MLB Predictions — May 18, 2026 — Actual vs Predicted

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ATL @ MIA	5 - 4	5 - 4	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml
BAL @ TB	2 - 6	2 - 6	TB	TB	TB wins 6-2	59%	enhanced_ml
BOS @ KC	2 - 3	2 - 3	KC	KC	KC wins 3-2	55%	enhanced_ml
CHW @ SEA	5 - 4	5 - 3	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 5-3	54%	enhanced_ml
CIN @ PHI	5 - 6	4 - 6	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 6-4	58%	enhanced_ml
CLE @ DET	5 - 4	6 - 3	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 6-3	58%	enhanced_ml
HOU @ MIN	4 - 5	6 - 5	MIN	HOU	HOU wins 6-5	51%	enhanced_ml
LAD @ SD	5 - 6	4 - 6	SD	SD	SD wins 6-4	51%	enhanced_ml
MIL @ CHC	4 - 3	4 - 2	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 4-2	57%	enhanced_ml
NYM @ WAS	5 - 6	4 - 5	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml
OAK @ LAA	4 - 2	5 - 2	OAK	OAK	OAK wins 5-2	57%	enhanced_ml
SF @ ARI	4 - 3	4 - 3	SF	SF	SF wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml
TEX @ COL	3 - 4	2 - 3	COL	COL	COL wins 3-2	51%	enhanced_ml
TOR @ NYY	3 - 4	3 - 4	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

ATL 32-15 (5.32 RPG / 3.23 RA)

5 - 4

MIA 21-26 (4.28 RPG / 4.55 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 5-4 TARGET: ATL 5 - 4 MIA (ATL) Confidence: 54.3% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	5	9
MIA	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	8

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed2.1

Run Diff17

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

ATL Season Quality

Record32-15

Win%0.681

Run Diff98

RD/Game2.085

MIA Season Quality

Record21-26

Win%0.447

Run Diff-13

RD/Game-0.277

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.7128; margin adjustment: -1.1394; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	C	47	186	56	0.301	13	38	0.385	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.313	0.393	0.634	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	47	182	50	0.275	8	25	0.328	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.202	0.255	0.323	OK
Matt Olson	1B	47	181	50	0.276	14	38	0.354	4	4	2	1	4	0	1	0.500	0.225	0.305	0.444	OK
Austin Riley	3B	46	175	39	0.223	7	28	0.290	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.233	0.284	0.410	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	38	145	41	0.283	7	20	0.309	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.238	0.271	0.389	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	44	163	40	0.245	3	25	0.305	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.192	0.248	0.349	OK
Dominic Smith	DH	22	78	29	0.372	4	18	0.398	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.310	0.339	0.447	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	5	17	1	0.059	0	0	0.111	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.155	0.205	0.215	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	RF	31	107	24	0.224	2	10	0.291	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.236	0.297	0.403	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	36	9	5	5	2	14	0.250

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Xavier Edwards	2B	46	172	54	0.314	4	16	0.401	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.282	0.367	0.437	OK
Liam Hicks	DH	37	136	40	0.294	9	40	0.355	5	5	2	1	3	0	0	0.400	0.230	0.292	0.368	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	45	181	62	0.343	4	21	0.373	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.315	0.341	0.445	OK
Kyle Stowers	LF	24	90	19	0.211	1	4	0.311	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.178	0.265	0.266	OK
Owen Caissie	RF	33	101	21	0.208	2	17	0.270	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.187	0.254	0.335	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	44	167	35	0.210	3	13	0.328	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.233	0.332	0.390	OK
Connor Norby	1B	40	135	31	0.230	4	14	0.327	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.197	0.268	0.336	OK
Joe Mack	C	10	34	6	0.176	0	2	0.200	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.153	0.184	0.242	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	24	85	22	0.259	0	11	0.308	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.174	0.228	0.264	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	8	4	4	3	5	0.235

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
JR Ritchie	Starter	4	21.2	3.40	1.462	7.2	17	5.1	5	2	2	1	2	92	5.1	2	2
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	13	13.2	0.00	0.758	11.6	17	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	19	18.4	0.49	0.924	9.3	19	1.1	2	2	2	2	2	22	1.1	2	2
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	22	19.7	0.91	0.508	11.9	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Meyer	Starter	9	46.5	3.29	1.183	10.5	54	5.2	7	3	3	2	10	100	5.2	10	3
Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	14	25.6	1.41	1.367	8.8	25	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	19	1.1	2	0
Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	11	9.3	9.68	1.613	14.5	15	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	19	1.0	1	2
Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	18	15.8	3.42	1.582	9.7	17	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
John King	Middle Reliever	22	15.7	2.87	0.892	9.2	16	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	11	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-4

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

BAL 21-26 (4.36 RPG / 5.3 RA)

2 - 6

TB 30-15 (4.6 RPG / 4.04 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 6-2 TARGET: BAL 2 - 6 TB (TB) Confidence: 59.0% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4
TB	2	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	x	6	12

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff-8

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

TB Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff13

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

BAL Season Quality

Record21-26

Win%0.447

Run Diff-44

RD/Game-0.936

TB Season Quality

Record30-15

Win%0.667

Run Diff25

RD/Game0.556

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.8215; margin adjustment: 0.765; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Taylor Ward	LF	46	164	43	0.262	1	13	0.419	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.245	0.394	0.344	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	46	196	42	0.214	10	24	0.269	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.227	0.276	0.411	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	28	110	28	0.255	6	22	0.303	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.207	0.251	0.410	OK
Pete Alonso	DH	47	177	38	0.215	8	24	0.300	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.203	0.274	0.350	OK
Tyler O'Neill	RF	20	62	11	0.177	2	7	0.329	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.167	0.294	0.283	OK
Coby Mayo	1B	36	118	22	0.186	5	17	0.262	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.202	0.270	0.364	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	38	140	35	0.250	6	25	0.267	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.217	0.235	0.329	OK
Weston Wilson	3B	10	24	6	0.250	0	0	0.400	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.185	0.313	0.234	OK
Blaze Alexander	CF	27	87	20	0.230	0	4	0.287	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.239	0.288	0.284	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	4	2	2	2	8	0.129

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	43	166	49	0.295	7	27	0.376	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.272	0.336	0.462	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	42	155	42	0.271	8	34	0.372	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.259	0.367	0.410	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	44	171	44	0.257	12	23	0.344	5	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.258	0.341	0.470	OK
Ryan Vilade	RF	15	45	14	0.311	2	9	0.367	4	2	1	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.277	0.337	0.459	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	23	86	23	0.267	1	8	0.308	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.240	0.282	0.361	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	41	166	47	0.283	0	8	0.316	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.251	0.293	0.313	OK
Nick Fortes	C	27	94	27	0.287	1	7	0.302	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.262	0.267	0.346	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	33	102	22	0.216	0	14	0.316	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.216	0.311	0.325	OK
Carson Williams	2B	6	23	3	0.130	0	3	0.167	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.163	0.203	0.254	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	33	12	6	6	1	6	0.364

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trevor Rogers	Starter	7	33.4	5.93	1.587	8.1	30	4.0	10	5	5	0	5	87	4.0	5	5
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	21	18.6	0.48	0.484	11.6	24	1.2	1	1	1	1	0	27	1.2	0	1
Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	19	19.7	2.74	1.015	11.4	25	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Dietrich Enns	Middle Reliever	10	10.8	1.67	1.481	9.2	11	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	23	1.1	0	0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane McClanahan	Starter	8	38.5	2.34	1.013	9.6	41	5.0	3	1	1	1	5	80	5.0	5	1
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	21	18.4	2.93	1.141	11.2	23	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever	17	20.6	2.62	1.311	7.0	16	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	11	7.4	6.08	2.297	15.8	13	1.2	1	1	1	0	2	24	1.2	2	1

Game Summary

TB wins 6-2

Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals

BOS 19-27 (3.63 RPG / 4.07 RA)

2 - 3

KC 20-27 (4.02 RPG / 4.47 RA)

WINNER: KC wins 3-2 TARGET: BOS 2 - 3 KC (KC) Confidence: 54.9% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	4
KC	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	x	3	5

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs2.2

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-9

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

KC Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

BOS Season Quality

Record19-27

Win%0.413

Run Diff-20

RD/Game-0.435

KC Season Quality

Record20-27

Win%0.426

Run Diff-21

RD/Game-0.447

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0067; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jarren Duran	CF	39	162	30	0.185	4	18	0.246	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.176	0.227	0.280	OK
Mickey Gasper	DH	6	24	8	0.333	0	2	0.360	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.243	0.251	0.364	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	45	170	51	0.300	6	19	0.372	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.281	0.347	0.411	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	43	154	39	0.253	9	25	0.359	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.215	0.298	0.413	OK
Masataka Yoshida	LF	20	67	16	0.239	0	5	0.342	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.193	0.276	0.255	OK
Andruw Monasterio	SS	16	62	14	0.226	1	7	0.284	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.207	0.261	0.358	OK
Marcelo Mayer	2B	35	116	24	0.207	2	9	0.279	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.177	0.240	0.291	OK
Connor Wong	C	16	48	12	0.250	0	7	0.333	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.197	0.256	0.318	OK
Nick Sogard	3B	1	4	1	0.250	0	1	0.250	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.201	0.210	0.528	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	4	2	2	2	9	0.129

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Maikel Garcia	3B	44	178	47	0.264	3	18	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.232	0.300	0.349	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	47	185	56	0.303	7	23	0.376	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.296	0.377	0.518	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	44	167	34	0.204	5	22	0.286	4	1	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.196	0.278	0.307	OK
Salvador Perez	C	45	176	36	0.205	7	20	0.243	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.204	0.239	0.353	OK
Carter Jensen	DH	38	130	30	0.231	6	19	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.207	0.303	0.318	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	36	127	31	0.244	4	7	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.220	0.284	0.394	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	37	124	28	0.226	3	15	0.347	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.177	0.289	0.262	OK
Michael Massey	2B	27	84	19	0.226	3	12	0.239	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.667	0.191	0.211	0.370	OK
Kyle Isbel	CF	36	115	32	0.278	3	10	0.336	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.234	0.278	0.364	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	29	5	3	3	4	7	0.172

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sonny Gray	Starter	7	33.3	3.24	1.171	5.7	21	5.0	3	1	1	2	5	90	5.0	5	1
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	16	15.2	0.59	0.921	12.4	21	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	17	17.1	3.16	1.111	11.6	22	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	7	5.3	0.00	1.132	11.9	7	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Seth Lugo	Starter	9	51.5	3.84	1.456	8.0	46	5.1	2	1	1	2	4	95	5.1	4	1
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	20	18.4	3.42	1.522	8.3	17	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	5	1.0	1	1
Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	18	13.8	3.26	1.522	7.8	12	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	19	17.9	2.01	0.894	13.1	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	19	14.3	4.41	1.818	4.4	7	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	16	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

KC wins 3-2

Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners

CHW 24-22 (4.59 RPG / 4.74 RA)

5 - 3

SEA 22-26 (4.12 RPG / 4.0 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 5-3 TARGET: CHW 5 - 4 SEA (CHW) Confidence: 53.9% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	5	4
SEA	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	7

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.8

Avg Allowed5.5

Run Diff3

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak2W

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

CHW Season Quality

Record24-22

Win%0.522

Run Diff-7

RD/Game-0.152

SEA Season Quality

Record22-26

Win%0.458

Run Diff6

RD/Game0.125

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1821; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	2B	25	87	23	0.264	1	9	0.369	5	4	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.274	0.324	0.395	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	44	159	37	0.233	17	32	0.372	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.235	0.375	0.533	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	43	159	39	0.245	11	29	0.371	4	2	1	1	1	2	0	0.500	0.264	0.367	0.549	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	43	161	38	0.236	13	31	0.332	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.256	0.322	0.562	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	33	120	31	0.258	3	16	0.305	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.267	0.327	0.447	OK
Jarred Kelenic	RF	12	36	9	0.250	1	4	0.308	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.216	0.275	0.343	OK
Tristan Peters	LF	32	96	24	0.250	1	10	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.210	0.278	0.332	OK
Drew Romo	C	12	38	7	0.184	4	7	0.326	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.183	0.297	0.406	OK
Luisangel Acuña	CF	25	77	12	0.156	0	3	0.224	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.140	0.207	0.180	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	31	4	5	5	6	9	0.129

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	SS	39	138	30	0.217	6	16	0.365	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.242	0.359	0.435	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	48	191	48	0.251	7	20	0.319	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.214	0.281	0.355	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	48	173	52	0.301	4	18	0.386	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.302	0.374	0.430	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	45	177	44	0.249	5	21	0.316	4	3	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.248	0.320	0.346	OK
Rob Refsnyder	DH	11	33	4	0.121	1	2	0.189	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.166	0.231	0.250	OK
Connor Joe	RF	6	18	3	0.167	1	1	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.198	0.275	0.373	OK
Cole Young	2B	48	169	42	0.249	3	26	0.323	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.200	0.263	0.300	OK
Colt Emerson	3B	1	2	0	0.000	0	0	0.333	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.163	0.404	0.243
Jhonny Pereda	C	4	12	2	0.167	0	0	0.167	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.189	0.200	0.255	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	3	3	4	5	0.206

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Noah Schultz	Starter	6	28.4	5.07	1.408	8.2	26	6.0	4	1	1	3	4	100	6.0	4	1
Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	2	1.1	16.36	3.636	0.0	0	0.0	0	1	1	0	0	16	0.0	0	1
Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	6	6.1	1.48	1.311	11.8	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1	2.1	8.57	1.905	4.3	1	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	5	1.0	1	1
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	12	9.8	1.84	1.939	13.8	15	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	8	1.0	0	0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryan Woo	Starter	9	53.0	3.91	1.000	8.0	47	5.2	2	2	2	5	6	97	5.2	6	2
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	18	16.3	5.52	1.411	16.0	29	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	22	16.6	2.71	1.506	9.2	17	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	17	18.4	2.93	1.087	8.3	17	1.0	2	3	3	1	2	18	1.0	2	3
Alex Hoppe	Middle Reliever	7	8.4	6.43	1.548	11.8	11	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	23	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

CHW wins 5-3

Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies

CIN 24-23 (4.34 RPG / 5.09 RA)

4 - 6

PHI 24-23 (4.23 RPG / 4.6 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 6-4 TARGET: CIN 5 - 6 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 57.6% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	9
PHI	2	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	x	6	12

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed6.1

Run Diff-10

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak2L

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff14

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak4W

CIN Season Quality

Record24-23

Win%0.511

Run Diff-35

RD/Game-0.745

PHI Season Quality

Record24-23

Win%0.511

Run Diff-17

RD/Game-0.362

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.383; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Matt McLain	2B	43	162	36	0.222	5	19	0.326	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.257	0.349	0.472	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	47	189	57	0.302	11	31	0.364	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.317	0.371	0.531	OK
Spencer Steer	RF	44	159	42	0.264	7	17	0.333	5	5	3	1	2	0	1	0.600	0.287	0.345	0.433	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	19	66	20	0.303	6	19	0.418	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.273	0.383	0.581	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	47	177	43	0.243	10	31	0.337	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.197	0.308	0.343	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	DH	25	86	23	0.267	6	16	0.351	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.223	0.307	0.410	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	33	111	18	0.162	3	12	0.258	4	3	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.150	0.241	0.263	OK
TJ Friedl	CF	37	140	26	0.186	2	7	0.269	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.143	0.208	0.217	OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	35	113	17	0.150	2	5	0.207	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.169	0.223	0.259	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	9	4	4	4	10	0.250

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	45	191	45	0.236	4	15	0.283	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.234	0.279	0.318	OK
Bryce Harper	DH	46	170	48	0.282	12	30	0.376	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.287	0.379	0.559	OK
Alec Bohm	1B	42	157	33	0.210	3	20	0.266	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.268	0.312	0.382	OK
Edmundo Sosa	3B	19	65	14	0.215	1	8	0.227	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.203	0.219	0.292	OK
Adolis García	RF	44	163	35	0.215	3	12	0.290	4	2	2	1	2	1	0	1.000	0.169	0.231	0.266	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	36	134	29	0.216	4	19	0.264	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.219	0.263	0.409	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	28	98	22	0.224	1	8	0.287	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.189	0.235	0.259	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	38	128	35	0.273	2	11	0.350	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.230	0.306	0.395	OK
Otto Kemp	LF	5	17	1	0.059	0	0	0.059	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.154	0.165	0.220	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	12	6	6	1	10	0.343

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Lodolo	Starter	2	9.1	8.90	1.648	7.9	8	4.1	10	6	6	0	7	89	4.1	7	6
Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	21	20.5	1.76	1.268	11.0	25	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	19	17.3	3.64	1.329	9.4	18	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	21	14.6	4.93	1.712	10.5	17	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Painter	Starter	8	36.5	6.41	1.644	8.4	34	4.2	6	3	3	4	8	101	4.2	8	3
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	12	11.2	1.61	1.161	15.3	19	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	19	17.5	4.11	1.314	11.8	23	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	22	1.0	0	1
José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	21	12.5	6.48	2.320	16.6	23	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	18	14.7	2.45	1.293	7.3	12	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	14	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 6-4

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

CLE 26-22 (4.38 RPG / 4.1 RA)

6 - 3

DET 20-27 (4.0 RPG / 4.28 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 6-3 TARGET: CLE 5 - 4 DET (CLE) Confidence: 57.6% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	0	6	7
DET	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	9

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.6

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff20

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

DET Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs2.3

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-23

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

CLE Season Quality

Record26-22

Win%0.542

Run Diff13

RD/Game0.271

DET Season Quality

Record20-27

Win%0.426

Run Diff-13

RD/Game-0.277

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7216; margin adjustment: -0.3031; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Angel Martínez	LF	35	135	38	0.281	9	23	0.331	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	0.250	0.291	0.323	0.622	OK
José Ramírez	3B	48	175	40	0.229	7	19	0.358	5	3	1	1	0	2	1	0.333	0.269	0.392	0.440	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	40	154	43	0.279	7	28	0.362	5	4	3	1	6	1	1	0.750	0.254	0.343	0.445	OK
Rhys Hoskins	1B	29	91	19	0.209	4	14	0.362	5	4	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.201	0.364	0.430	OK
David Fry	DH	18	52	14	0.269	3	8	0.377	4	3	0	1	0	1	3	0.000	0.229	0.333	0.405	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	17	59	16	0.271	1	7	0.411	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.266	0.377	0.343	OK
Steven Kwan	CF	43	164	33	0.201	1	10	0.320	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.172	0.309	0.225	OK
Austin Hedges	C	18	56	15	0.268	1	4	0.344	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.215	0.306	0.337	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	46	151	43	0.285	4	26	0.366	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.281	0.352	0.407	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	34	7	6	6	6	12	0.206

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Colt Keith	DH	32	111	31	0.279	0	4	0.322	5	5	1	1	2	0	2	0.200	0.255	0.295	0.339	OK
Kevin McGonigle	3B	44	168	49	0.292	2	16	0.396	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.245	0.347	0.357	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	37	141	36	0.255	8	27	0.331	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	0.200	0.252	0.315	0.455	OK
Riley Greene	LF	46	168	54	0.321	4	23	0.412	5	4	2	1	0	1	2	0.500	0.306	0.389	0.437	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	44	151	30	0.199	6	17	0.315	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.158	0.268	0.272	OK
Zach McKinstry	2B	22	73	13	0.178	1	5	0.250	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.171	0.241	0.236	OK
Matt Vierling	CF	29	104	22	0.212	2	15	0.284	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.182	0.261	0.345	OK
Wenceel Pérez	RF	24	86	13	0.151	0	5	0.198	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.153	0.199	0.197	OK
Zack Short	SS	4	8	0	0.000	0	0	0.333	4	2	1	0	0	2	0	0.500	0.125	0.331	0.190
TEAM TOTALS									41	36	9	3	3	5	11	0.250

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Slade Cecconi	Starter	9	43.6	5.78	1.628	7.8	38	5.0	8	3	3	2	6	107	5.0	6	3
Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	21	21.2	2.97	1.132	13.2	31	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	26	1.1	2	0
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	23	15.7	2.29	1.083	20.6	36	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	14	0.2	1	0
Matt Festa	Middle Reliever	20	15.9	6.23	1.509	11.3	20	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	12	8.7	6.21	1.724	8.3	8	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Framber Valdez	Starter	9	49.3	4.38	1.379	7.7	42	5.1	4	4	4	1	10	101	5.1	10	4
Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	14	11.4	2.37	0.965	14.2	18	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	20	19.8	0.91	1.414	6.4	14	1.1	1	2	2	3	1	32	1.1	1	2
Burch Smith	Middle Reliever	11	14.4	3.12	1.458	11.9	19	1.1	1	0	0	2	0	34	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

CLE wins 6-3

Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins

HOU 19-29 (4.42 RPG / 5.48 RA)

6 - 5

MIN 21-26 (4.66 RPG / 4.79 RA)

WINNER: HOU wins 6-5 TARGET: HOU 4 - 5 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	2	6	11
MIN	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	1	5	12

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs2.7

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-14

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

HOU Season Quality

Record19-29

Win%0.396

Run Diff-51

RD/Game-1.062

MIN Season Quality

Record21-26

Win%0.447

Run Diff-6

RD/Game-0.128

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0113; margin adjustment: 0.4247; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	10	43	11	0.256	0	0	0.304	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.243	0.291	0.367	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	41	150	38	0.253	4	18	0.345	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.214	0.280	0.349	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	48	174	55	0.316	15	31	0.423	5	4	3	1	3	1	0	0.750	0.307	0.408	0.629	OK
Christian Walker	1B	47	170	45	0.265	11	30	0.340	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.196	0.268	0.445	OK
Zach Dezenzo	LF	7	23	6	0.261	1	2	0.320	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.233	0.294	0.376	OK
Braden Shewmake	2B	12	45	14	0.311	2	6	0.311	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.254	0.261	0.396	OK
Brice Matthews	CF	31	106	22	0.208	4	12	0.248	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.195	0.233	0.313	OK
Cam Smith	RF	43	149	28	0.188	3	15	0.287	5	5	1	1	2	0	2	0.200	0.120	0.222	0.194	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	22	73	19	0.260	3	12	0.325	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.183	0.250	0.312	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	41	11	6	6	2	5	0.268

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Austin Martin	RF	31	108	34	0.315	1	10	0.436	6	5	1	0	0	1	1	0.200	0.298	0.401	0.392	OK
Trevor Larnach	LF	29	98	27	0.276	2	12	0.393	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.261	0.367	0.426	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	33	118	35	0.297	7	26	0.404	5	4	2	1	2	1	0	0.500	0.282	0.395	0.561	OK
Kody Clemens	1B	30	105	27	0.257	4	12	0.355	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.290	0.351	0.507	OK
Josh Bell	DH	42	160	33	0.206	3	23	0.273	5	4	2	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.184	0.241	0.275	OK
Luke Keaschall	2B	44	162	38	0.235	1	15	0.319	5	4	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.230	0.310	0.317	OK
Brooks Lee	SS	42	157	38	0.242	5	22	0.296	5	5	3	1	1	0	0	0.600	0.197	0.250	0.299	OK
Tristan Gray	3B	19	66	14	0.212	3	14	0.254	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.185	0.224	0.292	OK
James Outman	CF	11	37	8	0.216	0	3	0.237	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.214	0.241	0.379	OK
TEAM TOTALS									46	41	12	5	5	4	4	0.293

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tatsuya Imai	Starter	4	11.5	10.17	2.261	12.5	16	3.0	11	3	3	1	3	75	3.0	3	3
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	17	17.2	3.66	1.570	8.4	16	2.0	0	0	0	2	0	18	2.0	0	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	16	13.6	8.60	2.353	13.9	21	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	17	15.8	5.13	1.392	9.1	16	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	25	1.2	1	0
AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever	18	24.8	5.44	1.653	8.0	22	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	25	1.1	0	0
Jayden Murray	Reliever	6	10.0	5.40	1.700	4.5	5	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	28	1.0	0	1

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kendry Rojas	Starter	3	7.1	2.54	2.254	10.1	8	3.0	6	3	3	2	2	67	3.0	2	3
Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	23	14.9	8.46	2.282	9.1	15	2.1	1	0	0	0	1	32	2.1	1	0
Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	18	18.2	4.45	1.703	8.4	17	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	20	1.1	0	1
Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	18	14.5	3.10	1.793	8.1	13	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	2.0	1	0
Luis García	Middle Reliever	8	8.2	6.59	1.463	2.2	2	1.1	3	2	2	0	1	26	1.1	1	2

Game Summary

HOU wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10)

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

LAD 29-18 (5.28 RPG / 3.28 RA)

4 - 6

SD 28-18 (4.24 RPG / 4.09 RA)

WINNER: SD wins 6-4 TARGET: LAD 5 - 6 SD (SD) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	4	8
SD	0	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	x	6	7

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff17

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak5W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff0

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak3W

LAD Season Quality

Record29-18

Win%0.617

Run Diff94

RD/Game2.000

SD Season Quality

Record28-18

Win%0.609

Run Diff7

RD/Game0.152

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.8603; margin adjustment: -0.7813; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	42	163	42	0.258	7	24	0.385	5	3	0	0	0	2	2	0.000	0.275	0.388	0.469	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	12	50	9	0.180	4	9	0.241	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.202	0.249	0.415	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	44	171	44	0.257	4	20	0.335	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.218	0.310	0.352	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	44	165	43	0.261	4	22	0.358	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.277	0.373	0.423	OK
Will Smith	C	33	126	33	0.262	4	19	0.329	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.231	0.307	0.361	OK
Max Muncy	3B	43	149	40	0.268	12	19	0.370	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.219	0.326	0.444	OK
Andy Pages	CF	46	172	52	0.302	10	41	0.354	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.229	0.289	0.420	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	42	153	41	0.268	5	23	0.343	4	2	0	1	1	1	2	0.000	0.281	0.346	0.428	OK
Hyeseong Kim	2B	30	92	25	0.272	1	10	0.340	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.225	0.300	0.301	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	8	4	4	4	9	0.235

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	2B	44	168	39	0.232	0	14	0.309	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.204	0.280	0.254	OK
Miguel Andujar	DH	33	125	37	0.296	3	14	0.318	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.257	0.275	0.433	OK
Gavin Sheets	1B	35	118	30	0.254	7	17	0.338	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.309	0.396	0.681	OK
Manny Machado	3B	44	159	29	0.182	6	20	0.277	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.151	0.243	0.265	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	44	162	41	0.253	6	21	0.328	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.199	0.275	0.279	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	43	170	35	0.206	4	19	0.274	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.144	0.210	0.238	OK
Nick Castellanos	RF	23	81	17	0.210	2	16	0.244	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.197	0.234	0.352	OK
Ramón Laureano	LF	39	147	33	0.224	5	19	0.305	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.182	0.268	0.308	OK
Rodolfo Durán	C	4	12	1	0.083	1	2	0.083	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.161	0.173	0.285	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	28	7	6	6	4	6	0.250

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	8	49.3	3.65	1.014	8.8	48	6.1	4	3	3	4	6	108	6.1	6	3
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	20	17.4	1.55	0.632	9.3	18	1.2	3	3	3	0	0	13	1.2	0	3
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	20	14.7	3.06	1.088	14.1	23	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael King	Starter	9	50.4	2.68	1.111	8.9	50	5.2	6	3	3	4	6	105	5.2	6	3
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	20	20.3	0.89	0.788	19.5	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	16	13.5	1.33	0.963	4.7	7	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15	1.0	2	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	20	19.5	6.00	1.436	12.9	28	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	14	1.0	0	1
Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	13	11.8	3.81	1.271	12.2	16	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

SD wins 6-4

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

MIL 26-18 (4.95 RPG / 3.57 RA)

4 - 2

CHC 29-18 (5.13 RPG / 4.23 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 4-2 TARGET: MIL 4 - 3 CHC (MIL) Confidence: 57.1% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	4	7
CHC	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	8

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed2.4

Run Diff19

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

MIL Season Quality

Record26-18

Win%0.591

Run Diff61

RD/Game1.386

CHC Season Quality

Record29-18

Win%0.617

Run Diff42

RD/Game0.894

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4536; margin adjustment: -0.1905; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jackson Chourio	CF	11	49	15	0.306	1	4	0.346	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.277	0.319	0.454	OK
Brice Turang	2B	41	153	44	0.288	6	27	0.409	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.254	0.376	0.417	OK
William Contreras	C	41	165	47	0.285	3	27	0.360	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.258	0.334	0.342	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	15	58	16	0.276	1	7	0.333	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.225	0.287	0.373	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	9	31	9	0.290	1	6	0.405	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.256	0.340	0.383	OK
Jake Bauers	LF	34	128	37	0.289	6	22	0.368	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.289	0.369	0.487	OK
Luis Rengifo	3B	31	116	25	0.216	0	14	0.281	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.228	0.286	0.305	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	37	137	30	0.219	3	11	0.291	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.217	0.277	0.288	OK
Joey Ortiz	SS	29	92	19	0.207	1	11	0.286	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.203	0.290	0.308	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	4	4	1	8	0.206

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nico Hoerner	2B	45	186	48	0.258	4	29	0.338	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.223	0.299	0.320	OK
Michael Busch	1B	45	167	38	0.228	4	25	0.351	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.219	0.346	0.373	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	45	183	46	0.251	4	15	0.340	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.277	0.356	0.378	OK
Ian Happ	LF	45	167	38	0.228	10	20	0.368	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.201	0.341	0.384	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	31	119	31	0.261	7	17	0.364	5	5	2	0	0	0	2	0.400	0.196	0.294	0.340	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	14	43	15	0.349	2	8	0.481	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.263	0.400	0.510	OK
Carson Kelly	C	29	107	31	0.290	1	13	0.372	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.250	0.329	0.338	OK
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	46	169	40	0.237	5	20	0.317	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.189	0.262	0.328	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	44	150	28	0.187	6	23	0.298	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.153	0.262	0.258	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	35	8	2	2	6	12	0.229

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Sproat	Starter	8	33.9	6.11	1.622	9.6	36	4.2	6	2	2	5	5	97	4.2	5	2
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	19	15.7	5.16	1.338	10.3	18	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	21	26.2	2.40	1.450	15.1	44	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	25	1.1	2	0
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	16	16.0	3.38	1.125	11.2	20	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20	1.0	2	0
DL Hall	Middle Reliever	19	18.3	1.97	1.421	11.8	24	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	21	1.0	1	0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shota Imanaga	Starter	9	54.1	2.33	0.906	9.8	59	6.1	5	2	2	0	6	106	6.1	6	2
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	10	8.3	2.17	1.325	9.8	9	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	14	10.0	11.70	2.200	14.4	16	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2
Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	20	17.1	3.68	1.637	12.1	23	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	18	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-2

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals

NYM 20-26 (3.83 RPG / 4.17 RA)

4 - 5

WAS 23-24 (5.43 RPG / 5.7 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 5-4 TARGET: NYM 5 - 6 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	11
WAS	2	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	x	5	9

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed5.8

Run Diff-1

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

NYM Season Quality

Record20-26

Win%0.435

Run Diff-16

RD/Game-0.348

WAS Season Quality

Record23-24

Win%0.489

Run Diff-13

RD/Game-0.277

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1531; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carson Benge	RF	38	138	34	0.246	3	14	0.307	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	0.200	0.287	0.332	0.381	OK
Bo Bichette	SS	46	186	39	0.210	2	18	0.262	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.168	0.231	0.222	OK
Juan Soto	DH	30	113	31	0.274	6	14	0.371	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0.400	0.264	0.361	0.484	OK
Mark Vientos	1B	35	128	30	0.234	6	22	0.277	4	3	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.228	0.264	0.403	OK
Brett Baty	3B	36	127	31	0.244	2	16	0.307	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.240	0.304	0.382	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	46	166	38	0.229	3	15	0.287	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.212	0.273	0.328	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	6	17	5	0.294	1	3	0.500	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.225	0.418	0.442	OK
Tyrone Taylor	LF	19	56	12	0.214	1	6	0.241	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.181	0.212	0.277	OK
Luis Torrens	C	16	50	8	0.160	0	4	0.208	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.164	0.201	0.254	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	38	11	4	4	0	11	0.289

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	RF	47	178	43	0.242	12	29	0.389	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.240	0.371	0.459	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	34	124	34	0.274	3	21	0.305	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.294	0.330	0.525	OK
Brady House	3B	37	152	31	0.204	6	21	0.256	5	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.182	0.236	0.342	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	45	167	50	0.299	9	38	0.390	5	5	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.285	0.356	0.463	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	46	184	50	0.272	7	25	0.330	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.321	0.496	OK
Jacob Young	CF	41	154	34	0.221	5	20	0.273	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.211	0.261	0.384	OK
Jose Fernandez	DH	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.236	0.269	0.326
Jorbit Vivas	2B	26	75	19	0.253	0	3	0.345	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.199	0.276	0.276	OK
Drew Millas	C	22	68	12	0.176	1	5	0.243	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.182	0.246	0.304	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	33	9	5	5	5	8	0.273

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Christian Scott	Starter	4	14.5	3.72	1.517	12.4	20	4.1	3	3	3	5	5	86	4.1	5	3
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	17	14.5	3.72	1.310	14.9	24	1.1	4	2	2	0	1	29	1.1	1	2
Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	18	17.7	4.07	1.243	9.7	19	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	18	0.2	1	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	19	15.1	1.19	1.192	12.5	21	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	24	1.2	1	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jake Irvin	Starter	9	42.2	5.97	1.469	9.6	45	4.1	8	4	4	0	5	88	4.1	5	4
Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	18	13.4	5.37	1.866	12.1	18	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	22	16.7	3.77	1.796	8.1	15	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	19	0.2	2	0
Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	14	26.2	3.44	1.260	7.9	23	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	5	1.1	2	0
Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	12	10.0	2.70	2.200	11.7	13	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

WAS wins 5-4

Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

OAK 23-23 (4.35 RPG / 4.63 RA)

5 - 2

LAA 16-31 (3.96 RPG / 5.23 RA)

WINNER: OAK wins 5-2 TARGET: OAK 4 - 2 LAA (OAK) Confidence: 57.3% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	8
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	7

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs2.4

Avg Allowed6.4

Run Diff-40

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak6L

OAK Season Quality

Record23-23

Win%0.500

Run Diff-13

RD/Game-0.283

LAA Season Quality

Record16-31

Win%0.340

Run Diff-60

RD/Game-1.277

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.2333; margin adjustment: -0.518; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carlos Cortes	RF	28	95	32	0.337	4	16	0.385	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.312	0.362	0.480	OK
Shea Langeliers	C	41	169	57	0.337	12	27	0.396	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.336	0.394	0.596	OK
Nick Kurtz	1B	45	160	43	0.269	8	29	0.432	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.292	0.444	0.610	OK
Brent Rooker	DH	29	111	22	0.198	6	21	0.283	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.223	0.307	0.405	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	LF	43	164	32	0.195	5	20	0.281	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.164	0.245	0.327	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	4	13	5	0.385	0	2	0.400	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.265	0.317	0.335	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	37	129	37	0.287	1	14	0.352	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.226	0.292	0.320	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	23	82	20	0.244	5	13	0.295	4	3	2	1	3	1	0	0.667	0.216	0.269	0.433	OK
Darell Hernaiz	SS	21	65	17	0.262	1	5	0.342	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.263	0.336	0.329	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	5	5	2	5	0.229

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	47	184	41	0.223	7	20	0.333	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.225	0.328	0.395	OK
Mike Trout	CF	46	164	39	0.238	11	23	0.399	4	3	3	1	1	1	0	1.000	0.201	0.346	0.360	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	42	167	43	0.257	3	20	0.308	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.250	0.298	0.346	OK
Jorge Soler	DH	43	156	34	0.218	8	28	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.189	0.271	0.343	OK
Yoán Moncada	3B	31	101	18	0.178	3	9	0.297	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.186	0.279	0.263	OK
Jo Adell	RF	47	180	47	0.261	6	27	0.308	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.195	0.237	0.323	OK
Josh Lowe	LF	32	105	18	0.171	4	10	0.221	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.173	0.218	0.252	OK
Logan O'Hoppe	C	26	85	17	0.200	1	8	0.310	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.166	0.254	0.212	OK
Adam Frazier	2B	17	52	13	0.250	1	5	0.316	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.172	0.235	0.322	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	2	2	3	5	0.206

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
J.T. Ginn	Starter	10	41.7	3.24	1.247	7.3	34	5.2	4	1	1	1	4	99	5.2	4	1
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	24	16.4	3.29	2.195	13.2	24	1.0	2	1	1	2	1	27	1.0	1	1
Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	17	13.4	3.36	1.343	5.4	8	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	20	18.3	1.97	0.874	9.8	20	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Walbert Urena	Starter	7	26.4	3.41	1.477	8.9	26	5.0	4	2	2	1	3	79	5.0	3	2
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	15	19.8	4.55	1.162	13.2	29	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	4	1.1	0	0
Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	15	17.3	3.64	1.214	11.4	22	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	4	3.2	5.62	1.250	16.9	6	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	19	1.0	0	1
José Fermin	Middle Reliever	9	7.6	4.74	1.053	10.7	9	0.1	2	2	2	0	1	16	0.1	1	2

Game Summary

OAK wins 5-2

San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks

SF 20-27 (3.51 RPG / 4.3 RA)

4 - 3

ARI 22-23 (4.4 RPG / 4.78 RA)

WINNER: SF wins 4-3 TARGET: SF 4 - 3 ARI (SF) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	10
ARI	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	5

SF Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

SF Season Quality

Record20-27

Win%0.426

Run Diff-37

RD/Game-0.787

ARI Season Quality

Record22-23

Win%0.489

Run Diff-17

RD/Game-0.378

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5045; margin adjustment: 0.2119; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	45	174	46	0.264	3	15	0.310	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.251	0.286	0.390	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	44	174	57	0.328	2	16	0.370	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.350	0.403	0.531	OK
Casey Schmitt	LF	38	144	43	0.299	8	21	0.346	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.290	0.320	0.541	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	47	179	44	0.246	5	19	0.294	5	3	1	1	2	2	0	0.333	0.255	0.305	0.397	OK
Willy Adames	SS	46	188	44	0.234	3	13	0.265	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.248	0.276	0.355	OK
Matt Chapman	3B	45	174	39	0.224	1	16	0.301	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.190	0.258	0.291	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	7	23	2	0.087	1	1	0.160	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.145	0.209	0.262	OK
Harrison Bader	CF	19	70	11	0.157	4	9	0.189	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.172	0.208	0.374	OK
Eric Haase	C	7	22	6	0.273	2	4	0.304	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.213	0.251	0.469	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	37	10	4	4	2	4	0.270

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ketel Marte	2B	40	166	36	0.217	5	15	0.270	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.226	0.279	0.354	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	43	151	42	0.278	7	24	0.390	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.303	0.417	0.614	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	42	146	33	0.226	2	12	0.343	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.214	0.335	0.331	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	42	142	39	0.275	6	21	0.352	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.257	0.348	0.414	OK
Ildemaro Vargas	1B	36	149	48	0.322	7	28	0.340	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.275	0.295	0.441	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	21	78	19	0.244	1	10	0.299	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.235	0.288	0.347	OK
Jose Fernandez	DH	30	112	33	0.295	3	14	0.331	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.235	0.268	0.325	OK
Tim Tawa	LF	11	33	4	0.121	0	2	0.231	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.145	0.251	0.239	OK
Ryan Waldschmidt	CF	8	28	6	0.214	0	5	0.267	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.198	0.255	0.304	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	5	3	3	1	5	0.156

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Robbie Ray	Starter	9	48.7	3.14	1.211	9.1	49	5.2	5	3	3	1	5	97	5.2	5	3
Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	19	17.2	2.09	1.279	11.0	21	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.1	0	0
Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	20	18.4	2.45	0.870	7.8	16	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.0	0	0
Joel Peguero	Middle Reliever	6	5.4	1.67	0.741	1.7	1	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zac Gallen	Starter	9	41.6	5.19	1.562	6.3	29	4.1	7	3	3	1	3	86	4.1	3	3
Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1	0.1	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	13	1.2	0	0
Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	2	1.2	15.00	3.333	7.5	1	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	2	2.1	0.00	0.476	8.6	2	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1	1.0	9.00	2.000	0.0	0	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	21	1.0	0	1

Game Summary

SF wins 4-3

Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies

TEX 22-24 (3.72 RPG / 3.65 RA)

2 - 3

COL 18-29 (4.23 RPG / 5.17 RA)

WINNER: COL wins 3-2 TARGET: TEX 3 - 4 COL (COL) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	7
COL	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	x	3	5

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff2

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed5.7

Run Diff-15

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

TEX Season Quality

Record22-24

Win%0.478

Run Diff3

RD/Game0.065

COL Season Quality

Record18-29

Win%0.383

Run Diff-44

RD/Game-0.936

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1443; margin adjustment: -0.4806; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Andrew McCutchen	DH	11	31	8	0.258	1	3	0.324	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.253	0.316	0.398	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	44	172	46	0.267	4	13	0.345	4	4	2	0	0	0	2	0.500	0.235	0.302	0.358	OK
Josh Jung	3B	42	162	49	0.302	5	20	0.352	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.252	0.297	0.398	OK
Jake Burger	1B	43	166	38	0.229	7	28	0.271	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.279	0.325	0.487	OK
Danny Jansen	C	27	86	17	0.198	2	9	0.310	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.178	0.268	0.305	OK
Ezequiel Duran	SS	32	109	29	0.266	3	13	0.336	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.219	0.291	0.403	OK
Justin Foscue	2B	5	17	3	0.176	1	1	0.176	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.195	0.206	0.318	OK
Sam Haggerty	LF	7	15	3	0.200	0	0	0.250	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.177	0.231	0.241	OK
Michael Helman	CF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.232	0.301	0.378
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	7	2	2	1	7	0.212

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Willi Castro	2B	34	123	30	0.244	2	15	0.304	4	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.227	0.283	0.330	OK
Brenton Doyle	CF	28	94	15	0.160	1	3	0.240	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.163	0.239	0.235	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	43	161	44	0.273	5	22	0.352	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.282	0.357	0.465	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	40	160	40	0.250	11	18	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.245	0.295	0.452	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	41	150	31	0.207	1	11	0.255	3	2	1	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.201	0.242	0.284	OK
Jake McCarthy	LF	30	89	26	0.292	2	16	0.344	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.263	0.307	0.451	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	40	124	29	0.234	1	11	0.340	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.224	0.325	0.308	OK
Sterlin Thompson	RF	1	3	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.182	0.194	0.265
Braxton Fulford	DH	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.241	0.313	0.418
TEAM TOTALS									31	28	5	3	3	2	5	0.179

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
MacKenzie Gore	Starter	9	46.6	4.64	1.288	10.2	53	5.1	5	3	3	2	4	93	5.1	4	3
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	17	20.5	0.88	0.439	7.5	17	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.2	1	0
Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	16	18.3	1.97	0.820	4.4	9	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jose Quintana	Starter	7	32.6	4.14	1.472	4.4	16	5.0	5	1	1	1	6	82	5.0	6	1
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	17	16.6	7.05	2.108	8.7	16	1.1	0	1	1	0	0	20	1.1	0	1
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	13	25.3	1.42	0.909	8.9	25	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	7	1.1	1	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	18	19.2	4.69	1.719	12.2	26	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	24	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

COL wins 3-2

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

TOR 21-25 (4.09 RPG / 4.33 RA)

3 - 4

NYY 28-19 (5.04 RPG / 3.6 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 4-3 TARGET: TOR 3 - 4 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	8
NYY	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	6

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2W

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

TOR Season Quality

Record21-25

Win%0.457

Run Diff-11

RD/Game-0.239

NYY Season Quality

Record28-19

Win%0.596

Run Diff68

RD/Game1.447

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.8948; margin adjustment: 0.7958; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
George Springer	DH	26	100	18	0.180	2	7	0.268	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.171	0.248	0.262	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	45	167	48	0.287	3	20	0.375	5	5	3	1	1	0	0	0.600	0.225	0.315	0.342	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	44	163	38	0.233	10	27	0.319	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.201	0.292	0.352	OK
Lenyn Sosa	2B	17	59	11	0.186	1	4	0.183	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.179	0.185	0.295	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	40	149	38	0.255	5	15	0.331	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.243	0.316	0.423	OK
Ernie Clement	SS	44	176	50	0.284	2	12	0.306	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.225	0.253	0.327	OK
Myles Straw	RF	17	49	14	0.286	1	3	0.368	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.237	0.325	0.346	OK
Brandon Valenzuela	C	21	65	16	0.246	4	10	0.329	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.233	0.318	0.392	OK
Davis Schneider	LF	18	48	6	0.125	0	5	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.141	0.303	0.212	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	3	3	4	5	0.229

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	16	58	16	0.276	4	9	0.373	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.296	0.369	0.584	OK
Ben Rice	DH	38	142	42	0.296	14	29	0.402	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.262	0.358	0.580	OK
Aaron Judge	RF	47	169	45	0.266	16	30	0.401	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.252	0.380	0.473	OK
Cody Bellinger	CF	45	164	43	0.262	5	28	0.374	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.211	0.335	0.366	OK
Amed Rosario	3B	21	69	19	0.275	4	14	0.329	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.245	0.307	0.413	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	43	162	38	0.235	4	16	0.317	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.251	0.330	0.362	OK
Anthony Volpe	SS	4	9	2	0.222	0	3	0.562	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.196	0.509	0.349	OK
Max Schuemann	LF	3	10	3	0.300	0	1	0.364	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.221	0.289	0.453	OK
J.C. Escarra	C	13	44	8	0.182	0	6	0.234	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.180	0.235	0.316	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	6	4	4	1	7	0.200

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Patrick Corbin	Starter	7	32.7	4.13	1.468	6.1	22	5.0	4	2	2	0	6	77	5.0	6	2
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	22	21.1	0.43	1.327	14.5	34	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.0	0	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	22	19.7	1.83	1.218	6.4	14	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	21	17.7	6.61	2.034	17.3	34	0.0	0	1	1	0	0	18	0.0	0	1
Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	23	20.7	3.91	1.304	10.0	23	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	15	1.0	0	1

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Weathers	Starter	8	43.6	3.10	1.147	11.1	54	5.2	6	3	3	4	5	105	5.2	5	3
David Bednar	Middle Reliever	20	18.6	5.32	1.667	11.1	23	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	15	1.0	0	0
Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	22	13.4	3.36	1.940	16.8	25	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	22	14.7	1.84	1.088	4.3	7	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.2	0	0
Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	23	18.9	2.86	1.587	12.4	26	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.2	0	0
Camilo Doval	Middle Reliever	20	14.3	6.29	1.259	10.7	17	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	14	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

ATL Recent Form

MIA Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

MIA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays

BAL Recent Form

TB Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

TB Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals

BOS Recent Form

KC Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

KC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners

CHW Recent Form

SEA Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

SEA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies

CIN Recent Form

PHI Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

PHI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

CLE Recent Form

DET Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

DET Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins

HOU Recent Form

MIN Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

MIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres