| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ TEX | 2 - 4 | 3 - 4 | TEX wins 4-3 | 59% | enhanced_ml |
| CHC @ ATL | 6 - 7 | 5 - 6 | ATL wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11) | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| COL @ PIT | 2 - 8 | 1 - 8 | PIT wins 8-1 | 60% | enhanced_ml |
| DET @ NYM | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 | NYM wins 4-2 | 55% | enhanced_ml |
| KC @ CHW | 3 - 4 | 3 - 5 | CHW wins 5-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| LAA @ CLE | 3 - 5 | 3 - 4 | CLE wins 4-3 | 55% | enhanced_ml |
| MIA @ MIN | 5 - 6 | 5 - 6 | MIN wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11) | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| NYY @ BAL | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | NYY wins 5-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| PHI @ BOS | 3 - 4 | 3 - 5 | BOS wins 5-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| SD @ MIL | 2 - 5 | 2 - 5 | MIL wins 5-2 | 68% | enhanced_ml |
| SEA @ HOU | 5 - 4 | 5 - 3 | SEA wins 5-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| SF @ LAD | 3 - 4 | 3 - 6 | LAD wins 6-3 | 52% | enhanced_ml |
| STL @ OAK | 3 - 5 | 2 - 8 | OAK wins 8-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml |
| TB @ TOR | 4 - 3 | 5 - 4 | TB wins 5-4 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| WAS @ CIN | 6 - 3 | 6 - 1 | WAS wins 6-1 | 68% | enhanced_ml |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | x | 4 | 9 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 36 | 149 | 32 | 0.215 | 5 | 15 | 0.264 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.185 | 0.230 | 0.380 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 38 | 134 | 35 | 0.261 | 5 | 20 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.243 | 0.338 | 0.459 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 37 | 127 | 29 | 0.228 | 2 | 12 | 0.342 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.303 | 0.318 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 37 | 127 | 35 | 0.276 | 6 | 18 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.270 | 0.346 | 0.457 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 31 | 126 | 40 | 0.317 | 6 | 21 | 0.338 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.216 | 0.256 | 0.285 | OK |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | LF | 16 | 59 | 12 | 0.203 | 0 | 4 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.205 | 0.295 | 0.264 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 17 | 61 | 12 | 0.197 | 1 | 6 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.267 | 0.306 | OK |
| Jose Fernandez | DH | 26 | 96 | 29 | 0.302 | 3 | 12 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.322 | 0.311 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0.200 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.279 | 0.371 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joc Pederson | DH | 30 | 82 | 17 | 0.207 | 1 | 6 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.351 | 0.390 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 39 | 152 | 42 | 0.276 | 4 | 12 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.314 | 0.269 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 40 | 148 | 28 | 0.189 | 7 | 19 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.108 | 0.251 | 0.194 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 37 | 142 | 46 | 0.324 | 5 | 20 | 0.374 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.311 | 0.346 | 0.454 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 36 | 114 | 21 | 0.184 | 5 | 13 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.164 | 0.312 | 0.364 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | 2B | 27 | 89 | 25 | 0.281 | 2 | 11 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.247 | 0.320 | 0.413 | OK |
| Alejandro Osuna | LF | 11 | 28 | 7 | 0.250 | 0 | 4 | 0.400 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.357 | 0.350 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 38 | 150 | 30 | 0.200 | 5 | 18 | 0.234 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.153 | 0.193 | 0.231 | OK |
| Kyle Higashioka | C | 16 | 57 | 11 | 0.193 | 1 | 5 | 0.270 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.250 | 0.255 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zac Gallen | Starter | 8 | 37.4 | 4.81 | 1.524 | 6.0 | 25 | 3.1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 86 | 3.1 | 6 | 0 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 7.5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.476 | 8.6 | 2 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| MacKenzie Gore | Starter | 8 | 38.6 | 5.36 | 1.451 | 11.2 | 48 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 74 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 16 | 19.5 | 0.92 | 0.462 | 7.8 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 16 | 18.3 | 1.97 | 0.820 | 4.4 | 9 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Cole Winn | Middle Reliever | 18 | 13.9 | 5.18 | 1.655 | 11.7 | 18 | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.2 | 2.62 | 1.628 | 7.8 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
TEX wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| ATL | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 39 | 161 | 44 | 0.273 | 4 | 28 | 0.348 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.197 | 0.251 | 0.306 | OK |
| Michael Conforto | DH | 11 | 33 | 12 | 0.364 | 1 | 5 | 0.500 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.331 | 0.422 | 0.583 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 39 | 157 | 35 | 0.223 | 3 | 12 | 0.320 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.178 | 0.286 | 0.233 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 39 | 146 | 34 | 0.233 | 9 | 18 | 0.367 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.361 | 0.442 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 25 | 94 | 28 | 0.298 | 7 | 16 | 0.407 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.227 | 0.357 | 0.439 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 39 | 146 | 34 | 0.233 | 3 | 22 | 0.345 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.313 | 0.439 | 0.463 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | C | 28 | 88 | 22 | 0.250 | 6 | 17 | 0.313 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.155 | 0.229 | 0.325 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 39 | 133 | 26 | 0.195 | 6 | 23 | 0.308 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.246 | 0.270 | OK |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 40 | 149 | 37 | 0.248 | 4 | 17 | 0.317 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.360 | 0.476 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 45 | 40 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 0.175 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drake Baldwin | C | 41 | 165 | 49 | 0.297 | 10 | 32 | 0.383 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.350 | 0.430 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 41 | 160 | 49 | 0.306 | 8 | 25 | 0.356 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.275 | 0.326 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 41 | 159 | 47 | 0.296 | 14 | 36 | 0.377 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.266 | 0.346 | 0.606 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 32 | 123 | 37 | 0.301 | 6 | 19 | 0.326 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.298 | 0.361 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 39 | 144 | 39 | 0.271 | 2 | 23 | 0.331 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.294 | 0.366 | 0.410 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 40 | 153 | 33 | 0.216 | 5 | 24 | 0.288 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.232 | 0.278 | 0.354 | OK |
| Dominic Smith | DH | 19 | 66 | 23 | 0.348 | 4 | 17 | 0.380 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.287 | 0.339 | 0.420 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.311 | 0.393 | |
| Mike Yastrzemski | RF | 28 | 100 | 20 | 0.200 | 0 | 6 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.198 | 0.221 | 0.245 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 39 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0.179 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Colin Rea | Starter | 8 | 36.6 | 4.18 | 1.421 | 8.6 | 35 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 73 | 4.2 | 2 | 4 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 8 | 6.3 | 2.86 | 1.270 | 10.0 | 7 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Brown | Middle Reliever | 13 | 28.5 | 1.89 | 0.947 | 8.5 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Phil Maton | Middle Reliever | 11 | 7.8 | 9.23 | 1.923 | 15.0 | 13 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.0 | 4.50 | 1.857 | 11.6 | 18 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hoby Milner | Reliever | 19 | 15.3 | 2.94 | 1.242 | 3.5 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | - | - | - |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Grant Holmes | Starter | 7 | 36.4 | 4.45 | 1.346 | 7.2 | 29 | 3.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 90 | 3.2 | 5 | 3 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 10 | 10.2 | 0.00 | 0.686 | 12.4 | 14 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.3 | 0.55 | 0.920 | 8.8 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.5 | 1.03 | 0.514 | 11.8 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Kinley | Middle Reliever | 19 | 16.4 | 3.84 | 1.402 | 10.4 | 19 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 2.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Reynaldo López | Middle Reliever | 8 | 26.2 | 3.78 | 1.450 | 8.2 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
ATL wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | x | 8 | 9 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Edouard Julien | 2B | 27 | 95 | 27 | 0.284 | 2 | 12 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.346 | 0.330 | OK |
| Mickey Moniak | CF | 29 | 112 | 35 | 0.312 | 11 | 20 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.304 | 0.483 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 35 | 140 | 34 | 0.243 | 10 | 16 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.306 | 0.450 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 37 | 141 | 38 | 0.270 | 4 | 20 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.287 | 0.356 | 0.439 | OK |
| Tyler Freeman | RF | 18 | 70 | 18 | 0.257 | 2 | 9 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.321 | 0.414 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | DH | 31 | 115 | 37 | 0.322 | 2 | 16 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.324 | 0.403 | 0.420 | OK |
| Willi Castro | 3B | 29 | 107 | 27 | 0.252 | 2 | 13 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.316 | 0.385 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 36 | 135 | 27 | 0.200 | 1 | 10 | 0.248 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.255 | 0.252 | OK |
| Jake McCarthy | LF | 25 | 75 | 21 | 0.280 | 2 | 13 | 0.341 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.317 | 0.379 | 0.657 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 38 | 164 | 42 | 0.256 | 10 | 29 | 0.322 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.336 | 0.387 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 34 | 133 | 35 | 0.263 | 10 | 27 | 0.365 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.304 | 0.389 | 0.661 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 39 | 139 | 35 | 0.252 | 4 | 23 | 0.400 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.223 | 0.367 | 0.340 | OK |
| Ryan O'Hearn | RF | 37 | 141 | 41 | 0.291 | 5 | 26 | 0.370 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.293 | 0.277 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 34 | 134 | 43 | 0.321 | 0 | 18 | 0.381 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.270 | 0.373 | 0.329 | OK |
| Marcell Ozuna | DH | 32 | 128 | 25 | 0.195 | 4 | 14 | 0.280 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.365 | 0.420 | OK |
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 32 | 105 | 27 | 0.257 | 2 | 17 | 0.385 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.260 | 0.383 | 0.483 | OK |
| Konnor Griffin | SS | 33 | 124 | 32 | 0.258 | 3 | 18 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.316 | 0.417 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 24 | 80 | 13 | 0.162 | 2 | 7 | 0.264 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.180 | 0.291 | 0.394 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 32 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 0.281 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Lorenzen | Starter | 9 | 37.6 | 7.18 | 1.968 | 6.2 | 26 | 4.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 113 | 4.1 | 9 | 5 |
| Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever | 14 | 15.2 | 6.51 | 1.842 | 8.3 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 37 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 11 | 21.3 | 1.27 | 0.939 | 9.3 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 16 | 17.0 | 5.29 | 1.824 | 13.2 | 25 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Paul Skenes | Starter | 8 | 41.3 | 2.40 | 0.726 | 10.0 | 46 | 5.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 81 | 5.2 | 8 | 0 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.4 | 3.84 | 1.402 | 5.5 | 10 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.4 | 1.39 | 0.670 | 12.1 | 26 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaac Mattson | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.0 | 5.40 | 1.800 | 7.8 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
PIT wins 8-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| NYM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 7 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kevin McGonigle | SS | 38 | 146 | 43 | 0.295 | 2 | 16 | 0.398 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.334 | 0.235 | OK |
| Matt Vierling | CF | 24 | 85 | 19 | 0.224 | 1 | 14 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.307 | 0.439 | OK |
| Colt Keith | DH | 27 | 95 | 27 | 0.284 | 0 | 4 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.345 | 0.306 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 40 | 144 | 46 | 0.319 | 4 | 20 | 0.420 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.412 | 0.503 | 0.597 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 31 | 119 | 28 | 0.235 | 6 | 25 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.179 | 0.228 | 0.303 | OK |
| Wenceel Pérez | RF | 19 | 68 | 10 | 0.147 | 0 | 5 | 0.194 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.225 | 0.259 | 0.303 | OK |
| Gage Workman | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.304 | 0.367 | |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 38 | 131 | 28 | 0.214 | 6 | 15 | 0.331 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.297 | 0.333 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | 2B | 16 | 52 | 9 | 0.173 | 1 | 5 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.176 | 0.280 | 0.276 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carson Benge | RF | 32 | 110 | 23 | 0.209 | 3 | 11 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.332 | 0.465 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 40 | 162 | 36 | 0.222 | 2 | 16 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.259 | 0.204 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 24 | 90 | 23 | 0.256 | 4 | 10 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.178 | 0.266 | 0.385 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | 1B | 29 | 103 | 23 | 0.223 | 5 | 16 | 0.270 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.249 | 0.419 | OK |
| MJ Melendez | DH | 15 | 43 | 13 | 0.302 | 2 | 6 | 0.388 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.254 | 0.347 | 0.431 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 30 | 104 | 23 | 0.221 | 1 | 12 | 0.281 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.319 | 0.315 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 40 | 142 | 32 | 0.225 | 2 | 13 | 0.284 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.276 | 0.349 | 0.435 | OK |
| AJ Smith-Shawver | CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.233 | 0.303 | 0.376 | |
| Francisco Alvarez | C | 31 | 106 | 24 | 0.226 | 4 | 9 | 0.308 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.242 | 0.306 | 0.324 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 31 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Flaherty | Starter | 8 | 32.6 | 5.80 | 1.718 | 11.6 | 42 | 3.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 67 | 3.1 | 5 | 4 |
| Kenley Jansen | Middle Reliever | 11 | 8.4 | 3.21 | 1.310 | 12.9 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.7 | 0.51 | 1.412 | 6.6 | 13 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 1.2 | 3 | 0 |
| Burch Smith | Middle Reliever | 8 | 11.2 | 3.21 | 1.429 | 12.9 | 16 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brant Hurter | Middle Reliever | 17 | 17.7 | 2.03 | 1.017 | 7.6 | 15 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Freddy Peralta | Starter | 8 | 41.7 | 3.24 | 1.247 | 9.3 | 43 | 3.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 81 | 3.1 | 4 | 2 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 14 | 11.5 | 4.70 | 1.478 | 16.4 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 16 | 14.7 | 4.90 | 1.293 | 9.8 | 16 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 16 | 12.9 | 1.40 | 1.008 | 12.6 | 18 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Huascar Brazobán | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.7 | 3.06 | 1.361 | 8.6 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Craig Kimbrel | Middle Reliever | 10 | 8.4 | 7.50 | 1.905 | 12.9 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
NYM wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 38 | 150 | 43 | 0.287 | 3 | 16 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.370 | 0.439 | 0.514 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 41 | 162 | 49 | 0.302 | 5 | 19 | 0.372 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.352 | 0.407 | 0.626 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 38 | 144 | 29 | 0.201 | 5 | 19 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.252 | 0.293 | 0.408 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | C | 39 | 152 | 29 | 0.191 | 5 | 17 | 0.233 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.142 | 0.216 | 0.204 | OK |
| Carter Jensen | DH | 34 | 116 | 26 | 0.224 | 6 | 18 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.156 | 0.263 | 0.246 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 33 | 117 | 28 | 0.239 | 3 | 6 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.262 | 0.374 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 31 | 105 | 25 | 0.238 | 3 | 13 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.278 | 0.358 | 0.464 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 23 | 70 | 17 | 0.243 | 3 | 12 | 0.257 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.272 | 0.295 | 0.579 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 31 | 95 | 26 | 0.274 | 3 | 10 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.278 | 0.278 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 20 | 68 | 17 | 0.250 | 1 | 9 | 0.366 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.267 | 0.366 | 0.350 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 38 | 139 | 32 | 0.230 | 15 | 29 | 0.365 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.346 | 0.533 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 37 | 136 | 31 | 0.228 | 9 | 22 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.383 | 0.568 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 38 | 142 | 31 | 0.218 | 10 | 28 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.268 | 0.446 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 37 | 142 | 40 | 0.282 | 2 | 5 | 0.352 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.324 | 0.371 | 0.518 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 27 | 104 | 26 | 0.250 | 2 | 14 | 0.279 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.312 | 0.339 | 0.372 | OK |
| Jarred Kelenic | RF | 7 | 20 | 6 | 0.300 | 0 | 1 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.279 | 0.346 | 0.365 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 27 | 80 | 21 | 0.262 | 0 | 5 | 0.322 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.248 | 0.308 | 0.358 | OK |
| Drew Romo | C | 8 | 23 | 4 | 0.174 | 3 | 4 | 0.387 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.192 | 0.304 | 0.422 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0.212 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Stephen Kolek | Starter | 1 | 6.0 | 4.50 | 0.667 | 4.5 | 3 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 75 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.4 | 3.51 | 1.494 | 8.2 | 14 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Strahm | Middle Reliever | 15 | 14.2 | 3.80 | 1.268 | 9.5 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick Mears | Middle Reliever | 17 | 12.8 | 3.52 | 1.406 | 7.7 | 11 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 16 | 14.7 | 2.45 | 0.816 | 12.9 | 21 | 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0.2 | 1 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Erick Fedde | Starter | 7 | 36.6 | 3.93 | 1.175 | 5.9 | 24 | 5.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 77 | 5.1 | 6 | 0 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever | 1 | 2.1 | 8.57 | 1.905 | 4.3 | 1 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
CHW wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 4 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 42 | 167 | 37 | 0.222 | 6 | 18 | 0.325 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.224 | 0.298 | 0.381 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 41 | 145 | 36 | 0.248 | 11 | 23 | 0.414 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.213 | 0.314 | 0.304 | OK |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | 38 | 151 | 39 | 0.258 | 3 | 20 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.273 | 0.310 | 0.367 | OK |
| Jorge Soler | DH | 38 | 137 | 31 | 0.226 | 8 | 28 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.330 | 0.350 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 2B | 16 | 60 | 17 | 0.283 | 1 | 9 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.296 | 0.350 | OK |
| Yoán Moncada | 3B | 28 | 94 | 16 | 0.170 | 3 | 8 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.240 | 0.239 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 42 | 165 | 46 | 0.279 | 6 | 24 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.344 | 0.394 | 0.670 | OK |
| Josh Lowe | LF | 29 | 98 | 16 | 0.163 | 4 | 10 | 0.210 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.166 | 0.187 | 0.243 | OK |
| Omar Martinez | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.299 | 0.380 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Steven Kwan | LF | 39 | 152 | 31 | 0.204 | 1 | 9 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.177 | 0.314 | 0.237 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | DH | 35 | 135 | 39 | 0.289 | 6 | 25 | 0.370 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.298 | 0.370 | 0.448 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 43 | 158 | 34 | 0.215 | 6 | 16 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.368 | 0.293 | OK |
| Kyle Manzardo | 1B | 30 | 106 | 20 | 0.189 | 1 | 9 | 0.275 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.323 | 0.335 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 12 | 38 | 8 | 0.211 | 1 | 6 | 0.423 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.415 | 0.420 | OK |
| Daniel Schneemann | CF | 30 | 105 | 29 | 0.276 | 4 | 15 | 0.356 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.341 | 0.316 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | RF | 30 | 116 | 31 | 0.267 | 5 | 16 | 0.315 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.177 | 0.243 | 0.252 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.162 | 0.193 | 0.231 | |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 41 | 137 | 38 | 0.277 | 3 | 21 | 0.357 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.322 | 0.400 | 0.399 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0.148 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Walbert Urena | Starter | 6 | 21.4 | 3.36 | 1.636 | 9.3 | 22 | 4.2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 112 | 4.2 | 4 | 4 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 14 | 18.8 | 4.79 | 1.170 | 12.9 | 27 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 14 | 16.2 | 3.89 | 1.296 | 11.7 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Slade Cecconi | Starter | 8 | 39.6 | 6.36 | 1.641 | 7.0 | 31 | 4.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 91 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 18 | 18.1 | 3.48 | 1.271 | 11.9 | 24 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever | 20 | 13.6 | 2.65 | 1.029 | 19.2 | 29 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Festa | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.7 | 6.31 | 1.529 | 11.5 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 10 | 6.6 | 8.18 | 2.121 | 10.9 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
CLE wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 40 | 148 | 47 | 0.318 | 4 | 14 | 0.406 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.247 | 0.329 | 0.493 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | 1B | 31 | 111 | 36 | 0.324 | 9 | 35 | 0.383 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.327 | 0.411 | 0.624 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 39 | 158 | 54 | 0.342 | 4 | 17 | 0.371 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.348 | 0.363 | 0.526 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | RF | 18 | 68 | 16 | 0.235 | 1 | 3 | 0.333 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.230 | 0.326 | 0.387 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 3B | 35 | 114 | 26 | 0.228 | 3 | 12 | 0.341 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.360 | 0.320 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 38 | 145 | 26 | 0.179 | 2 | 12 | 0.306 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 0.313 | 0.344 | OK |
| Christopher Morel | DH | 8 | 27 | 5 | 0.185 | 0 | 1 | 0.267 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.192 | 0.252 | 0.267 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 6 | 19 | 4 | 0.211 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.244 | 0.299 | 0.384 | OK |
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 18 | 65 | 11 | 0.169 | 0 | 9 | 0.250 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.271 | 0.262 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 45 | 43 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 0.233 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Byron Buxton | CF | 38 | 162 | 42 | 0.259 | 13 | 21 | 0.312 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.300 | 0.342 | 0.658 | OK |
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 27 | 92 | 25 | 0.272 | 1 | 11 | 0.385 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.300 | 0.331 | OK |
| Ryan Jeffers | C | 28 | 103 | 31 | 0.301 | 5 | 23 | 0.397 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.306 | 0.384 | 0.569 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 37 | 140 | 30 | 0.214 | 3 | 19 | 0.288 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 0.214 | 0.233 | OK |
| Austin Martin | RF | 25 | 85 | 29 | 0.341 | 1 | 7 | 0.467 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.339 | 0.411 | 0.415 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | 2B | 39 | 144 | 33 | 0.229 | 1 | 15 | 0.315 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.387 | 0.334 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 1B | 25 | 86 | 19 | 0.221 | 3 | 9 | 0.337 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.235 | 0.374 | 0.387 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | SS | 36 | 133 | 36 | 0.271 | 5 | 22 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.301 | 0.338 | 0.394 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 3B | 26 | 88 | 15 | 0.170 | 3 | 12 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.151 | 0.225 | 0.233 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 43 | 38 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 0.132 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Eury Pérez | Starter | 8 | 41.1 | 5.04 | 1.436 | 9.9 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 60 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 |
| Tyler Phillips | Middle Reliever | 12 | 22.5 | 1.20 | 1.378 | 9.6 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.6 | 3.70 | 1.575 | 9.9 | 16 | 1.2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 47 | 1.2 | 2 | 4 |
| John King | Middle Reliever | 19 | 12.7 | 0.71 | 0.709 | 10.6 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Anthony Bender | Middle Reliever | 17 | 11.4 | 5.53 | 1.667 | 13.4 | 17 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Ekness | Reliever | 4 | 3.1 | 2.90 | 0.968 | 5.8 | 2 | 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 29 | - | - | - |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bailey Ober | Starter | 8 | 42.3 | 4.26 | 1.206 | 6.8 | 32 | 4.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 84 | 4.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Topa | Middle Reliever | 21 | 13.5 | 9.33 | 2.296 | 8.7 | 13 | 2.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 2.1 | 1 | 3 |
| Eric Orze | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.2 | 5.00 | 1.728 | 8.9 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Taylor Rogers | Middle Reliever | 16 | 13.3 | 3.38 | 1.729 | 8.8 | 13 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever | 9 | 15.0 | 5.40 | 1.667 | 9.0 | 15 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
MIN wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 14 | 50 | 12 | 0.240 | 3 | 7 | 0.333 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.346 | 0.554 | OK |
| Aaron Judge | RF | 42 | 150 | 40 | 0.267 | 16 | 30 | 0.402 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.380 | 0.537 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 33 | 121 | 37 | 0.306 | 12 | 27 | 0.414 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.253 | 0.296 | 0.574 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 40 | 144 | 41 | 0.285 | 5 | 26 | 0.394 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.327 | 0.460 | 0.557 | OK |
| Amed Rosario | 2B | 19 | 62 | 17 | 0.274 | 4 | 13 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.332 | 0.414 | OK |
| Trent Grisham | CF | 34 | 123 | 21 | 0.171 | 3 | 18 | 0.302 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.301 | 0.346 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 28 | 93 | 17 | 0.183 | 2 | 9 | 0.240 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.179 | 0.202 | 0.327 | OK |
| Max Schuemann | SS | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0.286 | 0 | 1 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.252 | 0.302 | 0.428 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 31 | 95 | 17 | 0.179 | 3 | 5 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.146 | 0.226 | 0.220 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 32 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 41 | 175 | 36 | 0.206 | 9 | 21 | 0.263 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.216 | 0.254 | 0.298 | OK |
| Taylor Ward | LF | 41 | 144 | 37 | 0.257 | 1 | 12 | 0.422 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.099 | 0.357 | 0.139 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 24 | 94 | 27 | 0.287 | 5 | 19 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.271 | 0.340 | 0.513 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 42 | 157 | 33 | 0.210 | 8 | 22 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.181 | 0.217 | 0.393 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | DH | 29 | 109 | 28 | 0.257 | 5 | 13 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.332 | 0.370 | 0.552 | OK |
| Tyler O'Neill | RF | 15 | 45 | 8 | 0.178 | 1 | 5 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.317 | 0.231 | OK |
| Dylan Beavers | CF | 29 | 97 | 24 | 0.247 | 2 | 11 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.304 | 0.407 | 0.487 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 31 | 102 | 17 | 0.167 | 4 | 14 | 0.234 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.241 | 0.349 | OK |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 2B | 34 | 125 | 31 | 0.248 | 6 | 24 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.238 | 0.287 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Will Warren | Starter | 8 | 39.8 | 3.62 | 1.256 | 12.0 | 53 | 3.2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 80 | 3.2 | 5 | 0 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.6 | 4.04 | 1.538 | 12.1 | 21 | 0.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0.2 | 2 | 3 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 19 | 10.2 | 4.41 | 2.353 | 20.3 | 23 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.3 | 1.26 | 0.979 | 4.4 | 7 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brent Headrick | Middle Reliever | 22 | 17.7 | 2.54 | 1.582 | 11.7 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Camilo Doval | Middle Reliever | 18 | 13.1 | 6.87 | 1.374 | 11.7 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trevor Rogers | Starter | 6 | 29.4 | 4.90 | 1.497 | 8.3 | 27 | 3.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 88 | 3.1 | 4 | 2 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.6 | 0.51 | 0.455 | 11.2 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever | 18 | 11.2 | 1.61 | 0.625 | 8.8 | 11 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 7 | 4.5 | 16.00 | 3.556 | 14.0 | 7 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Keegan Akin | Middle Reliever | 7 | 6.2 | 10.16 | 1.774 | 10.2 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dietrich Enns | Middle Reliever | 8 | 8.8 | 2.05 | 1.591 | 11.2 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
NYY wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| BOS | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 10 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trea Turner | SS | 40 | 167 | 40 | 0.240 | 4 | 13 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.235 | 0.273 | OK |
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 41 | 154 | 35 | 0.227 | 16 | 27 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.284 | 0.335 | 0.762 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 40 | 146 | 41 | 0.281 | 10 | 24 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.319 | 0.419 | 0.715 | OK |
| Adolis García | RF | 39 | 145 | 34 | 0.234 | 3 | 12 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.292 | 0.398 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 34 | 130 | 46 | 0.354 | 4 | 21 | 0.379 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.444 | 0.475 | 0.567 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 23 | 81 | 20 | 0.247 | 1 | 8 | 0.303 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.259 | 0.332 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 31 | 115 | 24 | 0.209 | 3 | 14 | 0.260 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.277 | 0.494 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 36 | 132 | 24 | 0.182 | 3 | 20 | 0.250 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.272 | 0.336 | 0.543 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 33 | 112 | 32 | 0.286 | 1 | 9 | 0.355 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.334 | 0.396 | 0.530 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jarren Duran | LF | 33 | 137 | 27 | 0.197 | 4 | 18 | 0.257 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.195 | 0.258 | 0.328 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | 1B | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.750 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.304 | 0.358 | 0.495 | MODERATE |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 39 | 146 | 43 | 0.295 | 6 | 18 | 0.377 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.278 | 0.374 | 0.509 | OK |
| Masataka Yoshida | DH | 17 | 59 | 15 | 0.254 | 0 | 4 | 0.362 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.291 | 0.294 | OK |
| Trevor Story | SS | 38 | 155 | 31 | 0.200 | 2 | 18 | 0.236 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.237 | 0.266 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 35 | 127 | 34 | 0.268 | 3 | 14 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.278 | 0.340 | 0.488 | OK |
| Marcelo Mayer | 2B | 30 | 98 | 21 | 0.214 | 1 | 8 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.284 | 0.253 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 24 | 77 | 16 | 0.208 | 2 | 3 | 0.274 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.163 | 0.305 | 0.306 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 36 | 126 | 22 | 0.175 | 1 | 13 | 0.257 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.204 | 0.256 | 0.272 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zack Wheeler | Starter | 3 | 17.1 | 3.16 | 0.994 | 9.5 | 18 | 2.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 51 | 2.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 10 | 9.2 | 1.96 | 1.087 | 13.7 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.5 | 4.65 | 1.419 | 10.5 | 18 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 18 | 10.3 | 6.99 | 2.524 | 15.7 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 16 | 13.6 | 1.99 | 1.176 | 7.3 | 11 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tanner Banks | Middle Reliever | 15 | 15.5 | 5.23 | 2.065 | 12.2 | 21 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Chase Shugart | Reliever | 12 | 11.8 | 2.29 | 1.186 | 10.7 | 14 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | - | - | - |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jovani Morán | Starter | 11 | 19.8 | 2.73 | 1.212 | 9.1 | 20 | 3.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 63 | 3.1 | 3 | 3 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 13 | 12.2 | 0.74 | 0.820 | 11.8 | 16 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever | 15 | 15.1 | 3.58 | 1.258 | 11.3 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Zack Kelly | Middle Reliever | 14 | 11.9 | 4.54 | 1.513 | 9.1 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Weissert | Middle Reliever | 17 | 12.3 | 5.85 | 1.789 | 13.2 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Samaniego | Middle Reliever | 12 | 11.3 | 0.00 | 1.239 | 8.8 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
BOS wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 8 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 38 | 149 | 34 | 0.228 | 4 | 18 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.354 | 0.340 | OK |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 38 | 144 | 35 | 0.243 | 0 | 14 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.218 | 0.310 | 0.275 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 38 | 136 | 26 | 0.191 | 6 | 20 | 0.294 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.124 | 0.208 | 0.286 | OK |
| Miguel Andujar | DH | 27 | 100 | 29 | 0.290 | 2 | 10 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.252 | 0.411 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 38 | 141 | 37 | 0.262 | 6 | 21 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.294 | 0.401 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | 1B | 29 | 102 | 20 | 0.196 | 3 | 9 | 0.255 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.265 | 0.333 | OK |
| Nick Castellanos | RF | 19 | 66 | 13 | 0.197 | 1 | 11 | 0.239 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.251 | 0.331 | OK |
| Ramón Laureano | LF | 34 | 129 | 29 | 0.225 | 5 | 19 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.144 | 0.289 | 0.312 | OK |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 21 | 66 | 11 | 0.167 | 0 | 3 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.174 | 0.239 | 0.239 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brice Turang | 2B | 35 | 131 | 39 | 0.298 | 6 | 23 | 0.422 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.331 | 0.415 | 0.569 | OK |
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 5 | 22 | 8 | 0.364 | 0 | 3 | 0.417 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.297 | 0.355 | 0.442 | OK |
| Christian Yelich | DH | 13 | 49 | 15 | 0.306 | 0 | 6 | 0.370 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.342 | 0.369 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 35 | 142 | 42 | 0.296 | 3 | 26 | 0.369 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.364 | 0.363 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 30 | 113 | 30 | 0.265 | 6 | 20 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.275 | 0.372 | 0.478 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 28 | 98 | 22 | 0.224 | 1 | 22 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.172 | 0.255 | 0.234 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 31 | 112 | 23 | 0.205 | 3 | 8 | 0.294 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.236 | 0.308 | 0.328 | OK |
| David Hamilton | 3B | 29 | 90 | 21 | 0.233 | 0 | 7 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.261 | 0.264 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | SS | 25 | 81 | 15 | 0.185 | 0 | 9 | 0.256 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.172 | 0.216 | 0.240 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Starter | 17 | 16.4 | 2.20 | 1.220 | 7.7 | 14 | 3.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 95 | 3.2 | 5 | 3 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 18 | 18.2 | 0.99 | 0.659 | 18.8 | 38 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 13 | 11.3 | 1.59 | 0.885 | 4.0 | 5 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.5 | 6.69 | 1.543 | 13.4 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | Middle Reliever | 11 | 9.7 | 4.64 | 1.237 | 14.8 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brandon Sproat | Starter | 7 | 28.8 | 6.25 | 1.632 | 9.4 | 30 | 4.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 91 | 4.1 | 8 | 2 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 16 | 12.7 | 4.25 | 1.181 | 10.6 | 15 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 19 | 23.2 | 2.33 | 1.466 | 15.9 | 41 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 14 | 14.0 | 3.21 | 1.143 | 10.3 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DL Hall | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.2 | 2.22 | 1.481 | 11.7 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
MIL wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brendan Donovan | 3B | 20 | 70 | 18 | 0.257 | 3 | 8 | 0.369 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.199 | 0.275 | 0.271 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 42 | 166 | 46 | 0.277 | 7 | 19 | 0.341 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.342 | 0.382 | 0.714 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 39 | 153 | 38 | 0.248 | 5 | 20 | 0.310 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.317 | 0.357 | 0.474 | OK |
| Cal Raleigh | C | 38 | 151 | 23 | 0.152 | 7 | 17 | 0.235 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.070 | 0.131 | 0.143 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 42 | 151 | 43 | 0.285 | 3 | 13 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.327 | 0.393 | 0.396 | OK |
| Luke Raley | RF | 29 | 94 | 24 | 0.255 | 7 | 21 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.296 | 0.647 | OK |
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 33 | 116 | 23 | 0.198 | 4 | 11 | 0.354 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.173 | 0.310 | 0.268 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 26 | 73 | 20 | 0.274 | 3 | 12 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.316 | 0.310 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 42 | 146 | 38 | 0.260 | 3 | 22 | 0.335 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.229 | 0.322 | 0.337 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 38 | 149 | 38 | 0.255 | 3 | 9 | 0.335 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.277 | 0.322 | 0.362 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 42 | 156 | 49 | 0.314 | 13 | 29 | 0.416 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.235 | 0.315 | 0.433 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 36 | 131 | 36 | 0.275 | 3 | 17 | 0.367 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.306 | 0.374 | 0.398 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 41 | 151 | 42 | 0.278 | 9 | 27 | 0.349 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.170 | 0.233 | 0.283 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 39 | 136 | 28 | 0.206 | 3 | 15 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.153 | 0.283 | 0.204 | OK |
| Zach Dezenzo | LF | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0.167 | 1 | 2 | 0.167 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.282 | 0.440 | OK |
| Braden Shewmake | SS | 6 | 21 | 6 | 0.286 | 2 | 2 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.314 | 0.501 | OK |
| Brice Matthews | CF | 25 | 82 | 17 | 0.207 | 4 | 12 | 0.258 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.198 | 0.236 | 0.419 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 18 | 62 | 19 | 0.306 | 3 | 12 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.264 | 0.368 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryan Woo | Starter | 8 | 47.0 | 4.02 | 1.000 | 7.3 | 38 | 4.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 100 | 4.2 | 4 | 0 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.3 | 5.88 | 1.438 | 15.3 | 26 | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever | 21 | 16.4 | 2.74 | 1.463 | 9.3 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Criswell | Middle Reliever | 14 | 17.1 | 2.11 | 0.819 | 8.4 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tatsuya Imai | Starter | 3 | 7.5 | 8.40 | 2.400 | 15.6 | 13 | 2.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 106 | 2.2 | 5 | 4 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 14 | 14.8 | 3.65 | 1.486 | 9.1 | 15 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever | 14 | 11.5 | 10.17 | 2.522 | 15.7 | 20 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever | 15 | 14.6 | 4.93 | 1.301 | 8.6 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kai-Wei Teng | Middle Reliever | 15 | 23.2 | 3.49 | 1.207 | 8.9 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| AJ Blubaugh | Middle Reliever | 16 | 22.6 | 5.18 | 1.504 | 8.4 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
SEA wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| LAD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 10 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 40 | 152 | 41 | 0.270 | 2 | 11 | 0.317 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.275 | 0.300 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 38 | 151 | 47 | 0.311 | 0 | 14 | 0.342 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.306 | 0.352 | 0.406 | OK |
| Casey Schmitt | 3B | 34 | 126 | 37 | 0.294 | 6 | 18 | 0.348 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.320 | 0.435 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | DH | 41 | 154 | 37 | 0.240 | 5 | 18 | 0.292 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.343 | 0.416 | 0.755 | OK |
| Heliot Ramos | LF | 38 | 148 | 41 | 0.277 | 4 | 19 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.308 | 0.354 | 0.533 | OK |
| Willy Adames | SS | 40 | 163 | 35 | 0.215 | 3 | 11 | 0.247 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.275 | 0.289 | 0.351 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | 1B | 4 | 13 | 2 | 0.154 | 1 | 1 | 0.214 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.215 | 0.277 | 0.392 | OK |
| Harrison Bader | CF | 15 | 55 | 7 | 0.127 | 1 | 3 | 0.155 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.168 | 0.203 | 0.252 | OK |
| Eric Haase | C | 4 | 14 | 4 | 0.286 | 0 | 2 | 0.286 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.299 | 0.406 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 38 | 146 | 34 | 0.233 | 6 | 16 | 0.363 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.180 | 0.272 | 0.257 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 8 | 33 | 6 | 0.182 | 2 | 7 | 0.250 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.210 | 0.263 | 0.383 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 39 | 154 | 42 | 0.273 | 4 | 20 | 0.337 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.273 | 0.353 | 0.497 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 39 | 147 | 37 | 0.252 | 4 | 19 | 0.349 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.281 | 0.416 | 0.442 | OK |
| Will Smith | C | 28 | 111 | 30 | 0.270 | 3 | 16 | 0.328 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.327 | 0.398 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 38 | 131 | 37 | 0.282 | 11 | 17 | 0.377 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.318 | 0.537 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 40 | 150 | 49 | 0.327 | 9 | 35 | 0.368 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.312 | 0.351 | 0.713 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 36 | 129 | 32 | 0.248 | 4 | 17 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.350 | 0.330 | OK |
| Hyeseong Kim | 2B | 25 | 75 | 21 | 0.280 | 1 | 8 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.211 | 0.264 | 0.318 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Adrian Houser | Starter | 7 | 34.7 | 6.48 | 1.614 | 4.9 | 19 | 2.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 84 | 2.2 | 5 | 0 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.4 | 2.59 | 0.862 | 7.8 | 15 | 2.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 2.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.9 | 1.70 | 1.321 | 10.2 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Gage | Middle Reliever | 20 | 13.0 | 1.38 | 1.462 | 7.6 | 11 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Hentges | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 10.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joel Peguero | Middle Reliever | 3 | 3.1 | 2.90 | 0.968 | 2.9 | 1 | 0.0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0.0 | 0 | 5 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Starter | 7 | 43.2 | 3.12 | 1.019 | 8.3 | 40 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 102 | 4.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.4 | 1.75 | 0.649 | 9.4 | 16 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 17 | 11.7 | 3.85 | 1.197 | 13.1 | 17 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Blake Treinen | Middle Reliever | 14 | 10.6 | 1.70 | 1.132 | 10.2 | 12 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Klein | Middle Reliever | 12 | 14.7 | 3.06 | 1.565 | 10.4 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
LAD wins 6-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| OAK | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | x | 8 | 10 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 39 | 151 | 36 | 0.238 | 7 | 20 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.296 | 0.270 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | C | 40 | 145 | 38 | 0.262 | 4 | 18 | 0.407 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.305 | 0.369 | 0.422 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 38 | 145 | 44 | 0.303 | 11 | 29 | 0.382 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.285 | 0.391 | 0.575 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 38 | 153 | 41 | 0.268 | 6 | 30 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.310 | 0.449 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 34 | 131 | 33 | 0.252 | 1 | 16 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.196 | 0.246 | 0.302 | OK |
| José Fermín | LF | 8 | 26 | 6 | 0.231 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.283 | 0.385 | OK |
| Yohel Pozo | DH | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0.125 | 0 | 1 | 0.125 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.268 | 0.364 | OK |
| Nathan Church | CF | 30 | 111 | 28 | 0.252 | 4 | 14 | 0.282 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.297 | 0.384 | OK |
| Thomas Saggese | 3B | 16 | 55 | 8 | 0.145 | 0 | 1 | 0.203 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.128 | 0.157 | 0.190 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 39 | 143 | 37 | 0.259 | 5 | 20 | 0.414 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.304 | 0.409 | 0.469 | OK |
| Shea Langeliers | C | 36 | 149 | 50 | 0.336 | 11 | 22 | 0.394 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.374 | 0.430 | 0.715 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 38 | 145 | 30 | 0.207 | 5 | 20 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.184 | 0.261 | 0.380 | OK |
| Brent Rooker | DH | 23 | 89 | 17 | 0.191 | 5 | 18 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.275 | 0.362 | 0.540 | OK |
| Carlos Cortes | RF | 25 | 85 | 29 | 0.341 | 4 | 15 | 0.387 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.284 | 0.308 | 0.435 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 17 | 59 | 16 | 0.271 | 3 | 11 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.282 | 0.347 | 0.520 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | CF | 29 | 104 | 20 | 0.192 | 3 | 12 | 0.300 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.193 | 0.318 | 0.295 | OK |
| Darell Hernaiz | SS | 15 | 47 | 9 | 0.191 | 1 | 5 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.229 | 0.331 | 0.312 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 32 | 114 | 34 | 0.298 | 1 | 12 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.216 | 0.268 | 0.285 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andre Pallante | Starter | 7 | 37.1 | 4.37 | 1.375 | 7.0 | 29 | 3.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 74 | 3.2 | 0 | 3 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.6 | 3.07 | 1.023 | 11.8 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.6 | 4.04 | 1.410 | 9.2 | 16 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.2 | 7.61 | 2.183 | 14.6 | 23 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.2 | 3.80 | 1.408 | 9.5 | 15 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jeffrey Springs | Starter | 8 | 43.3 | 3.95 | 1.155 | 8.1 | 39 | 5.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 93 | 5.1 | 4 | 2 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 22 | 15.3 | 3.53 | 2.222 | 12.9 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Joel Kuhnel | Middle Reliever | 14 | 12.1 | 2.23 | 1.157 | 3.7 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.1 | 1.68 | 0.745 | 9.5 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
OAK wins 8-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 38 | 145 | 44 | 0.303 | 5 | 23 | 0.382 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.235 | 0.272 | 0.333 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 37 | 137 | 38 | 0.277 | 8 | 32 | 0.372 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.324 | 0.421 | 0.510 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 39 | 150 | 38 | 0.253 | 11 | 19 | 0.343 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.322 | 0.483 | OK |
| Ryan Vilade | LF | 14 | 41 | 12 | 0.293 | 1 | 8 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.260 | 0.320 | 0.418 | OK |
| Jonny DeLuca | RF | 20 | 72 | 18 | 0.250 | 1 | 7 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.290 | 0.314 | OK |
| Ben Williamson | 2B | 27 | 92 | 23 | 0.250 | 0 | 12 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.275 | 0.375 | 0.320 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 31 | 115 | 15 | 0.130 | 2 | 11 | 0.185 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.132 | 0.167 | 0.176 | OK |
| Nick Fortes | C | 25 | 86 | 25 | 0.291 | 1 | 7 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.316 | 0.334 | 0.368 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 28 | 85 | 17 | 0.200 | 0 | 7 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.217 | 0.300 | 0.339 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 37 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| George Springer | DH | 22 | 84 | 16 | 0.190 | 2 | 6 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.192 | 0.256 | 0.281 | OK |
| Myles Straw | RF | 16 | 47 | 14 | 0.298 | 1 | 3 | 0.382 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.294 | 0.380 | 0.481 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 40 | 149 | 45 | 0.302 | 2 | 17 | 0.388 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.173 | 0.252 | 0.210 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 40 | 149 | 37 | 0.248 | 10 | 26 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.284 | 0.357 | 0.517 | OK |
| Lenyn Sosa | 2B | 14 | 49 | 10 | 0.204 | 1 | 4 | 0.200 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.205 | 0.222 | 0.340 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | SS | 40 | 162 | 47 | 0.290 | 2 | 12 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.277 | 0.298 | 0.400 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 35 | 132 | 33 | 0.250 | 4 | 9 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.308 | 0.367 | 0.392 | OK |
| Davis Schneider | LF | 16 | 43 | 5 | 0.116 | 0 | 5 | 0.296 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.141 | 0.326 | 0.238 | OK |
| Brandon Valenzuela | C | 18 | 56 | 14 | 0.250 | 4 | 10 | 0.323 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.283 | 0.370 | 0.520 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shane McClanahan | Starter | 7 | 33.5 | 2.69 | 1.104 | 9.1 | 34 | 4.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 85 | 4.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.2 | 2.22 | 0.864 | 10.6 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Cole Sulser | Middle Reliever | 16 | 19.5 | 2.77 | 1.385 | 7.4 | 16 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | Middle Reliever | 7 | 5.2 | 5.19 | 1.923 | 15.6 | 9 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ian Seymour | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.2 | 4.14 | 1.447 | 12.4 | 21 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Patrick Corbin | Starter | 6 | 28.6 | 3.78 | 1.329 | 6.6 | 21 | 4.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 89 | 4.1 | 3 | 3 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.1 | 0.53 | 1.228 | 15.3 | 29 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.5 | 2.18 | 1.152 | 5.5 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.5 | 5.81 | 1.871 | 17.4 | 30 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Braydon Fisher | Middle Reliever | 20 | 17.7 | 3.56 | 1.299 | 10.2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
TB wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | RF | 41 | 156 | 38 | 0.244 | 11 | 28 | 0.392 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.279 | 0.401 | 0.535 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 29 | 105 | 27 | 0.257 | 1 | 19 | 0.282 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.302 | 0.319 | 0.469 | OK |
| Brady House | 3B | 32 | 132 | 29 | 0.220 | 5 | 18 | 0.275 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.225 | 0.275 | 0.431 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 39 | 142 | 41 | 0.289 | 9 | 36 | 0.387 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.281 | 0.340 | 0.551 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 35 | 133 | 29 | 0.218 | 3 | 16 | 0.262 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.268 | 0.334 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 40 | 158 | 40 | 0.253 | 3 | 15 | 0.324 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.336 | 0.377 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | 2B | 35 | 114 | 24 | 0.211 | 0 | 14 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.207 | 0.323 | 0.316 | OK |
| Jose Fernandez | DH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.225 | 0.322 | 0.311 | |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 21 | 69 | 14 | 0.203 | 2 | 11 | 0.222 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.273 | 0.493 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 36 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| TJ Friedl | CF | 34 | 132 | 25 | 0.189 | 2 | 7 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.150 | 0.229 | 0.230 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | 1B | 38 | 133 | 32 | 0.241 | 7 | 13 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.301 | 0.453 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 41 | 163 | 47 | 0.288 | 10 | 29 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.324 | 0.356 | 0.445 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | DH | 41 | 155 | 38 | 0.245 | 10 | 30 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.198 | 0.261 | 0.367 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 13 | 42 | 11 | 0.262 | 4 | 9 | 0.392 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.344 | 0.472 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 37 | 140 | 29 | 0.207 | 3 | 13 | 0.315 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.259 | 0.347 | 0.402 | OK |
| Will Benson | RF | 19 | 53 | 9 | 0.170 | 1 | 2 | 0.290 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.345 | 0.309 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 29 | 96 | 17 | 0.177 | 2 | 7 | 0.279 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.268 | 0.255 | OK |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3B | 31 | 101 | 14 | 0.139 | 2 | 3 | 0.194 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.256 | 0.360 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Miles Mikolas | Starter | 8 | 31.5 | 7.71 | 1.587 | 6.3 | 22 | 5.2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 78 | 5.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Gus Varland | Middle Reliever | 16 | 12.2 | 5.90 | 1.885 | 12.5 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| PJ Poulin | Middle Reliever | 20 | 15.5 | 4.06 | 1.677 | 8.1 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 12 | 23.0 | 3.91 | 1.304 | 7.0 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brady Singer | Starter | 8 | 37.4 | 5.78 | 1.684 | 6.3 | 26 | 2.2 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 79 | 2.2 | 1 | 5 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.2 | 2.96 | 1.316 | 9.5 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Graham Ashcraft | Middle Reliever | 20 | 19.5 | 1.85 | 1.282 | 11.1 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Connor Phillips | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.2 | 5.23 | 1.860 | 11.0 | 21 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.4 | 3.75 | 1.875 | 13.8 | 22 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 31 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Pierce Johnson | Middle Reliever | 18 | 12.5 | 4.32 | 1.600 | 10.8 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tejay Antone | Reliever | 3 | 3.0 | 3.00 | 0.333 | 12.0 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | - | - | - |
WAS wins 6-1