MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

April 16, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (10 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
BAL @ CLE3 - 44 - 6CLE wins 6-461%enhanced_ml
COL @ HOU6 - 57 - 4COL wins 7-473%enhanced_ml
KC @ DET2 - 34 - 7DET wins 7-474%enhanced_ml
LAA @ NYY5 - 62 - 7NYY wins 7-276%enhanced_ml
SEA @ SD3 - 53 - 5SD wins 5-385%enhanced_ml
SF @ CIN2 - 41 - 5CIN wins 5-181%enhanced_ml
TB @ CHW7 - 27 - 6TB wins 7-6 (Extra Innings - 10)88%enhanced_ml
TEX @ OAK4 - 54 - 5OAK wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)79%enhanced_ml
TOR @ MIL5 - 63 - 7MIL wins 7-362%enhanced_ml
WAS @ PIT4 - 56 - 9PIT wins 9-6 (Extra Innings - 11)69%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Guardians

BAL 9-9 (4.28 RPG / 4.33 RA)
4 - 6
CLE 10-9 (3.95 RPG / 4.26 RA)
CLE WINS Target: BAL 3 - 4 CLE Confidence: 61.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BAL00002010148
CLE00400002x69

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardLF 187322 0.301 080.388 3000 12 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Gunnar HendersonDH 187717 0.221 6130.302 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Pete Alonso1B 186613 0.197 270.329 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Johnathan RodríguezRF 120 0.000 000.333 4300 00 0.750 0.333 0.500 0.333
Samuel BasalloC 13478 0.170 340.278 4000 02 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 155318 0.340 4140.345 4111 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Coby Mayo3B 12427 0.167 040.271 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 1.333 OK
Leody TaverasCF 123011 0.367 080.472 4220 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Blaze AlexanderSS 13419 0.220 010.289 4213 01 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 44 111 0.229

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 187117 0.239 160.316 4101 10 0.250 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 165815 0.259 5120.333 4100 10 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
José Ramírez3B 197315 0.205 380.301 4110 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 16509 0.180 130.268 3010 12 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
George ValeraRF 262 0.333 010.333 4113 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Angel MartínezLF 165316 0.302 290.362 4311 00 0.750 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Juan Brito2B 8276 0.222 010.276 2010 21 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Austin HedgesC 6207 0.350 020.391 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 195712 0.211 280.338 4211 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 339 66 56 0.273

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane BazStarter 315.34.71 1.6347.613 5.064435103 4.1 5 1
Ryan HelsleyMiddle Reliever 87.12.54 1.54913.911 2.00001128 1.0 2 0
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 98.30.00 0.36110.810 1.03221025 0.5 1 0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 317.20.52 0.9308.416 5.04221696 7.1 9 5
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 99.05.00 1.33311.011 2.03110341 1.0 0 1
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 96.82.65 1.91215.912 1.00000012 1.2 3 2
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever 72.60.00 2.69210.43 1.01110218 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 6-4

Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros

COL 6-12 (4.0 RPG / 4.5 RA)
7 - 4
HOU 8-11 (5.53 RPG / 6.0 RA)
COL WINS Target: COL 6 - 5 HOU Confidence: 73.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
COL000150100710
HOU03000100046

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed7.1
Run Diff-26
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Edouard Julien2B 143911 0.282 150.349 5221 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Tyler FreemanRF 9256 0.240 030.345 4221 10 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 186017 0.283 280.343 5212 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 186315 0.238 470.314 4112 12 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Mickey MoniakLF 124010 0.250 590.262 4101 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 176917 0.246 160.288 3000 12 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Troy JohnstonDH 144714 0.298 270.340 4210 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kyle Karros3B 184810 0.208 010.333 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 165010 0.200 110.273 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3710 77 38 0.270

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jose Altuve2B 186619 0.288 260.405 5000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 196321 0.333 7170.488 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 145011 0.220 060.339 4000 01 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Carlos CorreaSS 166117 0.279 190.362 4210 02 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Christian Walker1B 196620 0.303 4160.382 2120 20 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Joey LoperfidoLF 175214 0.269 050.328 4212 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Cam SmithRF 196619 0.288 3100.368 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Taylor TrammellCF 4134 0.308 030.357 3102 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Yainer DiazC 145511 0.200 190.237 4000 02 0.000 0.500 0.500 0.500 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 44 410 0.182

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 77.46.08 2.0276.15 5.04332392 1.1 3 0
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 67.02.57 1.5716.45 2.02111343 1.1 3 1
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever 87.62.37 0.9217.16 1.00001222 2.1 3 0
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever 510.70.00 0.65412.615 1.00000215 3.0 5 3

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan WeissStarter 510.37.86 2.23313.115 5.08660492 4.0 1 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 85.415.00 3.51920.012 2.02111443 0.5 1 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 76.61.36 1.51515.011 1.00001017 2.0 3 0
Kai-Wei TengMiddle Reliever 77.83.46 1.15412.711 1.00001016 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

COL wins 7-4

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

KC 7-12 (3.42 RPG / 4.16 RA)
4 - 7
DET 10-9 (4.42 RPG / 3.74 RA)
DET WINS Target: KC 2 - 3 DET Confidence: 73.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
KC01002010049
DET14000020x74

KC Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.3
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-11
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 187019 0.271 280.342 3010 20 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 186717 0.254 070.346 5203 01 0.400 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 186610 0.152 070.247 4200 11 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Salvador PerezDH 186710 0.149 220.208 5100 00 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Carter JensenC 164910 0.204 490.245 5000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jonathan India2B 14427 0.167 280.327 4000 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 165114 0.275 000.362 3221 10 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Michael MasseyLF 5122 0.167 000.231 3210 10 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 154113 0.317 260.391 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 44 66 0.250

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gleyber Torres2B 176415 0.234 140.351 2010 20 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 186420 0.312 180.421 2020 10 0.000 0.500 0.600 0.500 OK
Jahmai JonesDH 6100 0.000 000.000 3214 00 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333
Dillon DinglerC 154813 0.271 3120.364 4213 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Riley GreeneLF 186615 0.227 1100.320 3000 12 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Matt VierlingCF 9234 0.174 130.200 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 175110 0.196 050.369 3010 00 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 4111 0.091 110.167 3010 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Javier BáezSS 134413 0.295 150.319 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 284 77 55 0.143

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kris BubicStarter 318.02.50 0.83311.523 4.03554188 5.1 4 2
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 76.22.90 1.1295.84 3.01221247 0.5 1 1
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 76.24.35 1.2908.76 1.00000218 0.5 1 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Keider MonteroStarter 210.11.78 0.6938.910 6.074435125 5.1 5 3
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 64.22.14 0.95215.07 1.00001119 0.5 0 0
Will VestMiddle Reliever 85.58.18 1.63614.79 1.01002029 0.5 1 0
Drew AndersonMiddle Reliever 59.24.89 1.4138.89 1.01000019 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

DET wins 7-4

Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees

LAA 10-10 (5.25 RPG / 4.9 RA)
2 - 7
NYY 10-9 (4.53 RPG / 4.0 RA)
NYY WINS Target: LAA 5 - 6 NYY Confidence: 76.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAA00010001027
NYY00014200x78

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs6.1
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 197518 0.240 590.367 5000 03 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Mike TroutDH 186716 0.239 6150.393 3200 10 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jo AdellRF 197723 0.299 280.333 4110 02 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.667 OK
Oswald Peraza3B 144812 0.250 350.308 4000 03 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Vaughn Grissom2B 3103 0.300 000.462 3211 10 0.667 0.333 0.500 0.667 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 166514 0.215 2110.297 4101 00 0.250 0.500 0.500 0.500 OK
Travis d'ArnaudC 3101 0.100 000.100 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Josh LoweLF 14456 0.133 250.231 4100 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Bryce TeodosioCF 6172 0.118 010.167 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 22 39 0.206

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 18559 0.164 2110.324 4010 10 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 186816 0.235 7130.325 4111 12 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Cody BellingerLF 176215 0.242 160.338 2001 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Giancarlo StantonDH 176217 0.274 180.338 4202 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Ben Rice1B 165117 0.333 4120.477 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Amed Rosario3B 11309 0.300 260.333 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 186512 0.185 030.243 3222 10 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
José CaballeroSS 175911 0.186 180.238 4221 00 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
J.C. EscarraC 5110 0.000 010.083 3110 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333
TEAM TOTALS 328 77 55 0.250

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brent SuterMiddle Reliever 612.32.20 1.1389.513 5.055535106 0.5 1 0
Jordan RomanoMiddle Reliever 74.44.09 1.13614.37 2.03222047 1.0 3 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 94.73.83 2.12815.38 1.00000010 3.0 3 2

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max FriedStarter 427.31.98 0.7696.620 6.051126111 5.1 5 2
David BednarMiddle Reliever 87.25.00 2.08312.510 1.00000010 0.5 0 0
Camilo DovalMiddle Reliever 95.79.47 1.57911.17 1.02111126 0.5 1 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 128.72.07 1.95412.412 1.00000215 2.0 3 1

Game Summary

NYY wins 7-2

Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres

SEA 8-11 (4.0 RPG / 3.63 RA)
3 - 5
SD 12-6 (4.72 RPG / 3.72 RA)
SD WINS Target: SEA 3 - 5 SD Confidence: 85.4% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SEA01100000137
SD00010220x59

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SD Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs6.1
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff27
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brendan Donovan3B 155115 0.294 380.422 4100 02 0.250 0.500 0.600 0.500 OK
Cal RaleighC 197311 0.151 2100.241 4211 01 0.500 0.500 0.600 1.250 MODERATE
Julio RodríguezCF 197214 0.194 150.301 4000 02 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Josh Naylor1B 18729 0.125 270.203 3010 10 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 196720 0.299 170.420 3000 11 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Luke RaleyRF 175920 0.339 4120.391 4212 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
J.P. CrawfordSS 11316 0.194 040.419 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 15398 0.205 270.289 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Cole Young2B 196514 0.215 290.311 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 33 29 0.206

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ramón LaureanoLF 176519 0.292 4120.352 3202 21 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 176616 0.242 070.316 5100 01 0.200 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 176918 0.261 3130.320 5000 01 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Manny Machado3B 175410 0.185 290.361 4210 11 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 176719 0.284 3130.342 3010 12 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Gavin Sheets1B 165413 0.241 260.268 3000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Miguel AndujarDH 123711 0.297 020.350 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Luis CampusanoC 9258 0.320 150.346 2223 20 1.000 - - -
Jake Cronenworth2B 17578 0.140 130.246 4110 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 339 55 76 0.273

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis CastilloStarter 312.37.32 1.87010.214 5.041145101 5.2 5 2
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 76.210.16 2.09714.510 2.04443058 0.5 1 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 75.30.00 0.7556.84 1.01000115 0.5 1 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walker BuehlerStarter 312.25.16 1.3118.111 6.052206101 4.2 6 2
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 88.10.00 0.24722.220 2.01000224 0.5 0 0
David MorganMiddle Reliever 79.40.00 1.2779.610 1.01112127 1.2 2 0

Game Summary

SD wins 5-3

San Francisco Giants @ Cincinnati Reds

SF 7-12 (3.05 RPG / 4.32 RA)
1 - 5
CIN 11-8 (3.37 RPG / 4.05 RA)
CIN WINS Target: SF 2 - 4 CIN Confidence: 81.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SF00010000016
CIN20200100x512

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-14
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luis Arraez2B 176321 0.333 060.371 4000 02 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Willy AdamesSS 187018 0.257 360.307 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Rafael Devers1B 187016 0.229 260.280 4110 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Matt Chapman3B 187019 0.271 170.320 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 186113 0.213 170.275 4201 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Will BrennanLF 120 0.000 000.000 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333
Casey SchmittDH 134514 0.311 140.380 3000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Drew GilbertCF 120 0.000 000.000 3100 00 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333
Patrick BaileyC 14446 0.136 010.191 3100 01 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 11 011 0.182

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
TJ FriedlCF 166310 0.159 010.284 5321 00 0.600 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Matt McLain2B 176413 0.203 030.346 5000 03 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 187120 0.282 6110.362 4223 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Sal Stewart1B 186220 0.323 7170.434 3210 11 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 186416 0.250 390.324 4300 00 0.750 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Spencer SteerLF 165812 0.207 350.242 4100 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Rece HindsRF 270 0.000 000.000 3101 10 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 14443 0.068 000.146 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 MODERATE
P.J. HigginsC 000 0.000 000.000 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667
TEAM TOTALS 3612 55 210 0.333

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Landen RouppStarter 316.23.33 1.17310.018 5.095517101 4.0 4 3
Ryan WalkerMiddle Reliever 74.65.87 1.95713.77 2.03001243 0.5 1 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 63.610.00 2.77817.57 1.00000112 1.2 3 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chase BurnsStarter 316.13.35 1.30410.118 6.05110795 4.0 9 4
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 99.14.95 1.3198.99 2.01000325 0.5 1 0
Connor PhillipsMiddle Reliever 98.73.10 1.72410.310 1.00000113 0.5 1 1

Game Summary

CIN wins 5-1

Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox

TB 11-7 (5.06 RPG / 5.06 RA)
7 - 6
CHW 6-13 (3.16 RPG / 5.26 RA)
TB WINS Target: TB 7 - 2 CHW Confidence: 88.4% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
TB002102100178
CHW000320100068

TB Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff12
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.5
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-11
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chandler SimpsonLF 176324 0.381 040.409 5110 00 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Junior Caminero3B 176415 0.234 360.351 5312 00 0.600 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 15558 0.145 150.186 5000 03 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Yandy DíazDH 176524 0.369 3160.468 4211 11 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Ryan Vilade1B 8205 0.250 020.250 4123 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ben Williamson2B 164913 0.265 060.333 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jonny DeLucaRF 123510 0.286 290.306 4110 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Nick FortesC 144614 0.304 170.333 4001 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.000 OK
Taylor WallsSS 8258 0.320 020.370 3010 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 388 77 27 0.211

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Miguel Vargas3B 17589 0.155 170.296 5010 12 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 165912 0.203 120.299 5102 10 0.200 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 185610 0.179 590.365 3000 20 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Everson PereiraRF 6205 0.250 240.286 4310 11 0.750 - - -
Edgar QueroC 13416 0.146 000.239 3010 21 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Tanner MurraySS 7174 0.235 120.316 5223 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 16458 0.178 020.245 3111 10 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Derek HillCF 8164 0.250 000.294 4000 12 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Sam AntonacciLF 000 0.000 000.000 5100 00 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333
TEAM TOTALS 378 66 96 0.216

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Steven MatzStarter 316.03.94 0.9389.617 5.053342104 4.0 3 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 76.14.43 0.98410.37 3.02333365 2.0 1 0
Hunter BiggeMiddle Reliever 54.42.05 1.3644.12 2.01002165 0.5 0 1

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jordan LeasureMiddle Reliever 88.34.34 1.0849.89 6.076624111 0.5 1 0
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 2.01110233 1.2 3 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 12.18.57 1.9054.31 1.00000120 1.0 3 1
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever 20.390.00 20.00030.01 1.00000024 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

TB wins 7-6 (Extra Innings - 10)

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

TEX 10-9 (4.32 RPG / 3.68 RA)
4 - 5
OAK 10-9 (4.11 RPG / 4.63 RA)
OAK WINS Target: TEX 4 - 5 OAK Confidence: 79.2% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
TEX220000000047
OAK020000200156

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoRF 187223 0.319 390.388 5222 12 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Sam HaggertyLF 6102 0.200 000.273 2010 32 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Wyatt LangfordCF 156011 0.183 130.210 4100 11 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Jake Burger1B 187118 0.254 5150.284 3000 20 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Josh Jung3B 155212 0.231 030.298 5000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kyle HigashiokaC 7217 0.333 130.417 3202 10 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Andrew McCutchenDH 12276 0.222 140.250 5000 01 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Josh Smith2B 16539 0.170 040.254 5210 00 0.400 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Ezequiel DuranSS 13368 0.222 140.282 5000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 377 44 87 0.189

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeff McNeil2B 175415 0.278 030.350 5101 00 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Shea LangeliersDH 176921 0.304 6120.351 4011 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 175911 0.186 130.368 4101 11 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 186614 0.212 2140.316 5111 02 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jacob WilsonSS 177118 0.254 170.264 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Carlos CortesRF 12277 0.259 150.375 4111 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Lawrence ButlerCF 175510 0.182 260.250 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Austin WynnsC 5122 0.167 000.231 3110 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Darell Hernaiz3B 8163 0.188 000.235 3110 11 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 366 55 48 0.167

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack LeiterStarter 314.25.07 1.40813.321 5.04331178 4.2 4 2
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 78.00.00 0.5006.86 2.02223351 0.5 0 0
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 97.53.60 1.46710.89 1.00000110 1.1 3 1
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever 88.41.07 1.3109.69 2.00000359 1.1 0 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob LopezStarter 313.17.56 2.2147.611 5.054474122 5.2 7 1
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 96.610.91 2.42410.98 3.02000244 0.5 1 1
Elvis AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 95.87.76 2.0699.36 2.00001150 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

OAK wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)

Toronto Blue Jays @ Milwaukee Brewers

TOR 7-11 (3.78 RPG / 5.17 RA)
3 - 7
MIL 10-8 (5.06 RPG / 4.17 RA)
MIL WINS Target: TOR 5 - 6 MIL Confidence: 62.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TOR01000002037
MIL00214000x712

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff-22
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Davis SchneiderLF 10256 0.240 150.345 5000 01 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 166016 0.267 370.343 4310 00 0.750 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.DH 176120 0.328 170.446 3000 10 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Jesús SánchezRF 165014 0.280 2100.333 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Lenyn Sosa2B 242 0.500 000.500 3112 12 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Kazuma Okamoto1B 166113 0.213 240.294 4101 02 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 176217 0.274 3110.318 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Ernie Clement3B 177020 0.286 050.296 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Tyler HeinemanC 8186 0.333 000.400 4210 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 33 310 0.206

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon LockridgeCF 154312 0.279 050.354 5210 00 0.400 0.333 0.500 0.667 OK
Brice Turang2B 155617 0.304 3110.435 5000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
William ContrerasC 155918 0.305 2110.406 4110 01 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Gary SánchezDH 11307 0.233 590.395 3110 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Luis Rengifo1B 13476 0.128 020.180 3312 10 1.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Luis MatosRF 4123 0.250 000.250 4111 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Greg JonesLF 000 0.000 000.000 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333
David Hamilton3B 13357 0.200 030.378 4324 00 0.750 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Joey OrtizSS 134810 0.208 030.240 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3612 77 25 0.333

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Patrick CorbinStarter 14.09.00 1.7506.83 5.0127715109 5.0 4 2
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 97.44.86 2.02721.918 2.00001033 1.2 3 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 99.20.98 1.3044.95 1.00000010 1.2 2 1

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon SproatStarter 39.411.49 2.5539.610 6.041116114 4.1 3 4
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 55.07.20 2.0009.05 2.03222455 0.5 1 1
Grant AndersonMiddle Reliever 98.54.24 1.2949.59 1.00000011 0.5 1 1

Game Summary

MIL wins 7-3

Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

WAS 9-10 (5.63 RPG / 6.16 RA)
6 - 9
PIT 11-8 (5.0 RPG / 4.0 RA)
PIT WINS Target: WAS 4 - 5 PIT Confidence: 68.5% enhanced_ml
1234567891011RH
WAS0000040002066
PIT01300000023911

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed5.9
Run Diff-9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff15
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 187218 0.250 5140.379 5112 00 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Luis Garcia1B 000 0.000 000.000 5110 01 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333
Brady House3B 166416 0.250 270.304 4110 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Daylen LileLF 187821 0.269 060.305 4113 11 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
CJ AbramsSS 176022 0.367 6190.458 5000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jacob YoungCF 154913 0.265 270.294 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jorbit VivasDH 133311 0.333 020.425 4010 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Drew MillasC 9263 0.115 020.233 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 155311 0.208 050.288 4211 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 396 66 17 0.154

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake MangumRF 12358 0.229 010.289 6111 03 0.167 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 145313 0.245 090.286 5200 00 0.400 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Oneil CruzCF 187122 0.310 5160.380 5211 02 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 13516 0.118 020.196 4122 10 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Nick Yorke1B 134311 0.256 020.340 5111 02 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 166015 0.250 7150.375 4121 11 0.250 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Joey BartC 8223 0.136 120.240 5010 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 11377 0.189 050.279 5212 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Billy CookLF 241 0.250 000.250 4101 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 4311 99 211 0.256

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Foster GriffinStarter 315.11.79 1.1267.212 6.054415102 5.2 8 3
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 87.43.65 1.2167.36 1.00000112 0.5 1 1
Cionel PérezMiddle Reliever 87.23.75 1.2506.25 1.01000215 0.5 1 0
Mitchell ParkerMiddle Reliever 12.00.00 1.00022.55 3.05551366 0.5 1 0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braxton AshcraftStarter 317.02.12 1.00010.620 5.00000572 4.2 5 4
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 99.01.00 0.6676.06 2.04440039 0.5 0 1
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 109.20.98 0.76114.715 1.01000119 0.5 0 0
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever 89.81.84 1.12211.913 3.01221142 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 9-6 (Extra Innings - 11)