Deep slate report 20260908

Which reports actually fed the diagnosis. A source shown as missing was not silently assumed.

High-level causal issue register

Source	Status	Evidence supplied	Path	Bytes
prediction review	loaded	official outcomes and scoring errors	/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260908.json	379486
forensic deep audit	loaded	probability, provenance, starter and decision contracts	/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260908.json	240861
continuous learning	loaded	pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage, score distribution, and official starter comparisons	/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260908.json	2451472
detailed report	loaded	full game and simulation rendering	/app/output/reports/detailed_20260908.html	356289
ultra detailed player audit	loaded	player-level prediction trace	/app/output/reports/20260908_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html	30786976
structural audit	loaded	all invariant findings	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260908.html	1824304
integrity revision audit	missing	post-Luna remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260908_integrity_revision.html	n/a

Deterministic findings across data integrity, model validation, calibration, score distribution, pipeline stages, simulation, and coverage. Critical is reserved for broken evidence or an unexplained contract violation; high marks material model/process risk. Each row pairs the action to take (Do this) with the wrong conclusion to avoid (Don't conclude).

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

A finding that has repeated at or beyond the escalation streak is no longer single-slate noise. It carries its target registered lever and an action-oriented guardrail.

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Every stored stage is scored against the same official finals. A later recovery remains visible; it does not erase an unstable intermediate flip.

Probability lineage and calibration

All columns are pick-side probabilities, so away favorites are not accidentally compared using home-side semantics.

Score distribution and margin compression

Narrow predicted margins next to wide actual margins is the signature the score-variance tail is too tight.

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

Severity	Domain	Finding and evidence	Affected	Action & guardrail
CRITICAL	probability_lineage	Published probability differs materially without a recorded transformation 3 game(s) have an unexplained ≥2pp calibrated-to-published delta	ARI@KC, HOU@PHI, TB@ATL	Do thisBlock any promotion until the missing probability transformation is recorded and reconciled. Don't concludeDo not assume the probability governor was bypassed until you have traced the pick-side math.
HIGH	calibration	Published confidence buckets were poorly aligned on this slate weighted absolute calibration error 0.1825 across 15 games	ARI@KC, CHC@MIL, CIN@LAD, CLE@BAL, COL@NYY, HOU@PHI, LAA@BOS, MIN@DET, NYM@MIA, PIT@CHW, STL@SF, TB@ATL, TEX@SEA, TOR@OAK, WAS@SD	Do thisWatch the same confidence buckets over the full rolling window before changing any calibration weight. Don't concludeA single slate has far too few games to establish a stable calibration curve.
HIGH	model_validation	Validated run models explain very little holdout variance home/away/total R² = 0.0118/0.0210/0.0207	ARI@KC, CHC@MIL, CIN@LAD, CLE@BAL, COL@NYY, HOU@PHI, LAA@BOS, MIN@DET, NYM@MIA, PIT@CHW, STL@SF, TB@ATL, TEX@SEA, TOR@OAK, WAS@SD	Do thisTreat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails. Don't concludeA small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.
INFO	coverage	Every settled game received structural QA 15/15 games structurally audited	ARI@KC, CHC@MIL, CIN@LAD, CLE@BAL, COL@NYY, HOU@PHI, LAA@BOS, MIN@DET, NYM@MIA, PIT@CHW, STL@SF, TB@ATL, TEX@SEA, TOR@OAK, WAS@SD	Do thisKeep the per-game audit receipt in every report. Don't concludeFull audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.
INFO	simulation	Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate flip candidates 0; published flips 0	ARI@KC, CHC@MIL, CIN@LAD, CLE@BAL, COL@NYY, HOU@PHI, LAA@BOS, MIN@DET, NYM@MIA, PIT@CHW, STL@SF, TB@ATL, TEX@SEA, TOR@OAK, WAS@SD	Do thisMeasure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping. Don't concludeZero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Finding	Persistence	Target lever(s)	Direction	Guardrail
simulation_inert_on_slate	11 consecutive · 11 in window	simulation.allow_score	confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping	simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
weak_run_model_signal	11 consecutive · 11 in window	training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate	investigate features/target via isolated training backtest (manual)	weak_run_model_signal has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Finding	Consecutive slates	Incidence	Present now	Fix type
high_raw_probability_cluster	0	3/11	no	param
pipeline_winner_instability	0	4/11	no	code/diagnostic
score_margin_compression	0	3/11	no	param
simulation_inert_on_slate	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic
single_slate_calibration_instability	2	6/11	yes	param
weak_run_model_signal	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic

Metric	Direction	Series (old → new)
winner_accuracy	improving	[0.9412, 0.5, 0.6667, 0.4667, 0.3333, 0.5556, 0.625, 0.5333, 0.6, 0.5455, 0.7333]
weighted_calibration_error	flat	[0.3961, 0.0693, 0.1661, 0.2476, 0.21, 0.1474, 0.1316, 0.1, 0.0937, 0.2611, 0.1825]
margin_bias	improving	[-1.882, -2.786, -3.5, -2.533, -3.067, -1.778, -0.688, -1.467, -1.467, -0.182, -0.867]
team_run_error_on_losses	regressing	[3.0, 7.0, 8.25, 7.125, 6.4, 6.75, 6.0, 5.286, 5.333, 3.8, 6.75]

Stage	Winner hits	Accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
historical_ml	11/15	73.3%	1.907	3.047	2.547
variance_applied	9/15	60%	1.833	3	2.467
enhanced_prediction	11/15	73.3%	2.167	3.667	2.467
embedded_savant_run_environment	11/15	73.3%	2.233	3.667	2.733
fundamental_edge_target_review	11/15	73.3%	2.233	3.667	2.733
capped_target	11/15	73.3%	2.233	3.667	2.733
simulation_result	11/15	73.3%	2.233	3.667	2.733
published_final	11/15	73.3%	2.233	3.667	2.733

Transition	Δ accuracy	Δ hits	Δ team-run MAE	Δ margin MAE	Games whose winner/tie changed
historical_ml → variance_applied	-0.1333	-2	-0.0736	-0.0808	HOU@PHI: HOU → TIE; STL@SF: SF → TIE
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction	0.1333	2	0.3334	0	CLE@BAL: BAL → CLE; HOU@PHI: TIE → HOU; LAA@BOS: LAA → BOS; STL@SF: TIE → STL; TEX@SEA: SEA → TEX
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment	0	0	0.0666	0.2666
embedded_savant_run_environment → fundamental_edge_target_review	0	0	0	0
fundamental_edge_target_review → capped_target	0	0	0	0
capped_target → simulation_result	0	0	0	0
simulation_result → published_final	0	0	0	0

Game	Outcome	Raw model	Calibrated	Governor	Score coherence	Published	Explanation
ARI@KC	hit	0.656	0.6339	0.6339	0.6339	0.5736	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
CHC@MIL	hit	0.6488	0.5819	0.5819	0.5819	0.54	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CIN@LAD	hit	0.8483	0.6718	0.6718	0.6718	0.6718	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
CLE@BAL	hit	0.5	0.5071	0.5071	0.5071	0.5051	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
COL@NYY	hit	0.8126	0.6531	0.6531	0.6531	0.6448	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
HOU@PHI	hit	0.5638	0.5911	0.5911	0.5865	0.5536	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
LAA@BOS	miss	0.5134	0.5841	0.5841	0.583	0.5273	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
MIN@DET	miss	0.6516	0.583	0.583	0.5825	0.54	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
NYM@MIA	hit	0.5787	0.5466	0.5466	0.5466	0.5337	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
PIT@CHW	miss	0.5355	0.5227	0.5227	0.5227	0.5193	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
STL@SF	miss	0.5083	0.5725	0.5725	0.5725	0.526	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
TB@ATL	hit	0.5521	0.5447	0.5447	0.5447	0.5215	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
TEX@SEA	hit	0.5	0.5343	0.5343	0.5343	0.5248	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
TOR@OAK	hit	0.6234	0.6173	0.6173	0.5996	0.56	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
WAS@SD	hit	0.5473	0.5291	0.5291	0.5291	0.5211	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail

Sides analyzed	Broke on pitching	Broke on offense	Both	Variance	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj
30	7	15	0	8	-0.15	-0.23

Game	Trained p(home)	Blended p(home)	Blend favoured	Published p(home)	Published side	Artifact says winner changed	Outcome
CLE@BAL	0.603	0.549	home	0.495	away	yes	hit
TEX@SEA	0.684	0.578	home	0.475	away	yes	hit

Slate	Games	Winner acc	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj	Sides broke on pitching	Sides broke on offense
20260907	11	0.545	-0.86	-0.36	5	4
20260906	15	0.600	0.74	-0.30	6	10
20260905	15	0.533	-1.17	-0.07	2	6
20260904	16	0.625	-0.23	-0.44	5	12
20260903	9	0.556	0.24	-0.83	4	6
20260902	15	0.333	0.72	0.30	7	6
20260901	15	0.467	1.48	1.07	9	3
20260831	12	0.667	0.83	0.08	2	7
20260830	14	0.500	-0.36	-0.29	3	7
20260829	17	0.941	—	—
20260828	15	0.467	—	—

Game	Pred margin	Actual margin	Pred − actual
ARI@KC	2	2	0
CHC@MIL	2	1	1
CIN@LAD	6	1	5
CLE@BAL	1	4	-3
COL@NYY	6	2	4
HOU@PHI	1	1	0
LAA@BOS	1	5	-4
MIN@DET	1	1	0
NYM@MIA	1	2	-1
PIT@CHW	1	6	-5
STL@SF	1	1	0
TB@ATL	1	6	-5
TEX@SEA	1	5	-4
TOR@OAK	1	2	-1
WAS@SD	1	1	0

ARI@KCHIT

Predicted: ARI 5-3 (conf -0.15, moderate)Actual: ARI 5-3Brier 0.182total bias +0

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.15 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 0; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.579, recent -0.614, pitcher -0.006, composite -0.844
confidence pipeline reached 0.634 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.426
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Michael Wacha (KC) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
ARI	Corbin Burnes	1 ER / 4 outs	0 ER / 9 outs	-1
KC	Michael Wacha	3 ER / 19 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×1 / away×1.006; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Tim Tawa (ARI RF): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Carter Jensen (KC C): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Michael Massey (KC 2B): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Nolan Arenado (ARI 3B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.74]
Ketel Marte (ARI 2B): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.66]

Starter miss: Michael Wacha (KC) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 4.26 (0 ER in 18 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

Per-pitch matchup fields are not populated in the current feeds, so this is reconstructed from the settled box: each starter's workload-adjusted ERA, the bullpen share behind him, and the opposing lineup's real production against its projection, with the hitters who beat that projection named.

AWAY pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Corbin Burnes (ARI) at a projected 6.75 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 6 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Michael Massey: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.303, below average - a good day, not a model error
Salvador Perez: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.31, average - a good day, not a model error
Nick Loftin: 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.295, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Michael Wacha (KC) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 4.26 ERA (-4.26 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 6 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Tim Tawa: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.302, below average - a good day, not a model error
Ketel Marte: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.347, elite - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
KC	Michael Wacha (Starter)	18 / 19	0 / 4.26 (-4.26)	0 / 3	3 / 7	0 / 1	4 / 1	4 / 6	venue home: 3.15 vs 3.56 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 28 prior appearances this season
KC	Steven Cruz (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
ARI	Tim Tawa (RF)	5 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.87	0.302 below average	good day
KC	Carter Jensen (C)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	-1.07	0.305 average	no signal
KC	Michael Massey (2B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.8	0.303 below average	good day
ARI	Nolan Arenado (3B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	-0.74	0.285 below average	projection too high
ARI	Ketel Marte (2B)	3 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0.66	0.347 elite	projection too low
ARI	Geraldo Perdomo (SS)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	-0.47	0.328 above average	—
ARI	Ildemaro Vargas (1B)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.299 below average	—
KC	Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.45	0.386 elite	—
KC	Salvador Perez (DH)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.31 average	—
ARI	Gabriel Moreno (C)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.31	0.365 elite	—
KC	Nick Loftin (3B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.295 below average	—
KC	Matthew Lugo (RF)	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.072 weak	—
KC	Vinnie Pasquantino (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.02	0.329 above average	—
KC	Isaac Collins (LF)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.296 below average	—
KC	Kyle Isbel (CF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.261 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.579	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.614	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.006	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.844	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.78-3.38	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	0.574	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_has_no_reliable_baseline)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.78-3.38	5-3	0.606	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	5-3	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_has_no_reliable_baseline)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-3	5-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-3	5-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-3	5-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-3	5-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
KC	Nick Loftin	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 2.388
ARI	Nolan Arenado	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 2.36
ARI	Gabriel Moreno	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.22
ARI	Corbin Burnes	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO -2
ARI	Brandyn Garcia	pitcher / Closer	better	predicted_SO 2
ARI	Ryan Waldschmidt	batter / LF	better	predicted_2B 1.797
KC	Bobby Witt Jr.	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.74
KC	Carter Jensen	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.51

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ARI
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=8).	ARI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Lars Nootbaar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Tommy Troy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4; Ryan Waldschmidt: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0	ARI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8).	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10).	KC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vinnie Pasquantino: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Matthew Lugo: H current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Isaac Collins: H current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	KC
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CHC@MILHIT

Predicted: MIL 4-6 (conf +0.08, lean)Actual: MIL 3-4Brier 0.212total bias +3

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias +3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.111, recent -0.254, pitcher +0.121, composite +0.624
confidence pipeline reached 0.582 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.540
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 3 (10 vs 7)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CHC	David Peterson	2 ER / 12 outs	1 ER / 13 outs	-1
MIL	Jacob Misiorowski	3 ER / 18 outs	1 ER / 19 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.089 / away×0.968; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jackson Chourio (MIL LF): 4-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 1.39]
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC CF): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Brice Turang (MIL 2B): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Tyrone Taylor (CHC DH): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) posted 1.42 ERA vs projected 4.50 (1 ER in 19 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

David Peterson (CHC) threw 13 outs, 1 ER = 2.08 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (-2.42 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 5 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 10 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jackson Chourio: 4-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.39 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.331, above average - real projection error
Brice Turang: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.336, above average - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) threw 19 outs, 1 ER = 1.42 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (-3.08 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 2 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Nico Hoerner: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - a good day, not a model error
Michael Busch: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.328, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
CHC	David Peterson (Starter)	13 / 12	2.08 / 4.5	1 / 2	6 / 7	0 / 0	3 / 1	4 / 8	venue away: 4.73 vs 6.93 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.09 (strong) · 28 prior appearances this season
CHC	Jacob Webb (Closer)	3 / 6	18 / 0 (+18.00)	2 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1
CHC	Trent Thornton (Setup Man)	2 / 3	0 / 36 (-36.00)	0 / 4	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 2
MIL	Jacob Misiorowski (Starter)	19 / 18	1.42 / 4.5 (-3.08)	1 / 3	4 / 4	0 / 0	2 / 3	9 / 10	venue home: 1.62 vs 2.39 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.97 (strong) · 26 prior appearances this season
MIL	Aaron Ashby (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1
MIL	Trevor Megill (Closer)	1 / 3	54 / 9 (+45.00)	2 / 1	3 / 2	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
MIL	Jackson Chourio (LF)	5 / 5	4 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.39	0.331 above average	projection too low
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.26	0.374 elite	bad day
MIL	Brice Turang (2B)	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.94	0.336 above average	projection too low
CHC	Tyrone Taylor (DH)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.319 average	no signal
CHC	Nico Hoerner (SS)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.323 above average	—
CHC	Alex Bregman (3B)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.32 average	—
CHC	Miguel Amaya (C)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.289 below average	—
MIL	Andrew Vaughn (1B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.335 above average	—
MIL	Cooper Pratt (SS)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.312 average	—
MIL	Garrett Mitchell (CF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.353 elite	—
CHC	Seiya Suzuki (RF)	5 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.339 above average	—
CHC	Michael Busch (1B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0.33	0.328 above average	—
CHC	Ian Happ (LF)	2 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.314 average	—
MIL	William Contreras (C)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.31	0.332 above average	—
MIL	Gary Sánchez (DH)	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 1	0.19	0.343 elite	—
CHC	Matt Shaw (2B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	-0.14	0.303 below average	—
MIL	Luis Lara (RF)	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.311 average	—
MIL	Joey Ortiz (3B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0	0.295 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.111	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.254	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.121	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.624	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.59-7	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-7	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.54	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.59-7	4-7	-0.412	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-7	5-6	-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	4-6	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	4-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	4-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	4-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIL	Andrew Vaughn	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 2.098
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.08
MIL	Jacob Misiorowski	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 2
CHC	Seiya Suzuki	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 1.937
MIL	Jackson Chourio	batter / LF	better	predicted_H 1.74
CHC	Miguel Amaya	batter / C	deboosted	predicted_BB 1.703
CHC	Ian Happ	batter / LF	worse	predicted_H 1.7
CHC	Michael Busch	batter / 1B	neutral	predicted_H 1.61

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=12; SF: current=0, sim=1).	CHC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Matt Shaw: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=9).	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11).	MIL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; William Contreras: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Gary Sánchez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Luis Lara: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Joey Ortiz: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brice Turang: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	MIL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CIN@LADHIT

Predicted: LAD 3-9 (conf +0.34, strong)Actual: LAD 2-3Brier 0.108total bias +7

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.34 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias +7
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.393, recent +0.590, pitcher +0.012, composite +2.021
confidence pipeline reached 0.672 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.672
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 7 (12 vs 5)
LAD offense over-projected by 6
Nick Lodolo (CIN) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (3 vs 6)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CIN	Nick Lodolo	6 ER / 12 outs	3 ER / 14 outs	-3
LAD	Tarik Skubal	1 ER / 18 outs	2 ER / 22 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.96 / away×0.947; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Teoscar Hernández (LAD RF): 3-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.56]
Héctor Rodríguez (CIN RF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Freddie Freeman (LAD DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Will Smith (LAD C): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
JJ Bleday (CIN LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Nick Lodolo (CIN) posted 5.79 ERA vs projected 13.50 (3 ER in 14 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (6.00 ERA there vs 4.50 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Nick Lodolo (CIN) threw 14 outs, 3 ER = 5.79 ERA against a projected 13.5 ERA (-7.71 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Teoscar Hernández: 3-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.56 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.329, above average - real projection error
Will Smith: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.378, elite - real projection error
Max Muncy: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.45 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.351, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Tarik Skubal (LAD) threw 22 outs, 2 ER = 2.45 ERA against a projected 1.5 ERA (0.95 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 5 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Tyler Stephenson: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.332, above average - real projection error
Matt McLain: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.304, average - a good day, not a model error
Eugenio Suárez: 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.29, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
CIN	Nick Lodolo (Starter)	14 / 12	5.79 / 13.5 (-7.71)	3 / 6	5 / 6	1 / 0	3 / 3	6 / 5	venue away: 6 vs 4.5 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.96 (strong) · 17 prior appearances this season
CIN	Luis Mey (Setup Man)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 2	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0
LAD	Tarik Skubal (Starter)	22 / 18	2.45 / 1.5	2 / 1	4 / 2	1 / 0	2 / 4	5 / 7	venue home: 3.5 vs 2.09 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.95 (weak) · 22 prior appearances this season
LAD	Edgardo Henriquez (Setup Man)	2 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 2	1 / 0
LAD	Tanner Scott (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
LAD	Teoscar Hernández (RF)	3 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1.56	0.329 above average	projection too low
CIN	Héctor Rodríguez (RF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-1.4	0.284 below average	projection too high
LAD	Freddie Freeman (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-1.11	0.371 elite	bad day
LAD	Will Smith (C)	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.07	0.378 elite	projection too low
CIN	JJ Bleday (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.345 elite	bad day
CIN	Sal Stewart (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.351 elite	bad day
LAD	Mookie Betts (SS)	2 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	-0.74	0.33 above average	bad day
CIN	Tyler Stephenson (DH)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.66	0.332 above average	projection too low
CIN	Jose Trevino (C)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.222 weak	—
CIN	Matt McLain (2B)	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.304 average	—
LAD	Tommy Edman (CF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.315 average	—
LAD	Alex Call (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.281 weak	—
LAD	Max Muncy (3B)	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.45	0.351 elite	—
CIN	Eugenio Suárez (3B)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.29 below average	—
CIN	Elly De La Cruz (SS)	4 / 5	2 / 2	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 2	-0.33	0.368 elite	—
LAD	Enrique Hernández (1B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.258 weak	—
CIN	Dane Myers (CF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.314 average	—
LAD	Miguel Rojas (2B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.307 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.393	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.59	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.012	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	2.021	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.61-6.32	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-8	0.672	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-9	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-9	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-9	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-9	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.61-6.32	4-6	-0.713	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	3-8	3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-8	3-9	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-9	3-9	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-9	3-9	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-9	3-9	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
LAD	Tarik Skubal	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 4
LAD	Tommy Edman	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 2.508
CIN	Dane Myers	batter / CF	deboosted	predicted_AB 2.289
LAD	Max Muncy	batter / 3B	better	predicted_H 2.23
LAD	Teoscar Hernández	batter / RF	better	predicted_H 2.075
LAD	Brock Stewart	pitcher / Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	worse	predicted_SO -2
LAD	Edgardo Henriquez	pitcher / Setup Man	worse	predicted_SO -2
LAD	Enrique Hernández	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.781

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CIN
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; HR: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=10, sim=8).	CIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: BB current=0 box=1; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Sal Stewart: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=5 box=3, H current=2 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0; Jose Trevino: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=13; 2B: current=2, sim=4; RBI: current=5, sim=9; R: current=5, sim=9; BB: current=4, sim=3).	LAD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: RBI current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Will Smith: AB current=3 box=5, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Enrique Hernández: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Alex Call: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	LAD
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CLE@BALHIT

Predicted: CLE 5-4 (conf -0.01, toss_up)Actual: CLE 9-5Brier 0.245total bias -5

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias -5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.093, recent -0.138, pitcher -0.022, composite -0.314
confidence pipeline reached 0.507 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.495
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 5 (9 vs 14)
CLE offense under-projected by 4

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CLE	Tanner Bibee	3 ER / 17 outs	5 ER / 13 outs	2
BAL	Brandon Young	5 ER / 17 outs	6 ER / 11 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.958 / away×0.98; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Petey Halpin (CLE CF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.27]
Angel Martínez (CLE RF): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Coby Mayo (BAL DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Pete Alonso (BAL 1B): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Patrick Bailey (CLE C): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]

Starter miss: Brandon Young (BAL) posted 14.73 ERA vs projected 7.94 (6 ER in 11 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Tanner Bibee (CLE) threw 13 outs, 5 ER = 10.38 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (5.62 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 10 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Pete Alonso: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.392, elite - real projection error
Jackson Holliday: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.301, below average - a good day, not a model error
Leody Taveras: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.272, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Brandon Young (BAL) threw 11 outs, 6 ER = 14.73 ERA against a projected 7.94 ERA (6.79 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 9 runs on 12 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Petey Halpin: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.27 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.282, weak - a good day, not a model error
Angel Martínez: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.302, below average - a good day, not a model error
Patrick Bailey: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
CLE	Tanner Bibee (Starter)	13 / 17	10.38 / 4.76 (+5.62)	5 / 3	6 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 2	1 / 5	venue away: 3.99 vs 4.11 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (average) · 29 prior appearances this season
CLE	Cade Smith (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0
CLE	Hunter Gaddis (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0
CLE	Tim Herrin (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1
BAL	Brandon Young (Starter)	11 / 17	14.73 / 7.94 (+6.79)	6 / 5	8 / 6	1 / 1	2 / 2	2 / 7	venue home: 3.12 vs 3.39 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (weak) · 24 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
CLE	Petey Halpin (CF)	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.27	0.282 weak	good day
CLE	Angel Martínez (RF)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1.09	0.302 below average	good day
BAL	Coby Mayo (DH)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-1.07	0.322 above average	bad day
BAL	Pete Alonso (1B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.07	0.392 elite	projection too low
CLE	Patrick Bailey (C)	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.94	0.307 average	no signal
BAL	Jackson Holliday (2B)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.78	0.301 below average	good day
BAL	Leody Taveras (RF)	4 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.272 weak	good day
BAL	Dylan Beavers (LF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.301 below average	projection too high
CLE	Travis Bazzana (2B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.62	0.299 below average	good day
BAL	Gunnar Henderson (SS)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.315 average	—
BAL	Samuel Basallo (C)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.323 above average	—
CLE	Brayan Rocchio (SS)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.46	0.291 below average	—
CLE	Jo Adell (DH)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.324 above average	—
CLE	José Ramírez (3B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.33	0.333 above average	—
BAL	Blaze Alexander (3B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.351 elite	—
CLE	Nathaniel Lowe (1B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	0.19	0.336 above average	—
CLE	Steven Kwan (LF)	5 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.02	0.322 above average	—
BAL	Colton Cowser (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0	0.319 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.093	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.138	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.022	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.314	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.11-4.73	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.11-4.73	4-5	-0.382	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	5-4	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
BAL	Leody Taveras	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H 2.294
CLE	Patrick Bailey	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.86
BAL	Blaze Alexander	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 1.66
CLE	Angel Martínez	batter / RF	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.468
CLE	Brayan Rocchio	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.437
CLE	Petey Halpin	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.421
BAL	Colton Cowser	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 1.366
CLE	José Ramírez	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.31

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BAL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=7).	BAL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jackson Holliday: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Leody Taveras: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Dylan Beavers: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Blaze Alexander: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=10).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Angel Martínez: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Travis Bazzana: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Petey Halpin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	CLE
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

COL@NYYHIT

Predicted: NYY 2-8 (conf +0.29, strong)Actual: NYY 3-5Brier 0.126total bias +2

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.29 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.565, recent +0.628, pitcher +0.067, composite +2.245
confidence pipeline reached 0.653 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.645
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

NYY offense over-projected by 3
Gabriel Hughes (COL) allowed 4 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 5)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
COL	Gabriel Hughes	5 ER / 13 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	-4
NYY	Cam Schlittler	1 ER / 19 outs	1 ER / 21 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×1.062 / away×0.995; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Mickey Moniak (COL DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Hunter Goodman (COL C): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Ben Rice (NYY DH): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Cole Carrigg (COL CF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Adael Amador (COL 2B): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Starter miss: Gabriel Hughes (COL) posted 1.80 ERA vs projected 10.38 (1 ER in 15 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (9.00 ERA there vs 4.26 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Gabriel Hughes (COL) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 10.38 ERA (-8.58 ERA error) only 11 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 3 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.295, below average - a good day, not a model error
George Lombard Jr.: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.283, weak - a good day, not a model error
Ryan McMahon: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.305, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Cam Schlittler (NYY) threw 21 outs, 1 ER = 1.29 ERA against a projected 1.42 ERA (-0.13 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 4 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 6 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Hunter Goodman: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - real projection error
Adael Amador: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.253, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
COL	Gabriel Hughes (Starter)	15 / 13	1.8 / 10.38 (-8.58)	1 / 5	4 / 7	0 / 1	0 / 2	6 / 6	venue away: 9 vs 4.26 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.06 (average) · 11 prior appearances this season
COL	Jaden Hill (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 5	0 / 10.8 (-10.80)	0 / 2	0 / 3	0 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 0
COL	Brennan Bernardino (Setup Man)	0 / 2	n/a / 0	3 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0
NYY	Cam Schlittler (Starter)	21 / 19	1.29 / 1.42	1 / 1	3 / 2	1 / 0	0 / 3	10 / 7	venue home: 3.41 vs 1.14 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 29 prior appearances this season
NYY	Brent Headrick (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1
NYY	David Bednar (Closer)	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
COL	Mickey Moniak (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-1.4	0.285 below average	projection too high
COL	Hunter Goodman (C)	4 / 4	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.325 above average	projection too low
NYY	Ben Rice (DH)	2 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-1.4	0.376 elite	bad day
COL	Cole Carrigg (CF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.11	0.32 average	no signal
COL	Adael Amador (2B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.93	0.253 weak	good day
COL	Kyle Karros (3B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.338 above average	bad day
NYY	Aaron Judge (RF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.415 elite	bad day
COL	Zac Veen (RF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.305 average	—
COL	Ezequiel Tovar (SS)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.276 weak	—
NYY	Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2B)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.295 below average	—
NYY	Austin Wells (C)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.292 below average	—
NYY	George Lombard Jr. (SS)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.283 weak	—
COL	TJ Rumfield (1B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.31	0.334 above average	—
NYY	Ryan McMahon (3B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.305 average	—
NYY	Luis García Jr. (1B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.16	0.349 elite	—
NYY	Spencer Jones (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	3 / 1	-0.14	0.327 above average	—
NYY	Cody Bellinger (LF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.02	0.341 elite	—
COL	Jake McCarthy (LF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.323 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.565	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.628	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.067	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	2.245	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.55-6.44	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-7	0.645	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	2-8	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-8	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-8	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-8	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.55-6.44	4-6	-0.89	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	3-7	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-7	2-8	2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-8	2-8	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-8	2-8	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-8	2-8	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
NYY	Austin Wells	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 2.62
NYY	Spencer Jones	batter / CF	better	predicted_AB 1.76
NYY	Ryan McMahon	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_BB 1.747
NYY	Ben Rice	batter / DH	better	predicted_H 1.58
COL	Jake McCarthy	batter / LF	worse	predicted_H -1.56
NYY	Cody Bellinger	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.351
COL	Hunter Goodman	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO -1.35
NYY	Luis García Jr.	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB 1.29

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	COL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYY
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).	COL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake McCarthy: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Zac Veen: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Karros: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=12; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=8).	NYY
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cody Bellinger: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Aaron Judge: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan McMahon: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	NYY
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

HOU@PHIHIT

Predicted: HOU 3-2 (conf -0.11, moderate)Actual: HOU 6-5Brier 0.199total bias -6

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.11 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias -6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.444, recent +0.172, pitcher -0.067, composite -0.040
confidence pipeline reached 0.591 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.446
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 6 (5 vs 11)
HOU offense under-projected by 3
PHI offense under-projected by 3
Andrew Painter (PHI) allowed 3 more ER than projected (5 vs 2)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
HOU	Hayden Wesneski	2 ER / 17 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	1
PHI	Andrew Painter	2 ER / 16 outs	5 ER / 15 outs	3

Decision internals: run factors home×0.928 / away×0.995; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Daulton Varsho (HOU CF): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.18]
Yordan Alvarez (HOU DH): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Cam Smith (HOU RF): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.73]
Christian Walker (HOU 1B): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Trea Turner (PHI SS): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]

Starter miss: Andrew Painter (PHI) posted 9.00 ERA vs projected 3.38 (5 ER in 15 outs); he is materially worse pitching home (6.28 ERA there vs 4.99 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Hayden Wesneski (HOU) threw 18 outs, 3 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 3.18 ERA (1.32 ERA error) only 7 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 8 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 9 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Trea Turner: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.294, below average - a good day, not a model error
Brandon Marsh: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.306, average - a good day, not a model error
Justin Crawford: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.281, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Andrew Painter (PHI) threw 15 outs, 5 ER = 9 ERA against a projected 3.38 ERA (5.62 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 11 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Daulton Varsho: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+2.18 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.291, below average - a good day, not a model error
Cam Smith: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.73 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.317, average - a good day, not a model error
Christian Walker: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.3, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
HOU	Hayden Wesneski (Starter)	18 / 17	4.5 / 3.18	3 / 2	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 5	venue away: 3.57 vs 2.86 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.93 (average) · 7 prior appearances this season
HOU	AJ Blubaugh (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 4	13.5 / 0 (+13.50)	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0
HOU	Bryan Abreu (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0
HOU	Josh Hader (Closer)	3 / 3	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
PHI	Andrew Painter (Starter)	15 / 16	9 / 3.38 (+5.62)	5 / 2	10 / 3	2 / 0	2 / 2	6 / 4	venue home: 6.28 vs 4.99 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.99 (average) · 21 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
HOU	Daulton Varsho (CF)	5 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	2.18	0.291 below average	good day
HOU	Yordan Alvarez (DH)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.447 elite	bad day
HOU	Cam Smith (RF)	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.73	0.317 average	no signal
HOU	Christian Walker (1B)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1.4	0.3 below average	good day
PHI	Trea Turner (SS)	4 / 5	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.294 below average	good day
PHI	Kyle Schwarber (DH)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.26	0.369 elite	bad day
HOU	Jose Altuve (2B)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.275 weak	—
HOU	Yainer Diaz (C)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.303 below average	—
HOU	Taylor Trammell (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0.47	0.286 below average	—
PHI	Bryce Harper (RF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.392 elite	—
PHI	Alec Bohm (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.322 above average	—
HOU	Jeremy Peña (SS)	5 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.325 above average	—
PHI	Brandon Marsh (LF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.306 average	—
PHI	Justin Crawford (CF)	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.281 weak	—
HOU	Isaac Paredes (3B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 0	0.02	0.319 average	—
PHI	Bryson Stott (3B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.329 above average	—
PHI	Luis Arraez (2B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.305 average	—
PHI	J.T. Realmuto (C)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.32 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.444	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.172	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.067	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.04	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.48-3.86	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-2	0.554	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-2	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-2	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-2	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-2	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.48-3.86	4-4	-0.617	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	3-2	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-2	3-2	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-2	3-2	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-2	3-2	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-2	3-2	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
HOU	Daulton Varsho	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.26
HOU	Hayden Wesneski	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
HOU	Jeremy Peña	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.8
HOU	Yainer Diaz	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.77
PHI	Brandon Marsh	batter / LF	worse	predicted_BB 1.763
PHI	Trea Turner	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 1.67
HOU	Yordan Alvarez	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO 1.241
PHI	Luis Arraez	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_H -1.23

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	HOU
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).	HOU
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Isaac Paredes: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Yainer Diaz: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Christian Walker: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=5).	PHI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kyle Schwarber: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=4 box=2, BB current=0 box=2; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Luis Arraez: H current=1 box=0; Justin Crawford: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	PHI
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

LAA@BOSMISS

Predicted: BOS 3-4 (conf +0.05, lean)Actual: LAA 6-1Brier 0.278total bias +0

Root cause: Small edge on the losing side

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.05 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.036, recent +0.646, pitcher -0.018, composite +0.873
confidence pipeline reached 0.584 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.527
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

LAA offense under-projected by 3
BOS offense over-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAA	Reid Detmers	2 ER / 19 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-2
BOS	Patrick Sandoval	3 ER / 15 outs	4 ER / 18 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.951 / away×0.968; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Travis d'Arnaud (LAA C): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.56]
Zach Neto (LAA SS): 4-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 1.39]
Wilyer Abreu (BOS RF): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Vaughn Grissom (LAA 1B): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Roman Anthony (BOS LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Reid Detmers (LAA) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 2.84 ERA (-2.84 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 2 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Patrick Sandoval (BOS) threw 18 outs, 4 ER = 6 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (0.6 ERA error) only 10 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 15 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 6 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Travis d'Arnaud: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.56 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.253, weak - a good day, not a model error
Zach Neto: 4-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.39 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.304, average - a good day, not a model error
Vaughn Grissom: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
LAA	Reid Detmers (Starter)	18 / 19	0 / 2.84	0 / 2	1 / 5	0 / 0	1 / 2	9 / 8	venue away: 3.8 vs 3.21 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.95 (average) · 28 prior appearances this season
LAA	Tayler Saucedo (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 2	0 / 27 (-27.00)	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0
BOS	Patrick Sandoval (Starter)	18 / 15	6 / 5.4	4 / 3	10 / 3	0 / 0	2 / 4	7 / 4	venue home: 4.07 vs 4.74 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.97 (weak) · 10 prior appearances this season
BOS	Greg Weissert (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
LAA	Travis d'Arnaud (C)	4 / 3	2 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1.56	0.253 weak	good day
LAA	Zach Neto (SS)	5 / 5	4 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 2	1.39	0.304 average	no signal
BOS	Wilyer Abreu (RF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.93	0.346 elite	bad day
LAA	Vaughn Grissom (1B)	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.313 average	no signal
BOS	Roman Anthony (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.359 elite	bad day
LAA	Moisés Ballesteros (DH)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.292 below average	—
LAA	Christian Moore (2B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.244 weak	—
LAA	Denzer Guzman (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.265 weak	—
BOS	Andruw Monasterio (2B)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.297 below average	—
BOS	Eli White (CF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.273 weak	—
BOS	Connor Wong (C)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.286 below average	—
LAA	Mike Trout (CF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0.31	0.374 elite	—
BOS	Caleb Durbin (3B)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.19	0.29 below average	—
BOS	Nick Sogard (1B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.17	0.321 above average	—
LAA	Jose Siri (RF)	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.305 average	—
LAA	Kyren Paris (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 3	0	0.175 weak	—
BOS	Trevor Story (SS)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.248 weak	—
BOS	Jahmai Jones (DH)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.344 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.036	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.646	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.018	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.873	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.64-3.64	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.527	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.64-3.64	5-4	0.005	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	3-4	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
LAA	Kyren Paris	batter / LF	better	predicted_SO -3
LAA	Mike Trout	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.74
BOS	Eli White	batter / CF	better	predicted_H 2.382
LAA	Denzer Guzman	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 2.016
LAA	Jose Siri	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.677
BOS	Connor Wong	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.64
BOS	Jahmai Jones	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
BOS	Trevor Story	batter / SS	worse	predicted_RBI 1.49

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BOS
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	BOS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Trevor Story: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jahmai Jones: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Andruw Monasterio: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Eli White: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Connor Wong: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	BOS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=30; H: current=6, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=12, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	LAA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jose Siri: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Kyren Paris: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=3 box=0; Mike Trout: AB current=5 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Christian Moore: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Zach Neto: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	LAA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

MIN@DETMISS

Predicted: DET 5-6 (conf +0.08, lean)Actual: MIN 3-2Brier 0.292total bias +6

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias +6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.310, recent -0.294, pitcher +0.023, composite +0.329
confidence pipeline reached 0.583 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.540
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 6 (11 vs 5)
DET offense over-projected by 4
Dean Kremer (MIN) allowed 4 fewer ER than projected (2 vs 6)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIN	Dean Kremer	6 ER / 14 outs	2 ER / 15 outs	-4
DET	Drew Anderson	4 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 16 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.044 / away×1.021; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Riley Greene (DET DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Kaelen Culpepper (MIN SS): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Max Clark (DET CF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Kevin McGonigle (DET SS): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.76]

Starter miss: Dean Kremer (MIN) posted 3.60 ERA vs projected 11.57 (2 ER in 15 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (6.53 ERA there vs 5.20 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Dean Kremer (MIN) threw 15 outs, 2 ER = 3.6 ERA against a projected 11.57 ERA (-7.97 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 12 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Kevin McGonigle: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.76 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.351, elite - real projection error
Eduardo Valencia: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.317, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Drew Anderson (DET) threw 16 outs, 3 ER = 5.06 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-2.14 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Ryan Jeffers: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.361, elite - a good day, not a model error
Kody Clemens: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.338, above average - a good day, not a model error
Luke Keaschall: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
MIN	Dean Kremer (Starter)	15 / 14	3.6 / 11.57 (-7.97)	2 / 6	5 / 8	1 / 2	1 / 4	3 / 5	venue away: 6.53 vs 5.2 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.04 (average) · 13 prior appearances this season
MIN	A.J. Minter (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1
MIN	Jeff Hoffman (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0
MIN	Andrew Morris (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
DET	Drew Anderson (Starter)	16 / 15	5.06 / 7.2	3 / 4	4 / 6	1 / 1	3 / 2	4 / 4	venue home: 1.96 vs 2.65 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (average) · 46 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
DET	Riley Greene (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.372 elite	bad day
MIN	Kaelen Culpepper (SS)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.314 average	no signal
DET	Max Clark (CF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.313 average	no signal
DET	Kevin McGonigle (SS)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.76	0.351 elite	projection too low
MIN	Josh Bell (DH)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.331 above average	—
MIN	Ryan Jeffers (C)	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.47	0.361 elite	—
MIN	Royce Lewis (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.313 average	—
MIN	Trevor Larnach (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.325 above average	—
DET	Colt Keith (1B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.334 above average	—
DET	Brett Callahan (LF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.31 average	—
DET	Hao-Yu Lee (3B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.299 below average	—
DET	Eduardo Valencia (C)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.317 average	—
MIN	Kody Clemens (2B)	3 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.338 above average	—
MIN	Walker Jenkins (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.274 weak	—
MIN	Luke Keaschall (RF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0.31	0.316 average	—
MIN	Brooks Lee (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.31	0.277 weak	—
DET	Gleyber Torres (2B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.325 above average	—
DET	Zach McKinstry (RF)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.282 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.31	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.294	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.023	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.329	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.15-5.48	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.54	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.15-5.48	3-5	-0.329	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-5	5-6	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	5-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	5-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	5-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	5-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
DET	Eduardo Valencia	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 3.79
MIN	Kody Clemens	batter / 2B	better	predicted_H 1.99
DET	Brett Callahan	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.974
MIN	Royce Lewis	batter / 1B	better	predicted_2B 1.798
MIN	Luke Keaschall	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 1.53
DET	Kevin McGonigle	batter / SS	better	predicted_AB -1.51
MIN	Josh Bell	batter / DH	worse	predicted_RBI 1.4
MIN	Trevor Larnach	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.322

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	DET
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=9).	DET
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Gleyber Torres: AB current=4 box=3; Hao-Yu Lee: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Eduardo Valencia: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Max Clark: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	DET
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=8).	MIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Trevor Larnach: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	MIN
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

NYM@MIAHIT

Predicted: NYM 6-5 (conf -0.07, lean)Actual: NYM 7-5Brier 0.217total bias -1

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.07 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 1; total bias -1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.157, recent -0.270, pitcher +0.052, composite -0.046
confidence pipeline reached 0.547 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.466
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 9 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Sandy Alcantara (MIA) allowed 5 more ER than projected (7 vs 2)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
NYM	Sean Manaea	4 ER / 19 outs	4 ER / 15 outs	0
MIA	Sandy Alcantara	2 ER / 19 outs	7 ER / 13 outs	5

Decision internals: run factors home×1.03 / away×0.978; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Heriberto Hernández (MIA LF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Jakob Marsee (MIA CF): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.92]
Juan Soto (NYM LF): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Deyvison De Los Santos (MIA 1B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Brian Navarreto (MIA C): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]

Starter miss: Sandy Alcantara (MIA) posted 14.54 ERA vs projected 2.84 (7 ER in 13 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Sean Manaea (NYM) threw 15 outs, 4 ER = 7.2 ERA against a projected 5.68 ERA (1.52 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jakob Marsee: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.92 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error
Brian Navarreto: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.167, weak - a good day, not a model error
Jared Serna: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.76 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.294, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Sandy Alcantara (MIA) threw 13 outs, 7 ER = 14.54 ERA against a projected 2.84 ERA (11.7 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 2 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 8 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Juan Soto: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.416, elite - real projection error
Brett Baty: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.31, average - a good day, not a model error
Francisco Lindor: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.334, above average - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
NYM	Sean Manaea (Starter)	15 / 19	7.2 / 5.68	4 / 4	5 / 6	0 / 3	0 / 0	4 / 2	venue away: 4.57 vs 4.13 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.03 (average) · 29 prior appearances this season
NYM	Kodai Senga (Closer)	3 / 3	9 / 9	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1
NYM	Nathan Lavender (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0
MIA	Sandy Alcantara (Starter)	13 / 19	14.54 / 2.84 (+11.70)	7 / 2	7 / 4	3 / 0	4 / 3	1 / 6	venue home: 2.58 vs 4.32 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 30 prior appearances this season
MIA	Tyler Zuber (Setup Man)	2 / 3	0 / 27 (-27.00)	0 / 3	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
MIA	Heriberto Hernández (LF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.26	0.352 elite	bad day
MIA	Jakob Marsee (CF)	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.92	0.307 average	no signal
NYM	Juan Soto (LF)	4 / 5	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0.78	0.416 elite	projection too low
MIA	Deyvison De Los Santos (1B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.236 weak	projection too high
MIA	Brian Navarreto (C)	2 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.167 weak	good day
MIA	Jared Serna (2B)	3 / 3	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.76	0.294 below average	good day
NYM	Brett Baty (3B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.62	0.31 average	no signal
NYM	Francisco Lindor (SS)	4 / 6	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.6	0.334 above average	projection too low
NYM	Marcus Semien (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.306 average	—
MIA	Esteury Ruiz (RF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.292 below average	—
NYM	Bo Bichette (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.327 above average	—
NYM	Jared Young (1B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.309 average	—
MIA	Javier Sanoja (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.31	0.29 below average	—
NYM	Carson Benge (RF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	2 / 1	0.19	0.335 above average	—
NYM	A.J. Ewing (CF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.02	0.321 above average	—
NYM	Francisco Alvarez (C)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.325 above average	—
MIA	Agustín Ramírez (DH)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.275 weak	—
MIA	Otto Lopez (SS)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.323 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.157	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.27	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.052	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.046	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.04-3.95	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.534	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.04-3.95	5-4	-0.083	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	6-5	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	6-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
NYM	Juan Soto	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 3.37
NYM	Jared Young	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 2.33
MIA	Esteury Ruiz	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.91
NYM	Francisco Lindor	batter / SS	better	predicted_H 1.79
MIA	Deyvison De Los Santos	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
MIA	Heriberto Hernández	batter / LF	worse	predicted_RBI 1.26
NYM	Francisco Alvarez	batter / C	worse	predicted_H 1.18
NYM	Carson Benge	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 1.164

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=10; HR: current=1, sim=2).	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=5).	MIA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Heriberto Hernández: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Deyvison De Los Santos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Agustín Ramírez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Jared Serna: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Esteury Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brian Navarreto: SO current=1 box=0	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=6).	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=10; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	NYM
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bo Bichette: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: H current=1 box=4, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jared Young: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Francisco Lindor: AB current=6 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	NYM
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

PIT@CHWMISS

Predicted: CHW 3-4 (conf +0.04, toss_up)Actual: PIT 9-3Brier 0.27total bias -5

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.04 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias -5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.129, recent -0.020, pitcher +0.023, composite +0.297
confidence pipeline reached 0.523 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.519
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 5 (7 vs 12)
PIT offense under-projected by 6
Sean Burke (CHW) allowed 4 more ER than projected (7 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
PIT	Bubba Chandler	3 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	-1
CHW	Sean Burke	3 ER / 17 outs	7 ER / 4 outs	4

Decision internals: run factors home×1.007 / away×0.984; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Rafael Flores Jr. (PIT C): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Kyle Teel (CHW C): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Munetaka Murakami (CHW 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Andrew Benintendi (CHW DH): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.56]
Konnor Griffin (PIT SS): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Bubba Chandler (PIT) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (-2.4 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Kyle Teel: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.295, below average - a good day, not a model error
Andrew Benintendi: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.56 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.311, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Sean Burke (CHW) at a projected 4.76 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 9 runs on 18 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Rafael Flores Jr.: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.339, above average - real projection error
Konnor Griffin: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.297, below average - a good day, not a model error
Spencer Horwitz: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 3 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.311, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
PIT	Bubba Chandler (Starter)	18 / 15	3 / 5.4	2 / 3	4 / 9	1 / 0	0 / 1	8 / 4	venue away: 4.39 vs 4.31 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
PIT	Rafael Flores Jr. (C)	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.87	0.339 above average	projection too low
CHW	Kyle Teel (C)	3 / 4	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.87	0.295 below average	good day
CHW	Munetaka Murakami (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	4 / 2	-1.73	0.347 elite	bad day
CHW	Andrew Benintendi (DH)	4 / 3	2 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.56	0.311 average	no signal
PIT	Konnor Griffin (SS)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.11	0.297 below average	good day
PIT	Spencer Horwitz (1B)	5 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.311 average	no signal
PIT	Oneil Cruz (CF)	5 / 5	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.92	0.35 elite	projection too low
CHW	Miguel Vargas (3B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.385 elite	bad day
CHW	Chase Meidroth (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.293 below average	projection too high
PIT	Jake Mangum (LF)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.283 weak	good day
CHW	Tristan Peters (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.78	0.321 above average	bad day
CHW	Colson Montgomery (SS)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.306 average	—
PIT	Brandon Lowe (2B)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.46	0.323 above average	—
PIT	Bryan Reynolds (DH)	4 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.45	0.36 elite	—
CHW	Braden Montgomery (RF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.329 above average	—
PIT	Esmerlyn Valdez (RF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.31	0.328 above average	—
PIT	Jacob Gonzalez (3B)	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.31	0.309 average	—
CHW	Sam Antonacci (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.31	0.341 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.129	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.02	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.023	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.297	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.2-4.87	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.519	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.2-4.87	4-5	0.329	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	3-4	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CHW	Andrew Benintendi	batter / DH	worse	predicted_RBI 2.63
CHW	Colson Montgomery	batter / SS	deboosted	predicted_H 2.2
CHW	Sean Burke	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
PIT	Brandon Lowe	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB -1.64
PIT	Esmerlyn Valdez	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO -1.515
CHW	Miguel Vargas	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.4
PIT	Spencer Horwitz	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.366
CHW	Kyle Teel	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO -1.364

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHW
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PIT
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=7).	CHW
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Tristan Peters: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Teel: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=2; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=6).	PIT
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Esmerlyn Valdez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Spencer Horwitz: SO current=1 box=2; Jacob Gonzalez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	PIT
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

STL@SFMISS

Predicted: STL 6-5 (conf -0.05, lean)Actual: SF 1-2Brier 0.277total bias +8

Root cause: Run environment far lower than projected (over-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.05 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 8; total bias +8
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.391, recent +0.282, pitcher -0.037, composite -0.406
confidence pipeline reached 0.573 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.474
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 8 (11 vs 3)
STL offense over-projected by 5
SF offense over-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
STL	Quinn Mathews	4 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	-2
SF	Landen Roupp	2 ER / 17 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×0.977 / away×1.014; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Rafael Devers (SF 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Christian Koss (SF SS): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Iván Herrera (STL DH): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Masyn Winn (STL SS): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Alec Burleson (STL 1B): 1-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.99]

Starter miss: Quinn Mathews (STL) posted 3.00 ERA vs projected 7.20 (2 ER in 18 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Quinn Mathews (STL) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-4.2 ERA error) only 5 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 6 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Christian Koss: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.243, weak - a good day, not a model error
Grant McCray: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.311, average - a good day, not a model error
Bryce Eldridge: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.356, elite - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Landen Roupp (SF) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 3.18 ERA (-3.18 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 2 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Alec Burleson: 1-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.99 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.374, elite - real projection error
Bryan Torres: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.302, below average - a good day, not a model error
Nathan Church: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.281, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
STL	Quinn Mathews (Starter)	18 / 15	3 / 7.2 (-4.20)	2 / 4	5 / 6	2 / 0	2 / 4	4 / 4	venue away: 5.21 vs 1.59 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (weak) · 5 prior appearances this season
SF	Landen Roupp (Starter)	18 / 17	0 / 3.18 (-3.18)	0 / 2	2 / 5	0 / 1	4 / 3	2 / 6	venue home: 4.04 vs 4.28 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season
SF	Carson Seymour (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
SF	Rafael Devers (1B)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.342 elite	bad day
SF	Christian Koss (SS)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.243 weak	good day
STL	Iván Herrera (DH)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.26	0.333 above average	bad day
STL	Masyn Winn (SS)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.299 below average	projection too high
STL	Alec Burleson (1B)	1 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 0	0 / 1	0.99	0.374 elite	projection too low
SF	Grant McCray (RF)	2 / 4	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.311 average	no signal
STL	Jordan Walker (RF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.347 elite	bad day
SF	Bryce Eldridge (DH)	3 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0.62	0.356 elite	projection too low
STL	Leonardo Bernal (C)	3 / 6	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.345 elite	—
STL	Nolan Gorman (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.279 weak	—
SF	Jonah Cox (CF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.262 weak	—
SF	Andrew Knizner (C)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.263 weak	—
STL	Bryan Torres (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.302 below average	—
STL	Nathan Church (CF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.281 weak	—
SF	Turner Hill (LF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.337 above average	—
SF	Osleivis Basabe (2B)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.278 weak	—
STL	Thomas Saggese (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.309 average	—
SF	Shay Whitcomb (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.246 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.391	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.282	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.037	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.406	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.16-4.49	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.526	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.16-4.49	4-4	0.331	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	6-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	6-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SF	Andrew Knizner	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.83
STL	Thomas Saggese	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 1.657
STL	Nathan Church	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 1.61
STL	Bryan Torres	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB 1.5
STL	Jordan Walker	batter / RF	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.5
SF	Jonah Cox	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
SF	Shay Whitcomb	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 1.462
SF	Bryce Eldridge	batter / DH	worse	predicted_BB 1.455

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SF
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	STL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6).	SF
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Osleivis Basabe: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Turner Hill: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Grant McCray: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Koss: R current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Rafael Devers: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	SF
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=36; 2B: current=2, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9).	STL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=6 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Gorman: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Masyn Winn: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	STL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TB@ATLHIT

Predicted: TB 6-5 (conf -0.04, lean)Actual: TB 7-1Brier 0.229total bias +3

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.04 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias +3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.328, recent +0.024, pitcher +0.033, composite +0.080
confidence pipeline reached 0.545 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.478
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 3 (11 vs 8)
ATL offense over-projected by 4

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TB	Freddy Peralta	3 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	-2
ATL	AJ Smith-Shawver	5 ER / 13 outs	4 ER / 10 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.032 / away×0.999; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Richie Palacios (TB 2B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.73]
Liam Hicks (TB C): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Matt Olson (ATL 1B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Victor Mesa Jr. (TB RF): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Michael Harris II (ATL CF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: Freddy Peralta (TB) posted 1.50 ERA vs projected 4.76 (1 ER in 18 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (6.19 ERA there vs 3.89 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Freddy Peralta (TB) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (-3.26 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) threw 10 outs, 4 ER = 10.8 ERA against a projected 10.38 ERA (0.42 ERA error) only 4 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 11 hits and 4 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Richie Palacios: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.73 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.304, average - a good day, not a model error
Liam Hicks: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error
Victor Mesa Jr.: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.309, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
TB	Freddy Peralta (Starter)	18 / 17	1.5 / 4.76 (-3.26)	1 / 3	5 / 8	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 4	venue away: 6.19 vs 3.89 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.03 (strong) · 28 prior appearances this season
TB	Bryan Baker (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1
TB	Kevin Kelly (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
ATL	AJ Smith-Shawver (Starter)	10 / 13	10.8 / 10.38	4 / 5	5 / 6	2 / 1	2 / 1	3 / 0	venue home: 5.4 vs 7.82 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (average) · thin sample: 4 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
TB	Richie Palacios (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1.73	0.304 average	no signal
TB	Liam Hicks (C)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1.26	0.316 average	no signal
ATL	Matt Olson (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.26	0.353 elite	bad day
TB	Victor Mesa Jr. (RF)	5 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.309 average	no signal
ATL	Michael Harris II (CF)	4 / 6	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.341 elite	bad day
TB	Yandy Díaz (DH)	5 / 5	2 / 2	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.6	0.358 elite	projection too low
TB	Junior Caminero (3B)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.47	0.362 elite	—
TB	Jonny DeLuca (CF)	5 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.268 weak	—
TB	Jorge Mateo (SS)	5 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	0.47	0.302 below average	—
ATL	Sean Murphy (C)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.263 weak	—
ATL	Ozzie Albies (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.45	0.283 weak	—
ATL	Drake Baldwin (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.363 elite	—
ATL	Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.363 elite	—
TB	Jonathan Aranda (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.35 elite	—
TB	Chandler Simpson (LF)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.261 weak	—
ATL	Mauricio Dubón (SS)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.302 below average	—
ATL	Austin Riley (3B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.3 below average	—
ATL	Mike Yastrzemski (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.309 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.328	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.024	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.033	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.08	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.7-3.56	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.522	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.7-3.56	5-4	-0.147	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	6-5	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	6-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TB	Victor Mesa Jr.	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 2.57
TB	Jonathan Aranda	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.978
ATL	Drake Baldwin	batter / DH	better	predicted_H 1.917
TB	Yandy Díaz	batter / DH	worse	predicted_H -1.75
ATL	Austin Riley	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 1.43
ATL	Sean Murphy	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.4
TB	Jorge Mateo	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB 1.375
ATL	Mike Yastrzemski	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.336

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ATL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	ATL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=2; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=6 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Austin Riley: RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	ATL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=3).	TB
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yandy Díaz: H current=2 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Chandler Simpson: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jorge Mateo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	TB
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TEX@SEAHIT

Predicted: TEX 5-4 (conf -0.05, lean)Actual: TEX 10-5Brier 0.226total bias -6

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.05 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias -6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.303, recent -0.510, pitcher -0.054, composite -0.592
confidence pipeline reached 0.534 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.475
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 6 (9 vs 15)
TEX offense under-projected by 5
Cal Quantrill (TEX) allowed 3 more ER than projected (3 vs 0)
Bryce Miller (SEA) allowed 3 more ER than projected (4 vs 1)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TEX	Cal Quantrill	0 ER / 17 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	3
SEA	Bryce Miller	1 ER / 17 outs	4 ER / 11 outs	3

Decision internals: run factors home×0.928 / away×0.981; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Danny Jansen (TEX C): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Brandon Nimmo (TEX RF): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Cal Raleigh (SEA C): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.95]
Evan Carter (TEX CF): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Nicky Lopez (TEX 2B): 3-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]

Starter miss: Bryce Miller (SEA) posted 9.82 ERA vs projected 1.59 (4 ER in 11 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Cal Quantrill (TEX) threw 18 outs, 3 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (4.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 9 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Cole Young: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error
Lazaro Montes: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.252, weak - a good day, not a model error
Dominic Canzone: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.355, elite - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Bryce Miller (SEA) threw 11 outs, 4 ER = 9.82 ERA against a projected 1.59 ERA (8.23 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 5 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 10 runs on 9 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (6 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Danny Jansen: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.25, weak - a good day, not a model error
Evan Carter: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.278, weak - a good day, not a model error
Nicky Lopez: 3-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.253, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
TEX	Cal Quantrill (Starter)	18 / 17	4.5 / 0 (+4.50)	3 / 0	5 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	4 / 6	venue away: 4.1 vs 0.97 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 29 prior appearances this season
TEX	Robert Garcia (Reliever)	3 / 0	0 / n/a	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 2
SEA	Bryce Miller (Starter)	11 / 17	9.82 / 1.59 (+8.23)	4 / 1	4 / 2	1 / 0	3 / 2	6 / 6	venue home: 3.14 vs 4.8 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 18 prior appearances this season
SEA	Eduard Bazardo (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	1 / 3	108 / 0 (+108.00)	4 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 3
SEA	José A. Ferrer (Setup Man)	2 / 4	13.5 / 20.25 (-6.75)	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 2	1 / 0	2 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
TEX	Danny Jansen (C)	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	4 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.87	0.25 weak	good day
TEX	Brandon Nimmo (RF)	5 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	4 / 1	-1.11	0.353 elite	bad day
SEA	Cal Raleigh (C)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.95	0.316 average	no signal
TEX	Evan Carter (CF)	5 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.94	0.278 weak	good day
TEX	Nicky Lopez (2B)	3 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.94	0.253 weak	good day
SEA	Cole Young (2B)	4 / 4	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.316 average	no signal
TEX	Wyatt Langford (LF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.93	0.314 average	no signal
SEA	Lazaro Montes (DH)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.252 weak	good day
SEA	J.P. Crawford (SS)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.325 above average	bad day
SEA	Dominic Canzone (RF)	5 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.78	0.355 elite	projection too low
TEX	Joc Pederson (DH)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.343 elite	—
SEA	Julio Rodríguez (CF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.335 above average	—
TEX	Jake Burger (1B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 0	3 / 1	0.19	0.317 average	—
TEX	Ezequiel Duran (3B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	3 / 1	-0.14	0.307 average	—
SEA	Randy Arozarena (LF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.02	0.348 elite	—
SEA	Brock Rodden (3B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.02	0.231 weak	—
TEX	Corey Seager (SS)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.35 elite	—
SEA	Josh Naylor (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.314 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.303	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.51	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.054	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.592	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.56-4.72	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.525	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.56-4.72	4-5	0.16	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	5-4	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SEA	Julio Rodríguez	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 2.42
TEX	Nicky Lopez	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 2.325
SEA	Lazaro Montes	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 2.2
TEX	Joc Pederson	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 2.18
TEX	Evan Carter	batter / CF	boosted	predicted_SO 2.18
TEX	Robert Garcia	pitcher / Reliever	better	predicted_SO 2
TEX	Danny Jansen	batter / C	neutral	predicted_AB 1.94
SEA	Dominic Canzone	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 1.786

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SEA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=6).	SEA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=42; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=10).	SEA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=6, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Lazaro Montes: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brock Rodden: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; J.P. Crawford: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	SEA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=42; H: current=7, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=13).	TEX
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Joc Pederson: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Evan Carter: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=5, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	TEX
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TOR@OAKHIT

Predicted: TOR 5-4 (conf -0.12, moderate)Actual: TOR 4-2Brier 0.194total bias +3

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias +3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.951, recent -0.727, pitcher -0.018, composite -0.924
confidence pipeline reached 0.617 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.440
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 3 (9 vs 6)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TOR	José Soriano	1 ER / 17 outs	2 ER / 21 outs	1
OAK	Jack Perkins	5 ER / 12 outs	4 ER / 15 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.951 / away×0.968; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Lawrence Butler (OAK RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Donovan Walton (OAK 2B): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.54]
Josh Smith (TOR LF): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Carlos Cortes (OAK LF): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Ernie Clement (TOR 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

José Soriano (TOR) threw 21 outs, 2 ER = 2.57 ERA against a projected 1.59 ERA (0.98 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 6 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Donovan Walton: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.54 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.332, above average - real projection error
Carlos Cortes: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.306, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Jack Perkins (OAK) at a projected 11.25 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 11 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Josh Smith: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.284, below average - a good day, not a model error
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.332, above average - a good day, not a model error
Andrés Giménez: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.272, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
TOR	José Soriano (Starter)	21 / 17	2.57 / 1.59	2 / 1	6 / 4	2 / 0	1 / 2	3 / 6	venue away: 3.45 vs 3.61 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.95 (weak) · 28 prior appearances this season
TOR	Spencer Miles (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
OAK	Lawrence Butler (RF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.319 average	no signal
OAK	Donovan Walton (2B)	3 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.54	0.332 above average	projection too low
TOR	Josh Smith (LF)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.07	0.284 below average	good day
OAK	Carlos Cortes (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.93	0.306 average	no signal
TOR	Ernie Clement (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.78	0.264 weak	projection too high
OAK	Alika Williams (SS)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.241 weak	projection too high
OAK	Jonah Heim (C)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.291 below average	projection too high
TOR	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.47	0.332 above average	—
OAK	Tommy White (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.298 below average	—
TOR	Brett Bateman (CF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.299 below average	—
TOR	Andrés Giménez (SS)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.272 weak	—
TOR	Kazuma Okamoto (3B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.323 above average	—
OAK	Henry Bolte (CF)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.14	0.317 average	—
OAK	Zack Gelof (3B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.312 average	—
TOR	Nathan Lukes (RF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.29 below average	—
TOR	Alejandro Kirk (C)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.304 average	—
TOR	Jesús Sánchez (DH)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.324 above average	—
OAK	Jeff McNeil (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.305 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.951	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.727	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.018	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.924	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.35-4.16	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.35-4.16	5-4	-0.188	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	5-4	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TOR	Alejandro Kirk	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.2
OAK	Carlos Cortes	batter / LF	boosted	predicted_2B 1.858
TOR	Josh Smith	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 1.77
OAK	Jeff McNeil	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 1.651
TOR	Andrés Giménez	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 1.61
OAK	Donovan Walton	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.258
TOR	Jesús Sánchez	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.24
TOR	Kazuma Okamoto	batter / 3B	better	predicted_SO -1.217

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	OAK
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).	OAK
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2; Tommy White: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: SO current=1 box=2; Jonah Heim: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=6, sim=3; SF: current=0, sim=1).	TOR
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nathan Lukes: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Alejandro Kirk: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Brett Bateman: AB current=5 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	TOR
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

WAS@SDHIT

Predicted: SD 4-5 (conf +0.04, lean)Actual: SD 4-5Brier 0.229total bias +0

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.04 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 0; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.041, recent -0.088, pitcher +0.024, composite +0.234
confidence pipeline reached 0.529 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.521
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Casey Mize (SD) allowed 3 more ER than projected (3 vs 0)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
WAS	Riley Cornelio	2 ER / 11 outs	0 ER / 9 outs	-2
SD	Casey Mize	0 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 17 outs	3

Decision internals: run factors home×1 / away×0.976; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Yohandy Morales (WAS 1B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
James Wood (WAS RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
CJ Abrams (WAS SS): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Dylan Crews (WAS CF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Freddy Fermin (SD C): 0-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.66]

Starter miss: Riley Cornelio (WAS) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 4.91 (0 ER in 9 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Riley Cornelio (WAS) threw 9 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 4.91 ERA (-4.91 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 6 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Freddy Fermin: 0-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.273, weak - a good day, not a model error
Ty France: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.331, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Casey Mize (SD) threw 17 outs, 3 ER = 4.76 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (4.76 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 5 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Yohandy Morales: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.364, elite - real projection error
Dylan Crews: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.31, average - a good day, not a model error
Abimelec Ortiz: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
WAS	Riley Cornelio (Starter)	9 / 11	0 / 4.91 (-4.91)	0 / 2	0 / 5	0 / 2	0 / 0	4 / 2	opp run factor 1 (average) · 12 prior appearances this season
WAS	Erik Tolman (Setup Man)	3 / 4	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1
WAS	Clayton Beeter (Closer)	3 / 5	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
SD	Casey Mize (Starter)	17 / 15	4.76 / 0 (+4.76)	3 / 0	4 / 2	1 / 0	1 / 3	7 / 4	venue home: 2.98 vs 4.25 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (strong) · 22 prior appearances this season
SD	Adrian Morejon (Setup Man)	3 / 5	0 / 10.8 (-10.80)	0 / 2	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2
SD	Yuki Matsui (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 1	13.5 / 0 (+13.50)	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
WAS	Yohandy Morales (1B)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1.4	0.364 elite	projection too low
WAS	James Wood (RF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.11	0.419 elite	bad day
WAS	CJ Abrams (SS)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-1.07	0.328 above average	bad day
WAS	Dylan Crews (CF)	4 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.31 average	no signal
SD	Freddy Fermin (C)	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0.66	0.273 weak	good day
WAS	Daylen Lile (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.329 above average	—
SD	Ty France (1B)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.331 above average	—
SD	Dustin Harris (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.315 average	—
SD	Jackson Merrill (CF)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.341 elite	—
SD	Xander Bogaerts (SS)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	-0.47	0.321 above average	—
SD	Manny Machado (3B)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.46	0.338 above average	—
SD	Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.45	0.375 elite	—
WAS	Harry Ford (C)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.285 below average	—
WAS	Abimelec Ortiz (DH)	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.31	0.292 below average	—
WAS	Brady House (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.334 above average	—
SD	Luis Campusano (DH)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.344 elite	—
WAS	Jorbit Vivas (2B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.02	0.3 below average	—
SD	Jake Cronenworth (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.27 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.041	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.088	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.024	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.234	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.98-4.79	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.521	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.98-4.79	4-5	0.185	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SD	Xander Bogaerts	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 2.67
SD	Dustin Harris	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 2.217
SD	Jake Cronenworth	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 2.099
WAS	Jack Sinclair	pitcher / Reliever	worse	predicted_ER 2
WAS	Abimelec Ortiz	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.848
WAS	Riley Cornelio	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_IP -1.8
WAS	Yohandy Morales	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB 1.5
WAS	Jorbit Vivas	batter / 2B	better	predicted_AB 1.333

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SD
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=39; H: current=7, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	SD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ty France: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=3; Luis Campusano: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Dustin Harris: AB current=3 box=5, SO current=0 box=2; Jackson Merrill: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Freddy Fermin: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0	SD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (HR: current=3, sim=4).	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; 2B: current=2, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).	WAS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Abimelec Ortiz: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Dylan Crews: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; James Wood: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brady House: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Yohandy Morales: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; CJ Abrams: AB current=5 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	WAS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, and exactly which games it would help versus hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

Day over day: did it improve or worsen

Compared against packet 20260907. Last recorded change: v4.26.0 (20260906) The nightly self-improvement cycle runs at 05:00 America/New_York instead of 02:00.

Metric	Prior	Current	Δ	Result
brier_score	0.2572	0.2542	-0.003074	improved
accuracy	0.5333	0.55	+0.0167	improved
team_run_mae	2.5958	2.5792	-0.0166	improved
total_run_mae	3.675	3.8917	+0.2167	regressed
calibration_error	0.09	0.0641	-0.0259	improved
starter_er_mae	1.9958	2.0207	+0.0249	regressed
starter_outs_mae	3.0586	3.0083	-0.0503	improved

Deep slate report — 20260908

Process, end to end

Slate summary

What drove the losses

Source coverage receipt

High-level causal issue register

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Probability lineage and calibration

Score distribution and margin compression

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

ARI@KCHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CHC@MILHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CIN@LADHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CLE@BALHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

COL@NYYHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

HOU@PHIHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

LAA@BOSMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIN@DETMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

NYM@MIAHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

PIT@CHWMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)