Continuous postgame learning

daily_20261008 · dates 20261008 · generated 2026-10-09T09:12:05.594321+00:00

1-0

Winner picks · 100.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

2/2

Starter ER within ±1

0/2

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20261008	2	1	1	1	0	2	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	2	applied games: 2formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	2	available games: 2
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	2	variance multipliers: [2.25]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	2	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	2	configured window: 10last 10 games: 2observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	2	settled games: 1metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.495.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	1	50.5%	100.0%	-49.5%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	1	2.7145	5.1472	5.429	0.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	1	2.5	5.0	5.0	0.0%	-0.2145	-0.429
enhanced_prediction	1	2.5	5.0	3.0	100.0%	-0.2145	-2.429
kpi_layer	1	2.5	5.0	3.0	100.0%	-0.2145	-2.429
embedded_savant_run_environment	1	2.5	5.0	3.0	100.0%	-0.2145	-2.429
fundamental_edge_target_review	1	2.5	5.0	3.0	100.0%	-0.2145	-2.429
capped_target	1	2.5	5.0	3.0	100.0%	-0.2145	-2.429
simulation_result	1	2.5	5.0	3.0	100.0%	-0.2145	-2.429
published_final	1	2.5	5.0	3.0	100.0%	-0.2145	-2.429

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 1,
  "team_run_mae": 2.5,
  "total_run_mae": 5.0,
  "margin_mae": 5.0,
  "winner_hits": 0,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.0,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.2145,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.429
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

insufficient_sample sample=0

No settled miss predictions were available.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "top_stage": null,
  "reason": "No settled miss predictions were available.",
  "ranking": [],
  "interpretation": "No attribution claim can be made without settled games."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=1

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	2.0	2.0	2.0	1	1	0	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.429	0.429	0.429	1	1	0	reinforced final pick
kpi_layer	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.429,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.429,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.429,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=1

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	1	1	1.0
[0.525, 0.550)	0	0
[0.550, 0.600)	0	0
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 1,
    "misses": 0,
    "accuracy": 1.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=2

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20261008	2	0.5051	8.0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20261008",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5051,
      "mean_predicted_total": 8.0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=1

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	1	1	0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20261008_CLE@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 5 - 4 CHW

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 50.6% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 45.0% · n=571

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1605

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.711918501925803-5.140895541166179	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer	5.0-4.0	Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.506495,
    "sample_size": 571,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5499,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.526027,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2685,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1605
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02104144036995725
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02021519902748303
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02008076628165565
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01967980397901703
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01951169966886091
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.062047030815691795,
      "1": 0.09133807824158416,
      "2": 0.11978568715517415,
      "3": 0.13995234508474366,
      "4": 0.14567251698748013,
      "5": 0.13508193125053283,
      "6": 0.1115935492546071,
      "7": 0.08213024396284029,
      "8": 0.053850448884133796,
      "9": 0.0314555827554185,
      "10": 0.016369233199743146,
      "11": 0.007588940168275316,
      "12": 0.003134412239775193
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.060592352614690516,
      "1": 0.08928173969288443,
      "2": 0.11742419497162294,
      "3": 0.13784869443411552,
      "4": 0.14444344619764937,
      "5": 0.13509620336077818,
      "6": 0.11278168145877458,
      "7": 0.08403962477505829,
      "8": 0.055895875457698856,
      "9": 0.03318375581463857,
      "10": 0.017584152181858034,
      "11": 0.008317014274801904,
      "12": 0.003511264765428741
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0005,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.03,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.04,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0005,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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    },
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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  ]
}

20261008_TB@NYY

Official result pending · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Official result pending

PickTB

Published scoreTB 4 - 3 NYY

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 45.0% · n=567

H2H base featurehome net 14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1757

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.377499254087203-4.138449437843917	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer	4.0-3.0	Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.010308,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505154,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494846,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505154
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010308,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.5051535924999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
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    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5485,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
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    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.1757
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02977446606730336
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.028291716375412546
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.027913743424468507
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02728175686900735
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02677285189521744
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.09316346975850749,
          "1": 0.13430692565689223,
          "2": 0.1654310887117755,
          "3": 0.17410122001670134,
          "4": 0.156549782210955,
          "5": 0.12027326143197681,
          "6": 0.07894991642777797,
          "7": 0.04427924713997791,
          "8": 0.02121850338921779,
          "9": 0.008687508358355809,
          "10": 0.003039076897862196
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08932475304197016,
          "1": 0.12911979264795462,
          "2": 0.16033054462105878,
          "3": 0.1710181356824905,
          "4": 0.1567005496365289,
          "5": 0.12333925586552884,
          "6": 0.08339395675466021,
          "7": 0.048436225047839905,
          "8": 0.02416620463792515,
          "9": 0.01035735975013837,
          "10": 0.003813222313904249
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.377499254087203,
      "home_runs": 4.138449437843917,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 4.0,
      "home_runs": 3.0,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20261008	20261008_CLE@CHW	CLE	50.5%	50.6%	55.0%	45.0%	5.0-4.0	9-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.506495, "sample_size": 571, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5499, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.526027, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0288, "away_run_delta": -0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2685, "recent_quality_edge": -0.04, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1605 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02104144036995725 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02021519902748303 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02008076628165565 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01967980397901703 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01951169966886091 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.062047030815691795, "1": 0.09133807824158416, "2": 0.11978568715517415, "3": 0.13995234508474366, "4": 0.14567251698748013, "5": 0.13508193125053283, "6": 0.1115935492546071, "7": 0.08213024396284029, "8": 0.053850448884133796, "9": 0.0314555827554185, "10": 0.016369233199743146, "11": 0.007588940168275316, "12": 0.003134412239775193 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.060592352614690516, "1": 0.08928173969288443, "2": 0.11742419497162294, "3": 0.13784869443411552, "4": 0.14444344619764937, "5": 0.13509620336077818, "6": 0.11278168145877458, "7": 0.08403962477505829, "8": 0.055895875457698856, "9": 0.03318375581463857, "10": 0.017584152181858034, "11": 0.008317014274801904, "12": 0.003511264765428741 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0005, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.03, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261008	20261008_TB@NYY	TB	50.5%	46.0%	54.9%	45.0%	4.0-3.0	Official result pending	void_not_on_official_schedule	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 567, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5485, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.49988, "published_confidence": 0.505154, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": 2.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0808, "away_run_delta": -0.0808, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2853, "recent_quality_edge": -0.028, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1757 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02977446606730336 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028291716375412546 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.027913743424468507 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02728175686900735 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02677285189521744 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09316346975850749, "1": 0.13430692565689223, "2": 0.1654310887117755, "3": 0.17410122001670134, "4": 0.156549782210955, "5": 0.12027326143197681, "6": 0.07894991642777797, "7": 0.04427924713997791, "8": 0.02121850338921779, "9": 0.008687508358355809, "10": 0.003039076897862196 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08932475304197016, "1": 0.12911979264795462, "2": 0.16033054462105878, "3": 0.1710181356824905, "4": 0.1567005496365289, "5": 0.12333925586552884, "6": 0.08339395675466021, "7": 0.048436225047839905, "8": 0.02416620463792515, "9": 0.01035735975013837, "10": 0.003813222313904249 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 NYY", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 NYY", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0258, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.182, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1757, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Date

Game

Pick

Final confidence

Raw confidence

Empirical hit rate

Empirical weight

Pred A-H

Actual A-H

Result

Largest recorded movement

Pipeline

Roadmap signals

20261008

20261008_CLE@CHW

CLE

50.5%

50.6%

55.0%

45.0%

5.0-4.0

9-5

hit

Enhanced Prediction (2.0)

enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Signals

{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.506495,
    "sample_size": 571,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5499,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.526027,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2685,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1605
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02104144036995725
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02021519902748303
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02008076628165565
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01967980397901703
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01951169966886091
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.062047030815691795,
      "1": 0.09133807824158416,
      "2": 0.11978568715517415,
      "3": 0.13995234508474366,
      "4": 0.14567251698748013,
      "5": 0.13508193125053283,
      "6": 0.1115935492546071,
      "7": 0.08213024396284029,
      "8": 0.053850448884133796,
      "9": 0.0314555827554185,
      "10": 0.016369233199743146,
      "11": 0.007588940168275316,
      "12": 0.003134412239775193
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.060592352614690516,
      "1": 0.08928173969288443,
      "2": 0.11742419497162294,
      "3": 0.13784869443411552,
      "4": 0.14444344619764937,
      "5": 0.13509620336077818,
      "6": 0.11278168145877458,
      "7": 0.08403962477505829,
      "8": 0.055895875457698856,
      "9": 0.03318375581463857,
      "10": 0.017584152181858034,
      "11": 0.008317014274801904,
      "12": 0.003511264765428741
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0005,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.03,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}

20261008

20261008_TB@NYY

50.5%

46.0%

54.9%

45.0%

4.0-3.0

Official result pending

void_not_on_official_schedule

Enhanced Prediction (1.0)

enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Signals

{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 567,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5485,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.49988,
    "published_confidence": 0.505154,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2853,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.028,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1757
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02977446606730336
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028291716375412546
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027913743424468507
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02728175686900735
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02677285189521744
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09316346975850749,
      "1": 0.13430692565689223,
      "2": 0.1654310887117755,
      "3": 0.17410122001670134,
      "4": 0.156549782210955,
      "5": 0.12027326143197681,
      "6": 0.07894991642777797,
      "7": 0.04427924713997791,
      "8": 0.02121850338921779,
      "9": 0.008687508358355809,
      "10": 0.003039076897862196
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08932475304197016,
      "1": 0.12911979264795462,
      "2": 0.16033054462105878,
      "3": 0.1710181356824905,
      "4": 0.1567005496365289,
      "5": 0.12333925586552884,
      "6": 0.08339395675466021,
      "7": 0.048436225047839905,
      "8": 0.02416620463792515,
      "9": 0.01035735975013837,
      "10": 0.003813222313904249
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 NYY",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 NYY",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0258,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.182,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1757,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 2.0 }
R	{ "mae": 1.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.0 }
ER	{ "mae": 0.5, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.5, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -1.5 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.0 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.5, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 7.0, "mae_innings": 2.3333, "bias_outs": 7.0 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20261008

20261008_CLE@CHW

away

Parker Messick

True

5.0

2.1

-8

-1

5/2

3/4

4/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5961538461538463,
      "WHIP": 1.06993006993007,
      "IP": 190.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5409,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.954,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 0.9086,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.274,
      "xwoba": 0.275,
      "barrel_percent": 5.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.3,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 81,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 190.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.596,
      "season_WHIP": 1.07,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "report_date": "20261008",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 33,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 428.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 85.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0423,
            "WHIP": 1.3099,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33803,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05634,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25352,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09859,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08451
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 63.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 930.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 6.3,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.1481,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90741,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24074,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09259
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 33,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 190.2,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 59.0,
            "H": 153.0,
            "BB": 51.0,
            "SO": 199.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 765.0,
            "Pitches": 3035.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6667,
            "R": 1.7879,
            "H": 4.6364,
            "BB": 1.5455,
            "SO": 6.0303,
            "HR": 0.5455,
            "BF": 23.1818,
            "Pitches": 91.9697
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5962,
            "WHIP": 1.0699,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28846,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80245,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26748,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04371,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09441
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.773,
        "predicted_H": 4.997,
        "predicted_BB": 1.403,
        "predicted_SO": 5.678,
        "predicted_HR": 0.506,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0585,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2263
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4056,
      "form_weight": 0.5944,
      "form_reliability": 0.8684,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.773,
          "final": 1.4595,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.997,
          "final": 4.5926,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.403,
          "final": 1.6451,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.678,
          "final": 5.403,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.506,
          "final": 0.3008,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0585,
          "final": 3.0585,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2263,
          "final": 1.2263,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 63,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.666666666666667,
        "WHIP": 1.1481481481481484,
        "K9": 10.500000000000002,
        "HR9": 0.8333333333333335,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7885506273386286,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.9467,
          "BB": 0.2596,
          "SO": 1.0749,
          "HR": 0.0888
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.0027,
        "role_avg_IP": 5.778,
        "recent_avg_IP": 4.733
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 33.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8684,
          "prior_weight": 0.1316
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0002,
          "run_prevention": 1.0015,
          "strikeout": 0.9948
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 0.9086,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.954,
          "quality_score": 0.5409
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0029,
          "BB": 1.1307,
          "SO": 1.2219,
          "HR": 1.1428
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.0186,
          "SO": 1.0727,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0034,
        "before": {
          "H": 4.595,
          "BB": 1.259,
          "SO": 5.182,
          "HR": 0.433,
          "ER": 1.541,
          "ERA": 2.862
        },
        "after": {
          "H": 4.595,
          "BB": 1.2824,
          "SO": 5.5587,
          "HR": 0.433,
          "ER": 1.5462,
          "ERA": 2.871
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Chase Meidroth",
            "plate_appearances": 4.253,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0735,
            "H_platoon": 1.012,
            "H_bvp": 1.0103,
            "BB_batter": 1.0581,
            "BB_platoon": 1.06,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.9985,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9783,
            "SO_bvp": 0.9924,
            "HR_batter": 0.892,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0116,
            "HR_bvp": 0.925,
            "bvp_at_bats": 15.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0976,
              "BB": 1.1216,
              "SO": 0.9694,
              "HR": 0.8347
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Randal Grichuk",
            "plate_appearances": 4.146,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0819,
            "H_platoon": 1.012,
            "H_bvp": 1.0495,
            "BB_batter": 0.6317,
            "BB_platoon": 1.06,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.9886,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9783,
            "SO_bvp": 0.9597,
            "HR_batter": 1.3663,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0116,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9351,
            "bvp_at_bats": 12.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.1491,
              "BB": 0.6696,
              "SO": 0.9282,
              "HR": 1.2924
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Miguel Vargas",
            "plate_appearances": 4.128,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9705,
            "H_platoon": 1.012,
            "H_bvp": 0.9722,
            "BB_batter": 1.5813,
            "BB_platoon": 1.06,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.8235,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9783,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0067,
            "HR_batter": 1.3634,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0116,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0452,
            "bvp_at_bats": 14.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9548,
              "BB": 1.6762,
              "SO": 0.811,
              "HR": 1.4416
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Munetaka Murakami",
            "plate_appearances": 4.202,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.8899,
            "H_platoon": 1.0333,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.7067,
            "BB_platoon": 0.9101,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.5628,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0429,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9086,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0229,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 5.0,
      "H": 5,
      "R": 4,
      "ER": 3,
      "BB": 3,
      "SO": 4,
      "HR": 1,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 3
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261008_CLE@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261008

20261008_CLE@CHW

home

Hagen Smith

True

2.2

0.2

-6

1/0

1/3

3/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.0485436893203883,
      "WHIP": 0.9902912621359222,
      "IP": 34.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.556,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.556,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4816,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9591,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
      "walk_factor": 1.0477,
      "homer_factor": 0.921,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 37.3,
      "bb_percent": 14.5,
      "woba": 0.211,
      "xwoba": 0.243,
      "barrel_percent": 1.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
      "whiff_percent": 36.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 105,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 34.1,
      "season_ERA": 1.049,
      "season_WHIP": 0.99,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.09,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5864,
        "prior_weight": 0.4136
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696146",
      "report_date": "20261008",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 161.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.6,
            "Pitches": 32.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0,
            "WHIP": 1.2222,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22222,
            "H_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 67.0,
            "Pitches": 276.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 0.7,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 2.1,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.7,
            "Pitches": 27.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2041,
            "WHIP": 1.102,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2449,
            "H_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.67347,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 136.0,
            "Pitches": 575.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 0.65,
            "BB": 1.05,
            "SO": 2.35,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.8,
            "Pitches": 28.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.0485,
            "WHIP": 0.9903,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.1165,
            "H_per_IP": 0.37864,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.61165,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.36893,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.02,
        "predicted_H": 2.09,
        "predicted_BB": 1.654,
        "predicted_SO": 3.273,
        "predicted_HR": 0.186,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0147,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2294
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5247,
      "form_weight": 0.4753,
      "form_reliability": 0.5864,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.09,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5864,
        "prior_weight": 0.4136
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.02,
          "final": 1.5343,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.09,
          "final": 2.5675,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.654,
          "final": 1.3108,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.273,
          "final": 3.1297,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.186,
          "final": 0.0884,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0147,
          "final": 3.0147,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2294,
          "final": 1.2294,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 16.1,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 7,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 21,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 2.204081632653061,
        "WHIP": 1.1020408163265305,
        "K9": 11.57142857142857,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8549807438135085,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.8625,
          "BB": 0.3834,
          "SO": 0.9631,
          "HR": 0.1088
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 0.9965,
        "role_avg_IP": 2.556,
        "recent_avg_IP": 2.556
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.09,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5864,
          "prior_weight": 0.4136
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0027,
          "run_prevention": 0.9886,
          "strikeout": 1.0052
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
          "walk_factor": 1.0477,
          "homer_factor": 0.921,
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          "quality_score": 0.4816
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0373,
          "BB": 1.0065,
          "SO": 0.8222,
          "HR": 0.9144
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.001,
          "SO": 0.9338,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0003,
        "before": {
          "H": 3.357,
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          "SO": 3.813,
          "HR": 0.423,
          "ER": 1.467,
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        "after": {
          "H": 3.357,
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          "SO": 3.5606,
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          "ER": 1.4674,
          "ERA": 3.345
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Steven Kwan",
            "plate_appearances": 4.393,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0528,
            "H_platoon": 1.0333,
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            "BB_batter": 1.4337,
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            "SO_platoon": 1.0429,
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            "HR_batter": 0.4016,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9608,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0879,
              "BB": 1.3048,
              "SO": 0.4797,
              "HR": 0.3859
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
            "plate_appearances": 4.453,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9647,
            "H_platoon": 1.012,
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            "BB_batter": 1.2545,
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            "HR_batter": 0.8131,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9763,
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              "SO": 0.6099,
              "HR": 0.8225
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Chase DeLauter",
            "plate_appearances": 4.268,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0803,
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            "SO_platoon": 1.0429,
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            "HR_batter": 0.9625,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9608,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.1163,
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              "SO": 0.7142,
              "HR": 0.9248
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jo Adell",
            "plate_appearances": 4.258,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0033,
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            "BB_batter": 0.6785,
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            "HR_batter": 1.0919,
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              "H": 1.0153,
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              "HR": 1.1046
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Nathaniel Lowe",
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            "H_batter": 1.0008,
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            "HR_batter": 1.146,
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              "H": 1.0341,
              "BB": 0.9489,
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              "HR": 1.1011
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Angel Mart\u00ednez",
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            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0314,
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            "BB_batter": 0.5013,
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            "SO_batter": 1.037,
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            "HR_batter": 1.2476,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
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              "H": 1.0438,
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              "SO": 1.0145,
              "HR": 1.2621
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Travis Bazzana",
            "plate_appearances": 3.804,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9742,
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            "BB_batter": 1.2138,
            "BB_platoon": 0.9101,
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            "SO_batter": 0.9334,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0429,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.9662,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9608,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0066,
              "BB": 1.1047,
              "SO": 0.9734,
              "HR": 0.9283
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Austin Hedges",
            "plate_appearances": 3.413,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9971,
            "H_platoon": 1.012,
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            "BB_batter": 1.146,
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            "SO_batter": 0.8703,
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            "HR_batter": 0.9038,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0116,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0091,
              "BB": 1.2148,
              "SO": 0.8514,
              "HR": 0.9143
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Brayan Rocchio",
            "plate_appearances": 3.593,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0264,
            "H_platoon": 1.012,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.7773,
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            "SO_batter": 0.6829,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9783,
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            "HR_batter": 0.8134,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0116,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0387,
              "BB": 0.8239,
              "SO": 0.6681,
              "HR": 0.8228
            }
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "step": "kpi_run_environment",
        "description": "KPI blend withheld: values_fresh; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
        "applied": false,
        "kpi_staff_exposure": {
          "usage": "starter",
          "batters_faced": 16.693
        },
        "player_attribution": null
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "market_blend",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
        "stats_blended": {
          "ER": {
            "model": 1.4674,
            "market_implied": 0.4674,
            "market_multiplier": 0.3185,
            "weight": 0.4939,
            "effective_multiplier": 0.5683,
            "lines": [
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            "books": 2,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_earned_runs",
                "point": 0.5,
                "books": 2,
                "market_p_over": 0.3734,
                "model_p_over": 0.7695,
                "implied_multiplier": 0.3185
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            ]
          },
          "H": {
            "model": 3.357,
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            "market_multiplier": 0.4315,
            "weight": 0.4985,
            "effective_multiplier": 0.6577,
            "lines": [
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            ],
            "books": 3,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_hits_allowed",
                "point": 1.5,
                "books": 3,
                "market_p_over": 0.4248,
                "model_p_over": 0.8482,
                "implied_multiplier": 0.4315
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            ]
          },
          "OUTS": {
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      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
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  "provenance": {
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    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}