| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ MIA | 4 - 5 | 5 - 7 | MIA | MIA | MIA wins 7-5 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| BAL @ TB | 2 - 6 | 1 - 6 | TB | TB | TB wins 6-1 | 59% | enhanced_ml |
| BOS @ KC | 3 - 2 | 2 - 1 | BOS | BOS | BOS wins 2-1 | 56% | enhanced_ml |
| CHW @ SEA | 5 - 4 | 6 - 3 | CHW | CHW | CHW wins 6-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml |
| CIN @ PHI | 4 - 5 | 3 - 4 | PHI | PHI | PHI wins 4-3 | 58% | enhanced_ml |
| CLE @ DET | 4 - 2 | 4 - 1 | CLE | CLE | CLE wins 4-1 | 58% | enhanced_ml |
| HOU @ MIN | 5 - 6 | 2 - 8 | MIN | MIN | MIN wins 8-2 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| LAD @ SD | 6 - 5 | 6 - 3 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 6-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| MIL @ CHC | 3 - 1 | 3 - 2 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 3-2 | 58% | enhanced_ml |
| NYM @ WAS | 4 - 5 | 3 - 4 | WAS | WAS | WAS wins 4-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| OAK @ LAA | 5 - 3 | 5 - 4 | OAK | OAK | OAK wins 5-4 | 57% | enhanced_ml |
| PIT @ STL | 3 - 4 | 2 - 4 | STL | STL | STL wins 4-2 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| SF @ ARI | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | ARI | ARI | ARI wins 4-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| TEX @ COL | 3 - 4 | 4 - 5 | COL | COL | COL wins 5-4 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| TOR @ NYY | 3 - 4 | 1 - 4 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 4-1 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | x | 7 | 8 |
Quality edge: -2.125; margin adjustment: -0.8925; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | DH | 34 | 127 | 32 | 0.252 | 2 | 9 | 0.362 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.369 | 0.407 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 45 | 167 | 41 | 0.246 | 3 | 25 | 0.304 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.210 | 0.262 | 0.366 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 48 | 184 | 51 | 0.277 | 14 | 38 | 0.354 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.305 | 0.443 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 48 | 186 | 51 | 0.274 | 8 | 25 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.207 | 0.257 | 0.325 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 47 | 179 | 39 | 0.218 | 7 | 28 | 0.284 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.272 | 0.394 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 39 | 148 | 41 | 0.277 | 7 | 20 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.269 | 0.391 | OK |
| José Azócar | RF | 5 | 12 | 5 | 0.417 | 0 | 0 | 0.462 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.280 | 0.335 | 0.487 | OK |
| Sandy León | C | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0.286 | 0 | 0 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.221 | 0.234 | 0.301 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 6 | 19 | 1 | 0.053 | 0 | 0 | 0.143 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.146 | 0.221 | 0.208 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 47 | 176 | 56 | 0.318 | 5 | 18 | 0.403 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.290 | 0.372 | 0.476 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 46 | 185 | 62 | 0.335 | 4 | 21 | 0.365 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.298 | 0.323 | 0.428 | OK |
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 19 | 68 | 11 | 0.162 | 0 | 9 | 0.240 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.163 | 0.235 | 0.217 | OK |
| Christopher Morel | 1B | 12 | 40 | 6 | 0.150 | 0 | 1 | 0.209 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.165 | 0.204 | 0.230 | OK |
| Esteury Ruiz | CF | 7 | 23 | 4 | 0.174 | 2 | 3 | 0.174 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.173 | 0.183 | 0.344 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | RF | 25 | 92 | 20 | 0.217 | 1 | 4 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 0.292 | 0.280 | OK |
| Connor Norby | DH | 41 | 138 | 32 | 0.232 | 4 | 14 | 0.335 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.217 | 0.300 | 0.361 | OK |
| Leo Jiménez | 3B | 12 | 36 | 9 | 0.250 | 0 | 1 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.205 | 0.262 | 0.269 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 11 | 37 | 7 | 0.189 | 0 | 6 | 0.231 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.171 | 0.215 | 0.258 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Martín Pérez | Starter | 9 | 35.3 | 2.29 | 0.963 | 7.1 | 28 | 5.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 81 | 5.1 | 4 | 1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 13 | 13.2 | 0.00 | 0.758 | 11.6 | 17 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 19 | 18.4 | 0.49 | 0.924 | 9.3 | 19 | 1.0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 1.0 | 1 | 5 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Braxton Garrett | Starter | 1 | 1.1 | 40.91 | 8.182 | 24.5 | 3 | 1.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 64 | 1.1 | 2 | 4 |
| Tyler Phillips | Middle Reliever | 14 | 25.6 | 1.41 | 1.367 | 8.8 | 25 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 11 | 9.3 | 9.68 | 1.613 | 14.5 | 15 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 19 | 16.8 | 3.21 | 1.607 | 10.2 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| John King | Middle Reliever | 23 | 16.7 | 2.69 | 0.838 | 9.2 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Bender | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.4 | 4.38 | 1.319 | 11.9 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Lake Bachar | Reliever | 15 | 23.3 | 2.70 | 0.901 | 9.7 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
MIA wins 7-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | x | 6 | 8 |
Quality edge: 2.2405; margin adjustment: 0.941; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Taylor Ward | LF | 47 | 168 | 44 | 0.262 | 1 | 13 | 0.419 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.388 | 0.335 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 47 | 200 | 42 | 0.210 | 10 | 24 | 0.264 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.219 | 0.268 | 0.398 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | DH | 29 | 114 | 30 | 0.263 | 7 | 24 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.272 | 0.468 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 48 | 182 | 41 | 0.225 | 8 | 26 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.228 | 0.295 | 0.382 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | C | 33 | 124 | 33 | 0.266 | 6 | 15 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.257 | 0.313 | 0.444 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | CF | 30 | 101 | 27 | 0.267 | 2 | 18 | 0.373 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.322 | 0.350 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.306 | 0.363 | |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 37 | 123 | 23 | 0.187 | 5 | 17 | 0.259 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.267 | 0.355 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | RF | 24 | 72 | 12 | 0.167 | 1 | 7 | 0.256 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.137 | 0.224 | 0.233 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 42 | 170 | 48 | 0.282 | 0 | 8 | 0.319 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.261 | 0.308 | 0.333 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 45 | 175 | 46 | 0.263 | 13 | 27 | 0.353 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.369 | 0.539 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 43 | 161 | 43 | 0.267 | 8 | 35 | 0.366 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.235 | 0.341 | 0.377 | OK |
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 44 | 171 | 53 | 0.310 | 7 | 31 | 0.387 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.314 | 0.372 | 0.515 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 23 | 66 | 16 | 0.242 | 1 | 8 | 0.362 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.353 | 0.336 | OK |
| Jonny DeLuca | RF | 24 | 91 | 25 | 0.275 | 1 | 11 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.274 | 0.313 | 0.403 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 36 | 133 | 23 | 0.173 | 3 | 14 | 0.240 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.242 | 0.296 | 0.358 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 18 | 43 | 11 | 0.256 | 0 | 4 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.313 | 0.306 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 34 | 106 | 24 | 0.226 | 0 | 14 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.320 | 0.358 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Bradish | Starter | 9 | 46.3 | 4.28 | 1.555 | 10.1 | 52 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 94 | 4.2 | 3 | 4 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 21 | 18.6 | 0.48 | 0.484 | 11.6 | 24 | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 1.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Anthony Nunez | Middle Reliever | 19 | 19.7 | 2.74 | 1.015 | 11.4 | 25 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Griffin Jax | Starter | 14 | 20.2 | 3.12 | 1.485 | 8.0 | 18 | 4.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 82 | 4.1 | 4 | 0 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 21 | 18.4 | 2.93 | 1.141 | 11.2 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | Middle Reliever | 11 | 7.4 | 6.08 | 2.297 | 15.8 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 21 | 18.6 | 2.90 | 0.860 | 8.2 | 17 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ian Seymour | Middle Reliever | 19 | 18.5 | 3.89 | 1.297 | 12.6 | 26 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
TB wins 6-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| KC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Quality edge: -0.1095; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jarren Duran | LF | 40 | 164 | 30 | 0.183 | 4 | 19 | 0.250 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.176 | 0.239 | 0.281 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 40 | 144 | 40 | 0.278 | 3 | 15 | 0.350 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.273 | 0.324 | 0.418 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 46 | 175 | 51 | 0.291 | 6 | 19 | 0.362 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.250 | 0.318 | 0.377 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 44 | 158 | 40 | 0.253 | 10 | 27 | 0.356 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.228 | 0.307 | 0.468 | OK |
| Andruw Monasterio | DH | 17 | 66 | 16 | 0.242 | 1 | 7 | 0.296 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.281 | 0.368 | OK |
| Nick Sogard | 2B | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0.286 | 0 | 1 | 0.375 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.233 | 0.321 | 0.429 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 28 | 88 | 20 | 0.227 | 2 | 3 | 0.292 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.219 | 0.273 | 0.334 | OK |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | SS | 13 | 37 | 7 | 0.189 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.254 | 0.238 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 41 | 138 | 23 | 0.167 | 1 | 13 | 0.248 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.141 | 0.196 | 0.222 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 45 | 182 | 48 | 0.264 | 3 | 18 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.229 | 0.293 | 0.343 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 48 | 189 | 57 | 0.302 | 7 | 23 | 0.374 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.351 | 0.451 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | DH | 46 | 179 | 36 | 0.201 | 7 | 20 | 0.244 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.237 | 0.353 | OK |
| Lane Thomas | CF | 23 | 71 | 13 | 0.183 | 1 | 5 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.173 | 0.302 | 0.235 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 37 | 131 | 33 | 0.252 | 4 | 8 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.303 | 0.438 | OK |
| Starling Marte | LF | 12 | 39 | 13 | 0.333 | 0 | 2 | 0.386 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.291 | 0.344 | 0.400 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 45 | 171 | 34 | 0.199 | 5 | 22 | 0.281 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.176 | 0.259 | 0.271 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | 2B | 13 | 40 | 7 | 0.175 | 0 | 7 | 0.306 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.165 | 0.267 | 0.243 | OK |
| Carter Jensen | C | 39 | 132 | 30 | 0.227 | 6 | 19 | 0.325 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.293 | 0.296 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.133 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ranger Suarez | Starter | 8 | 43.4 | 2.49 | 0.968 | 8.3 | 40 | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 92 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.2 | 0.56 | 0.864 | 12.2 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever | 18 | 18.1 | 2.98 | 1.105 | 11.4 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 8 | 6.3 | 0.00 | 0.952 | 12.9 | 9 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bailey Falter | Starter | 3 | 5.1 | 10.59 | 2.745 | 7.1 | 4 | 3.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 72 | 3.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.4 | 3.42 | 1.522 | 8.3 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick Mears | Middle Reliever | 18 | 13.8 | 3.26 | 1.522 | 7.8 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.9 | 2.01 | 0.894 | 13.1 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| John Schreiber | Middle Reliever | 20 | 15.3 | 4.12 | 1.765 | 5.3 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Lange | Middle Reliever | 19 | 20.5 | 5.71 | 1.561 | 9.7 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
BOS wins 2-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| SEA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.1821; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 26 | 90 | 25 | 0.278 | 1 | 9 | 0.377 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.281 | 0.330 | 0.398 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 45 | 162 | 39 | 0.241 | 17 | 32 | 0.380 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.262 | 0.399 | 0.559 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 44 | 163 | 39 | 0.239 | 11 | 29 | 0.364 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.250 | 0.350 | 0.531 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 44 | 164 | 38 | 0.232 | 13 | 31 | 0.330 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.249 | 0.317 | 0.551 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 43 | 162 | 43 | 0.265 | 3 | 10 | 0.339 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.220 | 0.303 | 0.323 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 34 | 123 | 31 | 0.252 | 3 | 16 | 0.299 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.316 | 0.442 | OK |
| Jarred Kelenic | RF | 13 | 40 | 9 | 0.225 | 1 | 4 | 0.279 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.262 | 0.329 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 33 | 100 | 25 | 0.250 | 2 | 11 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.285 | 0.385 | OK |
| Edgar Quero | C | 23 | 79 | 13 | 0.165 | 0 | 7 | 0.242 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.159 | 0.229 | 0.195 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 37 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 0.297 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Rob Refsnyder | DH | 12 | 36 | 4 | 0.111 | 1 | 2 | 0.175 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.168 | 0.229 | 0.258 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 49 | 195 | 49 | 0.251 | 8 | 21 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.272 | 0.377 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 49 | 177 | 54 | 0.305 | 4 | 19 | 0.388 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.301 | 0.372 | 0.449 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 46 | 181 | 47 | 0.260 | 5 | 22 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.271 | 0.337 | 0.359 | OK |
| Patrick Wisdom | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.301 | 0.367 | |
| Connor Joe | RF | 7 | 21 | 3 | 0.143 | 1 | 1 | 0.217 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.185 | 0.252 | 0.362 | OK |
| Mitch Garver | C | 15 | 46 | 8 | 0.174 | 1 | 3 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.176 | 0.344 | 0.275 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 49 | 173 | 42 | 0.243 | 3 | 26 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.260 | 0.296 | OK |
| Colt Emerson | SS | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0.167 | 1 | 3 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.294 | 0.343 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Anthony Kay | Starter | 9 | 38.9 | 4.86 | 1.620 | 6.7 | 29 | 4.1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 88 | 4.1 | 7 | 3 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever | 1 | 2.1 | 8.57 | 1.905 | 4.3 | 1 | 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 2.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryce Miller | Starter | 1 | 5.1 | 3.53 | 1.765 | 5.3 | 3 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 89 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.3 | 5.20 | 1.329 | 15.6 | 30 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever | 23 | 16.8 | 3.21 | 1.667 | 9.6 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cooper Criswell | Middle Reliever | 17 | 18.4 | 2.93 | 1.087 | 8.3 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Alex Hoppe | Middle Reliever | 7 | 8.4 | 6.43 | 1.548 | 11.8 | 11 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
CHW wins 6-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | x | 4 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.4479; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Matt McLain | 2B | 44 | 166 | 37 | 0.223 | 5 | 19 | 0.325 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.251 | 0.341 | 0.457 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 48 | 192 | 57 | 0.297 | 11 | 31 | 0.362 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.299 | 0.359 | 0.509 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | 1B | 45 | 162 | 43 | 0.265 | 7 | 18 | 0.337 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.339 | 0.426 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | DH | 48 | 181 | 45 | 0.249 | 11 | 32 | 0.340 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.232 | 0.333 | 0.420 | OK |
| Dane Myers | CF | 10 | 35 | 8 | 0.229 | 3 | 5 | 0.372 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.228 | 0.344 | 0.431 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 20 | 69 | 20 | 0.290 | 6 | 19 | 0.410 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.256 | 0.370 | 0.551 | OK |
| Blake Dunn | RF | 4 | 14 | 5 | 0.357 | 1 | 1 | 0.471 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.260 | 0.377 | 0.459 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 34 | 115 | 19 | 0.165 | 3 | 13 | 0.258 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.147 | 0.236 | 0.257 | OK |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3B | 36 | 116 | 17 | 0.147 | 2 | 5 | 0.202 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.157 | 0.211 | 0.246 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 38 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trea Turner | DH | 46 | 195 | 46 | 0.236 | 4 | 15 | 0.282 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.239 | 0.283 | 0.332 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 47 | 173 | 48 | 0.277 | 12 | 30 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.290 | 0.387 | 0.563 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 43 | 160 | 35 | 0.219 | 4 | 21 | 0.277 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.288 | 0.336 | 0.452 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 40 | 155 | 51 | 0.329 | 4 | 22 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.283 | 0.310 | 0.398 | OK |
| Adolis García | RF | 45 | 166 | 35 | 0.211 | 3 | 13 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.166 | 0.228 | 0.251 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 37 | 137 | 30 | 0.219 | 5 | 21 | 0.270 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.273 | 0.447 | OK |
| Edmundo Sosa | SS | 20 | 66 | 14 | 0.212 | 1 | 9 | 0.243 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.204 | 0.232 | 0.293 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 39 | 132 | 36 | 0.273 | 2 | 11 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.315 | 0.406 | OK |
| Rafael Marchán | C | 13 | 46 | 4 | 0.087 | 1 | 2 | 0.143 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.118 | 0.145 | 0.181 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chase Burns | Starter | 9 | 52.3 | 1.89 | 1.013 | 9.5 | 55 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 112 | 6.0 | 7 | 2 |
| Graham Ashcraft | Middle Reliever | 22 | 21.7 | 2.49 | 1.290 | 10.4 | 25 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.3 | 3.64 | 1.329 | 9.4 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jesús Luzardo | Starter | 9 | 47.8 | 5.27 | 1.381 | 11.5 | 61 | 5.1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 111 | 5.1 | 7 | 2 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 13 | 12.2 | 1.48 | 1.066 | 15.5 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.5 | 4.38 | 1.297 | 11.7 | 24 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 22 | 12.7 | 7.09 | 2.520 | 16.3 | 23 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.8 | 2.43 | 1.284 | 7.3 | 12 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
PHI wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Quality edge: -0.7418; margin adjustment: -0.3116; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Daniel Schneemann | CF | 34 | 117 | 30 | 0.256 | 4 | 16 | 0.336 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.223 | 0.305 | 0.354 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 49 | 179 | 43 | 0.240 | 8 | 22 | 0.369 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.314 | 0.431 | 0.547 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | DH | 41 | 158 | 43 | 0.272 | 7 | 30 | 0.357 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.239 | 0.332 | 0.427 | OK |
| Kyle Manzardo | 1B | 33 | 120 | 24 | 0.200 | 3 | 12 | 0.276 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.304 | 0.397 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 18 | 64 | 18 | 0.281 | 1 | 7 | 0.410 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 0.394 | 0.369 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | RF | 36 | 140 | 40 | 0.286 | 9 | 24 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.279 | 0.311 | 0.561 | OK |
| Steven Kwan | LF | 44 | 165 | 33 | 0.200 | 1 | 10 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.186 | 0.339 | 0.245 | OK |
| Austin Hedges | C | 19 | 59 | 15 | 0.254 | 1 | 4 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.291 | 0.323 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 47 | 153 | 44 | 0.288 | 4 | 26 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.278 | 0.362 | 0.429 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Matt Vierling | CF | 30 | 107 | 23 | 0.215 | 3 | 16 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.204 | 0.278 | 0.411 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | 3B | 45 | 171 | 50 | 0.292 | 2 | 16 | 0.398 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.351 | 0.359 | OK |
| Jahmai Jones | DH | 10 | 26 | 6 | 0.231 | 1 | 3 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.188 | 0.251 | 0.332 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 38 | 144 | 36 | 0.250 | 8 | 27 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.304 | 0.428 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 47 | 170 | 56 | 0.329 | 4 | 24 | 0.424 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.308 | 0.397 | 0.443 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 45 | 155 | 30 | 0.194 | 6 | 17 | 0.308 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.162 | 0.265 | 0.290 | OK |
| Wenceel Pérez | RF | 25 | 89 | 13 | 0.146 | 0 | 5 | 0.191 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.154 | 0.199 | 0.197 | OK |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 2B | 14 | 42 | 7 | 0.167 | 0 | 4 | 0.239 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.157 | 0.227 | 0.281 | OK |
| Zack Short | SS | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.286 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.118 | 0.294 | 0.173 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Parker Messick | Starter | 9 | 51.8 | 2.43 | 1.023 | 10.1 | 58 | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 91 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 21 | 21.2 | 2.97 | 1.132 | 13.2 | 31 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever | 23 | 15.7 | 2.29 | 1.083 | 20.6 | 36 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Festa | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.1 | 6.15 | 1.491 | 11.7 | 21 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Keider Montero | Starter | 8 | 42.7 | 3.79 | 1.030 | 6.5 | 31 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 109 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 |
| Kenley Jansen | Middle Reliever | 14 | 11.4 | 2.37 | 0.965 | 14.2 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.8 | 0.91 | 1.414 | 6.4 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Burch Smith | Middle Reliever | 11 | 14.4 | 3.12 | 1.458 | 11.9 | 19 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
CLE wins 4-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| MIN | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 8 | 9 |
Quality edge: 1.1454; margin adjustment: 0.4811; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 11 | 46 | 11 | 0.239 | 0 | 1 | 0.294 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.220 | 0.268 | 0.335 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 42 | 154 | 39 | 0.253 | 4 | 18 | 0.347 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.288 | 0.350 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 49 | 177 | 56 | 0.316 | 15 | 31 | 0.427 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.300 | 0.408 | 0.598 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 48 | 175 | 47 | 0.269 | 11 | 31 | 0.342 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.283 | 0.427 | OK |
| Zach Dezenzo | RF | 8 | 26 | 6 | 0.231 | 1 | 2 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.219 | 0.272 | 0.356 | OK |
| Zach Cole | LF | 11 | 37 | 7 | 0.189 | 2 | 4 | 0.211 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.199 | 0.207 | 0.346 | OK |
| Jake Meyers | CF | 10 | 37 | 9 | 0.243 | 1 | 4 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.233 | 0.304 | 0.394 | OK |
| Braden Shewmake | 2B | 13 | 49 | 14 | 0.286 | 2 | 6 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.237 | 0.358 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 23 | 75 | 20 | 0.267 | 3 | 13 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.176 | 0.266 | 0.304 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Byron Buxton | DH | 40 | 169 | 44 | 0.260 | 15 | 23 | 0.319 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.285 | 0.341 | 0.672 | OK |
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 30 | 101 | 28 | 0.277 | 2 | 12 | 0.397 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.272 | 0.380 | 0.437 | OK |
| Josh Bell | 1B | 43 | 164 | 36 | 0.220 | 5 | 27 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.291 | 0.422 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 2B | 31 | 108 | 27 | 0.250 | 4 | 12 | 0.352 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.282 | 0.348 | 0.498 | OK |
| Austin Martin | RF | 32 | 112 | 34 | 0.304 | 1 | 10 | 0.423 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.261 | 0.368 | 0.345 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | SS | 43 | 160 | 39 | 0.244 | 5 | 22 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.215 | 0.262 | 0.315 | OK |
| Victor Caratini | C | 30 | 101 | 19 | 0.188 | 1 | 14 | 0.293 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.171 | 0.242 | 0.213 | OK |
| Tristan Gray | 3B | 20 | 69 | 15 | 0.217 | 3 | 14 | 0.257 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.198 | 0.235 | 0.304 | OK |
| James Outman | CF | 12 | 40 | 9 | 0.225 | 0 | 3 | 0.244 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.247 | 0.379 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jason Alexander | Starter | 2 | 6.1 | 14.75 | 2.623 | 8.9 | 6 | 3.0 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 77 | 3.0 | 4 | 7 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 17 | 17.2 | 3.66 | 1.570 | 8.4 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever | 16 | 13.6 | 8.60 | 2.353 | 13.9 | 21 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.8 | 5.13 | 1.392 | 9.1 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| AJ Blubaugh | Middle Reliever | 19 | 26.8 | 5.04 | 1.567 | 7.7 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | Middle Reliever | 22 | 15.8 | 4.56 | 1.392 | 9.1 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zebby Matthews | Starter | 1 | 7.0 | 0.00 | 0.714 | 6.4 | 5 | 5.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 87 | 5.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin Topa | Middle Reliever | 24 | 15.1 | 10.13 | 2.517 | 8.9 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Orze | Middle Reliever | 19 | 19.3 | 4.20 | 1.606 | 8.4 | 18 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Taylor Rogers | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.7 | 3.06 | 1.769 | 8.6 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Luis García | Middle Reliever | 8 | 8.2 | 6.59 | 1.463 | 2.2 | 2 | 0.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever | 12 | 17.2 | 5.23 | 1.744 | 8.4 | 16 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 |
MIN wins 8-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
Quality edge: -1.8603; margin adjustment: -0.7813; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 43 | 166 | 44 | 0.265 | 7 | 24 | 0.392 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.300 | 0.411 | 0.489 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 13 | 54 | 10 | 0.185 | 4 | 9 | 0.241 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.203 | 0.247 | 0.413 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 45 | 173 | 44 | 0.254 | 4 | 20 | 0.338 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.297 | 0.328 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 45 | 168 | 43 | 0.256 | 4 | 22 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.349 | 0.386 | OK |
| Will Smith | C | 34 | 130 | 33 | 0.254 | 4 | 19 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.216 | 0.288 | 0.339 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 44 | 153 | 40 | 0.261 | 12 | 19 | 0.362 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.219 | 0.324 | 0.450 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 47 | 176 | 53 | 0.301 | 10 | 41 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.301 | 0.438 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 43 | 156 | 41 | 0.263 | 5 | 23 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.272 | 0.336 | 0.424 | OK |
| Hyeseong Kim | 2B | 31 | 94 | 26 | 0.277 | 1 | 10 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.318 | 0.311 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 45 | 172 | 40 | 0.233 | 0 | 14 | 0.308 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.265 | 0.237 | OK |
| Miguel Andujar | DH | 34 | 129 | 39 | 0.302 | 4 | 15 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.275 | 0.292 | 0.489 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | LF | 36 | 121 | 30 | 0.248 | 7 | 17 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.376 | 0.610 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 45 | 161 | 29 | 0.180 | 6 | 20 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.154 | 0.251 | 0.263 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 45 | 165 | 42 | 0.255 | 6 | 21 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.218 | 0.288 | 0.302 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 44 | 173 | 35 | 0.202 | 4 | 19 | 0.270 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.148 | 0.212 | 0.244 | OK |
| Nick Castellanos | RF | 24 | 84 | 17 | 0.202 | 2 | 16 | 0.236 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.201 | 0.235 | 0.345 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 20 | 69 | 20 | 0.290 | 4 | 12 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.267 | 0.416 | OK |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 25 | 81 | 13 | 0.160 | 0 | 3 | 0.247 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.157 | 0.223 | 0.222 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Emmet Sheehan | Starter | 8 | 39.8 | 4.75 | 1.307 | 11.1 | 49 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 100 | 5.1 | 7 | 2 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.4 | 1.55 | 0.632 | 9.3 | 18 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 20 | 14.7 | 3.06 | 1.088 | 14.1 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Hurt | Middle Reliever | 13 | 13.0 | 0.69 | 0.692 | 11.1 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Griffin Canning | Starter | 3 | 10.3 | 11.36 | 2.330 | 12.2 | 14 | 3.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 77 | 3.1 | 3 | 5 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 21 | 21.3 | 0.85 | 0.845 | 19.0 | 45 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.5 | 1.24 | 1.034 | 4.3 | 7 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.5 | 6.00 | 1.436 | 12.9 | 28 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | Middle Reliever | 13 | 11.8 | 3.81 | 1.271 | 12.2 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
LAD wins 6-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.7326; margin adjustment: -0.3077; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 12 | 54 | 17 | 0.315 | 1 | 5 | 0.351 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.282 | 0.320 | 0.450 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 42 | 157 | 44 | 0.280 | 6 | 27 | 0.403 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.244 | 0.369 | 0.401 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 42 | 170 | 49 | 0.288 | 3 | 27 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.283 | 0.355 | 0.365 | OK |
| Christian Yelich | DH | 16 | 62 | 18 | 0.290 | 2 | 9 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.317 | 0.467 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 33 | 114 | 27 | 0.237 | 2 | 23 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.337 | 0.408 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 35 | 132 | 39 | 0.295 | 7 | 26 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.327 | 0.399 | 0.554 | OK |
| Luis Rengifo | 3B | 32 | 120 | 26 | 0.217 | 0 | 14 | 0.280 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.235 | 0.291 | 0.310 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 38 | 141 | 31 | 0.220 | 3 | 13 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.219 | 0.276 | 0.300 | OK |
| David Hamilton | SS | 33 | 100 | 23 | 0.230 | 0 | 7 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 0.287 | 0.233 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0.257 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 46 | 189 | 48 | 0.254 | 4 | 29 | 0.339 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.207 | 0.295 | 0.302 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 46 | 169 | 40 | 0.237 | 4 | 26 | 0.364 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.249 | 0.375 | 0.426 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 46 | 187 | 46 | 0.246 | 4 | 15 | 0.333 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.331 | 0.347 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 46 | 171 | 38 | 0.222 | 10 | 20 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 0.324 | 0.366 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 32 | 123 | 33 | 0.268 | 7 | 17 | 0.368 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.315 | 0.363 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | DH | 31 | 98 | 23 | 0.235 | 6 | 18 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.173 | 0.237 | 0.309 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 45 | 154 | 29 | 0.188 | 7 | 25 | 0.297 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.274 | 0.326 | OK |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 47 | 173 | 40 | 0.231 | 5 | 20 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 0.251 | 0.324 | OK |
| Miguel Amaya | C | 20 | 65 | 16 | 0.246 | 3 | 9 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.204 | 0.283 | 0.344 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Misiorowski | Starter | 9 | 50.3 | 2.15 | 0.915 | 14.3 | 80 | 5.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 102 | 5.2 | 8 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.7 | 5.16 | 1.338 | 10.3 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 21 | 26.2 | 2.40 | 1.450 | 15.1 | 44 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 16 | 16.0 | 3.38 | 1.125 | 11.2 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ben Brown | Starter | 14 | 32.5 | 1.66 | 0.892 | 9.4 | 34 | 5.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 88 | 5.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 10 | 8.3 | 2.17 | 1.325 | 9.8 | 9 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Phil Maton | Middle Reliever | 14 | 10.0 | 11.70 | 2.200 | 14.4 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.1 | 3.68 | 1.637 | 12.1 | 23 | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 43 | 2.0 | 3 | 1 |
MIL wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | x | 4 | 10 |
Quality edge: -0.2609; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 39 | 144 | 37 | 0.257 | 3 | 17 | 0.318 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.292 | 0.343 | 0.393 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 47 | 192 | 42 | 0.219 | 3 | 21 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.265 | 0.308 | OK |
| Juan Soto | DH | 31 | 118 | 33 | 0.280 | 6 | 16 | 0.381 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.284 | 0.387 | 0.492 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | 1B | 36 | 133 | 30 | 0.226 | 6 | 22 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.251 | 0.389 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 47 | 171 | 39 | 0.228 | 3 | 17 | 0.283 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.288 | 0.352 | OK |
| Tyrone Taylor | CF | 20 | 62 | 14 | 0.226 | 1 | 6 | 0.250 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.223 | 0.249 | 0.336 | OK |
| Nick Morabito | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.252 | 0.325 | 0.395 | |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 37 | 133 | 33 | 0.248 | 3 | 19 | 0.308 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.255 | 0.315 | 0.438 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 17 | 53 | 9 | 0.170 | 0 | 5 | 0.214 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.177 | 0.212 | 0.284 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 32 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0.219 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | RF | 48 | 184 | 46 | 0.250 | 12 | 30 | 0.395 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.387 | 0.475 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 35 | 127 | 34 | 0.268 | 3 | 21 | 0.299 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.297 | 0.438 | OK |
| Jose Fernandez | DH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.253 | 0.285 | 0.347 | |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 46 | 173 | 52 | 0.301 | 9 | 39 | 0.386 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.285 | 0.353 | 0.461 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 47 | 190 | 50 | 0.263 | 7 | 25 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.247 | 0.303 | 0.442 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.228 | 0.297 | 0.374 | |
| Jorbit Vivas | 3B | 27 | 80 | 20 | 0.250 | 0 | 3 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.220 | 0.301 | 0.309 | OK |
| Drew Millas | C | 23 | 72 | 13 | 0.181 | 1 | 6 | 0.253 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.181 | 0.253 | 0.273 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | 2B | 40 | 130 | 25 | 0.192 | 0 | 14 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.141 | 0.260 | 0.179 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nolan McLean | Starter | 9 | 51.4 | 2.98 | 0.973 | 11.2 | 64 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 98 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.5 | 3.72 | 1.310 | 14.9 | 24 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 19 | 18.7 | 3.85 | 1.230 | 10.1 | 21 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 20 | 15.3 | 1.76 | 1.373 | 12.4 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Foster Griffin | Starter | 9 | 50.3 | 3.58 | 1.153 | 8.8 | 49 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 95 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Gus Varland | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.4 | 4.68 | 1.753 | 10.5 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| PJ Poulin | Middle Reliever | 23 | 17.7 | 3.56 | 1.808 | 8.1 | 16 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 14 | 26.2 | 3.44 | 1.260 | 7.9 | 23 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Richard Lovelady | Middle Reliever | 12 | 10.0 | 2.70 | 2.200 | 11.7 | 13 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
WAS wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
Quality edge: -1.2333; margin adjustment: -0.518; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shea Langeliers | DH | 42 | 173 | 58 | 0.335 | 12 | 27 | 0.396 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.318 | 0.382 | 0.519 | OK |
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 46 | 165 | 44 | 0.267 | 8 | 29 | 0.427 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.423 | 0.548 | OK |
| Colby Thomas | LF | 7 | 22 | 7 | 0.318 | 1 | 2 | 0.375 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.334 | 0.456 | OK |
| Brent Rooker | RF | 30 | 115 | 22 | 0.191 | 6 | 21 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.200 | 0.283 | 0.365 | OK |
| Henry Bolte | CF | 5 | 17 | 6 | 0.353 | 0 | 2 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.273 | 0.316 | 0.339 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 24 | 85 | 21 | 0.247 | 5 | 13 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.282 | 0.425 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | C | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0.083 | 0 | 0 | 0.083 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.203 | 0.270 | 0.363 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 38 | 133 | 38 | 0.286 | 1 | 14 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.290 | 0.317 | OK |
| Darell Hernaiz | SS | 22 | 68 | 17 | 0.250 | 1 | 5 | 0.329 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.300 | 0.293 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 48 | 187 | 42 | 0.225 | 8 | 22 | 0.336 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.331 | 0.454 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 47 | 167 | 39 | 0.234 | 11 | 23 | 0.393 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.178 | 0.324 | 0.332 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 3B | 20 | 75 | 19 | 0.253 | 2 | 10 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.201 | 0.283 | 0.350 | OK |
| Jorge Soler | DH | 44 | 159 | 34 | 0.214 | 8 | 28 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.174 | 0.254 | 0.323 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 48 | 183 | 47 | 0.257 | 6 | 27 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.239 | 0.333 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | 2B | 30 | 106 | 27 | 0.255 | 5 | 11 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.207 | 0.254 | 0.364 | OK |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | 43 | 170 | 43 | 0.253 | 3 | 20 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.273 | 0.315 | OK |
| Logan O'Hoppe | C | 27 | 88 | 17 | 0.193 | 1 | 8 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.158 | 0.240 | 0.203 | OK |
| Jose Siri | LF | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 0.196 | 0.261 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Lopez | Starter | 9 | 39.4 | 5.94 | 1.751 | 6.9 | 30 | 4.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 83 | 4.1 | 5 | 3 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 24 | 16.4 | 3.29 | 2.195 | 13.2 | 24 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Joel Kuhnel | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.4 | 3.36 | 1.343 | 5.4 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.3 | 1.97 | 0.874 | 9.8 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | Middle Reliever | 21 | 17.1 | 7.89 | 1.871 | 11.6 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Reid Detmers | Starter | 9 | 47.0 | 4.60 | 1.319 | 10.1 | 53 | 5.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 97 | 5.1 | 6 | 3 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 16 | 19.9 | 4.97 | 1.357 | 13.1 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 16 | 19.3 | 3.26 | 1.140 | 11.2 | 24 | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 4 | 3.2 | 5.62 | 1.250 | 16.9 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
OAK wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| STL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.2033; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 38 | 148 | 48 | 0.324 | 0 | 19 | 0.383 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.289 | 0.339 | 0.353 | OK |
| Konnor Griffin | SS | 39 | 148 | 39 | 0.264 | 3 | 19 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.307 | 0.389 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 45 | 163 | 42 | 0.258 | 4 | 26 | 0.390 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.362 | 0.356 | OK |
| Marcell Ozuna | DH | 37 | 147 | 27 | 0.184 | 5 | 16 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.165 | 0.245 | 0.307 | OK |
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 44 | 188 | 49 | 0.261 | 10 | 32 | 0.325 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.296 | 0.386 | OK |
| Jhostynxon Garcia | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.313 | 0.397 | |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 40 | 156 | 39 | 0.250 | 12 | 31 | 0.348 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.219 | 0.310 | 0.510 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | 1B | 14 | 48 | 10 | 0.208 | 0 | 2 | 0.269 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.211 | 0.258 | 0.281 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 28 | 92 | 13 | 0.141 | 2 | 8 | 0.240 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.123 | 0.213 | 0.224 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 44 | 170 | 40 | 0.235 | 8 | 22 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.222 | 0.320 | 0.375 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 46 | 170 | 45 | 0.265 | 4 | 20 | 0.395 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.361 | 0.382 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 43 | 175 | 49 | 0.280 | 6 | 33 | 0.340 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.289 | 0.344 | 0.426 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 44 | 171 | 52 | 0.304 | 13 | 34 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.344 | 0.549 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 39 | 142 | 33 | 0.232 | 4 | 22 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.239 | 0.330 | 0.323 | OK |
| Nathan Church | LF | 36 | 134 | 33 | 0.246 | 4 | 15 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.275 | 0.345 | OK |
| César Prieto | SS | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.211 | 0.289 | |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 29 | 98 | 20 | 0.204 | 4 | 9 | 0.248 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.168 | 0.201 | 0.313 | OK |
| Victor Scott II | CF | 38 | 109 | 21 | 0.193 | 2 | 7 | 0.252 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.193 | 0.246 | 0.300 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Mitch Keller | Starter | 9 | 52.2 | 3.62 | 1.092 | 6.6 | 38 | 6.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 112 | 6.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 22 | 21.4 | 2.52 | 0.888 | 10.9 | 26 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.4 | 3.91 | 1.304 | 5.9 | 12 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Matthew Liberatore | Starter | 9 | 46.3 | 4.47 | 1.533 | 6.6 | 34 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 85 | 5.0 | 8 | 2 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 22 | 20.6 | 2.62 | 0.971 | 10.9 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 22 | 17.9 | 4.02 | 1.508 | 9.6 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.4 | 4.39 | 1.524 | 8.8 | 16 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
STL wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | x | 4 | 7 |
Quality edge: 0.5045; margin adjustment: 0.2119; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Harrison Bader | CF | 20 | 74 | 13 | 0.176 | 4 | 9 | 0.205 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.246 | 0.464 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 45 | 176 | 57 | 0.324 | 2 | 17 | 0.365 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.327 | 0.381 | 0.510 | OK |
| Casey Schmitt | DH | 39 | 148 | 44 | 0.297 | 8 | 21 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.300 | 0.500 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 48 | 183 | 44 | 0.240 | 5 | 19 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.276 | 0.346 | OK |
| Willy Adames | SS | 47 | 189 | 45 | 0.238 | 4 | 14 | 0.273 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.266 | 0.300 | 0.425 | OK |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 46 | 178 | 39 | 0.219 | 1 | 16 | 0.294 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.188 | 0.254 | 0.290 | OK |
| Drew Gilbert | LF | 23 | 76 | 17 | 0.224 | 2 | 7 | 0.289 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.247 | 0.302 | OK |
| Daniel Susac | C | 7 | 27 | 12 | 0.444 | 0 | 6 | 0.483 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.305 | 0.426 | OK |
| Will Brennan | RF | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.156 | 0.170 | 0.233 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 41 | 170 | 38 | 0.224 | 5 | 17 | 0.273 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.289 | 0.358 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 44 | 155 | 44 | 0.284 | 7 | 24 | 0.392 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.315 | 0.423 | 0.624 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 43 | 150 | 34 | 0.227 | 2 | 12 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.227 | 0.347 | 0.341 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 43 | 146 | 40 | 0.274 | 7 | 25 | 0.349 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.267 | 0.352 | 0.478 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 37 | 154 | 50 | 0.325 | 7 | 28 | 0.342 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.312 | 0.439 | OK |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | LF | 21 | 79 | 18 | 0.228 | 1 | 9 | 0.295 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.233 | 0.303 | 0.361 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 22 | 83 | 21 | 0.253 | 2 | 12 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.318 | 0.412 | OK |
| Adrian Del Castillo | DH | 24 | 88 | 15 | 0.170 | 2 | 13 | 0.221 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.151 | 0.213 | 0.250 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 9 | 31 | 9 | 0.290 | 0 | 6 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.312 | 0.397 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 31 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Landen Roupp | Starter | 9 | 47.6 | 3.59 | 1.176 | 11.0 | 58 | 5.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 106 | 5.1 | 3 | 1 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.2 | 2.09 | 1.279 | 11.0 | 21 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.4 | 2.45 | 0.870 | 7.8 | 16 | 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0.2 | 2 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ryne Nelson | Starter | 9 | 42.2 | 5.76 | 1.232 | 9.2 | 43 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 81 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 7.5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.476 | 8.6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
ARI wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: -1.1443; margin adjustment: -0.4806; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Andrew McCutchen | DH | 12 | 34 | 9 | 0.265 | 1 | 3 | 0.324 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.315 | 0.384 | OK |
| Justin Foscue | 2B | 6 | 20 | 6 | 0.300 | 2 | 4 | 0.333 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.298 | 0.490 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 45 | 176 | 46 | 0.261 | 4 | 13 | 0.342 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.196 | 0.273 | 0.310 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 43 | 167 | 50 | 0.299 | 5 | 20 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.290 | 0.398 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | SS | 33 | 113 | 32 | 0.283 | 3 | 15 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.257 | 0.319 | 0.406 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 44 | 170 | 39 | 0.229 | 7 | 28 | 0.275 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.258 | 0.308 | 0.458 | OK |
| Alejandro Osuna | LF | 16 | 42 | 10 | 0.238 | 0 | 5 | 0.407 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.232 | 0.333 | 0.293 | OK |
| Danny Jansen | C | 28 | 90 | 17 | 0.189 | 2 | 9 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.162 | 0.258 | 0.286 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 41 | 131 | 23 | 0.176 | 5 | 13 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.149 | 0.266 | 0.259 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Willi Castro | 3B | 35 | 127 | 32 | 0.252 | 2 | 16 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.246 | 0.300 | 0.368 | OK |
| Mickey Moniak | LF | 35 | 134 | 41 | 0.306 | 12 | 27 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.311 | 0.540 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 41 | 164 | 40 | 0.244 | 11 | 18 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.288 | 0.440 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 44 | 164 | 45 | 0.274 | 5 | 23 | 0.355 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.336 | 0.385 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 42 | 153 | 32 | 0.209 | 1 | 13 | 0.261 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.269 | 0.315 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | DH | 36 | 131 | 42 | 0.321 | 2 | 19 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.281 | 0.337 | 0.414 | OK |
| Brenton Doyle | CF | 29 | 97 | 16 | 0.165 | 1 | 4 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.167 | 0.250 | 0.239 | OK |
| Jake McCarthy | RF | 31 | 93 | 27 | 0.290 | 2 | 16 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.266 | 0.307 | 0.445 | OK |
| Edouard Julien | 2B | 32 | 113 | 27 | 0.239 | 2 | 12 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.148 | 0.233 | 0.225 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.265 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tyler Alexander | Starter | 20 | 18.2 | 2.47 | 1.593 | 7.9 | 16 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 73 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 17 | 20.5 | 0.88 | 0.439 | 7.5 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 17 | 19.3 | 1.87 | 0.777 | 4.2 | 9 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cole Winn | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.9 | 5.33 | 1.598 | 12.2 | 23 | 0.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sammy Peralta | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 64 | 3.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.6 | 7.05 | 2.108 | 8.7 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 13 | 25.3 | 1.42 | 0.909 | 8.9 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 19 | 20.2 | 4.46 | 1.683 | 12.0 | 27 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever | 20 | 13.0 | 4.15 | 1.923 | 14.5 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Middle Reliever | 21 | 13.9 | 5.18 | 1.655 | 8.4 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
COL wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| NYY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 7 |
Quality edge: 1.9289; margin adjustment: 0.8101; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| George Springer | DH | 27 | 105 | 20 | 0.190 | 3 | 8 | 0.274 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.192 | 0.264 | 0.326 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 46 | 171 | 49 | 0.287 | 3 | 20 | 0.376 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.229 | 0.322 | 0.344 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 41 | 153 | 39 | 0.255 | 5 | 15 | 0.329 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.335 | 0.449 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 45 | 167 | 39 | 0.234 | 10 | 27 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.193 | 0.283 | 0.328 | OK |
| Yohendrick Pinango | LF | 13 | 43 | 14 | 0.326 | 1 | 5 | 0.370 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.256 | 0.305 | 0.366 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | RF | 34 | 119 | 32 | 0.269 | 5 | 17 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.312 | 0.397 | OK |
| Davis Schneider | 2B | 19 | 50 | 6 | 0.120 | 0 | 5 | 0.290 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.140 | 0.294 | 0.212 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 40 | 146 | 36 | 0.247 | 5 | 25 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.211 | 0.231 | 0.407 | OK |
| Tyler Heineman | C | 20 | 56 | 9 | 0.161 | 0 | 2 | 0.203 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.127 | 0.147 | 0.159 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trent Grisham | CF | 39 | 142 | 23 | 0.162 | 4 | 22 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.162 | 0.289 | 0.307 | OK |
| Ben Rice | 1B | 39 | 147 | 43 | 0.293 | 14 | 29 | 0.397 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.251 | 0.344 | 0.552 | OK |
| Aaron Judge | RF | 48 | 173 | 46 | 0.266 | 16 | 30 | 0.398 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.241 | 0.365 | 0.455 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 46 | 168 | 45 | 0.268 | 6 | 30 | 0.376 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.344 | 0.419 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 44 | 166 | 40 | 0.241 | 5 | 18 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.290 | 0.364 | 0.449 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 32 | 108 | 17 | 0.157 | 2 | 9 | 0.209 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.133 | 0.180 | 0.209 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | SS | 5 | 13 | 4 | 0.308 | 0 | 3 | 0.550 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.487 | 0.448 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | DH | 7 | 18 | 3 | 0.167 | 0 | 2 | 0.286 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.208 | 0.311 | 0.269 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 34 | 107 | 19 | 0.178 | 3 | 5 | 0.294 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.147 | 0.255 | 0.212 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dylan Cease | Starter | 9 | 51.4 | 2.45 | 1.206 | 13.1 | 75 | 6.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 105 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 22 | 21.1 | 0.43 | 1.327 | 14.5 | 34 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 22 | 19.7 | 1.83 | 1.218 | 6.4 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Middle Reliever | 22 | 18.7 | 6.26 | 1.979 | 16.8 | 35 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Will Warren | Starter | 9 | 45.0 | 3.60 | 1.222 | 11.8 | 59 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 103 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.6 | 5.51 | 1.735 | 11.5 | 25 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 23 | 14.4 | 3.12 | 1.875 | 17.5 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 22 | 14.7 | 1.84 | 1.088 | 4.3 | 7 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
NYY wins 4-1