MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

May 19, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ATL @ MIA4 - 55 - 7MIAMIAMIA wins 7-551%enhanced_ml
BAL @ TB2 - 61 - 6TBTBTB wins 6-159%enhanced_ml
BOS @ KC3 - 22 - 1BOSBOSBOS wins 2-156%enhanced_ml
CHW @ SEA5 - 46 - 3CHWCHWCHW wins 6-354%enhanced_ml
CIN @ PHI4 - 53 - 4PHIPHIPHI wins 4-358%enhanced_ml
CLE @ DET4 - 24 - 1CLECLECLE wins 4-158%enhanced_ml
HOU @ MIN5 - 62 - 8MINMINMIN wins 8-251%enhanced_ml
LAD @ SD6 - 56 - 3LADLADLAD wins 6-351%enhanced_ml
MIL @ CHC3 - 13 - 2MILMILMIL wins 3-258%enhanced_ml
NYM @ WAS4 - 53 - 4WASWASWAS wins 4-351%enhanced_ml
OAK @ LAA5 - 35 - 4OAKOAKOAK wins 5-457%enhanced_ml
PIT @ STL3 - 42 - 4STLSTLSTL wins 4-251%enhanced_ml
SF @ ARI3 - 43 - 4ARIARIARI wins 4-351%enhanced_ml
TEX @ COL3 - 44 - 5COLCOLCOL wins 5-451%enhanced_ml
TOR @ NYY3 - 41 - 4NYYNYYNYY wins 4-151%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

ATL 33-16 (5.27 RPG / 3.43 RA)
5 - 7
MIA 22-27 (4.43 RPG / 4.53 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 7-5 TARGET: ATL 4 - 5 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ATL40100000058
MIA00000403x78

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

ATL Season Quality

Record32-16
Win%0.667
Run Diff86
RD/Game1.792

MIA Season Quality

Record22-26
Win%0.458
Run Diff-1
RD/Game-0.021

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.125; margin adjustment: -0.8925; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.DH 3412732 0.252 290.362 55000 02 0.000 0.272 0.369 0.407 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 4516741 0.246 3250.304 55210 02 0.400 0.210 0.262 0.366 OK
Matt Olson1B 4818451 0.277 14380.354 54000 00 0.000 0.227 0.305 0.443 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 4818651 0.274 8250.327 44212 00 0.500 0.207 0.257 0.325 OK
Austin Riley3B 4717939 0.218 7280.284 42010 21 0.000 0.221 0.272 0.394 OK
Michael Harris IICF 3914841 0.277 7200.303 44000 02 0.000 0.237 0.269 0.391 OK
José AzócarRF 5125 0.417 000.462 44211 01 0.500 0.280 0.335 0.487 OK
Sandy LeónC 372 0.286 000.286 44212 02 0.500 0.221 0.234 0.301 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 6191 0.053 000.143 43000 10 0.000 0.146 0.221 0.208 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39358 55 310 0.229

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 4717656 0.318 5180.403 44010 00 0.000 0.290 0.372 0.476 OK
Otto LopezSS 4618562 0.335 4210.365 44000 02 0.000 0.298 0.323 0.428 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 196811 0.162 090.240 44110 01 0.250 0.163 0.235 0.217 OK
Christopher Morel1B 12406 0.150 010.209 43110 00 0.333 0.165 0.204 0.230 OK
Esteury RuizCF 7234 0.174 230.174 44110 00 0.250 0.173 0.183 0.344 OK
Kyle StowersRF 259220 0.217 140.327 43010 10 0.000 0.192 0.292 0.280 OK
Connor NorbyDH 4113832 0.232 4140.335 43314 00 1.000 0.217 0.300 0.361 OK
Leo Jiménez3B 12369 0.250 010.317 43213 10 0.667 0.205 0.262 0.269 OK
Joe MackC 11377 0.189 060.231 44000 02 0.000 0.171 0.215 0.258 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36328 77 25 0.250

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Martín PérezStarter 935.32.29 0.9637.128 5.12111481 5.1 4 1
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1313.20.00 0.75811.617 1.21110024 1.2 0 1
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 1918.40.49 0.9249.319 1.05551132 1.0 1 5

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braxton GarrettStarter 11.140.91 8.18224.53 1.17443264 1.1 2 4
Tyler PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1425.61.41 1.3678.825 1.1100029 1.1 2 0
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 119.39.68 1.61314.515 1.20110121 1.2 1 1
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 1916.83.21 1.60710.219 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
John KingMiddle Reliever 2316.72.69 0.8389.217 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 1914.44.38 1.31911.919 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Lake BacharReliever 1523.32.70 0.9019.725 1.00000123 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 7-5


Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

BAL 21-27 (4.4 RPG / 5.52 RA)
1 - 6
TB 31-15 (4.85 RPG / 4.09 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 6-1 TARGET: BAL 2 - 6 TB (TB) Confidence: 59.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BAL00000000115
TB00400020x68

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff-17
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.4
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff20
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

BAL Season Quality

Record21-27
Win%0.438
Run Diff-54
RD/Game-1.125

TB Season Quality

Record31-15
Win%0.674
Run Diff35
RD/Game0.761

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.2405; margin adjustment: 0.941; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 4716844 0.262 1130.419 54100 10 0.250 0.234 0.388 0.335 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 4720042 0.210 10240.264 55100 02 0.200 0.219 0.268 0.398 OK
Adley RutschmanDH 2911430 0.263 7240.315 44000 02 0.000 0.222 0.272 0.468 OK
Pete Alonso1B 4818241 0.225 8260.307 44100 01 0.250 0.228 0.295 0.382 OK
Samuel BasalloC 3312433 0.266 6150.326 44100 02 0.250 0.257 0.313 0.444 OK
Leody TaverasCF 3010127 0.267 2180.373 43000 11 0.000 0.230 0.322 0.350 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 000 0.000 000.000 44111 00 0.250 0.238 0.306 0.363
Coby Mayo3B 3712323 0.187 5170.259 41000 30 0.000 0.205 0.267 0.355 OK
Colton CowserRF 247212 0.167 170.256 43000 11 0.000 0.137 0.224 0.233 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38325 11 69 0.156

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 4217048 0.282 080.319 53210 10 0.667 0.261 0.308 0.333 OK
Junior Caminero3B 4517546 0.263 13270.353 53010 20 0.000 0.276 0.369 0.539 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 4316143 0.267 8350.366 43112 10 0.333 0.235 0.341 0.377 OK
Yandy DíazDH 4417153 0.310 7310.387 44310 00 0.750 0.314 0.372 0.515 OK
Richie Palacios2B 236616 0.242 180.362 43000 11 0.000 0.257 0.353 0.336 OK
Jonny DeLucaRF 249125 0.275 1110.312 44114 00 0.250 0.274 0.313 0.403 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 3613323 0.173 3140.240 44110 00 0.250 0.242 0.296 0.358 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 184311 0.256 040.353 44000 02 0.000 0.226 0.313 0.306 OK
Taylor WallsSS 3410624 0.226 0140.328 44000 00 0.000 0.227 0.320 0.358 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38328 66 53 0.250

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle BradishStarter 946.34.28 1.55510.152 4.25443394 4.2 3 4
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2118.60.48 0.48411.624 1.22222035 1.2 0 2
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 1919.72.74 1.01511.425 1.21000024 1.2 0 0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Griffin JaxStarter 1420.23.12 1.4858.018 4.11003482 4.1 4 0
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 2118.42.93 1.14111.223 1.00000215 1.0 2 0
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 117.46.08 2.29715.813 1.01112124 1.0 1 1
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 2118.62.90 0.8608.217 1.21000234 1.2 2 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 1918.53.89 1.29712.626 1.02001023 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

TB wins 6-1


Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals

BOS 20-27 (3.62 RPG / 4.0 RA)
2 - 1
KC 20-28 (3.96 RPG / 4.44 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 2-1 TARGET: BOS 3 - 2 KC (BOS) Confidence: 56.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BOS20000000028
KC01000000014

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.1
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-11
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

KC Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-7
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

BOS Season Quality

Record20-27
Win%0.426
Run Diff-18
RD/Game-0.383

KC Season Quality

Record20-28
Win%0.417
Run Diff-23
RD/Game-0.479

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1095; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 4016430 0.183 4190.250 54000 10 0.000 0.176 0.239 0.281 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 4014440 0.278 3150.350 55200 02 0.400 0.273 0.324 0.418 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 4617551 0.291 6190.362 55200 01 0.400 0.250 0.318 0.377 OK
Willson Contreras1B 4415840 0.253 10270.356 54112 10 0.250 0.228 0.307 0.468 OK
Andruw MonasterioDH 176616 0.242 170.296 53000 20 0.000 0.232 0.281 0.368 OK
Nick Sogard2B 272 0.286 010.375 43210 11 0.667 0.233 0.321 0.429 OK
Carlos NarváezC 288820 0.227 230.292 43100 11 0.333 0.219 0.273 0.334 OK
Isiah Kiner-FalefaSS 13377 0.189 020.250 44000 01 0.000 0.195 0.254 0.238 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 4113823 0.167 1130.248 44000 01 0.000 0.141 0.196 0.222 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41358 22 67 0.229

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 4518248 0.264 3180.327 43100 10 0.333 0.229 0.293 0.343 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 4818957 0.302 7230.374 43000 11 0.000 0.275 0.351 0.451 OK
Salvador PerezDH 4617936 0.201 7200.244 44000 00 0.000 0.205 0.237 0.353 OK
Lane ThomasCF 237113 0.183 150.322 44000 00 0.000 0.173 0.302 0.235 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 3713133 0.252 480.324 44100 00 0.250 0.244 0.303 0.438 OK
Starling MarteLF 123913 0.333 020.386 44100 01 0.250 0.291 0.344 0.400 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 4517134 0.199 5220.281 43100 11 0.333 0.176 0.259 0.271 OK
Nick Loftin2B 13407 0.175 070.306 32011 01 0.000 0.165 0.267 0.243 OK
Carter JensenC 3913230 0.227 6190.325 33000 00 0.000 0.191 0.293 0.296 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34304 11 34 0.133

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ranger SuarezStarter 843.42.49 0.9688.340 5.23113492 5.2 4 1
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1716.20.56 0.86412.222 1.10000014 1.1 0 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 1818.12.98 1.10511.423 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 86.30.00 0.95212.99 1.01000016 1.0 0 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bailey FalterStarter 35.110.59 2.7457.14 3.06224372 3.0 3 2
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 2018.43.42 1.5228.317 1.02000119 1.0 1 0
Nick MearsMiddle Reliever 1813.83.26 1.5227.812 2.00000024 2.0 0 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 1917.92.01 0.89413.126 1.00002121 1.0 1 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever 2015.34.12 1.7655.39 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Alex LangeMiddle Reliever 1920.55.71 1.5619.722 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 2-1


Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners

CHW 24-23 (4.51 RPG / 4.77 RA)
6 - 3
SEA 23-26 (4.16 RPG / 3.94 RA)
WINNER: CHW wins 6-3 TARGET: CHW 5 - 4 SEA (CHW) Confidence: 54.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CHW100011012611
SEA20010000038

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.8
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff3
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

CHW Season Quality

Record24-22
Win%0.522
Run Diff-7
RD/Game-0.152

SEA Season Quality

Record22-26
Win%0.458
Run Diff6
RD/Game0.125

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1821; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 269025 0.278 190.377 55210 02 0.400 0.281 0.330 0.398 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 4516239 0.241 17320.380 54314 10 0.750 0.262 0.399 0.559 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 4416339 0.239 11290.364 53111 10 0.333 0.250 0.350 0.531 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 4416438 0.232 13310.330 55110 02 0.200 0.249 0.317 0.551 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 4316243 0.265 3100.339 53111 20 0.333 0.220 0.303 0.323 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 3412331 0.252 3160.299 55000 02 0.000 0.258 0.316 0.442 OK
Jarred KelenicRF 13409 0.225 140.279 44000 02 0.000 0.207 0.262 0.329 OK
Tristan PetersCF 3310025 0.250 2110.312 44100 02 0.250 0.221 0.285 0.385 OK
Edgar QueroC 237913 0.165 070.242 44210 01 0.500 0.159 0.229 0.195 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423711 66 411 0.297

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Rob RefsnyderDH 12364 0.111 120.175 44000 03 0.000 0.168 0.229 0.258 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 4919549 0.251 8210.318 44110 02 0.250 0.208 0.272 0.377 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 4917754 0.305 4190.388 44100 01 0.250 0.301 0.372 0.449 OK
Josh Naylor1B 4618147 0.260 5220.325 44313 00 0.750 0.271 0.337 0.359 OK
Patrick Wisdom3B 000 0.000 000.000 44100 02 0.250 0.231 0.301 0.367
Connor JoeRF 7213 0.143 110.217 43110 11 0.333 0.185 0.252 0.362 OK
Mitch GarverC 15468 0.174 130.356 44000 00 0.000 0.176 0.344 0.275 OK
Cole Young2B 4917342 0.243 3260.316 44100 01 0.250 0.199 0.260 0.296 OK
Colt EmersonSS 261 0.167 130.286 44000 01 0.000 0.190 0.294 0.343 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36358 33 111 0.229

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Anthony KayStarter 938.94.86 1.6206.729 4.16331788 4.1 7 3
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.10000118 1.1 1 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 2.11000230 2.1 2 0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryce MillerStarter 15.13.53 1.7655.33 5.05221689 5.0 6 2
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 1917.35.20 1.32915.630 1.01110116 1.0 1 1
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 2316.83.21 1.6679.618 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Cooper CriswellMiddle Reliever 1718.42.93 1.0878.317 1.02111123 1.0 1 1
Alex HoppeMiddle Reliever 78.46.43 1.54811.811 1.03222230 1.0 2 2

Game Summary

CHW wins 6-3


Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies

CIN 24-24 (4.33 RPG / 5.08 RA)
3 - 4
PHI 25-23 (4.25 RPG / 4.58 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 4-3 TARGET: CIN 4 - 5 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 58.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CIN000120000311
PHI10000120x48

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff-6
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff26
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak5W

CIN Season Quality

Record24-24
Win%0.500
Run Diff-36
RD/Game-0.750

PHI Season Quality

Record25-23
Win%0.521
Run Diff-16
RD/Game-0.333

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4479; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Matt McLain2B 4416637 0.223 5190.325 55100 02 0.200 0.251 0.341 0.457 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 4819257 0.297 11310.362 54210 11 0.500 0.299 0.359 0.509 OK
Spencer Steer1B 4516243 0.265 7180.337 54000 12 0.000 0.279 0.339 0.426 OK
Sal StewartDH 4818145 0.249 11320.340 55100 00 0.200 0.232 0.333 0.420 OK
Dane MyersCF 10358 0.229 350.372 54200 10 0.500 0.228 0.344 0.431 OK
JJ BledayLF 206920 0.290 6190.410 54311 10 0.750 0.256 0.370 0.551 OK
Blake DunnRF 4145 0.357 110.471 44212 01 0.500 0.260 0.377 0.459 OK
Tyler StephensonC 3411519 0.165 3130.258 44000 02 0.000 0.147 0.236 0.257 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 3611617 0.147 250.202 44000 01 0.000 0.157 0.211 0.246 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423811 33 49 0.289

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerDH 4619546 0.236 4150.282 43100 11 0.333 0.239 0.283 0.332 OK
Bryce Harper1B 4717348 0.277 12300.373 44111 02 0.250 0.290 0.387 0.563 OK
Alec Bohm3B 4316035 0.219 4210.277 43111 10 0.333 0.288 0.336 0.452 OK
Brandon MarshLF 4015551 0.329 4220.352 44111 01 0.250 0.283 0.310 0.398 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 4516635 0.211 3130.283 44100 03 0.250 0.166 0.228 0.251 OK
Bryson Stott2B 3713730 0.219 5210.270 44100 01 0.250 0.222 0.273 0.447 OK
Edmundo SosaSS 206614 0.212 190.243 43111 10 0.333 0.204 0.232 0.293 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 3913236 0.273 2110.347 44100 02 0.250 0.246 0.315 0.406 OK
Rafael MarchánC 13464 0.087 120.143 43000 10 0.000 0.118 0.145 0.181 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36328 44 410 0.250

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chase BurnsStarter 952.31.89 1.0139.555 6.052237112 6.0 7 2
Graham AshcraftMiddle Reliever 2221.72.49 1.29010.425 1.02221323 1.0 3 2
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 1917.33.64 1.3299.418 1.01000016 1.0 0 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jesús LuzardoStarter 947.85.27 1.38111.561 5.182237111 5.1 7 2
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 1312.21.48 1.06615.521 1.10001121 1.1 1 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 2018.54.38 1.29711.724 1.02000119 1.0 1 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 2212.77.09 2.52016.323 0.21110016 0.2 0 1
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 1914.82.43 1.2847.312 0.20000013 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 4-3


Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

CLE 27-22 (4.45 RPG / 4.06 RA)
4 - 1
DET 20-28 (3.96 RPG / 4.35 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 4-1 TARGET: CLE 4 - 2 DET (CLE) Confidence: 58.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CLE01200100049
DET00100000014

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff23
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

DET Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs2.5
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-25
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

CLE Season Quality

Record25-21
Win%0.543
Run Diff14
RD/Game0.304

DET Season Quality

Record20-25
Win%0.444
Run Diff-13
RD/Game-0.289

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7418; margin adjustment: -0.3116; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Daniel SchneemannCF 3411730 0.256 4160.336 55210 02 0.400 0.223 0.305 0.354 OK
José Ramírez3B 4917943 0.240 8220.369 53100 22 0.333 0.314 0.431 0.547 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 4115843 0.272 7300.357 55112 01 0.200 0.239 0.332 0.427 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 3312024 0.200 3120.276 44100 01 0.250 0.236 0.304 0.397 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 186418 0.281 170.410 43000 12 0.000 0.294 0.394 0.369 OK
Angel MartínezRF 3614040 0.286 9240.333 44111 00 0.250 0.279 0.311 0.561 OK
Steven KwanLF 4416533 0.200 1100.328 44211 00 0.500 0.186 0.339 0.245 OK
Austin HedgesC 195915 0.254 140.328 44000 01 0.000 0.203 0.291 0.323 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 4715344 0.288 4260.375 44100 01 0.250 0.278 0.362 0.429 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39369 44 310 0.250

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Matt VierlingCF 3010723 0.215 3160.286 44100 00 0.250 0.204 0.278 0.411 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 4517150 0.292 2160.398 44000 00 0.000 0.249 0.351 0.359 OK
Jahmai JonesDH 10266 0.231 130.286 44100 02 0.250 0.188 0.251 0.332 OK
Dillon DinglerC 3814436 0.250 8270.329 44000 00 0.000 0.233 0.304 0.428 OK
Riley GreeneLF 4717056 0.329 4240.424 44000 03 0.000 0.308 0.397 0.443 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 4515530 0.194 6170.308 32000 11 0.000 0.162 0.265 0.290 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 258913 0.146 050.191 33000 01 0.000 0.154 0.199 0.197 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 14427 0.167 040.239 33111 00 0.333 0.157 0.227 0.281 OK
Zack ShortSS 5100 0.000 000.286 33100 00 0.333 0.118 0.294 0.173
TEAM TOTALS 32314 11 17 0.129

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 951.82.43 1.02310.158 5.23111691 5.2 6 1
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2121.22.97 1.13213.231 2.00000117 2.0 1 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever 2315.72.29 1.08320.636 0.21000014 0.2 0 0
Matt FestaMiddle Reliever 2116.16.15 1.49111.721 0.20000013 0.2 0 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Keider MonteroStarter 842.73.79 1.0306.531 5.263325109 5.2 5 3
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 1411.42.37 0.96514.218 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 2019.80.91 1.4146.414 1.02000119 1.0 1 0
Burch SmithMiddle Reliever 1114.43.12 1.45811.919 1.11110225 1.1 2 1

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-1


Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins

HOU 19-30 (4.39 RPG / 5.49 RA)
2 - 8
MIN 22-26 (4.69 RPG / 4.75 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 8-2 TARGET: HOU 5 - 6 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
HOU01000000128
MIN04400000x89

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.0
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff-27
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

HOU Season Quality

Record19-30
Win%0.388
Run Diff-54
RD/Game-1.102

MIN Season Quality

Record22-26
Win%0.458
Run Diff-3
RD/Game-0.062

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.1454; margin adjustment: 0.4811; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 114611 0.239 010.294 53112 21 0.333 0.220 0.268 0.335 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 4215439 0.253 4180.347 54100 11 0.250 0.218 0.288 0.350 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 4917756 0.316 15310.427 54000 00 0.000 0.300 0.408 0.598 OK
Christian Walker1B 4817547 0.269 11310.342 55000 02 0.000 0.215 0.283 0.427 OK
Zach DezenzoRF 8266 0.231 120.286 44210 01 0.500 0.219 0.272 0.356 OK
Zach ColeLF 11377 0.189 240.211 43100 11 0.333 0.199 0.207 0.346 OK
Jake MeyersCF 10379 0.243 140.326 44200 01 0.500 0.233 0.304 0.394 OK
Braden Shewmake2B 134914 0.286 260.286 44000 01 0.000 0.229 0.237 0.358 OK
Christian VázquezC 237520 0.267 3130.345 44100 02 0.250 0.176 0.266 0.304 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40358 22 410 0.229

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonDH 4016944 0.260 15230.319 54112 02 0.250 0.285 0.341 0.672 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 3010128 0.277 2120.397 44212 00 0.500 0.272 0.380 0.437 OK
Josh Bell1B 4316436 0.220 5270.283 44000 00 0.000 0.239 0.291 0.422 OK
Kody Clemens2B 3110827 0.250 4120.352 43110 10 0.333 0.282 0.348 0.498 OK
Austin MartinRF 3211234 0.304 1100.423 43110 10 0.333 0.261 0.368 0.345 OK
Brooks LeeSS 4316039 0.244 5220.297 44111 01 0.250 0.215 0.262 0.315 OK
Victor CaratiniC 3010119 0.188 1140.293 43010 12 0.000 0.171 0.242 0.213 OK
Tristan Gray3B 206915 0.217 3140.257 44213 01 0.500 0.198 0.235 0.304 OK
James OutmanCF 12409 0.225 030.244 44110 00 0.250 0.221 0.247 0.379 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37339 88 36 0.273

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jason AlexanderStarter 26.114.75 2.6238.96 3.09773477 3.0 4 7
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 1717.23.66 1.5708.416 1.10000119 1.1 1 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 1613.68.60 2.35313.921 0.00110019 0.0 0 1
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 1715.85.13 1.3929.116 1.00000017 1.0 0 0
AJ BlubaughMiddle Reliever 1926.85.04 1.5677.723 1.1000014 1.1 1 0
Steven OkertMiddle Reliever 2215.84.56 1.3929.116 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zebby MatthewsStarter 17.00.00 0.7146.45 5.04003687 5.0 6 0
Justin TopaMiddle Reliever 2415.110.13 2.5178.915 1.01110019 1.0 0 1
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 1919.34.20 1.6068.418 1.10000220 1.1 2 0
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 1914.73.06 1.7698.614 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Luis GarcíaMiddle Reliever 88.26.59 1.4632.22 0.12000017 0.1 0 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever 1217.25.23 1.7448.416 0.11111115 0.1 1 1

Game Summary

MIN wins 8-2


Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

LAD 29-19 (5.17 RPG / 3.23 RA)
6 - 3
SD 29-18 (4.17 RPG / 4.0 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 6-3 TARGET: LAD 6 - 5 SD (LAD) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAD02021001068
SD00020001037

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff17
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak5W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff0
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

LAD Season Quality

Record29-18
Win%0.617
Run Diff94
RD/Game2.000

SD Season Quality

Record28-18
Win%0.609
Run Diff7
RD/Game0.152

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.8603; margin adjustment: -0.7813; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 4316644 0.265 7240.392 54010 11 0.000 0.300 0.411 0.489 OK
Mookie BettsSS 135410 0.185 490.241 55111 00 0.200 0.203 0.247 0.413 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 4517344 0.254 4200.338 43000 10 0.000 0.197 0.297 0.328 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 4516843 0.256 4220.355 44000 00 0.000 0.248 0.349 0.386 OK
Will SmithC 3413033 0.254 4190.320 44211 01 0.500 0.216 0.288 0.339 OK
Max Muncy3B 4415340 0.261 12190.362 43110 11 0.333 0.219 0.324 0.450 OK
Andy PagesCF 4717653 0.301 10410.352 44213 00 0.500 0.246 0.301 0.438 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 4315641 0.263 5230.337 44211 02 0.500 0.272 0.336 0.424 OK
Hyeseong Kim2B 319426 0.277 1100.349 44000 01 0.000 0.236 0.318 0.311 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 66 36 0.229

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 4517240 0.233 0140.308 55000 00 0.000 0.188 0.265 0.237 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 3412939 0.302 4150.323 44100 02 0.250 0.275 0.292 0.489 OK
Gavin SheetsLF 3612130 0.248 7170.331 44000 01 0.000 0.286 0.376 0.610 OK
Manny Machado3B 4516129 0.180 6200.278 44100 02 0.250 0.154 0.251 0.263 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 4516542 0.255 6210.328 44211 01 0.500 0.218 0.288 0.302 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 4417335 0.202 4190.270 44112 01 0.250 0.148 0.212 0.244 OK
Nick CastellanosRF 248417 0.202 2160.236 43110 10 0.333 0.201 0.235 0.345 OK
Ty France1B 206920 0.290 4120.319 43100 10 0.333 0.243 0.267 0.416 OK
Freddy FerminC 258113 0.160 030.247 43000 12 0.000 0.157 0.223 0.222 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 33 39 0.206

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emmet SheehanStarter 839.84.75 1.30711.149 5.152207100 5.1 7 2
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 2017.41.55 0.6329.318 1.20002129 1.2 1 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 2014.73.06 1.08814.123 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 1313.00.69 0.69211.116 1.00001017 1.0 0 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Griffin CanningStarter 310.311.36 2.33012.214 3.16553377 3.1 3 5
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 2121.30.85 0.84519.045 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 1714.51.24 1.0344.37 2.00000025 2.0 0 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 2019.56.00 1.43612.928 1.11110120 1.1 1 1
Jeremiah EstradaMiddle Reliever 1311.83.81 1.27112.216 1.00000216 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-3


Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

MIL 27-18 (5.04 RPG / 3.56 RA)
3 - 2
CHC 29-19 (5.08 RPG / 4.33 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 3-2 TARGET: MIL 3 - 1 CHC (MIL) Confidence: 58.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIL00000020139
CHC00000020026

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff21
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

MIL Season Quality

Record27-18
Win%0.600
Run Diff67
RD/Game1.489

CHC Season Quality

Record29-19
Win%0.604
Run Diff36
RD/Game0.750

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7326; margin adjustment: -0.3077; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 125417 0.315 150.351 55100 03 0.200 0.282 0.320 0.450 OK
Brice Turang2B 4215744 0.280 6270.403 55100 01 0.200 0.244 0.369 0.401 OK
William ContrerasC 4217049 0.288 3270.361 43200 10 0.667 0.283 0.355 0.365 OK
Christian YelichDH 166218 0.290 290.353 44000 00 0.000 0.249 0.317 0.467 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 3311427 0.237 2230.348 44000 00 0.000 0.238 0.337 0.408 OK
Jake Bauers1B 3513239 0.295 7260.372 44100 03 0.250 0.327 0.399 0.554 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 3212026 0.217 0140.280 43211 10 0.667 0.235 0.291 0.310 OK
Sal FrelickRF 3814131 0.220 3130.290 44211 01 0.500 0.219 0.276 0.300 OK
David HamiltonSS 3310023 0.230 070.330 43011 02 0.000 0.192 0.287 0.233 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38359 33 210 0.257

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 4618948 0.254 4290.339 54210 10 0.500 0.207 0.295 0.302 OK
Michael Busch1B 4616940 0.237 4260.364 55212 01 0.400 0.249 0.375 0.426 OK
Alex Bregman3B 4618746 0.246 4150.333 42000 20 0.000 0.251 0.331 0.347 OK
Ian HappLF 4617138 0.222 10200.361 44000 01 0.000 0.192 0.324 0.366 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 3212333 0.268 7170.368 43000 11 0.000 0.223 0.315 0.363 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 319823 0.235 6180.294 44100 02 0.250 0.173 0.237 0.309 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 4515429 0.188 7250.297 43000 12 0.000 0.170 0.274 0.326 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 4717340 0.231 5200.311 44000 00 0.000 0.183 0.251 0.324 OK
Miguel AmayaC 206516 0.246 390.347 44100 02 0.250 0.204 0.283 0.344 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38336 22 59 0.182

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob MisiorowskiStarter 950.32.15 0.91514.380 5.250048102 5.2 8 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 1915.75.16 1.33810.318 1.01221020 1.0 0 2
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 2126.22.40 1.45015.144 1.10000021 1.1 0 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 1616.03.38 1.12511.220 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ben BrownStarter 1432.51.66 0.8929.434 5.03001688 5.0 6 0
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 108.32.17 1.3259.89 1.03111032 1.0 0 1
Phil MatonMiddle Reliever 1410.011.70 2.20014.416 1.01110117 1.0 1 1
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 2017.13.68 1.63712.123 2.02110343 2.0 3 1

Game Summary

MIL wins 3-2


New York Mets @ Washington Nationals

NYM 21-26 (4.09 RPG / 4.23 RA)
3 - 4
WAS 23-25 (5.46 RPG / 5.92 RA)
WINNER: WAS wins 4-3 TARGET: NYM 4 - 5 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYM00002001037
WAS00020020x410

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.8
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff21
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed6.9
Run Diff-12
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

NYM Season Quality

Record21-26
Win%0.447
Run Diff-7
RD/Game-0.149

WAS Season Quality

Record23-25
Win%0.479
Run Diff-22
RD/Game-0.458

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2609; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 3914437 0.257 3170.318 54111 00 0.250 0.292 0.343 0.393 OK
Bo BichetteSS 4719242 0.219 3210.273 44000 03 0.000 0.200 0.265 0.308 OK
Juan SotoDH 3111833 0.280 6160.381 44100 01 0.250 0.284 0.387 0.492 OK
Mark Vientos1B 3613330 0.226 6220.268 44100 02 0.250 0.216 0.251 0.389 OK
Marcus Semien2B 4717139 0.228 3170.283 43000 10 0.000 0.233 0.288 0.352 OK
Tyrone TaylorCF 206214 0.226 160.250 43111 02 0.333 0.223 0.249 0.336 OK
Nick MorabitoLF 000 0.000 000.000 44100 02 0.250 0.252 0.325 0.395
Brett Baty3B 3713333 0.248 3190.308 43100 11 0.333 0.255 0.315 0.438 OK
Luis TorrensC 17539 0.170 050.214 43111 10 0.333 0.177 0.212 0.284 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37327 33 311 0.219

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 4818446 0.250 12300.395 53000 21 0.000 0.264 0.387 0.475 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 3512734 0.268 3210.299 54000 10 0.000 0.259 0.297 0.438 OK
Jose FernandezDH 000 0.000 000.000 44100 01 0.250 0.253 0.285 0.347
CJ AbramsSS 4617352 0.301 9390.386 44112 02 0.250 0.285 0.353 0.461 OK
Daylen LileLF 4719050 0.263 7250.324 44211 00 0.500 0.247 0.303 0.442 OK
Dylan CrewsCF 000 0.000 000.000 44210 00 0.500 0.228 0.297 0.374
Jorbit Vivas3B 278020 0.250 030.344 44100 00 0.250 0.220 0.301 0.309 OK
Drew MillasC 237213 0.181 160.253 44211 01 0.500 0.181 0.253 0.273 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 4013025 0.192 0140.307 43100 10 0.333 0.141 0.260 0.179 OK
TEAM TOTALS 383410 44 45 0.294

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nolan McLeanStarter 951.42.98 0.97311.264 5.25223598 5.2 5 2
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 1714.53.72 1.31014.924 1.02000019 1.0 0 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 1918.73.85 1.23010.121 0.02220019 0.0 0 2
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 2015.31.76 1.37312.421 1.11001019 1.1 0 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Foster GriffinStarter 950.33.58 1.1538.849 6.05221695 6.0 6 2
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 1915.44.68 1.75310.518 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
PJ PoulinMiddle Reliever 2317.73.56 1.8088.116 0.20001119 0.2 1 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1426.23.44 1.2607.923 1.12111223 1.1 2 1
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 1210.02.70 2.20011.713 0.00000016 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

WAS wins 4-3


Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

OAK 23-24 (4.28 RPG / 4.57 RA)
5 - 4
LAA 17-31 (3.92 RPG / 5.15 RA)
WINNER: OAK wins 5-4 TARGET: OAK 5 - 3 LAA (OAK) Confidence: 57.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
OAK01101002058
LAA00000301049

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs2.4
Avg Allowed6.4
Run Diff-40
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak6L

OAK Season Quality

Record23-23
Win%0.500
Run Diff-13
RD/Game-0.283

LAA Season Quality

Record16-31
Win%0.340
Run Diff-60
RD/Game-1.277

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.2333; margin adjustment: -0.518; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shea LangeliersDH 4217358 0.335 12270.396 55212 01 0.400 0.318 0.382 0.519 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 4616544 0.267 8290.427 54000 11 0.000 0.272 0.423 0.548 OK
Colby ThomasLF 7227 0.318 120.375 43000 12 0.000 0.276 0.334 0.456 OK
Brent RookerRF 3011522 0.191 6210.275 44112 00 0.250 0.200 0.283 0.365 OK
Henry BolteCF 5176 0.353 020.368 44210 01 0.500 0.273 0.316 0.339 OK
Zack Gelof3B 248521 0.247 5130.304 44110 00 0.250 0.231 0.282 0.425 OK
Jonah HeimC 3121 0.083 000.083 44100 02 0.250 0.203 0.270 0.363 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 3813338 0.286 1140.349 44111 00 0.250 0.226 0.290 0.317 OK
Darell HernaizSS 226817 0.250 150.329 43000 11 0.000 0.228 0.300 0.293 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 55 38 0.229

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 4818742 0.225 8220.336 54000 12 0.000 0.234 0.331 0.454 OK
Mike TroutCF 4716739 0.234 11230.393 55211 00 0.400 0.178 0.324 0.332 OK
Vaughn Grissom3B 207519 0.253 2100.329 44100 01 0.250 0.201 0.283 0.350 OK
Jorge SolerDH 4415934 0.214 8280.308 44100 01 0.250 0.174 0.254 0.323 OK
Jo AdellRF 4818347 0.257 6270.303 44111 01 0.250 0.202 0.239 0.333 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 3010627 0.255 5110.319 44212 00 0.500 0.207 0.254 0.364 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 4317043 0.253 3200.303 43000 10 0.000 0.224 0.273 0.315 OK
Logan O'HoppeC 278817 0.193 180.301 44210 02 0.500 0.158 0.240 0.203 OK
Jose SiriLF 121 0.500 000.500 44000 02 0.000 0.183 0.196 0.261 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38369 44 29 0.250

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob LopezStarter 939.45.94 1.7516.930 4.15330583 4.1 5 3
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 2416.43.29 2.19513.224 1.12111121 1.1 1 1
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 1713.43.36 1.3435.48 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 2018.31.97 0.8749.820 1.11000120 1.1 1 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 2117.17.89 1.87111.622 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Reid DetmersStarter 947.04.60 1.31910.153 5.15331697 5.1 6 3
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 1619.94.97 1.35713.129 1.10001023 1.1 0 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 1619.33.26 1.14011.224 1.13221128 1.1 1 2
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 43.25.62 1.25016.96 1.00000117 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

OAK wins 5-4


Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals

PIT 24-23 (4.87 RPG / 4.49 RA)
2 - 4
STL 27-19 (4.52 RPG / 4.46 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 4-2 TARGET: PIT 3 - 4 STL (STL) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PIT00110000023
STL12000100x48

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

STL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff4
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

PIT Season Quality

Record24-23
Win%0.511
Run Diff18
RD/Game0.383

STL Season Quality

Record27-19
Win%0.587
Run Diff3
RD/Game0.065

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2033; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Gonzales3B 3814848 0.324 0190.383 44000 02 0.000 0.289 0.339 0.353 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 3914839 0.264 3190.321 44000 02 0.000 0.260 0.307 0.389 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 4516342 0.258 4260.390 44111 01 0.250 0.249 0.362 0.356 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 3714727 0.184 5160.268 44000 02 0.000 0.165 0.245 0.307 OK
Oneil CruzCF 4418849 0.261 10320.325 33000 02 0.000 0.234 0.296 0.386 OK
Jhostynxon GarciaRF 000 0.000 000.000 33000 00 0.000 0.243 0.313 0.397
Brandon Lowe2B 4015639 0.250 12310.348 32111 10 0.500 0.219 0.310 0.510 OK
Jared Triolo1B 144810 0.208 020.269 33100 01 0.333 0.211 0.258 0.281 OK
Henry DavisC 289213 0.141 280.240 33000 02 0.000 0.123 0.213 0.224 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31303 22 112 0.100

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 4417040 0.235 8220.359 43112 10 0.333 0.222 0.320 0.375 OK
Iván HerreraDH 4617045 0.265 4200.395 43000 11 0.000 0.266 0.361 0.382 OK
Alec Burleson1B 4317549 0.280 6330.340 43110 10 0.333 0.289 0.344 0.426 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 4417152 0.304 13340.375 44000 01 0.000 0.279 0.344 0.549 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 3914233 0.232 4220.313 44211 01 0.500 0.239 0.330 0.323 OK
Nathan ChurchLF 3613433 0.246 4150.277 44100 01 0.250 0.240 0.275 0.345 OK
César PrietoSS 140 0.000 000.000 44100 00 0.250 0.202 0.211 0.289
Pedro PagésC 299820 0.204 490.248 44111 01 0.250 0.168 0.201 0.313 OK
Victor Scott IICF 3810921 0.193 270.252 33100 00 0.333 0.193 0.246 0.300 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35328 44 35 0.250

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mitch KellerStarter 952.23.62 1.0926.638 6.073325112 6.0 5 3
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2221.42.52 0.88810.926 1.20001025 1.2 0 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 2018.43.91 1.3045.912 0.11110015 0.1 0 1

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matthew LiberatoreStarter 946.34.47 1.5336.634 5.03221885 5.0 8 2
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2220.62.62 0.97110.925 1.10000118 1.1 1 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2217.94.02 1.5089.619 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 2116.44.39 1.5248.816 1.2000029 1.2 2 0

Game Summary

STL wins 4-2


San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks

SF 20-28 (3.48 RPG / 4.46 RA)
3 - 4
ARI 23-23 (4.57 RPG / 4.72 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 4-3 TARGET: SF 3 - 4 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SF00012000034
ARI00010003x47

SF Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

SF Season Quality

Record20-27
Win%0.426
Run Diff-37
RD/Game-0.787

ARI Season Quality

Record22-23
Win%0.489
Run Diff-17
RD/Game-0.378

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5045; margin adjustment: 0.2119; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Harrison BaderCF 207413 0.176 490.205 44111 01 0.250 0.213 0.246 0.464 OK
Luis Arraez2B 4517657 0.324 2170.365 44000 00 0.000 0.327 0.381 0.510 OK
Casey SchmittDH 3914844 0.297 8210.344 44000 02 0.000 0.274 0.300 0.500 OK
Rafael Devers1B 4818344 0.240 5190.288 44000 01 0.000 0.225 0.276 0.346 OK
Willy AdamesSS 4718945 0.238 4140.273 33100 01 0.333 0.266 0.300 0.425 OK
Matt Chapman3B 4617839 0.219 1160.294 33111 00 0.333 0.188 0.254 0.290 OK
Drew GilbertLF 237617 0.224 270.289 33000 00 0.000 0.186 0.247 0.302 OK
Daniel SusacC 72712 0.444 060.483 33000 02 0.000 0.256 0.305 0.426 OK
Will BrennanRF 370 0.000 000.000 33111 00 0.333 0.156 0.170 0.233
TEAM TOTALS 31314 33 07 0.129

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 4117038 0.224 5170.273 55000 02 0.000 0.237 0.289 0.358 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 4415544 0.284 7240.392 43110 10 0.333 0.315 0.423 0.624 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 4315034 0.227 2120.344 43100 11 0.333 0.227 0.347 0.341 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 4314640 0.274 7250.349 43211 10 0.667 0.267 0.352 0.478 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 3715450 0.325 7280.342 43000 10 0.000 0.293 0.312 0.439 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 217918 0.228 190.295 43100 10 0.333 0.233 0.303 0.361 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 228321 0.253 2120.304 44112 00 0.250 0.269 0.318 0.412 OK
Adrian Del CastilloDH 248815 0.170 2130.221 43111 11 0.333 0.151 0.213 0.250 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 9319 0.290 060.353 44000 02 0.000 0.243 0.312 0.397 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37317 44 66 0.226

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Landen RouppStarter 947.63.59 1.17611.058 5.131143106 5.1 3 1
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 1917.22.09 1.27911.021 2.00001129 2.0 1 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 2018.42.45 0.8707.816 0.24331224 0.2 2 3

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryne NelsonStarter 942.25.76 1.2329.243 5.04220381 5.0 3 2
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.0011003 1.0 0 1
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 1.0000013 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

ARI wins 4-3


Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies

TEX 22-25 (3.77 RPG / 3.72 RA)
4 - 5
COL 19-29 (4.29 RPG / 5.19 RA)
WINNER: COL wins 5-4 TARGET: TEX 3 - 4 COL (COL) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TEX00010000347
COL00000001459

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff2
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed5.7
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

TEX Season Quality

Record22-24
Win%0.478
Run Diff3
RD/Game0.065

COL Season Quality

Record18-29
Win%0.383
Run Diff-44
RD/Game-0.936

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1443; margin adjustment: -0.4806; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Andrew McCutchenDH 12349 0.265 130.324 54000 12 0.000 0.256 0.315 0.384 OK
Justin Foscue2B 6206 0.300 240.333 55000 01 0.000 0.259 0.298 0.490 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 4517646 0.261 4130.342 42110 21 0.500 0.196 0.273 0.310 OK
Josh Jung3B 4316750 0.299 5200.348 44000 02 0.000 0.246 0.290 0.398 OK
Ezequiel DuranSS 3311332 0.283 3150.349 44110 00 0.250 0.257 0.319 0.406 OK
Jake Burger1B 4417039 0.229 7280.275 43111 12 0.333 0.258 0.308 0.458 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 164210 0.238 050.407 44100 02 0.250 0.232 0.333 0.293 OK
Danny JansenC 289017 0.189 290.305 44100 02 0.250 0.162 0.258 0.286 OK
Evan CarterCF 4113123 0.176 5130.297 44213 00 0.500 0.149 0.266 0.259 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 44 412 0.206

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Willi Castro3B 3512732 0.252 2160.309 43111 11 0.333 0.246 0.300 0.368 OK
Mickey MoniakLF 3513441 0.306 12270.361 44000 01 0.000 0.258 0.311 0.540 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 4116440 0.244 11180.307 44110 00 0.250 0.239 0.288 0.440 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 4416445 0.274 5230.355 43000 00 0.000 0.252 0.336 0.385 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 4215332 0.209 1130.261 44100 00 0.250 0.221 0.269 0.315 OK
Troy JohnstonDH 3613142 0.321 2190.378 44111 00 0.250 0.281 0.337 0.414 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 299716 0.165 140.250 44100 02 0.250 0.167 0.250 0.239 OK
Jake McCarthyRF 319327 0.290 2160.340 44310 00 0.750 0.266 0.307 0.445 OK
Edouard Julien2B 3211327 0.239 2120.323 44113 00 0.250 0.148 0.233 0.225 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36349 55 14 0.265

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler AlexanderStarter 2018.22.47 1.5937.916 5.02221373 5.0 3 2
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 1720.50.88 0.4397.517 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1719.31.87 0.7774.29 1.02110019 1.0 0 1
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 2116.95.33 1.59812.223 0.25220023 0.2 0 2

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sammy PeraltaStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 3.04112564 3.0 5 1
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 1716.67.05 2.1088.716 1.00111120 1.0 1 1
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1325.31.42 0.9098.925 1.10000228 1.1 2 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 1920.24.46 1.68312.027 1.20000223 1.2 2 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 2013.04.15 1.92314.521 1.01000117 1.0 1 0
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 2113.95.18 1.6558.413 1.02221123 1.0 1 2

Game Summary

COL wins 5-4


Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

TOR 21-26 (4.13 RPG / 4.38 RA)
1 - 4
NYY 29-19 (5.08 RPG / 3.65 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 4-1 TARGET: TOR 3 - 4 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TOR00100000018
NYY01003000x47

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff-12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TOR Season Quality

Record21-26
Win%0.447
Run Diff-12
RD/Game-0.255

NYY Season Quality

Record29-19
Win%0.604
Run Diff69
RD/Game1.438

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.9289; margin adjustment: 0.8101; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 2710520 0.190 380.274 53100 20 0.333 0.192 0.264 0.326 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 4617149 0.287 3200.376 55211 01 0.400 0.229 0.322 0.344 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 4115339 0.255 5150.329 55000 02 0.000 0.267 0.335 0.449 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 4516739 0.234 10270.317 44200 00 0.500 0.193 0.283 0.328 OK
Yohendrick PinangoLF 134314 0.326 150.370 43100 10 0.333 0.256 0.305 0.366 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 3411932 0.269 5170.305 44000 00 0.000 0.279 0.312 0.397 OK
Davis Schneider2B 19506 0.120 050.290 43000 11 0.000 0.140 0.294 0.212 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 4014636 0.247 5250.273 44100 01 0.250 0.211 0.231 0.407 OK
Tyler HeinemanC 20569 0.161 020.203 44100 01 0.250 0.127 0.147 0.159 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39358 11 46 0.229

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 3914223 0.162 4220.292 44100 02 0.250 0.162 0.289 0.307 OK
Ben Rice1B 3914743 0.293 14290.397 43112 10 0.333 0.251 0.344 0.552 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 4817346 0.266 16300.398 44210 00 0.500 0.241 0.365 0.455 OK
Cody BellingerLF 4616845 0.268 6300.376 43000 10 0.000 0.225 0.344 0.419 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 4416640 0.241 5180.321 43111 11 0.333 0.290 0.364 0.449 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 3210817 0.157 290.209 44000 01 0.000 0.133 0.180 0.209 OK
Anthony VolpeSS 5134 0.308 030.550 44000 01 0.000 0.255 0.487 0.448 OK
Spencer JonesDH 7183 0.167 020.286 33111 00 0.333 0.208 0.311 0.269 OK
Austin WellsC 3410719 0.178 350.294 33100 01 0.333 0.147 0.255 0.212 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34317 44 36 0.226

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dylan CeaseStarter 951.42.45 1.20613.175 6.073326105 6.0 6 3
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 2221.10.43 1.32714.534 1.0000007 1.0 0 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 2219.71.83 1.2186.414 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 2218.76.26 1.97916.835 0.00110018 0.0 0 1

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Will WarrenStarter 945.03.60 1.22211.859 5.241134103 5.2 4 1
David BednarMiddle Reliever 2119.65.51 1.73511.525 1.12000123 1.1 1 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 2314.43.12 1.87517.528 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2214.71.84 1.0884.37 1.02000119 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-1