MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

April 14, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (13 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ BAL3 - 53 - 4BAL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11)63%enhanced_ml
BOS @ MIN6 - 73 - 6MIN wins 6-379%enhanced_ml
CLE @ STL4 - 24 - 3CLE wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)75%enhanced_ml
COL @ HOU6 - 45 - 4COL wins 5-479%enhanced_ml
KC @ DET3 - 52 - 5DET wins 5-267%enhanced_ml
LAA @ NYY4 - 54 - 6NYY wins 6-460%enhanced_ml
MIA @ ATL2 - 51 - 5ATL wins 5-168%enhanced_ml
NYM @ LAD1 - 51 - 7LAD wins 7-187%enhanced_ml
SEA @ SD3 - 52 - 5SD wins 5-282%enhanced_ml
SF @ CIN3 - 44 - 5CIN wins 5-473%enhanced_ml
TEX @ OAK3 - 41 - 4OAK wins 4-164%enhanced_ml
TOR @ MIL2 - 43 - 4MIL wins 4-375%enhanced_ml
WAS @ PIT4 - 73 - 4PIT wins 4-380%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Baltimore Orioles

ARI 9-8 (4.18 RPG / 4.65 RA)
3 - 4
BAL 9-7 (4.31 RPG / 4.12 RA)
BAL WINS Target: ARI 3 - 5 BAL Confidence: 63.5% enhanced_ml
1234567891011RH
ARI1001001000038
BAL0000011100146

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ketel Marte2B 166614 0.212 490.268 5201 01 0.400 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 155317 0.321 2110.403 5100 00 0.200 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 17548 0.148 140.284 5111 02 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jose FernandezDH 114012 0.300 270.300 5211 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ildemaro Vargas1B 103715 0.405 150.436 5100 00 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 155411 0.204 280.214 5110 01 0.200 0.250 0.250 0.750 OK
James McCannC 8204 0.200 030.238 5000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Tim TawaLF 11283 0.107 010.212 2000 20 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jorge BarrosaCF 11399 0.231 030.250 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 418 33 28 0.195

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gunnar HendersonSS 166716 0.239 6130.329 5201 02 0.400 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Taylor WardLF 166321 0.333 080.427 4000 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Pete Alonso1B 166113 0.213 270.314 4001 01 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Samuel BasalloC 12446 0.136 230.240 5000 03 0.000 0.333 0.500 1.333 OK
Dylan BeaversDH 134010 0.250 150.311 5211 01 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Leody TaverasCF 10259 0.360 050.467 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Colton CowserRF 12327 0.219 030.316 4011 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 134414 0.318 3110.326 3000 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Blaze Alexander3B 11358 0.229 010.289 4220 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 386 44 310 0.158

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Merrill KellyStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 6.02222793 5.0 5 2
Paul SewaldMiddle Reliever 10.10.00 0.0000.00 2.03220230 1.0 2 0
Ryan ThompsonMiddle Reliever 22.00.00 0.0004.51 3.01001183 0.5 1 0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trevor RogersStarter 319.01.89 1.0536.614 6.05220281 7.1 8 3
Ryan HelsleyMiddle Reliever 76.12.95 1.80313.39 1.02111029 1.2 2 1
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 87.20.00 0.41710.08 1.00000110 1.0 3 0
Grant WolframMiddle Reliever 65.33.40 1.13217.010 3.01001567 1.2 3 1

Game Summary

BAL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11)

Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins

BOS 6-10 (4.25 RPG / 4.69 RA)
3 - 6
MIN 10-7 (5.41 RPG / 4.53 RA)
MIN WINS Target: BOS 6 - 7 MIN Confidence: 79.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BOS12000000034
MIN00200400x69

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff8
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff11
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyLF 155712 0.211 130.328 3010 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 15527 0.135 060.224 4100 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 8195 0.263 030.481 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Willson Contreras1B 165617 0.304 3110.443 4101 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 166222 0.355 3100.403 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Trevor StorySS 166913 0.188 1120.194 3010 13 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Jarren DuranCF 135110 0.196 1100.293 4000 01 0.000 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Carlos NarváezC 11378 0.216 000.237 3212 01 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B 5121 0.083 000.154 2000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 MODERATE
TEAM TOTALS 314 33 212 0.129

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Byron BuxtonCF 156012 0.200 120.269 5000 03 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 11277 0.259 150.394 4212 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Luke Keaschall2B 176514 0.215 180.278 3210 10 0.667 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Josh BellDH 175615 0.268 3140.382 4210 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Matt WallnerRF 166213 0.210 360.279 3111 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Victor CaratiniC 144813 0.271 180.373 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Kody Clemens1B 9284 0.143 230.273 3113 11 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Brooks LeeSS 144611 0.239 290.286 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Tristan Gray3B 8226 0.273 2110.346 3110 10 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 339 66 47 0.273

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sonny GrayStarter 316.12.80 0.9945.610 6.086625129 5.2 5 1
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 66.03.00 1.33313.59 2.01002245 1.1 3 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mick AbelStarter 313.16.18 2.1378.913 5.02332695 4.0 1 0
Cole SandsMiddle Reliever 64.46.14 2.0458.24 2.02000229 0.5 0 0
Taylor RogersMiddle Reliever 75.45.00 1.85210.06 1.00000216 0.5 1 0
Anthony BandaMiddle Reliever 85.812.41 2.06910.97 1.00000213 0.5 1 1

Game Summary

MIN wins 6-3

Cleveland Guardians @ St. Louis Cardinals

CLE 10-7 (3.94 RPG / 4.12 RA)
4 - 3
STL 8-8 (4.31 RPG / 5.56 RA)
CLE WINS Target: CLE 4 - 2 STL Confidence: 75.2% enhanced_ml
12345678910RH
CLE0011010001410
STL000000300035

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed6.1
Run Diff-21
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 166216 0.258 160.343 5000 02 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 145015 0.300 5120.368 5000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
José Ramírez3B 176513 0.200 270.297 5211 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kyle Manzardo1B 14435 0.116 120.224 5000 03 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
George ValeraRF 000 0.000 000.000 4321 10 0.750 0.333 0.333 0.333
Angel MartínezLF 144715 0.319 270.385 5000 01 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Daniel Schneemann2B 133910 0.256 060.275 3201 10 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Bo NaylorC 10334 0.121 000.194 4100 00 0.250 - - -
Brayan RocchioSS 175010 0.200 280.344 4211 01 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 4010 44 27 0.250

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 166113 0.213 150.329 5100 04 0.200 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Iván HerreraC 165711 0.193 060.365 4000 12 0.000 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Alec Burleson1B 165916 0.271 2120.380 4000 00 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 166020 0.333 8150.394 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ramón Urías3B 9307 0.233 240.281 3010 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Masyn WinnSS 11407 0.175 010.327 4110 02 0.250 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Yohel PozoDH 5111 0.091 020.091 3213 00 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Thomas SaggeseLF 12399 0.231 020.302 4100 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Victor Scott IICF 154311 0.256 030.267 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 355 33 212 0.143

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joey CantilloStarter 313.52.67 1.33313.320 6.01001895 4.0 6 3
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 88.05.62 1.37511.210 1.02331029 1.2 2 0
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 85.83.10 2.06917.111 1.01000219 1.0 3 1
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever 52.40.00 2.08311.23 1.01000118 1.1 2 0
Connor BrogdonMiddle Reliever 65.23.46 0.76910.46 1.00000112 0.5 1 0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael McGreevyStarter 316.22.22 0.8025.610 6.073326112 4.0 2 3
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 88.10.00 0.4948.98 1.0000009 1.1 2 1
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 76.50.00 1.0776.95 1.01000015 1.2 3 0
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 66.32.86 0.9525.74 1.01000112 1.2 3 1
Gordon GraceffoMiddle Reliever 67.41.22 1.0816.15 1.01110010 1.2 2 1

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)

Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros

COL 6-10 (4.06 RPG / 4.44 RA)
5 - 4
HOU 6-11 (5.59 RPG / 6.29 RA)
COL WINS Target: COL 6 - 4 HOU Confidence: 78.8% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
COL00003002057
HOU02010001048

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.100
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed7.5
Run Diff-25
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Tyler FreemanDH 7206 0.300 030.364 3110 21 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 14468 0.174 110.255 5210 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 165413 0.241 250.328 5113 01 0.200 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Willi Castro2B 145011 0.220 170.278 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 165216 0.308 280.362 2010 21 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 156216 0.258 160.281 3112 11 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jordan BeckRF 11303 0.100 050.182 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Kyle Karros3B 16448 0.182 010.294 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Jake McCarthyLF 10294 0.138 010.219 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 55 57 0.206

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jose Altuve2B 176119 0.311 260.432 4000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 175618 0.321 6140.487 5301 00 0.600 0.667 0.667 1.000 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 124411 0.250 060.353 5100 01 0.200 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Carlos CorreaSS 145516 0.291 190.361 4000 11 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Christian Walker1B 176017 0.283 3130.368 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Cam SmithRF 176017 0.283 380.368 3010 12 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Joey LoperfidoLF 154413 0.295 050.360 4210 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Brice MatthewsCF 9223 0.136 130.208 3122 11 0.333 - - -
Christian VázquezC 7238 0.348 180.375 3101 12 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 358 44 57 0.229

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael LorenzenStarter 413.38.80 2.2566.810 5.053342105 4.2 5 2
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 67.02.57 1.5716.45 2.01001338 1.1 3 0
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever 87.62.37 0.9217.16 1.02110120 1.2 2 0
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 94.91.84 1.8379.25 1.00000112 1.2 2 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Colton GordonStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 5.063344122 4.1 3 1
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 74.318.84 4.18620.910 2.00000021 0.5 1 0
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 65.51.64 1.27314.79 1.01221125 0.5 1 1
Steven OkertMiddle Reliever 75.76.32 1.0539.56 1.00000216 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

COL wins 5-4

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

KC 7-9 (3.38 RPG / 4.06 RA)
2 - 5
DET 7-9 (4.38 RPG / 3.75 RA)
DET WINS Target: KC 3 - 5 DET Confidence: 67.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
KC01010000026
DET00203000x58

KC Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-6
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 166219 0.306 280.380 3000 10 0.000 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 165916 0.271 070.371 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Lane ThomasCF 10233 0.130 010.286 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Salvador PerezC 16599 0.153 220.219 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 16599 0.153 070.246 4111 01 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Starling MarteRF 4143 0.214 000.214 4310 01 0.750 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jonathan India2B 12387 0.184 280.340 3101 12 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Carter JensenDH 144210 0.238 480.283 3100 11 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 14429 0.214 140.327 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 22 311 0.182

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gleyber TorresDH 155612 0.214 140.348 3000 12 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Matt VierlingCF 8213 0.143 130.136 4320 00 0.750 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 165919 0.322 180.412 4112 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Dillon DinglerC 144411 0.250 3110.353 4223 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Wenceel PérezRF 270 0.000 000.000 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333
Riley GreeneLF 166015 0.250 1100.348 4100 02 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 154710 0.213 050.373 2000 11 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Javier BáezSS 113812 0.316 150.341 3000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Zach McKinstry2B 11387 0.184 150.244 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 328 55 38 0.250

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cole RagansStarter 310.26.18 1.76513.215 5.085516101 4.0 6 1
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 76.22.90 1.1295.84 2.00001227 0.5 1 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 65.25.19 1.1548.75 1.00001019 0.5 1 1

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Framber ValdezStarter 317.04.76 1.4716.412 6.052219116 5.2 4 5
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 42.24.09 0.90924.56 1.00000110 1.1 2 0
Will VestMiddle Reliever 74.510.00 2.00012.06 1.00000111 1.0 2 0
Drew AndersonMiddle Reliever 59.24.89 1.4138.89 1.01002031 2.0 3 1

Game Summary

DET wins 5-2

Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees

LAA 8-9 (4.88 RPG / 5.18 RA)
4 - 6
NYY 9-7 (4.75 RPG / 3.38 RA)
NYY WINS Target: LAA 4 - 5 NYY Confidence: 59.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
LAA20101000047
NYY400000002610

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-1
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff4
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 176817 0.250 590.370 5000 00 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Mike TroutCF 165813 0.224 4120.400 2120 21 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jo AdellRF 176821 0.309 170.347 4112 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Jorge SolerDH 176214 0.226 4170.324 4211 01 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 271 0.143 000.250 3101 00 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Logan O'HoppeC 154711 0.234 070.351 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Yoán Moncada3B 14457 0.156 140.345 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 12429 0.214 240.250 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Bryce TeodosioLF 5131 0.077 010.143 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 MODERATE
TEAM TOTALS 347 44 25 0.206

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Paul Goldschmidt1B 4123 0.250 130.400 5220 00 0.400 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Aaron JudgeRF 166014 0.233 6120.333 2110 20 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Amed Rosario2B 10268 0.308 260.345 4202 10 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Giancarlo StantonDH 155417 0.315 180.383 4111 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Trent GrishamCF 16488 0.167 290.344 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Randal GrichukLF 6130 0.000 000.071 4113 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333
Austin WellsC 14427 0.167 110.300 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
José CaballeroSS 15539 0.170 160.214 4210 02 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 14374 0.108 020.267 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3510 66 36 0.286

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Reid DetmersStarter 314.54.97 1.37910.617 5.07442593 4.0 1 0
Jordan RomanoMiddle Reliever 64.30.00 0.46514.77 3.00001145 0.5 1 1
Brent SuterMiddle Reliever 612.32.20 1.1389.513 0.13220015 0.5 1 1

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan WeathersStarter 315.32.94 1.43810.618 6.074413112 4.0 3 2
David BednarMiddle Reliever 76.25.81 2.41911.68 2.00001130 1.0 3 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 106.72.69 2.09016.112 1.00000113 2.1 3 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 6-4

Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves

MIA 9-8 (4.71 RPG / 4.35 RA)
1 - 5
ATL 10-7 (5.53 RPG / 3.18 RA)
ATL WINS Target: MIA 2 - 5 ATL Confidence: 68.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
MIA00000000116
ATL10200002x511

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff13
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jakob MarseeCF 176610 0.152 030.260 4000 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 176423 0.359 160.414 4101 10 0.250 0.250 0.400 0.500 OK
Agustín RamírezC 166015 0.250 180.348 5100 01 0.200 0.250 0.400 0.750 OK
Liam Hicks1B 164715 0.319 3160.370 2000 20 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Otto LopezSS 166019 0.317 270.364 4100 01 0.250 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Owen CaissieRF 144512 0.267 2120.320 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Connor NorbyDH 154712 0.255 250.379 3110 10 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Javier SanojaLF 123813 0.342 070.359 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Graham Pauley3B 12366 0.167 040.189 3000 10 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 11 64 0.182

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 176616 0.242 150.338 4211 11 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Drake BaldwinC 177021 0.300 5170.372 4110 01 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Matt Olson1B 176720 0.299 4110.382 4111 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Austin Riley3B 176214 0.226 080.324 4101 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 165210 0.192 040.300 4111 02 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 176619 0.288 370.333 4210 00 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Dominic SmithDH 133412 0.353 3110.378 3201 10 0.667 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Michael Harris IICF 155414 0.259 270.298 4100 02 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Mauricio DubónSS 165920 0.339 2110.381 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3511 55 28 0.314

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max MeyerStarter 314.23.80 1.4089.515 5.07331691 4.2 7 2
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 64.36.28 2.32618.89 2.01001135 0.5 1 1
Anthony BenderMiddle Reliever 85.68.04 2.32112.98 1.03220123 0.5 1 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Reynaldo LópezStarter 315.21.18 0.9877.713 5.02004180 4.1 5 4
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 55.20.00 0.5778.75 2.01000232 0.5 0 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 66.00.00 0.83310.57 1.02000020 1.2 0 0
Aaron BummerMiddle Reliever 73.67.50 2.22212.55 1.01112124 0.5 0 1

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-1

New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers

NYM 7-10 (3.65 RPG / 4.06 RA)
1 - 7
LAD 12-4 (5.94 RPG / 3.5 RA)
LAD WINS Target: NYM 1 - 5 LAD Confidence: 87.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
NYM10000000017
LAD02104000x79

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs7.2
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff33
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Francisco LindorSS 176812 0.176 000.291 4000 10 0.000 0.500 0.500 1.250 MODERATE
Luis Robert Jr.CF 155015 0.300 270.435 3111 20 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Jorge PolancoDH 135210 0.192 120.263 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Bo Bichette3B 177116 0.225 190.273 4200 01 0.500 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 144313 0.302 440.388 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Brett BatyRF 145212 0.231 070.222 3000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Mark Vientos1B 134110 0.244 150.273 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Marcus Semien2B 176112 0.197 160.254 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Carson BengeLF 14466 0.130 130.231 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 347 11 34 0.206

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 166016 0.267 5100.410 4111 02 0.250 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 165914 0.237 190.352 3211 10 0.667 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Will SmithC 134714 0.298 280.377 4111 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 166618 0.273 3130.324 4110 02 0.250 0.250 0.400 0.250 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 145116 0.314 3110.357 4101 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Max Muncy3B 000 0.000 000.000 4101 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333
Andy PagesCF 166025 0.417 5200.453 4110 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Hyeseong KimSS 5134 0.308 010.412 4112 01 0.250 0.333 0.500 1.333 OK
Alex Freeland2B 13419 0.220 120.289 2010 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 339 77 28 0.273

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nolan McLeanStarter 316.22.78 0.86411.120 6.097727121 5.1 10 5
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 55.00.00 1.40012.67 2.00000125 0.5 0 1

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Yoshinobu YamamotoStarter 318.02.50 0.8897.014 5.05112385 5.2 9 5
Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever 66.06.00 1.66715.010 2.01001134 0.5 1 0
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 97.21.25 0.69410.08 1.01000014 1.2 2 0
Will KleinMiddle Reliever 57.21.25 1.25011.29 1.00000010 1.0 4 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 7-1

Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres

SEA 8-9 (4.06 RPG / 3.41 RA)
2 - 5
SD 10-6 (4.62 RPG / 3.75 RA)
SD WINS Target: SEA 3 - 5 SD Confidence: 81.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SEA00000002026
SD11030000x58

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff21
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brendan Donovan3B 134514 0.311 360.418 2100 20 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Cal RaleighC 176510 0.154 2100.243 4211 00 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 176614 0.212 150.297 4000 03 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Josh Naylor1B 16638 0.127 270.214 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 175916 0.271 170.403 4111 01 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Luke RaleyRF 155115 0.294 3100.345 3100 11 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
J.P. CrawfordSS 10286 0.214 040.436 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 13347 0.206 240.289 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 1.333 OK
Cole Young2B 175814 0.241 290.333 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 22 38 0.182

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ramón LaureanoLF 155615 0.268 4110.339 3001 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 166215 0.242 060.319 4211 02 0.500 0.250 0.400 1.000 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 156013 0.217 3110.288 4000 01 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Manny Machado3B 154710 0.213 290.391 3100 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 155914 0.237 280.308 4210 01 0.500 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Gavin SheetsDH 144711 0.234 260.250 4223 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ty France1B 5144 0.286 110.375 3110 11 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Luis CampusanoC 7176 0.353 140.389 3000 12 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 15528 0.154 130.254 3000 00 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 318 55 38 0.258

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryan WooStarter 318.01.50 0.7788.517 4.075515104 4.2 9 4
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 66.03.00 1.33313.59 3.01001245 0.5 1 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 75.30.00 0.7556.84 1.00001123 1.2 3 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael KingStarter 316.23.33 1.2358.315 6.040033103 4.2 4 2
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 77.10.00 0.28224.119 2.02220435 1.1 2 0
David MorganMiddle Reliever 79.40.00 1.2779.610 1.00000113 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

SD wins 5-2

San Francisco Giants @ Cincinnati Reds

SF 6-10 (3.19 RPG / 4.5 RA)
4 - 5
CIN 9-7 (3.38 RPG / 4.38 RA)
CIN WINS Target: SF 3 - 4 CIN Confidence: 72.9% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
SF21100000049
CIN00013010x59

SF Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Willy AdamesSS 166216 0.258 250.313 5100 02 0.200 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Luis Arraez2B 155617 0.304 060.339 4210 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Matt Chapman3B 166218 0.290 170.343 4222 00 0.500 0.500 0.600 0.500 OK
Rafael Devers1B 166314 0.222 260.269 3201 10 0.667 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Casey SchmittDH 113814 0.368 140.429 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 165410 0.185 170.246 4210 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Heliot RamosLF 155813 0.224 060.250 3001 01 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Patrick BaileyC 13416 0.146 010.205 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jared OlivaCF 341 0.250 000.250 4000 03 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 359 44 18 0.257

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dane MyersCF 9206 0.300 010.300 5000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Matt McLain2B 156013 0.217 030.319 5000 01 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.667 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 166418 0.281 5100.361 3110 20 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Sal Stewart1B 165518 0.327 4110.449 3110 20 0.333 0.333 0.500 1.333 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 165813 0.224 280.297 4322 00 0.750 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Rece HindsRF 000 0.000 000.000 4212 00 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.667
Spencer SteerLF 14519 0.176 240.218 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Tyler StephensonC 11356 0.171 230.293 1100 30 1.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 12383 0.079 000.146 3001 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 MODERATE
TEAM TOTALS 329 55 75 0.281

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Robbie RayStarter 316.42.20 1.0379.918 5.074463128 5.1 6 4
Ryan WalkerMiddle Reliever 63.67.50 2.50017.57 2.02110235 0.5 1 0
Erik MillerMiddle Reliever 63.610.00 2.77817.57 1.00001013 1.2 3 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brady SingerStarter 311.28.04 2.14310.413 5.074416100 5.2 5 2
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 88.15.56 1.4818.98 2.01000128 0.5 1 0
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever 77.00.00 0.85711.69 1.01000016 1.1 2 0
Connor PhillipsMiddle Reliever 98.73.10 1.72410.310 1.00000116 1.0 3 1

Game Summary

CIN wins 5-4

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

TEX 9-7 (4.19 RPG / 3.5 RA)
1 - 4
OAK 8-8 (4.0 RPG / 4.56 RA)
OAK WINS Target: TEX 3 - 4 OAK Confidence: 64.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TEX10000000015
OAK00400000x49

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed2.9
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoRF 166522 0.338 390.403 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Wyatt LangfordDH 13539 0.170 130.185 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Corey SeagerSS 165812 0.207 4100.314 2111 11 0.500 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Jake Burger1B 166516 0.246 4110.279 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Sam HaggertyCF 582 0.250 000.250 4100 00 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Josh Jung3B 134511 0.244 030.306 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.500 1.333 OK
Andrew McCutchenLF 10236 0.261 140.292 4000 02 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Danny JansenC 11368 0.222 160.300 3000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Ezequiel Duran2B 11318 0.258 140.303 3000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
TEAM TOTALS 325 11 17 0.156

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shea LangeliersDH 156219 0.306 5100.338 4100 03 0.250 0.500 0.500 0.750 OK
Nick Kurtz1B 155210 0.192 130.373 2010 21 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jacob WilsonSS 156415 0.234 030.234 4110 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 1.000 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 166213 0.210 2130.279 3010 11 0.000 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Max Muncy3B 166019 0.317 250.349 4212 02 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Austin WynnsC 491 0.111 000.111 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Zack GelofRF 110 0.000 000.000 4301 00 0.750 0.333 0.500 0.333
Jeff McNeil2B 154815 0.312 030.365 4201 01 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.667 OK
Denzel ClarkeCF 15406 0.150 050.209 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 339 44 310 0.273

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
MacKenzie GoreStarter 316.12.80 0.87014.025 4.074435104 5.0 6 2
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 78.00.00 0.5006.86 3.00000339 1.1 0 0
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 86.50.00 1.2319.77 1.02000223 0.5 0 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jeffrey SpringsStarter 318.11.49 0.7737.515 6.03111294 5.1 5 2
Mark Leiter Jr.Middle Reliever 75.48.33 2.2228.35 2.01000435 0.5 1 1
Elvis AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 85.77.89 2.1059.56 1.01000114 1.2 1 0

Game Summary

OAK wins 4-1

Toronto Blue Jays @ Milwaukee Brewers

TOR 6-9 (3.8 RPG / 5.47 RA)
3 - 4
MIL 8-7 (5.33 RPG / 4.27 RA)
MIL WINS Target: TOR 2 - 4 MIL Confidence: 74.7% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TOR02001000039
MIL20200000x47

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff-25
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ernie Clement2B 156119 0.311 040.323 4100 00 0.250 0.500 0.500 0.500 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 145213 0.250 260.328 5202 01 0.400 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 155317 0.321 150.446 5211 00 0.400 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Jesús SánchezLF 144412 0.273 290.327 4000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Eloy JiménezDH 000 0.000 000.000 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 1.333
Nathan LukesRF 10262 0.077 020.138 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 MODERATE
Kazuma Okamoto3B 145411 0.204 230.283 3110 11 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 155415 0.278 290.328 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 7183 0.167 120.211 3210 11 0.667 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 33 27 0.250

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sal FrelickRF 14489 0.188 130.304 1010 30 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
William ContrerasC 135014 0.280 290.390 4100 01 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Brice Turang2B 134714 0.298 390.441 4000 01 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Gary SánchezDH 9226 0.273 480.429 4221 02 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Jake Bauers1B 144611 0.239 4100.300 3111 10 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Luis MatosLF 391 0.111 000.111 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 123610 0.278 1130.395 4101 02 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Joey OrtizSS 11419 0.220 030.256 4201 00 0.500 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
David Hamilton3B 11306 0.200 030.400 3000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 317 44 46 0.226

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kevin GausmanStarter 317.12.11 0.64313.726 6.074446126 4.0 6 2
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 87.22.50 1.38921.217 2.00000022 1.0 3 0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob MisiorowskiStarter 316.13.35 1.05615.728 6.083316116 4.0 7 3
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 44.02.25 1.50011.25 2.00001131 0.5 1 1
Grant AndersonMiddle Reliever 87.52.40 1.06710.89 1.01000012 1.2 3 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-3

Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

WAS 7-9 (5.88 RPG / 6.5 RA)
3 - 4
PIT 10-6 (5.12 RPG / 3.94 RA)
PIT WINS Target: WAS 4 - 7 PIT Confidence: 80.2% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
WAS00000030039
PIT00000000043

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed7.6
Run Diff-20
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff16
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 166518 0.277 5140.397 5313 01 0.600 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Luis Garcia1B 000 0.000 000.000 5000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333
Brady HouseDH 145614 0.250 260.311 4100 00 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 OK
Daylen LileLF 167020 0.286 050.324 3100 10 0.333 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
CJ AbramsSS 155518 0.327 5170.406 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jacob YoungCF 144513 0.289 270.319 3100 11 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Jorbit Vivas3B 11279 0.333 020.424 4210 01 0.500 0.333 0.500 0.667 OK
Drew MillasC 7223 0.136 020.269 4000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 134910 0.204 050.278 4110 02 0.250 0.333 0.500 1.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 33 27 0.250

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 166222 0.355 5160.429 4100 01 0.250 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 145415 0.278 6140.400 3000 12 0.000 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 166218 0.290 3120.375 4000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.667 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 155618 0.321 3130.403 4100 03 0.250 0.333 0.500 0.333 OK
Marcell OzunaDH 11433 0.070 000.167 3000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 MODERATE
Nick Gonzales3B 124512 0.267 070.312 3100 01 0.333 0.250 0.250 0.250 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 144110 0.244 130.360 3000 00 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 10335 0.152 050.256 3000 01 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
Joey BartC 7192 0.105 010.190 3000 02 0.000 0.333 0.333 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 303 40 112 0.100

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
PJ PoulinMiddle Reliever 97.64.74 1.7117.16 7.02000891 1.2 3 0
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 77.23.75 1.2507.56 1.00000212 0.5 1 0
Brad LordMiddle Reliever 611.56.26 1.5657.810 1.01001225 1.1 2 1

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mitch KellerStarter 318.01.00 0.9445.511 6.05000582 4.0 5 1
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 88.01.12 0.7506.86 1.03330126 1.0 0 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 98.21.10 0.85414.313 1.00002028 1.2 2 0
Justin LawrenceMiddle Reliever 86.411.25 2.18816.912 1.01000117 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 4-3