MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

April 24, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (14 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
BOS @ BAL2 - 64 - 5BAL wins 5-469%enhanced_ml
CHC @ LAD6 - 42 - 6LAD wins 6-279%enhanced_ml
CLE @ TOR5 - 36 - 0CLE wins 6-063%enhanced_ml
COL @ NYM5 - 46 - 5COL wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10)75%enhanced_ml
DET @ CIN4 - 53 - 6CIN wins 6-363%enhanced_ml
LAA @ KC6 - 36 - 2LAA wins 6-279%enhanced_ml
MIA @ SF3 - 27 - 0MIA wins 7-061%enhanced_ml
MIN @ TB5 - 46 - 3MIN wins 6-373%enhanced_ml
NYY @ HOU7 - 46 - 5NYY wins 6-589%enhanced_ml
OAK @ TEX5 - 62 - 6TEX wins 6-262%enhanced_ml
PHI @ ATL1 - 72 - 6ATL wins 6-291%enhanced_ml
PIT @ MIL5 - 45 - 1PIT wins 5-161%enhanced_ml
SEA @ STL4 - 56 - 7STL wins 7-6 (Extra Innings - 11)65%enhanced_ml
WAS @ CHW3 - 81 - 5CHW wins 5-175%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

BOS 9-16 (3.68 RPG / 4.56 RA)
4 - 5
BAL 12-13 (4.44 RPG / 4.6 RA)
BAL WINS Target: BOS 2 - 6 BAL Confidence: 69.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BOS00001003049
BAL00500000x56

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.0
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff-22
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff-5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jarren DuranLF 207615 0.197 1110.265 5000 02 0.000 0.211 0.259 0.335 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 237419 0.257 170.337 5000 01 0.000 0.225 0.300 0.297 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 154211 0.262 050.392 5210 01 0.400 0.290 0.398 0.370 OK
Willson Contreras1B 248421 0.250 4120.376 3110 10 0.333 0.250 0.334 0.417 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 249126 0.286 3110.343 3000 11 0.000 0.238 0.313 0.337 OK
Trevor StorySS 2510219 0.186 2170.220 3010 11 0.000 0.190 0.242 0.310 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 215912 0.203 140.284 4201 01 0.500 0.215 0.300 0.323 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 237811 0.141 070.230 4212 00 0.500 0.155 0.243 0.241 OK
Carlos NarváezC 165313 0.245 120.273 4201 01 0.500 0.227 0.253 0.341 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 44 38 0.250

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gunnar HendersonSS 2510620 0.189 7150.269 4210 00 0.500 0.159 0.229 0.366 OK
Taylor WardLF 259928 0.283 1110.395 4111 02 0.250 0.240 0.362 0.397 OK
Adley RutschmanC 113812 0.316 150.395 4110 01 0.250 0.294 0.385 0.529 OK
Pete Alonso1B 259420 0.213 3100.327 2100 21 0.500 0.228 0.345 0.423 OK
Dylan BeaversRF 196214 0.226 170.300 3010 12 0.000 0.208 0.296 0.291 OK
Samuel BasalloDH 186411 0.172 360.274 4001 02 0.000 0.181 0.292 0.342 OK
Leody TaverasCF 195217 0.327 2140.426 3113 11 0.333 0.316 0.416 0.500 OK
Coby Mayo3B 186110 0.164 2100.261 3000 01 0.000 0.176 0.253 0.345 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 227823 0.295 5190.317 3000 01 0.000 0.303 0.330 0.571 OK
TEAM TOTALS 306 55 411 0.200

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brayan BelloStarter 417.57.20 2.0576.713 6.055547117 4.2 3 4
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 87.21.25 1.11110.08 1.00000113 0.667 2 1
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 99.02.00 1.11112.012 1.01000321 1.1 3 2

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon YoungStarter 15.00.00 0.8003.62 5.05111382 4.0 4 2
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 1211.30.80 0.44210.413 2.01000233 1.1 2 0
Anthony NunezMiddle Reliever 1111.41.58 0.70211.815 1.03332234 1.2 2 0
Tyler WellsMiddle Reliever 1113.54.00 1.25910.716 1.00000112 2.1 4 1

Game Summary

BAL wins 5-4


Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers

CHC 16-9 (5.56 RPG / 3.84 RA)
2 - 6
LAD 17-8 (5.48 RPG / 3.28 RA)
LAD WINS Target: CHC 6 - 4 LAD Confidence: 79.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CHC10000100026
LAD21012000x610

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs7.3
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff33
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 2510231 0.304 4220.381 4221 00 0.500 0.298 0.356 0.490 OK
Michael Busch1B 249118 0.198 2100.282 3101 11 0.333 0.239 0.314 0.351 OK
Alex Bregman3B 2510427 0.260 290.339 4000 00 0.000 0.286 0.367 0.387 OK
Ian HappLF 239223 0.250 7140.361 4000 01 0.000 0.280 0.387 0.553 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 134715 0.319 370.448 4200 00 0.500 0.332 0.446 0.568 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 215120 0.392 3100.429 3000 11 0.000 0.448 0.491 0.768 OK
Carson KellyC 196321 0.333 290.432 4100 00 0.250 0.355 0.464 0.553 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 259523 0.242 170.294 4000 01 0.000 0.267 0.313 0.362 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 258316 0.193 5170.333 3000 01 0.000 0.210 0.352 0.431 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 22 25 0.182

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 249423 0.245 5110.365 5211 02 0.400 0.220 0.317 0.373 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 239127 0.297 3140.366 3000 10 0.000 0.322 0.401 0.497 OK
Will SmithC 217520 0.267 2110.325 4112 02 0.250 0.250 0.322 0.319 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 249423 0.245 3130.327 4110 00 0.250 0.242 0.312 0.395 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 228220 0.244 4130.292 4100 02 0.250 0.222 0.283 0.436 OK
Max Muncy3B 248525 0.294 890.381 3112 11 0.333 0.321 0.404 0.660 OK
Andy PagesCF 258930 0.337 5210.388 3120 11 0.333 0.275 0.333 0.439 OK
Hyeseong KimSS 133411 0.324 150.415 4101 01 0.250 0.318 0.405 0.473 OK
Alex Freeland2B 206113 0.213 150.279 4200 01 0.500 0.208 0.277 0.257 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3410 66 310 0.294

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jameson TaillonStarter 422.24.05 1.3068.521 5.0106616111 4.2 5 2
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 106.82.65 1.32414.611 2.00002439 0.667 0 0
Ben BrownMiddle Reliever 818.32.46 1.1489.820 1.00000012 3.0 4 2

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emmet SheehanStarter 419.36.06 1.4518.418 5.03110160 4.2 4 3
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 1210.20.88 0.5887.99 2.01112248 0.667 2 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 108.20.00 0.61011.010 1.00000114 0.667 2 0
Jack DreyerMiddle Reliever 109.44.79 1.17010.511 1.02000124 1.1 3 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-2


Cleveland Guardians @ Toronto Blue Jays

CLE 14-12 (4.04 RPG / 4.27 RA)
6 - 0
TOR 10-14 (3.96 RPG / 5.0 RA)
CLE WINS Target: CLE 5 - 3 TOR Confidence: 63.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CLE50100000067
TOR00000000006

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Daniel Schneemann2B 205818 0.310 2110.394 5210 00 0.400 0.360 0.457 0.590 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 228119 0.235 5150.323 3010 10 0.000 0.216 0.325 0.433 OK
José Ramírez3B 269422 0.234 6120.363 4110 01 0.250 0.274 0.418 0.590 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 227214 0.194 150.284 3110 11 0.333 0.236 0.310 0.312 OK
Rhys HoskinsDH 195712 0.211 160.348 4000 03 0.000 0.193 0.331 0.317 OK
George ValeraLF 8266 0.231 040.259 2112 10 0.500 0.231 0.259 0.308 OK
Angel MartínezCF 217019 0.271 3100.320 4214 01 0.500 0.238 0.267 0.437 OK
Bo NaylorC 17547 0.130 130.190 4000 01 0.000 0.126 0.197 0.229 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 257821 0.269 3150.367 4000 01 0.000 0.310 0.382 0.494 OK
TEAM TOTALS 337 66 38 0.212

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nathan LukesRF 185112 0.235 080.273 4100 01 0.250 0.266 0.289 0.339 OK
Ernie Clement2B 2410032 0.320 060.327 4200 00 0.500 0.337 0.341 0.452 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 248930 0.337 2120.427 3100 12 0.333 0.346 0.424 0.471 OK
Jesús SánchezLF 237119 0.268 2110.325 4000 01 0.000 0.264 0.324 0.340 OK
Lenyn SosaDH 7185 0.278 040.263 4000 02 0.000 0.271 0.267 0.387 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 217620 0.263 370.333 4100 02 0.250 0.295 0.344 0.513 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 238718 0.207 380.289 3000 01 0.000 0.200 0.287 0.319 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 248623 0.267 3120.297 4000 00 0.000 0.272 0.289 0.454 OK
Tyler HeinemanC 13327 0.219 020.265 3100 01 0.333 0.160 0.160 0.160 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 00 110 0.182

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gavin WilliamsStarter 529.22.16 1.02712.340 6.050016104 5.0 5 4
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 1212.04.50 1.41711.215 1.01000119 1.2 1 1
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 44.04.50 1.00013.56 1.00000217 0.667 2 0
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever 93.80.00 2.6327.13 1.00000115 0.667 2 0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max ScherzerStarter 416.17.27 1.3045.610 5.05663798 5.0 4 2
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 129.58.53 2.31622.724 2.00000121 1.2 2 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 1211.40.79 1.0533.95 1.02000015 1.1 0 0
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever 116.15.90 1.80317.712 1.0000009 1.2 1 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 6-0


Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets

COL 10-16 (4.15 RPG / 4.81 RA)
6 - 5
NYM 9-16 (3.52 RPG / 4.48 RA)
COL WINS Target: COL 5 - 4 NYM Confidence: 75.5% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
COL000030000367
NYM000020001259

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff-11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs2.6
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-22
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Mickey MoniakDH 196822 0.324 8150.347 5214 01 0.400 0.331 0.358 0.734 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 248723 0.264 690.340 5100 01 0.200 0.269 0.334 0.604 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 269124 0.264 3150.320 5101 00 0.200 0.240 0.297 0.401 OK
Tyler Freeman2B 134112 0.293 070.370 4000 01 0.000 0.279 0.343 0.306 OK
Troy JohnstonRF 227725 0.325 2120.366 4000 02 0.000 0.350 0.405 0.482 OK
Kyle Karros3B 267014 0.200 130.337 4210 00 0.500 0.211 0.363 0.333 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 259319 0.204 160.245 3020 10 0.000 0.161 0.208 0.245 OK
Jake McCarthyLF 164711 0.234 040.294 4111 01 0.250 0.272 0.347 0.416 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 247015 0.214 120.276 3010 12 0.000 0.239 0.290 0.301 OK
TEAM TOTALS 377 66 28 0.189

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Bo Bichette3B 2510525 0.238 1120.270 5110 02 0.200 0.231 0.250 0.306 OK
Juan SotoDH 103712 0.324 150.419 5102 02 0.200 0.324 0.419 0.459 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 226616 0.242 470.346 5212 00 0.400 0.225 0.325 0.406 OK
Brett BatyRF 217116 0.225 1100.230 5200 01 0.400 0.210 0.256 0.328 OK
Mark Vientos1B 206214 0.226 270.269 4010 03 0.000 0.187 0.234 0.303 OK
Marcus Semien2B 258821 0.239 180.299 4100 00 0.250 0.264 0.324 0.355 OK
Carson BengeLF 216911 0.159 240.237 4000 02 0.000 0.178 0.245 0.316 OK
Tyrone TaylorCF 14337 0.212 160.235 3211 10 0.667 0.222 0.249 0.324 OK
Ronny MauricioSS 381 0.125 010.125 4010 02 0.000 0.125 0.125 0.125 OK
TEAM TOTALS 399 55 112 0.231

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael LorenzenStarter 620.57.90 2.2447.016 5.05221583 4.0 4 3
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 1010.27.94 2.2557.18 2.01000432 1.1 3 1
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 714.70.61 0.81610.417 1.0000018 3.0 6 1
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 117.22.50 1.80613.811 1.02220221 1.2 3 0
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 138.21.10 1.46311.010 1.01110017 0.667 2 1

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Freddy PeraltaStarter 525.54.24 1.1379.928 5.04331480 5.0 6 4
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 86.38.57 2.54018.613 2.00000122 0.667 2 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 108.66.28 1.2797.37 1.00000113 1.2 2 1
Craig KimbrelMiddle Reliever 53.47.94 2.05910.64 2.03331244 0.667 2 1

Game Summary

COL wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10)


Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds

DET 14-12 (4.38 RPG / 3.88 RA)
3 - 6
CIN 16-9 (3.88 RPG / 3.96 RA)
CIN WINS Target: DET 4 - 5 CIN Confidence: 63.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
DET00002100037
CIN00211002x68

DET Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jahmai JonesRF 13256 0.240 240.240 4000 01 0.000 0.253 0.253 0.548 OK
Gleyber TorresDH 259322 0.237 170.363 3000 10 0.000 0.250 0.367 0.293 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 259430 0.319 1110.407 4100 01 0.250 0.335 0.422 0.536 OK
Matt VierlingCF 154310 0.233 160.277 4110 01 0.250 0.248 0.303 0.397 OK
Dillon DinglerC 227620 0.263 5190.341 4100 00 0.250 0.260 0.322 0.534 OK
Riley GreeneLF 269026 0.289 2160.396 4211 02 0.500 0.320 0.432 0.507 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 257815 0.192 290.330 4000 02 0.000 0.180 0.301 0.339 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 4143 0.214 010.267 4112 01 0.250 0.214 0.267 0.286 OK
Javier BáezSS 206819 0.279 150.306 3100 00 0.333 0.262 0.286 0.356 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 33 18 0.206

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dane MyersCF 15318 0.258 130.378 4101 12 0.250 0.257 0.407 0.378 OK
Matt McLain2B 239018 0.200 040.321 4100 11 0.250 0.189 0.320 0.245 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 2510227 0.265 8180.330 5214 01 0.400 0.261 0.314 0.562 OK
Sal Stewart1B 259127 0.297 8240.389 4000 11 0.000 0.285 0.354 0.603 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 259121 0.231 3110.300 2111 20 0.500 0.230 0.303 0.366 OK
Spencer SteerLF 237717 0.221 460.291 4100 00 0.250 0.239 0.308 0.478 OK
Tyler StephensonC 18579 0.158 250.279 2020 21 0.000 0.161 0.304 0.225 OK
Rece HindsRF 7243 0.125 050.185 3110 00 0.333 0.125 0.160 0.208 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 19595 0.085 110.169 4110 00 0.250 0.080 0.176 0.152 OK
TEAM TOTALS 328 66 76 0.250

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Framber ValdezStarter 530.03.30 1.2006.020 5.043356111 6.1 5 3
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 86.21.45 1.29011.68 2.02110024 1.0 2 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 1110.30.00 1.2624.45 1.02222029 1.1 2 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew AbbottStarter 523.56.13 1.8305.715 6.052217105 5.1 4 4
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 1111.14.86 1.2618.110 2.02110031 1.2 2 1
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 129.01.00 1.33313.013 1.0000018 1.1 2 1

Game Summary

CIN wins 6-3


Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals

LAA 12-14 (4.85 RPG / 4.46 RA)
6 - 2
KC 8-17 (3.52 RPG / 4.92 RA)
LAA WINS Target: LAA 6 - 3 KC Confidence: 78.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAA02040000067
KC000000200210

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff14
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

KC Recent Form

Win%0.100
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed6.4
Run Diff-25
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 2610124 0.238 5110.364 3102 20 0.333 0.229 0.355 0.386 OK
Mike TroutCF 258821 0.239 8170.417 5100 02 0.200 0.257 0.428 0.666 OK
Jo AdellRF 2610428 0.269 3150.312 5000 01 0.000 0.252 0.292 0.395 OK
Jorge SolerDH 227917 0.215 5190.326 4000 01 0.000 0.213 0.317 0.466 OK
Oswald Peraza3B 206820 0.294 480.351 3111 11 0.333 0.331 0.392 0.614 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 239222 0.239 3180.308 4110 02 0.250 0.256 0.324 0.392 OK
Vaughn Grissom2B 7205 0.250 020.400 3122 10 0.333 0.250 0.423 0.250 OK
Logan O'HoppeC 237215 0.208 180.326 4110 01 0.250 0.210 0.314 0.292 OK
Bryce TeodosioLF 9254 0.160 010.192 3111 10 0.333 0.188 0.235 0.188 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 66 58 0.206

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Loftin3B 5134 0.308 030.400 5200 01 0.400 0.308 0.438 0.462 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 259527 0.284 0100.364 5200 01 0.400 0.297 0.382 0.383 OK
Salvador Perez1B 249316 0.172 360.212 5100 02 0.200 0.179 0.203 0.295 OK
Lane ThomasCF 17459 0.200 020.321 4100 11 0.250 0.224 0.345 0.239 OK
Starling MarteRF 8235 0.217 000.250 5100 00 0.200 0.217 0.217 0.304 OK
Carter JensenDH 226919 0.275 6140.354 3100 11 0.333 0.295 0.377 0.551 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 186011 0.183 140.269 3100 10 0.333 0.172 0.244 0.212 OK
Elias DíazC 242 0.500 000.500 3010 11 0.000 0.244 0.307 0.394 OK
Michael Massey2B 12338 0.242 140.257 4112 00 0.250 0.245 0.264 0.458 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3710 22 47 0.270

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Yusei KikuchiStarter 523.35.79 1.67410.427 6.062226122 4.2 4 2
Jordan RomanoMiddle Reliever 96.42.81 1.25016.912 1.01002127 1.1 2 0
Drew PomeranzMiddle Reliever 98.37.59 1.5666.56 1.01000014 0.667 2 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 137.03.86 2.00012.910 1.02000016 3.0 4 3

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Noah CameronStarter 419.35.60 1.5037.917 6.076636130 6.0 4 2
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 108.46.43 1.9055.45 1.00000110 0.667 2 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 98.25.49 1.46311.010 1.00001016 1.1 2 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever 106.66.82 2.1215.54 1.00001118 0.667 2 0

Game Summary

LAA wins 6-2


Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants

MIA 12-13 (4.48 RPG / 4.4 RA)
7 - 0
SF 11-14 (3.24 RPG / 4.0 RA)
MIA WINS Target: MIA 3 - 2 SF Confidence: 61.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIA003112000711
SF00000000005

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-2
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jakob MarseeCF 259517 0.179 170.307 2010 31 0.000 0.205 0.335 0.309 OK
Kyle StowersLF 3103 0.300 000.462 5000 02 0.000 0.300 0.417 0.400 OK
Otto LopezSS 249229 0.315 3110.366 5223 02 0.400 0.309 0.353 0.517 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 259431 0.330 170.411 5200 00 0.400 0.314 0.412 0.411 OK
Liam HicksC 247825 0.321 4210.368 5201 00 0.400 0.337 0.379 0.508 OK
Agustín RamírezDH 248820 0.227 2120.303 4100 00 0.250 0.225 0.287 0.385 OK
Owen CaissieRF 227116 0.225 2140.260 4000 02 0.000 0.192 0.219 0.297 OK
Graham Pauley3B 195410 0.185 050.214 4110 00 0.250 0.180 0.219 0.275 OK
Connor Norby1B 227318 0.247 270.341 4333 00 0.750 0.256 0.320 0.401 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3811 77 37 0.289

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Willy AdamesSS 2510123 0.228 360.271 4000 01 0.000 0.211 0.237 0.370 OK
Luis Arraez2B 249228 0.304 060.340 4200 01 0.500 0.306 0.341 0.338 OK
Matt Chapman3B 259828 0.286 1120.333 4200 01 0.500 0.271 0.314 0.337 OK
Rafael Devers1B 2510023 0.230 290.267 4000 02 0.000 0.236 0.265 0.309 OK
Casey SchmittDH 197120 0.282 280.325 4000 01 0.000 0.267 0.292 0.454 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 258722 0.253 190.302 4100 02 0.250 0.281 0.325 0.365 OK
Heliot RamosLF 248723 0.264 2130.304 3000 02 0.000 0.284 0.331 0.465 OK
Drew GilbertCF 8235 0.217 120.280 3000 01 0.000 0.217 0.280 0.348 OK
Eric HaaseC 000 0.000 000.000 2000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333
TEAM TOTALS 325 00 012 0.156

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sandy AlcantaraStarter 535.13.08 1.0545.923 6.03000698 5.2 4 2
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 98.27.68 1.09814.313 1.01000214 1.0 2 1
Tyler PhillipsMiddle Reliever 714.30.63 1.25911.318 1.01000219 1.2 2 2
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 117.09.00 2.42916.713 1.00000213 1.1 2 0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Adrian HouserStarter 420.55.71 1.6594.811 5.086634102 5.2 4 3
Ryan WalkerMiddle Reliever 119.63.75 1.56211.212 2.03110240 1.1 0 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 96.65.45 1.97017.713 1.00000111 1.1 1 0
Matt GageMiddle Reliever 117.92.28 1.2668.07 1.00000011 0.667 2 1

Game Summary

MIA wins 7-0


Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays

MIN 12-13 (5.08 RPG / 4.64 RA)
6 - 3
TB 13-11 (4.83 RPG / 5.33 RA)
MIN WINS Target: MIN 5 - 4 TB Confidence: 73.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIN10040010069
TB00010020035

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff9
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff-1
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonDH 239622 0.229 570.292 5222 01 0.400 0.251 0.300 0.521 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 174612 0.261 170.414 5100 03 0.200 0.250 0.424 0.381 OK
Austin MartinCF 184917 0.347 160.500 5111 02 0.200 0.370 0.535 0.525 OK
Victor CaratiniC 196416 0.250 1110.350 4200 00 0.500 0.230 0.336 0.308 OK
Kody Clemens1B 16498 0.163 230.268 2110 11 0.500 0.167 0.261 0.334 OK
Royce Lewis3B 14449 0.205 280.340 3001 01 0.000 0.219 0.359 0.281 OK
Matt WallnerRF 227915 0.190 370.281 4112 01 0.250 0.167 0.263 0.251 OK
Brooks LeeSS 227618 0.237 3120.301 4000 00 0.000 0.237 0.305 0.358 OK
Tristan Gray2B 144111 0.268 3130.311 4110 01 0.250 0.254 0.280 0.481 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 66 110 0.250

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 249631 0.323 050.347 4000 01 0.000 0.294 0.315 0.337 OK
Junior Caminero3B 249625 0.260 6120.345 4111 01 0.250 0.280 0.355 0.535 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 248519 0.224 4190.361 4000 02 0.000 0.217 0.391 0.386 OK
Yandy DíazDH 249432 0.340 3180.426 3110 10 0.333 0.327 0.410 0.437 OK
Jonny DeLucaRF 175014 0.280 2130.321 4111 00 0.250 0.280 0.322 0.476 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 217712 0.156 280.205 4100 00 0.250 0.171 0.218 0.316 OK
Ben Williamson2B 206215 0.242 070.309 3101 11 0.333 0.245 0.338 0.328 OK
Nick FortesC 196218 0.290 170.343 3000 00 0.000 0.271 0.312 0.351 OK
Taylor WallsSS 144810 0.208 040.269 3000 01 0.000 0.214 0.274 0.226 OK
TEAM TOTALS 325 33 26 0.156

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Taj BradleyStarter 527.21.65 1.25011.234 6.02111484 5.0 4 4
Cole SandsMiddle Reliever 109.43.83 1.3839.610 2.02221126 1.0 0 0
Anthony BandaMiddle Reliever 117.912.53 2.02511.410 1.01000114 1.0 2 1

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Drew RasmussenStarter 419.22.81 0.6779.420 5.06551596 4.0 4 2
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 98.14.44 1.23510.09 3.03110350 1.0 2 1
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 108.76.21 1.03410.310 1.00000217 0.667 2 0

Game Summary

MIN wins 6-3


New York Yankees @ Houston Astros

NYY 16-9 (4.88 RPG / 3.4 RA)
6 - 5
HOU 10-16 (5.27 RPG / 5.77 RA)
NYY WINS Target: NYY 7 - 4 HOU Confidence: 88.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYY00100230069
HOU13001000059

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff16
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 237212 0.167 3140.310 4100 11 0.250 0.177 0.283 0.394 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 259122 0.242 9170.361 5000 01 0.000 0.256 0.380 0.643 OK
Cody BellingerLF 248523 0.271 3130.373 4110 11 0.250 0.288 0.389 0.478 OK
Ben Rice1B 237423 0.311 8170.457 3110 21 0.333 0.284 0.421 0.693 OK
Giancarlo StantonDH 238722 0.253 3130.301 5214 01 0.400 0.225 0.263 0.434 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 248516 0.188 140.274 4100 02 0.250 0.198 0.298 0.303 OK
J.C. EscarraC 7193 0.158 040.200 3000 12 0.000 0.158 0.200 0.316 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 21497 0.143 140.276 4111 02 0.250 0.162 0.299 0.248 OK
José CaballeroSS 248421 0.250 180.292 4221 00 0.500 0.294 0.333 0.418 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 66 511 0.250

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CorreaSS 238825 0.284 1130.366 5210 01 0.400 0.279 0.369 0.372 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 269533 0.347 11260.466 5101 01 0.200 0.351 0.445 0.791 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 217517 0.227 2100.333 5101 03 0.200 0.227 0.330 0.376 OK
Jose Altuve2B 259825 0.255 380.354 3110 11 0.333 0.233 0.306 0.369 OK
Christian Walker1B 269124 0.264 5180.358 4101 00 0.250 0.241 0.345 0.468 OK
Cam SmithRF 268821 0.239 3110.324 4110 02 0.250 0.206 0.294 0.314 OK
Dustin HarrisLF 360 0.000 000.250 3010 11 0.000 0.167 0.348 0.222
Yainer DiazC 187114 0.197 1100.224 4111 01 0.250 0.181 0.197 0.285 OK
Brice MatthewsCF 15366 0.167 150.250 3101 11 0.333 0.176 0.278 0.324 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 55 311 0.250

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Will WarrenStarter 523.72.66 1.18111.831 5.075534109 4.1 7 2
David BednarMiddle Reliever 1110.23.53 1.66711.513 2.01000433 1.1 3 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 103.65.00 3.05625.010 1.00000217 1.2 3 1
Camilo DovalMiddle Reliever 106.79.40 1.49310.78 1.01000112 0.667 2 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Lance McCullers Jr.Starter 420.16.27 1.3439.421 5.03112491 4.0 2 2
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 98.44.29 1.3108.68 2.05552564 1.2 1 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 98.85.11 1.81812.312 1.00000113 1.2 2 1
Steven OkertMiddle Reliever 139.23.91 1.3048.89 1.01001127 1.2 3 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 6-5


Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers

OAK 13-12 (4.24 RPG / 4.84 RA)
2 - 6
TEX 13-12 (4.28 RPG / 3.68 RA)
TEX WINS Target: OAK 5 - 6 TEX Confidence: 61.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
OAK00000002024
TEX30003000x610

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff-13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Kurtz1B 248320 0.241 4110.427 4000 04 0.000 0.262 0.452 0.488 OK
Shea LangeliersC 249830 0.306 8140.370 4112 00 0.250 0.314 0.392 0.595 OK
Carlos CortesDH 195217 0.327 270.397 3000 11 0.000 0.326 0.382 0.500 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 259621 0.219 2170.303 4200 00 0.500 0.218 0.318 0.389 OK
Jacob WilsonSS 2410429 0.279 2130.286 4000 02 0.000 0.295 0.305 0.431 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 237521 0.280 160.353 3000 11 0.000 0.258 0.342 0.387 OK
Max Muncy3B 248622 0.256 270.320 4100 03 0.250 0.207 0.286 0.338 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 247815 0.192 290.276 2010 12 0.000 0.203 0.288 0.314 OK
Zack GelofCF 7163 0.188 020.188 3000 01 0.000 0.188 0.188 0.250 OK
TEAM TOTALS 314 22 314 0.129

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoRF 2510231 0.304 4110.383 5000 01 0.000 0.268 0.349 0.458 OK
Joc PedersonDH 235513 0.236 140.368 4110 02 0.250 0.271 0.408 0.321 OK
Corey SeagerSS 248718 0.207 6160.317 3120 10 0.333 0.200 0.311 0.442 OK
Jake Burger1B 2510024 0.240 5190.267 3010 10 0.000 0.247 0.277 0.453 OK
Josh Jung3B 227924 0.304 3110.364 4211 01 0.500 0.330 0.384 0.627 OK
Evan CarterCF 247416 0.216 390.322 4215 01 0.500 0.207 0.324 0.364 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 10338 0.242 130.342 4100 00 0.250 0.219 0.324 0.344 OK
Josh Smith2B 237213 0.181 060.286 3200 10 0.667 0.185 0.298 0.229 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 121 0.500 000.750 4100 01 0.250 0.244 0.307 0.394 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3410 66 36 0.294

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis SeverinoStarter 524.26.32 1.73610.027 5.086623102 4.1 5 4
Joel KuhnelMiddle Reliever 86.52.77 1.2314.23 2.01000228 1.1 0 0
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 1411.43.16 1.75410.313 1.01001124 1.1 2 1

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nathan EovaldiStarter 526.25.15 1.56510.029 6.0200210113 6.1 5 2
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1112.12.23 0.8264.56 2.01221338 1.0 0 0
Jalen BeeksMiddle Reliever 129.61.88 1.25010.311 1.01000118 0.667 2 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 6-2


Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

PHI 8-17 (3.56 RPG / 5.6 RA)
2 - 6
ATL 18-8 (5.77 RPG / 3.38 RA)
ATL WINS Target: PHI 1 - 7 ATL Confidence: 90.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PHI00020000026
ATL01230000x68

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.100
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed7.1
Run Diff-35
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.0
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff16
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 2510223 0.225 270.288 4000 01 0.000 0.207 0.282 0.313 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 259118 0.198 8150.342 4100 02 0.250 0.190 0.308 0.508 OK
Bryce Harper1B 259224 0.261 5130.352 3000 10 0.000 0.254 0.338 0.484 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 258619 0.221 360.306 3010 12 0.000 0.233 0.324 0.386 OK
Brandon MarshLF 228024 0.300 4140.329 4000 02 0.000 0.313 0.345 0.511 OK
Bryson Stott2B 196714 0.209 030.264 4110 01 0.250 0.217 0.266 0.246 OK
Alec Bohm3B 248613 0.151 1110.227 4201 00 0.500 0.153 0.218 0.201 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 226918 0.261 030.346 3101 00 0.333 0.234 0.322 0.334 OK
Garrett StubbsC 120 0.000 010.000 3100 01 0.333 0.244 0.307 0.394
TEAM TOTALS 326 22 29 0.188

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 269923 0.232 160.339 4110 02 0.250 0.226 0.334 0.297 OK
Drake BaldwinC 2610734 0.318 7230.392 4113 02 0.250 0.327 0.405 0.545 OK
Matt Olson1B 2610329 0.282 7220.359 4000 03 0.000 0.276 0.349 0.580 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 2610130 0.297 5150.342 3120 10 0.333 0.294 0.342 0.496 OK
Austin Riley3B 269922 0.222 3160.312 4312 01 0.750 0.219 0.294 0.409 OK
Dominic SmithDH 195821 0.362 4170.387 4000 01 0.000 0.382 0.397 0.621 OK
Mauricio DubónSS 248925 0.281 2140.326 3111 10 0.333 0.257 0.309 0.367 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 247715 0.195 050.279 4000 03 0.000 0.207 0.267 0.259 OK
Eli WhiteCF 12265 0.192 140.214 2100 10 0.500 0.192 0.208 0.356 OK
TEAM TOTALS 328 66 312 0.250

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew PainterStarter 418.14.48 1.3819.920 5.076638113 5.1 6 1
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 119.44.79 1.2778.69 2.00000329 1.1 2 1
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 126.710.75 2.68714.811 1.01000115 1.1 2 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Grant HolmesStarter 525.43.54 1.1427.421 5.05222594 5.1 5 2
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 1110.20.88 0.8829.711 3.00000229 1.2 2 0
Joel PayampsMiddle Reliever 84.410.23 1.81814.37 1.01000222 0.667 2 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-2


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

PIT 14-11 (4.92 RPG / 4.12 RA)
5 - 1
MIL 13-11 (5.17 RPG / 4.21 RA)
PIT WINS Target: PIT 5 - 4 MIL Confidence: 60.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PIT00102100158
MIL00000000115

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff12
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 2510229 0.284 8230.348 4221 11 0.500 0.254 0.320 0.527 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 218421 0.250 7190.351 4202 10 0.500 0.262 0.352 0.570 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 259123 0.253 3160.373 4000 02 0.000 0.249 0.386 0.371 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 208014 0.175 280.241 4111 01 0.250 0.222 0.269 0.360 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 228026 0.325 4160.411 4000 00 0.000 0.328 0.412 0.489 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 217722 0.286 0110.321 3000 11 0.000 0.296 0.331 0.320 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 226216 0.258 250.382 4100 01 0.250 0.268 0.393 0.443 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 186612 0.182 080.247 4000 01 0.000 0.196 0.251 0.264 OK
Henry DavisC 15488 0.167 030.273 4221 01 0.500 0.148 0.258 0.185 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 55 38 0.229

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brice Turang2B 228223 0.280 4180.412 3000 11 0.000 0.291 0.417 0.533 OK
William ContrerasC 228626 0.302 2140.381 5000 00 0.000 0.311 0.378 0.432 OK
Jake Bauers1B 227618 0.237 5150.301 4100 01 0.250 0.242 0.304 0.454 OK
Tyler BlackDH 000 0.000 000.000 3000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333
Luis Rengifo3B 206712 0.179 050.253 4100 00 0.250 0.192 0.267 0.275 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 205915 0.254 1180.405 2000 21 0.000 0.243 0.419 0.380 OK
Sal FrelickRF 227616 0.211 150.310 3010 11 0.000 0.214 0.300 0.253 OK
Brandon LockridgeLF 206217 0.274 060.348 4200 00 0.500 0.265 0.342 0.319 OK
David HamiltonSS 195714 0.246 040.377 4101 01 0.250 0.241 0.337 0.241 OK
TEAM TOTALS 325 11 55 0.156

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Paul SkenesStarter 521.33.38 0.9399.723 6.02002395 4.2 5 2
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 1212.00.75 0.7506.89 2.01001140 1.1 0 0
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever 1114.82.43 1.35110.317 1.02112130 1.0 2 1

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon WoodruffStarter 423.23.49 0.9487.820 6.064415102 4.2 5 2
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 117.75.84 1.55811.710 2.00002238 0.667 1 0
Grant AndersonMiddle Reliever 1311.83.05 1.1028.411 1.02110124 0.667 1 1

Game Summary

PIT wins 5-1


Seattle Mariners @ St. Louis Cardinals

SEA 11-15 (3.88 RPG / 3.81 RA)
6 - 7
STL 14-10 (4.67 RPG / 5.12 RA)
STL WINS Target: SEA 4 - 5 STL Confidence: 65.2% enhanced_ml
1234567891011RH
SEA00600000000611
STL0303000000179

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

STL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 186012 0.200 160.351 5111 10 0.200 0.196 0.325 0.310 OK
Cal RaleighC 2610120 0.198 5140.281 4110 10 0.250 0.236 0.311 0.456 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 269824 0.245 180.339 6211 02 0.333 0.280 0.369 0.339 OK
Josh Naylor1B 249318 0.194 2100.269 4001 00 0.000 0.246 0.318 0.384 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 269327 0.290 2100.385 5111 02 0.200 0.290 0.361 0.431 OK
Luke RaleyRF 247221 0.292 5130.354 5201 00 0.400 0.314 0.379 0.602 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 215414 0.259 3100.317 5210 01 0.400 0.280 0.335 0.558 OK
Cole Young2B 269021 0.233 2110.324 5000 01 0.000 0.218 0.304 0.284 OK
Leo Rivas3B 20609 0.150 050.278 4211 10 0.500 0.145 0.273 0.189 OK
TEAM TOTALS 4311 66 36 0.256

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 248719 0.218 3110.364 5112 11 0.200 0.211 0.338 0.367 OK
Iván HerreraC 248719 0.218 3120.378 5203 12 0.400 0.236 0.367 0.414 OK
Alec Burleson1B 239025 0.278 3170.359 6100 02 0.167 0.293 0.355 0.491 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 238926 0.292 8160.357 5000 03 0.000 0.283 0.348 0.579 OK
Nolan GormanDH 237716 0.208 3150.284 4000 12 0.000 0.202 0.265 0.325 OK
Masyn WinnSS 187018 0.257 190.338 4210 10 0.500 0.288 0.372 0.462 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 185513 0.236 270.300 5120 01 0.200 0.271 0.334 0.412 OK
Ramón Urías3B 14438 0.186 250.250 4121 10 0.250 0.159 0.270 0.306 OK
José Fermín2B 9245 0.208 120.259 4111 12 0.250 0.208 0.296 0.375 OK
TEAM TOTALS 429 77 613 0.214

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
George KirbyStarter 532.43.06 1.0807.527 4.07663594 6.1 7 2
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 108.38.67 1.68716.315 3.00001246 1.1 2 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 107.40.00 0.6766.15 1.00001224 1.1 2 0
Jose A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 129.62.81 1.8758.49 3.02111448 0.667 2 0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andre PallanteStarter 420.04.05 1.4505.412 6.08660291 5.0 3 1
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 1312.40.00 0.48410.915 1.01001123 1.0 0 1
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 119.92.73 1.3135.56 1.01000112 0.667 2 1
Gordon GraceffoMiddle Reliever 910.50.86 1.0485.16 3.01002259 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

STL wins 7-6 (Extra Innings - 11)


Washington Nationals @ Chicago White Sox

WAS 11-15 (5.54 RPG / 6.23 RA)
1 - 5
CHW 10-15 (4.16 RPG / 5.2 RA)
CHW WINS Target: WAS 3 - 8 CHW Confidence: 75.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
WAS01000000018
CHW01010030x59

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff-8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs6.1
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 2610226 0.255 10210.402 4100 02 0.250 0.239 0.399 0.613 OK
Daylen LileLF 2510531 0.295 3130.351 4200 00 0.500 0.310 0.374 0.525 OK
Brady HouseDH 239222 0.239 290.286 4000 03 0.000 0.231 0.267 0.306 OK
CJ AbramsSS 258926 0.292 7200.413 3000 13 0.000 0.269 0.394 0.525 OK
Jacob YoungCF 228020 0.250 2120.286 4210 00 0.500 0.232 0.261 0.338 OK
Jorbit Vivas3B 195015 0.300 030.400 4100 02 0.250 0.291 0.384 0.367 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 227513 0.173 060.271 4101 01 0.250 0.144 0.254 0.152 OK
Luis García Jr.2B 258220 0.244 1150.279 4000 01 0.000 0.243 0.292 0.324 OK
Drew MillasC 13417 0.171 020.244 4100 01 0.250 0.190 0.190 0.286 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 11 113 0.229

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Everson PereiraDH 134813 0.271 360.345 3101 20 0.333 0.289 0.341 0.553 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 238723 0.264 120.354 4201 11 0.500 0.285 0.376 0.361 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 258722 0.253 10190.394 4100 01 0.250 0.295 0.433 0.687 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 248717 0.195 5130.336 4010 10 0.000 0.195 0.332 0.450 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 258921 0.236 7180.333 3100 01 0.333 0.271 0.356 0.641 OK
Edgar QueroC 17569 0.161 040.262 3010 10 0.000 0.147 0.286 0.172 OK
Sam AntonacciLF 8275 0.185 130.290 4223 02 0.500 0.185 0.273 0.370 OK
Luisangel AcuñaCF 206312 0.190 030.235 4210 00 0.500 0.166 0.214 0.188 OK
Tristan PetersRF 16429 0.214 010.267 4000 00 0.000 0.178 0.227 0.195 OK
TEAM TOTALS 339 55 55 0.273

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Miles MikolasStarter 519.29.38 2.0317.015 5.082213109 4.0 2 3
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 109.43.83 1.3838.69 2.01332239 1.1 3 0
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 107.74.68 1.94812.911 1.00002024 1.2 2 0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryan HudsonStarter 118.82.05 1.93214.314 5.07111594 4.0 1 0
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 2.01000640 1.0 1 0
Jordan LeasureMiddle Reliever 88.34.34 1.0849.89 1.00000215 0.667 2 0
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever 20.390.00 20.00030.01 1.0000006 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

CHW wins 5-1