Deep slate report 20260913

Which reports actually fed the diagnosis. A source shown as missing was not silently assumed.

High-level causal issue register

Source	Status	Evidence supplied	Path	Bytes
prediction review	loaded	official outcomes and scoring errors	/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260913.json	378938
forensic deep audit	loaded	probability, provenance, starter and decision contracts	/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260913.json	241383
continuous learning	loaded	pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage, score distribution, and official starter comparisons	/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260913.json	2552789
detailed report	loaded	full game and simulation rendering	/app/output/reports/detailed_20260913.html	351748
ultra detailed player audit	loaded	player-level prediction trace	/app/output/reports/20260913_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html	33852122
structural audit	loaded	all invariant findings	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260913.html	1878314
integrity revision audit	missing	post-Luna remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260913_integrity_revision.html	n/a

Deterministic findings across data integrity, model validation, calibration, score distribution, pipeline stages, simulation, and coverage. Critical is reserved for broken evidence or an unexplained contract violation; high marks material model/process risk. Each row pairs the action to take (Do this) with the wrong conclusion to avoid (Don't conclude).

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

A finding that has repeated at or beyond the escalation streak is no longer single-slate noise. It carries its target registered lever and an action-oriented guardrail.

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Every stored stage is scored against the same official finals. A later recovery remains visible; it does not erase an unstable intermediate flip.

Probability lineage and calibration

All columns are pick-side probabilities, so away favorites are not accidentally compared using home-side semantics.

Score distribution and margin compression

Narrow predicted margins next to wide actual margins is the signature the score-variance tail is too tight.

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

Severity	Domain	Finding and evidence	Affected	Action & guardrail
CRITICAL	probability_lineage	Published probability differs materially without a recorded transformation 2 game(s) have an unexplained ≥2pp calibrated-to-published delta	COL@DET, LAA@WAS	Do thisBlock any promotion until the missing probability transformation is recorded and reconciled. Don't concludeDo not assume the probability governor was bypassed until you have traced the pick-side math.
HIGH	artifact_integrity	Canonical artifact warning requires reconciliation structural audit totals: {'critical': 0, 'error': 0, 'warning': 1, 'info': 110}	slate-wide	Do thisFix the flagged stat or presentation contract before treating this slate as clean evidence. Don't concludeA warning flags a display or contract issue; it does not prove the model picked the wrong side.
HIGH	model_validation	Validated run models explain very little holdout variance home/away/total R² = 0.0118/0.0210/0.0207	BAL@TOR, CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI	Do thisTreat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails. Don't concludeA small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.
INFO	coverage	Every settled game received structural QA 15/15 games structurally audited	BAL@TOR, CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI	Do thisKeep the per-game audit receipt in every report. Don't concludeFull audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.
INFO	simulation	Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate flip candidates 0; published flips 0	BAL@TOR, CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI	Do thisMeasure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping. Don't concludeZero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Finding	Persistence	Target lever(s)	Direction	Guardrail
simulation_inert_on_slate	11 consecutive · 11 in window	simulation.allow_score	confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping	simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
weak_run_model_signal	11 consecutive · 11 in window	training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate	investigate features/target via isolated training backtest (manual)	weak_run_model_signal has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Finding	Consecutive slates	Incidence	Present now	Fix type
high_raw_probability_cluster	0	1/11	no	param
pipeline_winner_instability	0	2/11	no	code/diagnostic
score_margin_compression	0	1/11	no	param
simulation_inert_on_slate	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic
single_slate_calibration_instability	0	4/11	no	param
weak_run_model_signal	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic

Metric	Direction	Series (old → new)
winner_accuracy	flat	[0.5556, 0.625, 0.5333, 0.6, 0.5455, 0.7333, 0.6667, 0.6, 0.6667, 0.5333, 0.6]
weighted_calibration_error	improving	[0.1474, 0.1316, 0.1, 0.0937, 0.2611, 0.1825, 0.1069, 0.1171, 0.2091, 0.1711, 0.0827]
margin_bias	regressing	[-1.778, -0.688, -1.467, -1.467, -0.182, -0.867, -2.133, -1.0, -2.933, -2.667, -1.8]
team_run_error_on_losses	improving	[6.75, 6.0, 5.286, 5.333, 3.8, 6.75, 5.6, 6.5, 5.0, 6.143, 5.0]

Stage	Winner hits	Accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
historical_ml	9/15	60%	2.325	3.134	3.257
variance_applied	8/15	53.3%	2.367	3.133	3.267
enhanced_prediction	9/15	60%	2.533	3.867	3.467
embedded_savant_run_environment	9/15	60%	2.433	3.8	3.267
fundamental_edge_target_review	9/15	60%	2.433	3.8	3.267
capped_target	9/15	60%	2.433	3.8	3.267
simulation_result	9/15	60%	2.433	3.8	3.267
published_final	9/15	60%	2.433	3.8	3.267

Transition	Δ accuracy	Δ hits	Δ team-run MAE	Δ margin MAE	Games whose winner/tie changed
historical_ml → variance_applied	-0.0667	-1	0.0415	0.0093	COL@DET: DET → TIE
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction	0.0667	1	0.1666	0.2	CIN@MIL: CIN → MIL; COL@DET: TIE → DET; TEX@ARI: ARI → TEX
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment	0	0	-0.1	-0.2
embedded_savant_run_environment → fundamental_edge_target_review	0	0	0	0
fundamental_edge_target_review → capped_target	0	0	0	0
capped_target → simulation_result	0	0	0	0
simulation_result → published_final	0	0	0	0

Game	Outcome	Raw model	Calibrated	Governor	Score coherence	Published	Explanation
BAL@TOR	hit	0.5579	0.5348	0.5348	0.5348	0.5296	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CHW@STL	hit	0.5407	0.5255	0.5255	0.5255	0.5085	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CIN@MIL	miss	0.587	0.7356	0.7356	0.7356	0.54	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CLE@MIN	miss	0.6131	0.5637	0.5637	0.5637	0.5461	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
COL@DET	hit	0.6515	0.7168	0.7168	0.7168	0.6464	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
HOU@TB	hit	0.5595	0.5357	0.5357	0.5357	0.5202	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
KC@BOS	hit	0.6344	0.5918	0.5918	0.5858	0.56	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
LAA@WAS	hit	0.6486	0.6294	0.6294	0.6046	0.5711	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
LAD@MIA	miss	0.6331	0.7075	0.7075	0.7075	0.6	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
NYM@NYY	hit	0.6318	0.5973	0.5973	0.5885	0.5639	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
PHI@ATL	miss	0.5713	0.5596	0.5596	0.5596	0.543	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
PIT@CHC	miss	0.5418	0.5261	0.5261	0.5261	0.5189	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SD@SF	hit	0.5995	0.5739	0.5739	0.5739	0.539	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SEA@OAK	miss	0.6045	0.5982	0.5982	0.589	0.56	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
TEX@ARI	hit	0.5	0.5078	0.5078	0.5078	0.5057	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value

Sides analyzed	Broke on pitching	Broke on offense	Both	Variance	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj
30	2	8	3	17	-0.07	0.03

Game	Trained p(home)	Blended p(home)	Blend favoured	Published p(home)	Published side	Artifact says winner changed	Outcome
TEX@ARI	0.742	0.625	home	0.494	away	yes	hit

Slate	Games	Winner acc	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj	Sides broke on pitching	Sides broke on offense
20260912	15	0.533	1.35	0.57	6	7
20260911	15	0.667	0.99	0.00	4	9
20260910	5	0.600	-3.19	-1.70		8
20260909	15	0.667	3.36	1.07	8	7
20260908	15	0.733	-0.15	-0.23	7	15
20260907	11	0.545	-0.86	-0.36	5	4
20260906	15	0.600	0.74	-0.30	6	10
20260905	15	0.533	-1.17	-0.07	2	6
20260904	16	0.625	-0.23	-0.44	5	12
20260903	9	0.556	0.24	-0.83	4	6
20260902	15	0.333	0.72	0.30	7	6
20260901	15	0.467	1.48	1.07	9	3

Game	Pred margin	Actual margin	Pred − actual
BAL@TOR	2	7	-5
CHW@STL	1	2	-1
CIN@MIL	4	1	3
CLE@MIN	1	7	-6
COL@DET	3	7	-4
HOU@TB	1	10	-9
KC@BOS	2	3	-1
LAA@WAS	1	1	0
LAD@MIA	3	2	1
NYM@NYY	1	2	-1
PHI@ATL	1	5	-4
PIT@CHC	1	1	0
SD@SF	2	2	0
SEA@OAK	1	1	0
TEX@ARI	1	1	0

BAL@TORHIT

Predicted: TOR 2-4 (conf +0.06, lean)Actual: TOR 1-8Brier 0.221total bias -3

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias -3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.068, recent +0.330, pitcher -0.031, composite +0.410
confidence pipeline reached 0.535 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.530
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 3 (6 vs 9)
TOR offense under-projected by 4

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
BAL	Trevor Rogers	4 ER / 18 outs	4 ER / 18 outs	0
TOR	Dylan Cease	1 ER / 18 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.983 / away×1.014; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR 1B): 4-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.65]
Jackson Holliday (BAL 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Dylan Beavers (BAL LF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]
George Springer (TOR DH): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Gunnar Henderson (BAL SS): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.66]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

Per-pitch matchup fields are not populated in the current feeds, so this is reconstructed from the settled box: each starter's workload-adjusted ERA, the bullpen share behind him, and the opposing lineup's real production against its projection, with the hitters who beat that projection named.

AWAY pitching

Trevor Rogers (BAL) threw 18 outs, 4 ER = 6 ERA against a projected 6 ERA (0 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 8 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 4-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+2.65 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.334, above average - real projection error
George Springer: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.306, average - a good day, not a model error
Kazuma Okamoto: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.329, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Dylan Cease (TOR) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 1.5 ERA (0.3 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Dylan Beavers: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.301, below average - a good day, not a model error
Gunnar Henderson: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.318, average - a good day, not a model error
Leody Taveras: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.27, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material. exp BB and exp SO are the continuous rate expectations. The integer beside each is a simulation draw reconciled to the opposing simulated batting box, so it is not the line that ranks pitchers: on the 2026-09-07 slate the integers published 39 walks and 121 strikeouts against 51 and 130 real, while these expectations landed on 50.4 and 132.6.)

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
BAL	Trevor Rogers (Starter)	18 / 18	6 / 6	4 / 4	7 / 5	3 / 2	1 / 2	0.91	5 / 3	7.34	venue away: 4.34 vs 3.79 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.98 (weak) · 27 prior appearances this season
TOR	Dylan Cease (Starter)	15 / 18	1.8 / 1.5	1 / 1	4 / 5	0 / 0	5 / 1	2.05	9 / 5	6.15	venue home: 2.91 vs 1.89 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season
TOR	Tyler Rogers (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	1 / 0	0.46

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)	TOR	5 / 4	4 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	2.65	0.334 above average	projection too low
Jackson Holliday (2B)	BAL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 2	-1.11	0.293 below average	projection too high
Dylan Beavers (LF)	BAL	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1.11	0.301 below average	good day
George Springer (DH)	TOR	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	4 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.07	0.306 average	no signal
Gunnar Henderson (SS)	BAL	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 1	0.66	0.318 average	no signal
Samuel Basallo (C)	BAL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.321 above average	—
Leody Taveras (RF)	BAL	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.27 weak	—
Ernie Clement (2B)	TOR	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.261 weak	—
Coby Mayo (DH)	BAL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	3 / 2	0.33	0.327 above average	—
Colton Cowser (CF)	BAL	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.316 average	—
Kazuma Okamoto (3B)	TOR	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.329 above average	—
Pete Alonso (1B)	BAL	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.32	0.395 elite	—
Andrés Giménez (SS)	TOR	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.274 weak	—
Brett Bateman (CF)	TOR	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	0.19	0.312 average	—
Nathan Lukes (RF)	TOR	0 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.287 below average	—
Myles Straw (LF)	TOR	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	-0.14	0.297 below average	—
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B)	BAL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2	0	0.345 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.068	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.33	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.031	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.41	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4-5.23	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	2-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4-5.23	4-5	-0.227	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	3-4	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	2-4	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-4	2-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-4	2-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-4	2-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TOR	Nathan Lukes	batter / RF	worse	predicted_RBI 2.68
TOR	Brett Bateman	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.07
BAL	Jackson Holliday	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_2B 1.867
BAL	Pete Alonso	batter / 1B	better	predicted_2B 1.841
TOR	George Springer	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB -1.5
TOR	Alejandro Kirk	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.25
BAL	Colton Cowser	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 1.15
TOR	Kazuma Okamoto	batter / 3B	deboosted	predicted_AB -1.14

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BAL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=12, sim=5).	BAL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jackson Holliday: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=0; Colton Cowser: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=29; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=5).	TOR
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brett Bateman: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Alejandro Kirk: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; George Springer: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Ernie Clement: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3; Andrés Giménez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	TOR
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CHW@STLHIT

Predicted: STL 5-6 (conf +0.02, toss_up)Actual: STL 1-3Brier 0.242total bias +7

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.02 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias +7
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.111, recent +0.312, pitcher +0.013, composite +0.227
confidence pipeline reached 0.525 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.508
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 7 (11 vs 4)
CHW offense over-projected by 4
STL offense over-projected by 3
David Sandlin (CHW) allowed 6 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 6)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CHW	David Sandlin	6 ER / 12 outs	0 ER / 17 outs	-6
STL	Michael McGreevy	2 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.004 / away×0.99; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Munetaka Murakami (CHW 1B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Jordan Walker (STL RF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Iván Herrera (STL C): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Leonardo Bernal (STL DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Nathan Church (STL CF): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named David Sandlin (CHW) at a projected 13.5 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Nathan Church: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.289, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Michael McGreevy (STL) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 3.18 ERA (-1.68 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Colson Montgomery: 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.304, average - a good day, not a model error
Sam Antonacci: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.342, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
STL	Michael McGreevy (Starter)	18 / 17	1.5 / 3.18	1 / 2	3 / 2	0 / 0	3 / 3	1.82	6 / 7	3.98	venue home: 4.06 vs 3.79 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (average) · 28 prior appearances this season
STL	George Soriano (Setup Man)	3 / 2	0 / 27 (-27.00)	0 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	2 / 2	0.44	0 / 0	0.68

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Munetaka Murakami (1B)	CHW	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-1.4	0.342 elite	bad day
Jordan Walker (RF)	STL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-1.4	0.343 elite	bad day
Iván Herrera (C)	STL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.331 above average	bad day
Leonardo Bernal (DH)	STL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.372 elite	bad day
Nathan Church (CF)	STL	3 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.78	0.289 below average	good day
Bryan Torres (LF)	STL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.294 below average	—
Thomas Saggese (2B)	STL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.314 average	—
Miguel Vargas (3B)	CHW	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.379 elite	—
Colson Montgomery (SS)	CHW	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.304 average	—
Alec Burleson (1B)	STL	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.375 elite	—
Sam Antonacci (LF)	CHW	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	0.342 elite	—
Kyle Teel (C)	CHW	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	-0.14	0.315 average	—
Chase Meidroth (2B)	CHW	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.296 below average	—
Tristan Peters (RF)	CHW	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.317 average	—
Andrew Benintendi (DH)	CHW	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.309 average	—
Nolan Gorman (3B)	STL	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.279 weak	—
Masyn Winn (SS)	STL	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.298 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.111	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.312	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.013	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.227	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.08-4.76	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.508	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.08-4.76	4-5	0.327	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	5-6	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	5-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	5-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	5-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	5-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CHW	Andrew Benintendi	batter / DH	boosted	predicted_RBI 3.69
CHW	Miguel Vargas	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -3.24
STL	Thomas Saggese	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_RBI 2.692
CHW	Tristan Peters	batter / RF	worse	predicted_BB 1.757
STL	Iván Herrera	batter / C	worse	predicted_RBI 1.572
CHW	Sam Antonacci	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.543
CHW	Munetaka Murakami	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO -1.522
CHW	Kyle Teel	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB 1.51

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHW
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	STL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=3, sim=4).	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=7, sim=8).	CHW
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Munetaka Murakami: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Tristan Peters: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2; Kyle Teel: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4; Chase Meidroth: AB current=3 box=5, R current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4).	STL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Iván Herrera: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Bryan Torres: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Leonardo Bernal: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Nolan Gorman: BB current=0 box=1; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathan Church: R current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	STL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CIN@MILMISS

Predicted: MIL 4-8 (conf +0.08, lean)Actual: CIN 4-3Brier 0.292total bias +5

Root cause: Run environment far lower than projected (over-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias +5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +2.053, recent +1.222, pitcher +0.013, composite +2.183
confidence pipeline reached 0.736 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.540
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 5 (12 vs 7)
MIL offense over-projected by 5

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CIN	Chase Burns	3 ER / 18 outs	2 ER / 9 outs	-1
MIL	Robert Gasser	1 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×1.001 / away×0.988; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Eugenio Suárez (CIN 3B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Jackson Chourio (MIL LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Joey Ortiz (MIL 3B): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Elly De La Cruz (CIN SS): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.79]
Dane Myers (CIN CF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Chase Burns (CIN) threw 9 outs, 2 ER = 6 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (1.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 6 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Joey Ortiz: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.3, below average - a good day, not a model error
Jake Bauers: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.38, elite - real projection error
Christian Yelich: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.312, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Robert Gasser (MIL) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 1.8 ERA (0 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Eugenio Suárez: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.299, below average - a good day, not a model error
Sal Stewart: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.35, elite - a good day, not a model error
Tyler Stephenson: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CIN	Chase Burns (Starter)	9 / 18	6 / 4.5	2 / 3	2 / 3	1 / 1	3 / 0	1.66	5 / 9	7.46	venue away: 3.36 vs 2.09 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1 (strong) · 27 prior appearances this season
CIN	Emilio Pagán (Closer)	3 / 6	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 4	1 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.3	1 / 1	1.08
MIL	Robert Gasser (Starter)	15 / 15	1.8 / 1.8	1 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 2	2.27	5 / 8	5.19	venue home: 3.83 vs 5.44 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (weak) · 18 prior appearances this season
MIL	Abner Uribe (Setup Man)	3 / 3	9 / 18 (-9.00)	1 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.38	1 / 0	1.16

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Eugenio Suárez (3B)	CIN	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 2	1.4	0.299 below average	good day
Jackson Chourio (LF)	MIL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 2	-1.4	0.342 elite	bad day
Joey Ortiz (3B)	MIL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.3 below average	good day
Elly De La Cruz (SS)	CIN	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.79	0.373 elite	bad day
Dane Myers (CF)	CIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.78	0.31 average	no signal
Garrett Mitchell (CF)	MIL	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 2	-0.78	0.356 elite	bad day
Jake Bauers (1B)	MIL	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.6	0.38 elite	projection too low
Héctor Rodríguez (RF)	CIN	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.266 weak	—
Sal Stewart (1B)	CIN	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.35 elite	—
Jose Trevino (C)	CIN	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.216 weak	—
Luis Lara (RF)	MIL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.301 below average	—
Gary Sánchez (C)	MIL	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.341 elite	—
Christian Yelich (DH)	MIL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.312 average	—
Tyler Stephenson (DH)	CIN	2 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.31	0.333 above average	—
Juan Brito (2B)	CIN	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.292 below average	—
Brice Turang (2B)	MIL	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.16	0.345 elite	—
JJ Bleday (LF)	CIN	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0	0.342 elite	—
Cooper Pratt (SS)	MIL	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.313 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	2.053	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	1.222	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.013	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	2.183	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.91-3.32	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-8	0.54	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-8	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-8	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-8	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-8	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.91-3.32	5-3	-0.408	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	4-8	6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-8	4-8	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-8	4-8	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-8	4-8	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-8	4-8	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CIN	Chase Burns	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_H -3
CIN	Emilio Pagán	pitcher / Closer	worse	predicted_H 3
CIN	Héctor Rodríguez	batter / RF	worse	predicted_RBI 2.6
MIL	Luis Lara	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 2.156
MIL	Garrett Mitchell	batter / CF	better	predicted_AB -2.09
MIL	Jackson Chourio	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB -1.7
CIN	Elly De La Cruz	batter / SS	worse	predicted_H -1.47
MIL	Christian Yelich	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.39

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CIN
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8; BB: current=1, sim=2).	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=9).	CIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Eugenio Suárez: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=1; Tyler Stephenson: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; JJ Bleday: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Dane Myers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jose Trevino: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=6, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=11, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	MIL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gary Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=2 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Garrett Mitchell: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=2 box=0; Brice Turang: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Lara: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Joey Ortiz: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Cooper Pratt: 2B current=0 box=1	MIL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CLE@MINMISS

Predicted: MIN 4-5 (conf +0.09, lean)Actual: CLE 9-2Brier 0.298total bias -2

Root cause: Small edge on the losing side

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.09 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 8; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.256, recent -0.062, pitcher -0.051, composite -0.088
confidence pipeline reached 0.564 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.546
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

CLE offense under-projected by 5
MIN offense over-projected by 3
Tanner Bibee (CLE) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (2 vs 5)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CLE	Tanner Bibee	5 ER / 16 outs	2 ER / 20 outs	-3
MIN	Joe Ryan	3 ER / 16 outs	4 ER / 12 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.967 / away×1.018; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Steven Kwan (CLE CF): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.18]
Travis Bazzana (CLE 2B): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.73]
Jo Adell (CLE DH): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Trevor Larnach (MIN DH): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Angel Martínez (CLE LF): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]

Starter miss: Tanner Bibee (CLE) posted 2.70 ERA vs projected 8.44 (2 ER in 20 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Tanner Bibee (CLE) threw 20 outs, 2 ER = 2.7 ERA against a projected 8.44 ERA (-5.74 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 2 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Trevor Larnach: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.327, above average - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Joe Ryan (MIN) threw 12 outs, 4 ER = 9 ERA against a projected 5.06 ERA (3.94 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 14 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Steven Kwan: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+2.18 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.322, above average - real projection error
Travis Bazzana: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.73 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error
Jo Adell: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - real projection error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CLE	Tanner Bibee (Starter)	20 / 16	2.7 / 8.44 (-5.74)	2 / 5	4 / 9	1 / 0	2 / 3	2.01	7 / 5	3.43	venue away: 4.36 vs 4.11 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.97 (average) · 30 prior appearances this season
CLE	Hunter Gaddis (Setup Man)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.34	1 / 1	0.77
MIN	Joe Ryan (Starter)	12 / 16	9 / 5.06 (+3.94)	4 / 3	7 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	1.07	1 / 3	4.83	venue home: 3.44 vs 3.92 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (weak) · 24 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Steven Kwan (CF)	CLE	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2.18	0.322 above average	projection too low
Travis Bazzana (2B)	CLE	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.73	0.307 average	no signal
Jo Adell (DH)	CLE	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.4	0.325 above average	projection too low
Trevor Larnach (DH)	MIN	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1.4	0.327 above average	projection too low
Angel Martínez (LF)	CLE	5 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.09	0.306 average	no signal
Ryan Jeffers (C)	MIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.357 elite	bad day
Patrick Bailey (C)	CLE	5 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.308 average	—
Royce Lewis (1B)	MIN	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.312 average	—
Brooks Lee (3B)	MIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.275 weak	—
Ryan Kreidler (SS)	MIN	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.289 below average	—
Nathaniel Lowe (1B)	CLE	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.46	0.338 above average	—
Chase DeLauter (RF)	CLE	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.31	0.344 elite	—
Kody Clemens (2B)	MIN	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.29	0.337 above average	—
Luke Keaschall (RF)	MIN	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.17	0.315 average	—
Angel Genao (3B)	CLE	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.294 below average	—
Brayan Rocchio (SS)	CLE	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.293 below average	—
Emmanuel Rodriguez (LF)	MIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.607 elite	—
Walker Jenkins (CF)	MIN	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.255 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.256	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.062	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.051	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.088	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.58-5.6	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.546	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.58-5.6	4-6	-0.021	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	4-5	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CLE	Steven Kwan	batter / CF	better	predicted_H 2
MIN	Emmanuel Rodriguez	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 2
MIN	Ryan Kreidler	batter / SS	worse	predicted_H 1.77
CLE	Angel Genao	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_H 1.62
CLE	Travis Bazzana	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_RBI 1.37
MIN	Ryan Jeffers	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.37
CLE	Chase DeLauter	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 1.364
CLE	Patrick Bailey	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 1.169

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Angel Martínez: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Angel Genao: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6).	MIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Trevor Larnach: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Emmanuel Rodriguez: SO current=1 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=3; Kody Clemens: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Walker Jenkins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	MIN
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

COL@DETHIT

Predicted: DET 4-7 (conf +0.29, strong)Actual: DET 1-8Brier 0.125total bias +2

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.29 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.208, recent +0.814, pitcher +0.028, composite +1.469
confidence pipeline reached 0.717 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.646
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: 1 structural defect(s) on the saved artifact; see the per-game file-integrity table (this is a file check, not why the pick missed)

Quantified contributing factors

COL offense over-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
COL	Gabriel Hughes	6 ER / 13 outs	5 ER / 6 outs	-1
DET	Jackson Jobe	1 ER / 14 outs	1 ER / 19 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×1.067 / away×1.039; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Spencer Torkelson (DET 1B): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.54]
Adael Amador (COL DH): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Jake McCarthy (COL LF): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Riley Greene (DET LF): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.76]
Colt Keith (DET DH): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.64]

Starter miss: Gabriel Hughes (COL) posted 22.50 ERA vs projected 12.46 (5 ER in 6 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (7.76 ERA there vs 4.26 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Gabriel Hughes (COL) threw 6 outs, 5 ER = 22.5 ERA against a projected 12.46 ERA (10.04 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 9 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 8 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 6 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Spencer Torkelson: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.54 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.309, average - a good day, not a model error
Riley Greene: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.76 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.372, elite - real projection error
Colt Keith: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

HOME pitching

Jackson Jobe (DET) threw 19 outs, 1 ER = 1.42 ERA against a projected 1.93 ERA (-0.51 ERA error) only 6 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 2 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 5 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Adael Amador: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.281, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
COL	Gabriel Hughes (Starter)	6 / 13	22.5 / 12.46 (+10.04)	5 / 6	5 / 7	1 / 0	2 / 2	1.8	2 / 5	3.75	venue away: 7.76 vs 4.26 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.07 (average) · 12 prior appearances this season
COL	Jaden Hill (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.67	1 / 1	1.06
COL	Jimmy Herget (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.5	1 / 0	0.92
DET	Jackson Jobe (Starter)	19 / 14	1.42 / 1.93	1 / 1	3 / 4	1 / 0	1 / 2	2.11	8 / 5	4.69	venue home: 7.88 vs 3.1 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.04 (average) · 6 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Spencer Torkelson (1B)	DET	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.54	0.309 average	no signal
Adael Amador (DH)	COL	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.281 weak	good day
Jake McCarthy (LF)	COL	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.321 above average	bad day
Riley Greene (LF)	DET	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.76	0.372 elite	projection too low
Colt Keith (DH)	DET	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.335 above average	projection too low
Kevin McGonigle (3B)	DET	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0.62	0.354 elite	projection too low
Cole Carrigg (CF)	COL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.311 average	—
Jordan Beck (RF)	COL	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.245 weak	—
Max Clark (CF)	DET	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.323 above average	—
John Peck (SS)	DET	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.355 elite	—
Hao-Yu Lee (2B)	DET	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.298 below average	—
TJ Rumfield (1B)	COL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0	0.335 above average	—
Brett Callahan (RF)	DET	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.299 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.208	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.814	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.028	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.469	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.37-4.4	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-7	0.646	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-7	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-7	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-7	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-7	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.37-4.4	4-4	-0.026	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	4-7	3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-7	4-7	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-7	4-7	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-7	4-7	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-7	4-7	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
COL	Cole Carrigg	batter / CF	worse	predicted_RBI 3.48
COL	Gabriel Hughes	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_H 3
DET	Kevin McGonigle	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 2.557
COL	Kyle Karros	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 2.254
COL	Hunter Goodman	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.14
DET	Colt Keith	batter / DH	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.738
COL	Jake McCarthy	batter / LF	worse	predicted_H -1.68
COL	Connor Norby	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.42

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
warning	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count row for Gabriel Hughes differs from pitching box score: hits_allowed/H: summary=7, box=6.	COL Gabriel Hughes
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	COL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	DET
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=6; ER: current=6, sim=7).	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4).	COL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4; Jake McCarthy: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jordan Beck: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Karros: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	DET
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Eduardo Valencia: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Max Clark: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Brett Callahan: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Spencer Torkelson: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	DET
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

HOU@TBHIT

Predicted: TB 3-4 (conf +0.04, lean)Actual: TB 4-14Brier 0.23total bias -11

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.04 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 11; total bias -11
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.615, recent +0.240, pitcher -0.084, composite +0.394
confidence pipeline reached 0.536 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.520
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 11 (7 vs 18)
TB offense under-projected by 10

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
HOU	Hayden Wesneski	3 ER / 17 outs	3 ER / 9 outs	0
TB	Freddy Peralta	1 ER / 17 outs	0 ER / 15 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.95 / away×1.034; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jonathan Aranda (TB 1B): 2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.33]
Yordan Alvarez (HOU DH): 0-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Richie Palacios (TB 2B): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Junior Caminero (TB 3B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.95]
Isaac Paredes (HOU 3B): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Starter miss: Hayden Wesneski (HOU) posted 9.00 ERA vs projected 4.76 (3 ER in 9 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (3.80 ERA there vs 2.86 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Hayden Wesneski (HOU) threw 9 outs, 3 ER = 9 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (4.24 ERA error) only 8 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 8 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 5 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jonathan Aranda: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI [+2.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.348, elite - real projection error
Richie Palacios: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.309, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

HOME pitching

Freddy Peralta (TB) threw 15 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 1.59 ERA (-1.59 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 2 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Isaac Paredes: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.322, above average - real projection error
Nelson Velázquez: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.351, elite - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
HOU	Hayden Wesneski (Starter)	9 / 17	9 / 4.76 (+4.24)	3 / 3	6 / 4	1 / 1	2 / 3	1.62	2 / 8	4.54	venue away: 3.8 vs 2.86 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.95 (average) · 8 prior appearances this season
TB	Freddy Peralta (Starter)	15 / 17	0 / 1.59	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 3	1.35	4 / 5	3.64	venue home: 3.89 vs 5.81 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.03 (average) · 29 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Jonathan Aranda (1B)	TB	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	2.33	0.348 elite	projection too low
Yordan Alvarez (DH)	HOU	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-1.4	0.443 elite	bad day
Richie Palacios (2B)	TB	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1.07	0.309 average	no signal
Junior Caminero (3B)	TB	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.95	0.362 elite	bad day
Isaac Paredes (3B)	HOU	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0.93	0.322 above average	projection too low
Nelson Velázquez (LF)	HOU	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.93	0.351 elite	projection too low
Daulton Varsho (CF)	HOU	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.287 below average	projection too high
Jeremy Peña (SS)	HOU	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.321 above average	bad day
Jose Altuve (2B)	HOU	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.273 weak	—
Christian Walker (1B)	HOU	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.45	0.304 average	—
Yandy Díaz (DH)	TB	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.16	0.35 elite	—
Yainer Diaz (C)	HOU	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	-0.14	0.299 below average	—
Cam Smith (RF)	HOU	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.32 average	—
Chandler Simpson (LF)	TB	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.264 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.615	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.24	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.084	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.394	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4-4.6	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.52	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4-4.6	4-5	0.396	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	3-4	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TB	Junior Caminero	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 3.199
HOU	Yordan Alvarez	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO 2.229
TB	Yandy Díaz	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB -2.16
HOU	Jose Altuve	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 1.66
TB	Chandler Simpson	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB -1.52
HOU	Daulton Varsho	batter / CF	deboosted	predicted_AB -1.31
TB	Cedric Mullins	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.26
TB	Victor Mesa Jr.	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -1.254

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	HOU
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4).	HOU
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nelson Velázquez: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jeremy Peña: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=3, sim=5).	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=6, sim=10).	TB
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=4 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Chandler Simpson: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cedric Mullins: SO current=1 box=2; Richie Palacios: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	TB
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

KC@BOSHIT

Predicted: BOS 2-4 (conf +0.12, moderate)Actual: BOS 1-4Brier 0.194total bias +1

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 1; total bias +1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.963, recent +0.486, pitcher +0.034, composite +1.085
confidence pipeline reached 0.592 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.560
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Noah Cameron (KC) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
KC	Noah Cameron	4 ER / 18 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	-3
BOS	Payton Tolle	1 ER / 18 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.022 / away×0.989; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jac Caglianone (KC DH): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Caleb Durbin (BOS 3B): 1-for-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Nick Loftin (KC 3B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Adley Rutschman (BOS C): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.95]
Andruw Monasterio (BOS 2B): 0-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: Noah Cameron (KC) posted 1.50 ERA vs projected 6.00 (1 ER in 18 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Noah Cameron (KC) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 6 ERA (-4.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Caleb Durbin: 1-for-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Payton Tolle (BOS) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 1.5 ERA (-1.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Luke Maile: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.213, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
KC	Noah Cameron (Starter)	18 / 18	1.5 / 6 (-4.50)	1 / 4	4 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 5	1.79	4 / 3	4.99	venue away: 3.62 vs 4.58 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (average) · 28 prior appearances this season
KC	Nate Pearson (Setup Man)	3 / 4	18 / 0 (+18.00)	2 / 0	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.5	2 / 2	1.22
BOS	Payton Tolle (Starter)	18 / 18	0 / 1.5	0 / 1	4 / 5	0 / 0	1 / 0	1.65	7 / 5	7.22	venue home: 3.88 vs 2.5 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.99 (weak) · 24 prior appearances this season
BOS	Erik Miller (Setup Man)	1 / 5	27 / 5.4 (+21.60)	1 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.59	0 / 0	1.65
BOS	Garrett Whitlock (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.11	1 / 0	1.3

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Jac Caglianone (DH)	KC	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-1.4	0.355 elite	bad day
Caleb Durbin (3B)	BOS	1 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1.26	0.292 below average	good day
Nick Loftin (3B)	KC	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.29 below average	projection too high
Adley Rutschman (C)	BOS	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.95	0.335 above average	bad day
Andruw Monasterio (2B)	BOS	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.293 below average	projection too high
Salvador Perez (1B)	KC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.311 average	—
Nate Eaton (CF)	BOS	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.271 weak	—
Nick Sogard (1B)	BOS	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.316 average	—
Luke Maile (C)	KC	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.213 weak	—
Roman Anthony (LF)	BOS	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.349 elite	—
Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	3 / 1	-0.31	0.381 elite	—
Trevor Story (SS)	BOS	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.16	0.251 weak	—
Isaac Collins (LF)	KC	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	-0.14	0.297 below average	—
Matthew Lugo (RF)	KC	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.125 weak	—
Michael Massey (2B)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.308 average	—
Tyler Tolbert (CF)	KC	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.299 below average	—
Jahmai Jones (DH)	BOS	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.334 above average	—
Wilyer Abreu (RF)	BOS	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.352 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.963	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.486	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.034	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.085	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.67-5.69	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	2-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.67-5.69	4-6	-0.028	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	3-4	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	2-4	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-4	2-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-4	2-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-4	2-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
BOS	Payton Tolle	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 3
BOS	Jahmai Jones	batter / DH	better	predicted_H 2.82
BOS	Roman Anthony	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 2.62
KC	Tyler Tolbert	batter / CF	better	predicted_H 2.252
BOS	Erik Miller	pitcher / Setup Man	neutral	predicted_SO -2
BOS	Nick Sogard	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB -1.667
BOS	Adley Rutschman	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.58
KC	Matthew Lugo	batter / RF	better	predicted_AB 1.5

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BOS
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=5).	BOS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Jahmai Jones: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nate Eaton: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Andruw Monasterio: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Trevor Story: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	BOS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=5).	KC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Matthew Lugo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tyler Tolbert: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	KC
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

LAA@WASHIT

Predicted: WAS 5-6 (conf +0.14, moderate)Actual: WAS 5-6Brier 0.184total bias +0

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.14 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 0; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.275, recent -0.022, pitcher +0.098, composite +0.541
confidence pipeline reached 0.629 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.571
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAA	Grayson Rodriguez	3 ER / 14 outs	2 ER / 16 outs	-1
WAS	Riley Cornelio	2 ER / 12 outs	0 ER / 6 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.089 / away×0.991; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Daylen Lile (WAS LF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Moisés Ballesteros (LAA DH): 1-for-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Vaughn Grissom (LAA 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: Riley Cornelio (WAS) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 4.50 (0 ER in 6 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) threw 16 outs, 2 ER = 3.38 ERA against a projected 5.79 ERA (-2.41 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 10 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Daylen Lile: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.326, above average - real projection error
Jacob Young: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.314, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Riley Cornelio (WAS) threw 6 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (-4.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 3 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Moisés Ballesteros: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.293, below average - a good day, not a model error
Mike Trout: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.377, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
LAA	Grayson Rodriguez (Starter)	16 / 14	3.38 / 5.79	2 / 3	7 / 7	0 / 1	1 / 1	2.08	4 / 6	5.31	venue away: 4.71 vs 7.54 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.09 (strong) · 17 prior appearances this season
LAA	Tayler Saucedo (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	0 / 13.5 (-13.50)	0 / 1	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.16	0 / 2	0.89
WAS	Riley Cornelio (Starter)	6 / 12	0 / 4.5 (-4.50)	0 / 2	1 / 5	0 / 1	1 / 3	0	4 / 4	6.12	opp run factor 0.99 (weak) · 13 prior appearances this season
WAS	Erik Tolman (Setup Man)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.51	2 / 1	1.29

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Daylen Lile (LF)	WAS	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.09	0.326 above average	projection too low
Moisés Ballesteros (DH)	LAA	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.93	0.293 below average	good day
Vaughn Grissom (1B)	LAA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.305 average	no signal
Christian Moore (2B)	LAA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.245 weak	—
Jose Siri (LF)	LAA	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.305 average	—
Denzer Guzman (3B)	LAA	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.267 weak	—
Abimelec Ortiz (1B)	WAS	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.29 below average	—
Brady House (3B)	WAS	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.338 above average	—
James Wood (DH)	WAS	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.46	0.413 elite	—
Mike Trout (CF)	LAA	2 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0.33	0.377 elite	—
Jorbit Vivas (2B)	WAS	1 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.33	0.295 below average	—
Keibert Ruiz (C)	WAS	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.31	0.289 below average	—
Jacob Young (CF)	WAS	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.314 average	—
Wade Meckler (RF)	LAA	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	-0.14	0.314 average	—
CJ Abrams (SS)	WAS	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.33 above average	—
Zach Neto (SS)	LAA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0	0.31 average	—
Dylan Crews (RF)	WAS	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.311 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.275	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.022	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.098	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.541	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.66-6.03	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.571	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.66-6.03	5-6	-0.371	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	5-6	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	5-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	5-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	5-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	5-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
WAS	Abimelec Ortiz	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_H 2.7
WAS	Jacob Young	batter / CF	worse	predicted_H 2.33
LAA	Moisés Ballesteros	batter / DH	better	predicted_H 2.17
LAA	Denzer Guzman	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 2.015
WAS	Brady House	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 1.975
LAA	Travis d'Arnaud	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.86
WAS	James Wood	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO 1.68
WAS	Keibert Ruiz	batter / C	better	predicted_H 1.66

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=7).	LAA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jose Siri: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Mike Trout: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=12; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=9).	WAS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Abimelec Ortiz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Brady House: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Dylan Crews: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Keibert Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Daylen Lile: RBI current=1 box=0	WAS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

LAD@MIAMISS

Predicted: LAD 8-5 (conf -0.20, strong)Actual: MIA 4-6Brier 0.36total bias +3

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.20 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias +3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.178, recent -0.868, pitcher -0.012, composite -1.432
confidence pipeline reached 0.708 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.400
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 3 (13 vs 10)
LAD offense over-projected by 4
committed to LAD at 0.20 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAD	Emmet Sheehan	2 ER / 14 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-2
MIA	Eury Pérez	3 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 15 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×1.034 / away×1.046; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Josue De Paula (LAD DH): 2-for-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.51]
Max Muncy (LAD 3B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Freddie Freeman (LAD 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Mookie Betts (LAD SS): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]
Alex Freeland (LAD 2B): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]

Starter miss: Emmet Sheehan (LAD) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 3.86 (0 ER in 18 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Emmet Sheehan (LAD) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 3.86 ERA (-3.86 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 6 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 6 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Javier Sanoja: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Eury Pérez (MIA) threw 15 outs, 3 ER = 5.4 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (0 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 4 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 6 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Josue De Paula: 2-for-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+2.51 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.542, elite - real projection error
Mookie Betts: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error
Alex Freeland: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.288, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
LAD	Emmet Sheehan (Starter)	18 / 14	0 / 3.86 (-3.86)	0 / 2	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.35	5 / 2	5.47	venue away: 5.28 vs 4.91 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.03 (average) · 21 prior appearances this season
LAD	Alex Vesia (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.5	1 / 2	1.18
LAD	Brock Stewart (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	0 / 3	n/a / 18	1 / 2	1 / 2	1 / 1	0 / 0	0.48	0 / 2	0.74
LAD	Edgardo Henriquez (Setup Man)	2 / 3	27 / 0 (+27.00)	2 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.4	1 / 0	1.19
LAD	Tanner Scott (Closer)	1 / 4	81 / 0 (+81.00)	3 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.24	1 / 0	1.21
MIA	Eury Pérez (Starter)	15 / 15	5.4 / 5.4	3 / 3	4 / 4	1 / 1	2 / 2	3.18	5 / 6	5.25	venue home: 3.31 vs 4.54 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.05 (strong) · 26 prior appearances this season
MIA	Victor Vodnik (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 3	6.75 / 9	1 / 1	3 / 2	0 / 1	1 / 0	0.53	0 / 2	0.77

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Josue De Paula (DH)	LAD	2 / 3	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	2.51	0.542 elite	projection too low
Max Muncy (3B)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.35 elite	bad day
Freddie Freeman (1B)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.368 elite	bad day
Mookie Betts (SS)	LAD	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1.11	0.335 above average	projection too low
Alex Freeland (2B)	LAD	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.94	0.288 below average	good day
Griffin Conine (1B)	MIA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-0.8	0.368 elite	bad day
Will Smith (C)	LAD	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0.64	0.382 elite	projection too low
Kyle Stowers (DH)	MIA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 2	-0.64	0.328 above average	bad day
Heriberto Hernández (LF)	MIA	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.6	0.352 elite	bad day
Tommy Edman (CF)	LAD	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.311 average	—
Kyle Tucker (RF)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.327 above average	—
Jakob Marsee (CF)	MIA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.308 average	—
Javier Sanoja (2B)	MIA	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.31	0.292 below average	—
Otto Lopez (SS)	MIA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.327 above average	—
Joe Mack (C)	MIA	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.289 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.178	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.868	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.012	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.432	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.53-4.25	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	8-5	0.6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	8-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.53-4.25	5-4	0.719	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	8-5	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	8-5	8-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8-5	8-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8-5	8-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8-5	8-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
LAD	Freddie Freeman	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 2.57
MIA	Otto Lopez	batter / SS	worse	predicted_H -1.84
MIA	Joe Mack	batter / C	deboosted	predicted_RBI 1.78
MIA	Griffin Conine	batter / 1B	neutral	predicted_RBI 1.526
LAD	Alex Freeland	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.312
LAD	Teoscar Hernández	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 1.17
MIA	Jakob Marsee	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.145
MIA	Heriberto Hernández	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO -1.044

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAD
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=11).	LAD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Will Smith: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Josue De Paula: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Alex Freeland: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1	LAD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8).	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=6).	MIA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Owen Caissie: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Graham Pauley: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	MIA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

NYM@NYYHIT

Predicted: NYY 5-6 (conf +0.13, moderate)Actual: NYY 0-2Brier 0.19total bias +9

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.13 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 9; total bias +9
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.882, recent -0.012, pitcher +0.108, composite +0.900
confidence pipeline reached 0.597 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.564
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 9 (11 vs 2)
NYM offense over-projected by 5
NYY offense over-projected by 4

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
NYM	Christian Scott	2 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	0
NYY	Cam Schlittler	1 ER / 19 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.089 / away×0.981; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Juan Soto (NYM DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Aaron Judge (NYY DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Cody Bellinger (NYY LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Austin Wells (NYY C): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
A.J. Ewing (NYM CF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Christian Scott (NYM) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (-0.6 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 2 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 3 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Austin Wells: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.288, below average - a good day, not a model error
Anthony Volpe: 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.289, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Cam Schlittler (NYY) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 1.42 ERA (-1.42 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 9 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 3 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 6 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Brett Baty: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.312, average - a good day, not a model error
Francisco Alvarez: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
NYM	Christian Scott (Starter)	18 / 15	3 / 3.6	2 / 2	3 / 4	2 / 2	2 / 4	2.46	7 / 4	5.53	venue away: 3.98 vs 3.92 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.09 (strong) · 21 prior appearances this season
NYM	Nathan Lavender (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 27 (-27.00)	0 / 3	0 / 5	0 / 1	1 / 0	0.23	1 / 2	1.15
NYY	Cam Schlittler (Starter)	18 / 19	0 / 1.42	0 / 1	1 / 6	0 / 0	2 / 1	1.91	8 / 7	8.72	venue home: 3.21 vs 1.14 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 30 prior appearances this season
NYY	Brent Headrick (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.39	1 / 0	1.38
NYY	David Bednar (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 27 (-27.00)	0 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.22	1 / 0	1.3
NYY	Paul Blackburn (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	0 / 13.5 (-13.50)	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.44	0 / 0	1.08

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Juan Soto (DH)	NYM	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.413 elite	bad day
Aaron Judge (DH)	NYY	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 2	-1.73	0.403 elite	bad day
Cody Bellinger (LF)	NYY	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.338 above average	bad day
Austin Wells (C)	NYY	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1.07	0.288 below average	good day
A.J. Ewing (CF)	NYM	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.322 above average	bad day
Brett Baty (LF)	NYM	3 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.312 average	no signal
Carson Benge (RF)	NYM	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.334 above average	—
Francisco Lindor (SS)	NYM	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.333 above average	—
Francisco Alvarez (C)	NYM	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2	0.47	0.325 above average	—
Anthony Volpe (2B)	NYY	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.289 below average	—
Spencer Jones (CF)	NYY	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 2	-0.33	0.331 above average	—
Bo Bichette (3B)	NYM	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.31	0.329 above average	—
Jared Young (1B)	NYM	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.314 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.882	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.012	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.108	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.9	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.84-5.74	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.564	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.84-5.74	4-6	0.094	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	5-6	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	5-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	5-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	5-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	5-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
NYY	Paul Goldschmidt	batter / 1B	better	predicted_H 3.49
NYM	Francisco Alvarez	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 2.51
NYY	Amed Rosario	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 2.289
NYY	Cam Schlittler	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 2
NYM	Juan Soto	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.415
NYY	Heliot Ramos	batter / RF	deboosted	predicted_AB 1.398
NYY	Aaron Judge	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.387
NYM	Jared Young	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.341

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYM
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYY
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=7).	NYM
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2; Marcus Semien: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; A.J. Ewing: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jared Young: SO current=1 box=2; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=13; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=11, sim=9).	NYY
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Aaron Judge: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=2 box=1; Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Paul Goldschmidt: H current=1 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Amed Rosario: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Spencer Jones: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Wells: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	NYY
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

PHI@ATLMISS

Predicted: ATL 4-5 (conf +0.09, lean)Actual: PHI 9-4Brier 0.295total bias -4

Root cause: Small edge on the losing side

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.09 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias -4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.365, recent +0.078, pitcher +0.037, composite +0.483
confidence pipeline reached 0.560 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.543
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 4 (9 vs 13)
PHI offense under-projected by 5

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
PHI	Andrew Painter	2 ER / 16 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	-1
ATL	Grant Holmes	3 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 12 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.02 / away×0.983; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

J.T. Realmuto (PHI C): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.65]
Mauricio Dubón (ATL LF): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.27]
Bryson Stott (PHI 3B): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.92]
Trea Turner (PHI SS): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Alec Bohm (PHI 1B): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Andrew Painter (PHI) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 3.38 ERA (-1.58 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 12 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Mauricio Dubón: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.27 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.305, average - a good day, not a model error
Michael Harris II: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.63 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.34, elite - real projection error
Matt Olson: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.61 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.355, elite - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Grant Holmes (ATL) threw 12 outs, 2 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (-0.9 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 4 ER over 2 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 15 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

J.T. Realmuto: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+2.65 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - real projection error
Bryson Stott: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.92 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.327, above average - real projection error
Trea Turner: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.291, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
PHI	Andrew Painter (Starter)	15 / 16	1.8 / 3.38	1 / 2	6 / 5	0 / 1	4 / 3	1.72	3 / 5	4.53	venue away: 4.99 vs 6.56 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (strong) · 22 prior appearances this season
ATL	Grant Holmes (Starter)	12 / 15	4.5 / 5.4	2 / 3	5 / 3	1 / 2	2 / 3	1.71	0 / 5	3.36	venue home: 4.8 vs 2.58 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 29 prior appearances this season
ATL	Dylan Lee (Setup Man)	2 / 3	54 / 0 (+54.00)	4 / 0	4 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.21	0 / 0	1.02

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
J.T. Realmuto (C)	PHI	5 / 3	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2.65	0.323 above average	projection too low
Mauricio Dubón (LF)	ATL	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1.27	0.305 average	no signal
Bryson Stott (3B)	PHI	5 / 3	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.92	0.327 above average	projection too low
Trea Turner (SS)	PHI	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.8	0.291 below average	good day
Alec Bohm (1B)	PHI	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.78	0.324 above average	projection too low
Luis Arraez (2B)	PHI	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.78	0.303 below average	projection too high
Bryce Harper (RF)	PHI	5 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.76	0.389 elite	projection too low
Michael Harris II (CF)	ATL	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.63	0.34 elite	projection too low
Matt Olson (1B)	ATL	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.61	0.355 elite	projection too low
Brandon Marsh (LF)	PHI	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.304 average	—
Ozzie Albies (2B)	ATL	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.281 weak	—
Kyle Schwarber (DH)	PHI	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.46	0.365 elite	—
Justin Crawford (CF)	PHI	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.286 below average	—
Drake Baldwin (C)	ATL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.362 elite	—
Ha-Seong Kim (SS)	ATL	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.19	0.229 weak	—
Ronald Acuña Jr. (DH)	ATL	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.362 elite	—
Austin Riley (3B)	ATL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.3 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.365	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.078	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.037	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.483	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.42-5.08	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.543	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.42-5.08	4-5	0.345	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
ATL	Michael Harris II	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 3.54
ATL	Ha-Seong Kim	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB 2.111
ATL	Brewer Hicklen	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 2
PHI	Luis Arraez	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_H -1.52
PHI	Alec Bohm	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.391
ATL	Austin Riley	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 1.32
ATL	Matt Olson	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB 1.156
PHI	Trea Turner	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.11

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ATL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=42; H: current=9, sim=12; 2B: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9).	ATL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: RBI current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Mauricio Dubón: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ha-Seong Kim: AB current=3 box=5, SO current=1 box=2; Brewer Hicklen: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Harris II: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4	ATL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=6, sim=7).	PHI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Bryson Stott: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: HR current=0 box=1; Brandon Marsh: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Justin Crawford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	PHI
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

PIT@CHCMISS

Predicted: CHC 3-4 (conf +0.04, toss_up)Actual: PIT 4-3Brier 0.269total bias +0

Root cause: Genuine toss-up that flipped

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.04 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.567, recent +0.242, pitcher +0.133, composite +0.844
confidence pipeline reached 0.526 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.519
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
PIT	Bubba Chandler	1 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 16 outs	2
CHC	Matthew Boyd	3 ER / 18 outs	4 ER / 16 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.089 / away×0.957; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Miguel Amaya (CHC C): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC CF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Seiya Suzuki (CHC RF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Rafael Flores Jr. (PIT 1B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Jake Mangum (PIT RF): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]

Starter miss: Bubba Chandler (PIT) posted 5.06 ERA vs projected 1.80 (3 ER in 16 outs); he faced a strong offense (opponent run factor 1.09, bucket strong).

What to do: Consider raising context.opponent_strength_weight; validate across the rolling window before promotion.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Bubba Chandler (PIT) threw 16 outs, 3 ER = 5.06 ERA against a projected 1.8 ERA (3.26 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Miguel Amaya: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.296, below average - a good day, not a model error
Alex Bregman: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.321, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Matthew Boyd (CHC) threw 16 outs, 4 ER = 6.75 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (2.25 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 8 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jake Mangum: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.287, below average - a good day, not a model error
Oneil Cruz: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.358, elite - real projection error
Nick Gonzales: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.326, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
PIT	Bubba Chandler (Starter)	16 / 15	5.06 / 1.8 (+3.26)	3 / 1	5 / 4	1 / 0	4 / 1	2.16	3 / 4	4.9	venue away: 4.29 vs 4.31 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.09 (strong) · 28 prior appearances this season
PIT	Luke Weaver (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.27	0 / 0	1.09
PIT	Mason Montgomery (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0 / 0	1.49
CHC	Matthew Boyd (Starter)	16 / 18	6.75 / 4.5	4 / 3	7 / 5	0 / 0	2 / 3	2.26	3 / 3	4.22	venue home: 5.4 vs 2.95 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.96 (average) · 19 prior appearances this season
CHC	Daniel Palencia (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.41	1 / 3	0.85

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Miguel Amaya (C)	CHC	3 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.87	0.296 below average	good day
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)	CHC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.374 elite	bad day
Seiya Suzuki (RF)	CHC	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-1.4	0.341 elite	bad day
Rafael Flores Jr. (1B)	PIT	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.26	0.335 above average	bad day
Jake Mangum (RF)	PIT	3 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.11	0.287 below average	good day
Oneil Cruz (CF)	PIT	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 1	0.66	0.358 elite	projection too low
Ryan O'Hearn (DH)	PIT	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.315 average	—
Jared Triolo (3B)	PIT	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.288 below average	—
Nico Hoerner (SS)	CHC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.324 above average	—
Nick Gonzales (2B)	PIT	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.31	0.326 above average	—
Alex Bregman (3B)	CHC	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0.31	0.321 above average	—
Michael Busch (1B)	CHC	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.17	0.33 above average	—
Bryan Reynolds (LF)	PIT	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.16	0.359 elite	—
Pedro Ramirez (2B)	CHC	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.29 below average	—
Ian Happ (LF)	CHC	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	-0.14	0.316 average	—
Michael Conforto (DH)	CHC	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.33 above average	—
Konnor Griffin (SS)	PIT	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.303 below average	—
Henry Davis (C)	PIT	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.285 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.567	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.242	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.133	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.844	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.47-4.92	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.519	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.47-4.92	4-5	0.555	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	3-4	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CHC	Seiya Suzuki	batter / RF	neutral	predicted_RBI 2.74
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.49
PIT	Oneil Cruz	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.12
PIT	Bryan Reynolds	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB -1.8
CHC	Michael Conforto	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
CHC	Miguel Amaya	batter / C	worse	predicted_H 1.45
PIT	Jared Triolo	batter / 3B	better	predicted_SO 1.36
PIT	Jake Mangum	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 1.25

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PIT
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=5, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=5).	CHC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: AB current=3 box=4	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=8).	PIT
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Rafael Flores Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: H current=1 box=0; Ryan O'Hearn: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jared Triolo: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Henry Davis: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	PIT
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SD@SFHIT

Predicted: SD 6-4 (conf -0.08, lean)Actual: SD 6-4Brier 0.213total bias +0

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 0; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.638, recent -0.642, pitcher -0.051, composite -0.984
confidence pipeline reached 0.574 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.461
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Logan Webb (SF) allowed 5 more ER than projected (6 vs 1)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SD	Nick Pivetta	4 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 12 outs	-2
SF	Logan Webb	1 ER / 16 outs	6 ER / 15 outs	5

Decision internals: run factors home×0.973 / away×1.024; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Ethan Salas (SD C): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Christian Koss (SF SS): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Andrew Knizner (SF C): 1-for-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Luis Campusano (SD DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Xander Bogaerts (SD SS): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Logan Webb (SF) posted 10.80 ERA vs projected 1.69 (6 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Nick Pivetta (SD) threw 12 outs, 2 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-2.7 ERA error) only 5 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 9 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 7 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Christian Koss: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.255, weak - a good day, not a model error
Andrew Knizner: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.295, below average - a good day, not a model error
Shay Whitcomb: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.27, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Logan Webb (SF) threw 15 outs, 6 ER = 10.8 ERA against a projected 1.69 ERA (9.11 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 9 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Ethan Salas: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.122, weak - a good day, not a model error
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.63 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.376, elite - real projection error
Jackson Merrill: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.347, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
SD	Nick Pivetta (Starter)	12 / 15	4.5 / 7.2	2 / 4	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 2	1.26	5 / 7	5.3	venue away: 3.6 vs 3.38 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.97 (weak) · 5 prior appearances this season
SF	Logan Webb (Starter)	15 / 16	10.8 / 1.69 (+9.11)	6 / 1	8 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 2	1.46	7 / 5	5.16	venue home: 3.26 vs 5.29 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (average) · 26 prior appearances this season
SF	Trent Harris (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.38	1 / 1	1.31

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Ethan Salas (C)	SD	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.09	0.122 weak	good day
Christian Koss (SS)	SF	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.94	0.255 weak	good day
Andrew Knizner (C)	SF	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.93	0.295 below average	good day
Luis Campusano (DH)	SD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.337 above average	bad day
Xander Bogaerts (SS)	SD	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	-0.8	0.318 average	no signal
Bryce Eldridge (1B)	SF	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.79	0.354 elite	bad day
Jung Hoo Lee (RF)	SF	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.78	0.316 average	no signal
Fernando Tatis Jr. (2B)	SD	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.63	0.376 elite	projection too low
Drew Gilbert (LF)	SF	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.328 above average	—
Shay Whitcomb (2B)	SF	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.27 weak	—
Jackson Merrill (CF)	SD	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.347 elite	—
Dustin Harris (RF)	SD	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.321 above average	—
Jake Cronenworth (1B)	SD	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.268 weak	—
Manny Machado (3B)	SD	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.337 above average	—
Samad Taylor (LF)	SD	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.303 below average	—
Scott Bandura (DH)	SF	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0	—	—
Brett Harris (3B)	SF	2 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.311 average	—
Jonah Cox (CF)	SF	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.259 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.638	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.642	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.051	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.984	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.29-3.39	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.539	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.29-3.39	5-3	0.097	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	6-5	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-4	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-4	6-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-4	6-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-4	6-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SD	Jackson Merrill	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -3.42
SD	Xander Bogaerts	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 2.6
SF	Jung Hoo Lee	batter / RF	deboosted	predicted_RBI 2.45
SF	Scott Bandura	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO 2.137
SD	Luis Campusano	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 2.016
SD	Ethan Salas	batter / C	better	predicted_H 1.86
SD	Dustin Harris	batter / RF	boosted	predicted_SO 1.538
SF	Shay Whitcomb	batter / 2B	better	predicted_AB 1.379

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SD
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SF
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1).	SD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dustin Harris: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Luis Campusano: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Manny Machado: H current=1 box=2; Samad Taylor: BB current=0 box=1; Ethan Salas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	SD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).	SF
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drew Gilbert: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Scott Bandura: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Brett Harris: AB current=2 box=3, SO current=1 box=2; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jung Hoo Lee: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	SF
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SEA@OAKMISS

Predicted: SEA 6-5 (conf -0.12, moderate)Actual: OAK 7-8Brier 0.314total bias -4

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias -4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.721, recent +0.030, pitcher -0.132, composite -0.859
confidence pipeline reached 0.598 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.440
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 4 (11 vs 15)
OAK offense under-projected by 3
committed to SEA at 0.12 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SEA	Bryce Miller	4 ER / 16 outs	2 ER / 15 outs	-2
OAK	Jacob Lopez	6 ER / 15 outs	5 ER / 11 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.931 / away×1.063; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Randy Arozarena (SEA LF): 3-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.16]
Lawrence Butler (OAK RF): 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2]
Alika Williams (OAK SS): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.42]
Zack Gelof (OAK 3B): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 1.13]
Jhonny Pereda (SEA C): 2-for-2, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]

Starter miss: Bryce Miller (SEA) posted 3.60 ERA vs projected 6.75 (2 ER in 15 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (4.80 ERA there vs 3.66 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Bryce Miller (SEA) threw 15 outs, 2 ER = 3.6 ERA against a projected 6.75 ERA (-3.15 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 2 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 8 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Lawrence Butler: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI [+2 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - real projection error
Alika Williams: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.42 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.243, weak - a good day, not a model error
Zack Gelof: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.13 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Jacob Lopez (OAK) threw 11 outs, 5 ER = 12.27 ERA against a projected 10.8 ERA (1.47 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 8 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 12 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Randy Arozarena: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI [+2.16 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.347, elite - real projection error
Jhonny Pereda: 2-for-2, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.348, elite - real projection error
Josh Naylor: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
SEA	Bryce Miller (Starter)	15 / 16	3.6 / 6.75 (-3.15)	2 / 4	2 / 4	2 / 2	5 / 1	2.68	5 / 7	5.21	venue away: 4.8 vs 3.66 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 19 prior appearances this season
SEA	Andrés Muñoz (Closer)	2 / 5	27 / 0 (+27.00)	2 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.49	1 / 2	1.48
OAK	Jacob Lopez (Starter)	11 / 15	12.27 / 10.8	5 / 6	6 / 7	1 / 3	3 / 1	1.82	3 / 7	5.3	venue home: 5.21 vs 4.02 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.06 (weak) · 24 prior appearances this season
OAK	Luis Medina (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.62	1 / 1	1.88
OAK	Elvis Alvarado (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.45	0 / 3	1.17
OAK	Hogan Harris (Setup Man)	3 / 4	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.55	0 / 0	1.18

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Randy Arozarena (LF)	SEA	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	4 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2.16	0.347 elite	projection too low
Lawrence Butler (RF)	OAK	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	4 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2	0.325 above average	projection too low
Alika Williams (SS)	OAK	3 / 3	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.42	0.243 weak	good day
Zack Gelof (3B)	OAK	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	3 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	1.13	0.313 average	no signal
Jhonny Pereda (C)	SEA	2 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.11	0.348 elite	projection too low
Josh Naylor (1B)	SEA	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.8	0.316 average	no signal
Henry Bolte (CF)	OAK	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.78	0.317 average	no signal
Dominic Canzone (RF)	SEA	5 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.62	0.352 elite	bad day
Michael Arroyo (2B)	SEA	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 0	0 / 1	0.52	0.447 elite	projection too low
Max Muncy (DH)	OAK	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.29 below average	—
Cal Raleigh (DH)	SEA	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.312 average	—
Weston Wilson (3B)	SEA	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.261 weak	—
Julio Rodríguez (CF)	SEA	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.31	0.335 above average	—
Jeff McNeil (1B)	OAK	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.31	0.304 average	—
Carlos Cortes (LF)	OAK	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.305 average	—
Brian Serven (C)	OAK	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.293 below average	—
Donovan Walton (2B)	OAK	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.02	0.336 above average	—
J.P. Crawford (SS)	SEA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.322 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.721	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.03	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.132	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.859	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.7-4.6	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.7-4.6	6-5	-0.104	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	6-5	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	6-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
OAK	Jeff McNeil	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 2.581
OAK	Henry Bolte	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.873
SEA	Josh Naylor	batter / 1B	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.62
SEA	Julio Rodríguez	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.55
OAK	Lawrence Butler	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.48
OAK	Carlos Cortes	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.473
SEA	Cal Raleigh	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.469
OAK	Zack Gelof	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.36

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	OAK
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SEA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=11).	OAK
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeff McNeil: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Henry Bolte: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Brian Serven: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=11).	SEA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Cal Raleigh: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; J.P. Crawford: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Randy Arozarena: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jhonny Pereda: H current=1 box=0	SEA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TEX@ARIHIT

Predicted: TEX 4-3 (conf -0.01, toss_up)Actual: TEX 7-6Brier 0.244total bias -6

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias -6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.312, recent +0.110, pitcher -0.056, composite -0.103
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.494
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 6 (7 vs 13)
TEX offense under-projected by 3
ARI offense under-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TEX	Cal Quantrill	3 ER / 18 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	-1
ARI	Eduardo Rodriguez	2 ER / 18 outs	3 ER / 16 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.942 / away×0.998; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Nolan Arenado (ARI 3B): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.71]
Corey Seager (TEX SS): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.54]
Jake Burger (TEX 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Jordan Lawlar (ARI CF): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]
Wyatt Langford (TEX LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Cal Quantrill (TEX) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (-1.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 12 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Nolan Arenado: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.71 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.293, below average - a good day, not a model error
Jordan Lawlar: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.328, above average - real projection error
Gabriel Moreno: 1-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.359, elite - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) at a projected 3 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 10 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Corey Seager: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.54 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.353, elite - real projection error
Danny Jansen: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.261, weak - a good day, not a model error
Brandon Nimmo: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.346, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
TEX	Cal Quantrill (Starter)	18 / 18	3 / 4.5	2 / 3	5 / 7	1 / 2	0 / 1	0.73	4 / 5	5.36	venue away: 4.17 vs 0.97 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.94 (average) · 30 prior appearances this season
TEX	Jacob Latz (Closer)	3 / 4	18 / 0 (+18.00)	2 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.4	1 / 0	1.62

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Nolan Arenado (3B)	ARI	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.71	0.293 below average	good day
Corey Seager (SS)	TEX	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.54	0.353 elite	projection too low
Jake Burger (1B)	TEX	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-1.4	0.315 average	no signal
Jordan Lawlar (CF)	ARI	2 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.11	0.328 above average	projection too low
Wyatt Langford (LF)	TEX	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 0	-0.8	0.316 average	no signal
Danny Jansen (DH)	TEX	4 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.261 weak	good day
Gabriel Moreno (DH)	ARI	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.62	0.359 elite	projection too low
Geraldo Perdomo (SS)	ARI	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0.61	0.326 above average	projection too low
Ketel Marte (2B)	ARI	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	-0.6	0.346 elite	bad day
Brandon Nimmo (RF)	TEX	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.346 elite	—
Elias Díaz (C)	TEX	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.272 weak	—
Corbin Carroll (RF)	ARI	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.341 elite	—
Tim Tawa (1B)	ARI	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.314 average	—
Josh Jung (3B)	TEX	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.17	0.346 elite	—
Lars Nootbaar (LF)	ARI	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.349 elite	—
Ezequiel Duran (CF)	TEX	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.02	0.306 average	—
Justin Foscue (2B)	TEX	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.329 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.312	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.11	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.056	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.103	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.69-5.45	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-3	0.506	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.69-5.45	4-5	0.76	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-3	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	4-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	4-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	4-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	4-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TEX	Josh Jung	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -2.05
ARI	Gabriel Moreno	batter / DH	worse	predicted_H 1.907
TEX	Brandon Nimmo	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -1.7
TEX	Danny Jansen	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.623
TEX	Justin Foscue	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
ARI	James McCann	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.5
TEX	Wyatt Langford	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.41
TEX	Elias Díaz	batter / C	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.39

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ARI
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=5).	ARI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=5; Nolan Arenado: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; James McCann: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0	ARI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=10).	TEX
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Josh Jung: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Danny Jansen: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	TEX
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, and exactly which games it would help versus hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

Day over day: did it improve or worsen

Compared against packet 20260912. Last recorded change: v4.30.0 (2026-09-08) Hitter shrinkage is derived from the between-hitter spread rather than fitted to slate error, so an established extreme profile is no longer flattened toward the league.

Metric	Prior	Current	Δ	Result
brier_score	0.2417	0.2425	+0.000839	regressed
accuracy	0.6083	0.6083	+0	flat
team_run_mae	2.5042	2.5125	+0.0083	regressed
total_run_mae	3.8417	3.7917	-0.05	improved
calibration_error	0.0961	0.0977	+0.0016	regressed
starter_er_mae	1.8661	1.7676	-0.0985	improved
starter_outs_mae	3.2134	3.2365	+0.0231	regressed

Deep slate report — 20260913

Process, end to end

Slate summary

What drove the losses

Source coverage receipt

High-level causal issue register

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Probability lineage and calibration

Score distribution and margin compression

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

BAL@TORHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CHW@STLHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CIN@MILMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CLE@MINMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

COL@DETHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

HOU@TBHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

KC@BOSHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

LAA@WASHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

LAD@MIAMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

NYM@NYYHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)