MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

April 26, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
BOS @ BAL5 - 47 - 2BOS wins 7-262%enhanced_ml
CHC @ LAD6 - 45 - 3CHC wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 10)85%enhanced_ml
CLE @ TOR5 - 45 - 2CLE wins 5-261%enhanced_ml
COL @ NYM4 - 33 - 1COL wins 3-183%enhanced_ml
DET @ CIN4 - 52 - 3CIN wins 3-280%enhanced_ml
LAA @ KC4 - 52 - 7KC wins 7-267%enhanced_ml
MIA @ SF4 - 51 - 4SF wins 4-167%enhanced_ml
MIN @ TB4 - 54 - 8TB wins 8-488%enhanced_ml
NYY @ HOU8 - 34 - 3NYY wins 4-388%enhanced_ml
OAK @ TEX5 - 64 - 8TEX wins 8-455%enhanced_ml
PHI @ ATL1 - 70 - 7ATL wins 7-091%enhanced_ml
PIT @ MIL3 - 26 - 1PIT wins 6-167%enhanced_ml
SD @ ARI5 - 44 - 3SD wins 4-375%enhanced_ml
SEA @ STL4 - 35 - 4SEA wins 5-462%enhanced_ml
WAS @ CHW4 - 55 - 6CHW wins 6-569%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

BOS 10-17 (4.15 RPG / 4.63 RA)
7 - 2
BAL 13-14 (4.52 RPG / 5.0 RA)
BOS WINS Target: BOS 5 - 4 BAL Confidence: 61.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BOS010042000710
BAL00000020027

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed6.5
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 228617 0.198 1110.258 5210 01 0.400 0.199 0.235 0.304 OK
Willson Contreras1B 269223 0.250 5170.369 5000 01 0.000 0.217 0.306 0.394 OK
Roman AnthonyDH 228018 0.225 140.361 2010 30 0.000 0.229 0.380 0.313 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 2610130 0.297 4120.349 5225 00 0.400 0.260 0.314 0.414 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 258322 0.265 190.344 5200 00 0.400 0.248 0.326 0.350 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 226314 0.222 150.296 4110 10 0.250 0.233 0.297 0.362 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 258514 0.165 1100.260 4112 01 0.250 0.184 0.283 0.332 OK
Connor WongC 11309 0.300 050.382 3110 11 0.333 0.310 0.375 0.483 OK
Andruw MonasterioSS 13379 0.243 170.317 4100 02 0.250 0.253 0.331 0.446 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3710 77 56 0.270

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 2710634 0.321 1110.430 4000 02 0.000 0.319 0.441 0.472 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 2711523 0.200 8160.273 3000 01 0.000 0.185 0.251 0.407 OK
Adley RutschmanDH 134716 0.340 3110.404 4100 00 0.250 0.325 0.372 0.650 OK
Pete Alonso1B 2710321 0.204 3100.311 3110 10 0.333 0.202 0.296 0.340 OK
Tyler O'NeillRF 11338 0.242 140.342 4100 02 0.250 0.226 0.273 0.323 OK
Samuel BasalloC 196915 0.217 470.308 4000 00 0.000 0.255 0.352 0.493 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 248624 0.279 5190.300 4210 01 0.500 0.252 0.280 0.433 OK
Dylan BeaversCF 206717 0.254 280.320 4102 00 0.250 0.252 0.322 0.388 OK
Blaze Alexander3B 185610 0.179 010.246 4100 01 0.250 0.150 0.229 0.163 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 22 17 0.206

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Connelly EarlyStarter 524.32.96 1.3588.924 6.02000581 4.2 6 2
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 87.21.25 1.11110.08 1.03221129 1.1 2 1
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 99.02.00 1.11112.012 1.01000115 0.667 2 0
Zack KellyMiddle Reliever 87.64.74 0.9217.16 1.01000015 0.667 1 0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle BradishStarter 524.34.07 1.81110.428 5.06552291 4.2 5 1
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 1211.30.80 0.44210.413 2.02221142 1.2 3 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 1111.41.58 0.70211.815 1.01001326 1.0 2 0
Tyler WellsMiddle Reliever 1214.63.70 1.23310.517 1.01001022 1.2 3 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 7-2

Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers

CHC 17-10 (5.52 RPG / 4.15 RA)
5 - 3
LAD 18-9 (5.67 RPG / 3.41 RA)
CHC WINS Target: CHC 6 - 4 LAD Confidence: 85.0% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
CHC100000020256
LAD000000102037

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs6.6
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff27
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff21
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico HoernerSS 2711034 0.309 4230.381 4100 00 0.250 0.313 0.368 0.498 OK
Alex Bregman3B 2711229 0.259 3100.333 4000 11 0.000 0.270 0.345 0.411 OK
Ian HappLF 259824 0.245 7140.357 4130 11 0.250 0.258 0.378 0.511 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 155518 0.327 480.439 2122 31 0.500 0.352 0.449 0.638 OK
Carson KellyC 206621 0.318 290.423 5203 00 0.400 0.324 0.427 0.512 OK
Michael Busch1B 2610121 0.208 2110.283 5000 03 0.000 0.231 0.289 0.347 OK
Dansby SwansonDH 279018 0.200 6210.336 4000 12 0.000 0.223 0.342 0.489 OK
Matt Shaw2B 236018 0.300 290.338 4100 01 0.250 0.360 0.411 0.579 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 2710224 0.235 170.291 4000 01 0.000 0.247 0.304 0.329 OK
TEAM TOTALS 366 55 610 0.167

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 2610024 0.240 5110.371 5000 01 0.000 0.230 0.346 0.377 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 2510028 0.280 3150.345 4000 12 0.000 0.294 0.365 0.455 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 248922 0.247 4150.299 5000 02 0.000 0.211 0.267 0.361 OK
Andy PagesCF 279833 0.337 5240.383 5110 03 0.200 0.293 0.346 0.445 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 2610224 0.235 3130.319 4100 00 0.250 0.234 0.298 0.394 OK
Miguel Rojas2B 133814 0.368 130.375 3000 01 0.000 0.395 0.440 0.547 OK
Dalton RushingC 113514 0.400 7150.475 3111 10 0.333 0.398 0.463 1.071 OK
Santiago Espinal3B 8205 0.250 020.250 4210 01 0.500 0.257 0.257 0.359 OK
Hyeseong KimSS 154215 0.357 170.429 4202 00 0.500 0.370 0.430 0.498 OK
TEAM TOTALS 377 33 210 0.189

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shota ImanagaStarter 529.02.17 0.7249.932 5.01000467 5.2 5 4
Ben BrownMiddle Reliever 818.32.46 1.1489.820 2.03110128 3.0 3 1
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 127.85.77 2.69212.711 1.01001124 1.0 2 1
Riley MartinMiddle Reliever 88.12.22 0.86411.110 1.02221127 1.0 2 0
Corbin MartinMiddle Reliever 44.00.00 0.5004.52 1.00000319 1.0 3 0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Justin WrobleskiStarter 424.01.88 0.8753.49 6.021146116 4.2 5 4
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 1310.42.60 0.7697.89 2.02222139 1.1 0 0
Jack DreyerMiddle Reliever 119.64.69 1.25012.213 2.02220331 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 10)

Cleveland Guardians @ Toronto Blue Jays

CLE 15-13 (4.14 RPG / 4.36 RA)
5 - 2
TOR 11-15 (4.08 RPG / 5.04 RA)
CLE WINS Target: CLE 5 - 4 TOR Confidence: 61.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CLE40000001056
TOR000001100210

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 259722 0.227 180.315 5110 02 0.200 0.205 0.299 0.253 OK
Angel MartínezLF 237822 0.282 5140.325 4110 01 0.250 0.260 0.286 0.535 OK
José RamírezDH 2810224 0.235 6120.361 4101 00 0.250 0.250 0.393 0.525 OK
Rhys Hoskins1B 216514 0.215 160.346 3110 11 0.333 0.209 0.348 0.323 OK
David FryRF 14328 0.250 110.351 4111 00 0.250 0.240 0.365 0.367 OK
Daniel Schneemann3B 216220 0.323 3120.408 3010 11 0.000 0.349 0.453 0.644 OK
Juan Brito2B 14478 0.170 030.250 4103 01 0.250 0.138 0.207 0.214 OK
Austin HedgesC 9308 0.267 020.303 2000 20 0.000 0.267 0.312 0.333 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 278624 0.279 3160.367 4000 00 0.000 0.323 0.383 0.462 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 55 46 0.182

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ernie ClementSS 2610835 0.324 070.330 5101 01 0.200 0.337 0.341 0.471 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 238421 0.250 380.315 4100 01 0.250 0.269 0.315 0.405 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.DH 269631 0.323 2130.414 4000 01 0.000 0.320 0.395 0.431 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 257620 0.263 3120.318 4210 01 0.500 0.245 0.299 0.384 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 259322 0.237 5110.324 4100 01 0.250 0.245 0.341 0.469 OK
Lenyn Sosa1B 8226 0.273 040.261 4101 01 0.250 0.268 0.264 0.363 OK
Davis Schneider2B 16406 0.150 150.292 4100 00 0.250 0.125 0.294 0.232 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 11315 0.161 120.188 4200 00 0.500 0.148 0.179 0.259 OK
Andrés Giménez2B 269427 0.287 3160.313 4110 00 0.250 0.295 0.310 0.459 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3710 22 06 0.270

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Slade CecconiStarter 524.26.32 1.6127.420 6.08110393 6.2 3 5
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 1313.04.15 1.46210.415 2.02110334 1.2 3 1
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever 93.80.00 2.6327.13 1.00000010 0.667 0 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Patrick CorbinStarter 314.23.80 1.1277.612 6.04442495 5.2 4 1
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 129.58.53 2.31622.724 1.0000009 1.1 3 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 1312.40.73 0.9684.46 1.02111126 1.1 2 0
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever 137.25.00 1.52818.815 1.00001119 1.2 2 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-2

Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets

COL 11-16 (4.15 RPG / 4.74 RA)
3 - 1
NYM 9-17 (3.5 RPG / 4.46 RA)
COL WINS Target: COL 4 - 3 NYM Confidence: 82.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
COL00021000039
NYM00100000017

COL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs2.9
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-22
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Edouard Julien2B 216618 0.273 1100.351 5000 01 0.000 0.246 0.339 0.345 OK
Mickey MoniakRF 207323 0.315 8150.338 4111 11 0.250 0.333 0.359 0.715 OK
TJ RumfieldDH 279425 0.266 3160.333 5100 00 0.200 0.244 0.307 0.403 OK
Troy Johnston1B 238226 0.317 2140.356 5000 02 0.000 0.327 0.380 0.449 OK
Kyle Karros3B 277415 0.203 130.341 2000 20 0.000 0.196 0.352 0.315 OK
Brett SullivanC 12379 0.243 040.243 4110 01 0.250 0.222 0.222 0.333 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 269721 0.216 160.255 4210 01 0.500 0.182 0.215 0.262 OK
Jake McCarthyCF 175012 0.240 050.296 3201 10 0.667 0.280 0.342 0.440 OK
Jordan BeckLF 18508 0.160 170.204 4201 00 0.500 0.187 0.226 0.307 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 33 46 0.250

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Bo BichetteSS 2610926 0.239 1120.270 4000 00 0.000 0.241 0.259 0.314 OK
Juan SotoDH 114113 0.317 150.404 4100 01 0.250 0.297 0.381 0.432 OK
Luis Robert Jr.CF 238219 0.232 280.330 4000 03 0.000 0.201 0.268 0.297 OK
Mark Vientos1B 216616 0.242 270.282 4100 00 0.250 0.225 0.269 0.338 OK
Marcus Semien2B 269221 0.228 180.287 4200 01 0.500 0.255 0.313 0.342 OK
Brett Baty3B 227518 0.240 1120.244 4200 00 0.500 0.237 0.279 0.369 OK
Tyrone TaylorRF 15368 0.222 160.243 4000 01 0.000 0.227 0.251 0.307 OK
Tommy PhamLF 5110 0.000 000.000 3110 01 0.333 0.333 0.083 0.333
Luis TorrensC 9256 0.240 040.240 2001 01 0.000 0.240 0.240 0.320 OK
TEAM TOTALS 337 11 08 0.212

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jose QuintanaStarter 312.36.59 1.9512.94 5.05110682 5.2 3 3
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 1010.27.94 2.2557.18 2.01000123 1.1 3 0
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 815.90.57 0.75510.218 1.00000111 3.0 5 2
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 138.21.10 1.46311.010 1.01000012 1.2 2 1

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nolan McLeanStarter 529.42.76 0.78211.638 5.06333399 5.0 9 4
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 86.38.57 2.54018.613 2.03000133 0.667 2 1
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 108.66.28 1.2797.37 1.00001117 1.2 2 0
Craig KimbrelMiddle Reliever 53.47.94 2.05910.64 1.00000111 1.1 1 1

Game Summary

COL wins 3-1

Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds

DET 14-14 (4.43 RPG / 4.25 RA)
2 - 3
CIN 18-9 (4.26 RPG / 4.04 RA)
CIN WINS Target: DET 4 - 5 CIN Confidence: 79.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
DET02000000025
CIN20010000x38

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed5.7
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff21
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigleSS 2710234 0.333 2120.424 4100 01 0.250 0.346 0.423 0.567 OK
Gleyber Torres2B 269522 0.232 170.373 4000 01 0.000 0.253 0.396 0.296 OK
Colt Keith3B 257926 0.329 060.361 4000 02 0.000 0.322 0.352 0.380 OK
Riley GreeneDH 289830 0.306 3170.409 3000 10 0.000 0.371 0.475 0.600 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 278518 0.212 4110.343 3110 10 0.333 0.221 0.325 0.499 OK
Kerry CarpenterLF 257116 0.225 6150.321 4000 00 0.000 0.236 0.321 0.542 OK
Matt VierlingCF 175111 0.216 180.268 4212 02 0.500 0.228 0.288 0.380 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 13394 0.103 110.146 3100 01 0.333 0.116 0.154 0.203 OK
Jake RogersC 8233 0.130 040.185 3000 00 0.000 0.130 0.167 0.217 OK
TEAM TOTALS 325 22 27 0.156

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
TJ FriedlCF 249217 0.185 150.279 4210 00 0.500 0.200 0.265 0.306 OK
Matt McLain2B 259820 0.204 280.328 4100 00 0.250 0.200 0.330 0.356 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 2710930 0.275 9200.352 3112 10 0.333 0.270 0.348 0.579 OK
Sal Stewart1B 279930 0.303 9290.398 4210 00 0.500 0.299 0.381 0.620 OK
Nathaniel LoweDH 143910 0.256 390.341 3000 10 0.000 0.254 0.349 0.594 OK
Spencer SteerRF 258419 0.226 460.305 4000 00 0.000 0.256 0.336 0.444 OK
JJ BledayLF 000 0.000 000.000 4101 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333
Jose TrevinoC 3111 0.091 000.167 3000 01 0.000 0.091 0.167 0.091 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 21667 0.106 110.181 3100 00 0.333 0.120 0.197 0.211 OK
TEAM TOTALS 328 33 23 0.250

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Keider MonteroStarter 421.33.80 0.9397.618 4.05331167 5.1 4 1
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 96.44.22 1.56212.79 3.02000239 1.2 2 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 1211.50.78 1.3047.09 1.01001022 0.667 0 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Rhett LowderStarter 528.33.18 1.1665.718 6.03221588 6.2 3 2
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 1212.14.46 1.2407.410 2.02000129 0.667 2 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 1310.00.90 1.20012.614 1.00001120 1.2 3 1

Game Summary

CIN wins 3-2

Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals

LAA 12-16 (4.64 RPG / 4.79 RA)
2 - 7
KC 10-17 (3.93 RPG / 4.7 RA)
KC WINS Target: LAA 4 - 5 KC Confidence: 66.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAA01100000027
KC07000000x79

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

KC Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-9
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 2811025 0.227 5120.346 4000 00 0.000 0.223 0.338 0.370 OK
Mike TroutCF 279422 0.234 8180.419 4111 00 0.250 0.244 0.443 0.551 OK
Yoán Moncada3B 237013 0.186 390.337 3100 10 0.333 0.204 0.345 0.389 OK
Jorge SolerDH 248519 0.224 5190.333 4000 01 0.000 0.214 0.327 0.405 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 259922 0.222 3180.288 4200 01 0.500 0.228 0.283 0.359 OK
Jo AdellRF 2811330 0.265 4170.306 4110 01 0.250 0.229 0.269 0.374 OK
Josh LoweLF 226510 0.154 390.222 4100 02 0.250 0.165 0.219 0.304 OK
Travis d'ArnaudC 6162 0.125 000.263 4101 00 0.250 0.125 0.176 0.188 OK
Adam Frazier2B 174010 0.250 140.362 3000 01 0.000 0.190 0.190 0.429 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 22 16 0.206

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Lane ThomasCF 18479 0.191 020.333 3101 01 0.333 0.208 0.359 0.222 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 2710430 0.288 0100.367 4000 01 0.000 0.300 0.371 0.410 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 269715 0.155 3130.261 4112 01 0.250 0.156 0.272 0.363 OK
Salvador PerezDH 2610219 0.186 480.222 4110 01 0.250 0.205 0.226 0.358 OK
Starling MarteRF 9276 0.222 010.250 3110 11 0.333 0.222 0.240 0.296 OK
Carter JensenC 247822 0.282 6160.360 4113 01 0.250 0.303 0.387 0.534 OK
Nick Loftin3B 7216 0.286 070.375 4110 00 0.250 0.286 0.400 0.381 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 206514 0.215 160.329 3110 01 0.333 0.226 0.327 0.263 OK
Michael Massey2B 144211 0.262 160.273 3211 00 0.667 0.273 0.289 0.478 OK
TEAM TOTALS 329 77 17 0.281

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Reid DetmersStarter 527.54.25 1.12710.131 5.087715100 4.0 1 1
Jordan RomanoMiddle Reliever 106.68.18 1.81816.412 2.00000119 1.0 1 1
Drew PomeranzMiddle Reliever 109.37.74 1.7206.87 1.01000116 0.667 2 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Seth LugoStarter 530.41.18 0.9548.328 5.05220480 5.2 7 4
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 119.45.74 1.8096.77 2.01000027 0.667 2 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 109.24.89 1.3049.810 1.00001118 1.0 2 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever 117.65.92 1.9745.95 1.01000115 0.667 2 0

Game Summary

KC wins 7-2

Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants

MIA 13-14 (4.56 RPG / 4.44 RA)
1 - 4
SF 12-15 (3.37 RPG / 4.11 RA)
SF WINS Target: MIA 4 - 5 SF Confidence: 67.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIA00000100016
SF01000003x412

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SF Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jakob MarseeCF 2710319 0.184 180.303 4000 12 0.000 0.208 0.327 0.304 OK
Kyle Stowers1B 5186 0.333 000.455 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.429 0.500 OK
Otto LopezSS 2610133 0.327 3120.373 4210 01 0.500 0.333 0.372 0.498 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 2710236 0.353 190.431 3100 10 0.333 0.349 0.441 0.457 OK
Liam HicksC 268326 0.313 5240.355 4101 00 0.250 0.310 0.350 0.529 OK
Owen CaissieRF 247517 0.227 2140.268 3000 11 0.000 0.203 0.244 0.325 OK
Connor NorbyDH 248019 0.238 3100.340 4000 00 0.000 0.237 0.321 0.416 OK
Graham Pauley3B 205712 0.211 060.250 4000 02 0.000 0.222 0.274 0.314 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 206110 0.164 090.261 3100 11 0.333 0.181 0.290 0.201 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 11 47 0.182

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jung Hoo LeeRF 279427 0.287 2100.337 5300 00 0.600 0.339 0.387 0.495 OK
Matt Chapman3B 2710530 0.286 1120.342 5100 01 0.200 0.295 0.354 0.372 OK
Luis Arraez2B 2610233 0.324 080.355 4100 00 0.250 0.318 0.349 0.363 OK
Casey SchmittDH 217823 0.295 3100.341 4000 01 0.000 0.267 0.302 0.488 OK
Rafael Devers1B 2710823 0.213 290.248 4210 00 0.500 0.213 0.234 0.283 OK
Heliot RamosLF 269426 0.277 3140.320 3121 11 0.333 0.316 0.370 0.555 OK
Drew GilbertCF 10307 0.233 240.281 4212 00 0.500 0.233 0.281 0.433 OK
Christian KossSS 481 0.125 000.125 4100 01 0.250 0.125 0.125 0.250 OK
Patrick BaileyC 216410 0.156 150.229 3101 12 0.333 0.160 0.234 0.229 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3612 44 26 0.333

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max MeyerStarter 524.34.07 1.27610.428 6.071105104 4.2 6 2
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 98.27.68 1.09814.313 2.05332151 0.667 1 0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Landen RouppStarter 527.22.32 1.02910.331 5.03002395 4.2 5 2
Ryan WalkerMiddle Reliever 1210.63.40 1.50910.212 2.02110231 0.667 2 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 107.64.74 1.84217.815 1.01001123 1.0 2 0
Matt GageMiddle Reliever 128.92.02 1.3487.17 1.00001119 1.2 0 1

Game Summary

SF wins 4-1

Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays

MIN 12-15 (4.81 RPG / 4.74 RA)
4 - 8
TB 15-11 (4.92 RPG / 5.04 RA)
TB WINS Target: MIN 4 - 5 TB Confidence: 88.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIN00000202049
TB30023000x812

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brooks LeeSS 248421 0.250 4130.308 4210 10 0.500 0.255 0.318 0.429 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 185113 0.255 170.397 4111 10 0.250 0.253 0.409 0.374 OK
Josh BellDH 269022 0.244 3160.343 3001 00 0.000 0.229 0.310 0.332 OK
Ryan JeffersC 186417 0.266 3160.382 4112 02 0.250 0.253 0.390 0.481 OK
Kody Clemens1B 17539 0.170 230.267 4100 01 0.250 0.177 0.263 0.330 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 2610221 0.206 1120.255 4200 00 0.500 0.202 0.238 0.256 OK
Matt WallnerRF 248616 0.186 370.278 4000 03 0.000 0.165 0.261 0.242 OK
Royce Lewis3B 165211 0.212 3100.328 4000 01 0.000 0.212 0.337 0.375 OK
James OutmanCF 9222 0.091 000.130 4210 01 0.500 0.105 0.181 0.158 OK
TEAM TOTALS 359 44 28 0.257

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 2610231 0.304 060.339 4110 10 0.250 0.247 0.291 0.271 OK
Junior Caminero3B 2610428 0.269 8150.347 4212 10 0.500 0.289 0.348 0.617 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 269321 0.226 6210.353 4223 10 0.500 0.229 0.382 0.504 OK
Yandy DíazDH 2610134 0.337 3180.422 5210 00 0.400 0.318 0.396 0.422 OK
Jake FraleyRF 185012 0.240 240.309 4010 11 0.000 0.247 0.310 0.468 OK
Ben Williamson2B 226918 0.261 090.329 5302 00 0.600 0.281 0.363 0.415 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 238312 0.145 280.209 3000 11 0.000 0.155 0.220 0.296 OK
Taylor WallsSS 155010 0.200 040.259 4211 01 0.500 0.189 0.250 0.201 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 12276 0.222 030.323 3010 11 0.000 0.217 0.333 0.217 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3612 88 64 0.333

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Simeon Woods RichardsonStarter 525.26.07 1.5874.613 5.075554131 4.0 4 4
Cole SandsMiddle Reliever 109.43.83 1.3839.610 2.04331040 1.0 3 0
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 106.85.29 2.0599.37 1.01000017 0.667 1 0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Griffin JaxMiddle Reliever 106.96.52 1.88413.010 6.03222798 1.1 2 0
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 109.13.96 1.0999.910 2.05220142 0.667 2 1
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 1110.75.05 0.9359.311 1.01000018 0.667 2 0

Game Summary

TB wins 8-4

New York Yankees @ Houston Astros

NYY 18-9 (5.26 RPG / 3.41 RA)
4 - 3
HOU 10-18 (5.14 RPG / 6.07 RA)
NYY WINS Target: NYY 8 - 3 HOU Confidence: 87.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYY10120000047
HOU00003000038

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs6.5
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff34
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed5.7
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 257713 0.169 4160.330 4122 13 0.250 0.170 0.324 0.370 OK
Ben RiceDH 258328 0.337 9200.462 4200 11 0.500 0.325 0.430 0.767 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 279622 0.229 9170.373 4112 00 0.250 0.225 0.402 0.538 OK
Cody BellingerLF 269224 0.261 3140.375 3200 20 0.667 0.278 0.406 0.466 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 269319 0.204 290.295 4000 00 0.000 0.223 0.337 0.369 OK
Paul Goldschmidt1B 8243 0.125 130.250 2000 20 0.000 0.125 0.250 0.333 OK
J.C. EscarraC 8245 0.208 040.240 4000 00 0.000 0.208 0.240 0.333 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 235810 0.172 260.284 4000 01 0.000 0.204 0.309 0.359 OK
José CaballeroSS 269326 0.280 3110.316 4110 00 0.250 0.341 0.374 0.518 OK
TEAM TOTALS 337 44 65 0.212

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CorreaSS 259427 0.287 2140.370 5201 01 0.400 0.287 0.384 0.450 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 2810236 0.353 11260.464 4201 10 0.500 0.374 0.456 0.786 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 238218 0.220 2110.319 5000 00 0.000 0.212 0.304 0.353 OK
Christian Walker1B 289927 0.273 6190.360 4000 00 0.000 0.244 0.336 0.475 OK
Cam SmithRF 289521 0.221 3120.309 4000 02 0.000 0.171 0.274 0.273 OK
Dustin HarrisLF 490 0.000 000.250 2010 21 0.000 0.143 0.333 0.190
Christian VázquezC 134114 0.341 2100.413 4110 02 0.250 0.353 0.421 0.559 OK
Daniel JohnsonCF 251 0.200 000.200 4211 00 0.500 0.200 0.333 0.200 OK
Braden Shewmake2B 121 0.500 110.500 3100 10 0.333 0.246 0.309 0.399 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 33 46 0.229

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis GilStarter 315.14.17 1.1925.49 6.073322112 4.2 5 3
David BednarMiddle Reliever 1110.23.53 1.66711.513 1.00000319 1.1 3 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 124.87.50 3.12528.115 1.00001019 1.1 3 0
Camilo DovalMiddle Reliever 117.78.18 1.42910.59 1.01001123 1.1 3 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer ArrighettiStarter 211.02.45 1.45510.613 5.044454111 4.0 4 3
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 98.44.29 1.3108.68 3.03000035 1.1 1 1
Kai-Wei TengMiddle Reliever 1114.12.55 1.06410.216 1.00001118 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-3

Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers

OAK 14-13 (4.33 RPG / 4.67 RA)
4 - 8
TEX 14-13 (4.15 RPG / 3.81 RA)
TEX WINS Target: OAK 5 - 6 TEX Confidence: 55.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
OAK00001300046
TEX40210010x810

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff-1
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Kurtz1B 269122 0.242 5120.425 4210 01 0.500 0.267 0.451 0.530 OK
Shea LangeliersC 2610732 0.299 8140.359 3010 11 0.000 0.300 0.365 0.560 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 2710422 0.212 3180.291 3000 11 0.000 0.217 0.293 0.422 OK
Brent RookerDH 12416 0.146 280.245 4111 03 0.250 0.156 0.289 0.344 OK
Carlos CortesRF 215720 0.351 4110.413 4101 01 0.250 0.368 0.419 0.693 OK
Jacob WilsonSS 2611131 0.279 2140.283 4101 00 0.250 0.304 0.306 0.451 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 258023 0.288 160.356 4000 01 0.000 0.287 0.367 0.416 OK
Lawrence ButlerCF 258215 0.183 290.264 4111 00 0.250 0.185 0.269 0.256 OK
Darell Hernaiz3B 11246 0.250 120.357 3000 11 0.000 0.260 0.373 0.397 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 44 39 0.182

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoRF 2710931 0.284 4120.358 4110 01 0.250 0.251 0.330 0.426 OK
Joc PedersonDH 255914 0.237 140.361 3110 11 0.333 0.251 0.390 0.300 OK
Corey SeagerSS 269522 0.232 6170.330 4332 00 0.750 0.247 0.335 0.483 OK
Josh Jung3B 248726 0.299 4140.354 4111 01 0.250 0.327 0.378 0.661 OK
Evan CarterCF 268017 0.212 390.319 3010 11 0.000 0.215 0.330 0.362 OK
Jake Burger1B 2710824 0.222 5190.248 4114 01 0.250 0.205 0.229 0.341 OK
Josh Smith2B 247515 0.200 060.307 4101 01 0.250 0.213 0.334 0.258 OK
Danny JansenC 185913 0.220 160.292 4100 01 0.250 0.212 0.293 0.310 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 241 0.250 000.500 4100 01 0.250 0.246 0.309 0.399 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3410 88 28 0.294

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
J.T. GinnStarter 620.53.95 1.1227.517 4.08661387 4.0 4 2
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 86.52.77 1.2314.23 3.02221450 1.0 0 0
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 1511.63.10 1.89711.615 1.00000115 1.1 2 1

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kumar RockerStarter 420.23.56 1.3378.519 5.02111478 4.2 5 1
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1213.12.06 0.8404.16 2.04331347 1.0 2 1
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 1310.65.09 1.41511.914 1.00001224 0.667 2 0
Jalen BeeksMiddle Reliever 1310.61.70 1.13210.212 1.00000010 1.2 2 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 8-4

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

PHI 9-18 (3.7 RPG / 5.56 RA)
0 - 7
ATL 19-9 (5.71 RPG / 3.54 RA)
ATL WINS Target: PHI 1 - 7 ATL Confidence: 90.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PHI00000000002
ATL00400030x711

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.100
Avg Runs3.0
Avg Allowed6.4
Run Diff-34
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.0
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff20
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 2710925 0.229 390.306 4000 02 0.000 0.211 0.314 0.362 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 279919 0.192 8150.339 4000 01 0.000 0.165 0.292 0.437 OK
Bryce Harper1B 2710027 0.270 6180.357 4000 00 0.000 0.278 0.357 0.544 OK
Felix ReyesLF 4153 0.200 110.200 3100 12 0.333 0.200 0.200 0.400 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 279623 0.240 370.315 3000 12 0.000 0.258 0.332 0.420 OK
Alec Bohm3B 269414 0.149 1110.226 2000 20 0.000 0.147 0.220 0.190 OK
Edmundo Sosa2B 133610 0.278 170.297 3100 01 0.333 0.294 0.327 0.479 OK
Dylan MooreCF 790 0.000 000.100 3000 00 0.000 0.333 0.172 0.333
Rafael MarchánC 11394 0.103 120.125 3000 00 0.000 0.094 0.094 0.094 OK
TEAM TOTALS 292 00 48 0.069

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 2810624 0.226 280.344 5322 00 0.600 0.222 0.343 0.339 OK
Drake BaldwinC 2811635 0.302 7240.377 4110 11 0.250 0.295 0.376 0.491 OK
Matt Olson1B 2811133 0.297 7220.378 3121 11 0.333 0.298 0.383 0.597 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 2811035 0.318 5160.358 4100 00 0.250 0.337 0.373 0.544 OK
Michael Harris IIDH 259030 0.333 6200.358 4203 01 0.500 0.400 0.431 0.734 OK
Austin Riley3B 2810623 0.217 3170.308 3101 11 0.333 0.220 0.297 0.425 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 269526 0.274 2140.324 4000 01 0.000 0.231 0.278 0.324 OK
Eli WhiteCF 14326 0.188 140.206 4000 00 0.000 0.197 0.209 0.337 OK
Jorge MateoSS 11247 0.292 130.346 4220 01 0.500 0.279 0.331 0.408 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3511 77 36 0.314

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron NolaStarter 526.25.15 1.48910.029 6.0107734135 5.1 5 2
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 1210.54.29 1.1438.610 1.00000011 1.0 2 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 137.89.23 2.43612.711 1.01000216 1.0 2 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris SaleStarter 529.02.79 1.0009.029 6.00002791 4.1 7 3
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 1211.20.80 0.9829.612 2.02000132 1.2 3 0
Joel PayampsMiddle Reliever 95.48.33 1.66711.77 1.00002027 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 7-0

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

PIT 16-11 (5.0 RPG / 3.93 RA)
6 - 1
MIL 13-13 (4.88 RPG / 4.35 RA)
PIT WINS Target: PIT 3 - 2 MIL Confidence: 67.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PIT40200000066
MIL00000010014

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake MangumLF 185515 0.273 020.333 3110 20 0.333 0.295 0.357 0.331 OK
Nick Gonzales2B 238626 0.302 0130.333 4010 10 0.000 0.333 0.356 0.354 OK
Bryan ReynoldsRF 279724 0.247 3170.383 4010 01 0.000 0.211 0.379 0.304 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 218514 0.165 280.228 4210 02 0.500 0.194 0.252 0.324 OK
Ryan O'Hearn1B 248829 0.330 4160.413 3112 10 0.333 0.335 0.418 0.494 OK
Nick Yorke3B 176114 0.230 140.304 4214 00 0.500 0.204 0.279 0.308 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 207417 0.230 1120.284 3000 11 0.000 0.246 0.286 0.357 OK
Joey BartC 12356 0.171 120.237 4000 02 0.000 0.174 0.208 0.348 OK
Billy CookCF 483 0.375 000.375 4000 02 0.000 0.600 0.600 0.600 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 66 58 0.182

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brice Turang2B 248924 0.270 4180.405 4000 01 0.000 0.240 0.385 0.412 OK
William ContrerasC 249525 0.263 2140.340 3000 10 0.000 0.248 0.301 0.344 OK
Jake Bauers1B 248421 0.250 5150.308 3000 11 0.000 0.255 0.311 0.419 OK
Gary SánchezDH 185513 0.236 5130.391 4100 01 0.250 0.233 0.378 0.555 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 226516 0.246 1190.388 4110 02 0.250 0.227 0.389 0.381 OK
Sal FrelickRF 237816 0.205 150.303 3000 11 0.000 0.214 0.311 0.256 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 227212 0.167 050.238 3000 10 0.000 0.184 0.257 0.263 OK
David HamiltonSS 216114 0.230 040.356 4000 00 0.000 0.241 0.335 0.241 OK
Brandon LockridgeLF 216517 0.262 060.333 3201 00 0.667 0.251 0.326 0.302 OK
TEAM TOTALS 314 11 46 0.129

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Carmen MlodzinskiStarter 523.53.45 1.48910.026 6.01003497 5.0 3 1
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 1313.00.69 0.8466.910 1.02111024 1.0 0 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 1413.22.05 0.83313.620 1.01000219 1.1 2 0
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever 1215.82.28 1.26610.819 1.0000009 1.1 3 0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle HarrisonStarter 417.23.14 1.3379.418 6.044435101 4.0 2 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 128.75.17 1.37911.411 1.01222233 0.667 2 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 1415.03.00 1.60016.828 1.0000009 2.1 3 1
Grant AndersonMiddle Reliever 1411.93.03 1.1768.311 1.01000114 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 6-1

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

SD 18-8 (4.46 RPG / 3.81 RA)
4 - 3
ARI 14-12 (4.62 RPG / 5.0 RA)
SD WINS Target: SD 5 - 4 ARI Confidence: 75.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SD10100011048
ARI00012000037

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-4
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ramón LaureanoLF 249424 0.255 4180.314 4110 12 0.250 0.248 0.304 0.452 OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 259624 0.250 0110.333 4211 10 0.500 0.256 0.335 0.281 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 259820 0.204 3140.278 4101 01 0.250 0.196 0.264 0.320 OK
Manny Machado3B 258617 0.198 2110.324 4211 00 0.500 0.190 0.282 0.246 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 259326 0.280 4160.362 4000 02 0.000 0.309 0.397 0.470 OK
Gavin Sheets1B 247918 0.228 3110.265 4110 01 0.250 0.224 0.273 0.448 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 175718 0.316 050.350 4101 00 0.250 0.331 0.351 0.451 OK
Luis CampusanoC 133612 0.333 270.385 3000 12 0.000 0.379 0.438 0.759 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 258013 0.162 140.295 4000 01 0.000 0.168 0.305 0.221 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 44 39 0.229

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ildemaro Vargas2B 197426 0.351 5160.368 4001 00 0.000 0.338 0.348 0.653 OK
Ketel MarteDH 2410024 0.240 490.296 5200 00 0.400 0.267 0.330 0.429 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 248324 0.289 3170.400 3000 22 0.000 0.268 0.386 0.516 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 5201 0.050 010.095 5111 00 0.200 0.050 0.095 0.050 OK
Adrian Del CastilloC 124611 0.239 1100.255 3000 10 0.000 0.263 0.282 0.421 OK
Jose FernandezSS 207223 0.319 2110.338 4000 03 0.000 0.314 0.340 0.411 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 248824 0.273 4140.293 4210 01 0.500 0.322 0.346 0.554 OK
Alek ThomasCF 207114 0.197 2100.240 3110 00 0.333 0.229 0.263 0.470 OK
Tim Tawa1B 14365 0.139 020.238 2101 20 0.500 0.129 0.234 0.178 OK
TEAM TOTALS 337 33 56 0.212

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael KingStarter 527.22.32 1.1408.626 6.053324106 6.0 5 2
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 1313.10.00 0.38218.527 1.00001117 0.667 2 1
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 1211.86.86 1.69511.415 1.00001119 0.667 2 0
David MorganMiddle Reliever 910.73.36 2.05611.814 1.02001023 1.0 2 1

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryne NelsonStarter 518.87.66 1.5969.620 5.03221582 4.2 3 1
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 2.03112250 1.0 2 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.01110121 1.2 2 0
Ryan ThompsonMiddle Reliever 22.00.00 0.0004.51 1.01000116 0.667 2 0

Game Summary

SD wins 4-3

Seattle Mariners @ St. Louis Cardinals

SEA 13-15 (4.11 RPG / 3.93 RA)
5 - 4
STL 14-12 (4.73 RPG / 5.27 RA)
SEA WINS Target: SEA 4 - 3 STL Confidence: 61.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SEA01310000058
STL00030001047

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

STL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff6
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 206613 0.197 160.361 4110 11 0.250 0.192 0.322 0.299 OK
Cal RaleighC 2810922 0.202 5140.290 4111 10 0.250 0.241 0.331 0.456 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 2810827 0.250 2100.336 4110 12 0.250 0.280 0.350 0.370 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 2810129 0.287 2110.373 5202 00 0.400 0.288 0.354 0.455 OK
Luke RaleyRF 267521 0.280 5130.341 4111 02 0.250 0.268 0.331 0.563 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 235816 0.276 3120.338 2101 10 0.500 0.308 0.366 0.563 OK
Connor Joe1B 4102 0.200 020.273 3000 01 0.000 0.200 0.273 0.200 OK
Cole Young2B 289825 0.255 3130.342 4000 01 0.000 0.272 0.352 0.401 OK
Leo Rivas3B 226510 0.154 070.273 3110 12 0.333 0.148 0.252 0.189 OK
TEAM TOTALS 338 55 59 0.242

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 269623 0.240 4120.370 4000 00 0.000 0.258 0.372 0.460 OK
Iván HerreraC 269322 0.237 4130.400 4100 00 0.250 0.264 0.390 0.512 OK
Alec Burleson1B 259825 0.255 3170.339 3000 11 0.000 0.253 0.317 0.409 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 259727 0.278 8160.346 4111 00 0.250 0.253 0.314 0.474 OK
Nolan GormanDH 258519 0.224 3150.299 4000 02 0.000 0.231 0.299 0.363 OK
Masyn WinnSS 207922 0.278 1120.348 3210 00 0.667 0.327 0.394 0.483 OK
Nathan ChurchLF 206316 0.254 4110.304 4110 01 0.250 0.299 0.350 0.556 OK
Ramón Urías3B 15478 0.170 250.231 4113 01 0.250 0.149 0.256 0.285 OK
Victor Scott IICF 236513 0.200 040.254 4100 01 0.250 0.163 0.241 0.173 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 44 16 0.206

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emerson HancockStarter 528.22.87 0.8878.928 6.06331496 4.0 5 1
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 1210.36.99 1.55315.718 2.01110024 0.667 2 0
Jose A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 1311.62.33 1.8107.810 1.00000218 0.667 2 0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael McGreevyStarter 526.43.41 0.9475.115 5.064426105 4.2 3 3
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 1413.41.34 0.82110.716 3.02112252 0.667 2 0
Gordon GraceffoMiddle Reliever 1112.71.42 1.0245.78 1.00001123 2.1 2 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-4

Washington Nationals @ Chicago White Sox

WAS 12-16 (5.5 RPG / 6.07 RA)
5 - 6
CHW 11-16 (4.15 RPG / 5.19 RA)
CHW WINS Target: WAS 4 - 5 CHW Confidence: 68.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
WAS02201000058
CHW02000130x611

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.8
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 2810826 0.241 10210.401 4102 10 0.250 0.233 0.412 0.600 OK
Curtis Mead1B 205310 0.189 3100.283 4000 11 0.000 0.163 0.257 0.405 OK
Daylen LileLF 2711132 0.288 3140.358 5000 00 0.000 0.292 0.384 0.508 OK
Brady House3B 259924 0.242 3100.299 5310 02 0.600 0.228 0.284 0.337 OK
CJ AbramsSS 279426 0.277 7200.395 3020 20 0.000 0.213 0.337 0.402 OK
Jacob YoungCF 248721 0.241 2120.283 5100 01 0.200 0.229 0.270 0.298 OK
Luis GarciaDH 000 0.000 000.000 3212 10 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333
Nasim Nuñez2B 248216 0.195 0100.298 1010 30 0.000 0.184 0.301 0.191 OK
Drew MillasC 15447 0.159 020.229 4101 01 0.250 0.167 0.167 0.250 OK
TEAM TOTALS 348 55 85 0.235

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chase Meidroth2B 259425 0.266 130.352 5000 01 0.000 0.307 0.393 0.379 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 269420 0.213 5130.353 3100 20 0.333 0.238 0.375 0.502 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 279523 0.242 11200.381 2100 30 0.500 0.282 0.404 0.666 OK
Everson PereiraDH 155415 0.278 370.344 5100 02 0.200 0.282 0.343 0.522 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 279522 0.232 7190.342 5110 02 0.200 0.261 0.362 0.581 OK
Tanner MurrayLF 11255 0.200 130.250 3120 10 0.333 0.213 0.260 0.341 OK
Derek HillRF 15318 0.258 110.303 4321 01 0.750 0.266 0.355 0.381 OK
Drew RomoC 000 0.000 000.000 4213 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333
Luisangel AcuñaCF 216512 0.185 030.250 4102 00 0.250 0.161 0.244 0.184 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3511 66 66 0.314

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Foster GriffinStarter 526.23.44 1.2217.622 6.095544131 5.1 6 1
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 109.43.83 1.3838.69 1.02112128 1.1 2 0
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 118.74.14 1.83912.412 1.00000111 0.667 2 0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryan HudsonStarter 129.81.84 1.93913.815 5.065583143 4.0 0 0
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 2.01000231 1.2 2 0
Jordan LeasureMiddle Reliever 88.34.34 1.0849.89 1.00000012 1.1 3 0
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever 20.390.00 20.00030.01 1.01000014 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

CHW wins 6-5