MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

May 12, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ TEX2 - 43 - 4TEX wins 4-359%enhanced_ml
CHC @ ATL6 - 75 - 6ATL wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11)51%enhanced_ml
COL @ PIT2 - 81 - 8PIT wins 8-160%enhanced_ml
DET @ NYM2 - 42 - 4NYM wins 4-255%enhanced_ml
KC @ CHW3 - 43 - 5CHW wins 5-351%enhanced_ml
LAA @ CLE3 - 53 - 4CLE wins 4-355%enhanced_ml
MIA @ MIN5 - 65 - 6MIN wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11)51%enhanced_ml
NYY @ BAL5 - 45 - 4NYY wins 5-453%enhanced_ml
PHI @ BOS3 - 43 - 5BOS wins 5-351%enhanced_ml
SD @ MIL2 - 52 - 5MIL wins 5-268%enhanced_ml
SEA @ HOU5 - 45 - 3SEA wins 5-351%enhanced_ml
SF @ LAD3 - 43 - 6LAD wins 6-352%enhanced_ml
STL @ OAK3 - 52 - 8OAK wins 8-253%enhanced_ml
TB @ TOR4 - 35 - 4TB wins 5-451%enhanced_ml
WAS @ CIN6 - 36 - 1WAS wins 6-168%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Texas Rangers

ARI 20-20 (4.25 RPG / 4.78 RA)
3 - 4
TEX 19-22 (3.63 RPG / 3.73 RA)
TEX WINS Target: ARI 2 - 4 TEX Confidence: 58.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ARI10000002037
TEX00012010x49

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.9
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-10
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-8
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 3614932 0.215 5150.264 44100 01 0.250 0.185 0.230 0.380 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 3813435 0.261 5200.361 44211 01 0.500 0.243 0.338 0.459 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 3712729 0.228 2120.342 43000 11 0.000 0.203 0.303 0.318 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 3712735 0.276 6180.331 44210 01 0.500 0.270 0.346 0.457 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 3112640 0.317 6210.338 43112 00 0.333 0.216 0.256 0.285 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 165912 0.203 040.277 44100 00 0.250 0.205 0.295 0.264 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 176112 0.197 160.265 44000 01 0.000 0.190 0.267 0.306 OK
Jose FernandezDH 269629 0.302 3120.343 44000 01 0.000 0.225 0.322 0.311 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 3102 0.200 030.200 44000 02 0.000 0.233 0.279 0.371 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 33 18 0.206

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 308217 0.207 160.313 44110 01 0.250 0.262 0.351 0.390 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 3915242 0.276 4120.358 43000 10 0.000 0.223 0.314 0.269 OK
Corey SeagerSS 4014828 0.189 7190.299 44100 01 0.250 0.108 0.251 0.194 OK
Josh Jung3B 3714246 0.324 5200.374 43211 11 0.667 0.311 0.346 0.454 OK
Evan CarterCF 3611421 0.184 5130.309 44100 01 0.250 0.164 0.312 0.364 OK
Ezequiel Duran2B 278925 0.281 2110.356 44312 01 0.750 0.247 0.320 0.413 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 11287 0.250 040.400 43000 10 0.000 0.270 0.357 0.350 OK
Jake Burger1B 3815030 0.200 5180.234 44111 01 0.250 0.153 0.193 0.231 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 165711 0.193 150.270 44000 03 0.000 0.191 0.250 0.255 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36339 44 39 0.273

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zac GallenStarter 837.44.81 1.5246.025 3.15002686 3.1 6 0
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.02111026 1.0 0 1
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.0011019 1.0 1 1
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.22110122 1.2 1 1
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 1.00110114 1.0 1 1

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
MacKenzie GoreStarter 838.65.36 1.45111.248 4.23220574 4.2 5 2
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 1619.50.92 0.4627.817 1.10000111 1.1 1 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1618.31.97 0.8204.49 0.21000117 0.2 1 0
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 1813.95.18 1.65511.718 1.13111028 1.1 0 1
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 1917.22.62 1.6287.815 1.00000111 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 4-3


Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves

CHC 27-14 (5.24 RPG / 4.1 RA)
5 - 6
ATL 28-13 (5.56 RPG / 3.44 RA)
ATL WINS Target: CHC 6 - 7 ATL Confidence: 51.1% enhanced_ml
1234567891011RH
CHC0002110100057
ATL0400000100167

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff18
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 3916144 0.273 4280.348 55111 01 0.200 0.197 0.251 0.306 OK
Michael ConfortoDH 113312 0.364 150.500 54000 11 0.000 0.331 0.422 0.583 OK
Alex Bregman3B 3915735 0.223 3120.320 55110 01 0.200 0.178 0.286 0.233 OK
Ian HappLF 3914634 0.233 9180.367 55000 01 0.000 0.233 0.361 0.442 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 259428 0.298 7160.407 53111 12 0.333 0.227 0.357 0.439 OK
Michael Busch1B 3914634 0.233 3220.345 54211 11 0.500 0.313 0.439 0.463 OK
Moisés BallesterosC 288822 0.250 6170.313 55212 00 0.400 0.155 0.229 0.325 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 3913326 0.195 6230.308 54000 11 0.000 0.188 0.246 0.270 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 4014937 0.248 4170.317 55000 02 0.000 0.275 0.360 0.476 OK
TEAM TOTALS 45407 55 410 0.175

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drake BaldwinC 4116549 0.297 10320.383 55010 01 0.000 0.229 0.350 0.430 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 4116049 0.306 8250.356 55000 01 0.000 0.225 0.275 0.326 OK
Matt Olson1B 4115947 0.296 14360.377 55211 01 0.400 0.266 0.346 0.606 OK
Michael Harris IICF 3212337 0.301 6190.326 54000 00 0.000 0.279 0.298 0.361 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 3914439 0.271 2230.331 54211 00 0.500 0.294 0.366 0.410 OK
Austin Riley3B 4015333 0.216 5240.288 55110 01 0.200 0.232 0.278 0.354 OK
Dominic SmithDH 196623 0.348 4170.380 43010 10 0.000 0.287 0.339 0.420 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 000 0.000 000.000 44000 00 0.000 0.246 0.311 0.393
Mike YastrzemskiRF 2810020 0.200 060.259 44214 00 0.500 0.198 0.221 0.245 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42397 66 14 0.179

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Colin ReaStarter 836.64.18 1.4218.635 4.25441273 4.2 2 4
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 86.32.86 1.27010.07 1.10000012 1.1 0 0
Ben BrownMiddle Reliever 1328.51.89 0.9478.527 1.0000007 1.0 0 0
Phil MatonMiddle Reliever 117.89.23 1.92315.013 0.22110125 0.2 1 1
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 1714.04.50 1.85711.618 1.10000013 1.1 0 0
Hoby MilnerReliever 1915.32.94 1.2423.56 2.00110120 - - -

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Grant HolmesStarter 736.44.45 1.3467.229 3.24332590 3.2 5 3
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 1010.20.00 0.68612.414 2.01111124 2.0 1 1
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 1716.30.55 0.9208.816 1.10000011 1.1 0 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 1917.51.03 0.51411.823 1.02110020 1.0 0 1
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 1916.43.84 1.40210.419 2.00001329 2.0 3 0
Reynaldo LópezMiddle Reliever 826.23.78 1.4508.224 1.00000110 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11)


Colorado Rockies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

COL 16-25 (4.27 RPG / 5.12 RA)
1 - 8
PIT 22-19 (5.02 RPG / 4.27 RA)
PIT WINS Target: COL 2 - 8 PIT Confidence: 60.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
COL00000001016
PIT00005300x89

COL Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed7.2
Run Diff-30
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.8
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff14
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Edouard Julien2B 279527 0.284 2120.376 44111 00 0.250 0.237 0.346 0.330 OK
Mickey MoniakCF 2911235 0.312 11200.361 44000 01 0.000 0.248 0.304 0.483 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 3514034 0.243 10160.312 44100 00 0.250 0.258 0.306 0.450 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 3714138 0.270 4200.338 44100 03 0.250 0.287 0.356 0.439 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 187018 0.257 290.342 44000 03 0.000 0.249 0.321 0.414 OK
Troy JohnstonDH 3111537 0.322 2160.376 44100 02 0.250 0.324 0.403 0.420 OK
Willi Castro3B 2910727 0.252 2130.316 44100 02 0.250 0.254 0.316 0.385 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 3613527 0.200 1100.248 32000 01 0.000 0.212 0.255 0.252 OK
Jake McCarthyLF 257521 0.280 2130.341 33100 01 0.333 0.317 0.379 0.657 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34336 11 013 0.182

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 3816442 0.256 10290.322 52110 30 0.500 0.246 0.336 0.387 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 3413335 0.263 10270.365 53112 22 0.333 0.304 0.389 0.661 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 3913935 0.252 4230.400 53111 21 0.333 0.223 0.367 0.340 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 3714141 0.291 5260.370 54011 04 0.000 0.223 0.293 0.277 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 3413443 0.321 0180.381 55311 00 0.600 0.270 0.373 0.329 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 3212825 0.195 4140.280 55000 01 0.000 0.232 0.365 0.420 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 3210527 0.257 2170.385 43110 12 0.333 0.260 0.383 0.483 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 3312432 0.258 3180.326 44112 02 0.250 0.251 0.316 0.417 OK
Henry DavisC 248013 0.162 270.264 43111 11 0.333 0.180 0.291 0.394 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42329 88 913 0.281

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael LorenzenStarter 937.67.18 1.9686.226 4.165559113 4.1 9 5
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 1415.26.51 1.8428.314 1.01334137 1.0 1 3
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1121.31.27 0.9399.322 1.01000217 1.0 2 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 1617.05.29 1.82413.225 1.21000115 1.2 1 0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Paul SkenesStarter 841.32.40 0.72610.046 5.21000881 5.2 8 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 1816.43.84 1.4025.510 1.02000220 1.0 2 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 2019.41.39 0.67012.126 1.12110020 1.1 0 1
Isaac MattsonMiddle Reliever 1915.05.40 1.8007.813 1.01000321 1.0 3 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 8-1


Detroit Tigers @ New York Mets

DET 19-22 (4.27 RPG / 4.17 RA)
2 - 4
NYM 15-25 (3.48 RPG / 4.25 RA)
NYM WINS Target: DET 2 - 4 NYM Confidence: 54.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
DET00200000026
NYM01030000x47

DET Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigleSS 3814643 0.295 2160.398 43000 10 0.000 0.188 0.334 0.235 OK
Matt VierlingCF 248519 0.224 1140.287 44100 00 0.250 0.244 0.307 0.439 OK
Colt KeithDH 279527 0.284 040.327 44000 01 0.000 0.260 0.345 0.306 OK
Riley GreeneLF 4014446 0.319 4200.420 44312 00 0.750 0.412 0.503 0.597 OK
Dillon DinglerC 3111928 0.235 6250.305 44000 02 0.000 0.179 0.228 0.303 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 196810 0.147 050.194 44210 01 0.500 0.225 0.259 0.303 OK
Gage Workman3B 000 0.000 000.000 43000 10 0.000 0.232 0.304 0.367
Spencer Torkelson1B 3813128 0.214 6150.331 43000 11 0.000 0.194 0.297 0.333 OK
Zach McKinstry2B 16529 0.173 150.259 44000 01 0.000 0.176 0.280 0.276 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 22 36 0.182

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carson BengeRF 3211023 0.209 3110.281 44000 02 0.000 0.260 0.332 0.465 OK
Bo BichetteSS 4016236 0.222 2160.269 44000 00 0.000 0.170 0.259 0.204 OK
Juan SotoLF 249023 0.256 4100.358 44000 00 0.000 0.178 0.266 0.385 OK
Mark Vientos1B 2910323 0.223 5160.270 44000 01 0.000 0.198 0.249 0.419 OK
MJ MelendezDH 154313 0.302 260.388 44211 01 0.500 0.254 0.347 0.431 OK
Brett Baty3B 3010423 0.221 1120.281 32000 01 0.000 0.210 0.319 0.315 OK
Marcus Semien2B 4014232 0.225 2130.284 33210 01 0.667 0.276 0.349 0.435 OK
AJ Smith-ShawverCF 000 0.000 000.000 33113 02 0.333 0.233 0.303 0.376
Francisco AlvarezC 3110624 0.226 490.308 33210 01 0.667 0.242 0.306 0.324 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32317 44 09 0.226

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack FlahertyStarter 832.65.80 1.71811.642 3.17440567 3.1 5 4
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 118.43.21 1.31012.912 1.00000010 1.0 0 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 1817.70.51 1.4126.613 1.20000320 1.2 3 0
Burch SmithMiddle Reliever 811.23.21 1.42912.916 0.10000113 0.1 1 0
Brant HurterMiddle Reliever 1717.72.03 1.0177.615 1.2000008 1.2 0 0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Freddy PeraltaStarter 841.73.24 1.2479.343 3.13223481 3.1 4 2
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 1411.54.70 1.47816.421 1.11000012 1.1 0 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 1614.74.90 1.2939.816 0.2000007 0.2 0 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 1612.91.40 1.00812.618 1.20000014 1.2 0 0
Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever 1714.73.06 1.3618.614 1.01000112 1.0 1 0
Craig KimbrelMiddle Reliever 108.47.50 1.90512.912 1.01000117 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 4-2


Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox

KC 19-22 (4.12 RPG / 4.46 RA)
3 - 5
CHW 19-21 (4.28 RPG / 4.62 RA)
CHW WINS Target: KC 3 - 4 CHW Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
KC00000030038
CHW00000000557

KC Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 3815043 0.287 3160.351 44000 01 0.000 0.370 0.439 0.514 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 4116249 0.302 5190.372 43100 10 0.333 0.352 0.407 0.626 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 3814429 0.201 5190.283 44100 00 0.250 0.252 0.293 0.408 OK
Salvador PerezC 3915229 0.191 5170.233 44200 00 0.500 0.142 0.216 0.204 OK
Carter JensenDH 3411626 0.224 6180.319 44111 00 0.250 0.156 0.263 0.246 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 3311728 0.239 360.315 44111 02 0.250 0.221 0.262 0.374 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 3110525 0.238 3130.352 44111 01 0.250 0.278 0.358 0.464 OK
Michael Massey2B 237017 0.243 3120.257 44100 03 0.250 0.272 0.295 0.579 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 319526 0.274 3100.337 44000 02 0.000 0.214 0.278 0.278 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36358 33 19 0.229

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 206817 0.250 190.366 43110 10 0.333 0.267 0.366 0.350 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 3813932 0.230 15290.365 44000 01 0.000 0.233 0.346 0.533 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 3713631 0.228 9220.363 44100 01 0.250 0.254 0.383 0.568 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 3814231 0.218 10280.319 44000 01 0.000 0.200 0.268 0.446 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 3714240 0.282 250.352 43110 12 0.333 0.324 0.371 0.518 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 2710426 0.250 2140.279 44100 00 0.250 0.312 0.339 0.372 OK
Jarred KelenicRF 7206 0.300 010.364 44111 00 0.250 0.279 0.346 0.365 OK
Tristan PetersCF 278021 0.262 050.322 43110 12 0.333 0.248 0.308 0.358 OK
Drew RomoC 8234 0.174 340.387 44114 01 0.250 0.192 0.304 0.422 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36337 55 38 0.212

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Stephen KolekStarter 16.04.50 0.6674.53 4.22222575 4.2 5 2
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 1715.43.51 1.4948.214 1.11000118 1.1 1 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 1514.23.80 1.2689.515 1.01000113 1.0 1 0
Nick MearsMiddle Reliever 1712.83.52 1.4067.711 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 1614.72.45 0.81612.921 0.22331136 0.2 1 3

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Erick FeddeStarter 736.63.93 1.1755.924 5.12000677 5.1 6 0
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 1.15220132 1.1 1 2
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.00001020 1.0 0 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 1.11110212 1.1 2 1

Game Summary

CHW wins 5-3


Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Guardians

LAA 16-26 (4.26 RPG / 4.95 RA)
3 - 4
CLE 22-21 (4.19 RPG / 4.16 RA)
CLE WINS Target: LAA 3 - 5 CLE Confidence: 54.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAA001002000310
CLE00002200x44

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.9
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff-18
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 4216737 0.222 6180.325 55111 02 0.200 0.224 0.298 0.381 OK
Mike TroutCF 4114536 0.248 11230.414 54200 10 0.500 0.213 0.314 0.304 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 3815139 0.258 3200.309 44200 00 0.500 0.273 0.310 0.367 OK
Jorge SolerDH 3813731 0.226 8280.327 44000 01 0.000 0.207 0.330 0.350 OK
Vaughn Grissom2B 166017 0.283 190.353 44111 02 0.250 0.230 0.296 0.350 OK
Yoán Moncada3B 289416 0.170 380.291 44000 01 0.000 0.188 0.240 0.239 OK
Jo AdellRF 4216546 0.279 6240.318 44200 00 0.500 0.344 0.394 0.670 OK
Josh LoweLF 299816 0.163 4100.210 44211 02 0.500 0.166 0.187 0.243 OK
Omar MartinezC 000 0.000 000.000 44000 00 0.000 0.233 0.299 0.380
TEAM TOTALS 383710 33 18 0.270

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanLF 3915231 0.204 190.307 44000 02 0.000 0.177 0.314 0.237 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 3513539 0.289 6250.370 43000 10 0.000 0.298 0.370 0.448 OK
José Ramírez3B 4315834 0.215 6160.344 44110 02 0.250 0.236 0.368 0.293 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 3010620 0.189 190.275 42011 10 0.000 0.238 0.323 0.335 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 12388 0.211 160.423 43000 10 0.000 0.248 0.415 0.420 OK
Daniel SchneemannCF 3010529 0.276 4150.356 32000 10 0.000 0.228 0.341 0.316 OK
Angel MartínezRF 3011631 0.267 5160.315 33211 00 0.667 0.177 0.243 0.252 OK
Patrick BaileyC 130 0.000 000.000 33000 01 0.000 0.162 0.193 0.231
Brayan RocchioSS 4113738 0.277 3210.357 33112 01 0.333 0.322 0.400 0.399 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32274 44 46 0.148

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walbert UrenaStarter 621.43.36 1.6369.322 4.244444112 4.2 4 4
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 1418.84.79 1.17012.927 1.20000113 1.2 1 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 1416.23.89 1.29611.721 1.20000113 1.2 1 0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Slade CecconiStarter 839.66.36 1.6417.031 4.26221591 4.2 5 2
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 1818.13.48 1.27111.924 1.12110021 1.1 0 1
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever 2013.62.65 1.02919.229 0.21000121 0.2 1 0
Matt FestaMiddle Reliever 1815.76.31 1.52911.520 1.11000115 1.1 1 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 106.68.18 2.12110.98 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-3


Miami Marlins @ Minnesota Twins

MIA 19-22 (4.29 RPG / 4.37 RA)
5 - 6
MIN 18-23 (4.73 RPG / 5.02 RA)
MIN WINS Target: MIA 5 - 6 MIN Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
1234567891011RH
MIA00010031000510
MIN0000004010165

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff-11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 4014847 0.318 4140.406 55211 01 0.400 0.247 0.329 0.493 OK
Liam Hicks1B 3111136 0.324 9350.383 54111 11 0.250 0.327 0.411 0.624 OK
Otto LopezSS 3915854 0.342 4170.371 55112 01 0.200 0.348 0.363 0.526 OK
Kyle StowersRF 186816 0.235 130.333 55210 01 0.400 0.230 0.326 0.387 OK
Connor Norby3B 3511426 0.228 3120.341 55000 01 0.000 0.225 0.360 0.320 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 3814526 0.179 2120.306 55000 01 0.000 0.183 0.313 0.344 OK
Christopher MorelDH 8275 0.185 010.267 55200 01 0.400 0.192 0.252 0.267 OK
Joe MackC 6194 0.211 010.250 54211 00 0.500 0.244 0.299 0.384 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 186511 0.169 090.250 55000 01 0.000 0.213 0.271 0.262 OK
TEAM TOTALS 454310 55 18 0.233

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 3816242 0.259 13210.312 55000 01 0.000 0.300 0.342 0.658 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 279225 0.272 1110.385 53010 23 0.000 0.240 0.300 0.331 OK
Ryan JeffersC 2810331 0.301 5230.397 55110 02 0.200 0.306 0.384 0.569 OK
Josh BellDH 3714030 0.214 3190.288 54000 12 0.000 0.192 0.214 0.233 OK
Austin MartinRF 258529 0.341 170.467 54011 10 0.000 0.339 0.411 0.415 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 3914433 0.229 1150.315 54111 11 0.250 0.230 0.387 0.334 OK
Kody Clemens1B 258619 0.221 390.337 55113 00 0.200 0.235 0.374 0.387 OK
Brooks LeeSS 3613336 0.271 5220.322 44211 01 0.500 0.301 0.338 0.394 OK
Royce Lewis3B 268815 0.170 3120.267 44000 02 0.000 0.151 0.225 0.233 OK
TEAM TOTALS 43385 66 512 0.132

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eury PérezStarter 841.15.04 1.4369.945 4.10220460 4.1 4 2
Tyler PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1222.51.20 1.3789.624 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 1714.63.70 1.5759.916 1.23443247 1.2 2 4
John KingMiddle Reliever 1912.70.71 0.70910.615 1.00001123 1.0 1 0
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 1711.45.53 1.66713.417 0.21001120 0.2 1 0
Josh EknessReliever 43.12.90 0.9685.82 2.11000329 - - -

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bailey OberStarter 842.34.26 1.2066.832 4.25110184 4.2 1 1
Justin TopaMiddle Reliever 2113.59.33 2.2968.713 2.13331128 2.1 1 3
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 1716.25.00 1.7288.916 1.02110225 1.0 2 1
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 1613.33.38 1.7298.813 1.20000223 1.2 2 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever 915.05.40 1.6679.015 1.10000216 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

MIN wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11)


New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles

NYY 26-16 (5.17 RPG / 3.45 RA)
5 - 4
BAL 19-23 (4.38 RPG / 5.33 RA)
NYY WINS Target: NYY 5 - 4 BAL Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYY00040100055
BAL00003010048

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff20
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak4L

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-23
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Paul Goldschmidt1B 145012 0.240 370.333 55000 02 0.000 0.279 0.346 0.554 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 4215040 0.267 16300.402 43010 11 0.000 0.250 0.380 0.537 OK
Ben RiceDH 3312137 0.306 12270.414 43210 10 0.667 0.253 0.296 0.574 OK
Cody BellingerLF 4014441 0.285 5260.394 43010 10 0.000 0.327 0.460 0.557 OK
Amed Rosario2B 196217 0.274 4130.333 43000 11 0.000 0.266 0.332 0.414 OK
Trent GrishamCF 3412321 0.171 3180.302 43000 11 0.000 0.217 0.301 0.346 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 289317 0.183 290.240 44211 00 0.500 0.179 0.202 0.327 OK
Max SchuemannSS 272 0.286 010.286 44114 00 0.250 0.252 0.302 0.428 OK
Austin WellsC 319517 0.179 350.307 44000 02 0.000 0.146 0.226 0.220 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37325 55 57 0.156

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gunnar HendersonSS 4117536 0.206 9210.263 54210 11 0.500 0.216 0.254 0.298 OK
Taylor WardLF 4114437 0.257 1120.422 54000 10 0.000 0.099 0.357 0.139 OK
Adley RutschmanC 249427 0.287 5190.343 44213 00 0.500 0.271 0.340 0.513 OK
Pete Alonso1B 4215733 0.210 8220.307 44311 00 0.750 0.181 0.217 0.393 OK
Samuel BasalloDH 2910928 0.257 5130.319 44110 02 0.250 0.332 0.370 0.552 OK
Tyler O'NeillRF 15458 0.178 150.339 44000 03 0.000 0.170 0.317 0.231 OK
Dylan BeaversCF 299724 0.247 2110.327 43000 12 0.000 0.304 0.407 0.487 OK
Coby Mayo3B 3110217 0.167 4140.234 44000 01 0.000 0.191 0.241 0.349 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 3412531 0.248 6240.269 44000 02 0.000 0.201 0.238 0.287 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 44 311 0.229

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Will WarrenStarter 839.83.62 1.25612.053 3.23002580 3.2 5 0
David BednarMiddle Reliever 1715.64.04 1.53812.121 0.23331231 0.2 2 3
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 1910.24.41 2.35320.323 1.20000111 1.2 1 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 1914.31.26 0.9794.47 1.02110020 1.0 0 1
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 2217.72.54 1.58211.723 1.00000318 1.0 3 0
Camilo DovalMiddle Reliever 1813.16.87 1.37411.717 1.00000010 1.0 0 0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trevor RogersStarter 629.44.90 1.4978.327 3.13223488 3.1 4 2
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 2017.60.51 0.45511.222 1.00000012 1.0 0 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 1811.21.61 0.6258.811 1.01111017 1.0 0 1
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 74.516.00 3.55614.07 1.21111020 1.2 0 1
Keegan AkinMiddle Reliever 76.210.16 1.77410.27 1.00110112 1.0 1 1
Dietrich EnnsMiddle Reliever 88.82.05 1.59111.211 1.00000217 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-4


Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox

PHI 19-22 (4.15 RPG / 4.93 RA)
3 - 5
BOS 17-23 (3.9 RPG / 4.2 RA)
BOS WINS Target: PHI 3 - 4 BOS Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PHI21000000035
BOS04000100x510

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff13
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-3
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 4016740 0.240 4130.289 44110 02 0.250 0.218 0.235 0.273 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 4115435 0.227 16270.353 44112 01 0.250 0.284 0.335 0.762 OK
Bryce Harper1B 4014641 0.281 10240.376 44000 01 0.000 0.319 0.419 0.715 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 3914534 0.234 3120.302 44100 00 0.250 0.248 0.292 0.398 OK
Brandon MarshLF 3413046 0.354 4210.379 44000 02 0.000 0.444 0.475 0.567 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 238120 0.247 180.303 33000 01 0.000 0.235 0.259 0.332 OK
Bryson Stott2B 3111524 0.209 3140.260 33000 00 0.000 0.231 0.277 0.494 OK
Alec Bohm3B 3613224 0.182 3200.250 33100 00 0.333 0.272 0.336 0.543 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 3311232 0.286 190.355 33111 00 0.333 0.334 0.396 0.530 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32325 33 07 0.156

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 3313727 0.197 4180.257 54213 10 0.500 0.195 0.258 0.328 OK
Mickey Gasper1B 143 0.750 010.750 55312 00 0.600 0.304 0.358 0.495 MODERATE
Wilyer AbreuRF 3914643 0.295 6180.377 55210 02 0.400 0.278 0.374 0.509 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 175915 0.254 040.362 42000 20 0.000 0.235 0.291 0.294 OK
Trevor StorySS 3815531 0.200 2180.236 44000 02 0.000 0.195 0.237 0.266 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 3512734 0.268 3140.336 44110 00 0.250 0.278 0.340 0.488 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 309821 0.214 180.291 43000 00 0.000 0.208 0.284 0.253 OK
Carlos NarváezC 247716 0.208 230.274 44210 00 0.500 0.163 0.305 0.306 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 3612622 0.175 1130.257 43000 10 0.000 0.204 0.256 0.272 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393410 55 44 0.294

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zack WheelerStarter 317.13.16 0.9949.518 2.05222151 2.0 1 2
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 109.21.96 1.08713.714 0.20000113 0.2 1 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 1715.54.65 1.41910.518 1.12001020 1.1 0 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 1810.36.99 2.52415.718 1.01110015 1.0 0 1
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 1613.61.99 1.1767.311 1.02110122 1.0 1 1
Tanner BanksMiddle Reliever 1515.55.23 2.06512.221 0.10110011 0.1 0 1
Chase ShugartReliever 1211.82.29 1.18610.714 1.20001120 - - -

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jovani MoránStarter 1119.82.73 1.2129.120 3.14330363 3.1 3 3
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1312.20.74 0.82011.816 1.2000009 1.2 0 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 1515.13.58 1.25811.319 1.01000118 1.0 1 0
Zack KellyMiddle Reliever 1411.94.54 1.5139.112 1.00000012 1.0 0 0
Greg WeissertMiddle Reliever 1712.35.85 1.78913.218 1.00000212 1.0 2 0
Tyler SamaniegoMiddle Reliever 1211.30.00 1.2398.811 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-3


San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers

SD 24-16 (4.25 RPG / 4.17 RA)
2 - 5
MIL 22-16 (5.13 RPG / 3.71 RA)
MIL WINS Target: SD 2 - 5 MIL Confidence: 68.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SD00200000027
MIL00302000x58

SD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-5
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff24
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak4W

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson MerrillCF 3814934 0.228 4180.303 44100 02 0.250 0.231 0.354 0.340 OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 3814435 0.243 0140.321 44211 01 0.500 0.218 0.310 0.275 OK
Manny Machado3B 3813626 0.191 6200.294 43111 11 0.333 0.124 0.208 0.286 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 2710029 0.290 2100.317 44100 01 0.250 0.234 0.252 0.411 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 3814137 0.262 6210.338 44000 01 0.000 0.240 0.294 0.401 OK
Gavin Sheets1B 2910220 0.196 390.255 43000 11 0.000 0.187 0.265 0.333 OK
Nick CastellanosRF 196613 0.197 1110.239 44100 01 0.250 0.223 0.251 0.331 OK
Ramón LaureanoLF 3412929 0.225 5190.306 44100 01 0.250 0.144 0.289 0.312 OK
Freddy FerminC 216611 0.167 030.269 44000 03 0.000 0.174 0.239 0.239 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 22 212 0.206

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brice Turang2B 3513139 0.298 6230.422 53210 21 0.667 0.331 0.415 0.569 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 5228 0.364 030.417 55213 02 0.400 0.297 0.355 0.442 OK
Christian YelichDH 134915 0.306 060.370 43000 11 0.000 0.261 0.342 0.369 OK
William ContrerasC 3514242 0.296 3260.369 44000 02 0.000 0.291 0.364 0.363 OK
Jake Bauers1B 3011330 0.265 6200.346 44212 00 0.500 0.275 0.372 0.478 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 289822 0.224 1220.347 44000 04 0.000 0.172 0.255 0.234 OK
Sal FrelickRF 3111223 0.205 380.294 43110 10 0.333 0.236 0.308 0.328 OK
David Hamilton3B 299021 0.233 070.330 43000 12 0.000 0.210 0.261 0.264 OK
Joey OrtizSS 258115 0.185 090.256 43110 10 0.333 0.172 0.216 0.240 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38328 55 612 0.250

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bradgley RodriguezStarter 1716.42.20 1.2207.714 3.24334595 3.2 5 3
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 1818.20.99 0.65918.838 1.11221120 1.1 1 2
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 1311.31.59 0.8854.05 0.21001224 0.2 2 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 1817.56.69 1.54313.426 1.11000221 1.1 2 0
Jeremiah EstradaMiddle Reliever 119.74.64 1.23714.816 1.01000215 1.0 2 0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon SproatStarter 728.86.25 1.6329.430 4.16220891 4.1 8 2
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 1612.74.25 1.18110.615 1.21001125 1.2 1 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 1923.22.33 1.46615.941 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 1414.03.21 1.14310.316 1.00001016 1.0 0 0
DL HallMiddle Reliever 1716.22.22 1.48111.721 1.00000216 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-2


Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

SEA 20-22 (4.05 RPG / 3.95 RA)
5 - 3
HOU 16-26 (4.69 RPG / 5.55 RA)
SEA WINS Target: SEA 5 - 4 HOU Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SEA30020000057
HOU000000300310

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brendan Donovan3B 207018 0.257 380.369 55312 00 0.600 0.199 0.275 0.271 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 4216646 0.277 7190.341 54110 11 0.250 0.342 0.382 0.714 OK
Josh Naylor1B 3915338 0.248 5200.310 55110 01 0.200 0.317 0.357 0.474 OK
Cal RaleighC 3815123 0.152 7170.235 43113 10 0.333 0.070 0.131 0.143 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 4215143 0.285 3130.371 44000 01 0.000 0.327 0.393 0.396 OK
Luke RaleyRF 299424 0.255 7210.314 44000 03 0.000 0.221 0.296 0.647 OK
J.P. CrawfordSS 3311623 0.198 4110.354 42000 21 0.000 0.173 0.310 0.268 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 267320 0.274 3120.341 44000 01 0.000 0.227 0.316 0.310 OK
Cole Young2B 4214638 0.260 3220.335 43110 11 0.333 0.229 0.322 0.337 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39347 55 59 0.206

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jose Altuve2B 3814938 0.255 390.335 55100 01 0.200 0.277 0.322 0.362 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 4215649 0.314 13290.416 55212 01 0.400 0.235 0.315 0.433 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 3613136 0.275 3170.367 54100 11 0.250 0.306 0.374 0.398 OK
Christian Walker1B 4115142 0.278 9270.349 54210 11 0.500 0.170 0.233 0.283 OK
Cam SmithRF 3913628 0.206 3150.306 44100 00 0.250 0.153 0.283 0.204 OK
Zach DezenzoLF 261 0.167 120.167 43000 10 0.000 0.231 0.282 0.440 OK
Braden ShewmakeSS 6216 0.286 220.286 44000 02 0.000 0.278 0.314 0.501 OK
Brice MatthewsCF 258217 0.207 4120.258 44200 00 0.500 0.198 0.236 0.419 OK
Christian VázquezC 186219 0.306 3120.368 44111 00 0.250 0.209 0.264 0.368 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403710 33 36 0.270

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryan WooStarter 847.04.02 1.0007.338 4.250024100 4.2 4 0
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 1715.35.88 1.43815.326 2.04331026 2.0 0 3
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 2116.42.74 1.4639.317 1.10000010 1.1 0 0
Cooper CriswellMiddle Reliever 1417.12.11 0.8198.416 1.01000220 1.0 2 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tatsuya ImaiStarter 37.58.40 2.40015.613 2.254455106 2.2 5 4
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 1414.83.65 1.4869.115 1.20000111 1.2 1 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 1411.510.17 2.52215.720 1.22110012 1.2 0 1
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 1514.64.93 1.3018.614 1.00000211 1.0 2 0
Kai-Wei TengMiddle Reliever 1523.23.49 1.2078.923 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
AJ BlubaughMiddle Reliever 1622.65.18 1.5048.421 1.0000009 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-3


San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

SF 17-24 (3.39 RPG / 4.41 RA)
3 - 6
LAD 24-17 (5.02 RPG / 3.49 RA)
LAD WINS Target: SF 3 - 4 LAD Confidence: 52.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SF00002001037
LAD100000005610

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff-23
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jung Hoo LeeRF 4015241 0.270 2110.317 55000 00 0.000 0.235 0.275 0.300 OK
Luis Arraez2B 3815147 0.311 0140.342 53212 11 0.667 0.306 0.352 0.406 OK
Casey Schmitt3B 3412637 0.294 6180.348 55000 02 0.000 0.253 0.320 0.435 OK
Rafael DeversDH 4115437 0.240 5180.292 55210 00 0.400 0.343 0.416 0.755 OK
Heliot RamosLF 3814841 0.277 4190.312 44000 02 0.000 0.308 0.354 0.533 OK
Willy AdamesSS 4016335 0.215 3110.247 43111 11 0.333 0.275 0.289 0.351 OK
Bryce Eldridge1B 4132 0.154 110.214 43100 12 0.333 0.215 0.277 0.392 OK
Harrison BaderCF 15557 0.127 130.155 43100 11 0.333 0.168 0.203 0.252 OK
Eric HaaseC 4144 0.286 020.286 43000 11 0.000 0.258 0.299 0.406 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40347 33 510 0.206

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 3814634 0.233 6160.363 55312 01 0.600 0.180 0.272 0.257 OK
Mookie BettsSS 8336 0.182 270.250 54310 10 0.750 0.210 0.263 0.383 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 3915442 0.273 4200.337 54113 11 0.250 0.273 0.353 0.497 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 3914737 0.252 4190.349 43000 11 0.000 0.281 0.416 0.442 OK
Will SmithC 2811130 0.270 3160.328 43000 10 0.000 0.279 0.327 0.398 OK
Max Muncy3B 3813137 0.282 11170.377 44000 01 0.000 0.257 0.318 0.537 OK
Andy PagesCF 4015049 0.327 9350.368 43110 00 0.333 0.312 0.351 0.713 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 3612932 0.248 4170.329 44110 02 0.250 0.251 0.350 0.330 OK
Hyeseong Kim2B 257521 0.280 180.345 44111 01 0.250 0.211 0.264 0.318 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393410 66 47 0.294

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Adrian HouserStarter 734.76.48 1.6144.919 2.22003584 2.2 5 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 1917.42.59 0.8627.815 2.12001229 2.1 2 0
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 1715.91.70 1.32110.218 1.00000011 1.0 0 0
Matt GageMiddle Reliever 2013.01.38 1.4627.611 1.01000017 1.0 0 0
Sam HentgesMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 10.0000.00 1.0011008 1.0 0 1
Joel PegueroMiddle Reliever 33.12.90 0.9682.91 0.05550017 0.0 0 5

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Yoshinobu YamamotoStarter 743.23.12 1.0198.340 4.232236102 4.2 6 2
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 1815.41.75 0.6499.416 1.11001222 1.1 2 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 1711.73.85 1.19713.117 0.10000218 0.1 2 0
Blake TreinenMiddle Reliever 1410.61.70 1.13210.212 1.22111026 1.2 0 1
Will KleinMiddle Reliever 1214.73.06 1.56510.417 1.01000013 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-3


St. Louis Cardinals @ Oakland Athletics

STL 23-17 (4.65 RPG / 4.58 RA)
2 - 8
OAK 21-19 (4.4 RPG / 4.55 RA)
OAK WINS Target: STL 3 - 5 OAK Confidence: 52.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
STL10000100024
OAK22001003x810

STL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff2
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 3915136 0.238 7200.354 44000 00 0.000 0.197 0.296 0.270 OK
Iván HerreraC 4014538 0.262 4180.407 44100 00 0.250 0.305 0.369 0.422 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 3814544 0.303 11290.382 43111 10 0.333 0.285 0.391 0.575 OK
Alec Burleson1B 3815341 0.268 6300.339 44000 01 0.000 0.260 0.310 0.449 OK
Masyn WinnSS 3413133 0.252 1160.320 44211 00 0.500 0.196 0.246 0.302 OK
José FermínLF 8266 0.231 120.250 43000 12 0.000 0.235 0.283 0.385 OK
Yohel PozoDH 281 0.125 010.125 44000 03 0.000 0.219 0.268 0.364 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 3011128 0.252 4140.282 32000 00 0.000 0.261 0.297 0.384 OK
Thomas Saggese3B 16558 0.145 010.203 33000 01 0.000 0.128 0.157 0.190 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 22 27 0.129

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Kurtz1B 3914337 0.259 5200.414 55110 01 0.200 0.304 0.409 0.469 OK
Shea LangeliersC 3614950 0.336 11220.394 44000 00 0.000 0.374 0.430 0.715 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 3814530 0.207 5200.293 44112 02 0.250 0.184 0.261 0.380 OK
Brent RookerDH 238917 0.191 5180.275 44311 00 0.750 0.275 0.362 0.540 OK
Carlos CortesRF 258529 0.341 4150.387 43010 10 0.000 0.284 0.308 0.435 OK
Zack Gelof3B 175916 0.271 3110.328 44110 01 0.250 0.282 0.347 0.520 OK
Lawrence ButlerCF 2910420 0.192 3120.300 43110 10 0.333 0.193 0.318 0.295 OK
Darell HernaizSS 15479 0.191 150.309 44215 01 0.500 0.229 0.331 0.312 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 3211434 0.298 1120.359 43110 10 0.333 0.216 0.268 0.285 OK
TEAM TOTALS 373410 88 35 0.294

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andre PallanteStarter 737.14.37 1.3757.029 3.26331074 3.2 0 3
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 1917.63.07 1.02311.823 1.11110115 1.1 1 1
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 1915.64.04 1.4109.216 0.11000116 0.1 1 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 1914.27.61 2.18314.623 1.20110215 1.2 2 1
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 1814.23.80 1.4089.515 1.02332128 1.0 1 3

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jeffrey SpringsStarter 843.33.95 1.1558.139 5.14222493 5.1 4 2
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 2215.33.53 2.22212.922 1.10000113 1.1 1 0
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 1412.12.23 1.1573.75 1.00000110 1.0 1 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 1716.11.68 0.7459.517 1.10000112 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

OAK wins 8-2


Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

TB 27-13 (4.47 RPG / 3.9 RA)
5 - 4
TOR 18-23 (4.12 RPG / 4.49 RA)
TB WINS Target: TB 4 - 3 TOR Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TB010020002510
TOR00100000346

TB Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed1.8
Run Diff24
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 3814544 0.303 5230.382 55110 01 0.200 0.235 0.272 0.333 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 3713738 0.277 8320.372 55214 00 0.400 0.324 0.421 0.510 OK
Junior Caminero3B 3915038 0.253 11190.343 55000 01 0.000 0.226 0.322 0.483 OK
Ryan ViladeLF 144112 0.293 180.341 44211 00 0.500 0.260 0.320 0.418 OK
Jonny DeLucaRF 207218 0.250 170.299 44100 01 0.250 0.227 0.290 0.314 OK
Ben Williamson2B 279223 0.250 0120.337 43110 10 0.333 0.275 0.375 0.320 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 3111515 0.130 2110.185 43110 10 0.333 0.132 0.167 0.176 OK
Nick FortesC 258625 0.291 170.307 44100 00 0.250 0.316 0.334 0.368 OK
Taylor WallsSS 288517 0.200 070.299 44100 01 0.250 0.217 0.300 0.339 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393710 55 24 0.270

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 228416 0.190 260.277 44111 01 0.250 0.192 0.256 0.281 OK
Myles StrawRF 164714 0.298 130.382 44110 00 0.250 0.294 0.380 0.481 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 4014945 0.302 2170.388 44000 01 0.000 0.173 0.252 0.210 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 4014937 0.248 10260.329 44110 03 0.250 0.284 0.357 0.517 OK
Lenyn Sosa2B 144910 0.204 140.200 44100 02 0.250 0.205 0.222 0.340 OK
Ernie ClementSS 4016247 0.290 2120.310 44100 00 0.250 0.277 0.298 0.400 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 3513233 0.250 490.322 44113 01 0.250 0.308 0.367 0.392 OK
Davis SchneiderLF 16435 0.116 050.296 43000 11 0.000 0.141 0.326 0.238 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 185614 0.250 4100.323 32000 10 0.000 0.283 0.370 0.520 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 44 29 0.182

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane McClanahanStarter 733.52.69 1.1049.134 4.22112585 4.2 5 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 1816.22.22 0.86410.619 1.10000214 1.1 2 0
Cole SulserMiddle Reliever 1619.52.77 1.3857.416 0.11000216 0.1 2 0
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 75.25.19 1.92315.69 1.20000014 1.2 0 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 1615.24.14 1.44712.421 1.03330021 1.0 0 3

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Patrick CorbinStarter 628.63.78 1.3296.621 4.15331389 4.1 3 3
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 1917.10.53 1.22815.329 1.02000018 1.0 0 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 1816.52.18 1.1525.510 1.00000112 1.0 1 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 1815.55.81 1.87117.430 1.21001024 1.2 0 0
Braydon FisherMiddle Reliever 2017.73.56 1.29910.220 1.02220020 1.0 0 2

Game Summary

TB wins 5-4


Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds

WAS 19-22 (5.29 RPG / 5.61 RA)
6 - 1
CIN 22-19 (4.0 RPG / 4.8 RA)
WAS WINS Target: WAS 6 - 3 CIN Confidence: 68.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
WAS10400010069
CIN00000000114

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed6.1
Run Diff-30
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 4115638 0.244 11280.392 55110 02 0.200 0.279 0.401 0.535 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 2910527 0.257 1190.282 55100 00 0.200 0.302 0.319 0.469 OK
Brady House3B 3213229 0.220 5180.275 54212 11 0.500 0.225 0.275 0.431 OK
CJ AbramsSS 3914241 0.289 9360.387 53211 20 0.667 0.281 0.340 0.551 OK
Jacob YoungCF 3513329 0.218 3160.262 54000 11 0.000 0.210 0.268 0.334 OK
Daylen LileLF 4015840 0.253 3150.324 54000 11 0.000 0.254 0.336 0.377 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 3511424 0.211 0140.321 43111 11 0.333 0.207 0.323 0.316 OK
Jose FernandezDH 000 0.000 000.000 44211 01 0.500 0.225 0.322 0.311
Keibert RuizC 216914 0.203 2110.222 44011 00 0.000 0.252 0.273 0.493 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42369 66 67 0.250

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
TJ FriedlCF 3413225 0.189 270.272 44000 00 0.000 0.150 0.229 0.230 OK
Spencer Steer1B 3813332 0.241 7130.315 44000 00 0.000 0.235 0.301 0.453 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 4116347 0.288 10290.354 44211 01 0.500 0.324 0.356 0.445 OK
Sal StewartDH 4115538 0.245 10300.328 44100 01 0.250 0.198 0.261 0.367 OK
JJ BledayLF 134211 0.262 490.392 43000 10 0.000 0.241 0.344 0.472 OK
Matt McLain2B 3714029 0.207 3130.315 33100 01 0.333 0.259 0.347 0.402 OK
Will BensonRF 19539 0.170 120.290 33000 01 0.000 0.212 0.345 0.309 OK
Tyler StephensonC 299617 0.177 270.279 33000 00 0.000 0.193 0.268 0.255 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 3110114 0.139 230.194 33000 00 0.000 0.212 0.256 0.360 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32314 11 14 0.129

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Miles MikolasStarter 831.57.71 1.5876.322 5.23001278 5.2 2 0
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 1612.25.90 1.88512.517 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
PJ PoulinMiddle Reliever 2015.54.06 1.6778.114 1.1000009 1.1 0 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1223.03.91 1.3047.018 1.01110013 1.0 0 1

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brady SingerStarter 837.45.78 1.6846.326 2.28552179 2.2 1 5
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 1615.22.96 1.3169.516 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Graham AshcraftMiddle Reliever 2019.51.85 1.28211.124 1.10000216 1.1 2 0
Connor PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1817.25.23 1.86011.021 0.20000013 0.2 0 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 1914.43.75 1.87513.822 1.11112131 1.1 1 1
Pierce JohnsonMiddle Reliever 1812.54.32 1.60010.815 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Tejay AntoneReliever 33.03.00 0.33312.04 1.00001219 - - -

Game Summary

WAS wins 6-1