MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

May 9, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
ATL @ LAD2 - 32 - 3LAD wins 3-257%enhanced_ml
CHC @ TEX8 - 28 - 2CHC wins 8-279%enhanced_ml
COL @ PHI6 - 46 - 4COL wins 6-456%enhanced_ml
DET @ KC3 - 43 - 4KC wins 4-357%enhanced_ml
HOU @ CIN4 - 14 - 1HOU wins 4-171%enhanced_ml
LAA @ TOR1 - 41 - 4TOR wins 4-158%enhanced_ml
MIN @ CLE4 - 54 - 5CLE wins 5-462%enhanced_ml
NYM @ ARI6 - 16 - 1NYM wins 6-158%enhanced_ml
NYY @ MIL4 - 54 - 5MIL wins 5-451%enhanced_ml
OAK @ BAL7 - 47 - 4OAK wins 7-470%enhanced_ml
PIT @ SF6 - 06 - 0PIT wins 6-077%enhanced_ml
SEA @ CHW6 - 86 - 8CHW wins 8-6 (Extra Innings - 10)56%enhanced_ml
STL @ SD3 - 23 - 2STL wins 3-257%enhanced_ml
TB @ BOS4 - 34 - 3TB wins 4-356%enhanced_ml
WAS @ MIA4 - 34 - 3WAS wins 4-364%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers

ATL 26-13 (5.49 RPG / 3.51 RA)
2 - 3
LAD 24-14 (5.24 RPG / 3.16 RA)
LAD WINS Target: ATL 2 - 3 LAD Confidence: 56.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ATL00000000225
LAD00120000x39

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Mauricio DubónLF 3713536 0.267 2200.327 44000 00 0.000 0.231 0.326 0.323 OK
Drake BaldwinDH 3915847 0.297 9300.380 43100 11 0.333 0.239 0.337 0.410 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 3915147 0.311 8230.363 44210 01 0.500 0.261 0.351 0.488 OK
Matt Olson1B 3915044 0.293 13330.379 43000 11 0.000 0.291 0.407 0.755 OK
Austin Riley3B 3814531 0.214 5230.286 44112 01 0.250 0.231 0.250 0.417 OK
Michael Harris IICF 3011435 0.307 6180.333 44100 01 0.250 0.333 0.340 0.434 OK
Sean MurphyC 261 0.167 000.167 44000 02 0.000 0.167 0.167 0.167 OK
Eli WhiteRF 15439 0.209 270.239 33000 03 0.000 0.241 0.276 0.433 OK
Jorge MateoSS 144412 0.273 130.304 33000 01 0.000 0.282 0.296 0.446 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 22 211 0.156

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 3513333 0.248 6160.386 44011 00 0.000 0.222 0.390 0.343 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 3614440 0.278 4200.342 42100 10 0.500 0.318 0.380 0.539 OK
Will SmithC 2610427 0.260 3160.316 44111 02 0.250 0.217 0.281 0.331 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 3614136 0.255 4190.340 44100 01 0.250 0.313 0.382 0.544 OK
Andy PagesCF 3713946 0.331 8330.371 43100 10 0.333 0.345 0.365 0.695 OK
Max Muncy3B 3512134 0.281 9130.383 44200 01 0.500 0.193 0.338 0.268 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 3412329 0.236 4170.312 44111 01 0.250 0.190 0.289 0.216 OK
Hyeseong KimSS 226721 0.313 180.373 44100 03 0.250 0.324 0.360 0.419 OK
Alex Freeland2B 298923 0.258 280.337 44100 00 0.250 0.333 0.447 0.512 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36339 33 28 0.273

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer StriderStarter 13.18.71 2.90317.46 3.17331381 3.1 3 3
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 99.20.00 0.76112.713 1.21000216 1.2 2 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 1615.20.59 0.9219.516 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 1816.51.09 0.48512.523 1.01001123 1.0 1 0
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 1815.42.92 1.36410.518 1.00000112 1.0 1 0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Blake SnellStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 3.23111584 3.2 5 1
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 1815.41.75 0.6499.416 1.20000319 1.2 3 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 1611.61.55 0.86212.416 1.2000008 1.2 0 0
Blake TreinenMiddle Reliever 139.61.88 1.25011.212 0.10000114 0.1 1 0
Will KleinMiddle Reliever 1114.53.10 1.5179.916 1.22111226 1.2 2 1

Game Summary

LAD wins 3-2


Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers

CHC 27-13 (5.38 RPG / 4.12 RA)
8 - 2
TEX 18-21 (3.74 RPG / 3.9 RA)
CHC WINS Target: CHC 8 - 2 TEX Confidence: 78.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CHC30012001189
TEX10100000023

CHC Recent Form

Win%1.000
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff27
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak10W

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.7
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff-20
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 3715342 0.275 4280.352 55000 01 0.000 0.184 0.277 0.259 OK
Michael ConfortoDH 102911 0.379 150.514 53110 21 0.333 0.406 0.530 0.707 OK
Alex Bregman3B 3815335 0.229 3120.328 54110 12 0.250 0.196 0.329 0.259 OK
Ian HappLF 3714034 0.243 9180.376 55112 01 0.200 0.236 0.392 0.460 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 238727 0.310 7160.419 53314 20 1.000 0.299 0.422 0.647 OK
Michael Busch1B 3714032 0.229 3220.341 53011 22 0.000 0.321 0.478 0.550 OK
Carson KellyC 249126 0.286 190.369 54110 12 0.250 0.272 0.328 0.296 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 3814337 0.259 4170.325 55110 01 0.200 0.331 0.396 0.633 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 3712725 0.197 6230.314 44111 00 0.250 0.173 0.236 0.206 OK
TEAM TOTALS 44369 88 810 0.250

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoRF 3614141 0.291 4120.373 42000 22 0.000 0.290 0.401 0.320 OK
Ezequiel Duran2B 247723 0.299 2110.382 44200 01 0.500 0.355 0.449 0.654 OK
Corey SeagerSS 3713828 0.203 7190.309 43000 13 0.000 0.163 0.280 0.316 OK
Josh Jung3B 3413040 0.308 4190.364 43000 12 0.000 0.252 0.302 0.298 OK
Evan CarterCF 3310620 0.189 4110.310 42011 11 0.000 0.151 0.290 0.334 OK
Joc PedersonDH 277514 0.187 150.281 43011 10 0.000 0.147 0.190 0.158 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 8183 0.167 010.400 44100 02 0.250 0.161 0.379 0.226 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 14519 0.176 140.263 44000 00 0.000 0.129 0.195 0.154 OK
Justin Foscue1B 000 0.000 000.000 44000 02 0.000 - - -
TEAM TOTALS 36293 22 613 0.103

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Edward CabreraStarter 740.43.34 1.3128.237 2.22115590 2.2 5 1
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 76.10.00 0.9848.96 2.10001223 2.1 2 0
Ben BrownMiddle Reliever 1328.51.89 0.9478.527 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Phil MatonMiddle Reliever 106.710.75 2.23914.811 0.20110217 0.2 2 1
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 1613.04.15 1.76911.817 1.10000218 1.1 2 0
Hoby MilnerMiddle Reliever 1815.12.98 1.1923.66 1.01000118 1.0 1 0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack LeiterStarter 736.65.66 1.42110.643 4.276628102 4.2 8 6
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 1517.51.03 0.5148.216 1.10001117 1.1 1 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1516.11.68 0.8073.97 0.20000012 0.2 0 0
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 1611.96.05 1.68112.116 1.12111021 1.1 0 1
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 1816.02.81 1.7507.313 1.00114136 1.0 1 1

Game Summary

CHC wins 8-2


Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies

COL 16-24 (4.38 RPG / 5.1 RA)
6 - 4
PHI 18-22 (4.1 RPG / 5.05 RA)
COL WINS Target: COL 6 - 4 PHI Confidence: 56.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
COL002100201610
PHI00100111049

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed6.6
Run Diff-12
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Edouard JulienDH 269326 0.280 2120.368 54211 11 0.500 0.266 0.370 0.405 OK
Mickey MoniakLF 2710434 0.327 11200.377 55312 01 0.600 0.320 0.389 0.772 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 3313233 0.250 10160.322 55000 00 0.000 0.239 0.300 0.465 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 3613837 0.268 4200.333 54112 11 0.250 0.329 0.376 0.544 OK
Troy JohnstonRF 3011136 0.324 2160.380 55111 03 0.200 0.367 0.446 0.476 OK
Willi Castro2B 279926 0.263 1120.330 53210 20 0.667 0.317 0.387 0.343 OK
Kyle Karros3B 3410323 0.223 170.344 54000 10 0.000 0.278 0.381 0.370 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 3513225 0.189 1100.239 44110 02 0.250 0.133 0.193 0.150 OK
Jake McCarthyCF 236919 0.275 2130.333 43000 12 0.000 0.331 0.390 0.766 OK
TEAM TOTALS 433710 66 610 0.270

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 3815936 0.226 4120.281 54100 10 0.250 0.180 0.191 0.262 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 3914531 0.214 13220.349 53000 10 0.000 0.221 0.292 0.561 OK
Bryce Harper1B 3914240 0.282 9230.380 54210 10 0.500 0.381 0.496 0.823 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 3713732 0.234 3120.305 54212 10 0.500 0.257 0.318 0.389 OK
Edmundo SosaLF 155212 0.231 170.245 55000 03 0.000 0.239 0.242 0.272 OK
Brandon MarshCF 3212341 0.333 4200.364 55100 02 0.200 0.413 0.457 0.526 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 217319 0.260 180.321 44211 00 0.500 0.261 0.273 0.347 OK
Alec Bohm3B 3412520 0.160 1150.229 43100 12 0.333 0.145 0.216 0.164 OK
Bryson Stott2B 2910722 0.206 3140.261 43011 00 0.000 0.196 0.248 0.547 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42359 44 57 0.257

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle FreelandStarter 524.35.19 1.3998.924 4.14221582 4.1 5 2
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 1415.26.51 1.8428.314 1.02112034 1.0 0 1
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1121.31.27 0.9399.322 1.01111018 1.0 0 1
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever 1413.65.96 1.47110.616 1.22001021 1.2 0 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 1617.05.29 1.82413.225 1.00000215 1.0 2 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron NolaStarter 736.45.19 1.4849.940 2.25333585 2.2 5 3
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 98.22.20 1.22013.212 2.00000116 2.0 1 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 1715.54.65 1.41910.518 1.11000115 1.1 1 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 1810.36.99 2.52415.718 1.01221124 1.0 1 2
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 1512.62.14 1.2707.110 1.01001119 1.0 1 0
Tanner BanksMiddle Reliever 1413.56.00 2.37012.018 1.02111119 1.0 1 1

Game Summary

COL wins 6-4


Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

DET 18-22 (4.22 RPG / 4.2 RA)
3 - 4
KC 19-21 (4.15 RPG / 4.42 RA)
KC WINS Target: DET 3 - 4 KC Confidence: 57.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
DET00200100033
KC00011020x45

DET Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak4L

KC Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigleSS 3613941 0.295 2160.395 43000 11 0.000 0.195 0.311 0.225 OK
Matt VierlingCF 227718 0.234 1120.294 43000 11 0.000 0.249 0.325 0.462 OK
Colt Keith3B 269227 0.293 040.337 44111 02 0.250 0.312 0.394 0.328 OK
Riley GreeneLF 3813843 0.312 4190.406 44000 03 0.000 0.354 0.429 0.521 OK
Dillon DinglerDH 2911127 0.243 6250.311 44000 00 0.000 0.202 0.229 0.380 OK
Kerry CarpenterRF 268518 0.212 5140.299 44110 03 0.250 0.161 0.217 0.351 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 3612326 0.211 6150.331 42000 20 0.000 0.141 0.242 0.320 OK
Zach McKinstry2B 15499 0.184 150.259 33000 00 0.000 0.180 0.276 0.251 OK
Jake RogersC 11336 0.182 040.216 33112 00 0.333 0.219 0.258 0.346 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34303 33 410 0.100

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 3614439 0.271 3150.331 44000 01 0.000 0.267 0.325 0.379 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 3915446 0.299 4170.371 43000 10 0.000 0.363 0.429 0.655 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 3613626 0.191 5180.278 44000 00 0.000 0.227 0.277 0.441 OK
Salvador PerezDH 3814929 0.195 5170.238 43000 11 0.000 0.155 0.225 0.201 OK
Carter JensenC 3211225 0.223 6170.312 33000 02 0.000 0.127 0.243 0.162 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 3111026 0.236 360.317 33111 00 0.333 0.186 0.273 0.390 OK
Lane ThomasLF 196012 0.200 140.342 33111 00 0.333 0.197 0.392 0.242 OK
Michael Massey2B 226716 0.239 290.254 33211 01 0.667 0.243 0.251 0.484 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 299026 0.289 3100.354 33111 00 0.333 0.314 0.388 0.415 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31295 44 25 0.172

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Burch SmithStarter 711.11.62 1.17113.016 3.23222180 3.2 1 2
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 107.43.65 1.48612.210 2.10000113 2.1 1 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 1716.50.55 1.3337.113 1.02220221 1.0 2 2
Brant HurterMiddle Reliever 1616.62.17 1.0247.614 1.00000115 1.0 1 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael WachaStarter 744.13.06 1.0667.336 4.11222789 4.1 7 2
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 1715.43.51 1.4948.214 1.01111121 1.0 1 1
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 1413.23.41 1.2129.514 1.11001021 1.1 0 0
Nick MearsMiddle Reliever 1612.62.14 1.2707.110 1.10000111 1.1 1 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 1514.51.86 0.62112.420 1.00000111 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

KC wins 4-3


Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds

HOU 16-24 (4.9 RPG / 5.62 RA)
4 - 1
CIN 21-19 (3.98 RPG / 4.92 RA)
HOU WINS Target: HOU 4 - 1 CIN Confidence: 71.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
HOU00022000043
CIN00000010015

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.100
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed7.7
Run Diff-46
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak8L

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jose Altuve2B 3513633 0.243 390.331 55110 01 0.200 0.212 0.267 0.344 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 3914547 0.324 13290.424 43000 10 0.000 0.271 0.333 0.466 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 3311932 0.269 3160.370 42010 21 0.000 0.294 0.422 0.411 OK
Christian Walker1B 3814142 0.298 9270.367 44112 00 0.250 0.262 0.311 0.447 OK
Cam SmithRF 3612828 0.219 3150.308 44112 01 0.250 0.246 0.309 0.309 OK
Zach ColeLF 3102 0.200 120.200 44000 02 0.000 0.200 0.200 0.500 OK
Brice MatthewsCF 227217 0.236 4120.291 41000 20 0.000 0.290 0.355 0.662 OK
Braden ShewmakeSS 4144 0.286 110.286 43000 12 0.000 0.286 0.286 0.500 OK
Christian VázquezC 165718 0.316 3120.371 44000 01 0.000 0.271 0.310 0.453 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37303 44 68 0.100

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
TJ FriedlCF 3313025 0.192 270.271 44000 02 0.000 0.158 0.207 0.254 OK
JJ BledayLF 113610 0.278 470.395 44100 01 0.250 0.253 0.344 0.591 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 3915542 0.271 10280.341 44100 02 0.250 0.251 0.297 0.368 OK
Sal Stewart3B 3914736 0.245 10300.331 44211 00 0.500 0.183 0.254 0.326 OK
Nathaniel LoweDH 217220 0.278 6150.358 44100 01 0.250 0.259 0.336 0.480 OK
Spencer Steer1B 3612530 0.240 6120.319 43000 11 0.000 0.274 0.351 0.421 OK
Will BensonRF 17489 0.188 120.278 43000 11 0.000 0.237 0.330 0.412 OK
Jose TrevinoC 7223 0.136 000.174 43000 11 0.000 0.135 0.156 0.190 OK
Matt McLain2B 3513528 0.207 3100.310 43000 10 0.000 0.214 0.268 0.353 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 11 49 0.156

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer ArrighettiStarter 423.01.96 1.3049.825 5.12001576 5.1 5 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 1313.83.91 1.5229.815 1.02002338 1.0 3 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 1311.410.26 2.54415.820 1.01110119 1.0 1 1
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 1413.65.29 1.3977.912 1.20001017 1.2 0 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chase BurnsStarter 740.32.23 1.04210.346 4.234456102 4.2 6 4
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 1615.22.96 1.3169.516 1.10001222 1.1 2 0
Graham AshcraftMiddle Reliever 1817.52.06 1.42910.320 0.20000011 0.2 0 0
Connor PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1817.25.23 1.86011.021 1.1000007 1.1 0 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 1813.44.03 2.01514.121 1.00000015 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

HOU wins 4-1


Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays

LAA 15-25 (4.28 RPG / 5.0 RA)
1 - 4
TOR 18-21 (4.18 RPG / 4.36 RA)
TOR WINS Target: LAA 1 - 4 TOR Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAA00000000113
TOR31000000x410

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-10
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 3915334 0.222 6180.333 44000 02 0.000 0.206 0.304 0.421 OK
Mike TroutCF 3813535 0.259 11230.425 44000 02 0.000 0.293 0.416 0.493 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 3514036 0.257 3200.307 43111 11 0.333 0.328 0.344 0.464 OK
Jorge SolerDH 3512629 0.230 8280.333 43100 11 0.333 0.205 0.318 0.421 OK
Jo AdellRF 3915441 0.266 4210.305 44100 02 0.250 0.260 0.295 0.317 OK
Yoán Moncada3B 279214 0.152 380.278 44000 02 0.000 0.098 0.148 0.122 OK
Vaughn Grissom2B 134814 0.292 160.364 32000 12 0.000 0.210 0.279 0.378 OK
Sebastián RiveroC 4113 0.273 000.273 33000 00 0.000 0.273 0.273 0.273 OK
Josh LoweLF 289414 0.149 4100.198 33000 00 0.000 0.078 0.088 0.135 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33303 11 312 0.100

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 207514 0.187 260.282 54100 11 0.250 0.170 0.259 0.227 OK
Addison BargerRF 5171 0.059 010.111 44211 01 0.500 0.059 0.111 0.118 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 3713643 0.316 2160.408 44312 00 0.750 0.222 0.329 0.251 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 3713734 0.248 10240.335 43000 00 0.000 0.310 0.415 0.681 OK
Jesús SánchezLF 2710025 0.250 4140.284 44000 01 0.000 0.215 0.222 0.311 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 3211927 0.227 490.308 44000 00 0.000 0.213 0.320 0.342 OK
Ernie Clement2B 3714941 0.275 1100.297 44211 01 0.500 0.152 0.202 0.202 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 3312232 0.262 3170.289 43210 11 0.667 0.238 0.268 0.284 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 164910 0.204 360.278 44000 01 0.000 0.216 0.324 0.417 OK
TEAM TOTALS 373410 44 26 0.294

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack KochanowiczStarter 739.73.17 1.2596.830 2.06331151 2.0 1 3
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 1317.85.06 1.23612.625 0.11000117 0.1 1 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 1316.13.91 1.30411.721 1.20001122 1.2 1 0
Kirby YatesMiddle Reliever 11.00.00 1.0009.01 0.20000011 0.2 0 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 1710.33.50 2.13612.214 1.11000018 1.1 0 0
Brent SuterMiddle Reliever 1520.74.35 1.4499.622 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Drew PomeranzReliever 1612.68.57 1.9058.612 1.01110319 1.0 3 1

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trey YesavageStarter 29.10.99 1.3198.99 4.10003789 4.1 7 0
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 1917.10.53 1.22815.329 1.20000110 1.2 1 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 1715.51.74 1.0325.810 1.02000217 1.0 2 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 1815.55.81 1.87117.430 1.00000011 1.0 0 0
Braydon FisherMiddle Reliever 1815.73.44 1.40111.520 1.01110220 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

TOR wins 4-1


Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

MIN 16-23 (4.79 RPG / 5.15 RA)
4 - 5
CLE 21-19 (4.2 RPG / 4.25 RA)
CLE WINS Target: MIN 4 - 5 CLE Confidence: 62.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIN22000000046
CLE00002012x57

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed6.5
Run Diff-21
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 3615339 0.255 12190.307 55112 02 0.200 0.265 0.301 0.624 OK
Brooks LeeSS 3412534 0.272 5210.326 55100 00 0.200 0.351 0.386 0.477 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 258624 0.279 1110.392 44111 01 0.250 0.280 0.326 0.392 OK
Josh BellDH 3513228 0.212 3180.291 44111 01 0.250 0.153 0.175 0.174 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 3713833 0.239 1150.318 43110 10 0.333 0.346 0.491 0.505 OK
Kody Clemens1B 237816 0.205 390.333 43000 10 0.000 0.198 0.390 0.327 OK
Victor CaratiniC 268918 0.202 1120.299 43000 12 0.000 0.133 0.216 0.142 OK
Matt WallnerRF 3111120 0.180 4100.278 43100 10 0.333 0.195 0.273 0.370 OK
Royce Lewis3B 248114 0.173 3110.269 43000 11 0.000 0.107 0.160 0.162 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38336 44 57 0.182

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanLF 3614031 0.221 190.321 44000 03 0.000 0.189 0.309 0.253 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 3212237 0.303 6230.386 44000 02 0.000 0.416 0.489 0.657 OK
José Ramírez3B 4014632 0.219 6150.345 44000 01 0.000 0.216 0.352 0.271 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 279817 0.173 180.248 43000 11 0.000 0.186 0.231 0.227 OK
Daniel SchneemannCF 279427 0.287 4130.356 44212 00 0.500 0.204 0.268 0.308 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 9306 0.200 140.368 44110 00 0.250 0.242 0.383 0.377 OK
Angel MartínezRF 2810730 0.280 5150.330 33110 00 0.333 0.255 0.330 0.347 OK
Austin HedgesC 154915 0.306 140.352 32212 10 1.000 0.320 0.380 0.546 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 3812533 0.264 3190.348 33111 00 0.333 0.212 0.312 0.243 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33317 55 27 0.226

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joe RyanStarter 838.23.77 1.0739.440 4.23221589 4.2 5 2
Justin TopaMiddle Reliever 2113.59.33 2.2968.713 2.03110126 2.0 1 1
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 1615.05.40 1.6679.616 1.11221123 1.1 1 2

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner BibeeStarter 838.44.69 1.5108.436 2.24332266 2.2 2 3
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 1818.13.48 1.27111.924 1.00001121 1.0 1 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever 1912.62.86 1.11119.327 1.10000112 1.1 1 0
Matt FestaMiddle Reliever 1714.76.73 1.49711.619 1.01001121 1.0 1 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 95.69.64 2.50011.27 1.00110216 1.0 2 1
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever 159.10.00 1.8684.95 0.11001025 0.1 0 0
Colin HoldermanReliever 811.51.57 0.7839.412 1.20000015 1.2 0 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-4


New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks

NYM 15-24 (3.54 RPG / 4.23 RA)
6 - 1
ARI 18-20 (4.32 RPG / 5.0 RA)
NYM WINS Target: NYM 6 - 1 ARI Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYM400000200610
ARI00000001016

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.0
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff-22
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Juan SotoLF 228423 0.274 4100.367 55210 00 0.400 0.190 0.246 0.462 OK
Bo BichetteSS 3815636 0.231 2160.269 55312 00 0.600 0.211 0.252 0.251 OK
MJ MelendezDH 144013 0.325 260.400 44111 01 0.250 0.277 0.363 0.481 OK
Mark Vientos1B 279522 0.232 5160.282 44000 00 0.000 0.251 0.296 0.628 OK
Carson BengeRF 3010322 0.214 3110.289 43113 10 0.333 0.290 0.392 0.544 OK
Marcus Semien2B 3813631 0.228 2130.284 44110 01 0.250 0.258 0.322 0.415 OK
Brett Baty3B 2910122 0.218 1110.279 44110 00 0.250 0.167 0.325 0.224 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 3010324 0.233 490.316 44100 02 0.250 0.261 0.320 0.322 OK
Tyrone TaylorCF 164611 0.239 150.271 44000 01 0.000 0.252 0.285 0.302 OK
TEAM TOTALS 383710 66 15 0.270

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 3313829 0.210 5130.259 43000 11 0.000 0.133 0.156 0.244 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 3512433 0.266 5200.363 44111 03 0.250 0.208 0.295 0.440 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 3411626 0.224 2110.343 44100 02 0.250 0.145 0.297 0.274 OK
Adrian Del CastilloDH 197314 0.192 2130.221 44000 00 0.000 0.166 0.186 0.230 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 2811539 0.339 6190.356 44100 01 0.250 0.267 0.282 0.343 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 3411732 0.274 6180.323 44100 01 0.250 0.271 0.380 0.512 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 145112 0.235 040.316 44000 02 0.000 0.307 0.416 0.365 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 155412 0.222 160.295 33200 00 0.667 0.190 0.274 0.365 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 000 0.000 000.000 33000 02 0.000 - - -
TEAM TOTALS 34336 11 112 0.182

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Clay HolmesStarter 741.51.73 1.0126.731 4.22001776 4.2 7 0
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 1411.54.70 1.47816.421 1.11000116 1.1 1 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 1614.74.90 1.2939.816 0.22000221 0.2 2 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 1612.91.40 1.00812.618 1.11110018 1.1 0 1
Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever 1613.71.97 1.2419.214 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Merrill KellyStarter 418.310.33 2.4046.914 1.26220142 1.2 1 2
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.10000111 1.1 1 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.00110212 1.0 2 1
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.01000013 1.0 0 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Taylor ClarkeMiddle Reliever 10.1360.00 30.0000.00 1.02220015 1.0 0 2
Ryan ThompsonReliever 22.00.00 0.0004.51 1.00001123 1.0 1 0
Brandon PfaadtReliever 210.27.06 1.4714.45 1.00000010 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 6-1


New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers

NYY 26-13 (5.36 RPG / 3.44 RA)
4 - 5
MIL 20-16 (5.19 RPG / 3.75 RA)
MIL WINS Target: NYY 4 - 5 MIL Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYY00001120048
MIL00100002258

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff26
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.0
Avg Allowed2.2
Run Diff38
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Paul Goldschmidt1B 13459 0.200 250.308 54312 10 0.750 0.210 0.317 0.468 OK
Ben RiceDH 3010835 0.324 11250.439 55110 01 0.200 0.394 0.459 0.785 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 3914138 0.270 15290.398 53111 21 0.333 0.299 0.391 0.649 OK
Cody BellingerLF 3713639 0.287 5260.383 55100 02 0.200 0.380 0.448 0.732 OK
Amed Rosario3B 185916 0.271 4130.323 44100 02 0.250 0.277 0.316 0.471 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 3613628 0.206 4130.288 44000 01 0.000 0.166 0.227 0.286 OK
José CaballeroSS 3712834 0.266 4130.319 43000 11 0.000 0.281 0.355 0.381 OK
Spencer JonesCF 120 0.000 000.333 43000 11 0.000 - 0.333 -
Austin WellsC 298817 0.193 350.327 44111 00 0.250 0.175 0.310 0.264 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40358 44 59 0.229

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 3137 0.538 020.571 54110 12 0.250 0.538 0.571 0.769 OK
Brice Turang2B 3312236 0.295 5220.428 55100 03 0.200 0.324 0.459 0.493 OK
William ContrerasC 3313639 0.287 3240.358 54213 10 0.500 0.238 0.306 0.295 OK
Jake Bauers1B 2910929 0.266 5190.350 44000 03 0.000 0.270 0.406 0.372 OK
Tyler BlackDH 6239 0.391 070.417 44112 00 0.250 0.418 0.444 0.603 OK
Sal FrelickRF 3010823 0.213 380.303 44100 02 0.250 0.268 0.340 0.350 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 269121 0.231 1210.364 42110 10 0.500 0.183 0.294 0.246 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 259318 0.194 0110.269 44000 01 0.000 0.182 0.279 0.218 OK
David HamiltonSS 288721 0.241 070.340 43110 11 0.333 0.241 0.286 0.266 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39348 55 412 0.235

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cam SchlittlerStarter 846.41.55 0.88410.353 3.22113781 3.2 7 1
David BednarMiddle Reliever 1514.43.75 1.59711.218 1.11000219 1.1 2 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 179.04.00 2.33320.020 1.01000115 1.0 1 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 1713.21.36 0.9854.87 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 2016.41.65 1.46311.521 1.02221126 1.0 1 2
Camilo DovalMiddle Reliever 1611.96.81 1.34512.116 0.22220019 0.2 0 2

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle HarrisonStarter 629.22.16 1.13010.835 4.12113495 4.1 4 1
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 1511.74.62 1.19710.814 1.22110224 1.2 2 1
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 1720.22.67 1.53515.635 1.03221232 1.0 2 2
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 1313.03.46 1.15410.415 1.00001015 1.0 0 0
DL HallMiddle Reliever 1514.21.90 1.40812.720 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-4


Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles

OAK 21-18 (4.49 RPG / 4.62 RA)
7 - 4
BAL 17-23 (4.47 RPG / 5.53 RA)
OAK WINS Target: OAK 7 - 4 BAL Confidence: 70.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
OAK000501010711
BAL00130000044

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed7.2
Run Diff-25
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Kurtz1B 3713635 0.257 5200.413 54000 12 0.000 0.304 0.393 0.413 OK
Shea LangeliersC 3414448 0.333 11200.385 55211 01 0.400 0.399 0.429 0.799 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 3613629 0.213 5200.303 55113 01 0.200 0.236 0.340 0.505 OK
Brent RookerDH 218215 0.183 4150.258 54110 11 0.250 0.224 0.288 0.404 OK
Carlos CortesRF 237927 0.342 4140.395 55110 00 0.200 0.300 0.316 0.418 OK
Jacob WilsonSS 3715446 0.299 3190.319 55210 01 0.400 0.328 0.382 0.466 OK
Lawrence ButlerCF 279719 0.196 3120.304 55100 01 0.200 0.182 0.365 0.279 OK
Zack Gelof3B 155214 0.269 3110.321 43110 11 0.333 0.304 0.383 0.669 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 3010734 0.318 1120.380 42213 20 1.000 0.340 0.373 0.415 OK
TEAM TOTALS 433811 77 58 0.289

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gunnar HendersonSS 3816232 0.198 9200.260 55113 03 0.200 0.155 0.197 0.215 OK
Taylor WardLF 3813737 0.270 1120.420 44111 01 0.250 0.121 0.389 0.145 OK
Adley RutschmanC 218125 0.309 5190.371 44000 01 0.000 0.279 0.354 0.523 OK
Pete Alonso1B 3914633 0.226 8220.327 43000 12 0.000 0.290 0.374 0.677 OK
Samuel BasalloDH 2710125 0.248 5130.315 44000 01 0.000 0.320 0.354 0.558 OK
Leody TaverasCF 248022 0.275 2180.396 42010 20 0.000 0.223 0.362 0.349 OK
Dylan BeaversRF 279021 0.233 2100.314 43000 11 0.000 0.254 0.361 0.393 OK
Coby Mayo3B 299716 0.165 3110.229 43000 00 0.000 0.158 0.170 0.194 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 3312230 0.246 6240.268 43210 00 0.667 0.177 0.208 0.249 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37314 44 49 0.129

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron CivaleStarter 735.53.04 1.3806.827 3.23334493 3.2 4 3
Jack PerkinsMiddle Reliever 1013.74.60 1.38713.821 1.1000019 1.1 1 0
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 2114.33.78 2.37812.620 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 1311.12.43 1.2614.15 0.20000117 0.2 1 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 1615.11.79 0.7288.915 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 1712.19.67 2.23111.916 1.01110114 1.0 1 1

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane BazStarter 737.85.24 1.6147.933 3.28442598 3.2 5 4
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 1815.60.58 0.44911.019 0.20000010 0.2 0 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 1811.21.61 0.6258.811 1.22110119 1.2 1 1
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 63.518.00 3.71415.46 1.00110115 1.0 1 1
Keegan AkinMiddle Reliever 65.212.12 2.1158.75 1.01112125 1.0 1 1
Dietrich EnnsMiddle Reliever 66.62.73 1.66712.39 1.00001015 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

OAK wins 7-4


Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants

PIT 21-18 (4.79 RPG / 4.23 RA)
6 - 0
SF 15-23 (3.16 RPG / 4.18 RA)
PIT WINS Target: PIT 6 - 0 SF Confidence: 76.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PIT00301200066
SF00000000005

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SF Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs2.3
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-22
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 3615338 0.248 9280.315 55213 01 0.400 0.200 0.296 0.276 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 3212433 0.266 10230.368 53010 20 0.000 0.322 0.458 0.662 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 3813534 0.252 4220.400 53000 21 0.000 0.210 0.374 0.323 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 3513038 0.292 5250.373 44113 02 0.250 0.221 0.301 0.315 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 3212238 0.311 0170.378 43110 10 0.333 0.229 0.380 0.247 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 3012024 0.200 4140.267 44000 02 0.000 0.302 0.379 0.489 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 309724 0.247 2130.370 43110 10 0.333 0.227 0.351 0.383 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 3111530 0.261 2150.331 44110 00 0.250 0.291 0.370 0.451 OK
Joey BartC 165111 0.216 230.259 44000 02 0.000 0.289 0.305 0.480 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39336 66 68 0.182

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jung Hoo LeeRF 3713637 0.272 2110.320 42100 20 0.500 0.181 0.224 0.204 OK
Luis Arraez2B 3513743 0.314 0130.338 44000 00 0.000 0.334 0.338 0.497 OK
Heliot RamosLF 3513535 0.259 3150.289 44100 01 0.250 0.229 0.239 0.402 OK
Rafael Devers1B 3814433 0.229 4160.271 44100 01 0.250 0.310 0.354 0.617 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 391 0.111 000.200 44000 01 0.000 0.111 0.200 0.111 OK
Willy AdamesSS 3714830 0.203 360.239 43000 01 0.000 0.225 0.240 0.285 OK
Matt Chapman3B 3714132 0.227 1120.301 43100 11 0.333 0.065 0.127 0.090 OK
Drew GilbertCF 175415 0.278 260.316 44000 01 0.000 0.320 0.351 0.415 OK
Eric HaaseC 3103 0.300 010.300 44100 02 0.250 0.300 0.300 0.500 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 00 38 0.156

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braxton AshcraftStarter 740.53.11 1.11110.045 4.13002584 4.1 5 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 1716.23.89 1.2965.610 1.2000009 1.2 0 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 1918.31.48 0.71012.325 1.02001025 1.0 0 0
Isaac MattsonMiddle Reliever 1814.94.23 1.6117.913 1.00000218 1.0 2 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 1511.93.78 1.68116.622 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Landen RouppStarter 738.53.27 1.09110.143 4.23445497 4.2 4 4
Ryan WalkerMiddle Reliever 1512.86.33 1.9539.113 1.13220228 1.1 2 2
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 1715.42.92 0.8448.214 0.10000114 0.1 1 0
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 1614.91.81 1.27510.918 1.20001121 1.2 1 0
Matt GageMiddle Reliever 1811.61.55 1.5527.09 1.0000006 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 6-0


Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox

SEA 19-20 (4.23 RPG / 4.03 RA)
6 - 8
CHW 17-21 (4.29 RPG / 4.82 RA)
CHW WINS Target: SEA 6 - 8 CHW Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
SEA2300001000610
CHW0015000002811

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Rob RefsnyderRF 10304 0.133 110.212 55210 00 0.400 0.179 0.223 0.314 OK
Cal RaleighDH 3514023 0.164 7170.247 55111 01 0.200 0.067 0.149 0.154 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 3915541 0.265 6180.329 55213 01 0.400 0.266 0.300 0.557 OK
Josh Naylor1B 3614235 0.246 5200.308 55211 01 0.400 0.362 0.396 0.532 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 3914039 0.279 3120.368 55210 02 0.400 0.274 0.360 0.363 OK
J.P. CrawfordSS 3010422 0.212 4110.379 44111 01 0.250 0.245 0.432 0.532 OK
Mitch GarverC 12367 0.194 010.383 43000 12 0.000 0.187 0.401 0.187 OK
Cole Young2B 3913637 0.272 3210.346 44000 01 0.000 0.267 0.352 0.378 OK
Leo Rivas3B 288612 0.140 050.272 44000 00 0.000 0.127 0.267 0.180 OK
TEAM TOTALS 414010 66 19 0.250

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 186216 0.258 190.373 65211 01 0.400 0.294 0.413 0.353 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 3613231 0.235 15290.370 65010 12 0.000 0.211 0.314 0.558 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 3513028 0.215 7180.356 55110 02 0.200 0.213 0.357 0.383 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 3613430 0.224 9260.329 55213 01 0.400 0.216 0.314 0.416 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 3513538 0.281 250.355 53111 21 0.333 0.339 0.382 0.496 OK
Jarred KelenicRF 5155 0.333 010.375 55110 02 0.200 0.333 0.375 0.333 OK
Tristan PetersCF 257419 0.257 050.321 54211 10 0.500 0.243 0.327 0.295 OK
Randal GrichukDH 000 0.000 000.000 54212 10 0.500 0.239 0.251 0.382
Edgar QueroC 227612 0.158 060.241 54000 11 0.000 0.165 0.222 0.177 OK
TEAM TOTALS 474011 88 610 0.275

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis CastilloStarter 733.46.47 1.7078.431 3.1105547111 3.1 7 5
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 1614.36.29 1.46915.725 1.10000011 1.1 0 0
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 1916.92.13 1.4798.516 1.10000010 1.1 0 0
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 1914.41.87 1.3898.113 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Cooper CriswellMiddle Reliever 1316.12.24 0.8708.415 1.0000019 1.0 1 0
Alex HoppeMiddle Reliever 44.210.71 2.14317.18 0.10110111 0.1 1 1
Josh SimpsonReliever 11.09.00 1.00018.02 1.21222031 1.2 0 2

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Anthony KayStarter 727.96.13 1.7926.520 2.09221267 2.0 2 2
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 1.00110011 1.0 0 1
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.0000018 1.0 1 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 1.00110113 1.0 1 1
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever 20.390.00 20.00030.01 0.1011019 0.1 1 1
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 129.81.84 1.93913.815 1.21110115 1.2 1 1
Trevor RichardsReliever 000.00 0.0000.00 3.00000338 3.0 3 0

Game Summary

CHW wins 8-6 (Extra Innings - 10)


St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres

STL 23-15 (4.79 RPG / 4.63 RA)
3 - 2
SD 22-16 (4.29 RPG / 4.29 RA)
STL WINS Target: STL 3 - 2 SD Confidence: 57.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
STL30000000035
SD10010000028

STL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff19
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-14
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 3714334 0.238 7200.355 54000 11 0.000 0.221 0.328 0.310 OK
Iván HerreraDH 3813736 0.263 4170.414 43000 10 0.000 0.330 0.427 0.453 OK
Alec Burleson1B 3614540 0.276 6300.350 44210 00 0.500 0.276 0.333 0.514 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 3613742 0.307 10270.389 44113 00 0.250 0.284 0.430 0.494 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 3312127 0.223 4210.292 43000 11 0.000 0.222 0.290 0.377 OK
Masyn WinnSS 3212433 0.266 1160.331 42110 20 0.500 0.282 0.326 0.382 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 2810526 0.248 4130.273 44000 02 0.000 0.260 0.265 0.360 OK
Thomas SaggeseLF 14498 0.163 010.226 44100 01 0.250 0.093 0.121 0.121 OK
Pedro PagésC 248318 0.217 380.267 44000 02 0.000 0.153 0.200 0.274 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37325 33 57 0.156

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson MerrillCF 3614333 0.231 4180.295 55100 02 0.200 0.300 0.357 0.484 OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 3613734 0.248 0120.321 44200 00 0.500 0.210 0.255 0.273 OK
Manny Machado3B 3612825 0.195 5180.305 43000 00 0.000 0.096 0.189 0.173 OK
Gavin SheetsDH 279520 0.211 390.265 44100 01 0.250 0.179 0.256 0.332 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 3613335 0.263 6210.342 44000 01 0.000 0.255 0.316 0.419 OK
Ramón LaureanoLF 3312729 0.228 5190.306 43011 10 0.000 0.129 0.282 0.293 OK
Ty France1B 165515 0.273 380.310 44100 00 0.250 0.242 0.257 0.382 OK
Sung-Mun Song2B 392 0.222 020.222 44111 00 0.250 0.222 0.222 0.333 OK
Freddy FerminC 20639 0.143 030.253 44200 00 0.500 0.101 0.186 0.163 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 22 14 0.229

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dustin MayStarter 736.25.22 1.5476.225 3.26221192 3.2 1 2
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 1816.62.17 0.96410.820 2.11000013 2.1 0 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 1814.54.34 1.5178.714 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 1813.28.18 2.34814.321 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 1714.03.86 1.3579.014 1.01000115 1.0 1 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Randy VásquezStarter 738.43.28 1.1988.436 2.23333482 2.2 4 3
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 1717.11.05 0.58517.934 2.10000014 2.1 0 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 1210.31.75 0.9714.45 1.01001226 1.0 2 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 1617.26.28 1.51213.125 0.10001123 0.1 1 0
Jeremiah EstradaMiddle Reliever 98.55.29 1.29413.813 1.20000012 1.2 0 0
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever 1615.42.34 1.2998.214 1.01000010 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

STL wins 3-2


Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

TB 25-13 (4.39 RPG / 3.95 RA)
4 - 3
BOS 17-22 (3.97 RPG / 4.21 RA)
TB WINS Target: TB 4 - 3 BOS Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TB200000200410
BOS00000030036

TB Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed1.5
Run Diff17
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-3
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Cedric MullinsCF 2910814 0.130 2100.188 55200 01 0.400 0.107 0.165 0.125 OK
Taylor WallsSS 267916 0.203 060.308 55310 00 0.600 0.195 0.317 0.216 OK
Richie Palacios2B 18468 0.174 140.339 54100 11 0.250 0.074 0.228 0.104 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 3613436 0.269 7290.365 54212 10 0.500 0.342 0.437 0.444 OK
Nick FortesC 248224 0.293 170.310 55000 00 0.000 0.356 0.360 0.388 OK
Junior Caminero3B 3714236 0.254 10180.344 54111 10 0.250 0.208 0.325 0.391 OK
Jake FraleyRF 216517 0.262 250.333 43000 10 0.000 0.285 0.322 0.397 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 3514141 0.291 070.320 44000 02 0.000 0.229 0.239 0.245 OK
Yandy Díaz1B 3613643 0.316 5230.397 43111 11 0.333 0.248 0.300 0.372 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423710 44 55 0.270

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 3412334 0.276 3140.346 44000 01 0.000 0.334 0.390 0.550 OK
Trevor StorySS 3715130 0.199 2180.236 44100 01 0.250 0.174 0.212 0.199 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 299521 0.221 180.292 44100 02 0.250 0.226 0.295 0.243 OK
Willson Contreras1B 3813535 0.259 8230.376 43110 11 0.333 0.202 0.344 0.401 OK
Carlos NarváezC 247716 0.208 230.274 43110 11 0.333 0.135 0.305 0.274 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 3512322 0.179 1130.257 44000 01 0.000 0.201 0.231 0.251 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 3814243 0.303 6180.387 44100 01 0.250 0.314 0.428 0.562 OK
Jarren DuranLF 3213226 0.197 4180.259 44113 01 0.250 0.220 0.280 0.414 OK
Masataka YoshidaLF 165614 0.250 040.364 33000 01 0.000 0.231 0.285 0.251 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 33 210 0.182

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick MartinezStarter 741.31.74 1.0416.128 4.12001472 4.1 4 0
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 1614.22.54 0.84510.116 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Cole SulserMiddle Reliever 1619.52.77 1.3857.416 1.03221132 1.0 1 2
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 64.26.43 2.38112.96 1.21110219 1.2 2 1
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 1515.12.98 1.25811.920 1.00000217 1.0 2 0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Payton TolleStarter 317.22.09 0.75612.023 4.25221490 4.2 4 2
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1312.20.74 0.82011.816 1.10002129 1.1 1 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 1515.13.58 1.25811.319 0.14220023 0.1 0 2
Zack KellyMiddle Reliever 1311.83.81 1.3569.212 1.20001016 1.2 0 0
Greg WeissertMiddle Reliever 1612.15.95 1.73613.418 1.01001015 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

TB wins 4-3


Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins

WAS 19-21 (5.38 RPG / 5.62 RA)
4 - 3
MIA 18-22 (4.28 RPG / 4.42 RA)
WAS WINS Target: WAS 4 - 3 MIA Confidence: 64.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
WAS02000000249
MIA10020000035

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff6
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-6
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 3914935 0.235 10270.384 55000 01 0.000 0.215 0.331 0.343 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 279622 0.229 1160.257 55111 02 0.200 0.186 0.192 0.264 OK
Brady House3B 3012428 0.226 5170.284 53211 10 0.667 0.246 0.323 0.473 OK
CJ AbramsSS 3713339 0.293 9340.396 55100 01 0.200 0.317 0.379 0.564 OK
Daylen LileLF 3815137 0.245 3140.321 44000 00 0.000 0.182 0.307 0.253 OK
Jacob YoungCF 3312529 0.232 3160.278 44100 02 0.250 0.217 0.281 0.337 OK
Jose FernandezDH 000 0.000 000.000 44211 01 0.500 0.220 0.327 0.286
Drew MillasC 185610 0.179 140.246 44211 00 0.500 0.211 0.257 0.429 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 3310924 0.220 0140.323 42000 21 0.000 0.273 0.357 0.367 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40369 44 38 0.250

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 3813945 0.324 3130.416 44000 02 0.000 0.263 0.377 0.444 OK
Otto LopezSS 3714952 0.349 4160.380 44000 00 0.000 0.414 0.420 0.589 OK
Liam HicksDH 2910535 0.333 9340.383 44211 00 0.500 0.346 0.406 0.699 OK
Kyle StowersLF 166213 0.210 010.300 44000 02 0.000 0.203 0.266 0.213 OK
Connor Norby1B 3411125 0.225 3120.336 43112 11 0.333 0.173 0.306 0.211 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 3614024 0.171 190.291 43000 12 0.000 0.159 0.274 0.216 OK
Owen CaissieRF 289018 0.200 1140.257 43110 11 0.333 0.126 0.254 0.158 OK
Leo Jiménez3B 8204 0.200 000.333 44000 01 0.000 0.179 0.342 0.179 OK
Joe MackC 4122 0.167 010.167 33100 00 0.333 0.167 0.167 0.167 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 33 39 0.156

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Richard LoveladyStarter 85.81.55 2.41412.48 4.15331477 4.1 4 3
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 1512.13.72 1.57011.916 1.20002127 1.2 1 0
PJ PoulinMiddle Reliever 1915.44.09 1.6888.214 1.00000012 1.0 0 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1223.03.91 1.3047.018 1.00000112 1.0 1 0
Mitchell ParkerMiddle Reliever 715.33.53 0.9808.214 1.00000315 1.0 3 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Janson JunkStarter 737.42.89 1.0706.527 4.14221487 4.1 4 2
Tyler PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1222.51.20 1.3789.624 1.00000112 1.0 1 0
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 1612.64.29 1.74611.416 1.21001120 1.2 1 0
John KingMiddle Reliever 1812.60.71 0.71410.715 0.21001222 0.2 2 0
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 1711.45.53 1.66713.417 1.13220022 1.1 0 2

Game Summary

WAS wins 4-3