Deep slate diagnosis —

• Games: 0 · hits 0 · misses 0 · winner accuracy None
• Mean total-run bias on losses: None (negative = under-projected)
• Mean team-run error on losses: None · mean Brier on losses: None

Loss primary drivers

High-level causal issue register

[CRITICAL] Not every settled game received structural QA

• Domain: coverage · affected: slate-wide
• Evidence: 0/0 games structurally audited
• Action: Do not call the slate clean; run per-game QA on every canonical artifact first.
• Do not infer: A clean subset of games cannot certify the games that were never audited.

[INFO] Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate

• Domain: simulation · affected: slate-wide
• Evidence: flip candidates 0; published flips 0
• Action: Measure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping.
• Do not infer: Zero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

• Window: 20260918, 20260919, 20260920, 20260921, 20260922, 20260923, 20260924, 20260925, 20260926, 20260927, (10 prior slates loaded)
• Highest-confidence pick loss streak: 0 slate(s)
• Actionable pattern detected: True

Escalated persistent patterns

• simulation_inert_on_slate — 11 consecutive slates (11 in window)
• Target lever(s): simulation.allow_score
• Direction: confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping
• Guardrail: simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Metric direction across the window

• winner_accuracy: improving · series [0.6667, 0.7333, 0.6, 0.3333, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6667, 0.6471, 0.5385, 0.6429, None]
• weighted_calibration_error: improving · series [0.1247, 0.3458, 0.3184, 0.2028, 0.1881, 0.1108, 0.1701, 0.1302, 0.1524, 0.1031, None]
• margin_bias: improving · series [-2.0, -0.667, -1.533, -2.667, -1.867, -1.188, -1.083, -1.706, -3.0, -1.571, None]
• mean_team_run_error_on_losses: improving · series [5.2, 6.5, 6.5, 3.0, 6.222, 5.75, 3.5, 5.333, 6.167, 4.8, None]

Pipeline stage quality

Probability lineage

Every game, in detail

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, with the games it would help and the games it would hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

score.variance_multiplier / score.variance_floor (widen run distributions)

• Targets: brier_score, calibration_error
• Net: 0 helped vs 0 hurt

player.pitcher.v4 form weights / player.pitcher_prior_games

• Targets: starter_er_mae, starter_outs_mae
• Net: 0 helped vs 0 hurt

recent. / season. run-mean weighting

• Targets: team_run_mae, total_run_mae, accuracy
• Net: 0 helped vs 0 hurt