MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

April 27, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (8 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
BOS @ TOR3 - 53 - 5TOR wins 5-360%enhanced_ml
CHC @ SD5 - 46 - 4CHC wins 6-470%enhanced_ml
LAA @ CHW4 - 64 - 6CHW wins 6-4 (Extra Innings - 11)76%enhanced_ml
MIA @ LAD3 - 75 - 6LAD wins 6-572%enhanced_ml
NYY @ TEX6 - 24 - 3NYY wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)83%enhanced_ml
SEA @ MIN6 - 26 - 2SEA wins 6-285%enhanced_ml
STL @ PIT4 - 64 - 6PIT wins 6-457%enhanced_ml
TB @ CLE3 - 52 - 3CLE wins 3-265%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

BOS 11-17 (4.18 RPG / 4.57 RA)
3 - 5
TOR 12-15 (4.07 RPG / 4.93 RA)
TOR WINS Target: BOS 3 - 5 TOR Confidence: 60.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BOS00012000037
TOR00300200x59

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 239017 0.189 1110.255 4000 03 0.000 0.185 0.233 0.259 OK
Willson Contreras1B 279524 0.253 6190.374 3222 10 0.667 0.225 0.322 0.446 OK
Roman AnthonyDH 238318 0.217 140.356 4200 01 0.500 0.215 0.372 0.297 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 2710431 0.298 4120.354 4100 02 0.250 0.274 0.336 0.425 OK
Trevor StorySS 2711122 0.198 2170.235 4000 02 0.000 0.203 0.262 0.315 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 236715 0.224 160.293 4101 01 0.250 0.237 0.299 0.363 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 268724 0.276 1100.351 4000 01 0.000 0.263 0.330 0.414 OK
Carlos NarváezC 175714 0.246 120.271 3110 01 0.333 0.239 0.263 0.349 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 268915 0.169 1100.260 4000 01 0.000 0.195 0.282 0.338 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 33 112 0.206

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Myles StrawCF 183812 0.316 130.366 4111 00 0.250 0.312 0.364 0.470 OK
Ernie ClementSS 2711236 0.321 070.327 3100 10 0.333 0.345 0.349 0.491 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 2710034 0.340 2140.426 4111 00 0.250 0.348 0.412 0.471 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 269622 0.229 5110.315 3110 11 0.333 0.240 0.329 0.461 OK
Lenyn Sosa2B 9256 0.240 040.231 4101 01 0.250 0.244 0.241 0.321 OK
Eloy JiménezDH 10259 0.360 030.414 4100 00 0.250 0.360 0.419 0.360 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 267921 0.266 4150.315 4110 02 0.250 0.256 0.305 0.453 OK
Davis SchneiderLF 17436 0.140 150.275 3000 13 0.000 0.104 0.269 0.191 OK
Tyler HeinemanC 15398 0.205 020.244 4212 01 0.500 0.115 0.115 0.115 OK
TEAM TOTALS 339 55 38 0.273

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ranger SuarezStarter 526.34.11 1.1796.519 6.063316120 4.0 1 0
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 98.21.10 0.97611.010 2.03222245 1.0 2 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dylan CeaseStarter 525.22.14 1.31015.744 6.053319108 5.0 8 2
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 1310.57.71 2.19021.425 1.00000013 1.0 2 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 1413.40.67 0.8964.77 1.01000118 0.667 2 0
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever 137.25.00 1.52818.815 1.01000216 1.0 1 1

Game Summary

TOR wins 5-3

Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres

CHC 17-11 (5.32 RPG / 4.21 RA)
6 - 4
SD 18-9 (4.56 RPG / 4.11 RA)
CHC WINS Target: CHC 5 - 4 SD Confidence: 70.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CHC00002013067
SD00000300146

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff12
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SD Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 2811435 0.307 4230.382 4102 11 0.250 0.296 0.359 0.452 OK
Michael Busch1B 2710322 0.214 2110.299 5000 00 0.000 0.252 0.322 0.386 OK
Alex Bregman3B 2811529 0.252 3100.336 4100 11 0.250 0.259 0.341 0.400 OK
Ian HappDH 2610224 0.235 7140.350 5110 01 0.200 0.252 0.379 0.499 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 165918 0.305 480.414 3112 11 0.333 0.316 0.409 0.593 OK
Moisés BallesterosC 235823 0.397 4110.438 4000 01 0.000 0.427 0.480 0.767 OK
Michael ConfortoLF 14248 0.333 040.467 3232 10 0.667 0.356 0.491 0.494 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 289418 0.191 6210.325 3000 10 0.000 0.185 0.308 0.414 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 2810525 0.238 170.298 3110 10 0.333 0.240 0.309 0.322 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 66 65 0.206

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ramón LaureanoLF 259825 0.255 4180.318 5201 00 0.400 0.248 0.313 0.418 OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 2610025 0.250 0110.336 4010 10 0.000 0.256 0.344 0.280 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 2610322 0.214 3140.283 3010 11 0.000 0.190 0.256 0.298 OK
Manny Machado3B 269119 0.209 4160.327 4000 03 0.000 0.215 0.301 0.368 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 269727 0.278 4160.358 2110 20 0.500 0.285 0.375 0.442 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 186119 0.311 050.344 4102 00 0.250 0.320 0.340 0.454 OK
Ty France1B 11349 0.265 330.306 2111 10 0.500 0.280 0.315 0.605 OK
Nick CastellanosRF 16487 0.146 050.196 4000 02 0.000 0.145 0.193 0.205 OK
Freddy FerminC 14438 0.186 030.315 4100 02 0.250 0.188 0.381 0.250 OK
TEAM TOTALS 326 44 58 0.188

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matthew BoydStarter 312.66.43 1.27015.722 5.02002583 6.2 5 2
Ben BrownMiddle Reliever 818.32.46 1.1489.820 2.02333152 3.0 3 1
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 127.85.77 2.69212.711 1.00000110 1.0 1 1
Ryan RolisonMiddle Reliever 24.00.00 0.7502.21 1.02110116 2.0 2 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Randy VásquezStarter 528.21.91 1.0999.630 6.033362123 4.0 2 2
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 1313.10.00 0.38218.527 1.00000111 1.1 4 1
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 1211.86.86 1.69511.415 1.03330122 1.0 3 1
David MorganMiddle Reliever 1010.86.67 2.40711.714 1.01000115 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 6-4

Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox

LAA 12-17 (4.79 RPG / 5.0 RA)
4 - 6
CHW 11-17 (4.04 RPG / 5.07 RA)
CHW WINS Target: LAA 4 - 6 CHW Confidence: 76.2% enhanced_ml
1234567891011RH
LAA0004000000046
CHW00000201102611

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff9
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 2911528 0.243 5140.360 3010 23 0.000 0.246 0.355 0.406 OK
Mike TroutCF 289923 0.232 9200.415 3110 10 0.333 0.227 0.432 0.540 OK
Vaughn Grissom2B 92810 0.357 020.455 5210 00 0.400 0.357 0.471 0.464 OK
Jorge SolerDH 259121 0.231 5200.333 5114 00 0.200 0.236 0.333 0.432 OK
Jo AdellRF 2911731 0.265 4180.310 5000 01 0.000 0.239 0.288 0.381 OK
Oswald Peraza3B 237521 0.280 480.341 5100 01 0.200 0.288 0.355 0.483 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 2610423 0.221 3180.284 5000 00 0.000 0.225 0.278 0.351 OK
Travis d'ArnaudC 7203 0.150 000.292 4100 02 0.250 0.150 0.227 0.200 OK
Bryce TeodosioLF 11306 0.200 010.226 4000 02 0.000 0.308 0.357 0.308 OK
TEAM TOTALS 396 44 39 0.154

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Andrew BenintendiDH 268217 0.207 2110.250 5212 13 0.400 0.222 0.255 0.421 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 289923 0.232 11200.369 6311 00 0.500 0.260 0.371 0.628 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 279820 0.204 5130.347 6000 05 0.000 0.232 0.376 0.491 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 289822 0.224 7190.339 5101 11 0.200 0.260 0.363 0.580 OK
Everson PereiraRF 165816 0.276 370.338 5201 00 0.400 0.281 0.340 0.479 OK
Sam AntonacciLF 10307 0.233 140.351 4101 10 0.250 0.229 0.324 0.437 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 269926 0.263 130.345 5100 02 0.200 0.298 0.376 0.366 OK
Tristan PetersCF 16429 0.214 010.267 5010 03 0.000 0.178 0.227 0.195 OK
Edgar QueroC 196210 0.161 040.254 3130 20 0.333 0.161 0.283 0.185 OK
TEAM TOTALS 4411 66 514 0.250

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack KochanowiczStarter 527.63.26 1.3046.219 6.06220895 4.2 3 3
Drew PomeranzMiddle Reliever 119.48.62 1.8096.77 2.03112348 0.667 2 0
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 1012.76.38 1.41712.017 3.02333366 1.0 3 0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Anthony KayStarter 518.96.19 1.7466.213 6.034435100 4.0 3 3
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 2.02000232 1.0 2 0
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever 20.390.00 20.00030.01 3.01000236 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

CHW wins 6-4 (Extra Innings - 11)

Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers

MIA 13-15 (4.5 RPG / 4.5 RA)
5 - 6
LAD 19-9 (5.68 RPG / 3.29 RA)
LAD WINS Target: MIA 3 - 7 LAD Confidence: 72.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIA00010040057
LAD00500100x69

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff21
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jakob MarseeCF 2810719 0.178 180.294 3010 21 0.000 0.180 0.294 0.273 OK
Kyle StowersLF 6226 0.273 000.385 5110 00 0.200 0.273 0.360 0.409 OK
Otto LopezSS 2710533 0.314 3120.360 3101 01 0.333 0.312 0.346 0.472 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 2810536 0.343 190.425 3223 10 0.667 0.343 0.438 0.448 OK
Liam HicksDH 278627 0.314 5240.354 4101 00 0.250 0.314 0.353 0.531 OK
Agustín RamírezC 269823 0.235 2120.303 4000 00 0.000 0.225 0.274 0.357 OK
Owen CaissieRF 257817 0.218 2140.259 4000 01 0.000 0.200 0.241 0.321 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 185619 0.339 090.383 3110 10 0.333 0.311 0.396 0.347 OK
Connor Norby1B 258319 0.229 3100.330 4100 01 0.250 0.215 0.301 0.361 OK
TEAM TOTALS 337 55 44 0.212

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 2710327 0.262 6120.391 4211 11 0.500 0.267 0.382 0.471 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 2610428 0.269 3150.333 2110 20 0.500 0.267 0.340 0.413 OK
Will SmithC 227921 0.266 3140.322 4010 11 0.000 0.251 0.310 0.373 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 2710525 0.238 3130.325 4201 10 0.500 0.236 0.302 0.409 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 259222 0.239 4150.297 5111 01 0.200 0.207 0.273 0.353 OK
Max Muncy3B 269027 0.300 9110.394 4213 02 0.500 0.345 0.441 0.756 OK
Andy PagesCF 2810134 0.337 5250.378 4000 02 0.000 0.282 0.332 0.447 OK
Hyeseong KimSS 164515 0.333 170.404 2000 21 0.000 0.347 0.407 0.431 OK
Alex Freeland2B 236816 0.235 160.303 4110 01 0.250 0.254 0.322 0.345 OK
TEAM TOTALS 339 66 79 0.273

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris PaddackStarter 522.66.77 1.63710.025 5.065547103 4.0 3 4
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 98.27.68 1.09814.313 2.02113250 1.1 1 0
Tyler PhillipsMiddle Reliever 816.31.66 1.4119.918 1.01000015 1.2 3 2

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Yoshinobu YamamotoStarter 532.22.52 0.9017.828 6.075544124 5.1 8 4
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 1310.42.60 0.7697.89 1.00000011 0.667 2 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 118.42.14 0.95211.811 1.00000011 1.1 2 0
Jack DreyerMiddle Reliever 1210.64.25 1.13211.914 1.00000013 0.667 1 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-5

New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers

NYY 18-10 (5.21 RPG / 3.54 RA)
4 - 3
TEX 14-14 (4.04 RPG / 3.75 RA)
NYY WINS Target: NYY 6 - 2 TEX Confidence: 82.9% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
NYY000200001147
TEX000001200038

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.4
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff30
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 268113 0.160 4160.317 4201 11 0.500 0.165 0.316 0.359 OK
Ben Rice1B 268628 0.326 9200.454 5000 02 0.000 0.321 0.436 0.760 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 2810023 0.230 10180.369 5100 01 0.200 0.226 0.399 0.548 OK
Cody BellingerLF 279624 0.250 3140.362 4010 11 0.000 0.256 0.379 0.426 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 279721 0.216 290.303 4111 00 0.250 0.244 0.349 0.381 OK
Jasson DomínguezDH 000 0.000 000.000 4101 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333
Austin WellsC 226412 0.188 240.338 4100 01 0.250 0.202 0.375 0.314 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 246211 0.177 270.282 3111 11 0.333 0.203 0.300 0.350 OK
José CaballeroSS 279626 0.271 3110.314 4010 02 0.000 0.325 0.357 0.488 OK
TEAM TOTALS 377 44 39 0.189

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoRF 2811432 0.281 4120.352 5310 02 0.600 0.254 0.324 0.422 OK
Josh Jung3B 259128 0.308 4140.360 4111 11 0.250 0.349 0.392 0.705 OK
Corey SeagerSS 2710022 0.220 6170.316 5101 01 0.200 0.235 0.314 0.459 OK
Jake Burger1B 2811125 0.225 5190.256 5110 03 0.200 0.205 0.240 0.308 OK
Andrew McCutchenDH 19378 0.216 150.268 3201 20 0.667 0.197 0.258 0.303 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 11378 0.216 130.310 5000 00 0.000 0.188 0.297 0.312 OK
Sam HaggertyLF 12213 0.143 000.182 3000 10 0.000 0.130 0.173 0.130 OK
Evan CarterCF 278217 0.207 390.320 4000 02 0.000 0.215 0.326 0.361 OK
Ezequiel Duran2B 185314 0.264 180.316 4000 02 0.000 0.258 0.323 0.375 OK
TEAM TOTALS 388 33 411 0.211

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max FriedStarter 640.42.45 0.7927.132 6.04113595 6.0 6 4
David BednarMiddle Reliever 1110.23.53 1.66711.513 2.04220239 1.1 2 0
Camilo DovalMiddle Reliever 117.78.18 1.42910.59 2.00001439 1.0 1 0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack LeiterStarter 524.45.16 1.51610.729 5.02223794 4.1 4 2
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1213.12.06 0.8404.16 2.03000036 1.1 2 0
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 1310.65.09 1.41511.914 1.0000009 0.667 1 0
Jalen BeeksMiddle Reliever 1310.61.70 1.13210.212 2.02220230 1.0 3 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)

Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins

SEA 14-15 (4.07 RPG / 3.86 RA)
6 - 2
MIN 12-16 (4.71 RPG / 4.71 RA)
SEA WINS Target: SEA 6 - 2 MIN Confidence: 85.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SEA01001040067
MIN00000020029

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.100
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-21
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Rob RefsnyderRF 16334 0.121 230.211 3221 21 0.667 0.142 0.227 0.356 OK
Cal RaleighDH 2911323 0.204 6150.289 4000 00 0.000 0.242 0.325 0.489 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 2911228 0.250 2100.333 3111 20 0.333 0.290 0.352 0.378 OK
Josh Naylor1B 2610121 0.208 3110.283 5214 01 0.400 0.262 0.332 0.380 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 2910529 0.276 2110.361 5000 00 0.000 0.260 0.319 0.414 OK
J.P. CrawfordSS 217013 0.186 160.345 3000 12 0.000 0.183 0.309 0.286 OK
Mitch GarverC 11306 0.200 000.314 4100 01 0.250 0.205 0.305 0.240 OK
Cole Young2B 2910127 0.267 3140.351 4110 01 0.250 0.305 0.375 0.432 OK
Leo Rivas3B 236811 0.162 070.275 3010 11 0.000 0.164 0.242 0.204 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 66 67 0.206

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 2510524 0.229 570.287 5112 00 0.200 0.244 0.291 0.479 OK
Brooks LeeSS 258722 0.253 5150.316 5000 01 0.000 0.260 0.332 0.453 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 195413 0.241 170.388 3000 11 0.000 0.232 0.393 0.311 OK
Josh BellDH 279422 0.234 3160.330 4200 01 0.500 0.214 0.296 0.303 OK
Ryan JeffersC 196718 0.269 3160.388 4200 02 0.500 0.268 0.404 0.491 OK
Kody Clemens1B 185710 0.175 230.266 4100 01 0.250 0.188 0.251 0.331 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 2710622 0.208 1120.254 4000 01 0.000 0.203 0.231 0.246 OK
Matt WallnerRF 258916 0.180 370.277 3100 11 0.333 0.148 0.258 0.222 OK
Tristan Gray3B 154512 0.267 3130.306 4210 01 0.500 0.263 0.287 0.474 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 22 29 0.250

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis CastilloStarter 522.45.22 1.7869.223 5.05000580 4.1 5 2
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 1210.36.99 1.55315.718 2.03221343 1.0 2 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 129.40.00 0.5325.76 1.00000111 1.1 2 0
Jose A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 1412.62.14 1.6677.110 1.01001020 1.2 0 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Connor PrielippStarter 14.04.50 1.00013.56 6.032243116 4.0 6 2
Cole SandsMiddle Reliever 119.63.75 1.3549.410 1.02442135 0.667 2 0
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 106.85.29 2.0599.37 1.01000319 0.667 2 1
Anthony BandaMiddle Reliever 138.311.93 1.92811.911 1.01000015 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 6-2

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

STL 14-13 (4.63 RPG / 5.19 RA)
4 - 6
PIT 16-12 (4.82 RPG / 3.96 RA)
PIT WINS Target: STL 4 - 6 PIT Confidence: 57.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
STL30100000048
PIT30001101x610

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 2710124 0.238 5130.363 4111 11 0.250 0.243 0.354 0.421 OK
Iván HerreraDH 279623 0.240 4130.403 5000 00 0.000 0.266 0.392 0.494 OK
Alec Burleson1B 2610225 0.245 3170.328 4110 10 0.250 0.231 0.294 0.375 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 269928 0.283 8160.360 4110 10 0.250 0.252 0.334 0.442 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 268920 0.225 3150.297 3110 11 0.333 0.235 0.299 0.359 OK
Masyn WinnSS 218322 0.265 1120.333 3100 11 0.333 0.299 0.348 0.436 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 216718 0.269 5120.315 4203 01 0.500 0.324 0.369 0.629 OK
Thomas SaggeseLF 15509 0.180 020.241 4000 00 0.000 0.160 0.200 0.187 OK
Pedro PagésC 165213 0.250 270.310 4100 02 0.250 0.262 0.323 0.417 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 44 56 0.229

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 2711229 0.259 8240.320 5110 02 0.200 0.218 0.268 0.471 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 239323 0.247 7190.340 4101 10 0.250 0.257 0.326 0.507 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 289924 0.242 3170.387 4000 02 0.000 0.206 0.372 0.297 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 259229 0.315 4160.398 2120 20 0.500 0.322 0.398 0.475 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 228915 0.169 280.229 4113 00 0.250 0.196 0.252 0.323 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 248927 0.303 0130.340 4211 00 0.500 0.338 0.371 0.376 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 257018 0.257 280.372 3000 11 0.000 0.271 0.384 0.398 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 217617 0.224 1120.286 4210 01 0.500 0.237 0.289 0.343 OK
Henry DavisC 17569 0.161 030.254 4201 01 0.500 0.139 0.235 0.171 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3410 66 47 0.294

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dustin MayStarter 524.25.95 1.5707.420 4.03331471 4.2 4 3
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 1413.41.34 0.82110.716 3.04223267 0.667 2 1
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 1311.14.86 1.4416.58 1.03110127 1.1 2 0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 129.74.64 1.75319.521 5.064455111 1.1 2 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 1313.00.69 0.8466.910 2.02000028 1.1 0 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 1413.22.05 0.83313.620 1.00000113 1.1 2 0
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever 1215.82.28 1.26610.819 1.00000011 2.0 3 1

Game Summary

PIT wins 6-4

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians

TB 16-11 (4.89 RPG / 4.93 RA)
2 - 3
CLE 15-14 (4.07 RPG / 4.34 RA)
CLE WINS Target: TB 3 - 5 CLE Confidence: 64.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TB00000001129
CLE01000002x38

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 2710435 0.337 4200.425 5200 02 0.400 0.315 0.388 0.454 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 279722 0.227 6230.350 3100 20 0.333 0.226 0.370 0.479 OK
Junior Caminero3B 2710828 0.259 8150.336 5000 00 0.000 0.274 0.326 0.569 OK
Ryan ViladeRF 13288 0.286 030.333 4000 00 0.000 0.312 0.377 0.390 OK
Jonny DeLucaCF 195616 0.286 2130.322 4211 00 0.500 0.290 0.330 0.509 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 2710634 0.321 060.354 4000 01 0.000 0.285 0.325 0.308 OK
Ben Williamson2B 237319 0.260 090.325 4310 01 0.750 0.270 0.349 0.397 OK
Nick FortesC 226920 0.290 180.338 3100 10 0.333 0.271 0.310 0.356 OK
Taylor WallsSS 165211 0.212 040.281 3001 02 0.000 0.186 0.263 0.221 OK
TEAM TOTALS 359 22 36 0.257

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 2610223 0.225 180.310 3000 10 0.000 0.215 0.306 0.262 OK
Angel MartínezLF 248324 0.289 5150.330 4000 01 0.000 0.273 0.298 0.543 OK
José Ramírez3B 2910524 0.229 6120.357 4211 00 0.500 0.250 0.400 0.524 OK
Rhys Hoskins1B 226614 0.212 160.358 4110 01 0.250 0.202 0.369 0.280 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 259021 0.233 5160.320 3010 11 0.000 0.209 0.313 0.390 OK
David FryDH 15348 0.235 110.350 4201 00 0.500 0.227 0.366 0.347 OK
Daniel Schneemann2B 226621 0.318 3120.400 4100 01 0.250 0.350 0.451 0.639 OK
Austin HedgesC 10339 0.273 020.306 4201 02 0.500 0.241 0.290 0.276 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 289025 0.278 3170.363 2000 10 0.000 0.322 0.380 0.458 OK
TEAM TOTALS 328 33 36 0.250

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Steven MatzStarter 524.14.85 1.2459.325 6.051134105 4.2 4 3
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 1110.13.56 0.9909.811 2.03220235 1.2 2 0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 530.21.79 0.8948.629 6.050024106 6.1 8 3
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 1313.04.15 1.46210.415 1.01000116 1.0 2 1
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 55.03.60 0.80010.86 1.01110017 1.0 0 0
Connor BrogdonMiddle Reliever 119.56.63 1.15810.411 1.02111127 0.667 2 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 3-2