Deep slate report 20260926

Which reports actually fed the diagnosis. A source shown as missing was not silently assumed.

High-level causal issue register

Source	Status	Evidence supplied	Path	Bytes
prediction review	loaded	official outcomes and scoring errors	/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260926.json	353204
forensic deep audit	loaded	probability, provenance, starter and decision contracts	/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260926.json	224838
continuous learning	loaded	pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage, score distribution, and official starter comparisons	/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260926.json	2260701
detailed report	loaded	full game and simulation rendering	/app/output/reports/detailed_20260926.html	333438
ultra detailed player audit	loaded	player-level prediction trace	/app/output/reports/20260926_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html	30438507
structural audit	loaded	all invariant findings	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260926.html	1729792
integrity revision audit	missing	post-Luna remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260926_integrity_revision.html	n/a

Deterministic findings across data integrity, model validation, calibration, score distribution, pipeline stages, simulation, and coverage. Critical is reserved for broken evidence or an unexplained contract violation; high marks material model/process risk. Each row pairs the action to take (Do this) with the wrong conclusion to avoid (Don't conclude).

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

A finding that has repeated at or beyond the escalation streak is no longer single-slate noise. It carries its target registered lever and an action-oriented guardrail.

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Every stored stage is scored against the same official finals. A later recovery remains visible; it does not erase an unstable intermediate flip.

Probability lineage and calibration

All columns are pick-side probabilities, so away favorites are not accidentally compared using home-side semantics.

Score distribution and margin compression

Narrow predicted margins next to wide actual margins is the signature the score-variance tail is too tight.

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (13)

Severity	Domain	Finding and evidence	Affected	Action & guardrail
CRITICAL	probability_lineage	Published probability differs materially without a recorded transformation 1 game(s) have an unexplained ≥2pp calibrated-to-published delta	COL@CHW	Do thisBlock any promotion until the missing probability transformation is recorded and reconciled. Don't concludeDo not assume the probability governor was bypassed until you have traced the pick-side math.
HIGH	pipeline_stages	An intermediate stage materially degraded winner direction historical_ml → variance_applied changed winner accuracy by -0.2308 (-3 hits)	CLE@KC, HOU@OAK, NYM@WAS	Do thisList the exact games whose winner flipped at this stage, and keep both the before-stage and after-stage picks in the trace. Don't concludeEven if a later stage recovers the pick, this unstable step is still a risk; do not treat it as harmless.
HIGH	score_distribution	Published margins are compressed relative to realized margins 12/13 predictions were ≤2 runs; 8/13 actual margins were ≥4; mean predicted margin 1.62 vs actual 4.62	ATL@MIA, CLE@KC, HOU@OAK, LAA@SEA, NYM@WAS, TB@PHI, TEX@MIN	Do thisCheck whether predicted margins are too narrow across several recent out-of-sample slates (measuring tail coverage and margin MAE) before widening the score spread. Don't concludeA single blowout game is not a reason to widen every score prediction.
HIGH	calibration	Published confidence buckets were poorly aligned on this slate weighted absolute calibration error 0.1524 across 13 games	ARI@SD, ATL@MIA, CIN@TOR, CLE@KC, COL@CHW, HOU@OAK, LAA@SEA, LAD@SF, NYM@WAS, PIT@DET, STL@MIL, TB@PHI, TEX@MIN	Do thisWatch the same confidence buckets over the full rolling window before changing any calibration weight. Don't concludeA single slate has far too few games to establish a stable calibration curve.
HIGH	model_validation	Validated run models explain very little holdout variance home/away/total R² = 0.0141/0.0320/0.0038	ARI@SD, ATL@MIA, CIN@TOR, CLE@KC, COL@CHW, HOU@OAK, LAA@SEA, LAD@SF, NYM@WAS, PIT@DET, STL@MIL, TB@PHI, TEX@MIN	Do thisTreat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails. Don't concludeA small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.
INFO	coverage	Every settled game received structural QA 14/13 games structurally audited	ARI@SD, ATL@MIA, CIN@TOR, CLE@KC, COL@CHW, HOU@OAK, LAA@SEA, LAD@SF, NYM@WAS, PIT@DET, STL@MIL, TB@PHI, TEX@MIN	Do thisKeep the per-game audit receipt in every report. Don't concludeFull audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.
INFO	simulation	Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate flip candidates 0; published flips 0	ARI@SD, ATL@MIA, CIN@TOR, CLE@KC, COL@CHW, HOU@OAK, LAA@SEA, LAD@SF, NYM@WAS, PIT@DET, STL@MIL, TB@PHI, TEX@MIN	Do thisMeasure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping. Don't concludeZero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Finding	Persistence	Target lever(s)	Direction	Guardrail
simulation_inert_on_slate	11 consecutive · 11 in window	simulation.allow_score	confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping	simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
weak_run_model_signal	11 consecutive · 11 in window	training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate	investigate features/target via isolated training backtest (manual)	weak_run_model_signal has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Finding	Consecutive slates	Incidence	Present now	Fix type
high_raw_probability_cluster	0	3/11	no	param
pipeline_winner_instability	1	7/11	yes	code/diagnostic
score_margin_compression	1	1/11	yes	param
simulation_inert_on_slate	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic
single_slate_calibration_instability	1	7/11	yes	param
weak_run_model_signal	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic

Metric	Direction	Series (old → new)
winner_accuracy	flat	[0.6667, 0.4444, 0.6667, 0.7333, 0.6, 0.3333, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6667, 0.6471, 0.5385]
weighted_calibration_error	improving	[0.1661, 0.1016, 0.1247, 0.3458, 0.3184, 0.2028, 0.1881, 0.1108, 0.1701, 0.1302, 0.1524]
margin_bias	regressing	[-1.133, -2.111, -2.0, -0.667, -1.533, -2.667, -1.867, -1.188, -1.083, -1.706, -3.0]
team_run_error_on_losses	regressing	[6.4, 3.6, 5.2, 6.5, 6.5, 3.0, 6.222, 5.75, 3.5, 5.333, 6.167]

Stage	Winner hits	Accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
historical_ml	9/13	69.2%	2.712	3.588	4.628
variance_applied	6/13	46.2%	2.731	3.615	4.692
enhanced_prediction	7/13	53.8%	2.692	3.385	4.769
embedded_savant_run_environment	7/13	53.8%	2.769	3.538	4.923
fundamental_edge_target_review	7/13	53.8%	2.808	3.615	5
capped_target	7/13	53.8%	2.808	3.615	5
simulation_result	7/13	53.8%	2.808	3.615	5
published_final	7/13	53.8%	2.808	3.615	5

Transition	Δ accuracy	Δ hits	Δ team-run MAE	Δ margin MAE	Games whose winner/tie changed
historical_ml → variance_applied	-0.2308	-3	0.0186	0.0646	CHC@BOS: BOS → TIE; CLE@KC: CLE → TIE; HOU@OAK: HOU → TIE; NYM@WAS: NYM → TIE
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction	0.077	1	-0.0385	0.0769	CHC@BOS: TIE → BOS; CLE@KC: TIE → CLE; HOU@OAK: TIE → HOU; NYM@WAS: TIE → WAS; TEX@MIN: TEX → MIN
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment	0	0	0.0769	0.1539	NYM@WAS: WAS → TIE
embedded_savant_run_environment → fundamental_edge_target_review	0	0	0.0385	0.0769	NYM@WAS: TIE → WAS
fundamental_edge_target_review → capped_target	0	0	0	0
capped_target → simulation_result	0	0	0	0
simulation_result → published_final	0	0	0	0

Game	Outcome	Raw model	Calibrated	Governor	Score coherence	Published	Explanation
ARI@SD	miss	0.5822	0.5474	0.5474	0.5474	0.5342	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
ATL@MIA	hit	0.6259	0.5703	0.5703	0.5703	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CIN@TOR	miss	0.6356	0.6195	0.6195	0.6195	0.6195	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
CLE@KC	hit	0.5778	0.6014	0.6014	0.5877	0.56	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
COL@CHW	miss	0.7429	0.7218	0.7218	0.7218	0.6978	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
HOU@OAK	hit	0.5595	0.5355	0.5355	0.5355	0.5229	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
LAA@SEA	hit	0.5622	0.537	0.537	0.537	0.518	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
LAD@SF	hit	0.6376	0.5985	0.5985	0.5863	0.5535	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
NYM@WAS	miss	0.5	0.5132	0.5132	0.5132	0.5064	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
PIT@DET	miss	0.5657	0.5388	0.5388	0.5388	0.5133	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
STL@MIL	hit	0.5672	0.5626	0.5626	0.5626	0.5354	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
TB@PHI	hit	0.5834	0.6076	0.6076	0.6076	0.6076	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
TEX@MIN	miss	0.5	0.5117	0.5117	0.5117	0.51	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value

Sides analyzed	Broke on pitching	Broke on offense	Both	Variance	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj
26	3	4	5	14	0.55	0.69

Game	Trained p(home)	Blended p(home)	Blend favoured	Published p(home)	Published side	Artifact says winner changed	Outcome
NYM@WAS	0.47	0.493	away	0.506	home	yes	miss
TEX@MIN	0.399	0.456	away	0.51	home	yes	miss

Slate	Games	Winner acc	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj	Sides broke on pitching	Sides broke on offense
20260925	17	0.647	1.13	0.50	8	10
20260924	12	0.667	1.68	-0.67	4	11
20260923	16	0.500	-0.49	-0.91	4	11
20260922	15	0.400	-0.32	-0.97	3	11
20260921	3	0.333	-1.08	-0.50
20260920	15	0.600	-0.89	-1.00	2	10
20260919	15	0.733	1.36	-0.10	8	7
20260918	15	0.667	3.95	0.30	6	5
20260917	9	0.444	2.16	-0.22	2	3
20260916	15	0.667	2.09	-0.23	4	5
20260915	15	0.400	-1.58	-0.70	1	12
20260914	10	0.700	-0.48	-0.20	2	6

Game	Pred margin	Actual margin	Pred − actual
ARI@SD	1	3	-2
ATL@MIA	1	5	-4
CIN@TOR	2	4	-2
CLE@KC	1	6	-5
COL@CHW	5	3	2
HOU@OAK	1	11	-10
LAA@SEA	1	4	-3
LAD@SF	2	1	1
NYM@WAS	1	6	-5
PIT@DET	2	1	1
STL@MIL	1	1	0
TB@PHI	2	11	-9
TEX@MIN	1	4	-3

ARI@SDMISS

Predicted: ARI 5-4 (conf -0.07, lean)Actual: SD 7-10Brier 0.285total bias -8

Root cause: Run environment far higher than projected (under-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.07 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 8; total bias -8
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.052, recent -0.158, pitcher +0.018, composite -0.151
confidence pipeline reached 0.547 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.466
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 8 (9 vs 17)
SD offense under-projected by 6

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
ARI	Taylor Clarke	1 ER / 18 outs	1 ER / 2 outs	0
SD	Walker Buehler	5 ER / 14 outs	3 ER / 11 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1 / away×0.982; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Xander Bogaerts (SD SS): 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Dustin Harris (SD LF): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Tim Tawa (ARI CF): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Ethan Salas (SD C): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Jackson Merrill (SD CF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

Per-pitch matchup fields are not populated in the current feeds, so this is reconstructed from the settled box: each starter's workload-adjusted ERA, the bullpen share behind him, and the opposing lineup's real production against its projection, with the hitters who beat that projection named.

AWAY pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Taylor Clarke (ARI) at a projected 1.5 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 10 runs on 13 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Xander Bogaerts: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - real projection error
Dustin Harris: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.312, average - a good day, not a model error
Ethan Salas: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.211, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Walker Buehler (SD) threw 11 outs, 3 ER = 7.36 ERA against a projected 9.64 ERA (-2.28 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 3 ER over 12 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Tim Tawa: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.315, average - a good day, not a model error
Ketel Marte: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.345, elite - real projection error
Pavin Smith: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.284, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material. exp BB and exp SO are the continuous rate expectations. The integer beside each is a simulation draw reconciled to the opposing simulated batting box, so it is not the line that ranks pitchers: on the 2026-09-07 slate the integers published 39 walks and 121 strikeouts against 51 and 130 real, while these expectations landed on 50.4 and 132.6.)

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
SD	Walker Buehler (Starter)	11 / 14	7.36 / 9.64	3 / 5	5 / 5	1 / 0	1 / 2	1.54	3 / 7	3.71	venue home: 4.1 vs 5.13 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 31 prior appearances this season
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.31	2 / 1	1.36
SD	Adrian Morejon (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.39	2 / 0	1.14
SD	Mason Miller (Closer)	3 / 3	27 / 0 (+27.00)	3 / 0	3 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 2	0.31	2 / 1	1.71

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Xander Bogaerts (SS)	SD	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1.26	0.323 above average	projection too low
Dustin Harris (LF)	SD	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1.09	0.312 average	no signal
Tim Tawa (CF)	ARI	4 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.315 average	no signal
Ethan Salas (C)	SD	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.211 weak	good day
Jackson Merrill (CF)	SD	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.8	0.347 elite	projection too low
Ketel Marte (2B)	ARI	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.78	0.345 elite	projection too low
Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF)	SD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.78	0.38 elite	bad day
Gavin Sheets (DH)	SD	5 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.78	0.317 average	no signal
Jake Cronenworth (2B)	SD	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.27 weak	good day
Nolan Arenado (3B)	ARI	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.6	0.299 below average	projection too high
Pavin Smith (1B)	ARI	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.284 below average	—
Corbin Carroll (RF)	ARI	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.343 elite	—
Gabriel Moreno (DH)	ARI	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.31	0.363 elite	—
Lars Nootbaar (LF)	ARI	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	-0.14	0.346 elite	—
Geraldo Perdomo (SS)	ARI	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 0	-0.14	0.332 above average	—
Manny Machado (3B)	SD	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.327 above average	—
Ty France (1B)	SD	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.329 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.052	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.158	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.018	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.151	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.74-3.7	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.534	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.74-3.7	5-4	-0.046	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	5-4	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
ARI	Ketel Marte	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB -2.86
ARI	Corbin Carroll	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 2.039
SD	Walker Buehler	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
SD	Jackson Merrill	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.91
SD	Ty France	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB -1.72
SD	Xander Bogaerts	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 1.7
SD	Fernando Tatis Jr.	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H -1.57
SD	Manny Machado	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.55

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ARI
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	ARI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: 2B current=0 box=1; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; James McCann: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	ARI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=5, sim=6).	SD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).	SD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dustin Harris: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Ty France: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Ethan Salas: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	SD
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

ATL@MIAHIT

Predicted: ATL 5-4 (conf -0.06, lean)Actual: ATL 8-3Brier 0.221total bias -2

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.503, recent -0.162, pitcher +0.010, composite -0.475
confidence pipeline reached 0.570 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.470
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

ATL offense under-projected by 3
Brent Suter (ATL) allowed 4 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 4)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
ATL	Brent Suter	4 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 9 outs	-4
MIA	Jack Ralston	3 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 4 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×1.01 / away×1; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Dominic Smith (ATL DH): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.73]
Michael Harris II (ATL CF): 4-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.72]
Drake Baldwin (ATL C): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.54]
Ha-Seong Kim (ATL SS): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.42]
Matt Olson (ATL 1B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]

Starter miss: Jack Ralston (MIA) posted 20.25 ERA vs projected 5.40 (3 ER in 4 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Brent Suter (ATL) threw 9 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-7.2 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 9 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Javier Sanoja: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.293, below average - a good day, not a model error
Otto Lopez: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.328, above average - a good day, not a model error
Griffin Conine: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.363, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Jack Ralston (MIA) threw 4 outs, 3 ER = 20.25 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (14.85 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 10 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Dominic Smith: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.73 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.296, below average - a good day, not a model error
Michael Harris II: 4-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.72 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.341, elite - real projection error
Drake Baldwin: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.54 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.369, elite - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
ATL	Brent Suter (Starter)	9 / 15	0 / 7.2 (-7.20)	0 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 3	4.19	3 / 3	3.05	venue away: 7.36 vs 0 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 53 prior appearances this season
ATL	Dylan Lee (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.25	1 / 2	0.98
ATL	Raisel Iglesias (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.21	0 / 1	1.19
ATL	Dylan Dodd (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	18 / 0 (+18.00)	2 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.27	0 / 2	1.21
MIA	Jack Ralston (Starter)	4 / 15	20.25 / 5.4 (+14.85)	3 / 3	3 / 5	1 / 2	1 / 0	1.98	2 / 5	4.58	opp run factor 1 (strong) · 15 prior appearances this season
MIA	Victor Vodnik (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.65	1 / 1	0.99

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Dominic Smith (DH)	ATL	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1.73	0.296 below average	good day
Michael Harris II (CF)	ATL	5 / 4	4 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.72	0.341 elite	projection too low
Drake Baldwin (C)	ATL	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.54	0.369 elite	projection too low
Ha-Seong Kim (SS)	ATL	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.42	0.209 weak	good day
Matt Olson (1B)	ATL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.353 elite	bad day
Javier Sanoja (3B)	MIA	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1.09	0.293 below average	good day
Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF)	ATL	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.369 elite	bad day
Jakob Marsee (DH)	MIA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.314 average	no signal
Heriberto Hernández (LF)	MIA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.343 elite	bad day
Austin Riley (3B)	ATL	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.301 below average	—
Ozzie Albies (2B)	ATL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.275 weak	—
Esteury Ruiz (CF)	MIA	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.276 weak	—
Otto Lopez (SS)	MIA	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.328 above average	—
Deyvison De Los Santos (1B)	MIA	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.187 weak	—
Griffin Conine (RF)	MIA	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.363 elite	—
Agustín Ramírez (C)	MIA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.287 below average	—
Jared Serna (2B)	MIA	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.183 weak	—
Mike Yastrzemski (LF)	ATL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.309 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.503	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.162	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.01	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.475	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.39-3.74	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.39-3.74	5-4	-0.645	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	5-4	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
ATL	Michael Harris II	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.85
ATL	Drake Baldwin	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 2.051
MIA	Jakob Marsee	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.727
MIA	Otto Lopez	batter / SS	worse	predicted_RBI 1.61
MIA	Heriberto Hernández	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.51
MIA	Deyvison De Los Santos	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB 1.5
MIA	Jared Serna	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
ATL	Matt Olson	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.46

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ATL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=9).	ATL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ronald Acuña Jr.: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Austin Riley: R current=0 box=1; Mike Yastrzemski: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dominic Smith: SO current=0 box=1	ATL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=9).	MIA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Agustín Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Esteury Ruiz: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Deyvison De Los Santos: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Griffin Conine: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jared Serna: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	MIA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CIN@TORMISS

Predicted: TOR 3-5 (conf +0.24, strong)Actual: CIN 5-1Brier 0.384total bias +2

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.24 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.439, recent +0.210, pitcher +0.090, composite +0.851
confidence pipeline reached 0.620 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.620
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

TOR offense over-projected by 4
Rhett Lowder (CIN) allowed 4 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 4)
committed to TOR at 0.24 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CIN	Rhett Lowder	4 ER / 12 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-4
TOR	Trey Yesavage	3 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 6 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.046 / away×0.956; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Elly De La Cruz (CIN SS): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Héctor Rodríguez (CIN RF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Kazuma Okamoto (TOR 3B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
JJ Bleday (CIN LF): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Tyler Stephenson (CIN C): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Rhett Lowder (CIN) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 9.00 (0 ER in 18 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (7.44 ERA there vs 5.02 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Rhett Lowder (CIN) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 9 ERA (-9 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Josh Smith: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.277, weak - a good day, not a model error
Brett Bateman: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.304, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Trey Yesavage (TOR) threw 6 outs, 1 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (-0.9 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Héctor Rodríguez: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.256, weak - a good day, not a model error
JJ Bleday: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.338, above average - real projection error
Eugenio Suárez: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.45 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.302, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CIN	Rhett Lowder (Starter)	18 / 12	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 4	3 / 6	0 / 1	2 / 1	2.2	2 / 2	4.26	venue away: 7.44 vs 5.02 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.05 (weak) · 28 prior appearances this season
TOR	Trey Yesavage (Starter)	6 / 15	4.5 / 5.4	1 / 3	2 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 2	1.74	3 / 4	4.74	venue home: 4.2 vs 3.2 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.96 (weak) · 19 prior appearances this season
TOR	Spencer Miles (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 4	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.39	2 / 0	1.5

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Elly De La Cruz (SS)	CIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-1.4	0.377 elite	bad day
Héctor Rodríguez (RF)	CIN	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.09	0.256 weak	good day
Kazuma Okamoto (3B)	TOR	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-1.07	0.329 above average	bad day
JJ Bleday (LF)	CIN	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0.93	0.338 above average	projection too low
Tyler Stephenson (C)	CIN	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.325 above average	bad day
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (DH)	TOR	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 0	-0.8	0.333 above average	bad day
Alejandro Kirk (C)	TOR	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.8	0.309 average	no signal
Josh Smith (LF)	TOR	4 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.277 weak	good day
Brett Bateman (CF)	TOR	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.47	0.304 average	—
Ernie Clement (2B)	TOR	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.259 weak	—
Eugenio Suárez (DH)	CIN	4 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 2	0.45	0.302 below average	—
Carlos Jorge (CF)	CIN	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0.35	0.257 weak	—
Matt McLain (2B)	CIN	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.295 below average	—
Juan Brito (3B)	CIN	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.297 below average	—
Nathan Lukes (RF)	TOR	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.293 below average	—
Sal Stewart (1B)	CIN	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.345 elite	—
Sean Keys (1B)	TOR	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.259 weak	—
Andrés Giménez (SS)	TOR	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.274 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.439	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.21	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.09	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.851	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.25-5.54	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-5	0.62	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.25-5.54	4-6	0.71	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	3-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-5	3-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-5	3-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-5	3-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-5	3-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TOR	Kazuma Okamoto	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -2.13
TOR	Andrés Giménez	batter / SS	deboosted	predicted_RBI 1.87
CIN	Carlos Jorge	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 1.81
TOR	Brett Bateman	batter / CF	boosted	predicted_H 1.63
TOR	Alejandro Kirk	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 1.5
TOR	Josh Smith	batter / LF	better	predicted_H 1.44
CIN	Matt McLain	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB -1.405
TOR	Sean Keys	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 1.381

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CIN
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=5; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=7).	CIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Elly De La Cruz: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carlos Jorge: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Juan Brito: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=6, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).	TOR
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Bateman: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Sean Keys: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Smith: H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Alejandro Kirk: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	TOR
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CLE@KCHIT

Predicted: CLE 6-5 (conf -0.12, moderate)Actual: CLE 11-5Brier 0.194total bias -5

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias -5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.945, recent -1.086, pitcher +0.059, composite -0.842
confidence pipeline reached 0.601 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.440
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 5 (11 vs 16)
CLE offense under-projected by 5
Tanner Bibee (CLE) allowed 3 more ER than projected (3 vs 0)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CLE	Tanner Bibee	0 ER / 16 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	3
KC	Michael Wacha	3 ER / 19 outs	2 ER / 19 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.039 / away×0.98; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Brayan Rocchio (CLE SS): 3-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 3.58]
Patrick Bailey (CLE C): 2-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.33]
Travis Bazzana (CLE 2B): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Steven Kwan (CLE CF): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.56]
Angel Martínez (CLE LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]

Starter miss: Tanner Bibee (CLE) posted 4.50 ERA vs projected 0.00 (3 ER in 18 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Tanner Bibee (CLE) threw 18 outs, 3 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (4.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 2 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 10 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jac Caglianone: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.356, elite - real projection error
Bobby Witt Jr.: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.45 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.379, elite - a good day, not a model error
Salvador Perez: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Michael Wacha (KC) threw 19 outs, 2 ER = 2.84 ERA against a projected 4.26 ERA (-1.42 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 4 ER over 1 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 11 runs on 14 hits and 5 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (7 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Brayan Rocchio: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI [+3.58 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.294, below average - a good day, not a model error
Patrick Bailey: 2-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI [+2.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.306, average - a good day, not a model error
Travis Bazzana: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.298, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CLE	Tanner Bibee (Starter)	18 / 16	4.5 / 0 (+4.50)	3 / 0	7 / 2	0 / 0	1 / 0	1.84	6 / 6	3.44	venue away: 4.22 vs 4.46 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.04 (weak) · 32 prior appearances this season
CLE	Cade Smith (Closer)	2 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.28	0 / 0	1.34
KC	Michael Wacha (Starter)	19 / 19	2.84 / 4.26	2 / 3	6 / 8	2 / 0	1 / 2	1.99	4 / 6	4.98	venue home: 2.93 vs 3.67 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 31 prior appearances this season
KC	Alex Lange (Setup Man)	1 / 3	108 / 0 (+108.00)	4 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0.63	0 / 2	0.93

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Brayan Rocchio (SS)	CLE	4 / 3	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3.58	0.294 below average	good day
Patrick Bailey (C)	CLE	5 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	2.33	0.306 average	no signal
Travis Bazzana (2B)	CLE	4 / 3	3 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.87	0.298 below average	good day
Steven Kwan (CF)	CLE	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1.56	0.328 above average	projection too low
Angel Martínez (LF)	CLE	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-1.4	0.305 average	no signal
José Ramírez (3B)	CLE	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-1.11	0.325 above average	bad day
Jac Caglianone (RF)	KC	4 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.356 elite	projection too low
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B)	KC	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 0	-0.64	0.334 above average	bad day
Chase DeLauter (RF)	CLE	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.62	0.345 elite	projection too low
Josh Rojas (3B)	KC	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.22 weak	—
Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)	KC	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.45	0.379 elite	—
Salvador Perez (DH)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.316 average	—
Carter Jensen (C)	KC	4 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.16	0.311 average	—
Jo Adell (DH)	CLE	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.324 above average	—
Nathaniel Lowe (1B)	CLE	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	4 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.335 above average	—
John Rave (CF)	KC	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.317 average	—
Michael Massey (2B)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.306 average	—
Isaac Collins (LF)	KC	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.292 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.945	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-1.086	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.059	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.842	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.05-4.67	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.05-4.67	5-5	-0.379	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	6-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	6-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
KC	Isaac Collins	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 3.164
KC	Michael Massey	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_RBI 2.57
KC	Salvador Perez	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB -2.31
CLE	Travis Bazzana	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 2.126
KC	Josh Rojas	batter / 3B	deboosted	predicted_H 1.81
KC	Bobby Witt Jr.	batter / SS	worse	predicted_2B 1.771
CLE	Patrick Bailey	batter / C	worse	predicted_H 1.73
CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_H 1.65

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=10).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nathaniel Lowe: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Chase DeLauter: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	KC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; John Rave: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vinnie Pasquantino: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=4	KC
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

COL@CHWMISS

Predicted: CHW 4-9 (conf +0.40, strong)Actual: COL 9-6Brier 0.487total bias -2

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.40 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 8; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.527, recent +1.358, pitcher +0.085, composite +2.265
confidence pipeline reached 0.722 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.698
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

COL offense under-projected by 5
CHW offense over-projected by 3
committed to CHW at 0.40 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
COL	Jose Quintana	4 ER / 12 outs	2 ER / 9 outs	-2
CHW	Davis Martin	0 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 2 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.018 / away×0.934; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Ezequiel Tovar (COL SS): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Munetaka Murakami (CHW 1B): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Hunter Goodman (COL DH): 2-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Brenton Doyle (CHW CF): 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Tommy Pham (CHW DH): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Jose Quintana (COL) posted 6.00 ERA vs projected 9.00 (2 ER in 9 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (6.75 ERA there vs 4.44 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Jose Quintana (COL) threw 9 outs, 2 ER = 6 ERA against a projected 9 ERA (-3 ERA error) only 10 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 3 ER over 7 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 3 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 6 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Brenton Doyle: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.244, weak - a good day, not a model error
Kyle Teel: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.324, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Davis Martin (CHW) at a projected 0 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 10 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Ezequiel Tovar: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.277, weak - a good day, not a model error
Hunter Goodman: 2-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.321, above average - real projection error
Cole Carrigg: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.61 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.314, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
COL	Jose Quintana (Starter)	9 / 12	6 / 9 (-3.00)	2 / 4	2 / 7	2 / 0	2 / 4	1.51	3 / 6	2.04	venue away: 6.75 vs 4.44 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.02 (average) · 10 prior appearances this season
COL	Brennan Bernardino (Setup Man)	4 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.14	1 / 2	0.86
COL	Jordan Romano (Closer)	3 / 5	27 / 0 (+27.00)	3 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.49	2 / 1	1.11

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Ezequiel Tovar (SS)	COL	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.87	0.277 weak	good day
Munetaka Murakami (1B)	CHW	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.351 elite	bad day
Hunter Goodman (DH)	COL	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	4 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.321 above average	projection too low
Brenton Doyle (CF)	CHW	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.93	0.244 weak	good day
Tommy Pham (DH)	CHW	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.325 above average	bad day
Cole Carrigg (CF)	COL	5 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.61	0.314 average	no signal
Connor Norby (3B)	COL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.307 average	—
Mickey Moniak (RF)	COL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.279 weak	—
Brett Sullivan (C)	COL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.283 weak	—
Kyle Teel (C)	CHW	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.324 above average	—
Randal Grichuk (LF)	CHW	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.45	0.336 above average	—
TJ Rumfield (1B)	COL	1 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.33	0.332 above average	—
Miguel Vargas (3B)	CHW	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 1	0.19	0.378 elite	—
Jake McCarthy (LF)	COL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.02	0.321 above average	—
Adael Amador (2B)	COL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.27 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.527	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	1.358	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.085	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	2.265	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.04-5.17	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-8	0.698	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-9	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-9	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-9	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-9	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.04-5.17	4-5	-0.136	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-8	3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-8	4-9	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-9	4-9	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-9	4-9	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-9	4-9	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
COL	Nick Frasso	pitcher / Reliever	worse	predicted_ER 4
CHW	Randal Grichuk	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB 3.5
CHW	Munetaka Murakami	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 3.384
CHW	Brenton Doyle	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 3.127
CHW	Luisangel Acuña	batter / SS	worse	predicted_RBI 2.95
CHW	Tommy Pham	batter / DH	better	predicted_AB 2.5
CHW	Sam Antonacci	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 2.4
CHW	Tristan Peters	batter / RF	better	predicted_H 2.201

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHW
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=45; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=9; R: current=5, sim=9; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=11).	CHW
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Randal Grichuk: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Brenton Doyle: AB current=4 box=6, SO current=1 box=2; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Luisangel Acuña: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Teel: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=8, sim=9).	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=39; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).	COL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Adael Amador: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brett Sullivan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	COL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

HOU@OAKHIT

Predicted: HOU 6-5 (conf -0.05, lean)Actual: HOU 13-2Brier 0.228total bias -4

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.05 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 10; total bias -4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.871, recent -0.230, pitcher -0.039, composite -0.803
confidence pipeline reached 0.535 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.477
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 4 (11 vs 15)
HOU offense under-projected by 7
OAK offense over-projected by 3
Jack Perkins (OAK) allowed 3 more ER than projected (6 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
HOU	Hayden Wesneski	3 ER / 16 outs	1 ER / 21 outs	-2
OAK	Jack Perkins	3 ER / 14 outs	6 ER / 15 outs	3

Decision internals: run factors home×0.998 / away×1.038; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jeremy Peña (HOU SS): 4-for-6, 2 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 2.34]
Lucas Spence (HOU CF): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.71]
Isaac Paredes (HOU 3B): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.54]
Shea Langeliers (OAK DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Lawrence Butler (OAK RF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]

Starter miss: Jack Perkins (OAK) posted 10.80 ERA vs projected 5.79 (6 ER in 15 outs); he is materially worse pitching home (7.42 ERA there vs 5.24 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Hayden Wesneski (HOU) threw 21 outs, 1 ER = 1.29 ERA against a projected 5.06 ERA (-3.77 ERA error) only 10 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 6 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Henry Bolte: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.317, average - a good day, not a model error
Tommy White: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error
Zack Gelof: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Jack Perkins (OAK) threw 15 outs, 6 ER = 10.8 ERA against a projected 5.79 ERA (5.01 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 2 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 12 runs on 16 hits and 5 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (7 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jeremy Peña: 4-for-6, 2 HR, 4 RBI [+2.34 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - real projection error
Lucas Spence: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.71 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.286, below average - a good day, not a model error
Isaac Paredes: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.54 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.322, above average - real projection error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
HOU	Hayden Wesneski (Starter)	21 / 16	1.29 / 5.06 (-3.77)	1 / 3	6 / 2	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.76	5 / 3	3.93	venue away: 4.39 vs 2.63 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1 (weak) · 10 prior appearances this season
OAK	Jack Perkins (Starter)	15 / 14	10.8 / 5.79 (+5.01)	6 / 3	5 / 5	3 / 1	3 / 2	1.92	9 / 3	5	venue home: 7.42 vs 5.24 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.04 (average) · 36 prior appearances this season
OAK	Scott Blewett (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.4	2 / 1	1.14

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Jeremy Peña (SS)	HOU	6 / 4	4 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	4 / 1	4 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	2.34	0.323 above average	projection too low
Lucas Spence (CF)	HOU	5 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	1.71	0.286 below average	good day
Isaac Paredes (3B)	HOU	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1.54	0.322 above average	projection too low
Shea Langeliers (DH)	OAK	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-1.4	0.356 elite	bad day
Lawrence Butler (RF)	OAK	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.328 above average	bad day
Taylor Trammell (LF)	HOU	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.287 below average	projection too high
Donovan Walton (SS)	OAK	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.326 above average	bad day
Jose Altuve (2B)	HOU	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.49	0.27 weak	—
Henry Bolte (CF)	OAK	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.47	0.317 average	—
Carlos Cortes (LF)	OAK	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.303 average	—
Tommy White (1B)	OAK	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.292 below average	—
Jonah Heim (C)	OAK	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.285 below average	—
Zack Gelof (3B)	OAK	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.325 above average	—
Yordan Alvarez (DH)	HOU	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.45	0.443 elite	—
Jeff McNeil (2B)	OAK	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	-0.45	0.299 below average	—
Christian Walker (1B)	HOU	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.303 average	—
Cam Smith (RF)	HOU	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	0.19	0.316 average	—
Yainer Diaz (C)	HOU	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.16	0.311 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.871	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.23	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.039	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.803	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.37-4.64	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.523	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.37-4.64	5-5	-0.726	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	6-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	6-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
HOU	Taylor Trammell	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 2.91
OAK	Henry Bolte	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 2.664
HOU	Yordan Alvarez	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 2.28
HOU	Christian Walker	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 2.046
OAK	Jack Perkins	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_H 2
OAK	Hogan Harris	pitcher / Setup Man	better	predicted_H -2
OAK	Jonah Heim	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.63
OAK	Carlos Cortes	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.479

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	HOU
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	HOU
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yordan Alvarez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Lucas Spence: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Cam Smith: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2).	OAK
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shea Langeliers: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Henry Bolte: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=3; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Tommy White: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Jonah Heim: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	OAK
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

LAA@SEAHIT

Predicted: SEA 4-5 (conf +0.04, toss_up)Actual: SEA 4-8Brier 0.232total bias -3

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.04 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias -3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.160, recent -0.230, pitcher +0.074, composite +0.372
confidence pipeline reached 0.537 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.518
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 3 (9 vs 12)
SEA offense under-projected by 3
Ryan Johnson (LAA) allowed 3 more ER than projected (4 vs 1)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAA	Ryan Johnson	1 ER / 16 outs	4 ER / 15 outs	3
SEA	Kade Anderson	1 ER / 16 outs	0 ER / 10 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.086 / away×1.013; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Cole Young (SEA 2B): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.13]
Zach Neto (LAA SS): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
J.P. Crawford (SEA SS): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Michael Arroyo (SEA LF): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Wade Meckler (LAA RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Ryan Johnson (LAA) posted 7.20 ERA vs projected 1.69 (4 ER in 15 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (5.56 ERA there vs 3.22 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Ryan Johnson (LAA) threw 15 outs, 4 ER = 7.2 ERA against a projected 1.69 ERA (5.51 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 4 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 11 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Cole Young: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.13 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.314, average - a good day, not a model error
J.P. Crawford: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.319, average - a good day, not a model error
Michael Arroyo: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.346, elite - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Kade Anderson (SEA) threw 10 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 1.69 ERA (-1.69 ERA error) only 6 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 4 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Christian Moore: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.244, weak - a good day, not a model error
Jose Siri: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.299, below average - a good day, not a model error
Tyler Heineman: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.238, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
LAA	Ryan Johnson (Starter)	15 / 16	7.2 / 1.69 (+5.51)	4 / 1	7 / 5	0 / 0	4 / 0	1.74	3 / 4	5.4	venue away: 5.56 vs 3.22 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.09 (weak) · 21 prior appearances this season
LAA	Mitch Farris (Closer)	6 / 5	18 / 21.6 (-3.60)	4 / 4	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 2	0.79	3 / 1	2
SEA	Kade Anderson (Starter)	10 / 16	0 / 1.69	0 / 1	4 / 2	0 / 0	1 / 2	1.36	4 / 8	4.63	venue home: 4.32 vs 4.02 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (weak) · 6 prior appearances this season
SEA	José A. Ferrer (Closer)	1 / 3	54 / 0 (+54.00)	2 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.25	0 / 1	0.95
SEA	Gabe Speier (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 5	0 / 5.4 (-5.40)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.23	1 / 2	0.73

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Cole Young (2B)	SEA	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	1.13	0.314 average	no signal
Zach Neto (SS)	LAA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 2	-1.07	0.316 average	no signal
J.P. Crawford (SS)	SEA	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.07	0.319 average	no signal
Michael Arroyo (LF)	SEA	5 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.346 elite	projection too low
Wade Meckler (RF)	LAA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.318 average	no signal
Christian Moore (2B)	LAA	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.66	0.244 weak	good day
Lazaro Montes (RF)	SEA	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.313 average	no signal
Dominic Canzone (DH)	SEA	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.62	0.359 elite	bad day
Mike Trout (DH)	LAA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.382 elite	—
Jose Siri (LF)	LAA	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.299 below average	—
Tyler Heineman (C)	LAA	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.238 weak	—
Vaughn Grissom (1B)	LAA	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.31	0.311 average	—
Randy Arozarena (CF)	SEA	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	0.14	0.349 elite	—
Josh Naylor (1B)	SEA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	-0.14	0.312 average	—
Denzer Guzman (3B)	LAA	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.266 weak	—
Bryce Teodosio (CF)	LAA	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.209 weak	—
Cal Raleigh (C)	SEA	4 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.312 average	—
Leo Rivas (3B)	SEA	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.25 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.16	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.23	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.074	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.372	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.97-4.7	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.518	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.97-4.7	4-5	0.271	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SEA	J.P. Crawford	batter / SS	worse	predicted_RBI 2.71
LAA	Zach Neto	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 2.632
LAA	Jose Siri	batter / LF	worse	predicted_H 1.71
LAA	Denzer Guzman	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_RBI 1.69
LAA	Tyler Heineman	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 1.554
SEA	Michael Arroyo	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
LAA	Bryce Teodosio	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 1.417
SEA	Cal Raleigh	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO -1.317

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SEA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=11).	LAA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Wade Meckler: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Bryce Teodosio: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Christian Moore: RBI current=1 box=0; Jose Siri: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).	SEA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; J.P. Crawford: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; Dominic Canzone: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Leo Rivas: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Lazaro Montes: AB current=3 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	SEA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

LAD@SFHIT

Predicted: LAD 4-2 (conf -0.11, moderate)Actual: LAD 4-3Brier 0.199total bias -1

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.11 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 1; total bias -1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.641, recent -1.190, pitcher -0.018, composite -1.598
confidence pipeline reached 0.599 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.447
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAD	Blake Snell	0 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 12 outs	1
SF	Matt Wilkinson	1 ER / 14 outs	1 ER / 9 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.959 / away×0.976; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Enrique Hernández (LAD 1B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Shohei Ohtani (LAD DH): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Brett Harris (SF 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Mookie Betts (LAD SS): 1-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.62]
Victor Bericoto (SF DH): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.62]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Blake Snell (LAD) threw 12 outs, 1 ER = 2.25 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (2.25 ERA error) only 8 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 9 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Bo Davidson: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error
Shay Whitcomb: 2-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.257, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Matt Wilkinson (SF) threw 9 outs, 1 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 1.93 ERA (1.07 ERA error) only 7 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 9 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Enrique Hernández: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.271, weak - a good day, not a model error
Mookie Betts: 1-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.341, elite - real projection error
Tommy Edman: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.301, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
LAD	Blake Snell (Starter)	12 / 17	2.25 / 0	1 / 0	5 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1.94	3 / 5	5.72	venue away: 1.53 vs 2.14 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (weak) · 8 prior appearances this season
LAD	Alex Vesia (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.5	2 / 0	1.16
LAD	Brock Stewart (Setup Man)	3 / 4	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.33	1 / 0	0.83
LAD	Tanner Scott (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.28	2 / 0	1.26
SF	Matt Wilkinson (Starter)	9 / 14	3 / 1.93	1 / 1	1 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	2 / 6	3.56	venue home: 3 vs 5.27 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (strong) · 7 prior appearances this season
SF	Carson Seymour (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	1 / 1	0.79
SF	Trent Harris (Setup Man)	3 / 4	9 / 6.75	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.23	0 / 0	1.44

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Enrique Hernández (1B)	LAD	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.271 weak	good day
Shohei Ohtani (DH)	LAD	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.26	0.4 elite	bad day
Brett Harris (1B)	SF	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.254 weak	projection too high
Mookie Betts (SS)	LAD	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.62	0.341 elite	projection too low
Victor Bericoto (DH)	SF	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.62	0.301 below average	projection too high
Tommy Edman (2B)	LAD	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.301 below average	—
Bo Davidson (RF)	SF	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.316 average	—
Andrew Knizner (C)	SF	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.281 weak	—
Shay Whitcomb (3B)	SF	2 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.257 weak	—
Will Smith (C)	LAD	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.33	0.392 elite	—
Miguel Rojas (3B)	LAD	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.308 average	—
Jonah Cox (2B)	SF	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 2	-0.33	0.259 weak	—
Teoscar Hernández (LF)	LAD	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.31	0.333 above average	—
Andy Pages (CF)	LAD	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.342 elite	—
Turner Hill (CF)	SF	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.02	0.317 average	—
Kyle Tucker (RF)	LAD	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.331 above average	—
Scott Bandura (LF)	SF	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.141 weak	—
Christian Koss (SS)	SF	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.243 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.641	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-1.19	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.018	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.598	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.06-2.93	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-3	0.553	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-2	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-2	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-2	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-2	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.06-2.93	5-3	-0.136	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	4-3	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	4-2	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-2	4-2	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-2	4-2	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-2	4-2	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
LAD	Enrique Hernández	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 2.196
LAD	Blake Snell	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 2
SF	Bo Davidson	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 2
LAD	Mookie Betts	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.54
LAD	Miguel Rojas	batter / 3B	better	predicted_AB 1.5
SF	Brett Harris	batter / 1B	deboosted	predicted_AB 1.5
SF	Scott Bandura	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO -1.458
LAD	Will Smith	batter / C	worse	predicted_H -1.39

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAD
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SF
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	LAD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Will Smith: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Enrique Hernández: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=3; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	LAD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=10, sim=5).	SF
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonah Cox: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Victor Bericoto: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brett Harris: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bo Davidson: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Andrew Knizner: SO current=1 box=0; Turner Hill: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Scott Bandura: SO current=1 box=0	SF
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

NYM@WASMISS

Predicted: WAS 6-7 (conf +0.01, toss_up)Actual: NYM 7-1Brier 0.256total bias +5

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias +5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.354, recent +0.214, pitcher -0.017, composite +0.211
confidence pipeline reached 0.513 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.506
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 5 (13 vs 8)
WAS offense over-projected by 6
Connelly Early (WAS) allowed 5 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 5)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
NYM	Jonah Tong	3 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	-2
WAS	Connelly Early	5 ER / 17 outs	0 ER / 9 outs	-5

Decision internals: run factors home×1.008 / away×1.026; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

CJ Abrams (WAS SS): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Carson Benge (NYM RF): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
A.J. Ewing (NYM CF): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Jorbit Vivas (WAS 2B): 0-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Juan Soto (NYM DH): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.79]

Starter miss: Connelly Early (WAS) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 7.94 (0 ER in 9 outs); he is materially worse pitching home (4.18 ERA there vs 2.64 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Jonah Tong (NYM) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (-3.6 ERA error) only 6 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 3 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-5 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Connelly Early (WAS) threw 9 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 7.94 ERA (-7.94 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Carson Benge: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.341, elite - real projection error
A.J. Ewing: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
NYM	Jonah Tong (Starter)	15 / 15	1.8 / 5.4 (-3.60)	1 / 3	3 / 5	0 / 2	1 / 2	2.09	9 / 6	5.66	venue away: 7.2 vs 3.38 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (strong) · 6 prior appearances this season
NYM	Nathan Lavender (Setup Man)	3 / 4	0 / 13.5 (-13.50)	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.2	0 / 0	1.28
WAS	Connelly Early (Starter)	9 / 17	0 / 7.94 (-7.94)	0 / 5	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 3	2.12	1 / 3	5.74	venue home: 4.18 vs 2.64 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.03 (average) · 17 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
CJ Abrams (SS)	WAS	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-1.73	0.333 above average	bad day
Carson Benge (RF)	NYM	5 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.25	0.341 elite	projection too low
A.J. Ewing (CF)	NYM	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.93	0.316 average	no signal
Jorbit Vivas (2B)	WAS	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.8	0.293 below average	projection too high
Juan Soto (DH)	NYM	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.79	0.411 elite	bad day
Keibert Ruiz (C)	WAS	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.78	0.288 below average	projection too high
Brett Baty (1B)	NYM	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.322 above average	—
Francisco Alvarez (C)	NYM	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.323 above average	—
Francisco Lindor (SS)	NYM	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.329 above average	—
Abimelec Ortiz (1B)	WAS	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.276 weak	—
Daylen Lile (LF)	WAS	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.327 above average	—
Brady House (3B)	WAS	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.333 above average	—
James Wood (DH)	WAS	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.17	0.405 elite	—
Dylan Crews (RF)	WAS	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	3 / 1	-0.14	0.32 average	—
Bo Bichette (3B)	NYM	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.02	0.331 above average	—
Nick Morabito (LF)	NYM	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.296 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.354	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.214	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.017	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.211	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.15-4.71	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.506	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-7	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-7	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-7	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.15-4.71	5-5	0.444	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	5-6	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	6-6	-1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-6	6-7	1	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-7	6-7	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-7	6-7	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
NYM	Francisco Lindor	batter / SS	deboosted	predicted_RBI 4.58
WAS	Abimelec Ortiz	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 3.83
WAS	James Wood	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO 1.677
WAS	Jorbit Vivas	batter / 2B	better	predicted_H 1.351
NYM	Nick Morabito	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB 1.267
NYM	Brett Baty	batter / 1B	better	predicted_H 1.256
WAS	Daylen Lile	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.203
NYM	Francisco Alvarez	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO -1.168

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYM
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=4).	NYM
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Brett Baty: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Morabito: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Francisco Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=5	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; SO: current=7, sim=8).	WAS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Abimelec Ortiz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=4; Dylan Crews: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: SO current=1 box=2; Keibert Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jacob Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	WAS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

PIT@DETMISS

Predicted: PIT 6-4 (conf -0.03, toss_up)Actual: DET 3-4Brier 0.264total bias +3

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.03 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias +3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.081, recent -0.188, pitcher +0.000, composite -0.362
confidence pipeline reached 0.539 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.487
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 3 (10 vs 7)
PIT offense over-projected by 3
Justin Verlander (DET) allowed 4 fewer ER than projected (2 vs 6)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
PIT	Kirby Yates	2 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 5 outs	-2
DET	Justin Verlander	6 ER / 11 outs	2 ER / 16 outs	-4

Decision internals: run factors home×1 / away×1; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Hao-Yu Lee (DET 2B): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.44]
Henry Davis (PIT C): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Jacob Gonzalez (PIT 3B): 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Dillon Dingler (DET C): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Oneil Cruz (PIT CF): 0-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Justin Verlander (DET) posted 3.38 ERA vs projected 14.73 (2 ER in 16 outs). Thin prior record (1 prior appearances this season): high projection uncertainty.

What to do: Reduce game confidence for starters the feed has little on (scale by prior appearances); prefer priors and validate any run-param change in shadow.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Kirby Yates (PIT) threw 5 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (-3.6 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 3 ER over 12 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 9 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Hao-Yu Lee: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.44 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.302, below average - a good day, not a model error
Javier Báez: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.261, weak - a good day, not a model error
Eduardo Valencia: 1-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.369, elite - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Justin Verlander (DET) threw 16 outs, 2 ER = 3.38 ERA against a projected 14.73 ERA (-11.35 ERA error) only 1 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 9 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Henry Davis: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.29, below average - a good day, not a model error
Jacob Gonzalez: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.303, average - a good day, not a model error
Konnor Griffin: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.309, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
PIT	Kirby Yates (Starter)	5 / 15	0 / 3.6 (-3.60)	0 / 2	2 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 2	2.12	1 / 4	4.62	opp run factor 1 (average) · 45 prior appearances this season
PIT	Gregory Soto (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.51	0 / 1	1.32
PIT	Luke Weaver (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.28	1 / 1	1.15
PIT	Mason Montgomery (Closer)	2 / 3	40.5 / 0 (+40.50)	3 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.43	1 / 0	1.52
PIT	Yohan Ramírez (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.54	3 / 1	1.69
DET	Justin Verlander (Starter)	16 / 11	3.38 / 14.73 (-11.35)	2 / 6	5 / 9	2 / 1	1 / 0	2.06	6 / 3	0.99	opp run factor 1 (average) · thin sample: 1 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
DET	Jacob Waguespack (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.57	2 / 1	1.4
DET	Tyler Kinley (Middle Reliever)	2 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.4	0 / 0	0.67

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Hao-Yu Lee (2B)	DET	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	1.44	0.302 below average	good day
Henry Davis (C)	PIT	3 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.94	0.29 below average	good day
Jacob Gonzalez (3B)	PIT	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.93	0.303 average	no signal
Dillon Dingler (C)	DET	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.93	0.344 elite	bad day
Oneil Cruz (CF)	PIT	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.353 elite	bad day
Konnor Griffin (SS)	PIT	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.309 average	no signal
Javier Báez (SS)	DET	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.261 weak	good day
Eduardo Valencia (DH)	DET	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.62	0.369 elite	projection too low
Spencer Horwitz (1B)	PIT	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	-0.47	0.311 average	—
Ronny Simon (RF)	PIT	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.316 average	—
Bryan Reynolds (LF)	PIT	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.45	0.354 elite	—
Kevin McGonigle (3B)	DET	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.357 elite	—
Max Clark (CF)	DET	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.322 above average	—
Spencer Torkelson (1B)	DET	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.33	0.315 average	—
Riley Greene (LF)	DET	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.02	0.373 elite	—
Ryan O'Hearn (DH)	PIT	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.317 average	—
Brandon Lowe (2B)	PIT	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.331 above average	—
Zach McKinstry (RF)	DET	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.284 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.081	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.188	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.362	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.78-2.71	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.513	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.78-2.71	5-3	-0.072	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	5-4	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	6-4	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-4	6-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-4	6-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-4	6-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
PIT	Henry Davis	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 3.53
DET	Kevin McGonigle	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 2.368
DET	Justin Verlander	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
PIT	Oneil Cruz	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.58
PIT	Ronny Simon	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 1.444
PIT	Jacob Gonzalez	batter / 3B	better	predicted_H 1.432
PIT	Brandon Lowe	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO -1.267
DET	Spencer Torkelson	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO -1.227

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	DET
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PIT
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	DET
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Eduardo Valencia: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1; Max Clark: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Javier Báez: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	DET
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=5).	PIT
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryan Reynolds: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jacob Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Konnor Griffin: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Horwitz: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Ronny Simon: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	PIT
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

STL@MILHIT

Predicted: MIL 4-5 (conf +0.07, lean)Actual: MIL 2-3Brier 0.216total bias +4

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.07 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.451, recent +1.186, pitcher -0.005, composite +1.264
confidence pipeline reached 0.563 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.535
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 4 (9 vs 5)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
STL	Quinn Mathews	1 ER / 18 outs	3 ER / 15 outs	2
MIL	Dustin May	1 ER / 13 outs	2 ER / 9 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.988 / away×0.993; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jordan Walker (STL RF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
JJ Wetherholt (STL 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Iván Herrera (STL DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Cooper Pratt (MIL SS): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.64]
Alec Burleson (STL 1B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.62]

Starter miss: Dustin May (MIL) posted 6.00 ERA vs projected 2.08 (2 ER in 9 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Quinn Mathews (STL) threw 15 outs, 3 ER = 5.4 ERA against a projected 1.5 ERA (3.9 ERA error) only 8 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Cooper Pratt: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.314, average - a good day, not a model error
Brice Turang: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.343, elite - real projection error
Brandon Lockridge: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.258, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

HOME pitching

Dustin May (MIL) threw 9 outs, 2 ER = 6 ERA against a projected 2.08 ERA (3.92 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 7 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 3 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Alec Burleson: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.373, elite - real projection error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
STL	Quinn Mathews (Starter)	15 / 18	5.4 / 1.5 (+3.90)	3 / 1	5 / 5	1 / 0	2 / 0	2.34	7 / 7	4.95	venue away: 4.68 vs 2.33 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.99 (strong) · 8 prior appearances this season
MIL	Dustin May (Starter)	9 / 13	6 / 2.08 (+3.92)	2 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 2	1.8	5 / 3	4.77	venue home: 3.87 vs 5.88 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (average) · 30 prior appearances this season
MIL	Aaron Ashby (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.65	2 / 1	1.56
MIL	Antonio Senzatela (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	1 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.41	1 / 0	0.82

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Jordan Walker (RF)	STL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.93	0.341 elite	bad day
JJ Wetherholt (2B)	STL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.349 elite	bad day
Iván Herrera (DH)	STL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.335 above average	bad day
Cooper Pratt (SS)	MIL	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.314 average	no signal
Alec Burleson (1B)	STL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.62	0.373 elite	projection too low
Brice Turang (2B)	MIL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0.62	0.343 elite	projection too low
Leonardo Bernal (C)	STL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.344 elite	—
Bryan Torres (LF)	STL	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.288 below average	—
Nathan Church (CF)	STL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.285 below average	—
Jake Bauers (1B)	MIL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.371 elite	—
Jackson Chourio (LF)	MIL	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.46	0.343 elite	—
Gary Sánchez (DH)	MIL	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.337 above average	—
Brandon Lockridge (RF)	MIL	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.258 weak	—
David Hamilton (3B)	MIL	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.274 weak	—
Nolan Gorman (3B)	STL	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.281 weak	—
Thomas Saggese (SS)	STL	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.313 average	—
William Contreras (C)	MIL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.334 above average	—
Luis Lara (CF)	MIL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.295 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.451	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	1.186	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.005	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.264	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.41-4.74	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.535	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.41-4.74	4-5	0.669	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIL	William Contreras	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.09
MIL	Jake Bauers	batter / 1B	better	predicted_H 1.99
MIL	David Hamilton	batter / 3B	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.8
STL	Alec Burleson	batter / 1B	better	predicted_H 1.55
STL	JJ Wetherholt	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_BB 1.53
STL	Bryan Torres	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.484
STL	Leonardo Bernal	batter / C	worse	predicted_H -1.34
MIL	Gary Sánchez	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO 1.296

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	STL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).	MIL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: William Contreras: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Gary Sánchez: SO current=1 box=2; Brice Turang: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Lockridge: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	STL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nathan Church: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1	STL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TB@PHIHIT

Predicted: TB 4-2 (conf -0.22, strong)Actual: TB 12-1Brier 0.154total bias -7

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.22 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 9; total bias -7
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.448, recent -0.794, pitcher +0.083, composite -0.623
confidence pipeline reached 0.608 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.392
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 7 (6 vs 13)
TB offense under-projected by 8

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TB	Griffin Jax	0 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 9 outs	0
PHI	Aaron Nola	2 ER / 18 outs	3 ER / 3 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.074 / away×0.991; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Victor Mesa Jr. (TB LF): 4-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.03]
Kyle Schwarber (PHI DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Yandy Díaz (TB DH): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
Richie Palacios (TB 2B): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Trea Turner (PHI SS): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]

Starter miss: Aaron Nola (PHI) posted 27.00 ERA vs projected 3.00 (3 ER in 3 outs); he is materially worse pitching home (5.36 ERA there vs 3.84 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Griffin Jax (TB) threw 9 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (0 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Trea Turner: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error
Bryson Stott: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.76 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.329, above average - real projection error
Brandon Marsh: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.301, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Aaron Nola (PHI) threw 3 outs, 3 ER = 27 ERA against a projected 3 ERA (24 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 12 runs on 16 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (8 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Victor Mesa Jr.: 4-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+2.03 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.329, above average - real projection error
Yandy Díaz: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.346, elite - real projection error
Richie Palacios: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 4 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.306, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
TB	Griffin Jax (Starter)	9 / 15	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1.2	1 / 2	4.13	venue away: 3.14 vs 3.3 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.07 (average) · 33 prior appearances this season
TB	Cam Booser (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.13	2 / 1	0.86
TB	Cole Sulser (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	1 / 3	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.27	2 / 0	0.83
PHI	Aaron Nola (Starter)	3 / 18	27 / 3 (+24.00)	3 / 2	4 / 4	1 / 0	0 / 3	2.1	0 / 5	4.89	venue home: 5.36 vs 3.84 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.99 (average) · 32 prior appearances this season
PHI	Brooks Raley (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.28	0 / 1	0.62

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Victor Mesa Jr. (LF)	TB	5 / 4	4 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2.03	0.329 above average	projection too low
Kyle Schwarber (DH)	PHI	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-1.4	0.365 elite	bad day
Yandy Díaz (DH)	TB	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.25	0.346 elite	projection too low
Richie Palacios (2B)	TB	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	4 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.78	0.306 average	no signal
Trea Turner (SS)	PHI	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.292 below average	good day
Bryson Stott (2B)	PHI	4 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.76	0.329 above average	projection too low
Bryce Harper (1B)	PHI	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.38 elite	bad day
Junior Caminero (3B)	TB	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.47	0.362 elite	—
Liam Hicks (C)	TB	6 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.319 average	—
Cedric Mullins (CF)	TB	5 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.264 weak	—
Alec Bohm (3B)	PHI	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.328 above average	—
Brandon Marsh (LF)	PHI	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.301 below average	—
Taylor Walls (SS)	TB	5 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	0.31	0.254 weak	—
Bryan De La Cruz (RF)	PHI	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0.19	0.296 below average	—
Jonathan Aranda (1B)	TB	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	-0.14	0.344 elite	—
Jonny DeLuca (RF)	TB	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.02	0.26 weak	—
J.T. Realmuto (C)	PHI	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.317 average	—
Justin Crawford (CF)	PHI	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0	0.285 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.448	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.794	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.083	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.623	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.72-4.27	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-2	0.608	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-2	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-2	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-2	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-2	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.72-4.27	5-4	0.55	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	4-2	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-2	4-2	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-2	4-2	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-2	4-2	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-2	4-2	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TB	Richie Palacios	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 2.52
TB	Victor Mesa Jr.	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 2.261
TB	Yandy Díaz	batter / DH	worse	predicted_2B 1.836
PHI	Bryson Stott	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_RBI 1.64
TB	Liam Hicks	batter / C	worse	predicted_BB 1.6
PHI	Bryan De La Cruz	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 1.483
PHI	Kyle Schwarber	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO -1.434
PHI	Alec Bohm	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.39

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PHI
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=9; BB: current=5, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=1).	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=3).	PHI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Trea Turner: SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryce Harper: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Bryan De La Cruz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Justin Crawford: 2B current=0 box=1	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	TB
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Cedric Mullins: H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	TB
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TEX@MINMISS

Predicted: MIN 4-5 (conf +0.02, toss_up)Actual: TEX 6-2Brier 0.26total bias +1

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.02 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias +1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.056, recent +0.654, pitcher +0.052, composite +0.490
confidence pipeline reached 0.512 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.510
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

MIN offense over-projected by 3
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)
Bailey Ober (MIN) allowed 5 more ER than projected (6 vs 1)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TEX	Nathan Eovaldi	4 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 13 outs	-3
MIN	Bailey Ober	1 ER / 15 outs	6 ER / 15 outs	5

Decision internals: run factors home×1.061 / away×1.008; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Danny Jansen (TEX C): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Luke Keaschall (MIN RF): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Corey Seager (TEX SS): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Jake Burger (TEX 1B): 1-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Kody Clemens (MIN 2B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]

Starter miss: Bailey Ober (MIN) posted 10.80 ERA vs projected 1.80 (6 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) threw 13 outs, 1 ER = 2.08 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-5.12 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 8 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Luke Keaschall: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.319, average - a good day, not a model error
Victor Caratini: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error
Alan Roden: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.351, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Bailey Ober (MIN) threw 15 outs, 6 ER = 10.8 ERA against a projected 1.8 ERA (9 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 13 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Danny Jansen: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.267, weak - a good day, not a model error
Jake Burger: 1-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error
Evan Carter: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.92 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.277, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
TEX	Nathan Eovaldi (Starter)	13 / 15	2.08 / 7.2 (-5.12)	1 / 4	4 / 4	0 / 2	2 / 1	1.55	3 / 7	5.78	venue away: 4.42 vs 3.9 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.06 (average) · 26 prior appearances this season
TEX	Jacob Latz (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.48	3 / 2	1.59
TEX	Jakob Junis (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.37	0 / 0	0.65
MIN	Bailey Ober (Starter)	15 / 15	10.8 / 1.8 (+9.00)	6 / 1	10 / 3	2 / 0	1 / 2	1.8	5 / 1	3.6	venue home: 3.3 vs 5.84 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 24 prior appearances this season
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.63	1 / 2	1.01

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Danny Jansen (C)	TEX	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1.4	0.267 weak	good day
Luke Keaschall (RF)	MIN	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1.4	0.319 average	no signal
Corey Seager (SS)	TEX	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.35 elite	bad day
Jake Burger (1B)	TEX	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.316 average	no signal
Kody Clemens (2B)	MIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.93	0.333 above average	bad day
Evan Carter (CF)	TEX	4 / 3	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.92	0.277 weak	good day
Ezequiel Duran (3B)	TEX	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.8	0.3 below average	good day
Alejandro Osuna (DH)	TEX	3 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.78	0.3 below average	good day
Victor Caratini (C)	MIN	4 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.78	0.307 average	no signal
Walker Jenkins (CF)	MIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.319 average	—
Royce Lewis (1B)	MIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.304 average	—
Wyatt Langford (LF)	TEX	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.321 above average	—
Nicky Lopez (2B)	TEX	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	0.269 weak	—
Alan Roden (LF)	MIN	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0.31	0.351 elite	—
Josh Bell (DH)	MIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.334 above average	—
Brandon Nimmo (RF)	TEX	5 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.34 elite	—
Brooks Lee (3B)	MIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.277 weak	—
Kaelen Culpepper (SS)	MIN	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.298 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.056	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.654	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.052	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.49	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.68-3.87	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.51	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.68-3.87	5-4	-0.183	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	4-5	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIN	Royce Lewis	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.967
MIN	Kody Clemens	batter / 2B	deboosted	predicted_2B 1.844
TEX	Brandon Nimmo	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -1.68
MIN	Walker Jenkins	batter / CF	worse	predicted_RBI 1.55
TEX	Corey Seager	batter / SS	better	predicted_AB -1.49
TEX	Nicky Lopez	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_H 1.49
MIN	Alan Roden	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB 1.433
MIN	Josh Bell	batter / DH	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.35

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIN
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=10).	MIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Alan Roden: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Walker Jenkins: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Brooks Lee: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Victor Caratini: SO current=1 box=2; Kaelen Culpepper: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	MIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=5).	TEX
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wyatt Langford: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=3; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Alejandro Osuna: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Danny Jansen: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	TEX
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, and exactly which games it would help versus hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

Day over day: did it improve or worsen

Compared against packet 20260925. Last recorded change: v4.30.0 (2026-09-08) Hitter shrinkage is derived from the between-hitter spread rather than fitted to slate error, so an established extreme profile is no longer flattened toward the league.

Metric	Prior	Current	Δ	Result
brier_score	0.2407	0.2413	+0.000605	regressed
accuracy	0.5882	0.5932	+0.005	improved
team_run_mae	2.5168	2.6314	+0.1146	regressed
total_run_mae	3.6387	3.8559	+0.2172	regressed
calibration_error	0.0736	0.0876	+0.014	regressed
starter_er_mae	1.74	1.7895	+0.0495	regressed
starter_outs_mae	3.648	3.9123	+0.2643	regressed

Deep slate report — 20260926

Process, end to end

Slate summary

What drove the losses

Source coverage receipt

High-level causal issue register

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Probability lineage and calibration

Score distribution and margin compression

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (13)

ARI@SDMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

ATL@MIAHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CIN@TORMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CLE@KCHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

COL@CHWMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

HOU@OAKHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

LAA@SEAHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

LAD@SFHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

NYM@WASMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

PIT@DETMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)