | 10 | 7.7 | 4.68 | 1.299 | 10.5 | 9 | 0.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
OAK wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | x | 6 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.0412; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 39 | 153 | 49 | 0.320 | 0 | 19 | 0.381 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.292 | 0.346 | 0.354 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 41 | 161 | 41 | 0.255 | 12 | 31 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.324 | 0.519 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 46 | 167 | 43 | 0.257 | 4 | 28 | 0.390 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.358 | 0.362 | OK |
| Oneil Cruz | DH | 45 | 192 | 51 | 0.266 | 10 | 33 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.323 | 0.412 | OK |
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 36 | 120 | 33 | 0.275 | 2 | 17 | 0.390 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.386 | 0.404 | OK |
| Konnor Griffin | SS | 40 | 152 | 40 | 0.263 | 3 | 19 | 0.323 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.294 | 0.367 | OK |
| Endy Rodríguez | C | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0.286 | 0 | 2 | 0.444 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.375 | 0.411 | OK |
| Jhostynxon Garcia | CF | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.250 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.200 | 0.210 | 0.279 | OK |
| Jake Mangum | RF | 17 | 66 | 17 | 0.258 | 0 | 1 | 0.319 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.216 | 0.281 | 0.272 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 45 | 174 | 42 | 0.241 | 9 | 24 | 0.365 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.337 | 0.414 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | C | 47 | 175 | 46 | 0.263 | 5 | 23 | 0.391 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.268 | 0.359 | 0.425 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 44 | 178 | 51 | 0.287 | 7 | 34 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.320 | 0.372 | 0.503 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 45 | 175 | 53 | 0.303 | 13 | 34 | 0.372 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.289 | 0.351 | 0.554 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | DH | 40 | 145 | 34 | 0.234 | 5 | 24 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.251 | 0.347 | 0.385 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 40 | 153 | 39 | 0.255 | 1 | 17 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.293 | 0.342 | OK |
| César Prieto | 3B | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.185 | 0.197 | 0.270 | |
| Nathan Church | LF | 37 | 138 | 34 | 0.246 | 4 | 15 | 0.276 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.255 | 0.319 | OK |
| Victor Scott II | CF | 39 | 112 | 21 | 0.188 | 2 | 7 | 0.246 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.189 | 0.238 | 0.294 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 28 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0.214 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Carmen Mlodzinski | Starter | 9 | 42.9 | 4.62 | 1.515 | 9.0 | 43 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 84 | 5.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 23 | 22.4 | 2.41 | 0.848 | 11.7 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.4 | 3.91 | 1.304 | 5.9 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.2 | 3.55 | 1.447 | 15.4 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael McGreevy | Starter | 9 | 50.4 | 2.14 | 0.893 | 6.4 | 36 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 99 | 6.0 | 8 | 2 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 23 | 21.6 | 3.33 | 1.065 | 10.4 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 23 | 19.0 | 3.79 | 1.474 | 9.9 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 22 | 17.4 | 4.14 | 1.437 | 8.8 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
STL wins 6-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| ARI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | x | 5 | 11 |
Quality edge: 0.952; margin adjustment: 0.3998; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Will Brennan | RF | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.172 | 0.184 | 0.249 | |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 46 | 181 | 58 | 0.320 | 2 | 17 | 0.360 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.329 | 0.381 | 0.506 | OK |
| Casey Schmitt | LF | 40 | 152 | 45 | 0.296 | 8 | 21 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.282 | 0.308 | 0.496 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 49 | 187 | 46 | 0.246 | 6 | 20 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.293 | 0.419 | OK |
| Willy Adames | SS | 48 | 192 | 46 | 0.240 | 5 | 15 | 0.277 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.316 | 0.478 | OK |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 47 | 181 | 40 | 0.221 | 1 | 16 | 0.299 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.264 | 0.290 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 8 | 27 | 4 | 0.148 | 1 | 1 | 0.207 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.177 | 0.232 | 0.295 | OK |
| Daniel Susac | C | 8 | 30 | 14 | 0.467 | 0 | 7 | 0.515 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.336 | 0.462 | OK |
| Drew Gilbert | CF | 24 | 80 | 17 | 0.212 | 2 | 7 | 0.276 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.158 | 0.215 | 0.266 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 42 | 175 | 39 | 0.223 | 6 | 20 | 0.271 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.248 | 0.298 | 0.412 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 38 | 158 | 52 | 0.329 | 7 | 28 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.323 | 0.341 | 0.473 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 44 | 153 | 34 | 0.222 | 2 | 12 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.230 | 0.350 | 0.343 | OK |
| Adrian Del Castillo | C | 25 | 92 | 17 | 0.185 | 2 | 14 | 0.232 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.182 | 0.234 | 0.274 | OK |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DH | 22 | 83 | 20 | 0.241 | 1 | 9 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.313 | 0.371 | OK |
| Jose Fernandez | 3B | 31 | 115 | 34 | 0.296 | 3 | 14 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.247 | 0.279 | 0.337 | OK |
| Jorge Barrosa | RF | 18 | 62 | 13 | 0.210 | 0 | 5 | 0.258 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 0.233 | 0.379 | OK |
| Tim Tawa | LF | 11 | 33 | 4 | 0.121 | 0 | 2 | 0.231 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.148 | 0.255 | 0.243 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 10 | 33 | 9 | 0.273 | 0 | 6 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.316 | 0.384 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0.314 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tyler Mahle | Starter | 9 | 45.5 | 5.74 | 1.604 | 9.5 | 48 | 4.2 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 94 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.3 | 2.95 | 1.311 | 10.8 | 22 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.4 | 2.32 | 0.876 | 7.9 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Joel Peguero | Middle Reliever | 6 | 5.4 | 1.67 | 0.741 | 1.7 | 1 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Merrill Kelly | Starter | 6 | 34.3 | 6.03 | 1.574 | 6.0 | 23 | 4.2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 96 | 4.2 | 4 | 3 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 7.5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.476 | 8.6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
ARI wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| COL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 7 | 10 |
Quality edge: -1.0468; margin adjustment: -0.4396; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Andrew McCutchen | DH | 12 | 34 | 9 | 0.265 | 1 | 3 | 0.324 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.260 | 0.318 | 0.388 | OK |
| Justin Foscue | 2B | 7 | 24 | 7 | 0.292 | 2 | 5 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.281 | 0.338 | 0.543 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 46 | 180 | 49 | 0.272 | 5 | 16 | 0.353 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.245 | 0.315 | 0.406 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 44 | 170 | 51 | 0.300 | 5 | 20 | 0.355 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.309 | 0.401 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | SS | 34 | 118 | 35 | 0.297 | 3 | 19 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.287 | 0.345 | 0.452 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 45 | 174 | 41 | 0.236 | 7 | 29 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.311 | 0.430 | OK |
| Michael Helman | CF | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.204 | 0.217 | 0.286 | OK |
| Kyle Higashioka | C | 19 | 68 | 13 | 0.191 | 2 | 8 | 0.257 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.188 | 0.248 | 0.298 | OK |
| Sam Haggerty | LF | 8 | 17 | 3 | 0.176 | 0 | 0 | 0.222 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.154 | 0.206 | 0.210 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0.235 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | CF | 32 | 96 | 27 | 0.281 | 2 | 16 | 0.330 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.268 | 0.308 | 0.427 | OK |
| Mickey Moniak | DH | 36 | 137 | 41 | 0.299 | 12 | 27 | 0.358 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.228 | 0.283 | 0.472 | OK |
| Tyler Freeman | RF | 20 | 77 | 18 | 0.234 | 2 | 9 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.210 | 0.240 | 0.326 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 45 | 168 | 45 | 0.268 | 5 | 23 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.306 | 0.358 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | LF | 37 | 135 | 44 | 0.326 | 2 | 19 | 0.381 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.287 | 0.340 | 0.411 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 43 | 155 | 32 | 0.206 | 1 | 13 | 0.266 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.205 | 0.266 | 0.298 | OK |
| Edouard Julien | 2B | 33 | 116 | 27 | 0.233 | 2 | 12 | 0.315 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.152 | 0.233 | 0.227 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 41 | 127 | 29 | 0.228 | 1 | 11 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.309 | 0.291 | OK |
| Brett Sullivan | C | 19 | 66 | 13 | 0.197 | 0 | 7 | 0.239 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.139 | 0.181 | 0.230 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Leiter | Starter | 9 | 47.8 | 4.52 | 1.402 | 10.4 | 55 | 5.2 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 99 | 5.2 | 5 | 7 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 17 | 20.5 | 0.88 | 0.439 | 7.5 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 17 | 19.3 | 1.87 | 0.777 | 4.2 | 9 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cole Winn | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.9 | 5.33 | 1.598 | 12.2 | 23 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.2 | 2.34 | 1.510 | 8.0 | 17 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Freeland | Starter | 7 | 32.5 | 7.48 | 1.723 | 8.6 | 31 | 4.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 85 | 4.2 | 4 | 3 |
| Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.6 | 7.05 | 2.108 | 8.7 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 13 | 25.3 | 1.42 | 0.909 | 8.9 | 25 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 19 | 20.2 | 4.46 | 1.683 | 12.0 | 27 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
COL wins 7-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | x | 4 | 7 |
Quality edge: 1.9615; margin adjustment: 0.8238; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| George Springer | DH | 28 | 110 | 21 | 0.191 | 3 | 8 | 0.270 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.185 | 0.255 | 0.316 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 47 | 174 | 49 | 0.282 | 3 | 21 | 0.371 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.223 | 0.307 | 0.337 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 42 | 158 | 43 | 0.272 | 5 | 15 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.315 | 0.373 | 0.462 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 46 | 171 | 39 | 0.228 | 10 | 27 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.278 | 0.316 | OK |
| Yohendrick Pinango | LF | 14 | 46 | 15 | 0.326 | 1 | 6 | 0.367 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.255 | 0.300 | 0.363 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 45 | 179 | 51 | 0.285 | 3 | 16 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.239 | 0.273 | 0.387 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | RF | 35 | 122 | 33 | 0.270 | 5 | 18 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.289 | 0.367 | OK |
| Brandon Valenzuela | C | 22 | 69 | 17 | 0.246 | 4 | 10 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.292 | 0.337 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 41 | 149 | 37 | 0.248 | 5 | 26 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 0.221 | 0.330 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ben Rice | DH | 40 | 151 | 44 | 0.291 | 15 | 31 | 0.393 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.352 | 0.610 | OK |
| Aaron Judge | RF | 49 | 176 | 46 | 0.261 | 16 | 30 | 0.395 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.372 | 0.462 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 47 | 171 | 46 | 0.269 | 6 | 30 | 0.379 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.252 | 0.371 | 0.450 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 45 | 169 | 40 | 0.237 | 5 | 18 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.367 | 0.448 | OK |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 17 | 62 | 18 | 0.290 | 5 | 11 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.304 | 0.383 | 0.640 | OK |
| Trent Grisham | CF | 40 | 145 | 24 | 0.166 | 4 | 22 | 0.297 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.159 | 0.289 | 0.272 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 33 | 112 | 19 | 0.170 | 3 | 12 | 0.218 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.153 | 0.198 | 0.276 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | SS | 6 | 17 | 5 | 0.294 | 0 | 3 | 0.500 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.255 | 0.455 | 0.411 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 35 | 109 | 19 | 0.174 | 3 | 5 | 0.295 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.144 | 0.261 | 0.209 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trey Yesavage | Starter | 4 | 19.1 | 1.41 | 1.309 | 9.9 | 21 | 5.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 95 | 5.1 | 7 | 2 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 23 | 22.1 | 0.41 | 1.267 | 14.3 | 35 | 1.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 22 | 19.7 | 1.83 | 1.218 | 6.4 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cam Schlittler | Starter | 10 | 58.6 | 1.38 | 0.802 | 10.4 | 68 | 6.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 103 | 6.1 | 6 | 1 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.6 | 5.51 | 1.735 | 11.5 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 23 | 14.4 | 3.12 | 1.875 | 17.5 | 28 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 23 | 15.7 | 1.72 | 1.083 | 4.6 | 8 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
NYY wins 4-2