MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

May 15, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ COL6 - 47 - 4ARIARIARI wins 7-452%enhanced_ml
BAL @ WAS5 - 65 - 6WASWASWAS wins 6-552%enhanced_ml
BOS @ ATL1 - 41 - 4ATLATLATL wins 4-156%enhanced_ml
CHC @ CHW4 - 63 - 4CHWCHWCHW wins 4-353%enhanced_ml
CIN @ CLE4 - 52 - 7CLECLECLE wins 7-252%enhanced_ml
KC @ STL3 - 42 - 4STLSTLSTL wins 4-253%enhanced_ml
LAD @ LAA4 - 34 - 3LADLADLAD wins 4-352%enhanced_ml
MIA @ TB2 - 42 - 5TBTBTB wins 5-254%enhanced_ml
MIL @ MIN4 - 34 - 1MILMILMIL wins 4-151%enhanced_ml
NYY @ NYM4 - 25 - 2NYYNYYNYY wins 5-253%enhanced_ml
PHI @ PIT4 - 54 - 5PITPITPIT wins 5-453%enhanced_ml
SD @ SEA4 - 36 - 3SDSDSD wins 6-353%enhanced_ml
SF @ OAK3 - 52 - 6OAKOAKOAK wins 6-254%enhanced_ml
TEX @ HOU4 - 24 - 2TEXTEXTEX wins 4-254%enhanced_ml
TOR @ DET3 - 42 - 4DETDETDET wins 4-253%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

ARI 20-22 (4.26 RPG / 4.86 RA)
7 - 4
COL 17-27 (4.27 RPG / 5.09 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 7-4 TARGET: ARI 6 - 4 COL (ARI) Confidence: 52.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ARI00120400078
COL200200000410

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff2
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed6.3
Run Diff-19
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

ARI Season Quality

Record20-22
Win%0.476
Run Diff-25
RD/Game-0.595

COL Season Quality

Record17-27
Win%0.386
Run Diff-36
RD/Game-0.818

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3577; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 3815734 0.217 5150.268 55214 01 0.400 0.235 0.286 0.392 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 4013937 0.266 5200.377 53010 20 0.000 0.240 0.361 0.452 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 3913329 0.218 2120.338 54010 10 0.000 0.221 0.341 0.376 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 3913437 0.276 6200.331 55211 00 0.400 0.247 0.311 0.401 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 3313543 0.319 7250.338 53010 11 0.000 0.239 0.264 0.395 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 186713 0.194 060.270 54000 10 0.000 0.212 0.284 0.321 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 196914 0.203 170.260 44210 00 0.500 0.211 0.266 0.340 OK
Jose FernandezDH 2710029 0.290 3120.330 43000 12 0.000 0.220 0.263 0.331 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 5174 0.235 030.278 44212 00 0.500 0.214 0.260 0.397 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42358 77 64 0.229

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Edouard Julien1B 3010427 0.260 2120.347 54210 10 0.500 0.227 0.316 0.351 OK
Mickey MoniakLF 3212339 0.317 12250.366 55213 01 0.400 0.250 0.300 0.498 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 3714836 0.243 10170.309 54100 10 0.250 0.236 0.284 0.405 OK
TJ RumfieldDH 4015142 0.278 5210.349 55211 01 0.400 0.247 0.314 0.409 OK
Troy JohnstonRF 3412440 0.323 2180.378 54000 11 0.000 0.247 0.303 0.404 OK
Jake McCarthyCF 277922 0.278 2140.337 44000 01 0.000 0.245 0.299 0.474 OK
Willi Castro2B 3111327 0.239 2130.306 44210 00 0.500 0.218 0.278 0.340 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 3914429 0.201 1110.252 44000 02 0.000 0.209 0.253 0.317 OK
Kyle Karros3B 3711325 0.221 1100.338 43100 10 0.333 0.215 0.327 0.337 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413710 44 46 0.270

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Merrill KellyStarter 525.37.83 1.9767.120 4.28443396 4.2 3 4
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.01000020 1.0 0 0
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Taylor ClarkeMiddle Reliever 10.1360.00 30.0000.00 0.11001116 0.1 1 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle FreelandStarter 629.36.14 1.5028.628 4.25335294 4.2 2 3
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 1615.67.50 2.2448.715 1.03441026 1.0 0 4
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1224.31.48 0.8648.924 1.10000124 1.1 1 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 1718.05.00 1.72213.026 1.10000123 1.1 1 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 1810.85.00 2.22213.316 0.20000017 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

ARI wins 7-4


Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals

BAL 20-25 (4.33 RPG / 5.18 RA)
5 - 6
WAS 22-23 (5.31 RPG / 5.73 RA)
WINNER: WAS wins 6-5 TARGET: BAL 5 - 6 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 52.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BAL111001001510
WAS002010003610

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed6.1
Run Diff-2
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

BAL Season Quality

Record20-24
Win%0.455
Run Diff-37
RD/Game-0.841

WAS Season Quality

Record21-23
Win%0.477
Run Diff-20
RD/Game-0.455

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4205; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gunnar HendersonSS 4318336 0.197 9210.253 54000 12 0.000 0.220 0.266 0.360 OK
Taylor WardLF 4315140 0.265 1120.426 54212 10 0.500 0.228 0.405 0.375 OK
Adley RutschmanC 2610128 0.277 6220.327 55111 02 0.200 0.232 0.279 0.420 OK
Pete Alonso1B 4416536 0.218 8230.310 55100 03 0.200 0.219 0.296 0.375 OK
Samuel BasalloDH 3011330 0.265 5140.325 55000 00 0.000 0.243 0.300 0.407 OK
Tyler O'NeillRF 17519 0.176 160.344 44000 01 0.000 0.206 0.339 0.304 OK
Colton CowserCF 226711 0.164 050.250 44311 00 0.750 0.196 0.277 0.292 OK
Coby Mayo3B 3310819 0.176 4150.246 43110 11 0.333 0.204 0.272 0.345 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 3512931 0.240 6240.261 43211 11 0.667 0.202 0.225 0.311 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413710 55 410 0.270

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 4416739 0.234 12290.382 54311 10 0.750 0.235 0.366 0.452 OK
Luis GarciaDH 000 0.000 000.000 55211 01 0.400 0.251 0.322 0.429
Curtis Mead1B 176217 0.274 3110.392 54211 12 0.500 0.246 0.353 0.437 OK
CJ AbramsSS 4215345 0.294 9360.392 54113 11 0.250 0.251 0.332 0.430 OK
Daylen LileLF 4317145 0.263 6220.326 44000 01 0.000 0.248 0.307 0.444 OK
Brady House3B 3514430 0.208 6200.265 43000 10 0.000 0.209 0.264 0.354 OK
Jorbit Vivas2B 247219 0.264 030.341 44110 01 0.250 0.227 0.280 0.344 OK
Drew MillasC 216512 0.185 150.254 44000 02 0.000 0.210 0.276 0.341 OK
Jacob YoungCF 3814531 0.214 3160.265 44110 01 0.250 0.197 0.243 0.295 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403610 66 49 0.278

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane BazStarter 842.05.79 1.6438.138 4.263324108 4.2 4 3
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2017.60.51 0.45511.222 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 1818.62.90 1.07510.622 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Dietrich EnnsMiddle Reliever 99.81.84 1.53110.111 1.11000224 1.1 2 0
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 85.513.09 2.90911.57 0.03330017 0.0 0 3

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zack LittellStarter 835.47.12 1.6384.317 4.06441883 4.0 8 4
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 1713.25.45 1.81811.617 1.01002024 1.0 0 0
PJ PoulinMiddle Reliever 2116.53.82 1.6978.215 1.10001121 1.1 1 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1325.23.57 1.2707.521 1.22000133 1.2 1 0
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 108.81.02 2.04511.211 1.01110017 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

WAS wins 6-5


Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves

BOS 18-25 (3.74 RPG / 4.05 RA)
1 - 4
ATL 30-14 (5.39 RPG / 3.32 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 4-1 TARGET: BOS 1 - 4 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BOS00000000113
ATL10100011x49

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff4
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

BOS Season Quality

Record18-25
Win%0.419
Run Diff-13
RD/Game-0.302

ATL Season Quality

Record30-14
Win%0.682
Run Diff91
RD/Game2.068

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.7653; margin adjustment: 1.1614; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 3615027 0.180 4180.236 43000 10 0.000 0.193 0.239 0.310 OK
Mickey GasperDH 3115 0.455 010.500 44000 02 0.000 0.225 0.234 0.461 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 4215849 0.310 6190.385 43111 01 0.333 0.241 0.323 0.379 OK
Willson Contreras1B 4014336 0.252 8230.364 44000 00 0.000 0.203 0.299 0.329 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 3713435 0.261 3150.331 44000 02 0.000 0.208 0.249 0.342 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 3210523 0.219 180.291 44000 01 0.000 0.193 0.252 0.292 OK
Andruw MonasterioSS 135012 0.240 170.309 33100 00 0.333 0.206 0.272 0.373 OK
Carlos NarváezC 268318 0.217 230.278 32100 11 0.500 0.187 0.238 0.306 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 3913323 0.173 1130.257 33000 00 0.000 0.170 0.226 0.285 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33303 11 27 0.100

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Mauricio DubónLF 4215640 0.256 3250.314 44100 00 0.250 0.244 0.296 0.416 OK
Drake BaldwinDH 4417752 0.294 11330.375 43210 10 0.667 0.251 0.328 0.430 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 4417049 0.288 8250.340 44000 01 0.000 0.236 0.295 0.372 OK
Matt Olson1B 4417050 0.294 14370.371 44212 01 0.500 0.257 0.336 0.477 OK
Austin Riley3B 4316336 0.221 6250.293 44000 02 0.000 0.232 0.290 0.375 OK
Michael Harris IICF 3513440 0.299 6190.321 44211 01 0.500 0.250 0.276 0.371 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 391 0.111 000.200 44000 01 0.000 0.224 0.299 0.316 OK
Sandy LeónC 121 0.500 000.500 33211 01 0.667 0.195 0.208 0.277 OK
José AzócarRF 241 0.250 000.250 33000 01 0.000 0.186 0.200 0.268 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34339 44 18 0.273

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Connelly EarlyStarter 841.53.25 1.2538.539 5.262216102 5.2 6 2
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1413.20.68 0.90913.019 2.01110128 2.0 1 1
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 1717.13.16 1.11111.622 0.12110115 0.1 1 1

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer StriderStarter 29.12.97 1.31913.814 4.22001589 4.2 5 0
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1212.20.00 0.65611.115 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 1817.30.52 0.9839.418 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 2119.50.92 0.46211.525 1.0000117 1.0 1 0
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 2016.63.80 1.44610.319 1.1111015 1.1 1 1

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-1


Chicago Cubs @ Chicago White Sox

CHC 28-16 (5.0 RPG / 4.02 RA)
3 - 4
CHW 22-21 (4.4 RPG / 4.58 RA)
WINNER: CHW wins 4-3 TARGET: CHC 4 - 6 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 53.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CHC00000000335
CHW00000400x44

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak5W

CHC Season Quality

Record28-16
Win%0.636
Run Diff43
RD/Game0.977

CHW Season Quality

Record22-21
Win%0.512
Run Diff-8
RD/Game-0.186

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.3504; margin adjustment: -0.5672; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 4217145 0.263 4290.342 44000 01 0.000 0.240 0.313 0.382 OK
Michael Busch1B 4215535 0.226 3220.344 44110 00 0.250 0.235 0.355 0.373 OK
Alex Bregman3B 4216940 0.237 4130.326 44110 00 0.250 0.241 0.322 0.371 OK
Ian HappLF 4215436 0.234 10190.376 43213 10 0.667 0.223 0.365 0.395 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 2810528 0.267 7160.376 44000 02 0.000 0.220 0.326 0.359 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 309522 0.232 6180.292 43000 11 0.000 0.204 0.268 0.330 OK
Carson KellyC 279927 0.273 190.357 44100 02 0.250 0.231 0.308 0.334 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 4315838 0.241 4170.314 43000 10 0.000 0.213 0.284 0.348 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 4214226 0.183 6230.296 33000 02 0.000 0.188 0.291 0.303 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 33 38 0.156

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 227620 0.263 190.374 43000 00 0.000 0.247 0.297 0.419 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 4114733 0.224 15290.372 44000 02 0.000 0.210 0.361 0.348 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 4014735 0.238 9230.370 43110 10 0.333 0.244 0.362 0.428 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 4014934 0.228 11290.327 42110 20 0.500 0.220 0.288 0.409 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 4015143 0.285 3100.353 44112 00 0.250 0.241 0.311 0.388 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 3011326 0.230 2140.270 43112 11 0.333 0.207 0.260 0.333 OK
Jarred KelenicRF 10298 0.276 030.344 33000 01 0.000 0.223 0.294 0.333 OK
Tristan PetersCF 298723 0.264 060.319 33000 00 0.000 0.225 0.282 0.340 OK
Drew RomoC 10315 0.161 460.333 33000 02 0.000 0.190 0.319 0.346 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33284 44 46 0.143

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Edward CabreraStarter 845.43.96 1.3448.543 6.04332699 6.0 6 3
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 97.32.47 1.23311.19 1.20000021 1.2 0 0
Phil MatonMiddle Reliever 139.89.18 1.93914.716 0.10112017 0.1 0 1

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sean BurkeStarter 843.33.74 1.1097.536 6.22002598 6.2 5 0
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 1.03331122 1.0 1 3
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.10000218 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

CHW wins 4-3


Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians

CIN 23-21 (4.32 RPG / 4.91 RA)
2 - 7
CLE 24-21 (4.16 RPG / 4.07 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 7-2 TARGET: CIN 4 - 5 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 52.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CIN02000000024
CLE00110302x710

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

CIN Season Quality

Record23-21
Win%0.523
Run Diff-26
RD/Game-0.591

CLE Season Quality

Record24-21
Win%0.533
Run Diff4
RD/Game0.089

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6957; margin adjustment: 0.2922; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Will BensonCF 21579 0.158 120.284 44000 02 0.000 0.209 0.316 0.337 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 4417753 0.299 10290.359 44000 00 0.000 0.265 0.321 0.419 OK
Sal Stewart1B 4416841 0.244 10300.328 44000 01 0.000 0.225 0.309 0.375 OK
JJ BledayLF 165317 0.321 6180.455 44000 01 0.000 0.246 0.385 0.486 OK
Spencer SteerRF 4114637 0.253 7140.329 44210 01 0.500 0.231 0.297 0.382 OK
Nathaniel LoweDH 237820 0.256 6150.348 33000 00 0.000 0.220 0.313 0.394 OK
Matt McLain2B 4015233 0.217 4160.320 32100 10 0.500 0.221 0.313 0.375 OK
Tyler StephensonC 3110418 0.173 3110.275 33112 02 0.333 0.188 0.282 0.306 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 3310716 0.150 250.202 33000 01 0.000 0.195 0.240 0.302 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32314 22 18 0.129

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 4015532 0.206 190.311 55211 01 0.400 0.225 0.327 0.331 OK
José Ramírez3B 4516434 0.207 6160.340 44110 00 0.250 0.215 0.343 0.342 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 3714141 0.291 6260.370 44000 01 0.000 0.253 0.339 0.420 OK
Rhys Hoskins1B 288818 0.205 3130.351 44210 01 0.500 0.216 0.368 0.389 OK
David FryDH 175014 0.280 380.390 43000 10 0.000 0.241 0.347 0.401 OK
Angel MartínezLF 3212334 0.276 7180.321 43111 11 0.333 0.235 0.266 0.411 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 144510 0.222 160.407 43111 11 0.333 0.232 0.384 0.342 OK
Patrick BaileyC 250 0.000 010.000 43011 01 0.000 0.188 0.237 0.259
Brayan RocchioSS 4314239 0.275 3220.350 44313 00 0.750 0.239 0.305 0.346 OK
TEAM TOTALS 373310 77 36 0.303

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew AbbottStarter 944.74.63 1.5666.633 4.285534102 4.2 4 5
Graham AshcraftMiddle Reliever 2120.51.76 1.26811.025 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 1816.33.87 1.3509.417 1.22220127 1.2 1 2

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner BibeeStarter 944.44.26 1.3749.145 5.13221388 5.1 3 2
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 2020.23.12 1.13912.929 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever 2215.62.31 1.09020.235 1.20000215 1.2 2 0
Matt FestaMiddle Reliever 1915.86.27 1.51911.420 1.00000215 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 7-2


Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals

KC 19-25 (4.11 RPG / 4.57 RA)
2 - 4
STL 25-18 (4.63 RPG / 4.58 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 4-2 TARGET: KC 3 - 4 STL (STL) Confidence: 52.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
KC01000010025
STL20000002x48

KC Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak4L

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-1
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

KC Season Quality

Record19-25
Win%0.432
Run Diff-20
RD/Game-0.455

STL Season Quality

Record25-18
Win%0.581
Run Diff2
RD/Game0.047

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7254; margin adjustment: 0.3047; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 4116345 0.276 3180.344 42000 20 0.000 0.244 0.323 0.397 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 4417353 0.306 7220.381 43000 10 0.000 0.256 0.338 0.459 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 4115632 0.205 5210.285 44000 02 0.000 0.220 0.292 0.345 OK
Salvador PerezC 4216533 0.200 6180.239 43110 02 0.333 0.205 0.235 0.323 OK
Carter JensenDH 3511927 0.227 6180.324 44212 00 0.500 0.202 0.305 0.314 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 3412128 0.231 360.306 44100 01 0.250 0.211 0.270 0.364 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 3411526 0.226 3130.343 44000 02 0.000 0.208 0.300 0.330 OK
Michael Massey2B 247217 0.236 3120.250 44000 02 0.000 0.215 0.239 0.421 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 3310328 0.272 3100.330 44100 02 0.250 0.211 0.252 0.342 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 22 311 0.156

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 4216240 0.247 8220.367 43211 10 0.667 0.250 0.337 0.389 OK
Iván HerreraDH 4315942 0.264 4200.396 43100 10 0.333 0.248 0.346 0.390 OK
Alec Burleson1B 4016345 0.276 6300.343 44310 00 0.750 0.251 0.314 0.407 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 4115847 0.297 12320.374 43112 02 0.333 0.243 0.323 0.440 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 3713530 0.222 4220.299 43000 12 0.000 0.222 0.306 0.333 OK
Masyn WinnSS 3714337 0.259 1160.329 44000 01 0.000 0.227 0.292 0.364 OK
Nathan ChurchLF 3312330 0.244 4150.271 44111 00 0.250 0.231 0.263 0.353 OK
Pedro PagésC 279119 0.209 380.255 44000 02 0.000 0.199 0.233 0.309 OK
Victor Scott IICF 3510219 0.186 260.250 33000 02 0.000 0.201 0.260 0.307 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35318 44 39 0.258

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael WachaStarter 851.12.64 0.9987.442 6.152217111 6.1 7 2
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 1816.43.84 1.5248.215 1.20000231 1.2 2 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 1615.24.14 1.2509.516 0.03222017 0.0 0 2

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dustin MayStarter 842.24.91 1.4456.832 5.12112892 5.1 8 1
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2119.62.76 0.96911.525 1.11110120 1.1 1 1
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2116.84.29 1.5489.618 1.01001020 1.0 0 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 1915.24.14 1.4478.915 1.11000220 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

STL wins 4-2


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels

LAD 26-18 (4.93 RPG / 3.43 RA)
4 - 3
LAA 16-28 (4.16 RPG / 4.89 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 4-3 TARGET: LAD 4 - 3 LAA (LAD) Confidence: 52.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAD00003000148
LAA02000010036

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.6
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff-21
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

LAD Season Quality

Record25-18
Win%0.581
Run Diff63
RD/Game1.465

LAA Season Quality

Record16-28
Win%0.364
Run Diff-32
RD/Game-0.727

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.519; margin adjustment: -1.058; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 3915036 0.240 7170.370 54100 11 0.250 0.223 0.335 0.371 OK
Mookie BettsSS 10417 0.171 380.227 54212 11 0.500 0.227 0.266 0.379 OK
Will SmithC 3112031 0.258 4180.321 54211 10 0.500 0.245 0.319 0.372 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 4215740 0.255 4190.353 54011 12 0.000 0.250 0.359 0.425 OK
Andy PagesCF 4315949 0.308 9350.360 54000 11 0.000 0.237 0.297 0.397 OK
Max Muncy3B 4013837 0.268 11170.365 54000 10 0.000 0.231 0.327 0.413 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 3914137 0.262 4180.335 44100 01 0.250 0.259 0.330 0.396 OK
Dalton Rushing1B 186319 0.302 7160.371 44210 01 0.500 0.230 0.279 0.378 OK
Hyeseong Kim2B 278122 0.272 190.333 43000 10 0.000 0.218 0.286 0.334 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42358 44 77 0.229

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Vaughn Grissom2B 186618 0.273 2100.355 54111 10 0.250 0.219 0.308 0.382 OK
Mike TroutCF 4315338 0.248 11230.410 55000 01 0.000 0.213 0.360 0.355 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 3915641 0.263 3200.312 54200 11 0.500 0.233 0.280 0.365 OK
Jorge SolerDH 4014532 0.221 8280.318 54111 12 0.250 0.201 0.282 0.344 OK
Jo AdellRF 4417146 0.269 6250.310 55100 00 0.200 0.223 0.248 0.372 OK
Zach NetoSS 4417439 0.224 7200.330 54000 00 0.000 0.209 0.305 0.368 OK
Josh LoweLF 3010116 0.158 4100.211 42000 21 0.000 0.183 0.228 0.275 OK
Logan O'HoppeC 237616 0.211 180.330 43011 11 0.000 0.195 0.290 0.278 OK
Oswald Peraza3B 289927 0.273 5110.339 42100 20 0.500 0.204 0.255 0.335 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42336 33 86 0.182

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Will KleinStarter 1214.73.06 1.56510.417 4.12227498 4.1 4 2
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 2017.41.55 0.6329.318 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 1812.73.54 1.18112.818 1.02110019 1.0 0 1
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 1111.00.82 0.63613.116 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Jack DreyerMiddle Reliever 1918.82.39 1.06410.522 1.21000124 1.2 1 0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack KochanowiczStarter 843.74.12 1.3966.230 6.152256115 6.1 6 2
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 1519.84.55 1.16213.229 1.1000004 1.1 0 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 1517.33.64 1.21411.422 1.10000120 1.1 1 0
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.33315.02 0.02110019 0.0 0 1
José FerminMiddle Reliever 76.55.54 0.92311.18 0.01112017 0.0 0 1

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-3


Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays

MIA 20-25 (4.18 RPG / 4.51 RA)
2 - 5
TB 29-14 (4.56 RPG / 3.93 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 5-2 TARGET: MIA 2 - 4 TB (TB) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIA00002000026
TB20030000x59

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

MIA Season Quality

Record20-24
Win%0.455
Run Diff-10
RD/Game-0.227

TB Season Quality

Record28-14
Win%0.667
Run Diff22
RD/Game0.524

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0693; margin adjustment: 0.4491; applied: True

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 4315949 0.308 4150.399 44211 01 0.500 0.238 0.332 0.421 OK
Liam HicksDH 3412338 0.309 9380.369 44000 02 0.000 0.232 0.296 0.367 OK
Otto LopezSS 4216957 0.337 4190.369 44211 00 0.500 0.249 0.280 0.401 OK
Christopher Morel1B 10346 0.176 010.243 44000 00 0.000 0.200 0.242 0.306 OK
Kyle StowersLF 217817 0.218 130.322 43000 10 0.000 0.210 0.297 0.339 OK
Connor Norby3B 3712228 0.230 3120.336 44000 01 0.000 0.213 0.297 0.338 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 4115627 0.173 2120.297 44000 02 0.000 0.196 0.300 0.324 OK
Esteury RuizRF 6204 0.200 230.200 33000 01 0.000 0.203 0.213 0.363 OK
Joe MackC 8265 0.192 020.222 33200 00 0.667 0.195 0.230 0.336 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34336 22 17 0.182

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 3815445 0.292 080.323 55211 01 0.400 0.252 0.289 0.341 OK
Junior Caminero3B 4116041 0.256 11190.341 44212 01 0.500 0.236 0.321 0.374 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 3914441 0.285 8330.383 44100 02 0.250 0.266 0.368 0.411 OK
Yandy DíazDH 4015546 0.297 5240.375 44112 00 0.250 0.233 0.291 0.351 OK
Jake FraleyRF 237318 0.247 250.321 43110 11 0.333 0.228 0.300 0.400 OK
Richie Palacios2B 205512 0.218 180.353 43000 11 0.000 0.220 0.331 0.316 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 3312317 0.138 2130.195 44100 00 0.250 0.199 0.235 0.294 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 163910 0.256 030.370 43000 10 0.000 0.219 0.314 0.311 OK
Taylor WallsSS 309219 0.207 080.311 43110 11 0.333 0.208 0.304 0.323 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37339 55 47 0.273

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Janson JunkStarter 843.43.32 1.1296.833 5.263337101 5.2 7 3
Tyler PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1323.61.14 1.3149.525 1.11000021 1.1 0 0
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 108.310.84 1.56614.113 0.01110017 0.0 0 1
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 1815.83.42 1.5829.717 1.01111020 1.0 0 1
John KingMiddle Reliever 2114.73.06 0.9529.816 0.00000011 0.0 0 0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ian SeymourStarter 1716.33.87 1.35012.723 5.06221585 5.0 5 2
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 1916.42.74 1.09811.020 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Cole SulserMiddle Reliever 1720.62.62 1.3117.016 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 96.34.29 1.90514.310 1.20000113 1.2 1 0

Game Summary

TB wins 5-2


Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins

MIL 25-17 (5.05 RPG / 3.6 RA)
4 - 1
MIN 20-25 (4.73 RPG / 4.87 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 4-1 TARGET: MIL 4 - 3 MIN (MIL) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIL00000031045
MIN00001000015

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff17
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIL Season Quality

Record24-17
Win%0.585
Run Diff60
RD/Game1.463

MIN Season Quality

Record20-24
Win%0.455
Run Diff-5
RD/Game-0.114

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.7733; margin adjustment: -0.7448; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 83510 0.286 030.342 43111 12 0.333 0.233 0.294 0.383 OK
Brice Turang2B 3814142 0.298 6270.422 44000 01 0.000 0.258 0.383 0.451 OK
William ContrerasC 3815243 0.283 3260.364 44100 00 0.250 0.243 0.335 0.369 OK
Jake Bauers1B 3212033 0.275 6200.356 43211 11 0.667 0.256 0.342 0.435 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 3110925 0.229 1220.346 43000 11 0.000 0.222 0.327 0.377 OK
Andrew VaughnDH 7247 0.292 160.414 43000 11 0.000 0.245 0.329 0.433 OK
Sal FrelickRF 3412427 0.218 3100.297 43011 00 0.000 0.226 0.292 0.315 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 2910825 0.231 0140.300 44111 01 0.250 0.236 0.305 0.360 OK
David HamiltonSS 319723 0.237 070.333 44000 02 0.000 0.214 0.299 0.294 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36315 44 49 0.161

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Austin MartinRF 289833 0.337 1100.455 54311 00 0.750 0.274 0.384 0.409 OK
Brooks LeeSS 3914537 0.255 5220.312 43000 02 0.000 0.226 0.282 0.352 OK
Ryan JeffersC 3010832 0.296 6250.403 43000 12 0.000 0.251 0.362 0.463 OK
Josh BellDH 4015232 0.211 3230.280 44000 01 0.000 0.210 0.267 0.329 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 4215535 0.226 1150.311 42000 21 0.000 0.210 0.297 0.318 OK
Kody Clemens1B 279422 0.234 4100.339 44000 02 0.000 0.227 0.302 0.408 OK
Royce Lewis3B 289315 0.161 3120.269 44100 00 0.250 0.191 0.282 0.301 OK
Ryan KreidlerCF 6175 0.294 240.455 44100 01 0.250 0.228 0.389 0.413 OK
James OutmanLF 8286 0.214 030.241 44000 02 0.000 0.212 0.245 0.383 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37325 11 311 0.156

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Coleman CrowStarter 15.13.53 0.9807.14 5.04112883 5.0 8 1
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 1814.75.51 1.29310.417 1.01001220 1.0 2 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 2024.22.23 1.40516.043 1.10000120 1.1 1 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 1515.03.60 1.20011.419 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
DL HallMiddle Reliever 1817.22.09 1.45311.522 0.20000020 0.2 0 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joe RyanStarter 944.23.46 1.0419.245 5.22222797 5.2 7 2
Justin TopaMiddle Reliever 2214.78.57 2.2459.215 1.03112130 1.0 1 1
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 1716.25.00 1.7288.916 1.10110125 1.1 1 1
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 1613.33.38 1.7298.813 1.00000018 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-1


New York Yankees @ New York Mets

NYY 27-17 (5.07 RPG / 3.5 RA)
5 - 2
NYM 18-25 (3.74 RPG / 4.14 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 5-2 TARGET: NYY 4 - 2 NYM (NYY) Confidence: 53.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYY01000121055
NYM00010100023

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff18
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

NYY Season Quality

Record27-17
Win%0.614
Run Diff69
RD/Game1.568

NYM Season Quality

Record18-25
Win%0.419
Run Diff-17
RD/Game-0.395

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.2561; margin adjustment: -0.9476; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 3612822 0.172 4210.312 54110 10 0.250 0.214 0.352 0.375 OK
Ben Rice1B 3512838 0.297 12270.409 55000 02 0.000 0.240 0.350 0.447 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 4415742 0.268 16300.404 42011 11 0.000 0.241 0.380 0.442 OK
Cody BellingerLF 4215241 0.270 5270.377 43000 11 0.000 0.228 0.353 0.405 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 4015031 0.207 4140.286 44100 01 0.250 0.209 0.281 0.337 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 3010017 0.170 290.224 43110 10 0.333 0.195 0.242 0.293 OK
Spencer JonesDH 5121 0.083 010.267 43213 11 0.667 0.201 0.343 0.291 OK
Anthony VolpeSS 130 0.000 000.000 43011 01 0.000 0.206 0.218 0.300
Austin WellsC 329918 0.182 350.305 43000 11 0.000 0.194 0.303 0.285 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38305 55 68 0.167

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 3512530 0.240 3130.301 43000 11 0.000 0.242 0.299 0.360 OK
Bo BichetteSS 4317438 0.218 2180.270 44000 03 0.000 0.201 0.265 0.289 OK
Juan SotoLF 2710327 0.262 5130.353 43111 10 0.333 0.219 0.309 0.373 OK
Mark Vientos1B 3211527 0.235 6190.282 43000 11 0.000 0.217 0.258 0.368 OK
MJ MelendezDH 174613 0.283 260.389 44111 00 0.250 0.216 0.319 0.400 OK
Brett Baty3B 3311627 0.233 2140.291 44100 02 0.250 0.215 0.272 0.360 OK
Marcus Semien2B 4315435 0.227 3140.286 44000 02 0.000 0.213 0.272 0.335 OK
A.J. EwingCF 393 0.333 130.538 32000 10 0.000 0.210 0.422 0.498 OK
Luis TorrensC 14438 0.186 040.239 33000 01 0.000 0.195 0.234 0.326 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34303 22 410 0.100

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cam SchlittlerStarter 952.41.37 0.82110.159 6.011146107 6.0 6 1
David BednarMiddle Reliever 1816.63.80 1.44611.922 1.01110117 1.0 1 1
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 2011.33.98 2.12419.124 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2014.51.24 0.9664.37 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 2217.72.54 1.58211.723 0.01000017 0.0 0 0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Clay HolmesStarter 846.71.93 1.0497.137 6.022235106 6.0 5 2
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 1512.54.32 1.44015.822 1.02220019 1.0 0 2
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 1715.74.59 1.3389.717 1.01113228 1.0 2 1
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 1814.91.21 1.07412.120 1.00000120 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-2


Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

PHI 21-23 (4.0 RPG / 4.7 RA)
4 - 5
PIT 24-20 (5.0 RPG / 4.27 RA)
WINNER: PIT wins 5-4 TARGET: PHI 4 - 5 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PHI00100030047
PIT10000001356

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

PHI Season Quality

Record21-23
Win%0.477
Run Diff-31
RD/Game-0.705

PIT Season Quality

Record24-20
Win%0.545
Run Diff32
RD/Game0.727

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.5341; margin adjustment: 0.6443; applied: True

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 4217641 0.233 4130.280 54212 11 0.500 0.226 0.269 0.337 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 4416437 0.226 18300.355 53000 21 0.000 0.227 0.335 0.492 OK
Bryce Harper1B 4315842 0.266 10240.361 43112 11 0.333 0.234 0.332 0.426 OK
Alec Bohm3B 3914328 0.196 3200.258 44000 01 0.000 0.231 0.285 0.362 OK
Brandon MarshRF 3714148 0.340 4210.364 44110 03 0.250 0.261 0.291 0.387 OK
Bryson Stott2B 3312226 0.213 3150.262 44000 03 0.000 0.215 0.256 0.380 OK
Edmundo SosaLF 186114 0.230 180.242 44000 01 0.000 0.215 0.231 0.334 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 3511733 0.282 2100.354 44210 00 0.500 0.234 0.304 0.423 OK
Garrett StubbsC 5154 0.267 010.294 44100 01 0.250 0.209 0.259 0.292 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 44 412 0.206

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 4117646 0.261 10300.326 44111 00 0.250 0.254 0.313 0.425 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 3714436 0.250 10280.355 44000 02 0.000 0.229 0.339 0.422 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 4215038 0.253 4260.396 43111 10 0.333 0.236 0.372 0.363 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 4015346 0.301 7290.374 43100 00 0.333 0.254 0.326 0.412 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 3513926 0.187 4140.271 44111 00 0.250 0.207 0.288 0.322 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 3411230 0.268 2170.391 44011 00 0.000 0.248 0.376 0.412 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 3613635 0.257 3180.320 44211 00 0.500 0.232 0.288 0.393 OK
Endy RodríguezC 132 0.667 020.750 32000 11 0.000 0.227 0.398 0.665 MODERATE
Jared Triolo3B 11399 0.231 020.302 33000 01 0.000 0.214 0.271 0.331 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34316 55 24 0.194

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron NolaStarter 840.65.32 1.5279.844 5.03220492 5.0 4 2
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 1211.21.61 1.16115.319 1.1000004 1.1 0 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 1917.54.11 1.31411.823 1.0000006 1.0 0 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 2011.57.04 2.43515.720 0.01111015 0.0 0 1
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 1713.72.63 1.3147.211 0.2222105 0.2 0 2

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braxton AshcraftStarter 847.52.84 1.0749.751 6.131138113 6.1 8 1
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2120.41.76 0.73511.526 1.03331126 1.0 1 3
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 1917.43.62 1.3225.210 1.00000218 1.0 2 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 1714.13.19 1.48916.626 0.21000114 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 5-4


San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners

SD 25-18 (4.14 RPG / 4.21 RA)
6 - 3
SEA 22-23 (4.24 RPG / 3.89 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 6-3 TARGET: SD 4 - 3 SEA (SD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SD01010202068
SEA10001001037

SD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-2
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

SD Season Quality

Record25-18
Win%0.581
Run Diff-3
RD/Game-0.070

SEA Season Quality

Record22-23
Win%0.489
Run Diff16
RD/Game0.356

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2866; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson MerrillCF 4015834 0.215 4180.287 54010 12 0.000 0.217 0.288 0.344 OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 4115638 0.244 0140.320 44000 00 0.000 0.220 0.300 0.317 OK
Manny Machado3B 4114728 0.190 6200.287 43010 11 0.000 0.199 0.286 0.325 OK
Gavin Sheets1B 3211024 0.218 4120.283 44313 00 0.750 0.220 0.286 0.386 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 4115138 0.252 6210.327 44313 00 0.750 0.216 0.288 0.324 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 3011233 0.295 3120.319 44000 02 0.000 0.228 0.249 0.429 OK
Ramón LaureanoLF 3613630 0.221 5190.303 44000 02 0.000 0.197 0.287 0.334 OK
Sung-Mun Song2B 5122 0.167 020.286 44110 02 0.250 0.197 0.300 0.343 OK
Freddy FerminC 237413 0.176 030.267 44110 01 0.250 0.194 0.263 0.298 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 66 210 0.229

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brendan Donovan3B 227922 0.278 380.383 55200 00 0.400 0.246 0.318 0.411 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 4518047 0.261 7200.325 55100 01 0.200 0.232 0.289 0.395 OK
Josh Naylor1B 4216641 0.247 5200.311 43112 00 0.333 0.243 0.308 0.367 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 4516349 0.301 4160.389 43210 10 0.667 0.271 0.344 0.436 OK
Luke RaleyRF 3210529 0.276 9250.339 43000 00 0.000 0.241 0.293 0.453 OK
J.P. CrawfordSS 3612928 0.217 5150.365 43000 10 0.000 0.226 0.355 0.367 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 298222 0.268 4170.333 44111 00 0.250 0.231 0.298 0.413 OK
Cole Young2B 4515739 0.248 3240.328 43000 11 0.000 0.205 0.276 0.329 OK
Jhonny PeredaC 252 0.400 000.400 44000 03 0.000 0.217 0.230 0.304 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38337 33 35 0.212

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Randy VásquezStarter 843.43.11 1.1988.742 5.25222594 5.2 5 2
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 1919.20.94 0.67718.840 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 1412.31.46 0.8943.75 1.01000017 1.0 0 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 1817.56.69 1.54313.426 1.01110019 1.0 0 1
Jeremiah EstradaMiddle Reliever 1210.84.17 1.20413.316 0.10000015 0.1 0 0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emerson HancockStarter 847.23.24 1.0179.550 6.06330699 6.0 6 3
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 1816.35.52 1.41116.029 1.01110216 1.0 2 1
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 2216.62.71 1.5069.217 1.01222024 1.0 0 2
Cooper CriswellMiddle Reliever 1517.32.08 0.9258.316 1.00000216 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

SD wins 6-3


San Francisco Giants @ Oakland Athletics

SF 18-26 (3.34 RPG / 4.36 RA)
2 - 6
OAK 22-21 (4.42 RPG / 4.53 RA)
WINNER: OAK wins 6-2 TARGET: SF 3 - 5 OAK (OAK) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SF00200000025
OAK00230100x611

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SF Season Quality

Record18-25
Win%0.419
Run Diff-42
RD/Game-0.977

OAK Season Quality

Record22-21
Win%0.512
Run Diff-5
RD/Game-0.116

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0; margin adjustment: 0.42; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jung Hoo LeeRF 4316444 0.268 3150.316 44100 00 0.250 0.241 0.279 0.397 OK
Luis Arraez2B 4116249 0.302 0140.339 44211 01 0.500 0.243 0.295 0.365 OK
Matt Chapman3B 4216036 0.225 1140.303 43000 11 0.000 0.212 0.280 0.336 OK
Rafael Devers1B 4416641 0.247 5180.294 44111 00 0.250 0.246 0.302 0.413 OK
Heliot RamosLF 4115942 0.264 4190.302 43000 11 0.000 0.225 0.270 0.405 OK
Willy AdamesSS 4317438 0.218 3110.253 44000 00 0.000 0.228 0.259 0.355 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 6202 0.100 110.143 44000 01 0.000 0.202 0.240 0.304 OK
Daniel SusacC 51911 0.579 050.600 33000 00 0.000 0.247 0.286 0.503 OK
Harrison BaderCF 16578 0.140 240.167 33100 00 0.333 0.185 0.215 0.308 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 22 24 0.156

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Kurtz1B 4215342 0.275 7260.428 44211 00 0.500 0.266 0.410 0.469 OK
Shea LangeliersC 3916255 0.340 12270.397 44212 01 0.500 0.273 0.338 0.471 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 4015430 0.195 5200.277 44000 01 0.000 0.202 0.276 0.370 OK
Brent RookerDH 269919 0.192 5180.287 44111 01 0.250 0.219 0.320 0.356 OK
Henry BolteCF 263 0.500 010.500 44110 02 0.250 0.236 0.335 0.326 OK
Zack Gelof3B 207119 0.268 5130.316 44100 01 0.250 0.234 0.286 0.421 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 3010720 0.187 3120.298 43110 10 0.333 0.208 0.317 0.321 OK
Darell HernaizSS 185613 0.232 150.328 44212 00 0.500 0.222 0.311 0.297 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 3412135 0.289 1120.353 44100 01 0.250 0.214 0.275 0.332 OK
TEAM TOTALS 363511 66 17 0.314

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler MahleStarter 840.55.33 1.5319.342 5.09551494 5.0 4 5
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 1817.01.59 1.23510.119 1.0100017 1.0 1 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 1917.42.59 0.8627.815 0.11110114 0.1 1 1
Joel PegueroMiddle Reliever 54.42.05 0.9092.01 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Matt GageMiddle Reliever 2213.22.05 1.6678.913 0.20000013 0.2 0 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron CivaleStarter 840.52.67 1.4327.333 5.24112491 5.2 4 1
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 2315.43.51 2.27313.423 0.20000011 0.2 0 0
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 1612.43.63 1.2904.46 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 1917.31.56 0.8099.418 1.0100004 1.0 0 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 2015.18.94 1.98711.920 0.20110015 0.2 0 1

Game Summary

OAK wins 6-2


Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

TEX 21-22 (3.77 RPG / 3.77 RA)
4 - 2
HOU 17-28 (4.58 RPG / 5.64 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 4-2 TARGET: TEX 4 - 2 HOU (TEX) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TEX01000020148
HOU01000000128

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.8
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-25
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

TEX Season Quality

Record21-22
Win%0.488
Run Diff0
RD/Game0.000

HOU Season Quality

Record17-28
Win%0.378
Run Diff-48
RD/Game-1.067

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.2326; margin adjustment: -0.5177; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 329118 0.198 270.296 55000 01 0.000 0.230 0.323 0.370 OK
Ezequiel DuranSS 299628 0.292 3140.367 54211 11 0.500 0.252 0.331 0.445 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 4116045 0.281 4120.359 55112 01 0.200 0.244 0.315 0.386 OK
Josh Jung3B 3915049 0.327 5200.374 44100 00 0.250 0.271 0.311 0.443 OK
Evan CarterCF 3812223 0.189 5130.306 43000 10 0.000 0.210 0.317 0.357 OK
Jake Burger1B 4015735 0.223 6240.259 44111 00 0.250 0.231 0.267 0.366 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 13338 0.242 050.419 43210 11 0.667 0.236 0.340 0.336 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 176111 0.180 150.254 43100 10 0.333 0.199 0.266 0.287 OK
Justin Foscue2B 261 0.167 110.167 44000 02 0.000 0.209 0.221 0.322 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39358 44 46 0.229

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brice Matthews2B 289519 0.200 4120.245 55211 01 0.400 0.207 0.251 0.353 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 3914337 0.259 3170.350 55000 01 0.000 0.227 0.296 0.342 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 4516553 0.321 14300.429 43000 10 0.000 0.247 0.355 0.445 OK
Christian Walker1B 4416244 0.272 10290.343 44200 02 0.500 0.209 0.278 0.385 OK
Braden ShewmakeSS 93412 0.353 250.353 44000 02 0.000 0.237 0.246 0.365 OK
Zach DezenzoLF 4133 0.231 120.286 43100 10 0.333 0.213 0.269 0.444 OK
Zach ColeCF 8276 0.222 130.250 44111 02 0.250 0.214 0.223 0.331 OK
Cam SmithRF 4114428 0.194 3150.291 43000 10 0.000 0.180 0.271 0.279 OK
Christian VázquezC 206819 0.279 3120.338 44200 00 0.500 0.204 0.265 0.350 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 22 38 0.229

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack LeiterStarter 840.85.07 1.49510.849 5.15112494 5.1 4 1
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 1720.50.88 0.4397.517 1.11000120 1.1 1 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1618.31.97 0.8204.49 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 1914.95.44 1.67811.519 1.02111122 1.0 1 1

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer ArrighettiStarter 528.21.91 1.3489.630 5.25222698 5.2 6 2
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 1515.83.99 1.6468.515 1.11002028 1.1 0 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 1512.59.36 2.40015.121 1.01110019 1.0 0 1
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 1615.74.59 1.2109.216 1.01110018 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

TEX wins 4-2


Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers

TOR 19-25 (4.14 RPG / 4.48 RA)
2 - 4
DET 20-25 (4.13 RPG / 4.33 RA)
WINNER: DET wins 4-2 TARGET: TOR 3 - 4 DET (DET) Confidence: 52.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TOR10000001027
DET20002000x44

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

DET Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff-22
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

TOR Season Quality

Record19-24
Win%0.442
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.326

DET Season Quality

Record19-25
Win%0.432
Run Diff-10
RD/Game-0.227

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0832; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 249218 0.196 270.288 54211 11 0.500 0.229 0.306 0.358 OK
Yohendrick PinangoLF 103111 0.355 040.412 44100 02 0.250 0.243 0.308 0.353 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 4215545 0.290 2180.383 43000 10 0.000 0.225 0.321 0.331 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 4215537 0.239 10270.328 44111 02 0.250 0.222 0.317 0.360 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 3714034 0.243 5130.316 44000 02 0.000 0.234 0.297 0.365 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 3111130 0.270 5160.311 44000 04 0.000 0.239 0.279 0.374 OK
Ernie Clement2B 4217050 0.294 2120.312 44100 01 0.250 0.255 0.276 0.396 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 3713635 0.257 5230.285 44200 01 0.500 0.214 0.236 0.376 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 195914 0.237 4100.318 43000 12 0.000 0.218 0.306 0.360 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 22 315 0.206

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigleSS 4115646 0.295 2160.402 44110 01 0.250 0.247 0.355 0.407 OK
Dillon DinglerC 3413132 0.244 8270.312 43000 11 0.000 0.227 0.277 0.418 OK
Colt KeithDH 3010530 0.286 040.330 33000 01 0.000 0.239 0.285 0.369 OK
Riley GreeneLF 4315652 0.333 4220.429 33000 01 0.000 0.275 0.377 0.432 OK
Matt VierlingCF 269319 0.204 1140.279 33112 01 0.333 0.200 0.278 0.361 OK
Gage Workman3B 283 0.375 130.375 33000 01 0.000 0.221 0.231 0.562 OK
Zach McKinstryRF 196211 0.177 150.250 33110 01 0.333 0.202 0.274 0.304 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 4114028 0.200 6160.319 33112 01 0.333 0.189 0.299 0.330 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 13407 0.175 040.233 33000 00 0.000 0.193 0.248 0.351 OK
TEAM TOTALS 29284 44 18 0.143

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trey YesavageStarter 313.10.69 1.37410.315 4.14441581 4.1 5 4
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 2119.10.47 1.36115.132 1.1000027 1.1 2 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 2017.72.03 1.2436.112 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 2017.56.17 1.88616.532 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brenan HanifeeStarter 67.41.22 1.2164.94 3.03112867 3.0 8 1
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 129.42.87 1.17014.415 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 1918.80.48 1.3836.714 2.01000233 2.0 2 0
Burch SmithMiddle Reliever 911.33.98 1.68113.517 1.11110123 1.1 1 1
Brant HurterMiddle Reliever 1717.72.03 1.0177.615 1.22000227 1.2 2 0

Game Summary

DET wins 4-2