MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

April 21, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
ATL @ WAS5 - 16 - 0ATL wins 6-082%enhanced_ml
BAL @ KC3 - 14 - 1BAL wins 4-179%enhanced_ml
CHW @ ARI4 - 64 - 5ARI wins 5-479%enhanced_ml
CIN @ TB3 - 24 - 2CIN wins 4-256%enhanced_ml
HOU @ CLE3 - 61 - 4CLE wins 4-177%enhanced_ml
LAD @ SF4 - 34 - 3LAD wins 4-376%enhanced_ml
MIL @ DET1 - 52 - 3DET wins 3-290%enhanced_ml
MIN @ NYM5 - 28 - 4MIN wins 8-489%enhanced_ml
NYY @ BOS4 - 55 - 6BOS wins 6-553%enhanced_ml
OAK @ SEA3 - 44 - 5SEA wins 5-469%enhanced_ml
PHI @ CHC3 - 72 - 3CHC wins 3-286%enhanced_ml
PIT @ TEX5 - 43 - 2PIT wins 3-279%enhanced_ml
SD @ COL5 - 15 - 1SD wins 5-185%enhanced_ml
STL @ MIA5 - 61 - 5MIA wins 5-180%enhanced_ml
TOR @ LAA4 - 53 - 5LAA wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 11)66%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

ATL 16-7 (5.7 RPG / 3.0 RA)
6 - 0
WAS 10-13 (5.43 RPG / 6.22 RA)
ATL WINS Target: ATL 5 - 1 WAS Confidence: 81.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ATL11031000069
WAS00000000002

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.5
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff28
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed6.2
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 238621 0.244 150.359 4224 02 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Drake BaldwinDH 239630 0.312 5210.377 4000 02 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 238925 0.281 4110.337 5000 00 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Matt Olson1B 239025 0.278 6190.365 3210 10 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Austin Riley3B 238821 0.239 3150.323 4100 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Mauricio DubónSS 217723 0.299 2140.341 3001 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Michael Harris IICF 207321 0.288 4100.325 4220 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jonah HeimC 7235 0.217 020.308 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Eli WhiteLF 10224 0.182 030.208 3111 00 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 349 66 16 0.265

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 239322 0.237 7180.366 3000 11 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Luis Garcia1B 000 0.000 000.000 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333
Jacob YoungCF 196717 0.254 2100.286 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
CJ AbramsSS 227724 0.312 6190.432 4000 02 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Daylen LileLF 229527 0.284 290.327 3100 00 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 206812 0.176 050.273 3100 02 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jorbit Vivas3B 164213 0.310 020.412 3000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jose FernandezDH 000 0.000 000.000 3000 02 0.000 0.500 0.500 0.500
Drew MillasC 12366 0.167 020.250 2000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 292 00 29 0.069

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Reynaldo LópezStarter 420.22.23 1.1398.519 5.02002489 5.1 3 1
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 88.20.00 0.73212.111 2.00000227 1.0 0 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 109.20.98 0.87010.811 1.0000019 0.5 1 0
Aaron BummerMiddle Reliever 93.87.11 2.36811.85 1.00000214 2.0 3 1

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Foster GriffinStarter 420.23.12 1.2878.519 5.07551498 5.0 7 3
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 98.44.29 1.4297.57 3.02110147 0.5 1 0
Mitchell ParkerMiddle Reliever 25.05.40 1.40012.67 1.00000115 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-0

Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals

BAL 11-12 (4.26 RPG / 4.48 RA)
4 - 1
KC 7-16 (3.3 RPG / 4.78 RA)
BAL WINS Target: BAL 3 - 1 KC Confidence: 78.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BAL02000020048
KC10000000016

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

KC Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-20
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 239227 0.293 1110.394 5100 01 0.200 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 239719 0.196 7150.282 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Adley RutschmanC 103410 0.294 030.385 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Pete AlonsoDH 238617 0.198 280.317 3010 10 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 207121 0.296 5170.311 4210 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Weston Wilson3B 472 0.286 020.444 4201 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Leody TaverasCF 174415 0.341 2130.453 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Coby Mayo1B 16548 0.148 040.258 4211 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Blaze AlexanderRF 165210 0.192 010.250 3112 11 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 44 28 0.229

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 239225 0.272 290.333 4310 00 0.750 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 238725 0.287 090.370 4000 01 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 238713 0.149 2100.240 4101 01 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Salvador PerezC 228515 0.176 360.220 4100 03 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Carter JensenDH 206315 0.238 5120.310 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Michael Massey2B 10264 0.154 020.185 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 206718 0.269 120.347 3000 10 0.000 - - -
Isaac CollinsLF 175611 0.196 140.286 3000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 195413 0.241 260.305 3000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 11 19 0.182

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane BazStarter 421.35.07 1.5968.019 6.041118101 5.1 5 2
Ryan HelsleyMiddle Reliever 109.11.98 1.31913.814 1.01000016 0.5 1 0
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 1110.30.00 0.3889.611 1.01000118 2.0 2 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 115.71.58 0.87714.29 1.00000011 1.2 2 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kris BubicStarter 422.24.05 1.08110.526 6.05221694 4.1 6 2
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 97.47.30 2.0276.15 1.03220019 1.1 2 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 87.23.75 1.11111.29 1.00000112 0.5 1 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 88.31.08 0.60213.012 1.00001121 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

BAL wins 4-1

Chicago White Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks

CHW 8-14 (3.73 RPG / 5.14 RA)
4 - 5
ARI 13-9 (4.5 RPG / 4.64 RA)
ARI WINS Target: CHW 4 - 6 ARI Confidence: 78.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CHW20110000046
ARI10102100x510

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff10
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Andrew BenintendiDH 206112 0.197 160.258 3010 12 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 227215 0.208 8160.376 4212 01 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 217513 0.173 3100.315 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 227515 0.200 5130.318 4111 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Everson PereiraRF 103711 0.297 350.366 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Sam AntonacciLF 5162 0.125 000.300 3100 11 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 207619 0.250 120.329 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Tristan PetersCF 16429 0.214 010.267 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Reese McGuireC 240 0.000 000.000 3211 00 0.667 0.333 0.500 0.667
TEAM TOTALS 336 44 29 0.182

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 208318 0.217 490.270 4321 00 0.750 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 207021 0.300 3160.390 4212 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 217016 0.229 150.325 4101 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Adrian Del CastilloC 93311 0.333 1110.353 4100 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 281 0.125 000.125 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Jose FernandezDH 166018 0.300 290.300 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 207315 0.205 3110.213 4111 01 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 155721 0.368 280.390 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Alek ThomasCF 176110 0.164 070.203 3110 00 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3410 55 17 0.294

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sean BurkeStarter 420.14.48 1.2947.617 5.074417108 5.0 4 2
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 2.03110034 0.5 1 0
Jordan LeasureMiddle Reliever 88.34.34 1.0849.89 1.00000011 0.5 1 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Merrill KellyStarter 15.13.53 1.7655.33 6.064417108 5.2 4 1
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 2.00001122 0.5 1 0
Ryan ThompsonMiddle Reliever 22.00.00 0.0004.51 1.00000114 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-4

Cincinnati Reds @ Tampa Bay Rays

CIN 15-8 (3.65 RPG / 3.78 RA)
4 - 2
TB 12-10 (4.73 RPG / 5.23 RA)
CIN WINS Target: CIN 3 - 2 TB Confidence: 56.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CIN100020100410
TB20000000024

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TB Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dane MyersCF 14287 0.250 020.323 5000 01 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Matt McLain2B 218015 0.188 030.323 5331 01 0.600 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 239224 0.261 6130.333 4210 10 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Sal Stewart1B 238324 0.289 8210.388 3000 13 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 238221 0.256 3110.330 5102 02 0.200 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Spencer SteerLF 217115 0.211 350.269 3101 11 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Tyler StephensonC 17539 0.170 250.286 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Rece HindsRF 6213 0.143 050.174 4200 01 0.500 - - -
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 18564 0.071 000.133 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 MODERATE
TEAM TOTALS 3710 44 311 0.270

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 228930 0.337 040.359 4110 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Junior Caminero3B 228822 0.250 5100.337 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 228018 0.225 3160.343 4212 02 0.500 0.333 0.500 1.333 OK
Yandy DíazDH 228628 0.326 3170.420 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jake FraleyRF 164711 0.234 120.308 3000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 207511 0.147 280.198 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Richie Palacios2B 153510 0.286 140.419 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 11235 0.217 030.333 2000 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Taylor WallsSS 12419 0.220 040.289 2000 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 314 22 39 0.129

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chase BurnsStarter 422.12.44 1.0869.022 5.03221792 4.0 8 3
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 1111.14.86 1.2618.110 3.00001237 0.5 1 0
Connor PhillipsMiddle Reliever 1311.92.27 1.76510.614 1.01001016 2.1 3 1

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Steven MatzStarter 421.13.84 1.0439.021 6.084437125 4.2 4 3
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 98.14.44 1.23510.09 1.01000118 1.1 2 0
Griffin JaxMiddle Reliever 95.84.66 1.89710.97 1.01000115 1.2 2 0
Hunter BiggeMiddle Reliever 65.41.67 1.1113.32 1.00000214 1.0 3 1

Game Summary

CIN wins 4-2

Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians

HOU 9-15 (5.42 RPG / 5.92 RA)
1 - 4
CLE 13-11 (4.04 RPG / 4.33 RA)
CLE WINS Target: HOU 3 - 6 CLE Confidence: 76.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
HOU00000000115
CLE01000003x47

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CorreaSS 218022 0.275 1120.359 5100 00 0.200 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 248628 0.326 10210.459 2000 20 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jose Altuve2B 238925 0.281 380.385 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 1.333 OK
Christian Walker1B 248423 0.274 5180.367 3200 10 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 196815 0.221 2100.329 4100 01 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Cam SmithRF 248019 0.238 3110.330 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Yainer DiazC 176713 0.194 1100.222 3111 11 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Brice MatthewsCF 13314 0.129 140.206 4000 03 0.000 0.333 0.500 1.333 OK
Dustin HarrisLF 250 0.000 000.167 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333
TEAM TOTALS 325 11 58 0.156

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 239120 0.220 180.294 4100 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 207316 0.219 5120.310 4110 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
José Ramírez3B 248720 0.230 6120.356 4110 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 206612 0.182 130.260 4223 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
George ValeraRF 6175 0.294 030.333 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Daniel Schneemann2B 185316 0.302 2110.362 3100 00 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Angel MartínezLF 196517 0.262 290.314 3101 01 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Austin HedgesC 8287 0.250 020.290 3000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 237020 0.286 3140.390 3000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 317 44 14 0.226

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan WeissStarter 613.57.33 2.22212.018 5.02111170 4.0 1 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 96.416.88 3.43816.912 2.02000335 0.5 1 1
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 88.62.09 1.39512.612 1.03330024 1.0 2 0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 425.21.07 0.7948.925 5.02004499 5.1 8 4
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 1111.04.09 1.27311.514 2.02001233 0.5 1 1
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 107.82.31 1.66715.013 1.00000110 1.2 3 1
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever 83.60.00 2.5007.53 1.01110120 1.2 0 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-1

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants

LAD 16-6 (6.05 RPG / 3.45 RA)
4 - 3
SF 9-13 (3.41 RPG / 4.36 RA)
LAD WINS Target: LAD 4 - 3 SF Confidence: 75.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAD03001000048
SF01002000035

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.8
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff23
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 218122 0.272 5110.402 4100 11 0.250 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 218221 0.256 3130.347 4100 10 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 208124 0.296 3140.360 4101 00 0.250 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 197119 0.268 4130.312 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Max Muncy3B 000 0.000 000.000 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333
Dalton RushingC 82712 0.444 7130.464 4210 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Hyeseong KimSS 10268 0.308 130.406 3111 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Alex CallCF 6207 0.350 020.480 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Alex Freeland2B 185512 0.218 150.267 3122 11 0.333 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 348 44 45 0.235

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Willy AdamesSS 228922 0.247 360.295 5312 01 0.600 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Luis Arraez2B 218225 0.305 060.337 5000 01 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Matt Chapman3B 228926 0.292 1120.330 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Rafael Devers1B 228920 0.225 280.266 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Casey SchmittDH 176420 0.312 270.362 3010 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 227819 0.244 180.299 3101 12 0.333 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Heliot RamosLF 217820 0.256 2130.301 3000 12 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Drew GilbertCF 5165 0.312 120.389 3100 12 0.333 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Patrick BaileyC 17538 0.151 010.211 3010 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
TEAM TOTALS 325 33 611 0.156

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Yoshinobu YamamotoStarter 425.22.14 0.8337.521 5.033355112 6.2 9 5
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 108.21.10 0.6108.88 2.01000333 0.5 1 1
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever 108.20.00 0.61011.010 1.00001221 1.0 3 0
Will KleinMiddle Reliever 79.22.93 1.4139.810 1.01000116 0.5 1 0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Landen RouppStarter 422.22.43 0.9919.724 5.05443394 5.1 4 1
Ryan WalkerMiddle Reliever 97.64.74 1.84211.810 2.01001031 1.2 2 0
Caleb KilianMiddle Reliever 107.91.14 1.01315.914 1.02000221 0.5 1 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 109.12.97 0.65911.912 1.00000011 1.1 3 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-3

Milwaukee Brewers @ Detroit Tigers

MIL 12-9 (5.05 RPG / 4.14 RA)
2 - 3
DET 12-11 (4.35 RPG / 3.61 RA)
DET WINS Target: MIL 1 - 5 DET Confidence: 90.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIL00000010126
DET30000000x39

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brice Turang2B 197021 0.300 4140.437 5100 01 0.200 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
William ContrerasC 197322 0.301 2110.393 3000 01 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Jake Bauers1B 206715 0.224 5130.297 3000 12 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Gary SánchezDH 154210 0.238 5110.429 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 175013 0.260 1170.422 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Luis Rengifo3B 176010 0.167 040.227 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.500 1.333 OK
Sal FrelickRF 196813 0.191 140.295 4211 00 0.500 0.250 0.400 0.500 OK
David HamiltonSS 16458 0.178 030.339 3110 11 0.333 0.333 0.500 1.333 OK
Blake PerkinsLF 12324 0.125 020.222 4101 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 22 37 0.182

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jahmai JonesDH 10215 0.238 130.238 4210 01 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Gleyber Torres2B 228420 0.238 170.356 4000 01 0.000 0.500 0.500 0.500 OK
Kevin McGonigleSS 228226 0.317 190.411 4210 02 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 OK
Matt VierlingRF 13389 0.237 140.250 4113 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Dillon DinglerC 206719 0.284 5180.368 4200 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Riley GreeneLF 238021 0.262 1140.372 4000 02 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 226712 0.179 060.329 3000 02 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Hao-Yu Lee3B 3112 0.182 010.182 3100 01 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Javier BáezCF 175817 0.293 150.323 3100 00 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 339 33 011 0.273

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle HarrisonStarter 314.23.17 1.1279.515 6.083309115 4.0 2 1
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 77.05.14 1.57111.69 2.01000226 0.5 1 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Keider MonteroStarter 316.13.35 0.8708.415 6.030026100 5.1 4 2
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 75.21.73 0.96212.17 1.01111021 1.2 2 1
Will VestMiddle Reliever 107.65.92 1.57913.011 1.00000011 0.5 1 0
Drew AndersonMiddle Reliever 710.48.65 1.8278.710 1.02110119 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

DET wins 3-2

Minnesota Twins @ New York Mets

MIN 11-11 (5.09 RPG / 4.55 RA)
8 - 4
NYM 7-15 (3.27 RPG / 4.41 RA)
MIN WINS Target: MIN 5 - 2 NYM Confidence: 88.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIN12400000188
NYM00100102048

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff9
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.000
Avg Runs1.7
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-38
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 208119 0.235 340.300 4325 10 0.750 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 14349 0.265 170.444 5201 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Josh BellDH 227620 0.263 3150.352 4001 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ryan JeffersC 155415 0.278 2120.381 4000 14 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Kody Clemens1B 13396 0.154 230.267 5111 02 0.200 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 228618 0.209 1100.258 4010 10 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Matt WallnerRF 207213 0.181 360.272 3220 10 0.667 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Royce Lewis3B 12368 0.222 280.378 2020 20 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.667 OK
Brooks LeeSS 196414 0.219 3120.286 4000 03 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 88 710 0.229

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Marcus Semien2B 227718 0.234 180.294 4100 11 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Francisco LindorSS 228818 0.205 110.293 5110 01 0.200 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Luis Robert Jr.CF 207018 0.257 270.366 3101 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Bo Bichette3B 229220 0.217 190.255 5000 01 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
MJ MelendezDH 4145 0.357 120.438 3120 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 195615 0.268 450.379 4101 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Brett BatyRF 196513 0.200 070.206 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Mark Vientos1B 175412 0.222 260.246 3112 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Carson BengeLF 19639 0.143 130.229 3100 10 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 348 44 54 0.235

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Simeon Woods RichardsonStarter 420.26.24 1.6344.911 6.072233118 4.0 4 2
Cole SandsMiddle Reliever 97.44.86 1.7578.57 2.01221135 1.2 2 0
Anthony BandaMiddle Reliever 96.813.24 2.05910.68 1.00001016 1.0 1 0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nolan McLeanStarter 423.22.33 0.77610.928 5.067765125 6.0 10 5
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 76.17.38 2.13116.211 3.01001346 1.1 2 0
Craig KimbrelMiddle Reliever 43.20.00 1.2508.43 1.01110217 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

MIN wins 8-4

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

NYY 13-9 (5.0 RPG / 3.73 RA)
5 - 6
BOS 9-13 (4.05 RPG / 4.64 RA)
BOS WINS Target: NYY 4 - 5 BOS Confidence: 53.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYY310000100510
BOS01203000x68

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff3
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Amed Rosario3B 154512 0.267 390.306 5221 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 228219 0.232 9160.330 5110 01 0.200 0.333 0.500 1.333 OK
Ben Rice1B 206522 0.338 8170.482 4101 11 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Giancarlo StantonDH 207518 0.240 2100.296 4212 11 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Cody BellingerCF 217621 0.276 3110.380 5110 00 0.200 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Randal GrichukLF 8202 0.100 010.136 4101 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 217312 0.164 030.265 3100 01 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.667 OK
José CaballeroSS 217317 0.233 180.282 3100 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Austin WellsC 18509 0.180 120.344 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3710 55 36 0.270

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyLF 217718 0.234 140.366 5000 02 0.000 0.500 0.500 0.500 OK
Willson Contreras1B 217320 0.274 4120.404 3000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 133411 0.324 050.465 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 218124 0.296 3110.352 3110 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Trevor StorySS 229218 0.196 2170.224 3120 12 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 206318 0.286 170.366 4102 01 0.250 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 195510 0.182 130.258 3010 12 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 206811 0.162 070.260 4212 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Carlos NarváezC 144711 0.234 010.265 3212 11 0.667 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 328 66 59 0.250

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis GilStarter 29.07.00 1.4447.07 4.086654123 4.0 5 1
David BednarMiddle Reliever 98.24.39 1.95113.212 3.00000345 0.5 1 0
Camilo DovalMiddle Reliever 106.79.40 1.49310.78 1.00000211 1.0 3 0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Connelly EarlyStarter 419.22.34 1.3029.420 6.085525109 5.2 7 2
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 87.21.25 1.11110.08 1.01000011 0.5 1 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 99.02.00 1.11112.012 1.01001125 0.5 1 1
Greg WeissertMiddle Reliever 107.75.84 1.29916.414 1.0000009 1.2 1 1

Game Summary

BOS wins 6-5

Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners

OAK 12-11 (4.22 RPG / 4.96 RA)
4 - 5
SEA 10-14 (3.92 RPG / 3.75 RA)
SEA WINS Target: OAK 3 - 4 SEA Confidence: 69.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
OAK02001000147
SEA00100100357

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Kurtz1B 227517 0.227 3100.420 4110 11 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Shea LangeliersC 228927 0.303 7130.367 5301 01 0.600 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Carlos CortesDH 174214 0.333 270.417 5000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 238919 0.213 2150.300 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jacob WilsonSS 229525 0.263 2100.271 4000 00 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 216718 0.269 040.351 3100 11 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Max Muncy3B 227920 0.253 270.307 2121 10 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 227215 0.208 290.278 3112 00 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Zack GelofCF 6122 0.167 020.167 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 44 35 0.206

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Rob RefsnyderRF 11241 0.042 110.148 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 LARGE
Cal RaleighDH 249315 0.161 3120.248 3010 11 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 249020 0.222 170.320 4212 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Josh Naylor1B 228615 0.174 280.253 3110 12 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 248624 0.279 290.386 4110 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
J.P. CrawfordSS 165110 0.196 160.369 4212 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Mitch GarverC 7192 0.105 000.261 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Cole Young2B 248220 0.244 2110.340 3001 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Leo Rivas3B 18538 0.151 050.292 3000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.000 OK
TEAM TOTALS 317 55 37 0.226

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob LopezStarter 418.16.46 1.9898.016 6.02113593 5.2 8 2
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 117.89.23 2.56411.510 2.01110232 0.5 1 1
Scott BarlowMiddle Reliever 97.81.15 1.02610.49 0.14330020 0.5 1 1

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis CastilloStarter 417.45.69 1.8978.817 5.04332499 4.0 5 3
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 97.38.63 1.78117.314 2.01001024 0.5 1 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 96.40.00 0.7817.05 1.00000114 0.5 1 1
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 107.71.17 1.4299.48 1.02110027 0.5 1 1

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-4

Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs

PHI 8-14 (3.45 RPG / 5.36 RA)
2 - 3
CHC 13-9 (5.32 RPG / 3.77 RA)
CHC WINS Target: PHI 3 - 7 CHC Confidence: 85.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PHI00020000029
CHC00000002137

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed6.1
Run Diff-27
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.1
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff22
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 229022 0.244 270.299 4100 10 0.250 0.250 0.400 1.000 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 228017 0.212 7140.357 4000 03 0.000 0.250 0.400 1.000 OK
Bryce Harper1B 228022 0.275 4110.370 4210 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Felix ReyesLF 131 0.333 110.333 4110 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 227716 0.208 250.303 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 155014 0.280 140.368 4202 00 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Alec Bohm3B 217510 0.133 1100.214 4100 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Brandon MarshCF 207219 0.264 2110.289 4100 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Edmundo Sosa2B 10287 0.250 150.276 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 22 17 0.250

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 228728 0.322 3210.396 4102 01 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Alex BregmanDH 229022 0.244 290.317 4000 01 0.000 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Ian HappLF 207819 0.244 6110.359 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 10358 0.229 020.372 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Carson KellyC 175417 0.315 290.413 4210 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Michael Busch1B 217713 0.169 030.261 3111 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 227314 0.192 5150.322 3110 00 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Matt Shaw3B 205515 0.273 290.305 3000 01 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 228418 0.214 150.275 3100 01 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 327 33 16 0.219

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jesús LuzardoStarter 421.58.37 1.53512.630 6.02000585 4.1 6 3
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 98.24.39 1.3419.99 2.03221039 0.5 1 0
Tanner BanksMiddle Reliever 88.24.39 1.70711.010 0.1211019 0.5 1 0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shota ImanagaStarter 422.02.45 0.77312.731 6.05221797 4.2 6 3
Ben BrownMiddle Reliever 716.22.78 1.1118.315 1.0000009 3.0 4 0
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 96.62.73 1.36415.011 1.02000017 1.2 2 0
Riley MartinMiddle Reliever 66.10.00 0.65610.37 1.02000020 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 3-2

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Texas Rangers

PIT 13-9 (5.14 RPG / 4.0 RA)
3 - 2
TEX 11-11 (4.18 RPG / 3.73 RA)
PIT WINS Target: PIT 5 - 4 TEX Confidence: 78.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PIT00010020037
TEX01000100028

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.9
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff19
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 228926 0.292 6190.364 4112 01 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 197023 0.329 4150.410 4110 02 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 227921 0.266 3150.392 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 176913 0.188 270.253 3100 11 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Nick Yorke3B 165714 0.246 140.323 4201 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 205514 0.255 250.382 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Nick Gonzales2B 186617 0.258 0110.290 3010 10 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 155512 0.218 080.290 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Henry DavisC 13438 0.186 030.286 4000 02 0.000 - - -
TEAM TOTALS 347 33 29 0.206

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoRF 229028 0.311 4110.386 5000 05 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 197919 0.241 140.268 3100 22 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Corey SeagerSS 217515 0.200 5120.326 3100 21 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Jake Burger1B 228822 0.250 5170.280 4100 12 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Joc PedersonDH 204811 0.229 130.345 4000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Josh Jung3B 196920 0.290 280.342 5210 03 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Evan CarterCF 216312 0.190 260.307 3010 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Danny JansenC 155011 0.220 160.278 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Josh Smith2B 206512 0.185 050.284 4202 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 22 715 0.229

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Carmen MlodzinskiStarter 419.41.86 1.3929.320 5.042247117 4.2 5 1
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 1111.00.82 0.8185.77 3.02002668 0.5 0 1
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever 1013.82.61 1.37710.416 1.02001224 1.1 2 1

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kumar RockerStarter 314.24.44 1.5498.914 6.051116106 4.1 5 3
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 910.12.67 0.8915.36 1.01221023 1.2 0 0
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 108.53.18 1.41210.610 1.01000120 0.5 0 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 119.70.93 1.4439.310 1.00000218 0.5 0 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 3-2

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

SD 15-7 (4.36 RPG / 3.59 RA)
5 - 1
COL 9-14 (4.0 RPG / 4.83 RA)
SD WINS Target: SD 5 - 1 COL Confidence: 85.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SD500000000511
COL00100000013

SD Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff19
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed6.1
Run Diff-25
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ramón LaureanoLF 207721 0.273 4150.329 5000 04 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 217920 0.253 0110.344 5110 00 0.200 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 218619 0.221 3130.272 4210 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Manny Machado3B 217013 0.186 2100.330 4211 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 217921 0.266 3140.341 4212 00 0.500 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Gavin Sheets1B 206616 0.242 260.286 4211 02 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 154815 0.312 020.353 4101 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Freddy FerminC 11336 0.182 020.317 4100 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 216710 0.149 130.269 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3811 55 010 0.289

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Edouard Julien2B 185414 0.259 180.344 4111 11 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Mickey MoniakRF 165515 0.273 6120.305 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 227919 0.241 580.318 3000 11 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
TJ RumfieldDH 237920 0.253 3110.310 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Troy Johnston1B 196621 0.318 2100.357 3100 12 0.333 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 228519 0.224 160.258 3000 13 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kyle Karros3B 236013 0.217 130.360 2000 21 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jordan BeckLF 15458 0.178 170.224 3000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 216514 0.215 120.282 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 303 11 711 0.100

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Randy VásquezStarter 421.22.55 1.32110.625 5.02113592 4.0 2 2
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 1111.10.00 0.36021.927 2.00003350 0.5 1 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 98.88.18 1.93210.210 1.00000217 1.0 2 1
Jason AdamMiddle Reliever 53.22.81 1.5622.81 1.01001127 1.1 3 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever 109.61.88 1.0427.58 5.095507111 0.5 1 0
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 910.03.60 1.8005.46 3.02000246 1.1 3 0
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 612.70.71 0.78712.017 1.00000114 3.0 6 2

Game Summary

SD wins 5-1

St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins

STL 13-9 (4.82 RPG / 5.27 RA)
1 - 5
MIA 11-12 (4.57 RPG / 4.52 RA)
MIA WINS Target: STL 5 - 6 MIA Confidence: 80.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
STL00000000115
MIA02000012x57

STL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 227918 0.228 3110.376 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Iván HerreraDH 227816 0.205 2110.382 3100 11 0.333 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Alec Burleson1B 228623 0.267 3150.354 3000 12 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 228526 0.306 8160.372 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 217014 0.200 3140.275 4000 03 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Masyn WinnSS 176616 0.242 190.329 3110 10 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Nathan ChurchLF 164810 0.208 150.269 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Pedro PagésC 13429 0.214 150.277 2101 10 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Victor Scott IICF 205512 0.218 040.267 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 315 11 411 0.161

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jakob MarseeCF 238713 0.149 040.279 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kyle StowersLF 263 0.500 000.625 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.500 1.333 OK
Otto LopezSS 228328 0.337 3110.391 4210 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 238529 0.341 170.423 3111 11 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Liam HicksC 227124 0.338 4210.380 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Agustín RamírezDH 228118 0.222 2110.297 3111 11 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Owen CaissieRF 206515 0.231 2130.268 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Graham Pauley3B 17508 0.160 050.192 3120 10 0.333 0.333 0.500 1.000 OK
Connor Norby1B 216917 0.246 270.346 3103 01 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 317 55 46 0.226

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dustin MayStarter 419.17.07 1.6237.115 5.03222380 5.2 4 4
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 1211.40.00 0.43911.114 2.01112244 0.5 0 1
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 119.92.73 1.3135.56 1.03220127 1.2 0 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris PaddackStarter 418.45.87 1.5228.818 5.03002793 4.0 2 4
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 88.07.88 1.12513.512 2.00001231 1.2 3 0
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 106.65.45 2.12116.412 1.00001122 0.5 1 0
Andrew NardiMiddle Reliever 86.45.62 1.40611.28 1.02110121 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 5-1

Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels

TOR 9-13 (4.0 RPG / 5.05 RA)
3 - 5
LAA 11-13 (4.88 RPG / 4.54 RA)
LAA WINS Target: TOR 4 - 5 LAA Confidence: 65.7% enhanced_ml
1234567891011RH
TOR0210000000033
LAA00100110002512

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff11
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nathan LukesLF 164410 0.227 070.255 5110 01 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ernie Clement2B 229127 0.297 050.304 5000 00 0.000 0.500 0.500 0.500 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 228229 0.354 2120.442 4000 13 0.000 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 216617 0.258 2110.311 3101 01 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Eloy JiménezDH 6197 0.368 010.429 3010 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 196817 0.250 370.329 4112 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 218017 0.212 380.292 4000 01 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 227821 0.269 3120.301 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 10275 0.185 120.214 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 363 33 28 0.083

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 249323 0.247 5110.375 6211 00 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Mike TroutCF 238119 0.235 7160.415 5000 02 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Jo AdellRF 249727 0.278 3140.320 5101 03 0.200 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Jorge SolerDH 207317 0.233 5190.333 5210 01 0.400 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Oswald Peraza3B 186217 0.274 480.338 5100 01 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 218419 0.226 2140.302 5211 02 0.400 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Vaughn Grissom2B 6164 0.250 010.429 5212 02 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Logan O'HoppeC 216613 0.197 180.316 4110 11 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Bryce TeodosioLF 7192 0.105 010.150 5100 02 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 4512 55 114 0.267

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Patrick CorbinStarter 29.24.89 1.3048.89 6.07220793 5.2 5 3
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 119.47.66 2.12822.023 1.02111025 1.1 3 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 1110.40.87 1.1544.35 1.00000217 0.5 0 0
Braydon FisherMiddle Reliever 1110.80.83 0.92610.012 1.02000319 1.2 0 0
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever 105.96.10 1.86416.811 2.01220225 0.5 1 0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack KochanowiczStarter 422.43.62 1.2957.218 6.03332490 5.2 2 4
Jordan RomanoMiddle Reliever 85.43.33 1.11116.710 2.00000123 0.5 1 0
Brent SuterMiddle Reliever 815.32.35 1.3078.815 3.00000342 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

LAA wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 11)