MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

April 12, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (8 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreWinnerConfidenceMethod
BOS @ STL5 - 45 - 2BOS wins 5-265%enhanced_ml
CHW @ KC2 - 14 - 2CHW wins 4-265%enhanced_ml
CLE @ ATL2 - 32 - 3ATL wins 3-266%enhanced_ml
COL @ SD2 - 30 - 3SD wins 3-066%enhanced_ml
HOU @ SEA6 - 53 - 4SEA wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11)66%enhanced_ml
PIT @ CHC2 - 14 - 1PIT wins 4-167%enhanced_ml
TEX @ LAD4 - 53 - 6LAD wins 6-366%enhanced_ml
WAS @ MIL4 - 54 - 5MIL wins 5-464%enhanced_ml
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Boston Red Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals

BOS 5-9 (3.79 RPG / 4.21 RA)
5 - 2
STL 8-6 (4.5 RPG / 5.07 RA)
BOS WINS Target: BOS 5 - 4 STL Confidence: 65.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
BOS000200210510
STL00000020025

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

STL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyDH 135011 0.220 120.316 5112 02 0.200 0.320 0.418 0.508 LARGE
Caleb Durbin3B 13445 0.114 050.188 5000 02 0.000 0.245 0.324 0.366 LARGE
Jarren DuranLF 11428 0.190 050.292 5110 01 0.200 0.243 0.336 0.426 MODERATE
Willson Contreras1B 144812 0.250 280.419 4322 00 0.750 0.257 0.352 0.444 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 145520 0.364 390.397 3000 13 0.000 0.258 0.324 0.484 MODERATE
Trevor StorySS 14618 0.131 190.141 3201 11 0.667 0.263 0.308 0.433 LARGE
Marcelo Mayer2B 13357 0.200 130.275 4200 02 0.500 0.217 0.267 0.388 OK
Connor WongC 5125 0.417 010.462 4000 02 0.000 0.206 0.275 0.267 LARGE
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 134013 0.325 150.386 4110 00 0.250 0.245 0.293 0.407 MODERATE
TEAM TOTALS 3710 55 213 0.270

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 145212 0.231 150.359 4000 01 0.000 0.231 0.359 0.308 OK
Iván HerreraC 14499 0.184 060.369 4000 02 0.000 0.269 0.360 0.429 LARGE
Alec Burleson1B 145012 0.240 1100.371 4000 01 0.000 0.285 0.346 0.449 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 145116 0.314 6130.386 4110 00 0.250 0.227 0.291 0.355 MODERATE
Nolan GormanDH 13419 0.220 280.327 3010 11 0.000 0.191 0.284 0.339 OK
Ramón Urías3B 8277 0.259 240.286 4000 01 0.000 0.245 0.299 0.423 OK
José FerminLF 000 0.000 000.000 3202 00 0.667 0.000 0.000 0.000
Thomas SaggeseSS 10339 0.273 020.351 3100 00 0.333 0.261 0.310 0.350 OK
Victor Scott IICF 133810 0.263 030.275 3100 00 0.333 0.220 0.302 0.296 OK
TEAM TOTALS 325 22 16 0.156

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brayan BelloStarter 27.39.86 2.7408.67 5.03000675 4.0 6 3
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 55.01.80 0.8005.43 2.02221033 0.5 1 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 66.03.00 1.33313.59 1.0000008 1.2 3 1
Greg WeissertMiddle Reliever 85.77.89 1.57917.411 1.00000010 0.5 1 0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andre PallanteStarter 210.01.80 1.3004.55 5.05220887 5.0 3 3
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 88.10.00 0.4948.98 2.02222243 1.0 0 0
JoJo RomeroMiddle Reliever 76.50.00 1.0776.95 1.03110125 0.5 0 0
Gordon GraceffoMiddle Reliever 56.31.43 1.1115.74 1.00000214 2.2 2 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-2

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals

CHW 5-10 (2.87 RPG / 4.93 RA)
4 - 2
KC 7-8 (3.27 RPG / 3.93 RA)
CHW WINS Target: CHW 2 - 1 KC Confidence: 65.3% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CHW00000004049
KC00000101025

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.2
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff-10
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

KC Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.7
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-9
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Miguel Vargas3B 14469 0.196 170.333 5000 00 0.000 0.253 0.339 0.405 MODERATE
Chase Meidroth2B 145311 0.208 120.288 4110 10 0.250 0.230 0.299 0.303 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 15488 0.167 470.317 3010 22 0.000 0.167 0.317 0.417 OK
Lenyn SosaDH 10285 0.179 030.179 5100 01 0.200 0.242 0.265 0.431 MODERATE
Edgar QueroC 11346 0.176 000.243 4210 00 0.500 0.267 0.324 0.367 LARGE
Colson MontgomerySS 15529 0.173 270.271 4313 00 0.750 0.228 0.304 0.502 MODERATE
Tanner MurrayLF 4111 0.091 000.091 4000 00 0.000 0.248 0.303 0.409 LARGE
Luisangel AcuñaCF 13429 0.214 020.244 4101 01 0.250 0.226 0.273 0.249 OK
Derek HillRF 7143 0.214 000.267 3100 11 0.333 0.216 0.293 0.318 OK
TEAM TOTALS 369 44 45 0.250

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 155819 0.328 280.394 4201 00 0.500 0.263 0.336 0.418 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 155715 0.263 050.338 4101 01 0.250 0.294 0.349 0.498 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 15559 0.164 060.250 4000 00 0.000 0.262 0.320 0.543 LARGE
Salvador PerezDH 15559 0.164 220.233 4100 01 0.250 0.205 0.262 0.420 MODERATE
Carter JensenC 13388 0.211 470.262 4000 00 0.000 0.265 0.342 0.551 MODERATE
Michael Massey2B 372 0.286 000.286 4000 01 0.000 0.245 0.269 0.316 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 144410 0.227 000.320 3000 11 0.000 0.141 0.236 0.294 MODERATE
Isaac CollinsLF 13387 0.184 130.311 2010 01 0.000 0.248 0.356 0.387 MODERATE
Kyle IsbelCF 123612 0.333 250.400 3110 00 0.333 0.262 0.310 0.369 MODERATE
TEAM TOTALS 325 22 15 0.156

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 66.11.48 1.31111.88 6.02110378 1.0 2 0
Seranthony DomínguezMiddle Reliever 21.116.36 3.6360.00 1.01001121 1.0 1 0
Jordan LeasureMiddle Reliever 22.14.29 0.9528.62 1.02110017 0.5 1 0
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever 20.390.00 20.00030.01 1.00000111 0.5 1 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Noah CameronStarter 210.21.76 1.1768.810 6.04001393 5.0 5 2
Lucas ErcegMiddle Reliever 76.22.90 1.1295.84 1.01001021 1.2 2 0
Matt StrahmMiddle Reliever 65.25.19 1.1548.75 1.04442135 1.1 3 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 45.11.76 0.98012.47 1.00000113 2.1 2 1

Game Summary

CHW wins 4-2

Cleveland Guardians @ Atlanta Braves

CLE 9-6 (3.8 RPG / 3.6 RA)
2 - 3
ATL 9-6 (5.13 RPG / 2.87 RA)
ATL WINS Target: CLE 2 - 3 ATL Confidence: 66.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
CLE01001000027
ATL10010000139

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.8
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff26
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Angel MartínezLF 123813 0.342 160.419 5101 03 0.200 0.194 0.280 0.277 LARGE
Chase DeLauterRF 134813 0.271 5120.333 5200 01 0.400 0.259 0.339 0.593 OK
José Ramírez3B 155710 0.175 270.277 4200 10 0.500 0.282 0.362 0.498 LARGE
David FryC 9163 0.188 000.316 3000 12 0.000 0.174 0.219 0.372 OK
Rhys Hoskins1B 11358 0.229 040.341 4110 00 0.250 0.235 0.334 0.407 OK
Kyle ManzardoDH 13394 0.103 120.222 2000 11 0.000 0.245 0.321 0.457 LARGE
Juan Brito2B 4145 0.357 010.438 4101 00 0.250 0.248 0.303 0.409 MODERATE
Daniel SchneemannCF 11306 0.200 040.226 4000 01 0.000 0.148 0.188 0.246 MODERATE
Brayan RocchioSS 15438 0.186 160.340 3010 10 0.000 0.257 0.310 0.401 MODERATE
TEAM TOTALS 347 22 48 0.206

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 155813 0.224 140.313 5100 03 0.200 0.280 0.403 0.495 MODERATE
Drake BaldwinC 156120 0.328 5160.397 3010 10 0.000 0.263 0.337 0.457 OK
Matt Olson1B 155716 0.281 4100.379 4200 02 0.500 0.271 0.362 0.483 OK
Austin Riley3B 155211 0.212 040.328 4011 00 0.000 0.254 0.306 0.401 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 14468 0.174 030.283 4201 00 0.500 0.219 0.321 0.373 MODERATE
Ozzie Albies2B 155916 0.271 360.312 4000 02 0.000 0.241 0.305 0.367 OK
Dominic SmithDH 112910 0.345 280.387 4210 00 0.500 0.298 0.345 0.447 OK
Mauricio DubónCF 145317 0.321 290.345 4101 00 0.250 0.255 0.291 0.409 MODERATE
Jorge MateoSS 5113 0.273 120.333 4100 03 0.250 0.205 0.252 0.375 MODERATE
TEAM TOTALS 369 33 110 0.250

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner BibeeStarter 313.23.41 1.3649.514 6.073317112 5.0 5 1
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 77.06.43 1.42912.910 1.01000215 1.2 2 1
Shawn ArmstrongMiddle Reliever 85.83.10 2.06917.111 1.01000010 1.1 3 1
Connor BrogdonMiddle Reliever 65.23.46 0.76910.46 1.00000132 0.5 1 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris SaleStarter 316.03.94 0.8759.016 5.052243106 5.2 6 2
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 55.20.00 0.5778.75 2.02000233 1.2 0 0
Robert SuarezMiddle Reliever 66.00.00 0.83310.57 1.00000115 1.1 3 0
Aaron BummerMiddle Reliever 62.60.00 1.53810.43 1.00000227 1.0 2 1

Game Summary

ATL wins 3-2

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres

COL 6-9 (4.2 RPG / 4.27 RA)
0 - 3
SD 9-6 (4.47 RPG / 3.87 RA)
SD WINS Target: COL 2 - 3 SD Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
COL00000000006
SD10001001x39

COL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff22
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Edouard Julien2B 123211 0.344 150.400 4100 01 0.250 0.263 0.346 0.374 MODERATE
Tyler FreemanRF 6166 0.375 030.444 4200 00 0.500 0.246 0.314 0.300 MODERATE
Mickey MoniakLF 9309 0.300 590.312 4000 01 0.000 0.271 0.289 0.493 OK
Hunter GoodmanDH 155112 0.235 250.316 4100 00 0.250 0.276 0.320 0.549 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 154816 0.333 280.389 4000 01 0.000 0.248 0.303 0.409 MODERATE
Ezequiel TovarSS 146016 0.267 160.279 4000 01 0.000 0.255 0.292 0.405 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 13448 0.182 110.250 3100 00 0.333 0.229 0.272 0.368 MODERATE
Brett SullivanC 7226 0.273 020.273 3000 00 0.000 0.248 0.303 0.409 OK
Kyle Karros3B 15418 0.195 010.312 3100 01 0.333 0.219 0.309 0.264 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 00 05 0.182

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ramón LaureanoLF 145214 0.269 390.333 4211 00 0.500 0.280 0.341 0.511 OK
Fernando Tatis Jr.2B 155713 0.228 060.313 3000 11 0.000 0.265 0.364 0.437 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 145711 0.193 2100.270 4000 01 0.000 0.257 0.313 0.453 MODERATE
Manny Machado3B 14469 0.196 270.367 3110 11 0.333 0.272 0.333 0.459 MODERATE
Xander BogaertsSS 145813 0.224 280.262 4201 01 0.500 0.260 0.322 0.389 OK
Nick CastellanosDH 11317 0.226 050.294 4100 02 0.250 0.242 0.290 0.386 OK
Ty France1B 4111 0.091 000.167 4101 00 0.250 0.243 0.307 0.336 LARGE
Bryce JohnsonRF 481 0.125 010.222 4100 01 0.250 0.319 0.364 0.403 LARGE
Freddy FerminC 9295 0.172 010.273 3110 11 0.333 0.248 0.297 0.337 LARGE
TEAM TOTALS 339 33 38 0.273

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle FreelandStarter 315.22.37 1.1187.713 5.03222690 5.1 5 3
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 56.03.00 1.6676.04 2.04000133 0.5 1 1
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever 76.61.36 0.7588.26 1.02111124 1.2 0 1

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick PivettaStarter 313.05.54 1.38513.820 5.04000370 5.1 5 2
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 77.10.00 0.28224.119 2.00000020 1.1 2 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 65.513.09 2.9098.25 1.02000020 1.1 1 1
David MorganMiddle Reliever 68.20.00 1.3416.66 1.00000214 1.2 2 0

Game Summary

SD wins 3-0

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

HOU 6-9 (6.13 RPG / 6.33 RA)
3 - 4
SEA 6-9 (3.8 RPG / 3.67 RA)
SEA WINS Target: HOU 6 - 5 SEA Confidence: 65.6% enhanced_ml
1234567891011RH
HOU03000000000311
SEA3000000000145

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs6.2
Avg Allowed6.9
Run Diff-7
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-8
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jose Altuve2B 155316 0.302 260.439 5100 00 0.200 0.236 0.300 0.404 MODERATE
Yordan AlvarezDH 155018 0.360 6140.515 6100 03 0.167 0.293 0.404 0.516 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 10368 0.222 060.349 4200 01 0.500 0.255 0.352 0.432 OK
Christian Walker1B 155417 0.315 3130.393 5110 01 0.200 0.241 0.302 0.432 MODERATE
Cam SmithRF 155316 0.302 380.393 4010 12 0.000 0.243 0.321 0.379 OK
Joey LoperfidoLF 134012 0.300 050.370 5310 00 0.600 0.311 0.380 0.436 OK
Yainer DiazC 11459 0.200 070.245 5100 01 0.200 0.264 0.288 0.423 MODERATE
Taylor TrammellCF 142 0.500 030.600 5000 01 0.000 0.207 0.312 0.347 LARGE
Nick AllenSS 6113 0.273 000.385 5203 01 0.400 0.224 0.290 0.252 OK
TEAM TOTALS 4411 33 110 0.250

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brendan Donovan3B 113812 0.316 350.422 5210 10 0.400 0.293 0.370 0.458 OK
Cal RaleighC 15558 0.145 2100.250 2010 21 0.000 0.255 0.365 0.607 LARGE
Julio RodríguezCF 155810 0.172 140.262 4021 11 0.000 0.264 0.319 0.471 LARGE
Josh Naylor1B 14566 0.107 020.180 5000 00 0.000 0.292 0.349 0.461 LARGE
Randy ArozarenaLF 155113 0.255 160.397 5102 01 0.200 0.240 0.335 0.417 OK
Luke RaleyRF 13429 0.214 370.283 3101 11 0.333 0.189 0.298 0.287 OK
J.P. CrawfordSS 8235 0.217 040.419 5100 01 0.200 0.233 0.300 0.348 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 12317 0.226 240.294 5000 00 0.000 0.288 0.342 0.450 MODERATE
Cole Young2B 155214 0.269 280.345 3000 20 0.000 0.216 0.310 0.305 OK
TEAM TOTALS 375 44 75 0.135

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cody BoltonStarter 27.13.80 1.26812.710 5.034453114 4.0 1 2
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 63.324.55 4.84824.59 2.00000224 0.5 1 1
Bryan KingMiddle Reliever 65.51.64 1.27314.79 1.00000013 0.5 1 1
Steven OkertMiddle Reliever 75.76.32 1.0539.56 3.02002068 0.5 1 1

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan GilbertStarter 316.25.56 1.29610.018 5.07331592 4.1 6 2
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 66.03.00 1.33313.59 2.00000229 0.5 0 0
Matt BrashMiddle Reliever 65.20.00 0.7696.94 1.00000218 0.5 1 0
Gabe SpeierMiddle Reliever 75.33.40 1.13210.26 3.04000164 0.5 1 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

PIT 9-5 (4.29 RPG / 3.64 RA)
4 - 1
CHC 6-8 (4.21 RPG / 3.57 RA)
PIT WINS Target: PIT 2 - 1 CHC Confidence: 67.0% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
PIT200000020411
CHC10000000016

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Oneil CruzCF 145519 0.345 4120.400 5110 01 0.200 0.215 0.308 0.403 MODERATE
Brandon Lowe2B 124510 0.222 340.352 5000 01 0.000 0.254 0.311 0.476 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 145414 0.259 380.349 5112 02 0.200 0.272 0.372 0.456 OK
Ryan O'HearnRF 134715 0.319 3120.414 4310 00 0.750 0.275 0.362 0.419 OK
Nick Yorke3B 92911 0.379 020.457 4110 00 0.250 0.276 0.339 0.367 MODERATE
Marcell OzunaDH 10392 0.051 000.159 4100 00 0.250 0.210 0.334 0.359 LARGE
Spencer Horwitz1B 12348 0.235 020.341 4201 01 0.500 0.269 0.352 0.420 OK
Konnor GriffinSS 8264 0.154 040.233 4201 01 0.500 0.250 0.320 0.420 LARGE
Joey BartC 6152 0.133 010.235 3000 11 0.000 0.243 0.350 0.330 LARGE
TEAM TOTALS 3811 44 17 0.289

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nico Hoerner2B 145216 0.308 1100.422 4110 00 0.250 0.322 0.365 0.430 OK
Moisés BallesterosDH 12318 0.258 150.314 4000 01 0.000 0.275 0.356 0.418 OK
Alex Bregman3B 145812 0.207 240.281 4100 00 0.250 0.265 0.353 0.445 MODERATE
Ian HappLF 124810 0.208 470.309 4201 00 0.500 0.237 0.336 0.420 OK
Seiya SuzukiRF 272 0.286 000.375 4000 02 0.000 0.245 0.323 0.483 OK
Carson KellyC 113410 0.294 020.415 3200 01 0.667 0.234 0.297 0.369 MODERATE
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 145512 0.218 140.259 4000 01 0.000 0.247 0.286 0.474 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 14477 0.149 160.281 3000 00 0.000 0.242 0.299 0.413 LARGE
Matt Shaw1B 13389 0.237 260.268 3000 01 0.000 0.220 0.333 0.390 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 11 06 0.182

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bubba ChandlerStarter 28.23.29 1.82911.010 6.06110584 4.0 2 1
Dennis SantanaMiddle Reliever 88.01.12 0.7506.86 1.0000009 0.5 1 1
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 98.21.10 0.85414.313 1.00000012 0.5 0 0
Justin LawrenceMiddle Reliever 75.411.67 2.03716.710 1.00000110 0.5 1 1

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jameson TaillonStarter 210.22.65 1.2756.27 5.06221392 5.1 5 4
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever 44.00.00 1.0006.83 2.01000227 1.1 3 1
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 64.44.09 1.59112.36 1.04220026 0.5 1 0
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 65.25.19 2.11510.46 1.00000214 2.0 2 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 4-1

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Dodgers

TEX 7-7 (3.86 RPG / 3.79 RA)
3 - 6
LAD 11-3 (6.36 RPG / 3.64 RA)
LAD WINS Target: TEX 4 - 5 LAD Confidence: 66.1% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
TEX00102000036
LAD30200100x610

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-6
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs7.1
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff32
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoRF 145520 0.364 370.435 5112 02 0.200 0.273 0.334 0.475 MODERATE
Evan CarterCF 13409 0.225 130.311 5201 01 0.400 0.244 0.337 0.389 OK
Corey SeagerSS 145011 0.220 4100.317 4000 00 0.000 0.265 0.366 0.484 MODERATE
Jake Burger1B 145613 0.232 270.259 4100 01 0.250 0.235 0.267 0.417 OK
Joc PedersonDH 12284 0.143 120.219 3100 01 0.333 0.205 0.308 0.379 LARGE
Danny JansenC 10348 0.235 160.257 3000 11 0.000 0.217 0.315 0.398 OK
Josh Smith2B 13416 0.146 010.239 4000 00 0.000 0.207 0.304 0.285 LARGE
Josh Jung3B 11388 0.211 010.250 3000 02 0.000 0.248 0.290 0.377 OK
Ezequiel DuranLF 9256 0.240 140.240 2120 10 0.500 0.243 0.270 0.308 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 33 28 0.182

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 145315 0.283 490.412 4110 02 0.250 0.000 0.000 0.000
Kyle TuckerRF 145213 0.250 180.355 5000 01 0.000 0.264 0.375 0.447 OK
Andy PagesCF 145223 0.442 4170.482 3220 11 0.667 0.204 0.238 0.367 LARGE
Freddie Freeman1B 145815 0.259 3130.317 4224 00 0.500 0.289 0.366 0.494 OK
Max Muncy3B 000 0.000 000.000 4000 00 0.000 0.237 0.274 0.416
Alex Freeland2B 12389 0.237 120.293 3100 10 0.333 0.205 0.292 0.328 OK
Dalton RushingC 396 0.667 340.700 3101 10 0.333 0.230 0.283 0.401 LARGE
Alex CallLF 394 0.444 010.545 4000 01 0.000 0.262 0.358 0.373 LARGE
Hyeseong KimSS 4114 0.364 010.467 4311 00 0.750 0.285 0.326 0.390 MODERATE
TEAM TOTALS 3410 66 35 0.294

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob deGromStarter 29.23.91 0.87012.713 5.09661291 4.0 6 1
Jakob JunisMiddle Reliever 67.00.00 0.4295.14 2.01002141 1.0 2 0
Cole WinnMiddle Reliever 75.40.00 1.29610.06 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Roki SasakiStarter 29.07.00 1.5569.09 6.063326120 4.0 4 2
Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever 66.06.00 1.66715.010 1.00000017 0.5 1 1
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 86.21.45 0.64511.68 1.00000013 1.0 2 0
Will KleinMiddle Reliever 45.21.73 1.1548.75 1.00000217 0.5 0 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-3

Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers

WAS 6-8 (5.79 RPG / 5.86 RA)
4 - 5
MIL 8-6 (5.29 RPG / 4.0 RA)
MIL WINS Target: WAS 4 - 5 MIL Confidence: 63.6% enhanced_ml
123456789RH
WAS020000020410
MIL03000001156

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed6.3
Run Diff-13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 145916 0.271 4130.377 4201 11 0.500 0.243 0.321 0.438 OK
Luis Garcia1B 000 0.000 000.000 5000 01 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Brady HouseDH 135113 0.255 250.321 5000 01 0.000 0.237 0.264 0.340 OK
Daylen LileLF 146116 0.262 050.308 4210 12 0.500 0.342 0.385 0.587 MODERATE
CJ AbramsSS 134915 0.306 4150.404 5220 00 0.400 0.261 0.323 0.444 OK
Jacob YoungCF 123610 0.278 150.316 4101 01 0.250 0.236 0.298 0.303 OK
Jorbit Vivas3B 9217 0.333 020.423 4101 01 0.250 0.264 0.378 0.300 MODERATE
Drew MillasC 6203 0.150 020.292 4111 01 0.250 0.261 0.338 0.362 LARGE
Nasim Nuñez2B 11419 0.220 030.304 2100 20 0.500 0.228 0.299 0.350 OK
TEAM TOTALS 3710 44 48 0.270

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP ABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brice Turang2B 124311 0.256 170.407 3111 10 0.333 0.280 0.351 0.423 OK
William ContrerasC 124613 0.283 290.389 4000 01 0.000 0.266 0.343 0.442 OK
Christian YelichDH 144916 0.327 1100.389 3100 10 0.333 0.258 0.341 0.429 MODERATE
Garrett MitchellCF 11329 0.281 1130.410 4000 01 0.000 0.230 0.333 0.350 OK
Jake Bauers1B 13429 0.214 390.283 4000 01 0.000 0.271 0.383 0.429 MODERATE
Sal FrelickRF 13449 0.205 130.327 4222 00 0.500 0.270 0.332 0.389 MODERATE
Brandon LockridgeLF 12349 0.265 040.342 3110 11 0.333 0.246 0.301 0.311 OK
David Hamilton3B 10276 0.222 030.432 4112 00 0.250 0.203 0.305 0.306 OK
Joey OrtizSS 10379 0.243 030.282 4000 01 0.000 0.239 0.277 0.348 OK
TEAM TOTALS 336 55 35 0.182

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zack LittellStarter 210.03.60 1.5006.37 5.04441282 5.2 3 3
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 77.23.75 1.2507.56 2.00001129 1.2 3 0
Cole HenryMiddle Reliever 66.34.29 1.58711.48 1.01111122 1.1 2 1
Paxton SchultzMiddle Reliever 22.00.00 1.5009.02 1.01000146 2.0 4 1

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon WoodruffStarter 210.26.18 1.3738.810 5.04223489 4.2 6 2
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 44.02.25 1.50011.25 2.01000334 1.1 2 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 54.22.14 1.19012.96 1.04220121 1.0 2 0
Grant AndersonMiddle Reliever 87.52.40 1.06710.89 1.01001025 0.5 0 1

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-4