Continuous postgame learning

daily_20261010 · dates 20261010 · generated 2026-10-11T09:12:31.187876+00:00

1-0
Winner picks · 100.0%
2
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
1/2
Starter ER within ±1
2/2
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

DateGamesSettledPendingHitsMissesCalibration tracesReview statusPipeline versions
20261010110101Availableenhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

PriorityChangeStatusObserved gamesEvidence
P1Empirical Confidence BlendImplemented And Applied1
applied games: 1formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate
P1H2H Base FeatureImplemented And Monitored1
available games: 1
P2Score Distribution WideningImplemented Above 1.4X1
variance multipliers: [2.25]
P2Simulation Flip ControlDiagnostic Only Without Independent Support1
simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3Recent Form Quality BlendImplemented Last 101
configured window: 10last 10 games: 1observed windows: [10]
P3Continuous Calibration AuditImplemented1
settled games: 1metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.4732.

BucketGamesAverage confidenceObserved hit rateCalibration errorDirection
0.50-0.55152.7%100.0%-47.3%underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml13.47116.94221.2224100.0%0.00.0
variance_applied13.57.01.0100.0%0.0289-0.2224
enhanced_prediction14.59.01.0100.0%1.0289-0.2224
kpi_layer14.59.01.0100.0%1.0289-0.2224
embedded_savant_run_environment14.59.01.0100.0%1.0289-0.2224
fundamental_edge_target_review14.59.01.0100.0%1.0289-0.2224
capped_target14.59.01.0100.0%1.0289-0.2224
simulation_result14.59.01.0100.0%1.0289-0.2224
published_final14.59.01.0100.0%1.0289-0.2224
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 1,
  "team_run_mae": 4.5,
  "total_run_mae": 9.0,
  "margin_mae": 1.0,
  "winner_hits": 1,
  "winner_accuracy": 1.0,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 1.0289,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.2224
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

insufficient_sample sample=0

No settled miss predictions were available.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "top_stage": null,
  "reason": "No settled miss predictions were available.",
  "ranking": [],
  "interpretation": "No attribution claim can be made without settled games."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=1

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StagePositive Toward Pick Run DeltaNegative Away From Pick Run DeltaNet Toward Pick Run DeltaAbsolute Run MovementGames RecordedGames Supporting PickGames Opposing PickGames UnchangedMeaning
variance_applied0.22240.00.22240.22241100reinforced final pick
enhanced_prediction0.00.00.00.01001recorded but did not change score margin
kpi_layer0.00.00.00.01001recorded but did not change score margin
embedded_savant_run_environment0.00.00.00.01001recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review0.00.00.00.01001recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target0.00.00.00.01001recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result0.00.00.00.01001recorded but did not change score margin
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "top_stage": "variance_applied",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.2224,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.2224,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.2224,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=1

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)000
[0.525, 0.550)1101.0
[0.550, 0.600)000
[0.600, 1.010)000
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 1,
    "misses": 0,
    "accuracy": 1.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=1

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
2026101010.526811.01.0
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20261010",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5268,
      "mean_predicted_total": 11.0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=1

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v11model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v31101.0
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20261010_CHW@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCLE
Published scoreCHW 5 - 6 CLE
Final confidence52.7%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.8% · weight 45.0% · n=739
H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1605
Simulation variance2.25
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.082329953276532-4.859910801686279Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-6Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer5.0-6.0Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-6Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-6Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-6Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.05369,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.526845,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.526845,
    "away_win_probability": 0.473155
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.05369,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.52684521,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 739,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5683,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53629,
    "published_confidence": 0.526845,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2685,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1605
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016105061651613514
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015604888784574392
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015475104170797418
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015319647301526141
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015164065395994575
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.042088349881007514,
      "1": 0.06275675094894718,
      "2": 0.0855296249829942,
      "3": 0.10654430703624167,
      "4": 0.12131136654563023,
      "5": 0.12624968566904232,
      "6": 0.12009271980554614,
      "7": 0.10441445365599299,
      "8": 0.08297783986028358,
      "9": 0.06027277591819486,
      "10": 0.04001638265884713,
      "11": 0.024283541571535158,
      "12": 0.013469261618018659,
      "13": 0.006828622676162745,
      "14": 0.003164317171555586
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04352501688314665,
      "1": 0.06483872848411987,
      "2": 0.08812143769079438,
      "3": 0.10926478149299158,
      "4": 0.12360338722333046,
      "5": 0.12756516237063895,
      "6": 0.12011170812532926,
      "7": 0.10317872177202496,
      "8": 0.08086237384618969,
      "9": 0.057816842870782106,
      "10": 0.037714973125808106,
      "11": 0.022445266965423996,
      "12": 0.012186732856621793,
      "13": 0.006036724414603299,
      "14": 0.002728141878195012
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0225,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.03,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.2,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5268,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5059,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5268,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.04,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0225,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.2,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.4,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-668e4305abca59bc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:02895b398be5e25b874cb24573f6272d7b4e2c440e5dad0b021995c628ed5ed3",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-10-07T09:21:29.935210+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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  ]
}

Every reviewed game

DateGamePickFinal confidenceRaw confidenceEmpirical hit rateEmpirical weightPred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipelineRoadmap signals
2026101020261010_CHW@CLECLE52.7%51.0%56.8%45.0%5.0-6.00-2hitVariance Applied (0.2224)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
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    "published_confidence": 0.526845,
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        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
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        "probability": 0.015604888784574392
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      {
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      "7": 0.10441445365599299,
      "8": 0.08297783986028358,
      "9": 0.06027277591819486,
      "10": 0.04001638265884713,
      "11": 0.024283541571535158,
      "12": 0.013469261618018659,
      "13": 0.006828622676162745,
      "14": 0.003164317171555586
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04352501688314665,
      "1": 0.06483872848411987,
      "2": 0.08812143769079438,
      "3": 0.10926478149299158,
      "4": 0.12360338722333046,
      "5": 0.12756516237063895,
      "6": 0.12011170812532926,
      "7": 0.10317872177202496,
      "8": 0.08086237384618969,
      "9": 0.057816842870782106,
      "10": 0.037714973125808106,
      "11": 0.022445266965423996,
      "12": 0.012186732856621793,
      "13": 0.006036724414603299,
      "14": 0.002728141878195012
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0225,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.03,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.2,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}

Starting-pitcher component quality

H
{
  "mae": 2.0,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 2.0
}
R
{
  "mae": 2.5,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 2.5
}
ER
{
  "mae": 2.0,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 2.0
}
BB
{
  "mae": 2.5,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 2.5
}
SO
{
  "mae": 1.5,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.5
}
HR
{
  "mae": 0.5,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5
}
IP_outs
{
  "mae_outs": 2.5,
  "mae_innings": 0.8333,
  "bias_outs": -2.5
}

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

DateGameSidePred starterActual starterMatchPred IPActual IPΔ outsPred ERActual ERΔ ERH P/ABB P/ASO P/AAll context
2026101020261010_CHW@CLEawaySean BurkeSean BurkeTrue4.15.0252-37/43/05/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3688073394495412,
      "WHIP": 1.1669724770642202,
      "IP": 181.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 34,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.226,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1206,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9898,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
      "walk_factor": 0.99,
      "homer_factor": 1.0144,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.3,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 90,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 34.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8718,
        "prior_weight": 0.1282
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "report_date": "20261010",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 34,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 435.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 87.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1039,
            "WHIP": 0.974,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23377,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7013,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16883,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15584
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 200.0,
            "Pitches": 849.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 84.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.413,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8913,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02174,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15217
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 34,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 181.2,
            "ER": 68.0,
            "R": 71.0,
            "H": 149.0,
            "BB": 63.0,
            "SO": 199.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 750.0,
            "Pitches": 3033.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0882,
            "H": 4.3824,
            "BB": 1.8529,
            "SO": 5.8529,
            "HR": 0.6471,
            "BF": 22.0588,
            "Pitches": 89.2059
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3688,
            "WHIP": 1.167,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37431,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82018,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34679,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09541,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1211
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.861,
        "predicted_H": 4.047,
        "predicted_BB": 1.862,
        "predicted_SO": 5.358,
        "predicted_HR": 0.732,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3797,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1921
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4042,
      "form_weight": 0.5958,
      "form_reliability": 0.8718,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 34.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8718,
        "prior_weight": 0.1282
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.861,
          "final": 2.3213,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.047,
          "final": 4.4322,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.862,
          "final": 1.1094,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.358,
          "final": 4.405,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.732,
          "final": 0.8403,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3797,
          "final": 3.3797,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1921,
          "final": 1.1921,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 46.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.4130434782608696,
        "K9": 9.195652173913043,
        "HR9": 1.3695652173913044,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.000251287194822,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.9389,
          "BB": 0.4126,
          "SO": 1.1913,
          "HR": 0.1571
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.001,
        "role_avg_IP": 5.226,
        "recent_avg_IP": 4.467
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 34.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8718,
          "prior_weight": 0.1282
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0027,
          "run_prevention": 0.9885,
          "strikeout": 1.0052
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.99,
          "homer_factor": 1.0144,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9898,
          "quality_score": 0.1206
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 0.9982,
          "BB": 1.0548,
          "SO": 0.8252,
          "HR": 0.9055
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.008,
          "SO": 0.935,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0019,
        "before": {
          "H": 4.216,
          "BB": 1.853,
          "SO": 5.441,
          "HR": 0.706,
          "ER": 2.187,
          "ERA": 4.321
        },
        "after": {
          "H": 4.216,
          "BB": 1.8678,
          "SO": 5.0873,
          "HR": 0.706,
          "ER": 2.1911,
          "ERA": 4.329
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Steven Kwan",
            "plate_appearances": 4.365,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0522,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.4546,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.4567,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.3989,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.042,
              "BB": 1.492,
              "SO": 0.4514,
              "HR": 0.4031
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
            "plate_appearances": 4.481,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9687,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.2451,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.6183,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.8487,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9593,
              "BB": 1.2771,
              "SO": 0.6112,
              "HR": 0.8577
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Chase DeLauter",
            "plate_appearances": 4.268,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0795,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.1728,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.6794,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.9568,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.069,
              "BB": 1.2029,
              "SO": 0.6716,
              "HR": 0.9669
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jo Adell",
            "plate_appearances": 4.287,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.003,
            "H_platoon": 0.9929,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.6883,
            "BB_platoon": 0.9515,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.0849,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0163,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.0863,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9986,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9959,
              "BB": 0.6549,
              "SO": 1.1026,
              "HR": 1.0848
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Nathaniel Lowe",
            "plate_appearances": 3.874,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.005,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.0538,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.02,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.138,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9953,
              "BB": 1.0809,
              "SO": 1.0083,
              "HR": 1.1501
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Travis Bazzana",
            "plate_appearances": 3.88,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.975,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.2063,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.927,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.9613,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": 9.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9655,
              "BB": 1.2373,
              "SO": 0.9163,
              "HR": 0.9715
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Patrick Bailey",
            "plate_appearances": 3.832,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9708,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.9153,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.1796,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.0382,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0106,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9614,
              "BB": 0.9388,
              "SO": 1.166,
              "HR": 1.0492
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Petey Halpin",
            "plate_appearances": 3.637,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9855,
            "H_platoon": 0.9903,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.6616,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0257,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.9014,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9885,
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      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 5
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261010_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026101020261010_CHW@CLEhomeGavin WilliamsGavin WilliamsTrue4.25.2310-12/14/210/12
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
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      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
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    "savant": {
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    },
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        "line": {
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      },
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          "components": {
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        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 4.2,
      "H": 2,
      "R": 1,
      "ER": 1,
      "BB": 4,
      "SO": 10,
      "HR": 0,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261010_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}