| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ COL | 6 - 4 | 7 - 4 | ARI | ARI | ARI wins 7-4 | 52% | enhanced_ml |
| BAL @ WAS | 5 - 6 | 5 - 6 | WAS | WAS | WAS wins 6-5 | 52% | enhanced_ml |
| BOS @ ATL | 1 - 4 | 1 - 4 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 4-1 | 56% | enhanced_ml |
| CHC @ CHW | 4 - 6 | 3 - 4 | CHW | CHW | CHW wins 4-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| CIN @ CLE | 4 - 5 | 2 - 7 | CLE | CLE | CLE wins 7-2 | 52% | enhanced_ml |
| KC @ STL | 3 - 4 | 2 - 4 | STL | STL | STL wins 4-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| LAD @ LAA | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 4-3 | 52% | enhanced_ml |
| MIA @ TB | 2 - 4 | 2 - 5 | TB | TB | TB wins 5-2 | 54% | enhanced_ml |
| MIL @ MIN | 4 - 3 | 4 - 1 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 4-1 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| NYY @ NYM | 4 - 2 | 5 - 2 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 5-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| PHI @ PIT | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 5-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| SD @ SEA | 4 - 3 | 6 - 3 | SD | SD | SD wins 6-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| SF @ OAK | 3 - 5 | 2 - 6 | OAK | OAK | OAK wins 6-2 | 54% | enhanced_ml |
| TEX @ HOU | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 | TEX | TEX | TEX wins 4-2 | 54% | enhanced_ml |
| TOR @ DET | 3 - 4 | 2 - 4 | DET | DET | DET wins 4-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 |
| COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
Quality edge: -0.3577; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 38 | 157 | 34 | 0.217 | 5 | 15 | 0.268 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.235 | 0.286 | 0.392 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 40 | 139 | 37 | 0.266 | 5 | 20 | 0.377 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.361 | 0.452 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 39 | 133 | 29 | 0.218 | 2 | 12 | 0.338 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.341 | 0.376 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 39 | 134 | 37 | 0.276 | 6 | 20 | 0.331 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.247 | 0.311 | 0.401 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 33 | 135 | 43 | 0.319 | 7 | 25 | 0.338 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.264 | 0.395 | OK |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | LF | 18 | 67 | 13 | 0.194 | 0 | 6 | 0.270 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.284 | 0.321 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 19 | 69 | 14 | 0.203 | 1 | 7 | 0.260 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.211 | 0.266 | 0.340 | OK |
| Jose Fernandez | DH | 27 | 100 | 29 | 0.290 | 3 | 12 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.263 | 0.331 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 5 | 17 | 4 | 0.235 | 0 | 3 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.214 | 0.260 | 0.397 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 35 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Edouard Julien | 1B | 30 | 104 | 27 | 0.260 | 2 | 12 | 0.347 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.227 | 0.316 | 0.351 | OK |
| Mickey Moniak | LF | 32 | 123 | 39 | 0.317 | 12 | 25 | 0.366 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.250 | 0.300 | 0.498 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 37 | 148 | 36 | 0.243 | 10 | 17 | 0.309 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.284 | 0.405 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | DH | 40 | 151 | 42 | 0.278 | 5 | 21 | 0.349 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.247 | 0.314 | 0.409 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | RF | 34 | 124 | 40 | 0.323 | 2 | 18 | 0.378 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.303 | 0.404 | OK |
| Jake McCarthy | CF | 27 | 79 | 22 | 0.278 | 2 | 14 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.299 | 0.474 | OK |
| Willi Castro | 2B | 31 | 113 | 27 | 0.239 | 2 | 13 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.218 | 0.278 | 0.340 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 39 | 144 | 29 | 0.201 | 1 | 11 | 0.252 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.253 | 0.317 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 37 | 113 | 25 | 0.221 | 1 | 10 | 0.338 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.215 | 0.327 | 0.337 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 37 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Merrill Kelly | Starter | 5 | 25.3 | 7.83 | 1.976 | 7.1 | 20 | 4.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 96 | 4.2 | 3 | 4 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 7.5 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.476 | 8.6 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Taylor Clarke | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 360.00 | 30.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Freeland | Starter | 6 | 29.3 | 6.14 | 1.502 | 8.6 | 28 | 4.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 94 | 4.2 | 2 | 3 |
| Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.6 | 7.50 | 2.244 | 8.7 | 15 | 1.0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 12 | 24.3 | 1.48 | 0.864 | 8.9 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 17 | 18.0 | 5.00 | 1.722 | 13.0 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever | 18 | 10.8 | 5.00 | 2.222 | 13.3 | 16 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
ARI wins 7-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.4205; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 43 | 183 | 36 | 0.197 | 9 | 21 | 0.253 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.266 | 0.360 | OK |
| Taylor Ward | LF | 43 | 151 | 40 | 0.265 | 1 | 12 | 0.426 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.228 | 0.405 | 0.375 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 26 | 101 | 28 | 0.277 | 6 | 22 | 0.327 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.232 | 0.279 | 0.420 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 44 | 165 | 36 | 0.218 | 8 | 23 | 0.310 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.219 | 0.296 | 0.375 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | DH | 30 | 113 | 30 | 0.265 | 5 | 14 | 0.325 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.300 | 0.407 | OK |
| Tyler O'Neill | RF | 17 | 51 | 9 | 0.176 | 1 | 6 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.339 | 0.304 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | CF | 22 | 67 | 11 | 0.164 | 0 | 5 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.196 | 0.277 | 0.292 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 33 | 108 | 19 | 0.176 | 4 | 15 | 0.246 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.204 | 0.272 | 0.345 | OK |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 2B | 35 | 129 | 31 | 0.240 | 6 | 24 | 0.261 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.202 | 0.225 | 0.311 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 37 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | RF | 44 | 167 | 39 | 0.234 | 12 | 29 | 0.382 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.235 | 0.366 | 0.452 | OK |
| Luis Garcia | DH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.251 | 0.322 | 0.429 | |
| Curtis Mead | 1B | 17 | 62 | 17 | 0.274 | 3 | 11 | 0.392 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.353 | 0.437 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 42 | 153 | 45 | 0.294 | 9 | 36 | 0.392 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.332 | 0.430 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 43 | 171 | 45 | 0.263 | 6 | 22 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.307 | 0.444 | OK |
| Brady House | 3B | 35 | 144 | 30 | 0.208 | 6 | 20 | 0.265 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.264 | 0.354 | OK |
| Jorbit Vivas | 2B | 24 | 72 | 19 | 0.264 | 0 | 3 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.280 | 0.344 | OK |
| Drew Millas | C | 21 | 65 | 12 | 0.185 | 1 | 5 | 0.254 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.276 | 0.341 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 38 | 145 | 31 | 0.214 | 3 | 16 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.197 | 0.243 | 0.295 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 36 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 0.278 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shane Baz | Starter | 8 | 42.0 | 5.79 | 1.643 | 8.1 | 38 | 4.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 108 | 4.2 | 4 | 3 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.6 | 0.51 | 0.455 | 11.2 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Nunez | Middle Reliever | 18 | 18.6 | 2.90 | 1.075 | 10.6 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dietrich Enns | Middle Reliever | 9 | 9.8 | 1.84 | 1.531 | 10.1 | 11 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 8 | 5.5 | 13.09 | 2.909 | 11.5 | 7 | 0.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zack Littell | Starter | 8 | 35.4 | 7.12 | 1.638 | 4.3 | 17 | 4.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 83 | 4.0 | 8 | 4 |
| Gus Varland | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.2 | 5.45 | 1.818 | 11.6 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| PJ Poulin | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.5 | 3.82 | 1.697 | 8.2 | 15 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 13 | 25.2 | 3.57 | 1.270 | 7.5 | 21 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Richard Lovelady | Middle Reliever | 10 | 8.8 | 1.02 | 2.045 | 11.2 | 11 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
WAS wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | x | 4 | 9 |
Quality edge: 2.7653; margin adjustment: 1.1614; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jarren Duran | LF | 36 | 150 | 27 | 0.180 | 4 | 18 | 0.236 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.239 | 0.310 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | DH | 3 | 11 | 5 | 0.455 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.234 | 0.461 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 42 | 158 | 49 | 0.310 | 6 | 19 | 0.385 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.241 | 0.323 | 0.379 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 40 | 143 | 36 | 0.252 | 8 | 23 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.299 | 0.329 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 37 | 134 | 35 | 0.261 | 3 | 15 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.249 | 0.342 | OK |
| Marcelo Mayer | 2B | 32 | 105 | 23 | 0.219 | 1 | 8 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.252 | 0.292 | OK |
| Andruw Monasterio | SS | 13 | 50 | 12 | 0.240 | 1 | 7 | 0.309 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.206 | 0.272 | 0.373 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 26 | 83 | 18 | 0.217 | 2 | 3 | 0.278 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.187 | 0.238 | 0.306 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 39 | 133 | 23 | 0.173 | 1 | 13 | 0.257 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.226 | 0.285 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 42 | 156 | 40 | 0.256 | 3 | 25 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.296 | 0.416 | OK |
| Drake Baldwin | DH | 44 | 177 | 52 | 0.294 | 11 | 33 | 0.375 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.251 | 0.328 | 0.430 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 44 | 170 | 49 | 0.288 | 8 | 25 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.295 | 0.372 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 44 | 170 | 50 | 0.294 | 14 | 37 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.257 | 0.336 | 0.477 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 43 | 163 | 36 | 0.221 | 6 | 25 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.290 | 0.375 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 35 | 134 | 40 | 0.299 | 6 | 19 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.250 | 0.276 | 0.371 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0.111 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.299 | 0.316 | OK |
| Sandy León | C | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.195 | 0.208 | 0.277 | OK |
| José Azócar | RF | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0.250 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.200 | 0.268 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Connelly Early | Starter | 8 | 41.5 | 3.25 | 1.253 | 8.5 | 39 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 102 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 14 | 13.2 | 0.68 | 0.909 | 13.0 | 19 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever | 17 | 17.1 | 3.16 | 1.111 | 11.6 | 22 | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Spencer Strider | Starter | 2 | 9.1 | 2.97 | 1.319 | 13.8 | 14 | 4.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 89 | 4.2 | 5 | 0 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 12 | 12.2 | 0.00 | 0.656 | 11.1 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.3 | 0.52 | 0.983 | 9.4 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.5 | 0.92 | 0.462 | 11.5 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Kinley | Middle Reliever | 20 | 16.6 | 3.80 | 1.446 | 10.3 | 19 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
ATL wins 4-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 4 |
Quality edge: -1.3504; margin adjustment: -0.5672; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 42 | 171 | 45 | 0.263 | 4 | 29 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.313 | 0.382 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 42 | 155 | 35 | 0.226 | 3 | 22 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.235 | 0.355 | 0.373 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 42 | 169 | 40 | 0.237 | 4 | 13 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.322 | 0.371 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 42 | 154 | 36 | 0.234 | 10 | 19 | 0.376 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.223 | 0.365 | 0.395 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 28 | 105 | 28 | 0.267 | 7 | 16 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.326 | 0.359 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | DH | 30 | 95 | 22 | 0.232 | 6 | 18 | 0.292 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.204 | 0.268 | 0.330 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 27 | 99 | 27 | 0.273 | 1 | 9 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.308 | 0.334 | OK |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 43 | 158 | 38 | 0.241 | 4 | 17 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.284 | 0.348 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 42 | 142 | 26 | 0.183 | 6 | 23 | 0.296 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.291 | 0.303 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 22 | 76 | 20 | 0.263 | 1 | 9 | 0.374 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.297 | 0.419 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 41 | 147 | 33 | 0.224 | 15 | 29 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.361 | 0.348 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 40 | 147 | 35 | 0.238 | 9 | 23 | 0.370 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.244 | 0.362 | 0.428 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 40 | 149 | 34 | 0.228 | 11 | 29 | 0.327 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.220 | 0.288 | 0.409 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 40 | 151 | 43 | 0.285 | 3 | 10 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.311 | 0.388 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 30 | 113 | 26 | 0.230 | 2 | 14 | 0.270 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.207 | 0.260 | 0.333 | OK |
| Jarred Kelenic | RF | 10 | 29 | 8 | 0.276 | 0 | 3 | 0.344 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.294 | 0.333 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 29 | 87 | 23 | 0.264 | 0 | 6 | 0.319 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.282 | 0.340 | OK |
| Drew Romo | C | 10 | 31 | 5 | 0.161 | 4 | 6 | 0.333 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.319 | 0.346 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0.143 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Edward Cabrera | Starter | 8 | 45.4 | 3.96 | 1.344 | 8.5 | 43 | 6.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 99 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 9 | 7.3 | 2.47 | 1.233 | 11.1 | 9 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Phil Maton | Middle Reliever | 13 | 9.8 | 9.18 | 1.939 | 14.7 | 16 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sean Burke | Starter | 8 | 43.3 | 3.74 | 1.109 | 7.5 | 36 | 6.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 98 | 6.2 | 5 | 0 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
CHW wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | x | 7 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.6957; margin adjustment: 0.2922; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Will Benson | CF | 21 | 57 | 9 | 0.158 | 1 | 2 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.316 | 0.337 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 44 | 177 | 53 | 0.299 | 10 | 29 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.321 | 0.419 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 44 | 168 | 41 | 0.244 | 10 | 30 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.309 | 0.375 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 16 | 53 | 17 | 0.321 | 6 | 18 | 0.455 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.385 | 0.486 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | RF | 41 | 146 | 37 | 0.253 | 7 | 14 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.231 | 0.297 | 0.382 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | DH | 23 | 78 | 20 | 0.256 | 6 | 15 | 0.348 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.313 | 0.394 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 40 | 152 | 33 | 0.217 | 4 | 16 | 0.320 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.221 | 0.313 | 0.375 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 31 | 104 | 18 | 0.173 | 3 | 11 | 0.275 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.188 | 0.282 | 0.306 | OK |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3B | 33 | 107 | 16 | 0.150 | 2 | 5 | 0.202 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.240 | 0.302 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Steven Kwan | CF | 40 | 155 | 32 | 0.206 | 1 | 9 | 0.311 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.225 | 0.327 | 0.331 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 45 | 164 | 34 | 0.207 | 6 | 16 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.215 | 0.343 | 0.342 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 37 | 141 | 41 | 0.291 | 6 | 26 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.339 | 0.420 | OK |
| Rhys Hoskins | 1B | 28 | 88 | 18 | 0.205 | 3 | 13 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.216 | 0.368 | 0.389 | OK |
| David Fry | DH | 17 | 50 | 14 | 0.280 | 3 | 8 | 0.390 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.347 | 0.401 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | LF | 32 | 123 | 34 | 0.276 | 7 | 18 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.235 | 0.266 | 0.411 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 14 | 45 | 10 | 0.222 | 1 | 6 | 0.407 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.232 | 0.384 | 0.342 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.237 | 0.259 | |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 43 | 142 | 39 | 0.275 | 3 | 22 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.239 | 0.305 | 0.346 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0.303 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Abbott | Starter | 9 | 44.7 | 4.63 | 1.566 | 6.6 | 33 | 4.2 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 102 | 4.2 | 4 | 5 |
| Graham Ashcraft | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.5 | 1.76 | 1.268 | 11.0 | 25 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.3 | 3.87 | 1.350 | 9.4 | 17 | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tanner Bibee | Starter | 9 | 44.4 | 4.26 | 1.374 | 9.1 | 45 | 5.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 88 | 5.1 | 3 | 2 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 20 | 20.2 | 3.12 | 1.139 | 12.9 | 29 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever | 22 | 15.6 | 2.31 | 1.090 | 20.2 | 35 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Festa | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.8 | 6.27 | 1.519 | 11.4 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
CLE wins 7-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | x | 4 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.7254; margin adjustment: 0.3047; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 41 | 163 | 45 | 0.276 | 3 | 18 | 0.344 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.323 | 0.397 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 44 | 173 | 53 | 0.306 | 7 | 22 | 0.381 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.338 | 0.459 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 41 | 156 | 32 | 0.205 | 5 | 21 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.292 | 0.345 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | C | 42 | 165 | 33 | 0.200 | 6 | 18 | 0.239 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.205 | 0.235 | 0.323 | OK |
| Carter Jensen | DH | 35 | 119 | 27 | 0.227 | 6 | 18 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.202 | 0.305 | 0.314 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 34 | 121 | 28 | 0.231 | 3 | 6 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.211 | 0.270 | 0.364 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 34 | 115 | 26 | 0.226 | 3 | 13 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.300 | 0.330 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 24 | 72 | 17 | 0.236 | 3 | 12 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.239 | 0.421 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 33 | 103 | 28 | 0.272 | 3 | 10 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.211 | 0.252 | 0.342 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 42 | 162 | 40 | 0.247 | 8 | 22 | 0.367 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.250 | 0.337 | 0.389 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 43 | 159 | 42 | 0.264 | 4 | 20 | 0.396 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.248 | 0.346 | 0.390 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 40 | 163 | 45 | 0.276 | 6 | 30 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.251 | 0.314 | 0.407 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 41 | 158 | 47 | 0.297 | 12 | 32 | 0.374 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.323 | 0.440 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 37 | 135 | 30 | 0.222 | 4 | 22 | 0.299 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.306 | 0.333 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 37 | 143 | 37 | 0.259 | 1 | 16 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.292 | 0.364 | OK |
| Nathan Church | LF | 33 | 123 | 30 | 0.244 | 4 | 15 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.263 | 0.353 | OK |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 27 | 91 | 19 | 0.209 | 3 | 8 | 0.255 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.199 | 0.233 | 0.309 | OK |
| Victor Scott II | CF | 35 | 102 | 19 | 0.186 | 2 | 6 | 0.250 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.260 | 0.307 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0.258 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Wacha | Starter | 8 | 51.1 | 2.64 | 0.998 | 7.4 | 42 | 6.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 111 | 6.1 | 7 | 2 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.4 | 3.84 | 1.524 | 8.2 | 15 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Strahm | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.2 | 4.14 | 1.250 | 9.5 | 16 | 0.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dustin May | Starter | 8 | 42.2 | 4.91 | 1.445 | 6.8 | 32 | 5.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 92 | 5.1 | 8 | 1 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.6 | 2.76 | 0.969 | 11.5 | 25 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.8 | 4.29 | 1.548 | 9.6 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.2 | 4.14 | 1.447 | 8.9 | 15 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
STL wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| LAA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
Quality edge: -2.519; margin adjustment: -1.058; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 39 | 150 | 36 | 0.240 | 7 | 17 | 0.370 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.335 | 0.371 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 10 | 41 | 7 | 0.171 | 3 | 8 | 0.227 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.227 | 0.266 | 0.379 | OK |
| Will Smith | C | 31 | 120 | 31 | 0.258 | 4 | 18 | 0.321 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.245 | 0.319 | 0.372 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 42 | 157 | 40 | 0.255 | 4 | 19 | 0.353 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.359 | 0.425 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 43 | 159 | 49 | 0.308 | 9 | 35 | 0.360 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.297 | 0.397 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 40 | 138 | 37 | 0.268 | 11 | 17 | 0.365 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.327 | 0.413 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 39 | 141 | 37 | 0.262 | 4 | 18 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.330 | 0.396 | OK |
| Dalton Rushing | 1B | 18 | 63 | 19 | 0.302 | 7 | 16 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.230 | 0.279 | 0.378 | OK |
| Hyeseong Kim | 2B | 27 | 81 | 22 | 0.272 | 1 | 9 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.286 | 0.334 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Vaughn Grissom | 2B | 18 | 66 | 18 | 0.273 | 2 | 10 | 0.355 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.219 | 0.308 | 0.382 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 43 | 153 | 38 | 0.248 | 11 | 23 | 0.410 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.360 | 0.355 | OK |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | 39 | 156 | 41 | 0.263 | 3 | 20 | 0.312 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.233 | 0.280 | 0.365 | OK |
| Jorge Soler | DH | 40 | 145 | 32 | 0.221 | 8 | 28 | 0.318 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.201 | 0.282 | 0.344 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 44 | 171 | 46 | 0.269 | 6 | 25 | 0.310 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.223 | 0.248 | 0.372 | OK |
| Zach Neto | SS | 44 | 174 | 39 | 0.224 | 7 | 20 | 0.330 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.305 | 0.368 | OK |
| Josh Lowe | LF | 30 | 101 | 16 | 0.158 | 4 | 10 | 0.211 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 0.228 | 0.275 | OK |
| Logan O'Hoppe | C | 23 | 76 | 16 | 0.211 | 1 | 8 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.290 | 0.278 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | 3B | 28 | 99 | 27 | 0.273 | 5 | 11 | 0.339 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.204 | 0.255 | 0.335 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Will Klein | Starter | 12 | 14.7 | 3.06 | 1.565 | 10.4 | 17 | 4.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 98 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.4 | 1.55 | 0.632 | 9.3 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 18 | 12.7 | 3.54 | 1.181 | 12.8 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Hurt | Middle Reliever | 11 | 11.0 | 0.82 | 0.636 | 13.1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Dreyer | Middle Reliever | 19 | 18.8 | 2.39 | 1.064 | 10.5 | 22 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Kochanowicz | Starter | 8 | 43.7 | 4.12 | 1.396 | 6.2 | 30 | 6.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 115 | 6.1 | 6 | 2 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 15 | 19.8 | 4.55 | 1.162 | 13.2 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 15 | 17.3 | 3.64 | 1.214 | 11.4 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 15.0 | 2 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| José Fermin | Middle Reliever | 7 | 6.5 | 5.54 | 0.923 | 11.1 | 8 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
LAD wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: 1.0693; margin adjustment: 0.4491; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 43 | 159 | 49 | 0.308 | 4 | 15 | 0.399 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.238 | 0.332 | 0.421 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | DH | 34 | 123 | 38 | 0.309 | 9 | 38 | 0.369 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.296 | 0.367 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 42 | 169 | 57 | 0.337 | 4 | 19 | 0.369 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.249 | 0.280 | 0.401 | OK |
| Christopher Morel | 1B | 10 | 34 | 6 | 0.176 | 0 | 1 | 0.243 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.242 | 0.306 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | LF | 21 | 78 | 17 | 0.218 | 1 | 3 | 0.322 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.297 | 0.339 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 3B | 37 | 122 | 28 | 0.230 | 3 | 12 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.297 | 0.338 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 41 | 156 | 27 | 0.173 | 2 | 12 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.300 | 0.324 | OK |
| Esteury Ruiz | RF | 6 | 20 | 4 | 0.200 | 2 | 3 | 0.200 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.213 | 0.363 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 8 | 26 | 5 | 0.192 | 0 | 2 | 0.222 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.195 | 0.230 | 0.336 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 38 | 154 | 45 | 0.292 | 0 | 8 | 0.323 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.252 | 0.289 | 0.341 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 41 | 160 | 41 | 0.256 | 11 | 19 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.236 | 0.321 | 0.374 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 39 | 144 | 41 | 0.285 | 8 | 33 | 0.383 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.266 | 0.368 | 0.411 | OK |
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 40 | 155 | 46 | 0.297 | 5 | 24 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.291 | 0.351 | OK |
| Jake Fraley | RF | 23 | 73 | 18 | 0.247 | 2 | 5 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.228 | 0.300 | 0.400 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 20 | 55 | 12 | 0.218 | 1 | 8 | 0.353 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.331 | 0.316 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 33 | 123 | 17 | 0.138 | 2 | 13 | 0.195 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.235 | 0.294 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 16 | 39 | 10 | 0.256 | 0 | 3 | 0.370 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.314 | 0.311 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 30 | 92 | 19 | 0.207 | 0 | 8 | 0.311 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.208 | 0.304 | 0.323 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Janson Junk | Starter | 8 | 43.4 | 3.32 | 1.129 | 6.8 | 33 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 101 | 5.2 | 7 | 3 |
| Tyler Phillips | Middle Reliever | 13 | 23.6 | 1.14 | 1.314 | 9.5 | 25 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 10 | 8.3 | 10.84 | 1.566 | 14.1 | 13 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.8 | 3.42 | 1.582 | 9.7 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| John King | Middle Reliever | 21 | 14.7 | 3.06 | 0.952 | 9.8 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ian Seymour | Starter | 17 | 16.3 | 3.87 | 1.350 | 12.7 | 23 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 85 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 19 | 16.4 | 2.74 | 1.098 | 11.0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cole Sulser | Middle Reliever | 17 | 20.6 | 2.62 | 1.311 | 7.0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | Middle Reliever | 9 | 6.3 | 4.29 | 1.905 | 14.3 | 10 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
TB wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Quality edge: -1.7733; margin adjustment: -0.7448; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 8 | 35 | 10 | 0.286 | 0 | 3 | 0.342 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.233 | 0.294 | 0.383 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 38 | 141 | 42 | 0.298 | 6 | 27 | 0.422 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.383 | 0.451 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 38 | 152 | 43 | 0.283 | 3 | 26 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.243 | 0.335 | 0.369 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 32 | 120 | 33 | 0.275 | 6 | 20 | 0.356 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.256 | 0.342 | 0.435 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 31 | 109 | 25 | 0.229 | 1 | 22 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.327 | 0.377 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | DH | 7 | 24 | 7 | 0.292 | 1 | 6 | 0.414 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.329 | 0.433 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 34 | 124 | 27 | 0.218 | 3 | 10 | 0.297 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.292 | 0.315 | OK |
| Luis Rengifo | 3B | 29 | 108 | 25 | 0.231 | 0 | 14 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.305 | 0.360 | OK |
| David Hamilton | SS | 31 | 97 | 23 | 0.237 | 0 | 7 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.299 | 0.294 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 31 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0.161 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Austin Martin | RF | 28 | 98 | 33 | 0.337 | 1 | 10 | 0.455 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.274 | 0.384 | 0.409 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | SS | 39 | 145 | 37 | 0.255 | 5 | 22 | 0.312 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.282 | 0.352 | OK |
| Ryan Jeffers | C | 30 | 108 | 32 | 0.296 | 6 | 25 | 0.403 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.362 | 0.463 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 40 | 152 | 32 | 0.211 | 3 | 23 | 0.280 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.267 | 0.329 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | 2B | 42 | 155 | 35 | 0.226 | 1 | 15 | 0.311 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.297 | 0.318 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 1B | 27 | 94 | 22 | 0.234 | 4 | 10 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.302 | 0.408 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 3B | 28 | 93 | 15 | 0.161 | 3 | 12 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.191 | 0.282 | 0.301 | OK |
| Ryan Kreidler | CF | 6 | 17 | 5 | 0.294 | 2 | 4 | 0.455 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.228 | 0.389 | 0.413 | OK |
| James Outman | LF | 8 | 28 | 6 | 0.214 | 0 | 3 | 0.241 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.245 | 0.383 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Coleman Crow | Starter | 1 | 5.1 | 3.53 | 0.980 | 7.1 | 4 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 83 | 5.0 | 8 | 1 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.7 | 5.51 | 1.293 | 10.4 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 20 | 24.2 | 2.23 | 1.405 | 16.0 | 43 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 15 | 15.0 | 3.60 | 1.200 | 11.4 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DL Hall | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.2 | 2.09 | 1.453 | 11.5 | 22 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Joe Ryan | Starter | 9 | 44.2 | 3.46 | 1.041 | 9.2 | 45 | 5.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 97 | 5.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Justin Topa | Middle Reliever | 22 | 14.7 | 8.57 | 2.245 | 9.2 | 15 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Eric Orze | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.2 | 5.00 | 1.728 | 8.9 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Taylor Rogers | Middle Reliever | 16 | 13.3 | 3.38 | 1.729 | 8.8 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
MIL wins 4-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
Quality edge: -2.2561; margin adjustment: -0.9476; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trent Grisham | CF | 36 | 128 | 22 | 0.172 | 4 | 21 | 0.312 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.352 | 0.375 | OK |
| Ben Rice | 1B | 35 | 128 | 38 | 0.297 | 12 | 27 | 0.409 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.350 | 0.447 | OK |
| Aaron Judge | RF | 44 | 157 | 42 | 0.268 | 16 | 30 | 0.404 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.380 | 0.442 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 42 | 152 | 41 | 0.270 | 5 | 27 | 0.377 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.353 | 0.405 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 40 | 150 | 31 | 0.207 | 4 | 14 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.281 | 0.337 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 30 | 100 | 17 | 0.170 | 2 | 9 | 0.224 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.195 | 0.242 | 0.293 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | DH | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0.083 | 0 | 1 | 0.267 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.201 | 0.343 | 0.291 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | SS | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.218 | 0.300 | |
| Austin Wells | C | 32 | 99 | 18 | 0.182 | 3 | 5 | 0.305 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.303 | 0.285 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 0.167 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 35 | 125 | 30 | 0.240 | 3 | 13 | 0.301 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.299 | 0.360 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 43 | 174 | 38 | 0.218 | 2 | 18 | 0.270 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.265 | 0.289 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 27 | 103 | 27 | 0.262 | 5 | 13 | 0.353 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.219 | 0.309 | 0.373 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | 1B | 32 | 115 | 27 | 0.235 | 6 | 19 | 0.282 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.258 | 0.368 | OK |
| MJ Melendez | DH | 17 | 46 | 13 | 0.283 | 2 | 6 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.319 | 0.400 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 33 | 116 | 27 | 0.233 | 2 | 14 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.215 | 0.272 | 0.360 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 43 | 154 | 35 | 0.227 | 3 | 14 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.272 | 0.335 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0.333 | 1 | 3 | 0.538 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.422 | 0.498 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 14 | 43 | 8 | 0.186 | 0 | 4 | 0.239 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.234 | 0.326 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cam Schlittler | Starter | 9 | 52.4 | 1.37 | 0.821 | 10.1 | 59 | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 107 | 6.0 | 6 | 1 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.6 | 3.80 | 1.446 | 11.9 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 20 | 11.3 | 3.98 | 2.124 | 19.1 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 20 | 14.5 | 1.24 | 0.966 | 4.3 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Brent Headrick | Middle Reliever | 22 | 17.7 | 2.54 | 1.582 | 11.7 | 23 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Clay Holmes | Starter | 8 | 46.7 | 1.93 | 1.049 | 7.1 | 37 | 6.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 106 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 15 | 12.5 | 4.32 | 1.440 | 15.8 | 22 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.7 | 4.59 | 1.338 | 9.7 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.9 | 1.21 | 1.074 | 12.1 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
NYY wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
Quality edge: 1.5341; margin adjustment: 0.6443; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trea Turner | SS | 42 | 176 | 41 | 0.233 | 4 | 13 | 0.280 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.226 | 0.269 | 0.337 | OK |
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 44 | 164 | 37 | 0.226 | 18 | 30 | 0.355 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.335 | 0.492 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 43 | 158 | 42 | 0.266 | 10 | 24 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.234 | 0.332 | 0.426 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 39 | 143 | 28 | 0.196 | 3 | 20 | 0.258 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.285 | 0.362 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | RF | 37 | 141 | 48 | 0.340 | 4 | 21 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.261 | 0.291 | 0.387 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 33 | 122 | 26 | 0.213 | 3 | 15 | 0.262 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.256 | 0.380 | OK |
| Edmundo Sosa | LF | 18 | 61 | 14 | 0.230 | 1 | 8 | 0.242 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.231 | 0.334 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 35 | 117 | 33 | 0.282 | 2 | 10 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.234 | 0.304 | 0.423 | OK |
| Garrett Stubbs | C | 5 | 15 | 4 | 0.267 | 0 | 1 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.259 | 0.292 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 41 | 176 | 46 | 0.261 | 10 | 30 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.313 | 0.425 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 37 | 144 | 36 | 0.250 | 10 | 28 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.339 | 0.422 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 42 | 150 | 38 | 0.253 | 4 | 26 | 0.396 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.236 | 0.372 | 0.363 | OK |
| Ryan O'Hearn | RF | 40 | 153 | 46 | 0.301 | 7 | 29 | 0.374 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.254 | 0.326 | 0.412 | OK |
| Marcell Ozuna | DH | 35 | 139 | 26 | 0.187 | 4 | 14 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.207 | 0.288 | 0.322 | OK |
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 34 | 112 | 30 | 0.268 | 2 | 17 | 0.391 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.376 | 0.412 | OK |
| Konnor Griffin | SS | 36 | 136 | 35 | 0.257 | 3 | 18 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.232 | 0.288 | 0.393 | OK |
| Endy Rodríguez | C | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.667 | 0 | 2 | 0.750 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.398 | 0.665 | MODERATE |
| Jared Triolo | 3B | 11 | 39 | 9 | 0.231 | 0 | 2 | 0.302 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.271 | 0.331 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0.194 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Aaron Nola | Starter | 8 | 40.6 | 5.32 | 1.527 | 9.8 | 44 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 92 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 12 | 11.2 | 1.61 | 1.161 | 15.3 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.5 | 4.11 | 1.314 | 11.8 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 20 | 11.5 | 7.04 | 2.435 | 15.7 | 20 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.7 | 2.63 | 1.314 | 7.2 | 11 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Braxton Ashcraft | Starter | 8 | 47.5 | 2.84 | 1.074 | 9.7 | 51 | 6.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 113 | 6.1 | 8 | 1 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.4 | 1.76 | 0.735 | 11.5 | 26 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.4 | 3.62 | 1.322 | 5.2 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.1 | 3.19 | 1.489 | 16.6 | 26 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
PIT wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
Quality edge: 0.2866; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 40 | 158 | 34 | 0.215 | 4 | 18 | 0.287 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.288 | 0.344 | OK |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | 41 | 156 | 38 | 0.244 | 0 | 14 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.300 | 0.317 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 41 | 147 | 28 | 0.190 | 6 | 20 | 0.287 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.199 | 0.286 | 0.325 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | 1B | 32 | 110 | 24 | 0.218 | 4 | 12 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.220 | 0.286 | 0.386 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 41 | 151 | 38 | 0.252 | 6 | 21 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.216 | 0.288 | 0.324 | OK |
| Miguel Andujar | DH | 30 | 112 | 33 | 0.295 | 3 | 12 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.249 | 0.429 | OK |
| Ramón Laureano | LF | 36 | 136 | 30 | 0.221 | 5 | 19 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.287 | 0.334 | OK |
| Sung-Mun Song | 2B | 5 | 12 | 2 | 0.167 | 0 | 2 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.197 | 0.300 | 0.343 | OK |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 23 | 74 | 13 | 0.176 | 0 | 3 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.194 | 0.263 | 0.298 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brendan Donovan | 3B | 22 | 79 | 22 | 0.278 | 3 | 8 | 0.383 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.246 | 0.318 | 0.411 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 45 | 180 | 47 | 0.261 | 7 | 20 | 0.325 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.232 | 0.289 | 0.395 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 42 | 166 | 41 | 0.247 | 5 | 20 | 0.311 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.308 | 0.367 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 45 | 163 | 49 | 0.301 | 4 | 16 | 0.389 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.271 | 0.344 | 0.436 | OK |
| Luke Raley | RF | 32 | 105 | 29 | 0.276 | 9 | 25 | 0.339 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.293 | 0.453 | OK |
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 36 | 129 | 28 | 0.217 | 5 | 15 | 0.365 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.355 | 0.367 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 29 | 82 | 22 | 0.268 | 4 | 17 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.298 | 0.413 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 45 | 157 | 39 | 0.248 | 3 | 24 | 0.328 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.276 | 0.329 | OK |
| Jhonny Pereda | C | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0.400 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.230 | 0.304 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0.212 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Randy Vásquez | Starter | 8 | 43.4 | 3.11 | 1.198 | 8.7 | 42 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 94 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 19 | 19.2 | 0.94 | 0.677 | 18.8 | 40 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 14 | 12.3 | 1.46 | 0.894 | 3.7 | 5 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.5 | 6.69 | 1.543 | 13.4 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | Middle Reliever | 12 | 10.8 | 4.17 | 1.204 | 13.3 | 16 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Emerson Hancock | Starter | 8 | 47.2 | 3.24 | 1.017 | 9.5 | 50 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 99 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.3 | 5.52 | 1.411 | 16.0 | 29 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever | 22 | 16.6 | 2.71 | 1.506 | 9.2 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cooper Criswell | Middle Reliever | 15 | 17.3 | 2.08 | 0.925 | 8.3 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
SD wins 6-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 6 | 11 |
Quality edge: 1.0; margin adjustment: 0.42; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 43 | 164 | 44 | 0.268 | 3 | 15 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.279 | 0.397 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 41 | 162 | 49 | 0.302 | 0 | 14 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.243 | 0.295 | 0.365 | OK |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 42 | 160 | 36 | 0.225 | 1 | 14 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.280 | 0.336 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 44 | 166 | 41 | 0.247 | 5 | 18 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.302 | 0.413 | OK |
| Heliot Ramos | LF | 41 | 159 | 42 | 0.264 | 4 | 19 | 0.302 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.270 | 0.405 | OK |
| Willy Adames | SS | 43 | 174 | 38 | 0.218 | 3 | 11 | 0.253 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.259 | 0.355 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 6 | 20 | 2 | 0.100 | 1 | 1 | 0.143 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.240 | 0.304 | OK |
| Daniel Susac | C | 5 | 19 | 11 | 0.579 | 0 | 5 | 0.600 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.286 | 0.503 | OK |
| Harrison Bader | CF | 16 | 57 | 8 | 0.140 | 2 | 4 | 0.167 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.185 | 0.215 | 0.308 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 42 | 153 | 42 | 0.275 | 7 | 26 | 0.428 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.266 | 0.410 | 0.469 | OK |
| Shea Langeliers | C | 39 | 162 | 55 | 0.340 | 12 | 27 | 0.397 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.273 | 0.338 | 0.471 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 40 | 154 | 30 | 0.195 | 5 | 20 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.276 | 0.370 | OK |
| Brent Rooker | DH | 26 | 99 | 19 | 0.192 | 5 | 18 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.219 | 0.320 | 0.356 | OK |
| Henry Bolte | CF | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0.500 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.335 | 0.326 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 20 | 71 | 19 | 0.268 | 5 | 13 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.286 | 0.421 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | RF | 30 | 107 | 20 | 0.187 | 3 | 12 | 0.298 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.208 | 0.317 | 0.321 | OK |
| Darell Hernaiz | SS | 18 | 56 | 13 | 0.232 | 1 | 5 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.222 | 0.311 | 0.297 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 34 | 121 | 35 | 0.289 | 1 | 12 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.275 | 0.332 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 35 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0.314 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tyler Mahle | Starter | 8 | 40.5 | 5.33 | 1.531 | 9.3 | 42 | 5.0 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 94 | 5.0 | 4 | 5 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.0 | 1.59 | 1.235 | 10.1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.4 | 2.59 | 0.862 | 7.8 | 15 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Joel Peguero | Middle Reliever | 5 | 4.4 | 2.05 | 0.909 | 2.0 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Gage | Middle Reliever | 22 | 13.2 | 2.05 | 1.667 | 8.9 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Aaron Civale | Starter | 8 | 40.5 | 2.67 | 1.432 | 7.3 | 33 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 91 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 23 | 15.4 | 3.51 | 2.273 | 13.4 | 23 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Joel Kuhnel | Middle Reliever | 16 | 12.4 | 3.63 | 1.290 | 4.4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.3 | 1.56 | 0.809 | 9.4 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | Middle Reliever | 20 | 15.1 | 8.94 | 1.987 | 11.9 | 20 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
OAK wins 6-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
Quality edge: -1.2326; margin adjustment: -0.5177; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joc Pederson | DH | 32 | 91 | 18 | 0.198 | 2 | 7 | 0.296 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.323 | 0.370 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | SS | 29 | 96 | 28 | 0.292 | 3 | 14 | 0.367 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.252 | 0.331 | 0.445 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 41 | 160 | 45 | 0.281 | 4 | 12 | 0.359 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.244 | 0.315 | 0.386 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 39 | 150 | 49 | 0.327 | 5 | 20 | 0.374 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.271 | 0.311 | 0.443 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 38 | 122 | 23 | 0.189 | 5 | 13 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.317 | 0.357 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 40 | 157 | 35 | 0.223 | 6 | 24 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.267 | 0.366 | OK |
| Alejandro Osuna | LF | 13 | 33 | 8 | 0.242 | 0 | 5 | 0.419 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.236 | 0.340 | 0.336 | OK |
| Kyle Higashioka | C | 17 | 61 | 11 | 0.180 | 1 | 5 | 0.254 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.199 | 0.266 | 0.287 | OK |
| Justin Foscue | 2B | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0.167 | 1 | 1 | 0.167 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.221 | 0.322 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brice Matthews | 2B | 28 | 95 | 19 | 0.200 | 4 | 12 | 0.245 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.207 | 0.251 | 0.353 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 39 | 143 | 37 | 0.259 | 3 | 17 | 0.350 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.296 | 0.342 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 45 | 165 | 53 | 0.321 | 14 | 30 | 0.429 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.355 | 0.445 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 44 | 162 | 44 | 0.272 | 10 | 29 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.209 | 0.278 | 0.385 | OK |
| Braden Shewmake | SS | 9 | 34 | 12 | 0.353 | 2 | 5 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.246 | 0.365 | OK |
| Zach Dezenzo | LF | 4 | 13 | 3 | 0.231 | 1 | 2 | 0.286 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.213 | 0.269 | 0.444 | OK |
| Zach Cole | CF | 8 | 27 | 6 | 0.222 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.223 | 0.331 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 41 | 144 | 28 | 0.194 | 3 | 15 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.180 | 0.271 | 0.279 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 20 | 68 | 19 | 0.279 | 3 | 12 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.204 | 0.265 | 0.350 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Leiter | Starter | 8 | 40.8 | 5.07 | 1.495 | 10.8 | 49 | 5.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 94 | 5.1 | 4 | 1 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 17 | 20.5 | 0.88 | 0.439 | 7.5 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 16 | 18.3 | 1.97 | 0.820 | 4.4 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Cole Winn | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.9 | 5.44 | 1.678 | 11.5 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Spencer Arrighetti | Starter | 5 | 28.2 | 1.91 | 1.348 | 9.6 | 30 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 98 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 15 | 15.8 | 3.99 | 1.646 | 8.5 | 15 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever | 15 | 12.5 | 9.36 | 2.400 | 15.1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.7 | 4.59 | 1.210 | 9.2 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
TEX wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 4 |
Quality edge: 0.0832; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| George Springer | DH | 24 | 92 | 18 | 0.196 | 2 | 7 | 0.288 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.229 | 0.306 | 0.358 | OK |
| Yohendrick Pinango | LF | 10 | 31 | 11 | 0.355 | 0 | 4 | 0.412 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.243 | 0.308 | 0.353 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 42 | 155 | 45 | 0.290 | 2 | 18 | 0.383 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.321 | 0.331 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 42 | 155 | 37 | 0.239 | 10 | 27 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.317 | 0.360 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 37 | 140 | 34 | 0.243 | 5 | 13 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.297 | 0.365 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | RF | 31 | 111 | 30 | 0.270 | 5 | 16 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.279 | 0.374 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 42 | 170 | 50 | 0.294 | 2 | 12 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.255 | 0.276 | 0.396 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 37 | 136 | 35 | 0.257 | 5 | 23 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.214 | 0.236 | 0.376 | OK |
| Brandon Valenzuela | C | 19 | 59 | 14 | 0.237 | 4 | 10 | 0.318 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.306 | 0.360 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kevin McGonigle | SS | 41 | 156 | 46 | 0.295 | 2 | 16 | 0.402 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.355 | 0.407 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 34 | 131 | 32 | 0.244 | 8 | 27 | 0.312 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.277 | 0.418 | OK |
| Colt Keith | DH | 30 | 105 | 30 | 0.286 | 0 | 4 | 0.330 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.285 | 0.369 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 43 | 156 | 52 | 0.333 | 4 | 22 | 0.429 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.377 | 0.432 | OK |
| Matt Vierling | CF | 26 | 93 | 19 | 0.204 | 1 | 14 | 0.279 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.200 | 0.278 | 0.361 | OK |
| Gage Workman | 3B | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0.375 | 1 | 3 | 0.375 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.231 | 0.562 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | RF | 19 | 62 | 11 | 0.177 | 1 | 5 | 0.250 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.202 | 0.274 | 0.304 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 41 | 140 | 28 | 0.200 | 6 | 16 | 0.319 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.189 | 0.299 | 0.330 | OK |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 2B | 13 | 40 | 7 | 0.175 | 0 | 4 | 0.233 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.248 | 0.351 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 29 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 0.143 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trey Yesavage | Starter | 3 | 13.1 | 0.69 | 1.374 | 10.3 | 15 | 4.1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 81 | 4.1 | 5 | 4 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 21 | 19.1 | 0.47 | 1.361 | 15.1 | 32 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.7 | 2.03 | 1.243 | 6.1 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.5 | 6.17 | 1.886 | 16.5 | 32 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brenan Hanifee | Starter | 6 | 7.4 | 1.22 | 1.216 | 4.9 | 4 | 3.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 67 | 3.0 | 8 | 1 |
| Kenley Jansen | Middle Reliever | 12 | 9.4 | 2.87 | 1.170 | 14.4 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 19 | 18.8 | 0.48 | 1.383 | 6.7 | 14 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Burch Smith | Middle Reliever | 9 | 11.3 | 3.98 | 1.681 | 13.5 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Brant Hurter | Middle Reliever | 17 | 17.7 | 2.03 | 1.017 | 7.6 | 15 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
DET wins 4-2