| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ LAD | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 | LAD wins 3-2 | 57% | enhanced_ml |
| CHC @ TEX | 8 - 2 | 8 - 2 | CHC wins 8-2 | 79% | enhanced_ml |
| COL @ PHI | 6 - 4 | 6 - 4 | COL wins 6-4 | 56% | enhanced_ml |
| DET @ KC | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | KC wins 4-3 | 57% | enhanced_ml |
| HOU @ CIN | 4 - 1 | 4 - 1 | HOU wins 4-1 | 71% | enhanced_ml |
| LAA @ TOR | 1 - 4 | 1 - 4 | TOR wins 4-1 | 58% | enhanced_ml |
| MIN @ CLE | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | CLE wins 5-4 | 62% | enhanced_ml |
| NYM @ ARI | 6 - 1 | 6 - 1 | NYM wins 6-1 | 58% | enhanced_ml |
| NYY @ MIL | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | MIL wins 5-4 | 51% | enhanced_ml |
| OAK @ BAL | 7 - 4 | 7 - 4 | OAK wins 7-4 | 70% | enhanced_ml |
| PIT @ SF | 6 - 0 | 6 - 0 | PIT wins 6-0 | 77% | enhanced_ml |
| SEA @ CHW | 6 - 8 | 6 - 8 | CHW wins 8-6 (Extra Innings - 10) | 56% | enhanced_ml |
| STL @ SD | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 | STL wins 3-2 | 57% | enhanced_ml |
| TB @ BOS | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | TB wins 4-3 | 56% | enhanced_ml |
| WAS @ MIA | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | WAS wins 4-3 | 64% | enhanced_ml |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 3 | 9 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 37 | 135 | 36 | 0.267 | 2 | 20 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.326 | 0.323 | OK |
| Drake Baldwin | DH | 39 | 158 | 47 | 0.297 | 9 | 30 | 0.380 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.239 | 0.337 | 0.410 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 39 | 151 | 47 | 0.311 | 8 | 23 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.261 | 0.351 | 0.488 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 39 | 150 | 44 | 0.293 | 13 | 33 | 0.379 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.407 | 0.755 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 38 | 145 | 31 | 0.214 | 5 | 23 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.250 | 0.417 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 30 | 114 | 35 | 0.307 | 6 | 18 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.333 | 0.340 | 0.434 | OK |
| Sean Murphy | C | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0.167 | 0 | 0 | 0.167 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.167 | 0.167 | 0.167 | OK |
| Eli White | RF | 15 | 43 | 9 | 0.209 | 2 | 7 | 0.239 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.276 | 0.433 | OK |
| Jorge Mateo | SS | 14 | 44 | 12 | 0.273 | 1 | 3 | 0.304 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.282 | 0.296 | 0.446 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 35 | 133 | 33 | 0.248 | 6 | 16 | 0.386 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.390 | 0.343 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 36 | 144 | 40 | 0.278 | 4 | 20 | 0.342 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.318 | 0.380 | 0.539 | OK |
| Will Smith | C | 26 | 104 | 27 | 0.260 | 3 | 16 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.217 | 0.281 | 0.331 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 36 | 141 | 36 | 0.255 | 4 | 19 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.313 | 0.382 | 0.544 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 37 | 139 | 46 | 0.331 | 8 | 33 | 0.371 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.345 | 0.365 | 0.695 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 35 | 121 | 34 | 0.281 | 9 | 13 | 0.383 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.193 | 0.338 | 0.268 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 34 | 123 | 29 | 0.236 | 4 | 17 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.190 | 0.289 | 0.216 | OK |
| Hyeseong Kim | SS | 22 | 67 | 21 | 0.313 | 1 | 8 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.324 | 0.360 | 0.419 | OK |
| Alex Freeland | 2B | 29 | 89 | 23 | 0.258 | 2 | 8 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.333 | 0.447 | 0.512 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Spencer Strider | Starter | 1 | 3.1 | 8.71 | 2.903 | 17.4 | 6 | 3.1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 81 | 3.1 | 3 | 3 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 9 | 9.2 | 0.00 | 0.761 | 12.7 | 13 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Robert Suarez | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.2 | 0.59 | 0.921 | 9.5 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.5 | 1.09 | 0.485 | 12.5 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Kinley | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.4 | 2.92 | 1.364 | 10.5 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Blake Snell | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 84 | 3.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.4 | 1.75 | 0.649 | 9.4 | 16 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1.2 | 3 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 16 | 11.6 | 1.55 | 0.862 | 12.4 | 16 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Treinen | Middle Reliever | 13 | 9.6 | 1.88 | 1.250 | 11.2 | 12 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Klein | Middle Reliever | 11 | 14.5 | 3.10 | 1.517 | 9.9 | 16 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 |
LAD wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| TEX | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 37 | 153 | 42 | 0.275 | 4 | 28 | 0.352 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.184 | 0.277 | 0.259 | OK |
| Michael Conforto | DH | 10 | 29 | 11 | 0.379 | 1 | 5 | 0.514 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.406 | 0.530 | 0.707 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 38 | 153 | 35 | 0.229 | 3 | 12 | 0.328 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.196 | 0.329 | 0.259 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 37 | 140 | 34 | 0.243 | 9 | 18 | 0.376 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.236 | 0.392 | 0.460 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 23 | 87 | 27 | 0.310 | 7 | 16 | 0.419 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.299 | 0.422 | 0.647 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 37 | 140 | 32 | 0.229 | 3 | 22 | 0.341 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.321 | 0.478 | 0.550 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 24 | 91 | 26 | 0.286 | 1 | 9 | 0.369 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.272 | 0.328 | 0.296 | OK |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 38 | 143 | 37 | 0.259 | 4 | 17 | 0.325 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.331 | 0.396 | 0.633 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 37 | 127 | 25 | 0.197 | 6 | 23 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.173 | 0.236 | 0.206 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 44 | 36 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 36 | 141 | 41 | 0.291 | 4 | 12 | 0.373 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.290 | 0.401 | 0.320 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | 2B | 24 | 77 | 23 | 0.299 | 2 | 11 | 0.382 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.355 | 0.449 | 0.654 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 37 | 138 | 28 | 0.203 | 7 | 19 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.163 | 0.280 | 0.316 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 34 | 130 | 40 | 0.308 | 4 | 19 | 0.364 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.302 | 0.298 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 33 | 106 | 20 | 0.189 | 4 | 11 | 0.310 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.151 | 0.290 | 0.334 | OK |
| Joc Pederson | DH | 27 | 75 | 14 | 0.187 | 1 | 5 | 0.281 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.147 | 0.190 | 0.158 | OK |
| Alejandro Osuna | LF | 8 | 18 | 3 | 0.167 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.161 | 0.379 | 0.226 | OK |
| Kyle Higashioka | C | 14 | 51 | 9 | 0.176 | 1 | 4 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.129 | 0.195 | 0.154 | OK |
| Justin Foscue | 1B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | - | - | - | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0.103 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Edward Cabrera | Starter | 7 | 40.4 | 3.34 | 1.312 | 8.2 | 37 | 2.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 90 | 2.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever | 7 | 6.1 | 0.00 | 0.984 | 8.9 | 6 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 2.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ben Brown | Middle Reliever | 13 | 28.5 | 1.89 | 0.947 | 8.5 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Phil Maton | Middle Reliever | 10 | 6.7 | 10.75 | 2.239 | 14.8 | 11 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 16 | 13.0 | 4.15 | 1.769 | 11.8 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Hoby Milner | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.1 | 2.98 | 1.192 | 3.6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Leiter | Starter | 7 | 36.6 | 5.66 | 1.421 | 10.6 | 43 | 4.2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 102 | 4.2 | 8 | 6 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 15 | 17.5 | 1.03 | 0.514 | 8.2 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Middle Reliever | 15 | 16.1 | 1.68 | 0.807 | 3.9 | 7 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Winn | Middle Reliever | 16 | 11.9 | 6.05 | 1.681 | 12.1 | 16 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.0 | 2.81 | 1.750 | 7.3 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
CHC wins 8-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Edouard Julien | DH | 26 | 93 | 26 | 0.280 | 2 | 12 | 0.368 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.266 | 0.370 | 0.405 | OK |
| Mickey Moniak | LF | 27 | 104 | 34 | 0.327 | 11 | 20 | 0.377 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.320 | 0.389 | 0.772 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 33 | 132 | 33 | 0.250 | 10 | 16 | 0.322 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.300 | 0.465 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 36 | 138 | 37 | 0.268 | 4 | 20 | 0.333 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.329 | 0.376 | 0.544 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | RF | 30 | 111 | 36 | 0.324 | 2 | 16 | 0.380 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.367 | 0.446 | 0.476 | OK |
| Willi Castro | 2B | 27 | 99 | 26 | 0.263 | 1 | 12 | 0.330 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.317 | 0.387 | 0.343 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 34 | 103 | 23 | 0.223 | 1 | 7 | 0.344 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.381 | 0.370 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 35 | 132 | 25 | 0.189 | 1 | 10 | 0.239 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.133 | 0.193 | 0.150 | OK |
| Jake McCarthy | CF | 23 | 69 | 19 | 0.275 | 2 | 13 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.331 | 0.390 | 0.766 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 43 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trea Turner | SS | 38 | 159 | 36 | 0.226 | 4 | 12 | 0.281 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.180 | 0.191 | 0.262 | OK |
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 39 | 145 | 31 | 0.214 | 13 | 22 | 0.349 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.292 | 0.561 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 39 | 142 | 40 | 0.282 | 9 | 23 | 0.380 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.381 | 0.496 | 0.823 | OK |
| Adolis García | RF | 37 | 137 | 32 | 0.234 | 3 | 12 | 0.305 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.257 | 0.318 | 0.389 | OK |
| Edmundo Sosa | LF | 15 | 52 | 12 | 0.231 | 1 | 7 | 0.245 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.242 | 0.272 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | CF | 32 | 123 | 41 | 0.333 | 4 | 20 | 0.364 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.413 | 0.457 | 0.526 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 21 | 73 | 19 | 0.260 | 1 | 8 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.261 | 0.273 | 0.347 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 34 | 125 | 20 | 0.160 | 1 | 15 | 0.229 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.145 | 0.216 | 0.164 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 29 | 107 | 22 | 0.206 | 3 | 14 | 0.261 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.248 | 0.547 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 0.257 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Freeland | Starter | 5 | 24.3 | 5.19 | 1.399 | 8.9 | 24 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 82 | 4.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever | 14 | 15.2 | 6.51 | 1.842 | 8.3 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 34 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 11 | 21.3 | 1.27 | 0.939 | 9.3 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever | 14 | 13.6 | 5.96 | 1.471 | 10.6 | 16 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 16 | 17.0 | 5.29 | 1.824 | 13.2 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Aaron Nola | Starter | 7 | 36.4 | 5.19 | 1.484 | 9.9 | 40 | 2.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 85 | 2.2 | 5 | 3 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 9 | 8.2 | 2.20 | 1.220 | 13.2 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Keller | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.5 | 4.65 | 1.419 | 10.5 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 18 | 10.3 | 6.99 | 2.524 | 15.7 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 15 | 12.6 | 2.14 | 1.270 | 7.1 | 10 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tanner Banks | Middle Reliever | 14 | 13.5 | 6.00 | 2.370 | 12.0 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
COL wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | x | 4 | 5 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kevin McGonigle | SS | 36 | 139 | 41 | 0.295 | 2 | 16 | 0.395 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.311 | 0.225 | OK |
| Matt Vierling | CF | 22 | 77 | 18 | 0.234 | 1 | 12 | 0.294 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.325 | 0.462 | OK |
| Colt Keith | 3B | 26 | 92 | 27 | 0.293 | 0 | 4 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.312 | 0.394 | 0.328 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 38 | 138 | 43 | 0.312 | 4 | 19 | 0.406 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.354 | 0.429 | 0.521 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | DH | 29 | 111 | 27 | 0.243 | 6 | 25 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.229 | 0.380 | OK |
| Kerry Carpenter | RF | 26 | 85 | 18 | 0.212 | 5 | 14 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.161 | 0.217 | 0.351 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 36 | 123 | 26 | 0.211 | 6 | 15 | 0.331 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.141 | 0.242 | 0.320 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | 2B | 15 | 49 | 9 | 0.184 | 1 | 5 | 0.259 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.180 | 0.276 | 0.251 | OK |
| Jake Rogers | C | 11 | 33 | 6 | 0.182 | 0 | 4 | 0.216 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.219 | 0.258 | 0.346 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 30 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Maikel Garcia | 3B | 36 | 144 | 39 | 0.271 | 3 | 15 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.325 | 0.379 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 39 | 154 | 46 | 0.299 | 4 | 17 | 0.371 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.363 | 0.429 | 0.655 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 36 | 136 | 26 | 0.191 | 5 | 18 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.277 | 0.441 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | DH | 38 | 149 | 29 | 0.195 | 5 | 17 | 0.238 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.155 | 0.225 | 0.201 | OK |
| Carter Jensen | C | 32 | 112 | 25 | 0.223 | 6 | 17 | 0.312 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.127 | 0.243 | 0.162 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 31 | 110 | 26 | 0.236 | 3 | 6 | 0.317 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.186 | 0.273 | 0.390 | OK |
| Lane Thomas | LF | 19 | 60 | 12 | 0.200 | 1 | 4 | 0.342 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.197 | 0.392 | 0.242 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 22 | 67 | 16 | 0.239 | 2 | 9 | 0.254 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.243 | 0.251 | 0.484 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 29 | 90 | 26 | 0.289 | 3 | 10 | 0.354 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.314 | 0.388 | 0.415 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Burch Smith | Starter | 7 | 11.1 | 1.62 | 1.171 | 13.0 | 16 | 3.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 80 | 3.2 | 1 | 2 |
| Kenley Jansen | Middle Reliever | 10 | 7.4 | 3.65 | 1.486 | 12.2 | 10 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.5 | 0.55 | 1.333 | 7.1 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Brant Hurter | Middle Reliever | 16 | 16.6 | 2.17 | 1.024 | 7.6 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Wacha | Starter | 7 | 44.1 | 3.06 | 1.066 | 7.3 | 36 | 4.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 89 | 4.1 | 7 | 2 |
| Lucas Erceg | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.4 | 3.51 | 1.494 | 8.2 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Strahm | Middle Reliever | 14 | 13.2 | 3.41 | 1.212 | 9.5 | 14 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Mears | Middle Reliever | 16 | 12.6 | 2.14 | 1.270 | 7.1 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 15 | 14.5 | 1.86 | 0.621 | 12.4 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
KC wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 35 | 136 | 33 | 0.243 | 3 | 9 | 0.331 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.212 | 0.267 | 0.344 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 39 | 145 | 47 | 0.324 | 13 | 29 | 0.424 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.333 | 0.466 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 33 | 119 | 32 | 0.269 | 3 | 16 | 0.370 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 0.422 | 0.411 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 38 | 141 | 42 | 0.298 | 9 | 27 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.311 | 0.447 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 36 | 128 | 28 | 0.219 | 3 | 15 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.309 | 0.309 | OK |
| Zach Cole | LF | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0.200 | 1 | 2 | 0.200 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.500 | OK |
| Brice Matthews | CF | 22 | 72 | 17 | 0.236 | 4 | 12 | 0.291 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.290 | 0.355 | 0.662 | OK |
| Braden Shewmake | SS | 4 | 14 | 4 | 0.286 | 1 | 1 | 0.286 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.286 | 0.500 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 16 | 57 | 18 | 0.316 | 3 | 12 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.310 | 0.453 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 30 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| TJ Friedl | CF | 33 | 130 | 25 | 0.192 | 2 | 7 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.158 | 0.207 | 0.254 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 11 | 36 | 10 | 0.278 | 4 | 7 | 0.395 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.253 | 0.344 | 0.591 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 39 | 155 | 42 | 0.271 | 10 | 28 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.297 | 0.368 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 3B | 39 | 147 | 36 | 0.245 | 10 | 30 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.183 | 0.254 | 0.326 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | DH | 21 | 72 | 20 | 0.278 | 6 | 15 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.336 | 0.480 | OK |
| Spencer Steer | 1B | 36 | 125 | 30 | 0.240 | 6 | 12 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.351 | 0.421 | OK |
| Will Benson | RF | 17 | 48 | 9 | 0.188 | 1 | 2 | 0.278 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.330 | 0.412 | OK |
| Jose Trevino | C | 7 | 22 | 3 | 0.136 | 0 | 0 | 0.174 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.135 | 0.156 | 0.190 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 35 | 135 | 28 | 0.207 | 3 | 10 | 0.310 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.268 | 0.353 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Spencer Arrighetti | Starter | 4 | 23.0 | 1.96 | 1.304 | 9.8 | 25 | 5.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 76 | 5.1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bryan King | Middle Reliever | 13 | 13.8 | 3.91 | 1.522 | 9.8 | 15 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever | 13 | 11.4 | 10.26 | 2.544 | 15.8 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever | 14 | 13.6 | 5.29 | 1.397 | 7.9 | 12 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chase Burns | Starter | 7 | 40.3 | 2.23 | 1.042 | 10.3 | 46 | 4.2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 102 | 4.2 | 6 | 4 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.2 | 2.96 | 1.316 | 9.5 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Graham Ashcraft | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.5 | 2.06 | 1.429 | 10.3 | 20 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Connor Phillips | Middle Reliever | 18 | 17.2 | 5.23 | 1.860 | 11.0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 18 | 13.4 | 4.03 | 2.015 | 14.1 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
HOU wins 4-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| TOR | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 10 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 39 | 153 | 34 | 0.222 | 6 | 18 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.304 | 0.421 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 38 | 135 | 35 | 0.259 | 11 | 23 | 0.425 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.416 | 0.493 | OK |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | 35 | 140 | 36 | 0.257 | 3 | 20 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.328 | 0.344 | 0.464 | OK |
| Jorge Soler | DH | 35 | 126 | 29 | 0.230 | 8 | 28 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.205 | 0.318 | 0.421 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 39 | 154 | 41 | 0.266 | 4 | 21 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.295 | 0.317 | OK |
| Yoán Moncada | 3B | 27 | 92 | 14 | 0.152 | 3 | 8 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.098 | 0.148 | 0.122 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 2B | 13 | 48 | 14 | 0.292 | 1 | 6 | 0.364 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.279 | 0.378 | OK |
| Sebastián Rivero | C | 4 | 11 | 3 | 0.273 | 0 | 0 | 0.273 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.273 | 0.273 | OK |
| Josh Lowe | LF | 28 | 94 | 14 | 0.149 | 4 | 10 | 0.198 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.078 | 0.088 | 0.135 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| George Springer | DH | 20 | 75 | 14 | 0.187 | 2 | 6 | 0.282 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.170 | 0.259 | 0.227 | OK |
| Addison Barger | RF | 5 | 17 | 1 | 0.059 | 0 | 1 | 0.111 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.059 | 0.111 | 0.118 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 37 | 136 | 43 | 0.316 | 2 | 16 | 0.408 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.222 | 0.329 | 0.251 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 37 | 137 | 34 | 0.248 | 10 | 24 | 0.335 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.310 | 0.415 | 0.681 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | LF | 27 | 100 | 25 | 0.250 | 4 | 14 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.222 | 0.311 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 32 | 119 | 27 | 0.227 | 4 | 9 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.320 | 0.342 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 37 | 149 | 41 | 0.275 | 1 | 10 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.152 | 0.202 | 0.202 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 33 | 122 | 32 | 0.262 | 3 | 17 | 0.289 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.238 | 0.268 | 0.284 | OK |
| Brandon Valenzuela | C | 16 | 49 | 10 | 0.204 | 3 | 6 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.324 | 0.417 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jack Kochanowicz | Starter | 7 | 39.7 | 3.17 | 1.259 | 6.8 | 30 | 2.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 51 | 2.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 13 | 17.8 | 5.06 | 1.236 | 12.6 | 25 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 13 | 16.1 | 3.91 | 1.304 | 11.7 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 1.000 | 9.0 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever | 17 | 10.3 | 3.50 | 2.136 | 12.2 | 14 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Suter | Middle Reliever | 15 | 20.7 | 4.35 | 1.449 | 9.6 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Pomeranz | Reliever | 16 | 12.6 | 8.57 | 1.905 | 8.6 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trey Yesavage | Starter | 2 | 9.1 | 0.99 | 1.319 | 8.9 | 9 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 89 | 4.1 | 7 | 0 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 19 | 17.1 | 0.53 | 1.228 | 15.3 | 29 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.5 | 1.74 | 1.032 | 5.8 | 10 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.5 | 5.81 | 1.871 | 17.4 | 30 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Braydon Fisher | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.7 | 3.44 | 1.401 | 11.5 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
TOR wins 4-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | x | 5 | 7 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Byron Buxton | CF | 36 | 153 | 39 | 0.255 | 12 | 19 | 0.307 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.265 | 0.301 | 0.624 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | SS | 34 | 125 | 34 | 0.272 | 5 | 21 | 0.326 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.351 | 0.386 | 0.477 | OK |
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 25 | 86 | 24 | 0.279 | 1 | 11 | 0.392 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.280 | 0.326 | 0.392 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 35 | 132 | 28 | 0.212 | 3 | 18 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.153 | 0.175 | 0.174 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | 2B | 37 | 138 | 33 | 0.239 | 1 | 15 | 0.318 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.346 | 0.491 | 0.505 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 1B | 23 | 78 | 16 | 0.205 | 3 | 9 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.390 | 0.327 | OK |
| Victor Caratini | C | 26 | 89 | 18 | 0.202 | 1 | 12 | 0.299 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.133 | 0.216 | 0.142 | OK |
| Matt Wallner | RF | 31 | 111 | 20 | 0.180 | 4 | 10 | 0.278 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.195 | 0.273 | 0.370 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 3B | 24 | 81 | 14 | 0.173 | 3 | 11 | 0.269 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.107 | 0.160 | 0.162 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Steven Kwan | LF | 36 | 140 | 31 | 0.221 | 1 | 9 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.189 | 0.309 | 0.253 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | DH | 32 | 122 | 37 | 0.303 | 6 | 23 | 0.386 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.416 | 0.489 | 0.657 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 40 | 146 | 32 | 0.219 | 6 | 15 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.352 | 0.271 | OK |
| Kyle Manzardo | 1B | 27 | 98 | 17 | 0.173 | 1 | 8 | 0.248 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.231 | 0.227 | OK |
| Daniel Schneemann | CF | 27 | 94 | 27 | 0.287 | 4 | 13 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.204 | 0.268 | 0.308 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 9 | 30 | 6 | 0.200 | 1 | 4 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.242 | 0.383 | 0.377 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | RF | 28 | 107 | 30 | 0.280 | 5 | 15 | 0.330 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.255 | 0.330 | 0.347 | OK |
| Austin Hedges | C | 15 | 49 | 15 | 0.306 | 1 | 4 | 0.352 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.320 | 0.380 | 0.546 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 38 | 125 | 33 | 0.264 | 3 | 19 | 0.348 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.212 | 0.312 | 0.243 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Joe Ryan | Starter | 8 | 38.2 | 3.77 | 1.073 | 9.4 | 40 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 89 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Justin Topa | Middle Reliever | 21 | 13.5 | 9.33 | 2.296 | 8.7 | 13 | 2.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Eric Orze | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.0 | 5.40 | 1.667 | 9.6 | 16 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tanner Bibee | Starter | 8 | 38.4 | 4.69 | 1.510 | 8.4 | 36 | 2.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 66 | 2.2 | 2 | 3 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 18 | 18.1 | 3.48 | 1.271 | 11.9 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever | 19 | 12.6 | 2.86 | 1.111 | 19.3 | 27 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Festa | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.7 | 6.73 | 1.497 | 11.6 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 9 | 5.6 | 9.64 | 2.500 | 11.2 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Tim Herrin | Middle Reliever | 15 | 9.1 | 0.00 | 1.868 | 4.9 | 5 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Colin Holderman | Reliever | 8 | 11.5 | 1.57 | 0.783 | 9.4 | 12 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
CLE wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Juan Soto | LF | 22 | 84 | 23 | 0.274 | 4 | 10 | 0.367 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.190 | 0.246 | 0.462 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | SS | 38 | 156 | 36 | 0.231 | 2 | 16 | 0.269 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.211 | 0.252 | 0.251 | OK |
| MJ Melendez | DH | 14 | 40 | 13 | 0.325 | 2 | 6 | 0.400 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.277 | 0.363 | 0.481 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | 1B | 27 | 95 | 22 | 0.232 | 5 | 16 | 0.282 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.296 | 0.628 | OK |
| Carson Benge | RF | 30 | 103 | 22 | 0.214 | 3 | 11 | 0.289 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.290 | 0.392 | 0.544 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 38 | 136 | 31 | 0.228 | 2 | 13 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.322 | 0.415 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 3B | 29 | 101 | 22 | 0.218 | 1 | 11 | 0.279 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.167 | 0.325 | 0.224 | OK |
| Francisco Alvarez | C | 30 | 103 | 24 | 0.233 | 4 | 9 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.261 | 0.320 | 0.322 | OK |
| Tyrone Taylor | CF | 16 | 46 | 11 | 0.239 | 1 | 5 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.285 | 0.302 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 33 | 138 | 29 | 0.210 | 5 | 13 | 0.259 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.133 | 0.156 | 0.244 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 35 | 124 | 33 | 0.266 | 5 | 20 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.295 | 0.440 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 34 | 116 | 26 | 0.224 | 2 | 11 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.145 | 0.297 | 0.274 | OK |
| Adrian Del Castillo | DH | 19 | 73 | 14 | 0.192 | 2 | 13 | 0.221 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.166 | 0.186 | 0.230 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 28 | 115 | 39 | 0.339 | 6 | 19 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.267 | 0.282 | 0.343 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 34 | 117 | 32 | 0.274 | 6 | 18 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.271 | 0.380 | 0.512 | OK |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | LF | 14 | 51 | 12 | 0.235 | 0 | 4 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.307 | 0.416 | 0.365 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 15 | 54 | 12 | 0.222 | 1 | 6 | 0.295 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.190 | 0.274 | 0.365 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | - | - | - | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Clay Holmes | Starter | 7 | 41.5 | 1.73 | 1.012 | 6.7 | 31 | 4.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 76 | 4.2 | 7 | 0 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 14 | 11.5 | 4.70 | 1.478 | 16.4 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 16 | 14.7 | 4.90 | 1.293 | 9.8 | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 16 | 12.9 | 1.40 | 1.008 | 12.6 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Huascar Brazobán | Middle Reliever | 16 | 13.7 | 1.97 | 1.241 | 9.2 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Merrill Kelly | Starter | 4 | 18.3 | 10.33 | 2.404 | 6.9 | 14 | 1.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 |
| Paul Sewald | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 7.5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.476 | 8.6 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Taylor Clarke | Middle Reliever | 1 | 0.1 | 360.00 | 30.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ryan Thompson | Reliever | 2 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 4.5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Reliever | 2 | 10.2 | 7.06 | 1.471 | 4.4 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
NYM wins 6-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 13 | 45 | 9 | 0.200 | 2 | 5 | 0.308 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.210 | 0.317 | 0.468 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 30 | 108 | 35 | 0.324 | 11 | 25 | 0.439 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.394 | 0.459 | 0.785 | OK |
| Aaron Judge | RF | 39 | 141 | 38 | 0.270 | 15 | 29 | 0.398 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.299 | 0.391 | 0.649 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 37 | 136 | 39 | 0.287 | 5 | 26 | 0.383 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.380 | 0.448 | 0.732 | OK |
| Amed Rosario | 3B | 18 | 59 | 16 | 0.271 | 4 | 13 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.277 | 0.316 | 0.471 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 36 | 136 | 28 | 0.206 | 4 | 13 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.166 | 0.227 | 0.286 | OK |
| José Caballero | SS | 37 | 128 | 34 | 0.266 | 4 | 13 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.281 | 0.355 | 0.381 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | CF | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | - | 0.333 | - | |
| Austin Wells | C | 29 | 88 | 17 | 0.193 | 3 | 5 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.175 | 0.310 | 0.264 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 3 | 13 | 7 | 0.538 | 0 | 2 | 0.571 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.538 | 0.571 | 0.769 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 33 | 122 | 36 | 0.295 | 5 | 22 | 0.428 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.324 | 0.459 | 0.493 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 33 | 136 | 39 | 0.287 | 3 | 24 | 0.358 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.238 | 0.306 | 0.295 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 29 | 109 | 29 | 0.266 | 5 | 19 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.406 | 0.372 | OK |
| Tyler Black | DH | 6 | 23 | 9 | 0.391 | 0 | 7 | 0.417 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.418 | 0.444 | 0.603 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 30 | 108 | 23 | 0.213 | 3 | 8 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.340 | 0.350 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 26 | 91 | 21 | 0.231 | 1 | 21 | 0.364 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.183 | 0.294 | 0.246 | OK |
| Luis Rengifo | 3B | 25 | 93 | 18 | 0.194 | 0 | 11 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.182 | 0.279 | 0.218 | OK |
| David Hamilton | SS | 28 | 87 | 21 | 0.241 | 0 | 7 | 0.340 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.241 | 0.286 | 0.266 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 0.235 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cam Schlittler | Starter | 8 | 46.4 | 1.55 | 0.884 | 10.3 | 53 | 3.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 81 | 3.2 | 7 | 1 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 15 | 14.4 | 3.75 | 1.597 | 11.2 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 17 | 9.0 | 4.00 | 2.333 | 20.0 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | Middle Reliever | 17 | 13.2 | 1.36 | 0.985 | 4.8 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brent Headrick | Middle Reliever | 20 | 16.4 | 1.65 | 1.463 | 11.5 | 21 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Camilo Doval | Middle Reliever | 16 | 11.9 | 6.81 | 1.345 | 12.1 | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Harrison | Starter | 6 | 29.2 | 2.16 | 1.130 | 10.8 | 35 | 4.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 95 | 4.1 | 4 | 1 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 15 | 11.7 | 4.62 | 1.197 | 10.8 | 14 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 17 | 20.2 | 2.67 | 1.535 | 15.6 | 35 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 13 | 13.0 | 3.46 | 1.154 | 10.4 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DL Hall | Middle Reliever | 15 | 14.2 | 1.90 | 1.408 | 12.7 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
MIL wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Kurtz | 1B | 37 | 136 | 35 | 0.257 | 5 | 20 | 0.413 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.304 | 0.393 | 0.413 | OK |
| Shea Langeliers | C | 34 | 144 | 48 | 0.333 | 11 | 20 | 0.385 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.399 | 0.429 | 0.799 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 36 | 136 | 29 | 0.213 | 5 | 20 | 0.303 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.236 | 0.340 | 0.505 | OK |
| Brent Rooker | DH | 21 | 82 | 15 | 0.183 | 4 | 15 | 0.258 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.224 | 0.288 | 0.404 | OK |
| Carlos Cortes | RF | 23 | 79 | 27 | 0.342 | 4 | 14 | 0.395 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.300 | 0.316 | 0.418 | OK |
| Jacob Wilson | SS | 37 | 154 | 46 | 0.299 | 3 | 19 | 0.319 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.328 | 0.382 | 0.466 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | CF | 27 | 97 | 19 | 0.196 | 3 | 12 | 0.304 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.182 | 0.365 | 0.279 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 15 | 52 | 14 | 0.269 | 3 | 11 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.304 | 0.383 | 0.669 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 30 | 107 | 34 | 0.318 | 1 | 12 | 0.380 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.340 | 0.373 | 0.415 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 43 | 38 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 38 | 162 | 32 | 0.198 | 9 | 20 | 0.260 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.155 | 0.197 | 0.215 | OK |
| Taylor Ward | LF | 38 | 137 | 37 | 0.270 | 1 | 12 | 0.420 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.121 | 0.389 | 0.145 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 21 | 81 | 25 | 0.309 | 5 | 19 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.354 | 0.523 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 39 | 146 | 33 | 0.226 | 8 | 22 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.290 | 0.374 | 0.677 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | DH | 27 | 101 | 25 | 0.248 | 5 | 13 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.320 | 0.354 | 0.558 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | CF | 24 | 80 | 22 | 0.275 | 2 | 18 | 0.396 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.362 | 0.349 | OK |
| Dylan Beavers | RF | 27 | 90 | 21 | 0.233 | 2 | 10 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.361 | 0.393 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 29 | 97 | 16 | 0.165 | 3 | 11 | 0.229 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.158 | 0.170 | 0.194 | OK |
| Jeremiah Jackson | 2B | 33 | 122 | 30 | 0.246 | 6 | 24 | 0.268 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.177 | 0.208 | 0.249 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Aaron Civale | Starter | 7 | 35.5 | 3.04 | 1.380 | 6.8 | 27 | 3.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 93 | 3.2 | 4 | 3 |
| Jack Perkins | Middle Reliever | 10 | 13.7 | 4.60 | 1.387 | 13.8 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 21 | 14.3 | 3.78 | 2.378 | 12.6 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joel Kuhnel | Middle Reliever | 13 | 11.1 | 2.43 | 1.261 | 4.1 | 5 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Scott Barlow | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.1 | 1.79 | 0.728 | 8.9 | 15 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | Middle Reliever | 17 | 12.1 | 9.67 | 2.231 | 11.9 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shane Baz | Starter | 7 | 37.8 | 5.24 | 1.614 | 7.9 | 33 | 3.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 98 | 3.2 | 5 | 4 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever | 18 | 15.6 | 0.58 | 0.449 | 11.0 | 19 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever | 18 | 11.2 | 1.61 | 0.625 | 8.8 | 11 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 6 | 3.5 | 18.00 | 3.714 | 15.4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Keegan Akin | Middle Reliever | 6 | 5.2 | 12.12 | 2.115 | 8.7 | 5 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dietrich Enns | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.6 | 2.73 | 1.667 | 12.3 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
OAK wins 7-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 36 | 153 | 38 | 0.248 | 9 | 28 | 0.315 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.200 | 0.296 | 0.276 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 32 | 124 | 33 | 0.266 | 10 | 23 | 0.368 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.322 | 0.458 | 0.662 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 38 | 135 | 34 | 0.252 | 4 | 22 | 0.400 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.374 | 0.323 | OK |
| Ryan O'Hearn | RF | 35 | 130 | 38 | 0.292 | 5 | 25 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.301 | 0.315 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 32 | 122 | 38 | 0.311 | 0 | 17 | 0.378 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.229 | 0.380 | 0.247 | OK |
| Marcell Ozuna | DH | 30 | 120 | 24 | 0.200 | 4 | 14 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.302 | 0.379 | 0.489 | OK |
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 30 | 97 | 24 | 0.247 | 2 | 13 | 0.370 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.227 | 0.351 | 0.383 | OK |
| Konnor Griffin | SS | 31 | 115 | 30 | 0.261 | 2 | 15 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.291 | 0.370 | 0.451 | OK |
| Joey Bart | C | 16 | 51 | 11 | 0.216 | 2 | 3 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.289 | 0.305 | 0.480 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 33 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 37 | 136 | 37 | 0.272 | 2 | 11 | 0.320 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.181 | 0.224 | 0.204 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 35 | 137 | 43 | 0.314 | 0 | 13 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.334 | 0.338 | 0.497 | OK |
| Heliot Ramos | LF | 35 | 135 | 35 | 0.259 | 3 | 15 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.239 | 0.402 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 38 | 144 | 33 | 0.229 | 4 | 16 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.310 | 0.354 | 0.617 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0.111 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.111 | 0.200 | 0.111 | OK |
| Willy Adames | SS | 37 | 148 | 30 | 0.203 | 3 | 6 | 0.239 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.240 | 0.285 | OK |
| Matt Chapman | 3B | 37 | 141 | 32 | 0.227 | 1 | 12 | 0.301 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.065 | 0.127 | 0.090 | OK |
| Drew Gilbert | CF | 17 | 54 | 15 | 0.278 | 2 | 6 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.320 | 0.351 | 0.415 | OK |
| Eric Haase | C | 3 | 10 | 3 | 0.300 | 0 | 1 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.500 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Braxton Ashcraft | Starter | 7 | 40.5 | 3.11 | 1.111 | 10.0 | 45 | 4.1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 84 | 4.1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dennis Santana | Middle Reliever | 17 | 16.2 | 3.89 | 1.296 | 5.6 | 10 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 19 | 18.3 | 1.48 | 0.710 | 12.3 | 25 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Mattson | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.9 | 4.23 | 1.611 | 7.9 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 15 | 11.9 | 3.78 | 1.681 | 16.6 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Landen Roupp | Starter | 7 | 38.5 | 3.27 | 1.091 | 10.1 | 43 | 4.2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 97 | 4.2 | 4 | 4 |
| Ryan Walker | Middle Reliever | 15 | 12.8 | 6.33 | 1.953 | 9.1 | 13 | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 17 | 15.4 | 2.92 | 0.844 | 8.2 | 14 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 16 | 14.9 | 1.81 | 1.275 | 10.9 | 18 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Gage | Middle Reliever | 18 | 11.6 | 1.55 | 1.552 | 7.0 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
PIT wins 6-0
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Rob Refsnyder | RF | 10 | 30 | 4 | 0.133 | 1 | 1 | 0.212 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.179 | 0.223 | 0.314 | OK |
| Cal Raleigh | DH | 35 | 140 | 23 | 0.164 | 7 | 17 | 0.247 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.067 | 0.149 | 0.154 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 39 | 155 | 41 | 0.265 | 6 | 18 | 0.329 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.266 | 0.300 | 0.557 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 36 | 142 | 35 | 0.246 | 5 | 20 | 0.308 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.362 | 0.396 | 0.532 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 39 | 140 | 39 | 0.279 | 3 | 12 | 0.368 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.274 | 0.360 | 0.363 | OK |
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 30 | 104 | 22 | 0.212 | 4 | 11 | 0.379 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.432 | 0.532 | OK |
| Mitch Garver | C | 12 | 36 | 7 | 0.194 | 0 | 1 | 0.383 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.401 | 0.187 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 39 | 136 | 37 | 0.272 | 3 | 21 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.352 | 0.378 | OK |
| Leo Rivas | 3B | 28 | 86 | 12 | 0.140 | 0 | 5 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.127 | 0.267 | 0.180 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 40 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 18 | 62 | 16 | 0.258 | 1 | 9 | 0.373 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.294 | 0.413 | 0.353 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 36 | 132 | 31 | 0.235 | 15 | 29 | 0.370 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.314 | 0.558 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 35 | 130 | 28 | 0.215 | 7 | 18 | 0.356 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.213 | 0.357 | 0.383 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 36 | 134 | 30 | 0.224 | 9 | 26 | 0.329 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.216 | 0.314 | 0.416 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 35 | 135 | 38 | 0.281 | 2 | 5 | 0.355 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.339 | 0.382 | 0.496 | OK |
| Jarred Kelenic | RF | 5 | 15 | 5 | 0.333 | 0 | 1 | 0.375 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.333 | 0.375 | 0.333 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 25 | 74 | 19 | 0.257 | 0 | 5 | 0.321 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.243 | 0.327 | 0.295 | OK |
| Randal Grichuk | DH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.239 | 0.251 | 0.382 | |
| Edgar Quero | C | 22 | 76 | 12 | 0.158 | 0 | 6 | 0.241 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.165 | 0.222 | 0.177 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 47 | 40 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 0.275 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Luis Castillo | Starter | 7 | 33.4 | 6.47 | 1.707 | 8.4 | 31 | 3.1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 111 | 3.1 | 7 | 5 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 16 | 14.3 | 6.29 | 1.469 | 15.7 | 25 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Middle Reliever | 19 | 16.9 | 2.13 | 1.479 | 8.5 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever | 19 | 14.4 | 1.87 | 1.389 | 8.1 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cooper Criswell | Middle Reliever | 13 | 16.1 | 2.24 | 0.870 | 8.4 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Hoppe | Middle Reliever | 4 | 4.2 | 10.71 | 2.143 | 17.1 | 8 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Simpson | Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 1.000 | 18.0 | 2 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 1.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Anthony Kay | Starter | 7 | 27.9 | 6.13 | 1.792 | 6.5 | 20 | 2.0 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 67 | 2.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.1 | 16.36 | 3.636 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever | 1 | 2.1 | 8.57 | 1.905 | 4.3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Hicks | Middle Reliever | 2 | 0.3 | 90.00 | 20.000 | 30.0 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever | 12 | 9.8 | 1.84 | 1.939 | 13.8 | 15 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Trevor Richards | Reliever | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 38 | 3.0 | 3 | 0 |
CHW wins 8-6 (Extra Innings - 10)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 37 | 143 | 34 | 0.238 | 7 | 20 | 0.355 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.328 | 0.310 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 38 | 137 | 36 | 0.263 | 4 | 17 | 0.414 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.330 | 0.427 | 0.453 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 36 | 145 | 40 | 0.276 | 6 | 30 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.276 | 0.333 | 0.514 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 36 | 137 | 42 | 0.307 | 10 | 27 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.284 | 0.430 | 0.494 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 33 | 121 | 27 | 0.223 | 4 | 21 | 0.292 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.290 | 0.377 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 32 | 124 | 33 | 0.266 | 1 | 16 | 0.331 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.282 | 0.326 | 0.382 | OK |
| Nathan Church | CF | 28 | 105 | 26 | 0.248 | 4 | 13 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.265 | 0.360 | OK |
| Thomas Saggese | LF | 14 | 49 | 8 | 0.163 | 0 | 1 | 0.226 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.093 | 0.121 | 0.121 | OK |
| Pedro Pagés | C | 24 | 83 | 18 | 0.217 | 3 | 8 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.153 | 0.200 | 0.274 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 36 | 143 | 33 | 0.231 | 4 | 18 | 0.295 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.300 | 0.357 | 0.484 | OK |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | 36 | 137 | 34 | 0.248 | 0 | 12 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.210 | 0.255 | 0.273 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 36 | 128 | 25 | 0.195 | 5 | 18 | 0.305 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.096 | 0.189 | 0.173 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | DH | 27 | 95 | 20 | 0.211 | 3 | 9 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.179 | 0.256 | 0.332 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 36 | 133 | 35 | 0.263 | 6 | 21 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.316 | 0.419 | OK |
| Ramón Laureano | LF | 33 | 127 | 29 | 0.228 | 5 | 19 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.129 | 0.282 | 0.293 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 16 | 55 | 15 | 0.273 | 3 | 8 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.242 | 0.257 | 0.382 | OK |
| Sung-Mun Song | 2B | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0.222 | 0 | 2 | 0.222 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.222 | 0.333 | OK |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 20 | 63 | 9 | 0.143 | 0 | 3 | 0.253 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.101 | 0.186 | 0.163 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dustin May | Starter | 7 | 36.2 | 5.22 | 1.547 | 6.2 | 25 | 3.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 92 | 3.2 | 1 | 2 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 18 | 16.6 | 2.17 | 0.964 | 10.8 | 20 | 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 |
| JoJo Romero | Middle Reliever | 18 | 14.5 | 4.34 | 1.517 | 8.7 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever | 18 | 13.2 | 8.18 | 2.348 | 14.3 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 17 | 14.0 | 3.86 | 1.357 | 9.0 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Randy Vásquez | Starter | 7 | 38.4 | 3.28 | 1.198 | 8.4 | 36 | 2.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 82 | 2.2 | 4 | 3 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 17 | 17.1 | 1.05 | 0.585 | 17.9 | 34 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever | 12 | 10.3 | 1.75 | 0.971 | 4.4 | 5 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 16 | 17.2 | 6.28 | 1.512 | 13.1 | 25 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | Middle Reliever | 9 | 8.5 | 5.29 | 1.294 | 13.8 | 13 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever | 16 | 15.4 | 2.34 | 1.299 | 8.2 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
STL wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 29 | 108 | 14 | 0.130 | 2 | 10 | 0.188 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.107 | 0.165 | 0.125 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 26 | 79 | 16 | 0.203 | 0 | 6 | 0.308 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.195 | 0.317 | 0.216 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 18 | 46 | 8 | 0.174 | 1 | 4 | 0.339 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.074 | 0.228 | 0.104 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 36 | 134 | 36 | 0.269 | 7 | 29 | 0.365 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.342 | 0.437 | 0.444 | OK |
| Nick Fortes | C | 24 | 82 | 24 | 0.293 | 1 | 7 | 0.310 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.356 | 0.360 | 0.388 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 37 | 142 | 36 | 0.254 | 10 | 18 | 0.344 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.325 | 0.391 | OK |
| Jake Fraley | RF | 21 | 65 | 17 | 0.262 | 2 | 5 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.285 | 0.322 | 0.397 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 35 | 141 | 41 | 0.291 | 0 | 7 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.239 | 0.245 | OK |
| Yandy Díaz | 1B | 36 | 136 | 43 | 0.316 | 5 | 23 | 0.397 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.248 | 0.300 | 0.372 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 37 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 34 | 123 | 34 | 0.276 | 3 | 14 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.334 | 0.390 | 0.550 | OK |
| Trevor Story | SS | 37 | 151 | 30 | 0.199 | 2 | 18 | 0.236 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.174 | 0.212 | 0.199 | OK |
| Marcelo Mayer | 2B | 29 | 95 | 21 | 0.221 | 1 | 8 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.295 | 0.243 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 38 | 135 | 35 | 0.259 | 8 | 23 | 0.376 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.202 | 0.344 | 0.401 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 24 | 77 | 16 | 0.208 | 2 | 3 | 0.274 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.135 | 0.305 | 0.274 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 35 | 123 | 22 | 0.179 | 1 | 13 | 0.257 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.231 | 0.251 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 38 | 142 | 43 | 0.303 | 6 | 18 | 0.387 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.314 | 0.428 | 0.562 | OK |
| Jarren Duran | LF | 32 | 132 | 26 | 0.197 | 4 | 18 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.220 | 0.280 | 0.414 | OK |
| Masataka Yoshida | LF | 16 | 56 | 14 | 0.250 | 0 | 4 | 0.364 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.285 | 0.251 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nick Martinez | Starter | 7 | 41.3 | 1.74 | 1.041 | 6.1 | 28 | 4.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 72 | 4.1 | 4 | 0 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 16 | 14.2 | 2.54 | 0.845 | 10.1 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cole Sulser | Middle Reliever | 16 | 19.5 | 2.77 | 1.385 | 7.4 | 16 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | Middle Reliever | 6 | 4.2 | 6.43 | 2.381 | 12.9 | 6 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Ian Seymour | Middle Reliever | 15 | 15.1 | 2.98 | 1.258 | 11.9 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Payton Tolle | Starter | 3 | 17.2 | 2.09 | 0.756 | 12.0 | 23 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 90 | 4.2 | 4 | 2 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 13 | 12.2 | 0.74 | 0.820 | 11.8 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever | 15 | 15.1 | 3.58 | 1.258 | 11.3 | 19 | 0.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0.1 | 0 | 2 |
| Zack Kelly | Middle Reliever | 13 | 11.8 | 3.81 | 1.356 | 9.2 | 12 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Weissert | Middle Reliever | 16 | 12.1 | 5.95 | 1.736 | 13.4 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
TB wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| MIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | RF | 39 | 149 | 35 | 0.235 | 10 | 27 | 0.384 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.331 | 0.343 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 27 | 96 | 22 | 0.229 | 1 | 16 | 0.257 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.186 | 0.192 | 0.264 | OK |
| Brady House | 3B | 30 | 124 | 28 | 0.226 | 5 | 17 | 0.284 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.246 | 0.323 | 0.473 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 37 | 133 | 39 | 0.293 | 9 | 34 | 0.396 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.317 | 0.379 | 0.564 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 38 | 151 | 37 | 0.245 | 3 | 14 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.182 | 0.307 | 0.253 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 33 | 125 | 29 | 0.232 | 3 | 16 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.217 | 0.281 | 0.337 | OK |
| Jose Fernandez | DH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.220 | 0.327 | 0.286 | |
| Drew Millas | C | 18 | 56 | 10 | 0.179 | 1 | 4 | 0.246 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.211 | 0.257 | 0.429 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | 2B | 33 | 109 | 24 | 0.220 | 0 | 14 | 0.323 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.357 | 0.367 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 38 | 139 | 45 | 0.324 | 3 | 13 | 0.416 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.377 | 0.444 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 37 | 149 | 52 | 0.349 | 4 | 16 | 0.380 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.414 | 0.420 | 0.589 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | DH | 29 | 105 | 35 | 0.333 | 9 | 34 | 0.383 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.346 | 0.406 | 0.699 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | LF | 16 | 62 | 13 | 0.210 | 0 | 1 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.266 | 0.213 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 1B | 34 | 111 | 25 | 0.225 | 3 | 12 | 0.336 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.173 | 0.306 | 0.211 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 36 | 140 | 24 | 0.171 | 1 | 9 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.159 | 0.274 | 0.216 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 28 | 90 | 18 | 0.200 | 1 | 14 | 0.257 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.126 | 0.254 | 0.158 | OK |
| Leo Jiménez | 3B | 8 | 20 | 4 | 0.200 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.179 | 0.342 | 0.179 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 4 | 12 | 2 | 0.167 | 0 | 1 | 0.167 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.167 | 0.167 | 0.167 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Richard Lovelady | Starter | 8 | 5.8 | 1.55 | 2.414 | 12.4 | 8 | 4.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 77 | 4.1 | 4 | 3 |
| Gus Varland | Middle Reliever | 15 | 12.1 | 3.72 | 1.570 | 11.9 | 16 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| PJ Poulin | Middle Reliever | 19 | 15.4 | 4.09 | 1.688 | 8.2 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever | 12 | 23.0 | 3.91 | 1.304 | 7.0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mitchell Parker | Middle Reliever | 7 | 15.3 | 3.53 | 0.980 | 8.2 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Janson Junk | Starter | 7 | 37.4 | 2.89 | 1.070 | 6.5 | 27 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 87 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 |
| Tyler Phillips | Middle Reliever | 12 | 22.5 | 1.20 | 1.378 | 9.6 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 16 | 12.6 | 4.29 | 1.746 | 11.4 | 16 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| John King | Middle Reliever | 18 | 12.6 | 0.71 | 0.714 | 10.7 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Bender | Middle Reliever | 17 | 11.4 | 5.53 | 1.667 | 13.4 | 17 | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 |
WAS wins 4-3