Continuous postgame learning

daily_20261007 · dates 20261007 · generated 2026-10-08T09:14:38.123315+00:00

3-1

Winner picks · 75.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

3/8

Starter ER within ±1

5/8

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20261007	4	4	0	3	1	4	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	4	applied games: 4formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	4	available games: 4
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	4	variance multipliers: [2.25]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	4	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	4	configured window: 10last 10 games: 4observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	4	settled games: 4metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.2272.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	4	52.3%	75.0%	-22.7%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	4	1.8898	3.7594	2.6745	75.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	4	1.875	3.75	2.75	50.0%	-0.0148	0.0755
enhanced_prediction	4	2.0	3.0	3.0	50.0%	0.1102	0.3255
kpi_layer	4	2.0	3.0	3.0	50.0%	0.1102	0.3255
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	2.125	3.25	2.75	50.0%	0.2352	0.0755
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	2.375	3.75	2.25	75.0%	0.4852	-0.4245
capped_target	4	2.375	3.75	2.25	75.0%	0.4852	-0.4245
simulation_result	4	2.375	3.75	2.25	75.0%	0.4852	-0.4245
published_final	4	2.375	3.75	2.25	75.0%	0.4852	-0.4245

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
  "games": 4,
  "team_run_mae": 2.375,
  "total_run_mae": 3.75,
  "margin_mae": 2.25,
  "winner_hits": 3,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.75,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.4852,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.4245
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=1

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
variance_applied	0.3911	0.0	0.3911	0.3911	1	1	0	0	reinforced final pick
enhanced_prediction	0.0	-1.0	-1.0	1.0	1	0	1	0	moved away from final pick
kpi_layer	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "top_stage": "variance_applied",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.3911,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.3911,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.3911,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "moved away from final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=3

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
fundamental_edge_target_review	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	3	1	0	2	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	3	1	0	2	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.4476	-0.3585	0.0891	0.8061	3	2	1	0	reinforced final pick
enhanced_prediction	0.0	-2.0	-2.0	2.0	3	0	2	1	moved away from final pick
kpi_layer	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 3,
  "top_stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.4476,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.3585,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0891,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.8061,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "moved away from final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=4

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	2	2	0	1.0
[0.525, 0.550)	2	1	1	0.5
[0.550, 0.600)	0	0	0
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 2,
    "hits": 1,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.5
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=4

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20261007	4	0.5228	9.25	0.75

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20261007",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5228,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.25,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=4

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	4	3	1	0.75

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20261007_CLE@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 5 - 4 CHW

Final confidence53.5%

Calibrationraw 53.5% → blended 55.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 58.2% · weight 45.0% · n=464

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1605

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.629906778357269-2.801656780983749	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer	5-4	Savant KPI blend applied to the model target
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.070258,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.535129,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.464871,
    "away_win_probability": 0.535129
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.070258,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.5351286725,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.534519,
    "sample_size": 464,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5819,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.555841,
    "published_confidence": 0.535129,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2685,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1605
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017682571406886477
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01766788067777547
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01748964662303455
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017475116176366247
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01615689013542389
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05092677718783937,
      "1": 0.07550747472048212,
      "2": 0.10117696873421211,
      "3": 0.12252405090665044,
      "4": 0.1340938918974087,
      "5": 0.1326308674019953,
      "6": 0.11855726976450373,
      "7": 0.09577667025838944,
      "8": 0.0699260899971712,
      "9": 0.04613884521810992,
      "10": 0.02751326694257132,
      "11": 0.014827419282536827,
      "12": 0.007221658384356077,
      "13": 0.003178749303773532
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04918643147186386,
      "1": 0.0730093256033763,
      "2": 0.09816074872009906,
      "3": 0.11954292874158819,
      "4": 0.13186709071293787,
      "5": 0.13175753517015262,
      "6": 0.11924522642548871,
      "7": 0.09775366459122385,
      "8": 0.07258578795794711,
      "9": 0.048819873302705485,
      "10": 0.02974186542042328,
      "11": 0.01641217972377906,
      "12": 0.008203342191200962,
      "13": 0.003713999967213697
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CLE"
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
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    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.008,
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      "thresholds": {
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
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      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
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    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend applied to the model target"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261007_LAD@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 6 - 4 ATL

Final confidence50.7%

Calibrationraw 53.5% → blended 54.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 45.0% · n=612

H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6096

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.695043839817618-3.9708099350753012	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer	5-4	Savant KPI blend applied to the model target
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.014354,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.507177,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.492823,
    "away_win_probability": 0.507177
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.014354,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.50717655,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.534804,
    "sample_size": 612,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5474,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.540472,
    "published_confidence": 0.507177,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.664,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6096
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029489293489311747
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027917437096966608
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02755127327653959
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027151150086434102
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026653902819991263
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09211252309380141,
      "1": 0.13288998686610193,
      "2": 0.16404895161360217,
      "3": 0.17328552273421471,
      "4": 0.15662414851489012,
      "5": 0.12113308721911,
      "6": 0.08016309371442268,
      "7": 0.045393510879338794,
      "8": 0.02199483451469634,
      "9": 0.00911916858374983,
      "10": 0.003235172266072179
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08833595639220453,
      "1": 0.1277785247823392,
      "2": 0.15899350875836135,
      "3": 0.17017747948016648,
      "4": 0.15668446883516363,
      "5": 0.12409405660453059,
      "6": 0.08454290824049321,
      "7": 0.04954553863778199,
      "8": 0.024976587112597547,
      "9": 0.010830856563193806,
      "10": 0.004040114593167503
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1387,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.314,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5072,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.62,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5072,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.664,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.1387,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-10-07T09:21:29.935210+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    },
    "kpi_runtime_version": "kpi_runtime_v4",
    "advanced_matchup_version": "advanced_individual_matchup_v1"
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065"
    },
    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 0.5,
        "new_value": 0.45,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-07T21:47:28.239847+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-07T22:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.491557,
      "confidence": 0.508443,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance"
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
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      "confidence": 0.508443,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        },
        "kpi_runtime_version": "kpi_runtime_v4",
        "advanced_matchup_version": "advanced_individual_matchup_v1"
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.534804,
        "sample_size": 612,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5474,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "blended_confidence": 0.541102
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.535551,
        "final_confidence": 0.5084,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5084,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.981429,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 612,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5474,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.546,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.6096,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.491557,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.427612,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.981429,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.491557,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.508443
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 13,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 13.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.6,
        "home_run_delta": 0.075,
        "away_run_delta": -0.075,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "ATL",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 94,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.5802469135802469,
          "runs_scored": 742,
          "runs_allowed": 626,
          "run_differential": 116,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.7160493827160493,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 100,
          "losses": 62,
          "win_pct": 0.6172839506172839,
          "runs_scored": 801,
          "runs_allowed": 600,
          "run_differential": 201,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.2407407407407407,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.5247,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.037,
        "quality_edge": -0.6096,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.664,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.6096
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.256,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.256,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.6096,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.853,
          "home_runs": 1.95,
          "home_win_probability": 0.3382
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.029489293489311747
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.027917437096966608
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 2,
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          {
            "home_runs": 3,
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            "probability": 0.027151150086434102
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.026653902819991263
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.09211252309380141,
          "1": 0.13288998686610193,
          "2": 0.16404895161360217,
          "3": 0.17328552273421471,
          "4": 0.15662414851489012,
          "5": 0.12113308721911,
          "6": 0.08016309371442268,
          "7": 0.045393510879338794,
          "8": 0.02199483451469634,
          "9": 0.00911916858374983,
          "10": 0.003235172266072179
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08833595639220453,
          "1": 0.1277785247823392,
          "2": 0.15899350875836135,
          "3": 0.17017747948016648,
          "4": 0.15668446883516363,
          "5": 0.12409405660453059,
          "6": 0.08454290824049321,
          "7": 0.04954553863778199,
          "8": 0.024976587112597547,
          "9": 0.010830856563193806,
          "10": 0.004040114593167503
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.695043839817618,
      "home_runs": 3.9708099350753012,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend applied to the model target"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261007_MIL@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 6 - 5 SD

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 50.4% → blended 52.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 45.0% · n=567

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.723

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.316793501587018-3.9583418010956	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Kpi Layer	4-5	Savant KPI blend applied to the model target
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.504492,
    "sample_size": 567,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5485,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
    "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
    "blended_confidence": 0.524296,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.179,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.723
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02027699864654153
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019270353943855057
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019194832702538276
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019163729559404433
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019112176732514634
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.057878380388167616,
      "1": 0.08543432439696529,
      "2": 0.11296422029027611,
      "3": 0.13379562991725308,
      "4": 0.14195001672048477,
      "5": 0.13490295640999328,
      "6": 0.11484179887848654,
      "7": 0.0875731569195755,
      "8": 0.059818363148433945,
      "9": 0.03660079712742226,
      "10": 0.02006037572285571,
      "11": 0.009848726603451263,
      "12": 0.004331253476634715
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.058821078416750536,
      "1": 0.08677233064039432,
      "2": 0.11452137735737351,
      "3": 0.13522247581227848,
      "4": 0.14284604619997457,
      "5": 0.13500336246624,
      "6": 0.1141505391270846,
      "7": 0.08635119834475068,
      "8": 0.058440751389698314,
      "9": 0.03538508423048862,
      "10": 0.01916821608854328,
      "11": 0.009289667716227187,
      "12": 0.004027872210195613
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0447,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.334,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.723,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5591,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.723,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.124,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0447,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.1667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-668e4305abca59bc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:02895b398be5e25b874cb24573f6272d7b4e2c440e5dad0b021995c628ed5ed3",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-10-07T09:21:29.935210+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.45,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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  ]
}

20261007_TB@NYY

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreTB 3 - 4 NYY

Final confidence54.4%

Calibrationraw 48.4% → blended 52.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 45.0% · n=393

H2H base featurehome net 14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1757

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.959661691282892-5.5685220273548195	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer	3-4	Savant KPI blend applied to the model target
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.088032,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.544016,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.544016,
    "away_win_probability": 0.455984
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.088032,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.54401626125,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.483821,
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    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674,
    "empirical_weight": 0.45,
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    "blended_confidence": 0.521431,
    "published_confidence": 0.544016,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "evidence": [
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      },
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        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
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      },
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      },
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2853,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.028,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1757
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024571149423370492
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    "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.959661691282892,
      "home_runs": 5.5685220273548195,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend applied to the model target"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20261007	20261007_CLE@CHW	CLE	53.5%	53.5%	58.2%	45.0%	5.0-4.0	9-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.534519, "sample_size": 464, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5819, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.555841, "published_confidence": 0.535129, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0288, "away_run_delta": -0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2685, "recent_quality_edge": -0.04, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1605 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017682571406886477 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01766788067777547 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01748964662303455 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017475116176366247 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01615689013542389 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05092677718783937, "1": 0.07550747472048212, "2": 0.10117696873421211, "3": 0.12252405090665044, "4": 0.1340938918974087, "5": 0.1326308674019953, "6": 0.11855726976450373, "7": 0.09577667025838944, "8": 0.0699260899971712, "9": 0.04613884521810992, "10": 0.02751326694257132, "11": 0.014827419282536827, "12": 0.007221658384356077, "13": 0.003178749303773532 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04918643147186386, "1": 0.0730093256033763, "2": 0.09816074872009906, "3": 0.11954292874158819, "4": 0.13186709071293787, "5": 0.13175753517015262, "6": 0.11924522642548871, "7": 0.09775366459122385, "8": 0.07258578795794711, "9": 0.048819873302705485, "10": 0.02974186542042328, "11": 0.01641217972377906, "12": 0.008203342191200962, "13": 0.003713999967213697 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.008, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.03, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261007	20261007_LAD@ATL	LAD	50.7%	53.5%	54.7%	45.0%	6.0-4.0	4-1	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.534804, "sample_size": 612, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5474, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.540472, "published_confidence": 0.507177, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": 2.6, "home_run_delta": 0.075, "away_run_delta": -0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.5802, "recent_quality_edge": -0.664, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6096 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029489293489311747 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027917437096966608 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02755127327653959 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.027151150086434102 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026653902819991263 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09211252309380141, "1": 0.13288998686610193, "2": 0.16404895161360217, "3": 0.17328552273421471, "4": 0.15662414851489012, "5": 0.12113308721911, "6": 0.08016309371442268, "7": 0.045393510879338794, "8": 0.02199483451469634, "9": 0.00911916858374983, "10": 0.003235172266072179 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08833595639220453, "1": 0.1277785247823392, "2": 0.15899350875836135, "3": 0.17017747948016648, "4": 0.15668446883516363, "5": 0.12409405660453059, "6": 0.08454290824049321, "7": 0.04954553863778199, "8": 0.024976587112597547, "9": 0.010830856563193806, "10": 0.004040114593167503 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 ATL", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1387, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.314, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261007	20261007_MIL@SD	MIL	50.5%	50.4%	54.9%	45.0%	6.0-5.0	3-1	hit	Fundamental Edge Target Review (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.504492, "sample_size": 567, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5485, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.524296, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 1.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0404, "away_run_delta": -0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 9.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.179, "recent_quality_edge": 0.124, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.723 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02027699864654153 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019270353943855057 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019194832702538276 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019163729559404433 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019112176732514634 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.057878380388167616, "1": 0.08543432439696529, "2": 0.11296422029027611, "3": 0.13379562991725308, "4": 0.14195001672048477, "5": 0.13490295640999328, "6": 0.11484179887848654, "7": 0.0875731569195755, "8": 0.059818363148433945, "9": 0.03660079712742226, "10": 0.02006037572285571, "11": 0.009848726603451263, "12": 0.004331253476634715 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.058821078416750536, "1": 0.08677233064039432, "2": 0.11452137735737351, "3": 0.13522247581227848, "4": 0.14284604619997457, "5": 0.13500336246624, "6": 0.1141505391270846, "7": 0.08635119834475068, "8": 0.058440751389698314, "9": 0.03538508423048862, "10": 0.01916821608854328, "11": 0.009289667716227187, "12": 0.004027872210195613 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 6 - 5 SD", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0447, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.334, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.723, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261007	20261007_TB@NYY	NYY	54.4%	48.4%	56.7%	45.0%	3.0-4.0	4-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.483821, "sample_size": 393, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674, "empirical_weight": 0.45, "empirical_max_weight": 0.45, "empirical_sample_scale": 200.0, "blended_confidence": 0.521431, "published_confidence": 0.544016, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": 2.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0808, "away_run_delta": -0.0808, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2853, "recent_quality_edge": -0.028, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1757 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024571149423370492 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024254044154911086 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023920224256027942 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023611519563234765 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02206000976023823 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07360930233901197, "1": 0.10754056582013177, "2": 0.13786423793583563, "3": 0.15508529613698727, "4": 0.15308382833349696, "5": 0.13259516778739763, "6": 0.10077800843404823, "7": 0.06721149223989481, "8": 0.039333355352088026, "9": 0.020198454734309753, "10": 0.00910154219490888, "11": 0.003598748691889274 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0765518225234127, "1": 0.11161827464051573, "2": 0.14224436687248906, "3": 0.15843635751042914, "4": 0.15423915001522223, "5": 0.13123642713898623, "6": 0.0975964845844931, "7": 0.06343573149970959, "8": 0.036037423291023184, "9": 0.017893426383670735, "10": 0.007765211553087446, "11": 0.002945323986960967 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0142, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.182, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1757, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 1.875, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.875 }
R	{ "mae": 1.375, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.875 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.5, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.0 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.5, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.25 }
SO	{ "mae": 1.375, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.375 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.75, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.25, "mae_innings": 1.0833, "bias_outs": 1.75 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20261007

20261007_CLE@CHW

away

Daniel Espino

True

4.0

0.2

-10

-2

3/2

1/1

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9375,
      "WHIP": 1.3125,
      "IP": 16.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.333,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3987,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9661,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.072,
      "walk_factor": 1.0144,
      "homer_factor": 1.0168,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 38.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.8,
      "woba": 0.299,
      "xwoba": 0.264,
      "barrel_percent": 12.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
      "whiff_percent": 36.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 61,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.304,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3979,
        "prior_weight": 0.6021
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682982",
      "report_date": "20261007",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 18.0,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.2,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 0.6,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 3.6,
            "Pitches": 16.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.0,
            "WHIP": 1.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 1.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 1.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.5
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 11.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 45.0,
            "Pitches": 184.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 4.5,
            "Pitches": 18.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2727,
            "WHIP": 1.1818,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36364,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72727,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45455,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.45455,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18182
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 68.0,
            "Pitches": 285.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.4667,
            "R": 0.4667,
            "H": 0.8667,
            "BB": 0.5333,
            "SO": 1.6667,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 4.5333,
            "Pitches": 19.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9375,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.5625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.691,
        "predicted_H": 2.634,
        "predicted_BB": 1.506,
        "predicted_SO": 3.281,
        "predicted_HR": 0.645,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1651,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4046
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6044,
      "form_weight": 0.3956,
      "form_reliability": 0.3979,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.304,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3979,
        "prior_weight": 0.6021
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.691,
          "final": 3.0865,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.634,
          "final": 2.2508,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.506,
          "final": 2.409,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.281,
          "final": 3.1112,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.645,
          "final": 0.8596,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1651,
          "final": 5.1651,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4046,
          "final": 1.4046,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 11.0,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 16,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.272727272727273,
        "WHIP": 1.1818181818181819,
        "K9": 13.090909090909092,
        "HR9": 1.6363636363636365,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9473142792903005,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.9186,
          "BB": 0.4311,
          "SO": 0.9776,
          "HR": 0.1621
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 0.9965,
        "role_avg_IP": 1.333,
        "recent_avg_IP": 1.333
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.304,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.3979,
          "prior_weight": 0.6021
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0003,
          "run_prevention": 1.0014,
          "strikeout": 0.9948
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 1.072,
          "walk_factor": 1.0144,
          "homer_factor": 1.0168,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9661,
          "quality_score": 0.3987
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
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          "BB": 1.1303,
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            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0076,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0324,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 4.0,
      "H": 3,
      "R": 3,
      "ER": 3,
      "BB": 1,
      "SO": 5,
      "HR": 1,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 51,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261007_CLE@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_CLE@CHW

home

Sean Newcomb

True

3.1

2.0

-4

-2

4/1

1/0

3/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9892857142857143,
      "WHIP": 1.125,
      "IP": 93.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 60,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.533,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0519,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0044,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
      "walk_factor": 0.998,
      "homer_factor": 0.9958,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 22.6,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.285,
      "xwoba": 0.317,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 19,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 93.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.989,
      "season_WHIP": 1.125,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.272,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.794,
        "prior_weight": 0.206
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656794",
      "report_date": "20261007",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 60,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 29.0,
            "Pitches": 123.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 5.8,
            "Pitches": 24.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4545,
            "WHIP": 0.9545,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22727,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 13.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 59.0,
            "Pitches": 255.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.6,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 5.9,
            "Pitches": 25.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.75,
            "WHIP": 1.575,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.75,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 60,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 93.1,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 72.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 380.0,
            "Pitches": 1502.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.5167,
            "R": 0.5667,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.55,
            "SO": 1.45,
            "HR": 0.0667,
            "BF": 6.3333,
            "Pitches": 25.0333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9893,
            "WHIP": 1.125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33214,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35357,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93214,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04286
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.058,
        "predicted_H": 2.057,
        "predicted_BB": 0.766,
        "predicted_SO": 2.44,
        "predicted_HR": 0.291,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1802,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2387
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.437,
      "form_weight": 0.563,
      "form_reliability": 0.794,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.272,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.794,
        "prior_weight": 0.206
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.058,
          "final": 1.0327,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.057,
          "final": 2.4691,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.766,
          "final": 0.8683,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 2.44,
          "final": 4.4329,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.291,
          "final": 0.1638,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1802,
          "final": 4.1802,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2387,
          "final": 1.2387,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 11.2,
        "ER": 9,
        "H": 14,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 13,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 6.942857142857142,
        "WHIP": 1.6285714285714283,
        "K9": 10.028571428571427,
        "HR9": 1.5428571428571427,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.110108438295943,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.7774,
          "BB": 0.3944,
          "SO": 1.0337,
          "HR": 0.0937
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 0.9913,
        "role_avg_IP": 1.778,
        "recent_avg_IP": 1.533
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.272,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.794,
          "prior_weight": 0.206
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0028,
          "run_prevention": 0.9885,
          "strikeout": 1.0052
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
          "walk_factor": 0.998,
          "homer_factor": 0.9958,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0044,
          "quality_score": -0.0519
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0338,
          "BB": 0.9729,
          "SO": 0.8578,
          "HR": 0.9292
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 0.9959,
          "SO": 0.9477,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 0.9988,
        "before": {
          "H": 2.561,
          "BB": 1.299,
          "SO": 3.462,
          "HR": 0.306,
          "ER": 1.188,
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        },
        "after": {
          "H": 2.561,
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          "SO": 3.2809,
          "HR": 0.306,
          "ER": 1.1866,
          "ERA": 3.196
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Steven Kwan",
            "plate_appearances": 4.337,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0542,
            "H_platoon": 1.0338,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.4456,
            "BB_platoon": 0.9097,
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            "SO_batter": 0.4575,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0432,
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            "HR_batter": 0.4041,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9589,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0898,
              "BB": 1.3151,
              "SO": 0.4773,
              "HR": 0.3875
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
            "plate_appearances": 4.425,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9608,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.247,
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            "SO_batter": 0.6287,
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            "HR_batter": 0.8179,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0115,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9726,
              "BB": 1.3213,
              "SO": 0.6148,
              "HR": 0.8273
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Chase DeLauter",
            "plate_appearances": 4.267,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0811,
            "H_platoon": 1.0338,
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            "BB_platoon": 0.9097,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.6906,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0432,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.9682,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9589,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": 5.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.1176,
              "BB": 1.0522,
              "SO": 0.7204,
              "HR": 0.9284
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jo Adell",
            "plate_appearances": 4.258,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9999,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
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            "BB_batter": 0.6684,
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            "HR_batter": 1.0975,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0115,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0122,
              "BB": 0.7082,
              "SO": 1.0635,
              "HR": 1.1101
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Nathaniel Lowe",
            "plate_appearances": 3.958,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0058,
            "H_platoon": 1.0338,
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            "BB_batter": 0.9891,
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            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.1542,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9589,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0398,
              "BB": 0.8998,
              "SO": 1.0865,
              "HR": 1.1068
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Angel Mart\u00ednez",
            "plate_appearances": 4.103,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0356,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.505,
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            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.0173,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9779,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.2547,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0115,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0483,
              "BB": 0.5351,
              "SO": 0.9948,
              "HR": 1.2691
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Travis Bazzana",
            "plate_appearances": 3.86,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9778,
            "H_platoon": 1.0338,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.1858,
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            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.94,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0432,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.9709,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9589,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0108,
              "BB": 1.0787,
              "SO": 0.9806,
              "HR": 0.931
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Patrick Bailey",
            "plate_appearances": 3.748,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.959,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.9066,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0596,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.1924,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9779,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.9961,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0115,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9708,
              "BB": 0.9606,
              "SO": 1.166,
              "HR": 1.0076
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Brayan Rocchio",
            "plate_appearances": 3.565,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.022,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.7819,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0596,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.6873,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9779,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.817,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0115,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0346,
              "BB": 0.8285,
              "SO": 0.6721,
              "HR": 0.8264
            }
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "step": "kpi_run_environment",
        "description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
        "applied": true,
        "kpi_staff_exposure": {
          "usage": "starter",
          "batters_faced": 13.883
        },
        "player_attribution": {
          "home_runs": {
            "model_delta": 0.0656,
            "weighted_stage_delta": 0.0249
          },
          "away_runs": {
            "model_delta": -0.0659,
            "weighted_stage_delta": -0.0224
          },
          "home_win": {
            "model_delta": 0.0363,
            "weighted_stage_delta": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "market_blend",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
        "stats_blended": {
          "SO": {
            "model": 3.2809,
            "market_implied": 1.2816,
            "market_multiplier": 0.3906,
            "weight": 0.5536,
            "effective_multiplier": 0.5943,
            "lines": [
              1.5
            ],
            "books": 2,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_strikeouts",
                "point": 1.5,
                "books": 2,
                "market_p_over": 0.3666,
                "model_p_over": 0.8391,
                "implied_multiplier": 0.3906
              }
            ]
          }
        },
        "expected_before": {
          "SO": 3.2809,
          "H": 2.561,
          "BB": 1.2937,
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          "player_name": "",
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          "source_url": null,
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          "components": {
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        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261007_CLE@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_LAD@ATL

away

Tyler Glasnow

True

5.1

4.2

-2

-1

4/1

0/5

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 13,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.692,
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      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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    "savant": {
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      "strikeout_factor": 1.1031,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
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      "xwoba": 0.263,
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      "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
      "whiff_percent": 32.1
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    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 74.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.527,
      "season_WHIP": 0.946,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607192",
      "report_date": "20261007",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 13,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
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            "Pitches": 461.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 8.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0568,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47727,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64773,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.43182,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06818
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 76.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 858.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 85.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 0.9464,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08929
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        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 98.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.2308,
            "H": 3.4615,
            "BB": 1.9231,
            "SO": 7.5385,
            "HR": 0.5385,
            "BF": 22.1538,
            "Pitches": 88.3846
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 0.9459,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39189,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60811,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33784,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.32432,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09459
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.636,
        "predicted_H": 4.204,
        "predicted_BB": 2.242,
        "predicted_SO": 7.388,
        "predicted_HR": 0.584,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0432,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0987
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "model_weight": 0.4674,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7222,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.636,
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": -4.0,
              "percent_delta": -1.0,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "boost",
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              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.15,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2857,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 5,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 4,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 3,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "percent_delta": -1.0,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          }
        },
        {
          "index": 10,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          }
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "percent_delta": -1.0,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": -0.15,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.1667,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 5,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 3,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "boost",
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "percent_delta": -1.0,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2008,
        "offense_edge": 0.1022,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.021,
        "defense_strength": 0.2112,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1609,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0135,
        "run_prevention": 0.9722,
        "strikeout": 1.0043
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607192",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607192",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 240.0,
            "k_percent": 34.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.245,
            "xwoba": 0.263,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.9446,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9414,
            "whiff_percent": 32.1,
            "swing_percent": 42.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7516,
            "command_and_miss": 1.135,
            "regression_edge": -0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9857,
            "bb_edge": 0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0556
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6422,
          "sample_weight": 0.96,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9454,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1031,
          "walk_factor": 0.9904,
          "homer_factor": 0.9846,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "607192",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9476,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9476,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9908,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9852,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.099,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 5.1,
      "H": 4,
      "R": 2,
      "ER": 2,
      "BB": 0,
      "SO": 5,
      "HR": 2,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261007_LAD@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_LAD@ATL

home

Tyler Mahle

True

5.0

6.1

-2

6/3

2/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8653846153846154,
      "WHIP": 1.2243589743589745,
      "IP": 156.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.571,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0461,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 0.9832,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.311,
      "xwoba": 0.306,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 22,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641816",
      "report_date": "20261007",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 475.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3226,
            "WHIP": 0.9677,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25806,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80645,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16129,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70968,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 919.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 91.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9076,
            "WHIP": 0.962,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21196,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79891,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16304,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88043,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09783
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.0,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 144.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 143.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 642.0,
            "Pitches": 2497.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3929,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.1429,
            "BB": 1.6786,
            "SO": 5.1071,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 22.9286,
            "Pitches": 89.1786
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8654,
            "WHIP": 1.2244,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42949,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30128,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12821
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.895,
        "predicted_H": 5.167,
        "predicted_BB": 1.328,
        "predicted_SO": 5.036,
        "predicted_HR": 0.669,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8099,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0699
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.895,
          "final": 1.5245,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.167,
          "final": 5.0979,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.328,
          "final": 1.6062,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 5.036,
          "final": 3.3651,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.669,
          "final": 0.392,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8099,
          "final": 2.8099,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0699,
          "final": 1.0699,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.1,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 1.9076086956521738,
        "WHIP": 0.9619565217391304,
        "K9": 7.923913043478261,
        "HR9": 0.8804347826086956,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.698170406671479,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.8508,
          "BB": 0.2145,
          "SO": 0.7883,
          "HR": 0.1087
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.0057,
        "role_avg_IP": 5.571,
        "recent_avg_IP": 6.2
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 0.9927,
          "run_prevention": 1.0103,
          "strikeout": 0.9858
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 0.988,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 0.9832,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9961,
          "quality_score": 0.0461
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0136,
          "BB": 1.1197,
          "SO": 0.9381,
          "HR": 1.1573
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.0171,
          "SO": 0.9779,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0027,
        "before": {
          "H": 4.687,
          "BB": 1.181,
          "SO": 4.237,
          "HR": 0.602,
          "ER": 1.79,
          "ERA": 2.977
        },
        "after": {
          "H": 4.687,
          "BB": 1.2012,
          "SO": 4.1434,
          "HR": 0.602,
          "ER": 1.7949,
          "ERA": 2.985
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Mookie Betts",
            "plate_appearances": 4.281,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0378,
            "H_platoon": 0.9909,
            "H_bvp": 0.973,
            "BB_batter": 1.0085,
            "BB_platoon": 0.956,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.5328,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0163,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0461,
            "HR_batter": 1.2763,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9915,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9471,
            "bvp_at_bats": 8.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0006,
              "BB": 0.9641,
              "SO": 0.5664,
              "HR": 1.1985
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Freddie Freeman",
            "plate_appearances": 4.369,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0916,
            "H_platoon": 0.9908,
            "H_bvp": 1.0492,
            "BB_batter": 1.1483,
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            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9961,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9832,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 5.0,
      "H": 6,
      "R": 3,
      "ER": 3,
      "BB": 2,
      "SO": 4,
      "HR": 0,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261007_LAD@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_MIL@SD

away

Robert Gasser

True

3.2

4.0

-1

3/3

1/1

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8689024390243905,
      "WHIP": 1.1890243902439024,
      "IP": 109.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0263,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0022,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
      "walk_factor": 0.964,
      "homer_factor": 0.9891,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.317,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "report_date": "20261007",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 442.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6667,
            "WHIP": 0.8519,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18519,
            "H_per_IP": 0.48148,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92593,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 873.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 87.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9423,
            "WHIP": 1.2115,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32692,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40385,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 109.1,
            "ER": 47.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 95.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 103.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 463.0,
            "Pitches": 1817.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2381,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 4.5238,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 4.9048,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 22.0476,
            "Pitches": 86.5238
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8689,
            "WHIP": 1.189,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42988,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8689,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32012,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94207,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1372
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.749,
        "predicted_H": 3.91,
        "predicted_BB": 1.993,
        "predicted_SO": 5.043,
        "predicted_HR": 0.53,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9518,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1068
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.749,
          "final": 3.151,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.91,
          "final": 3.9488,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.993,
          "final": 1.5648,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.043,
          "final": 5.0245,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.53,
          "final": 0.3014,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9518,
          "final": 2.9518,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1068,
          "final": 1.1068,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.9423076923076925,
        "WHIP": 1.2115384615384617,
        "K9": 8.826923076923078,
        "HR9": 0.6923076923076924,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8208135922902081,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.6312,
          "BB": 0.3491,
          "SO": 0.9286,
          "HR": 0.1021
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.0027,
        "role_avg_IP": 5.2,
        "recent_avg_IP": 5.4
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0133,
          "run_prevention": 0.9717,
          "strikeout": 1.0063
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
          "walk_factor": 0.964,
          "homer_factor": 0.9891,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0022,
          "quality_score": -0.0263
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0428,
          "BB": 1.0569,
          "SO": 0.9836,
          "HR": 1.0295
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.0083,
          "SO": 0.9942,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0023,
        "before": {
          "H": 2.972,
          "BB": 1.644,
          "SO": 4.529,
          "HR": 0.483,
          "ER": 1.359,
          "ERA": 2.491
        },
        "after": {
          "H": 2.972,
          "BB": 1.6576,
          "SO": 4.5027,
          "HR": 0.483,
          "ER": 1.3622,
          "ERA": 2.496
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
            "plate_appearances": 4.476,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0931,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.0031,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0596,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.8556,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9779,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.1329,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0115,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.1065,
              "BB": 1.0629,
              "SO": 0.8367,
              "HR": 1.1459
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jackson Merrill",
            "plate_appearances": 4.425,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0484,
            "H_platoon": 1.0338,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.7542,
            "BB_platoon": 0.9097,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.0928,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0432,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.1824,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9589,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0838,
              "BB": 0.6861,
              "SO": 1.14,
              "HR": 1.1338
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Manny Machado",
            "plate_appearances": 4.184,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9342,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.2856,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0596,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.9439,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9779,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.3344,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0115,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9457,
              "BB": 1.3622,
              "SO": 0.923,
              "HR": 1.3497
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Ty France",
            "plate_appearances": 4.314,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0992,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.8548,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0596,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.971,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9779,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.2181,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0115,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.1127,
              "BB": 0.9057,
              "SO": 0.9495,
              "HR": 1.2321
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Austin Hays",
            "plate_appearances": 3.79,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0282,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.6316,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0596,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.1577,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9779,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.9708,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0115,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0408,
              "BB": 0.6692,
              "SO": 1.1321,
              "HR": 0.982
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Xander Bogaerts",
            "plate_appearances": 3.879,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 0.9598,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.3785,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0596,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.8259,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9779,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.8116,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0115,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9716,
              "BB": 1.4607,
              "SO": 0.8076,
              "HR": 0.8209
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Luis Campusano",
            "plate_appearances": 3.972,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0201,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.2577,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0596,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.9349,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9779,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.0081,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0115,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0326,
              "BB": 1.3327,
              "SO": 0.9142,
              "HR": 1.0197
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jake Cronenworth",
            "plate_appearances": 3.748,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9653,
            "H_platoon": 1.0338,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.9983,
            "BB_platoon": 0.9097,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.0216,
            "SO_platoon": 1.0432,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.747,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9589,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9979,
              "BB": 0.9082,
              "SO": 1.0657,
              "HR": 0.7163
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Samad Taylor",
            "plate_appearances": 3.537,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0665,
            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 1.0924,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0596,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.1371,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9779,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 0.7397,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0115,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0796,
              "BB": 1.1575,
              "SO": 1.112,
              "HR": 0.7482
            }
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "step": "kpi_run_environment",
        "description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
        "applied": true,
        "kpi_staff_exposure": {
          "usage": "starter",
          "batters_faced": 19.349
        },
        "player_attribution": {
          "home_runs": {
            "model_delta": 0.3115,
            "weighted_stage_delta": 0.1184
          },
          "away_runs": {
            "model_delta": -0.1572,
            "weighted_stage_delta": -0.0535
          },
          "home_win": {
            "model_delta": 0.0152,
            "weighted_stage_delta": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "market_blend",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
        "stats_blended": {
          "ER": {
            "model": 1.3622,
            "market_implied": 0.9374,
            "market_multiplier": 0.6881,
            "weight": 0.4625,
            "effective_multiplier": 0.8413,
            "lines": [
              0.5
            ],
            "books": 2,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_earned_runs",
                "point": 0.5,
                "books": 2,
                "market_p_over": 0.6084,
                "model_p_over": 0.7439,
                "implied_multiplier": 0.6881
              }
            ]
          },
          "H": {
            "model": 2.972,
            "market_implied": 2.7953,
            "market_multiplier": 0.9406,
            "weight": 0.4807,
            "effective_multiplier": 0.971,
            "lines": [
              2.5
            ],
            "books": 2,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_hits_allowed",
                "point": 2.5,
                "books": 2,
                "market_p_over": 0.5294,
                "model_p_over": 0.5705,
                "implied_multiplier": 0.9406
              }
            ]
          },
          "OUTS": {
            "model": 14.733,
            "market_implied": 8.8013,
            "market_multiplier": 0.5974,
            "weight": 0.5268,
            "effective_multiplier": 0.7623,
            "lines": [
              8.5
            ],
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      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
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      "HR": 0,
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      "predicted_ER": 2
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
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    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_MIL@SD

home

Walker Buehler

True

3.2

3.0

-2

4/3

3/2

4/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

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      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 19.5
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "report_date": "20261007",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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            "BB": 8.0,
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          "per_game": {
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          },
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            "H_per_IP": 0.9403,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35821,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89552,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22388
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 20.0,
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            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
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            "Pitches": 807.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.9,
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            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 3.9,
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            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 80.7
          },
          "rates": {
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.26351,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79054,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16216
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
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            "R": 81.0,
            "H": 150.0,
            "BB": 57.0,
            "SO": 131.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 651.0,
            "Pitches": 2608.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.4688,
            "R": 2.5312,
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            "SO": 4.0938,
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            "Pitches": 81.5
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.37093,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85249,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14317
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.164,
        "predicted_H": 4.322,
        "predicted_BB": 1.552,
        "predicted_SO": 3.996,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.1997,
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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          "form": 4.1997,
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          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.2665,
          "final": 1.2665,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 19,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 13,
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            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 3.2,
            "delta": -1.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.3143,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.2,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 5,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 4,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 3,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1939,
        "offense_edge": -0.0064,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1449,
        "defense_strength": 0.0671,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1759,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9885,
        "run_prevention": 1.0262,
        "strikeout": 0.9826
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "621111",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "621111",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 583.0,
            "k_percent": 20.1,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.329,
            "xwoba": 0.317,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.722,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.112,
            "whiff_percent": 19.5,
            "swing_percent": 45.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.169,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3936,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8143,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0012
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1628,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0138,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.956,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 1.0302,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "621111",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0138,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0138,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0302,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 3.2,
      "H": 4,
      "R": 3,
      "ER": 3,
      "BB": 3,
      "SO": 4,
      "HR": 0,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 75,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261007_MIL@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_TB@NYY

away

Nick Martinez

True

4.1

3.2

-2

4/5

2/1

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.1,
      "WHIP": 1.0944444444444446,
      "IP": 180.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.806,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0517,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0044,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9154,
      "walk_factor": 0.888,
      "homer_factor": 0.96,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.1,
      "bb_percent": 3.6,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
      "whiff_percent": 17.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 180.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.1,
      "season_WHIP": 1.094,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "report_date": "20261007",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 374.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 74.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7595,
            "WHIP": 1.0633,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91139,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1519,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68354,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 799.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 79.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8118,
            "WHIP": 1.0765,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97059,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10588,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12353
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 180.0,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 171.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 109.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 722.0,
            "Pitches": 2524.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.5161,
            "BB": 0.8387,
            "SO": 3.5161,
            "HR": 0.7097,
            "BF": 23.2903,
            "Pitches": 81.4194
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1,
            "WHIP": 1.0944,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34444,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14444,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60556,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12222
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.327,
        "predicted_H": 5.239,
        "predicted_BB": 0.933,
        "predicted_SO": 3.941,
        "predicted_HR": 0.763,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7818,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1146
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.327,
          "final": 3.0107,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.239,
          "final": 6.3674,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.933,
          "final": 1.3691,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.941,
          "final": 4.7825,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.763,
          "final": 1.2685,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7818,
          "final": 3.7818,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1146,
          "final": 1.1146,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.811764705882353,
        "WHIP": 1.076470588235294,
        "K9": 6.352941176470589,
        "HR9": 1.111764705882353,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9152508094847782,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.9271,
          "BB": 0.1489,
          "SO": 0.6519,
          "HR": 0.1398
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.0027,
        "role_avg_IP": 5.806,
        "recent_avg_IP": 5.267
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0019,
          "run_prevention": 0.9928,
          "strikeout": 0.9976
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9154,
          "walk_factor": 0.888,
          "homer_factor": 0.96,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0044,
          "quality_score": -0.0517
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0082,
          "BB": 1.0515,
          "SO": 1.0296,
          "HR": 1.1706
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
          "BB": 0.15,
          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.0076,
          "SO": 1.0103,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0008,
        "before": {
          "H": 4.46,
          "BB": 0.716,
          "SO": 3.152,
          "HR": 0.675,
          "ER": 1.872,
          "ERA": 3.47
        },
        "after": {
          "H": 4.46,
          "BB": 0.7214,
          "SO": 3.1845,
          "HR": 0.675,
          "ER": 1.8735,
          "ERA": 3.473
        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Trent Grisham",
            "plate_appearances": 4.113,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9267,
            "H_platoon": 0.9908,
            "H_bvp": 1.0713,
            "BB_batter": 1.3095,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0245,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.857,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9883,
            "SO_bvp": 0.9515,
            "HR_batter": 1.1047,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0112,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9515,
            "bvp_at_bats": 6.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9836,
              "BB": 1.3416,
              "SO": 0.8059,
              "HR": 1.0629
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Ben Rice",
            "plate_appearances": 4.202,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0348,
            "H_platoon": 0.9908,
            "H_bvp": 1.0372,
            "BB_batter": 1.4289,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0245,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.0646,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9883,
            "SO_bvp": 0.9623,
            "HR_batter": 1.831,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0112,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9389,
            "bvp_at_bats": 9.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0634,
              "BB": 1.4639,
              "SO": 1.0125,
              "HR": 1.7384
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.",
            "plate_appearances": 4.323,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.1006,
            "H_platoon": 0.9908,
            "H_bvp": 0.9904,
            "BB_batter": 0.6063,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0245,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.825,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9883,
            "SO_bvp": 1.0361,
            "HR_batter": 1.5678,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0112,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9429,
            "bvp_at_bats": 10.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.08,
              "BB": 0.6212,
              "SO": 0.8448,
              "HR": 1.4948
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Cody Bellinger",
            "plate_appearances": 4.342,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0359,
            "H_platoon": 0.9908,
            "H_bvp": 1.0243,
            "BB_batter": 1.1431,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0245,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.7067,
            "SO_platoon": 0.9883,
            "SO_bvp": 0.9795,
            "HR_batter": 1.0266,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0112,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0711,
            "bvp_at_bats": 17.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0513,
              "BB": 1.1711,
              "SO": 0.6841,
              "HR": 1.1119
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "George Lombard Jr.",
            "plate_appearances": 4.209,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0082,
            "H_platoon": 0.9909,
            "H_bvp": 1.0,
            "BB_batter": 0.7944,
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            "SO_batter": 1.1275,
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            "SO_bvp": 1.0,
            "HR_batter": 1.1208,
            "HR_platoon": 0.9915,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0,
            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.999,
              "BB": 0.7594,
              "SO": 1.1459,
              "HR": 1.1113
            }
          },
          {
            "hitter": "Austin Wells",
            "plate_appearances": 3.432,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.905,
            "H_platoon": 0.9908,
            "H_bvp": 1.0341,
            "BB_batter": 1.2705,
            "BB_platoon": 1.0245,
            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 1.1593,
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      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
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      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
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  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261007_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261007

20261007_TB@NYY

home

Max Fried

True

5.1

5.2

4/7

3/0

7/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.730337078651685,
      "WHIP": 0.9775280898876404,
      "IP": 118.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.651,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.8585,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.927,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0097,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 0.8118,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.245,
      "xwoba": 0.246,
      "barrel_percent": 2.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.8,
      "whiff_percent": 25.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 9,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 118.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.73,
      "season_WHIP": 0.978,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608331",
      "report_date": "20261007",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 435.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 87.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5116,
            "WHIP": 0.907,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27907,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69767,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2093,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94186,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06977
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 38.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 200.0,
            "Pitches": 820.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 82.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4231,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26923,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73077,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26923,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01923,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 118.2,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 82.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 110.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 456.0,
            "Pitches": 1794.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7143,
            "R": 1.7143,
            "H": 3.9048,
            "BB": 1.619,
            "SO": 5.2381,
            "HR": 0.2381,
            "BF": 21.7143,
            "Pitches": 85.4286
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7303,
            "WHIP": 0.9775,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30337,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69101,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28652,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92697,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04213
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.834,
        "predicted_H": 4.291,
        "predicted_BB": 1.531,
        "predicted_SO": 5.41,
        "predicted_HR": 0.464,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9282,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0329
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.834,
          "final": 1.0431,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.291,
          "final": 3.303,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.531,
          "final": 1.7333,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.41,
          "final": 5.2332,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.464,
          "final": 0.2639,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9282,
          "final": 2.9282,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0329,
          "final": 1.0329,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 38,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.423076923076923,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 9.173076923076923,
        "HR9": 0.6923076923076923,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7571116692132851,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.6951,
          "BB": 0.2391,
          "SO": 0.9361,
          "HR": 0.0591
        },
        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.0043,
        "role_avg_IP": 5.651,
        "recent_avg_IP": 5.733
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 1.0062,
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          "strikeout": 0.9995
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      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0097,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 0.8118,
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      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0463,
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          "SO": 0.8775,
          "HR": 1.0611
        },
        "weights": {
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          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
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          "SO": 0.9553,
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        "earned_run_factor": 1.0018,
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          "ER": 1.464,
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        "after": {
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          "ERA": 2.548
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        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Yandy D\u00edaz",
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            "stand": "R",
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            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jonathan Aranda",
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          },
          {
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              "SO": 0.7748,
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Victor Mesa Jr.",
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Ryan Vilade",
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Liam Hicks",
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Jonny DeLuca",
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            "HR_platoon": 1.0115,
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            "combined": {
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              "HR": 0.9435
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Richie Palacios",
            "plate_appearances": 3.553,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 0.9754,
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            "HR_batter": 0.8846,
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            "bvp_at_bats": null,
            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0084,
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Taylor Walls",
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            "stand": "R",
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            "H_platoon": 1.0123,
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            "combined": {
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          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "step": "kpi_run_environment",
        "description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
        "applied": true,
        "kpi_staff_exposure": {
          "usage": "starter",
          "batters_faced": 20.262
        },
        "player_attribution": {
          "home_runs": {
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            "weighted_stage_delta": 0.0592
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          "away_runs": {
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          },
          "home_win": {
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        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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        }
      },
      {
        "step": "market_blend",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Starter continuous line blended with his own props: model x (market/model) ** w; integer line stays reconciled to the club score",
        "stats_blended": {
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            "books": 2,
            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_earned_runs",
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                "books": 2,
                "market_p_over": 0.4627,
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                "implied_multiplier": 1.065
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            ]
          },
          "H": {
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            "effective_multiplier": 1.08,
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            "props": [
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          },
          "OUTS": {
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            "effective_multiplier": 1.0142,
            "lines": [
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            "props": [
              {
                "market": "pitcher_outs",
                "point": 14.5,
                "books": 3,
                "market_p_over": 0.6416,
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                "implied_multiplier": 1.0466
              },
              {
                "market": "pitcher_outs",
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                "books": 4,
                "market_p_over": 0.4915,
                "model_p_over": 0.4727,
                "implied_multiplier": 1.0128
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            ]
          },
          "SO": {
            "model": 4.6026,
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            "lines": [
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      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261007_TB@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}