MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

April 29, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ MIL5 - 68 - 5ARI wins 8-555%enhanced_ml
BOS @ TOR6 - 45 - 4BOS wins 5-451%enhanced_ml
CHC @ SD5 - 65 - 6SD wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10)51%enhanced_ml
COL @ CIN4 - 64 - 6CIN wins 6-465%enhanced_ml
DET @ ATL3 - 63 - 6ATL wins 6-368%enhanced_ml
HOU @ BAL4 - 54 - 5BAL wins 5-454%enhanced_ml
KC @ OAK6 - 46 - 1KC wins 6-166%enhanced_ml
LAA @ CHW4 - 63 - 7CHW wins 7-371%enhanced_ml
MIA @ LAD3 - 42 - 3LAD wins 3-257%enhanced_ml
NYY @ TEX4 - 37 - 3NYY wins 7-362%enhanced_ml
SEA @ MIN3 - 42 - 5MIN wins 5-258%enhanced_ml
SF @ PHI3 - 54 - 5PHI wins 5-451%enhanced_ml
STL @ PIT5 - 44 - 2STL wins 4-257%enhanced_ml
TB @ CLE3 - 21 - 0TB wins 1-057%enhanced_ml
WAS @ NYM3 - 42 - 4NYM wins 4-257%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers

ARI 15-13 (4.79 RPG / 5.36 RA)
8 - 5
MIL 15-13 (5.18 RPG / 4.11 RA)
ARI WINS Target: ARI 5 - 6 MIL Confidence: 54.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ARI30100301088
MIL40000000159

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed6.8
Run Diff-9
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff14
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Geraldo PerdomoSS 258421 0.250 160.350 5000 01 0.000 0.291 0.376 0.452 OK
Ketel Marte2B 2610825 0.231 4100.284 4111 11 0.250 0.244 0.299 0.337 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 269025 0.278 3170.389 4110 00 0.250 0.264 0.389 0.502 OK
Adrian Del CastilloC 144911 0.224 1100.269 5112 01 0.200 0.182 0.250 0.333 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 218130 0.370 6200.393 5311 00 0.600 0.366 0.386 0.737 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 7283 0.107 030.167 3111 10 0.333 0.107 0.167 0.143 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 269226 0.283 4140.316 4113 00 0.250 0.346 0.390 0.520 OK
Jose FernandezDH 227926 0.329 3120.354 3010 10 0.000 0.335 0.370 0.471 OK
Alek ThomasCF 227816 0.205 2100.244 2010 10 0.000 0.234 0.265 0.453 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 88 43 0.229

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon LockridgeLF 237118 0.254 080.338 4211 11 0.500 0.249 0.339 0.299 OK
Brice Turang2B 269626 0.271 4180.403 5210 02 0.400 0.251 0.393 0.421 OK
William ContrerasC 2610328 0.272 2160.348 4000 02 0.000 0.243 0.304 0.333 OK
Jake Bauers1B 269224 0.261 5170.320 4113 02 0.250 0.280 0.329 0.434 OK
Gary SánchezDH 195914 0.237 5140.384 4111 01 0.250 0.229 0.367 0.498 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 247613 0.171 060.247 4110 00 0.250 0.201 0.283 0.277 OK
Greg JonesRF 6152 0.133 010.133 4100 00 0.250 0.133 0.133 0.133 OK
Blake PerkinsCF 16395 0.128 050.244 3000 11 0.000 0.131 0.243 0.198 OK
Joey OrtizSS 216513 0.200 060.278 4100 00 0.250 0.197 0.293 0.197 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 55 29 0.250

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eduardo RodriguezStarter 528.02.89 1.3215.818 3.05441258 8.0 6 3
Andrew Hoffmann 000.00 0.0000.00 1.00000010 - - -
Juan Morillo 000.00 0.0000.00 1.00000318 - - -
Merrill Kelly 000.00 0.0000.00 1.01000118 - - -
Ryne Nelson 000.00 0.0000.00 1.01000112 - - -
Kevin Ginkel 000.00 0.0000.00 1.0000019 - - -
Jonathan Loáisiga 000.00 0.0000.00 1.02111127 - - -

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon SproatStarter 520.76.96 1.6918.720 3.04331149 4.0 2 1
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 139.74.64 1.23712.113 1.00000011 0.2 2 1
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 1516.02.81 1.62516.930 1.00000114 1.1 3 1
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 1010.03.60 1.30010.812 1.02333040 1.0 3 1
Angel ZerpaMiddle Reliever 1210.87.50 2.0376.78 1.01110017 0.2 1 1
Grant AndersonMiddle Reliever 1411.93.03 1.1768.311 1.01110117 1.1 2 1
Chad Patrick 000.00 0.0000.00 1.00000014 - - -

Game Summary

ARI wins 8-5

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

BOS 12-19 (3.97 RPG / 4.48 RA)
5 - 4
TOR 14-16 (4.03 RPG / 4.63 RA)
BOS WINS Target: BOS 6 - 4 TOR Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BOS01200200058
TOR11200000049

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyLF 259119 0.209 150.345 3000 20 0.000 0.208 0.356 0.272 OK
Willson Contreras1B 2910326 0.252 6190.371 5110 03 0.200 0.234 0.327 0.458 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 2911133 0.297 4130.361 5110 01 0.200 0.286 0.365 0.449 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 279125 0.275 1100.347 4100 02 0.250 0.270 0.328 0.416 OK
Trevor StorySS 2911923 0.193 2170.228 3212 11 0.667 0.190 0.242 0.256 OK
Andruw MonasterioDH 144110 0.244 180.311 3111 10 0.333 0.255 0.327 0.431 OK
Connor WongC 12339 0.273 050.368 4000 02 0.000 0.241 0.333 0.379 OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B 12337 0.212 030.257 4212 00 0.500 0.223 0.261 0.223 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 289516 0.168 1110.262 4000 01 0.000 0.192 0.280 0.318 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 55 410 0.229

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ernie Clement2B 2911836 0.305 070.322 5210 01 0.400 0.316 0.339 0.449 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 288322 0.265 4150.312 5100 02 0.200 0.267 0.315 0.486 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 2910636 0.340 2150.426 5000 02 0.000 0.355 0.420 0.494 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 2810323 0.223 5130.304 3111 10 0.333 0.252 0.336 0.468 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 269222 0.239 370.307 4100 02 0.250 0.218 0.269 0.322 OK
Yohendrick PinangoDH 231 0.333 000.333 4200 01 0.500 0.245 0.307 0.398 OK
Myles StrawLF 204413 0.295 130.354 2000 20 0.000 0.282 0.347 0.408 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 279728 0.289 3160.314 4112 02 0.250 0.299 0.314 0.461 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 12345 0.147 120.171 4111 02 0.250 0.148 0.179 0.259 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 44 312 0.250

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brayan BelloStarter 520.69.61 2.4276.615 3.07332377 5.1 3 1
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 98.21.10 0.97611.010 1.00000112 1.0 3 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 1010.02.70 1.20011.713 1.00000112 1.0 3 0
Greg WeissertMiddle Reliever 139.84.59 1.63314.716 1.00000114 0.1 1 1
Danny CoulombeMiddle Reliever 114.310.47 2.55810.55 1.01111124 0.0 0 0
Zack KellyMiddle Reliever 108.74.14 1.0348.38 1.00000216 1.1 2 1
Connelly Early 000.00 0.0000.00 1.01000319 - - -

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eric LauerStarter 522.26.89 1.5777.719 4.04222480 5.0 5 1
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 1411.57.04 2.00021.127 1.01110220 1.0 3 1
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 1514.40.62 0.8335.08 1.02222135 0.2 2 0
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 1513.90.65 1.15116.826 1.00000112 1.0 0 0
Braydon FisherMiddle Reliever 1413.02.08 1.30810.415 1.00000115 0.2 0 1
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever 147.44.86 1.62218.215 1.01000116 0.2 2 1

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-4

Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres

CHC 19-12 (5.45 RPG / 4.32 RA)
5 - 6
SD 19-11 (4.63 RPG / 4.37 RA)
SD WINS Target: CHC 5 - 6 SD Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
CHC0011000111512
SD0020011002611

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico HoernerSS 3012336 0.293 4260.369 3110 31 0.333 0.269 0.340 0.403 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 256624 0.364 5150.411 5313 00 0.600 0.358 0.424 0.689 OK
Alex Bregman3B 3012131 0.256 3110.341 4111 12 0.250 0.280 0.368 0.423 OK
Ian HappLF 2810925 0.229 7140.349 5100 12 0.200 0.235 0.355 0.405 OK
Michael Busch1B 2911022 0.200 2110.299 6111 00 0.167 0.218 0.304 0.350 OK
Michael ConfortoRF 15268 0.308 040.438 4000 11 0.000 0.331 0.465 0.461 OK
Matt Shaw2B 266919 0.275 290.320 4100 23 0.250 0.316 0.378 0.492 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 3011227 0.241 2100.309 5310 10 0.600 0.262 0.339 0.392 OK
Miguel AmayaC 144711 0.234 250.308 5100 12 0.200 0.220 0.316 0.350 OK
TEAM TOTALS 4112 55 1011 0.293

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson MerrillCF 2811223 0.205 3150.270 5212 00 0.400 0.164 0.229 0.245 OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 2810927 0.248 0110.328 5000 11 0.000 0.246 0.320 0.268 OK
Manny MachadoDH 279522 0.232 4160.342 3211 20 0.667 0.256 0.329 0.435 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 2810530 0.286 5170.364 4211 10 0.500 0.301 0.394 0.469 OK
Ty France1B 134113 0.317 380.364 4011 00 0.000 0.323 0.361 0.646 OK
Miguel Andujar3B 196420 0.312 060.353 4310 10 0.750 0.313 0.345 0.434 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 278713 0.149 140.275 5000 02 0.000 0.151 0.280 0.202 OK
Nick CastellanosLF 18538 0.151 070.196 4111 01 0.250 0.127 0.175 0.173 OK
Luis CampusanoC 154415 0.341 3100.383 5100 00 0.200 0.400 0.455 0.867 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3911 66 54 0.282

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jameson TaillonStarter 527.24.63 1.3248.325 4.05223282 5.2 5 2
Ben BrownMiddle Reliever 920.32.22 1.1829.321 1.02000017 0.0 0 0
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 138.86.14 2.50012.312 1.01112131 0.0 0 0
Hoby MilnerMiddle Reliever 1412.82.81 1.0942.84 1.02110019 0.0 0 0
Corbin MartinMiddle Reliever 44.00.00 0.5004.52 1.00000011 1.1 2 1
Ryan RolisonMiddle Reliever 36.00.00 0.5004.53 1.00000010 1.0 0 1
Javier Assad 000.00 0.0000.00 1.01220116 - - -

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matt WaldronStarter 28.213.17 2.4397.77 4.03225491 4.0 2 1
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 1414.11.28 0.56717.928 1.00000114 1.1 0 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 1313.06.23 1.61511.817 1.02001130 1.1 2 1
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 86.31.43 0.7944.33 1.01001225 1.1 2 1
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever 1110.22.65 1.56910.612 1.02111228 1.0 3 1
David MorganMiddle Reliever 1111.07.36 2.54512.315 1.03111131 0.0 0 0
Walker Buehler 000.00 0.0000.00 1.01111024 - - -

Game Summary

SD wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10)

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

COL 14-17 (4.29 RPG / 4.45 RA)
4 - 6
CIN 19-11 (4.23 RPG / 4.4 RA)
CIN WINS Target: COL 4 - 6 CIN Confidence: 64.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
COL00000000448
CIN00020004x64

COL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.1
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff19
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jordan BeckLF 20539 0.170 170.224 4000 00 0.000 0.195 0.242 0.313 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 267716 0.208 120.274 4110 10 0.250 0.203 0.261 0.263 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 3010427 0.260 3160.333 4110 02 0.250 0.267 0.340 0.437 OK
Hunter GoodmanDH 2710025 0.250 7110.324 3110 11 0.333 0.248 0.313 0.546 OK
Willi Castro2B 216917 0.246 190.316 4100 02 0.250 0.261 0.326 0.343 OK
Brett SullivanC 134110 0.244 040.244 4100 02 0.250 0.214 0.214 0.357 OK
Kyle Karros3B 308416 0.190 130.330 4000 00 0.000 0.192 0.335 0.299 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 2910921 0.193 160.228 4100 00 0.250 0.152 0.173 0.213 OK
Mickey MoniakRF 238426 0.310 8150.344 4211 00 0.500 0.332 0.370 0.666 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 41 27 0.229

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
TJ FriedlCF 269818 0.184 150.273 4010 02 0.000 0.202 0.255 0.324 OK
Matt McLain2B 2710521 0.200 290.323 4010 00 0.000 0.204 0.311 0.368 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 2911734 0.291 10240.362 3010 01 0.000 0.308 0.373 0.621 OK
Sal Stewart1B 2910731 0.290 9290.381 3000 02 0.000 0.281 0.362 0.544 OK
Nathaniel LoweDH 164713 0.277 4110.346 3000 01 0.000 0.287 0.359 0.648 OK
Spencer SteerRF 279220 0.217 580.291 2110 10 0.500 0.230 0.308 0.461 OK
JJ BledayLF 111 1.000 111.000 3212 00 0.667 0.245 0.307 0.398 LARGE
Jose TrevinoC 4131 0.077 000.143 3000 00 0.000 0.077 0.143 0.077 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 23739 0.123 110.190 3110 00 0.333 0.156 0.216 0.286 OK
TEAM TOTALS 284 62 16 0.143

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tomoyuki SuganoStarter 525.43.54 1.1816.719 6.04321595 5.2 3 2
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 1111.27.23 2.0548.010 1.0022007 0.0 0 0
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 815.90.57 0.75510.218 1.00100113 1.1 4 1

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon WilliamsonStarter 523.65.72 1.6105.715 5.05222398 5.1 2 1
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 1212.14.46 1.2407.410 1.01100116 0.0 0 0
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 1312.22.21 1.14810.314 1.01100219 0.2 2 1
Graham AshcraftMiddle Reliever 1514.31.26 1.3299.415 1.00000114 0.2 0 0
Connor PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1514.12.55 1.63110.216 1.01000016 1.0 3 1

Game Summary

CIN wins 6-4

Detroit Tigers @ Atlanta Braves

DET 15-16 (4.42 RPG / 4.23 RA)
3 - 6
ATL 22-9 (5.65 RPG / 3.42 RA)
ATL WINS Target: DET 3 - 6 ATL Confidence: 68.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
DET010020000311
ATL00030030x69

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff15
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigleSS 2911036 0.327 2120.417 5300 00 0.600 0.339 0.410 0.530 OK
Gleyber Torres2B 2810325 0.243 290.383 5111 01 0.200 0.237 0.390 0.318 OK
Colt Keith3B 278427 0.321 060.352 5200 00 0.400 0.330 0.359 0.384 OK
Riley GreeneLF 3010631 0.292 3170.395 5000 01 0.000 0.324 0.432 0.512 OK
Dillon DinglerC 258722 0.253 5190.337 4100 10 0.250 0.244 0.323 0.474 OK
Kerry CarpenterRF 277818 0.231 6170.319 3011 11 0.000 0.257 0.332 0.602 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 299221 0.228 5120.360 2111 11 0.500 0.246 0.364 0.601 OK
Wenceel PérezCF 15435 0.116 230.156 4200 00 0.500 0.126 0.162 0.254 OK
Jace JungDH 000 0.000 000.000 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333
TEAM TOTALS 3711 33 34 0.297

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 3011328 0.248 290.360 4210 00 0.500 0.249 0.365 0.384 OK
Drake BaldwinDH 3012337 0.301 7250.377 4113 02 0.250 0.280 0.371 0.472 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 3011737 0.316 6180.359 4110 00 0.250 0.354 0.397 0.574 OK
Matt Olson1B 3011735 0.299 8260.378 4000 01 0.000 0.299 0.372 0.619 OK
Austin Riley3B 3011423 0.202 3170.289 3110 10 0.333 0.172 0.250 0.272 OK
Mauricio DubónSS 2810329 0.282 2140.327 4112 01 0.250 0.245 0.290 0.380 OK
Michael Harris IICF 279731 0.320 6200.350 4111 01 0.250 0.372 0.413 0.663 OK
Eli WhiteLF 15367 0.194 260.211 3100 00 0.333 0.210 0.220 0.433 OK
Jonah HeimC 9307 0.233 020.324 3100 00 0.333 0.233 0.324 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 339 66 15 0.273

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tarik SkubalStarter 635.42.80 1.0179.738 5.06220477 6.0 7 2
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 96.44.22 1.56212.79 1.00000113 1.1 2 1
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 1312.50.72 1.2807.210 1.03330025 0.2 2 1
Will VestMiddle Reliever 139.87.35 1.73511.913 1.00111015 0.0 0 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
JR RitchieStarter 17.02.57 1.0009.07 5.082222107 6.0 6 1
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 1312.20.74 0.9029.613 1.01000119 1.0 2 0
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 1412.31.46 1.0579.513 1.00000011 1.1 2 1
Aaron BummerMiddle Reliever 137.85.77 1.6678.17 1.00001115 0.2 2 1
Joel PayampsMiddle Reliever 106.47.03 1.40611.28 1.02110016 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-3

Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles

HOU 11-19 (5.13 RPG / 5.97 RA)
4 - 5
BAL 14-15 (4.48 RPG / 4.93 RA)
BAL WINS Target: HOU 4 - 5 BAL Confidence: 54.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
HOU00003000143
BAL20003000x57

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed6.2
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed6.1
Run Diff-10
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Daniel JohnsonCF 381 0.125 000.125 4000 12 0.000 0.125 0.222 0.125 OK
Carlos CorreaSS 2710128 0.277 2140.368 4000 11 0.000 0.277 0.379 0.421 OK
Jose Altuve2B 2810927 0.248 380.344 4110 01 0.250 0.223 0.302 0.358 OK
Christian Walker1B 3010732 0.299 7230.377 3000 00 0.000 0.303 0.369 0.594 OK
Yainer DiazC 218319 0.229 2120.250 4000 01 0.000 0.243 0.255 0.410 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 259020 0.222 3140.320 4000 01 0.000 0.231 0.305 0.415 OK
Cam SmithRF 3010122 0.218 3120.314 2010 20 0.000 0.169 0.277 0.253 OK
Dustin HarrisLF 6161 0.062 010.211 2110 20 0.500 0.120 0.241 0.240 OK
Yordan AlvarezLF 3011039 0.355 11260.463 3113 10 0.333 0.371 0.447 0.739 OK
TEAM TOTALS 303 43 76 0.100

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Leody TaverasCF 226318 0.286 2150.392 3000 01 0.000 0.256 0.361 0.415 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 2912226 0.213 9180.287 3112 10 0.333 0.214 0.285 0.486 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 269225 0.272 5190.292 3110 10 0.333 0.241 0.270 0.385 OK
Pete Alonso1B 2911122 0.198 4120.299 4000 00 0.000 0.197 0.273 0.363 OK
Adley RutschmanC 155519 0.345 3130.400 4100 00 0.250 0.354 0.398 0.634 OK
Coby Mayo3B 217213 0.181 3110.262 4111 00 0.250 0.196 0.267 0.436 OK
Colton CowserRF 235511 0.200 030.274 3110 10 0.333 0.187 0.241 0.227 OK
Taylor WardLF 2911235 0.312 1110.426 3000 11 0.000 0.321 0.452 0.473 OK
Samuel BasalloC 217719 0.247 590.326 4212 00 0.500 0.306 0.384 0.571 OK
TEAM TOTALS 317 55 42 0.226

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Peter LambertStarter 211.03.27 1.27313.116 5.05553294 6.1 8 2
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 109.46.70 1.5967.78 1.02000015 0.0 0 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 109.84.59 1.63311.913 1.00001018 0.0 0 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 107.414.59 2.97315.813 1.00000010 0.0 0 0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris BassittStarter 520.47.06 2.1574.410 5.03434399 4.2 5 1
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 1412.40.73 0.40310.915 1.00001022 0.2 2 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 1313.42.69 0.89612.118 1.00001013 1.0 2 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 147.82.31 0.76910.49 1.00001119 0.2 2 0
Grant WolframMiddle Reliever 117.23.75 1.66720.016 1.00000214 0.2 2 1

Game Summary

BAL wins 5-4

Kansas City Royals @ Oakland Athletics

KC 12-17 (4.17 RPG / 4.72 RA)
6 - 1
OAK 15-14 (4.14 RPG / 4.52 RA)
KC WINS Target: KC 6 - 4 OAK Confidence: 65.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
KC000200040610
OAK00000001015

KC Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff-2
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak4W

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 2710428 0.269 2100.342 4000 10 0.000 0.246 0.319 0.358 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 2911433 0.289 2150.362 4000 11 0.000 0.297 0.365 0.501 OK
Carter JensenC 268322 0.265 6160.347 4000 11 0.000 0.300 0.394 0.527 OK
Salvador Perez1B 2811222 0.196 5100.229 5211 02 0.400 0.225 0.244 0.410 OK
Michael Massey2B 164611 0.239 160.265 4110 01 0.250 0.243 0.268 0.435 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 227216 0.222 280.341 4110 01 0.250 0.239 0.348 0.333 OK
Jac CaglianoneDH 258421 0.250 240.330 4210 00 0.500 0.261 0.338 0.454 OK
Lane ThomasRF 205513 0.236 150.364 4211 02 0.500 0.265 0.395 0.350 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 236920 0.290 380.355 4214 01 0.500 0.281 0.320 0.452 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3710 66 39 0.270

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Kurtz1B 289923 0.232 5120.415 4100 00 0.250 0.251 0.437 0.493 OK
Shea LangeliersC 2811737 0.316 8140.370 4211 00 0.500 0.311 0.355 0.544 OK
Carlos CortesLF 236224 0.387 4130.457 4000 00 0.000 0.426 0.480 0.790 OK
Brent RookerDH 14506 0.120 280.220 3000 12 0.000 0.108 0.232 0.253 OK
Jacob WilsonSS 2812033 0.275 2150.279 4000 02 0.000 0.283 0.285 0.398 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 278724 0.276 160.347 3000 10 0.000 0.276 0.350 0.386 OK
Zack GelofCF 10287 0.250 140.276 4000 02 0.000 0.260 0.286 0.409 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 278716 0.184 290.260 3100 00 0.333 0.185 0.267 0.253 OK
Darell Hernaiz3B 13316 0.194 120.306 3100 00 0.333 0.190 0.314 0.298 OK
TEAM TOTALS 325 11 26 0.156

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael WachaStarter 532.12.52 0.9357.928 6.04001380 5.0 5 0
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 1311.44.74 1.7547.910 1.00001120 0.2 2 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 1110.24.41 1.47110.612 1.01110117 0.2 2 0
Nick MearsMiddle Reliever 1210.32.62 1.1657.99 1.00000113 0.2 2 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis SeverinoStarter 630.45.33 1.6129.532 5.062224101 5.0 4 1
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 96.72.69 1.3435.44 1.00000114 1.1 0 1
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 1712.83.52 2.03112.017 1.00111220 0.0 0 0
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 1410.87.50 2.03710.813 1.04330124 0.0 0 0
Justin SternerMiddle Reliever 1413.84.57 1.73911.718 1.00000113 1.1 2 1

Game Summary

KC wins 6-1

Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox

LAA 12-20 (4.69 RPG / 5.03 RA)
3 - 7
CHW 14-17 (4.16 RPG / 4.94 RA)
CHW WINS Target: LAA 4 - 6 CHW Confidence: 71.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAA00002001035
CHW00101500x78

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.100
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed5.9
Run Diff-23
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak6L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff10
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 3112530 0.240 5150.349 5100 01 0.200 0.234 0.340 0.384 OK
Mike TroutDH 3010526 0.248 9200.436 2110 21 0.500 0.258 0.448 0.537 OK
Yoán Moncada3B 267915 0.190 390.326 4000 00 0.000 0.203 0.341 0.304 OK
Jorge SolerRF 279823 0.235 6230.333 4000 00 0.000 0.241 0.337 0.471 OK
Jo AdellLF 3112633 0.262 4190.304 4000 01 0.000 0.227 0.268 0.324 OK
Josh LoweCF 247314 0.192 4100.250 4211 02 0.500 0.226 0.267 0.430 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 113412 0.353 030.425 2000 21 0.000 0.407 0.500 0.556 OK
Travis d'ArnaudC 8224 0.182 000.333 4112 01 0.250 0.182 0.280 0.227 OK
Adam Frazier2B 204913 0.265 150.357 3000 11 0.000 0.182 0.182 0.273 OK
TEAM TOTALS 325 33 58 0.156

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chase Meidroth2B 2810527 0.257 130.336 4010 12 0.000 0.270 0.345 0.326 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 2910322 0.214 6140.364 3010 23 0.000 0.254 0.419 0.542 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 3010826 0.241 12230.366 4211 12 0.500 0.265 0.370 0.633 OK
Austin HaysDH 10347 0.206 160.229 4214 11 0.500 0.206 0.229 0.324 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 3010625 0.236 8200.341 5212 01 0.400 0.268 0.351 0.600 OK
Edgar QueroC 206511 0.169 040.267 3210 10 0.667 0.182 0.297 0.206 OK
Derek HillRF 17358 0.229 110.270 4000 02 0.000 0.230 0.314 0.336 OK
Luisangel AcuñaCF 237013 0.186 030.256 2010 21 0.000 0.180 0.274 0.203 OK
Sam AntonacciLF 11347 0.206 140.317 3000 11 0.000 0.212 0.302 0.405 OK
TEAM TOTALS 328 77 913 0.250

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Yusei KikuchiStarter 628.36.36 1.62510.232 3.03004681 5.1 4 2
Drew PomeranzMiddle Reliever 1210.49.52 1.8277.89 1.00111221 0.0 0 0
Sam BachmanMiddle Reliever 1013.54.00 1.48110.015 1.02110014 0.2 0 1
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 148.04.50 2.25011.210 1.02553137 0.0 0 0
Brent SuterMiddle Reliever 1118.33.44 1.3118.918 1.00001219 1.0 2 1
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 1012.76.38 1.41712.017 1.01000218 1.0 2 1

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Erick FeddeStarter 525.43.54 1.1815.716 5.032245106 6.0 3 1
Jordan LeasureMiddle Reliever 88.34.34 1.0849.89 1.00001118 1.1 2 1
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 1.01000012 0.2 2 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 129.81.84 1.93913.815 1.01110117 1.0 2 1
Tyler Davis 000.00 0.0000.00 1.00000116 - - -

Game Summary

CHW wins 7-3

Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers

MIA 15-16 (4.35 RPG / 4.32 RA)
2 - 3
LAD 20-11 (5.39 RPG / 3.26 RA)
LAD WINS Target: MIA 3 - 4 LAD Confidence: 57.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIA01100000025
LAD00020000138

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff18
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jakob MarseeCF 3011421 0.184 180.304 3100 00 0.333 0.208 0.322 0.315 OK
Kyle StowersDH 8328 0.250 010.333 4100 01 0.250 0.250 0.314 0.344 OK
Otto LopezSS 2911437 0.325 3120.366 4211 02 0.500 0.309 0.340 0.443 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 3010937 0.339 190.438 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.453 0.428 OK
Liam HicksC 289028 0.311 6270.350 4111 00 0.250 0.312 0.351 0.544 OK
Connor Norby1B 279021 0.233 3100.333 4000 01 0.000 0.209 0.303 0.336 OK
Owen CaissieRF 278518 0.212 2150.247 4000 01 0.000 0.190 0.226 0.299 OK
Graham Pauley3B 226413 0.203 190.239 3000 01 0.000 0.221 0.262 0.375 OK
Esteury RuizLF 120 0.000 000.000 2000 11 0.000 0.245 0.307 0.398
TEAM TOTALS 325 22 18 0.156

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 2810830 0.278 6130.398 4000 02 0.000 0.289 0.401 0.500 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 2811130 0.270 3150.341 4210 01 0.500 0.270 0.354 0.400 OK
Andy PagesCF 3010835 0.324 5250.370 4100 01 0.250 0.272 0.324 0.428 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 2911327 0.239 3150.326 4100 00 0.250 0.241 0.314 0.374 OK
Max Muncy3B 289828 0.286 9110.375 4212 00 0.500 0.309 0.401 0.618 OK
Dalton RushingC 134315 0.349 7160.417 4211 01 0.500 0.316 0.398 0.810 OK
Hyeseong KimSS 185115 0.294 170.362 3000 02 0.000 0.300 0.351 0.374 OK
Alex CallLF 9268 0.308 020.419 3000 00 0.000 0.308 0.442 0.385 OK
Alex Freeland2B 257417 0.230 160.293 3000 02 0.000 0.251 0.316 0.337 OK
TEAM TOTALS 338 33 09 0.242

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sandy AlcantaraStarter 641.13.07 1.1195.927 6.06220694 4.0 5 1
Tyler PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1017.41.55 1.4379.819 1.00000111 1.1 4 0
John KingMiddle Reliever 1410.10.89 0.69310.712 1.00000217 1.0 2 0
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 128.66.28 1.97713.613 0.12110011 1.0 2 1

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler GlasnowStarter 533.02.45 0.69710.438 5.04221785 4.2 5 0
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 1512.42.18 0.8069.413 1.0000008 1.1 2 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 129.41.91 0.95713.414 1.00000013 1.0 2 0
Blake TreinenMiddle Reliever 107.51.20 1.33310.89 1.01000017 0.2 2 0
Will KleinMiddle Reliever 810.32.62 1.35910.512 1.00000110 0.2 2 1

Game Summary

LAD wins 3-2

New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers

NYY 20-11 (4.94 RPG / 3.42 RA)
7 - 3
TEX 15-16 (3.87 RPG / 3.61 RA)
NYY WINS Target: NYY 4 - 3 TEX Confidence: 62.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYY20003000278
TEX00201000036

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed2.4
Run Diff26
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.0
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-5
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 288914 0.157 4160.309 5110 00 0.200 0.159 0.304 0.337 OK
Ben Rice1B 289429 0.309 10220.436 4212 10 0.500 0.288 0.412 0.691 OK
Aaron JudgeDH 3010728 0.262 12200.392 4214 10 0.500 0.282 0.435 0.687 OK
Cody BellingerRF 2910425 0.240 3150.347 4111 00 0.250 0.236 0.351 0.414 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 2910522 0.210 3100.291 4110 02 0.250 0.231 0.314 0.406 OK
Jasson DomínguezLF 281 0.125 000.125 4000 02 0.000 0.125 0.125 0.125 OK
J.C. EscarraC 9286 0.214 050.241 4000 02 0.000 0.214 0.241 0.357 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 266912 0.174 270.269 2010 22 0.000 0.194 0.281 0.290 OK
José CaballeroSS 2910227 0.265 3110.312 4110 02 0.250 0.299 0.328 0.457 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 77 410 0.229

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoRF 3012235 0.287 4120.358 5112 01 0.200 0.267 0.324 0.399 OK
Josh Jung3B 279731 0.320 4150.385 5210 01 0.400 0.340 0.411 0.631 OK
Corey SeagerSS 2910823 0.213 6170.310 2000 20 0.000 0.208 0.288 0.386 OK
Joc PedersonDH 286715 0.224 250.346 3111 10 0.333 0.219 0.345 0.330 OK
Jake Burger1B 3011826 0.220 5190.256 4000 00 0.000 0.174 0.222 0.271 OK
Evan CarterCF 298617 0.198 390.307 4000 01 0.000 0.201 0.314 0.347 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 12419 0.220 130.304 2000 21 0.000 0.212 0.297 0.333 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 573 0.429 010.600 4000 02 0.000 0.429 0.600 0.429 OK
Ezequiel Duran2B 205715 0.263 180.323 4200 01 0.500 0.268 0.338 0.383 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 33 57 0.182

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Elmer Rodriguez-CruzStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 4.05114599 0.0 0 0
David BednarMiddle Reliever 1312.23.69 1.72110.314 2.00000111 1.1 2 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 135.86.21 2.93126.417 1.00111017 1.0 3 1
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 1611.92.27 1.84911.315 1.00110013 1.0 3 1
Tim HillMiddle Reliever 1210.61.70 0.7553.44 1.01000118 1.1 2 0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nathan EovaldiStarter 632.25.87 1.4918.932 5.07552699 6.1 5 2
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1314.11.91 0.7803.86 1.00001219 0.2 2 1
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 1411.65.43 1.37911.615 1.00000011 0.0 0 0
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 1213.51.33 0.5198.713 1.00000111 1.1 3 1
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 1312.70.71 1.3398.512 1.01221121 0.2 2 1

Game Summary

NYY wins 7-3

Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins

SEA 16-16 (4.19 RPG / 3.97 RA)
2 - 5
MIN 13-18 (4.74 RPG / 4.77 RA)
MIN WINS Target: SEA 3 - 4 MIN Confidence: 57.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SEA00000200024
MIN00004010x57

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 237714 0.182 160.344 3000 11 0.000 0.183 0.324 0.282 OK
Cal RaleighC 3112224 0.197 7170.277 3112 01 0.333 0.223 0.297 0.498 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 3112131 0.256 2120.333 4000 01 0.000 0.297 0.355 0.413 OK
Josh Naylor1B 2810924 0.220 4150.295 4100 01 0.250 0.294 0.368 0.458 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 3111133 0.297 2110.385 3110 11 0.333 0.308 0.374 0.508 OK
Luke RaleyRF 288221 0.256 5130.315 4100 02 0.250 0.198 0.263 0.422 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 256317 0.270 3120.329 2000 21 0.000 0.303 0.351 0.532 OK
Cole Young2B 3110830 0.278 3160.352 4000 01 0.000 0.318 0.369 0.439 OK
Will Wilson3B 121 0.500 120.500 4000 01 0.000 0.245 0.307 0.398 OK
TEAM TOTALS 314 22 410 0.129

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 2711427 0.237 7100.296 4211 00 0.500 0.238 0.292 0.493 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 216216 0.258 180.395 4114 01 0.250 0.255 0.406 0.392 OK
Josh BellDH 2910224 0.235 3160.331 4000 00 0.000 0.233 0.319 0.316 OK
Ryan JeffersC 207120 0.282 3180.400 4110 01 0.250 0.262 0.400 0.439 OK
Kody Clemens1B 206512 0.185 380.274 4000 02 0.000 0.193 0.256 0.353 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 2911325 0.221 1130.276 3210 00 0.667 0.221 0.268 0.277 OK
Matt WallnerRF 269316 0.172 370.274 3000 02 0.000 0.142 0.253 0.213 OK
Brooks LeeSS 269122 0.242 5150.310 3000 01 0.000 0.242 0.326 0.430 OK
Royce Lewis3B 186012 0.200 3100.304 2110 10 0.500 0.209 0.303 0.352 OK
TEAM TOTALS 317 55 17 0.226

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
George KirbyStarter 638.43.05 1.0686.829 5.05441485 5.0 8 1
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 1210.36.99 1.55315.718 1.00000113 0.0 0 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 1310.40.00 0.4816.98 1.02110121 1.1 3 1
Gabe SpeierMiddle Reliever 149.82.76 1.5319.210 1.00000111 0.0 0 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Taj BradleyStarter 633.32.97 1.32110.037 5.02001576 5.1 3 0
Cole SandsMiddle Reliever 129.85.51 1.63310.111 1.01112230 0.2 1 1
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 117.84.62 1.9238.17 1.00111017 0.2 2 1
Justin TopaMiddle Reliever 1711.14.05 1.7128.911 1.00000112 1.1 2 0
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 1110.53.43 1.3339.411 1.01000221 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-2

San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies

SF 13-16 (3.34 RPG / 4.17 RA)
4 - 5
PHI 10-19 (3.76 RPG / 5.38 RA)
PHI WINS Target: SF 3 - 5 PHI Confidence: 51.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SF00040000049
PHI20200100x57

SF Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drew GilbertCF 12379 0.243 250.282 5100 02 0.200 0.255 0.287 0.425 OK
Willy AdamesSS 2811423 0.202 360.242 5100 01 0.200 0.167 0.190 0.276 OK
Luis Arraez2B 2810834 0.315 080.345 5211 00 0.400 0.316 0.340 0.374 OK
Rafael Devers1B 2911424 0.211 2100.250 4000 11 0.000 0.206 0.238 0.289 OK
Patrick BaileyC 237010 0.143 150.211 3111 10 0.333 0.141 0.214 0.207 OK
Matt Chapman3B 2911030 0.273 1120.344 3100 11 0.333 0.275 0.359 0.340 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 2910331 0.301 2100.345 4111 00 0.250 0.338 0.377 0.505 OK
Heliot RamosLF 2810127 0.267 3140.308 3000 11 0.000 0.294 0.339 0.527 OK
Casey Schmitt1B 238424 0.286 4130.337 4211 01 0.500 0.274 0.319 0.540 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 44 47 0.250

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Justin CrawfordCF 258220 0.244 040.319 4110 02 0.250 0.207 0.280 0.270 OK
Trea TurnerSS 2911830 0.254 3100.323 4210 00 0.500 0.250 0.330 0.360 OK
Bryson Stott2B 238017 0.212 040.267 4110 01 0.250 0.222 0.272 0.287 OK
Bryce Harper1B 2910829 0.269 6190.350 4112 00 0.250 0.256 0.334 0.474 OK
Rafael MarchánC 13444 0.091 120.149 4000 01 0.000 0.103 0.133 0.103 OK
Alec Bohm3B 2810216 0.157 1120.228 3213 00 0.667 0.172 0.239 0.229 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 2910324 0.233 390.310 3000 00 0.000 0.240 0.309 0.400 OK
Brandon MarshLF 269428 0.298 4170.320 2000 11 0.000 0.293 0.314 0.464 OK
Kyle SchwarberLF 2910520 0.190 9170.346 3000 01 0.000 0.177 0.329 0.492 OK
TEAM TOTALS 317 55 16 0.226

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan WebbStarter 637.04.86 1.3787.832 3.06440250 5.1 6 1
Ryan WalkerMiddle Reliever 1210.63.40 1.50910.212 1.00000117 0.1 1 1
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 118.74.14 1.60916.616 1.0000006 0.0 0 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 1210.22.65 0.58811.513 1.01110114 0.2 2 1
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 129.90.91 1.11112.714 1.00001221 0.2 2 0
Matt GageMiddle Reliever 139.91.82 1.4147.38 1.00000012 1.0 3 1

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cristopher SánchezStarter 633.22.98 1.62711.743 4.06222587 5.2 8 0
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 1210.54.29 1.1438.610 1.00000013 0.2 2 1
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 137.89.23 2.43612.711 1.00110010 0.0 0 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 109.32.90 1.3987.78 1.02000017 0.2 2 0
Tim MayzaMiddle Reliever 1415.34.12 1.0469.416 1.00002125 1.1 2 1
Tanner BanksMiddle Reliever 109.35.81 2.36611.612 1.01110118 0.2 2 1

Game Summary

PHI wins 5-4

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

STL 17-13 (4.83 RPG / 5.1 RA)
4 - 2
PIT 16-15 (4.77 RPG / 4.23 RA)
STL WINS Target: STL 5 - 4 PIT Confidence: 56.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
STL013000000410
PIT00000002026

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff3
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 2910826 0.241 6140.368 4110 11 0.250 0.247 0.345 0.476 OK
Iván HerreraC 2910124 0.238 4130.414 5100 00 0.200 0.257 0.398 0.467 OK
Alec Burleson1B 2811029 0.264 3200.344 4100 11 0.250 0.253 0.322 0.422 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 2810630 0.283 8190.358 5211 02 0.400 0.256 0.345 0.426 OK
Nolan GormanDH 289521 0.221 4180.287 4213 01 0.500 0.230 0.292 0.372 OK
Masyn WinnSS 239224 0.261 1130.324 4000 02 0.000 0.293 0.338 0.422 OK
Nathan ChurchLF 237619 0.250 5120.293 4310 00 0.750 0.269 0.313 0.525 OK
Ramón Urías3B 16509 0.180 250.250 3000 11 0.000 0.151 0.259 0.276 OK
Victor Scott IICF 257314 0.192 150.241 4000 01 0.000 0.152 0.207 0.228 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3710 44 39 0.270

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 2811731 0.265 9250.323 5200 00 0.400 0.237 0.285 0.523 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 259924 0.242 7190.336 3111 11 0.333 0.229 0.300 0.430 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 3010626 0.245 3170.386 4000 01 0.000 0.230 0.386 0.315 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 279932 0.323 5200.405 3111 00 0.333 0.316 0.396 0.509 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 249415 0.160 280.218 4000 02 0.000 0.153 0.202 0.250 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 269732 0.330 0150.363 4100 01 0.250 0.387 0.416 0.440 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 277820 0.256 280.362 3100 12 0.333 0.279 0.379 0.390 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 238419 0.226 2130.283 3000 01 0.000 0.228 0.270 0.361 OK
Joey BartC 13386 0.158 120.220 3000 11 0.000 0.167 0.200 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 326 22 39 0.188

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andre PallanteStarter 525.14.30 1.4347.220 5.02001780 5.0 2 0
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 1413.41.34 0.82110.716 1.01000011 1.1 3 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 1311.14.86 1.4416.58 1.01000216 0.2 2 1
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 139.19.89 2.74716.817 1.02221030 0.0 0 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 1310.75.05 1.2158.410 1.00001025 0.2 2 1

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bubba ChandlerStarter 523.35.02 1.5458.121 3.04442470 4.0 2 1
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 1413.23.41 1.2886.810 1.0000009 0.2 2 1
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 1514.21.90 0.84512.720 1.00000115 0.2 0 0
Isaac MattsonMiddle Reliever 1614.61.23 1.3017.412 1.02000221 1.1 3 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 1310.74.21 1.58918.522 1.03000122 1.0 2 1
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever 1215.82.28 1.26610.819 1.01000116 1.1 4 0
Paul Skenes 000.00 0.0000.00 1.00001017 - - -

Game Summary

STL wins 4-2

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians

TB 18-12 (4.57 RPG / 4.6 RA)
1 - 0
CLE 16-16 (3.84 RPG / 4.09 RA)
TB WINS Target: TB 3 - 2 CLE Confidence: 57.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TB00000100019
CLE00000000004

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 2911435 0.307 060.344 5000 02 0.000 0.282 0.331 0.318 OK
Junior Caminero3B 2911329 0.257 8150.331 5200 00 0.400 0.264 0.315 0.537 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 2910524 0.229 7250.344 5000 02 0.000 0.240 0.353 0.520 OK
Yandy DíazDH 2911136 0.324 4200.419 4100 01 0.250 0.292 0.384 0.416 OK
Jake FraleyRF 205614 0.250 240.333 2211 20 1.000 0.263 0.341 0.518 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 259112 0.132 280.192 4000 01 0.000 0.128 0.184 0.242 OK
Richie Palacios2B 194310 0.233 150.382 3000 11 0.000 0.238 0.333 0.286 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 14297 0.241 030.353 4100 01 0.250 0.200 0.333 0.200 OK
Taylor WallsSS 185611 0.196 040.308 4300 00 0.750 0.157 0.290 0.191 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 11 38 0.250

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 2810924 0.220 180.306 3000 10 0.000 0.191 0.294 0.241 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 279824 0.245 5160.324 3100 11 0.333 0.244 0.325 0.428 OK
José RamírezDH 3111325 0.221 6120.343 4000 02 0.000 0.222 0.339 0.438 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 268316 0.193 160.272 4100 01 0.250 0.196 0.277 0.245 OK
Daniel Schneemann3B 247423 0.311 4140.386 4100 01 0.250 0.320 0.409 0.607 OK
Angel MartínezLF 269025 0.278 5150.316 4000 03 0.000 0.276 0.299 0.549 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 120 0.000 000.500 3000 01 0.000 0.245 0.307 0.398
Bo NaylorC 20648 0.125 130.176 3000 01 0.000 0.117 0.167 0.208 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 309525 0.263 3170.346 3100 00 0.333 0.295 0.352 0.417 OK
TEAM TOTALS 314 00 210 0.129

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Drew RasmussenStarter 525.22.50 0.7549.326 6.03001599 4.2 5 0
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 1211.13.24 1.08110.513 1.01000217 1.0 2 0
Griffin JaxMiddle Reliever 119.05.00 1.66712.012 1.00001117 1.0 2 0
Ian SeymourMiddle Reliever 1111.04.09 1.36413.917 1.00000215 1.1 4 0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gavin WilliamsStarter 635.23.32 1.10811.244 5.03001570 5.1 6 0
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 1313.04.15 1.46210.415 1.02000118 1.1 0 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 65.17.06 1.37310.66 1.02000122 0.0 0 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever 1510.33.50 1.26218.321 1.01002127 0.2 2 0
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever 116.00.00 1.8336.04 1.01110013 0.1 1 1

Game Summary

TB wins 1-0

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets

WAS 13-17 (5.2 RPG / 5.97 RA)
2 - 4
NYM 10-19 (3.45 RPG / 4.21 RA)
NYM WINS Target: WAS 3 - 4 NYM Confidence: 57.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
WAS00020000028
NYM00000031x44

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff-8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodDH 3011427 0.237 10210.400 4111 01 0.250 0.220 0.423 0.564 OK
Curtis Mead1B 215710 0.175 3100.266 4100 00 0.250 0.150 0.239 0.375 OK
Brady House3B 2710624 0.226 3100.281 4100 00 0.250 0.214 0.271 0.321 OK
CJ AbramsSS 2910127 0.267 7210.377 4000 00 0.000 0.195 0.298 0.372 OK
Jacob YoungCF 269322 0.237 2120.276 4100 01 0.250 0.232 0.270 0.313 OK
Daylen LileLF 2911932 0.269 3140.336 4200 01 0.500 0.261 0.356 0.464 OK
Joey WiemerRF 185016 0.320 370.414 4000 02 0.000 0.301 0.392 0.569 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 268717 0.195 0100.300 3211 11 0.667 0.192 0.299 0.199 OK
Keibert RuizC 175010 0.200 190.226 4000 02 0.000 0.203 0.221 0.325 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 22 18 0.229

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Bo Bichette3B 2911828 0.237 2140.276 4000 00 0.000 0.245 0.282 0.352 OK
Juan SotoDH 145015 0.300 270.407 3000 11 0.000 0.289 0.398 0.470 OK
MJ MelendezLF 9257 0.280 120.333 3111 11 0.333 0.280 0.333 0.520 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 267918 0.228 470.319 4000 02 0.000 0.201 0.276 0.320 OK
Brett Baty1B 258518 0.212 1120.233 3000 01 0.000 0.218 0.286 0.341 OK
Tyrone TaylorCF 18439 0.209 270.227 3110 02 0.333 0.217 0.230 0.375 OK
Carson BengeRF 258216 0.195 260.258 3113 01 0.333 0.226 0.275 0.340 OK
Marcus Semien2B 2910322 0.214 190.274 2000 10 0.000 0.228 0.288 0.308 OK
Ronny MauricioSS 6185 0.278 010.278 3110 01 0.333 0.278 0.278 0.278 OK
TEAM TOTALS 284 44 39 0.143

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cade CavalliStarter 623.54.21 1.74510.728 6.02221784 5.0 4 1
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 129.73.71 1.64912.113 1.02112131 1.0 2 0
Cionel PérezMiddle Reliever 1312.35.12 1.6266.69 1.00110115 0.2 2 1

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
David PetersonStarter 625.55.29 1.7258.524 5.08220688 5.0 5 0
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 97.37.40 2.19218.515 1.00000111 0.0 0 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 119.65.62 1.2506.67 1.00000013 1.0 3 1
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever 117.82.31 1.28212.711 1.00000013 1.0 2 0
Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever 129.61.88 1.45810.311 1.00001122 1.1 3 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 4-2