MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

April 23, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (9 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
ATL @ WAS6 - 33 - 2ATL wins 3-286%enhanced_ml
CHW @ ARI5 - 47 - 4CHW wins 7-446%enhanced_ml
LAD @ SF5 - 26 - 5LAD wins 6-564%enhanced_ml
MIL @ DET2 - 62 - 5DET wins 5-292%enhanced_ml
MIN @ NYM5 - 23 - 2MIN wins 3-286%enhanced_ml
NYY @ BOS5 - 35 - 3NYY wins 5-369%enhanced_ml
PHI @ CHC1 - 63 - 6CHC wins 6-387%enhanced_ml
PIT @ TEX5 - 46 - 4PIT wins 6-463%enhanced_ml
SD @ COL7 - 24 - 2SD wins 4-286%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

ATL 18-8 (5.77 RPG / 3.38 RA)
3 - 2
WAS 11-15 (5.54 RPG / 6.23 RA)
ATL WINS Target: ATL 6 - 3 WAS Confidence: 85.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ATL02100000038
WAS20000000024

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.6
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff23
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed6.7
Run Diff-14
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 259422 0.234 160.345 5000 01 0.000 0.234 0.345 0.340 OK
Drake BaldwinC 2510333 0.320 7230.391 4210 00 0.500 0.320 0.391 0.563 OK
Matt Olson1B 259826 0.265 7220.348 3100 11 0.333 0.265 0.348 0.582 OK
Austin Riley3B 259521 0.221 3160.308 4101 00 0.250 0.221 0.308 0.358 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 259727 0.278 4110.330 3010 11 0.000 0.278 0.330 0.433 OK
Michael Harris IICF 228124 0.296 6140.329 4100 01 0.250 0.296 0.337 0.543 OK
Dominic SmithDH 185519 0.345 4170.362 4112 00 0.250 0.345 0.362 0.600 OK
Mauricio DubónSS 238425 0.298 2140.344 4000 01 0.000 0.298 0.344 0.452 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 237516 0.213 050.298 4200 00 0.500 0.213 0.298 0.280 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 33 25 0.229

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 259825 0.255 9200.407 2010 20 0.000 0.255 0.407 0.592 OK
Luis García Jr.2B 247920 0.253 1150.289 4100 02 0.250 0.253 0.289 0.367 OK
Jose FernandezDH 000 0.000 000.000 4111 00 0.250 0.313 0.333 0.433
CJ AbramsSS 248625 0.291 6190.410 4100 01 0.250 0.291 0.410 0.535 OK
Jacob YoungCF 217620 0.263 2120.300 4101 00 0.250 0.263 0.300 0.395 OK
Daylen LileLF 2410329 0.282 3130.333 4000 02 0.000 0.282 0.333 0.437 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 217213 0.181 060.280 3000 13 0.000 0.181 0.280 0.194 OK
Jorbit Vivas3B 184714 0.298 030.404 3000 11 0.000 0.298 0.414 0.362 OK
Keibert RuizC 15459 0.200 190.229 3000 00 0.000 0.243 0.306 0.393 OK
TEAM TOTALS 314 22 49 0.129

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Lance McCullers Jr.Starter 000.00 0.0000.00 5.02223697 4.0 2 2
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 1110.20.88 0.8829.711 2.01000123 0.667 2 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 1210.30.87 0.6807.99 1.01000016 0.667 2 0
Joel PayampsMiddle Reliever 84.410.23 1.81814.37 1.00001222 0.667 2 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cade CavalliStarter 518.54.38 1.8388.818 5.05331392 5.0 4 3
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 109.43.83 1.3838.69 3.02001050 0.667 0 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 816.74.85 1.2577.013 1.01000222 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

ATL wins 3-2

Chicago White Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks

CHW 9-15 (4.17 RPG / 5.38 RA)
7 - 4
ARI 14-10 (4.79 RPG / 5.0 RA)
CHW WINS Target: CHW 5 - 4 ARI Confidence: 45.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CHW310201000711
ARI00000003146

CHW Recent Form

Win%?
Avg Runs?
Avg Allowed?
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

ARI Recent Form

Win%?
Avg Runs?
Avg Allowed?
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Andrew BenintendiDH 226914 0.203 170.257 5211 01 0.400 0.203 0.257 0.348 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 248221 0.256 10190.404 4122 10 0.250 0.256 0.404 0.622 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 238316 0.193 5120.333 5112 00 0.200 0.193 0.333 0.434 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 248518 0.212 7180.316 3001 10 0.000 0.212 0.316 0.518 OK
Everson PereiraRF 124413 0.295 360.373 4100 00 0.250 0.243 0.306 0.393 OK
Sam AntonacciLF 7235 0.217 130.333 4100 01 0.250 0.217 0.333 0.435 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 228421 0.250 120.337 4200 01 0.500 0.250 0.337 0.345 OK
Tristan PetersCF 16429 0.214 010.267 4000 03 0.000 0.214 0.267 0.238 OK
Reese McGuireC 240 0.000 000.000 4331 00 0.750 0.243 0.306 0.393
TEAM TOTALS 3711 77 26 0.297

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Geraldo PerdomoSS 237720 0.260 160.366 4010 11 0.000 0.260 0.366 0.416 OK
Ketel Marte2B 229221 0.228 490.283 3101 11 0.333 0.228 0.290 0.391 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 227724 0.312 3170.413 3102 12 0.333 0.312 0.413 0.610 OK
Adrian Del CastilloDH 103810 0.263 190.282 4000 01 0.000 0.243 0.306 0.393 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 176624 0.364 5160.382 4000 00 0.000 0.364 0.382 0.697 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 228021 0.262 4140.286 4000 01 0.000 0.262 0.286 0.438 OK
Jorge BarrosaLF 155012 0.240 160.283 4210 01 0.500 0.240 0.283 0.480 OK
Alek ThomasCF 186512 0.185 180.221 3111 00 0.333 0.185 0.221 0.338 OK
Aramis GarciaC 000 0.000 000.000 3110 11 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333
TEAM TOTALS 326 44 48 0.188

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Davis MartinStarter 425.02.16 1.0006.819 5.02002681 4.0 6 5
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 3.03332257 0.667 1 0
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever 20.390.00 20.00030.01 1.01110016 1.2 2 1

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael SorokaStarter 422.22.84 1.08111.428 5.010771199 4.0 3 1
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 2.01001339 1.1 2 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 21.215.00 3.3337.51 1.00000214 1.2 2 0
Ryan ThompsonMiddle Reliever 22.00.00 0.0004.51 1.0000007 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

CHW wins 7-4

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants

LAD 17-8 (5.48 RPG / 3.28 RA)
6 - 5
SF 11-14 (3.24 RPG / 4.0 RA)
LAD WINS Target: LAD 5 - 2 SF Confidence: 64.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAD04020000067
SF23000000058

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-3
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 238923 0.258 5110.382 4121 12 0.250 0.258 0.382 0.472 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 228726 0.299 3140.371 5203 00 0.400 0.299 0.371 0.506 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 217820 0.256 4130.306 5101 03 0.200 0.256 0.306 0.462 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 239021 0.233 3130.320 4201 00 0.500 0.233 0.320 0.356 OK
Max Muncy3B 238224 0.293 890.376 5000 02 0.000 0.293 0.376 0.598 OK
Andy PagesCF 248530 0.353 5210.404 4000 01 0.000 0.353 0.404 0.576 OK
Dalton RushingC 92912 0.414 7130.452 3010 10 0.000 0.414 0.452 1.207 OK
Hyeseong KimSS 12309 0.300 140.405 2010 10 0.000 0.300 0.405 0.467 OK
Alex Freeland2B 195812 0.207 150.266 2120 21 0.500 0.207 0.266 0.293 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 66 59 0.206

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Willy AdamesSS 249723 0.237 360.282 5100 01 0.200 0.237 0.282 0.433 OK
Luis Arraez2B 239027 0.300 060.330 5110 00 0.200 0.300 0.330 0.356 OK
Matt Chapman3B 249528 0.295 1120.343 4112 01 0.250 0.295 0.343 0.389 OK
Rafael Devers1B 249723 0.237 290.275 4000 02 0.000 0.237 0.275 0.330 OK
Heliot RamosLF 238423 0.274 2130.315 3100 10 0.333 0.274 0.315 0.393 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 248422 0.262 190.312 4100 00 0.250 0.262 0.312 0.369 OK
Will BrennanDH 240 0.000 000.000 2110 20 0.500 0.243 0.306 0.393
Drew GilbertCF 7215 0.238 120.304 4110 01 0.250 0.238 0.304 0.381 OK
Patrick BaileyC 19589 0.155 140.222 4113 03 0.250 0.155 0.222 0.207 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 55 38 0.229

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler GlasnowStarter 425.03.24 0.84010.429 5.075526104 4.1 4 3
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 119.20.98 0.6528.89 2.00000124 1.1 2 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 108.20.00 0.61011.010 1.01001016 0.667 2 1
Jack DreyerMiddle Reliever 109.44.79 1.17010.511 1.00000113 1.2 2 0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan WebbStarter 530.05.40 1.4008.127 4.07664396 5.0 5 3
Ryan WalkerMiddle Reliever 119.63.75 1.56211.212 3.00001239 1.0 0 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 96.65.45 1.97017.713 1.00000221 1.1 2 0
Matt GageMiddle Reliever 117.92.28 1.2668.07 1.00000214 1.2 2 1

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-5

Milwaukee Brewers @ Detroit Tigers

MIL 13-11 (5.17 RPG / 4.21 RA)
2 - 5
DET 14-12 (4.38 RPG / 3.88 RA)
DET WINS Target: MIL 2 - 6 DET Confidence: 91.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIL10001000027
DET20011001x59

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brice Turang2B 217823 0.295 4180.429 3111 01 0.333 0.280 0.351 0.423 OK
William ContrerasC 218225 0.305 2140.387 3200 10 0.667 0.266 0.343 0.442 OK
Jake Bauers1B 227618 0.237 5150.301 4000 00 0.000 0.271 0.383 0.429 OK
Gary SánchezDH 175111 0.216 5120.385 3201 11 0.667 0.235 0.379 0.535 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 195815 0.259 1180.411 4000 00 0.000 0.229 0.357 0.339 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 196412 0.188 050.264 4000 00 0.000 0.233 0.284 0.330 OK
Sal FrelickRF 217515 0.200 150.302 4000 01 0.000 0.270 0.332 0.389 OK
David HamiltonSS 185312 0.226 030.369 4110 00 0.250 0.190 0.286 0.280 OK
Blake PerkinsLF 13344 0.118 030.250 4100 01 0.250 0.224 0.298 0.336 OK
TEAM TOTALS 337 22 24 0.212

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jahmai JonesDH 12245 0.208 130.208 4000 03 0.000 0.299 0.395 0.569 OK
Gleyber Torres2B 248922 0.247 170.376 4111 02 0.250 0.254 0.354 0.380 OK
Kevin McGonigleSS 249029 0.322 1110.413 4110 01 0.250 0.317 0.411 0.488 OK
Matt VierlingRF 144210 0.238 160.267 4111 02 0.250 0.238 0.293 0.333 OK
Dillon DinglerC 217219 0.264 5180.346 4212 01 0.500 0.273 0.331 0.438 OK
Riley GreeneLF 258724 0.276 1140.382 3000 11 0.000 0.212 0.270 0.414 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 247414 0.189 180.333 4100 01 0.250 0.240 0.326 0.403 OK
Hao-Yu Lee3B 4143 0.214 010.267 3111 00 0.333 0.248 0.304 0.409 OK
Javier BáezCF 196518 0.277 150.304 3200 00 0.667 0.237 0.247 0.345 OK
TEAM TOTALS 339 55 111 0.273

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon SproatStarter 415.67.50 1.8599.216 6.074417101 4.0 4 4
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 88.04.50 1.37511.210 2.02110439 0.5 1 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tarik SkubalStarter 529.42.14 0.98610.133 5.05222396 6.0 8 3
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 86.21.45 1.29011.68 3.02000140 0.5 1 0
Drew AndersonMiddle Reliever 710.48.65 1.8278.710 1.0000008 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

DET wins 5-2

Minnesota Twins @ New York Mets

MIN 12-12 (4.96 RPG / 4.42 RA)
3 - 2
NYM 8-16 (3.25 RPG / 4.33 RA)
MIN WINS Target: MIN 5 - 2 NYM Confidence: 86.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIN00000201036
NYM00020000029

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff14
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.100
Avg Runs2.2
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-29
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 229121 0.231 570.290 3010 10 0.000 0.231 0.290 0.451 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 164111 0.268 170.423 4000 00 0.000 0.268 0.444 0.415 OK
Josh BellDH 248321 0.253 3150.344 4111 01 0.250 0.253 0.344 0.422 OK
Ryan JeffersC 165715 0.263 2120.373 3102 10 0.333 0.263 0.391 0.439 OK
Kody Clemens1B 15458 0.178 230.275 4000 00 0.000 0.178 0.275 0.356 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 249420 0.213 1120.257 4100 01 0.250 0.213 0.257 0.277 OK
Matt WallnerRF 227915 0.190 370.281 4100 00 0.250 0.190 0.281 0.329 OK
Royce Lewis3B 14449 0.205 280.340 4100 01 0.250 0.243 0.306 0.393 OK
Brooks LeeSS 217215 0.208 3120.269 3110 00 0.333 0.208 0.269 0.347 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 33 23 0.182

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Bo BichetteSS 2410022 0.220 190.255 4202 11 0.500 0.220 0.255 0.290 OK
Juan SotoLF 93412 0.353 150.421 5200 00 0.400 0.243 0.306 0.393 OK
Luis Robert Jr.CF 227818 0.231 270.333 4000 12 0.000 0.231 0.333 0.333 OK
MJ MelendezDH 5165 0.312 120.389 4100 11 0.250 0.312 0.389 0.625 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 216316 0.254 460.365 4100 01 0.250 0.254 0.365 0.476 OK
Brett Baty3B 206714 0.209 070.214 4000 02 0.000 0.209 0.236 0.284 OK
Mark Vientos1B 195914 0.237 270.281 4110 01 0.250 0.237 0.281 0.373 OK
Marcus Semien2B 248419 0.226 180.290 3010 11 0.000 0.226 0.290 0.310 OK
Carson BengeRF 20669 0.136 130.219 4200 01 0.500 0.136 0.219 0.197 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 22 410 0.250

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joe RyanStarter 527.13.32 0.8869.328 5.052235102 5.0 5 2
Cole SandsMiddle Reliever 109.43.83 1.3839.610 2.01000334 1.0 3 1
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 106.85.29 2.0599.37 1.01000218 1.0 1 0
Eric OrzeMiddle Reliever 98.54.24 1.5298.58 1.02001025 1.0 1 0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Christian ScottStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 6.032223102 4.0 1 1
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 76.17.38 2.13116.211 1.02000015 0.667 2 0
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 108.66.28 1.2797.37 1.01110019 1.1 2 1
Craig KimbrelMiddle Reliever 43.20.00 1.2508.43 1.00000013 1.0 3 0

Game Summary

MIN wins 3-2

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

NYY 15-9 (4.92 RPG / 3.46 RA)
5 - 3
BOS 9-15 (3.75 RPG / 4.58 RA)
NYY WINS Target: NYY 5 - 3 BOS Confidence: 69.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYY02000200159
BOS03000000038

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff9
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Paul Goldschmidt1B 8243 0.125 130.250 5000 03 0.000 0.243 0.292 0.351 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 248721 0.241 9160.359 4111 11 0.250 0.376 0.522 0.730 OK
Cody BellingerCF 238322 0.265 3110.370 4200 10 0.500 0.265 0.348 0.426 OK
Giancarlo StantonDH 228322 0.265 3130.315 5000 02 0.000 0.259 0.339 0.564 OK
Amed Rosario3B 174913 0.265 4130.309 5211 00 0.400 0.287 0.317 0.462 OK
Randal GrichukLF 10265 0.192 020.214 4120 11 0.250 0.220 0.262 0.385 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 238114 0.173 030.264 4112 01 0.250 0.239 0.323 0.461 OK
José CaballeroSS 238019 0.238 180.282 2000 21 0.000 0.251 0.366 0.389 OK
Austin WellsC 205710 0.175 120.324 3201 10 0.667 0.216 0.283 0.407 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 55 69 0.250

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 227019 0.271 170.354 4202 00 0.500 0.246 0.294 0.406 OK
Willson Contreras1B 238021 0.262 4120.392 3100 11 0.333 0.259 0.352 0.448 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 238925 0.281 3110.333 4100 01 0.250 0.250 0.318 0.461 OK
Trevor StorySS 249919 0.192 2170.226 4100 01 0.250 0.264 0.308 0.434 OK
Andruw MonasterioDH 12316 0.194 030.286 4000 02 0.000 0.244 0.305 0.366 OK
Jarren DuranLF 197214 0.194 1110.266 4110 00 0.250 0.243 0.336 0.426 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 227511 0.147 070.238 4000 00 0.000 0.250 0.331 0.374 OK
Connor WongC 10278 0.296 020.345 4110 02 0.250 0.208 0.277 0.271 OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B 11285 0.179 020.233 4111 01 0.250 0.251 0.284 0.318 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 33 18 0.229

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cam SchlittlerStarter 527.21.99 0.77211.936 5.06331391 5.1 6 3
David BednarMiddle Reliever 109.23.91 1.84812.713 2.02000233 1.0 3 0
Camilo DovalMiddle Reliever 106.79.40 1.49310.78 1.00000214 0.5 1 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 1510.92.48 1.83511.614 1.00000113 2.1 3 1

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Garrett CrochetStarter 523.38.11 1.67411.630 5.04222685 7.1 9 3
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 87.21.25 1.11110.08 2.02222136 0.5 1 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 99.02.00 1.11112.012 1.01002128 1.1 3 0
Greg WeissertMiddle Reliever 107.75.84 1.29916.414 1.02110117 0.5 1 1

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-3

Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs

PHI 8-17 (3.56 RPG / 5.6 RA)
3 - 6
CHC 16-9 (5.56 RPG / 3.84 RA)
CHC WINS Target: PHI 1 - 6 CHC Confidence: 87.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PHI20000000138
CHC00002130x69

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.100
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed6.7
Run Diff-35
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs7.2
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff33
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 249823 0.235 270.292 4110 00 0.250 0.235 0.292 0.347 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 248718 0.207 8150.349 4112 01 0.250 0.207 0.349 0.529 OK
Bryce Harper1B 248823 0.261 5130.350 3000 10 0.000 0.261 0.350 0.511 OK
Felix ReyesLF 3113 0.273 110.273 4100 01 0.250 0.243 0.306 0.393 OK
Brandon MarshRF 217621 0.276 2110.300 4100 01 0.250 0.276 0.300 0.408 OK
Bryson Stott2B 186413 0.203 030.261 4100 01 0.250 0.203 0.261 0.234 OK
Alec Bohm3B 238212 0.146 1110.217 4110 01 0.250 0.146 0.217 0.195 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 216418 0.281 030.370 4201 01 0.500 0.281 0.370 0.391 OK
Garrett StubbsC 000 0.000 000.000 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333
TEAM TOTALS 358 33 17 0.229

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 249731 0.320 4220.393 4220 10 0.500 0.320 0.393 0.515 OK
Alex Bregman3B 249926 0.263 290.339 3110 20 0.333 0.263 0.339 0.374 OK
Ian HappLF 228621 0.244 6130.363 5102 02 0.200 0.244 0.363 0.500 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 124312 0.279 260.404 3010 11 0.000 0.279 0.404 0.442 OK
Carson KellyC 185818 0.310 290.412 4202 01 0.500 0.310 0.420 0.466 OK
Michael Busch1B 238516 0.188 160.278 3000 11 0.000 0.188 0.278 0.247 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 247814 0.179 5150.333 3112 00 0.333 0.179 0.333 0.385 OK
Matt ShawCF 215716 0.281 290.311 4000 01 0.000 0.292 0.323 0.493 OK
Miguel AmayaDH 12419 0.220 140.289 3210 10 0.667 0.220 0.333 0.317 OK
TEAM TOTALS 329 66 66 0.281

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cristopher SánchezStarter 528.11.60 1.42312.539 5.07221597 5.1 8 4
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 108.44.29 1.3109.69 2.02444155 1.0 2 0
José AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 115.712.63 2.80715.810 1.00001015 0.667 2 0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Edward CabreraStarter 422.22.43 1.3066.917 6.062215101 5.0 5 2
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 106.82.65 1.32414.611 1.00000114 1.1 2 0
Ben BrownMiddle Reliever 818.32.46 1.1489.820 1.00000113 3.0 4 0
Hoby MilnerMiddle Reliever 1110.51.71 1.0482.63 1.02110021 0.667 2 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 6-3

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Texas Rangers

PIT 14-10 (5.08 RPG / 4.04 RA)
6 - 4
TEX 12-12 (4.21 RPG / 3.79 RA)
PIT WINS Target: PIT 5 - 4 TEX Confidence: 63.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PIT00330000066
TEX200000020410

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs6.2
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff16
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 249828 0.286 7220.352 4313 00 0.750 0.286 0.352 0.551 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 208021 0.262 7190.366 4112 01 0.250 0.262 0.366 0.575 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 248723 0.264 3160.387 5000 02 0.000 0.264 0.387 0.414 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 197614 0.184 280.253 4100 01 0.250 0.184 0.253 0.289 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 217725 0.325 4160.407 3110 11 0.333 0.325 0.413 0.519 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 207420 0.270 0110.299 3010 01 0.000 0.270 0.308 0.311 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 215916 0.271 250.389 4000 01 0.000 0.271 0.389 0.407 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 176212 0.194 080.261 2020 20 0.000 0.194 0.261 0.258 OK
Joey BartC 11325 0.156 120.229 3001 10 0.000 0.243 0.306 0.393 OK
TEAM TOTALS 326 66 47 0.188

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoRF 249929 0.293 4110.364 5201 00 0.400 0.293 0.364 0.495 OK
Joc PedersonDH 225212 0.231 130.369 3010 21 0.000 0.231 0.369 0.308 OK
Corey SeagerSS 238316 0.193 5130.310 5312 00 0.600 0.193 0.310 0.410 OK
Jake Burger1B 249624 0.250 5190.277 5000 02 0.000 0.250 0.277 0.448 OK
Josh Jung3B 217623 0.303 3110.357 4100 12 0.250 0.303 0.357 0.526 OK
Evan CarterCF 237014 0.200 270.313 4110 00 0.250 0.200 0.329 0.343 OK
Danny JansenC 165412 0.222 160.276 4210 01 0.500 0.222 0.276 0.352 OK
Josh Smith2B 226913 0.188 060.288 3000 12 0.000 0.188 0.288 0.217 OK
Alejandro OsunaLF 000 0.000 000.000 4101 01 0.250 0.333 0.500 1.333
TEAM TOTALS 3710 44 49 0.270

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bubba ChandlerStarter 419.33.26 1.3477.917 6.062244125 4.0 3 0
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 1212.00.75 0.7506.89 1.00000214 1.1 2 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 1312.22.21 0.90214.019 1.04220130 0.667 2 0
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever 1013.82.61 1.37710.416 1.00000215 1.0 2 1

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob deGromStarter 419.22.34 1.09411.725 5.056633103 4.2 8 2
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 1011.12.43 0.9014.96 2.01001236 0.667 2 1
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 129.65.62 1.56212.213 1.00000011 1.0 2 0
Robert GarciaMiddle Reliever 96.64.09 1.8188.26 1.00000214 1.1 3 1

Game Summary

PIT wins 6-4

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

SD 16-8 (4.17 RPG / 3.62 RA)
4 - 2
COL 10-15 (4.0 RPG / 4.6 RA)
SD WINS Target: SD 7 - 2 COL Confidence: 85.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SD01010020046
COL00200000025

SD Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed5.7
Run Diff-23
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ramón LaureanoLF 228521 0.247 4150.309 3000 11 0.000 0.278 0.338 0.508 OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 238722 0.253 0110.337 4000 01 0.000 0.265 0.374 0.419 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 239220 0.217 3140.280 4000 01 0.000 0.257 0.311 0.452 OK
Manny Machado3B 237714 0.182 2110.323 2010 21 0.000 0.272 0.333 0.459 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 238724 0.276 3140.344 4101 01 0.250 0.265 0.330 0.392 OK
Gavin Sheets1B 227316 0.219 260.260 4000 02 0.000 0.236 0.309 0.397 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 165216 0.308 020.345 4321 00 0.750 0.312 0.349 0.455 OK
Freddy FerminC 12367 0.194 020.333 4112 00 0.250 0.249 0.303 0.339 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 237411 0.149 140.267 4100 02 0.250 0.241 0.382 0.335 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 44 39 0.182

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Edouard Julien2B 206116 0.262 190.348 4100 00 0.250 0.239 0.328 0.334 OK
Mickey MoniakLF 186318 0.286 6130.313 4000 02 0.000 0.271 0.289 0.493 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 248723 0.264 690.340 4000 01 0.000 0.276 0.320 0.549 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 123911 0.282 060.364 4100 00 0.250 0.246 0.314 0.300 OK
TJ RumfieldDH 258722 0.253 3130.305 4000 01 0.000 0.244 0.300 0.390 OK
Troy Johnston1B 217322 0.301 2100.338 3100 01 0.333 0.296 0.352 0.461 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 248819 0.216 160.258 3110 00 0.333 0.246 0.288 0.389 OK
Kyle Karros3B 256614 0.212 130.354 3000 01 0.000 0.220 0.321 0.280 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 236814 0.206 120.270 3112 01 0.333 0.230 0.274 0.366 OK
TEAM TOTALS 325 22 07 0.156

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matt WaldronStarter 13.216.88 2.81211.24 6.04220486 4.0 1 1
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 1111.10.00 0.36021.927 1.0000009 0.5 1 1
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 109.87.35 1.73511.012 1.00000215 1.0 1 0
David MorganMiddle Reliever 910.73.36 2.05611.814 1.01000112 0.5 1 1

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael LorenzenStarter 620.57.90 2.2447.016 6.03222596 5.2 3 1
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 910.03.60 1.8005.46 1.02220117 1.1 3 0
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever 1110.61.70 0.9439.311 1.00001122 0.5 1 1
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever 117.22.50 1.80613.811 1.01000218 2.1 4 1

Game Summary

SD wins 4-2