MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

May 20, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ATL @ MIA3 - 44 - 5MIAMIAMIA wins 5-451%enhanced_ml
BAL @ TB4 - 53 - 4TBTBTB wins 4-355%enhanced_ml
BOS @ KC2 - 13 - 1BOSBOSBOS wins 3-154%enhanced_ml
CHW @ SEA4 - 53 - 5SEASEASEA wins 5-351%enhanced_ml
CIN @ PHI5 - 46 - 5CINCINCIN wins 6-551%enhanced_ml
CLE @ DET5 - 45 - 4CLECLECLE wins 5-455%enhanced_ml
HOU @ MIN3 - 42 - 4MINMINMIN wins 4-254%enhanced_ml
LAD @ SD2 - 32 - 3SDSDSD wins 3-251%enhanced_ml
MIL @ CHC4 - 36 - 3MILMILMIL wins 6-355%enhanced_ml
NYM @ WAS6 - 78 - 5WASNYMNYM wins 8-551%enhanced_ml
OAK @ LAA4 - 34 - 3OAKOAKOAK wins 4-354%enhanced_ml
PIT @ STL4 - 62 - 6STLSTLSTL wins 6-259%enhanced_ml
SF @ ARI3 - 53 - 5ARIARIARI wins 5-357%enhanced_ml
TEX @ COL4 - 53 - 7COLCOLCOL wins 7-351%enhanced_ml
TOR @ NYY3 - 42 - 4NYYNYYNYY wins 4-255%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

ATL 33-16 (5.27 RPG / 3.43 RA)
4 - 5
MIA 22-27 (4.43 RPG / 4.53 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 5-4 TARGET: ATL 3 - 4 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ATL00300001048
MIA00010000457

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff2
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

ATL Season Quality

Record33-16
Win%0.673
Run Diff90
RD/Game1.837

MIA Season Quality

Record22-27
Win%0.449
Run Diff-5
RD/Game-0.102

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.2755; margin adjustment: -0.9557; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 3513133 0.252 290.367 53000 20 0.000 0.270 0.377 0.407 OK
Michael Harris IICF 4015343 0.281 8220.306 55212 01 0.400 0.248 0.278 0.450 OK
Matt Olson1B 4918753 0.283 14410.364 55000 03 0.000 0.258 0.345 0.485 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 4918851 0.271 8260.329 44111 00 0.250 0.214 0.277 0.333 OK
Dominic SmithDH 238129 0.358 4180.384 43211 11 0.667 0.321 0.348 0.451 OK
Mauricio DubónSS 4617244 0.256 3260.312 44110 00 0.250 0.229 0.278 0.361 OK
Austin Riley3B 4818339 0.213 7280.282 43000 10 0.000 0.196 0.248 0.362 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 3210924 0.220 2100.292 44100 00 0.250 0.229 0.300 0.404 OK
Sandy LeónC 4102 0.200 000.200 44100 01 0.250 0.204 0.217 0.282 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39358 44 46 0.229

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 4818157 0.315 6190.398 54211 11 0.500 0.288 0.365 0.495 OK
Otto LopezSS 4718965 0.344 4210.376 44000 03 0.000 0.314 0.343 0.440 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 207212 0.167 090.241 43000 11 0.000 0.178 0.244 0.230 OK
Connor Norby1B 4214132 0.227 4140.333 43000 11 0.000 0.208 0.296 0.352 OK
Esteury RuizCF 8254 0.160 240.185 44214 01 0.500 0.154 0.192 0.324 OK
Leo Jiménez3B 13399 0.231 010.311 44000 01 0.000 0.196 0.266 0.259 OK
Christopher MorelDH 13447 0.159 010.213 43110 10 0.333 0.156 0.193 0.241 OK
Liam HicksC 3814042 0.300 9420.362 44110 00 0.250 0.223 0.283 0.357 OK
Javier SanojaRF 258923 0.258 1150.305 44110 00 0.250 0.178 0.226 0.308 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37337 55 48 0.212

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris SaleStarter 955.01.96 0.90910.564 6.221127107 6.2 7 1
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1414.20.00 0.77511.418 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 2019.40.46 0.9288.819 0.10000017 0.1 0 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 2320.80.87 0.57712.128 0.04442020 0.0 0 4

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Janson JunkStarter 948.64.26 1.2766.937 5.26331393 5.2 3 3
Tyler PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1425.61.41 1.3678.825 1.10000022 1.1 0 0
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 119.39.68 1.61314.515 1.01111120 1.0 1 1
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 2017.04.76 1.88211.121 1.01002224 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 5-4


Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

BAL 21-29 (4.3 RPG / 5.48 RA)
3 - 4
TB 33-15 (4.83 RPG / 4.0 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 4-3 TARGET: BAL 4 - 5 TB (TB) Confidence: 55.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BAL00010100137
TB00001300x48

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff-19
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.0
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff19
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

BAL Season Quality

Record21-28
Win%0.429
Run Diff-57
RD/Game-1.163

TB Season Quality

Record32-15
Win%0.681
Run Diff38
RD/Game0.809

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.3502; margin adjustment: 0.9871; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 4817245 0.262 2140.416 44000 02 0.000 0.236 0.385 0.382 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 4820443 0.211 10240.264 44100 00 0.250 0.231 0.277 0.408 OK
Adley RutschmanC 3011831 0.263 7240.312 44100 01 0.250 0.225 0.272 0.464 OK
Pete Alonso1B 4918541 0.222 8260.306 43000 12 0.000 0.211 0.285 0.353 OK
Tyler O'NeillRF 216711 0.164 270.309 44311 00 0.750 0.154 0.273 0.267 OK
Samuel BasalloDH 3412733 0.260 6150.319 44111 01 0.250 0.241 0.298 0.424 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 3914537 0.255 6250.272 44111 01 0.250 0.226 0.244 0.346 OK
Weston Wilson3B 11288 0.286 110.412 43000 10 0.000 0.203 0.313 0.303 OK
Blaze AlexanderCF 289021 0.233 050.296 44000 00 0.000 0.224 0.281 0.282 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 33 27 0.206

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 4317449 0.282 080.317 44111 00 0.250 0.268 0.312 0.339 OK
Junior Caminero3B 4617847 0.264 13270.356 44100 00 0.250 0.280 0.376 0.545 OK
Jonathan ArandaDH 4416443 0.262 8350.364 44100 01 0.250 0.226 0.331 0.366 OK
Ryan Vilade1B 164817 0.354 2120.407 44100 02 0.250 0.328 0.390 0.548 OK
Richie Palacios2B 246917 0.246 190.369 44211 01 0.500 0.249 0.351 0.343 OK
Jonny DeLucaRF 259526 0.274 1120.310 43111 11 0.333 0.266 0.303 0.390 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 3713724 0.175 3140.240 44000 01 0.000 0.244 0.298 0.360 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 194511 0.244 040.340 32100 10 0.500 0.205 0.291 0.284 OK
Taylor WallsSS 3510924 0.220 0140.320 32011 00 0.000 0.218 0.309 0.348 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34318 44 26 0.258

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane BazStarter 949.05.51 1.5927.742 4.284422103 4.2 2 4
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2218.70.96 0.58812.025 2.00000225 2.0 2 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 2019.92.71 1.00511.826 1.10000217 1.1 2 0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Steven MatzStarter 737.13.88 1.1056.828 5.261116105 5.2 6 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 2219.42.78 1.08211.124 1.10000119 1.1 1 0
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 117.46.08 2.29715.813 0.20111014 0.2 0 1
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 2219.62.76 0.8677.817 1.11110020 1.1 0 1

Game Summary

TB wins 4-3


Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals

BOS 21-27 (3.69 RPG / 3.94 RA)
3 - 1
KC 20-29 (3.9 RPG / 4.49 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 3-1 TARGET: BOS 2 - 1 KC (BOS) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BOS02100000034
KC00000100015

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs2.4
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff-1
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

KC Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.0
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-14
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

BOS Season Quality

Record21-27
Win%0.438
Run Diff-12
RD/Game-0.250

KC Season Quality

Record20-29
Win%0.408
Run Diff-29
RD/Game-0.592

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3858; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 4116732 0.192 5220.265 44000 00 0.000 0.210 0.285 0.375 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 217117 0.239 050.337 43000 10 0.000 0.226 0.302 0.323 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 4718053 0.294 6190.363 44210 01 0.500 0.258 0.323 0.383 OK
Willson Contreras1B 4516342 0.258 10300.358 43000 13 0.000 0.245 0.319 0.463 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 4114942 0.282 3150.352 43111 10 0.333 0.269 0.319 0.407 OK
Nick Sogard3B 3113 0.273 010.333 44112 02 0.250 0.225 0.288 0.369 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 3612025 0.208 290.278 44000 01 0.000 0.179 0.240 0.291 OK
Carlos NarváezC 299120 0.220 230.290 33000 01 0.000 0.201 0.265 0.308 OK
Isiah Kiner-FalefaSS 144010 0.250 020.318 33000 00 0.000 0.231 0.299 0.273 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 33 38 0.129

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 4618649 0.263 3180.325 43100 11 0.333 0.229 0.291 0.341 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 4919358 0.301 7230.372 44000 01 0.000 0.271 0.342 0.441 OK
Salvador Perez1B 4718136 0.199 7200.249 44100 00 0.250 0.191 0.240 0.345 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 3812828 0.219 3150.338 44111 00 0.250 0.182 0.289 0.264 OK
Nick Loftin2B 14427 0.167 070.294 44100 02 0.250 0.157 0.258 0.234 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 3813533 0.244 480.315 43000 01 0.000 0.220 0.278 0.391 OK
Starling MarteDH 134314 0.326 020.375 44100 00 0.250 0.272 0.323 0.366 OK
Elias DíazC 6184 0.222 130.263 44000 02 0.000 0.172 0.219 0.382 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 3711833 0.280 3100.336 32000 10 0.000 0.231 0.272 0.359 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 11 27 0.156

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Connelly EarlyStarter 946.53.29 1.2268.745 5.24110589 5.2 5 1
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1716.20.56 0.86412.222 1.11002021 1.1 0 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 1919.12.83 1.04711.324 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 97.30.00 0.82213.611 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael WachaStarter 957.12.84 0.9987.447 6.133335101 6.1 5 3
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 2018.43.42 1.5228.317 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Nick MearsMiddle Reliever 1915.83.42 1.4568.014 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 1917.92.01 0.89413.126 0.21000114 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 3-1


Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners

CHW 25-24 (4.45 RPG / 4.69 RA)
3 - 5
SEA 24-27 (4.12 RPG / 3.9 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 5-3 TARGET: CHW 4 - 5 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CHW10100100039
SEA00104000x511

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff4
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CHW Season Quality

Record24-23
Win%0.511
Run Diff-12
RD/Game-0.255

SEA Season Quality

Record23-26
Win%0.469
Run Diff11
RD/Game0.224

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4179; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 279425 0.266 190.364 55100 02 0.200 0.268 0.316 0.378 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 4616439 0.238 17320.382 55100 02 0.200 0.257 0.398 0.539 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 3512732 0.252 3170.297 54111 11 0.250 0.273 0.328 0.454 OK
Colson Montgomery3B 4516838 0.226 13310.323 54000 12 0.000 0.221 0.291 0.494 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 4416644 0.265 3110.337 44211 01 0.500 0.221 0.300 0.322 OK
Jarred KelenicRF 144310 0.233 140.283 44000 01 0.000 0.198 0.249 0.309 OK
Tristan PetersCF 3410326 0.252 2110.319 44100 01 0.250 0.220 0.293 0.400 OK
Drew RomoC 13428 0.190 470.320 43111 10 0.333 0.184 0.286 0.393 OK
Luisangel AcuñaSS 257712 0.156 030.224 43200 10 0.667 0.138 0.205 0.177 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40369 33 410 0.250

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Cole Young2B 5017542 0.240 3260.316 55200 00 0.400 0.206 0.269 0.299 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 5019950 0.251 8210.317 54200 11 0.500 0.214 0.276 0.386 OK
Josh Naylor1B 4718447 0.255 5220.324 44211 00 0.500 0.266 0.337 0.349 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 5018054 0.300 4190.386 44011 00 0.000 0.294 0.360 0.440 OK
Luke RaleyRF 3511231 0.277 9250.341 43111 11 0.333 0.276 0.317 0.577 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 328923 0.258 4170.333 43211 11 0.667 0.212 0.298 0.372 OK
Patrick Wisdom3B 130 0.000 010.000 44111 03 0.250 0.198 0.210 0.291
Colt EmersonSS 381 0.125 130.300 44100 01 0.250 0.183 0.266 0.339 OK
Jhonny PeredaC 5153 0.200 000.250 44000 03 0.000 0.188 0.199 0.252 OK
TEAM TOTALS 383511 55 310 0.314

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sean BurkeStarter 947.44.18 1.2037.841 6.040021096 6.0 10 0
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 0.06440018 0.0 0 4
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.00001018 1.0 0 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 0.01110023 0.0 0 1
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 129.81.84 1.93913.815 1.00000018 1.0 0 0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emerson HancockStarter 953.23.05 1.0159.556 6.032247101 6.0 7 2
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 2017.55.14 1.42916.532 1.04110220 1.0 2 1
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 2316.83.21 1.6679.618 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Cooper CriswellMiddle Reliever 1718.42.93 1.0878.317 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Alex HoppeMiddle Reliever 78.46.43 1.54811.811 0.02000023 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-3


Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies

CIN 26-24 (4.42 RPG / 4.98 RA)
6 - 5
PHI 25-25 (4.18 RPG / 4.66 RA)
WINNER: CIN wins 6-5 TARGET: CIN 5 - 4 PHI (CIN) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CIN042000000610
PHI100000400510

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff7
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff25
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

CIN Season Quality

Record25-24
Win%0.510
Run Diff-33
RD/Game-0.673

PHI Season Quality

Record25-24
Win%0.510
Run Diff-19
RD/Game-0.388

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2857; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Matt McLainSS 4517137 0.216 5200.316 55212 00 0.400 0.218 0.307 0.384 OK
Elly De La CruzDH 4919558 0.297 11320.364 55111 01 0.200 0.294 0.360 0.519 OK
JJ BledayLF 217221 0.292 6200.402 54000 11 0.000 0.259 0.369 0.529 OK
Sal Stewart3B 4918446 0.250 11320.343 44000 00 0.000 0.252 0.353 0.440 OK
Spencer Steer2B 4616644 0.265 7180.335 44210 01 0.500 0.269 0.326 0.413 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 269024 0.267 6160.347 43110 10 0.333 0.224 0.304 0.404 OK
Blake DunnCF 5187 0.389 110.476 44111 02 0.250 0.269 0.365 0.437 OK
Will BensonRF 23639 0.143 120.270 44212 00 0.500 0.135 0.248 0.237 OK
P.J. HigginsC 4102 0.200 010.250 44100 01 0.250 0.165 0.237 0.231 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393710 66 26 0.270

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 4719947 0.236 5160.282 54110 12 0.250 0.243 0.286 0.378 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 4616935 0.207 3130.279 53111 01 0.333 0.165 0.227 0.250 OK
Bryce HarperDH 4817748 0.271 12300.366 55311 01 0.600 0.272 0.366 0.535 OK
Alec Bohm1B 4416336 0.221 4210.282 54213 11 0.500 0.284 0.338 0.457 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 2910022 0.220 180.295 55000 02 0.000 0.194 0.259 0.267 OK
Brandon MarshCF 4115851 0.323 4220.345 43000 10 0.000 0.264 0.292 0.378 OK
Edmundo Sosa3B 216914 0.203 190.233 44210 00 0.500 0.178 0.207 0.259 OK
Bryson Stott2B 3814031 0.221 5210.272 44100 01 0.250 0.218 0.269 0.432 OK
Otto KempLF 6191 0.053 000.053 44000 03 0.000 0.147 0.158 0.209 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413610 55 311 0.278

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew AbbottStarter 1049.74.35 1.5496.335 4.25221994 4.2 9 2
Graham AshcraftMiddle Reliever 2221.72.49 1.29010.425 1.24331237 1.2 2 3
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 2018.33.44 1.2579.820 1.20001025 1.2 0 0
Pierce JohnsonMiddle Reliever 2215.64.62 1.66711.019 1.01000017 1.0 0 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron NolaStarter 943.86.16 1.6219.546 4.29440290 4.2 2 4
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 1312.21.48 1.06615.521 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 2018.54.38 1.29711.724 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 2212.77.09 2.52016.323 0.21110116 0.2 1 1
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 1914.82.43 1.2847.312 0.20001013 0.2 0 0
Tanner BanksMiddle Reliever 1816.86.43 2.14311.822 0.2011113 0.2 1 1
Chase ShugartReliever 1415.81.71 1.01310.318 0.1000011 0.1 1 0

Game Summary

CIN wins 6-5


Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

CLE 28-22 (4.44 RPG / 4.04 RA)
5 - 4
DET 20-29 (3.94 RPG / 4.35 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 5-4 TARGET: CLE 5 - 4 DET (CLE) Confidence: 55.3% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
CLE003000000258
DET3000000001411

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff22
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak4W

DET Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs2.5
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-25
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak4L

CLE Season Quality

Record28-22
Win%0.560
Run Diff20
RD/Game0.400

DET Season Quality

Record20-29
Win%0.408
Run Diff-20
RD/Game-0.408

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0359; margin adjustment: -0.4351; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Angel MartínezLF 3714340 0.280 9240.327 55211 01 0.400 0.278 0.309 0.547 OK
José Ramírez3B 5018243 0.236 8220.367 55100 00 0.200 0.302 0.422 0.532 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 4216243 0.265 7300.349 55112 02 0.200 0.217 0.310 0.400 OK
Rhys Hoskins1B 309520 0.211 4160.355 54212 12 0.500 0.220 0.375 0.460 OK
Daniel Schneemann2B 3512130 0.248 4160.326 54110 11 0.250 0.194 0.277 0.317 OK
David FryRF 195714 0.246 380.348 54110 12 0.250 0.216 0.314 0.366 OK
Steven KwanCF 4516734 0.204 1110.332 44000 01 0.000 0.185 0.343 0.251 OK
Patrick BaileyC 4111 0.091 010.167 44000 01 0.000 0.133 0.193 0.187 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 4815644 0.282 4270.369 43000 10 0.000 0.271 0.354 0.422 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42388 55 410 0.211

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Colt Keith1B 3311532 0.278 040.320 55210 01 0.400 0.231 0.270 0.309 OK
Kevin McGonigleSS 4617651 0.290 2160.393 55210 00 0.400 0.258 0.353 0.365 OK
Dillon DinglerDH 3914936 0.242 8270.319 55100 01 0.200 0.223 0.293 0.389 OK
Riley GreeneLF 4817258 0.337 4240.436 55311 00 0.600 0.323 0.413 0.456 OK
Matt VierlingCF 3111124 0.216 3160.290 54213 01 0.500 0.203 0.279 0.401 OK
Gage Workman3B 4164 0.250 130.250 54100 00 0.250 0.210 0.219 0.435 OK
Zach McKinstryRF 237713 0.169 150.238 55000 02 0.000 0.157 0.225 0.220 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 15458 0.178 040.245 44000 01 0.000 0.166 0.232 0.286 OK
Jake RogersC 14416 0.146 040.213 44000 01 0.000 0.142 0.203 0.261 OK
TEAM TOTALS 434111 44 07 0.268

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner BibeeStarter 1050.64.27 1.3838.447 5.18330191 5.1 1 3
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2222.22.84 1.17113.834 1.12000023 1.1 0 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever 2416.72.16 1.07820.538 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Matt FestaMiddle Reliever 2116.16.15 1.49111.721 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Codi HeuerReliever 12.04.50 2.0009.02 1.01110220 1.0 2 1

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Framber ValdezStarter 1054.34.64 1.4187.545 5.17330791 5.1 7 3
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 1411.42.37 0.96514.218 1.20000021 1.2 0 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2019.80.91 1.4146.414 1.00003125 1.0 1 0
Burch SmithMiddle Reliever 1215.42.92 1.42911.119 1.10001121 1.1 1 0
Brant HurterMiddle Reliever 1918.04.00 1.3338.016 0.21220120 0.2 1 2

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)


Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins

HOU 20-31 (4.27 RPG / 5.37 RA)
2 - 4
MIN 23-27 (4.6 RPG / 4.62 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 4-2 TARGET: HOU 3 - 4 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 54.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
HOU00002000028
MIN01003000x48

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.1
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-24
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

HOU Season Quality

Record20-30
Win%0.400
Run Diff-53
RD/Game-1.060

MIN Season Quality

Record22-27
Win%0.449
Run Diff-4
RD/Game-0.082

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0518; margin adjustment: 0.4418; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 125013 0.260 010.309 55210 01 0.400 0.247 0.289 0.356 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 4315840 0.253 5200.344 55000 03 0.000 0.221 0.290 0.400 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 5018156 0.309 15310.419 44200 00 0.500 0.256 0.364 0.509 OK
Christian Walker1B 4917947 0.263 11310.335 44112 01 0.250 0.214 0.279 0.428 OK
Jake MeyersCF 114010 0.250 140.326 43000 12 0.000 0.236 0.301 0.372 OK
Zach DezenzoLF 9297 0.241 120.290 44100 01 0.250 0.218 0.268 0.376 OK
Brice Matthews2B 3210923 0.211 4120.256 43100 00 0.333 0.190 0.237 0.303 OK
Cam SmithRF 4415229 0.191 3150.291 44100 00 0.250 0.134 0.227 0.207 OK
Christian VázquezC 247820 0.256 3130.333 43000 10 0.000 0.171 0.259 0.297 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 22 28 0.229

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonDH 4117446 0.264 15230.321 43100 10 0.333 0.281 0.335 0.639 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 3110528 0.267 2120.384 43000 10 0.000 0.253 0.360 0.411 OK
Josh Bell1B 4416839 0.232 5280.293 44100 02 0.250 0.275 0.324 0.458 OK
Kody ClemensRF 3211228 0.250 4120.349 44112 01 0.250 0.278 0.342 0.457 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 4516639 0.235 1170.317 43000 11 0.000 0.235 0.313 0.323 OK
Victor CaratiniC 3110419 0.183 1140.291 43111 00 0.333 0.153 0.234 0.195 OK
Tristan Gray3B 217115 0.211 3140.250 44210 01 0.500 0.192 0.229 0.286 OK
Ryan KreidlerSS 8247 0.292 240.414 44111 02 0.250 0.264 0.386 0.399 OK
James OutmanCF 13439 0.209 030.227 33100 00 0.333 0.200 0.223 0.342 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35318 44 37 0.258

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mike BurrowsStarter 948.75.91 1.5818.546 4.28443596 4.2 5 4
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 1818.23.46 1.5938.417 1.10000019 1.1 0 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 1713.78.54 2.33613.821 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 1816.05.62 1.5009.016 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joe RyanStarter 1050.23.23 1.0169.352 5.28220695 5.2 6 2
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 1919.34.20 1.6068.418 1.10000114 1.1 1 0
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 1914.73.06 1.7698.614 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Luis GarcíaMiddle Reliever 88.26.59 1.4632.22 1.00001117 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

MIN wins 4-2


Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

LAD 30-19 (5.16 RPG / 3.24 RA)
2 - 3
SD 29-19 (4.17 RPG / 4.02 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 3-2 TARGET: LAD 2 - 3 SD (SD) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAD10010000027
SD00000030x34

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SD Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff2
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak4W

LAD Season Quality

Record29-19
Win%0.604
Run Diff93
RD/Game1.938

SD Season Quality

Record29-18
Win%0.617
Run Diff8
RD/Game0.170

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.748; margin adjustment: -0.7342; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 4416946 0.272 7250.399 55111 01 0.200 0.312 0.424 0.496 OK
Mookie BettsSS 145810 0.172 490.226 44200 00 0.500 0.197 0.238 0.398 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 4617746 0.260 6230.342 44100 00 0.250 0.218 0.310 0.438 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 4617243 0.250 4220.348 44000 00 0.000 0.226 0.328 0.353 OK
Andy PagesCF 4817953 0.296 10420.345 43211 10 0.667 0.235 0.288 0.411 OK
Max Muncy3B 4515641 0.263 12190.365 43000 10 0.000 0.226 0.333 0.447 OK
Will SmithC 3513433 0.246 4190.311 44100 02 0.250 0.207 0.279 0.325 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 4416042 0.262 5230.335 44000 02 0.000 0.248 0.313 0.396 OK
Hyeseong Kim2B 329726 0.268 1100.339 43000 01 0.000 0.215 0.297 0.285 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 22 26 0.206

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 4617742 0.237 0140.310 43110 10 0.333 0.212 0.284 0.261 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 3513240 0.303 5170.328 44110 00 0.250 0.281 0.305 0.541 OK
Gavin Sheets1B 3712230 0.246 7170.338 44100 00 0.250 0.290 0.393 0.640 OK
Manny Machado3B 4616530 0.182 7220.277 43000 10 0.000 0.159 0.253 0.316 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 4616942 0.249 6210.321 33000 01 0.000 0.211 0.281 0.294 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 4517636 0.205 4190.275 33000 01 0.000 0.155 0.224 0.246 OK
Nick CastellanosRF 258817 0.193 2160.226 32113 10 0.500 0.183 0.216 0.318 OK
Ramón LaureanoLF 4015033 0.220 5190.300 33000 00 0.000 0.176 0.259 0.290 OK
Freddy FerminC 268513 0.153 030.237 33000 00 0.000 0.135 0.200 0.196 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31284 33 32 0.143

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shohei OhtaniStarter 744.00.82 0.81810.250 5.22113295 5.2 2 1
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 2118.51.46 0.6499.720 2.12220029 2.1 0 2

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Randy VásquezStarter 949.42.73 1.1348.245 5.27221596 5.2 5 2
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 2221.50.84 0.88418.845 1.00000021 1.0 0 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 1714.51.24 1.0344.37 1.10001119 1.1 1 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 2120.55.71 1.41512.729 1.00000019 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

SD wins 3-2


Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

MIL 28-18 (5.04 RPG / 3.52 RA)
6 - 3
CHC 29-20 (5.02 RPG / 4.35 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 6-3 TARGET: MIL 4 - 3 CHC (MIL) Confidence: 55.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIL01130100069
CHC00003000037

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff18
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff-23
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

MIL Season Quality

Record28-18
Win%0.609
Run Diff70
RD/Game1.522

CHC Season Quality

Record29-20
Win%0.592
Run Diff33
RD/Game0.673

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8736; margin adjustment: -0.3669; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 135918 0.305 150.339 55313 00 0.600 0.286 0.321 0.442 OK
Brice Turang2B 4316147 0.292 7290.413 54211 11 0.500 0.282 0.400 0.483 OK
William ContrerasC 4317550 0.286 3270.357 55000 01 0.000 0.288 0.354 0.369 OK
Christian YelichDH 176719 0.284 290.342 54111 11 0.250 0.257 0.317 0.475 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 3411828 0.237 2240.350 53010 21 0.000 0.239 0.342 0.406 OK
Jake Bauers1B 3613741 0.299 7270.373 53111 20 0.333 0.318 0.386 0.530 OK
Sal FrelickRF 3914532 0.221 3130.289 54000 10 0.000 0.218 0.274 0.298 OK
Joey OrtizSS 309520 0.211 1110.294 54000 11 0.000 0.223 0.315 0.329 OK
David Hamilton3B 3410324 0.233 070.336 44210 01 0.500 0.205 0.306 0.239 OK
TEAM TOTALS 44369 66 86 0.250

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 4719250 0.260 4300.347 55110 00 0.200 0.234 0.322 0.329 OK
Alex Bregman3B 4719146 0.241 4150.327 55100 00 0.200 0.241 0.319 0.340 OK
Ian HappLF 4717438 0.218 10200.358 43110 12 0.333 0.173 0.310 0.326 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 3312735 0.276 7180.372 43213 10 0.667 0.248 0.332 0.375 OK
Carson KellyC 3011133 0.297 1130.376 43000 12 0.000 0.273 0.344 0.363 OK
Michael Busch1B 4717340 0.231 4260.357 44000 01 0.000 0.216 0.342 0.383 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 4615830 0.190 7250.296 44100 01 0.250 0.174 0.271 0.321 OK
Miguel AmayaDH 216817 0.250 390.346 43000 11 0.000 0.219 0.292 0.373 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 4817741 0.232 5200.310 44100 01 0.250 0.168 0.232 0.294 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 33 48 0.206

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle HarrisonStarter 838.22.12 1.20411.348 5.06223693 5.0 6 2
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 2016.74.85 1.25710.219 1.01111220 1.0 2 1
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 2226.43.07 1.62915.746 1.10000023 1.1 0 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 1717.03.18 1.05911.622 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
DL HallMiddle Reliever 1918.31.97 1.42111.824 0.20000021 0.2 0 0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Edward CabreraStarter 949.64.17 1.3518.245 5.275532104 5.2 2 5
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 108.32.17 1.3259.89 1.00002121 1.0 1 0
Phil MatonMiddle Reliever 1511.010.64 2.00013.917 1.0211218 1.0 1 1
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 2118.13.48 1.65711.423 1.00001119 1.0 1 0
Hoby MilnerMiddle Reliever 2118.42.45 1.1414.49 0.10000117 0.1 1 0
Ryan RolisonMiddle Reliever 1110.75.05 1.68210.913 0.00000018 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 6-3


New York Mets @ Washington Nationals

NYM 21-27 (4.12 RPG / 4.33 RA)
8 - 5
WAS 24-25 (5.53 RPG / 5.92 RA)
WINNER: NYM wins 8-5 TARGET: NYM 6 - 7 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYM00024200088
WAS10001003057

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs6.1
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff16
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs6.3
Avg Allowed7.3
Run Diff-10
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

NYM Season Quality

Record21-27
Win%0.438
Run Diff-10
RD/Game-0.208

WAS Season Quality

Record24-25
Win%0.490
Run Diff-19
RD/Game-0.388

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.101; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 4014940 0.268 3170.327 54011 01 0.000 0.309 0.356 0.407 OK
Bo BichetteSS 4819644 0.224 5250.277 55212 02 0.400 0.230 0.288 0.426 OK
Juan SotoLF 3212235 0.287 7170.385 53110 20 0.333 0.303 0.402 0.539 OK
Mark Vientos1B 3713732 0.234 6220.274 55213 01 0.400 0.229 0.263 0.375 OK
MJ MelendezDH 195214 0.269 260.367 43110 11 0.333 0.208 0.302 0.365 OK
Brett Baty3B 3813733 0.241 3190.300 43112 01 0.333 0.236 0.293 0.388 OK
Marcus Semien2B 4817440 0.230 3180.283 44000 01 0.000 0.218 0.271 0.311 OK
A.J. EwingCF 7237 0.304 140.467 42010 20 0.000 0.249 0.399 0.430 OK
Hayden SengerC 250 0.000 010.000 44110 01 0.250 0.175 0.188 0.254
TEAM TOTALS 40338 88 58 0.242

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodDH 4918949 0.259 13340.399 55212 00 0.400 0.303 0.417 0.558 OK
Curtis Mead3B 186518 0.277 3110.397 54110 10 0.250 0.267 0.376 0.456 OK
Andrés Chaparro1B 392 0.222 000.222 44111 00 0.250 0.233 0.244 0.405 OK
CJ AbramsSS 4717552 0.297 9390.388 43011 01 0.000 0.288 0.357 0.463 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 141 0.250 000.250 44100 00 0.250 0.227 0.237 0.314 OK
Daylen LileLF 4819451 0.263 7250.322 43000 10 0.000 0.250 0.305 0.439 OK
Jacob YoungCF 4115434 0.221 5200.273 43000 12 0.000 0.214 0.264 0.392 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 4113427 0.201 0140.312 43100 00 0.333 0.162 0.273 0.195 OK
Keibert RuizC 258520 0.235 4190.256 44111 01 0.250 0.222 0.245 0.486 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38337 55 34 0.212

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zach PopStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 3.02222452 3.0 4 2
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 1714.53.72 1.31014.924 2.01001032 2.0 0 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 1918.73.85 1.23010.121 2.04330036 2.0 0 3
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 2015.31.76 1.37312.421 2.00000025 2.0 0 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zack LittellStarter 940.46.24 1.5354.520 4.07663683 4.0 6 6
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 1915.44.68 1.75310.518 1.11222128 1.1 1 2
PJ PoulinMiddle Reliever 2317.73.56 1.8088.116 1.10000119 1.1 1 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1529.23.39 1.1998.026 1.10000025 1.1 0 0
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 1311.02.45 2.00011.514 1.00000016 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 8-5


Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

OAK 24-24 (4.48 RPG / 4.6 RA)
4 - 3
LAA 17-32 (3.96 RPG / 5.33 RA)
WINNER: OAK wins 4-3 TARGET: OAK 4 - 3 LAA (OAK) Confidence: 54.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
OAK00010010248
LAA000300000310

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs1.8
Avg Allowed6.3
Run Diff-45
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

OAK Season Quality

Record23-24
Win%0.489
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.298

LAA Season Quality

Record17-31
Win%0.354
Run Diff-59
RD/Game-1.229

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1341; margin adjustment: -0.4763; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CortesRF 299733 0.340 4160.404 54111 11 0.250 0.317 0.391 0.483 OK
Shea LangeliersC 4317758 0.328 12270.394 54111 11 0.250 0.310 0.383 0.496 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 4717047 0.276 8340.431 54000 12 0.000 0.291 0.432 0.535 OK
Brent RookerDH 3111924 0.202 7240.287 44100 00 0.250 0.223 0.307 0.434 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 4416832 0.190 5200.275 43000 11 0.000 0.164 0.243 0.315 OK
Zack Gelof3B 259024 0.267 6160.320 44200 01 0.500 0.246 0.293 0.452 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 3913740 0.292 1140.353 44311 01 0.750 0.254 0.312 0.344 OK
Henry BolteCF 6227 0.318 020.333 44000 00 0.000 0.224 0.258 0.318 OK
Darell HernaizSS 237219 0.264 160.346 43011 00 0.000 0.254 0.330 0.318 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39348 44 47 0.235

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 4919143 0.225 8220.338 54210 02 0.500 0.221 0.321 0.413 OK
Mike TroutCF 4817040 0.235 12250.398 55100 00 0.200 0.191 0.345 0.396 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 4417444 0.253 3200.305 54100 11 0.250 0.223 0.272 0.312 OK
Jorge SolerDH 4516435 0.213 8280.305 55000 02 0.000 0.187 0.263 0.333 OK
Vaughn Grissom3B 218020 0.250 2120.322 44100 00 0.250 0.196 0.273 0.334 OK
Jo AdellRF 4918847 0.250 6270.296 44211 02 0.500 0.182 0.219 0.303 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 3110928 0.257 5110.331 44100 00 0.250 0.202 0.248 0.326 OK
Logan O'HoppeC 289319 0.204 180.306 44212 02 0.500 0.175 0.252 0.232 OK
Josh LoweLF 3310818 0.167 4100.216 43000 10 0.000 0.164 0.208 0.236 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403710 33 29 0.270

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron CivaleStarter 945.52.77 1.4296.935 5.283325103 5.2 5 3
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 2517.44.14 2.18412.925 0.20000214 0.2 2 0
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 1814.43.12 1.2506.210 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 2119.31.87 0.8299.320 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 2117.17.89 1.87111.622 0.20000115 0.2 1 0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack KochanowiczStarter 949.74.71 1.4086.234 5.221144104 5.2 4 1
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 1619.94.97 1.35713.129 1.10000123 1.1 1 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 1619.33.26 1.14011.224 1.11110020 1.1 0 1
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 43.25.62 1.25016.96 0.21000217 0.2 2 0
José FerminMiddle Reliever 107.74.68 1.29910.59 0.04220016 0.0 0 2

Game Summary

OAK wins 4-3


Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals

PIT 24-24 (4.9 RPG / 4.58 RA)
2 - 6
STL 28-19 (4.62 RPG / 4.49 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 6-2 TARGET: PIT 4 - 6 STL (STL) Confidence: 58.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PIT02000000025
STL10200012x66

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

STL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

PIT Season Quality

Record24-24
Win%0.500
Run Diff15
RD/Game0.312

STL Season Quality

Record28-19
Win%0.596
Run Diff6
RD/Game0.128

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0412; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Gonzales3B 3915349 0.320 0190.381 44000 02 0.000 0.292 0.346 0.354 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 4116141 0.255 12310.349 44110 01 0.250 0.240 0.324 0.519 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 4616743 0.257 4280.390 44000 02 0.000 0.247 0.358 0.362 OK
Oneil CruzDH 4519251 0.266 10330.332 44100 00 0.250 0.262 0.323 0.412 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 3612033 0.275 2170.390 43000 12 0.000 0.279 0.386 0.404 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 4015240 0.263 3190.323 43000 12 0.000 0.248 0.294 0.367 OK
Endy RodríguezC 272 0.286 020.444 44100 01 0.250 0.221 0.375 0.411 OK
Jhostynxon GarciaCF 141 0.250 000.250 33100 01 0.333 0.200 0.210 0.279 OK
Jake MangumRF 176617 0.258 010.319 33112 02 0.333 0.216 0.281 0.272 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 22 213 0.156

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 4517442 0.241 9240.365 42000 20 0.000 0.238 0.337 0.414 OK
Iván HerreraC 4717546 0.263 5230.391 44211 02 0.500 0.268 0.359 0.425 OK
Alec Burleson1B 4417851 0.287 7340.348 44111 01 0.250 0.320 0.372 0.503 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 4517553 0.303 13340.372 43000 00 0.000 0.289 0.351 0.554 OK
Nolan GormanDH 4014534 0.234 5240.317 43113 01 0.333 0.251 0.347 0.385 OK
Masyn WinnSS 4015339 0.255 1170.324 44110 00 0.250 0.236 0.293 0.342 OK
César Prieto3B 260 0.000 000.000 33110 00 0.333 0.185 0.197 0.270
Nathan ChurchLF 3713834 0.246 4150.276 33000 01 0.000 0.220 0.255 0.319 OK
Victor Scott IICF 3911221 0.188 270.246 32011 00 0.000 0.189 0.238 0.294 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33286 66 25 0.214

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Carmen MlodzinskiStarter 942.94.62 1.5159.043 5.04332384 5.0 3 3
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2322.42.41 0.84811.729 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 2018.43.91 1.3045.912 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 1815.23.55 1.44715.426 1.01220216 1.0 2 2

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael McGreevyStarter 950.42.14 0.8936.436 6.03222899 6.0 8 2
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2321.63.33 1.06510.425 1.01000318 1.0 3 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2319.03.79 1.4749.921 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 2217.44.14 1.4378.817 1.01000117 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

STL wins 6-2


San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks

SF 20-30 (3.46 RPG / 4.5 RA)
3 - 5
ARI 25-23 (4.6 RPG / 4.65 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 5-3 TARGET: SF 3 - 5 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 57.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SF02100000037
ARI30010010x511

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff18
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

SF Season Quality

Record20-28
Win%0.417
Run Diff-47
RD/Game-0.979

ARI Season Quality

Record23-23
Win%0.500
Run Diff-7
RD/Game-0.152

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.952; margin adjustment: 0.3998; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Will BrennanRF 4110 0.000 000.000 55210 01 0.400 0.172 0.184 0.249
Luis Arraez2B 4618158 0.320 2170.360 55100 00 0.200 0.329 0.381 0.506 OK
Casey SchmittLF 4015245 0.296 8210.341 44111 00 0.250 0.282 0.308 0.496 OK
Rafael Devers1B 4918746 0.246 6200.292 44100 02 0.250 0.244 0.293 0.419 OK
Willy AdamesSS 4819246 0.240 5150.277 43000 12 0.000 0.279 0.316 0.478 OK
Matt Chapman3B 4718140 0.221 1160.299 42000 21 0.000 0.193 0.264 0.290 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 8274 0.148 110.207 44100 01 0.250 0.177 0.232 0.295 OK
Daniel SusacC 83014 0.467 070.515 44000 00 0.000 0.272 0.336 0.462 OK
Drew GilbertCF 248017 0.212 270.276 43112 11 0.333 0.158 0.215 0.266 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 33 48 0.206

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 4217539 0.223 6200.271 55210 00 0.400 0.248 0.298 0.412 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 3815852 0.329 7280.346 44100 00 0.250 0.323 0.341 0.473 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 4415334 0.222 2120.342 44212 01 0.500 0.230 0.350 0.343 OK
Adrian Del CastilloC 259217 0.185 2140.232 42111 11 0.500 0.182 0.234 0.274 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.DH 228320 0.241 190.304 44111 00 0.250 0.251 0.313 0.371 OK
Jose Fernandez3B 3111534 0.296 3140.331 44311 01 0.750 0.247 0.279 0.337 OK
Jorge BarrosaRF 186213 0.210 050.258 44000 01 0.000 0.192 0.233 0.379 OK
Tim TawaLF 11334 0.121 020.231 44100 01 0.250 0.148 0.255 0.243 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 10339 0.273 060.351 44000 02 0.000 0.233 0.316 0.384 OK
TEAM TOTALS 373511 55 17 0.314

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler MahleStarter 945.55.74 1.6049.548 4.210441594 4.2 5 4
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 2018.32.95 1.31110.822 0.20000019 0.2 0 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 2119.42.32 0.8767.917 1.01110116 1.0 1 1
Joel PegueroMiddle Reliever 65.41.67 0.7411.71 1.20000121 1.2 1 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Merrill KellyStarter 634.36.03 1.5746.023 4.27333496 4.2 4 3
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.00000120 1.0 1 0
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-3


Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies

TEX 24-25 (3.92 RPG / 3.65 RA)
3 - 7
COL 19-31 (4.2 RPG / 5.28 RA)
WINNER: COL wins 7-3 TARGET: TEX 4 - 5 COL (COL) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TEX00200001038
COL12130000x710

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed6.1
Run Diff-18
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

TEX Season Quality

Record22-25
Win%0.468
Run Diff2
RD/Game0.043

COL Season Quality

Record19-29
Win%0.396
Run Diff-43
RD/Game-0.896

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0468; margin adjustment: -0.4396; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Andrew McCutchenDH 12349 0.265 130.324 55100 01 0.200 0.260 0.318 0.388 OK
Justin Foscue2B 7247 0.292 250.333 43211 10 0.667 0.281 0.338 0.543 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 4618049 0.272 5160.353 43111 10 0.333 0.245 0.315 0.406 OK
Josh Jung3B 4417051 0.300 5200.355 43011 00 0.000 0.252 0.309 0.401 OK
Ezequiel DuranSS 3411835 0.297 3190.359 44100 01 0.250 0.287 0.345 0.452 OK
Jake Burger1B 4517441 0.236 7290.283 44000 01 0.000 0.255 0.311 0.430 OK
Michael HelmanCF 121 0.500 000.500 44000 03 0.000 0.204 0.217 0.286 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 196813 0.191 280.257 44100 01 0.250 0.188 0.248 0.298 OK
Sam HaggertyLF 8173 0.176 000.222 44200 02 0.500 0.154 0.206 0.210 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37348 33 29 0.235

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyCF 329627 0.281 2160.330 55111 02 0.200 0.268 0.308 0.427 OK
Mickey MoniakDH 3613741 0.299 12270.358 55314 00 0.600 0.228 0.283 0.472 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 207718 0.234 290.314 44210 00 0.500 0.210 0.240 0.326 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 4516845 0.268 5230.347 44000 02 0.000 0.229 0.306 0.358 OK
Troy JohnstonLF 3713544 0.326 2190.381 43210 00 0.667 0.287 0.340 0.411 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 4315532 0.206 1130.266 44110 01 0.250 0.205 0.266 0.298 OK
Edouard Julien2B 3311627 0.233 2120.315 43000 01 0.000 0.152 0.233 0.227 OK
Kyle Karros3B 4112729 0.228 1110.333 44112 01 0.250 0.209 0.309 0.291 OK
Brett SullivanC 196613 0.197 070.239 42010 20 0.000 0.139 0.181 0.230 OK
TEAM TOTALS 383410 77 27 0.294

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack LeiterStarter 947.84.52 1.40210.455 5.28771599 5.2 5 7
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 1720.50.88 0.4397.517 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1719.31.87 0.7774.29 1.0100119 1.0 1 0
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 2116.95.33 1.59812.223 0.01000015 0.0 0 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 2119.22.34 1.5108.017 0.00000016 0.0 0 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle FreelandStarter 732.57.48 1.7238.631 4.26331485 4.2 4 3
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 1716.67.05 2.1088.716 1.00000220 1.0 2 0
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1325.31.42 0.9098.925 1.21001127 1.2 1 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 1920.24.46 1.68312.027 1.21000224 1.2 2 0

Game Summary

COL wins 7-3


Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

TOR 21-27 (4.12 RPG / 4.4 RA)
2 - 4
NYY 30-19 (5.08 RPG / 3.65 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 4-2 TARGET: TOR 3 - 4 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 54.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TOR01000001026
NYY00000031x47

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

TOR Season Quality

Record21-27
Win%0.438
Run Diff-13
RD/Game-0.271

NYY Season Quality

Record30-19
Win%0.612
Run Diff70
RD/Game1.429

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.9615; margin adjustment: 0.8238; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 2811021 0.191 380.270 44100 00 0.250 0.185 0.255 0.316 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 4717449 0.282 3210.371 43100 10 0.333 0.223 0.307 0.337 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 4215843 0.272 5150.343 44000 02 0.000 0.315 0.373 0.462 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 4617139 0.228 10270.314 43000 12 0.000 0.186 0.278 0.316 OK
Yohendrick PinangoLF 144615 0.326 160.367 43111 12 0.333 0.255 0.300 0.363 OK
Ernie Clement2B 4517951 0.285 3160.310 44200 01 0.500 0.239 0.273 0.387 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 3512233 0.270 5180.306 44111 00 0.250 0.256 0.289 0.367 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 226917 0.246 4100.325 44000 02 0.000 0.208 0.292 0.337 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 4114937 0.248 5260.278 44000 00 0.000 0.192 0.221 0.330 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 22 39 0.182

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ben RiceDH 4015144 0.291 15310.393 44000 01 0.000 0.264 0.352 0.610 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 4917646 0.261 16300.395 43110 10 0.333 0.243 0.372 0.462 OK
Cody BellingerLF 4717146 0.269 6300.379 44110 02 0.250 0.252 0.371 0.450 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 4516940 0.237 5180.319 43000 11 0.000 0.288 0.367 0.448 OK
Paul Goldschmidt1B 176218 0.290 5110.389 44000 02 0.000 0.304 0.383 0.640 OK
Trent GrishamCF 4014524 0.166 4220.297 43211 10 0.667 0.159 0.289 0.272 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 3311219 0.170 3120.218 44100 01 0.250 0.153 0.198 0.276 OK
Anthony VolpeSS 6175 0.294 030.500 33113 00 0.333 0.255 0.455 0.411 OK
Austin WellsC 3510919 0.174 350.295 33100 01 0.333 0.144 0.261 0.209 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34317 44 38 0.226

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trey YesavageStarter 419.11.41 1.3099.921 5.12222795 5.1 7 2
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 2322.10.41 1.26714.335 1.24111137 1.2 1 1
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 2219.71.83 1.2186.414 1.01110016 1.0 0 1

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cam SchlittlerStarter 1058.61.38 0.80210.468 6.131126103 6.1 6 1
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2119.65.51 1.73511.525 1.01000120 1.0 1 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 2314.43.12 1.87517.528 1.02111123 1.0 1 1
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2315.71.72 1.0834.68 0.20000110 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-2