MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

May 13, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ TEX4 - 34 - 3ARI wins 4-351%enhanced_ml
CHC @ ATL4 - 53 - 6ATL wins 6-351%enhanced_ml
COL @ PIT2 - 63 - 5PIT wins 5-362%enhanced_ml
DET @ NYM2 - 42 - 4NYM wins 4-261%enhanced_ml
KC @ CHW4 - 56 - 4KC wins 6-453%enhanced_ml
LAA @ CLE3 - 42 - 5CLE wins 5-254%enhanced_ml
MIA @ MIN4 - 53 - 5MIN wins 5-351%enhanced_ml
NYY @ BAL5 - 44 - 3NYY wins 4-354%enhanced_ml
PHI @ BOS4 - 24 - 1PHI wins 4-151%enhanced_ml
SD @ MIL1 - 52 - 6MIL wins 6-262%enhanced_ml
SEA @ HOU5 - 46 - 3SEA wins 6-354%enhanced_ml
SF @ LAD6 - 27 - 3SF wins 7-351%enhanced_ml
STL @ OAK3 - 53 - 6OAK wins 6-3 (Extra Innings - 10)53%enhanced_ml
TB @ TOR4 - 34 - 2TB wins 4-254%enhanced_ml
WAS @ CIN6 - 25 - 3WAS wins 5-361%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers

ARI 20-21 (4.24 RPG / 4.83 RA)
4 - 3
TEX 20-22 (3.71 RPG / 3.74 RA)
ARI WINS Target: ARI 4 - 3 TEX Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ARI01001101049
TEX02000010037

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.9
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff3
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.9
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-12
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 3715332 0.209 5150.258 55000 01 0.000 0.170 0.216 0.344 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 3913736 0.263 5200.364 54000 13 0.000 0.238 0.355 0.392 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 3813029 0.223 2120.335 43000 10 0.000 0.185 0.260 0.277 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 3813035 0.269 6180.329 44000 01 0.000 0.247 0.344 0.433 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 3213042 0.323 7230.343 44211 00 0.500 0.221 0.255 0.369 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 176212 0.194 050.275 44110 01 0.250 0.183 0.252 0.240 OK
Adrian Del CastilloDH 228115 0.185 2130.230 44312 00 0.750 0.176 0.245 0.288 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 186412 0.188 170.250 44211 00 0.500 0.134 0.215 0.229 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 4133 0.231 030.231 44100 00 0.250 0.240 0.283 0.392 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38369 44 26 0.250

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 318718 0.207 270.308 54211 10 0.500 0.264 0.348 0.482 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 4015645 0.288 4120.367 44011 01 0.000 0.258 0.342 0.366 OK
Corey SeagerSS 4115228 0.184 7200.292 43000 12 0.000 0.098 0.195 0.174 OK
Josh Jung3B 3814647 0.322 5200.371 44000 02 0.000 0.319 0.342 0.459 OK
Evan CarterCF 3711821 0.178 5130.300 44000 02 0.000 0.134 0.280 0.329 OK
Ezequiel Duran2B 289227 0.293 3130.371 43000 10 0.000 0.283 0.345 0.476 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 12318 0.258 050.410 44200 02 0.500 0.282 0.370 0.358 OK
Jake Burger1B 3915333 0.216 5200.253 44000 01 0.000 0.250 0.293 0.328 OK
Danny JansenC 258116 0.198 280.293 44311 01 0.750 0.156 0.308 0.262 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 33 311 0.206

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryne NelsonStarter 835.26.14 1.3648.935 4.24223894 4.2 8 2
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 0.22110019 0.2 0 1
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.10000012 1.1 0 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 1.01000117 1.0 1 0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kumar RockerStarter 731.45.16 1.5617.727 4.27331393 4.2 3 3
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 1720.50.88 0.4397.517 1.20000112 1.2 1 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1618.31.97 0.8204.49 1.22111128 1.2 1 1
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 1813.95.18 1.65511.718 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

ARI wins 4-3


Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves

CHC 27-15 (5.17 RPG / 4.12 RA)
3 - 6
ATL 29-13 (5.55 RPG / 3.4 RA)
ATL WINS Target: CHC 4 - 5 ATL Confidence: 51.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CHC00300000036
ATL10000320x67

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak3L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff24
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 4016444 0.268 4280.346 54100 00 0.250 0.197 0.273 0.303 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 299122 0.242 6180.304 54200 10 0.500 0.107 0.173 0.198 OK
Alex Bregman3B 4016137 0.230 4130.324 55211 01 0.400 0.205 0.286 0.343 OK
Ian HappLF 4014934 0.228 9180.365 43111 10 0.333 0.169 0.321 0.310 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 269728 0.289 7160.402 43000 11 0.000 0.215 0.351 0.433 OK
Michael Busch1B 4014834 0.230 3220.348 42000 22 0.000 0.283 0.430 0.430 OK
Carson KellyC 269626 0.271 190.358 43011 02 0.000 0.171 0.251 0.214 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 4115237 0.243 4170.311 44000 00 0.000 0.220 0.299 0.351 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 4013626 0.191 6230.302 44000 01 0.000 0.160 0.222 0.243 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39326 33 57 0.188

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Mauricio DubónLF 4014839 0.264 2230.323 44000 01 0.000 0.241 0.300 0.336 OK
Drake BaldwinDH 4216950 0.296 10320.380 43112 11 0.333 0.248 0.360 0.477 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 4216349 0.301 8250.354 44110 01 0.250 0.194 0.268 0.288 OK
Matt Olson1B 4216348 0.294 14370.374 43211 01 0.667 0.249 0.316 0.523 OK
Austin Riley3B 4115735 0.223 6250.293 44113 00 0.250 0.289 0.331 0.498 OK
Michael Harris IICF 3312738 0.299 6190.323 44110 02 0.250 0.289 0.310 0.370 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 130 0.000 000.250 44000 02 0.000 0.215 0.299 0.348
Sandy LeónC 000 0.000 000.000 33000 01 0.000 0.232 0.296 0.380
José AzocarRF 120 0.000 000.000 32110 10 0.500 0.229 0.286 0.370
TEAM TOTALS 34317 66 29 0.226

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shota ImanagaStarter 847.12.29 0.93410.153 3.22112692 3.2 6 1
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 86.32.86 1.27010.07 2.13330227 2.1 2 3
Phil MatonMiddle Reliever 117.89.23 1.92315.013 1.02220019 1.0 0 2
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 1815.04.20 1.73311.419 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
JR RitchieStarter 317.13.68 1.5206.813 3.25332487 3.2 4 3
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1111.20.00 0.62512.115 1.11002130 1.1 1 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 1716.30.55 0.9208.816 1.00000012 1.0 0 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 2018.50.97 0.48611.223 1.0000009 1.0 0 0
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 1916.43.84 1.40210.419 0.10000111 0.1 1 0
Aaron BummerMiddle Reliever 1710.26.18 1.9619.711 1.20001118 1.2 1 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-3


Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

COL 16-26 (4.19 RPG / 5.07 RA)
3 - 5
PIT 23-19 (4.98 RPG / 4.19 RA)
PIT WINS Target: COL 2 - 6 PIT Confidence: 62.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
COL01000001137
PIT00020300x57

COL Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed6.9
Run Diff-30
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff21
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Edouard Julien2B 289827 0.276 2120.366 43000 12 0.000 0.232 0.328 0.324 OK
Mickey MoniakCF 3011536 0.313 11200.360 44200 00 0.500 0.233 0.286 0.412 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 197318 0.247 290.329 44000 00 0.000 0.242 0.305 0.408 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 3814538 0.262 4200.329 44100 00 0.250 0.276 0.346 0.422 OK
Troy JohnstonDH 3211738 0.325 2160.383 44111 02 0.250 0.362 0.451 0.492 OK
Kyle Karros3B 3611024 0.218 190.333 43011 02 0.000 0.244 0.316 0.370 OK
Jake McCarthyLF 267721 0.273 2130.333 44100 01 0.250 0.294 0.348 0.595 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 3713827 0.196 1100.243 44100 00 0.250 0.192 0.235 0.231 OK
Brett SullivanC 175913 0.220 060.270 33111 01 0.333 0.173 0.261 0.252 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35337 33 18 0.212

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 3916845 0.268 10290.332 44000 02 0.000 0.317 0.392 0.510 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 3412832 0.250 3180.317 44210 00 0.500 0.223 0.291 0.389 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 4014236 0.254 4240.402 43110 10 0.333 0.257 0.396 0.375 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 3313225 0.189 4140.272 44212 02 0.500 0.226 0.348 0.410 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 3814541 0.283 5260.361 43000 11 0.000 0.212 0.282 0.266 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 3513845 0.326 0190.384 44212 00 0.500 0.319 0.414 0.405 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 3513636 0.265 10280.369 43000 10 0.000 0.323 0.409 0.671 OK
Jared Triolo1B 9346 0.176 010.243 32011 00 0.000 0.227 0.283 0.327 OK
Henry DavisC 258313 0.157 270.263 33000 02 0.000 0.177 0.299 0.390 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34307 55 37 0.233

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jose QuintanaStarter 628.64.09 1.3994.414 4.14220369 4.1 3 2
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 1515.47.01 2.0788.214 1.22333138 1.2 1 3
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1121.31.27 0.9399.322 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 1617.05.29 1.82413.225 1.01000220 1.0 2 0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mitch KellerStarter 847.02.87 1.0436.735 5.24110697 5.2 6 1
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2120.41.76 0.73511.526 1.10000112 1.1 1 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 1816.43.84 1.4025.510 0.22111025 0.2 0 1
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 1613.13.44 1.52715.823 1.11110113 1.1 1 1

Game Summary

PIT wins 5-3


Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets

DET 19-23 (4.21 RPG / 4.31 RA)
2 - 4
NYM 16-25 (3.63 RPG / 4.2 RA)
NYM WINS Target: DET 2 - 4 NYM Confidence: 61.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
DET00010010029
NYM00030001x46

DET Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle3B 3914945 0.302 2160.406 55100 02 0.200 0.236 0.377 0.314 OK
Dillon DinglerC 3212229 0.238 7260.311 54000 11 0.000 0.173 0.239 0.375 OK
Colt KeithDH 289829 0.296 040.337 55100 00 0.200 0.276 0.342 0.354 OK
Riley GreeneLF 4114847 0.318 4200.416 44000 01 0.000 0.406 0.481 0.584 OK
Matt VierlingCF 258919 0.213 1140.283 44100 02 0.250 0.206 0.290 0.346 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 207211 0.153 050.197 43111 10 0.333 0.231 0.264 0.306 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 3913428 0.209 6160.323 44000 02 0.000 0.179 0.265 0.320 OK
Zach McKinstry2B 17549 0.167 150.250 44200 01 0.500 0.148 0.256 0.218 OK
Zack ShortSS 360 0.000 000.333 43311 10 1.000 0.188 0.312 0.303
TEAM TOTALS 39369 22 39 0.250

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 3311525 0.217 3120.286 42011 21 0.000 0.262 0.318 0.394 OK
Bo BichetteSS 4116637 0.223 2170.272 44100 01 0.250 0.156 0.264 0.189 OK
Juan SotoDH 259525 0.263 4110.360 43100 10 0.333 0.193 0.275 0.328 OK
Mark Vientos1B 3010825 0.231 5170.276 44000 01 0.000 0.240 0.265 0.450 OK
Marcus Semien2B 4114733 0.224 2130.281 44211 00 0.500 0.215 0.298 0.284 OK
Brett Baty3B 3110925 0.229 1120.286 44111 00 0.250 0.235 0.308 0.334 OK
Tyrone TaylorLF 185212 0.231 150.259 44000 02 0.000 0.220 0.251 0.333 OK
A.J. EwingCF 121 0.500 020.800 32000 11 0.000 0.281 0.376 0.552 OK
Luis TorrensC 13407 0.175 040.214 33111 00 0.333 0.204 0.269 0.328 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34306 44 46 0.200

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Framber ValdezStarter 843.14.59 1.4157.335 3.24334186 3.2 1 3
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 118.43.21 1.31012.912 1.10000012 1.1 0 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 1817.70.51 1.4126.613 0.20000215 0.2 2 0
Burch SmithMiddle Reliever 911.33.98 1.68113.517 1.11000115 1.1 1 0
Brant HurterMiddle Reliever 1717.72.03 1.0177.615 1.01110219 1.0 2 1

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Christian ScottStarter 310.33.50 1.26213.115 4.25111683 4.2 6 1
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 1411.54.70 1.47816.421 1.11000117 1.1 1 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 1614.74.90 1.2939.816 0.22111029 0.2 0 1
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 1713.91.29 1.07912.319 1.10001219 1.1 2 0
Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever 1714.73.06 1.3618.614 1.01000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 4-2


Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox

KC 19-23 (4.14 RPG / 4.5 RA)
6 - 4
CHW 20-21 (4.32 RPG / 4.63 RA)
KC WINS Target: KC 4 - 5 CHW Confidence: 53.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
KC000022020611
CHW01000300047

KC Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 3915544 0.284 3170.347 55312 01 0.600 0.330 0.387 0.465 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 4216751 0.305 6200.372 54111 10 0.250 0.388 0.435 0.736 OK
Lane ThomasCF 206312 0.190 140.329 54000 10 0.000 0.180 0.328 0.254 OK
Salvador PerezDH 4015731 0.197 6180.238 55000 01 0.000 0.169 0.232 0.321 OK
Nick Loftin2B 11357 0.200 060.317 55110 00 0.200 0.184 0.292 0.261 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 3914831 0.209 5190.292 55210 02 0.400 0.274 0.332 0.409 OK
Starling MarteRF 103311 0.333 020.361 43111 11 0.333 0.334 0.378 0.444 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 3210926 0.239 3130.349 43212 10 0.667 0.232 0.315 0.361 OK
Elias DíazC 5164 0.250 130.294 44100 01 0.250 0.246 0.301 0.455 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423811 66 46 0.289

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 217219 0.264 190.372 55112 00 0.200 0.289 0.367 0.383 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 3914232 0.225 15290.362 54000 10 0.000 0.168 0.300 0.395 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 3813933 0.237 9230.372 53000 20 0.000 0.309 0.410 0.621 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 3914531 0.214 10280.317 43000 10 0.000 0.179 0.256 0.414 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 3814641 0.281 380.350 44211 02 0.500 0.311 0.355 0.529 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 2810626 0.245 2140.281 44210 00 0.500 0.318 0.361 0.378 OK
Jarred KelenicRF 8236 0.261 010.320 44000 01 0.000 0.218 0.295 0.301 OK
Tristan PetersCF 288321 0.253 050.311 43111 10 0.333 0.230 0.292 0.340 OK
Drew RomoC 9275 0.185 450.371 44100 00 0.250 0.190 0.301 0.437 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39347 44 53 0.206

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Seth LugoStarter 846.53.29 1.3988.142 3.13113280 3.1 2 1
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 1715.43.51 1.4948.214 1.10001014 1.1 0 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 1615.24.14 1.2509.516 1.14330030 1.1 0 3
Nick MearsMiddle Reliever 1712.83.52 1.4067.711 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 1715.72.29 0.82813.223 0.10000011 0.1 0 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever 1713.24.09 1.7424.16 1.20000011 1.2 0 0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Noah SchultzStarter 524.34.81 1.3588.523 4.24223488 4.2 4 2
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 1.15220130 1.1 1 2
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 0.10000113 0.1 1 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 1.22221020 1.2 0 2
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 129.81.84 1.93913.815 1.00000011 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

KC wins 6-4


Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians

LAA 16-28 (4.16 RPG / 4.89 RA)
2 - 5
CLE 24-21 (4.16 RPG / 4.07 RA)
CLE WINS Target: LAA 3 - 4 CLE Confidence: 53.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAA00000002023
CLE00101003x58

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.8
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-18
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Vaughn Grissom1B 176418 0.281 2100.347 44000 01 0.000 0.230 0.294 0.418 OK
Mike TroutCF 4214938 0.255 11230.419 42112 21 0.500 0.248 0.363 0.369 OK
Jo AdellRF 4316746 0.275 6250.317 44110 01 0.250 0.357 0.399 0.698 OK
Jorge SolerDH 3914132 0.227 8280.325 43000 10 0.000 0.195 0.272 0.338 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 279526 0.274 5110.343 44000 01 0.000 0.267 0.336 0.436 OK
Zach NetoSS 4317137 0.216 6180.322 44100 02 0.250 0.195 0.262 0.309 OK
Yoán Moncada3B 299617 0.177 380.295 44000 01 0.000 0.234 0.279 0.284 OK
Sebastián RiveroC 7203 0.150 000.190 33000 00 0.000 0.158 0.219 0.247 OK
Bryce TeodosioLF 144010 0.250 020.286 32000 12 0.000 0.277 0.325 0.401 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34303 22 49 0.100

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Angel MartínezCF 3111933 0.277 6170.323 55111 02 0.200 0.231 0.293 0.386 OK
José RamírezDH 4416234 0.210 6160.337 44100 00 0.250 0.206 0.321 0.254 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 3613839 0.283 6250.367 44111 00 0.250 0.249 0.340 0.381 OK
Rhys Hoskins1B 278617 0.198 3130.343 43110 11 0.333 0.148 0.317 0.352 OK
David FryLF 164714 0.298 370.411 44100 01 0.250 0.301 0.382 0.578 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 13418 0.195 160.400 42000 20 0.000 0.226 0.381 0.398 OK
Daniel Schneemann3B 3110629 0.274 4150.358 43113 10 0.333 0.203 0.335 0.271 OK
Austin HedgesC 165115 0.294 140.351 43000 10 0.000 0.274 0.340 0.473 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 4213939 0.281 3220.357 44210 00 0.500 0.326 0.386 0.398 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37328 55 54 0.250

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Reid DetmersStarter 841.84.52 1.29210.147 4.14223387 4.1 3 2
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 1418.84.79 1.17012.927 1.00001019 1.0 0 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 1416.23.89 1.29611.721 1.11000013 1.1 0 0
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.33315.02 1.13331137 1.1 1 3

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 845.62.37 1.00910.151 4.11003580 4.1 5 0
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 1919.23.28 1.19812.226 1.11000118 1.1 1 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever 2114.62.47 1.09619.732 1.10000216 1.1 2 0
Matt FestaMiddle Reliever 1815.76.31 1.52911.520 0.21221020 0.2 0 2
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 117.77.01 1.9489.48 1.10000113 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-2


Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins

MIA 19-23 (4.19 RPG / 4.33 RA)
3 - 5
MIN 19-23 (4.69 RPG / 4.9 RA)
MIN WINS Target: MIA 4 - 5 MIN Confidence: 51.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIA000200001312
MIN10001000358

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed5.7
Run Diff-14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak3W

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 4115247 0.309 4140.397 54100 11 0.250 0.215 0.271 0.455 OK
Liam HicksDH 3211536 0.313 9350.371 54111 10 0.250 0.239 0.338 0.452 OK
Otto LopezSS 4016154 0.335 4170.365 53211 11 0.667 0.338 0.352 0.468 OK
Kyle StowersLF 197117 0.239 130.333 55100 02 0.200 0.261 0.335 0.422 OK
Connor Norby1B 3611726 0.222 3120.333 55100 02 0.200 0.189 0.311 0.283 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 3914827 0.182 2120.307 53100 20 0.333 0.227 0.356 0.401 OK
Leo Jiménez3B 9235 0.217 010.321 54100 11 0.250 0.209 0.300 0.287 OK
Owen CaissieRF 299218 0.196 1150.250 55311 01 0.600 0.144 0.252 0.203 OK
Joe MackC 7224 0.182 010.217 55100 01 0.200 0.201 0.257 0.340 OK
TEAM TOTALS 453812 33 69 0.316

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 3916542 0.255 13210.311 55214 00 0.400 0.280 0.339 0.613 OK
Brooks LeeSS 3713636 0.265 5220.320 44210 01 0.500 0.309 0.363 0.403 OK
Austin MartinLF 268929 0.326 170.450 44000 00 0.000 0.305 0.366 0.373 OK
Josh BellDH 3814430 0.208 3190.281 44111 01 0.250 0.169 0.191 0.209 OK
Kody Clemens1B 269020 0.222 390.333 43110 11 0.333 0.255 0.340 0.397 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 4014734 0.231 1150.320 43110 10 0.333 0.240 0.413 0.316 OK
Victor CaratiniC 279318 0.194 1120.288 44100 01 0.250 0.155 0.233 0.194 OK
Matt WallnerRF 3211520 0.174 4100.269 43000 12 0.000 0.194 0.262 0.362 OK
Tristan Gray3B 175914 0.237 3140.270 44000 01 0.000 0.239 0.281 0.329 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37348 55 37 0.235

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max MeyerStarter 841.32.83 1.1149.845 4.24222383 4.2 3 2
Tyler PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1222.51.20 1.3789.624 1.10000115 1.1 1 0
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 1714.63.70 1.5759.916 1.01000119 1.0 1 0
John KingMiddle Reliever 1912.70.71 0.70910.615 1.00000010 1.0 0 0
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 1711.45.53 1.66713.417 0.23331229 0.2 2 3

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Simeon Woods RichardsonStarter 837.67.18 1.7824.519 3.270046110 3.2 6 0
Justin TopaMiddle Reliever 2113.59.33 2.2968.713 1.11110013 1.1 0 1
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 1716.25.00 1.7288.916 0.21000013 0.2 0 0
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 1613.33.38 1.7298.813 1.11001022 1.1 0 0
Luis GarcíaMiddle Reliever 65.28.65 1.5380.00 1.01110116 1.0 1 1
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever 915.05.40 1.6679.015 1.01111223 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-3


New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles

NYY 27-17 (5.07 RPG / 3.5 RA)
4 - 3
BAL 20-24 (4.39 RPG / 5.23 RA)
NYY WINS Target: NYY 5 - 4 BAL Confidence: 54.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYY11000000248
BAL01002000035

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff19
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed5.7
Run Diff-22
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 3512622 0.175 4210.307 44100 01 0.250 0.245 0.344 0.459 OK
Ben Rice1B 3412538 0.304 12270.413 43210 11 0.667 0.227 0.285 0.441 OK
Aaron JudgeDH 4315342 0.275 16300.413 44111 02 0.250 0.303 0.448 0.600 OK
Cody BellingerLF 4114841 0.277 5270.385 44000 02 0.000 0.219 0.368 0.338 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 3914730 0.204 4140.285 44100 01 0.250 0.185 0.245 0.280 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 299717 0.175 290.231 44100 01 0.250 0.135 0.157 0.219 OK
Spencer JonesRF 4111 0.091 010.167 44000 00 0.000 0.200 0.266 0.308 OK
Anthony VolpeSS 000 0.000 000.000 44212 01 0.500 0.246 0.310 0.392
J.C. EscarraC 11398 0.205 060.262 43011 01 0.000 0.219 0.286 0.356 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36348 44 110 0.235

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 4214839 0.264 1120.424 53110 21 0.333 0.172 0.390 0.249 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 4217936 0.201 9210.258 44100 00 0.250 0.201 0.239 0.282 OK
Adley RutschmanC 259827 0.276 5190.330 44112 01 0.250 0.215 0.266 0.396 OK
Pete Alonso1B 4316134 0.211 8220.306 44000 01 0.000 0.181 0.217 0.369 OK
Tyler O'NeillRF 16499 0.184 160.333 43000 11 0.000 0.184 0.295 0.271 OK
Leody TaverasCF 279024 0.267 2180.377 43000 10 0.000 0.219 0.310 0.330 OK
Coby MayoDH 3210417 0.163 4140.237 44100 01 0.250 0.199 0.275 0.365 OK
Weston Wilson3B 9205 0.250 000.423 44111 02 0.250 0.233 0.349 0.313 OK
Blaze Alexander2B 268317 0.205 020.267 43000 11 0.000 0.288 0.337 0.338 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37325 33 58 0.156

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max FriedStarter 957.52.97 0.9747.548 4.15332694 4.1 6 3
David BednarMiddle Reliever 1816.63.80 1.44611.922 1.10000114 1.1 1 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 2011.33.98 2.12419.124 1.10002024 1.1 0 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 2014.51.24 0.9664.37 0.10001018 0.1 0 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 2217.72.54 1.58211.723 1.20000110 1.2 1 0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle BradishStarter 840.34.91 1.68710.045 3.26221585 3.2 5 2
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2017.60.51 0.45511.222 2.10000011 2.1 0 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 1818.62.90 1.07510.622 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Dietrich EnnsMiddle Reliever 88.82.05 1.59111.211 1.00000313 1.0 3 0
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 85.513.09 2.90911.57 1.02220018 1.0 0 2

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-3


Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox

PHI 20-23 (4.02 RPG / 4.79 RA)
4 - 1
BOS 18-24 (3.81 RPG / 4.07 RA)
PHI WINS Target: PHI 4 - 2 BOS Confidence: 51.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PHI03000100045
BOS01000000015

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff3
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 4215736 0.229 17280.356 44110 02 0.250 0.295 0.351 0.839 OK
Bryce Harper1B 4115041 0.273 10240.368 42000 20 0.000 0.241 0.344 0.502 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 4014934 0.228 3120.295 44000 02 0.000 0.194 0.240 0.286 OK
Brandon MarshLF 3513447 0.351 4210.375 44000 00 0.000 0.403 0.440 0.476 OK
Alec Bohm3B 3713525 0.185 3200.252 44110 00 0.250 0.299 0.361 0.575 OK
Bryson Stott2B 3211926 0.218 3150.268 44211 01 0.500 0.247 0.291 0.458 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 248520 0.235 180.290 43113 11 0.333 0.203 0.226 0.282 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 3411432 0.281 190.354 43000 11 0.000 0.341 0.420 0.546 OK
Edmundo SosaSS 165513 0.236 180.250 44000 01 0.000 0.253 0.277 0.327 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 44 48 0.156

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranCF 3414127 0.191 4180.250 44000 01 0.000 0.197 0.260 0.330 OK
Mickey GasperDH 284 0.500 010.500 43000 10 0.000 0.298 0.346 0.469 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 4015044 0.293 6180.374 44000 01 0.000 0.225 0.313 0.390 OK
Willson Contreras1B 3813535 0.259 8230.376 44200 01 0.500 0.208 0.338 0.400 OK
Masataka YoshidaLF 186216 0.258 040.370 44100 00 0.250 0.238 0.312 0.288 OK
Trevor StorySS 3915832 0.203 2180.243 43100 00 0.333 0.200 0.249 0.272 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 3110222 0.216 180.289 44000 01 0.000 0.178 0.252 0.222 OK
Connor WongC 154612 0.261 070.346 43000 10 0.000 0.216 0.299 0.299 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 3712922 0.171 1130.252 43111 10 0.333 0.167 0.223 0.237 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 11 34 0.156

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew PainterStarter 731.57.14 1.7788.630 4.24002293 4.2 2 0
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 1110.21.76 1.17614.116 1.11000115 1.1 1 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 1715.54.65 1.41910.518 0.10000112 0.1 1 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 1910.56.86 2.47616.319 1.2011008 1.2 0 1
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 1613.61.99 1.1767.311 1.00001021 1.0 0 0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sonny GrayStarter 627.33.63 1.3194.915 3.23333587 3.2 5 3
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1312.20.74 0.82011.816 1.1000019 1.1 1 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 1515.13.58 1.25811.319 1.01110118 1.0 1 1
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 54.10.00 0.97613.26 0.21001125 0.2 1 0
Tyler SamaniegoMiddle Reliever 1311.50.00 1.3049.412 1.10000010 1.1 0 0
Zack KellyMiddle Reliever 1512.94.19 1.3959.113 1.00000011 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 4-1


San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers

SD 24-17 (4.24 RPG / 4.22 RA)
2 - 6
MIL 23-16 (5.15 RPG / 3.72 RA)
MIL WINS Target: SD 1 - 5 MIL Confidence: 62.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SD00000200025
MIL01200003x67

SD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-1
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed2.4
Run Diff30
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak5W

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson MerrillCF 3915434 0.221 4180.294 44100 00 0.250 0.201 0.308 0.283 OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 3914736 0.245 0140.325 43100 10 0.333 0.248 0.359 0.304 OK
Manny Machado3B 3914027 0.193 6200.293 44000 00 0.000 0.142 0.200 0.298 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 2810431 0.298 3120.324 44210 01 0.500 0.226 0.243 0.434 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 3914538 0.262 6210.335 43000 12 0.000 0.228 0.268 0.329 OK
Gavin SheetsLF 3010321 0.204 390.268 44112 01 0.250 0.184 0.297 0.352 OK
Nick CastellanosRF 207014 0.200 1130.240 44000 00 0.000 0.250 0.278 0.357 OK
Ty France1B 186216 0.258 490.292 33000 01 0.000 0.224 0.253 0.438 OK
Rodolfo DuránC 260 0.000 000.000 33000 01 0.000 0.203 0.255 0.329
TEAM TOTALS 34325 22 26 0.156

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 6269 0.346 030.393 43010 10 0.000 0.244 0.292 0.348 OK
Brice Turang2B 3613541 0.304 6250.424 44110 01 0.250 0.317 0.399 0.521 OK
William ContrerasC 3614543 0.297 3260.372 44111 01 0.250 0.314 0.401 0.417 OK
Jake BauersDH 3111632 0.276 6200.359 43111 10 0.333 0.332 0.427 0.557 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 5174 0.235 140.381 44110 01 0.250 0.240 0.337 0.426 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 2910223 0.225 1220.344 43000 11 0.000 0.172 0.240 0.226 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 2710019 0.190 0110.268 44314 00 0.750 0.183 0.281 0.242 OK
Sal FrelickRF 3211624 0.207 3100.292 44000 00 0.000 0.253 0.307 0.342 OK
Joey OrtizSS 268417 0.202 1110.266 32000 11 0.000 0.235 0.273 0.398 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35317 66 45 0.226

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael KingStarter 845.22.79 1.0629.045 3.24331170 3.2 1 3
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 1818.20.99 0.65918.838 1.10000112 1.1 1 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 1311.31.59 0.8854.05 0.20000110 0.2 1 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 1817.56.69 1.54313.426 1.11001123 1.1 1 0
Jeremiah EstradaMiddle Reliever 119.74.64 1.23714.816 1.02332136 1.0 1 3

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob MisiorowskiStarter 843.32.49 0.97014.570 4.13001379 4.1 3 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 1713.73.94 1.16810.516 1.02221024 1.0 0 2
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 1923.22.33 1.46615.941 1.10000111 1.1 1 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 1515.03.60 1.20011.419 1.10000113 1.1 1 0
DL HallMiddle Reliever 1716.22.22 1.48111.721 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 6-2


Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

SEA 21-22 (4.19 RPG / 3.91 RA)
6 - 3
HOU 16-27 (4.63 RPG / 5.65 RA)
SEA WINS Target: SEA 5 - 4 HOU Confidence: 53.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SEA022000020610
HOU021000000311

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.9
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-10
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 3411924 0.202 4130.362 55210 00 0.400 0.194 0.330 0.288 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 4317146 0.269 7190.332 55000 01 0.000 0.298 0.339 0.558 OK
Josh Naylor1B 4015839 0.247 5200.306 54110 10 0.250 0.308 0.348 0.460 OK
Cal RaleighC 3915525 0.161 7170.246 54211 10 0.500 0.117 0.196 0.166 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 4315547 0.303 4160.389 44011 02 0.000 0.415 0.484 0.607 OK
Luke RaleyRF 309725 0.258 7210.327 44000 01 0.000 0.222 0.324 0.545 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 277721 0.273 4170.333 43112 11 0.333 0.254 0.323 0.452 OK
Cole Young2B 4315038 0.253 3220.331 44100 00 0.250 0.156 0.282 0.216 OK
Leo Rivas3B 298712 0.138 050.276 44312 00 0.750 0.135 0.278 0.215 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403710 66 35 0.270

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jose Altuve2B 3915239 0.257 390.339 55000 01 0.000 0.303 0.359 0.389 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 4315949 0.308 13290.413 54000 11 0.000 0.232 0.331 0.425 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 3713536 0.267 3170.357 54200 10 0.500 0.254 0.320 0.342 OK
Christian Walker1B 4215443 0.279 9280.349 54111 11 0.250 0.171 0.229 0.314 OK
Zach DezenzoLF 392 0.222 120.300 55100 01 0.200 0.239 0.304 0.463 OK
Braden ShewmakeSS 7258 0.320 230.320 44111 01 0.250 0.310 0.344 0.541 OK
Brice MatthewsCF 268617 0.198 4120.247 44100 00 0.250 0.173 0.211 0.339 OK
Zach ColeRF 6183 0.167 120.167 44311 00 0.750 0.207 0.246 0.336 OK
Christian VázquezC 196519 0.292 3120.352 44200 01 0.500 0.206 0.256 0.364 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413811 33 36 0.289

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryce MillerStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 3.26221278 3.2 2 2
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 1715.35.88 1.43815.326 1.11001020 1.1 0 0
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 2116.42.74 1.4639.317 1.01000118 1.0 1 0
Cooper CriswellMiddle Reliever 1417.12.11 0.8198.416 1.01000117 1.0 1 0
Josh SimpsonMiddle Reliever 22.09.00 1.00013.53 0.22110120 0.2 1 1
Alex HoppeMiddle Reliever 56.27.26 1.45214.510 1.10001122 1.1 1 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Lance McCullers Jr.Starter 733.37.57 1.53210.037 3.26332388 3.2 3 3
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 1414.83.65 1.4869.115 2.10000111 2.1 1 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 1411.510.17 2.52215.720 1.02110017 1.0 0 1
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 1514.64.93 1.3018.614 1.02221133 1.0 1 2
AJ BlubaughMiddle Reliever 1724.65.49 1.5858.022 1.00000011 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 6-3


San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

SF 18-24 (3.45 RPG / 4.36 RA)
7 - 3
LAD 24-18 (4.95 RPG / 3.55 RA)
SF WINS Target: SF 6 - 2 LAD Confidence: 51.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SF001211101712
LAD00120000034

SF Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jung Hoo LeeRF 4115743 0.274 2130.320 55110 00 0.200 0.266 0.304 0.353 OK
Luis Arraez2B 3915547 0.303 0140.337 55312 00 0.600 0.255 0.320 0.319 OK
Heliot RamosLF 3915242 0.276 4190.311 54110 01 0.250 0.334 0.378 0.585 OK
Rafael Devers1B 4215838 0.241 5180.291 55110 02 0.200 0.331 0.404 0.663 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 5162 0.125 110.176 55213 00 0.400 0.201 0.259 0.365 OK
Willy AdamesSS 4116737 0.222 3110.253 54212 11 0.500 0.309 0.324 0.384 OK
Matt Chapman3B 4015335 0.229 1140.310 55000 01 0.000 0.174 0.265 0.274 OK
Drew GilbertCF 196115 0.246 270.313 52110 30 0.500 0.208 0.296 0.298 OK
Jesus RodriguezC 6216 0.286 140.348 44100 01 0.250 0.280 0.343 0.436 OK
TEAM TOTALS 443912 77 46 0.308

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Mookie BettsSS 9376 0.162 270.225 44000 00 0.000 0.188 0.241 0.342 OK
Will SmithC 2911330 0.265 3170.325 43000 12 0.000 0.230 0.296 0.292 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 4015643 0.276 4200.347 43000 12 0.000 0.270 0.362 0.473 OK
Andy PagesCF 4115349 0.320 9350.365 44210 00 0.500 0.253 0.317 0.483 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 4014938 0.255 4190.358 44000 01 0.000 0.277 0.444 0.460 OK
Teoscar HernándezDH 3713332 0.241 4170.320 43000 11 0.000 0.249 0.349 0.328 OK
Miguel Rojas2B 134413 0.295 140.311 44000 02 0.000 0.219 0.250 0.341 OK
Alex CallLF 8298 0.276 030.417 44112 02 0.250 0.221 0.330 0.301 OK
Santiago Espinal3B 7224 0.182 020.182 32111 10 0.500 0.220 0.255 0.306 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 33 410 0.129

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Robbie RayStarter 844.52.83 1.1249.547 2.23224392 2.2 3 2
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 1817.01.59 1.23510.119 1.20000215 1.2 2 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 1917.42.59 0.8627.815 1.20000214 1.2 2 0
Joel PegueroMiddle Reliever 43.32.73 0.9092.71 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Matt GageMiddle Reliever 2113.11.37 1.4508.212 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Sam HentgesMiddle Reliever 21.10.00 3.63616.42 1.00110211 1.0 2 1

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shohei OhtaniStarter 637.00.97 0.81110.242 2.24112274 2.2 2 1
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 1815.41.75 0.6499.416 1.22331134 1.2 1 3
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 1711.73.85 1.19713.117 1.24110026 1.2 0 1
Kyle HurtMiddle Reliever 1010.00.90 0.60012.614 1.01111123 1.0 1 1
Jack DreyerMiddle Reliever 1918.82.39 1.06410.522 1.00000212 1.0 2 0
Blake TreinenMiddle Reliever 1510.82.50 1.38910.012 1.01110011 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

SF wins 7-3


St. Louis Cardinals @ Oakland Athletics

STL 24-17 (4.68 RPG / 4.56 RA)
3 - 6
OAK 21-20 (4.39 RPG / 4.59 RA)
OAK WINS Target: STL 3 - 5 OAK Confidence: 52.6% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
STL002000001034
OAK0000300003614

STL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff2
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 4015538 0.245 8220.360 54110 12 0.250 0.238 0.343 0.375 OK
Iván HerreraDH 4115040 0.267 4180.406 53011 12 0.000 0.331 0.388 0.426 OK
Alec Burleson1B 3915842 0.266 6300.335 54000 13 0.000 0.240 0.290 0.425 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 3914945 0.302 11300.382 54000 11 0.000 0.291 0.385 0.546 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 3512828 0.219 4210.290 54000 13 0.000 0.207 0.297 0.314 OK
Masyn WinnSS 3513634 0.250 1160.316 43000 10 0.000 0.212 0.260 0.317 OK
Nathan ChurchLF 3111528 0.243 4140.273 44212 01 0.500 0.239 0.276 0.342 OK
Pedro PagésC 268818 0.205 380.253 43000 02 0.000 0.127 0.176 0.213 OK
Victor Scott IICF 339618 0.188 150.255 44100 01 0.250 0.227 0.309 0.329 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41334 33 615 0.121

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shea LangeliersDH 3715352 0.340 12250.396 65210 11 0.400 0.366 0.425 0.704 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 4014638 0.260 5210.416 55212 02 0.400 0.291 0.401 0.452 OK
Colby ThomasRF 6185 0.278 120.350 55100 01 0.200 0.260 0.332 0.434 OK
Brent RookerLF 249117 0.187 5180.283 55100 02 0.200 0.265 0.376 0.521 OK
Justyn-Henry MalloyCF 000 0.000 000.000 55112 00 0.200 0.232 0.301 0.374
Jonah HeimC 140 0.000 000.000 55310 00 0.600 0.225 0.286 0.415
Zack Gelof3B 186316 0.254 3110.309 55311 00 0.600 0.262 0.328 0.481 OK
Darell HernaizSS 165010 0.200 150.310 55000 02 0.000 0.196 0.296 0.255 OK
Michael Stefanic2B 000 0.000 000.000 54111 10 0.250 0.246 0.317 0.376
TEAM TOTALS 464414 66 28 0.318

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matthew LiberatoreStarter 841.34.14 1.4536.329 4.1103315110 4.1 5 3
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 2018.62.90 1.02211.123 1.20001015 1.2 0 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 2016.63.80 1.3259.818 0.10000011 0.1 0 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 1915.24.14 1.4478.915 1.2000009 1.2 0 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 2015.27.11 2.10514.224 0.11000219 0.1 2 0
Matt SvansonReliever 1817.111.05 2.33910.019 1.23330126 - - -

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
J.T. GinnStarter 935.73.78 1.1767.831 4.12221783 4.1 7 2
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 2215.33.53 2.22212.922 1.10002128 1.1 1 0
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 1512.33.66 1.3014.46 1.10000210 1.1 2 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 1816.31.66 0.7989.918 1.01002131 1.0 1 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 1914.19.57 2.12811.518 0.11111328 0.1 3 1
Justin SternerMiddle Reliever 1916.44.94 1.64612.122 1.20000112 1.2 1 0

Game Summary

OAK wins 6-3 (Extra Innings - 10)


Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

TB 28-13 (4.54 RPG / 3.95 RA)
4 - 2
TOR 18-24 (4.17 RPG / 4.55 RA)
TB WINS Target: TB 4 - 3 TOR Confidence: 53.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TB000121000412
TOR10100000024

TB Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed2.4
Run Diff22
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 3715045 0.300 070.327 55211 00 0.400 0.310 0.324 0.340 OK
Junior Caminero3B 4015640 0.256 11190.343 55311 02 0.600 0.257 0.344 0.472 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 3814140 0.284 8330.376 55100 01 0.200 0.333 0.431 0.494 OK
Yandy DíazDH 3915044 0.293 5230.374 54112 10 0.250 0.202 0.260 0.297 OK
Jake FraleyRF 226918 0.261 250.329 44000 01 0.000 0.268 0.311 0.417 OK
Richie Palacios2B 195011 0.220 170.365 44210 00 0.500 0.211 0.303 0.279 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 3212016 0.133 2130.186 44200 00 0.500 0.155 0.182 0.197 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 153610 0.278 030.381 44100 00 0.250 0.287 0.366 0.385 OK
Taylor WallsSS 298818 0.205 080.314 44000 00 0.000 0.222 0.329 0.339 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403912 44 14 0.308

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 238918 0.202 270.283 44211 01 0.500 0.230 0.272 0.308 OK
Yohendrick PinangoLF 92710 0.370 040.414 44000 01 0.000 0.278 0.329 0.378 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 4115345 0.294 2180.377 44111 00 0.250 0.164 0.239 0.200 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 4115337 0.242 10260.326 42100 20 0.500 0.242 0.319 0.407 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 3613633 0.243 490.313 44000 02 0.000 0.274 0.323 0.336 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 3010928 0.257 5160.300 43000 11 0.000 0.241 0.300 0.392 OK
Ernie Clement2B 4116649 0.295 2120.314 44000 01 0.000 0.322 0.337 0.443 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 3613334 0.256 5230.279 33000 00 0.000 0.214 0.234 0.440 OK
Tyler HeinemanC 18539 0.170 020.214 33000 00 0.000 0.144 0.196 0.196 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 22 36 0.129

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Griffin JaxStarter 1315.24.14 1.44710.117 4.14221382 4.1 3 2
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 1816.22.22 0.86410.619 1.10001118 1.1 1 0
Cole SulserMiddle Reliever 1619.52.77 1.3857.416 1.10000013 1.1 0 0
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 86.24.35 1.77413.19 0.20000211 0.2 2 0
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 1816.23.33 0.8648.315 1.10001015 1.1 0 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dylan CeaseStarter 844.42.64 1.26113.466 3.27111282 3.2 2 1
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 2018.10.50 1.27114.930 1.13220023 1.1 0 2
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 1917.52.06 1.1435.711 0.12110015 0.1 0 1
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 1916.56.00 1.87917.532 1.20000011 1.2 0 0
Braydon FisherMiddle Reliever 2118.73.85 1.3379.620 1.00000010 1.0 0 0
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever 2010.75.89 1.77616.019 1.00000214 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

TB wins 4-2


Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds

WAS 20-22 (5.4 RPG / 5.57 RA)
5 - 3
CIN 22-20 (4.0 RPG / 4.93 RA)
WAS WINS Target: WAS 6 - 2 CIN Confidence: 61.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
WAS000000014510
CIN01000002037

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff3
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed6.2
Run Diff-28
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodLF 4216039 0.244 12290.392 54311 10 0.750 0.263 0.389 0.609 OK
Curtis Mead1B 165916 0.271 3110.377 55212 01 0.400 0.272 0.379 0.476 OK
Brady House3B 3313630 0.221 6200.279 55000 02 0.000 0.216 0.286 0.432 OK
CJ AbramsSS 4014643 0.295 9360.393 44000 01 0.000 0.266 0.338 0.421 OK
Jacob YoungCF 3613729 0.212 3160.260 44210 01 0.500 0.164 0.248 0.291 OK
Daylen LileDH 4116343 0.264 5190.331 44111 00 0.250 0.328 0.376 0.625 OK
Joey WiemerRF 165516 0.291 260.381 43100 12 0.333 0.214 0.288 0.337 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 3611725 0.214 0140.326 44000 01 0.000 0.212 0.340 0.264 OK
Keibert RuizC 227415 0.203 2110.221 44111 01 0.250 0.232 0.252 0.476 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393710 55 29 0.270

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Will BensonRF 20559 0.164 120.292 55000 00 0.000 0.207 0.355 0.302 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 4216849 0.292 10290.355 54000 12 0.000 0.366 0.396 0.483 OK
Sal Stewart3B 4216041 0.256 10300.335 44210 00 0.500 0.272 0.316 0.462 OK
JJ BledayLF 144513 0.289 4110.429 44212 01 0.500 0.266 0.394 0.502 OK
Spencer Steer1B 3913833 0.239 7130.312 44000 02 0.000 0.228 0.288 0.386 OK
Nathaniel LoweDH 227520 0.267 6150.345 44200 01 0.500 0.240 0.314 0.442 OK
Tyler StephensonC 3010017 0.170 270.270 42111 20 0.500 0.170 0.241 0.230 OK
TJ FriedlCF 3513726 0.190 270.270 44000 02 0.000 0.167 0.240 0.246 OK
Matt McLain2B 3814530 0.207 3140.311 43000 11 0.000 0.213 0.303 0.279 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 33 49 0.206

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jake IrvinStarter 839.25.28 1.3789.441 3.25221693 3.2 6 2
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 1612.25.90 1.88512.517 2.10000114 2.1 1 0
PJ PoulinMiddle Reliever 2015.54.06 1.6778.114 1.00001121 1.0 1 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1325.23.57 1.2707.521 1.02112134 1.0 1 1
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 97.81.15 2.05112.711 1.0000007 1.0 0 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick LodoloStarter 15.17.06 1.1763.52 5.24220586 5.2 5 2
Graham AshcraftMiddle Reliever 2019.51.85 1.28211.124 1.00001224 1.0 2 0
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 1715.33.53 1.37310.017 1.11110120 1.1 1 1
Pierce JohnsonMiddle Reliever 1913.54.67 1.63010.015 1.05221142 1.0 1 2

Game Summary

WAS wins 5-3