Deep slate report 20260920

Which reports actually fed the diagnosis. A source shown as missing was not silently assumed.

High-level causal issue register

Source	Status	Evidence supplied	Path	Bytes
prediction review	loaded	official outcomes and scoring errors	/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260920.json	380574
forensic deep audit	loaded	probability, provenance, starter and decision contracts	/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260920.json	241166
continuous learning	loaded	pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage, score distribution, and official starter comparisons	/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260920.json	2533568
detailed report	loaded	full game and simulation rendering	/app/output/reports/detailed_20260920.html	357259
ultra detailed player audit	loaded	player-level prediction trace	/app/output/reports/20260920_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html	32696586
structural audit	loaded	all invariant findings	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260920.html	1904415
integrity revision audit	missing	post-Luna remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260920_integrity_revision.html	n/a

Deterministic findings across data integrity, model validation, calibration, score distribution, pipeline stages, simulation, and coverage. Critical is reserved for broken evidence or an unexplained contract violation; high marks material model/process risk. Each row pairs the action to take (Do this) with the wrong conclusion to avoid (Don't conclude).

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

A finding that has repeated at or beyond the escalation streak is no longer single-slate noise. It carries its target registered lever and an action-oriented guardrail.

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Every stored stage is scored against the same official finals. A later recovery remains visible; it does not erase an unstable intermediate flip.

Probability lineage and calibration

All columns are pick-side probabilities, so away favorites are not accidentally compared using home-side semantics.

Score distribution and margin compression

Narrow predicted margins next to wide actual margins is the signature the score-variance tail is too tight.

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

Severity	Domain	Finding and evidence	Affected	Action & guardrail
HIGH	artifact_integrity	Canonical artifact warning requires reconciliation structural audit totals: {'critical': 0, 'error': 0, 'warning': 2, 'info': 116}	slate-wide	Do thisFix the flagged stat or presentation contract before treating this slate as clean evidence. Don't concludeA warning flags a display or contract issue; it does not prove the model picked the wrong side.
HIGH	pipeline_stages	An intermediate stage materially degraded winner direction historical_ml → variance_applied changed winner accuracy by -0.2000 (-3 hits)	MIA@SD, MIN@LAA, PHI@NYM	Do thisList the exact games whose winner flipped at this stage, and keep both the before-stage and after-stage picks in the trace. Don't concludeEven if a later stage recovers the pick, this unstable step is still a risk; do not treat it as harmless.
HIGH	calibration	Published confidence buckets were poorly aligned on this slate weighted absolute calibration error 0.3184 across 15 games	ATL@HOU, BOS@TB, CHC@CIN, DET@CHW, KC@PIT, MIA@SD, MIL@BAL, MIN@LAA, NYY@ARI, OAK@CLE, PHI@NYM, SEA@COL, SF@LAD, TOR@TEX, WAS@STL	Do thisWatch the same confidence buckets over the full rolling window before changing any calibration weight. Don't concludeA single slate has far too few games to establish a stable calibration curve.
HIGH	model_validation	Validated run models explain very little holdout variance home/away/total R² = 0.0082/0.0273/0.0092	ATL@HOU, BOS@TB, CHC@CIN, DET@CHW, KC@PIT, MIA@SD, MIL@BAL, MIN@LAA, NYY@ARI, OAK@CLE, PHI@NYM, SEA@COL, SF@LAD, TOR@TEX, WAS@STL	Do thisTreat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails. Don't concludeA small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.
INFO	coverage	Every settled game received structural QA 15/15 games structurally audited	ATL@HOU, BOS@TB, CHC@CIN, DET@CHW, KC@PIT, MIA@SD, MIL@BAL, MIN@LAA, NYY@ARI, OAK@CLE, PHI@NYM, SEA@COL, SF@LAD, TOR@TEX, WAS@STL	Do thisKeep the per-game audit receipt in every report. Don't concludeFull audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.
INFO	probability_lineage	Material calibrated-to-published movements have recorded lineage 10 material movement(s), all explained by named score-coherence and/or recency transformations	ATL@HOU, CHC@CIN, DET@CHW, KC@PIT, MIA@SD, NYY@ARI, OAK@CLE, PHI@NYM, SEA@COL, SF@LAD	Do thisKeep showing every probability layer and the named transformation between them. Don't concludeA published probability above the calibrated one is not a governor bypass when a recorded transformation explains it.
INFO	simulation	Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate flip candidates 0; published flips 0	ATL@HOU, BOS@TB, CHC@CIN, DET@CHW, KC@PIT, MIA@SD, MIL@BAL, MIN@LAA, NYY@ARI, OAK@CLE, PHI@NYM, SEA@COL, SF@LAD, TOR@TEX, WAS@STL	Do thisMeasure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping. Don't concludeZero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Finding	Persistence	Target lever(s)	Direction	Guardrail
pipeline_winner_instability	3 consecutive · 5 in window	code/diagnostic — no parameter	preserve base_ml_winner before integer rounding (code fix)	pipeline_winner_instability has persisted 3 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
simulation_inert_on_slate	11 consecutive · 11 in window	simulation.allow_score	confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping	simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
weak_run_model_signal	11 consecutive · 11 in window	training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate	investigate features/target via isolated training backtest (manual)	weak_run_model_signal has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Finding	Consecutive slates	Incidence	Present now	Fix type
high_raw_probability_cluster	0	2/11	no	param
pipeline_winner_instability	3	5/11	yes	code/diagnostic
score_margin_compression	0	1/11	no	param
simulation_inert_on_slate	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic
single_slate_calibration_instability	2	7/11	yes	param
weak_run_model_signal	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic

Metric	Direction	Series (old → new)
winner_accuracy	flat	[0.6, 0.6667, 0.5333, 0.6, 0.7, 0.4, 0.6667, 0.4444, 0.6667, 0.7333, 0.6]
weighted_calibration_error	regressing	[0.1171, 0.2091, 0.1711, 0.0827, 0.2812, 0.2795, 0.1661, 0.1016, 0.1247, 0.3458, 0.3184]
margin_bias	improving	[-1.0, -2.933, -2.667, -1.8, -0.4, -1.667, -1.133, -2.111, -2.0, -0.667, -1.533]
team_run_error_on_losses	regressing	[6.5, 5.0, 6.143, 5.0, 6.333, 5.556, 6.4, 3.6, 5.2, 6.5, 6.5]

Stage	Winner hits	Accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
historical_ml	12/15	80%	2.465	2.744	3.425
variance_applied	9/15	60%	2.5	2.867	3.533
enhanced_prediction	9/15	60%	2.867	3.2	3.467
embedded_savant_run_environment	9/15	60%	2.867	3.467	3.733
fundamental_edge_target_review	9/15	60%	2.9	3.533	3.8
capped_target	9/15	60%	2.9	3.533	3.8
simulation_result	9/15	60%	2.9	3.533	3.8
published_final	9/15	60%	2.9	3.533	3.8

Transition	Δ accuracy	Δ hits	Δ team-run MAE	Δ margin MAE	Games whose winner/tie changed
historical_ml → variance_applied	-0.2	-3	0.0352	0.1085	MIA@SD: SD → TIE; MIN@LAA: MIN → TIE; NYY@ARI: NYY → TIE; PHI@NYM: PHI → TIE
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction	0	0	0.3667	-0.0666	ATL@HOU: HOU → ATL; MIA@SD: TIE → SD; MIN@LAA: TIE → LAA; NYY@ARI: TIE → NYY; PHI@NYM: TIE → NYM; TOR@TEX: TOR → TEX; WAS@STL: STL → WAS
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment	0	0	0	0.2666	WAS@STL: WAS → TIE
embedded_savant_run_environment → fundamental_edge_target_review	0	0	0.0333	0.0667	WAS@STL: TIE → WAS
fundamental_edge_target_review → capped_target	0	0	0	0
capped_target → simulation_result	0	0	0	0
simulation_result → published_final	0	0	0	0

Game	Outcome	Raw model	Calibrated	Governor	Score coherence	Published	Explanation
ATL@HOU	hit	0.5664	0.6219	0.6219	0.6219	0.58	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
BOS@TB	hit	0.5964	0.5716	0.5716	0.5716	0.5517	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CHC@CIN	hit	0.6623	0.7074	0.7074	0.7074	0.56	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
DET@CHW	miss	0.6209	0.617	0.617	0.5964	0.56	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
KC@PIT	hit	0.6997	0.6257	0.6257	0.6008	0.5728	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
MIA@SD	hit	0.6539	0.689	0.689	0.6689	0.58	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
MIL@BAL	hit	0.8086	0.6292	0.6292	0.6292	0.6292	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
MIN@LAA	miss	0.5	0.5074	0.5074	0.5074	0.5054	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
NYY@ARI	miss	0.5543	0.6152	0.6152	0.6152	0.5449	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
OAK@CLE	hit	0.7332	0.7084	0.7084	0.7084	0.58	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
PHI@NYM	miss	0.5446	0.5386	0.5386	0.5386	0.5173	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SEA@COL	hit	0.6611	0.6741	0.6741	0.6615	0.56	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SF@LAD	hit	0.7823	0.686	0.686	0.6674	0.58	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
TOR@TEX	miss	0.5	0.5594	0.5594	0.5594	0.5505	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
WAS@STL	miss	0.5	0.5296	0.5296	0.5296	0.5125	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail

Sides analyzed	Broke on pitching	Broke on offense	Both	Variance	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj
30	2	10	6	12	-0.89	-1

Game	Trained p(home)	Blended p(home)	Blend favoured	Published p(home)	Published side	Artifact says winner changed	Outcome
MIN@LAA	0.487	0.498	away	0.505	home	yes	miss
TOR@TEX	0.352	0.458	away	0.55	home	yes	miss
WAS@STL	0.59	0.528	home	0.488	away	yes	miss

Slate	Games	Winner acc	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj	Sides broke on pitching	Sides broke on offense
20260919	15	0.733	1.36	-0.10	8	7
20260918	15	0.667	3.95	0.30	6	5
20260917	9	0.444	2.16	-0.22	2	3
20260916	15	0.667	2.09	-0.23	4	5
20260915	15	0.400	-1.58	-0.70	1	12
20260914	10	0.700	-0.48	-0.20	2	6
20260913	15	0.600	-0.07	0.03	2	8
20260912	15	0.533	1.35	0.57	6	7
20260911	15	0.667	0.99	0.00	4	9
20260910	5	0.600	-3.19	-1.70		8
20260909	15	0.667	3.36	1.07	8	7
20260908	15	0.733	-0.15	-0.23	7	15

Game	Pred margin	Actual margin	Pred − actual
ATL@HOU	2	2	0
BOS@TB	1	4	-3
CHC@CIN	4	8	-4
DET@CHW	1	7	-6
KC@PIT	1	1	0
MIA@SD	2	4	-2
MIL@BAL	6	3	3
MIN@LAA	1	8	-7
NYY@ARI	2	4	-2
OAK@CLE	3	1	2
PHI@NYM	1	5	-4
SEA@COL	3	1	2
SF@LAD	4	2	2
TOR@TEX	2	5	-3
WAS@STL	1	2	-1

ATL@HOUHIT

Predicted: ATL 5-3 (conf -0.16, moderate)Actual: ATL 4-2Brier 0.176total bias +2

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.16 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.058, recent -1.026, pitcher -0.032, composite -1.270
confidence pipeline reached 0.622 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.420
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Hunter Brown (HOU) allowed 4 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 4)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
ATL	Martín Pérez	2 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 13 outs	-1
HOU	Hunter Brown	4 ER / 17 outs	0 ER / 15 outs	-4

Decision internals: run factors home×0.998 / away×1.03; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Mike Yastrzemski (ATL LF): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Matt Olson (ATL 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Yainer Diaz (HOU C): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Brewer Hicklen (ATL RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Yordan Alvarez (HOU LF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.79]

Starter miss: Hunter Brown (HOU) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 6.35 (0 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

Per-pitch matchup fields are not populated in the current feeds, so this is reconstructed from the settled box: each starter's workload-adjusted ERA, the bullpen share behind him, and the opposing lineup's real production against its projection, with the hitters who beat that projection named.

AWAY pitching

Martín Pérez (ATL) threw 13 outs, 1 ER = 2.08 ERA against a projected 3.18 ERA (-1.1 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 8 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Yainer Diaz: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.303, below average - a good day, not a model error
Jose Altuve: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.76 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.273, weak - a good day, not a model error
Brice Matthews: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.26, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Hunter Brown (HOU) threw 15 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 6.35 ERA (-6.35 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Mike Yastrzemski: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error
Mauricio Dubón: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material. exp BB and exp SO are the continuous rate expectations. The integer beside each is a simulation draw reconciled to the opposing simulated batting box, so it is not the line that ranks pitchers: on the 2026-09-07 slate the integers published 39 walks and 121 strikeouts against 51 and 130 real, while these expectations landed on 50.4 and 132.6.)

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
ATL	Martín Pérez (Starter)	13 / 17	2.08 / 3.18	1 / 2	6 / 4	1 / 0	2 / 2	2.6	2 / 5	3.43	venue away: 4.53 vs 1.97 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 29 prior appearances this season
HOU	Hunter Brown (Starter)	15 / 17	0 / 6.35 (-6.35)	0 / 4	3 / 6	0 / 0	2 / 1	2.21	10 / 5	6.58	venue home: 3.55 vs 3.26 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.03 (strong) · 18 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Mike Yastrzemski (LF)	ATL	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.87	0.307 average	no signal
Matt Olson (1B)	ATL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.353 elite	bad day
Yainer Diaz (C)	HOU	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.4	0.303 below average	good day
Brewer Hicklen (RF)	ATL	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-0.8	0.365 elite	bad day
Yordan Alvarez (LF)	HOU	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.79	0.442 elite	bad day
Jose Altuve (DH)	HOU	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.76	0.273 weak	good day
Isaac Paredes (3B)	HOU	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	-0.47	0.322 above average	—
Christian Walker (1B)	HOU	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.299 below average	—
Brice Matthews (CF)	HOU	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.26 weak	—
Cam Smith (RF)	HOU	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.317 average	—
Ronald Acuña Jr. (DH)	ATL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.31	0.369 elite	—
Mauricio Dubón (3B)	ATL	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.31	0.307 average	—
Michael Harris II (CF)	ATL	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.19	0.339 above average	—
Drake Baldwin (C)	ATL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0	0.368 elite	—
Ozzie Albies (2B)	ATL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.28 weak	—
Ha-Seong Kim (SS)	ATL	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.221 weak	—
Jeremy Peña (SS)	HOU	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.327 above average	—
Nick Allen (2B)	HOU	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.25 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.058	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-1.026	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.032	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.27	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.14-4.63	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	0.58	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.14-4.63	4-5	-0.513	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	5-3	3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-3	5-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-3	5-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-3	5-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-3	5-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
ATL	Drake Baldwin	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.8
ATL	Michael Harris II	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.67
ATL	Mauricio Dubón	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 1.521
HOU	Nick Allen	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
ATL	Ozzie Albies	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB -1.43
HOU	Isaac Paredes	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 1.422
ATL	Mike Yastrzemski	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.325
HOU	Jeremy Peña	batter / SS	worse	predicted_H -1.27

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ATL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=13).	ATL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Drake Baldwin: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Michael Harris II: R current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ha-Seong Kim: SO current=1 box=2; Mike Yastrzemski: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2	ATL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=7).	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=2).	HOU
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yordan Alvarez: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Allen: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brice Matthews: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	HOU
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

BOS@TBHIT

Predicted: TB 4-5 (conf +0.10, moderate)Actual: TB 1-5Brier 0.201total bias +3

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.10 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias +3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.343, recent +0.634, pitcher -0.008, composite +0.509
confidence pipeline reached 0.572 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.552
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 3 (9 vs 6)
BOS offense over-projected by 3
Griffin Jax (TB) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
BOS	Patrick Sandoval	4 ER / 14 outs	5 ER / 21 outs	1
TB	Griffin Jax	3 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 15 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×1.081 / away×1.089; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Mickey Gasper (BOS DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Junior Caminero (TB 3B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Trevor Story (BOS SS): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Nick Sogard (BOS 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Taylor Walls (TB SS): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Griffin Jax (TB) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 5.40 (0 ER in 15 outs); he faced a strong offense (opponent run factor 1.09, bucket average).

What to do: Consider raising context.opponent_strength_weight; validate across the rolling window before promotion.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Patrick Sandoval (BOS) threw 21 outs, 5 ER = 6.43 ERA against a projected 7.71 ERA (-1.28 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 3 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Griffin Jax (TB) threw 15 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (-5.4 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Trevor Story: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.253, weak - a good day, not a model error
Caleb Durbin: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.293, below average - a good day, not a model error
Nate Eaton: 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.283, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
BOS	Patrick Sandoval (Starter)	21 / 14	6.43 / 7.71	5 / 4	4 / 5	1 / 1	2 / 1	2.57	5 / 8	5.01	venue away: 5.6 vs 4.45 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.08 (average) · 12 prior appearances this season
TB	Griffin Jax (Starter)	15 / 15	0 / 5.4 (-5.40)	0 / 3	3 / 2	0 / 1	2 / 3	1.12	5 / 6	4.33	venue home: 3.61 vs 3.14 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.09 (average) · 32 prior appearances this season
TB	Cole Sulser (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.19	0 / 1	0.77
TB	Kevin Kelly (Setup Man)	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.11	0 / 0	0.86

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Mickey Gasper (DH)	BOS	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-1.4	0.36 elite	bad day
Junior Caminero (3B)	TB	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.364 elite	bad day
Trevor Story (SS)	BOS	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.253 weak	good day
Nick Sogard (1B)	BOS	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.312 average	no signal
Taylor Walls (SS)	TB	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.251 weak	projection too high
Yandy Díaz (DH)	TB	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	-0.78	0.347 elite	bad day
Adley Rutschman (C)	BOS	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.328 above average	bad day
Caleb Durbin (3B)	BOS	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.47	0.293 below average	—
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2B)	BOS	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.301 below average	—
Ryan Vilade (1B)	TB	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.334 above average	—
Ben Williamson (2B)	TB	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.29 below average	—
Nick Fortes (C)	TB	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.278 weak	—
Nate Eaton (RF)	BOS	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.283 below average	—
Jarren Duran (CF)	BOS	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.298 below average	—
Roman Anthony (LF)	BOS	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.35 elite	—
Jonny DeLuca (CF)	TB	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.26 weak	—
Chandler Simpson (LF)	TB	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.266 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.343	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.634	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.008	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.509	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.93-4.98	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.552	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.93-4.98	4-5	-0.053	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TB	Ryan Vilade	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 2.317
TB	Junior Caminero	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 2.196
BOS	Patrick Sandoval	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
TB	Chandler Simpson	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.93
TB	Yandy Díaz	batter / DH	better	predicted_2B 1.83
BOS	Adley Rutschman	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.8
BOS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 1.76
TB	Jonny DeLuca	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 1.674

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BOS
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=5).	BOS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Roman Anthony: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nate Eaton: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Trevor Story: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0	BOS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=6; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=12; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	TB
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan Vilade: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ben Williamson: R current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Taylor Walls: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	TB
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CHC@CINHIT

Predicted: CHC 8-4 (conf -0.12, moderate)Actual: CHC 9-1Brier 0.194total bias +2

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.693, recent -0.934, pitcher -0.059, composite -2.014
confidence pipeline reached 0.707 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.440
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

CIN offense over-projected by 3
David Peterson (CHC) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CHC	David Peterson	4 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	-3
CIN	Rhett Lowder	4 ER / 13 outs	5 ER / 9 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.022 / away×1.081; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Sal Stewart (CIN 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Tyler Stephenson (CIN DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Pedro Ramirez (CHC 2B): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Michael Conforto (CHC DH): 1-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
JJ Bleday (CIN RF): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Starter miss: Rhett Lowder (CIN) posted 15.00 ERA vs projected 8.31 (5 ER in 9 outs); he faced a strong offense (opponent run factor 1.08, bucket strong).

What to do: Consider raising context.opponent_strength_weight; validate across the rolling window before promotion.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

David Peterson (CHC) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-5.7 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 4 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

JJ Bleday: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.339, above average - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Rhett Lowder (CIN) threw 9 outs, 5 ER = 15 ERA against a projected 8.31 ERA (6.69 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 9 runs on 13 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Pedro Ramirez: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.289, below average - a good day, not a model error
Michael Conforto: 1-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.331, above average - real projection error
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.92 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.375, elite - real projection error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CHC	David Peterson (Starter)	18 / 15	1.5 / 7.2 (-5.70)	1 / 4	3 / 6	1 / 2	1 / 1	3.12	7 / 3	5.29	venue away: 4.5 vs 6.34 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (weak) · 30 prior appearances this season
CHC	Caleb Thielbar (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.43	1 / 1	1.31
CIN	Rhett Lowder (Starter)	9 / 13	15 / 8.31 (+6.69)	5 / 4	6 / 6	0 / 2	3 / 1	2.18	3 / 6	3.62	venue home: 4.41 vs 7.44 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.08 (strong) · 27 prior appearances this season
CIN	Luis Mey (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.72	1 / 1	1.55

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Sal Stewart (1B)	CIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-1.4	0.348 elite	bad day
Tyler Stephenson (DH)	CIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.11	0.33 above average	bad day
Pedro Ramirez (2B)	CHC	5 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.289 below average	good day
Michael Conforto (DH)	CHC	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.331 above average	projection too low
JJ Bleday (RF)	CIN	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.93	0.339 above average	projection too low
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)	CHC	5 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.92	0.375 elite	projection too low
Dane Myers (CF)	CIN	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.312 average	no signal
Oswaldo Cabrera (LF)	CIN	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.148 weak	—
Ian Happ (LF)	CHC	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.45	0.317 average	—
Nico Hoerner (SS)	CHC	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.322 above average	—
Alex Bregman (3B)	CHC	1 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.322 above average	—
Elly De La Cruz (SS)	CIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.377 elite	—
Seiya Suzuki (RF)	CHC	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.29	0.338 above average	—
Michael Busch (1B)	CHC	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0	0.333 above average	—
Miguel Amaya (C)	CHC	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.295 below average	—
Matt McLain (2B)	CIN	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.297 below average	—
Will Banfield (C)	CIN	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.171 weak	—
Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B)	CIN	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.294 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.693	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.934	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.059	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-2.014	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.68-3.95	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7-4	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	8-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.68-3.95	5-4	0.273	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	7-4	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-4	8-4	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8-4	8-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8-4	8-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8-4	8-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CIN	Sal Stewart	batter / 1B	deboosted	predicted_RBI 2.44
CHC	Pedro Ramirez	batter / 2B	better	predicted_SO 2.414
CIN	Rhett Lowder	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_H 2
CIN	Luis Mey	pitcher / Setup Man	better	predicted_H -2
CIN	Matt McLain	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 1.91
CHC	Ian Happ	batter / LF	worse	predicted_H 1.69
CHC	Michael Conforto	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.57
CIN	Will Banfield	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB 1.5

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=12; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	CHC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Michael Conforto: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8).	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=6).	CIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Oswaldo Cabrera: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Sal Stewart: RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Dane Myers: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Will Banfield: AB current=3 box=4	CIN
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

DET@CHWMISS

Predicted: DET 5-4 (conf -0.12, moderate)Actual: CHW 1-8Brier 0.314total bias +0

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 8; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.396, recent -0.550, pitcher -0.036, composite -0.614
confidence pipeline reached 0.617 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.440
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

DET offense over-projected by 4
CHW offense under-projected by 4
Davis Martin (CHW) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 3)
committed to DET at 0.12 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
DET	Troy Melton	3 ER / 18 outs	4 ER / 11 outs	1
CHW	Davis Martin	3 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 13 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×1.013 / away×1.048; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Spencer Torkelson (DET 1B): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.64]

Starter miss: Troy Melton (DET) posted 9.82 ERA vs projected 4.50 (4 ER in 11 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Troy Melton (DET) threw 11 outs, 4 ER = 9.82 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (5.32 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 1 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 0 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 0 runs / 0 hits (0 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Davis Martin (CHW) at a projected 5.4 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 6 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Spencer Torkelson: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error
Brett Callahan: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.303, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
DET	Troy Melton (Starter)	11 / 18	9.82 / 4.5 (+5.32)	4 / 3	4 / 4	0 / 0	3 / 4	2.04	4 / 4	4.21	venue away: 2.27 vs 2.81 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 19 prior appearances this season
DET	Tyler Holton (Setup Man)	1 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.3	0 / 0	0.98

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Spencer Torkelson (1B)	DET	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.64	0.313 average	no signal
Kevin McGonigle (DH)	DET	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	-0.47	0.36 elite	—
Hao-Yu Lee (3B)	DET	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.303 below average	—
Gleyber Torres (2B)	DET	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.326 above average	—
Brett Callahan (RF)	DET	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.303 below average	—
Riley Greene (LF)	DET	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.374 elite	—
Max Clark (CF)	DET	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.318 average	—
John Peck (SS)	DET	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.341 elite	—
Eduardo Valencia (C)	DET	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.01	0.337 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.396	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.55	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.036	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.614	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.85-3.9	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.85-3.9	5-4	0.052	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	5-4	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
DET	Hao-Yu Lee	batter / 3B	better	predicted_AB 2.03
DET	Spencer Torkelson	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.74
CHW	Chase Meidroth	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 1.66
CHW	Munetaka Murakami	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO -1.558
CHW	Kyle Teel	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.49
DET	Brett Callahan	batter / RF	better	predicted_H 1.449
CHW	Sam Antonacci	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.391
DET	Riley Greene	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB -1.23

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHW
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	DET
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	CHW
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Teel: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: SO current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7).	DET
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Eduardo Valencia: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gleyber Torres: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brett Callahan: H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Max Clark: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; John Peck: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	DET
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

KC@PITHIT

Predicted: PIT 2-3 (conf +0.15, moderate)Actual: PIT 3-4Brier 0.183total bias -2

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.15 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.761, recent +0.782, pitcher -0.005, composite +0.783
confidence pipeline reached 0.626 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.573
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
KC	Michael Wacha	2 ER / 19 outs	2 ER / 17 outs	0
PIT	Lake Bachar	0 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 3 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.994 / away×1; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Rafael Flores Jr. (PIT C): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.04]
Luke Maile (KC C): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Maikel Garcia (KC 3B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Nick Loftin (KC RF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.64]
Brandon Lowe (PIT 2B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.6]

Starter miss: Lake Bachar (PIT) posted 9.00 ERA vs projected 0.00 (1 ER in 3 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Michael Wacha (KC) threw 17 outs, 2 ER = 3.18 ERA against a projected 2.84 ERA (0.34 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 2 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 8 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Rafael Flores Jr.: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+2.04 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.344, elite - real projection error
Oneil Cruz: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.352, elite - real projection error
Ryan O'Hearn: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Lake Bachar (PIT) threw 3 outs, 1 ER = 9 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (9 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 9 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 8 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 7 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Luke Maile: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.213, weak - a good day, not a model error
Salvador Perez: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.309, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
KC	Michael Wacha (Starter)	17 / 19	3.18 / 2.84	2 / 2	4 / 4	1 / 0	4 / 3	1.44	5 / 5	4.86	venue away: 3.7 vs 2.93 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.99 (average) · 30 prior appearances this season
KC	Nate Pearson (Setup Man)	2 / 3	27 / 0 (+27.00)	2 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.45	1 / 2	0.91
PIT	Lake Bachar (Starter)	3 / 15	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 5	2.63	1 / 8	4.5	venue home: 1.54 vs 2.53 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (weak) · 50 prior appearances this season
PIT	Mason Montgomery (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 13.5 (-13.50)	0 / 2	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.43	1 / 1	1.49
PIT	Yohan Ramírez (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.42	4 / 2	1.2

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Rafael Flores Jr. (C)	PIT	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2.04	0.344 elite	projection too low
Luke Maile (C)	KC	4 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.78	0.213 weak	good day
Maikel Garcia (3B)	KC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.312 average	no signal
Nick Loftin (RF)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.64	0.293 below average	projection too high
Brandon Lowe (2B)	PIT	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.6	0.329 above average	bad day
Oneil Cruz (CF)	PIT	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.6	0.352 elite	projection too low
Salvador Perez (1B)	KC	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.309 average	—
Michael Massey (2B)	KC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.307 average	—
Nick Gonzales (3B)	PIT	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.326 above average	—
John Rave (LF)	KC	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.315 average	—
Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.377 elite	—
Ryan O'Hearn (DH)	PIT	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.316 average	—
Spencer Horwitz (1B)	PIT	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	-0.33	0.312 average	—
Bryan Reynolds (LF)	PIT	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.31	0.353 elite	—
Jake Mangum (RF)	PIT	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.289 below average	—
Jac Caglianone (DH)	KC	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.13	0.355 elite	—
Tyler Tolbert (CF)	KC	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.295 below average	—
Konnor Griffin (SS)	PIT	5 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.306 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.761	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.782	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.005	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.783	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.39-5.6	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	2-3	0.573	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	2-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.39-5.6	3-6	0.794	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-6	2-3	-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	2-3	2-3	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-3	2-3	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-3	2-3	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-3	2-3	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
KC	Bobby Witt Jr.	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -4.7
KC	Michael Massey	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 2.418
KC	Maikel Garcia	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 2.373
PIT	Jake Mangum	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 2.267
KC	Salvador Perez	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 2.208
KC	John Rave	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 1.69
PIT	Ryan O'Hearn	batter / DH	worse	predicted_BB 1.673
KC	Tyler Tolbert	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	KC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PIT
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=10).	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=2; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=14; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	KC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Nick Loftin: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; John Rave: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=4 box=0, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=5; Tyler Tolbert: AB current=3 box=4; Luke Maile: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Maikel Garcia: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=40; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11).	PIT
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brandon Lowe: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Rafael Flores Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Spencer Horwitz: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2	PIT
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

MIA@SDHIT

Predicted: SD 4-6 (conf +0.16, moderate)Actual: SD 3-7Brier 0.176total bias +0

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.16 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.567, recent +1.358, pitcher +0.021, composite +1.056
confidence pipeline reached 0.689 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.580
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIA	Sandy Alcantara	6 ER / 16 outs	4 ER / 18 outs	-2
SD	Walker Buehler	2 ER / 14 outs	3 ER / 20 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×1 / away×0.979; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jake Cronenworth (SD 3B): 3-for-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 3.11]
Griffin Conine (MIA RF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Samad Taylor (SD LF): 3-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
Jackson Merrill (SD CF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Manny Machado (SD DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Sandy Alcantara (MIA) posted 6.00 ERA vs projected 10.12 (4 ER in 18 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (4.45 ERA there vs 3.14 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Sandy Alcantara (MIA) threw 18 outs, 4 ER = 6 ERA against a projected 10.12 ERA (-4.12 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 10 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jake Cronenworth: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI [+3.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.273, weak - a good day, not a model error
Samad Taylor: 3-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.32, average - a good day, not a model error
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.378, elite - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Walker Buehler (SD) threw 20 outs, 3 ER = 4.05 ERA against a projected 3.86 ERA (0.19 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 4 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Javier Sanoja: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.291, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
MIA	Sandy Alcantara (Starter)	18 / 16	6 / 10.12 (-4.12)	4 / 6	8 / 7	1 / 0	1 / 2	1.87	3 / 4	4.08	venue away: 4.45 vs 3.14 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 33 prior appearances this season
SD	Walker Buehler (Starter)	20 / 14	4.05 / 3.86	3 / 2	3 / 4	1 / 1	2 / 0	1.32	6 / 6	3.67	venue home: 4.11 vs 5.13 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 30 prior appearances this season
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 4	0 / 13.5 (-13.50)	0 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 2	0.2	0 / 0	1.14
SD	Mason Miller (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.34	0 / 0	1.86

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Jake Cronenworth (3B)	SD	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	5 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	3.11	0.273 weak	good day
Griffin Conine (RF)	MIA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.364 elite	bad day
Samad Taylor (LF)	SD	3 / 3	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.25	0.32 average	no signal
Jackson Merrill (CF)	SD	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.93	0.35 elite	bad day
Manny Machado (DH)	SD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.332 above average	bad day
Ty France (1B)	SD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.335 above average	bad day
Javier Sanoja (2B)	MIA	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.62	0.291 below average	good day
Fernando Tatis Jr. (2B)	SD	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.6	0.378 elite	projection too low
Heriberto Hernández (LF)	MIA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.349 elite	—
Jakob Marsee (CF)	MIA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.314 average	—
Otto Lopez (SS)	MIA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.328 above average	—
Graham Pauley (3B)	MIA	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.249 weak	—
Ethan Salas (C)	SD	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.158 weak	—
Kyle Stowers (DH)	MIA	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.323 above average	—
Deyvison De Los Santos (1B)	MIA	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.17 weak	—
Joe Mack (C)	MIA	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.285 below average	—
Dustin Harris (RF)	SD	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.32 average	—
Xander Bogaerts (SS)	SD	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0	0.323 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.567	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	1.358	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.021	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.056	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.05-4.18	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	0.58	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.05-4.18	4-4	-0.131	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	4-6	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	4-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	4-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	4-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	4-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SD	Jackson Merrill	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.3
MIA	Sandy Alcantara	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
MIA	Otto Lopez	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.83
MIA	Deyvison De Los Santos	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
SD	Ethan Salas	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
MIA	Kyle Stowers	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO -1.359
MIA	Graham Pauley	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 1.306
SD	Samad Taylor	batter / LF	worse	predicted_H -1.14

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=3, sim=4).	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2).	MIA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Griffin Conine: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Deyvison De Los Santos: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Otto Lopez: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Graham Pauley: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=8).	SD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jake Cronenworth: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Samad Taylor: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0; Ty France: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	SD
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

MIL@BALHIT

Predicted: MIL 7-1 (conf -0.26, strong)Actual: MIL 3-0Brier 0.137total bias +5

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.26 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias +5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.358, recent -1.114, pitcher -0.002, composite -2.108
confidence pipeline reached 0.629 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.371
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 5 (8 vs 3)
MIL offense over-projected by 4

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIL	Jacob Misiorowski	1 ER / 18 outs	0 ER / 9 outs	-1
BAL	Brandon Young	3 ER / 17 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.963 / away×0.965; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Pete Alonso (BAL 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Brice Turang (MIL 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Dylan Beavers (BAL LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Colton Cowser (BAL CF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
William Contreras (MIL C): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) threw 9 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 1.5 ERA (-1.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 6 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Colton Cowser: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.315, average - a good day, not a model error
Carlos Narváez: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.259, weak - a good day, not a model error
Coby Mayo: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Brandon Young (BAL) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (-1.76 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 6 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

William Contreras: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.336, above average - real projection error
Cooper Pratt: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error
Garrett Mitchell: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.354, elite - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
MIL	Jacob Misiorowski (Starter)	9 / 18	0 / 1.5	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 3	2.14	4 / 8	7.35	venue away: 2.23 vs 1.61 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.96 (average) · 28 prior appearances this season
MIL	Trevor Megill (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.28	1 / 0	1.08
BAL	Brandon Young (Starter)	18 / 17	3 / 4.76	2 / 3	3 / 6	1 / 0	3 / 1	2.47	9 / 7	5.23	venue home: 3.69 vs 3.27 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (strong) · 26 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Pete Alonso (1B)	BAL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.73	0.396 elite	bad day
Brice Turang (2B)	MIL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-1.11	0.346 elite	bad day
Dylan Beavers (LF)	BAL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 2	-1.11	0.297 below average	projection too high
Colton Cowser (CF)	BAL	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 2	0.94	0.315 average	no signal
William Contreras (C)	MIL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.93	0.336 above average	projection too low
Christian Yelich (DH)	MIL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-0.8	0.311 average	no signal
Cooper Pratt (SS)	MIL	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.8	0.316 average	no signal
Garrett Mitchell (CF)	MIL	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.8	0.354 elite	projection too low
Gunnar Henderson (SS)	BAL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.32 average	no signal
Jake Bauers (1B)	MIL	2 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0.64	0.379 elite	projection too low
Jackson Chourio (LF)	MIL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.6	0.341 elite	bad day
Joey Ortiz (3B)	MIL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	4 / 1	-0.47	0.299 below average	—
Sal Frelick (RF)	MIL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.281 weak	—
Carlos Narváez (C)	BAL	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.259 weak	—
Jeremiah Jackson (2B)	BAL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.287 below average	—
Coby Mayo (3B)	BAL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 2	0.33	0.335 above average	—
Samuel Basallo (DH)	BAL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.321 above average	—
Leody Taveras (RF)	BAL	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.27 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.358	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-1.114	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.002	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-2.108	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.08-2.54	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-2	0.629	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-1	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-1	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-1	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-1	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.08-2.54	5-3	-0.54	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	6-2	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-2	7-1	2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-1	7-1	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-1	7-1	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-1	7-1	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIL	Jake Bauers	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.65
MIL	Joey Ortiz	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 1.598
MIL	Garrett Mitchell	batter / CF	better	predicted_AB -1.47
MIL	Brice Turang	batter / 2B	better	predicted_H 1.26
MIL	William Contreras	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.12
BAL	Pete Alonso	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO -1.072
BAL	Dylan Beavers	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.065
BAL	Leody Taveras	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 1.031

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BAL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=6, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=1; R: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=12, sim=10).	BAL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: SO current=1 box=2; Coby Mayo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Colton Cowser: H current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=0; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=6, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=9).	MIL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: William Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Joey Ortiz: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Bauers: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Yelich: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1; Sal Frelick: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	MIL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

MIN@LAAMISS

Predicted: LAA 4-5 (conf +0.01, toss_up)Actual: MIN 8-0Brier 0.255total bias +1

Root cause: Genuine toss-up that flipped

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 9; total bias +1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.062, recent +0.406, pitcher +0.017, composite +0.353
confidence pipeline reached 0.507 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.505
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

MIN offense under-projected by 4
LAA offense over-projected by 5

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIN	Dean Kremer	2 ER / 14 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-2
LAA	Ryan Johnson	1 ER / 17 outs	3 ER / 14 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×0.945 / away×0.928; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Alan Roden (MIN RF): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.01]
Kody Clemens (MIN 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Mike Trout (LAA DH): 0-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Zach Neto (LAA SS): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Brooks Lee (MIN 3B): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]

Starter miss: Ryan Johnson (LAA) posted 5.79 ERA vs projected 1.59 (3 ER in 14 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Dean Kremer (MIN) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 3.86 ERA (-3.86 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 1 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Christian Moore: 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.225, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Ryan Johnson (LAA) threw 14 outs, 3 ER = 5.79 ERA against a projected 1.59 ERA (4.2 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 13 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 7 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Alan Roden: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI [+2.01 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.342, elite - real projection error
Brooks Lee: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.275, weak - a good day, not a model error
Josh Bell: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.63 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
MIN	Dean Kremer (Starter)	18 / 14	0 / 3.86 (-3.86)	0 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	3 / 2	1.78	8 / 3	4.65	venue away: 6.11 vs 4.71 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.94 (weak) · 15 prior appearances this season
LAA	Ryan Johnson (Starter)	14 / 17	5.79 / 1.59 (+4.20)	3 / 1	7 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 1	2.02	6 / 5	5.13	venue home: 2.92 vs 5.56 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.93 (average) · 20 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Alan Roden (RF)	MIN	5 / 3	3 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	4 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2.01	0.342 elite	projection too low
Kody Clemens (2B)	MIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-1.4	0.335 above average	bad day
Mike Trout (DH)	LAA	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-1.4	0.378 elite	bad day
Zach Neto (SS)	LAA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 2	-1.11	0.312 average	no signal
Brooks Lee (3B)	MIN	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.275 weak	good day
Wade Meckler (LF)	LAA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.31 average	no signal
Josh Bell (DH)	MIN	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.63	0.335 above average	projection too low
Moisés Ballesteros (C)	LAA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.296 below average	—
Jose Siri (CF)	LAA	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 2	-0.47	0.301 below average	—
Walker Jenkins (CF)	MIN	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.319 average	—
Christian Moore (2B)	LAA	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.33	0.225 weak	—
Emmanuel Rodriguez (LF)	MIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.343 elite	—
Denzer Guzman (3B)	LAA	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.269 weak	—
Royce Lewis (1B)	MIN	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.307 average	—
Victor Caratini (C)	MIN	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.309 average	—
Ben Ross (SS)	MIN	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.125 weak	—
Vaughn Grissom (1B)	LAA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.308 average	—
Josh Lowe (RF)	LAA	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.284 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.062	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.406	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.017	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.353	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.28-3.9	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.28-3.9	4-4	0.381	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	4-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIN	Brooks Lee	batter / 3B	deboosted	predicted_AB -2.06
LAA	Christian Moore	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 1.83
MIN	Kody Clemens	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_H 1.63
MIN	Alan Roden	batter / RF	better	predicted_AB 1.5
MIN	Ben Ross	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
LAA	Zach Neto	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO -1.38
MIN	Royce Lewis	batter / 1B	deboosted	predicted_AB -1.36
LAA	Moisés Ballesteros	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 1.227

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=11, sim=7).	LAA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mike Trout: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Lowe: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jose Siri: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=1; Christian Moore: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5).	MIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Alan Roden: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Emmanuel Rodriguez: H current=1 box=0; Walker Jenkins: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Victor Caratini: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1	MIN
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

NYY@ARIMISS

Predicted: NYY 6-4 (conf -0.09, lean)Actual: ARI 4-8Brier 0.297total bias -2

Root cause: Small edge on the losing side

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.09 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.908, recent -0.680, pitcher -0.009, composite -1.050
confidence pipeline reached 0.615 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.455
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

ARI offense under-projected by 4

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
NYY	Will Warren	2 ER / 16 outs	4 ER / 13 outs	2
ARI	Corbin Burnes	2 ER / 12 outs	4 ER / 8 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.02 / away×1.029; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

George Lombard Jr. (NYY SS): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Ben Rice (NYY DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Heliot Ramos (NYY RF): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Spencer Jones (NYY CF): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Starter miss: Will Warren (NYY) posted 8.31 ERA vs projected 3.38 (4 ER in 13 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Will Warren (NYY) threw 13 outs, 4 ER = 8.31 ERA against a projected 3.38 ERA (4.93 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 5 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 0 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 0 runs / 0 hits (0 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Corbin Burnes (ARI) at a projected 4.5 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 8 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

George Lombard Jr.: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.288, below average - a good day, not a model error
Heliot Ramos: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.329, above average - real projection error
Spencer Jones: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
NYY	Will Warren (Starter)	13 / 16	8.31 / 3.38 (+4.93)	4 / 2	6 / 4	0 / 1	3 / 4	1.72	4 / 4	6.02	venue away: 4.09 vs 3.86 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (average) · 30 prior appearances this season
NYY	Brent Headrick (Setup Man)	2 / 3	27 / 18 (+9.00)	2 / 2	1 / 2	1 / 1	1 / 0	0.38	1 / 0	1.28
NYY	Tim Hill (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.24	0 / 0	0.46

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
George Lombard Jr. (SS)	NYY	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.4	0.288 below average	good day
Ben Rice (DH)	NYY	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-1.4	0.376 elite	bad day
Heliot Ramos (RF)	NYY	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.329 above average	projection too low
Spencer Jones (CF)	NYY	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.325 above average	projection too low
José Caballero (3B)	NYY	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.283 below average	—
Austin Wells (C)	NYY	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.47	0.292 below average	—
Cody Bellinger (LF)	NYY	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 0	-0.33	0.339 above average	—
Luis García Jr. (1B)	NYY	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.31	0.345 elite	—
Anthony Volpe (2B)	NYY	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.297 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.908	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.68	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.009	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.05	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.47-4.32	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-4	0.545	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.47-4.32	4-4	-0.144	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	6-4	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-4	6-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-4	6-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-4	6-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-4	6-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
ARI	Ketel Marte	batter / 2B	boosted	predicted_H 2
NYY	Spencer Jones	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.9
ARI	Lars Nootbaar	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.765
NYY	Heliot Ramos	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.583
NYY	José Caballero	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 1.58
NYY	Ben Rice	batter / DH	worse	predicted_BB 1.441
ARI	Gabriel Moreno	batter / C	worse	predicted_H -1.35
ARI	Nolan Arenado	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_H -1.24

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ARI
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYY
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=6, sim=5).	ARI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jesús Sánchez: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Pavin Smith: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	ARI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=6).	NYY
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Spencer Jones: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2	NYY
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

OAK@CLEHIT

Predicted: CLE 4-7 (conf +0.16, moderate)Actual: CLE 0-1Brier 0.176total bias +10

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.16 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 10; total bias +10
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.456, recent +1.358, pitcher -0.004, composite +1.673
confidence pipeline reached 0.708 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.580
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 10 (11 vs 1)
OAK offense over-projected by 4
CLE offense over-projected by 6
Jack Perkins (OAK) allowed 4 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 5)
Gavin Williams (CLE) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
OAK	Jack Perkins	5 ER / 14 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	-4
CLE	Gavin Williams	3 ER / 16 outs	0 ER / 21 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×1.043 / away×1.046; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Shea Langeliers (OAK DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Angel Martínez (CLE LF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Travis Bazzana (CLE 2B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Alika Williams (OAK SS): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Jonah Heim (OAK C): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]

Starter miss: Jack Perkins (OAK) posted 1.50 ERA vs projected 9.64 (1 ER in 18 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Jack Perkins (OAK) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 9.64 ERA (-8.14 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Steven Kwan: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.61 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.324, above average - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Gavin Williams (CLE) threw 21 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 5.06 ERA (-5.06 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 7 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jonah Heim: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.285, below average - a good day, not a model error
Zack Gelof: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
OAK	Jack Perkins (Starter)	18 / 14	1.5 / 9.64 (-8.14)	1 / 5	5 / 8	0 / 1	0 / 0	1.97	4 / 4	5.23	venue away: 6.08 vs 7.42 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.04 (average) · 35 prior appearances this season
CLE	Gavin Williams (Starter)	21 / 16	0 / 5.06 (-5.06)	0 / 3	3 / 4	0 / 0	1 / 0	2.06	9 / 7	7.42	venue home: 3.04 vs 4.79 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.05 (weak) · 30 prior appearances this season
CLE	Cade Smith (Closer)	4 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.27	3 / 0	1.18
CLE	Hunter Gaddis (Setup Man)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.26	1 / 0	0.78

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Shea Langeliers (DH)	OAK	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-1.4	0.362 elite	bad day
Angel Martínez (LF)	CLE	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-1.4	0.307 average	no signal
Travis Bazzana (2B)	CLE	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.304 average	no signal
Alika Williams (SS)	OAK	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.242 weak	projection too high
Jonah Heim (C)	OAK	3 / 4	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.285 below average	good day
Steven Kwan (CF)	CLE	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.61	0.324 above average	projection too low
Tommy White (1B)	OAK	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.293 below average	—
Zack Gelof (3B)	OAK	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.313 average	—
Lawrence Butler (RF)	OAK	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 2	-0.47	0.325 above average	—
Angel Genao (SS)	CLE	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.292 below average	—
Nathaniel Lowe (1B)	CLE	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.338 above average	—
Henry Bolte (LF)	OAK	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 2	-0.33	0.317 average	—
Donovan Walton (2B)	OAK	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 1	-0.33	0.331 above average	—
Chase DeLauter (RF)	CLE	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.31	0.345 elite	—
José Ramírez (3B)	CLE	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.329 above average	—
Denzel Clarke (CF)	OAK	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.219 weak	—
Jo Adell (DH)	CLE	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.326 above average	—
Patrick Bailey (C)	CLE	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.305 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.456	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	1.358	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.004	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.673	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.78-5.69	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-7	0.58	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-7	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-7	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-7	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-7	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.78-5.69	4-6	0.087	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	4-7	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-7	4-7	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-7	4-7	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-7	4-7	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-7	4-7	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CLE	Gavin Williams	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 4
OAK	Jack Perkins	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_IP -3.8
CLE	Cade Smith	pitcher / Closer	neutral	predicted_SO -3
CLE	Travis Bazzana	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 2.45
OAK	Seth Johnson	pitcher / Reliever	better	predicted_SO 2
OAK	Chris Roycroft	pitcher / Reliever	better	predicted_SO 2
OAK	Hogan Harris	pitcher / Reliever	worse	predicted_H 2
OAK	Jonah Heim	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.77

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=11; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=0; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Angel Genao: AB current=3 box=4; Nathaniel Lowe: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=11, sim=7).	OAK
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Shea Langeliers: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Tommy White: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jonah Heim: AB current=4 box=2, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Zack Gelof: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	OAK
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

PHI@NYMMISS

Predicted: NYM 4-5 (conf +0.03, toss_up)Actual: PHI 7-2Brier 0.268total bias +0

Root cause: Genuine toss-up that flipped

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.03 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.261, recent +0.294, pitcher -0.077, composite -0.060
confidence pipeline reached 0.539 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.517
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 9 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

PHI offense under-projected by 3
NYM offense over-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	4 ER / 19 outs	2 ER / 19 outs	-2
NYM	Jonah Tong	2 ER / 16 outs	4 ER / 14 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×0.921 / away×0.999; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Juan Soto (NYM LF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Justin Crawford (PHI CF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 3 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Trea Turner (PHI SS): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.97]
Bo Bichette (NYM 3B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Francisco Lindor (NYM SS): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Jonah Tong (NYM) posted 7.71 ERA vs projected 3.38 (4 ER in 14 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) threw 19 outs, 2 ER = 2.84 ERA against a projected 5.68 ERA (-2.84 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Bo Bichette: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.326, above average - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Jonah Tong (NYM) threw 14 outs, 4 ER = 7.71 ERA against a projected 3.38 ERA (4.33 ERA error) only 5 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 3 ER over 1 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Justin Crawford: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 3 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.286, below average - a good day, not a model error
Trea Turner: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.97 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.295, below average - a good day, not a model error
J.T. Realmuto: 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.319, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
PHI	Cristopher Sánchez (Starter)	19 / 19	2.84 / 5.68	2 / 4	6 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 5	1.3	6 / 6	5.42	venue away: 3.95 vs 2.21 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.92 (average) · 31 prior appearances this season
NYM	Jonah Tong (Starter)	14 / 16	7.71 / 3.38 (+4.33)	4 / 2	5 / 6	0 / 0	4 / 2	0.93	5 / 11	5.64	venue home: 0 vs 7.2 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 5 prior appearances this season
NYM	Kodai Senga (Closer)	1 / 4	81 / 6.75 (+74.25)	3 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 0	0.44	0 / 0	1.26

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Juan Soto (LF)	NYM	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.413 elite	bad day
Justin Crawford (CF)	PHI	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.09	0.286 below average	good day
Trea Turner (SS)	PHI	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	2 / 1	0.97	0.295 below average	good day
Bo Bichette (3B)	NYM	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.326 above average	projection too low
Francisco Lindor (SS)	NYM	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.334 above average	bad day
J.T. Realmuto (C)	PHI	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	0.66	0.319 average	no signal
Alec Bohm (1B)	PHI	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.329 above average	—
Bryson Stott (3B)	PHI	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.327 above average	—
Marcus Semien (2B)	NYM	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.303 below average	—
Kyle Schwarber (DH)	PHI	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	4 / 1	0 / 1	-0.41	0.363 elite	—
Bryce Harper (RF)	PHI	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.382 elite	—
Luis Arraez (2B)	PHI	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.31	0.307 average	—
Francisco Alvarez (DH)	NYM	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.321 above average	—
Brandon Marsh (LF)	PHI	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.3 below average	—
Carson Benge (RF)	NYM	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.34 elite	—
Mark Vientos (1B)	NYM	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.313 average	—
Nick Morabito (CF)	NYM	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.322 above average	—
Luis Torrens (C)	NYM	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.294 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.261	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.294	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.077	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.06	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.3-4.23	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.517	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.3-4.23	4-4	0.069	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	4-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 4
PHI	Brandon Marsh	batter / LF	boosted	predicted_H 2.34
NYM	Juan Soto	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -2.08
PHI	Trea Turner	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 2.068
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan	pitcher / Setup Man	worse	predicted_SO -2
NYM	Mark Vientos	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 1.8
NYM	Luis Torrens	batter / C	worse	predicted_BB 1.8
NYM	Carson Benge	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.586

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYM
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8).	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=9, sim=7).	NYM
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Mark Vientos: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Francisco Alvarez: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Morabito: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=5, sim=7).	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=13).	PHI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Trea Turner: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Arraez: 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Brandon Marsh: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Kyle Schwarber: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	PHI
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SEA@COLHIT

Predicted: SEA 9-6 (conf -0.12, moderate)Actual: SEA 2-1Brier 0.194total bias +12

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 12; total bias +12
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.921, recent -0.936, pitcher +0.038, composite -1.196
confidence pipeline reached 0.674 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.440
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 12 (15 vs 3)
SEA offense over-projected by 7
COL offense over-projected by 5

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SEA	Kade Anderson	2 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 21 outs	-2
COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	2 ER / 14 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.976 / away×0.938; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Connor Norby (COL 3B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Josh Naylor (SEA 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 2.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.94]
Randy Arozarena (SEA LF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: Kade Anderson (SEA) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 3.60 (0 ER in 21 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Kade Anderson (SEA) threw 21 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (-3.6 ERA error) only 5 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 4 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 10 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Adael Amador: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.254, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 3.86 ERA (-2.06 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 10 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
SEA	Kade Anderson (Starter)	21 / 15	0 / 3.6 (-3.60)	0 / 2	3 / 7	0 / 0	0 / 2	1.65	7 / 4	4.25	venue away: 7.27 vs 4.32 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 5 prior appearances this season
SEA	Andrés Muñoz (Closer)	1 / 4	27 / 0 (+27.00)	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.46	0 / 0	1.54
SEA	Eduard Bazardo (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 3	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	2 / 0	0.71
COL	Tomoyuki Sugano (Starter)	15 / 14	1.8 / 3.86	1 / 2	1 / 5	0 / 1	2 / 2	1.3	5 / 1	3.3	venue home: 5.35 vs 5.64 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.94 (weak) · 27 prior appearances this season
COL	Jimmy Herget (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.44	0 / 0	0.78

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Connor Norby (3B)	COL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.11	0.307 average	no signal
Josh Naylor (1B)	SEA	4 / 4	0 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.94	0.313 average	no signal
Randy Arozarena (LF)	SEA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.78	0.348 elite	bad day
Cal Raleigh (C)	SEA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.313 average	—
Brock Rodden (3B)	SEA	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.242 weak	—
Cole Young (2B)	SEA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.314 average	—
Jordan Beck (RF)	COL	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.251 weak	—
Brett Sullivan (C)	COL	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.286 below average	—
TJ Rumfield (1B)	COL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	-0.47	0.335 above average	—
Ezequiel Tovar (SS)	COL	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.28 weak	—
J.P. Crawford (SS)	SEA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.33	0.323 above average	—
Hunter Goodman (DH)	COL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.322 above average	—
Adael Amador (2B)	COL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.254 weak	—
Julio Rodríguez (CF)	SEA	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.333 above average	—
Cole Carrigg (CF)	COL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.31	0.309 average	—
Dominic Canzone (RF)	SEA	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.15	0.356 elite	—
Jake McCarthy (LF)	COL	4 / 4	1 / 2	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.15	0.326 above average	—
Lazaro Montes (DH)	SEA	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.357 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.921	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.936	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.038	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.196	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.67-4.25	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	8-6	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	9-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	9-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	9-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	9-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.67-4.25	6-4	0.576	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-4	8-6	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	8-6	9-6	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	9-6	9-6	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	9-6	9-6	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	9-6	9-6	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SEA	Cole Young	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 3.54
SEA	Lazaro Montes	batter / DH	better	predicted_AB 3.231
COL	Brett Sullivan	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB 3
COL	Adael Amador	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 2.8
COL	Connor Norby	batter / 3B	better	predicted_AB 2.796
SEA	Dominic Canzone	batter / RF	better	predicted_AB 2.73
COL	Cole Carrigg	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 2.422
SEA	Brock Rodden	batter / 3B	better	predicted_AB 2.364

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	COL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SEA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=8, sim=9).	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=51; H: current=10, sim=15; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=3).	COL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Cole Carrigg: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=7, RBI current=1 box=0; Jordan Beck: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Adael Amador: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Brett Sullivan: AB current=3 box=6, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=51; H: current=10, sim=15; 2B: current=2, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=5, sim=9; R: current=4, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	SEA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; J.P. Crawford: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Lazaro Montes: AB current=3 box=6, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brock Rodden: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	SEA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SF@LADHIT

Predicted: LAD 4-8 (conf +0.16, moderate)Actual: LAD 1-3Brier 0.176total bias +8

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.16 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 8; total bias +8
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.648, recent +1.090, pitcher +0.014, composite +1.931
confidence pipeline reached 0.686 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.580
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 8 (12 vs 4)
SF offense over-projected by 3
LAD offense over-projected by 5
Matt Wilkinson (SF) allowed 4 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 4)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SF	Matt Wilkinson	4 ER / 13 outs	0 ER / 15 outs	-4
LAD	Jack Dreyer	2 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 3 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.014 / away×1; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Mookie Betts (LAD SS): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Victor Bericoto (SF DH): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Andrew Knizner (SF C): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Tommy Edman (LAD CF): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.62]

Starter miss: Matt Wilkinson (SF) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 8.31 (0 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Matt Wilkinson (SF) threw 15 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 8.31 ERA (-8.31 ERA error) only 6 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 8 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 9 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Tommy Edman: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.303, below average - a good day, not a model error
Freddie Freeman: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.366, elite - a good day, not a model error
Enrique Hernández: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.274, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Jack Dreyer (LAD) threw 3 outs, 1 ER = 9 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (5.4 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 2 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Brett Harris: 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.236, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
SF	Matt Wilkinson (Starter)	15 / 13	0 / 8.31 (-8.31)	0 / 4	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 4	0.99	6 / 5	2.53	venue away: 8.31 vs 3 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (strong) · 6 prior appearances this season
SF	Dylan Smith (Closer)	3 / 4	9 / 20.25 (-11.25)	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.54	0 / 1	1.1
SF	Trent Harris (Setup Man)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.27	1 / 1	1.34
SF	Carson Seymour (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 4	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.6	0 / 1	0.89
LAD	Jack Dreyer (Starter)	3 / 15	9 / 3.6 (+5.40)	1 / 2	1 / 5	0 / 1	1 / 2	0	1 / 4	13.05	opp run factor 1 (weak) · 63 prior appearances this season
LAD	Brock Stewart (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.34	2 / 0	0.78
LAD	Tanner Scott (Closer)	3 / 5	0 / 10.8 (-10.80)	0 / 2	0 / 3	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.27	1 / 0	1.37

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Mookie Betts (SS)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	-1.4	0.342 elite	bad day
Victor Bericoto (DH)	SF	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.93	0.303 below average	projection too high
Andrew Knizner (C)	SF	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.295 below average	projection too high
Tommy Edman (CF)	LAD	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.62	0.303 below average	good day
Jonah Cox (2B)	SF	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 2	-0.47	0.265 weak	—
Shay Whitcomb (3B)	SF	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.255 weak	—
Scott Bandura (LF)	SF	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.153 weak	—
Christian Koss (SS)	SF	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.252 weak	—
Freddie Freeman (1B)	LAD	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.366 elite	—
Brett Harris (1B)	SF	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.33	0.236 weak	—
Grant McCray (CF)	SF	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.307 average	—
Enrique Hernández (LF)	LAD	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.274 weak	—
Miguel Rojas (2B)	LAD	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.31	0.31 average	—
Teoscar Hernández (RF)	LAD	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.334 above average	—
Max Muncy (3B)	LAD	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.35 elite	—
Jung Hoo Lee (RF)	SF	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.02	0.314 average	—
Hunter Feduccia (C)	LAD	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.319 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.648	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	1.09	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.014	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.931	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	2.57-5.99	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-7	0.58	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-8	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-8	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-8	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-8	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	2.57-5.99	3-6	-0.418	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-6	5-7	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-7	4-8	2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-8	4-8	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-8	4-8	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-8	4-8	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
LAD	Mookie Betts	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 4.1
SF	Jonah Cox	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 2.182
SF	Victor Bericoto	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 2.156
SF	Jung Hoo Lee	batter / RF	better	predicted_AB -2.14
SF	Grant McCray	batter / CF	better	predicted_3B 1.963
SF	Brett Harris	batter / 1B	better	predicted_H 1.583
SF	Scott Bandura	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
LAD	Miguel Rojas	batter / 2B	deboosted	predicted_AB 1.5

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAD
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SF
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=8).	LAD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Teoscar Hernández: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Tommy Edman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=5, BB current=0 box=1; Josue De Paula: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=1 box=2; Enrique Hernández: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	LAD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8).	SF
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=10; 3B: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).	SF
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0; Victor Bericoto: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brett Harris: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Scott Bandura: AB current=3 box=4; Grant McCray: H current=0 box=2, 3B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	SF
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TOR@TEXMISS

Predicted: TEX 2-4 (conf +0.10, moderate)Actual: TOR 7-2Brier 0.303total bias -3

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.10 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias -3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.246, recent +0.802, pitcher +0.115, composite +0.948
confidence pipeline reached 0.559 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.550
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 3 (6 vs 9)
TOR offense under-projected by 5
Spencer Miles (TOR) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 3)
committed to TEX at 0.10 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TOR	Spencer Miles	3 ER / 18 outs	0 ER / 9 outs	-3
TEX	Jacob deGrom	2 ER / 17 outs	3 ER / 13 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.061 / away×0.946; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Corey Seager (TEX DH): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Jake Burger (TEX 1B): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Evan Carter (TEX CF): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.08]
Kazuma Okamoto (TOR 3B): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Nathan Lukes (TOR RF): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]

Starter miss: Spencer Miles (TOR) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 4.50 (0 ER in 9 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (9.00 ERA there vs 4.91 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Spencer Miles (TOR) threw 9 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (-4.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 6 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jake Burger: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.318, average - a good day, not a model error
Evan Carter: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.08 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.273, weak - a good day, not a model error
Wyatt Langford: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Jacob deGrom (TEX) threw 13 outs, 3 ER = 6.23 ERA against a projected 3.18 ERA (3.05 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 2 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Nathan Lukes: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.286, below average - a good day, not a model error
Brandon Valenzuela: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.31, average - a good day, not a model error
Sean Keys: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.24, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
TOR	Spencer Miles (Starter)	9 / 18	0 / 4.5 (-4.50)	0 / 3	2 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.75	4 / 3	3.01	venue away: 9 vs 4.91 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.06 (average) · 47 prior appearances this season
TOR	Louis Varland (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0 / 1	1.21
TOR	Tyler Rogers (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.25	0 / 2	0.57
TEX	Jacob deGrom (Starter)	13 / 17	6.23 / 3.18 (+3.05)	3 / 2	5 / 4	0 / 2	4 / 2	1.31	2 / 7	7.21	venue home: 2.53 vs 5.35 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.95 (weak) · 29 prior appearances this season
TEX	Chase Silseth (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	13.5 / 0 (+13.50)	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.46	1 / 1	1.32

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Corey Seager (DH)	TEX	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.73	0.354 elite	bad day
Jake Burger (1B)	TEX	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.26	0.318 average	no signal
Evan Carter (CF)	TEX	4 / 3	3 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.08	0.273 weak	good day
Kazuma Okamoto (3B)	TOR	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.93	0.329 above average	bad day
Nathan Lukes (RF)	TOR	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.286 below average	good day
Brandon Valenzuela (C)	TOR	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.31 average	no signal
Sean Keys (DH)	TOR	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.24 weak	good day
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)	TOR	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.64	0.335 above average	bad day
Brett Bateman (CF)	TOR	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0.64	0.3 below average	good day
Josh Jung (3B)	TEX	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.349 elite	—
Nicky Lopez (2B)	TEX	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.264 weak	—
Wyatt Langford (LF)	TEX	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0.33	0.325 above average	—
Ernie Clement (2B)	TOR	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.26 weak	—
Ezequiel Duran (SS)	TEX	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.303 below average	—
Josh Smith (LF)	TOR	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.282 weak	—
Andrés Giménez (SS)	TOR	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.273 weak	—
Danny Jansen (C)	TEX	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.265 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.246	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.802	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.115	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.948	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.63-4.1	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.55	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	2-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.63-4.1	5-4	-0.475	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	3-4	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	2-4	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-4	2-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-4	2-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-4	2-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TOR	Brett Bateman	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.64
TOR	Josh Smith	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 2.271
TEX	Josh Jung	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.65
TEX	Nicky Lopez	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 1.512
TOR	Nathan Lukes	batter / RF	better	predicted_SO 1.452
TEX	Ezequiel Duran	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 1.41
TEX	Brandon Nimmo	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -1.39
TOR	Sean Keys	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.294

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TEX
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=28; H: current=7, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=6).	TEX
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Corey Seager: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Jung: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Danny Jansen: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=3).	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=10).	TOR
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nathan Lukes: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Sean Keys: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brett Bateman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrés Giménez: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=0	TOR
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

WAS@STLMISS

Predicted: WAS 6-5 (conf -0.03, toss_up)Actual: STL 3-5Brier 0.263total bias +3

Root cause: Genuine toss-up that flipped

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.03 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias +3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.353, recent -0.646, pitcher -0.029, composite -0.420
confidence pipeline reached 0.530 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.488
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: 2 structural defect(s) on the saved artifact; see the per-game file-integrity table (this is a file check, not why the pick missed)

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 3 (11 vs 8)
WAS offense over-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
WAS	Jake Irvin	2 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 16 outs	0
STL	Quinn Mathews	4 ER / 17 outs	3 ER / 21 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.962 / away×0.991; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Iván Herrera (STL DH): 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2]
James Wood (WAS DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Alec Burleson (STL 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Leonardo Bernal (STL C): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.95]
CJ Abrams (WAS 2B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Jake Irvin (WAS) threw 16 outs, 2 ER = 3.38 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (-0.22 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 2 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 6 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Iván Herrera: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI [+2 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.332, above average - real projection error
Leonardo Bernal: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.95 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.359, elite - real projection error
José Fermín: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.293, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Quinn Mathews (STL) threw 21 outs, 3 ER = 3.86 ERA against a projected 6.35 ERA (-2.49 ERA error) only 7 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

CJ Abrams: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.328, above average - real projection error
Brady House: 2-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.336, above average - real projection error
Daylen Lile: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.326, above average - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
WAS	Jake Irvin (Starter)	16 / 15	3.38 / 3.6	2 / 2	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 2	2.66	8 / 6	4.95	venue away: 4.76 vs 6.75 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (average) · 20 prior appearances this season
WAS	Erik Tolman (Closer)	2 / 3	13.5 / 0 (+13.50)	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.46	0 / 0	1.01
STL	Quinn Mathews (Starter)	21 / 17	3.86 / 6.35	3 / 4	7 / 4	1 / 2	2 / 3	2.15	3 / 9	4.63	venue home: 1.46 vs 4.68 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (strong) · 7 prior appearances this season
STL	Riley O'Brien (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.49	0 / 1	0.96

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Iván Herrera (DH)	STL	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2	0.332 above average	projection too low
James Wood (DH)	WAS	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.411 elite	bad day
Alec Burleson (1B)	STL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.375 elite	bad day
Leonardo Bernal (C)	STL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.95	0.359 elite	projection too low
CJ Abrams (2B)	WAS	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.328 above average	projection too low
Brady House (3B)	WAS	2 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.336 above average	projection too low
Dylan Crews (RF)	WAS	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.315 average	no signal
Andrés Chaparro (1B)	WAS	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.78	0.346 elite	bad day
Daylen Lile (LF)	WAS	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.326 above average	projection too low
José Fermín (3B)	STL	3 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.78	0.293 below average	good day
Thomas Saggese (SS)	STL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.313 average	—
Nathan Church (CF)	STL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.29 below average	—
Jordan Walker (RF)	STL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.45	0.342 elite	—
Harry Ford (C)	WAS	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.287 below average	—
JJ Wetherholt (2B)	STL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.35 elite	—
Nasim Nuñez (SS)	WAS	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.267 weak	—
Jacob Young (CF)	WAS	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.316 average	—
Bryan Torres (LF)	STL	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.293 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.353	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.646	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.029	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.42	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.33-5.08	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.512	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.33-5.08	4-5	-0.258	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	5-4	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-5	-1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-5	6-5	1	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
WAS	James Wood	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 3.406
STL	Leonardo Bernal	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -3.35
STL	Bryan Torres	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 2.712
WAS	Harry Ford	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 2.161
WAS	Brady House	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 2
WAS	Daylen Lile	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.54
WAS	Andrés Chaparro	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB 1.451
STL	Nathan Church	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.385

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
warning	INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home has outs=0; expected 3 for a played half inning.
warning	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count row for Jake Irvin differs from pitching box score: batters_faced/BF: summary=20, box=17.	WAS Jake Irvin
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	STL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6).	STL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Iván Herrera: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; José Fermín: RBI current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	STL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=14).	WAS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: AB current=4 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brady House: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Dylan Crews: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Andrés Chaparro: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Harry Ford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	WAS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, and exactly which games it would help versus hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

Day over day: did it improve or worsen

Compared against packet 20260919. Last recorded change: v4.30.0 (2026-09-08) Hitter shrinkage is derived from the between-hitter spread rather than fitted to slate error, so an established extreme profile is no longer flattened toward the league.

Metric	Prior	Current	Δ	Result
brier_score	0.2434	0.2393	-0.004072	improved
accuracy	0.6083	0.6	-0.0083	regressed
team_run_mae	2.3917	2.5042	+0.1125	regressed
total_run_mae	3.2833	3.3583	+0.075	regressed
calibration_error	0.0875	0.0885	+0.001	regressed
starter_er_mae	1.6653	1.6855	+0.0202	regressed
starter_outs_mae	3.2782	3.4839	+0.2057	regressed

Deep slate report — 20260920

Process, end to end

Slate summary

What drove the losses

Source coverage receipt

High-level causal issue register

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Probability lineage and calibration

Score distribution and margin compression

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

ATL@HOUHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

BOS@TBHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CHC@CINHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

DET@CHWMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

KC@PITHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIA@SDHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIL@BALHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIN@LAAMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

NYY@ARIMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

OAK@CLEHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)