Luna deep analysis — slate 20261002

Coverage receipt: COMPLETE · 9/8 sections; 0/0 games; 2/2 causes; 3/3 sources

1. Evidence receipt and gaps

Source manifest

All manifest entries were checked against the supplied JSON:

Games reviewed

• date is empty.
• games is an empty array.
• games_reviewed: 0.
• hits: 0, misses: 0.
• continuous_learning_evidence.summary: settled: 0, games: 0, hits: 0, misses: 0.
• coverage_matrix: expected_games: 0, canonical_artifacts_loaded: 0, forensic_deep_audit_games: 0, structural_audits_completed: 0, games_with_starter_comparisons: 0, continuous_learning_games: 0.
• Therefore, no individual game can be confirmed as reviewed, settled, a hit, or a miss.

Material gaps and contradictions

1. The slate is not auditable despite the learning eligibility flag. learning_eligibility.eligible is true with the reason "all game artifacts passed critical/error structural gates", but the causal register states "0/0 games structurally audited" and explicitly identifies incomplete_slate_audit_coverage as critical.

1. The audit summary understates the registered critical issue. structural_audit_summary.critical is 0, while causal_issue_register contains a critical issue: incomplete_slate_audit_coverage. This is an internal reporting inconsistency.

1. The expected slate size is zero, but the report is framed as a daily slate diagnosis. This may reflect a missing or malformed date/game payload, but the evidence does not establish which.

1. No probability lineage was supplied. probability_lineage: []; probability_reversions.available: false because no game artifacts were supplied.

1. No pipeline stages or transitions were supplied. pipeline_stage_quality.stages: [] and transitions: [], with status not_measurable.

1. No current-slate calibration or score metrics are measurable. Calibration buckets are empty; settled games are zero; weighted absolute calibration error is null.

1. No player or matchup evidence is available. slate_player_metrics.available: false; matchup patterns are unavailable because no game carried a matchup breakdown.

1. Missing HTML artifacts prevent independent presentation and revision checks. The detailed, player audit, structural audit, and integrity-revision reports are all missing.

2. Executive diagnosis

Winner accuracy

Current-slate winner accuracy is unknown, not zero and not perfect:

• The JSON reports winner_accuracy: null.
• summary.accuracy: null.
• No games were settled or reviewed.

The historical cross-slate series reports a mean winner accuracy of 0.6828 and an improving direction, but that is not evidence of current-slate accuracy.

Calibration quality

Current-slate calibration is not measurable:

• calibration_monitoring.buckets: [].
• settled_games: 0.
• weighted_absolute_calibration_error: null.
• No published probabilities are attached to games.

The cross-slate metric is nevertheless marked regressing, with mean weighted calibration error 0.2276; the series includes 0.4792 and 0.4832. That is a historical trend, not a current-slate result.

Score accuracy

Current-slate score accuracy is not measurable:

• No actual scores, predicted scores, team-run errors, total-run errors, or run margins are present.
• margin_distribution contains zero rows.
• pipeline_stage_quality is not_measurable.

The cross-slate margin_bias trend is marked regressing, with mean -2.2683. This indicates a persistent historical margin-direction concern, but no current game can be assigned that error.

Starter accuracy

Starter accuracy is not measurable:

• No starter comparisons are present.
• games_with_starter_comparisons: 0.
• No projected or actual starter lines are supplied.
• The cross-slate starter_era_error finding is explicitly held: mean -0.142, same-sign share 6/11, z-score -0.42, and persistent: false.

Artifact integrity

Artifact integrity is the most serious current issue.

The causal register contains:

Critical: incomplete_slate_audit_coverage

• Evidence: "0/0 games structurally audited".
• Affected games: none listed, because no canonical games were loaded.
• Severity: critical.
• Action: do not call the slate clean; perform per-game QA on every canonical artifact first.
• Do-not-infer guardrail: a clean subset—or, here, an empty subset—cannot certify games that were never audited.

This is a critical evidence/contract failure, not a model-quality finding.

Informational: simulation_inert_on_slate

• Evidence: flip candidates 0; published flips 0.
• Affected games: none.
• Severity: info.
• Action: measure simulation contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping.
• Do-not-infer guardrail: zero winner flips is not itself a defect and does not prove that no score-reconciliation work occurred.

However, cross-slate evidence escalates this issue to an established operational pattern; see Sections 7 and 8.

Overall diagnosis

The current slate cannot support a winner, calibration, score, starter, or player-level diagnosis. The primary known failure is missing or unpropagated evidence coverage, not demonstrated predictive failure on particular games. Separately, the simulation-inert behavior is an established cross-slate code/diagnostic concern.

A correct winner, if one had been reported, would not by itself establish a good prediction. No such current-slate winner result exists here.

3. Every game

There are no game records to enumerate.

Accordingly, the requested per-game fields are unavailable for every game:

• Predicted score: unavailable.
• Actual score: unavailable.
• Predicted winner: unavailable.
• Actual winner: unavailable.
• Published probability: unavailable.
• System confidence edge: unavailable.
• Conviction bucket: unavailable.
• Brier score: unavailable.
• Team-run error: unavailable.
• Total-run error: unavailable.
• Starter projected-versus-actual lines: unavailable.
• Season, recent, pitcher, and composite edges: unavailable.
• Confidence and recency controls: unavailable.
• Score path: unavailable.
• Player-level adjustments: unavailable.
• Audit findings: unavailable at game level.
• Primary and secondary causes: unavailable.

There are therefore:

• No identifiable hits.
• No identifiable misses.
• No correct-winner/wrong-score games.
• No loss reconstruction candidates.
• No evidence that any published prediction was made.

The absence of game rows must not be interpreted as a perfect slate, a failed slate, or a slate with no games. It is an evidence-coverage failure.

4. Miss reconstruction

Per-loss reconstruction

No loss can be reconstructed because games is empty and misses: 0 reflects absence of reviewed misses, not verified predictive success.

It is impossible to identify, for any game, whether the earliest wrong-direction movement came from:

• Bad input.
• Bad weighting.
• Calibration.
• Starter error.
• Offense or bullpen error.
• Run-environment error.
• Irreducible variance.

No current-slate primary or secondary loss drivers are recorded: loss_primary_drivers: {}.

The confidence guardrail remains important: a 0.12 home-away confidence edge would be moderate, not a near-coin-flip or near-certainty signal. No such current-slate edge is supplied.

Pipeline-stage quality audit

All required stages and transitions are absent:

• pipeline_stage_quality.status: "not_measurable".
• stages: [].
• transitions: [].
• largest_team_run_regression_vs_base: null.

Therefore:

• No stage can be credited with moving toward the correct winner.
• No stage can be blamed for winner-direction regression.
• No later recovery can be claimed.
• No claim can be made that a later stage erased an intermediate error.

The historical self-assessment identifies a specific simulation mechanism: selected draws were reportedly reused for win-probability estimation, with early exit after finding a target-realizing play-by-play. The diagnosis says this can leave away_win_rate based on roughly two selected draws, making the flip/agreement signal vacuous. That is a cross-slate implementation hypothesis supported by the stated 11-slate persistence, not a reconstructed event in a current game.

5. Cross-game counterfactuals

The current lever_tension object contains three entries. None has game assignments because there are no current games.

score.variance_multiplier / score.variance_floor

• Helps: none identified.
• Hurts: none identified.
• Net evidence: 0 helped vs 0 hurt.
• Targets: Brier score and calibration error.
• Conclusion: no current-slate counterfactual evidence supports changing this lever.

Historical context is mixed: score_margin_compression occurred in 5 of 11 window slates, but its current streak is zero and it is not currently escalated.

player.pitcher.v4 form weights / player.pitcher_prior_games

• Helps: none identified.
• Hurts: none identified.
• Net evidence: 0 helped vs 0 hurt.
• Targets: starter ERA MAE and starter outs MAE.
• Conclusion: no current-slate evidence supports changing pitcher-form or prior-game weighting.

The cross-slate starter ERA bias is held, not persistent: 6 of 11 slates share the sign, with z -0.42.

recent.* / season.* run-mean weighting

• Helps: none identified.
• Hurts: none identified.
• Net evidence: 0 helped vs 0 hurt.
• Targets: team-run MAE, total-run MAE, and accuracy.
• Conclusion: no current-slate evidence supports changing recent-versus-season weighting.

Tempting fixes that should not be made

1. Do not lower confidence caps based on this slate. No current probabilities, hits, misses, or Brier outcomes exist.

1. Do not widen score variance based on a presumed current margin miss. No current predicted or actual margins exist.

1. Do not retune pitcher-form weights. No starter comparisons exist, and the historical starter bias is explicitly nonpersistent.

1. Do not alter recent/season run weighting. The lever-tension matrix contains no affected games, and the historical lineup-run bias is held as noise.

1. Do not infer simulation success or failure from zero published flips alone. The causal register explicitly says zero winner flips is not itself proof of a defect, although the 11-slate persistence warrants code diagnosis.

6. Data and contract defects

Critical findings

incomplete_slate_audit_coverage

• Type: Evidence/coverage contract failure.
• Evidence: 0 games structurally audited; all coverage counts are zero.
• Required action: load the canonical game artifacts and run per-game QA before declaring the slate clean.
• Model defect or artifact defect: artifact/coverage defect.
• Important inconsistency: this critical finding is not reflected in structural_audit_summary.critical, which remains zero.

Error findings

No findings are listed with severity error.

This does not mean the slate is error-free. It means no error-severity rows were supplied.

Warning findings

No findings are listed with severity warning.

Again, this is not evidence of a clean slate because the canonical audit population is empty.

Informational findings

simulation_inert_on_slate

• Type: Simulation diagnostic.
• Evidence: zero flip candidates and zero published flips.
• Current severity: info.
• Cross-slate status: escalated to an established 11-slate pattern.
• Model versus artifact: likely code/diagnostic behavior, not a demonstrated prediction miss on this slate.
• Guardrail: zero winner flips alone cannot prove no score reconciliation occurred.

Coverage matrix reconciliation

The coverage matrix is not clean:

• all_games_structurally_audited: false.
• expected_games: 0.
• canonical_artifacts_loaded: 0.
• forensic_deep_audit_games: 0.
• structural_audits_completed: 0.
• games_with_starter_comparisons: 0.
• continuous_learning_games: 0.

The false value for all_games_structurally_audited is decisive. A zero-denominator audit cannot establish complete coverage.

Probability-lineage audit

The required lineage is:

1. Raw model probability.
2. Calibrated probability.
3. Governor/cap adjustment.
4. Score-coherence and recency adjustment.
5. Published probability.

The supplied object contains no lineage rows:

• probability_lineage: [].
• probability_reversions.available: false.
• No raw, calibrated, governed, coherent, recency-adjusted, or published values are available.

Accordingly, no bypass can be formally declared. A bypass requires a material delta between stages with no recorded transformation; there are no stages to compare. The correct finding is lineage absent, not “lineage bypass proven.”

7. Cross-slate persistence

A single slate is absent here, but the supplied historical blocks provide persistence evidence.

Escalated finding

simulation_inert_on_slate

• Consecutive-slate count: 11.
• Incidence: 11 slates in the window.
• Present now: yes.
• Target lever: simulation.allow_score.
• Target metrics: team_run_mae, total_run_mae.
• Parameter actionable: false.
• Required direction: confirm that the simulation runs and is not silently no-oping.
• Status: established failure pattern, not single-slate noise.

The registered self-assessment gives the proposed code-level remedy:

• Separate target-realization search from win-probability estimation.
• Use an independent unsteered batch, such as 200–500 draws, or a closed-form Poisson/Skellam difference.
• Do not early-exit the probability batch.
• Make batch size a registered parameter.
• Feed the independent win rate into final_prediction_policy._distribution_agreement.
• Relevant locations are identified as routers/team_router.py, including _build_simulation_distribution, the draw-loop early exit, and NUM_SIMULATIONS / MIN_DRAWS_BEFORE_CLOSE_EXIT.

Finding streaks

The escalation_streak: 3 is also present, but the explicit finding-level persistence for simulation is 11 consecutive slates.

Metric trends

Each registered trend is:

• Margin bias: regressing; mean -2.2683.
• Mean team-run error on losses: improving; mean 4.8246.
• Weighted calibration error: regressing; mean 0.2276.
• Winner accuracy: improving; mean 0.6828.

These trends must not be conflated. Improving winner accuracy does not cancel regressing calibration or margin bias.

Top-confidence pick loss streak

• loss_streak: 0.
• The per-slate record includes misses on 20260922 and 20260926, hits on 20260923, 20260924, 20260925, 20260927, 20260929, 20260930, and 20261001, plus two unknown-date entries.
• Therefore, there is no current established top-confidence-pick loss streak.
• The unknown-date rows are a data-quality concern but cannot be assigned to a date or treated as losses.

Raw structural blocks

• margin_distribution: zero games, zero actual margins, zero predicted margins.
• pipeline_stage_quality: no stages or transitions; not measurable.
• calibration_monitoring: zero settled games and null weighted calibration error.
• high_raw_cluster: zero games and zero hits; threshold 0.65.
• simulation_control: observed games 0, published flips 0, candidates 0, status diagnostic_only_without_independent_support.

The cross-slate simulation persistence is therefore the only established actionable pattern in the supplied evidence.

8. Adjustments for today

Recommendations are ranked by evidence strength and operational safety.

1. Highest priority: repair and verify simulation execution

• Pattern: simulation_inert_on_slate, persistent for 11 consecutive slates.
• Registered target lever: simulation.allow_score.
• Parameter direction/magnitude: no parameter move is justified because the finding is explicitly param_actionable: false; do not force simulation.allow_score upward or downward.
• Bounded change: perform the registered code/diagnostic action: verify that simulation.allow_score reaches the simulation path, remove the probability-batch early exit, and create an independent fixed-size probability batch.
• Expected metrics: reduce team_run_mae and total_run_mae; improve the validity of winner-probability and score-coherence diagnostics.
• Shadow/rollback gate: run the independent batch in shadow mode first; compare simulation contribution, team-run MAE, total-run MAE, and probability stability against the existing path. Roll back if score MAE worsens materially or if runtime/variance becomes uncontrolled.
• Helps versus hurts: no current games are available for assignment. The lever-tension record has zero helped and zero hurt games.
• Evidence strength: highest, because persistence is 11/11 and the registered action is concrete.

2. Current-slate evidence coverage restoration

• Pattern: critical incomplete_slate_audit_coverage.
• Registered parameter: none.
• Parameter direction/magnitude: not applicable; this is a contract and artifact problem.
• Bounded change: load the canonical prediction and outcome artifacts, populate the expected game count and game rows, then run per-game structural QA before any model tuning.
• Expected metrics: increase canonical_artifacts_loaded, forensic_deep_audit_games, structural_audits_completed, continuous_learning_games, and games_with_starter_comparisons from zero to the actual slate counts; resolve the eligibility/audit-summary contradiction.
• Helps versus hurts: all games that are currently missing from analysis; no model lever tension can be assessed until games exist.
• Evidence strength: critical operational necessity, although it is not a predictive parameter adjustment.

3. Single strongest single-slate driver

No current-slate predictive driver can be established because there are no games, scores, probabilities, or losses. The strongest current-slate driver is therefore evidence absence, not offense, pitching, calibration, or variance.

Do not make a confidence-cap, score-variance, pitcher-weight, or recent/season-weight change from this payload. No registered lever is supported by current-slate observations.

9. Bottom line

Known

• Three principal source files were loaded; four supporting reports are missing.
• No current game records were supplied.
• No current winner, score, starter, player, calibration, or probability-lineage conclusions are measurable.
• Coverage is not complete: all structural and canonical counts are zero.
• The claim that all artifacts passed critical/error gates conflicts with the critical incomplete-coverage finding.
• Simulation inertness is an established cross-slate pattern lasting 11 consecutive slates.
• Cross-slate winner accuracy is improving, while margin bias and weighted calibration error are regressing.
• The top-confidence-pick loss streak is zero, with two unknown-date records.

Uncertain

• Whether the slate truly contained zero games or whether game artifacts failed to load.
• Whether any individual prediction was correct or incorrect.
• Whether score, starter, offense, bullpen, calibration, or run-environment errors occurred.
• Whether simulation inertness materially affected this absent current slate.
• Whether any probability-lineage stage bypass occurred.

Single safest next action

Restore and validate complete per-game artifact coverage before changing model parameters: load the canonical game records, run structural QA for every game, and independently verify that the simulation probability path executes rather than early-exiting. Do not promote any confidence, variance, pitcher, or run-weight adjustment until that evidence exists.