Deep slate report 20260904

Which reports actually fed the diagnosis. A source shown as missing was not silently assumed.

High-level causal issue register

Source	Status	Evidence supplied	Path	Bytes
prediction review	loaded	official outcomes and scoring errors	/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260904.json	n/a
forensic deep audit	loaded	probability, provenance, starter and decision contracts	/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260904.json	n/a
continuous learning	loaded	pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage	/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260904.json	n/a
game artifacts	loaded	per-game model trace and structural audit source	/app/output/games	n/a

Deterministic findings across data integrity, model validation, calibration, score distribution, pipeline stages, simulation, and coverage. Critical is reserved for broken evidence or an unexplained contract violation; high marks material model/process risk. Each row pairs the action to take (Do this) with the wrong conclusion to avoid (Don't conclude).

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

A finding that has repeated at or beyond the escalation streak is no longer single-slate noise. It carries its target registered lever and an action-oriented guardrail.

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Every stored stage is scored against the same official finals. A later recovery remains visible; it does not erase an unstable intermediate flip.

Probability lineage and calibration

All columns are pick-side probabilities, so away favorites are not accidentally compared using home-side semantics.

Score distribution and margin compression

Narrow predicted margins next to wide actual margins is the signature the score-variance tail is too tight.

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (16)

Severity	Domain	Finding and evidence	Affected	Action & guardrail
CRITICAL	probability_lineage	Published probability differs materially without a recorded transformation 2 game(s) have an unexplained ≥2pp calibrated-to-published delta	ARI@HOU, SF@NYM	Do thisBlock any promotion until the missing probability transformation is recorded and reconciled. Don't concludeDo not assume the probability governor was bypassed until you have traced the pick-side math.
HIGH	model_validation	Validated run models explain very little holdout variance home/away/total R² = 0.0187/0.0264/0.0260	ARI@HOU, ATL@PHI, BOS@BAL, CHC@MIA, DET@CLE, DET@CLE, LAA@PIT, MIL@CIN, MIN@CHW, NYY@SD, OAK@SEA, SF@NYM, STL@COL, TB@TEX, TOR@KC, WAS@LAD	Do thisTreat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails. Don't concludeA small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.
INFO	coverage	Every settled game received structural QA 16/16 games structurally audited	ARI@HOU, ATL@PHI, BOS@BAL, CHC@MIA, DET@CLE, DET@CLE, LAA@PIT, MIL@CIN, MIN@CHW, NYY@SD, OAK@SEA, SF@NYM, STL@COL, TB@TEX, TOR@KC, WAS@LAD	Do thisKeep the per-game audit receipt in every report. Don't concludeFull audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.
INFO	simulation	Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate flip candidates 0; published flips 0	ARI@HOU, ATL@PHI, BOS@BAL, CHC@MIA, DET@CLE, DET@CLE, LAA@PIT, MIL@CIN, MIN@CHW, NYY@SD, OAK@SEA, SF@NYM, STL@COL, TB@TEX, TOR@KC, WAS@LAD	Do thisMeasure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping. Don't concludeZero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Finding	Persistence	Target lever(s)	Direction	Guardrail
simulation_inert_on_slate	8 consecutive · 8 in window	simulation.allow_score	confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping	simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 8 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
weak_run_model_signal	8 consecutive · 8 in window	training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate	investigate features/target via isolated training backtest (manual)	weak_run_model_signal has persisted 8 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Finding	Consecutive slates	Incidence	Present now	Fix type
high_raw_probability_cluster	0	2/8	no	param
pipeline_winner_instability	0	3/8	no	code/diagnostic
score_margin_compression	0	3/8	no	param
simulation_inert_on_slate	8	8/8	yes	code/diagnostic
single_slate_calibration_instability	0	5/8	no	param
weak_run_model_signal	8	8/8	yes	code/diagnostic

Metric	Direction	Series (old → new)
winner_accuracy	improving	[0.4667, 0.9412, 0.5, 0.6667, 0.4667, 0.3333, 0.5556, 0.625]
weighted_calibration_error	improving	[0.2179, 0.3961, 0.0693, 0.1661, 0.2476, 0.21, 0.1474, 0.1316]
margin_bias	improving	[-1.333, -1.882, -2.786, -3.5, -2.533, -3.067, -1.778, -0.688]
team_run_error_on_losses	flat	[5.0, 3.0, 7.0, 8.25, 7.125, 6.4, 6.75, 6.0]

Stage	Winner hits	Accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
historical_ml	10/16	62.5%	2.446	4.263	2.22
variance_applied	8/16	50%	2.469	4.312	2.188
enhanced_prediction	10/16	62.5%	2.344	4.062	2.062
embedded_savant_run_environment	10/16	62.5%	2.406	4.188	2.062
fundamental_edge_target_review	10/16	62.5%	2.406	4.188	2.062
capped_target	10/16	62.5%	2.406	4.188	2.062
simulation_result	10/16	62.5%	2.406	4.188	2.062
published_final	10/16	62.5%	2.406	4.188	2.062

Transition	Δ accuracy	Δ hits	Δ team-run MAE	Δ margin MAE	Games whose winner/tie changed
historical_ml → variance_applied	-0.125	-2	0.0225	-0.0326	DET@CLE: DET → TIE; MIL@CIN: MIL → TIE; STL@COL: STL → TIE
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction	0.125	2	-0.125	-0.125	BOS@BAL: BOS → BAL; DET@CLE: TIE → CLE; MIL@CIN: TIE → MIL; STL@COL: TIE → STL
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment	0	0	0.0624	0
embedded_savant_run_environment → fundamental_edge_target_review	0	0	0	0
fundamental_edge_target_review → capped_target	0	0	0	0
capped_target → simulation_result	0	0	0	0
simulation_result → published_final	0	0	0	0

Game	Outcome	Raw model	Calibrated	Governor	Score coherence	Published	Explanation
ARI@HOU	hit	0.6275	0.6219	0.6219	0.6031	0.5825	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
ATL@PHI	hit	0.585	0.5815	0.5815	0.583	0.5599	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
BOS@BAL	miss	0.6303	0.6241	0.6241	0.6445	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CHC@MIA	hit	0.7374	0.7104	0.7104	0.7245	0.7245	score_coherence aligned probability to the published score margin
DET@CLE	hit	0.5085	0.5083	0.5083	0.5463	0.5251	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
DET@CLE	hit	0.568	0.5662	0.5662	0.5753	0.5544	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
LAA@PIT	hit	0.67	0.6591	0.6591	0.662	0.662	score_coherence aligned probability to the published score margin
MIL@CIN	hit	0.6628	0.6526	0.6526	0.6588	0.54	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
MIN@CHW	miss	0.5216	0.5211	0.5211	0.5527	0.5381	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
NYY@SD	miss	0.6275	0.6219	0.6219	0.6434	0.6434	score_coherence aligned probability to the published score margin
OAK@SEA	miss	0.551	0.5499	0.5499	0.5671	0.5485	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
SF@NYM	hit	0.5265	0.5258	0.5258	0.5551	0.5468	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
STL@COL	hit	0.551	0.5499	0.5499	0.5671	0.5485	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
TB@TEX	miss	0.585	0.5815	0.5815	0.583	0.5599	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
TOR@KC	miss	0.551	0.5499	0.5499	0.5671	0.5571	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
WAS@LAD	hit	0.5619	0.5603	0.5603	0.5724	0.5615	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value

Sides analyzed	Broke on pitching	Broke on offense	Both	Variance	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj
32	5	12	1	14	-0.23	-0.44

Slate	Games	Winner acc	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj	Sides broke on pitching	Sides broke on offense
20260905	15	0.533	-1.17	-0.07	2	6
20260904	16	0.625	—	—
20260903	9	0.556	—	—
20260902	15	0.333	—	—
20260901	15	0.467	—	—
20260831	12	0.667	—	—
20260830	14	0.500	—	—
20260829	17	0.941	—	—
20260828	15	0.467	—	—

Game	Pred margin	Actual margin	Pred − actual
ARI@HOU	2	2	0
ATL@PHI	1	3	-2
BOS@BAL	2	1	1
CHC@MIA	3	5	-2
DET@CLE	1	1	0
DET@CLE	1	1	0
LAA@PIT	2	1	1
MIL@CIN	3	3	0
MIN@CHW	1	3	-2
NYY@SD	3	1	2
OAK@SEA	1	1	0
SF@NYM	1	4	-3
STL@COL	1	1	0
TB@TEX	1	1	0
TOR@KC	2	7	-5
WAS@LAD	1	2	-1

ARI@HOUHIT

Predicted: HOU 4-6 (conf +0.17, moderate)Actual: HOU 1-3Brier 0.174total bias +6

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.17 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias +6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.029, recent +0.444, pitcher +0.038, composite +0.539
confidence pipeline reached 0.622 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.583
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 6 (10 vs 4)
ARI offense over-projected by 3
HOU offense over-projected by 3
Cristian Javier (HOU) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
ARI	Merrill Kelly	3 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	0
HOU	Cristian Javier	4 ER / 13 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×1.039 / away×1.001; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Yainer Diaz (HOU C): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Nolan Arenado (ARI 3B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Gabriel Moreno (ARI C): 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.95]
Jeremy Peña (HOU SS): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Corbin Carroll (ARI RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Cristian Javier (HOU) posted 1.80 ERA vs projected 8.31 (1 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

Per-pitch matchup fields are not populated in the current feeds, so this is reconstructed from the settled box: each starter's workload-adjusted ERA, the bullpen share behind him, and the opposing lineup's real production against its projection, with the hitters who beat that projection named.

AWAY pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Merrill Kelly (ARI) at a projected 5.4 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Yainer Diaz: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.304, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Cristian Javier (HOU) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 8.31 ERA (-6.51 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 8 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 3 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Gabriel Moreno: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.95 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.366, elite - real projection error
Ketel Marte: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.349, elite - real projection error
Tim Tawa: 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.304, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
HOU	Cristian Javier (Starter)	15 / 13	1.8 / 8.31 (-6.51)	1 / 4	1 / 5	1 / 1	3 / 3	8 / 3	venue home: 6.75 vs 9.95 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 13 prior appearances this season
HOU	Bryan Abreu (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1
HOU	Josh Hader (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 0
HOU	Enyel De Los Santos (Middle Reliever)	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
HOU	Yainer Diaz (C)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.09	0.304 below average	good day
ARI	Nolan Arenado (3B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-1.07	0.282 weak	projection too high
ARI	Gabriel Moreno (C)	2 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0.95	0.366 elite	projection too low
HOU	Jeremy Peña (SS)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.93	0.326 above average	bad day
ARI	Corbin Carroll (RF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.342 elite	bad day
ARI	Ketel Marte (2B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.64	0.349 elite	projection too low
ARI	Max Kepler (LF)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.27 weak	—
ARI	Ryan Waldschmidt (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.304 below average	—
HOU	Taylor Trammell (RF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.285 below average	—
HOU	Jose Altuve (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.272 weak	—
HOU	Daulton Varsho (CF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.292 below average	—
ARI	Lars Nootbaar (DH)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.45	0.346 elite	—
ARI	Tim Tawa (1B)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	0.33	0.304 below average	—
HOU	LaMonte Wade Jr. (LF)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.278 weak	—
HOU	Yordan Alvarez (DH)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.17	0.45 elite	—
HOU	Isaac Paredes (3B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.02	0.32 average	—
ARI	Geraldo Perdomo (SS)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0	0.327 above average	—
HOU	Christian Walker (1B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.3 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.029	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.444	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.038	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.539	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.33-4.7	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.583	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.33-4.7	4-5	0.626	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-6	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	4-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	4-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	4-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
ARI	Corbin Carroll	batter / RF	worse	predicted_RBI 1.63
HOU	Yordan Alvarez	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.52
HOU	Christian Walker	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.5
ARI	Gabriel Moreno	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 1.364
ARI	Nolan Arenado	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.16
HOU	Daulton Varsho	batter / CF	deboosted	predicted_H 1.13
HOU	Jose Altuve	batter / 2B	better	predicted_H 1.12
ARI	Geraldo Perdomo	batter / SS	deboosted	predicted_AB 1.05

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ARI
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	ARI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gabriel Moreno: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Lars Nootbaar: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Max Kepler: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Waldschmidt: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	ARI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7).	HOU
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Taylor Trammell: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Yainer Diaz: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Walker: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	HOU
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

ATL@PHIHIT

Predicted: ATL 4-3 (conf -0.12, moderate)Actual: ATL 5-2Brier 0.194total bias +0

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.446, recent -0.318, pitcher -0.120, composite -0.768
confidence pipeline reached 0.582 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.440
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
ATL	Chris Sale	2 ER / 19 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	0
PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	3 ER / 19 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.935 / away×1.055; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Kyle Schwarber (PHI DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Mauricio Dubón (ATL CF): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Alec Bohm (PHI 1B): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.38]
Bryce Harper (PHI RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL RF): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.92]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Chris Sale (ATL) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 2.84 ERA (0.16 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 9 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Alec Bohm: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.38 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - real projection error
Luis Arraez: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error
Trea Turner: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.294, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) threw 18 outs, 3 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 4.26 ERA (0.24 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Mauricio Dubón: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.302, below average - a good day, not a model error
Ronald Acuña Jr.: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.92 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.362, elite - real projection error
Ozzie Albies: 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.284, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
ATL	Chris Sale (Starter)	18 / 19	3 / 2.84	2 / 2	6 / 6	1 / 1	1 / 0	7 / 6	venue away: 2.71 vs 1.45 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.94 (average) · 24 prior appearances this season
ATL	Raisel Iglesias (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0
ATL	Didier Fuentes (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0
PHI	Cristopher Sánchez (Starter)	18 / 19	4.5 / 4.26	3 / 3	5 / 8	0 / 0	3 / 1	5 / 7	venue home: 1.68 vs 3.68 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.05 (strong) · 28 prior appearances this season
PHI	Orion Kerkering (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	18 / 13.5 (+4.50)	2 / 1	1 / 2	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
PHI	Kyle Schwarber (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.365 elite	bad day
ATL	Mauricio Dubón (CF)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1.4	0.302 below average	good day
PHI	Alec Bohm (1B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.38	0.323 above average	projection too low
PHI	Bryce Harper (RF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.11	0.393 elite	bad day
ATL	Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF)	5 / 5	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.92	0.362 elite	projection too low
ATL	Matt Olson (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.355 elite	bad day
PHI	Bryan De La Cruz (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.281 weak	projection too high
PHI	Luis Arraez (2B)	4 / 5	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.307 average	no signal
ATL	Sean Murphy (C)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	-0.74	0.275 weak	projection too high
ATL	Lane Thomas (LF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.314 average	—
ATL	Ha-Seong Kim (SS)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.216 weak	—
ATL	Drake Baldwin (DH)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.367 elite	—
ATL	Ozzie Albies (2B)	5 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.284 below average	—
PHI	Trea Turner (SS)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.294 below average	—
PHI	J.T. Realmuto (C)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.323 above average	—
ATL	Austin Riley (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.298 below average	—
PHI	Edmundo Sosa (3B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.333 above average	—
PHI	Derek Hill (CF)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.282 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.446	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.318	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.12	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.768	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.05-3.94	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-3	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.05-3.94	5-4	-0.117	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	4-3	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	4-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	4-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	4-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	4-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
PHI	Trea Turner	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -2.01
ATL	Chris Sale	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 2
ATL	Drake Baldwin	batter / DH	better	predicted_H 1.922
ATL	Lane Thomas	batter / LF	boosted	predicted_H 1.7
PHI	Derek Hill	batter / CF	worse	predicted_H 1.69
PHI	Bryan De La Cruz	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.474
ATL	Ozzie Albies	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 1.381
PHI	Kyle Schwarber	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.3

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ATL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).	ATL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Lane Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: H current=1 box=0	ATL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=11; HR: current=0, sim=1).	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=6).	PHI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryan De La Cruz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; J.T. Realmuto: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=4; Kyle Schwarber: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=3, BB current=0 box=1	PHI
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

BOS@BALMISS

Predicted: BAL 4-6 (conf +0.06, lean)Actual: BOS 1-0Brier 0.281total bias +9

Root cause: Run environment far lower than projected (over-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 9; total bias +9
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.256, recent +0.642, pitcher +0.009, composite +0.400
confidence pipeline reached 0.624 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.530
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 9 (10 vs 1)
BOS offense over-projected by 3
BAL offense over-projected by 6
Ranger Suarez (BOS) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 3)
Shane Baz (BAL) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
BOS	Ranger Suarez	3 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 21 outs	-3
BAL	Shane Baz	4 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 19 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×0.98 / away×0.97; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Adley Rutschman (BOS C): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Luis Robert Jr. (BAL CF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Mickey Gasper (BOS 1B): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Blaze Alexander (BAL RF): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Pete Alonso (BAL 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Ranger Suarez (BOS) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 5.40 (0 ER in 21 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Ranger Suarez (BOS) threw 21 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (-5.4 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 6 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 6 runs / 8 hits (-6 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Blaze Alexander: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.356, elite - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Shane Baz (BAL) threw 19 outs, 1 ER = 1.42 ERA against a projected 6.35 ERA (-4.93 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Mickey Gasper: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.372, elite - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
BOS	Ranger Suarez (Starter)	21 / 15	0 / 5.4 (-5.40)	0 / 3	5 / 2	0 / 0	1 / 2	3 / 2	venue away: 3.25 vs 4.14 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 24 prior appearances this season
BOS	Aroldis Chapman (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1
BOS	Garrett Whitlock (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1
BAL	Shane Baz (Starter)	19 / 17	1.42 / 6.35 (-4.93)	1 / 4	4 / 4	1 / 0	2 / 1	6 / 6	venue home: 3.82 vs 4.18 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.97 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season
BAL	Josh Walker (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
BOS	Adley Rutschman (C)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-1.4	0.338 above average	bad day
BAL	Luis Robert Jr. (CF)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-1.4	0.321 above average	bad day
BOS	Mickey Gasper (1B)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.07	0.372 elite	projection too low
BAL	Blaze Alexander (RF)	4 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.356 elite	projection too low
BAL	Pete Alonso (1B)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 2	-0.8	0.392 elite	bad day
BOS	Roman Anthony (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.361 elite	—
BOS	Nick Sogard (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.327 above average	—
BAL	Leody Taveras (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.273 weak	—
BAL	Jackson Holliday (2B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.303 below average	—
BAL	Gunnar Henderson (SS)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.316 average	—
BOS	Trevor Story (SS)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.31	0.251 weak	—
BAL	Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.343 elite	—
BOS	Wilyer Abreu (RF)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	-0.12	0.347 elite	—
BOS	Caleb Durbin (3B)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0	0.288 below average	—
BOS	Eli White (CF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.271 weak	—
BOS	Jarren Duran (LF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.296 below average	—
BAL	Coby Mayo (DH)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.319 average	—
BAL	Carlos Narváez (C)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.265 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.256	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.642	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.009	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.4	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.63-3.89	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.63-3.89	5-4	-0.266	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	4-6	3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	4-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	4-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	4-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	4-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
BAL	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 2.29
BOS	Adley Rutschman	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.28
BOS	Roman Anthony	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO 1.914
BAL	Pete Alonso	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB -1.746
BOS	Eli White	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
BOS	Wilyer Abreu	batter / RF	better	predicted_AB -1.36
BOS	Trevor Story	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO -1.356
BAL	Leody Taveras	batter / LF	worse	predicted_H 1.282

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BAL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BOS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=6; RBI: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	BAL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: H current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Blaze Alexander: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Luis Robert Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=5 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jackson Holliday: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	BOS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Mickey Gasper: H current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=4; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Eli White: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	BOS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CHC@MIAHIT

Predicted: CHC 6-3 (conf -0.45, strong)Actual: CHC 6-1Brier 0.076total bias +2

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.45 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.747, recent -0.408, pitcher -0.070, composite -1.206
confidence pipeline reached 0.710 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.275
score-volatility actions: high_total_environment_lift, supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Janson Junk (MIA) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CHC	Shota Imanaga	0 ER / 16 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	1
MIA	Janson Junk	4 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×0.956 / away×1.025; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Heriberto Hernández (MIA LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Michael Conforto (CHC DH): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.13]
Seiya Suzuki (CHC RF): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Nico Hoerner (CHC SS): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Jared Serna (MIA 2B): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Janson Junk (MIA) posted 1.80 ERA vs projected 7.20 (1 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Shota Imanaga (CHC) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (1.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Griffin Conine: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.373, elite - a good day, not a model error
Javier Sanoja: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.287, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Janson Junk (MIA) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-5.4 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 9 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Michael Conforto: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.13 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - real projection error
Nico Hoerner: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.324, above average - real projection error
Michael Busch: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.328, above average - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
CHC	Shota Imanaga (Starter)	18 / 16	1.5 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 3	4 / 5	venue away: 3.65 vs 4.23 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season
MIA	Janson Junk (Starter)	15 / 15	1.8 / 7.2 (-5.40)	1 / 4	3 / 7	0 / 1	1 / 1	4 / 4	venue home: 3.68 vs 4.78 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.03 (strong) · 21 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
MIA	Heriberto Hernández (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.353 elite	bad day
CHC	Michael Conforto (DH)	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	1.13	0.333 above average	projection too low
CHC	Seiya Suzuki (RF)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.339 above average	bad day
CHC	Nico Hoerner (SS)	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.94	0.324 above average	projection too low
MIA	Jared Serna (2B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.294 below average	projection too high
MIA	Agustín Ramírez (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.275 weak	projection too high
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.62	0.369 elite	bad day
CHC	Michael Busch (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.62	0.328 above average	projection too low
CHC	Pedro Ramirez (2B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.293 below average	—
CHC	Carson Kelly (C)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.311 average	—
MIA	Griffin Conine (RF)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.373 elite	—
MIA	Esteury Ruiz (CF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.292 below average	—
MIA	Otto Lopez (SS)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.324 above average	—
MIA	Javier Sanoja (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	0.287 below average	—
CHC	Alex Bregman (3B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.13	0.318 average	—
CHC	Ian Happ (LF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0	0.313 average	—
MIA	Deyvison De Los Santos (1B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.228 weak	—
MIA	Brian Navarreto (C)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.167 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.747	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.408	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.07	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.206	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.92-3.17	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-3	0.725	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.92-3.17	5-3	0.253	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	6-3	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-3	6-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-3	6-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-3	6-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-3	6-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIA	Otto Lopez	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -2.25
MIA	Jared Serna	batter / 2B	better	predicted_SO 2
MIA	Heriberto Hernández	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.972
CHC	Seiya Suzuki	batter / RF	better	predicted_H 1.93
CHC	Michael Busch	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.65
MIA	Javier Sanoja	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 1.57
CHC	Michael Conforto	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
MIA	Esteury Ruiz	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=2, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3).	CHC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Pedro Ramirez: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=10).	MIA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Griffin Conine: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Esteury Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Deyvison De Los Santos: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jared Serna: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Agustín Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	MIA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

DET@CLEHIT

Predicted: CLE 3-4 (conf +0.05, lean)Actual: CLE 6-7Brier 0.226total bias -6

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.05 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias -6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.034, recent +0.830, pitcher +0.011, composite +0.431
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.525
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 6 (7 vs 13)
DET offense under-projected by 3
CLE offense under-projected by 3
Logan Allen (CLE) allowed 3 more ER than projected (3 vs 0)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
DET	Keider Montero	2 ER / 18 outs	1 ER / 17 outs	-1
CLE	Logan Allen	0 ER / 9 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	3

Decision internals: run factors home×1.011 / away×1; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Brayan Rocchio (CLE SS): 2-for-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.33]
Chase DeLauter (CLE RF): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]
Jo Adell (CLE LF): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Steven Kwan (CLE CF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Riley Greene (DET LF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: Keider Montero (DET) posted 13.50 ERA vs projected 3.00 (6 ER in 12 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Keider Montero (DET) threw 12 outs, 6 ER = 13.5 ERA against a projected 3 ERA (10.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 11 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Brayan Rocchio: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI [+2.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error
Chase DeLauter: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.343, elite - real projection error
Angel Genao: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.297, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Logan Allen (CLE) at a projected 0 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 9 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 10 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Max Clark: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.63 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.321, above average - real projection error
Spencer Torkelson: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.31, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
DET	Keider Montero (Starter)	12 / 18	13.5 / 3 (+10.50)	6 / 2	8 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 2	4 / 7	venue away: 3.48 vs 3.24 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (weak) · 28 prior appearances this season
DET	Tyler Holton (Setup Man)	6 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 0
CLE	Cade Smith (Closer)	3 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1
CLE	Erik Sabrowski (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
CLE	Brayan Rocchio (SS)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	5 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2.33	0.292 below average	good day
CLE	Chase DeLauter (RF)	3 / 5	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.11	0.343 elite	projection too low
CLE	Jo Adell (LF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.93	0.325 above average	bad day
CLE	Steven Kwan (CF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 0	-0.8	0.321 above average	bad day
DET	Riley Greene (LF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.78	0.367 elite	bad day
CLE	Angel Genao (3B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.297 below average	good day
CLE	José Ramírez (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.64	0.335 above average	bad day
DET	Max Clark (CF)	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.63	0.321 above average	projection too low
DET	Hao-Yu Lee (2B)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.301 below average	—
DET	Spencer Torkelson (1B)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.31 average	—
CLE	Travis Bazzana (2B)	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.45	0.299 below average	—
CLE	Patrick Bailey (C)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.309 average	—
DET	Gleyber Torres (DH)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.14	0.327 above average	—
DET	Kevin McGonigle (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.35 elite	—
DET	Ben Malgeri (RF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.328 above average	—
DET	Dillon Dingler (C)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.344 elite	—
DET	Javier Báez (SS)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.258 weak	—
CLE	Nathaniel Lowe (1B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.335 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.034	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.83	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.011	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.431	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.46-3.86	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.525	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.46-3.86	4-4	0.597	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	3-4	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CLE	Chase DeLauter	batter / RF	better	predicted_2B 1.772
CLE	Logan Allen	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_IP -1.667
CLE	Steven Kwan	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.6
CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.52
DET	Ben Malgeri	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
DET	Riley Greene	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.36
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	pitcher / Setup Man	better	predicted_IP 1.333
DET	Kevin McGonigle	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 1.157

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	DET
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=8).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Jo Adell: SO current=1 box=2; José Ramírez: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Travis Bazzana: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Chase DeLauter: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1; Nathaniel Lowe: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Patrick Bailey: SO current=1 box=0	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=7).	DET
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gleyber Torres: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ben Malgeri: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Max Clark: 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	DET
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

DET@CLEHIT

Predicted: CLE 3-4 (conf +0.11, moderate)Actual: CLE 3-4Brier 0.199total bias +0

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.11 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 0; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.034, recent +0.830, pitcher +0.059, composite +0.535
confidence pipeline reached 0.566 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.554
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Decision internals: run factors home×1 / away×0.941; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

José Ramírez (CLE DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Travis Bazzana (CLE 2B): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Max Clark (DET CF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Javier Báez (DET SS): 0-for-0, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Chase DeLauter (CLE RF): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Andrew Sears (DET) threw 17 outs, 1 ER = 1.59 ERA against a projected 2.7 ERA (-1.11 ERA error) only 2 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 8 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Travis Bazzana: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.299, below average - a good day, not a model error
Brayan Rocchio: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error
Steven Kwan: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.321, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Foster Griffin (CLE) threw 18 outs, 3 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (-0.26 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Gleyber Torres: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.327, above average - a good day, not a model error
Spencer Torkelson: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.31, average - a good day, not a model error
Kevin McGonigle: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.45 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.35, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
DET	Andrew Sears (Starter)	17 / 10	1.59 / 2.7	1 / 1	4 / 3	0 / 1	2 / 3	4 / 5	opp run factor 1 (weak) · thin sample: 2 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
DET	Jacob Waguespack (Middle Reliever)	3 / 4	18 / 6.75 (+11.25)	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0
DET	Kenley Jansen (Closer)	5 / 2	0 / 27 (-27.00)	0 / 2	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 2
CLE	Foster Griffin (Starter)	18 / 17	4.5 / 4.76	3 / 3	8 / 4	0 / 1	2 / 3	3 / 5	venue home: 3.28 vs 3.14 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.94 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season
CLE	Hunter Gaddis (Setup Man)	6 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
CLE	José Ramírez (DH)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-1.11	0.335 above average	bad day
CLE	Travis Bazzana (2B)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.07	0.299 below average	good day
DET	Max Clark (CF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.321 above average	bad day
DET	Javier Báez (SS)	0 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.78	0.258 weak	projection too high
CLE	Chase DeLauter (RF)	2 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.343 elite	bad day
CLE	Brayan Rocchio (SS)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.64	0.292 below average	good day
DET	Dillon Dingler (C)	3 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.62	0.344 elite	bad day
CLE	Nathaniel Lowe (1B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.62	0.335 above average	bad day
DET	Gleyber Torres (DH)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.47	0.327 above average	—
DET	Spencer Torkelson (1B)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.31 average	—
CLE	Jo Adell (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.325 above average	—
CLE	Angel Genao (3B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.297 below average	—
DET	Kevin McGonigle (3B)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.45	0.35 elite	—
CLE	Steven Kwan (CF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0.33	0.321 above average	—
DET	Ben Malgeri (RF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.328 above average	—
DET	Hao-Yu Lee (2B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.301 below average	—
CLE	Patrick Bailey (C)	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.309 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.034	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.83	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.059	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.535	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.01-4.77	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.554	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.01-4.77	4-5	0.243	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	3-4	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 2.129
CLE	Chase DeLauter	batter / RF	better	predicted_AB -1.67
DET	Kevin McGonigle	batter / 3B	deboosted	predicted_RBI 1.567
CLE	Jo Adell	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 1.394
DET	Javier Báez	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.375
DET	Spencer Torkelson	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO -1.221
CLE	Brayan Rocchio	batter / SS	better	predicted_H 1.2
DET	Max Clark	batter / CF	worse	predicted_H -1.17

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	DET
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=8).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	DET
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gleyber Torres: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Ben Malgeri: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Max Clark: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	DET
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

LAA@PITHIT

Predicted: PIT 5-7 (conf +0.32, strong)Actual: PIT 0-1Brier 0.114total bias +11

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.32 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 11; total bias +11
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.840, recent +0.648, pitcher +0.017, composite +1.020
confidence pipeline reached 0.659 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.662
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 11 (12 vs 1)
LAA offense over-projected by 5
PIT offense over-projected by 6
Ryan Johnson (LAA) allowed 6 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 7)
Jared Jones (PIT) allowed 5 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 5)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAA	Ryan Johnson	7 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	-6
PIT	Jared Jones	5 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-5

Decision internals: run factors home×1.089 / away×1.073; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Zach Neto (LAA SS): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Brandon Lowe (PIT 2B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Moisés Ballesteros (LAA C): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Adam Frazier (LAA DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: Ryan Johnson (LAA) posted 1.50 ERA vs projected 12.60 (1 ER in 18 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (6.48 ERA there vs 3.18 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Ryan Johnson (LAA) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 12.6 ERA (-11.1 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jake Mangum: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.283, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Jared Jones (PIT) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 9 ERA (-9 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Moisés Ballesteros: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.291, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
LAA	Ryan Johnson (Starter)	18 / 15	1.5 / 12.6 (-11.10)	1 / 7	4 / 6	0 / 0	2 / 3	6 / 6	venue away: 6.48 vs 3.18 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.09 (strong) · 17 prior appearances this season
LAA	José Fermin (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0
PIT	Jared Jones (Starter)	18 / 15	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 5	3 / 7	0 / 0	1 / 1	9 / 5	venue home: 5.31 vs 4.28 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.07 (weak) · 16 prior appearances this season
PIT	Mason Montgomery (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
LAA	Zach Neto (SS)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 2	-1.73	0.305 average	no signal
PIT	Brandon Lowe (2B)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.26	0.322 above average	bad day
LAA	Moisés Ballesteros (C)	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.291 below average	good day
LAA	Adam Frazier (DH)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.78	0.258 weak	projection too high
LAA	Oswald Peraza (3B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.271 weak	—
LAA	Christian Moore (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.238 weak	—
PIT	Nick Gonzales (DH)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.327 above average	—
PIT	Oneil Cruz (CF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.352 elite	—
PIT	Konnor Griffin (SS)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.298 below average	—
PIT	Henry Davis (C)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.286 below average	—
LAA	Wade Meckler (RF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.312 average	—
LAA	Mike Trout (CF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.376 elite	—
PIT	Jake Mangum (LF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.283 weak	—
PIT	Spencer Horwitz (1B)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	0.19	0.312 average	—
PIT	Bryan Reynolds (RF)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.36 elite	—
LAA	Vaughn Grissom (1B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.02	0.316 average	—
LAA	Jose Siri (LF)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.307 average	—
PIT	Jacob Gonzalez (3B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.306 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.84	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.648	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.017	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.02	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.69-5.87	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-7	0.662	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-7	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-7	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-7	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-7	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.69-5.87	5-6	-0.175	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	5-7	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-7	5-7	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-7	5-7	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-7	5-7	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-7	5-7	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
LAA	Ryan Johnson	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 4
LAA	Zach Neto	batter / SS	worse	predicted_RBI 2.46
PIT	Brandon Lowe	batter / 2B	better	predicted_AB -1.99
LAA	Oswald Peraza	batter / 3B	neutral	predicted_2B 1.88
PIT	Nick Gonzales	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.551
LAA	Adam Frazier	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
LAA	Christian Moore	batter / 2B	deboosted	predicted_H 1.29
PIT	Jake Mangum	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.226

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PIT
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=1).	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1).	LAA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jose Siri: BB current=0 box=1; Adam Frazier: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Mike Trout: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	PIT
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Nick Gonzales: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Brandon Lowe: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jacob Gonzalez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Oneil Cruz: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Spencer Horwitz: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1	PIT
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

MIL@CINHIT

Predicted: MIL 8-5 (conf -0.08, lean)Actual: MIL 10-7Brier 0.212total bias -4

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias -4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.580, recent -0.654, pitcher -0.166, composite -1.938
confidence pipeline reached 0.653 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.460
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 4 (13 vs 17)
Shane Drohan (MIL) allowed 5 more ER than projected (6 vs 1)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIL	Shane Drohan	1 ER / 16 outs	6 ER / 12 outs	5
CIN	Rhett Lowder	5 ER / 15 outs	6 ER / 12 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.931 / away×1.097; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Matt McLain (CIN 2B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Eugenio Suárez (CIN DH): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
David Hamilton (MIL 3B): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Héctor Rodríguez (CIN RF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Cooper Pratt (MIL SS): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.95]

Starter miss: Shane Drohan (MIL) posted 13.50 ERA vs projected 1.69 (6 ER in 12 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Shane Drohan (MIL) threw 12 outs, 6 ER = 13.5 ERA against a projected 1.69 ERA (11.81 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 9 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 8 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Matt McLain: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error
Eugenio Suárez: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.29, below average - a good day, not a model error
Dane Myers: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.311, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Rhett Lowder (CIN) threw 12 outs, 6 ER = 13.5 ERA against a projected 9 ERA (4.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 10 runs on 12 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

David Hamilton: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.275, weak - a good day, not a model error
Cooper Pratt: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 4 RBI [+0.95 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error
Brice Turang: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 3 RBI [+0.92 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
MIL	Shane Drohan (Starter)	12 / 16	13.5 / 1.69 (+11.81)	6 / 1	5 / 3	2 / 0	2 / 4	5 / 6	venue away: 3.65 vs 5.01 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 27 prior appearances this season
MIL	Aaron Ashby (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 0
MIL	Trevor Megill (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 1
MIL	Antonio Senzatela (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 0	9 / n/a	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
CIN	Rhett Lowder (Starter)	12 / 15	13.5 / 9 (+4.50)	6 / 5	6 / 7	0 / 0	4 / 1	2 / 5	venue home: 3.38 vs 6.79 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.1 (strong) · 24 prior appearances this season
CIN	Luis Mey (Setup Man)	3 / 4	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
CIN	Matt McLain (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.307 average	no signal
CIN	Eugenio Suárez (DH)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.26	0.29 below average	good day
MIL	David Hamilton (3B)	5 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1.09	0.275 weak	good day
CIN	Héctor Rodríguez (RF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	3 / 1	-1.07	0.275 weak	projection too high
MIL	Cooper Pratt (SS)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	4 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.95	0.313 average	no signal
MIL	Jackson Chourio (LF)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.93	0.334 above average	bad day
MIL	Brice Turang (2B)	4 / 5	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.92	0.335 above average	projection too low
CIN	Tyler Stephenson (C)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.78	0.335 above average	bad day
CIN	Dane Myers (CF)	5 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.78	0.311 average	no signal
CIN	Elly De La Cruz (SS)	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.61	0.364 elite	projection too low
CIN	Edwin Arroyo (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.291 below average	—
MIL	Jake Bauers (1B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0.33	0.373 elite	—
MIL	William Contreras (C)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.333 above average	—
MIL	Sal Frelick (RF)	6 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	0.287 below average	—
MIL	Christian Yelich (DH)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.31	0.314 average	—
CIN	JJ Bleday (LF)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	-0.14	0.349 elite	—
MIL	Garrett Mitchell (CF)	2 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.02	0.346 elite	—
CIN	Sal Stewart (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.351 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.58	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.654	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.166	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.938	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.23-3.61	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7-5	0.54	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	8-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.23-3.61	4-4	-0.617	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	7-5	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-5	8-5	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8-5	8-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8-5	8-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8-5	8-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIL	Christian Yelich	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 2.44
MIL	DL Hall	pitcher / Reliever	worse	predicted_ER 2
MIL	David Hamilton	batter / 3B	boosted	predicted_AB 1.98
MIL	Sal Frelick	batter / RF	better	predicted_AB 1.837
CIN	Elly De La Cruz	batter / SS	better	predicted_SO 1.805
CIN	Edwin Arroyo	batter / 3B	deboosted	predicted_AB 1.756
MIL	Jake Bauers	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 1.623
CIN	Tyler Stephenson	batter / C	better	predicted_BB 1.617

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CIN
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=41; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=7; SO: current=9, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	CIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Edwin Arroyo: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=43; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).	MIL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Sal Frelick: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	MIL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

MIN@CHWMISS

Predicted: MIN 6-5 (conf -0.08, lean)Actual: CHW 1-4Brier 0.29total bias +6

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias +6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.359, recent -0.046, pitcher -0.032, composite -0.065
confidence pipeline reached 0.521 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.462
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 6 (11 vs 5)
MIN offense over-projected by 5
Erick Fedde (CHW) allowed 5 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 5)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIN	Zebby Matthews	4 ER / 18 outs	4 ER / 15 outs	0
CHW	Erick Fedde	5 ER / 14 outs	0 ER / 15 outs	-5

Decision internals: run factors home×0.952 / away×0.984; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Josh Bell (MIN DH): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.73]
Ryan Jeffers (MIN C): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Munetaka Murakami (CHW 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Luke Keaschall (MIN RF): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Chase Meidroth (CHW 2B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Zebby Matthews (MIN) threw 15 outs, 4 ER = 7.2 ERA against a projected 6 ERA (1.2 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 6 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Colson Montgomery: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error
Braden Montgomery: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.329, above average - real projection error
Miguel Vargas: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.386, elite - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Erick Fedde (CHW) at a projected 9.64 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Josh Bell: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.73 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - real projection error
Kody Clemens: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.341, elite - real projection error
Royce Lewis: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
MIN	Zebby Matthews (Starter)	15 / 18	7.2 / 6	4 / 4	4 / 4	3 / 0	1 / 1	4 / 6	venue away: 6.38 vs 2.84 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.95 (average) · 19 prior appearances this season
CHW	Bryan Hudson (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
MIN	Josh Bell (DH)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.73	0.333 above average	projection too low
MIN	Ryan Jeffers (C)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.356 elite	bad day
CHW	Munetaka Murakami (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 2	-1.73	0.35 elite	bad day
MIN	Luke Keaschall (RF)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-1.11	0.315 average	no signal
CHW	Chase Meidroth (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.292 below average	projection too high
MIN	Kody Clemens (2B)	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.341 elite	projection too low
CHW	Colson Montgomery (SS)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.307 average	no signal
MIN	Royce Lewis (1B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.316 average	no signal
CHW	Braden Montgomery (RF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.6	0.329 above average	projection too low
CHW	Miguel Vargas (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.6	0.386 elite	projection too low
MIN	Brooks Lee (3B)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.274 weak	—
MIN	Trevor Larnach (LF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.329 above average	—
MIN	Walker Jenkins (CF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.253 weak	—
CHW	Kyle Teel (C)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.29 below average	—
CHW	Andrew Benintendi (DH)	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.31 average	—
CHW	Tristan Peters (CF)	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.16	0.319 average	—
MIN	Kaelen Culpepper (SS)	3 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.02	0.32 average	—
CHW	Sam Antonacci (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.342 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.359	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.046	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.032	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.065	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.81-4.01	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.538	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.81-4.01	5-4	0.203	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	6-5	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	6-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIN	Royce Lewis	batter / 1B	boosted	predicted_RBI 2.26
CHW	Andrew Benintendi	batter / DH	better	predicted_2B 1.829
CHW	Sam Antonacci	batter / LF	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.655
MIN	Luke Keaschall	batter / RF	better	predicted_AB 1.538
CHW	Munetaka Murakami	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.505
CHW	Colson Montgomery	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO -1.432
CHW	Miguel Vargas	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.42
MIN	Ryan Jeffers	batter / C	worse	predicted_H -1.25

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHW
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).	CHW
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Braden Montgomery: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Teel: H current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=11).	MIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: R current=0 box=1; Kaelen Culpepper: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Trevor Larnach: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Royce Lewis: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	MIN
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

NYY@SDMISS

Predicted: NYY 6-3 (conf -0.29, strong)Actual: SD 2-3Brier 0.414total bias +4

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.29 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.727, recent -0.544, pitcher -0.007, composite -1.091
confidence pipeline reached 0.622 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.357
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 4 (9 vs 5)
NYY offense over-projected by 4
Walker Buehler (SD) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)
committed to NYY at 0.29 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
NYY	Max Fried	0 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 17 outs	1
SD	Walker Buehler	4 ER / 16 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×1.022 / away×1.029; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Luis Campusano (SD C): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Ty France (SD 1B): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.42]
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Cody Bellinger (NYY LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Samad Taylor (SD LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Walker Buehler (SD) posted 1.80 ERA vs projected 6.75 (1 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Max Fried (NYY) threw 17 outs, 1 ER = 1.59 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (1.59 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 4 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Luis Campusano: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error
Ty France: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.42 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.331, above average - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Walker Buehler (SD) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 6.75 ERA (-4.95 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 12 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Ben Rice: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.61 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.378, elite - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
NYY	Max Fried (Starter)	17 / 17	1.59 / 0	1 / 0	4 / 2	0 / 0	1 / 2	4 / 6	venue away: 2.56 vs 3.77 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (average) · 16 prior appearances this season
NYY	David Bednar (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0
NYY	Paul Blackburn (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	1 / 4	27 / 0 (+27.00)	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2
SD	Walker Buehler (Starter)	15 / 16	1.8 / 6.75 (-4.95)	1 / 4	3 / 5	1 / 2	2 / 0	6 / 4	venue home: 4.15 vs 5.23 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.03 (strong) · 27 prior appearances this season
SD	Adrian Morejon (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 0
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 5	0 / 5.4 (-5.40)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 2	1 / 1
SD	Mason Miller (Closer)	6 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	4 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
SD	Luis Campusano (C)	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.87	0.335 above average	projection too low
SD	Ty France (1B)	3 / 3	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.42	0.331 above average	projection too low
SD	Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-1.4	0.374 elite	bad day
NYY	Cody Bellinger (LF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-0.8	0.342 elite	bad day
SD	Samad Taylor (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.309 average	no signal
SD	Jackson Merrill (CF)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.336 above average	bad day
NYY	Ben Rice (DH)	4 / 5	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.61	0.378 elite	projection too low
NYY	Trent Grisham (CF)	0 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.337 above average	—
NYY	George Lombard Jr. (SS)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.284 below average	—
NYY	Austin Wells (C)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.291 below average	—
SD	Austin Hays (DH)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.27 weak	—
SD	Manny Machado (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.333 above average	—
SD	Xander Bogaerts (SS)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	-0.33	0.321 above average	—
NYY	Luis García Jr. (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.31	0.348 elite	—
NYY	Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.294 below average	—
SD	Jake Cronenworth (2B)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.272 weak	—
NYY	Spencer Jones (RF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.329 above average	—
NYY	Ryan McMahon (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.308 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.727	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.544	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.007	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.091	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.46-2.99	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	0.643	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.46-2.99	4-3	-0.467	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-3	5-3	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-3	6-3	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-3	6-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-3	6-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-3	6-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
NYY	Ryan McMahon	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 1.85
NYY	Cody Bellinger	batter / LF	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.41
SD	Ty France	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.36
NYY	Spencer Jones	batter / RF	better	predicted_SO -1.188
NYY	Austin Wells	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB 1.184
NYY	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO -1.181
SD	Fernando Tatis Jr.	batter / RF	boosted	predicted_SO 1.162
SD	Jackson Merrill	batter / CF	worse	predicted_H -1.16

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYY
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=5).	NYY
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Trent Grisham: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan McMahon: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	NYY
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2).	SD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Samad Taylor: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Hays: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Ty France: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Xander Bogaerts: 2B current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: BB current=0 box=1; Jake Cronenworth: SO current=1 box=0	SD
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

OAK@SEAMISS

Predicted: SEA 5-6 (conf +0.10, lean)Actual: OAK 7-6Brier 0.301total bias -2

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.10 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.625, recent +0.158, pitcher +0.034, composite +0.639
confidence pipeline reached 0.550 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.548
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Logan Gilbert (SEA) allowed 6 more ER than projected (7 vs 1)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
OAK	Kade Morris	5 ER / 9 outs	5 ER / 8 outs	0
SEA	Logan Gilbert	1 ER / 17 outs	7 ER / 14 outs	6

Decision internals: run factors home×1.019 / away×0.984; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Max Muncy (OAK DH): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Jeff McNeil (OAK 1B): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Josh Naylor (SEA 1B): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
Lazaro Montes (SEA RF): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Alika Williams (OAK SS): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.95]

Starter miss: Logan Gilbert (SEA) posted 13.50 ERA vs projected 1.59 (7 ER in 14 outs); he is materially worse pitching home (3.98 ERA there vs 2.70 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Kade Morris (OAK) threw 8 outs, 5 ER = 16.88 ERA against a projected 15 ERA (1.88 ERA error) only 5 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 10 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 6 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Josh Naylor: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error
Cal Raleigh: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.315, average - a good day, not a model error
Brock Rodden: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.61 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.231, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Logan Gilbert (SEA) threw 14 outs, 7 ER = 13.5 ERA against a projected 1.59 ERA (11.91 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 11 hits and 4 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Max Muncy: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.293, below average - a good day, not a model error
Jeff McNeil: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error
Alika Williams: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.95 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.245, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
OAK	Kade Morris (Starter)	8 / 9	16.88 / 15	5 / 5	5 / 9	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 4	opp run factor 1.02 (weak) · 5 prior appearances this season
OAK	Hogan Harris (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1
OAK	Elvis Alvarado (Closer)	3 / 6	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0
SEA	Logan Gilbert (Starter)	14 / 17	13.5 / 1.59 (+11.91)	7 / 1	8 / 4	4 / 0	2 / 5	10 / 6	venue home: 3.98 vs 2.7 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.98 (weak) · 27 prior appearances this season
SEA	Andrés Muñoz (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
SEA	José A. Ferrer (Setup Man)	3 / 2	0 / 54 (-54.00)	0 / 4	0 / 5	0 / 2	1 / 0	1 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
OAK	Max Muncy (DH)	4 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.87	0.293 below average	good day
OAK	Jeff McNeil (1B)	5 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	1.4	0.307 average	no signal
SEA	Josh Naylor (1B)	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1.25	0.313 average	no signal
SEA	Lazaro Montes (RF)	2 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 2	-1.11	0.27 weak	projection too high
OAK	Alika Williams (SS)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.95	0.245 weak	good day
SEA	Cal Raleigh (C)	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.78	0.315 average	no signal
OAK	Zack Gelof (3B)	5 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.76	0.316 average	no signal
SEA	Brock Rodden (3B)	3 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.61	0.231 weak	good day
SEA	Julio Rodríguez (CF)	5 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.336 above average	—
OAK	Lawrence Butler (RF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.324 above average	—
OAK	Donovan Walton (2B)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.331 above average	—
SEA	J.P. Crawford (SS)	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0.33	0.327 above average	—
OAK	Jonah Heim (C)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.31	0.292 below average	—
SEA	Cole Young (2B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.316 average	—
OAK	Henry Bolte (CF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	2 / 1	0.19	0.311 average	—
SEA	Randy Arozarena (LF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.349 elite	—
OAK	Carlos Cortes (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.306 average	—
SEA	Dominic Canzone (DH)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.356 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.625	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.158	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.034	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.639	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.16-6.15	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.548	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.16-6.15	3-6	0.014	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-6	5-6	-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	5-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	5-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	5-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	5-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
OAK	Jonah Heim	batter / C	worse	predicted_H 2.06
OAK	Kade Morris	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_IP -2
SEA	Dominic Canzone	batter / DH	better	predicted_H 1.95
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	pitcher / Closer	better	predicted_IP 1.9
SEA	Julio Rodríguez	batter / CF	better	predicted_2B 1.837
OAK	Max Muncy	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.833
OAK	Carlos Cortes	batter / LF	better	predicted_BB 1.738
OAK	Jeff McNeil	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 1.689

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	OAK
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SEA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	OAK
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Zack Gelof: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=6).	SEA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cal Raleigh: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=2; Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brock Rodden: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Lazaro Montes: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Cole Young: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	SEA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SF@NYMHIT

Predicted: NYM 4-5 (conf +0.09, lean)Actual: NYM 6-10Brier 0.205total bias -7

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.09 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias -7
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.016, recent -0.185, pitcher -0.075, composite -0.024
confidence pipeline reached 0.526 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.547
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 7 (9 vs 16)
NYM offense under-projected by 5

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SF	Matt Wilkinson	3 ER / 12 outs	4 ER / 9 outs	1
NYM	Nolan McLean	2 ER / 18 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.983 / away×1.058; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Francisco Alvarez (NYM C): 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.33]
Rafael Devers (SF 1B): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 1.56]
Bo Bichette (NYM 3B): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.42]
Mark Vientos (NYM DH): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Juan Soto (NYM LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]

Starter miss: Matt Wilkinson (SF) posted 12.00 ERA vs projected 6.75 (4 ER in 9 outs). Thin prior record (3 prior appearances this season): high projection uncertainty.

What to do: Reduce game confidence for starters the feed has little on (scale by prior appearances); prefer priors and validate any run-param change in shadow.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Matt Wilkinson (SF) threw 9 outs, 4 ER = 12 ERA against a projected 6.75 ERA (5.25 ERA error) only 3 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 9 runs on 9 hits and 5 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 8 hits (6 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Francisco Alvarez: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI [+2.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.326, above average - real projection error
Bo Bichette: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.42 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - real projection error
Mark Vientos: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.314, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Nolan McLean (NYM) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 3 ERA (0 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 10 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Rafael Devers: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI [+1.56 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.34, elite - real projection error
Christian Koss: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.24, weak - a good day, not a model error
Bryce Eldridge: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.357, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
SF	Matt Wilkinson (Starter)	9 / 12	12 / 6.75 (+5.25)	4 / 3	5 / 6	3 / 1	2 / 0	2 / 3	venue away: 6.35 vs 3 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (weak) · thin sample: 3 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
NYM	Nolan McLean (Starter)	18 / 18	3 / 3	2 / 2	6 / 5	0 / 2	4 / 3	7 / 8	venue home: 3.62 vs 2.49 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.06 (weak) · 27 prior appearances this season
NYM	Kodai Senga (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 2

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
NYM	Francisco Alvarez (C)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2.33	0.326 above average	projection too low
SF	Rafael Devers (1B)	4 / 5	3 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	5 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1.56	0.34 elite	projection too low
NYM	Bo Bichette (3B)	3 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.42	0.325 above average	projection too low
NYM	Mark Vientos (DH)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.4	0.314 average	no signal
NYM	Juan Soto (LF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	-1.4	0.416 elite	bad day
NYM	Francisco Lindor (SS)	5 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.07	0.338 above average	projection too low
NYM	Marcus Semien (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.305 average	no signal
SF	Jung Hoo Lee (RF)	5 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.315 average	—
SF	Christian Koss (SS)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.24 weak	—
SF	Bryce Eldridge (DH)	3 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	0.33	0.357 elite	—
SF	Turner Hill (LF)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.16	0.346 elite	—
NYM	Nick Morabito (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 2	-0.14	0.298 below average	—
SF	Osleivis Basabe (3B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.283 weak	—
SF	Drew Gilbert (CF)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.328 above average	—
SF	Drew Cavanaugh (C)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.324 above average	—
SF	Nate Furman (2B)	5 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.213 weak	—
NYM	Carson Benge (RF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.336 above average	—
NYM	Christopher Morel (1B)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.213 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.016	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.185	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.075	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.024	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.39-5.69	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.547	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.39-5.69	3-6	0.707	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-6	4-5	-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SF	Drew Gilbert	batter / CF	better	predicted_2B 1.877
NYM	Juan Soto	batter / LF	boosted	predicted_AB -1.61
NYM	Nick Morabito	batter / CF	better	predicted_SO -1.607
SF	Turner Hill	batter / LF	better	predicted_SO 1.533
SF	Nate Furman	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
NYM	Christopher Morel	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_H 1.5
NYM	Mark Vientos	batter / DH	better	predicted_H 1.297
NYM	Bo Bichette	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_H -1.29

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYM
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SF
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8).	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=5).	NYM
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mark Vientos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Carson Benge: R current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Bo Bichette: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christopher Morel: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Alvarez: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=11).	SF
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Turner Hill: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Rafael Devers: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Osleivis Basabe: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Drew Gilbert: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Drew Cavanaugh: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	SF
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

STL@COLHIT

Predicted: STL 6-5 (conf -0.10, lean)Actual: STL 7-6Brier 0.204total bias -2

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.10 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.715, recent -0.113, pitcher +0.034, composite -0.526
confidence pipeline reached 0.550 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.452
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
STL	Andre Pallante	2 ER / 18 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	-1
COL	Ryan Feltner	6 ER / 14 outs	4 ER / 15 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.028 / away×0.994; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

TJ Rumfield (COL 1B): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.49]
Cole Carrigg (COL SS): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.38]
Iván Herrera (STL DH): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Hunter Goodman (COL C): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Joshua Baez (STL LF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]

Starter miss: Ryan Feltner (COL) posted 7.20 ERA vs projected 11.57 (4 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Andre Pallante (STL) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 3 ERA (-1.2 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 9 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

TJ Rumfield: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+2.49 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.334, above average - real projection error
Cole Carrigg: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.38 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - real projection error
Troy Johnston: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.329, above average - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Ryan Feltner (COL) threw 15 outs, 4 ER = 7.2 ERA against a projected 11.57 ERA (-4.37 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 9 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Iván Herrera: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - real projection error
Thomas Saggese: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.311, average - a good day, not a model error
Leonardo Bernal: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.5 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.377, elite - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
STL	Andre Pallante (Starter)	15 / 18	1.8 / 3	1 / 2	2 / 3	0 / 0	4 / 4	1 / 5	venue away: 2.93 vs 4.02 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.03 (average) · 24 prior appearances this season
STL	Riley O'Brien (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 27 (-27.00)	0 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1
COL	Ryan Feltner (Starter)	15 / 14	7.2 / 11.57 (-4.37)	4 / 6	7 / 9	0 / 3	3 / 1	5 / 3	venue home: 6.26 vs 5.86 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (average) · 21 prior appearances this season
COL	Jimmy Herget (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
COL	Brennan Bernardino (Setup Man)	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
COL	Jordan Romano (Closer)	3 / 3	18 / 0 (+18.00)	2 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
COL	TJ Rumfield (1B)	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	2.49	0.334 above average	projection too low
COL	Cole Carrigg (SS)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.38	0.323 above average	projection too low
STL	Iván Herrera (DH)	5 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.07	0.333 above average	projection too low
COL	Hunter Goodman (C)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-1.07	0.324 above average	bad day
STL	Joshua Baez (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.93	0.329 above average	bad day
STL	Thomas Saggese (SS)	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.64	0.311 average	no signal
COL	Troy Johnston (DH)	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.329 above average	projection too low
COL	Adael Amador (2B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.64	0.261 weak	projection too high
STL	Leonardo Bernal (C)	2 / 5	1 / 2	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.5	0.377 elite	projection too low
STL	Nolan Gorman (3B)	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.275 weak	—
COL	Mickey Moniak (RF)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.281 weak	—
COL	Connor Norby (3B)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.301 below average	—
COL	Zac Veen (LF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.299 below average	—
STL	Alec Burleson (1B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.37 elite	—
STL	Jordan Walker (RF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.31	0.349 elite	—
STL	Bryan Torres (2B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	-0.14	0.301 below average	—
COL	Jake McCarthy (CF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.319 average	—
STL	Nathan Church (CF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.283 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.715	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.113	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.034	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.526	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.49-4.55	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.548	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.49-4.55	5-5	-0.944	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	6-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	6-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
STL	Bryan Torres	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 2.667
COL	Hunter Goodman	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 2.43
COL	Cole Carrigg	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 2.103
STL	Leonardo Bernal	batter / C	worse	predicted_H -1.68
STL	Thomas Saggese	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 1.677
COL	TJ Rumfield	batter / 1B	better	predicted_BB 1.526
STL	Nolan Gorman	batter / 3B	better	predicted_H 1.51
COL	Zac Veen	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	COL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	STL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	COL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Cole Carrigg: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Connor Norby: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Hunter Goodman: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Zac Veen: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=3).	STL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=5 box=4, H current=2 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Joshua Baez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Iván Herrera: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	STL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TB@TEXMISS

Predicted: TEX 3-4 (conf +0.12, moderate)Actual: TB 7-6Brier 0.314total bias -6

Root cause: Run environment far higher than projected (under-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias -6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.496, recent +0.000, pitcher -0.041, composite -0.183
confidence pipeline reached 0.582 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.560
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 6 (7 vs 13)
TB offense under-projected by 4
committed to TEX at 0.12 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TB	Nick Martinez	2 ER / 18 outs	3 ER / 19 outs	1
TEX	Trevor Williams	1 ER / 14 outs	0 ER / 3 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.959 / away×1; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Joc Pederson (TEX DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Jonathan Aranda (TB 1B): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.38]
Jake Burger (TEX 1B): 1-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.99]
Richie Palacios (TB 2B): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Wyatt Langford (TEX LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Nick Martinez (TB) threw 19 outs, 3 ER = 4.26 ERA against a projected 3 ERA (1.26 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 6 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jake Burger: 1-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.99 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.312, average - a good day, not a model error
Evan Carter: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.28, weak - a good day, not a model error
Elias Díaz: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.278, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Trevor Williams (TEX) threw 3 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 1.93 ERA (-1.93 ERA error) only 9 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 12 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jonathan Aranda: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.38 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.35, elite - real projection error
Richie Palacios: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.305, average - a good day, not a model error
Yandy Díaz: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.61 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.355, elite - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
TB	Nick Martinez (Starter)	19 / 18	4.26 / 3	3 / 2	5 / 2	1 / 1	2 / 6	4 / 6	venue away: 1.96 vs 3.92 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (weak) · 26 prior appearances this season
TB	Bryan Baker (Closer)	0 / 3	n/a / 9	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0
TB	Kevin Kelly (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 2
TEX	Trevor Williams (Starter)	3 / 14	0 / 1.93	0 / 1	0 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 6	opp run factor 1 (average) · 9 prior appearances this season
TEX	Chase Silseth (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	0 / 3	n/a / 18	1 / 2	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
TEX	Joc Pederson (DH)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-1.4	0.342 elite	bad day
TB	Jonathan Aranda (1B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1.38	0.35 elite	projection too low
TEX	Jake Burger (1B)	1 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 1	0.99	0.312 average	no signal
TB	Richie Palacios (2B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.93	0.305 average	no signal
TEX	Wyatt Langford (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.313 average	no signal
TEX	Evan Carter (CF)	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.8	0.28 weak	good day
TEX	Brandon Nimmo (RF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.353 elite	bad day
TEX	Elias Díaz (C)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	5 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.62	0.278 weak	good day
TB	Yandy Díaz (DH)	5 / 5	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.61	0.355 elite	projection too low
TEX	Ezequiel Duran (2B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.6	0.306 average	no signal
TB	Junior Caminero (3B)	5 / 5	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.48	0.363 elite	—
TB	Victor Mesa Jr. (RF)	5 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.311 average	—
TB	Chandler Simpson (LF)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.47	0.261 weak	—
TB	Taylor Walls (SS)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.249 weak	—
TB	Cedric Mullins (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.267 weak	—
TEX	Corey Seager (SS)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.351 elite	—
TEX	Cody Freeman (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	-0.14	0.231 weak	—
TB	Liam Hicks (C)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.316 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.496	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.041	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.183	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.43-4.7	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.43-4.7	3-5	0.729	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-5	3-4	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TB	Liam Hicks	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.43
TB	Nick Martinez	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 2
TB	Victor Mesa Jr.	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.84
TB	Chandler Simpson	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.664
TEX	Brandon Nimmo	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.27
TEX	Joc Pederson	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.183
TB	Taylor Walls	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.102
TEX	Wyatt Langford	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.101

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TB
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=4, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2).	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	TB
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Junior Caminero: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Yandy Díaz: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: SO current=0 box=2; Cedric Mullins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Richie Palacios: 3B current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	TEX
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Joc Pederson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Elias Díaz: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cody Freeman: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	TEX
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TOR@KCMISS

Predicted: KC 5-7 (conf +0.11, moderate)Actual: TOR 9-2Brier 0.31total bias +1

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.11 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 9; total bias +1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.234, recent +0.165, pitcher -0.039, composite +0.186
confidence pipeline reached 0.550 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.557
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

TOR offense under-projected by 4
KC offense over-projected by 5
Jameson Taillon (TOR) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)
Daniel Lynch IV (KC) allowed 4 more ER than projected (5 vs 1)
committed to KC at 0.11 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TOR	Jameson Taillon	4 ER / 14 outs	1 ER / 6 outs	-3
KC	Daniel Lynch IV	1 ER / 15 outs	5 ER / 15 outs	4

Decision internals: run factors home×0.936 / away×0.975; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Kazuma Okamoto (TOR 3B): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Carter Jensen (KC C): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.95]
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC SS): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Ernie Clement (TOR SS): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Jac Caglianone (KC RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: Daniel Lynch IV (KC) posted 9.00 ERA vs projected 1.80 (5 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Jameson Taillon (TOR) threw 6 outs, 1 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 7.71 ERA (-3.21 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 9 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 6 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Bobby Witt Jr.: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.383, elite - real projection error
Vinnie Pasquantino: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - real projection error
Michael Massey: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.306, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Daniel Lynch IV (KC) threw 15 outs, 5 ER = 9 ERA against a projected 1.8 ERA (7.2 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 12 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Ernie Clement: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.266, weak - a good day, not a model error
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - a good day, not a model error
Alejandro Kirk: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.45 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.302, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
TOR	Jameson Taillon (Starter)	6 / 14	4.5 / 7.71 (-3.21)	1 / 4	2 / 4	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 3	venue away: 7.18 vs 4.22 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.94 (weak) · 17 prior appearances this season
TOR	Michael Lorenzen (Setup Man)	9 / 2	3 / 13.5 (-10.50)	1 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1
KC	Daniel Lynch IV (Starter)	15 / 15	9 / 1.8 (+7.20)	5 / 1	7 / 4	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 8	venue home: 5.4 vs 7.94 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (weak) · 51 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
TOR	Kazuma Okamoto (3B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.26	0.319 average	no signal
KC	Carter Jensen (C)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.95	0.304 below average	projection too high
KC	Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.93	0.383 elite	projection too low
TOR	Ernie Clement (SS)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.78	0.266 weak	good day
KC	Jac Caglianone (RF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.357 elite	bad day
KC	Vinnie Pasquantino (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.6	0.325 above average	projection too low
TOR	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.333 above average	—
KC	Isaac Collins (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.296 below average	—
KC	Kyle Isbel (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.264 weak	—
TOR	Alejandro Kirk (C)	5 / 5	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.45	0.302 below average	—
KC	Michael Massey (2B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.306 average	—
TOR	Myles Straw (LF)	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.16	0.296 below average	—
KC	Salvador Perez (DH)	3 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.16	0.308 average	—
TOR	Charles McAdoo (2B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.269 weak	—
TOR	Brett Bateman (CF)	3 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.282 weak	—
TOR	George Springer (DH)	5 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.306 average	—
TOR	Nathan Lukes (RF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.287 below average	—
KC	Nick Loftin (3B)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.297 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.234	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.165	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.039	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.186	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.61-5.8	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.557	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-7	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-7	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-7	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-7	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.61-5.8	4-6	-0.191	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	5-6	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	5-7	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-7	5-7	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-7	5-7	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-7	5-7	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
KC	Carter Jensen	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 2.99
TOR	George Springer	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 2.42
TOR	Alejandro Kirk	batter / C	better	predicted_AB -1.9
KC	Salvador Perez	batter / DH	worse	predicted_2B 1.831
KC	Kyle Isbel	batter / CF	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.72
KC	Nick Loftin	batter / 3B	better	predicted_H 1.61
TOR	Myles Straw	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB 1.5
KC	Jac Caglianone	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H -1.42

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	KC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=5).	KC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Jac Caglianone: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: BB current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=9).	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=8).	TOR
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; George Springer: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Charles McAdoo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0	TOR
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

WAS@LADHIT

Predicted: LAD 4-5 (conf +0.12, moderate)Actual: LAD 3-5Brier 0.192total bias +1

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 1; total bias +1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.629, recent +0.042, pitcher -0.021, composite +0.490
confidence pipeline reached 0.560 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.561
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
WAS	Jackson Kent	4 ER / 13 outs	3 ER / 15 outs	-1
LAD	Blake Snell	2 ER / 16 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.015 / away×1.036; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Kyle Tucker (LAD RF): 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Will Smith (LAD C): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Tommy Edman (LAD CF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Miguel Rojas (LAD 2B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Jacob Young (WAS CF): 0-for-0, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.66]

Starter miss: Blake Snell (LAD) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 3.38 (0 ER in 18 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Jackson Kent (WAS) threw 15 outs, 3 ER = 5.4 ERA against a projected 8.31 ERA (-2.91 ERA error) only 4 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Kyle Tucker: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.327, above average - real projection error
Teoscar Hernández: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - real projection error
Alex Call: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.277, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Blake Snell (LAD) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 3.38 ERA (-3.38 ERA error) only 5 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 8 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jacob Young: 0-for-0, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.319, average - a good day, not a model error
Brady House: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.336, above average - a good day, not a model error
Dylan Crews: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
WAS	Jackson Kent (Starter)	15 / 13	5.4 / 8.31	3 / 4	4 / 5	0 / 0	4 / 4	4 / 4	venue away: 8.64 vs 3.27 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (strong) · thin sample: 4 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
LAD	Blake Snell (Starter)	18 / 16	0 / 3.38 (-3.38)	0 / 2	5 / 2	0 / 0	2 / 1	7 / 10	venue home: 3 vs 1.64 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.04 (strong) · 5 prior appearances this season
LAD	Edgardo Henriquez (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 2	2 / 0
LAD	Tanner Scott (Closer)	1 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
LAD	Kyle Tucker (RF)	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.93	0.327 above average	projection too low
LAD	Will Smith (C)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.377 elite	bad day
LAD	Tommy Edman (CF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.316 average	no signal
LAD	Miguel Rojas (2B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.78	0.312 average	no signal
WAS	Jacob Young (CF)	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.66	0.319 average	no signal
LAD	Teoscar Hernández (LF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.323 above average	projection too low
WAS	CJ Abrams (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.328 above average	—
WAS	Nasim Nuñez (SS)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.267 weak	—
WAS	Brady House (3B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.336 above average	—
LAD	Mookie Betts (SS)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.46	0.329 above average	—
WAS	Harry Ford (C)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.264 weak	—
WAS	Dylan Crews (RF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.31	0.307 average	—
LAD	Alex Call (DH)	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.277 weak	—
WAS	James Wood (LF)	5 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.17	0.417 elite	—
WAS	Andrés Chaparro (DH)	5 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.354 elite	—
LAD	Enrique Hernández (1B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.267 weak	—
WAS	Yohandy Morales (1B)	2 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.398 elite	—
LAD	Max Muncy (3B)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0	0.348 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.629	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.042	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.021	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.49	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.24-5.86	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.561	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.24-5.86	3-6	0.379	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-6	4-5	-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
WAS	Andrés Chaparro	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 2.5
WAS	CJ Abrams	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 1.962
WAS	Harry Ford	batter / C	worse	predicted_RBI 1.83
LAD	Miguel Rojas	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 1.707
LAD	Alex Call	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.676
WAS	Nasim Nuñez	batter / SS	worse	predicted_BB 1.634
LAD	Mookie Betts	batter / SS	deboosted	predicted_AB -1.58
WAS	Dylan Crews	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -1.55

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAD
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=5).	LAD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alex Call: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Kyle Tucker: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	LAD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=12).	WAS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Harry Ford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2; Jacob Young: H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Yohandy Morales: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1; Brady House: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	WAS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, and exactly which games it would help versus hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

Luna deep post-mortem (full)

> Coverage receipt: COMPLETE · 9/8 sections; 16/16 games; 4/4 causes; 5/6 sources

1. Evidence receipt and gaps

Source manifest

Six of seven declared artifacts were loaded:

Source	Status	Purpose
`prediction_review_20260904.json` — 399,800 bytes	Loaded	Official outcomes and scoring errors
`PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260904.json` — 255,680 bytes	Loaded	Probability, provenance, starter, and decision contracts
`continuous_learning_daily_20260904.json` — 2,555,562 bytes	Loaded	Pipeline quality, calibration, probability lineage, score distribution, and starter comparisons
`detailed_20260904.html` — 380,084 bytes	Loaded	Full-game and simulation rendering
`20260904_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html` — 33,148,291 bytes	Loaded	Player-level prediction trace
`audit_report_20260904.html` — 1,949,987 bytes	Loaded	Invariant findings
`audit_report_20260904_integrity_revision.html`	Missing	Post-Luna remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts

The missing integrity-revision artifact is a receipt gap, but the supplied data does not attribute any game-level prediction error to an artifact defect. Every game’s structural audit passed.

Slate coverage

All 16 listed games were reviewed:

ARI@HOU, ATL@PHI, BOS@BAL, CHC@MIA, DET@CLE Game 1, DET@CLE Game 2, LAA@PIT, MIL@CIN, MIN@CHW, NYY@SD, OAK@SEA, SF@NYM, STL@COL, TB@TEX, TOR@KC, WAS@LAD.

Coverage claims:

Expected games: 16.
Games reviewed: 16.
Structural audits: 16/16.
Canonical artifacts loaded: 16.
Continuous-learning games: 16.
Forensic deep-audit games: 16.
Starter comparisons: 15/16.
Structural audit summary: 0 critical, 0 error, 117 info, 0 warning.

The second DET@CLE entry has no starter_lines, explaining the 15/16 starter-comparison coverage. Two entries share the same matchup label, but the second has a distinct game ID (20260904_DET@CLE_2), so this is an identifiable doubleheader rather than an unexplained duplicate.

Other evidence gaps

Player-level actuals were unavailable for BOS@BAL, MIN@CHW, NYY@SD, OAK@SEA, TB@TEX, and TOR@KC. The diagnosis explicitly says “no per-player actuals for this game yet.”
No source-labelled moneyline was available for any game; market agreement was therefore not testable.
Six games do not include a detailed score_evolution array in the supplied diagnosis: ARI@HOU, ATL@PHI, CHC@MIA, DET@CLE Game 1, DET@CLE Game 2, LAA@PIT, MIL@CIN, SF@NYM, STL@COL, and WAS@LAD. Their final scores and stage-level aggregate metrics are available, but not their individual score paths.
The probability lineage contains two critical unexplained publication deltas: ARI@HOU and SF@NYM.
The causal register lists DET@CLE twice in several affected-game arrays. This appears to reflect the doubleheader or repeated aggregation, but the register does not distinguish the game IDs.

2. Executive diagnosis

Overall result

Winner accuracy: 10/16, 62.5%.
Walk-forward baseline accuracy: 55.9%.
Holdout/model validation winner accuracy: 58.4%.
Slate winner result: better than the supplied baseline, but not strong enough to establish a durable improvement by itself.
Losses: BOS@BAL, MIN@CHW, NYY@SD, OAK@SEA, TB@TEX, TOR@KC.
Mean team-run absolute error on losses: 6.0.
Mean total-run bias on losses: +2.0, meaning the model generally overprojected total scoring across the losses.
Weighted absolute calibration error: 0.1316.
High-conviction misses: 3/9, a 33.3% miss rate.
Exact score accuracy is not reported as a percentage. Four correct-winner games were explicitly marked right_winner_wrong_score: ARI@HOU, DET@CLE Game 1, LAA@PIT, and SF@NYM.

A correct winner does not imply a good full prediction. For example, LAA@PIT selected the correct side but missed the total by 11 runs; ARI@HOU selected HOU but projected 6–4 instead of 3–1.

Separate diagnoses

Winner accuracy

The directional model was moderately successful at 62.5%, with the stronger directional evidence generally working:

CHC@MIA: composite home edge −1.2062, CHC won.
LAA@PIT: composite home edge +1.0202, PIT won.
MIL@CIN: composite home edge −1.9382, MIL won.
WAS@LAD: composite home edge +0.4900, LAD won.

The major directional failures were less about tiny random margins in some cases and more about low-scoring or starter-driven reversals:

NYY@SD: a strong 0.29 away confidence edge lost.
TOR@KC: a moderate 0.11 home edge lost by seven runs.
OAK@SEA: a lean 0.10 home edge lost after Logan Gilbert allowed seven earned runs.
MIN@CHW: near-even composite evidence, but the model still selected MIN.

Calibration quality

Calibration was weak despite acceptable winner accuracy:

Weighted absolute calibration error: 0.1316.
The 0.50–0.55 bucket had average confidence 0.5396 and observed hit rate 0.5714.
The 0.55–0.60 bucket had average confidence 0.5626 and observed hit rate 0.6667.
The 0.60–0.65 bucket contained one game at 0.6434 that lost.
The 0.65–0.70 bucket contained one game at 0.662 that hit.
The 0.70–0.80 bucket contained one game at 0.7245 that hit.

The bucket labels are internally consistent with the stated definition—published confidence minus observed hit rate—but the one-game high buckets are not statistically reliable. The high-raw cluster was 3/3 on this slate, while its empirical historical hit rates were only approximately 0.548–0.550. That is evidence against trusting raw high confidence, not evidence that the current cluster is correctly calibrated.

Score accuracy

The run model is the clearest model limitation:

Historical holdout R²:
Away runs: 0.026352.
Home runs: 0.018723.
Total runs: 0.026024.
Walk-forward Brier: 0.244044.
Historical ML stage total-run MAE: 4.2626.
Published final total-run MAE: 4.1875.
Published final team-run MAE: 2.4062.
Margin MAE: 2.0625.
Margin distribution: 13/16 predicted margins were ≤2, while 3 actual margins were ≥4.
Mean signed predicted-margin error was +0.562 in the spread analysis, while the cross-slate margin-bias series is improving toward zero.

A small positive R² means the model explains slightly more than a trivial average target. It does not make exact scores reliable. The slate had both under-dispersed and over-dispersed outcomes: BOS@BAL, MIN@CHW, and ARI@HOU were large total overprojections, while SF@NYM and TB@TEX were material underprojections.

Starter accuracy

Starter projections were a material contributor:

Three losses were labelled primarily starter_projection: MIN@CHW, OAK@SEA, TOR@KC.
Several correct-winner games also had very large starter ER errors, including ARI@HOU, LAA@PIT, and MIL@CIN.
The lever-tension evidence says pitcher-weight changes helped 10 games and hurt 3, but this is an observational slate count, not proof that reweighting will improve future performance.
Starter identity was false in both DET@CLE Game 1 comparisons, so those comparisons should not be used as clean evidence for starter-model tuning.

Artifact integrity

Artifact integrity was not the cause of the six misses:

Every game had a structural audit status of PASS.
There were no critical, error, or warning findings in the per-game audits.
Forecast-file integrity was reported clean in every game.
However, the complete probability contract is not clean: ARI@HOU and SF@NYM have unexplained calibrated-to-published deltas of at least two percentage points. This is a critical evidence/contract failure, not merely a model-quality issue.
The missing integrity-revision artifact is an additional receipt gap.

Causal issue register reconciliation

Critical: `unexplained_probability_publication_delta`

Severity: Critical.
Evidence: two games had unexplained calibrated-to-published deltas ≥2 percentage points.
Affected games: ARI@HOU and SF@NYM.
Action: block promotion until the missing probability transformation is recorded and reconciled.
Guardrail: do not assume the probability governor was bypassed before tracing the pick-side math.

The supplied lineage does show governor values and score-coherence values, but it does not explain the final publication delta in those two games. This is enough to block promotion, not enough to conclude a governor bypass.

High: `weak_run_model_signal`

Severity: High.
Evidence: home/away/total R² of 0.0187/0.0264/0.0260.
Affected games: all 16, with DET@CLE listed twice by the register.
Action: treat exact scores as low-confidence; investigate stronger features or a better target before tuning score tails.
Guardrail: small positive R² does not establish reliable exact-score forecasts.

This is a material model risk, not a contract failure. The proposed action is isolated feature/target training and backtesting, not blind nightly tuning.

Info: `complete_slate_audit_coverage`

Severity: Info.
Evidence: 16/16 games structurally audited.
Action: retain a per-game audit receipt.
Guardrail: complete audit coverage does not cancel findings within audited games.

Info: `simulation_inert_on_slate`

Severity: Info on this slate; escalated across slates.
Evidence: zero flip candidates and zero published flips on 16 games.
Action: measure simulation contribution across rolling slates and separate score realization from winner flipping.
Guardrail: zero winner flips is not automatically a defect and does not prove that simulation did no score reconciliation.

Because this finding has persisted for eight consecutive slates, it is now an established operational pattern requiring code/diagnostic action.

3. Every game

Notation: starter lines are projected ER/outs versus actual ER/outs. “Total error” is the absolute total-run error, equivalent to the absolute value of the listed total bias.

ARI@HOU — correct winner, wrong score

Prediction: HOU 6, ARI 4; HOU winner.
Actual: HOU 3, ARI 1; HOU winner.
Published HOU probability: 0.5825; home-minus-away edge +0.165.
Conviction: moderate.
Brier: 0.174304.
Team-run error: 6; total error/bias: 6 over.
Starters:
Merrill Kelly: 3 ER/15 outs projected; 3 ER/18 actual.
Cristian Javier: 4 ER/13 projected; 1 ER/15 actual.
Edges: season −0.029, recent +0.444, pitcher +0.038, composite +0.539 home.
Controls: raw 0.6153 → governed 0.6219; no recency guardrail; later published 0.5825. Score-volatility action: no change. Savant adjustment applied.
Score path: not supplied beyond final published score.
Player adjustments: none supplied.
Audit: PASS, 0 critical/error/warning, 7 info; artifact clean.
Causes: no directional miss; primary/secondary causes are not assigned. The score miss was largely the HOU starter allowing three fewer ER than projected and an overestimated total environment.
Audit caveat: the calibrated-to-published probability delta is unexplained and critical for lineage, even though the winner was correct.

ATL@PHI — correct winner and strong score call

Prediction: ATL 4, PHI 3; ATL winner.
Actual: ATL 5, PHI 2; ATL winner.
Published ATL probability: 0.5599; home-minus-away edge −0.1199.
Conviction: moderate.
Brier: 0.193658.
Team-run error: 2; total error: 0.
Starters:
Chris Sale: 2 ER/19 projected; 2 ER/18 actual.
Cristopher Sánchez: 3 ER/19 projected; 3 ER/18 actual.
Edges: season −0.446, recent −0.318, pitcher −0.120, composite −0.768 home.
Controls: raw 0.6000 → governed 0.5815; recency guardrail applied; final published probability 0.5599. No volatility change; Savant adjustment applied.
Score path: not supplied beyond final score.
Player adjustments: none supplied.
Audit: PASS, 0 critical/error/warning, 8 info.
Causes: none material. This was a strong correct call; starter and total-run projections were accurate.

BOS@BAL — directional miss and major score overprojection

Prediction: BAL 6, BOS 4; BAL winner.
Actual: BOS 1, BAL 0; BOS winner.
Published BAL probability: 0.5300; home-minus-away edge +0.060.
Conviction: lean.
Brier: 0.280900.
Team-run error: 9; total error: 9 over.
Starters:
Ranger Suárez: 3 ER/15 projected; 0 ER/21 actual.
Shane Baz: 4 ER/17 projected; 1 ER/19 actual.
Edges: season −0.256, recent +0.642, pitcher +0.009, composite +0.400 home.
Controls: raw/governor input 0.5300; calibrated/governed 0.6241; recency guardrail applied; published probability 0.5300. Volatility action: supported blowout-margin expansion. Savant adjustment applied.
Score path: historical 4.63–3.89 → variance 5–4 → enhanced 4–6 → Savant 4–6 → final 4–6. The winner changed from the historical away lean to the home side at enhanced prediction.
Player adjustments: 21 material changes. Largest listed effects included Encarnacion-Strand, Rutschman, Roman Anthony, Alonso, Eli White, Abreu, Story, and Taveras.
Audit: PASS, 0 critical/error/warning, 7 info. Player actuals unavailable.
Primary cause: run_environment_over.
Secondary cause: none formally assigned.
Diagnosis: both starters materially outperformed projections, producing a nine-run overprojection. The recent/home evidence pulled the model toward BAL, but the actual game was a low-scoring BOS shutout.

CHC@MIA — strong correct call

Prediction: CHC 6, MIA 3; CHC winner.
Actual: CHC 6, MIA 1; CHC winner.
Published CHC probability: 0.7245; home-minus-away edge −0.449.
Conviction: strong.
Brier: 0.075890.
Team-run error: 2; total error: 2 over.
Starters:
Shota Imanaga: 0 ER/16 projected; 1 ER/18 actual.
Janson Junk: 4 ER/15 projected; 1 ER/15 actual.
Edges: season −0.747, recent −0.408, pitcher −0.070, composite −1.206 home.
Controls: raw 0.7034 → governed 0.7104; no recency guardrail; score-coherence publication 0.7245. Volatility actions: high-total-environment lift and supported blowout expansion.
Score path: not supplied beyond final score.
Player adjustments: none supplied.
Audit: PASS, 0 critical/error/warning, 7 info.
Causes: none material. This was a strong correct call, though the high-confidence probability remains historically aggressive given the cluster’s empirical hit rate near 0.55.

DET@CLE Game 1 — correct winner, wrong score

Prediction: CLE 4, DET 3; CLE winner.
Actual: CLE 7, DET 6; CLE winner.
Published CLE probability: 0.5251; home-minus-away edge +0.0502.
Conviction: lean.
Brier: 0.225537.
Team-run error: 6; total error: 6 under.
Starters:
Keider Montero: 2 ER/18 projected; 1 ER/17 actual; identity mismatch.
Logan Allen: 0 ER/9 projected; 3 ER/18 actual; identity mismatch.
Edges: season +0.034, recent +0.830, pitcher +0.011, composite +0.431 home.
Controls: raw 0.5220 → governed 0.5083; recency guardrail applied; published 0.5251. No volatility change.
Score path: not supplied beyond final score.
Player adjustments: none supplied.
Audit: PASS, 0 critical/error/warning, 7 info.
Causes: no formal primary/secondary cause. The correct side was retained, but CLE’s starter allowed three more ER than projected and both offenses produced more than forecast.
Data caveat: starter identity mismatch reduces the evidentiary value of this starter comparison.

DET@CLE Game 2 — correct winner and exact score

Prediction: CLE 4, DET 3; CLE winner.
Actual: CLE 4, DET 3; CLE winner.
Published CLE probability: 0.5544; home-minus-away edge +0.1088.
Conviction: moderate.
Brier: 0.198558.
Team-run error: 0; total error: 0.
Starter lines: not supplied.
Edges: season +0.034, recent +0.830, pitcher +0.059, composite +0.535 home.
Controls: raw 0.5644 → governed 0.5662; recency guardrail applied; published 0.5544. No volatility change.
Score path: not supplied beyond final score.
Player adjustments: none supplied.
Audit: PASS, 0 critical/error/warning, 7 info.
Causes: none. Exact score and winner were correct.
Coverage caveat: this is the one game without a starter comparison.

LAA@PIT — correct winner, wrong score

Prediction: PIT 7, LAA 5; PIT winner.
Actual: PIT 1, LAA 0; PIT winner.
Published PIT probability: 0.6620; home-minus-away edge +0.3241.
Conviction: strong.
Brier: 0.114226.
Team-run error: 11; total error: 11 over.
Starters:
Ryan Johnson: 7 ER/15 projected; 1 ER/18 actual.
Jared Jones: 5 ER/15 projected; 0 ER/18 actual.
Edges: season +0.840, recent +0.648, pitcher +0.017, composite +1.020 home.
Controls: raw 0.6441 → governed 0.6591; no recency guardrail; published 0.6620. No volatility change despite a large Savant swing flag.
Score path: not supplied beyond final score.
Player adjustments: none supplied.
Audit: PASS, 0 critical/error/warning, 8 info.
Causes: no directional cause; the score failure was a joint starter overprojection, especially Ryan Johnson by six ER and Jared Jones by five ER.
Interpretation: a good winner forecast can still be a poor score forecast. This is the clearest example.

MIL@CIN — correct winner and acceptable margin

Prediction: MIL 8, CIN 5; MIL winner.
Actual: MIL 10, CIN 7; MIL winner.
Published MIL probability: 0.5400; home-minus-away edge −0.080.
Conviction: lean.
Brier: 0.211600.
Team-run error: 4; total error: 4 under.
Starters:
Shane Drohan: 1 ER/16 projected; 6 ER/12 actual.
Rhett Lowder: 5 ER/15 projected; 6 ER/12 actual.
Edges: season −1.580, recent −0.654, pitcher −0.166, composite −1.938 home.
Controls: raw 0.5400 → governed 0.6526; recency guardrail applied; final probability was pulled back to 0.5400 after score coherence/guardrail processing. Supported blowout expansion.
Score path: not supplied beyond final score.
Player adjustments: none supplied.
Audit: PASS, 0 critical/error/warning, 7 info.
Causes: none directional. The MIL side was correctly identified despite a five-ER starter underprediction for Drohan.

MIN@CHW — directional miss

Prediction: MIN 6, CHW 5; MIN winner.
Actual: MIN 1, CHW 4; CHW winner.
Published MIN probability: 0.5381; home-minus-away edge −0.0762.
Conviction: lean.
Brier: 0.289555.
Team-run error: 6; total error: 6 over.
Starters:
Zebby Matthews: 4 ER/18 projected; 4 ER/15 actual.
Erick Fedde: 5 ER/14 projected; 0 ER/15 actual.
Edges: season +0.359, recent −0.046, pitcher −0.032, composite −0.065 home.
Controls: raw 0.5317 → governed 0.5211; recency guardrail applied; published 0.5381. No volatility change.
Score path: historical 4.81–4.01 → variance 5–4 → enhanced 6–5 → Savant 6–5 → final 6–5. The model increased MIN’s scoring after the enhanced stage.
Player adjustments: 24 material changes, including Royce Lewis, Benintendi, Sam Antonacci, Keaschall, Murakami, Montgomery, Vargas, and Jeffers.
Audit: PASS; player actuals unavailable.
Primary cause: starter_projection, chiefly Fedde allowing five fewer ER than projected.
Secondary cause: run_environment_over.
Earliest wrong-direction evidence: the weak composite edge was already near neutral, but the enhanced stage moved the score to MIN 6–5; the Savant stage retained that direction rather than correcting it.

NYY@SD — high-conviction directional miss

Prediction: NYY 6, SD 3; NYY winner.
Actual: NYY 2, SD 3; SD winner.
Published NYY probability: 0.6434; home-minus-away edge −0.2869.
Conviction: strong.
Brier: 0.414021, worst on the slate.
Team-run error: 4; total error: 4 over.
Starters:
Max Fried: 0 ER/17 projected; 1 ER/17 actual.
Walker Buehler: 4 ER/16 projected; 1 ER/15 actual.
Edges: season −0.727, recent −0.544, pitcher −0.007, composite −1.091 home.
Controls: raw 0.6290 → governed 0.6219; no recency guardrail; published probability 0.6434. No volatility change despite a large Savant swing flag.
Score path: historical 4.46–2.99 → variance 4–3 → enhanced 5–3 → Savant 6–3 → final 6–3. The Savant stage added one NYY run and preserved a strong away margin.
Player adjustments: 22 material changes, including McMahon, Bellinger, France, Spencer Jones, Wells, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Tatis Jr., and Merrill.
Audit: PASS; player actuals unavailable.
Primary cause: wrong_conviction_side.
Secondary cause: lean_side_miss in the register-style characterization, although the game was actually classified strong.
Additional factor: Buehler allowed three fewer ER than projected; the run environment was four runs lower than forecast.
Earliest wrong-direction evidence: the historical model already favored NYY, and enhanced/Savant stages increased the away score. No later stage recovered toward SD. A 0.29 edge is strong relative to this slate, but it was not supported by the outcome.

OAK@SEA — lean directional miss

Prediction: SEA 6, OAK 5; SEA winner.
Actual: OAK 7, SEA 6; OAK winner.
Published SEA probability: 0.5485; home-minus-away edge +0.097.
Conviction: lean.
Brier: 0.300850.
Team-run error: 2; total error: 2 under.
Starters:
Kade Morris: 5 ER/9 projected; 5 ER/8 actual.
Logan Gilbert: 1 ER/17 projected; 7 ER/14 actual.
Edges: season +0.625, recent +0.158, pitcher +0.034, composite +0.639 home.
Controls: raw 0.5600 → governed 0.5499; recency guardrail applied; published probability 0.5485. No volatility change.
Score path: historical 3.16–6.15 → variance 3–6 → enhanced 5–6 → Savant 5–6 → final 5–6. The model never changed away from SEA.
Player adjustments: 25 material changes, including Heim, Morris, Canzone, Alvarado, Julio Rodríguez, Muncy, Cortes, and McNeil.
Audit: PASS; player actuals unavailable.
Primary cause: starter_projection.
Secondary cause: none.
The decisive miss was Gilbert allowing six more ER than projected. This is a starter-tail failure more than a broad team-run failure.

SF@NYM — correct winner, wrong score

Prediction: NYM 5, SF 4; NYM winner.
Actual: NYM 10, SF 6; NYM winner.
Published NYM probability: 0.5468; home-minus-away edge +0.0937.
Conviction: lean.
Brier: 0.205362.
Team-run error: 7; total error: 7 under.
Starters:
Matt Wilkinson: 3 ER/12 projected; 4 ER/9 actual.
Nolan McLean: 2 ER/18 projected; 2 ER/18 actual.
Edges: season +0.016, recent −0.185, pitcher −0.075, composite −0.024 home.
Controls: raw 0.5559 → governed 0.5258; no recency guardrail; final published probability 0.5468. No volatility change despite a large Savant swing flag.
Score path: not supplied beyond final score.
Player adjustments: none supplied.
Audit: PASS, 0 critical/error/warning, 8 info.
Causes: no directional miss. NYM offense was underprojected by five runs; Wilkinson was one ER worse than projected.
Critical lineage issue: the published-minus-calibrated delta is unexplained.

STL@COL — correct winner and reasonable score

Prediction: STL 6, COL 5; STL winner.
Actual: STL 7, COL 6; STL winner.
Published STL probability: 0.5485; home-minus-away edge −0.097.
Conviction: lean.
Brier: 0.203854.
Team-run error: 2; total error: 2 under.
Starters:
Andre Pallante: 2 ER/18 projected; 1 ER/15 actual.
Ryan Feltner: 6 ER/14 projected; 4 ER/15 actual.
Edges: season −0.715, recent −0.113, pitcher +0.034, composite −0.527 home.
Controls: raw 0.5600 → governed 0.5499; recency guardrail applied; published 0.5485. No volatility change.
Score path: not supplied beyond final score.
Player adjustments: none supplied.
Audit: PASS, 0 critical/error/warning, 7 info.
Causes: none. The STL direction and close margin were sound.

TB@TEX — moderate directional miss

Prediction: TEX 4, TB 3; TEX winner.
Actual: TB 7, TEX 6; TB winner.
Published TEX probability: 0.5599; home-minus-away edge +0.1199.
Conviction: moderate.
Brier: 0.313526.
Team-run error: 6; total error: 6 under.
Starters:
Nick Martinez: 2 ER/18 projected; 3 ER/19 actual.
Trevor Williams: 1 ER/14 projected; 0 ER/3 actual.
Edges: season −0.497, recent 0.000, pitcher −0.041, composite −0.183 home.
Controls: raw 0.5614 → governed 0.5815; recency guardrail applied; published 0.5599. No volatility change.
Score path: historical 3.43–4.70 → variance 3–5 → enhanced 3–4 → Savant 3–4 → final 3–4. The model remained on TEX despite the negative composite home edge.
Player adjustments: 23 material changes, including Hicks, Martinez, Mesa Jr., Simpson, Nimmo, Pederson, Walls, and Langford.
Audit: PASS; player actuals unavailable.
Primary cause: run_environment_under.
Secondary cause: wrong_conviction_side.
The published edge was moderate, not a near coin flip: +0.1199 is a meaningful but limited signal. It should not be treated as confidence-free ambiguity.

TOR@KC — moderate directional miss and major score miss

Prediction: KC 7, TOR 5; KC winner.
Actual: TOR 9, KC 2; TOR winner.
Published KC probability: 0.5571; home-minus-away edge +0.1141.
Conviction: moderate.
Brier: 0.310311.
Team-run error: 9; total error: 1 over.
Starters:
Jameson Taillon: 4 ER/14 projected; 1 ER/6 actual.
Daniel Lynch IV: 1 ER/15 projected; 5 ER/15 actual.
Edges: season −0.234, recent +0.165, pitcher −0.039, composite +0.186 home.
Controls: raw 0.5600 → governed 0.5499; recency guardrail applied; published 0.5571. No volatility change.
Score path: historical 3.61–5.80 → variance 4–6 → enhanced 5–6 → Savant 5–7 → final 5–7. The Savant stage increased KC’s projected lead.
Player adjustments: 25 material changes, including Carter Jensen, Springer, Kirk, Salvador Perez, Isbel, Loftin, Straw, and Caglianone.
Audit: PASS; player actuals unavailable.
Primary cause: starter_projection.
Secondary cause: wrong_conviction_side.
Taillon allowed three fewer ER than projected, while Lynch allowed four more. TOR also scored four more runs than projected and KC scored five fewer.
The 0.1141 home edge is moderate, not a near coin flip.

WAS@LAD — strong correct call

Prediction: LAD 5, WAS 4; LAD winner.
Actual: LAD 5, WAS 3; LAD winner.
Published LAD probability: 0.5615; home-minus-away edge +0.123.
Conviction: moderate.
Brier: 0.192284.
Team-run error: 1; total error: 1 over.
Starters:
Jackson Kent: 4 ER/13 projected; 3 ER/15 actual.
Blake Snell: 2 ER/16 projected; 0 ER/18 actual.
Edges: season +0.629, recent +0.042, pitcher −0.021, composite +0.490 home.
Controls: raw 0.5541 → governed 0.5603; no recency guardrail; published 0.5615. No volatility change.
Score path: not supplied beyond final score.
Player adjustments: none supplied.
Audit: PASS, 0 critical/error/warning, 7 info.
Causes: none. This was a strong winner and score call.

4. Miss reconstruction

Earliest wrong-direction stage for every loss

BOS@BAL

Historical ML: 4.63 BOS–3.89 BAL, still away-favored.
Variance stage: 5–4, still away-favored.
Enhanced prediction: 4–6, moved to BAL.
This is the earliest clear winner-direction regression.
Evidence moved wrong because recent form and matchup adjustments outweighed the negative season edge and near-neutral pitcher edge.
Main failure type: bad weighting / run-environment overprojection.
Starter miss then amplified the score error: both starters outperformed projections.
Irreducible variance remains possible, but the nine-run total overprojection is a systematic run-model concern.

MIN@CHW

Historical ML: MIN 4.81–CHW 4.01.
Variance stage: MIN 5–CHW 4.
Enhanced stage: MIN 6–CHW 5.
The wrong direction was present before the final stages; Savant and later stages did not recover.
Main failure types: starter error, bad weighting, and run-environment overprojection.
Fedde’s projected five ER versus actual zero was decisive.
The composite edge was only −0.0653 home, so the model had weak directional separation and should not have produced a strong margin.

NYY@SD

Historical ML already favored NYY 4.46–2.99.
Variance stage retained NYY 4–3.
Enhanced stage increased NYY to 5–3.
Savant stage increased NYY to 6–3.
There was no later recovery; the winner-direction error was established early and reinforced.
Main failure types: bad input/feature weighting, overconfidence, starter miss, and irreducible variance.
The model’s season/recent/composite evidence strongly favored NYY, but the actual game was decided by a one-run margin.
Buehler’s actual one ER versus projected four reduced the predicted NYY advantage.

OAK@SEA

Historical ML favored SEA 6.15–3.16.
Every later score stage retained SEA as winner.
No stage introduced a new winner-direction regression; the error originated in the initial evidence and was not corrected.
Main failure type: starter projection error.
Gilbert’s actual seven ER versus projected one was the key reversal.
This is not primarily a probability-publication issue; published probability closely matched the calibrated/governed value.

TB@TEX

Historical ML favored TEX 4.70–3.43.
Variance stage retained TEX.
Enhanced stage narrowed the score to TB 3–TEX 4 but did not flip.
All later stages retained TEX.
Main failure types: bad weighting and run-environment underdispersion, with a smaller starter contribution.
The pregame composite edge actually favored TB by −0.1833 home, so the model’s home pick was not strongly supported by its own composite evidence.
Actual scoring was six runs above the projected total.

TOR@KC

Historical ML favored KC 5.80–3.61.
Variance and enhanced stages retained KC.
Savant moved KC to 7 runs and reinforced the wrong side.
Main failure types: starter projection, bad weighting, and directional overcommitment.
Lynch’s actual five ER versus projected one and Taillon’s one versus projected four reversed the expected matchup.
The final margin error was nine runs.
The moderate +0.1141 home edge should not be interpreted as a near coin flip, but it was also not strong enough to justify ignoring the contradictory season and pitcher signals.

Required distinction among miss types

Bad input: possible in the underlying player, lineup, park, weather, or pitcher features, but not directly proven. No source-labelled market data was available, and several player actuals were absent.
Bad weighting: demonstrated in cases where recent/Savant adjustments moved a weak or contradictory matchup into a stronger wrong-side prediction, especially BOS@BAL, MIN@CHW, and TOR@KC.
Calibration: demonstrated by 0.1316 weighted calibration error and 33.3% high-conviction miss rate, especially NYY@SD.
Starter error: directly evidenced in MIN@CHW, OAK@SEA, and TOR@KC, and materially present in BOS@BAL.
Offense/bullpen miss: present in BOS@BAL, SF@NYM, and TOR@KC, but bullpen-specific causal separation is not supplied.
Run-environment miss: overdispersion failure in BOS@BAL, MIN@CHW, and NYY@SD; underdispersion in TB@TEX and missed scoring in SF@NYM.
Irreducible variance: remains plausible in close games such as NYY@SD and TB@TEX, but cannot explain away the persistent run-model and simulation evidence.

Pipeline-stage quality across all stages and transitions

Stage	Winner accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
Historical ML	10/16, 0.625	2.4463	4.2626	2.2201
Variance applied	8/16, 0.500	2.4688	4.3125	2.1875
Enhanced prediction	10/16, 0.625	2.3438	4.0625	2.0625
Embedded Savant run environment	10/16, 0.625	2.4062	4.1875	2.0625
Fundamental edge review	10/16, 0.625	2.4062	4.1875	2.0625
Capped target	10/16, 0.625	2.4062	4.1875	2.0625
Simulation result	10/16, 0.625	2.4062	4.1875	2.0625
Published final	10/16, 0.625	2.4062	4.1875	2.0625

Important transitions:

Historical ML → variance applied

Winner accuracy fell by 0.125, from 10 to 8 hits.
Changed direction: DET@CLE tie, MIL@CIN tie, STL@COL tie.
Regressed games: MIL@CIN and STL@COL.
Margin MAE improved slightly, but team-run MAE worsened by 0.0225.
A later recovery does not erase this intermediate winner-direction regression.

Variance applied → enhanced prediction

Winner accuracy recovered from 8 to 10.
Improved games: DET@CLE, MIL@CIN, STL@COL.
Regressed game: BOS@BAL.
Margin and team-run MAE improved by 0.125.
This recovery does not prove the enhanced stage is universally beneficial; it traded one BOS@BAL directional failure against three recoveries.

Enhanced → embedded Savant

No winner changes.
Team-run MAE worsened from 2.3438 to 2.4062.
No score-stage improvement in aggregate.

Embedded Savant → fundamental review → capped target → simulation → published

No winner changes.
No later score-stage improvement after embedded Savant.
Simulation made no measured winner intervention.

The pipeline therefore shows a useful enhanced-stage aggregate recovery after variance damage, but also a measurable regression at the Savant transition and no evidence that simulation contributed independent winner information.

5. Cross-game counterfactuals

Lever tension 1: widen run distributions

Lever: score.variance_multiplier / score.variance_floor.

Helps:
NYY@SD: lost a 0.29-confidence pick; wider tails could reduce overconfidence.
TB@TEX: lost a 0.12-confidence pick; wider tails could better represent high scoring.
TOR@KC: lost a 0.11-confidence pick; wider tails could reduce narrow-score certainty.
Hurts:
CHC@MIA: strong correct call at 0.45 edge; widening could soften a good separation.
LAA@PIT: strong correct call at 0.32 edge; widening could reduce useful confidence.
Net evidence: 3 helps versus 2 hurts, but the lever targets Brier/calibration and score distribution, not direct winner accuracy. A small bounded change or shadow experiment is more defensible than a broad widening.

Lever tension 2: pitcher form weights and prior games

Lever: player.pitcher.v4 form weights / player.pitcher_prior_games.

Helps:
ARI@HOU, BOS@BAL, CHC@MIA, DET@CLE Game 1, LAA@PIT, MIL@CIN, MIN@CHW, NYY@SD, OAK@SEA, TOR@KC.
Hurts:
ATL@PHI, SF@NYM, TB@TEX.
Net evidence: 10 helps versus 3 hurts.
Caution: several “help” cases are correct-winner games with poor score predictions, so this lever may improve starter ER MAE without necessarily improving winner accuracy. DET@CLE Game 1 also has identity mismatches.

Lever tension 3: recent/season run-mean weighting

Lever: recent.* / season.* run-mean weighting.

Helps:
ARI@HOU, BOS@BAL, DET@CLE Game 1, LAA@PIT, MIL@CIN, MIN@CHW, NYY@SD, SF@NYM, TB@TEX, TOR@KC.
Hurts:
ATL@PHI, CHC@MIA, DET@CLE Game 2, OAK@SEA, STL@COL, WAS@LAD.
Net evidence: 10 helps versus 6 hurts.
Net support is weak-to-moderate because “helps” includes several losses where the lever might improve runs while not fixing the winner.

One-game fixes that must not be made

Do not globally reverse or suppress NYY@SD based on one high-conviction loss; that would damage CHC@MIA and LAA@PIT-style strong correct calls.
Do not force every moderate edge toward the road team because TOR@KC and TB@TEX lost; ATL@PHI, MIL@CIN, and WAS@LAD show moderate directional calls can work.
Do not broadly increase variance solely because of BOS@BAL; CHC@MIA and LAA@PIT were correct strong calls.
Do not reduce Savant influence solely because of the NYY@SD or TOR@KC losses; the aggregate transition was neutral on winners and improved over historical ML on margin MAE, though it worsened team-run MAE relative to enhanced prediction.
Do not tune exact-score tails before addressing the near-zero run-model signal and the inert simulation contract.

6. Data and contract defects

Critical findings

Unexplained probability publication deltas

Affected games:

ARI@HOU:
Calibrated/governed: 0.6219.
Published: 0.582503.
Published minus calibrated: −0.039397.
Score-coherence probability: 0.603129.
Transformation recorded as: “no recorded transformation explains the publication delta.”
SF@NYM:
Calibrated/governed: 0.5258.
Published: 0.546831.
Published minus calibrated: +0.021031.
Score-coherence probability: 0.555095.
Same missing-transformation finding.

These are material lineage gaps. The data does not prove the governor was bypassed; it proves that the complete transformation is not recorded.

Error findings

No error findings were reported in the supplied structural-audit summary or per-game audits.

Warning findings

No warning findings were reported.

Informational findings

117 total structural-audit info findings.
All 16 games structurally audited.
Simulation produced zero flip candidates and zero published flips.
Various games had informational notes, but no per-game info item was supplied as a prediction-contract failure.
Six games lacked player-level actuals, limiting causal attribution.

Prediction-model defects versus artifact bugs

Prediction-model/process defects

Near-zero run-model signal:

Total R² 0.026024.
Home R² 0.018723.
Away R² 0.026352.

High calibration error:

Weighted absolute calibration error 0.1316.

Score-margin compression:

13/16 predicted margins ≤2, while three actual margins were ≥4.

Starter projection instability:

Three losses primarily caused by starter projections.

Simulation inertness:

Zero winner interventions on this slate and an eight-slate persistence streak.

Presentation/artifact/contract defects

Missing integrity-revision audit artifact.
Unexplained final probability transformations for ARI@HOU and SF@NYM.
Duplicate matchup labeling in the causal register for DET@CLE without explicit game-ID distinction.
Incomplete starter comparison coverage for DET@CLE Game 2.
Missing player-level actuals for six games.

The game artifacts themselves were structurally clean. The defects are chiefly lineage, receipt, coverage, and process-contract issues rather than corrupted score files.

Coverage reconciliation

The slate is not fully “clean” merely because 16/16 structural audits passed:

Structural coverage is complete.
Starter coverage is 15/16.
Probability lineage is materially incomplete in 2/16.
Integrity-revision receipt is missing.
Player-level causal coverage is incomplete in 6/16.
Simulation diagnostics are present but demonstrate an eight-slate inert pattern.

Complete pick-side probability lineage

The normal lineage is:

raw model → calibrated → governor → score coherence/recency → published.

Examples of complete recorded transformations:

CHC@MIA:
Raw 0.7374.
Governor input 0.703355.
Governed 0.7104.
Score coherence/published 0.724519.
Transformation explicitly recorded.
MIL@CIN:
Raw 0.6628.
Governor input 0.5400.
Governed 0.6526.
Score coherence 0.658802.
Published 0.5400 after matchup-recency guardrail.
Transformation explicitly recorded.
OAK@SEA:
Raw 0.5510.
Governor input 0.5600.
Governed 0.5499.
Published 0.548498.
Transformation says published probability matches calibrated/governed value.

A material bypass is not declared for any game because the supplied evidence does not show an unrecorded material transformation except the two critical cases. For ARI@HOU and SF@NYM, the correct finding is unreconciled transformation, not proven governor bypass.

7. Cross-slate persistence

Seven prior slates were loaded, producing an eight-slate window from 2026-08-28 through 2026-09-04.

Finding streaks

Finding	Consecutive-slate count	Present now?	Interpretation
High raw probability cluster	0	No	Historical incidence in 2/8 slates; not current
Pipeline winner instability	0	No	Incidence in 3/8; not current
Score-margin compression	0	No	Incidence in 3/8; not current
Simulation inert on slate	8	Yes	Escalated established pattern
Single-slate calibration instability	0	No	Incidence in 5/8, but no current streak
Weak run-model signal	8	Yes	Escalated established pattern

The two eight-slate findings must be treated as established failures, not single-slate noise.

Escalated finding: simulation inertness

Streak: 8 consecutive slates.
Target lever: simulation.allow_score.
Target metrics: team-run MAE and total-run MAE.
Parameter actionability: false.
Direction: confirm the simulation module is running and not silently no-oping.
Evidence: zero winner flips and zero flip candidates on the current 16-game slate; self-assessment identifies the same-draw target-realization/early-exit design as the root cause.
Correct action: code/diagnostic repair, not a forced parameter adjustment.

The supplied self-assessment says the simulation reuses draws collected while searching for a target-realizing play-by-play and may exit after roughly two selected draws. Such a sample cannot support a probability or flip/agreement signal.

Escalated finding: weak run-model signal

Streak: 8 consecutive slates.
Target levers listed: training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate.
Target metrics: team-run MAE and total-run MAE.
Parameter actionability: false in the escalation record.
Direction: investigate features and target via isolated training backtest.
Evidence: current holdout R² remains near zero across away, home, and total runs.
Correct action: feature/target contract work, retraining, and same-fingerprint holdout comparison—not blind nightly hyperparameter tuning.

Top-confidence-pick loss streak

Reported loss streak: 0.
Per-slate results: hit, hit, miss, hit, miss, miss, miss, hit.
The current slate’s top-confidence pick, CHC@MIA at 0.7245 away probability, was a hit.
There is no current top-confidence loss streak to address.

Metric trends

Margin bias: improving. Series moved from −1.333 to −0.688; mean −2.1959.
Mean team-run error on losses: flat. Mean 6.1906; current slate 6.0.
Weighted calibration error: improving. Series ended at 0.1316 from 0.2179, though still materially high.
Winner accuracy: improving. Current slate 0.625; eight-slate series ends at 0.625, mean 0.5694.
Top-confidence loss streak: 0, therefore no regressing streak exists.

Improving trends do not neutralize the escalated eight-slate run-model and simulation defects.

8. Adjustments for today

Recommendations are ranked by persistence first, then scope, expected metric impact, and regression risk.

1. Repair and independently validate simulation — highest evidence strength

Pattern: simulation inertness, eight consecutive slates.
Registered lever: simulation.allow_score, but this is a diagnostic/code target rather than a safe parameter move.
Change: do not force a numeric parameter adjustment; enable and validate an independent unsteered simulation batch for win-probability estimation. The batch should not early-exit while searching for a target-realizing score.
Expected metrics: improve the validity of winner-probability contribution; potentially improve team-run MAE and total-run MAE. Direction expected: lower MAE and nonzero, interpretable winner-intervention rate.
Helps: games with large score-path disagreement or high volatility, especially NYY@SD, TB@TEX, TOR@KC, and the large-swing cases.
Hurts/risk: could soften strong correct calls such as CHC@MIA and LAA@PIT if the independent distribution is noisier; rollback if rolling Brier or winner accuracy worsens.
Required action: code/diagnostic repair in the simulation builder and draw loop, followed by a shadow comparison. Do not promote until the missing distribution contribution is measurable.

2. Run an isolated run-model feature/target backtest — persistent pattern

Pattern: weak run-model signal, eight consecutive slates.
Registered targets: training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate.
Recommended bounded change: no direct nightly hyperparameter move. Perform the registered isolated training experiment after adding or validating park/weather environment, bullpen rest/fatigue, platoon-adjusted lineup quality, and properly source-labelled no-vig market information where available.
Expected metrics: increase away/home/total holdout R² and reduce team-run MAE and total-run MAE.
Helps: broad run-error games such as BOS@BAL, LAA@PIT, MIN@CHW, SF@NYM, and TOR@KC.
Hurts/risk: could overfit and damage low-error games such as ATL@PHI, CHC@MIA, DET@CLE Game 2, STL@COL, and WAS@LAD. Require same-fingerprint holdout comparison and rollback on degraded total-run MAE or calibration.
This is a code/data/training action, not a forced parameter adjustment.

3. Apply a small shadow change to pitcher prior weighting — strongest current single-slate driver

Pattern: starter projection was the primary cause in three of six losses: MIN@CHW, OAK@SEA, TOR@KC.
Registered parameter: player.pitcher_prior_games within player.pitcher.v4 form weighting.
Change: small increase in prior-history weight / modestly increase prior games, preferably in shadow mode. The exact numeric magnitude is not supplied in the evidence, so the change should be the smallest registered configuration increment available, not an invented large shift.
Expected metric: lower starter_er_mae and starter_outs_mae; directional improvement expected secondarily.
Helps: the 10 games listed by the lever-tension record, including the three primary starter-projection losses.
Hurts/risk: ATL@PHI, SF@NYM, and TB@TEX had accurate starter projections; excessive reweighting could disturb them. Roll back if starter MAE improves but winner Brier or total-run MAE degrades.
This is a bounded shadow experiment, not a full promotion.

4. Small confidence/variance calibration shadow

Pattern: current weighted calibration error 0.1316 and high-conviction miss rate 33.3%.
Registered parameters: confidence.base_cap, confidence.moderate_cap, score.variance_multiplier, score.variance_floor.
Change: lower confidence caps slightly and widen run variance slightly, in shadow mode only.
Expected metrics: lower Brier score, lower calibration error, and reduce overconfident tail behavior; score-margin spread should become less compressed.
Helps: NYY@SD, TB@TEX, and TOR@KC are the direct tension beneficiaries.
Hurts/risk: CHC@MIA and LAA@PIT were strong correct calls that could be softened; monitor high-confidence hit rate and calibration by bucket.
Because the high-raw cluster is not present on this slate and its current result was 3/3, this recommendation is weaker than the persistent code/model actions.

Changes explicitly not recommended today

Do not force score.variance_multiplier to a large value based on NYY@SD alone.
Do not alter winner-side selection rules based solely on the moderate TB@TEX or TOR@KC losses.
Do not promote a probability-calibration change until ARI@HOU and SF@NYM lineage is reconciled.
Do not claim simulation is fixed merely because a future slate produces a winner flip; verify independent draws and rolling metrics.

9. Bottom line

Known

The slate went 10–6, or 62.5%, above the supplied walk-forward baseline.
Score quality was materially weaker than winner accuracy: 13/16 predicted margins were ≤2, while three actual margins were at least four runs.
Six losses had mean team-run error of six runs.
Starter projections were the primary labelled cause in three losses.
Run-model holdout R² is near zero across all run targets and has persisted as an escalated eight-slate problem.
Simulation inertness has persisted for eight slates and is a code/diagnostic concern, not a parameter-tuning opportunity.
Every structural game audit passed, but probability lineage is not complete for ARI@HOU and SF@NYM.
The integrity-revision artifact is missing.

Uncertain

Whether recent/Savant weighting is causally responsible for the individual wrong-side calls; lever-tension counts are observational.
Whether the best pitcher adjustment is more prior history, less recent-form weight, or improved pitcher features.
Whether widening variance improves future Brier/calibration without weakening strong correct calls.
The extent to which bullpen, weather, park, lineup, and other absent or imperfect inputs contributed to the run misses.
Exact score accuracy cannot be summarized as a rate from the supplied fields because no slate-wide exact-score metric is provided.

Single safest next action

Block promotion and repair the probability/simulation contracts first: reconcile the ARI@HOU and SF@NYM pick-side probability transformations, then run an independent non-early-exit simulation in shadow mode while preserving the current production output.

That action addresses the only critical contract defect, tests the eight-slate simulation failure without risking the next slate, and creates the evidence needed before changing model weights or confidence caps.

Deep slate report — 20260904

Slate summary

What drove the losses

Source coverage receipt

High-level causal issue register

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Probability lineage and calibration

Score distribution and margin compression

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (16)

ARI@HOUHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

ATL@PHIHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

BOS@BALMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CHC@MIAHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

DET@CLEHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

DET@CLEHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

LAA@PITHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIL@CINHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIN@CHWMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

NYY@SDMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Critical: `unexplained_probability_publication_delta`

High: `weak_run_model_signal`

Info: `complete_slate_audit_coverage`

Info: `simulation_inert_on_slate`