Deep slate diagnosis — 20260828

• Games: 15 · hits 7 · misses 8 · winner accuracy 0.4667
• Mean total-run bias on losses: 0.0 (negative = under-projected)
• Mean team-run error on losses: 5.0 · mean Brier on losses: 0.312

Loss primary drivers

• Small edge on the losing side: 1
• Several errors of similar size: 1
• Run environment far lower than projected (over-dispersed): 1
• Run environment far higher than projected (under-dispersed): 1
• Starting-pitcher projection was wrong: 2
• Backed the wrong side with real conviction: 2

High-level causal issue register

[HIGH] Blocking canonical artifact error

• Domain: artifact_integrity · affected: 20260828_SEA@TOR
• Evidence: structural audit totals: {'critical': 0, 'error': 1, 'warning': 0, 'info': 108}
• Action: quarantine the slate from parameter learning and repair the generation boundary
• Do not infer: do not attribute prediction accuracy changes to a malformed artifact

[HIGH] Published confidence buckets were poorly aligned on this slate

• Domain: calibration · affected: ARI@SF, BAL@OAK, BOS@NYY, CHW@MIN, CIN@CHC, COL@ATL, HOU@NYM, KC@CLE, LAD@DET, MIA@WAS, PHI@LAA, PIT@STL, SD@TB, SEA@TOR, TEX@MIL
• Evidence: weighted absolute calibration error 0.2179 across 15 games
• Action: monitor the same buckets over the registered rolling window before changing calibration weights
• Do not infer: seven games cannot establish a stable calibration curve

[HIGH] Validated run models explain very little holdout variance

• Domain: model_validation · affected: ARI@SF, BAL@OAK, BOS@NYY, CHW@MIN, CIN@CHC, COL@ATL, HOU@NYM, KC@CLE, LAD@DET, MIA@WAS, PHI@LAA, PIT@STL, SD@TB, SEA@TOR, TEX@MIL
• Evidence: home/away/total R² = 0.0459/0.0247/0.0212
• Action: treat exact scores as low-confidence estimates and investigate feature/target signal before tuning tails
• Do not infer: positive R² means better than the mean baseline, not that exact scores are reliable

[INFO] Every settled game received structural QA

• Domain: coverage · affected: ARI@SF, BAL@OAK, BOS@NYY, CHW@MIN, CIN@CHC, COL@ATL, HOU@NYM, KC@CLE, LAD@DET, MIA@WAS, PHI@LAA, PIT@STL, SD@TB, SEA@TOR, TEX@MIL
• Evidence: 15/15 games structurally audited
• Action: retain the per-game receipt in every report
• Do not infer: complete coverage does not erase findings inside the audited games

[INFO] Material calibrated-to-published movements have recorded lineage

• Domain: probability_lineage · affected: ARI@SF, BOS@NYY, CIN@CHC, PIT@STL, SEA@TOR
• Evidence: 5 material movement(s), all explained by named score-coherence and/or recency transformations
• Action: keep displaying each probability layer and transformation
• Do not infer: a higher published value is not automatically a governor bypass

[INFO] Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate

• Domain: simulation · affected: ARI@SF, BAL@OAK, BOS@NYY, CHW@MIN, CIN@CHC, COL@ATL, HOU@NYM, KC@CLE, LAD@DET, MIA@WAS, PHI@LAA, PIT@STL, SD@TB, SEA@TOR, TEX@MIL
• Evidence: flip candidates 0; published flips 0
• Action: measure simulation contribution over rolling slates and distinguish score realization from winner flipping
• Do not infer: zero flips is not itself a defect and does not mean simulation did no score-reconciliation work

Pipeline stage quality

• historical_ml: winner 7/15 (0.4667), team-run MAE 2.6154, margin MAE 3.4913
• variance_applied: winner 5/15 (0.3333), team-run MAE 2.6, margin MAE 3.4667
• enhanced_prediction: winner 7/15 (0.4667), team-run MAE 2.3333, margin MAE 3.3333
• embedded_savant_run_environment: winner 7/15 (0.4667), team-run MAE 2.2667, margin MAE 3.4667
• fundamental_edge_target_review: winner 7/15 (0.4667), team-run MAE 2.2667, margin MAE 3.4667
• capped_target: winner 7/15 (0.4667), team-run MAE 2.2667, margin MAE 3.4667
• simulation_result: winner 7/15 (0.4667), team-run MAE 2.2667, margin MAE 3.4667
• published_final: winner 7/15 (0.4667), team-run MAE 2.2667, margin MAE 3.4667

Probability lineage

• ARI@SF: raw 0.5085 → calibrated 0.5082 → published 0.5337; score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
• BAL@OAK: raw 0.5495 → calibrated 0.5483 → published 0.5481; published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
• BOS@NYY: raw 0.5085 → calibrated 0.5082 → published 0.53; score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
• CHW@MIN: raw 0.5085 → calibrated 0.5082 → published 0.5269; score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
• CIN@CHC: raw 0.659 → calibrated 0.6508 → published 0.56; score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
• COL@ATL: raw 0.8613 → calibrated 0.8553 → published 0.8477; score_coherence aligned probability to the published score margin
• HOU@NYM: raw 0.5305 → calibrated 0.5297 → published 0.5487; no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
• KC@CLE: raw 0.5922 → calibrated 0.5887 → published 0.5738; no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
• LAD@DET: raw 0.67 → calibrated 0.6607 → published 0.6654; score_coherence aligned probability to the published score margin
• MIA@WAS: raw 0.568 → calibrated 0.5661 → published 0.5546; score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
• PHI@LAA: raw 0.5721 → calibrated 0.57 → published 0.5659; published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
• PIT@STL: raw 0.6634 → calibrated 0.6547 → published 0.6; score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
• SD@TB: raw 0.5507 → calibrated 0.5495 → published 0.5572; no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
• SEA@TOR: raw 0.5833 → calibrated 0.5798 → published 0.53; score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
• TEX@MIL: raw 0.8613 → calibrated 0.8553 → published 0.8477; score_coherence aligned probability to the published score margin

Every game, in detail

ARI@SF — ❌ miss

• Predicted SF 5-6 (conf +0.07, lean) · actual ARI 10-6
• Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong
• Errors: winner WRONG · Brier 0.284805 · team-run err 5.0 · total bias -5
• Contributing factors:
• total runs under-projected by 5 (11 vs 16)
• ARI offense under-projected by 5
• Blade Tidwell (SF) allowed 5 more ER than projected (6 vs 1)

BAL@OAK — ✅ hit

• Predicted BAL 6-5 (conf -0.10, lean) · actual BAL 4-3
• Root cause: solid_correct_call
• Errors: winner correct · Brier 0.204177 · team-run err 4.0 · total bias +4
• Contributing factors:
• total runs over-projected by 4 (11 vs 7)
• Brandon Young (BAL) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)
• Jacob Lopez (OAK) allowed 5 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 6)

BOS@NYY — ✅ hit

• Predicted NYY 4-6 (conf +0.06, lean) · actual NYY 0-1
• Root cause: right_winner_wrong_score
• Errors: winner correct · Brier 0.2209 · team-run err 9.0 · total bias +9
• Contributing factors:
• total runs over-projected by 9 (10 vs 1)
• BOS offense over-projected by 4
• NYY offense over-projected by 5
• Patrick Sandoval (BOS) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)

CHW@MIN — ❌ miss

• Predicted MIN 5-6 (conf +0.05, lean) · actual CHW 7-4
• Root cause: Small edge on the losing side
• Errors: winner WRONG · Brier 0.277663 · team-run err 4.0 · total bias +0

CIN@CHC — ❌ miss

• Predicted CHC 5-7 (conf +0.12, moderate) · actual CIN 10-8
• Root cause: Run environment far higher than projected (under-dispersed)
• Errors: winner WRONG · Brier 0.3136 · team-run err 6.0 · total bias -6
• Contributing factors:
• total runs under-projected by 6 (12 vs 18)
• CIN offense under-projected by 5
• committed to CHC at 0.12 confidence and it lost

COL@ATL — ✅ hit

• Predicted ATL 3-8 (conf +0.70, strong) · actual ATL 4-6
• Root cause: strong_correct_call
• Errors: winner correct · Brier 0.023204 · team-run err 3.0 · total bias +1

HOU@NYM — ❌ miss

• Predicted NYM 3-4 (conf +0.10, lean) · actual HOU 3-1
• Root cause: Several errors of similar size
• Errors: winner WRONG · Brier 0.301122 · team-run err 3.0 · total bias +3
• Contributing factors:
• total runs over-projected by 3 (7 vs 4)
• NYM offense over-projected by 3

KC@CLE — ❌ miss

• Predicted CLE 4-5 (conf +0.15, moderate) · actual KC 3-0
• Root cause: Run environment far lower than projected (over-dispersed)
• Errors: winner WRONG · Brier 0.329291 · team-run err 6.0 · total bias +6
• Contributing factors:
• total runs over-projected by 6 (9 vs 3)
• CLE offense over-projected by 5
• committed to CLE at 0.15 confidence and it lost

LAD@DET — ✅ hit

• Predicted LAD 4-1 (conf -0.33, strong) · actual LAD 2-1
• Root cause: strong_correct_call
• Errors: winner correct · Brier 0.111975 · team-run err 2.0 · total bias +2

MIA@WAS — ❌ miss

• Predicted MIA 5-4 (conf -0.11, moderate) · actual WAS 2-9
• Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong
• Errors: winner WRONG · Brier 0.307548 · team-run err 8.0 · total bias -2
• Contributing factors:
• MIA offense over-projected by 3
• WAS offense under-projected by 5
• Eury Pérez (MIA) allowed 4 more ER than projected (5 vs 1)
• committed to MIA at 0.11 confidence and it lost

PHI@LAA — ❌ miss

• Predicted LAA 4-5 (conf +0.13, moderate) · actual PHI 5-3
• Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction
• Errors: winner WRONG · Brier 0.320236 · team-run err 3.0 · total bias +1
• Contributing factors:
• committed to LAA at 0.13 confidence and it lost

PIT@STL — ❌ miss

• Predicted PIT 5-3 (conf -0.20, strong) · actual STL 1-4
• Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction
• Errors: winner WRONG · Brier 0.36 · team-run err 5.0 · total bias +3
• Contributing factors:
• total runs over-projected by 3 (8 vs 5)
• PIT offense over-projected by 4
• committed to PIT at 0.20 confidence and it lost

SD@TB — ✅ hit

• Predicted TB 4-5 (conf +0.11, moderate) · actual TB 4-9
• Root cause: solid_correct_call
• Errors: winner correct · Brier 0.19611 · team-run err 4.0 · total bias -4
• Contributing factors:
• total runs under-projected by 4 (9 vs 13)
• TB offense under-projected by 4

SEA@TOR — ✅ hit

• Predicted TOR 2-4 (conf +0.06, lean) · actual TOR 1-8
• Root cause: right_winner_wrong_score
• Errors: winner correct · Brier 0.2209 · team-run err 5.0 · total bias -3
• Contributing factors:
• total runs under-projected by 3 (6 vs 9)
• TOR offense under-projected by 4
• Emerson Hancock (SEA) allowed 4 more ER than projected (5 vs 1)

TEX@MIL — ✅ hit

• Predicted MIL 2-6 (conf +0.70, strong) · actual MIL 1-6
• Root cause: strong_correct_call
• Errors: winner correct · Brier 0.023204 · team-run err 1.0 · total bias +1

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, with the games it would help and the games it would hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

score.variance_multiplier / score.variance_floor (widen run distributions)

• Targets: brier_score, calibration_error
• Net: 5 helped vs 3 hurt
• Would help:
• CIN@CHC (miss): lost a 0.12-confidence pick; wider tails lower overconfidence
• KC@CLE (miss): lost a 0.15-confidence pick; wider tails lower overconfidence
• MIA@WAS (miss): lost a 0.11-confidence pick; wider tails lower overconfidence
• PHI@LAA (miss): lost a 0.13-confidence pick; wider tails lower overconfidence
• PIT@STL (miss): lost a 0.20-confidence pick; wider tails lower overconfidence
• Would hurt / risk:
• COL@ATL (hit): strong correct call at 0.70; widening softens a good edge
• LAD@DET (hit): strong correct call at 0.33; widening softens a good edge
• TEX@MIL (hit): strong correct call at 0.70; widening softens a good edge

player.pitcher.v4 form weights / player.pitcher_prior_games

• Targets: starter_er_mae, starter_outs_mae
• Net: 5 helped vs 4 hurt
• Would help:
• ARI@SF (miss): starter ER off by 5
• BAL@OAK (hit): starter ER off by 5
• BOS@NYY (hit): starter ER off by 3
• MIA@WAS (miss): starter ER off by 4
• SEA@TOR (hit): starter ER off by 4
• Would hurt / risk:
• LAD@DET (hit): starter projection was accurate (ER off 1); reweight risks disturbing it
• PIT@STL (miss): starter projection was accurate (ER off 1); reweight risks disturbing it
• SD@TB (hit): starter projection was accurate (ER off 1); reweight risks disturbing it
• TEX@MIL (hit): starter projection was accurate (ER off 1); reweight risks disturbing it

recent. / season. run-mean weighting

• Targets: team_run_mae, total_run_mae, accuracy
• Net: 10 helped vs 2 hurt
• Would help:
• ARI@SF (miss): team runs off by 5
• BAL@OAK (hit): team runs off by 4
• BOS@NYY (hit): team runs off by 9
• CHW@MIN (miss): team runs off by 4
• CIN@CHC (miss): team runs off by 6
• KC@CLE (miss): team runs off by 6
• MIA@WAS (miss): team runs off by 8
• PIT@STL (miss): team runs off by 5
• SD@TB (hit): team runs off by 4
• SEA@TOR (hit): team runs off by 5
• Would hurt / risk:
• LAD@DET (hit): team runs already close (off 2); reweight risks disturbing it
• TEX@MIL (hit): team runs already close (off 1); reweight risks disturbing it