| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ TEX | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | ARI wins 4-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| CHC @ ATL | 4 - 5 | 3 - 6 | ATL wins 6-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| COL @ PIT | 2 - 6 | 3 - 5 | PIT wins 5-3 | 62% | enhanced_ml |
| DET @ NYM | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 | NYM wins 4-2 | 61% | enhanced_ml |
| KC @ CHW | 4 - 5 | 6 - 4 | KC wins 6-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| LAA @ CLE | 3 - 4 | 2 - 5 | CLE wins 5-2 | 54% | enhanced_ml |
| MIA @ MIN | 4 - 5 | 3 - 5 | MIN wins 5-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| NYY @ BAL | 5 - 4 | 4 - 3 | NYY wins 4-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml |
| PHI @ BOS | 4 - 2 | 4 - 1 | PHI wins 4-1 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| SD @ MIL | 1 - 5 | 2 - 6 | MIL wins 6-2 | 62% | enhanced_ml |
| SEA @ HOU | 5 - 4 | 6 - 3 | SEA wins 6-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml |
| SF @ LAD | 6 - 2 | 7 - 3 | SF wins 7-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| STL @ OAK | 3 - 5 | 3 - 6 | OAK wins 6-3 (Extra Innings - 10) | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| TB @ TOR | 4 - 3 | 4 - 2 | TB wins 4-2 | 54% | enhanced_ml |
| WAS @ CIN | 6 - 2 | 5 - 3 | WAS wins 5-3 | 61% | enhanced_ml |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| TEX | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 37 | 153 | 32 | 0.209 | 5 | 15 | 0.258 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.216 | 0.344 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 39 | 137 | 36 | 0.263 | 5 | 20 | 0.364 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.355 | 0.392 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 38 | 130 | 29 | 0.223 | 2 | 12 | 0.335 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.260 | 0.277 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 38 | 130 | 35 | 0.269 | 6 | 18 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.344 | 0.433 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 32 | 130 | 42 | 0.323 | 7 | 23 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.221 | 0.255 | 0.369 | OK |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | LF | 17 | 62 | 12 | 0.194 | 0 | 5 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.183 | 0.252 | 0.240 | OK |
| Adrian Del Castillo | DH | 22 | 81 | 15 | 0.185 | 2 | 13 | 0.230 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.176 | 0.245 | 0.288 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 18 | 64 | 12 | 0.188 | 1 | 7 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.134 | 0.215 | 0.229 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 4 | 13 | 3 | 0.231 | 0 | 3 | 0.231 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.283 | 0.392 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joc Pederson | DH | 31 | 87 | 18 | 0.207 | 2 | 7 | 0.308 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.264 | 0.348 | 0.482 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 40 | 156 | 45 | 0.288 | 4 | 12 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.342 | 0.366 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 41 | 152 | 28 | 0.184 | 7 | 20 | 0.292 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.098 | 0.195 | 0.174 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 38 | 146 | 47 | 0.322 | 5 | 20 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.319 | 0.342 | 0.459 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 37 | 118 | 21 | 0.178 | 5 | 13 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.134 | 0.280 | 0.329 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | 2B | 28 | 92 | 27 | 0.293 | 3 | 13 | 0.371 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.283 | 0.345 | 0.476 | OK |
| Alejandro Osuna | LF | 12 | 31 | 8 | 0.258 | 0 | 5 | 0.410 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.282 | 0.370 | 0.358 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 39 | 153 | 33 | 0.216 | 5 | 20 | 0.253 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.293 | 0.328 | OK |
| Danny Jansen | C | 25 | 81 | 16 | 0.198 | 2 | 8 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.156 | 0.308 | 0.262 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ryne Nelson | Starter | 8 | 35.2 | 6.14 | 1.364 | 8.9 | 35 | 4.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 94 | 4.2 | 8 | 2 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 7.5 | 1 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.476 | 8.6 | 2 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kumar Rocker | Starter | 7 | 31.4 | 5.16 | 1.561 | 7.7 | 27 | 4.2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 93 | 4.2 | 3 | 3 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 17 | 20.5 | 0.88 | 0.439 | 7.5 | 17 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 16 | 18.3 | 1.97 | 0.820 | 4.4 | 9 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Cole Winn | Middle Reliever | 18 | 13.9 | 5.18 | 1.655 | 11.7 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
ARI wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | x | 6 | 7 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 40 | 164 | 44 | 0.268 | 4 | 28 | 0.346 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.197 | 0.273 | 0.303 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | DH | 29 | 91 | 22 | 0.242 | 6 | 18 | 0.304 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.107 | 0.173 | 0.198 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 40 | 161 | 37 | 0.230 | 4 | 13 | 0.324 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.205 | 0.286 | 0.343 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 40 | 149 | 34 | 0.228 | 9 | 18 | 0.365 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.169 | 0.321 | 0.310 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 26 | 97 | 28 | 0.289 | 7 | 16 | 0.402 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.351 | 0.433 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 40 | 148 | 34 | 0.230 | 3 | 22 | 0.348 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.283 | 0.430 | 0.430 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 26 | 96 | 26 | 0.271 | 1 | 9 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.171 | 0.251 | 0.214 | OK |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 41 | 152 | 37 | 0.243 | 4 | 17 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.299 | 0.351 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 40 | 136 | 26 | 0.191 | 6 | 23 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.160 | 0.222 | 0.243 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0.188 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 40 | 148 | 39 | 0.264 | 2 | 23 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.300 | 0.336 | OK |
| Drake Baldwin | DH | 42 | 169 | 50 | 0.296 | 10 | 32 | 0.380 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.248 | 0.360 | 0.477 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 42 | 163 | 49 | 0.301 | 8 | 25 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.194 | 0.268 | 0.288 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 42 | 163 | 48 | 0.294 | 14 | 37 | 0.374 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.249 | 0.316 | 0.523 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 41 | 157 | 35 | 0.223 | 6 | 25 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.289 | 0.331 | 0.498 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 33 | 127 | 38 | 0.299 | 6 | 19 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.289 | 0.310 | 0.370 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.299 | 0.348 | |
| Sandy León | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.296 | 0.380 | |
| José Azocar | RF | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.229 | 0.286 | 0.370 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shota Imanaga | Starter | 8 | 47.1 | 2.29 | 0.934 | 10.1 | 53 | 3.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 92 | 3.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 8 | 6.3 | 2.86 | 1.270 | 10.0 | 7 | 2.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 2.1 | 2 | 3 |
| Phil Maton | Middle Reliever | 11 | 7.8 | 9.23 | 1.923 | 15.0 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.0 | 4.20 | 1.733 | 11.4 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| JR Ritchie | Starter | 3 | 17.1 | 3.68 | 1.520 | 6.8 | 13 | 3.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 87 | 3.2 | 4 | 3 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 11 | 11.2 | 0.00 | 0.625 | 12.1 | 15 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.3 | 0.55 | 0.920 | 8.8 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.5 | 0.97 | 0.486 | 11.2 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Kinley | Middle Reliever | 19 | 16.4 | 3.84 | 1.402 | 10.4 | 19 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Bummer | Middle Reliever | 17 | 10.2 | 6.18 | 1.961 | 9.7 | 11 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
ATL wins 6-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 7 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Edouard Julien | 2B | 28 | 98 | 27 | 0.276 | 2 | 12 | 0.366 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.328 | 0.324 | OK |
| Mickey Moniak | CF | 30 | 115 | 36 | 0.313 | 11 | 20 | 0.360 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.233 | 0.286 | 0.412 | OK |
| Tyler Freeman | RF | 19 | 73 | 18 | 0.247 | 2 | 9 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.305 | 0.408 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 38 | 145 | 38 | 0.262 | 4 | 20 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.276 | 0.346 | 0.422 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | DH | 32 | 117 | 38 | 0.325 | 2 | 16 | 0.383 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.362 | 0.451 | 0.492 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 36 | 110 | 24 | 0.218 | 1 | 9 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.316 | 0.370 | OK |
| Jake McCarthy | LF | 26 | 77 | 21 | 0.273 | 2 | 13 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.294 | 0.348 | 0.595 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 37 | 138 | 27 | 0.196 | 1 | 10 | 0.243 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.192 | 0.235 | 0.231 | OK |
| Brett Sullivan | C | 17 | 59 | 13 | 0.220 | 0 | 6 | 0.270 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.173 | 0.261 | 0.252 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0.212 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 39 | 168 | 45 | 0.268 | 10 | 29 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.317 | 0.392 | 0.510 | OK |
| Konnor Griffin | SS | 34 | 128 | 32 | 0.250 | 3 | 18 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.223 | 0.291 | 0.389 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 40 | 142 | 36 | 0.254 | 4 | 24 | 0.402 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.257 | 0.396 | 0.375 | OK |
| Marcell Ozuna | DH | 33 | 132 | 25 | 0.189 | 4 | 14 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.226 | 0.348 | 0.410 | OK |
| Ryan O'Hearn | RF | 38 | 145 | 41 | 0.283 | 5 | 26 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.282 | 0.266 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 35 | 138 | 45 | 0.326 | 0 | 19 | 0.384 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.319 | 0.414 | 0.405 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 35 | 136 | 36 | 0.265 | 10 | 28 | 0.369 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.323 | 0.409 | 0.671 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | 1B | 9 | 34 | 6 | 0.176 | 0 | 1 | 0.243 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.283 | 0.327 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 25 | 83 | 13 | 0.157 | 2 | 7 | 0.263 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.177 | 0.299 | 0.390 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 30 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0.233 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jose Quintana | Starter | 6 | 28.6 | 4.09 | 1.399 | 4.4 | 14 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 69 | 4.1 | 3 | 2 |
| Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever | 15 | 15.4 | 7.01 | 2.078 | 8.2 | 14 | 1.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 38 | 1.2 | 1 | 3 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 11 | 21.3 | 1.27 | 0.939 | 9.3 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 16 | 17.0 | 5.29 | 1.824 | 13.2 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Mitch Keller | Starter | 8 | 47.0 | 2.87 | 1.043 | 6.7 | 35 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 97 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 21 | 20.4 | 1.76 | 0.735 | 11.5 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.4 | 3.84 | 1.402 | 5.5 | 10 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 16 | 13.1 | 3.44 | 1.527 | 15.8 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
PIT wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | x | 4 | 6 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kevin McGonigle | 3B | 39 | 149 | 45 | 0.302 | 2 | 16 | 0.406 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.236 | 0.377 | 0.314 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 32 | 122 | 29 | 0.238 | 7 | 26 | 0.311 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.173 | 0.239 | 0.375 | OK |
| Colt Keith | DH | 28 | 98 | 29 | 0.296 | 0 | 4 | 0.337 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.276 | 0.342 | 0.354 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 41 | 148 | 47 | 0.318 | 4 | 20 | 0.416 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.406 | 0.481 | 0.584 | OK |
| Matt Vierling | CF | 25 | 89 | 19 | 0.213 | 1 | 14 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.206 | 0.290 | 0.346 | OK |
| Wenceel Pérez | RF | 20 | 72 | 11 | 0.153 | 0 | 5 | 0.197 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.231 | 0.264 | 0.306 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 39 | 134 | 28 | 0.209 | 6 | 16 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.179 | 0.265 | 0.320 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | 2B | 17 | 54 | 9 | 0.167 | 1 | 5 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.148 | 0.256 | 0.218 | OK |
| Zack Short | SS | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.188 | 0.312 | 0.303 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 33 | 115 | 25 | 0.217 | 3 | 12 | 0.286 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.318 | 0.394 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 41 | 166 | 37 | 0.223 | 2 | 17 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.156 | 0.264 | 0.189 | OK |
| Juan Soto | DH | 25 | 95 | 25 | 0.263 | 4 | 11 | 0.360 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.193 | 0.275 | 0.328 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | 1B | 30 | 108 | 25 | 0.231 | 5 | 17 | 0.276 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.265 | 0.450 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 41 | 147 | 33 | 0.224 | 2 | 13 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.215 | 0.298 | 0.284 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 31 | 109 | 25 | 0.229 | 1 | 12 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.235 | 0.308 | 0.334 | OK |
| Tyrone Taylor | LF | 18 | 52 | 12 | 0.231 | 1 | 5 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.251 | 0.333 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0 | 2 | 0.800 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.281 | 0.376 | 0.552 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 13 | 40 | 7 | 0.175 | 0 | 4 | 0.214 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.204 | 0.269 | 0.328 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Framber Valdez | Starter | 8 | 43.1 | 4.59 | 1.415 | 7.3 | 35 | 3.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 86 | 3.2 | 1 | 3 |
| Kenley Jansen | Middle Reliever | 11 | 8.4 | 3.21 | 1.310 | 12.9 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.7 | 0.51 | 1.412 | 6.6 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Burch Smith | Middle Reliever | 9 | 11.3 | 3.98 | 1.681 | 13.5 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brant Hurter | Middle Reliever | 17 | 17.7 | 2.03 | 1.017 | 7.6 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Christian Scott | Starter | 3 | 10.3 | 3.50 | 1.262 | 13.1 | 15 | 4.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 83 | 4.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 14 | 11.5 | 4.70 | 1.478 | 16.4 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 16 | 14.7 | 4.90 | 1.293 | 9.8 | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.9 | 1.29 | 1.079 | 12.3 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Huascar Brazobán | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.7 | 3.06 | 1.361 | 8.6 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
NYM wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| CHW | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 39 | 155 | 44 | 0.284 | 3 | 17 | 0.347 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.330 | 0.387 | 0.465 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 42 | 167 | 51 | 0.305 | 6 | 20 | 0.372 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.388 | 0.435 | 0.736 | OK |
| Lane Thomas | CF | 20 | 63 | 12 | 0.190 | 1 | 4 | 0.329 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.180 | 0.328 | 0.254 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | DH | 40 | 157 | 31 | 0.197 | 6 | 18 | 0.238 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.169 | 0.232 | 0.321 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | 2B | 11 | 35 | 7 | 0.200 | 0 | 6 | 0.317 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.184 | 0.292 | 0.261 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 39 | 148 | 31 | 0.209 | 5 | 19 | 0.292 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.274 | 0.332 | 0.409 | OK |
| Starling Marte | RF | 10 | 33 | 11 | 0.333 | 0 | 2 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.334 | 0.378 | 0.444 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 32 | 109 | 26 | 0.239 | 3 | 13 | 0.349 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.232 | 0.315 | 0.361 | OK |
| Elias Díaz | C | 5 | 16 | 4 | 0.250 | 1 | 3 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.301 | 0.455 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 38 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 21 | 72 | 19 | 0.264 | 1 | 9 | 0.372 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.289 | 0.367 | 0.383 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 39 | 142 | 32 | 0.225 | 15 | 29 | 0.362 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.168 | 0.300 | 0.395 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 38 | 139 | 33 | 0.237 | 9 | 23 | 0.372 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.309 | 0.410 | 0.621 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 39 | 145 | 31 | 0.214 | 10 | 28 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.179 | 0.256 | 0.414 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 38 | 146 | 41 | 0.281 | 3 | 8 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.311 | 0.355 | 0.529 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 28 | 106 | 26 | 0.245 | 2 | 14 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.318 | 0.361 | 0.378 | OK |
| Jarred Kelenic | RF | 8 | 23 | 6 | 0.261 | 0 | 1 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.295 | 0.301 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 28 | 83 | 21 | 0.253 | 0 | 5 | 0.311 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.230 | 0.292 | 0.340 | OK |
| Drew Romo | C | 9 | 27 | 5 | 0.185 | 4 | 5 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.190 | 0.301 | 0.437 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Seth Lugo | Starter | 8 | 46.5 | 3.29 | 1.398 | 8.1 | 42 | 3.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 80 | 3.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.4 | 3.51 | 1.494 | 8.2 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Strahm | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.2 | 4.14 | 1.250 | 9.5 | 16 | 1.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 1.1 | 0 | 3 |
| Nick Mears | Middle Reliever | 17 | 12.8 | 3.52 | 1.406 | 7.7 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.7 | 2.29 | 0.828 | 13.2 | 23 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Schreiber | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.2 | 4.09 | 1.742 | 4.1 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Noah Schultz | Starter | 5 | 24.3 | 4.81 | 1.358 | 8.5 | 23 | 4.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 88 | 4.2 | 4 | 2 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever | 1 | 2.1 | 8.57 | 1.905 | 4.3 | 1 | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever | 12 | 9.8 | 1.84 | 1.939 | 13.8 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
KC wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | x | 5 | 8 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Vaughn Grissom | 1B | 17 | 64 | 18 | 0.281 | 2 | 10 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.294 | 0.418 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 42 | 149 | 38 | 0.255 | 11 | 23 | 0.419 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.248 | 0.363 | 0.369 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 43 | 167 | 46 | 0.275 | 6 | 25 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.357 | 0.399 | 0.698 | OK |
| Jorge Soler | DH | 39 | 141 | 32 | 0.227 | 8 | 28 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.272 | 0.338 | OK |
| Oswald Peraza | 2B | 27 | 95 | 26 | 0.274 | 5 | 11 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.336 | 0.436 | OK |
| Zach Neto | SS | 43 | 171 | 37 | 0.216 | 6 | 18 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.195 | 0.262 | 0.309 | OK |
| Yoán Moncada | 3B | 29 | 96 | 17 | 0.177 | 3 | 8 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.279 | 0.284 | OK |
| Sebastián Rivero | C | 7 | 20 | 3 | 0.150 | 0 | 0 | 0.190 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.158 | 0.219 | 0.247 | OK |
| Bryce Teodosio | LF | 14 | 40 | 10 | 0.250 | 0 | 2 | 0.286 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.325 | 0.401 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Angel Martínez | CF | 31 | 119 | 33 | 0.277 | 6 | 17 | 0.323 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.231 | 0.293 | 0.386 | OK |
| José Ramírez | DH | 44 | 162 | 34 | 0.210 | 6 | 16 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.206 | 0.321 | 0.254 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 36 | 138 | 39 | 0.283 | 6 | 25 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.340 | 0.381 | OK |
| Rhys Hoskins | 1B | 27 | 86 | 17 | 0.198 | 3 | 13 | 0.343 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.148 | 0.317 | 0.352 | OK |
| David Fry | LF | 16 | 47 | 14 | 0.298 | 3 | 7 | 0.411 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.301 | 0.382 | 0.578 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 13 | 41 | 8 | 0.195 | 1 | 6 | 0.400 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.381 | 0.398 | OK |
| Daniel Schneemann | 3B | 31 | 106 | 29 | 0.274 | 4 | 15 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.203 | 0.335 | 0.271 | OK |
| Austin Hedges | C | 16 | 51 | 15 | 0.294 | 1 | 4 | 0.351 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.340 | 0.473 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 42 | 139 | 39 | 0.281 | 3 | 22 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.326 | 0.386 | 0.398 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Reid Detmers | Starter | 8 | 41.8 | 4.52 | 1.292 | 10.1 | 47 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 87 | 4.1 | 3 | 2 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 14 | 18.8 | 4.79 | 1.170 | 12.9 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 14 | 16.2 | 3.89 | 1.296 | 11.7 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 15.0 | 2 | 1.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 1.1 | 1 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Parker Messick | Starter | 8 | 45.6 | 2.37 | 1.009 | 10.1 | 51 | 4.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 80 | 4.1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 19 | 19.2 | 3.28 | 1.198 | 12.2 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever | 21 | 14.6 | 2.47 | 1.096 | 19.7 | 32 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Festa | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.7 | 6.31 | 1.529 | 11.5 | 20 | 0.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 0.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 11 | 7.7 | 7.01 | 1.948 | 9.4 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
CLE wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 41 | 152 | 47 | 0.309 | 4 | 14 | 0.397 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.215 | 0.271 | 0.455 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | DH | 32 | 115 | 36 | 0.313 | 9 | 35 | 0.371 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.338 | 0.452 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 40 | 161 | 54 | 0.335 | 4 | 17 | 0.365 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.338 | 0.352 | 0.468 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | LF | 19 | 71 | 17 | 0.239 | 1 | 3 | 0.333 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.261 | 0.335 | 0.422 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 1B | 36 | 117 | 26 | 0.222 | 3 | 12 | 0.333 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.189 | 0.311 | 0.283 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 39 | 148 | 27 | 0.182 | 2 | 12 | 0.307 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.227 | 0.356 | 0.401 | OK |
| Leo Jiménez | 3B | 9 | 23 | 5 | 0.217 | 0 | 1 | 0.321 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.300 | 0.287 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 29 | 92 | 18 | 0.196 | 1 | 15 | 0.250 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.144 | 0.252 | 0.203 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 7 | 22 | 4 | 0.182 | 0 | 1 | 0.217 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.201 | 0.257 | 0.340 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 45 | 38 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.316 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Byron Buxton | CF | 39 | 165 | 42 | 0.255 | 13 | 21 | 0.311 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.280 | 0.339 | 0.613 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | SS | 37 | 136 | 36 | 0.265 | 5 | 22 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.309 | 0.363 | 0.403 | OK |
| Austin Martin | LF | 26 | 89 | 29 | 0.326 | 1 | 7 | 0.450 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 0.366 | 0.373 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 38 | 144 | 30 | 0.208 | 3 | 19 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.169 | 0.191 | 0.209 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 1B | 26 | 90 | 20 | 0.222 | 3 | 9 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.255 | 0.340 | 0.397 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | 2B | 40 | 147 | 34 | 0.231 | 1 | 15 | 0.320 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.240 | 0.413 | 0.316 | OK |
| Victor Caratini | C | 27 | 93 | 18 | 0.194 | 1 | 12 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.155 | 0.233 | 0.194 | OK |
| Matt Wallner | RF | 32 | 115 | 20 | 0.174 | 4 | 10 | 0.269 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.262 | 0.362 | OK |
| Tristan Gray | 3B | 17 | 59 | 14 | 0.237 | 3 | 14 | 0.270 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.281 | 0.329 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0.235 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Max Meyer | Starter | 8 | 41.3 | 2.83 | 1.114 | 9.8 | 45 | 4.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 83 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 |
| Tyler Phillips | Middle Reliever | 12 | 22.5 | 1.20 | 1.378 | 9.6 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.6 | 3.70 | 1.575 | 9.9 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| John King | Middle Reliever | 19 | 12.7 | 0.71 | 0.709 | 10.6 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Bender | Middle Reliever | 17 | 11.4 | 5.53 | 1.667 | 13.4 | 17 | 0.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0.2 | 2 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Simeon Woods Richardson | Starter | 8 | 37.6 | 7.18 | 1.782 | 4.5 | 19 | 3.2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 110 | 3.2 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin Topa | Middle Reliever | 21 | 13.5 | 9.33 | 2.296 | 8.7 | 13 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Orze | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.2 | 5.00 | 1.728 | 8.9 | 16 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Rogers | Middle Reliever | 16 | 13.3 | 3.38 | 1.729 | 8.8 | 13 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luis García | Middle Reliever | 6 | 5.2 | 8.65 | 1.538 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever | 9 | 15.0 | 5.40 | 1.667 | 9.0 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
MIN wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| BAL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trent Grisham | CF | 35 | 126 | 22 | 0.175 | 4 | 21 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.344 | 0.459 | OK |
| Ben Rice | 1B | 34 | 125 | 38 | 0.304 | 12 | 27 | 0.413 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.227 | 0.285 | 0.441 | OK |
| Aaron Judge | DH | 43 | 153 | 42 | 0.275 | 16 | 30 | 0.413 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.303 | 0.448 | 0.600 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 41 | 148 | 41 | 0.277 | 5 | 27 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.368 | 0.338 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 39 | 147 | 30 | 0.204 | 4 | 14 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.185 | 0.245 | 0.280 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 29 | 97 | 17 | 0.175 | 2 | 9 | 0.231 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.135 | 0.157 | 0.219 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | RF | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0.091 | 0 | 1 | 0.167 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.266 | 0.308 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.310 | 0.392 | |
| J.C. Escarra | C | 11 | 39 | 8 | 0.205 | 0 | 6 | 0.262 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.286 | 0.356 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 0.235 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Taylor Ward | LF | 42 | 148 | 39 | 0.264 | 1 | 12 | 0.424 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.172 | 0.390 | 0.249 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 42 | 179 | 36 | 0.201 | 9 | 21 | 0.258 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.201 | 0.239 | 0.282 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 25 | 98 | 27 | 0.276 | 5 | 19 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.215 | 0.266 | 0.396 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 43 | 161 | 34 | 0.211 | 8 | 22 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.181 | 0.217 | 0.369 | OK |
| Tyler O'Neill | RF | 16 | 49 | 9 | 0.184 | 1 | 6 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.184 | 0.295 | 0.271 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | CF | 27 | 90 | 24 | 0.267 | 2 | 18 | 0.377 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.310 | 0.330 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | DH | 32 | 104 | 17 | 0.163 | 4 | 14 | 0.237 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.275 | 0.365 | OK |
| Weston Wilson | 3B | 9 | 20 | 5 | 0.250 | 0 | 0 | 0.423 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.349 | 0.313 | OK |
| Blaze Alexander | 2B | 26 | 83 | 17 | 0.205 | 0 | 2 | 0.267 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.337 | 0.338 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Max Fried | Starter | 9 | 57.5 | 2.97 | 0.974 | 7.5 | 48 | 4.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 94 | 4.1 | 6 | 3 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.6 | 3.80 | 1.446 | 11.9 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 20 | 11.3 | 3.98 | 2.124 | 19.1 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 20 | 14.5 | 1.24 | 0.966 | 4.3 | 7 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Headrick | Middle Reliever | 22 | 17.7 | 2.54 | 1.582 | 11.7 | 23 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Bradish | Starter | 8 | 40.3 | 4.91 | 1.687 | 10.0 | 45 | 3.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 85 | 3.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.6 | 0.51 | 0.455 | 11.2 | 22 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nunez | Middle Reliever | 18 | 18.6 | 2.90 | 1.075 | 10.6 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dietrich Enns | Middle Reliever | 8 | 8.8 | 2.05 | 1.591 | 11.2 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 8 | 5.5 | 13.09 | 2.909 | 11.5 | 7 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
NYY wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 42 | 157 | 36 | 0.229 | 17 | 28 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.295 | 0.351 | 0.839 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 41 | 150 | 41 | 0.273 | 10 | 24 | 0.368 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.344 | 0.502 | OK |
| Adolis García | RF | 40 | 149 | 34 | 0.228 | 3 | 12 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.240 | 0.286 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 35 | 134 | 47 | 0.351 | 4 | 21 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.403 | 0.440 | 0.476 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 37 | 135 | 25 | 0.185 | 3 | 20 | 0.252 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.299 | 0.361 | 0.575 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 32 | 119 | 26 | 0.218 | 3 | 15 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.247 | 0.291 | 0.458 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 24 | 85 | 20 | 0.235 | 1 | 8 | 0.290 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.203 | 0.226 | 0.282 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 34 | 114 | 32 | 0.281 | 1 | 9 | 0.354 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.341 | 0.420 | 0.546 | OK |
| Edmundo Sosa | SS | 16 | 55 | 13 | 0.236 | 1 | 8 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.277 | 0.327 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jarren Duran | CF | 34 | 141 | 27 | 0.191 | 4 | 18 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.260 | 0.330 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | DH | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0.500 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.298 | 0.346 | 0.469 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 40 | 150 | 44 | 0.293 | 6 | 18 | 0.374 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.313 | 0.390 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 38 | 135 | 35 | 0.259 | 8 | 23 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.208 | 0.338 | 0.400 | OK |
| Masataka Yoshida | LF | 18 | 62 | 16 | 0.258 | 0 | 4 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.312 | 0.288 | OK |
| Trevor Story | SS | 39 | 158 | 32 | 0.203 | 2 | 18 | 0.243 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.200 | 0.249 | 0.272 | OK |
| Marcelo Mayer | 2B | 31 | 102 | 22 | 0.216 | 1 | 8 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.178 | 0.252 | 0.222 | OK |
| Connor Wong | C | 15 | 46 | 12 | 0.261 | 0 | 7 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.299 | 0.299 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 37 | 129 | 22 | 0.171 | 1 | 13 | 0.252 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.167 | 0.223 | 0.237 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Painter | Starter | 7 | 31.5 | 7.14 | 1.778 | 8.6 | 30 | 4.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 93 | 4.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 11 | 10.2 | 1.76 | 1.176 | 14.1 | 16 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.5 | 4.65 | 1.419 | 10.5 | 18 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 19 | 10.5 | 6.86 | 2.476 | 16.3 | 19 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 16 | 13.6 | 1.99 | 1.176 | 7.3 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sonny Gray | Starter | 6 | 27.3 | 3.63 | 1.319 | 4.9 | 15 | 3.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 87 | 3.2 | 5 | 3 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 13 | 12.2 | 0.74 | 0.820 | 11.8 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever | 15 | 15.1 | 3.58 | 1.258 | 11.3 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 5 | 4.1 | 0.00 | 0.976 | 13.2 | 6 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Samaniego | Middle Reliever | 13 | 11.5 | 0.00 | 1.304 | 9.4 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Kelly | Middle Reliever | 15 | 12.9 | 4.19 | 1.395 | 9.1 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
PHI wins 4-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| MIL | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | x | 6 | 7 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 39 | 154 | 34 | 0.221 | 4 | 18 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.201 | 0.308 | 0.283 | OK |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 39 | 147 | 36 | 0.245 | 0 | 14 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.248 | 0.359 | 0.304 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 39 | 140 | 27 | 0.193 | 6 | 20 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.142 | 0.200 | 0.298 | OK |
| Miguel Andujar | DH | 28 | 104 | 31 | 0.298 | 3 | 12 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.226 | 0.243 | 0.434 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 39 | 145 | 38 | 0.262 | 6 | 21 | 0.335 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.268 | 0.329 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | LF | 30 | 103 | 21 | 0.204 | 3 | 9 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.184 | 0.297 | 0.352 | OK |
| Nick Castellanos | RF | 20 | 70 | 14 | 0.200 | 1 | 13 | 0.240 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.278 | 0.357 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 18 | 62 | 16 | 0.258 | 4 | 9 | 0.292 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.253 | 0.438 | OK |
| Rodolfo Durán | C | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.255 | 0.329 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 6 | 26 | 9 | 0.346 | 0 | 3 | 0.393 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.292 | 0.348 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 36 | 135 | 41 | 0.304 | 6 | 25 | 0.424 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.317 | 0.399 | 0.521 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 36 | 145 | 43 | 0.297 | 3 | 26 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.314 | 0.401 | 0.417 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | DH | 31 | 116 | 32 | 0.276 | 6 | 20 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.332 | 0.427 | 0.557 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B | 5 | 17 | 4 | 0.235 | 1 | 4 | 0.381 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.337 | 0.426 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 29 | 102 | 23 | 0.225 | 1 | 22 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.172 | 0.240 | 0.226 | OK |
| Luis Rengifo | 3B | 27 | 100 | 19 | 0.190 | 0 | 11 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.183 | 0.281 | 0.242 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 32 | 116 | 24 | 0.207 | 3 | 10 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.307 | 0.342 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | SS | 26 | 84 | 17 | 0.202 | 1 | 11 | 0.266 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.273 | 0.398 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael King | Starter | 8 | 45.2 | 2.79 | 1.062 | 9.0 | 45 | 3.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 70 | 3.2 | 1 | 3 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 18 | 18.2 | 0.99 | 0.659 | 18.8 | 38 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 13 | 11.3 | 1.59 | 0.885 | 4.0 | 5 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.5 | 6.69 | 1.543 | 13.4 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | Middle Reliever | 11 | 9.7 | 4.64 | 1.237 | 14.8 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Misiorowski | Starter | 8 | 43.3 | 2.49 | 0.970 | 14.5 | 70 | 4.1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 79 | 4.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.7 | 3.94 | 1.168 | 10.5 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 19 | 23.2 | 2.33 | 1.466 | 15.9 | 41 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 15 | 15.0 | 3.60 | 1.200 | 11.4 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| DL Hall | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.2 | 2.22 | 1.481 | 11.7 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
MIL wins 6-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| HOU | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 34 | 119 | 24 | 0.202 | 4 | 13 | 0.362 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.194 | 0.330 | 0.288 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 43 | 171 | 46 | 0.269 | 7 | 19 | 0.332 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.298 | 0.339 | 0.558 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 40 | 158 | 39 | 0.247 | 5 | 20 | 0.306 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.308 | 0.348 | 0.460 | OK |
| Cal Raleigh | C | 39 | 155 | 25 | 0.161 | 7 | 17 | 0.246 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.117 | 0.196 | 0.166 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 43 | 155 | 47 | 0.303 | 4 | 16 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.415 | 0.484 | 0.607 | OK |
| Luke Raley | RF | 30 | 97 | 25 | 0.258 | 7 | 21 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.324 | 0.545 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 27 | 77 | 21 | 0.273 | 4 | 17 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.254 | 0.323 | 0.452 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 43 | 150 | 38 | 0.253 | 3 | 22 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.156 | 0.282 | 0.216 | OK |
| Leo Rivas | 3B | 29 | 87 | 12 | 0.138 | 0 | 5 | 0.276 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.135 | 0.278 | 0.215 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 39 | 152 | 39 | 0.257 | 3 | 9 | 0.339 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.303 | 0.359 | 0.389 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 43 | 159 | 49 | 0.308 | 13 | 29 | 0.413 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.331 | 0.425 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 37 | 135 | 36 | 0.267 | 3 | 17 | 0.357 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.254 | 0.320 | 0.342 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 42 | 154 | 43 | 0.279 | 9 | 28 | 0.349 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.171 | 0.229 | 0.314 | OK |
| Zach Dezenzo | LF | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0.222 | 1 | 2 | 0.300 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.239 | 0.304 | 0.463 | OK |
| Braden Shewmake | SS | 7 | 25 | 8 | 0.320 | 2 | 3 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.310 | 0.344 | 0.541 | OK |
| Brice Matthews | CF | 26 | 86 | 17 | 0.198 | 4 | 12 | 0.247 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.173 | 0.211 | 0.339 | OK |
| Zach Cole | RF | 6 | 18 | 3 | 0.167 | 1 | 2 | 0.167 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.207 | 0.246 | 0.336 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 19 | 65 | 19 | 0.292 | 3 | 12 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.206 | 0.256 | 0.364 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 38 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryce Miller | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 78 | 3.2 | 2 | 2 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.3 | 5.88 | 1.438 | 15.3 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.4 | 2.74 | 1.463 | 9.3 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cooper Criswell | Middle Reliever | 14 | 17.1 | 2.11 | 0.819 | 8.4 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Simpson | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.0 | 9.00 | 1.000 | 13.5 | 3 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Alex Hoppe | Middle Reliever | 5 | 6.2 | 7.26 | 1.452 | 14.5 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Starter | 7 | 33.3 | 7.57 | 1.532 | 10.0 | 37 | 3.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 88 | 3.2 | 3 | 3 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 14 | 14.8 | 3.65 | 1.486 | 9.1 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever | 14 | 11.5 | 10.17 | 2.522 | 15.7 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever | 15 | 14.6 | 4.93 | 1.301 | 8.6 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| AJ Blubaugh | Middle Reliever | 17 | 24.6 | 5.49 | 1.585 | 8.0 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
SEA wins 6-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 41 | 157 | 43 | 0.274 | 2 | 13 | 0.320 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.266 | 0.304 | 0.353 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 39 | 155 | 47 | 0.303 | 0 | 14 | 0.337 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.255 | 0.320 | 0.319 | OK |
| Heliot Ramos | LF | 39 | 152 | 42 | 0.276 | 4 | 19 | 0.311 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.334 | 0.378 | 0.585 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 42 | 158 | 38 | 0.241 | 5 | 18 | 0.291 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.331 | 0.404 | 0.663 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 5 | 16 | 2 | 0.125 | 1 | 1 | 0.176 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.201 | 0.259 | 0.365 | OK |
| Willy Adames | SS | 41 | 167 | 37 | 0.222 | 3 | 11 | 0.253 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.309 | 0.324 | 0.384 | OK |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 40 | 153 | 35 | 0.229 | 1 | 14 | 0.310 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.174 | 0.265 | 0.274 | OK |
| Drew Gilbert | CF | 19 | 61 | 15 | 0.246 | 2 | 7 | 0.313 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.208 | 0.296 | 0.298 | OK |
| Jesus Rodriguez | C | 6 | 21 | 6 | 0.286 | 1 | 4 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.280 | 0.343 | 0.436 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 44 | 39 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 0.308 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Mookie Betts | SS | 9 | 37 | 6 | 0.162 | 2 | 7 | 0.225 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.241 | 0.342 | OK |
| Will Smith | C | 29 | 113 | 30 | 0.265 | 3 | 17 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.296 | 0.292 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 40 | 156 | 43 | 0.276 | 4 | 20 | 0.347 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.362 | 0.473 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 41 | 153 | 49 | 0.320 | 9 | 35 | 0.365 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.253 | 0.317 | 0.483 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 40 | 149 | 38 | 0.255 | 4 | 19 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.444 | 0.460 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | DH | 37 | 133 | 32 | 0.241 | 4 | 17 | 0.320 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.349 | 0.328 | OK |
| Miguel Rojas | 2B | 13 | 44 | 13 | 0.295 | 1 | 4 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.250 | 0.341 | OK |
| Alex Call | LF | 8 | 29 | 8 | 0.276 | 0 | 3 | 0.417 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.330 | 0.301 | OK |
| Santiago Espinal | 3B | 7 | 22 | 4 | 0.182 | 0 | 2 | 0.182 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.220 | 0.255 | 0.306 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Robbie Ray | Starter | 8 | 44.5 | 2.83 | 1.124 | 9.5 | 47 | 2.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 92 | 2.2 | 3 | 2 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.0 | 1.59 | 1.235 | 10.1 | 19 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.4 | 2.59 | 0.862 | 7.8 | 15 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Joel Peguero | Middle Reliever | 4 | 3.3 | 2.73 | 0.909 | 2.7 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Gage | Middle Reliever | 21 | 13.1 | 1.37 | 1.450 | 8.2 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hentges | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 0.00 | 3.636 | 16.4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shohei Ohtani | Starter | 6 | 37.0 | 0.97 | 0.811 | 10.2 | 42 | 2.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 74 | 2.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.4 | 1.75 | 0.649 | 9.4 | 16 | 1.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 1.2 | 1 | 3 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 17 | 11.7 | 3.85 | 1.197 | 13.1 | 17 | 1.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Hurt | Middle Reliever | 10 | 10.0 | 0.90 | 0.600 | 12.6 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jack Dreyer | Middle Reliever | 19 | 18.8 | 2.39 | 1.064 | 10.5 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Blake Treinen | Middle Reliever | 15 | 10.8 | 2.50 | 1.389 | 10.0 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
SF wins 7-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 14 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 40 | 155 | 38 | 0.245 | 8 | 22 | 0.360 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.343 | 0.375 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 41 | 150 | 40 | 0.267 | 4 | 18 | 0.406 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.331 | 0.388 | 0.426 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 39 | 158 | 42 | 0.266 | 6 | 30 | 0.335 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.290 | 0.425 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 39 | 149 | 45 | 0.302 | 11 | 30 | 0.382 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.385 | 0.546 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 35 | 128 | 28 | 0.219 | 4 | 21 | 0.290 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.297 | 0.314 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 35 | 136 | 34 | 0.250 | 1 | 16 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.260 | 0.317 | OK |
| Nathan Church | LF | 31 | 115 | 28 | 0.243 | 4 | 14 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.239 | 0.276 | 0.342 | OK |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 26 | 88 | 18 | 0.205 | 3 | 8 | 0.253 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.127 | 0.176 | 0.213 | OK |
| Victor Scott II | CF | 33 | 96 | 18 | 0.188 | 1 | 5 | 0.255 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.309 | 0.329 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0.121 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shea Langeliers | DH | 37 | 153 | 52 | 0.340 | 12 | 25 | 0.396 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.366 | 0.425 | 0.704 | OK |
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 40 | 146 | 38 | 0.260 | 5 | 21 | 0.416 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.291 | 0.401 | 0.452 | OK |
| Colby Thomas | RF | 6 | 18 | 5 | 0.278 | 1 | 2 | 0.350 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.260 | 0.332 | 0.434 | OK |
| Brent Rooker | LF | 24 | 91 | 17 | 0.187 | 5 | 18 | 0.283 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.265 | 0.376 | 0.521 | OK |
| Justyn-Henry Malloy | CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.232 | 0.301 | 0.374 | |
| Jonah Heim | C | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.225 | 0.286 | 0.415 | |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 18 | 63 | 16 | 0.254 | 3 | 11 | 0.309 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.262 | 0.328 | 0.481 | OK |
| Darell Hernaiz | SS | 16 | 50 | 10 | 0.200 | 1 | 5 | 0.310 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.296 | 0.255 | OK |
| Michael Stefanic | 2B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.317 | 0.376 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 46 | 44 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 0.318 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Matthew Liberatore | Starter | 8 | 41.3 | 4.14 | 1.453 | 6.3 | 29 | 4.1 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 110 | 4.1 | 5 | 3 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.6 | 2.90 | 1.022 | 11.1 | 23 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 20 | 16.6 | 3.80 | 1.325 | 9.8 | 18 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.2 | 4.14 | 1.447 | 8.9 | 15 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever | 20 | 15.2 | 7.11 | 2.105 | 14.2 | 24 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 0.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Svanson | Reliever | 18 | 17.1 | 11.05 | 2.339 | 10.0 | 19 | 1.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 26 | - | - | - |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| J.T. Ginn | Starter | 9 | 35.7 | 3.78 | 1.176 | 7.8 | 31 | 4.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 83 | 4.1 | 7 | 2 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 22 | 15.3 | 3.53 | 2.222 | 12.9 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Joel Kuhnel | Middle Reliever | 15 | 12.3 | 3.66 | 1.301 | 4.4 | 6 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.3 | 1.66 | 0.798 | 9.9 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.1 | 9.57 | 2.128 | 11.5 | 18 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0.1 | 3 | 1 |
| Justin Sterner | Middle Reliever | 19 | 16.4 | 4.94 | 1.646 | 12.1 | 22 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
OAK wins 6-3 (Extra Innings - 10)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| TOR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 37 | 150 | 45 | 0.300 | 0 | 7 | 0.327 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.310 | 0.324 | 0.340 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 40 | 156 | 40 | 0.256 | 11 | 19 | 0.343 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.600 | 0.257 | 0.344 | 0.472 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 38 | 141 | 40 | 0.284 | 8 | 33 | 0.376 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.333 | 0.431 | 0.494 | OK |
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 39 | 150 | 44 | 0.293 | 5 | 23 | 0.374 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.260 | 0.297 | OK |
| Jake Fraley | RF | 22 | 69 | 18 | 0.261 | 2 | 5 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.311 | 0.417 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 19 | 50 | 11 | 0.220 | 1 | 7 | 0.365 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.211 | 0.303 | 0.279 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 32 | 120 | 16 | 0.133 | 2 | 13 | 0.186 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.155 | 0.182 | 0.197 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 15 | 36 | 10 | 0.278 | 0 | 3 | 0.381 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.287 | 0.366 | 0.385 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 29 | 88 | 18 | 0.205 | 0 | 8 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.329 | 0.339 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0.308 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| George Springer | DH | 23 | 89 | 18 | 0.202 | 2 | 7 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.230 | 0.272 | 0.308 | OK |
| Yohendrick Pinango | LF | 9 | 27 | 10 | 0.370 | 0 | 4 | 0.414 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.329 | 0.378 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 41 | 153 | 45 | 0.294 | 2 | 18 | 0.377 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.164 | 0.239 | 0.200 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 41 | 153 | 37 | 0.242 | 10 | 26 | 0.326 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.242 | 0.319 | 0.407 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 36 | 136 | 33 | 0.243 | 4 | 9 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.323 | 0.336 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | RF | 30 | 109 | 28 | 0.257 | 5 | 16 | 0.300 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.300 | 0.392 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 41 | 166 | 49 | 0.295 | 2 | 12 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.322 | 0.337 | 0.443 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 36 | 133 | 34 | 0.256 | 5 | 23 | 0.279 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.234 | 0.440 | OK |
| Tyler Heineman | C | 18 | 53 | 9 | 0.170 | 0 | 2 | 0.214 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.144 | 0.196 | 0.196 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Griffin Jax | Starter | 13 | 15.2 | 4.14 | 1.447 | 10.1 | 17 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 82 | 4.1 | 3 | 2 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.2 | 2.22 | 0.864 | 10.6 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cole Sulser | Middle Reliever | 16 | 19.5 | 2.77 | 1.385 | 7.4 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | Middle Reliever | 8 | 6.2 | 4.35 | 1.774 | 13.1 | 9 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.2 | 3.33 | 0.864 | 8.3 | 15 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dylan Cease | Starter | 8 | 44.4 | 2.64 | 1.261 | 13.4 | 66 | 3.2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 82 | 3.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 20 | 18.1 | 0.50 | 1.271 | 14.9 | 30 | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.5 | 2.06 | 1.143 | 5.7 | 11 | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Middle Reliever | 19 | 16.5 | 6.00 | 1.879 | 17.5 | 32 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Braydon Fisher | Middle Reliever | 21 | 18.7 | 3.85 | 1.337 | 9.6 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Fluharty | Middle Reliever | 20 | 10.7 | 5.89 | 1.776 | 16.0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
TB wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | LF | 42 | 160 | 39 | 0.244 | 12 | 29 | 0.392 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.263 | 0.389 | 0.609 | OK |
| Curtis Mead | 1B | 16 | 59 | 16 | 0.271 | 3 | 11 | 0.377 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.272 | 0.379 | 0.476 | OK |
| Brady House | 3B | 33 | 136 | 30 | 0.221 | 6 | 20 | 0.279 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.286 | 0.432 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 40 | 146 | 43 | 0.295 | 9 | 36 | 0.393 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.338 | 0.421 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 36 | 137 | 29 | 0.212 | 3 | 16 | 0.260 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.164 | 0.248 | 0.291 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | DH | 41 | 163 | 43 | 0.264 | 5 | 19 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.328 | 0.376 | 0.625 | OK |
| Joey Wiemer | RF | 16 | 55 | 16 | 0.291 | 2 | 6 | 0.381 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.214 | 0.288 | 0.337 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | 2B | 36 | 117 | 25 | 0.214 | 0 | 14 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.340 | 0.264 | OK |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 22 | 74 | 15 | 0.203 | 2 | 11 | 0.221 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.232 | 0.252 | 0.476 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 37 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Will Benson | RF | 20 | 55 | 9 | 0.164 | 1 | 2 | 0.292 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.355 | 0.302 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 42 | 168 | 49 | 0.292 | 10 | 29 | 0.355 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.366 | 0.396 | 0.483 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 3B | 42 | 160 | 41 | 0.256 | 10 | 30 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.272 | 0.316 | 0.462 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 14 | 45 | 13 | 0.289 | 4 | 11 | 0.429 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.266 | 0.394 | 0.502 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | 1B | 39 | 138 | 33 | 0.239 | 7 | 13 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.288 | 0.386 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | DH | 22 | 75 | 20 | 0.267 | 6 | 15 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.240 | 0.314 | 0.442 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 30 | 100 | 17 | 0.170 | 2 | 7 | 0.270 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.170 | 0.241 | 0.230 | OK |
| TJ Friedl | CF | 35 | 137 | 26 | 0.190 | 2 | 7 | 0.270 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.167 | 0.240 | 0.246 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 38 | 145 | 30 | 0.207 | 3 | 14 | 0.311 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.303 | 0.279 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jake Irvin | Starter | 8 | 39.2 | 5.28 | 1.378 | 9.4 | 41 | 3.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 93 | 3.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Gus Varland | Middle Reliever | 16 | 12.2 | 5.90 | 1.885 | 12.5 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 2.1 | 1 | 0 |
| PJ Poulin | Middle Reliever | 20 | 15.5 | 4.06 | 1.677 | 8.1 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 13 | 25.2 | 3.57 | 1.270 | 7.5 | 21 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Richard Lovelady | Middle Reliever | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15 | 2.051 | 12.7 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nick Lodolo | Starter | 1 | 5.1 | 7.06 | 1.176 | 3.5 | 2 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 86 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Graham Ashcraft | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.5 | 1.85 | 1.282 | 11.1 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.3 | 3.53 | 1.373 | 10.0 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Pierce Johnson | Middle Reliever | 19 | 13.5 | 4.67 | 1.630 | 10.0 | 15 | 1.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
WAS wins 5-3