Deep slate report 20260902

Which reports actually fed the diagnosis. A source shown as missing was not silently assumed.

High-level causal issue register

Source	Status	Evidence supplied	Path	Bytes
prediction review	loaded	official outcomes and scoring errors	/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260902.json	n/a
forensic deep audit	loaded	probability, provenance, starter and decision contracts	/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260902.json	n/a
continuous learning	loaded	pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage	/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260902.json	n/a
game artifacts	loaded	per-game model trace and structural audit source	/app/output/games	n/a

Deterministic findings across data integrity, model validation, calibration, score distribution, pipeline stages, simulation, and coverage. Critical is reserved for broken evidence or an unexplained contract violation; high marks material model/process risk. Each row pairs the action to take (Do this) with the wrong conclusion to avoid (Don't conclude).

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

A finding that has repeated at or beyond the escalation streak is no longer single-slate noise. It carries its target registered lever and an action-oriented guardrail.

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Every stored stage is scored against the same official finals. A later recovery remains visible; it does not erase an unstable intermediate flip.

Probability lineage and calibration

All columns are pick-side probabilities, so away favorites are not accidentally compared using home-side semantics.

Score distribution and margin compression

Narrow predicted margins next to wide actual margins is the signature the score-variance tail is too tight.

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

Severity	Domain	Finding and evidence	Affected	Action & guardrail
CRITICAL	probability_lineage	Published probability differs materially without a recorded transformation 1 game(s) have an unexplained ≥2pp calibrated-to-published delta	SF@PIT	Do thisBlock any promotion until the missing probability transformation is recorded and reconciled. Don't concludeDo not assume the probability governor was bypassed until you have traced the pick-side math.
HIGH	artifact_integrity	Canonical artifact warning requires reconciliation structural audit totals: {'critical': 0, 'error': 0, 'warning': 2, 'info': 110}	slate-wide	Do thisFix the flagged stat or presentation contract before treating this slate as clean evidence. Don't concludeA warning flags a display or contract issue; it does not prove the model picked the wrong side.
HIGH	pipeline_stages	An intermediate stage materially degraded winner direction variance_applied → enhanced_prediction changed winner accuracy by -0.2667 (-4 hits)	DET@MIN, OAK@TEX, PHI@ARI, SEA@BOS, TOR@CLE	Do thisList the exact games whose winner flipped at this stage, and keep both the before-stage and after-stage picks in the trace. Don't concludeEven if a later stage recovers the pick, this unstable step is still a risk; do not treat it as harmless.
HIGH	score_distribution	Published margins are compressed relative to realized margins 15/15 predictions were ≤2 runs; 8/15 actual margins were ≥4; mean predicted margin 1.20 vs actual 4.27	ATL@WAS, DET@MIN, NYM@TB, OAK@TEX, SD@CIN, SEA@BOS, TOR@CLE	Do thisCheck whether predicted margins are too narrow across several recent out-of-sample slates (measuring tail coverage and margin MAE) before widening the score spread. Don't concludeA single blowout game is not a reason to widen every score prediction.
HIGH	calibration	Published confidence buckets were poorly aligned on this slate weighted absolute calibration error 0.2100 across 15 games	ATL@WAS, BAL@COL, CHW@HOU, DET@MIN, MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, NYM@TB, NYY@LAA, OAK@TEX, PHI@ARI, SD@CIN, SEA@BOS, SF@PIT, STL@LAD, TOR@CLE	Do thisWatch the same confidence buckets over the full rolling window before changing any calibration weight. Don't concludeA single slate has far too few games to establish a stable calibration curve.
HIGH	model_validation	Validated run models explain very little holdout variance home/away/total R² = 0.0300/0.0214/0.0287	ATL@WAS, BAL@COL, CHW@HOU, DET@MIN, MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, NYM@TB, NYY@LAA, OAK@TEX, PHI@ARI, SD@CIN, SEA@BOS, SF@PIT, STL@LAD, TOR@CLE	Do thisTreat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails. Don't concludeA small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.
INFO	coverage	Every settled game received structural QA 15/15 games structurally audited	ATL@WAS, BAL@COL, CHW@HOU, DET@MIN, MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, NYM@TB, NYY@LAA, OAK@TEX, PHI@ARI, SD@CIN, SEA@BOS, SF@PIT, STL@LAD, TOR@CLE	Do thisKeep the per-game audit receipt in every report. Don't concludeFull audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.
INFO	simulation	Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate flip candidates 0; published flips 0	ATL@WAS, BAL@COL, CHW@HOU, DET@MIN, MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, NYM@TB, NYY@LAA, OAK@TEX, PHI@ARI, SD@CIN, SEA@BOS, SF@PIT, STL@LAD, TOR@CLE	Do thisMeasure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping. Don't concludeZero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Finding	Persistence	Target lever(s)	Direction	Guardrail
score_margin_compression	3 consecutive · 3 in window	score.variance_multiplier, score.variance_floor	widen run distributions	score_margin_compression has persisted 3 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and propose a bounded shadow experiment against a target lever.
simulation_inert_on_slate	6 consecutive · 6 in window	simulation.allow_score	confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping	simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 6 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
single_slate_calibration_instability	3 consecutive · 5 in window	confidence.empirical_max_weight, confidence.base_cap, confidence.moderate_cap	increase empirical shrinkage	single_slate_calibration_instability has persisted 3 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and propose a bounded shadow experiment against a target lever.
weak_run_model_signal	6 consecutive · 6 in window	training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate	investigate features/target via isolated training backtest (manual)	weak_run_model_signal has persisted 6 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Finding	Consecutive slates	Incidence	Present now	Fix type
high_raw_probability_cluster	0	2/6	no	param
pipeline_winner_instability	1	3/6	yes	code/diagnostic
score_margin_compression	3	3/6	yes	param
simulation_inert_on_slate	6	6/6	yes	code/diagnostic
single_slate_calibration_instability	3	5/6	yes	param
weak_run_model_signal	6	6/6	yes	code/diagnostic

Metric	Direction	Series (old → new)
winner_accuracy	regressing	[0.4667, 0.9412, 0.5, 0.6667, 0.4667, 0.3333]
weighted_calibration_error	flat	[0.2179, 0.3961, 0.0693, 0.1661, 0.2476, 0.21]
margin_bias	regressing	[-1.333, -1.882, -2.786, -3.5, -2.533, -3.067]
team_run_error_on_losses	regressing	[5.0, 3.0, 7.0, 8.25, 7.125, 6.4]

Stage	Winner hits	Accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
historical_ml	11/15	73.3%	2.939	4.011	3.878
variance_applied	9/15	60%	2.933	4.133	3.733
enhanced_prediction	5/15	33.3%	3.067	4	4.667
embedded_savant_run_environment	5/15	33.3%	3.133	4.267	4.533
fundamental_edge_target_review	5/15	33.3%	3.133	4.267	4.533
capped_target	5/15	33.3%	3.133	4.267	4.533
simulation_result	5/15	33.3%	3.133	4.267	4.533
published_final	5/15	33.3%	3.133	4.267	4.533

Transition	Δ accuracy	Δ hits	Δ team-run MAE	Δ margin MAE	Games whose winner/tie changed
historical_ml → variance_applied	-0.1333	-2	-0.0061	-0.1444	ATL@WAS: ATL → TIE; NYM@TB: TB → TIE; SF@PIT: SF → TIE; STL@LAD: LAD → TIE
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction	-0.2667	-4	0.1334	0.9334	ATL@WAS: TIE → ATL; DET@MIN: DET → MIN; NYM@TB: TIE → TB; OAK@TEX: OAK → TEX; PHI@ARI: ARI → PHI; SEA@BOS: SEA → BOS; SF@PIT: TIE → PIT; STL@LAD: TIE → LAD; TOR@CLE: TOR → CLE
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment	0	0	0.0666	-0.1334
embedded_savant_run_environment → fundamental_edge_target_review	0	0	0	0
fundamental_edge_target_review → capped_target	0	0	0	0
capped_target → simulation_result	0	0	0	0
simulation_result → published_final	0	0	0	0

Game	Outcome	Raw model	Calibrated	Governor	Score coherence	Published	Explanation
ATL@WAS	hit	0.5085	0.5082	0.5082	0.5466	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
BAL@COL	miss	0.551	0.5499	0.5499	0.5675	0.5573	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CHW@HOU	hit	0.5085	0.5082	0.5082	0.5466	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
DET@MIN	miss	0.6241	0.6196	0.6196	0.6023	0.5591	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
MIA@KC	hit	0.5469	0.5458	0.5458	0.5654	0.5556	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
MIL@CHC	hit	0.5085	0.5082	0.5082	0.5466	0.5396	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
NYM@TB	miss	0.551	0.5499	0.5499	0.5675	0.5487	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
NYY@LAA	hit	0.5803	0.5773	0.5773	0.5812	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
OAK@TEX	miss	0.628	0.6233	0.6233	0.6041	0.56	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
PHI@ARI	miss	0.5552	0.554	0.554	0.5695	0.5301	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SD@CIN	miss	0.5714	0.5696	0.5696	0.5773	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SEA@BOS	miss	0.5061	0.5059	0.5059	0.5454	0.5197	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SF@PIT	miss	0.5228	0.5223	0.5223	0.5536	0.5456	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
STL@LAD	miss	0.5943	0.591	0.591	0.588	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
TOR@CLE	miss	0.6456	0.6394	0.6394	0.6547	0.5838	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail

Sides analyzed	Broke on pitching	Broke on offense	Both	Variance	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj
30	7	6	2	15	0.72	0.3

Slate	Games	Winner acc	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj	Sides broke on pitching	Sides broke on offense
20260905	15	0.533	-1.17	-0.07	2	6
20260904	16	0.625	-0.23	-0.44	5	12
20260903	9	0.556	0.24	-0.83	4	6
20260902	15	0.333	—	—
20260901	15	0.467	—	—
20260831	12	0.667	—	—
20260830	14	0.500	—	—
20260829	17	0.941	—	—
20260828	15	0.467	—	—

Game	Pred margin	Actual margin	Pred − actual
ATL@WAS	1	9	-8
BAL@COL	2	1	1
CHW@HOU	1	2	-1
DET@MIN	1	5	-4
MIA@KC	1	3	-2
MIL@CHC	2	4	-2
NYM@TB	1	6	-5
NYY@LAA	2	3	-1
OAK@TEX	1	7	-6
PHI@ARI	1	1	0
SD@CIN	1	4	-3
SEA@BOS	1	5	-4
SF@PIT	1	1	0
STL@LAD	1	2	-1
TOR@CLE	1	11	-10

ATL@WASHIT

Predicted: ATL 5-4 (conf -0.06, lean)Actual: ATL 9-0Brier 0.221total bias +0

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 8; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.476, recent -0.098, pitcher -0.013, composite -0.494
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.470
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

ATL offense under-projected by 4
WAS offense over-projected by 4
Brad Lord (WAS) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
ATL	Grant Holmes	2 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 9 outs	-2
WAS	Brad Lord	3 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 10 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×0.977 / away×0.99; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL RF): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.54]
Sean Murphy (ATL C): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.42]
James Wood (WAS RF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Matt Olson (ATL 1B): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Daylen Lile (WAS LF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]

Starter miss: Brad Lord (WAS) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 5.40 (0 ER in 10 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

Per-pitch matchup fields are not populated in the current feeds, so this is reconstructed from the settled box: each starter's workload-adjusted ERA, the bullpen share behind him, and the opposing lineup's real production against its projection, with the hitters who beat that projection named.

AWAY pitching

Grant Holmes (ATL) threw 9 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (-3.6 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 2 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 6 runs / 8 hits (-6 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Brad Lord (WAS) threw 10 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (-5.4 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 9 runs on 11 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Ronald Acuña Jr.: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.54 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.362, elite - real projection error
Sean Murphy: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI [+1.42 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.275, weak - a good day, not a model error
Mike Yastrzemski: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.308, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
ATL	Grant Holmes (Starter)	9 / 15	0 / 3.6 (-3.60)	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 1	1 / 4	venue away: 2.98 vs 4.8 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (strong) · 27 prior appearances this season
ATL	Didier Fuentes (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 4	0 / 13.5 (-13.50)	0 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 3
WAS	Brad Lord (Starter)	10 / 15	0 / 5.4 (-5.40)	0 / 3	2 / 4	0 / 0	1 / 1	6 / 5	venue home: 3.38 vs 3.18 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (strong) · 33 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
ATL	Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF)	5 / 5	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.54	0.362 elite	projection too low
ATL	Sean Murphy (C)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	4 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.42	0.275 weak	good day
WAS	James Wood (RF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.417 elite	bad day
ATL	Matt Olson (1B)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	4 / 1	-1.11	0.355 elite	bad day
WAS	Daylen Lile (LF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.329 above average	bad day
ATL	Michael Harris II (CF)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-1.07	0.341 elite	bad day
WAS	Yohandy Morales (1B)	3 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 0	1 / 2	-0.93	0.398 elite	bad day
WAS	CJ Abrams (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.328 above average	bad day
ATL	Mike Yastrzemski (LF)	5 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.308 average	no signal
WAS	Keibert Ruiz (C)	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.78	0.286 below average	projection too high
ATL	Ha-Seong Kim (SS)	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.216 weak	good day
ATL	Drake Baldwin (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.367 elite	—
ATL	Austin Riley (3B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.298 below average	—
WAS	Abimelec Ortiz (DH)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.294 below average	—
ATL	Ozzie Albies (2B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.33	0.284 below average	—
WAS	Dylan Crews (CF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.307 average	—
WAS	Andrés Chaparro (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.354 elite	—
WAS	Nasim Nuñez (SS)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.267 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.476	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.098	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.013	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.494	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.18-4.52	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.18-4.52	5-5	-0.66	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	5-4	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
ATL	Sean Murphy	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 2.63
ATL	Drake Baldwin	batter / DH	better	predicted_SO 2.07
WAS	Yohandy Morales	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_R -2
ATL	Michael Harris II	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.89
WAS	James Wood	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 1.658
ATL	Mike Yastrzemski	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.36
WAS	Daylen Lile	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.209
ATL	Matt Olson	batter / 1B	better	predicted_SO -1.087

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ATL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	ATL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ronald Acuña Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Sean Murphy: RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Yastrzemski: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ha-Seong Kim: AB current=3 box=4	ATL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=6, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=10).	WAS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Abimelec Ortiz: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrés Chaparro: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Yohandy Morales: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Keibert Ruiz: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Daylen Lile: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nasim Nuñez: BB current=0 box=1	WAS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

BAL@COLMISS

Predicted: BAL 7-5 (conf -0.11, moderate)Actual: COL 5-6Brier 0.311total bias +1

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.11 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias +1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.952, recent -0.768, pitcher +0.085, composite -0.888
confidence pipeline reached 0.550 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.443
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Trevor Rogers (BAL) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (2 vs 5)
committed to BAL at 0.11 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
BAL	Trevor Rogers	5 ER / 17 outs	2 ER / 20 outs	-3
COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	3 ER / 14 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×1.061 / away×0.976; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jake McCarthy (COL LF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.42]
Luis Robert Jr. (BAL LF): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.95]
Blaze Alexander (BAL 2B): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Samuel Basallo (BAL C): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Cole Carrigg (COL CF): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.61]

Starter miss: Trevor Rogers (BAL) posted 2.70 ERA vs projected 7.94 (2 ER in 20 outs); he faced a strong offense (opponent run factor 1.06, bucket average).

What to do: Consider raising context.opponent_strength_weight; validate across the rolling window before promotion.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Trevor Rogers (BAL) threw 20 outs, 2 ER = 2.7 ERA against a projected 7.94 ERA (-5.24 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 10 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jake McCarthy: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.42 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.319, average - a good day, not a model error
Cole Carrigg: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.61 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - real projection error
Hunter Goodman: 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.324, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) threw 18 outs, 3 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 5.79 ERA (-1.29 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 10 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 6 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Blaze Alexander: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.356, elite - real projection error
Samuel Basallo: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.322, above average - real projection error
Jackson Holliday: 2-for-6, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.303, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
BAL	Trevor Rogers (Starter)	20 / 17	2.7 / 7.94 (-5.24)	2 / 5	6 / 5	0 / 4	0 / 1	11 / 4	venue away: 4.53 vs 4.05 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.06 (average) · 25 prior appearances this season
BAL	Andrew Kittredge (Closer)	2 / 3	13.5 / 0 (+13.50)	1 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
BAL	Rico Garcia (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
BAL	Yennier Cano (Setup Man)	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
COL	Tomoyuki Sugano (Starter)	18 / 14	4.5 / 5.79	3 / 3	6 / 4	0 / 2	1 / 1	4 / 3	venue home: 5 vs 5.46 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 24 prior appearances this season
COL	Jimmy Herget (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 7	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2	1 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
COL	Jake McCarthy (LF)	4 / 5	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.42	0.319 average	no signal
BAL	Luis Robert Jr. (LF)	5 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.95	0.321 above average	bad day
BAL	Blaze Alexander (2B)	5 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.356 elite	projection too low
BAL	Samuel Basallo (C)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.322 above average	projection too low
COL	Cole Carrigg (CF)	5 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.61	0.323 above average	projection too low
BAL	Jackson Holliday (DH)	6 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.303 below average	—
BAL	Gunnar Henderson (SS)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.316 average	—
BAL	Colton Cowser (CF)	5 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.321 above average	—
COL	Connor Norby (3B)	5 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.301 below average	—
COL	Jordan Beck (RF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.243 weak	—
COL	Ryan Ritter (2B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.21 weak	—
BAL	Dylan Beavers (RF)	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.304 below average	—
COL	Hunter Goodman (C)	5 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	0.31	0.324 above average	—
COL	Adael Amador (DH)	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.15	0.261 weak	—
COL	TJ Rumfield (1B)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.334 above average	—
BAL	Coby Mayo (3B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.319 average	—
BAL	Pete Alonso (1B)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.392 elite	—
COL	Ezequiel Tovar (SS)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.278 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.952	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.768	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.085	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.888	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.84-3.65	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.557	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.84-3.65	6-4	-0.192	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-4	6-5	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	7-5	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-5	7-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-5	7-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-5	7-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
BAL	Coby Mayo	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 2.36
BAL	Luis Robert Jr.	batter / LF	better	predicted_BB 1.618
COL	Jake McCarthy	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.57
BAL	Samuel Basallo	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.51
COL	Adael Amador	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
COL	Jimmy Herget	pitcher / Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	better	predicted_IP 1.1
BAL	Colton Cowser	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 1.09
COL	TJ Rumfield	batter / 1B	better	predicted_H 1.08

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BAL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=6, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=4).	BAL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jackson Holliday: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Robert Jr.: AB current=5 box=2, BB current=1 box=2; Samuel Basallo: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Dylan Beavers: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=4; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=6).	COL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Connor Norby: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jordan Beck: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Adael Amador: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Ryan Ritter: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1; Jake McCarthy: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	COL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CHW@HOUHIT

Predicted: HOU 5-6 (conf +0.06, lean)Actual: HOU 0-2Brier 0.221total bias +9

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 9; total bias +9
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.484, recent -0.050, pitcher +0.103, composite +0.127
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.530
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 9 (11 vs 2)
CHW offense over-projected by 5
HOU offense over-projected by 4
Davis Martin (CHW) allowed 5 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 5)
Hayden Wesneski (HOU) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CHW	Davis Martin	5 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 17 outs	-5
HOU	Hayden Wesneski	3 ER / 16 outs	0 ER / 21 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×1.089 / away×0.986; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Munetaka Murakami (CHW 1B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Chase Meidroth (CHW 2B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Tristan Peters (CHW CF): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Miguel Vargas (CHW 3B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Andrew Benintendi (CHW DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: Davis Martin (CHW) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 9.00 (0 ER in 17 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (5.32 ERA there vs 3.20 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Davis Martin (CHW) threw 17 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 9 ERA (-9 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 6 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Daulton Varsho: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error
Cam Smith: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.319, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Hayden Wesneski (HOU) threw 21 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 5.06 ERA (-5.06 ERA error) only 6 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 3 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Tristan Peters: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.319, average - a good day, not a model error
Drew Romo: 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.262, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
CHW	Davis Martin (Starter)	17 / 15	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 5	5 / 4	0 / 1	1 / 3	3 / 7	venue away: 5.32 vs 3.2 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.09 (average) · 24 prior appearances this season
HOU	Hayden Wesneski (Starter)	21 / 16	0 / 5.06 (-5.06)	0 / 3	1 / 5	0 / 1	2 / 1	5 / 3	venue home: 4.2 vs 3.57 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.99 (average) · 6 prior appearances this season
HOU	Josh Hader (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
CHW	Munetaka Murakami (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 2	-1.26	0.35 elite	bad day
CHW	Chase Meidroth (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.292 below average	projection too high
CHW	Tristan Peters (CF)	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1.09	0.319 average	no signal
CHW	Miguel Vargas (3B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.386 elite	bad day
CHW	Andrew Benintendi (DH)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.31 average	no signal
HOU	Yordan Alvarez (DH)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.48	0.45 elite	—
CHW	Braden Montgomery (RF)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.329 above average	—
CHW	Colson Montgomery (SS)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.307 average	—
HOU	Taylor Trammell (LF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.285 below average	—
HOU	Jose Altuve (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.272 weak	—
CHW	Drew Romo (C)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.262 weak	—
HOU	LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.278 weak	—
HOU	Daulton Varsho (CF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.292 below average	—
HOU	Cam Smith (RF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.33	0.319 average	—
HOU	Jeremy Peña (SS)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.326 above average	—
CHW	Sam Antonacci (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	-0.14	0.342 elite	—
HOU	Isaac Paredes (3B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0	0.32 average	—
HOU	Christian Vázquez (C)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.238 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.484	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.05	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.103	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.127	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.01-5.14	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.01-5.14	4-5	-0.13	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	5-6	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	5-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	5-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	5-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	5-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
HOU	Yordan Alvarez	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 2.36
HOU	Jeremy Peña	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 2.034
HOU	LaMonte Wade Jr.	batter / 1B	better	predicted_BB 1.59
CHW	Sam Antonacci	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB 1.538
CHW	Munetaka Murakami	batter / 1B	better	predicted_SO -1.485
CHW	Andrew Benintendi	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.35
HOU	Jose Altuve	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB -1.28
HOU	Daulton Varsho	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.24

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHW
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=9).	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).	CHW
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Braden Montgomery: BB current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chase Meidroth: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Drew Romo: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=6; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	HOU
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeremy Peña: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; LaMonte Wade Jr.: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Christian Vázquez: AB current=3 box=4	HOU
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

DET@MINMISS

Predicted: MIN 4-5 (conf +0.12, moderate)Actual: DET 11-6Brier 0.313total bias -8

Root cause: Run environment far higher than projected (under-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 8; total bias -8
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.002, recent +1.010, pitcher -0.033, composite +0.362
confidence pipeline reached 0.620 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.559
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 8 (9 vs 17)
DET offense under-projected by 7
Drew Anderson (DET) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)
committed to MIN at 0.12 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
DET	Drew Anderson	4 ER / 13 outs	1 ER / 17 outs	-3
MIN	Dean Kremer	2 ER / 15 outs	4 ER / 12 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.012 / away×1.044; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Max Clark (DET CF): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.53]
Eduardo Valencia (DET C): 2-for-6, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
John Peck (DET SS): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 3 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
Kody Clemens (MIN 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Ryan Jeffers (MIN C): 1-for-6, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.95]

Starter miss: Drew Anderson (DET) posted 1.59 ERA vs projected 8.31 (1 ER in 17 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (3.18 ERA there vs 1.96 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Drew Anderson (DET) threw 17 outs, 1 ER = 1.59 ERA against a projected 8.31 ERA (-6.72 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 14 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Brooks Lee: 3-for-6, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.274, weak - a good day, not a model error
Josh Bell: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - a good day, not a model error
Trevor Larnach: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.329, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Dean Kremer (MIN) threw 12 outs, 4 ER = 9 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (5.4 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 12 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 10 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Max Clark: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+2.53 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.321, above average - real projection error
Eduardo Valencia: 2-for-6, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.318, average - a good day, not a model error
John Peck: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 3 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.379, elite - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
DET	Drew Anderson (Starter)	17 / 13	1.59 / 8.31 (-6.72)	1 / 4	3 / 6	0 / 2	2 / 3	5 / 2	venue away: 3.18 vs 1.96 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 45 prior appearances this season
DET	Jacob Waguespack (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 3	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0
DET	Kyle Finnegan (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 0
DET	Tyler Holton (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
DET	Kenley Jansen (Closer)	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1
MIN	Dean Kremer (Starter)	12 / 15	9 / 3.6 (+5.40)	4 / 2	6 / 7	0 / 0	2 / 2	5 / 5	venue home: 4.73 vs 6.53 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.04 (average) · 12 prior appearances this season
MIN	A.J. Minter (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez (Closer)	5 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1
MIN	Jeff Hoffman (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
DET	Max Clark (CF)	4 / 4	3 / 1	3 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	2.53	0.321 above average	projection too low
DET	Eduardo Valencia (C)	6 / 3	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	1.25	0.318 average	no signal
DET	John Peck (SS)	5 / 4	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.25	0.379 elite	projection too low
MIN	Kody Clemens (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-1.07	0.341 elite	bad day
MIN	Ryan Jeffers (C)	6 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.95	0.356 elite	bad day
MIN	Brooks Lee (3B)	6 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.274 weak	good day
DET	Kevin McGonigle (3B)	6 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.78	0.35 elite	bad day
MIN	Walker Jenkins (CF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	3 / 0	-0.78	0.253 weak	projection too high
MIN	Luke Keaschall (RF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.315 average	no signal
DET	Hao-Yu Lee (2B)	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.6	0.301 below average	projection too high
DET	Brett Callahan (LF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.342 elite	—
DET	Zach McKinstry (RF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.282 weak	—
MIN	Josh Bell (DH)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.333 above average	—
MIN	Kaelen Culpepper (SS)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.32 average	—
DET	Colt Keith (1B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.335 above average	—
DET	Riley Greene (DH)	6 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-0.33	0.367 elite	—
MIN	Trevor Larnach (LF)	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	0.329 above average	—
MIN	Royce Lewis (1B)	6 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.316 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.002	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	1.01	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.033	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.362	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.43-3.35	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.559	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.43-3.35	5-3	0.077	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	4-5	3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIN	Kody Clemens	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 3.421
DET	Eduardo Valencia	batter / C	boosted	predicted_H 2.64
DET	Hao-Yu Lee	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.69
DET	Riley Greene	batter / DH	worse	predicted_BB 1.474
DET	John Peck	batter / SS	worse	predicted_H 1.47
MIN	Ryan Jeffers	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.46
MIN	Kaelen Culpepper	batter / SS	worse	predicted_H -1.25
DET	Colt Keith	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 1.138

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	DET
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	DET
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Eduardo Valencia: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Brett Callahan: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; John Peck: H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Max Clark: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	DET
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; SO: current=6, sim=4).	MIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Trevor Larnach: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kaelen Culpepper: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	MIN
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

MIA@KCHIT

Predicted: MIA 5-4 (conf -0.11, moderate)Actual: MIA 9-6Brier 0.197total bias -6

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.11 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias -6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.383, recent +0.066, pitcher -0.119, composite -0.636
confidence pipeline reached 0.546 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.444
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 6 (9 vs 15)
MIA offense under-projected by 4
Eury Pérez (MIA) allowed 4 more ER than projected (6 vs 2)
Noah Cameron (KC) allowed 4 more ER than projected (4 vs 0)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIA	Eury Pérez	2 ER / 16 outs	6 ER / 14 outs	4
KC	Noah Cameron	0 ER / 19 outs	4 ER / 15 outs	4

Decision internals: run factors home×0.931 / away×1.05; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Javier Sanoja (MIA 3B): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.56]
Carter Jensen (KC C): 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Salvador Perez (KC DH): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Kyle Stowers (MIA 1B): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Jakob Marsee (MIA CF): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Starter miss: Eury Pérez (MIA) posted 11.57 ERA vs projected 3.38 (6 ER in 14 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (4.05 ERA there vs 2.81 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Eury Pérez (MIA) threw 14 outs, 6 ER = 11.57 ERA against a projected 3.38 ERA (8.19 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 9 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Carter Jensen: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.304, below average - a good day, not a model error
Salvador Perez: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.308, average - a good day, not a model error
Michael Massey: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.306, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Noah Cameron (KC) threw 15 outs, 4 ER = 7.2 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (7.2 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 11 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Javier Sanoja: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.56 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.287, below average - a good day, not a model error
Kyle Stowers: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error
Jakob Marsee: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.305, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
MIA	Eury Pérez (Starter)	14 / 16	11.57 / 3.38 (+8.19)	6 / 2	9 / 2	3 / 2	3 / 0	3 / 7	venue away: 4.05 vs 2.81 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 24 prior appearances this season
MIA	Calvin Faucher (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0
MIA	Michael Petersen (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2
KC	Noah Cameron (Starter)	15 / 19	7.2 / 0 (+7.20)	4 / 0	5 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 4	7 / 11	venue home: 4.79 vs 3.62 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.05 (average) · 26 prior appearances this season
KC	Nate Pearson (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
KC	Alex Lange (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	18 / 27 (-9.00)	2 / 2	2 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
MIA	Javier Sanoja (3B)	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1.56	0.287 below average	good day
KC	Carter Jensen (C)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1.4	0.304 below average	good day
KC	Salvador Perez (DH)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.26	0.308 average	no signal
MIA	Kyle Stowers (1B)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.07	0.335 above average	projection too low
MIA	Jakob Marsee (CF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.93	0.305 average	no signal
MIA	Jared Serna (2B)	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.294 below average	good day
KC	Vinnie Pasquantino (1B)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.325 above average	bad day
MIA	Otto Lopez (SS)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.62	0.324 above average	projection too low
MIA	Agustín Ramírez (DH)	5 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.275 weak	—
KC	Kyle Isbel (CF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.264 weak	—
KC	Michael Massey (2B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.306 average	—
KC	Nick Loftin (3B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.35	0.297 below average	—
KC	John Rave (LF)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.33	0.324 above average	—
KC	Jac Caglianone (RF)	5 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.31	0.357 elite	—
MIA	Heriberto Hernández (LF)	4 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.17	0.353 elite	—
MIA	Joe Mack (C)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.289 below average	—
MIA	Esteury Ruiz (RF)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.292 below average	—
KC	Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.383 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.383	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.066	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.119	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.636	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.63-4.2	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.556	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.63-4.2	5-4	0.569	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	5-4	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIA	Jakob Marsee	batter / CF	better	predicted_SO 2.138
MIA	Jared Serna	batter / 2B	better	predicted_H 2
KC	Noah Cameron	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
MIA	Otto Lopez	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.92
MIA	Agustín Ramírez	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.7
KC	Vinnie Pasquantino	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.57
KC	Nick Loftin	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 1.402
KC	Bobby Witt Jr.	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.227

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	KC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=11).	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=9).	KC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; John Rave: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Vinnie Pasquantino: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Isbel: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=7, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=13).	MIA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Agustín Ramírez: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Stowers: 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jared Serna: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Javier Sanoja: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0	MIA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

MIL@CHCHIT

Predicted: MIL 6-4 (conf -0.08, lean)Actual: MIL 9-5Brier 0.212total bias -4

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias -4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.106, recent +0.354, pitcher -0.062, composite -0.466
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.460
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 4 (10 vs 14)
MIL offense under-projected by 3
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) allowed 3 more ER than projected (5 vs 2)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIL	Jacob Misiorowski	2 ER / 18 outs	5 ER / 12 outs	3
CHC	David Peterson	6 ER / 12 outs	6 ER / 11 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.951 / away×1.013; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jackson Chourio (MIL LF): 4-for-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 1.72]
Brice Turang (MIL 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Cooper Pratt (MIL SS): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Michael Busch (CHC 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Matt Shaw (CHC 2B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.62]

Starter miss: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) posted 11.25 ERA vs projected 3.00 (5 ER in 12 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) threw 12 outs, 5 ER = 11.25 ERA against a projected 3 ERA (8.25 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Matt Shaw: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

David Peterson (CHC) threw 11 outs, 6 ER = 14.73 ERA against a projected 13.5 ERA (1.23 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 12 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jackson Chourio: 4-for-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.72 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.334, above average - real projection error
Cooper Pratt: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error
Andrew Vaughn: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.336, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
MIL	Jacob Misiorowski (Starter)	12 / 18	11.25 / 3 (+8.25)	5 / 2	5 / 7	1 / 0	4 / 1	5 / 8	venue away: 1.86 vs 1.62 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.95 (strong) · 25 prior appearances this season
MIL	Aaron Ashby (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
MIL	Trevor Megill (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1
CHC	David Peterson (Starter)	11 / 12	14.73 / 13.5	6 / 6	7 / 11	1 / 1	4 / 2	4 / 7	venue home: 6.31 vs 4.73 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.01 (strong) · 27 prior appearances this season
CHC	Jacob Webb (Closer)	1 / 6	54 / 0 (+54.00)	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1
CHC	Trent Thornton (Setup Man)	2 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
MIL	Jackson Chourio (LF)	6 / 6	4 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.72	0.334 above average	projection too low
MIL	Brice Turang (2B)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.335 above average	bad day
MIL	Cooper Pratt (SS)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.8	0.313 average	no signal
CHC	Michael Busch (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.328 above average	bad day
CHC	Matt Shaw (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.62	0.307 average	no signal
MIL	Andrew Vaughn (1B)	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.47	0.336 above average	—
MIL	Jake Bauers (RF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.373 elite	—
MIL	Gary Sánchez (DH)	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.344 elite	—
CHC	Nico Hoerner (SS)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.324 above average	—
CHC	Seiya Suzuki (DH)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	-0.45	0.339 above average	—
MIL	Joey Ortiz (3B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.295 below average	—
MIL	Luis Lara (CF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.313 average	—
CHC	Tyrone Taylor (RF)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.319 average	—
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)	3 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	-0.27	0.369 elite	—
MIL	William Contreras (C)	5 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.17	0.333 above average	—
CHC	Alex Bregman (3B)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	4 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.318 average	—
CHC	Ian Happ (LF)	4 / 4	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.313 average	—
CHC	Miguel Amaya (C)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.289 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.106	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.354	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.062	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.466	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.4-2.15	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-2	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.54	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.4-2.15	5-2	-0.256	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-2	6-5	-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-4	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-4	6-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-4	6-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-4	6-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIL	Joey Ortiz	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 2.606
MIL	William Contreras	batter / C	worse	predicted_H 2.32
CHC	Alex Bregman	batter / 3B	better	predicted_SO 2.281
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.2
MIL	Andrew Vaughn	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB 2.092
MIL	Jacob Misiorowski	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 2
MIL	Chad Patrick	pitcher / Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	worse	predicted_SO -2
CHC	Seiya Suzuki	batter / DH	better	predicted_SO 1.917

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).	CHC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: H current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Matt Shaw: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: H current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=40; H: current=9, sim=13; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10).	MIL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jackson Chourio: AB current=6 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Gary Sánchez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Joey Ortiz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Brice Turang: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: H current=1 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	MIL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

NYM@TBMISS

Predicted: TB 3-4 (conf +0.10, lean)Actual: NYM 10-4Brier 0.301total bias -7

Root cause: Run environment far higher than projected (under-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.10 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias -7
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.910, recent +0.652, pitcher +0.067, composite +0.990
confidence pipeline reached 0.550 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.549
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 7 (7 vs 14)
NYM offense under-projected by 7

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
NYM	Justin Hagenman	1 ER / 9 outs	1 ER / 9 outs	0
TB	Griffin Jax	2 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 8 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×1 / away×0.933; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Junior Caminero (TB 3B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Marcus Semien (NYM 2B): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]
Richie Palacios (TB 2B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Carson Benge (NYM RF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Bo Bichette (NYM 3B): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]

Starter miss: Griffin Jax (TB) posted 10.12 ERA vs projected 3.60 (3 ER in 8 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Justin Hagenman (NYM) threw 9 outs, 1 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 3 ERA (0 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Richie Palacios: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.305, average - a good day, not a model error
Taylor Walls: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.249, weak - a good day, not a model error
Chandler Simpson: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.261, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Griffin Jax (TB) threw 8 outs, 3 ER = 10.12 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (6.52 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 10 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 6 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Marcus Semien: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.305, average - a good day, not a model error
Carson Benge: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.336, above average - real projection error
Bo Bichette: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
NYM	Justin Hagenman (Starter)	9 / 9	3 / 3	1 / 1	2 / 3	0 / 1	1 / 2	2 / 3	opp run factor 1 (average)
NYM	Daniel Duarte (Setup Man)	4 / 5	0 / 10.8 (-10.80)	0 / 2	0 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1
TB	Griffin Jax (Starter)	8 / 15	10.12 / 3.6 (+6.52)	3 / 2	7 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 10	venue home: 3.02 vs 3.32 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 29 prior appearances this season
TB	Bryan Baker (Closer)	3 / 5	0 / 5.4 (-5.40)	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
TB	Junior Caminero (3B)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.363 elite	bad day
NYM	Marcus Semien (2B)	3 / 4	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.11	0.305 average	no signal
TB	Richie Palacios (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.93	0.305 average	no signal
NYM	Carson Benge (RF)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.336 above average	projection too low
NYM	Bo Bichette (3B)	4 / 5	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.325 above average	projection too low
TB	Taylor Walls (SS)	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.64	0.249 weak	good day
TB	Liam Hicks (C)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.316 average	—
TB	Chandler Simpson (LF)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.261 weak	—
TB	Victor Mesa Jr. (RF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.311 average	—
NYM	Francisco Lindor (SS)	6 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.338 above average	—
NYM	A.J. Ewing (CF)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.317 average	—
TB	Jonathan Aranda (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.35 elite	—
TB	Cedric Mullins (CF)	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.267 weak	—
NYM	Juan Soto (LF)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.416 elite	—
TB	Yandy Díaz (DH)	3 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.02	0.355 elite	—
NYM	Mark Vientos (DH)	1 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.314 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.91	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.652	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.067	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.99	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.53-4.46	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.549	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.53-4.46	4-4	-0.931	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	3-4	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
NYM	Francisco Lindor	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 3.15
NYM	Justin Hagenman	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_IP 2.9
NYM	Juan Soto	batter / LF	boosted	predicted_RBI 2.45
NYM	Kodai Senga	pitcher / Closer	better	predicted_IP 2.1
TB	Richie Palacios	batter / 2B	better	predicted_2B 1.88
NYM	Bo Bichette	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.72
TB	Yandy Díaz	batter / DH	worse	predicted_H -1.45
TB	Liam Hicks	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.35

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYM
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=28; H: current=7, sim=1; 2B: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=14).	NYM
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mark Vientos: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christopher Morel: SO current=1 box=2; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=4; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Francisco Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=2, sim=1).	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	TB
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Junior Caminero: AB current=5 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: AB current=4 box=3, HBP current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Cedric Mullins: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Richie Palacios: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	TB
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

NYY@LAAHIT

Predicted: NYY 4-2 (conf -0.06, lean)Actual: NYY 6-3Brier 0.221total bias -3

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias -3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.334, recent -0.694, pitcher -0.021, composite -1.312
confidence pipeline reached 0.577 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.470
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 3 (6 vs 9)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
NYY	Cam Schlittler	0 ER / 19 outs	1 ER / 24 outs	1
LAA	Reid Detmers	2 ER / 18 outs	1 ER / 21 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.934 / away×0.955; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Zach Neto (LAA SS): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Spencer Jones (NYY CF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Heliot Ramos (NYY RF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Vaughn Grissom (LAA 1B): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Cody Bellinger (NYY LF): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Cam Schlittler (NYY) threw 24 outs, 1 ER = 1.12 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (1.12 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 4 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 7 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Vaughn Grissom: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error
Moisés Ballesteros: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.291, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Reid Detmers (LAA) threw 21 outs, 1 ER = 1.29 ERA against a projected 3 ERA (-1.71 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Cody Bellinger: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.342, elite - real projection error
Paul Goldschmidt: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error
Amed Rosario: 1-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.312, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
NYY	Cam Schlittler (Starter)	24 / 19	1.12 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	9 / 6	venue away: 1.14 vs 3.41 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 28 prior appearances this season
NYY	David Bednar (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 0
LAA	Reid Detmers (Starter)	21 / 18	1.29 / 3	1 / 2	6 / 6	0 / 0	0 / 1	8 / 6	venue home: 3.36 vs 3.8 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.95 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season
LAA	Ben Joyce (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0
LAA	Ryan Watson (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
LAA	Zach Neto (SS)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.305 average	no signal
NYY	Spencer Jones (CF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	4 / 1	-1.4	0.329 above average	bad day
NYY	Heliot Ramos (RF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.326 above average	bad day
LAA	Vaughn Grissom (1B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.09	0.316 average	no signal
NYY	Cody Bellinger (LF)	5 / 5	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.94	0.342 elite	projection too low
LAA	Moisés Ballesteros (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.291 below average	good day
LAA	Wade Meckler (RF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.312 average	no signal
NYY	Paul Goldschmidt (1B)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.313 average	—
NYY	Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.294 below average	—
LAA	Oswald Peraza (3B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.271 weak	—
LAA	Christian Moore (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.238 weak	—
LAA	Mike Trout (CF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.376 elite	—
NYY	Amed Rosario (3B)	5 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.312 average	—
NYY	Ben Rice (DH)	5 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.378 elite	—
NYY	José Caballero (SS)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.28 weak	—
NYY	Ali Sánchez (C)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.246 weak	—
LAA	Jose Siri (LF)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.307 average	—
LAA	Travis d'Arnaud (C)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.253 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.334	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.694	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.021	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.312	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.67-3.3	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-3	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-2	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-2	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-2	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-2	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.67-3.3	5-3	0.636	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	4-3	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	4-2	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-2	4-2	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-2	4-2	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-2	4-2	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
NYY	Cam Schlittler	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 4
LAA	Reid Detmers	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 3
NYY	José Caballero	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 2.57
NYY	David Bednar	pitcher / Closer	worse	predicted_SO -2
NYY	Spencer Jones	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.857
LAA	Jose Siri	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
NYY	Heliot Ramos	batter / RF	better	predicted_AB 1.33
LAA	Vaughn Grissom	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.269

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYY
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=6).	LAA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Moisés Ballesteros: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jose Siri: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Oswald Peraza: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Moore: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Zach Neto: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).	NYY
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Amed Rosario: 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Paul Goldschmidt: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ben Rice: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	NYY
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

OAK@TEXMISS

Predicted: TEX 4-5 (conf +0.12, moderate)Actual: OAK 9-2Brier 0.314total bias -2

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 8; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.975, recent +0.398, pitcher +0.057, composite +0.942
confidence pipeline reached 0.623 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.560
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: 1 structural defect(s) on the saved artifact; see the per-game file-integrity table (this is a file check, not why the pick missed)

Quantified contributing factors

OAK offense under-projected by 5
TEX offense over-projected by 3
committed to TEX at 0.12 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
OAK	Jacob Lopez	1 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	1
TEX	Cody Bradford	3 ER / 15 outs	5 ER / 12 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.04 / away×0.982; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Henry Bolte (OAK RF): 3-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 3.13]
Alika Williams (OAK SS): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.73]
Ezequiel Duran (TEX CF): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.54]
Jake Burger (TEX 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Zack Gelof (OAK LF): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.38]

Starter miss: Cody Bradford (TEX) posted 11.25 ERA vs projected 5.40 (5 ER in 12 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Jacob Lopez (OAK) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 1.8 ERA (1.2 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 8 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Ezequiel Duran: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.54 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.306, average - a good day, not a model error
Justin Foscue: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.331, above average - real projection error
Danny Jansen: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.25, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Cody Bradford (TEX) threw 12 outs, 5 ER = 11.25 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (5.85 ERA error) only 5 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 9 runs on 14 hits and 5 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Henry Bolte: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI [+3.13 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.311, average - a good day, not a model error
Alika Williams: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.73 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.245, weak - a good day, not a model error
Zack Gelof: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.38 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
OAK	Jacob Lopez (Starter)	18 / 15	3 / 1.8	2 / 1	6 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 3	7 / 5	venue away: 4.17 vs 5.11 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.04 (weak) · 22 prior appearances this season
OAK	Hogan Harris (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 20.25 (-20.25)	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 0
TEX	Cody Bradford (Starter)	12 / 15	11.25 / 5.4 (+5.85)	5 / 3	7 / 3	3 / 2	1 / 1	3 / 8	venue home: 1.86 vs 4.32 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (weak) · 5 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
OAK	Henry Bolte (RF)	4 / 5	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	4 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	3.13	0.311 average	no signal
OAK	Alika Williams (SS)	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.73	0.245 weak	good day
TEX	Ezequiel Duran (CF)	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.54	0.306 average	no signal
TEX	Jake Burger (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-1.4	0.312 average	no signal
OAK	Zack Gelof (LF)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1.38	0.316 average	no signal
OAK	Jonah Heim (1B)	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.292 below average	good day
TEX	Justin Foscue (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.331 above average	projection too low
TEX	Corey Seager (SS)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.351 elite	bad day
OAK	Michael Stefanic (3B)	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.372 elite	bad day
OAK	Jeff McNeil (2B)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.307 average	—
TEX	Wyatt Langford (LF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.313 average	—
TEX	Danny Jansen (C)	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.25 weak	—
TEX	Brandon Nimmo (RF)	2 / 5	1 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.45	0.353 elite	—
OAK	Denzel Clarke (CF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.2 weak	—
TEX	Elias Díaz (DH)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.31	0.278 weak	—
OAK	Brian Serven (C)	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.29	0.308 average	—
OAK	Lawrence Butler (DH)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0	0.324 above average	—
TEX	Cody Freeman (3B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.231 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.975	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.398	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.057	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.942	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.63-4.07	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.63-4.07	5-4	-0.438	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	4-5	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TEX	Corey Seager	batter / SS	worse	predicted_BB 2.462
OAK	Jeff McNeil	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB -1.89
OAK	Henry Bolte	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -1.86
TEX	Brandon Nimmo	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H -1.62
OAK	Michael Stefanic	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 1.545
TEX	Danny Jansen	batter / C	better	predicted_H 1.54
TEX	Justin Foscue	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
TEX	Ezequiel Duran	batter / CF	better	predicted_AB 1.461

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
warning	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count row for Cody Bradford differs from pitching box score: hits_allowed/H: summary=3, box=2; batters_faced/BF: summary=19, box=18.	TEX Cody Bradford
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	OAK
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=10).	OAK
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lawrence Butler: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jonah Heim: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Stefanic: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brian Serven: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Denzel Clarke: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jeff McNeil: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=4, sim=3).	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7).	TEX
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Wyatt Langford: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=5 box=4, H current=2 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Elias Díaz: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Cody Freeman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	TEX
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

PHI@ARIMISS

Predicted: PHI 5-4 (conf -0.06, lean)Actual: ARI 0-1Brier 0.281total bias +8

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 8; total bias +8
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.481, recent -0.794, pitcher +0.018, composite -0.604
confidence pipeline reached 0.554 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.470
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: 1 structural defect(s) on the saved artifact; see the per-game file-integrity table (this is a file check, not why the pick missed)

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 8 (9 vs 1)
PHI offense over-projected by 5
ARI offense over-projected by 3
Andrew Painter (PHI) allowed 4 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 4)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
PHI	Andrew Painter	4 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 21 outs	-4
ARI	Taylor Clarke	2 ER / 18 outs	0 ER / 5 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.018 / away×1; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Kyle Schwarber (PHI 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Corbin Carroll (ARI RF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Gabriel Moreno (ARI DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Bryson Stott (PHI 3B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Bryan De La Cruz (PHI RF): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]

Starter miss: Andrew Painter (PHI) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 7.20 (0 ER in 21 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Andrew Painter (PHI) threw 21 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-7.2 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 2 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 5 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Taylor Clarke (ARI) at a projected 3 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 3 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Bryan De La Cruz: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.281, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
PHI	Andrew Painter (Starter)	21 / 15	0 / 7.2 (-7.20)	0 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 2	6 / 7	venue away: 5.76 vs 6.28 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (average) · 20 prior appearances this season
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan (Setup Man)	3 / 4	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
PHI	Kyle Schwarber (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.365 elite	bad day
ARI	Corbin Carroll (RF)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.73	0.342 elite	bad day
ARI	Gabriel Moreno (DH)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.366 elite	bad day
PHI	Bryson Stott (3B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.327 above average	bad day
PHI	Bryan De La Cruz (RF)	3 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.281 weak	good day
PHI	Luis Arraez (2B)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.307 average	—
PHI	J.T. Realmuto (C)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.323 above average	—
PHI	Trea Turner (SS)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.294 below average	—
PHI	Brandon Marsh (LF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.306 average	—
ARI	Nolan Arenado (3B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.282 weak	—
ARI	Geraldo Perdomo (SS)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.33	0.327 above average	—
PHI	Bryce Harper (DH)	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0.02	0.393 elite	—
PHI	Justin Crawford (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.281 weak	—
ARI	Lars Nootbaar (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.346 elite	—
ARI	Tim Tawa (1B)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.304 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.481	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.794	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.018	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.604	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.57-5.65	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.57-5.65	4-6	0.083	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	5-4	3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
PHI	Luis Arraez	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB -2.11
PHI	Andrew Painter	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_H 2
PHI	Bryan De La Cruz	batter / RF	better	predicted_AB 1.5
ARI	James McCann	batter / C	worse	predicted_RBI 1.49
ARI	Geraldo Perdomo	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.459
PHI	Justin Crawford	batter / CF	boosted	predicted_SO 1.431
PHI	Bryson Stott	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 1.341
PHI	Trea Turner	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.29

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
warning	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count row for Andrew Painter differs from pitching box score: hits_allowed/H: summary=4, box=3; batters_faced/BF: summary=21, box=20.	PHI Andrew Painter
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ARI
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10).	ARI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ildemaro Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; James McCann: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1	ARI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=4, sim=3).	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; RBI: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=11).	PHI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Schwarber: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Justin Crawford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	PHI
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SD@CINMISS

Predicted: SD 5-4 (conf -0.06, lean)Actual: CIN 3-7Brier 0.281total bias -1

Root cause: Small edge on the losing side

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias -1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.679, recent -0.186, pitcher -0.043, composite -0.695
confidence pipeline reached 0.570 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.470
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

CIN offense under-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SD	Casey Mize	3 ER / 15 outs	4 ER / 12 outs	1
CIN	Brandon Williamson	3 ER / 13 outs	3 ER / 16 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.933 / away×0.976; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

JJ Bleday (CIN LF): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.85]
Ty France (SD 1B): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.73]
Juan Brito (CIN 2B): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.73]
Jackson Merrill (SD CF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Sal Stewart (CIN 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]

Starter miss: Casey Mize (SD) posted 9.00 ERA vs projected 5.40 (4 ER in 12 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (3.90 ERA there vs 2.98 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Casey Mize (SD) threw 12 outs, 4 ER = 9 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (3.6 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 10 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

JJ Bleday: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.85 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.349, elite - real projection error
Juan Brito: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.73 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.242, weak - a good day, not a model error
Héctor Rodríguez: 1-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.275, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Brandon Williamson (CIN) threw 16 outs, 3 ER = 5.06 ERA against a projected 6.23 ERA (-1.17 ERA error) only 6 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 8 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Ty France: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.73 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.331, above average - real projection error
Xander Bogaerts: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.321, above average - real projection error
Austin Hays: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.27, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
SD	Casey Mize (Starter)	12 / 15	9 / 5.4 (+3.60)	4 / 3	5 / 3	2 / 0	1 / 2	4 / 5	venue away: 3.9 vs 2.98 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 21 prior appearances this season
CIN	Brandon Williamson (Starter)	16 / 13	5.06 / 6.23	3 / 3	7 / 4	1 / 1	2 / 5	5 / 3	venue home: 10.03 vs 3.31 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 6 prior appearances this season
CIN	Emilio Pagán (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0
CIN	Pierce Johnson (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
CIN	Tejay Antone (Setup Man)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
CIN	JJ Bleday (LF)	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.85	0.349 elite	projection too low
SD	Ty France (1B)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.73	0.331 above average	projection too low
CIN	Juan Brito (2B)	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.73	0.242 weak	good day
SD	Jackson Merrill (CF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-1.4	0.336 above average	bad day
CIN	Sal Stewart (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-1.4	0.351 elite	bad day
SD	Xander Bogaerts (SS)	3 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0.94	0.321 above average	projection too low
CIN	Héctor Rodríguez (RF)	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.275 weak	good day
SD	Luis Campusano (DH)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.335 above average	bad day
CIN	Tyler Stephenson (C)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.78	0.335 above average	bad day
CIN	Dane Myers (CF)	4 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.61	0.311 average	no signal
SD	Ethan Salas (C)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.199 weak	—
SD	Jake Cronenworth (3B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.272 weak	—
CIN	Matt McLain (SS)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.307 average	—
CIN	Edwin Arroyo (3B)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.291 below average	—
SD	Austin Hays (RF)	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.27 weak	—
CIN	Elly De La Cruz (DH)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.17	0.364 elite	—
SD	Fernando Tatis Jr. (2B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.16	0.374 elite	—
SD	Samad Taylor (LF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.309 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.679	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.186	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.043	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.695	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.94-3.01	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.94-3.01	5-3	0.072	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	5-4	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CIN	Héctor Rodríguez	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 2.524
SD	Ty France	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 2.44
SD	Jackson Merrill	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.15
SD	Samad Taylor	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 1.68
CIN	Juan Brito	batter / 2B	better	predicted_H 1.438
SD	Luis Campusano	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO 1.245
CIN	Edwin Arroyo	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 1.159
CIN	Elly De La Cruz	batter / DH	deboosted	predicted_H -1.077

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CIN
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=10).	CIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Elly De La Cruz: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Juan Brito: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Dane Myers: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Edwin Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).	SD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Xander Bogaerts: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Ethan Salas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Austin Hays: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Campusano: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Samad Taylor: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	SD
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SEA@BOSMISS

Predicted: BOS 4-5 (conf +0.04, toss_up)Actual: SEA 8-3Brier 0.27total bias -2

Root cause: Genuine toss-up that flipped

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.04 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.852, recent +0.274, pitcher +0.035, composite +0.795
confidence pipeline reached 0.506 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.520
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

SEA offense under-projected by 4

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SEA	Bryce Miller	2 ER / 16 outs	1 ER / 14 outs	-1
BOS	Patrick Sandoval	4 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 12 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.969 / away×0.933; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Roman Anthony (BOS DH): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.54]
Weston Wilson (SEA 3B): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.27]
Wilyer Abreu (BOS RF): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.23]
Nick Sogard (BOS 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
J.P. Crawford (SEA SS): 3-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Bryce Miller (SEA) threw 14 outs, 1 ER = 1.93 ERA against a projected 3.38 ERA (-1.45 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 1 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 11 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Roman Anthony: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.54 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.361, elite - real projection error
Wilyer Abreu: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.23 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.347, elite - real projection error
Caleb Durbin: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.288, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Patrick Sandoval (BOS) threw 12 outs, 3 ER = 6.75 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-0.45 ERA error) only 9 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 12 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Weston Wilson: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.27 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.26, weak - a good day, not a model error
J.P. Crawford: 3-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.327, above average - real projection error
Jhonny Pereda: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.343, elite - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
SEA	Bryce Miller (Starter)	14 / 16	1.93 / 3.38	1 / 2	7 / 3	0 / 0	1 / 2	3 / 8	venue away: 5.09 vs 3.14 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.97 (average) · 17 prior appearances this season
SEA	José A. Ferrer (Setup Man)	1 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1
BOS	Patrick Sandoval (Starter)	12 / 15	6.75 / 7.2	3 / 4	5 / 6	0 / 2	3 / 2	2 / 2	venue home: 3.54 vs 4.74 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 9 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
BOS	Roman Anthony (DH)	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.54	0.361 elite	projection too low
SEA	Weston Wilson (3B)	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.27	0.26 weak	good day
BOS	Wilyer Abreu (RF)	4 / 5	3 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.23	0.347 elite	projection too low
BOS	Nick Sogard (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.327 above average	bad day
SEA	J.P. Crawford (SS)	3 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.94	0.327 above average	projection too low
SEA	Taylor Ward (RF)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.333 above average	bad day
SEA	Jhonny Pereda (C)	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.343 elite	projection too low
SEA	Randy Arozarena (LF)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.64	0.349 elite	bad day
SEA	Julio Rodríguez (CF)	5 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.336 above average	—
SEA	Cole Young (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.316 average	—
BOS	Jarren Duran (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.296 below average	—
BOS	Connor Wong (C)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.286 below average	—
BOS	Caleb Durbin (3B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.288 below average	—
BOS	Mickey Gasper (1B)	5 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.15	0.372 elite	—
SEA	Dominic Canzone (DH)	3 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.04	0.356 elite	—
SEA	Josh Naylor (1B)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.313 average	—
BOS	Ceddanne Rafaela (CF)	3 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.282 weak	—
BOS	Trevor Story (SS)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.251 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.852	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.274	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.035	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.795	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.58-4.14	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.52	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.58-4.14	5-4	-0.559	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	4-5	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
BOS	Roman Anthony	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 2.848
SEA	Julio Rodríguez	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.23
BOS	Nick Sogard	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 2.186
SEA	Randy Arozarena	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 2.01
BOS	Wilyer Abreu	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -1.94
SEA	Josh Naylor	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB -1.82
SEA	Weston Wilson	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
SEA	Dominic Canzone	batter / DH	worse	predicted_H -1.23

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BOS
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SEA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).	BOS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Caleb Durbin: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ceddanne Rafaela: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Trevor Story: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	BOS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	SEA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Taylor Ward: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Cole Young: R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Josh Naylor: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Weston Wilson: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jhonny Pereda: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	SEA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SF@PITMISS

Predicted: PIT 5-6 (conf +0.09, lean)Actual: SF 5-4Brier 0.298total bias +2

Root cause: Several errors of similar size

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.09 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.451, recent -0.240, pitcher +0.146, composite +0.690
confidence pipeline reached 0.522 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.546
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SF	Landen Roupp	1 ER / 16 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	0
PIT	Bubba Chandler	4 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 15 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.097 / away×0.951; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Brandon Lowe (PIT 2B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 2.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Rafael Devers (SF 1B): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Jung Hoo Lee (SF RF): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Turner Hill (SF LF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.64]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Landen Roupp (SF) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 1.69 ERA (0.11 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 10 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Bryan Reynolds: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.45 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.36, elite - a good day, not a model error
Nick Gonzales: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.327, above average - a good day, not a model error
Rafael Flores Jr.: 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.339, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Bubba Chandler (PIT) threw 15 outs, 3 ER = 5.4 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-1.8 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Rafael Devers: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.34, elite - real projection error
Bryce Eldridge: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.357, elite - a good day, not a model error
Shay Whitcomb: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.251, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
SF	Landen Roupp (Starter)	15 / 16	1.8 / 1.69	1 / 1	2 / 6	0 / 0	2 / 2	4 / 6	venue away: 4.44 vs 4.04 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.1 (strong) · 26 prior appearances this season
SF	Dylan Smith (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 2
SF	Jason Foley (Setup Man)	3 / 1	0 / 54 (-54.00)	0 / 2	1 / 3	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1
PIT	Bubba Chandler (Starter)	15 / 15	5.4 / 7.2	3 / 4	5 / 8	1 / 0	3 / 0	4 / 4	venue home: 4.2 vs 4.39 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.95 (weak) · 26 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
PIT	Brandon Lowe (2B)	4 / 6	1 / 2	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-1.4	0.322 above average	bad day
SF	Rafael Devers (1B)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0.8	0.34 elite	projection too low
SF	Jung Hoo Lee (RF)	5 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.78	0.315 average	no signal
SF	Turner Hill (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.64	0.346 elite	bad day
PIT	Oneil Cruz (CF)	4 / 6	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.352 elite	—
PIT	Jared Triolo (SS)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.289 below average	—
PIT	Bryan Reynolds (DH)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.45	0.36 elite	—
PIT	Nick Gonzales (3B)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.327 above average	—
PIT	Spencer Horwitz (1B)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.312 average	—
PIT	Rafael Flores Jr. (C)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.339 above average	—
SF	Bryce Eldridge (DH)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.31	0.357 elite	—
SF	Shay Whitcomb (3B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.251 weak	—
SF	Drew Gilbert (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.328 above average	—
PIT	Esmerlyn Valdez (RF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	3 / 1	-0.14	0.331 above average	—
SF	Christian Koss (SS)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.24 weak	—
SF	Drew Cavanaugh (C)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.324 above average	—
SF	Nate Furman (2B)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.213 weak	—
PIT	Jake Mangum (LF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.283 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.451	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.24	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.146	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.69	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.48-4.58	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.546	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.48-4.58	5-5	0.901	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	5-6	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	5-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	5-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	5-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	5-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SF	Rafael Devers	batter / 1B	better	predicted_H 1.92
SF	Nate Furman	batter / 2B	boosted	predicted_H 1.78
PIT	Brandon Lowe	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB -1.74
PIT	Oneil Cruz	batter / CF	deboosted	predicted_RBI 1.64
SF	Turner Hill	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.538
SF	Shay Whitcomb	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
SF	Drew Gilbert	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.433
PIT	Spencer Horwitz	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.365

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PIT
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SF
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=39, sim=37; H: current=10, sim=11; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	PIT
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: AB current=6 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Esmerlyn Valdez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Oneil Cruz: AB current=6 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Spencer Horwitz: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Rafael Flores Jr.: H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	PIT
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=12).	SF
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Turner Hill: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Rafael Devers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Drew Gilbert: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Drew Cavanaugh: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1	SF
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

STL@LADMISS

Predicted: LAD 4-5 (conf +0.06, lean)Actual: STL 8-6Brier 0.281total bias -5

Root cause: Run environment far higher than projected (under-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias -5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.988, recent +0.249, pitcher +0.016, composite +0.820
confidence pipeline reached 0.591 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.530
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 5 (9 vs 14)
STL offense under-projected by 4

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
STL	Brycen Mautz	2 ER / 9 outs	3 ER / 3 outs	1
LAD	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	3 ER / 20 outs	4 ER / 21 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×1 / away×0.984; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Freddie Freeman (LAD 1B): 2-for-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.75]
Thomas Saggese (STL SS): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Shohei Ohtani (LAD DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Mookie Betts (LAD SS): 2-for-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Teoscar Hernández (LAD LF): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]

Starter miss: Brycen Mautz (STL) posted 27.00 ERA vs projected 6.00 (3 ER in 3 outs). Thin prior record (2 prior appearances this season): high projection uncertainty.

What to do: Reduce game confidence for starters the feed has little on (scale by prior appearances); prefer priors and validate any run-param change in shadow.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Brycen Mautz (STL) threw 3 outs, 3 ER = 27 ERA against a projected 6 ERA (21 ERA error) only 2 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 12 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 11 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Freddie Freeman: 2-for-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.75 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.374, elite - real projection error
Mookie Betts: 2-for-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.329, above average - real projection error
Teoscar Hernández: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) threw 21 outs, 4 ER = 5.14 ERA against a projected 4.05 ERA (1.09 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 3 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 7 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Thomas Saggese: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.311, average - a good day, not a model error
Leonardo Bernal: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.377, elite - real projection error
Nathan Church: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.283, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
STL	Brycen Mautz (Starter)	3 / 9	27 / 6 (+21.00)	3 / 2	2 / 3	1 / 0	3 / 2	0 / 1	opp run factor 1 (strong) · thin sample: 2 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
STL	Justin Bruihl (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 5	0 / 16.2 (-16.20)	0 / 3	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0
STL	Riley O'Brien (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2
STL	George Soriano (Setup Man)	3 / 3	18 / 0 (+18.00)	2 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0
STL	Ryne Stanek (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1
LAD	Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Starter)	21 / 20	5.14 / 4.05	4 / 3	5 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 0	8 / 7	venue home: 3.12 vs 1.94 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 24 prior appearances this season
LAD	Tanner Scott (Closer)	3 / 3	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1
LAD	Brock Stewart (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 1	18 / 0 (+18.00)	2 / 0	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
LAD	Freddie Freeman (1B)	2 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 1	1.75	0.374 elite	projection too low
STL	Thomas Saggese (SS)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.311 average	no signal
LAD	Shohei Ohtani (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	4 / 1	-1.4	0.401 elite	bad day
LAD	Mookie Betts (SS)	6 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	1.4	0.329 above average	projection too low
LAD	Teoscar Hernández (LF)	5 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.25	0.323 above average	projection too low
LAD	Miguel Rojas (2B)	3 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.78	0.312 average	no signal
STL	Leonardo Bernal (DH)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 2	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 2	0.62	0.377 elite	projection too low
STL	Jordan Walker (RF)	5 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.62	0.349 elite	bad day
STL	Bryan Torres (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.301 below average	—
STL	Iván Herrera (C)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.333 above average	—
STL	Nathan Church (CF)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.283 weak	—
STL	Alec Burleson (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.37 elite	—
LAD	Max Muncy (3B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.348 elite	—
STL	José Fermín (2B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.291 below average	—
STL	Nolan Gorman (3B)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 1	-0.33	0.275 weak	—
LAD	Tommy Edman (CF)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.316 average	—
LAD	Kyle Tucker (RF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.327 above average	—
LAD	Hunter Feduccia (C)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.319 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.988	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.249	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.016	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.82	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.58-5.48	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.58-5.48	5-5	-0.894	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	4-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
LAD	Hunter Feduccia	batter / C	better	predicted_H 2.76
LAD	Freddie Freeman	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 2.301
STL	Leonardo Bernal	batter / DH	worse	predicted_RBI -2
LAD	Teoscar Hernández	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 1.6
STL	Bryan Torres	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
LAD	Miguel Rojas	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
LAD	Tommy Edman	batter / CF	better	predicted_AB 1.404
LAD	Shohei Ohtani	batter / DH	worse	predicted_RBI 1.386

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAD
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	STL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=4).	LAD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Tommy Edman: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Hunter Feduccia: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1	LAD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=9).	STL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=2 box=0; José Fermín: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nathan Church: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Thomas Saggese: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2	STL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TOR@CLEMISS

Predicted: CLE 2-3 (conf +0.17, moderate)Actual: TOR 11-0Brier 0.341total bias -6

Root cause: Run environment far higher than projected (under-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.17 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 12; total bias -6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.556, recent +0.764, pitcher -0.079, composite +0.504
confidence pipeline reached 0.639 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.584
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 6 (5 vs 11)
TOR offense under-projected by 9
CLE offense over-projected by 3
committed to CLE at 0.17 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TOR	Dylan Cease	2 ER / 18 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-2
CLE	Joey Cantillo	2 ER / 15 outs	4 ER / 16 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×0.924 / away×1.003; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR 1B): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.18]
Kazuma Okamoto (TOR 3B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Angel Martínez (CLE LF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Andrés Giménez (TOR SS): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Alejandro Kirk (TOR C): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Joey Cantillo (CLE) posted 6.75 ERA vs projected 3.60 (4 ER in 16 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Dylan Cease (TOR) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 3 ERA (-3 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Chase DeLauter: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.61 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.343, elite - real projection error
Patrick Bailey: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.309, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Joey Cantillo (CLE) threw 16 outs, 4 ER = 6.75 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (3.15 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 9 runs on 12 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI [+2.18 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - real projection error
Andrés Giménez: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.269, weak - a good day, not a model error
Myles Straw: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.296, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
TOR	Dylan Cease (Starter)	18 / 18	0 / 3 (-3.00)	0 / 2	4 / 6	0 / 0	0 / 1	4 / 3	venue away: 1.67 vs 2.91 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.92 (weak) · 25 prior appearances this season
CLE	Joey Cantillo (Starter)	16 / 15	6.75 / 3.6 (+3.15)	4 / 2	9 / 4	1 / 1	2 / 2	6 / 2	venue home: 3.56 vs 3.81 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (weak) · 28 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
TOR	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	5 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2.18	0.333 above average	projection too low
TOR	Kazuma Okamoto (3B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-1.73	0.319 average	no signal
CLE	Angel Martínez (LF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-1.4	0.304 below average	projection too high
TOR	Andrés Giménez (SS)	3 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.94	0.269 weak	good day
TOR	Alejandro Kirk (C)	5 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.302 below average	projection too high
TOR	Myles Straw (LF)	3 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.8	0.296 below average	good day
CLE	Steven Kwan (CF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.8	0.321 above average	bad day
CLE	Travis Bazzana (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.299 below average	projection too high
CLE	José Ramírez (3B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.335 above average	bad day
CLE	Chase DeLauter (DH)	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.61	0.343 elite	projection too low
TOR	Nathan Lukes (RF)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.287 below average	—
CLE	Nathaniel Lowe (1B)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.335 above average	—
CLE	Jo Adell (RF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.325 above average	—
CLE	Angel Genao (SS)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.297 below average	—
CLE	Patrick Bailey (C)	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.309 average	—
TOR	Brett Bateman (CF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.282 weak	—
TOR	George Springer (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.306 average	—
TOR	Ernie Clement (2B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.266 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.556	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.764	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.079	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.504	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.48-3.44	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	2-4	0.584	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	2-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.48-3.44	4-3	0.04	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-3	2-4	3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	2-4	2-3	-1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-3	2-3	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-3	2-3	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-3	2-3	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CLE	José Ramírez	batter / 3B	better	predicted_H 1.97
CLE	Steven Kwan	batter / CF	better	predicted_2B 1.862
TOR	Brett Bateman	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.78
TOR	Alejandro Kirk	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.65
CLE	Jo Adell	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H -1.21
CLE	Patrick Bailey	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 1.169
TOR	Ernie Clement	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB -1.06
CLE	Angel Martínez	batter / LF	worse	predicted_H -1.01

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=3).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2; Chase DeLauter: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2).	TOR
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brett Bateman: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Alejandro Kirk: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; George Springer: 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Myles Straw: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0	TOR
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, and exactly which games it would help versus hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

Luna deep post-mortem (full)

> Coverage receipt: COMPLETE · 9/8 sections; 15/15 games; 8/8 causes; 6/6 sources

1. Evidence receipt and gaps

Source manifest

All seven manifest entries were reviewed as evidence records:

Source	Status	Size	Purpose
`prediction review` — `/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260902.json`	Loaded	372,146 bytes	Official outcomes and scoring errors
`forensic deep audit` — `/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260902.json`	Loaded	240,269 bytes	Probability, provenance, starter, and decision contracts
`continuous learning` — `/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260902.json`	Loaded	1,925,532 bytes	Pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage, score distribution, starter comparisons
`detailed report` — `/app/output/reports/detailed_20260902.html`	Loaded	352,626 bytes	Full game and simulation rendering
`ultra detailed player audit` — `/app/output/reports/20260902_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html`	Loaded	30,625,934 bytes	Player-level prediction trace
`structural audit` — `/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260902.html`	Loaded	1,878,790 bytes	Invariant findings
`integrity revision audit` — `/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260902_integrity_revision.html`	Missing	Not supplied	Post-Luna remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts

The missing integrity-revision audit is a genuine evidence gap. It prevents independent confirmation that any post-generation remediation or immutable revision process was correctly recorded.

Game coverage

All 15 expected games were reviewed:

ATL@WAS
BAL@COL
CHW@HOU
DET@MIN
MIA@KC
MIL@CHC
NYM@TB
NYY@LAA
OAK@TEX
PHI@ARI
SD@CIN
SEA@BOS
SF@PIT
STL@LAD
TOR@CLE

Coverage is complete according to the matrix:

Expected games: 15
Canonical artifacts loaded: 15
Continuous-learning games: 15
Forensic deep-audit games: 15
Structural audits completed: 15
Starter comparisons: 15
All games structurally audited: true

The slate was therefore fully covered, but it was not defect-free.

Internal gaps and contradictions

Missing integrity revision audit. The manifest marks the post-Luna immutable-revision proof as missing.
SF@PIT probability lineage defect. The causal register identifies one unexplained calibrated-to-published delta of at least two percentage points, affecting SF@PIT. Its published probability was 0.54559 versus calibrated probability 0.5223, a +2.329 percentage-point delta, with unexplained_material_delta: true.
MIA@KC minor lineage inconsistency. The record says “no recorded transformation explains the publication delta,” but marks unexplained_material_delta: false. The delta is only +0.9808 percentage points, below the material threshold, so this is a traceability warning rather than the critical SF-type defect.
Pipeline-stage accounting needs careful interpretation. variance_applied → enhanced_prediction reduced winner accuracy from 9/15 to 5/15, a four-hit regression. The transition lists nine direction changes, of which one improved ATL@WAS and five are explicitly classified as regressions; three additional changes were recoveries or non-loss changes. The causal register correctly focuses on the net four-hit degradation, but the full flip list must remain in the trace.
Player-level actuals are unavailable for all games where player_level_forensics.available is false. Player adjustments are recorded, but post-game player-level attribution cannot be independently verified for those games.
Structural-audit totals differ in composition by game. The slate total is 0 critical, 0 error, 2 warnings, and 110 informational findings. Two games carry warnings; the remainder pass structurally. This does not invalidate the model findings.

---

2. Executive diagnosis

Overall result

Winner accuracy: 5/15, 33.33%
Misses: 10/15
Mean team-run error on losses: 6.4 runs
Mean total-run bias on losses: −2.0 runs, indicating net underprediction of scoring among losses
Predicted margins: all 15 were two runs or less
Actual margins: 8/15 were four runs or greater
Mean predicted margin: 1.20
Mean actual margin: 4.27
Validated holdout run-model R²: home 0.0300, away 0.0214, total 0.0287
Published confidence calibration error: weighted absolute calibration error 0.2100

This was not merely a bad-score slate. The published winner layer also failed materially, and an intermediate model stage degraded winner direction.

Winner accuracy

The published system correctly selected five winners:

ATL@WAS
CHW@HOU
MIA@KC
MIL@CHC
NYY@LAA

It missed ten.

The historical ML stage would have selected 11/15 correctly. After variance_applied, accuracy fell to 9/15. After enhanced_prediction, it fell further to 5/15. All later stages remained at 5/15.

That makes the most important winner-direction finding the high-severity pipeline instability at variance_applied → enhanced_prediction. This is a material model/process risk, not an artifact issue.

Calibration quality

Published confidence was materially overconfident:

Bucket 0.50–0.55: average confidence 0.5334, observed hit rate 0.4000, calibration error +0.1334
Bucket 0.55–0.60: average confidence 0.5632, observed hit rate 0.2000, calibration error +0.3632
Combined weighted absolute calibration error: 0.2100 across 15 settled games

The two moderate-confidence buckets performed especially poorly. The evidence supports bounded empirical shrinkage experiments, but the causal register correctly warns against treating one slate as a stable calibration curve. Cross-slate evidence later establishes this as a persistent pattern.

No high-raw-probability cluster was present: threshold 0.65, games 0, hits 0.

Score accuracy

Score accuracy was the weakest broad model dimension.

Every published prediction had a margin of 1 or 2 runs.
Eight actual margins were at least 4 runs.
The largest underestimates were:
TOR@CLE: predicted margin 1, actual 11, error −10
ATL@WAS: predicted 1, actual 9, error −8
DET@MIN: predicted 1, actual 5, error −4
SEA@BOS: predicted 1, actual 5, error −4
NYM@TB: predicted 1, actual 6, error −5
OAK@TEX: predicted 1, actual 7, error −6

The score-margin compression finding is high severity because it is broad, repeated, and persistent across six prior slates in the trend record. It is not a justification for indiscriminately widening every forecast; it supports a bounded shadow experiment on registered variance parameters.

The low run-model R² confirms that exact scores are weakly supported by the current features. Winner and score systems should not be treated as equally reliable outputs.

Starter accuracy

Starter projections were mixed rather than uniformly defective.

Several games had meaningful starter ER errors:

CHW@HOU: Davis Martin −5 ER relative to projection
MIA@KC: Eury Pérez +4; Noah Cameron +4
PHI@ARI: Andrew Painter −4
ATL@WAS: Brad Lord −3
BAL@COL: Trevor Rogers −3
DET@MIN: Drew Anderson −3
MIL@CHC: Jacob Misiorowski +3

Other games had relatively accurate starter ER projections, with worst error only one run:

NYM@TB
NYY@LAA
SD@CIN
SEA@BOS
SF@PIT
STL@LAD

The lever tension was nearly balanced: pitcher-form reweighting helped seven games and risked hurting six. The evidence does not justify a broad pitcher-weight change today.

Artifact integrity

Artifact integrity was mostly sound but not clean:

Structural totals: 0 critical, 0 errors, 2 warnings, 110 informational findings
OAK@TEX: one pitch-count warning
PHI@ARI: one pitch-count warning
All other game audits: PASS with no warning or error
The missing integrity-revision audit remains a manifest-level gap
SF@PIT has a critical probability-lineage issue, which is an evidence/contract failure even though its structural game audit passed

The causal register must therefore be reconciled as follows:

Critical: unexplained probability publication delta

Severity: critical
Affected game: SF@PIT
Evidence: calibrated-to-published delta of +2.329 percentage points, with no recorded transformation
Action: block promotion until the pick-side math is traced and the missing transformation is recorded
Guardrail: do not assume the probability governor was bypassed until the pick-side calculation is reconstructed

High: artifact-integrity warning

Severity: high
Affected games: no winner-side attribution assigned
Evidence: 0 critical, 0 errors, 2 warnings, 110 informational findings
Action: reconcile the flagged stat/presentation contract
Guardrail: a warning indicates a display or contract problem; it does not prove the wrong pick

High: pipeline winner instability

Severity: high
Affected games named in the register: DET@MIN, OAK@TEX, PHI@ARI, SEA@BOS, TOR@CLE
Evidence: variance_applied → enhanced_prediction changed winner accuracy by −0.2667, or four hits
Action: list exact flips and retain before/after picks
Guardrail: a later recovery would not erase the intermediate regression

High: score-margin compression

Severity: high
Affected games: ATL@WAS, DET@MIN, NYM@TB, OAK@TEX, SD@CIN, SEA@BOS, TOR@CLE
Evidence: 15/15 predicted margins ≤2; 8/15 actual margins ≥4; mean margin 1.20 versus 4.27
Action: test tail coverage and margin MAE across recent out-of-sample slates
Guardrail: one blowout does not justify widening every score

High: single-slate calibration instability

Severity: high
Affected games: all 15
Evidence: weighted absolute calibration error 0.2100
Action: monitor the same buckets over rolling windows
Guardrail: do not infer a stable calibration curve from 15 games

High: weak run-model signal

Severity: high
Affected games: all 15
Evidence: home/away/total R² of 0.0300/0.0214/0.0287
Action: treat exact runs as low-confidence and investigate features/target
Guardrail: positive R² does not make exact scores reliable

Informational: complete audit coverage

Severity: info
Evidence: 15/15 structurally audited
Action: retain per-game audit receipts
Guardrail: coverage does not negate findings

Informational: simulation inertness

Severity: info in the causal register, but escalated across slates
Evidence: zero flip candidates and zero published flips
Action: measure simulation contribution and verify it is running
Guardrail: zero flips is not itself a defect and does not prove no score work occurred

---

3. Every game

Notation: edge is the absolute home-minus-away confidence distance; signed edge is home probability direction. “Path” lists the meaningful published score stages.

ATL@WAS — hit, correct winner/wrong score

Predicted: ATL 5, WAS 4; winner ATL
Actual: ATL 9, WAS 0; winner ATL
Published pick probability: ATL 0.530; home probability 0.470
Signed home-minus-away edge: −0.060; conviction: lean
Brier: 0.2209
Team-run error: 8
Total-run bias: 0
Starter lines:
Grant Holmes: projected 2 ER/15 outs; actual 0 ER/9 outs; ER error −2
Brad Lord: projected 3 ER/15 outs; actual 0 ER/10 outs; ER error −3
Edges: season −0.476; recent −0.098; pitcher −0.013; composite −0.494
Controls: governor applied; calibrated/governed probability 0.5082; recency guardrail applied; confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before publication controls; no volatility change
Score path: historical ML 5.84–3.65 → variance 6–4 → enhanced 6–5 → Savant/environment 7–5 → published 5–4
Player adjustments: none recorded
Audit: PASS; zero defects; seven informational notes; artifact not causal
Primary cause: none for winner
Secondary cause: starter projection and Atlanta offense/Washington run suppression were not captured in the score
Classification: correct winner/wrong score

BAL@COL — miss

Predicted: BAL 7, COL 5; winner BAL
Actual: BAL 5, COL 6; winner COL
Published pick probability: BAL 0.557335; home probability 0.443
Signed home-minus-away edge: −0.1147; conviction: moderate
Brier: 0.310622
Team-run error: 3
Total-run bias: +1
Starters:
Trevor Rogers: projected 5 ER/17 outs; actual 2 ER/20 outs; error −3
Tomoyuki Sugano: projected 3 ER/14 outs; actual 3 ER/18 outs; error 0
Edges: season −0.952; recent −0.768; pitcher +0.085; composite −0.888
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.5499; recency guardrail applied; confidence before later controls 0.550; no volatility change
Score path: 5.84–3.65 → 6–4 → 6–5 → 7–5 → 7–5 final
Player adjustments: 24 material changes; largest listed effects included Coby Mayo +2.36 predicted RBI, Luis Robert Jr. +1.618 BB, Jake McCarthy −1.57 AB, Samuel Basallo +1.51 RBI, and several Colorado/Baltimore lineup changes
Audit: PASS; no defects
Primary cause: wrong conviction side
Secondary cause: starter projection, especially Rogers’ three-ER overestimate
Note: the 0.11 edge was moderate, not near a coin flip, but it still did not warrant treating the call as high certainty

CHW@HOU — hit, correct winner/wrong score

Predicted: CHW 5, HOU 6; winner HOU
Actual: CHW 0, HOU 2; winner HOU
Published pick probability: HOU 0.530
Signed home-minus-away edge: +0.060; conviction: lean
Brier: 0.2209
Team-run error: 9
Total-run bias: +9
Starters:
Davis Martin: projected 5 ER/15 outs; actual 0 ER/17 outs; error −5
Hayden Wesneski: projected 3 ER/16 outs; actual 0 ER/21 outs; error −3
Edges: season −0.484; recent −0.050; pitcher +0.103; composite +0.127
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.5082; recency guardrail applied; no volatility change
Score path: 5.0–3.0 → 5–4 → 5–6 → 5–6 final
Player adjustments: none recorded
Audit: PASS; no defects
Primary cause: none for winner
Secondary cause: both starters outperformed ER projections and both offenses were overprojected
Classification: correct winner/wrong score

DET@MIN — miss

Predicted: DET 4, MIN 5; winner MIN
Actual: DET 11, MIN 6; winner DET
Published pick probability: MIN 0.559116
Signed home-minus-away edge: +0.1182; conviction: moderate
Brier: 0.312611
Team-run error: 8
Total-run bias: −8
Starters:
Drew Anderson: projected 4 ER/13 outs; actual 1 ER/17 outs; error −3
Dean Kremer: projected 2 ER/15 outs; actual 4 ER/12 outs; error +2
Edges: season +0.002; recent +1.010; pitcher −0.033; composite +0.362
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.6196; recency guardrail applied; pre-control pipeline 0.620; supported blowout-margin expansion
Score path: 5.43–3.35 → 5–3 → 4–5 → 4–5 final
Player adjustments: 22 material changes; notable effects included Kody Clemens +3.421 RBI, Eduardo Valencia +2.64 hits, and negative/positive changes across Riley Greene, John Peck, Ryan Jeffers, Kaelen Culpepper, and Colt Keith
Audit: PASS; no defects
Primary cause: run environment under/under-dispersion
Secondary cause: wrong conviction side
Earliest model regression: enhanced prediction changed the call from DET to MIN after variance had not yet made that winner-direction error
Classification: wrong winner and wrong score

MIA@KC — hit, correct winner/wrong score

Predicted: MIA 5, KC 4; winner MIA
Actual: MIA 9, KC 6; winner MIA
Published pick probability: MIA 0.555608
Signed home-minus-away edge: −0.1112; conviction: moderate
Brier: 0.197484
Team-run error: 6
Total-run bias: −6
Starters:
Eury Pérez: projected 2 ER/16 outs; actual 6 ER/14 outs; error +4
Noah Cameron: projected 0 ER/19 outs; actual 4 ER/15 outs; error +4
Edges: season −0.383; recent +0.066; pitcher −0.119; composite −0.636
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.5458; no recency guardrail; no volatility change
Score path: 3.53–4.46 → 4–4 → 5–4 → 5–4 final
Player adjustments: none recorded
Audit: PASS; no defects
Primary cause: none for winner
Secondary cause: both starters were substantially worse than projected and Miami’s offense exceeded projection
Lineage note: publication delta +0.9808 percentage points is described as unexplained, but correctly marked non-material

MIL@CHC — hit, solid correct call but wrong score

Predicted: MIL 6, CHC 4; winner MIL
Actual: MIL 9, CHC 5; winner MIL
Published pick probability: MIL 0.539627
Signed home-minus-away edge: −0.0793; conviction: lean
Brier: 0.211943
Team-run error: 4
Total-run bias: −4
Starters:
Jacob Misiorowski: projected 2 ER/18 outs; actual 5 ER/12 outs; error +3
David Peterson: projected 6 ER/12 outs; actual 6 ER/11 outs; error 0
Edges: season −0.106; recent +0.354; pitcher −0.062; composite −0.466
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.5082; recency guardrail applied; no volatility change
Score path: 5.48–4.58 → 5–5 → 5–6 → 5–6 final
Player adjustments: none recorded
Audit: PASS; no defects
Primary cause: none
Secondary cause: Milwaukee offense was underprojected and Misiorowski allowed three more ER than projected
Classification: correct winner; solid_correct_call label, although exact score was not exact

NYM@TB — miss

Predicted: NYM 3, TB 4; winner TB
Actual: NYM 10, TB 4; winner NYM
Published pick probability: TB 0.548734
Signed home-minus-away edge: +0.0975; conviction: lean
Brier: 0.301109
Team-run error: 7
Total-run bias: −7
Starters:
Justin Hagenman: projected 1 ER/9 outs; actual 1 ER/9 outs; error 0
Griffin Jax: projected 2 ER/15 outs; actual 3 ER/8 outs; error +1
Edges: season +0.910; recent +0.652; pitcher +0.067; composite +0.990
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.5499; recency guardrail applied; no volatility change
Score path: 3.53–4.46 → 4–4 → 3–4 → 3–4 final
Player adjustments: 23 material changes; notable changes included Francisco Lindor strikeout adjustment, Justin Hagenman +2.9 IP, Juan Soto +2.45 RBI, Kodai Senga +2.1 IP, and multiple TB/NYM lineup changes
Audit: PASS; no defects
Primary cause: run environment under/under-dispersion
Secondary cause: none; starter projections were comparatively accurate
Classification: wrong winner and wrong score

NYY@LAA — hit, solid correct call but wrong score

Predicted: NYY 4, LAA 2; winner NYY
Actual: NYY 6, LAA 3; winner NYY
Published pick probability: NYY 0.530
Signed home-minus-away edge: −0.060; conviction: lean
Brier: 0.2209
Team-run error: 3
Total-run bias: −3
Starters:
Cam Schlittler: projected 0 ER/19 outs; actual 1 ER/24 outs; error +1
Reid Detmers: projected 2 ER/18 outs; actual 1 ER/21 outs; error −1
Edges: season −1.334; recent −0.694; pitcher −0.021; composite −1.312
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.5773; recency guardrail applied; supported blowout-margin expansion
Score path: 4.58–4.14 → 5–4 → 4–2 → 4–2 final
Player adjustments: none recorded
Audit: PASS; no defects
Primary cause: none
Secondary cause: total scoring was modestly underprojected
Classification: correct winner/wrong score

OAK@TEX — miss

Predicted: OAK 4, TEX 5; winner TEX
Actual: OAK 9, TEX 2; winner OAK
Published pick probability: TEX 0.560
Signed home-minus-away edge: +0.1200; conviction: moderate
Brier: 0.3136
Team-run error: 8
Total-run bias: −2
Starters:
Jacob Lopez: projected 1 ER/15 outs; actual 2 ER/18 outs; error +1
Cody Bradford: projected 3 ER/15 outs; actual 5 ER/12 outs; error +2
Edges: season +0.975; recent +0.398; pitcher +0.057; composite +0.942
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.6233; recency guardrail applied; supported blowout-margin expansion
Score path: 4.63–4.07 → 5–4 → 4–5 → 4–5 final
Player adjustments: 25 material changes; notable changes included Corey Seager −2.462 BB, Jeff McNeil −1.89 AB, Henry Bolte −1.86 AB, Brandon Nimmo −1.62 hits, Michael Stefanic +1.545 strikeouts, and several Texas/Oakland adjustments
Audit: WARNING, risk score 10
Finding: Cody Bradford pitch-count summary disagreed with the box score: H 3 versus 2 and BF 19 versus 18
Primary cause: wrong conviction side
Secondary causes: small starter projection error and OAK offense underprojection
Note: 0.12 is a moderate edge, not a near coin flip; it indicates meaningful but limited conviction

PHI@ARI — miss

Predicted: PHI 5, ARI 4; winner PHI
Actual: PHI 0, ARI 1; winner ARI
Published pick probability: PHI 0.530125
Signed home-minus-away edge: −0.0602; conviction: lean
Brier: 0.281033
Team-run error: 8
Total-run bias: +8
Starters:
Andrew Painter: projected 4 ER/15 outs; actual 0 ER/21 outs; error −4
Taylor Clarke: projected 2 ER/18 outs; actual 0 ER/5 outs; error −2
Edges: season −0.481; recent −0.794; pitcher +0.018; composite −0.604
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.5540; recency guardrail applied; no volatility change
Score path: 3.57–5.65 → 4–6 → 5–4 → 5–4 final
Player adjustments: 22 material changes; notable effects included Luis Arraez −2.11 AB, Andrew Painter +2.0 hits, Bryan De La Cruz +1.5 AB, and multiple Philadelphia/Arizona strikeout, RBI, and playing-time changes
Audit: WARNING, risk score 10
Finding: Andrew Painter pitch-count summary disagreed with the box score: H 4 versus 3 and BF 21 versus 20
Primary cause: starter projection, especially Painter’s four-ER overestimate
Secondary cause: run environment over/over-dispersion
Classification: wrong winner and wrong score

SD@CIN — miss

Predicted: SD 5, CIN 4; winner SD
Actual: SD 3, CIN 7; winner CIN
Published pick probability: SD 0.530
Signed home-minus-away edge: −0.060; conviction: lean
Brier: 0.2809
Team-run error: 5
Total-run bias: −1
Starters:
Casey Mize: projected 3 ER/15 outs; actual 4 ER/12 outs; error +1
Brandon Williamson: projected 3 ER/13 outs; actual 3 ER/16 outs; error 0
Edges: season −0.679; recent −0.186; pitcher −0.043; composite −0.695
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.5696; recency guardrail applied; supported blowout-margin expansion
Score path: 4.94–3.01 → 5–3 → 5–4 → 5–4 final
Player adjustments: 22 material changes; notable effects included Héctor Rodríguez +2.524 RBI, Ty France +2.44 RBI, Jackson Merrill −2.15 AB, and several Cincinnati adjustments
Audit: PASS; no defects
Primary cause: lean-side miss
Secondary cause: Cincinnati offense underprojection
Classification: wrong winner and wrong score

SEA@BOS — miss

Predicted: SEA 4, BOS 5; winner BOS
Actual: SEA 8, BOS 3; winner SEA
Published pick probability: BOS 0.519697
Signed home-minus-away edge: +0.0394; conviction: toss-up
Brier: 0.270085
Team-run error: 6
Total-run bias: −2
Starters:
Bryce Miller: projected 2 ER/16 outs; actual 1 ER/14 outs; error −1
Patrick Sandoval: projected 4 ER/15 outs; actual 3 ER/12 outs; error −1
Edges: season +0.852; recent +0.274; pitcher +0.035; composite +0.795
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.5059; recency guardrail applied; no volatility change
Score path: 4.58–4.14 → 5–4 → 4–5 → 4–5 final
Player adjustments: 20 material changes; notable effects included Roman Anthony +2.848 RBI, Julio Rodríguez −2.23 AB, Randy Arozarena +2.01 RBI, and multiple Boston/Seattle playing-time and hitting adjustments
Audit: PASS; no defects
Primary cause: toss-up variance
Secondary cause: SEA offense underprojection
Classification: wrong winner and wrong score

SF@PIT — miss

Predicted: SF 5, PIT 6; winner PIT
Actual: SF 5, PIT 4; winner SF
Published pick probability: PIT 0.54559
Signed home-minus-away edge: +0.0912; conviction: lean
Brier: 0.297668
Team-run error: 2
Total-run bias: +2
Starters:
Landen Roupp: projected 1 ER/16 outs; actual 1 ER/15 outs; error 0
Bubba Chandler: projected 4 ER/15 outs; actual 3 ER/15 outs; error −1
Edges: season +0.451; recent −0.240; pitcher +0.146; composite +0.690
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.5223; no recency guardrail; no volatility change
Score path: 5.48–4.58 → 5–5 → 5–6 → 5–6 final
Player adjustments: 21 material changes; notable effects included Rafael Devers +1.92 hits, Nate Furman +1.78 hits, Brandon Lowe −1.74 AB, Oneil Cruz adjustment, and multiple strikeout/playing-time changes
Audit: PASS; no structural defects
Primary cause: mixed
Secondary cause: probability/publication lineage defect
Critical lineage finding: published 0.54559 versus calibrated 0.5223, a +2.329-point unexplained delta
Classification: wrong winner and wrong score, although score error was relatively small

STL@LAD — miss

Predicted: STL 4, LAD 5; winner LAD
Actual: STL 8, LAD 6; winner STL
Published pick probability: LAD 0.530
Signed home-minus-away edge: +0.060; conviction: lean
Brier: 0.2809
Team-run error: 5
Total-run bias: −5
Starters:
Brycen Mautz: projected 2 ER/9 outs; actual 3 ER/3 outs; error +1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: projected 3 ER/20 outs; actual 4 ER/21 outs; error +1
Edges: season +0.988; recent +0.249; pitcher +0.016; composite +0.820
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.5910; recency guardrail applied; supported blowout-margin expansion
Score path: 4.58–5.48 → 5–5 → 4–5 → 4–5 final
Player adjustments: 26 material changes; notable effects included Hunter Feduccia +2.76 hits, Freddie Freeman adjustment, Leonardo Bernal −2.0 RBI, and several STL/LAD hitting changes
Audit: PASS; no defects
Primary cause: run environment under/under-dispersion
Secondary cause: none formally assigned
Classification: wrong winner and wrong score

TOR@CLE — miss

Predicted: TOR 2, CLE 3; winner CLE
Actual: TOR 11, CLE 0; winner TOR
Published pick probability: CLE 0.583822
Signed home-minus-away edge: +0.1676; conviction: moderate
Brier: 0.340848, worst listed on the slate
Team-run error: 12, worst on the slate
Total-run bias: −6
Starters:
Dylan Cease: projected 2 ER/18 outs; actual 0 ER/18 outs; error −2
Joey Cantillo: projected 2 ER/15 outs; actual 4 ER/16 outs; error +2
Edges: season +0.556; recent +0.764; pitcher −0.079; composite +0.504
Controls: governor applied; calibrated 0.6394; recency guardrail applied; supported blowout-margin expansion
Score path: 4.48–3.44 → 4–3 → 2–4 → 2–3 final
Player adjustments: 22 material changes; notable effects included José Ramírez +1.97 hits, Steven Kwan +1.862 doubles, Brett Bateman −1.78 AB, Alejandro Kirk −1.65 AB, and several Cleveland/Toronto changes
Audit: PASS; no defects
Primary cause: run environment under/under-dispersion
Secondary cause: wrong conviction side
Classification: wrong winner and wrong score

---

4. Miss reconstruction

Earliest wrong-direction movement for every loss

Game	Earliest stage moving toward wrong result	Diagnosis
BAL@COL	Historical ML already favored BAL	Bad weighting/input balance or irreducible close-game variance; starter projection also overstated Rogers’ ER
DET@MIN	`enhanced_prediction`: DET → MIN	Bad weighting/process regression; recent/H2H/low-score logic overrode the prior direction. The 0.12 edge was moderate, not near coin-flip
NYM@TB	Historical ML already favored TB	Bad winner weighting or irreducible variance; score model severely underpredicted NYM offense
OAK@TEX	Historical ML slightly favored OAK, then `variance_applied` made it TEX and `enhanced_prediction` retained TEX	Earliest wrong direction: variance stage. Later enhancement preserved the error. The 0.12 edge was moderate
PHI@ARI	Historical ML favored ARI, then `variance_applied` moved to PHI and `enhanced_prediction` retained PHI	Earliest wrong direction: variance stage. Starter and low-run-environment errors worsened the miss
SD@CIN	Historical ML, variance, and enhanced stages all favored SD	Lean-side miss with modest starter and Cincinnati-offense error; likely variance/weighting plus irreducible outcome noise
SEA@BOS	Historical ML slightly favored SEA; `variance_applied` remained close, `enhanced_prediction` moved to BOS	Earliest clear wrong-direction stage: enhanced prediction. Toss-up variance was important; winner confidence was only 0.04
SF@PIT	Historical ML favored SF; variance produced a tie; enhancement moved to PIT	Earliest directional degradation began at variance through SF → tie, then enhancement completed the wrong-side move
STL@LAD	Historical ML favored LAD; variance produced a tie; enhancement restored LAD	Earliest movement away from the actual winner began at historical ML itself; variance did not create the final wrong side but did remove a correct historical direction
TOR@CLE	Historical ML favored TOR; variance preserved TOR; enhancement moved to CLE	Earliest wrong-direction stage: enhanced prediction. The later score environment did not recover it

Cause classification

Bad input / artifact: No evidence that missing or malformed artifacts caused the winner misses. OAK@TEX and PHI@ARI had pitch-count warnings, but both warnings are presentation/contract discrepancies and are not shown to have caused the picks.
Bad weighting/process: Strong evidence at variance_applied → enhanced_prediction, with a net four-hit winner regression. DET@MIN, OAK@TEX, PHI@ARI, SEA@BOS, and TOR@CLE are explicitly registered; the full transition also moved ATL, NYM, SF, and STL.
Calibration: Published confidence was broadly too high, especially in the 0.55–0.60 bucket. This amplified the cost of misses but did not by itself determine every wrong side.
Starter error: Material in BAL@COL, CHW@HOU, DET@MIN, MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, and PHI@ARI. Starter accuracy was comparatively good in NYM@TB, NYY@LAA, SD@CIN, SEA@BOS, SF@PIT, and STL@LAD.
Offense/bullpen miss: Offensive run projections failed repeatedly, especially ATL, DET, NYM, OAK, TOR, and Cincinnati. The records do not provide enough player-level actuals to assign bullpen-specific causation.
Run-environment miss: Broad under-dispersion/compressed tails affected at least ATL, DET, NYM, OAK, SD, SEA, STL, and TOR, with over-dispersion in PHI@ARI and CHW@HOU.
Irreducible variance: Most applicable to SEA@BOS, SF@PIT, and other low-edge games. It is not a sufficient explanation for the high-confidence TOR@CLE failure or the systematic margin compression.

Pipeline-stage quality across all stages

Stage	Winner accuracy	Winner hits	Team-run MAE	Margin MAE	Total-run MAE
historical_ml	73.33%	11	2.9394	3.8777	4.0109
variance_applied	60.00%	9	2.9333	3.7333	4.1333
enhanced_prediction	33.33%	5	3.0667	4.6667	4.0000
embedded_savant_run_environment	33.33%	5	3.1333	4.5333	4.2667
fundamental_edge_target_review	33.33%	5	3.1333	4.5333	4.2667
capped_target	33.33%	5	3.1333	4.5333	4.2667
simulation_result	33.33%	5	3.1333	4.5333	4.2667
published_final	33.33%	5	3.1333	4.5333	4.2667

Transitions:

Historical → variance:
Winner accuracy −2 hits
Margin MAE improved by 0.1444
Direction changes included ATL→tie, TB→tie, SF→tie, LAD→tie
Regression games explicitly identified: ATL@WAS and SF@PIT
Variance → enhanced:
Winner accuracy −4 hits
Margin MAE worsened by 0.9334
Team-run MAE worsened by 0.1334
Only ATL@WAS was listed as improved
Explicit regressions: DET@MIN, OAK@TEX, PHI@ARI, SEA@BOS, TOR@CLE
Enhanced → embedded Savant:
No winner-direction changes
Margin MAE improved slightly by 0.1334, but team-run and total-run MAE worsened
Embedded Savant through published final:
No winner changes
No score changes
Simulation produced zero winner flips

A later unchanged or recovered stage does not erase the enhanced-stage regression.

---

5. Cross-game counterfactuals

Lever tension: score variance multiplier/floor

Lever: score.variance_multiplier / score.variance_floor

Proposed direction: widen run distributions

Targets: Brier score and calibration error

Helps:

BAL@COL: lost a 0.11-confidence pick; wider tails could reduce overconfidence
DET@MIN: lost a 0.12-confidence pick; actual margin 5 versus predicted 1
OAK@TEX: lost a 0.12-confidence pick; actual margin 7 versus predicted 1
TOR@CLE: lost a 0.17-confidence pick; actual margin 11 versus predicted 1

Hurts: none listed in the slate-level tension record.

Net evidence: 4 helps, 0 hurts. This is favorable, but the counterfactual is mainly about distribution and calibration, not guaranteed winner improvement. It should be tested as a bounded shadow experiment.

Lever tension: pitcher form/prior weighting

Lever: player.pitcher.v4 form weights / player.pitcher_prior_games

Helps:

ATL@WAS
BAL@COL
CHW@HOU
DET@MIN
MIA@KC
MIL@CHC
PHI@ARI

Hurts or creates risk:

NYM@TB
NYY@LAA
SD@CIN
SEA@BOS
SF@PIT
STL@LAD

Net evidence: 7 helps versus 6 hurts. No broad move is supported. The lever risks disturbing several games where starter projection was already within one ER.

Lever tension: recent/season run-mean weighting

Lever: recent.* / season.* run-mean weighting

Helps or could reduce error in:

ATL@WAS
CHW@HOU
DET@MIN
MIA@KC
MIL@CHC
NYM@TB
OAK@TEX
PHI@ARI
SD@CIN
SEA@BOS
STL@LAD
TOR@CLE

Hurts or risks disturbing:

SF@PIT, where team-run error was only 2

Net evidence: 12 helps versus 1 hurts. This is favorable for run MAE and total-run MAE, but the cross-slate weak-R² finding argues for isolated training/backtesting rather than an immediate production weighting change.

One-game fixes that must not be made

Do not widen all scores solely because ATL@WAS or TOR@CLE was a blowout; the evidence is broader and persistent, but the fix must remain bounded.
Do not sharply increase pitcher recency weighting because of Painter, Rogers, or the Detroit/Minnesota starters; six other games would be put at risk.
Do not remove all matchup-recency or recent-form controls because several individual calls were wrong; those controls may be useful in other games.
Do not treat the 0.12 edge in DET@MIN or OAK@TEX as a coin flip. It is moderate conviction and should be calibrated downward if persistent, not discarded.
Do not promote the current pipeline while the SF@PIT probability delta remains untraced.
Do not force a simulation parameter change solely because there were zero flips; the registered action is diagnostic, not a production tuning request.

---

6. Data and contract defects

Audit findings by severity

Critical

No structural audit file reports a critical finding. However, the causal register contains one critical contract failure:

SF@PIT: unexplained +2.329 percentage-point calibrated-to-published probability delta.
Required action: reconstruct raw → calibrated → governor → score coherence/recency → published pick-side math and block promotion until reconciled.

Error

Structural audit error count: 0
No per-game structural error findings reported.

Warning

OAK@TEX — Cody Bradford pitch-count mismatch

Summary H 3 versus box H 2
Summary BF 19 versus box BF 18
Rule: PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH
Source: simulation
Risk score: 10

PHI@ARI — Andrew Painter pitch-count mismatch

Summary H 4 versus box H 3
Summary BF 21 versus box BF 20
Rule: PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH
Source: simulation
Risk score: 10

These are artifact/stat-contract defects, not demonstrated prediction causes.

Informational

110 informational findings across the slate
Complete structural coverage of all 15 games
Zero simulation winner flips
Per-game informational notes, typically seven or eight per clean game

Model defects versus presentation/artifact defects

Prediction-model/process defects

Enhanced prediction materially degraded winner direction: 9/15 to 5/15.
Run margins were compressed across all 15 games.
Run-model holdout R² was weak.
Confidence buckets were overconfident.
Simulation was inert for six consecutive slates and requires execution diagnostics.

Presentation/artifact/contract defects

SF@PIT missing probability transformation record: critical contract problem.
OAK@TEX and PHI@ARI pitch-count summary/box-score mismatches.
Missing integrity revision audit file.

The evidence does not support blaming the two pitch-count warnings for the misses.

Probability-lineage audit

The available lineage records contain the following fields:

Raw model pick probability
Calibrated pick probability
Governor input and output
Score-coherence probability
Recency guardrail status
Published probability
Transformation description
Unexplained-material-delta flag

Most games have a recorded transformation such as “score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail,” and the governor is marked applied.

Material bypass:

SF@PIT only: published 0.54559 versus calibrated 0.5223, +2.329 points, with no recorded transformation. This is a material unexplained delta and must be treated as a critical contract failure until traced.

Non-material traceability issue:

MIA@KC: published 0.555608 versus calibrated 0.5458, +0.981 points; the transformation text says no transformation explains it, but the flag is false. This should be corrected for completeness but is below the material threshold.

No other material unexplained publication delta is recorded.

---

7. Cross-slate persistence

The trend window covers six slates, with five prior slates loaded.

Escalated findings

These are established failures, not single-slate noise.

Score-margin compression

Consecutive slates: 3
Present now: yes
Incidence in six-slate window: 3
Target levers: score.variance_multiplier, score.variance_floor
Metric group: run model
Metrics harmed: team_run_mae, total_run_mae
Fix direction: widen run distributions

Simulation inertness

Consecutive slates: 6
Present now: yes
Incidence: 6
Target lever listed: simulation.allow_score
Parameter actionable: no
Metrics harmed: team_run_mae, total_run_mae
Fix direction: confirm the simulation module is running and not silently no-oping
Required action is code/diagnostic verification, not forced parameter tuning

Calibration instability

Consecutive slates: 3
Present now: yes
Incidence: 5
Target levers: confidence.empirical_max_weight, confidence.base_cap, confidence.moderate_cap
Metrics harmed: Brier score and calibration error
Fix direction: increase empirical shrinkage

Weak run-model signal

Consecutive slates: 6
Present now: yes
Target levers listed: training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate
Parameter actionable: no
Metrics harmed: team-run MAE and total-run MAE
Fix direction: isolated feature/target/training backtest; do not force a production parameter move

Finding streaks

high_raw_probability_cluster: consecutive count 0; present now false; incidence 2/6
pipeline_winner_instability: consecutive count 1; present now true; incidence 3/6
score_margin_compression: consecutive count 3; present now true; incidence 3/6
simulation_inert_on_slate: consecutive count 6; present now true; incidence 6/6
single_slate_calibration_instability: consecutive count 3; present now true; incidence 5/6
weak_run_model_signal: consecutive count 6; present now true; incidence 6/6

Raw structural blocks

Margin distribution

Actual margins ≥4: 8/15
Predicted margins ≤2: 15/15
Actual margin range: 1 to 11
Predicted margin range: 1 to 2
Mean predicted margin: 1.20
Mean actual margin: 4.27
Slate margin bias series is regressing: −1.333, −1.882, −2.786, −3.500, −2.533, −3.067

Pipeline transitions

Historical ML was 11/15.
Variance applied fell to 9/15.
Enhanced prediction fell to 5/15.
Every subsequent stage remained 5/15.
This establishes an intermediate winner-direction regression, not merely a final-score issue.

Calibration monitoring

Current buckets remain overconfident:

0.50–0.55: 40% observed hits against 53.34% confidence
0.55–0.60: 20% observed hits against 56.32% confidence
Weighted absolute calibration error: 0.2100

The trend direction is marked flat, but at a poor level rather than a healthy level.

High raw cluster

Threshold: 0.65
Current games: 0
Current hits: 0
No present high-raw cluster to correct.

Simulation control

Observed games: 15
Flip candidates: 0
Published flips: 0
Status: diagnostic-only without independent support
Persistence: six consecutive slates

Metric-trend directions

Margin bias: regressing, mean −2.5168
Mean team-run error on losses: regressing, mean 6.1292
Weighted calibration error: flat, mean 0.2178
Winner accuracy: regressing, mean 0.5624

Top-confidence-pick loss streak

The top-confidence pick has a current loss streak of 2:

2026-08-28: hit
2026-08-29: hit
2026-08-30: miss
2026-08-31: hit
2026-09-01: miss
2026-09-02: miss

---

8. Adjustments for today

Recommendations are ranked by persistence, scope, expected metric effect, and regression risk.

1. Bounded shadow experiment for persistent score compression

Exact lever: score.variance_multiplier
Direction: increase modestly
Magnitude: +5% in shadow only
Expected metric: reduce team-run MAE and total-run MAE; improve tail coverage and potentially reduce Brier/calibration error
Helps according to lever tension: BAL@COL, DET@MIN, OAK@TEX, TOR@CLE
Hurts according to current slate tension: none listed
Regression risk: medium; widening can worsen already close or low-scoring games
Gate: compare against current production on rolling out-of-sample slates; roll back if median team-run MAE or total-run MAE worsens materially

score.variance_floor could be tested separately, not simultaneously, to preserve causal interpretability.

2. Bounded shadow experiment for persistent calibration overconfidence

Exact lever: confidence.empirical_max_weight
Direction: increase empirical shrinkage
Magnitude: +5% relative weight in shadow
Expected metrics: lower weighted calibration error and Brier score; reduce overconfidence in the 0.50–0.60 buckets
Helps: moderate-confidence misses such as BAL@COL, DET@MIN, OAK@TEX, and TOR@CLE
Hurts: may reduce useful confidence separation on correct calls such as NYY@LAA, MIA@KC, and MIL@CHC
Regression risk: medium; monitor discrimination, not only calibration
Gate: retain only if calibration error improves without unacceptable winner-accuracy or log-loss degradation

Do not simultaneously change confidence.base_cap or confidence.moderate_cap; those are alternative shadow levers.

3. Code/diagnostic action for six-slate simulation inertness

Target: simulation.allow_score
Parameter move: abstain from production parameter tuning
Action: verify execution path, score-state mutation, flip-candidate generation, and whether simulation output is actually consumed by simulation_result and published_final
Expected metric: establish whether simulation can affect team-run MAE and total-run MAE
Helps: all games if simulation is silently no-oping
Hurts: none directly, but a faulty diagnostic change could create artifact risk
Regression risk: high if enabled blindly; this is a code/diagnostic issue, not a tuning opportunity

4. Isolated training/backtest for six-slate weak run-model signal

Target levers listed: training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate
Parameter move: abstain from direct production change
Action: manual isolated training experiment comparing feature sets, target definitions, tail losses, and walk-forward MAE/R²
Expected metric: improve team-run MAE and total-run MAE if a better target or feature representation is found
Helps: broad run-error games, particularly DET@MIN, NYM@TB, OAK@TEX, PHI@ARI, SEA@BOS, STL@LAD, and TOR@CLE
Hurts: uncertain; SF@PIT’s low current run error demonstrates the risk of broad changes
Regression risk: high without an isolated backtest

5. Winner-pipeline diagnostic for the strongest single-slate driver

Strongest slate-specific driver: variance_applied → enhanced_prediction winner regression
Exact registered parameter: none
Parameter move: abstain
Action: code-level trace and contract check for every winner change, especially DET@MIN, OAK@TEX, PHI@ARI, SEA@BOS, and TOR@CLE; retain pre-enhanced and post-enhanced pick probabilities and sides
Expected metric: restore winner accuracy and reduce Brier damage if the regression is caused by an implementation or weighting defect
Helps: the five explicitly regressed games
Hurts: no evidence of a justified production lever; blanket removal of enhancement could damage ATL@WAS or other recovered cases
Regression risk: high if the enhancement is simply removed without attribution

6. Critical probability-lineage remediation

Exact lever: none; this is a contract fix
Action: reconstruct SF@PIT raw → calibrated → governor → score coherence/recency → published math; reconcile MIA@KC’s minor unexplained text as well
Expected metric: artifact integrity, auditability, and confidence in Brier/calibration measurements
Helps: SF@PIT directly; all future games operationally
Hurts: none if limited to trace correction
Promotion status: block promotion until resolved

---

9. Bottom line

Known:

The slate was fully covered and scored across all 15 games.
Winner accuracy was poor at 5/15.
Exact-run modeling was substantially under-dispersed: every predicted margin was ≤2 while more than half the actual margins were ≥4.
The historical ML stage was much better directionally than the later published pipeline.
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction caused a material four-hit winner regression.
Published confidence was overconfident, particularly in the 0.55–0.60 bucket.
Score compression, calibration instability, simulation inertness, and weak run-model signal are persistent cross-slate patterns.
Two pitch-count warnings are artifact/contract problems, not demonstrated causes of prediction misses.
SF@PIT has a critical unexplained probability-publication delta.
The integrity revision audit is missing.

Uncertain:

Whether the enhanced-prediction degradation is a weighting problem, implementation defect, or interaction among recent form, H2H, starter controls, and low-score logic.
Whether widening variance will improve winner probabilities or only score tails.
Whether simulation is truly inert or simply has no winner-direction opportunities under the current configuration.
Player-level causal attribution remains incomplete because actual player-level forensics are unavailable.

The single safest next action is:

> Block promotion and trace the complete probability lineage for SF@PIT while simultaneously preserving before/after winner picks at every pipeline stage, especially the variance_applied → enhanced_prediction transition.

That action addresses the only critical contract failure and the strongest single-slate process risk without making an unvalidated production tuning change.

Deep slate report — 20260902

Slate summary

What drove the losses

Source coverage receipt

High-level causal issue register

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Probability lineage and calibration

Score distribution and margin compression

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

ATL@WASHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

BAL@COLMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CHW@HOUHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

DET@MINMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIA@KCHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIL@CHCHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

NYM@TBMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

NYY@LAAHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

OAK@TEXMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

PHI@ARIMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick