MLB Predictions — April 11, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Winner	Confidence	Method
HOU @ SEA	4 - 5	4 - 8	SEA wins 8-4	65%	enhanced_ml

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

HOU 6-8 (6.07 RPG / 6.21 RA)

4 - 8

SEA 5-9 (3.5 RPG / 3.43 RA)

SEA WINS Target: HOU 4 - 5 SEA Confidence: 64.9% enhanced_ml

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	7
SEA	1	0	0	2	0	0	3	2	x	8	8

Win%0.400

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed6.2

Run Diff1

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

Win%0.300

Avg Runs2.7

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-8

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game							Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	9	40	10	0.250	0	0	0.302	3	2	1	0	0	0	0.667	0.300	0.359	0.467	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	14	44	15	0.341	5	13	0.516	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.287	0.402	0.498	OK
Isaac Paredes	1B	9	31	7	0.226	0	5	0.368	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.255	0.352	0.432	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	14	49	15	0.306	2	6	0.443	4	1	0	2	0	0	0.250	0.236	0.300	0.404	MODERATE
Carlos Correa	3B	12	46	12	0.261	1	9	0.346	3	0	0	1	0	2	0.000	0.294	0.356	0.432	OK
Joey Loperfido	LF	12	36	10	0.278	0	5	0.341	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.299	0.364	0.415	OK
Cam Smith	RF	14	48	12	0.250	3	6	0.357	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.237	0.317	0.370	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	10	40	9	0.225	0	7	0.273	3	0	0	1	0	1	0.000	0.264	0.288	0.423	OK
Taylor Trammell	CF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.197	0.301	0.333
TEAM TOTALS									32	7	4	4	1	7	0.219

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game							Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	SS	7	20	3	0.150	0	1	0.346	4	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.233	0.300	0.348	LARGE
Cal Raleigh	C	14	52	7	0.135	1	7	0.250	5	1	0	2	0	1	0.200	0.255	0.365	0.607	LARGE
Julio Rodríguez	CF	14	54	8	0.148	0	2	0.246	3	2	1	0	2	0	0.667	0.264	0.319	0.471	LARGE
Josh Naylor	1B	13	52	6	0.115	0	2	0.193	5	2	1	4	0	1	0.400	0.293	0.350	0.462	LARGE
Randy Arozarena	LF	14	48	13	0.271	1	6	0.407	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.240	0.335	0.417	OK
Luke Raley	RF	12	38	9	0.237	3	7	0.310	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.189	0.298	0.287	MODERATE
Cole Young	2B	14	49	13	0.265	2	8	0.333	2	1	2	0	2	0	0.500	0.212	0.304	0.301	MODERATE
Dominic Canzone	DH	11	29	6	0.207	2	4	0.281	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.288	0.342	0.450	MODERATE
Leo Rivas	3B	12	36	6	0.167	0	3	0.302	2	2	2	2	2	0	1.000	0.235	0.386	0.314	LARGE
TEAM TOTALS									32	8	8	8	8	4	0.250

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Lance McCullers Jr.	Starter	2	11.0	3.27	1.182	10.6	13	5.0	4	3	3	3	1	89	4.0	3	2
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	5	3.2	22.50	3.750	22.5	8	2.0	2	3	3	2	2	46	0.5	1	0
Bryan King	Middle Reliever	5	4.4	2.05	1.364	16.4	8	1.0	2	2	2	3	1	40	1.0	0	1

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Luis Castillo	Starter	2	9.2	2.93	1.304	10.8	11	6.0	5	3	3	1	5	98	4.0	4	2
Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	5	5.0	3.60	1.000	14.4	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12	1.2	2	0
Matt Brash	Middle Reliever	5	4.2	0.00	0.476	8.6	4	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9	1.1	2	0
Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever	7	5.3	3.40	1.132	10.2	6	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	22	1.0	3	0

SEA wins 8-4