MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

April 15, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (3 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
NYM @ LAD1 - 41 - 6LAD wins 6-188%enhanced_ml
SEA @ SD1 - 42 - 3SD wins 3-287%enhanced_ml
TEX @ OAK3 - 43 - 4OAK wins 4-373%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers

NYM 7-11 (3.5 RPG / 3.94 RA)
1 - 6
LAD 13-4 (5.71 RPG / 3.35 RA)
LAD WINS Target: NYM 1 - 4 LAD Confidence: 87.5% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYM00001000014
LAD32000001x67

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.8
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-13
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.1
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff27
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Francisco LindorSS 187214 0.194 110.301 4100 13 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Luis Robert Jr.CF 165415 0.278 270.409 4000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Brett Baty1B 155512 0.218 070.211 4101 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Bo Bichette3B 187517 0.227 190.272 4000 00 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 154613 0.283 440.377 2000 22 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Carson BengeRF 15497 0.143 130.236 3200 10 0.667 - - -
Marcus Semien2B 186412 0.188 160.243 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
MJ MelendezDH 000 0.000 000.000 3000 12 0.000 - - -
Tommy PhamLF 130 0.000 000.000 3010 12 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333
TEAM TOTALS 314 11 711 0.129

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle TuckerRF 176215 0.242 1100.360 3220 20 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 177018 0.257 3140.307 4214 01 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Will SmithC 145115 0.294 280.368 3010 21 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 155416 0.296 3110.339 5000 03 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.500 OK
Max Muncy3B 000 0.000 000.000 3101 11 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.667
Andy PagesCF 176325 0.397 5200.433 3001 00 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.500 OK
Dalton RushingDH 4137 0.538 340.571 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Hyeseong KimSS 6144 0.286 010.421 3000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Alex Freeland2B 14428 0.190 120.261 2120 20 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 307 66 87 0.233

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Clay HolmesStarter 317.31.56 1.1566.212 5.065544111 4.2 5 2
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 55.00.00 1.40012.67 3.01114366 0.5 1 0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shohei OhtaniStarter 212.00.00 0.7506.08 5.021156118 4.0 4 2
Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever 66.06.00 1.66715.010 2.01001234 0.5 1 1
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 97.21.25 0.69410.08 1.01001119 0.5 1 0
Will KleinMiddle Reliever 57.21.25 1.25011.29 1.00000216 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-1

Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres

SEA 8-10 (3.89 RPG / 3.44 RA)
2 - 3
SD 11-6 (4.59 RPG / 3.59 RA)
SD WINS Target: SEA 1 - 4 SD Confidence: 86.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SEA00000200024
SD00010002x36

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SD Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff27
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brendan Donovan3B 144814 0.292 360.407 3110 10 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Cal RaleighC 186910 0.145 2100.231 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 186814 0.206 150.308 4111 03 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Josh Naylor1B 17679 0.134 270.216 4101 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 186318 0.286 170.408 4000 02 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Luke RaleyRF 165416 0.296 3100.356 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 14357 0.200 250.275 3000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Cole Young2B 186114 0.230 290.319 2000 01 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Leo RivasSS 13386 0.158 030.319 3000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 314 22 112 0.129

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ramón LaureanoLF 166017 0.283 4110.348 3100 11 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 166416 0.250 3110.314 3000 13 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 166317 0.270 2110.333 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Manny Machado3B 165110 0.196 290.368 4100 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Gavin SheetsDH 155011 0.220 260.250 3110 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Nick CastellanosRF 12357 0.200 050.263 3101 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ty France1B 6185 0.278 110.350 4110 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 16558 0.145 130.242 3112 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Freddy FerminC 10315 0.161 020.270 4000 03 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 306 33 612 0.200

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emerson HancockStarter 317.22.09 0.7569.919 6.0311410125 4.0 4 3
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 66.03.00 1.33313.59 1.01002233 1.1 0 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 75.30.00 0.7556.84 1.02220019 0.5 1 1

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Randy VásquezStarter 317.21.05 1.1059.919 5.02000675 4.1 3 2
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 88.10.00 0.24722.220 2.02221341 0.5 1 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 76.511.08 2.4628.36 1.00000218 1.2 1 1
David MorganMiddle Reliever 79.40.00 1.2779.610 1.00000110 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

SD wins 3-2

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

TEX 9-8 (4.0 RPG / 3.41 RA)
3 - 4
OAK 9-8 (3.88 RPG / 4.35 RA)
OAK WINS Target: TEX 3 - 4 OAK Confidence: 73.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TEX30000000036
OAK20110000x49

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff7
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoRF 176923 0.333 390.395 3000 12 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Corey SeagerSS 176112 0.197 4100.311 4111 01 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Wyatt LangfordDH 14569 0.161 130.190 4310 00 0.750 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Evan CarterCF 164810 0.208 240.321 4112 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Joc Pederson1B 15388 0.211 120.279 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Josh Jung3B 144912 0.245 030.302 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Josh Smith2B 15509 0.180 040.255 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Danny JansenC 12399 0.231 160.302 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ezequiel DuranLF 12338 0.242 140.306 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 33 39 0.182

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Kurtz1B 165511 0.200 130.380 4210 00 0.500 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Shea LangeliersC 166419 0.297 5100.348 4220 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Carlos CortesDH 11247 0.292 150.393 4202 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 176413 0.203 2130.292 4101 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jacob WilsonSS 166716 0.239 050.250 4000 01 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 165215 0.288 030.339 3000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Max Muncy3B 176319 0.302 250.343 4000 03 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 16519 0.176 260.250 3111 00 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Denzel ClarkeCF 16437 0.163 050.217 3100 00 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 339 44 14 0.273

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kumar RockerStarter 210.04.50 1.4007.28 5.09441283 4.0 4 3
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 78.00.00 0.5006.86 3.00000235 0.5 0 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
J.T. GinnStarter 410.33.50 0.9717.08 6.053336111 4.2 5 2
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 86.47.03 2.0319.87 1.00000111 2.0 3 1
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 108.83.07 2.15910.210 1.01000118 1.0 2 0
Elvis AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 95.87.76 2.0699.36 1.0000018 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

OAK wins 4-3