MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

May 8, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
ATL @ LAD5 - 65 - 6LAD wins 6-553%enhanced_ml
CHC @ TEX7 - 47 - 4CHC wins 7-477%enhanced_ml
COL @ PHI3 - 63 - 6PHI wins 6-360%enhanced_ml
DET @ KC5 - 35 - 3DET wins 5-354%enhanced_ml
HOU @ CIN6 - 36 - 3HOU wins 6-359%enhanced_ml
LAA @ TOR7 - 37 - 3LAA wins 7-360%enhanced_ml
MIN @ CLE4 - 74 - 7CLE wins 7-463%enhanced_ml
NYM @ ARI6 - 46 - 4NYM wins 6-458%enhanced_ml
NYY @ MIL7 - 47 - 4NYY wins 7-463%enhanced_ml
OAK @ BAL8 - 38 - 3OAK wins 8-362%enhanced_ml
PIT @ SF4 - 14 - 1PIT wins 4-166%enhanced_ml
SEA @ CHW3 - 63 - 6CHW wins 6-363%enhanced_ml
STL @ SD6 - 36 - 3STL wins 6-368%enhanced_ml
TB @ BOS5 - 35 - 3TB wins 5-363%enhanced_ml
WAS @ MIA4 - 24 - 2WAS wins 4-266%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers

ATL 26-12 (5.61 RPG / 3.53 RA)
5 - 6
LAD 23-14 (5.3 RPG / 3.22 RA)
LAD WINS Target: ATL 5 - 6 LAD Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ATL122000000511
LAD00000010565

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff18
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drake BaldwinC 3815547 0.303 9300.379 55213 01 0.400 0.318 0.387 0.573 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 3814647 0.322 8230.374 54000 11 0.000 0.331 0.405 0.592 OK
Matt Olson1B 3814644 0.301 13330.388 55000 01 0.000 0.320 0.429 0.879 OK
Michael Harris IICF 2911031 0.282 6180.310 55210 02 0.400 0.229 0.238 0.341 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 3613135 0.267 2200.329 54112 11 0.250 0.220 0.335 0.334 OK
Dominic SmithDH 186322 0.349 4170.373 44310 00 0.750 0.302 0.326 0.422 OK
Austin Riley3B 3714129 0.206 5220.280 44000 02 0.000 0.193 0.231 0.421 OK
Mike YastrzemskiRF 279620 0.208 060.269 44210 01 0.500 0.244 0.256 0.289 OK
Jim JarvisSS 000 0.000 000.000 43100 11 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333
TEAM TOTALS 413811 55 310 0.289

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 3412932 0.248 6150.389 44110 01 0.250 0.187 0.365 0.309 OK
Will SmithC 2510027 0.270 3160.327 43010 10 0.000 0.297 0.354 0.411 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 3514039 0.279 3190.344 44000 01 0.000 0.309 0.372 0.433 OK
Andy PagesCF 3613646 0.338 8330.378 44110 01 0.250 0.377 0.405 0.737 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 3312128 0.231 4170.304 43111 10 0.333 0.216 0.308 0.243 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 3513835 0.254 4180.340 44112 02 0.250 0.305 0.379 0.507 OK
Miguel RojasSS 124113 0.317 140.333 43113 11 0.333 0.296 0.306 0.491 OK
Max Muncy3B 3411834 0.288 9130.391 33000 00 0.000 0.271 0.428 0.384 OK
Santiago Espinal2B 6193 0.158 020.158 33000 02 0.000 0.166 0.166 0.166 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34315 66 38 0.161

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris SaleStarter 742.02.14 0.90510.549 5.21221578 5.2 5 2
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 99.20.00 0.76112.713 1.11110116 1.1 1 1
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 1615.20.59 0.9219.516 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 1816.51.09 0.48512.523 0.23332133 0.2 1 3

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emmet SheehanStarter 629.65.47 1.38510.936 2.26552377 2.2 3 5
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 1714.41.87 0.6949.415 0.21000119 0.2 1 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 1511.51.57 0.87012.516 1.21000321 1.2 3 0
Blake TreinenMiddle Reliever 139.61.88 1.25011.212 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Will KleinMiddle Reliever 1013.53.33 1.48110.015 1.01001022 1.0 0 0
Jack DreyerMiddle Reliever 1615.72.87 1.08311.520 0.10000111 0.1 1 0
Edgardo HenriquezReliever 1212.14.46 1.3228.211 1.21000117 1.2 1 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-5


Chicago Cubs @ Texas Rangers

CHC 26-12 (5.47 RPG / 4.16 RA)
7 - 4
TEX 17-20 (3.76 RPG / 3.92 RA)
CHC WINS Target: CHC 7 - 4 TEX Confidence: 76.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CHC21100100278
TEX01000300045

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff19
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak9W

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.7
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-15
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 3614842 0.284 4280.363 55110 00 0.200 0.249 0.333 0.347 OK
Michael ConfortoDH 9259 0.360 150.500 53010 20 0.000 0.367 0.488 0.667 OK
Alex Bregman3B 3714834 0.230 3120.331 55000 01 0.000 0.170 0.337 0.236 OK
Ian HappLF 3613633 0.243 9170.376 54213 10 0.500 0.241 0.407 0.471 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 228426 0.310 6140.410 53010 21 0.000 0.291 0.374 0.561 OK
Michael Busch1B 3613731 0.226 3190.333 54212 11 0.500 0.331 0.454 0.596 OK
Carson KellyC 238726 0.299 190.384 55000 01 0.000 0.291 0.346 0.316 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 3713935 0.252 4160.320 44110 01 0.250 0.298 0.372 0.593 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 3612324 0.195 6230.315 42212 20 1.000 0.143 0.228 0.177 OK
TEAM TOTALS 43358 77 85 0.229

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoRF 3513841 0.297 4120.376 43000 12 0.000 0.325 0.425 0.356 OK
Ezequiel Duran2B 237322 0.301 2110.388 43111 12 0.333 0.358 0.465 0.672 OK
Corey SeagerSS 3613428 0.209 7190.316 44110 01 0.250 0.186 0.299 0.338 OK
Josh Jung3B 3312640 0.317 4190.374 44110 01 0.250 0.315 0.361 0.400 OK
Evan CarterCF 3210420 0.192 4110.303 44213 00 0.500 0.143 0.238 0.316 OK
Joc PedersonDH 277514 0.187 150.281 44000 01 0.000 0.147 0.190 0.158 OK
Jake Burger1B 3614430 0.208 5180.243 44000 02 0.000 0.174 0.220 0.306 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 8183 0.167 010.400 33000 01 0.000 0.161 0.379 0.226 OK
Danny JansenC 237716 0.208 280.299 33000 01 0.000 0.190 0.333 0.441 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 44 211 0.156

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ben BrownStarter 1224.52.20 1.0618.824 4.243327103 4.2 7 3
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 76.10.00 0.9848.96 2.10000215 2.1 2 0
Phil MatonMiddle Reliever 106.710.75 2.23914.811 1.01110117 1.0 1 1
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 1613.04.15 1.76911.817 1.00000110 1.0 1 0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kumar RockerStarter 628.24.79 1.4897.724 3.15443497 3.1 4 4
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 1517.51.03 0.5148.216 1.00001018 1.0 0 0
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1415.11.79 0.7283.66 1.21110016 1.2 0 1
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 1611.96.05 1.68112.116 1.00000010 1.0 0 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 1715.03.00 1.8007.813 0.21002028 0.2 0 0
Gavin CollyerMiddle Reliever 106.50.00 0.9239.77 1.11222125 1.1 1 2

Game Summary

CHC wins 7-4


Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies

COL 15-23 (4.29 RPG / 4.95 RA)
3 - 6
PHI 17-21 (3.89 RPG / 5.0 RA)
PHI WINS Target: COL 3 - 6 PHI Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
COL00200000138
PHI02000310x69

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed5.9
Run Diff-11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jordan BeckLF 186210 0.161 190.197 54211 11 0.500 0.185 0.217 0.354 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 166016 0.267 180.362 55100 01 0.200 0.307 0.417 0.464 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 3513236 0.273 4190.340 44111 02 0.250 0.323 0.379 0.557 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 3212729 0.228 9140.305 43011 01 0.000 0.149 0.227 0.308 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 248013 0.162 130.247 43000 12 0.000 0.128 0.212 0.188 OK
Willi Castro2B 269424 0.255 1120.327 44100 01 0.250 0.280 0.355 0.306 OK
Kyle Karros3B 339922 0.222 150.347 43200 11 0.667 0.306 0.411 0.358 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 3412724 0.189 190.241 44000 00 0.000 0.101 0.189 0.118 OK
Brett SullivanDH 155313 0.245 060.273 44100 01 0.250 0.253 0.303 0.390 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38348 33 310 0.235

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 3715336 0.235 4120.291 44110 00 0.250 0.216 0.228 0.322 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 3813930 0.216 12210.355 43110 11 0.333 0.250 0.349 0.518 OK
Bryce Harper1B 3813838 0.275 9230.369 43110 10 0.333 0.354 0.452 0.834 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 3613332 0.241 3120.309 44111 02 0.250 0.265 0.305 0.401 OK
Brandon MarshLF 3112040 0.333 4190.354 44100 01 0.250 0.417 0.439 0.549 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 206818 0.265 170.329 43000 11 0.000 0.263 0.276 0.316 OK
Bryson Stott2B 2810321 0.204 3120.255 44212 01 0.500 0.184 0.209 0.526 OK
Edmundo Sosa3B 144712 0.255 170.271 44213 00 0.500 0.276 0.279 0.312 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 3110629 0.274 070.336 44000 01 0.000 0.288 0.325 0.399 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36339 66 37 0.273

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chase DollanderStarter 836.43.46 1.18110.442 4.15221489 4.1 4 2
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 1313.27.50 2.0458.212 1.02331129 1.0 1 3
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 1121.31.27 0.9399.322 1.02111025 1.0 0 1
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever 1312.65.00 1.42910.014 1.20000211 1.2 2 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jesús LuzardoStarter 738.85.34 1.34011.851 3.26221478 3.2 4 2
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 87.22.50 1.25012.510 2.11000220 2.1 2 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 1614.54.34 1.3109.916 1.00001221 1.0 2 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 179.37.74 2.79615.516 1.00110214 1.0 2 1
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 1411.62.33 1.2937.09 1.01001022 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 6-3


Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

DET 18-20 (4.34 RPG / 4.18 RA)
5 - 3
KC 17-21 (4.13 RPG / 4.55 RA)
DET WINS Target: DET 5 - 3 KC Confidence: 54.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
DET20000020158
KC00000030035

DET Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

KC Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Matt VierlingCF 217317 0.233 1120.296 54100 13 0.250 0.222 0.300 0.406 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 3513641 0.301 2160.395 54211 10 0.500 0.212 0.277 0.278 OK
Jahmai JonesDH 8226 0.273 130.304 54011 03 0.000 0.225 0.271 0.388 OK
Dillon DinglerC 2810727 0.252 6250.322 54211 11 0.500 0.235 0.262 0.414 OK
Riley GreeneLF 3713440 0.299 4190.397 44112 02 0.250 0.304 0.385 0.434 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 17597 0.119 030.175 43000 00 0.000 0.196 0.241 0.209 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 3511925 0.210 6140.333 44000 04 0.000 0.135 0.242 0.328 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 11366 0.167 030.231 44000 03 0.000 0.147 0.224 0.179 OK
Zack ShortSS 130 0.000 000.000 43210 10 0.667 0.667 0.750 1.000
TEAM TOTALS 40348 55 416 0.235

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 3514038 0.271 3140.333 55000 00 0.000 0.267 0.324 0.394 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 3815145 0.298 4170.368 54113 10 0.250 0.339 0.387 0.605 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 3513326 0.195 5180.279 44000 01 0.000 0.261 0.303 0.467 OK
Salvador PerezDH 3714629 0.199 5170.237 43210 00 0.667 0.171 0.231 0.243 OK
Carter JensenC 3110925 0.229 6170.320 43000 12 0.000 0.133 0.251 0.169 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 3010625 0.236 360.319 43000 11 0.000 0.210 0.295 0.379 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 299724 0.247 3120.368 42000 20 0.000 0.359 0.478 0.626 OK
Michael Massey2B 216415 0.234 290.250 44210 01 0.500 0.243 0.251 0.446 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 288624 0.279 380.347 44000 03 0.000 0.263 0.344 0.386 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38325 33 58 0.156

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Keider MonteroStarter 632.53.60 1.0466.925 4.22002481 4.2 4 0
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 107.43.65 1.48612.210 1.11000113 1.1 1 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 1716.50.55 1.3337.113 0.22332132 0.2 1 3
Burch SmithMiddle Reliever 711.11.62 1.17113.016 1.10001120 1.1 1 0
Brant HurterMiddle Reliever 1515.41.75 0.9097.613 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kris BubicStarter 740.23.36 1.1449.442 4.23223798 4.2 7 2
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 1614.43.75 1.4588.814 1.10000215 1.1 2 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 1413.23.41 1.2129.514 0.13221230 0.1 2 2
Nick MearsMiddle Reliever 1512.52.16 1.2007.210 1.20000212 1.2 2 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 1514.51.86 0.62112.420 1.02110323 1.0 3 1

Game Summary

DET wins 5-3


Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds

HOU 16-23 (5.0 RPG / 5.69 RA)
6 - 3
CIN 20-19 (4.0 RPG / 5.03 RA)
HOU WINS Target: HOU 6 - 3 CIN Confidence: 59.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
HOU002130000610
CIN00000101137

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff-11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed6.9
Run Diff-31
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak7L

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jose Altuve2B 3413332 0.241 390.327 54000 10 0.000 0.197 0.228 0.293 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 3814145 0.319 12270.423 55210 02 0.400 0.220 0.303 0.319 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 3211531 0.270 3150.368 54112 11 0.250 0.304 0.425 0.440 OK
Christian Walker1B 3713642 0.309 9270.379 55210 01 0.400 0.375 0.432 0.679 OK
Cam SmithRF 3512527 0.216 3150.303 54210 11 0.500 0.228 0.267 0.313 OK
Brice MatthewsCF 216815 0.221 4120.280 54113 13 0.250 0.242 0.314 0.540 OK
Zach DezenzoLF 130 0.000 000.000 55200 01 0.400 0.400 0.400 0.400
Christian VázquezC 155317 0.321 2110.379 43000 12 0.000 0.257 0.296 0.336 OK
Nick AllenSS 5144 0.286 000.375 43011 11 0.000 0.286 0.375 0.357 OK
TEAM TOTALS 433710 66 612 0.270

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
TJ FriedlCF 3212625 0.198 270.279 55000 01 0.000 0.213 0.279 0.347 OK
JJ BledayLF 103310 0.303 470.410 55100 02 0.200 0.302 0.389 0.693 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 3815140 0.265 10280.337 55000 03 0.000 0.222 0.286 0.338 OK
Sal Stewart1B 3814335 0.245 10300.333 42000 20 0.000 0.160 0.234 0.313 OK
Nathaniel LoweDH 206819 0.279 6150.364 42212 20 1.000 0.284 0.359 0.565 OK
Spencer SteerRF 3512130 0.248 6120.328 43000 12 0.000 0.315 0.390 0.498 OK
Tyler StephensonC 278916 0.180 260.288 44210 00 0.500 0.204 0.295 0.278 OK
Matt McLain2B 3413227 0.205 3100.309 44111 00 0.250 0.171 0.233 0.306 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 299513 0.137 230.196 44100 00 0.250 0.180 0.219 0.332 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39347 33 58 0.206

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mike BurrowsStarter 736.56.16 1.6998.936 2.22005383 2.2 3 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 1313.83.91 1.5229.815 0.2000009 0.2 0 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 1311.410.26 2.54415.820 1.20110115 1.2 1 1
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 1413.65.29 1.3977.912 0.11000015 0.1 0 0
Kai-Wei TengMiddle Reliever 1420.22.67 1.0899.822 1.20000112 1.2 1 0
AJ BlubaughMiddle Reliever 1420.65.68 1.5058.720 1.01110214 1.0 2 1
Bennett SousaReliever 43.15.81 1.61311.64 1.03110119 1.0 1 1

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick LodoloStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 3.15333593 3.1 5 3
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 1615.22.96 1.3169.516 1.22332242 1.2 2 3
Graham AshcraftMiddle Reliever 1817.52.06 1.42910.320 0.20000113 0.2 1 0
Connor PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1817.25.23 1.86011.021 1.10000318 1.1 3 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 1813.44.03 2.01514.121 0.12001023 0.1 0 0
Pierce JohnsonMiddle Reliever 1610.35.24 1.84511.413 1.21000121 1.2 1 0

Game Summary

HOU wins 6-3


Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays

LAA 15-23 (4.47 RPG / 4.84 RA)
7 - 3
TOR 16-21 (3.97 RPG / 4.57 RA)
LAA WINS Target: LAA 7 - 3 TOR Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAA103000003712
TOR01002000038

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak4L

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 3814933 0.221 6180.335 54111 12 0.250 0.196 0.317 0.428 OK
Mike TroutCF 3713134 0.260 11230.429 55313 01 0.600 0.315 0.450 0.543 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 3413635 0.257 3200.309 55210 01 0.400 0.315 0.331 0.450 OK
Jorge SolerDH 3412229 0.238 8280.342 54011 01 0.000 0.255 0.389 0.481 OK
Yoán Moncada3B 268814 0.159 380.288 55112 01 0.200 0.110 0.160 0.165 OK
Jo AdellRF 3815139 0.258 4210.298 44100 00 0.250 0.260 0.298 0.278 OK
Josh LoweLF 279114 0.154 4100.204 44210 01 0.500 0.081 0.091 0.139 OK
Sebastián RiveroC 393 0.333 000.333 44100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Adam Frazier2B 154713 0.277 150.346 43110 10 0.333 0.222 0.236 0.438 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413812 77 27 0.316

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 197213 0.181 260.280 55000 02 0.000 0.183 0.276 0.242 OK
Myles StrawRF 144113 0.317 130.408 54100 10 0.250 0.326 0.433 0.535 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 3613443 0.321 2160.405 44210 00 0.500 0.239 0.312 0.277 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 3613433 0.246 10230.331 44112 01 0.250 0.308 0.392 0.730 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 3111627 0.233 490.310 44100 01 0.250 0.225 0.305 0.349 OK
Ernie Clement2B 3614641 0.281 190.305 44100 00 0.250 0.179 0.230 0.238 OK
Davis SchneiderLF 15415 0.122 050.294 43100 11 0.333 0.079 0.294 0.143 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 3211932 0.269 3170.296 43111 10 0.333 0.250 0.279 0.306 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 154710 0.213 360.275 44000 02 0.000 0.272 0.358 0.558 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 33 37 0.229

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Reid DetmersStarter 738.64.43 1.19210.344 3.27331590 3.2 5 3
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 1317.85.06 1.23612.625 2.10001017 2.1 0 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 1316.13.91 1.30411.721 1.01001123 1.0 1 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 1710.33.50 2.13612.214 1.00000012 1.0 0 0
Brent SuterMiddle Reliever 1419.74.57 1.5239.120 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dylan CeaseStarter 737.43.13 1.36413.556 2.28440373 2.2 3 4
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 1816.10.56 1.30416.229 1.11000012 1.1 0 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 1715.51.74 1.0325.810 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 1714.56.21 1.93118.029 0.21000116 0.2 1 0
Braydon FisherMiddle Reliever 1815.73.44 1.40111.520 1.10000012 1.1 0 0
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever 188.77.24 2.06917.617 0.21000011 0.2 0 0
Tommy NanceReliever 1612.65.71 1.50814.320 1.11332228 1.1 2 3

Game Summary

LAA wins 7-3


Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians

MIN 16-22 (4.82 RPG / 5.13 RA)
4 - 7
CLE 20-19 (4.15 RPG / 4.26 RA)
CLE WINS Target: MIN 4 - 7 CLE Confidence: 62.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIN40000000044
CLE22102000x79

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed6.3
Run Diff-12
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 3514836 0.243 11170.298 43110 10 0.333 0.211 0.256 0.548 OK
Austin MartinLF 237724 0.312 160.449 43010 10 0.000 0.320 0.406 0.345 OK
Ryan JeffersC 269529 0.305 5220.402 43000 12 0.000 0.347 0.412 0.707 OK
Josh BellDH 3412727 0.213 3180.294 44214 00 0.500 0.149 0.180 0.172 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 3613532 0.237 1150.314 44000 01 0.000 0.353 0.495 0.554 OK
Brooks LeeSS 3312132 0.264 5210.321 44110 01 0.250 0.329 0.372 0.489 OK
Victor Caratini1B 258517 0.200 1120.301 44000 01 0.000 0.108 0.201 0.117 OK
Matt WallnerRF 3010720 0.187 4100.287 33000 01 0.000 0.221 0.318 0.411 OK
Royce Lewis3B 237713 0.169 3110.270 33000 00 0.000 0.107 0.183 0.165 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 44 36 0.129

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanLF 3513729 0.212 190.306 55100 00 0.200 0.149 0.258 0.178 OK
Angel MartínezRF 2710330 0.291 5150.336 43110 11 0.333 0.275 0.328 0.423 OK
José Ramírez3B 3914230 0.211 6140.341 44000 00 0.000 0.183 0.343 0.239 OK
Rhys Hoskins1B 258217 0.207 3120.333 43112 12 0.333 0.202 0.324 0.512 OK
David FryDH 144011 0.275 360.396 43112 10 0.333 0.245 0.368 0.593 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 8265 0.192 020.382 44111 00 0.250 0.238 0.403 0.238 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 3712232 0.262 3190.343 43110 10 0.333 0.205 0.296 0.236 OK
Austin HedgesC 144514 0.311 130.360 44112 01 0.250 0.336 0.404 0.575 OK
Petey HalpinCF 3122 0.167 010.231 44210 00 0.500 0.167 0.231 0.167 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37339 77 44 0.273

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Connor PrielippStarter 314.03.86 0.9299.615 2.04332150 2.0 1 3
Justin TopaMiddle Reliever 2113.59.33 2.2968.713 1.01111124 1.0 1 1
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 1514.85.47 1.6229.716 1.00000012 1.0 0 0
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 1512.33.66 1.8708.812 1.01221021 1.0 0 2
Kody FunderburkMiddle Reliever 1710.63.40 1.7928.510 0.12000116 0.1 1 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever 713.85.87 1.7399.114 1.20000111 1.2 1 0
Anthony BandaReliever 1811.710.77 1.88010.814 1.01110011 1.0 0 1

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 740.42.45 0.9419.844 2.01333144 2.0 1 3
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 1717.13.16 1.22812.123 1.01000113 1.0 1 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever 1912.62.86 1.11119.327 1.00000217 1.0 2 0
Matt FestaMiddle Reliever 1614.55.59 1.31010.617 1.00000010 1.0 0 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 95.69.64 2.50011.27 0.10110212 0.1 2 1
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever 148.10.00 1.9755.65 1.21000018 1.2 0 0
Colin HoldermanReliever 711.31.59 0.7088.811 1.01000011 1.0 0 0
Peyton PalletteReliever 1114.25.07 1.5499.515 1.0000009 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 7-4


New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks

NYM 14-23 (3.62 RPG / 4.38 RA)
6 - 4
ARI 17-19 (4.47 RPG / 5.17 RA)
NYM WINS Target: NYM 6 - 4 ARI Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYM200000220611
ARI00100300047

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Juan SotoLF 218023 0.288 4100.383 54000 10 0.000 0.217 0.294 0.494 OK
Bo BichetteSS 3715236 0.237 2160.276 55000 02 0.000 0.239 0.284 0.281 OK
Brett Baty3B 289722 0.227 1110.290 55211 01 0.400 0.201 0.360 0.274 OK
Mark Vientos1B 269120 0.220 4140.273 55212 00 0.400 0.210 0.258 0.478 OK
Carson BengeCF 2910021 0.210 3100.282 44110 00 0.250 0.291 0.371 0.537 OK
Marcus Semien2B 3713230 0.227 2130.285 44000 02 0.000 0.248 0.313 0.405 OK
MJ MelendezRF 133613 0.361 260.439 44210 00 0.500 0.398 0.475 0.785 OK
Francisco AlvarezDH 299923 0.232 490.319 43210 10 0.667 0.253 0.312 0.316 OK
Luis TorrensC 11335 0.152 030.200 44213 00 0.500 0.112 0.196 0.182 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403811 66 25 0.289

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Geraldo PerdomoSS 3311126 0.234 2110.356 55211 03 0.400 0.188 0.338 0.323 OK
Ildemaro Vargas2B 2711038 0.345 6190.363 44111 01 0.250 0.268 0.282 0.399 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 3412132 0.264 5200.359 44110 00 0.250 0.202 0.271 0.391 OK
Adrian Del CastilloDH 187014 0.200 2130.230 44112 01 0.250 0.161 0.181 0.224 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 3311331 0.274 5170.325 44100 02 0.250 0.283 0.390 0.394 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 134712 0.255 040.340 43000 11 0.000 0.368 0.465 0.426 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 145212 0.231 160.281 44100 02 0.250 0.182 0.211 0.347 OK
Jose Fernandez1B 248928 0.315 3120.351 42000 21 0.000 0.229 0.329 0.296 OK
Jorge BarrosaCF 186213 0.210 050.258 44000 02 0.000 0.165 0.219 0.303 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 44 313 0.206

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nolan McLeanStarter 738.43.05 0.96412.051 4.22112581 4.2 5 1
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 1310.55.14 1.61917.120 1.14331232 1.1 2 3
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 1513.75.26 1.1689.915 0.21000115 0.2 1 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 1511.91.51 1.00813.618 1.10000318 1.1 3 0
Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever 1613.71.97 1.2419.214 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryne NelsonStarter 729.07.14 1.5528.728 4.14222388 4.1 3 2
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.10000012 1.1 0 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.14220123 1.1 1 2
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 0.13220120 0.1 1 2
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 1.20000014 1.2 0 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 6-4


New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers

NYY 26-12 (5.5 RPG / 3.37 RA)
7 - 4
MIL 19-16 (5.17 RPG / 3.86 RA)
NYY WINS Target: NYY 7 - 4 MIL Confidence: 63.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYY10300200176
MIL00000200246

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.3
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff34
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff29
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 3111320 0.177 3180.307 53000 21 0.000 0.227 0.299 0.394 OK
Ben Rice1B 2910435 0.337 11250.453 54111 10 0.250 0.405 0.475 0.799 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 3813737 0.270 15290.401 54111 11 0.250 0.344 0.447 0.814 OK
Cody BellingerLF 3613239 0.295 5260.392 54011 00 0.000 0.406 0.480 0.785 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 3513228 0.212 4130.295 43110 11 0.333 0.203 0.273 0.357 OK
Spencer JonesDH 000 0.000 000.000 44112 01 0.250 0.250 0.250 1.000
José CaballeroSS 3612532 0.256 4130.311 43111 10 0.333 0.201 0.308 0.302 OK
Austin WellsC 288617 0.198 350.333 44111 00 0.250 0.193 0.318 0.280 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 258317 0.205 290.267 43000 12 0.000 0.308 0.320 0.492 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40326 77 76 0.188

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 296 0.667 010.700 54000 11 0.000 0.667 0.700 1.000 OK
Brice Turang2B 3211836 0.305 5220.439 54112 10 0.250 0.387 0.533 0.563 OK
William ContrerasC 3213238 0.288 3230.361 54000 12 0.000 0.286 0.349 0.343 OK
Gary SánchezDH 206614 0.212 4110.373 44212 00 0.500 0.201 0.336 0.303 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 3123 0.250 140.308 44000 00 0.000 0.250 0.308 0.500 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 249118 0.198 0110.260 44110 01 0.250 0.201 0.251 0.259 OK
Brandon LockridgeCF 227622 0.289 090.372 43110 10 0.333 0.327 0.417 0.381 OK
Sal FrelickRF 2910522 0.210 370.303 42000 21 0.000 0.250 0.321 0.331 OK
Joey OrtizSS 237414 0.189 080.265 44100 01 0.250 0.182 0.265 0.182 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39336 44 66 0.182

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max FriedStarter 851.52.45 0.9137.543 4.24222498 4.2 4 2
David BednarMiddle Reliever 1514.43.75 1.59711.218 2.10003035 2.1 0 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 179.04.00 2.33320.020 1.01000015 1.0 0 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 1713.21.36 0.9854.87 1.01221227 1.0 2 2

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob MisiorowskiStarter 737.32.90 1.01914.259 3.124473104 3.1 3 4
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 1511.74.62 1.19710.814 1.21000117 1.2 1 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 1720.22.67 1.53515.635 1.02220117 1.0 1 2
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 1313.03.46 1.15410.415 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
DL HallMiddle Reliever 1514.21.90 1.40812.720 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Grant AndersonMiddle Reliever 1813.54.00 1.33310.015 1.01110014 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

NYY wins 7-4


Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles

OAK 19-18 (4.46 RPG / 4.73 RA)
8 - 3
BAL 17-21 (4.58 RPG / 5.55 RA)
OAK WINS Target: OAK 8 - 3 BAL Confidence: 62.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
OAK114000101811
BAL00002000138

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed7.1
Run Diff-22
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Kurtz1B 3613133 0.252 5180.413 55010 01 0.000 0.297 0.393 0.345 OK
Shea LangeliersC 3313947 0.338 11200.391 54211 10 0.500 0.409 0.449 0.822 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 3513229 0.220 5200.311 55311 01 0.600 0.240 0.343 0.532 OK
Brent RookerDH 207814 0.179 4150.258 55000 03 0.000 0.239 0.307 0.422 OK
Carlos CortesRF 227527 0.360 4140.415 54111 10 0.250 0.384 0.413 0.527 OK
Jacob WilsonSS 3615144 0.291 3180.308 54210 00 0.500 0.314 0.349 0.475 OK
Lawrence ButlerCF 269318 0.194 3120.306 44114 03 0.250 0.192 0.373 0.381 OK
Zack Gelof3B 144913 0.265 3100.308 44110 00 0.250 0.319 0.377 0.727 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 2910434 0.327 1120.385 42111 10 0.500 0.391 0.410 0.489 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423711 88 38 0.297

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 3713337 0.278 1120.429 53110 20 0.333 0.159 0.440 0.183 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 3715932 0.201 9200.260 55112 03 0.200 0.187 0.205 0.271 OK
Adley RutschmanC 207823 0.295 4180.353 55100 01 0.200 0.229 0.287 0.417 OK
Pete Alonso1B 3814232 0.225 7210.329 54111 03 0.250 0.313 0.395 0.651 OK
Tyler O'NeillRF 13408 0.200 150.360 54100 12 0.250 0.172 0.363 0.187 OK
Coby MayoDH 289516 0.168 3110.233 44100 00 0.250 0.175 0.188 0.241 OK
Leody TaverasCF 237722 0.286 2180.402 43000 11 0.000 0.243 0.357 0.370 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 3211830 0.254 6240.276 44100 02 0.250 0.188 0.219 0.262 OK
Blaze Alexander3B 247917 0.215 020.271 43100 11 0.333 0.294 0.320 0.309 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41358 33 513 0.229

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob LopezStarter 729.36.76 1.9457.123 3.13003788 3.1 7 0
Jack PerkinsMiddle Reliever 913.54.00 1.25912.719 1.02221129 1.0 1 2
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 2014.23.80 2.32412.019 1.2000019 1.2 1 0
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 1210.12.67 1.3864.55 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 1514.11.91 0.7808.914 0.20000111 0.2 1 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 1712.19.67 2.23111.916 1.13111332 1.1 3 1

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle BradishStarter 733.35.14 1.8629.535 2.26551265 2.2 2 5
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 1815.60.58 0.44911.019 0.20002123 0.2 1 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 1811.21.61 0.6258.811 1.20000116 1.2 1 0
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 63.518.00 3.71415.46 1.01110012 1.0 0 1
Keegan AkinMiddle Reliever 65.212.12 2.1158.75 1.02110220 1.0 2 1
Dietrich EnnsMiddle Reliever 66.62.73 1.66712.39 0.10000112 0.1 1 0
Lou TrivinoReliever 10.2270.00 35.0000.00 1.22110120 1.2 1 1

Game Summary

OAK wins 8-3


Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants

PIT 21-17 (4.87 RPG / 4.21 RA)
4 - 1
SF 14-23 (3.11 RPG / 4.24 RA)
PIT WINS Target: PIT 4 - 1 SF Confidence: 65.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PIT12000100046
SF00000100014

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs2.4
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-22
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jared Triolo3B 8306 0.200 010.273 44000 00 0.000 0.216 0.275 0.279 OK
Nick Gonzales2B 3112138 0.314 0170.366 44310 00 0.750 0.295 0.383 0.322 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 3713234 0.258 4220.404 43111 10 0.333 0.264 0.425 0.404 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 2911722 0.188 3130.252 44000 02 0.000 0.248 0.322 0.397 OK
Oneil CruzCF 3515037 0.247 9280.311 44111 01 0.250 0.199 0.267 0.275 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 3011229 0.259 2150.325 43000 10 0.000 0.340 0.404 0.568 OK
Joey BartC 154811 0.229 230.275 44000 00 0.000 0.288 0.305 0.480 OK
Nick Yorke1B 166113 0.213 130.290 44000 01 0.000 0.158 0.211 0.273 OK
Billy CookRF 5142 0.143 000.143 33112 01 0.333 0.143 0.143 0.143 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 44 25 0.182

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jung Hoo LeeRF 3613235 0.265 2110.315 44100 01 0.250 0.148 0.193 0.191 OK
Luis Arraez2B 3413342 0.316 0110.340 44100 01 0.250 0.354 0.359 0.508 OK
Casey SchmittDH 3111534 0.296 6180.344 44000 01 0.000 0.282 0.326 0.576 OK
Rafael Devers1B 3714031 0.221 3150.265 42000 21 0.000 0.272 0.329 0.500 OK
Matt Chapman3B 3613732 0.234 1120.309 44111 01 0.250 0.077 0.151 0.113 OK
Willy AdamesSS 3614428 0.194 360.232 43000 10 0.000 0.156 0.171 0.217 OK
Heliot RamosLF 3413133 0.252 3140.283 44100 02 0.250 0.188 0.199 0.328 OK
Drew GilbertCF 165014 0.280 250.321 33000 01 0.000 0.298 0.332 0.400 OK
Jesus RodriguezC 394 0.444 120.444 33000 00 0.000 0.444 0.444 0.778 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 11 38 0.129

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Carmen MlodzinskiStarter 731.95.08 1.59911.340 3.23002482 3.2 4 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 1716.23.89 1.2965.610 2.11111124 2.1 1 1
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 1918.31.48 0.71012.325 1.00000219 1.0 2 0
Isaac MattsonMiddle Reliever 1814.94.23 1.6117.913 1.00000111 1.0 1 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 1511.93.78 1.68116.622 1.0000009 1.0 0 0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Robbie RayStarter 738.53.04 1.0919.440 2.24331269 2.2 2 3
Ryan WalkerMiddle Reliever 1512.86.33 1.9539.113 2.01000018 2.0 0 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 1614.43.12 0.9038.113 1.11110116 1.1 1 1
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 1513.91.29 1.15111.718 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Matt GageMiddle Reliever 1710.61.70 1.6047.69 1.00001120 1.0 1 0
Joel PegueroMiddle Reliever 22.00.00 0.5004.51 1.00000014 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 4-1


Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox

SEA 18-20 (4.03 RPG / 3.92 RA)
3 - 6
CHW 17-20 (4.19 RPG / 4.62 RA)
CHW WINS Target: SEA 3 - 6 CHW Confidence: 62.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SEA00000100239
CHW21000000368

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brendan Donovan3B 175617 0.304 380.429 54100 10 0.250 0.287 0.433 0.404 OK
Cal RaleighC 3413523 0.170 7170.255 54311 10 0.750 0.094 0.174 0.216 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 3815039 0.260 5170.327 54000 12 0.000 0.265 0.300 0.492 OK
Josh Naylor1B 3513732 0.234 4170.298 55111 01 0.200 0.315 0.353 0.394 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 3813636 0.265 3120.354 55000 01 0.000 0.173 0.266 0.262 OK
J.P. CrawfordSS 2910121 0.208 4110.370 54111 12 0.250 0.219 0.370 0.487 OK
Luke RaleyRF 268522 0.259 5140.315 44100 01 0.250 0.158 0.228 0.388 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 236719 0.284 3110.347 43100 10 0.333 0.318 0.366 0.470 OK
Cole Young2B 3813437 0.276 3200.342 43100 11 0.333 0.297 0.330 0.402 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42369 33 68 0.250

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 175814 0.241 180.366 54110 11 0.250 0.287 0.410 0.376 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 3512830 0.234 14280.369 54112 11 0.250 0.204 0.318 0.527 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 3412727 0.213 7180.348 55000 02 0.000 0.204 0.316 0.377 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 3512929 0.225 9230.333 54213 10 0.500 0.196 0.324 0.374 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 3413137 0.282 250.358 44110 00 0.250 0.359 0.416 0.490 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 2610025 0.250 2140.280 43000 11 0.000 0.337 0.354 0.402 OK
Jarred KelenicRF 4114 0.364 000.417 44210 01 0.500 0.364 0.417 0.364 OK
Tristan PetersCF 247118 0.254 040.312 43000 12 0.000 0.242 0.317 0.245 OK
Drew RomoC 6163 0.188 340.458 43111 11 0.333 0.207 0.477 0.828 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40348 66 69 0.235

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emerson HancockStarter 741.22.62 0.97110.046 4.24333691 4.2 6 3
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 1614.36.29 1.46915.725 1.11000116 1.1 1 0
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 1916.92.13 1.4798.516 1.00001225 1.0 2 0
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 1813.42.01 1.4188.713 1.02000018 1.0 0 0
Cooper CriswellMiddle Reliever 1316.12.24 0.8708.415 0.21332023 0.2 0 3

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sean BurkeStarter 739.22.76 1.0207.332 3.230044106 3.2 4 0
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 2.13000121 2.1 1 0
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.00001218 1.0 2 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 1.00110111 1.0 1 1
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever 20.390.00 20.00030.01 1.03221031 1.0 0 2

Game Summary

CHW wins 6-3


St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres

STL 22-15 (4.76 RPG / 4.76 RA)
6 - 3
SD 22-15 (4.41 RPG / 4.24 RA)
STL WINS Target: STL 6 - 3 SD Confidence: 67.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
STL002000112610
SD00100020037

STL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff15
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 3613833 0.239 7180.359 55100 02 0.200 0.204 0.317 0.322 OK
Iván HerreraC 3713232 0.242 4170.402 54212 10 0.500 0.236 0.370 0.393 OK
Alec Burleson1B 3514038 0.271 6300.348 54110 11 0.250 0.266 0.341 0.507 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 3513442 0.313 10270.388 55213 02 0.400 0.336 0.435 0.628 OK
Nolan GormanDH 3211726 0.222 4200.293 54110 10 0.250 0.222 0.290 0.452 OK
Masyn WinnSS 3112132 0.264 1150.333 44000 00 0.000 0.264 0.318 0.384 OK
Nathan ChurchLF 2710124 0.238 4130.264 44000 01 0.000 0.235 0.240 0.362 OK
César Prieto3B 000 0.000 000.000 44211 01 0.500 0.500 0.500 1.250
Victor Scott IICF 329318 0.194 150.255 43110 12 0.333 0.224 0.282 0.309 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413710 66 49 0.270

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson MerrillCF 3513932 0.230 4180.296 54111 11 0.250 0.306 0.363 0.490 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 3512935 0.271 6210.352 54000 13 0.000 0.274 0.350 0.443 OK
Manny Machado3B 3512425 0.202 5180.313 54111 01 0.250 0.161 0.248 0.364 OK
Gavin Sheets1B 269320 0.215 390.263 55211 00 0.400 0.189 0.263 0.341 OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 3513534 0.252 0120.320 44000 02 0.000 0.208 0.232 0.267 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 259329 0.312 2100.340 43000 00 0.000 0.276 0.288 0.540 OK
Ramón LaureanoLF 3212429 0.234 5190.312 43000 12 0.000 0.158 0.304 0.316 OK
Freddy FerminC 19609 0.150 030.264 42100 20 0.500 0.102 0.193 0.164 OK
Sung-Mun Song2B 262 0.333 020.333 44200 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.500 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40337 33 59 0.212

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael McGreevyStarter 738.42.58 0.9385.624 2.24112490 2.2 4 1
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 1816.62.17 0.96410.820 2.10000113 2.1 1 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 1814.54.34 1.5178.714 1.00000219 1.0 2 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 1712.28.85 2.54114.820 0.23220122 0.2 1 2
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 1714.03.86 1.3579.014 1.10000113 1.1 1 0
Gordon GraceffoMiddle Reliever 1516.12.24 1.1185.610 1.00003029 1.0 0 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Griffin CanningStarter 15.01.80 1.20012.67 4.15221587 4.1 5 2
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 1717.11.05 0.58517.934 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 1210.31.75 0.9714.45 1.21110215 1.2 2 1
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 1617.26.28 1.51213.125 0.11112029 0.1 0 1
Jeremiah EstradaMiddle Reliever 98.55.29 1.29413.813 1.23221126 1.2 1 2

Game Summary

STL wins 6-3


Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

TB 25-12 (4.51 RPG / 4.0 RA)
5 - 3
BOS 16-22 (4.03 RPG / 4.32 RA)
TB WINS Target: TB 5 - 3 BOS Confidence: 62.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TB00012002059
BOS10000200036

TB Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed1.5
Run Diff20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak7W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 3513343 0.323 5230.401 55210 00 0.400 0.290 0.328 0.491 OK
Ryan ViladeRF 123511 0.314 180.368 54112 11 0.250 0.265 0.323 0.440 OK
Junior Caminero3B 3613836 0.261 10180.352 54211 11 0.500 0.247 0.403 0.441 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 3513135 0.267 7290.361 54100 12 0.250 0.392 0.459 0.491 OK
Jonny DeLucaCF 186518 0.277 170.319 54111 11 0.250 0.290 0.335 0.380 OK
Ben Williamson2B 258722 0.253 0110.330 55000 02 0.000 0.333 0.411 0.378 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 3413841 0.297 070.327 53000 20 0.000 0.272 0.281 0.288 OK
Nick FortesC 237922 0.278 170.296 44211 00 0.500 0.266 0.278 0.298 OK
Taylor WallsSS 257615 0.197 060.307 43000 01 0.000 0.171 0.328 0.206 OK
TEAM TOTALS 43369 55 68 0.250

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 3112825 0.195 4180.259 44110 00 0.250 0.227 0.291 0.480 OK
Willson Contreras1B 3713335 0.263 8230.373 44213 00 0.500 0.272 0.373 0.483 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 3714042 0.300 5170.377 44210 00 0.500 0.285 0.396 0.428 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 155214 0.269 040.387 43000 10 0.000 0.246 0.307 0.267 OK
Trevor StorySS 3614730 0.204 2180.242 43000 12 0.000 0.202 0.238 0.226 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 3311932 0.269 2130.341 44100 00 0.250 0.287 0.361 0.432 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 289121 0.231 180.304 44000 01 0.000 0.253 0.321 0.280 OK
Carlos NarváezC 237516 0.213 230.272 44000 02 0.000 0.154 0.296 0.300 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 3412022 0.183 1130.263 43000 12 0.000 0.209 0.257 0.259 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 33 37 0.182

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jesse ScholtensStarter 521.53.35 1.2097.117 4.12001471 4.1 4 0
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 1614.22.54 0.84510.116 1.13221130 1.1 1 2
Cole SulserMiddle Reliever 1619.52.77 1.3857.416 1.10000110 1.1 1 0
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 64.26.43 2.38112.96 0.21111022 0.2 0 1
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 1515.12.98 1.25811.920 1.10000113 1.1 1 0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Connelly EarlyStarter 734.53.91 1.3628.131 3.13113283 3.1 2 1
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 1211.20.80 0.89311.214 1.13220324 1.1 3 2
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 1414.13.83 1.34810.917 1.00001016 1.0 0 0
Zack KellyMiddle Reliever 1311.83.81 1.3569.212 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
Greg WeissertMiddle Reliever 1612.15.95 1.73613.418 1.02222137 1.0 1 2
Jovani MoránMiddle Reliever 1018.72.89 1.2309.620 1.00000216 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

TB wins 5-3


Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins

WAS 18-20 (5.39 RPG / 5.66 RA)
4 - 2
MIA 17-21 (4.24 RPG / 4.39 RA)
WAS WINS Target: WAS 4 - 2 MIA Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
WAS010000003410
MIA00001010024

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff6
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodDH 3814435 0.243 10270.394 54200 02 0.500 0.286 0.402 0.419 OK
Curtis Mead1B 155715 0.263 3110.354 55200 02 0.400 0.245 0.348 0.436 OK
Brady House3B 2912027 0.225 5170.285 54111 10 0.250 0.237 0.326 0.528 OK
CJ AbramsSS 3613038 0.292 9330.394 54100 10 0.250 0.307 0.362 0.555 OK
Jacob YoungCF 3212228 0.230 2140.271 54111 00 0.250 0.212 0.251 0.237 OK
Daylen LileLF 3714736 0.245 3140.323 54000 11 0.000 0.144 0.277 0.216 OK
Joey WiemerRF 155216 0.308 260.390 54111 12 0.250 0.227 0.279 0.339 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 3210623 0.217 0140.317 54211 11 0.500 0.290 0.353 0.390 OK
Keibert RuizC 206614 0.212 2110.232 44000 00 0.000 0.254 0.265 0.517 OK
TEAM TOTALS 443710 44 58 0.270

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 3713644 0.324 2120.414 43212 10 0.667 0.272 0.368 0.413 OK
Otto LopezSS 3614549 0.338 4160.370 44000 01 0.000 0.358 0.365 0.501 OK
Kyle StowersRF 155813 0.224 010.318 44000 01 0.000 0.225 0.286 0.235 OK
Christopher Morel1B 6204 0.200 000.304 43000 11 0.000 0.216 0.309 0.216 OK
Connor NorbyDH 3310825 0.231 3120.344 43000 10 0.000 0.236 0.387 0.306 OK
Javier SanojaLF 206920 0.290 070.347 43110 10 0.333 0.185 0.275 0.234 OK
Joe MackC 392 0.222 010.222 44000 01 0.000 0.222 0.222 0.222 OK
Leo Jiménez3B 7163 0.188 000.350 44100 00 0.250 0.144 0.343 0.144 OK
Esteury RuizCF 5174 0.235 230.235 33000 00 0.000 0.235 0.235 0.647 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 22 44 0.129

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Foster GriffinStarter 739.22.30 1.0977.633 4.11114183 4.1 1 1
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 1512.13.72 1.57011.916 1.10000114 1.1 1 0
PJ PoulinMiddle Reliever 1815.34.12 1.6348.214 1.13110122 1.1 1 1
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1121.84.13 1.3306.616 0.1000019 0.1 1 0
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 85.81.55 2.41412.48 1.20000011 1.2 0 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sandy AlcantaraStarter 851.24.04 1.2896.336 2.22113485 2.2 4 1
Tyler PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1120.41.32 1.4229.722 1.22000016 1.2 0 0
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 1612.64.29 1.74611.416 1.20000113 1.2 1 0
John KingMiddle Reliever 1712.40.73 0.64510.214 1.01001021 1.0 0 0
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 1610.46.06 1.82713.816 1.01000117 1.0 1 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 1313.43.36 1.04510.716 1.04331237 1.0 2 3

Game Summary

WAS wins 4-2