MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

April 20, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (10 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
ATL @ WAS7 - 25 - 2ATL wins 5-281%enhanced_ml
BAL @ KC4 - 13 - 2BAL wins 3-275%enhanced_ml
CIN @ TB2 - 43 - 4TB wins 4-373%enhanced_ml
DET @ BOS5 - 37 - 3DET wins 7-379%enhanced_ml
HOU @ CLE4 - 64 - 5CLE wins 5-478%enhanced_ml
LAD @ COL6 - 46 - 3LAD wins 6-380%enhanced_ml
OAK @ SEA2 - 54 - 5SEA wins 5-466%enhanced_ml
PHI @ CHC2 - 81 - 3CHC wins 3-188%enhanced_ml
STL @ MIA5 - 26 - 4STL wins 6-479%enhanced_ml
TOR @ LAA3 - 54 - 7LAA wins 7-467%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

ATL 15-7 (5.55 RPG / 2.95 RA)
5 - 2
WAS 10-12 (5.5 RPG / 6.09 RA)
ATL WINS Target: ATL 7 - 2 WAS Confidence: 81.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
ATL05000000056
WAS00000020025

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.4
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff29
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff-6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 228521 0.247 150.350 3213 10 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Drake BaldwinC 229228 0.304 5190.366 4000 00 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.500 OK
Matt Olson1B 228624 0.279 5160.374 4000 02 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Austin Riley3B 228421 0.250 3150.330 4110 01 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 228524 0.282 4100.340 4210 00 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Michael Harris IICF 196920 0.290 490.329 4111 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Dominic SmithDH 175118 0.353 4160.370 3001 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jorge MateoSS 8197 0.368 130.400 3010 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 206514 0.215 050.311 3000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 326 55 25 0.188

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 228922 0.247 7180.380 4112 00 0.250 0.500 0.500 0.500 OK
Luis Garcia1B 000 0.000 000.000 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333
Brady House3B 208119 0.235 290.279 3000 12 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
CJ AbramsSS 217524 0.320 6190.429 2200 20 1.000 0.500 0.600 0.750 OK
Daylen LileLF 219226 0.283 180.320 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Jacob YoungCF 186316 0.254 280.288 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jose FernandezDH 000 0.000 000.000 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333
Drew MillasC 11336 0.182 020.270 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 196512 0.185 050.284 3110 10 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 325 22 46 0.156

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryce ElderStarter 422.40.80 1.0719.223 6.04002292 5.2 4 1
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 88.20.00 0.73212.111 1.01221226 0.5 1 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 109.20.98 0.87010.811 1.00001118 0.5 1 0
Aaron BummerMiddle Reliever 83.77.30 2.43212.25 1.00000114 1.0 2 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jake IrvinStarter 419.06.16 1.4749.921 5.04552390 5.2 2 1
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 98.44.29 1.4297.57 2.02000031 1.1 0 0
Gus VarlandMiddle Reliever 86.54.15 1.69212.59 1.00000214 0.5 0 1
PJ PoulinMiddle Reliever 1310.04.50 1.8007.28 1.00000011 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-2

Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals

BAL 10-12 (4.14 RPG / 4.45 RA)
3 - 2
KC 7-15 (3.23 RPG / 4.68 RA)
BAL WINS Target: BAL 4 - 1 KC Confidence: 74.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BAL01000020037
KC00200000028

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

KC Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs2.6
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-20
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gunnar HendersonSS 229319 0.204 7150.279 4101 10 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Taylor WardLF 228826 0.295 1110.388 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Dylan BeaversDH 175211 0.212 160.300 3100 10 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Pete Alonso1B 228217 0.207 280.323 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Samuel BasalloC 16578 0.140 340.234 4210 02 0.500 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 196620 0.303 5170.319 4100 01 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Colton CowserRF 18468 0.174 030.264 3111 11 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Leody TaverasCF 163914 0.359 190.479 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Blaze Alexander3B 154710 0.213 010.275 4111 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 33 38 0.206

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 228622 0.256 290.323 5100 00 0.200 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 228223 0.280 080.362 5101 01 0.200 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 228313 0.157 2100.234 4100 01 0.250 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Salvador PerezDH 217912 0.152 360.200 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Carter JensenC 195914 0.237 5120.303 3100 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Michael Massey2B 9234 0.174 020.208 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 196317 0.270 010.343 3110 11 0.333 - - -
Isaac CollinsLF 16509 0.180 140.281 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 184913 0.265 260.333 4111 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 22 38 0.229

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle BradishStarter 419.25.62 1.6679.821 6.082224119 5.2 7 4
Ryan HelsleyMiddle Reliever 98.12.22 1.48113.312 2.00001230 1.1 2 0
Grant WolframMiddle Reliever 96.83.97 1.47119.915 1.00000216 1.2 3 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Seth LugoStarter 423.41.54 1.0268.121 6.03112596 5.2 4 2
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 86.47.03 1.7197.05 2.04221343 0.5 1 1
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 77.21.25 0.69412.510 1.00000012 1.2 2 0

Game Summary

BAL wins 3-2

Cincinnati Reds @ Tampa Bay Rays

CIN 14-8 (3.55 RPG / 3.91 RA)
3 - 4
TB 12-9 (4.9 RPG / 5.19 RA)
TB WINS Target: CIN 2 - 4 TB Confidence: 73.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CIN00010020038
TB03001000x49

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TB Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
TJ FriedlCF 207812 0.154 040.267 5000 01 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 228823 0.261 6120.337 4211 00 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Matt McLain2B 207514 0.187 030.330 5210 01 0.400 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Sal Stewart3B 227922 0.278 7190.383 5201 02 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Tyler StephensonC 16499 0.184 250.305 4000 12 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 17523 0.058 000.125 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 MODERATE
Will BensonLF 14326 0.188 010.257 2000 21 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Spencer Steer1B 206814 0.206 350.257 3101 11 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Eugenio Suárez3B 227820 0.256 3110.333 4110 02 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 33 511 0.229

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Cedric MullinsCF 197111 0.155 280.208 4111 10 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Taylor WallsSS 11389 0.237 040.293 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Ben Williamson3B 195814 0.241 060.312 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 217817 0.218 3160.326 3201 00 0.667 0.333 0.500 0.667 OK
Nick FortesC 175518 0.327 170.373 4110 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Junior Caminero3B 218421 0.250 5100.340 4110 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jake FraleyRF 154410 0.227 120.292 3112 11 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 218428 0.333 040.356 4200 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Yandy Díaz1B 218328 0.337 3160.427 3000 12 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 329 44 48 0.281

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Rhett LowderStarter 422.33.63 1.1666.115 6.08441599 6.1 3 1
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 1111.14.86 1.2618.110 2.01003350 0.5 1 0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Drew RasmussenStarter 419.22.81 0.6779.420 6.073349137 5.0 3 3
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 98.14.44 1.23510.09 1.00001120 1.2 1 2
Griffin JaxMiddle Reliever 95.84.66 1.89710.97 1.01000114 1.1 2 0
Hunter BiggeMiddle Reliever 65.41.67 1.1113.32 1.00000012 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

TB wins 4-3

Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox

DET 12-11 (4.35 RPG / 3.61 RA)
7 - 3
BOS 9-13 (4.05 RPG / 4.64 RA)
DET WINS Target: DET 5 - 3 BOS Confidence: 79.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
DET10000000678
BOS00201000038

DET Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed2.1
Run Diff20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigleSS 217724 0.312 190.411 5112 01 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Gleyber Torres2B 218019 0.238 160.354 5000 00 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Colt Keith1B 196320 0.317 050.348 3110 20 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Riley GreeneLF 227719 0.247 1120.348 3212 20 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Dillon DinglerDH 196319 0.302 5180.380 5211 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kerry CarpenterRF 195613 0.232 4120.338 5112 03 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Matt VierlingCF 12348 0.235 140.250 4000 12 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Hao-Yu Lee3B 270 0.000 000.000 1010 30 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333
Jake RogersC 6172 0.118 030.150 4110 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 77 86 0.229

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyLF 207517 0.227 130.341 4000 11 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Willson Contreras1B 206819 0.279 4120.417 5222 01 0.400 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 207724 0.312 3100.361 4100 10 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 12309 0.300 050.447 4101 12 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Trevor StorySS 218817 0.193 2170.215 5100 00 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jarren DuranCF 166411 0.172 1100.254 3100 12 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 19649 0.141 070.236 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Marcelo Mayer2B 18529 0.173 130.254 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Carlos NarváezC 13449 0.205 000.222 3110 01 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 33 58 0.229

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack FlahertyStarter 419.34.20 1.4519.821 6.063336116 4.2 8 3
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 75.21.73 0.96212.17 2.01002241 0.5 1 0
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 97.71.17 1.1698.27 1.01000015 0.5 0 1

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sonny GrayStarter 420.14.48 1.2944.911 5.011175110 6.0 6 2
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 77.01.29 1.0009.07 2.01000023 0.5 1 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 88.02.25 1.25013.512 1.01000115 0.5 1 1
Greg WeissertMiddle Reliever 96.76.72 1.49314.811 1.05661038 1.1 2 1

Game Summary

DET wins 7-3

Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians

HOU 8-15 (5.26 RPG / 6.09 RA)
4 - 5
CLE 13-10 (4.13 RPG / 4.13 RA)
CLE WINS Target: HOU 4 - 6 CLE Confidence: 78.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
HOU03100000047
CLE20300000x57

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed6.2
Run Diff-20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos CorreaSS 207519 0.253 1100.345 5100 02 0.200 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 238127 0.333 10210.471 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jose Altuve2B 228425 0.298 380.404 3010 01 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Christian Walker1B 237920 0.253 4160.355 4310 01 0.750 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 186312 0.190 080.311 3001 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Taylor TrammellCF 8289 0.321 040.367 4110 01 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Yainer DiazC 166312 0.190 190.224 4113 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Dustin HarrisRF 120 0.000 000.000 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333
Brice MatthewsLF 12283 0.107 130.167 3000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 44 28 0.206

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 228720 0.230 180.299 4220 00 0.500 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 196916 0.232 5120.316 4110 01 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
José Ramírez3B 238319 0.229 6120.354 2001 10 0.000 0.250 0.400 1.000 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 196111 0.180 130.265 4223 00 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Rhys HoskinsDH 175210 0.192 150.333 4101 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
George ValeraLF 5144 0.286 020.286 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Juan Brito2B 11387 0.184 030.244 3000 01 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Bo NaylorC 14457 0.156 130.208 2000 10 0.000 - 0.250 -
Brayan RocchioSS 226717 0.254 3140.359 3100 00 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 307 55 26 0.233

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer ArrighettiStarter 16.01.50 1.16715.010 5.06551482 4.0 4 2
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 96.416.88 3.43816.912 3.01001239 1.0 2 1

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Slade CecconiStarter 419.25.16 1.4068.418 5.044427102 5.1 3 3
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 1111.04.09 1.27311.514 2.01000124 1.2 2 0
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 107.82.31 1.66715.013 1.01000017 1.2 3 1
Connor BrogdonMiddle Reliever 87.47.30 1.2169.78 1.01000015 1.2 2 1

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-4

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies

LAD 15-6 (5.76 RPG / 3.48 RA)
6 - 3
COL 9-13 (4.05 RPG / 4.5 RA)
LAD WINS Target: LAD 6 - 4 COL Confidence: 79.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAD000031002610
COL000300000310

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff-20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 207721 0.273 5110.396 4110 12 0.250 0.333 0.600 1.333 OK
Alex CallRF 5156 0.400 010.526 5202 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Will SmithC 186620 0.303 2110.356 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 186618 0.273 4120.319 5000 00 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Andy PagesCF 217629 0.382 5210.429 4322 10 0.750 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Miguel RojasSS 103110 0.323 010.333 5211 01 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Max Muncy3B 000 0.000 000.000 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333
Santiago Espinal2B 6142 0.143 020.143 4211 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Dalton Rushing1B 72210 0.455 5100.478 2010 20 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3710 66 44 0.270

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jordan BeckLF 14415 0.122 160.182 4100 10 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 206013 0.217 110.288 5200 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Hunter GoodmanDH 217419 0.257 580.337 5000 03 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 113410 0.294 050.385 5100 00 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 218119 0.235 160.271 3110 11 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Troy Johnston1B 186220 0.323 2100.364 4210 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Willi Castro2B 176013 0.217 180.277 3211 10 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kyle Karros3B 225712 0.211 130.352 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Brett SullivanC 10297 0.241 040.241 4102 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3710 33 38 0.270

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Justin WrobleskiStarter 317.02.12 0.7653.26 5.07332597 4.0 3 1
Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever 66.06.00 1.66715.010 2.01000027 0.5 1 1
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 108.21.10 0.6108.88 1.01001226 0.5 1 0
Will KleinMiddle Reliever 79.22.93 1.4139.810 1.01000117 0.5 1 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jose QuintanaStarter 27.36.16 2.0553.73 5.05331488 5.1 4 3
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 910.03.60 1.8005.46 2.03111043 0.5 1 0
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever 109.61.88 1.0427.58 1.01000013 1.0 0 1
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 612.70.71 0.78712.017 1.01222026 3.0 5 4

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-3

Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners

OAK 11-11 (4.14 RPG / 5.0 RA)
4 - 5
SEA 10-13 (3.91 RPG / 3.65 RA)
SEA WINS Target: OAK 2 - 5 SEA Confidence: 66.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
OAK101100001410
SEA00011000355

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Kurtz1B 217116 0.225 290.421 4221 11 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Shea LangeliersC 218426 0.310 6120.376 4200 11 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 OK
Carlos CortesDH 163710 0.270 160.372 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 228417 0.202 2150.295 5312 00 0.600 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jacob WilsonSS 219123 0.253 2100.261 5100 00 0.200 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 206417 0.266 040.342 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Max Muncy3B 217720 0.260 260.310 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 216813 0.191 270.267 4100 01 0.250 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Zack GelofCF 582 0.250 020.250 3111 10 0.333 - - -
TEAM TOTALS 3710 44 37 0.270

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 154710 0.213 160.383 3001 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Cal RaleighC 238814 0.159 2110.250 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 238618 0.209 170.313 4000 02 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Josh Naylor1B 218212 0.146 270.231 2121 20 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 238224 0.293 290.402 2010 11 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Luke RaleyDH 216721 0.313 5130.370 4113 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Dominic CanzoneRF 184712 0.255 290.321 3100 01 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Cole Young2B 237819 0.244 2110.344 3110 01 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Leo Rivas3B 17497 0.143 040.295 3100 00 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 285 55 39 0.179

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
J.T. GinnStarter 515.43.51 1.0396.411 6.04221691 4.0 4 2
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 106.810.59 2.64711.99 1.00000111 0.5 1 1
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 1210.13.56 1.9809.811 1.00000215 1.2 2 1
Justin SternerMiddle Reliever 1010.64.25 1.88711.914 0.01332019 1.1 3 0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emerson HancockStarter 423.22.33 0.7769.725 6.073324101 5.1 4 3
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 97.38.63 1.78117.314 1.00000212 1.1 3 1
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 85.40.00 0.7416.74 1.02000121 1.2 2 0
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 107.71.17 1.4299.48 1.01111025 1.2 2 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-4

Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs

PHI 8-13 (3.57 RPG / 5.38 RA)
1 - 3
CHC 12-9 (5.33 RPG / 3.9 RA)
CHC WINS Target: PHI 2 - 8 CHC Confidence: 87.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PHI10000000015
CHC00003000x36

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed6.1
Run Diff-28
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.2
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff22
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 218622 0.256 270.304 4110 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 217517 0.227 7140.376 4200 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Bryce Harper1B 217721 0.273 4110.364 3001 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Adolis GarcíaRF 217315 0.205 250.306 4000 03 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Brandon MarshLF 196818 0.265 2110.292 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Alec Bohm3B 207210 0.139 1100.212 3000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Bryson Stott2B 165812 0.207 030.270 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 195816 0.276 010.354 3100 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Rafael MarchánC 8271 0.037 120.071 3000 01 0.000 - 0.250 -
TEAM TOTALS 315 11 28 0.161

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 218327 0.325 3210.402 4100 01 0.250 0.250 0.400 0.500 OK
Michael Busch1B 207312 0.164 030.262 3010 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Alex Bregman3B 218620 0.233 290.309 3102 10 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Ian HappLF 197518 0.240 6110.352 4100 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 184416 0.364 3100.396 3100 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Michael ConfortoRF 13237 0.304 040.448 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Miguel AmayaC 10339 0.273 140.351 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 218118 0.222 150.276 2110 10 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 216913 0.188 4120.326 3111 01 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 306 33 47 0.200

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron NolaStarter 422.14.07 1.3129.824 5.053335103 5.2 7 2
Brad KellerMiddle Reliever 98.24.39 1.3419.99 2.00000121 0.5 1 1
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 66.14.43 1.3115.94 1.01001120 0.5 1 0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Colin ReaStarter 417.13.68 0.9947.915 5.04112499 5.1 5 2
Ben BrownMiddle Reliever 716.22.78 1.1118.315 2.01000130 3.0 4 1
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 96.62.73 1.36415.011 1.00000215 1.2 2 1
Riley MartinMiddle Reliever 66.10.00 0.65610.37 1.00000113 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 3-1

St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins

STL 13-8 (4.9 RPG / 5.29 RA)
6 - 4
MIA 10-12 (4.55 RPG / 4.59 RA)
STL WINS Target: STL 5 - 2 MIA Confidence: 79.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
STL000011004611
MIA40000000047

STL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 217618 0.237 3110.381 4000 11 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Iván HerreraC 217515 0.200 2110.378 5212 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Alec Burleson1B 218223 0.280 3150.368 5312 01 0.600 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 218225 0.305 8160.367 5110 02 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Nolan GormanDH 206714 0.209 3140.276 3100 11 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Masyn WinnSS 166314 0.222 180.319 4101 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Ramón Urías3B 12367 0.194 240.275 4221 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Thomas SaggeseLF 13439 0.209 020.277 4000 01 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Victor Scott IICF 195312 0.226 040.276 4110 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3811 66 27 0.289

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jakob MarseeCF 228413 0.155 040.280 4110 10 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Kyle StowersLF 132 0.667 000.750 4111 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Otto LopezSS 218027 0.338 3100.386 4110 01 0.250 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 228328 0.337 160.409 4000 01 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Liam HicksDH 216722 0.328 4190.373 4211 00 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Agustín RamírezC 217717 0.221 1100.299 4000 02 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Owen CaissieRF 196115 0.246 2130.284 3000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Graham Pauley3B 16478 0.170 050.204 4102 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Connor Norby1B 206717 0.254 270.346 3100 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 44 36 0.206

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael McGreevyStarter 421.22.55 0.8495.112 5.06441589 5.0 4 2
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 1211.40.00 0.43911.114 3.01001147 1.0 0 1
Gordon GraceffoMiddle Reliever 89.50.95 0.9475.76 1.00001017 2.1 2 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max MeyerStarter 419.24.22 1.3549.420 6.052225102 5.1 6 2
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 77.07.71 1.14312.910 2.02000228 1.2 2 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 89.23.91 1.0877.88 1.04440022 0.5 1 1

Game Summary

STL wins 6-4

Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels

TOR 8-13 (3.95 RPG / 5.19 RA)
4 - 7
LAA 11-12 (5.0 RPG / 4.52 RA)
LAA WINS Target: TOR 3 - 5 LAA Confidence: 67.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TOR01110001049
LAA20320000x77

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs6.4
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff22
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Davis SchneiderLF 12316 0.194 150.306 5100 01 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Ernie ClementSS 218626 0.302 050.310 5211 02 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 217826 0.333 1100.429 5000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Eloy JiménezDH 5165 0.312 010.389 5100 00 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 207717 0.221 380.294 4110 01 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.667 OK
Lenyn Sosa2B 4113 0.273 010.273 4101 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 186517 0.262 370.333 3111 10 0.333 0.250 0.400 0.500 OK
Myles StrawRF 13269 0.346 130.393 2000 21 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Tyler HeinemanC 11277 0.259 010.310 3211 11 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 44 46 0.250

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 239022 0.244 5110.370 4111 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Mike TroutCF 227718 0.234 7160.422 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 208118 0.222 2130.304 4221 02 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Jorge SolerDH 196916 0.232 5180.337 3010 11 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Yoán Moncada3B 196511 0.169 380.316 2113 20 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Jo AdellRF 239326 0.280 3140.323 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Josh LoweLF 18589 0.155 390.231 4000 02 0.000 0.250 0.400 1.000 OK
Logan O'HoppeC 206213 0.210 180.333 3110 02 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Adam Frazier2B 133310 0.303 140.425 3112 02 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 317 77 312 0.226

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dylan CeaseStarter 420.21.78 1.28714.332 4.05553697 4.1 7 2
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 108.48.57 2.26221.420 3.02220551 1.1 3 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 1010.20.88 1.1764.45 1.00000112 0.5 1 0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Reid DetmersStarter 421.53.77 1.11610.926 4.07331284 4.0 2 1
Jordan RomanoMiddle Reliever 85.43.33 1.11116.710 3.01001450 1.2 2 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 115.83.10 1.89714.09 1.01112022 3.0 3 3
Brent SuterMiddle Reliever 815.32.35 1.3078.815 1.00000013 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

LAA wins 7-4