MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

April 30, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (9 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ MIL5 - 45 - 4ARI wins 5-452%enhanced_ml
COL @ CIN6 - 56 - 5COL wins 6-553%enhanced_ml
DET @ ATL4 - 54 - 5ATL wins 5-457%enhanced_ml
HOU @ BAL5 - 65 - 6BAL wins 6-557%enhanced_ml
KC @ OAK3 - 53 - 5OAK wins 5-356%enhanced_ml
SF @ PHI2 - 32 - 3PHI wins 3-256%enhanced_ml
STL @ PIT4 - 14 - 1STL wins 4-162%enhanced_ml
TOR @ MIN5 - 45 - 4TOR wins 5-457%enhanced_ml
WAS @ NYM3 - 63 - 6NYM wins 6-354%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers

ARI 16-14 (4.7 RPG / 5.5 RA)
5 - 4
MIL 16-14 (5.33 RPG / 4.07 RA)
ARI WINS Target: ARI 5 - 4 MIL Confidence: 51.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ARI110120000511
MIL01002010049

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed7.5
Run Diff-23
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff17
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Geraldo PerdomoSS 268621 0.244 160.362 5100 01 0.200 0.295 0.408 0.459 OK
Ketel Marte2B 2711327 0.239 5110.289 5210 00 0.400 0.258 0.310 0.391 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 279527 0.284 4180.389 4311 10 0.750 0.265 0.380 0.523 OK
Adrian Del CastilloDH 155412 0.222 2110.263 5000 01 0.000 0.198 0.248 0.385 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 228632 0.372 6200.393 4112 00 0.250 0.367 0.386 0.716 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 8325 0.156 030.206 4211 01 0.500 0.156 0.206 0.188 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 279527 0.284 5170.324 3211 10 0.667 0.346 0.400 0.578 OK
Alek ThomasCF 238216 0.195 2100.233 4000 01 0.000 0.225 0.255 0.436 OK
James McCannC 11328 0.250 040.273 4000 02 0.000 0.259 0.259 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3811 55 26 0.289

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Garrett MitchellCF 257417 0.230 1200.374 5211 01 0.400 0.194 0.348 0.317 OK
Brice Turang2B 2710028 0.280 4190.407 5111 01 0.200 0.279 0.408 0.478 OK
William ContrerasC 2710728 0.262 2160.336 5000 01 0.000 0.229 0.289 0.306 OK
Jake Bauers1B 279625 0.260 5180.317 3311 20 1.000 0.283 0.330 0.447 OK
Tyler BlackDH 4145 0.357 030.357 5000 01 0.000 0.357 0.357 0.429 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 258015 0.188 060.258 4100 11 0.250 0.211 0.290 0.292 OK
Sal FrelickRF 268518 0.212 260.309 5100 01 0.200 0.240 0.345 0.345 OK
Greg JonesLF 7172 0.118 010.118 4111 01 0.250 0.118 0.118 0.118 OK
David HamiltonSS 247117 0.239 070.349 0000 40 0.000 0.253 0.335 0.294 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 44 77 0.250

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael SorokaStarter 527.22.65 1.17611.234 5.05334492 5.0 4 3
Eduardo RodriguezReliever 000.00 0.0000.00 1.01001125 1.0 1 0
Juan MorilloReliever 000.00 0.0000.00 1.02111123 1.0 1 1
Merrill KellyReliever 000.00 0.0000.00 1.00001116 1.0 1 0
Ryne NelsonReliever 000.00 0.0000.00 1.01000020 1.0 0 0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon WoodruffStarter 528.23.83 1.0287.323 5.09551195 5.0 1 5
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 139.74.64 1.23712.113 1.01000118 1.0 1 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 1516.02.81 1.62516.930 1.01000122 1.0 1 0
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 1010.03.60 1.30010.812 1.00001220 1.0 2 0
Grant AndersonMiddle Reliever 1512.94.19 1.2409.113 1.00000112 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-4

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

COL 14-18 (4.28 RPG / 4.5 RA)
6 - 5
CIN 20-11 (4.29 RPG / 4.39 RA)
COL WINS Target: COL 6 - 5 CIN Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
COL500000010611
CIN02120000056

COL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.2
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff8
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jordan BeckLF 21599 0.153 180.203 5110 01 0.200 0.174 0.215 0.279 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 278218 0.220 130.289 4212 11 0.500 0.232 0.298 0.310 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 2810428 0.269 9140.345 5100 03 0.200 0.288 0.358 0.674 OK
Tyler FreemanDH 165214 0.269 070.345 5211 02 0.400 0.262 0.325 0.286 OK
Willi Castro2B 227319 0.260 1100.333 5100 01 0.200 0.284 0.357 0.385 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 3111029 0.264 3160.333 4212 01 0.500 0.274 0.343 0.451 OK
Kyle Karros3B 318817 0.193 140.324 2210 10 1.000 0.198 0.324 0.298 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 3011322 0.195 180.235 4000 01 0.000 0.153 0.188 0.212 OK
Troy JohnstonRF 269229 0.315 2160.364 3011 01 0.000 0.340 0.401 0.469 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3711 66 211 0.297

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
TJ FriedlCF 2710319 0.184 150.270 4000 02 0.000 0.205 0.256 0.320 OK
Matt McLain2B 2811024 0.218 290.333 5111 02 0.200 0.244 0.343 0.401 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 3012034 0.283 10240.358 5000 02 0.000 0.294 0.363 0.593 OK
Sal Stewart3B 3011132 0.288 9290.377 2111 10 0.500 0.280 0.359 0.537 OK
Nathaniel LoweDH 174913 0.265 4110.345 4000 00 0.000 0.275 0.363 0.627 OK
Tyler StephensonC 236912 0.174 260.293 4212 00 0.500 0.173 0.285 0.271 OK
JJ BledayLF 252 0.400 110.500 3000 10 0.000 0.400 0.500 1.000 OK
Spencer Steer1B 289421 0.223 580.302 3110 11 0.333 0.250 0.337 0.481 OK
Will BensonRF 18387 0.184 130.262 3111 00 0.333 0.186 0.345 0.363 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 55 37 0.182

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael LorenzenStarter 727.56.22 1.9276.219 4.05442480 4.0 4 4
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 1111.27.23 2.0548.010 1.00110014 1.0 0 1
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 815.90.57 0.75510.218 1.0000009 1.0 0 0
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever 1211.63.10 1.20710.914 1.00000215 1.0 2 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 1212.06.00 2.00012.016 1.01001025 1.0 0 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 138.34.34 2.41013.012 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew AbbottStarter 627.56.87 1.8556.219 2.07551463 2.0 4 5
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 1212.14.46 1.2407.410 1.01000114 1.0 1 0
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 1312.22.21 1.14810.314 1.00000011 1.0 0 0
Connor PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1514.12.55 1.63110.216 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 1512.00.75 1.33312.817 1.01000221 1.0 2 0
Pierce JohnsonMiddle Reliever 149.24.89 1.63012.713 1.00001119 1.0 1 0
Chase BurnsReliever 000.00 0.0000.00 1.01110019 1.0 0 1
Brandon WilliamsonReliever 000.00 0.0000.00 1.01000218 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

COL wins 6-5

Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves

DET 16-16 (4.44 RPG / 4.16 RA)
4 - 5
ATL 22-10 (5.53 RPG / 3.47 RA)
ATL WINS Target: DET 4 - 5 ATL Confidence: 57.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
DET00010021047
ATL00011002159

DET Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff9
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigleSS 3011438 0.333 2130.420 4100 11 0.250 0.352 0.421 0.539 OK
Gleyber Torres2B 2910625 0.236 290.379 3111 10 0.333 0.233 0.387 0.313 OK
Colt KeithDH 288828 0.318 060.348 5211 01 0.400 0.319 0.347 0.369 OK
Riley GreeneLF 3111032 0.291 4180.391 3000 10 0.000 0.326 0.420 0.554 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 309621 0.219 5120.348 4211 00 0.500 0.240 0.356 0.590 OK
Kerry CarpenterRF 288118 0.222 6170.316 3000 10 0.000 0.225 0.305 0.523 OK
Matt VierlingCF 195711 0.193 190.262 3000 11 0.000 0.188 0.277 0.329 OK
Hao-Yu Lee3B 8215 0.238 130.273 3011 00 0.000 0.238 0.273 0.476 OK
Jake RogersC 9274 0.148 040.194 4100 01 0.250 0.148 0.179 0.222 OK
TEAM TOTALS 327 44 54 0.219

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 3111628 0.241 290.357 4210 00 0.500 0.236 0.357 0.371 OK
Drake BaldwinC 3112739 0.307 7250.380 3110 10 0.333 0.297 0.385 0.487 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 3112038 0.317 7200.364 4213 00 0.500 0.348 0.394 0.604 OK
Matt Olson1B 3112137 0.306 9280.381 4000 00 0.000 0.313 0.378 0.662 OK
Austin Riley3B 3111723 0.197 3170.282 4000 02 0.000 0.150 0.229 0.249 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 2910629 0.274 2140.319 4000 02 0.000 0.244 0.285 0.377 OK
Kyle FarmerDH 593 0.333 030.300 4211 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.444 OK
Jorge MateoSS 12288 0.286 130.333 4000 02 0.000 0.288 0.333 0.398 OK
Eli WhiteCF 16387 0.184 260.200 4211 00 0.500 0.189 0.200 0.392 OK
TEAM TOTALS 359 55 17 0.257

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Framber ValdezStarter 634.13.43 1.3206.324 5.04220483 5.0 4 2
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 96.44.22 1.56212.79 1.01000017 1.0 0 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 1413.50.67 1.3337.311 1.00000110 1.0 1 0
Will VestMiddle Reliever 139.87.35 1.73511.913 1.02221123 1.0 1 2
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 1310.96.61 2.2947.49 0.22110114 0.2 1 1

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryce ElderStarter 635.62.02 1.0117.831 4.04002483 4.0 4 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 1312.20.74 0.9029.613 1.00000012 1.0 0 0
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 1412.31.46 1.0579.513 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Aaron BummerMiddle Reliever 137.85.77 1.6678.17 1.02222030 1.0 0 2
Joel PayampsMiddle Reliever 106.47.03 1.40611.28 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
José SuarezMiddle Reliever 714.46.25 2.08311.919 1.00111016 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-4

Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles

HOU 12-20 (5.25 RPG / 6.06 RA)
5 - 6
BAL 15-16 (4.68 RPG / 5.06 RA)
BAL WINS Target: HOU 5 - 6 BAL Confidence: 57.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
HOU10003001056
BAL000020013612

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed6.3
Run Diff-17
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CorreaSS 2710128 0.277 2140.368 3000 01 0.000 0.277 0.379 0.421 OK
Yordan AlvarezLF 3011039 0.355 11260.463 4315 00 0.750 0.371 0.447 0.739 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 259020 0.222 3140.320 3010 10 0.000 0.231 0.305 0.415 OK
Christian Walker1B 3010732 0.299 7230.377 4000 01 0.000 0.303 0.369 0.594 OK
Jose Altuve2B 2810927 0.248 380.344 4000 02 0.000 0.223 0.302 0.358 OK
Yainer DiazDH 218319 0.229 2120.250 4000 02 0.000 0.243 0.255 0.410 OK
Brice MatthewsCF 19489 0.188 270.250 4110 01 0.250 0.208 0.278 0.429 OK
Dustin HarrisRF 6161 0.062 010.211 3010 10 0.000 0.120 0.241 0.240 OK
Christian VázquezC 144514 0.311 2100.380 4210 01 0.500 0.343 0.410 0.543 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 55 28 0.182

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gunnar HendersonDH 2912226 0.213 9180.287 5212 02 0.400 0.214 0.285 0.486 OK
Taylor WardLF 2911235 0.312 1110.426 5211 01 0.400 0.321 0.452 0.473 OK
Adley RutschmanC 155519 0.345 3130.400 4111 02 0.250 0.354 0.398 0.634 OK
Pete Alonso1B 2911122 0.198 4120.299 4100 01 0.250 0.197 0.273 0.363 OK
Dylan BeaversRF 227217 0.236 280.300 4000 02 0.000 0.231 0.293 0.361 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 269225 0.272 5190.292 4000 02 0.000 0.241 0.270 0.385 OK
Colton CowserCF 235511 0.200 030.274 4210 02 0.500 0.187 0.241 0.227 OK
Coby Mayo3B 217213 0.181 3110.262 3212 10 0.667 0.196 0.267 0.436 OK
Blaze AlexanderSS 195810 0.172 010.238 4210 00 0.500 0.153 0.223 0.166 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3712 66 112 0.324

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Peter LambertStarter 211.03.27 1.27313.116 5.04221792 5.0 7 2
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 109.46.70 1.5967.78 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 109.84.59 1.63311.913 1.02000117 1.0 1 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 107.414.59 2.97315.813 1.02110221 1.0 2 1
Kai-Wei TengMiddle Reliever 1217.13.16 1.1709.518 0.14330123 0.1 1 3

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris BassittStarter 520.47.06 2.1574.410 5.05441085 5.0 0 4
Ryan HelsleyMiddle Reliever 1210.22.65 1.37313.215 1.00000318 1.0 3 0
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 33.00.00 1.00012.04 1.00000212 1.0 2 0
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 1412.40.73 0.40310.915 1.01110220 1.0 2 1
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 1313.42.69 0.89612.118 1.00001119 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

BAL wins 6-5

Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics

KC 12-19 (4.06 RPG / 4.77 RA)
3 - 5
OAK 17-14 (4.23 RPG / 4.39 RA)
OAK WINS Target: KC 3 - 5 OAK Confidence: 56.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
KC00000201035
OAK00120002x510

KC Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed5.9
Run Diff-3
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 2810828 0.259 2100.331 3100 11 0.333 0.240 0.313 0.349 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 3011835 0.297 2150.366 4211 00 0.500 0.321 0.385 0.522 OK
Lane ThomasCF 215714 0.246 150.377 3000 10 0.000 0.277 0.416 0.362 OK
Salvador Perez1B 2911623 0.198 5110.230 3011 03 0.000 0.217 0.235 0.372 OK
Nick Loftin2B 9298 0.276 070.364 3000 10 0.000 0.276 0.382 0.379 OK
Starling MarteRF 10297 0.241 010.258 4000 02 0.000 0.251 0.262 0.359 OK
Carter JensenDH 278623 0.267 6160.354 4000 00 0.000 0.298 0.402 0.525 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 237516 0.213 280.337 3111 02 0.333 0.213 0.336 0.305 OK
Elias DíazC 373 0.429 020.500 3100 01 0.333 0.429 0.500 0.714 OK
TEAM TOTALS 305 33 39 0.167

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jacob WilsonSS 2912335 0.285 2150.294 4000 00 0.000 0.310 0.322 0.439 OK
Shea LangeliersDH 2912138 0.314 8140.371 4000 02 0.000 0.310 0.362 0.528 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 2910324 0.233 5130.415 4100 01 0.250 0.245 0.425 0.493 OK
Colby ThomasRF 272 0.286 010.375 4310 00 0.750 0.286 0.375 0.286 OK
Darell Hernaiz3B 14357 0.200 120.300 4112 01 0.250 0.192 0.307 0.291 OK
Carlos CortesLF 246526 0.400 4130.473 4212 00 0.500 0.452 0.507 0.803 OK
Austin WynnsC 9283 0.107 000.167 4000 01 0.000 0.107 0.167 0.107 OK
Zack Gelof2B 11317 0.226 140.250 3111 00 0.333 0.238 0.263 0.374 OK
Lawrence ButlerCF 289117 0.187 3120.260 3210 00 0.667 0.177 0.259 0.301 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3410 55 05 0.294

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Noah CameronStarter 525.45.31 1.5758.123 6.07330498 6.0 4 3
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 1311.44.74 1.7547.910 1.01000115 1.0 1 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 1110.24.41 1.47110.612 1.02220019 1.0 0 2

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jeffrey SpringsStarter 635.23.84 1.0237.931 6.022237108 6.0 7 2
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 107.93.42 1.5194.64 1.00000010 1.0 0 0
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 1712.83.52 2.03112.017 1.03110126 1.0 1 1
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 1510.97.43 2.11011.614 1.00000115 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

OAK wins 5-3

San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies

SF 13-17 (3.3 RPG / 4.13 RA)
2 - 3
PHI 11-19 (3.73 RPG / 5.27 RA)
PHI WINS Target: SF 2 - 3 PHI Confidence: 55.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SF000110000211
PHI00010001137

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-6
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Heliot RamosLF 2810127 0.267 3140.308 5000 02 0.000 0.294 0.339 0.527 OK
Matt Chapman3B 2911030 0.273 1120.344 5200 01 0.400 0.275 0.359 0.340 OK
Luis Arraez2B 2810834 0.315 080.345 5200 01 0.400 0.316 0.340 0.374 OK
Casey SchmittDH 238424 0.286 4130.337 4212 01 0.500 0.274 0.319 0.540 OK
Rafael Devers1B 2911424 0.211 2100.250 4100 02 0.250 0.206 0.238 0.289 OK
Willy AdamesSS 2811423 0.202 360.242 3210 10 0.667 0.167 0.190 0.276 OK
Jung Hoo LeeCF 2910331 0.301 2100.345 4000 01 0.000 0.338 0.377 0.505 OK
Jerar EncarnacionRF 12276 0.222 000.222 4200 00 0.500 0.212 0.244 0.240 OK
Patrick BaileyC 237010 0.143 150.211 4000 03 0.000 0.141 0.214 0.207 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3811 22 111 0.289

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 2911830 0.254 3100.323 4000 00 0.000 0.250 0.330 0.360 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 2910520 0.190 9170.346 4111 01 0.250 0.177 0.329 0.492 OK
Bryce Harper1B 2910829 0.269 6190.350 3100 10 0.333 0.256 0.334 0.474 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 2910324 0.233 390.310 4000 01 0.000 0.240 0.309 0.400 OK
Brandon MarshLF 269428 0.298 4170.320 4111 01 0.250 0.293 0.314 0.464 OK
Bryson Stott2B 238017 0.212 040.267 4000 00 0.000 0.222 0.272 0.287 OK
Edmundo Sosa3B 143810 0.263 170.282 4100 02 0.250 0.281 0.313 0.458 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 258220 0.244 040.319 3100 11 0.333 0.207 0.280 0.270 OK
Rafael MarchánC 13444 0.091 120.149 3211 10 0.667 0.103 0.133 0.103 OK
TEAM TOTALS 337 33 36 0.212

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan WebbStarter 637.04.86 1.3787.832 5.021134101 5.0 4 1
Ryan WalkerMiddle Reliever 1210.63.40 1.50910.212 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 118.74.14 1.60916.616 1.0000009 1.0 0 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 1210.22.65 0.58811.513 1.03110125 1.0 1 1
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 129.90.91 1.11112.714 0.22110117 0.2 1 1

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cristopher SánchezStarter 633.22.98 1.62711.743 5.09221799 5.0 7 2
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 1210.54.29 1.1438.610 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 137.89.23 2.43612.711 1.00000011 1.0 0 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 109.32.90 1.3987.78 1.00000011 1.0 0 0
Tim MayzaMiddle Reliever 1415.34.12 1.0469.416 1.02000220 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 3-2

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

STL 18-13 (5.0 RPG / 5.1 RA)
4 - 1
PIT 16-16 (4.78 RPG / 4.41 RA)
STL WINS Target: STL 4 - 1 PIT Confidence: 62.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
STL002001001411
PIT10000000014

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak4W

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak5L

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 3011328 0.248 6150.370 5100 01 0.200 0.256 0.343 0.505 OK
Iván HerreraDH 3010526 0.248 4140.420 4100 11 0.250 0.274 0.418 0.486 OK
Alec Burleson1B 2911430 0.263 4220.346 5211 01 0.400 0.244 0.314 0.444 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 2911131 0.279 8200.352 4212 10 0.500 0.252 0.332 0.414 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 299821 0.214 4180.286 5000 03 0.000 0.209 0.284 0.351 OK
Masyn WinnSS 249424 0.255 1130.330 4200 00 0.500 0.290 0.354 0.422 OK
Nathan ChurchLF 248019 0.238 5120.279 4100 02 0.250 0.248 0.286 0.494 OK
Pedro PagésC 186015 0.250 380.303 3011 02 0.000 0.268 0.315 0.460 OK
Victor Scott IICF 267614 0.184 150.241 3210 10 0.667 0.149 0.210 0.225 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3711 44 310 0.297

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 2912131 0.256 9260.318 4100 11 0.250 0.216 0.274 0.490 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 2610225 0.245 7190.336 5000 02 0.000 0.242 0.311 0.455 OK
Bryan ReynoldsRF 3111026 0.236 3170.380 3100 10 0.333 0.222 0.367 0.304 OK
Ryan O'HearnDH 2810433 0.317 5200.397 3100 10 0.333 0.320 0.397 0.505 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 2710233 0.324 0150.355 3111 10 0.333 0.374 0.402 0.424 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 288121 0.259 390.367 3000 12 0.000 0.256 0.361 0.412 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 248720 0.230 2130.292 4000 01 0.000 0.238 0.291 0.374 OK
Jake MangumLF 226718 0.269 030.319 3000 10 0.000 0.265 0.307 0.298 OK
Henry DavisC 196210 0.161 030.246 3000 10 0.000 0.134 0.221 0.166 OK
TEAM TOTALS 314 11 76 0.129

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Hunter DobbinsStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 4.03113496 4.0 4 1
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 1514.41.25 0.83310.617 2.00000112 2.0 1 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 1411.34.78 1.5937.29 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 149.211.74 3.04316.617 1.00003030 1.0 0 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 1411.74.62 1.2828.511 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Paul SkenesStarter 628.32.54 0.7429.530 4.05222699 4.0 6 2
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 1514.23.17 1.1976.310 1.00001015 1.0 0 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 1514.21.90 0.84512.720 1.02110018 1.0 0 1
Isaac MattsonMiddle Reliever 1614.61.23 1.3017.412 1.01000019 1.0 0 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 1310.74.21 1.58918.522 1.00000212 1.0 2 0
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever 1316.82.14 1.31011.221 1.03110219 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

STL wins 4-1

Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins

TOR 14-16 (4.03 RPG / 4.63 RA)
5 - 4
MIN 13-18 (4.74 RPG / 4.77 RA)
TOR WINS Target: TOR 5 - 4 MIN Confidence: 56.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TOR30000001159
MIN01010020047

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 155611 0.196 270.297 5110 01 0.200 0.200 0.308 0.343 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 298723 0.264 4150.309 4210 00 0.500 0.266 0.313 0.480 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 3010939 0.358 2150.444 3111 11 0.333 0.392 0.462 0.531 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 2910724 0.224 5150.303 4113 02 0.250 0.240 0.325 0.453 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 279422 0.234 370.314 4100 00 0.250 0.207 0.276 0.310 OK
Ernie Clement2B 3012337 0.301 190.317 4100 00 0.250 0.304 0.327 0.468 OK
Yohendrick PinangoLF 352 0.400 010.400 4000 02 0.000 0.400 0.400 0.400 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 2810128 0.277 3160.302 4211 00 0.500 0.266 0.281 0.412 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 13377 0.189 230.231 4000 02 0.000 0.207 0.258 0.414 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 55 18 0.250

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 2811928 0.235 7100.292 5000 00 0.000 0.235 0.282 0.482 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 226518 0.277 180.405 3000 21 0.000 0.280 0.414 0.409 OK
Ryan JeffersC 217522 0.293 3180.404 2110 30 0.500 0.296 0.424 0.467 OK
Josh BellDH 3010724 0.224 3160.317 4000 12 0.000 0.205 0.290 0.283 OK
Austin MartinRF 226119 0.311 160.462 5000 01 0.000 0.309 0.467 0.416 OK
Kody Clemens1B 216814 0.206 380.299 4213 00 0.500 0.226 0.298 0.401 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 3011726 0.222 1130.276 4210 02 0.500 0.231 0.277 0.286 OK
Brooks LeeSS 279524 0.253 5170.317 4211 01 0.500 0.267 0.339 0.448 OK
Royce Lewis3B 196313 0.206 3100.315 3000 11 0.000 0.210 0.299 0.347 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 44 78 0.206

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kevin GausmanStarter 634.32.62 0.96210.038 4.03116293 4.0 2 1
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 1411.57.04 2.00021.127 1.00110012 1.0 0 1
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 1514.40.62 0.8335.08 1.02000120 1.0 1 0
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 1513.90.65 1.15116.826 1.02220325 1.0 3 2
Braydon FisherMiddle Reliever 1514.21.90 1.26810.116 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever 147.44.86 1.62218.215 1.00001121 1.0 1 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bailey OberStarter 631.34.03 1.1827.827 4.03331366 4.0 3 3
Cole SandsMiddle Reliever 129.85.51 1.63310.111 1.02000121 1.0 1 0
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 128.04.50 2.0007.97 1.00000110 1.0 1 0
Justin TopaMiddle Reliever 1711.14.05 1.7128.911 1.00000011 1.0 0 0
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 1210.65.94 1.69810.212 1.03110127 1.0 1 1
Anthony BandaMiddle Reliever 149.310.65 1.82812.613 1.01110214 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

TOR wins 5-4

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets

WAS 15-17 (5.47 RPG / 5.78 RA)
3 - 6
NYM 10-21 (3.42 RPG / 4.55 RA)
NYM WINS Target: WAS 3 - 6 NYM Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
WAS00300000035
NYM000300003610

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff3
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 3111929 0.244 10240.404 3000 01 0.000 0.231 0.421 0.539 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 299523 0.242 1160.270 4100 00 0.250 0.254 0.271 0.342 OK
Daylen LileLF 3012433 0.266 3140.331 4111 00 0.250 0.254 0.341 0.416 OK
CJ AbramsSS 3010530 0.286 7230.394 4000 01 0.000 0.242 0.341 0.432 OK
Jose FernandezDH 000 0.000 000.000 4000 03 0.000 0.336 0.371 0.470
Jorbit Vivas3B 235917 0.288 030.377 4000 00 0.000 0.268 0.351 0.328 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 279018 0.200 0100.314 2000 22 0.000 0.208 0.325 0.214 OK
Drew MillasC 17508 0.160 020.222 4210 01 0.500 0.173 0.215 0.227 OK
Jacob YoungCF 279723 0.237 2140.282 3112 00 0.333 0.226 0.276 0.305 OK
TEAM TOTALS 325 33 28 0.156

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Bo Bichette3B 3012329 0.236 2140.273 5110 03 0.200 0.244 0.281 0.349 OK
Juan SotoDH 155518 0.327 380.422 4000 11 0.000 0.314 0.413 0.563 OK
MJ MelendezLF 10278 0.296 130.367 4000 12 0.000 0.296 0.367 0.519 OK
Mark Vientos1B 237217 0.236 270.291 4310 10 0.750 0.232 0.300 0.337 OK
Brett BatyRF 268819 0.216 1120.245 5113 01 0.200 0.232 0.308 0.350 OK
Marcus Semien2B 3010624 0.226 190.284 4110 01 0.250 0.239 0.297 0.307 OK
Carson BengeCF 268616 0.186 260.247 4310 00 0.750 0.207 0.255 0.318 OK
Luis TorrensC 11286 0.214 040.214 2113 10 0.500 0.167 0.167 0.250 OK
Ronny MauricioSS 7225 0.227 010.227 4000 01 0.000 0.227 0.227 0.227 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3610 66 49 0.278

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Miles MikolasStarter 622.48.84 1.9206.416 4.04332371 4.0 3 3
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 129.73.71 1.64912.113 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Cionel PérezMiddle Reliever 1413.34.74 1.5046.19 1.02000124 1.0 1 0
PJ PoulinMiddle Reliever 1612.35.12 1.7077.310 1.02000115 1.0 1 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 1019.84.09 1.1626.414 1.00001018 1.0 0 0
Richard LoveladyMiddle Reliever 55.21.73 1.92310.46 0.22331226 0.2 2 3

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Freddy PeraltaStarter 630.74.10 1.27010.636 4.03221367 4.0 3 2
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 97.37.40 2.19218.515 1.01110114 1.0 1 1
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 119.65.62 1.2506.67 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 117.82.31 1.28212.711 1.00001118 1.0 1 0
Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever 129.61.88 1.45810.311 1.01000121 1.0 1 0
Craig KimbrelMiddle Reliever 64.46.14 1.59114.37 1.00000115 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 6-3