MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

May 3, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ CHC3 - 63 - 6CHC wins 6-366%enhanced_ml
ATL @ COL5 - 35 - 3ATL wins 5-362%enhanced_ml
BAL @ NYY4 - 74 - 7NYY wins 7-470%enhanced_ml
CHW @ SD5 - 45 - 4CHW wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 11)59%enhanced_ml
CIN @ PIT3 - 53 - 5PIT wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 10)66%enhanced_ml
CLE @ OAK5 - 45 - 4CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)56%enhanced_ml
HOU @ BOS5 - 65 - 6BOS wins 6-555%enhanced_ml
KC @ SEA5 - 25 - 2KC wins 5-263%enhanced_ml
LAD @ STL7 - 47 - 4LAD wins 7-458%enhanced_ml
MIL @ WAS5 - 25 - 2MIL wins 5-260%enhanced_ml
NYM @ LAA5 - 35 - 3NYM wins 5-366%enhanced_ml
PHI @ MIA7 - 47 - 4PHI wins 7-458%enhanced_ml
SF @ TB2 - 62 - 6TB wins 6-276%enhanced_ml
TEX @ DET3 - 63 - 6DET wins 6-358%enhanced_ml
TOR @ MIN5 - 25 - 2TOR wins 5-258%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

ARI 16-17 (4.55 RPG / 5.48 RA)
3 - 6
CHC 22-12 (5.44 RPG / 4.21 RA)
CHC WINS Target: ARI 3 - 6 CHC Confidence: 66.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ARI00100002039
CHC00400002x68

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed6.8
Run Diff-22
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff0
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak5W

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 2912027 0.225 5110.279 3100 21 0.333 0.179 0.232 0.319 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 299824 0.245 290.356 4000 11 0.000 0.243 0.360 0.455 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 3010730 0.280 4180.376 4210 01 0.500 0.245 0.288 0.423 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 239435 0.372 6180.392 5000 01 0.000 0.400 0.436 0.537 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 3010529 0.276 5170.312 4100 00 0.250 0.305 0.383 0.510 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 10408 0.200 040.238 4111 01 0.250 0.268 0.302 0.340 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 11419 0.220 030.283 4100 00 0.250 0.224 0.288 0.290 OK
Jose FernandezDH 238628 0.326 3120.356 4212 01 0.500 0.249 0.360 0.355 OK
Jorge BarrosaCF 186213 0.210 050.258 4100 00 0.250 0.179 0.221 0.339 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 33 36 0.250

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 3112737 0.291 4260.370 5000 01 0.000 0.242 0.332 0.330 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 237020 0.286 5140.346 4212 10 0.500 0.112 0.196 0.258 OK
Alex Bregman3B 3213031 0.238 3110.329 4110 11 0.250 0.176 0.327 0.277 OK
Ian HappLF 3111829 0.246 8150.373 4210 00 0.500 0.277 0.435 0.626 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 186821 0.309 5100.407 3000 11 0.000 0.258 0.336 0.463 OK
Michael Busch1B 3112024 0.200 2120.302 2011 21 0.000 0.211 0.351 0.369 OK
Carson KellyC 207623 0.303 170.391 3113 10 0.333 0.320 0.375 0.376 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 3212129 0.240 3130.308 4100 02 0.250 0.252 0.345 0.491 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 3110422 0.212 6220.336 3110 10 0.333 0.232 0.311 0.353 OK
TEAM TOTALS 328 66 76 0.250

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Merrill KellyStarter 314.29.51 2.3245.79 4.06334399 4.0 3 3
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 1.00001222 1.0 2 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.01111023 1.0 0 1
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 22.10.00 0.4768.62 1.0000006 1.0 0 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 11.09.00 2.0000.00 1.01221126 1.0 1 2

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matthew BoydStarter 416.67.59 1.56614.126 4.05223592 4.0 5 2
Ben BrownMiddle Reliever 1123.51.91 1.0218.823 1.01000014 1.0 0 0
Phil MatonMiddle Reliever 74.615.65 2.82617.69 1.01000117 1.0 1 0
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 1410.85.00 2.13012.515 1.00110014 1.0 0 1
Hoby MilnerMiddle Reliever 1512.92.79 1.0853.55 1.02000021 1.0 0 0
Yacksel RíosMiddle Reliever 11.20.00 0.00015.02 1.00000012 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 6-3


Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies

ATL 25-10 (5.86 RPG / 3.54 RA)
5 - 3
COL 14-21 (4.29 RPG / 4.91 RA)
ATL WINS Target: ATL 5 - 3 COL Confidence: 62.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ATL100020020511
COL00300000035

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff21
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

COL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff3
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Mauricio DubónCF 3211732 0.274 2180.325 4110 11 0.250 0.188 0.288 0.325 OK
Drake BaldwinDH 3413843 0.312 8290.391 3110 21 0.333 0.323 0.423 0.561 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 3413243 0.326 7210.370 5312 00 0.600 0.393 0.438 0.787 OK
Matt Olson1B 3413339 0.293 11300.373 4100 10 0.250 0.309 0.386 0.790 OK
Austin Riley3B 3312526 0.208 4200.291 5211 02 0.400 0.205 0.254 0.398 OK
Eli WhiteLF 13356 0.171 260.189 5112 02 0.200 0.158 0.162 0.340 OK
Jonah HeimC 11357 0.200 030.300 4100 10 0.250 0.204 0.301 0.294 OK
Jorge MateoSS 11339 0.273 010.314 4000 11 0.000 0.258 0.290 0.342 OK
José AzocarRF 000 0.000 000.000 4100 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250
TEAM TOTALS 3811 55 67 0.289

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Edouard Julien2B 238024 0.300 2120.385 4110 01 0.250 0.338 0.434 0.567 OK
Mickey MoniakLF 238829 0.330 9170.375 3000 10 0.000 0.348 0.424 0.701 OK
Hunter GoodmanDH 2911428 0.246 9140.323 4113 00 0.250 0.199 0.272 0.495 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 3111629 0.250 2160.318 3110 10 0.333 0.249 0.281 0.340 OK
Troy JohnstonRF 2710131 0.307 2150.352 4000 01 0.000 0.269 0.312 0.367 OK
Willi Castro3B 238320 0.241 1110.308 4100 00 0.250 0.204 0.260 0.254 OK
Brett SullivanC 134613 0.283 060.298 4100 00 0.250 0.311 0.335 0.449 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 3111723 0.197 180.254 4000 00 0.000 0.146 0.284 0.165 OK
Jake McCarthyCF 205815 0.259 060.317 2000 01 0.000 0.322 0.390 0.435 OK
TEAM TOTALS 325 33 23 0.156

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer StriderStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 4.05332390 4.0 3 3
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 1513.31.35 1.2039.514 3.00000015 3.0 0 0
Aaron BummerMiddle Reliever 148.05.62 1.7509.08 1.00000012 1.0 0 0
Reynaldo LópezMiddle Reliever 623.23.49 1.3368.522 1.00000010 1.0 0 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle FreelandStarter 420.23.56 1.1397.617 4.03003388 4.0 3 0
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 1212.28.11 2.1318.111 1.03221025 1.0 0 2
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 917.10.53 0.81910.019 1.01001020 1.0 0 0
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever 1211.63.10 1.20710.914 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 1313.06.92 2.15411.817 1.03221126 1.0 1 2
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 148.56.35 2.58813.813 1.01110222 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-3


Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

BAL 15-19 (4.53 RPG / 5.41 RA)
4 - 7
NYY 23-11 (5.29 RPG / 3.38 RA)
NYY WINS Target: BAL 4 - 7 NYY Confidence: 70.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BAL00000004045
NYY00050002x78

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed7.5
Run Diff-24
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.2
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff30
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 3312236 0.295 1120.428 5000 00 0.000 0.233 0.467 0.271 OK
Adley RutschmanC 176620 0.303 4160.352 2000 10 0.000 0.254 0.264 0.466 OK
Pete AlonsoDH 3312225 0.205 6150.317 4110 00 0.250 0.239 0.364 0.716 OK
Tyler O'NeillRF 11337 0.212 140.381 3110 11 0.333 0.214 0.442 0.254 OK
Coby Mayo1B 248013 0.162 3110.239 4214 01 0.500 0.089 0.110 0.211 OK
Leody TaverasCF 196318 0.286 2160.400 3000 01 0.000 0.178 0.295 0.344 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 2810327 0.262 6240.280 4110 02 0.250 0.155 0.164 0.309 OK
Weston Wilson3B 5123 0.250 000.400 3000 12 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Blaze AlexanderSS 216711 0.164 010.233 4000 00 0.000 0.119 0.167 0.153 OK
TEAM TOTALS 325 44 37 0.156

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 269315 0.161 3130.307 5212 01 0.400 0.198 0.301 0.445 OK
Ben Rice1B 2810233 0.324 10240.444 4111 11 0.250 0.354 0.454 0.656 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 3311730 0.256 12210.396 3010 10 0.000 0.294 0.492 0.580 OK
Cody BellingerLF 3111431 0.272 5180.370 4211 00 0.500 0.453 0.505 1.047 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 3011324 0.212 3110.299 3000 12 0.000 0.211 0.302 0.358 OK
Jasson DomínguezDH 4132 0.154 000.214 4110 03 0.250 0.154 0.214 0.154 OK
Austin WellsC 247315 0.205 350.337 3110 11 0.333 0.258 0.386 0.517 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 216811 0.162 150.240 3000 11 0.000 0.166 0.186 0.245 OK
José CaballeroSS 3211229 0.259 4120.308 3113 12 0.333 0.219 0.297 0.458 OK
TEAM TOTALS 328 77 611 0.250

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle BradishStarter 733.35.14 1.8629.535 4.055557107 4.0 7 5
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 33.00.00 1.00012.04 1.00000215 1.0 2 0
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 1512.50.72 0.40010.815 1.00000112 1.0 1 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 1414.42.50 1.04211.218 1.00000010 1.0 0 0
Keegan AkinMiddle Reliever 33.021.00 3.0009.03 1.03221127 1.0 1 2

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max FriedStarter 746.42.13 0.8197.237 6.02001688 6.0 6 0
David BednarMiddle Reliever 1312.23.69 1.72110.314 1.01001125 1.0 1 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 157.05.14 2.57124.419 1.02441026 1.0 0 4
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 1713.02.08 1.69211.116 1.00000012 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 7-4


Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres

CHW 16-18 (4.24 RPG / 4.68 RA)
5 - 4
SD 20-13 (4.39 RPG / 4.42 RA)
CHW WINS Target: CHW 5 - 4 SD Confidence: 59.3% enhanced_ml
1234567891011RH
CHW0001000020256
SD10020000001410

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak5W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed6.4
Run Diff-19
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 134511 0.244 170.352 5000 02 0.000 0.344 0.410 0.546 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 3211627 0.233 13260.375 4010 13 0.000 0.210 0.373 0.542 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 228719 0.218 2120.250 5210 02 0.400 0.185 0.214 0.283 OK
Colson Montgomery3B 3111426 0.228 9220.333 5314 02 0.600 0.244 0.342 0.542 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 3011430 0.263 130.346 4111 02 0.250 0.266 0.347 0.363 OK
Jarred KelenicRF 000 0.000 000.000 5000 03 0.000 - - -
Tristan PetersCF 216217 0.274 040.338 5000 02 0.000 0.357 0.455 0.361 OK
Luisangel AcuñaSS 226912 0.174 030.247 4000 00 0.000 0.134 0.284 0.145 OK
Drew RomoC 000 0.000 000.000 2010 12 0.000 - 0.500 -
TEAM TOTALS 396 55 218 0.154

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ramón LaureanoLF 2811328 0.248 4180.310 5100 11 0.200 0.199 0.268 0.252 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 207324 0.329 180.364 6111 02 0.167 0.340 0.365 0.523 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 3011925 0.210 3150.277 6212 02 0.333 0.206 0.270 0.231 OK
Manny Machado3B 3010523 0.219 4170.333 5210 10 0.400 0.276 0.346 0.567 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 3111530 0.261 5170.346 5211 11 0.400 0.215 0.323 0.378 OK
Ty France1B 144813 0.271 380.314 5000 11 0.000 0.217 0.241 0.468 OK
Nick CastellanosRF 15549 0.167 190.224 5000 02 0.000 0.122 0.181 0.290 OK
Freddy FerminC 16519 0.176 030.290 3100 20 0.333 0.169 0.273 0.258 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 289114 0.154 140.280 3100 21 0.333 0.139 0.279 0.158 OK
TEAM TOTALS 4310 44 810 0.233

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Anthony KayStarter 622.96.68 1.8345.915 4.06225396 4.0 3 2
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 1.00112128 1.0 1 1
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.00000212 1.0 2 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 1.01110219 1.0 2 1
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever 20.390.00 20.00030.01 1.02000117 1.0 1 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 129.81.84 1.93913.815 1.00001016 1.0 0 0
Jordan LeasureReliever 88.34.34 1.0849.89 2.01000120 2.0 1 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Griffin CanningStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 4.021111181 4.0 11 1
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 1515.11.19 0.59617.329 1.00000112 1.0 1 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 1413.26.82 1.74211.617 1.00000217 1.0 2 0
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 97.32.47 0.9594.94 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever 1312.32.20 1.4638.812 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Ron MarinaccioMiddle Reliever 1217.55.66 1.6006.713 1.02220021 1.0 0 2
Jeremiah EstradaReliever 87.34.93 1.37013.611 1.00001118 1.0 1 0
Wandy PeraltaReliever 1413.04.15 1.6159.013 1.02220115 1.0 1 2

Game Summary

CHW wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 11)


Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

CIN 20-14 (4.15 RPG / 4.79 RA)
3 - 5
PIT 19-16 (5.14 RPG / 4.26 RA)
PIT WINS Target: CIN 3 - 5 PIT Confidence: 65.7% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
CIN000300000039
PIT001002000258

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed7.0
Run Diff-25
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff11
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
TJ FriedlCF 2811123 0.207 270.290 5200 01 0.400 0.297 0.341 0.525 OK
JJ BledayLF 5134 0.308 230.471 5111 01 0.200 0.301 0.463 0.839 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 3313036 0.277 10250.352 5100 03 0.200 0.298 0.374 0.579 OK
Sal Stewart3B 3312332 0.260 9290.350 5111 02 0.200 0.127 0.178 0.218 OK
Nathaniel LoweDH 165416 0.296 5140.377 4100 12 0.250 0.350 0.412 0.721 OK
Spencer Steer1B 3010224 0.235 5100.319 4000 01 0.000 0.339 0.439 0.528 OK
Will BensonRF 14386 0.158 120.238 4211 00 0.500 0.188 0.264 0.441 OK
Jose TrevinoC 5162 0.125 000.176 4000 00 0.000 0.125 0.176 0.125 OK
Matt McLain2B 3011824 0.203 290.314 3100 10 0.333 0.171 0.221 0.260 OK
TEAM TOTALS 399 33 210 0.231

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 3113535 0.259 9270.320 4212 11 0.500 0.231 0.281 0.430 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 2911228 0.250 8210.359 5211 01 0.400 0.266 0.400 0.558 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 3311932 0.269 4220.413 4112 11 0.250 0.396 0.547 0.815 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 3111737 0.316 5240.397 5110 00 0.200 0.332 0.403 0.478 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 2811138 0.342 0170.392 5210 00 0.400 0.424 0.510 0.445 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 2610720 0.187 3130.250 4000 10 0.000 0.256 0.320 0.475 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 278722 0.253 2120.380 4000 02 0.000 0.238 0.379 0.398 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 269926 0.263 2150.330 4000 03 0.000 0.384 0.451 0.628 OK
Joey BartC 12398 0.205 120.262 3000 01 0.000 0.238 0.265 0.325 OK
TEAM TOTALS 388 55 39 0.211

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chase BurnsStarter 633.32.70 1.14110.539 5.04112692 5.0 6 1
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 1313.15.50 1.3746.910 1.02221128 1.0 1 2
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 1413.22.05 1.13610.215 1.0000008 1.0 0 0
Connor PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1615.12.38 1.58911.319 1.00000110 1.0 1 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 1613.04.15 1.76913.219 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Luis MeyReliever 23.03.00 1.00015.05 1.02220016 1.0 0 2

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braxton AshcraftStarter 633.33.78 1.17110.539 5.063315100 5.0 5 3
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 1514.23.17 1.1976.310 1.01000117 1.0 1 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 1615.21.78 0.78912.421 1.01001225 1.0 2 0
Isaac MattsonMiddle Reliever 1714.84.26 1.6227.312 1.00000012 1.0 0 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 1411.73.85 1.53816.922 2.01000226 2.0 2 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 10)


Cleveland Guardians @ Oakland Athletics

CLE 18-17 (4.17 RPG / 4.26 RA)
5 - 4
OAK 18-16 (4.38 RPG / 4.68 RA)
CLE WINS Target: CLE 5 - 4 OAK Confidence: 56.3% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
CLE1000000301510
OAK000110020049

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanLF 3112128 0.231 190.329 5210 00 0.400 0.259 0.401 0.335 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 2810631 0.292 5200.382 5211 00 0.400 0.532 0.608 0.715 OK
José RamírezDH 3412627 0.214 6140.336 5211 02 0.400 0.170 0.266 0.281 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 248513 0.153 160.240 5100 02 0.200 0.061 0.149 0.070 OK
Daniel Schneemann3B 227524 0.320 4120.386 4213 10 0.500 0.251 0.289 0.401 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 4131 0.077 020.333 5000 03 0.000 0.077 0.333 0.077 OK
Petey HalpinCF 000 0.000 000.000 4000 02 0.000 - - -
Austin HedgesC 124013 0.325 130.364 4000 01 0.000 0.332 0.375 0.562 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 3310830 0.278 3190.355 3110 10 0.333 0.281 0.325 0.348 OK
TEAM TOTALS 4010 55 210 0.250

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jacob WilsonSS 3213540 0.296 2150.309 4111 01 0.250 0.370 0.405 0.480 OK
Brent RookerDH 166210 0.161 3110.239 5213 02 0.400 0.226 0.279 0.417 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 3211528 0.243 5160.416 5110 03 0.200 0.258 0.395 0.407 OK
Colby ThomasRF 4123 0.250 010.357 5100 00 0.200 0.247 0.360 0.247 OK
Zack GelofCF 10348 0.235 160.257 4100 00 0.250 0.268 0.289 0.318 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 3111824 0.203 3180.291 4100 01 0.250 0.140 0.226 0.282 OK
Austin WynnsC 9313 0.097 000.152 4000 01 0.000 0.076 0.126 0.076 OK
Darell Hernaiz3B 13408 0.200 140.319 4100 01 0.250 0.192 0.326 0.229 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 269230 0.326 190.390 3110 11 0.333 0.413 0.452 0.544 OK
TEAM TOTALS 389 44 110 0.237

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 635.41.78 0.9049.738 6.04221591 6.0 5 2
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 1515.13.58 1.32510.718 1.00000011 1.0 0 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 75.28.65 1.92312.17 1.03220119 1.0 1 2
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever 1711.43.16 1.14018.924 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Peyton PalletteReliever 912.23.69 1.3119.613 1.01000218 1.0 2 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron CivaleStarter 629.53.36 1.3567.324 5.05110476 5.0 4 1
Jack PerkinsMiddle Reliever 812.42.90 1.12912.317 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 1914.03.86 2.21412.219 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 119.12.97 1.4294.95 1.04330024 1.0 0 3
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 1510.97.43 2.11011.614 1.00001118 1.0 1 0
Justin SternerMiddle Reliever 1514.85.47 1.75711.619 1.01111226 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)


Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox

HOU 14-21 (5.09 RPG / 5.74 RA)
5 - 6
BOS 13-21 (3.82 RPG / 4.38 RA)
BOS WINS Target: HOU 5 - 6 BOS Confidence: 54.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
HOU200000201511
BOS03100000266

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff-13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CorreaSS 3011534 0.296 3160.379 4000 11 0.000 0.358 0.432 0.573 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 3412742 0.331 12270.438 5212 01 0.400 0.244 0.335 0.440 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 2810428 0.269 3150.361 5112 01 0.200 0.360 0.449 0.472 OK
Christian Walker1B 3312238 0.311 8260.384 4211 10 0.500 0.377 0.431 0.620 OK
Jose Altuve2B 3112130 0.248 380.341 5210 00 0.400 0.198 0.254 0.281 OK
Brice MatthewsCF 185814 0.241 3100.290 4100 01 0.250 0.363 0.410 0.672 OK
Cam SmithRF 3111023 0.209 3130.307 4000 01 0.000 0.164 0.267 0.329 OK
Christian VázquezC 124315 0.349 2110.417 4310 01 0.750 0.272 0.363 0.385 OK
Dustin HarrisLF 9287 0.250 040.312 3000 12 0.000 0.331 0.360 0.403 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3811 55 38 0.289

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 2610619 0.179 2140.243 4000 11 0.000 0.165 0.231 0.328 OK
Willson Contreras1B 3211430 0.263 7210.372 3010 20 0.000 0.280 0.349 0.511 OK
Roman AnthonyDH 2710223 0.225 040.358 5112 01 0.200 0.316 0.438 0.377 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 3212137 0.306 4140.378 3211 10 0.667 0.346 0.463 0.455 OK
Andruw MonasterioSS 9358 0.229 160.308 4211 00 0.500 0.197 0.242 0.374 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 247617 0.224 170.294 4000 00 0.000 0.252 0.294 0.295 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 289926 0.263 180.330 3000 12 0.000 0.252 0.278 0.390 OK
Carlos NarváezC 206615 0.227 230.261 4111 01 0.250 0.204 0.248 0.482 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 3010418 0.173 1100.265 1011 20 0.000 0.191 0.279 0.249 OK
TEAM TOTALS 316 66 75 0.194

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cody BoltonStarter 49.15.93 1.75810.911 5.044442100 5.0 2 4
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 1211.66.21 1.5528.511 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 1211.83.81 1.5259.913 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Steven OkertMiddle Reliever 1610.56.00 1.6197.79 1.01000115 1.0 1 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 118.413.93 3.09517.116 0.21222024 0.2 0 2

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ranger SuarezStarter 634.33.15 0.9627.629 5.04222491 5.0 4 2
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 109.20.98 0.97810.811 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 1212.03.00 1.2509.813 1.03220129 1.0 1 2
Greg WeissertMiddle Reliever 1410.06.30 1.80015.317 1.02001129 1.0 1 0
Danny CoulombeMiddle Reliever 124.510.00 2.66710.05 1.01110119 1.0 1 1

Game Summary

BOS wins 6-5


Kansas City Royals @ Seattle Mariners

KC 15-19 (4.12 RPG / 4.62 RA)
5 - 2
SEA 16-19 (4.09 RPG / 4.03 RA)
KC WINS Target: KC 5 - 2 SEA Confidence: 62.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
KC001100120513
SEA01000000124

KC Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.0
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff14
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 3012033 0.275 3130.336 5211 02 0.400 0.304 0.336 0.590 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 3313037 0.285 2150.362 4100 10 0.250 0.262 0.344 0.442 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 3011120 0.180 4160.280 5000 00 0.000 0.257 0.371 0.557 OK
Salvador PerezDH 3212827 0.211 5130.244 5212 01 0.400 0.298 0.323 0.496 OK
Carter JensenC 279523 0.242 6160.324 3000 21 0.000 0.124 0.202 0.190 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 269123 0.253 240.333 5210 00 0.400 0.271 0.345 0.496 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 248418 0.214 290.327 5210 00 0.400 0.213 0.296 0.295 OK
Michael Massey2B 185512 0.218 170.237 4100 00 0.250 0.181 0.201 0.249 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 257922 0.278 380.337 4312 00 0.750 0.268 0.326 0.384 OK
TEAM TOTALS 4013 55 34 0.325

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Rob RefsnyderDH 9274 0.148 110.233 3000 11 0.000 0.216 0.266 0.330 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 3413436 0.269 4160.338 4100 00 0.250 0.345 0.363 0.681 OK
Josh Naylor1B 3112126 0.215 4160.284 4100 03 0.250 0.281 0.324 0.444 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 3412134 0.281 3120.373 4000 00 0.000 0.297 0.397 0.589 OK
J.P. CrawfordSS 258818 0.205 270.364 3000 11 0.000 0.233 0.382 0.352 OK
Cole Young2B 3412032 0.267 3190.336 4111 02 0.250 0.282 0.299 0.377 OK
Connor JoeRF 4123 0.250 110.308 4111 02 0.250 0.286 0.333 0.762 OK
Jhonny PeredaC 000 0.000 000.000 3000 00 0.000 - - -
Leo Rivas3B 247511 0.147 050.278 2000 10 0.000 0.140 0.287 0.154 OK
TEAM TOTALS 314 22 39 0.129

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kris BubicStarter 633.23.80 1.2059.535 5.02112687 5.0 6 1
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 1513.44.03 1.4938.713 1.00000110 1.0 1 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 1312.23.69 1.31110.314 1.0000009 1.0 0 0
Nick MearsMiddle Reliever 1310.52.57 1.2387.79 1.00001122 1.0 1 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 1211.42.37 0.70211.815 1.02110123 1.0 1 1

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis CastilloStarter 627.46.57 1.7888.526 4.06222283 4.0 2 2
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 1412.35.85 1.46315.421 1.0000008 1.0 0 0
Jose A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 1613.82.61 1.7397.812 1.02000116 1.0 1 0
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 1612.21.48 1.2308.111 1.01111123 1.0 1 1
Gabe SpeierMiddle Reliever 1510.03.60 1.90010.812 1.03220016 1.0 0 2
Cooper CriswellMiddle Reliever 1215.12.38 0.9278.314 1.01000016 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

KC wins 5-2


Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

LAD 21-13 (5.15 RPG / 3.29 RA)
7 - 4
STL 20-14 (4.88 RPG / 4.88 RA)
LAD WINS Target: LAD 7 - 4 STL Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAD000400030711
STL01002001047

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

STL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff11
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 3111930 0.252 6130.381 5000 01 0.000 0.229 0.353 0.409 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 3112433 0.266 3150.331 5110 01 0.200 0.242 0.299 0.272 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 2910426 0.250 4170.325 5110 04 0.200 0.268 0.410 0.306 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 3112129 0.240 3150.329 3000 20 0.000 0.232 0.324 0.322 OK
Max Muncy3B 3010632 0.302 9130.393 3110 11 0.333 0.294 0.392 0.487 OK
Dalton RushingC 134516 0.356 7160.420 5311 00 0.600 0.258 0.335 0.449 OK
Andy PagesCF 3211838 0.322 5260.369 4211 02 0.500 0.258 0.326 0.314 OK
Hyeseong KimSS 195516 0.291 170.365 4212 00 0.500 0.171 0.239 0.189 OK
Alex Freeland2B 257719 0.247 160.306 4113 02 0.250 0.321 0.347 0.394 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3811 77 311 0.289

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 3212430 0.242 7160.360 4111 01 0.250 0.245 0.329 0.538 OK
Iván HerreraDH 3311730 0.256 4140.421 4100 01 0.250 0.341 0.489 0.527 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 3112239 0.320 10270.382 4111 02 0.250 0.406 0.437 0.700 OK
Alec Burleson1B 3112435 0.282 5270.362 4000 02 0.000 0.355 0.456 0.735 OK
Masyn WinnSS 2710628 0.264 1130.336 4111 00 0.250 0.300 0.373 0.362 OK
José FermínLF 7225 0.227 120.250 4000 01 0.000 0.223 0.257 0.382 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 248921 0.236 4130.266 4100 00 0.250 0.221 0.230 0.383 OK
Pedro PagésC 206918 0.261 380.307 3100 10 0.333 0.343 0.377 0.609 OK
Ramón Urías3B 17549 0.167 250.258 3111 01 0.333 0.083 0.257 0.117 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 44 18 0.206

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Justin WrobleskiStarter 530.01.50 0.9674.515 5.05331494 5.0 4 3
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 1512.42.18 0.8069.413 1.0000006 1.0 0 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 1410.51.71 0.95212.915 1.01000220 1.0 2 0
Blake TreinenMiddle Reliever 107.51.20 1.33310.89 1.01110217 1.0 2 1
Will KleinMiddle Reliever 912.32.93 1.46311.015 1.00000014 1.0 0 0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dustin MayStarter 630.25.36 1.5566.622 5.064427103 5.0 7 4
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 1615.42.34 1.03911.119 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 1612.55.04 1.6009.413 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 1611.29.64 2.76815.319 1.03331234 1.0 2 3
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 1512.84.22 1.2508.412 1.02000021 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 7-4


Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals

MIL 18-15 (5.21 RPG / 3.85 RA)
5 - 2
WAS 16-19 (5.14 RPG / 5.63 RA)
MIL WINS Target: MIL 5 - 2 WAS Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIL20000021057
WAS001000001210

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff21
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luis Rengifo3B 228317 0.205 0100.272 3000 20 0.000 0.258 0.325 0.345 OK
William ContrerasC 2911937 0.311 3230.383 4112 01 0.250 0.456 0.512 0.617 OK
Gary SánchezDH 196213 0.210 4110.380 5110 01 0.200 0.154 0.330 0.252 OK
Jake Bauers1B 2610025 0.250 5180.330 5000 00 0.000 0.166 0.321 0.241 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 248321 0.253 1200.386 4000 00 0.000 0.231 0.351 0.316 OK
Brandon LockridgeLF 217220 0.278 090.366 4210 01 0.500 0.292 0.389 0.304 OK
Sal FrelickRF 269519 0.200 370.290 3111 11 0.333 0.236 0.278 0.446 OK
David Hamilton2B 257720 0.260 070.367 2000 21 0.000 0.331 0.387 0.403 OK
Joey OrtizSS 216813 0.191 070.276 4212 00 0.500 0.177 0.302 0.177 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 55 55 0.206

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 3413031 0.238 10240.393 4100 11 0.250 0.250 0.356 0.368 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 269422 0.234 1160.263 5210 01 0.400 0.222 0.228 0.325 OK
Jacob YoungCF 2810625 0.236 2140.277 4212 12 0.500 0.223 0.264 0.251 OK
CJ AbramsSS 3211333 0.292 8270.406 4100 11 0.250 0.331 0.439 0.555 OK
Daylen LileLF 3313534 0.252 3140.318 5200 02 0.400 0.153 0.223 0.251 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 289520 0.211 0100.318 3100 01 0.333 0.272 0.386 0.274 OK
Jose FernandezDH 000 0.000 000.000 4100 01 0.250 0.249 0.360 0.355
Jorbit Vivas3B 206017 0.283 030.371 4000 00 0.000 0.224 0.257 0.248 OK
Keibert RuizC 175510 0.182 170.207 4000 01 0.000 0.155 0.177 0.240 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3710 22 310 0.270

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan HendersonStarter 12.09.00 2.00013.53 4.03222480 4.0 4 2
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 1410.74.21 1.21511.814 1.03000121 1.0 1 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 1618.22.97 1.64816.834 1.01000223 1.0 2 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 1212.03.00 1.0839.813 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Grant AndersonMiddle Reliever 1713.34.06 1.27810.215 1.01000122 1.0 1 0
DL HallMiddle Reliever 1312.02.25 1.66712.817 1.02001022 1.0 0 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
PJ PoulinMiddle Reliever 1612.35.12 1.7077.310 1.01111023 1.0 0 1
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 1310.83.33 1.57411.714 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1121.84.13 1.3306.616 1.00000011 1.0 0 0
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 65.41.67 2.03710.06 1.00000010 1.0 0 0
Andre GranilloMiddle Reliever 75.79.47 2.9824.73 1.00110115 1.0 1 1
Orlando RibaltaReliever 33.00.00 0.3336.02 1.01000115 1.0 1 0
Paxton SchultzReliever 810.33.50 1.2629.611 3.05334179 3.0 1 3

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-2


New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels

NYM 12-22 (3.47 RPG / 4.38 RA)
5 - 3
LAA 13-22 (4.51 RPG / 4.94 RA)
NYM WINS Target: NYM 5 - 3 LAA Confidence: 66.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYM02002100057
LAA00000102038

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed5.9
Run Diff-19
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Bo BichetteSS 3313532 0.237 2150.276 5000 00 0.000 0.266 0.311 0.377 OK
Juan SotoDH 176421 0.328 380.434 5000 00 0.000 0.370 0.479 0.648 OK
MJ MelendezLF 102910 0.345 260.406 3000 10 0.000 0.353 0.397 0.696 OK
Brett Baty3B 258619 0.221 1110.269 4110 00 0.250 0.121 0.351 0.174 OK
Marcus Semien2B 3311826 0.220 1110.273 3111 11 0.333 0.218 0.254 0.250 OK
Carson BengeRF 269117 0.187 260.245 2110 11 0.500 0.192 0.209 0.235 OK
Mark Vientos1B 227517 0.227 280.280 4212 01 0.500 0.245 0.309 0.398 OK
Tyrone TaylorCF 144010 0.250 140.286 4212 01 0.500 0.238 0.287 0.342 OK
Luis TorrensC 8244 0.167 010.167 4000 01 0.000 0.152 0.152 0.205 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 55 35 0.206

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 3413630 0.221 5150.333 3000 12 0.000 0.144 0.227 0.202 OK
Mike TroutCF 3311730 0.256 10210.431 4110 00 0.250 0.339 0.474 0.557 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 3012029 0.242 3190.301 4212 00 0.500 0.297 0.326 0.428 OK
Jorge SolerRF 3010926 0.239 7250.338 4100 02 0.250 0.260 0.353 0.536 OK
Jo AdellDH 3413837 0.268 4200.306 4000 00 0.000 0.300 0.314 0.337 OK
Josh LoweLF 248114 0.173 4100.227 4100 01 0.250 0.150 0.161 0.276 OK
Vaughn Grissom2B 103914 0.359 160.409 4000 00 0.000 0.390 0.418 0.639 OK
Oswald Peraza3B 238124 0.296 490.360 4211 01 0.500 0.368 0.427 0.493 OK
Sebastián RiveroC 142 0.500 000.500 4100 01 0.250 0.500 0.500 0.500 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 33 17 0.229

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Clay HolmesStarter 635.31.78 0.9926.425 6.04110680 6.0 6 1
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 119.35.81 1.82816.517 1.0000008 1.0 0 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 1311.66.21 1.2077.810 1.03221133 1.0 1 2
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 139.81.84 1.02012.914 1.01000014 1.0 0 0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack KochanowiczStarter 633.63.21 1.2506.424 5.04331284 5.0 2 3
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 1214.93.62 1.34210.918 1.01111124 1.0 1 1
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 168.34.34 2.53010.810 1.00110011 1.0 0 1
José FerminMiddle Reliever 33.22.81 0.31211.24 1.01001126 1.0 1 0
Brent SuterMiddle Reliever 1218.54.38 1.4059.219 1.01000111 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 5-3


Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

PHI 14-20 (3.85 RPG / 5.12 RA)
7 - 4
MIA 16-18 (4.29 RPG / 4.32 RA)
PHI WINS Target: PHI 7 - 4 MIA Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PHI03000004076
MIA00003001049

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 3213132 0.244 4110.308 4011 12 0.000 0.265 0.296 0.429 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 3311925 0.210 11200.361 4011 11 0.000 0.240 0.379 0.625 OK
Bryce Harper1B 3312131 0.256 6190.350 3211 21 0.667 0.233 0.353 0.378 OK
Alec Bohm3B 3011118 0.162 1140.232 5110 01 0.200 0.220 0.278 0.264 OK
Brandon MarshRF 269930 0.303 4170.324 5000 02 0.000 0.305 0.340 0.425 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 175714 0.246 140.328 2000 21 0.000 0.209 0.233 0.237 OK
Bryson Stott2B 248818 0.205 170.263 3111 11 0.333 0.175 0.245 0.414 OK
Felix ReyesLF 7243 0.125 110.125 3112 00 0.333 0.078 0.078 0.132 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 279225 0.272 060.343 3111 01 0.333 0.304 0.357 0.430 OK
TEAM TOTALS 326 77 710 0.188

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Otto LopezSS 3212843 0.336 3150.372 5100 02 0.200 0.380 0.387 0.494 OK
Agustín RamírezC 2910826 0.241 2140.331 5211 02 0.400 0.287 0.440 0.337 OK
Kyle StowersRF 11449 0.205 010.314 5211 01 0.400 0.151 0.263 0.176 OK
Connor Norby1B 299623 0.240 3110.345 3111 11 0.333 0.242 0.363 0.346 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 3312241 0.336 2110.426 3000 10 0.000 0.313 0.429 0.494 OK
Christopher MorelDH 261 0.167 000.375 4000 00 0.000 0.167 0.375 0.167 OK
Leo Jiménez3B 5113 0.273 000.385 3000 12 0.000 0.246 0.393 0.246 OK
Esteury RuizCF 3103 0.300 110.300 4200 00 0.500 0.308 0.308 0.716 OK
Javier SanojaLF 175918 0.305 070.359 4111 00 0.250 0.171 0.293 0.181 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 44 38 0.250

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jesús LuzardoStarter 632.75.78 1.34611.341 5.062225102 5.0 5 2
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 1412.55.04 1.12010.815 1.01001118 1.0 1 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 158.18.89 2.96314.413 1.00110013 1.0 0 1
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 1210.52.57 1.4297.79 1.02110120 1.0 1 1
Tim MayzaMiddle Reliever 1517.33.64 1.0989.418 1.00000111 1.0 1 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris PaddackStarter 626.66.43 1.5798.826 4.03224590 4.0 5 2
Tyler PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1017.41.55 1.4379.819 1.00000215 1.0 2 0
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 139.65.62 2.08312.213 1.00110113 1.0 1 1
John KingMiddle Reliever 1511.10.81 0.63110.513 1.00000111 1.0 1 0
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 1510.26.18 1.86314.116 1.03442136 1.0 1 4
Andrew NardiMiddle Reliever 1310.65.94 1.69811.914 1.00001015 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 7-4


San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays

SF 13-21 (3.12 RPG / 4.12 RA)
2 - 6
TB 21-12 (4.45 RPG / 4.24 RA)
TB WINS Target: SF 2 - 6 TB Confidence: 75.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SF00100010024
TB10400100x611

SF Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs2.5
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-18
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak6L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed1.3
Run Diff24
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Heliot RamosLF 3011531 0.270 3140.303 4000 01 0.000 0.269 0.289 0.375 OK
Rafael Devers1B 3312827 0.211 2120.250 4100 01 0.250 0.201 0.235 0.280 OK
Casey SchmittDH 2710030 0.300 4140.349 4000 01 0.000 0.298 0.328 0.429 OK
Luis Arraez2B 3212640 0.317 0110.343 4000 03 0.000 0.336 0.347 0.450 OK
Matt Chapman3B 3312632 0.254 1120.333 3000 11 0.000 0.146 0.270 0.206 OK
Willy AdamesSS 3212925 0.194 360.235 4100 01 0.250 0.115 0.152 0.144 OK
Jung Hoo LeeCF 3211734 0.291 2100.339 2200 20 1.000 0.225 0.260 0.295 OK
Jerar EncarnacionRF 9265 0.192 000.192 4011 00 0.000 0.105 0.105 0.121 OK
Eric HaaseC 262 0.333 010.333 2011 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.500 OK
TEAM TOTALS 314 22 48 0.129

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 3012137 0.306 060.338 5100 00 0.200 0.267 0.305 0.309 OK
Junior Caminero3B 3112232 0.262 9160.336 5210 00 0.400 0.254 0.299 0.488 OK
Jonathan ArandaDH 3011226 0.232 7270.331 5111 01 0.200 0.248 0.292 0.433 OK
Ryan Vilade1B 8259 0.360 040.407 4100 00 0.250 0.401 0.441 0.437 OK
Jake FraleyRF 195915 0.254 250.333 3111 10 0.333 0.280 0.357 0.489 OK
Ben Williamson2B 206915 0.217 090.289 2100 21 0.500 0.175 0.216 0.288 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 269713 0.134 290.198 3111 11 0.333 0.100 0.179 0.160 OK
Nick FortesC 196818 0.265 170.286 4112 00 0.250 0.209 0.222 0.271 OK
Taylor WallsSS 216413 0.203 040.311 4211 00 0.500 0.193 0.372 0.279 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3511 66 43 0.314

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler MahleStarter 630.25.96 1.6568.629 3.08552165 3.0 1 5
Ryan WalkerMiddle Reliever 1310.85.00 1.75910.813 1.00000010 1.0 0 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 129.73.71 1.44315.817 1.01002028 1.0 0 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 1312.22.95 0.9029.613 1.01110014 1.0 0 1
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 1311.90.76 1.00812.116 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Matt GageMiddle Reliever 1510.31.75 1.4567.08 1.01000018 1.0 0 0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Steven MatzStarter 631.14.34 1.1257.827 5.02113286 5.0 2 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 1312.12.98 0.99210.414 1.00000215 1.0 2 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 1212.03.75 1.33312.817 1.02110117 1.0 1 1
Cole SulserMiddle Reliever 1316.53.27 1.6367.614 1.00000112 1.0 1 0
Hunter BiggeMiddle Reliever 86.65.45 1.5156.85 1.00001217 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

TB wins 6-2


Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers

TEX 16-17 (3.82 RPG / 3.67 RA)
3 - 6
DET 17-17 (4.44 RPG / 4.09 RA)
DET WINS Target: TEX 3 - 6 DET Confidence: 58.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TEX10000200037
DET10010004x69

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.9
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-9
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoDH 3212638 0.302 4120.378 5100 01 0.200 0.440 0.522 0.486 OK
Andrew McCutchenLF 8214 0.190 130.261 3110 11 0.333 0.081 0.157 0.183 OK
Corey SeagerSS 3211825 0.212 6170.317 4312 00 0.750 0.198 0.312 0.343 OK
Josh Jung3B 2910936 0.330 4190.388 4000 01 0.000 0.394 0.461 0.553 OK
Jake Burger1B 3212828 0.219 5170.252 4100 01 0.250 0.194 0.233 0.357 OK
Evan CarterCF 288917 0.191 390.305 3000 11 0.000 0.069 0.154 0.120 OK
Ezequiel DuranRF 195916 0.271 160.348 4111 00 0.250 0.281 0.395 0.356 OK
Josh Smith2B 258217 0.207 060.312 3000 11 0.000 0.280 0.384 0.299 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 12449 0.205 130.286 4000 02 0.000 0.184 0.245 0.263 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 33 38 0.206

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigleSS 3212539 0.312 2140.407 4310 00 0.750 0.224 0.328 0.292 OK
Matt VierlingCF 175913 0.220 080.277 4111 02 0.250 0.209 0.271 0.298 OK
Colt Keith3B 238324 0.289 040.322 4000 01 0.000 0.289 0.336 0.306 OK
Riley GreeneLF 3312036 0.300 4190.400 4111 01 0.250 0.326 0.414 0.488 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 3110524 0.229 5120.352 4211 01 0.500 0.220 0.336 0.370 OK
Kerry CarpenterDH 247917 0.215 5140.308 4113 01 0.250 0.186 0.239 0.455 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 14486 0.125 020.192 4000 00 0.000 0.286 0.357 0.332 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 8255 0.200 020.286 2110 11 0.500 0.204 0.324 0.278 OK
Jake RogersC 10304 0.133 040.176 3000 01 0.000 0.158 0.197 0.223 OK
TEAM TOTALS 339 66 18 0.273

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack LeiterStarter 630.45.33 1.5139.833 5.04221780 5.0 7 2
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1415.11.79 0.7283.66 1.00000014 1.0 0 0
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 1416.51.09 0.4858.215 1.01000017 1.0 0 0
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 1511.86.10 1.52512.216 1.04440127 1.0 1 4

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 1310.96.61 2.2947.49 1.02110324 1.0 3 1
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 96.44.22 1.56212.79 1.00000012 1.0 0 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 1514.50.62 1.3107.412 1.00001114 1.0 1 0
Burch SmithMiddle Reliever 47.12.54 1.40813.911 1.00000011 1.0 0 0
Brant HurterMiddle Reliever 1312.12.23 0.9097.410 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Drew AndersonReliever 1117.75.59 1.41211.222 1.04221034 1.0 0 2
Brenan HanifeeReliever 22.00.00 1.0004.51 3.01001243 3.0 2 0

Game Summary

DET wins 6-3


Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins

TOR 16-18 (4.21 RPG / 4.62 RA)
5 - 2
MIN 15-20 (4.71 RPG / 4.86 RA)
TOR WINS Target: TOR 5 - 2 MIN Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TOR02010020057
MIN00000002024

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff-16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yohendrick PinangoLF 495 0.556 030.600 4110 12 0.250 0.556 0.600 0.556 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 3211928 0.235 8200.316 4112 01 0.250 0.303 0.377 0.766 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.DH 3312140 0.331 2150.421 4000 02 0.000 0.275 0.389 0.333 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 248721 0.241 4140.281 3000 00 0.000 0.173 0.189 0.343 OK
Lenyn Sosa1B 10359 0.257 140.250 4211 01 0.500 0.315 0.315 0.520 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 2810624 0.226 480.299 3000 11 0.000 0.198 0.266 0.356 OK
Ernie Clement2B 3213139 0.298 190.319 4110 00 0.250 0.237 0.300 0.365 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 2910828 0.259 3160.283 4112 00 0.250 0.171 0.176 0.253 OK
Tyler HeinemanC 15459 0.200 020.250 4100 01 0.250 0.131 0.175 0.131 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 55 28 0.206

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonDH 3113134 0.260 10140.315 4000 01 0.000 0.345 0.383 0.823 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 216820 0.294 190.429 4110 01 0.250 0.357 0.460 0.532 OK
Austin MartinCF 206421 0.328 160.476 4000 02 0.000 0.375 0.470 0.442 OK
Victor CaratiniC 237916 0.203 1110.302 4000 02 0.000 0.068 0.178 0.099 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 3212427 0.218 1140.277 3000 10 0.000 0.187 0.292 0.259 OK
Kody Clemens1B 197015 0.214 380.312 3100 00 0.333 0.243 0.330 0.388 OK
Royce Lewis3B 217013 0.186 3100.288 3100 00 0.333 0.142 0.191 0.202 OK
Matt WallnerRF 279816 0.163 370.268 3000 01 0.000 0.053 0.198 0.076 OK
Brooks LeeSS 2910526 0.248 5160.307 3112 02 0.333 0.288 0.333 0.385 OK
TEAM TOTALS 314 22 19 0.129

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trey YesavageStarter 15.10.00 0.7845.33 6.02001893 6.0 8 0
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 1614.90.60 1.20816.928 1.00000112 1.0 1 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 1615.40.58 0.7795.810 1.02110014 1.0 0 1
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 1512.57.20 2.08020.228 1.00110011 1.0 0 1

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joe RyanStarter 738.13.78 1.0509.239 5.05332496 5.0 4 3
Justin TopaMiddle Reliever 1912.34.39 1.7078.812 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 1312.75.67 1.5759.213 1.02220118 1.0 1 2
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 139.04.00 1.8897.07 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Kody FunderburkMiddle Reliever 159.52.84 1.8957.68 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

TOR wins 5-2