Continuous postgame learning

daily_20261006 · dates 20261006 · generated 2026-10-07T09:14:33.928213+00:00

2-0
Winner picks · 100.0%
4
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
3/4
Starter ER within ±1
4/4
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

DateGamesSettledPendingHitsMissesCalibration tracesReview statusPipeline versions
20261006220202Availableenhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

PriorityChangeStatusObserved gamesEvidence
P1Empirical Confidence BlendImplemented And Applied2
applied games: 2formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate
P1H2H Base FeatureImplemented And Monitored2
available games: 2
P2Score Distribution WideningImplemented Above 1.4X2
variance multipliers: [2.25]
P2Simulation Flip ControlDiagnostic Only Without Independent Support2
simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3Recent Form Quality BlendImplemented Last 102
configured window: 10last 10 games: 2observed windows: [10]
P3Continuous Calibration AuditImplemented2
settled games: 2metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.4642.

BucketGamesAverage confidenceObserved hit rateCalibration errorDirection
0.50-0.55150.5%100.0%-49.5%underconfident
0.55-0.60156.6%100.0%-43.4%underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml21.41832.83661.497950.0%0.00.0
variance_applied21.753.51.550.0%0.33170.0021
enhanced_prediction21.252.50.5100.0%-0.1683-0.9979
kpi_layer21.252.50.5100.0%-0.1683-0.9979
embedded_savant_run_environment21.252.50.5100.0%-0.1683-0.9979
fundamental_edge_target_review21.252.50.5100.0%-0.1683-0.9979
capped_target21.252.50.5100.0%-0.1683-0.9979
simulation_result21.252.50.5100.0%-0.1683-0.9979
published_final21.252.50.5100.0%-0.1683-0.9979
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 2,
  "team_run_mae": 1.75,
  "total_run_mae": 3.5,
  "margin_mae": 1.5,
  "winner_hits": 1,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.3317,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0021
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

insufficient_sample sample=0

No settled miss predictions were available.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "top_stage": null,
  "reason": "No settled miss predictions were available.",
  "ranking": [],
  "interpretation": "No attribution claim can be made without settled games."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=2

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StagePositive Toward Pick Run DeltaNegative Away From Pick Run DeltaNet Toward Pick Run DeltaAbsolute Run MovementGames RecordedGames Supporting PickGames Opposing PickGames UnchangedMeaning
enhanced_prediction2.00.02.02.02101reinforced final pick
variance_applied0.0-0.342-0.3420.3422020moved away from final pick
kpi_layer0.00.00.00.02002recorded but did not change score margin
embedded_savant_run_environment0.00.00.00.02002recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review0.00.00.00.02002recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target0.00.00.00.02002recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result0.00.00.00.02002recorded but did not change score margin
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.342,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.342,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.342,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "moved away from final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=2

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)1101.0
[0.525, 0.550)000
[0.550, 0.600)1101.0
[0.600, 1.010)000
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 1,
    "misses": 0,
    "accuracy": 1.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=2

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
2026100620.53588.01.0
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20261006",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5358,
      "mean_predicted_total": 8.0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=2

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v11model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v32201.0
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20261006_LAD@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickLAD
Published scoreLAD 4 - 3 ATL
Final confidence50.5%
Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.9%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=566
H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6096
Simulation variance2.25
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.807428442993566-4.634357958257989Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Kpi Layer4-3Savant KPI blend applied to the model target
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.010308,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505154,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494846,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505154
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010308,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.5051535925,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 566,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5477,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5289,
    "published_confidence": 0.505154,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.664,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6096
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030645802666319066
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02946651036732466
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02904938315086207
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027931523252938757
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027649724807175473
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09651524120900042,
      "1": 0.13880981486856983,
      "2": 0.16976707238023186,
      "3": 0.17656139578619717,
      "4": 0.1561518224534555,
      "5": 0.1174376550497356,
      "6": 0.07510635646569538,
      "7": 0.04084651673900808,
      "8": 0.018890452886973188,
      "9": 0.007429143078165037,
      "10": 0.002484529082967977
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09247624117108566,
      "1": 0.1333806415151809,
      "2": 0.16452850874626485,
      "3": 0.17357023334494293,
      "4": 0.1566011906739639,
      "5": 0.12083718478680057,
      "6": 0.07974287036340168,
      "7": 0.045005838359221284,
      "8": 0.021723588845602795,
      "9": 0.00896767828065708,
      "10": 0.0031660239128782123
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0609,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.314,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5052,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.587,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5052,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.664,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0609,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    },
    "kpi_runtime_version": "kpi_runtime_v4",
    "advanced_matchup_version": "advanced_individual_matchup_v1"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.807428442993566,
      "home_runs": 4.634357958257989,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend applied to the model target"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261006_MIL@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickSD
Published scoreMIL 4 - 5 SD
Final confidence56.6%
Calibrationraw 72.1% → blended 64.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=357
H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.723
Simulation variance2.25
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.5313164191848228-4.700193372781561Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Kpi Layer4-5Savant KPI blend applied to the model target
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.13286,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56643,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56643,
    "away_win_probability": 0.43357
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.13286,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.56643005,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.721177,
    "sample_size": 357,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.646289,
    "published_confidence": 0.56643,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.179,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.723
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018282124026797165
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0179107370638165
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01776986977420475
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01740888885326085
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017259590176132676
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0389874502520409,
      "1": 0.05824723506129995,
      "2": 0.07985226113532017,
      "3": 0.10045245258024885,
      "4": 0.11595655216022074,
      "5": 0.12282632708420077,
      "6": 0.1193848063786763,
      "7": 0.1064800082848269,
      "8": 0.08714621228882287,
      "9": 0.06544709553767908,
      "10": 0.04510177796389759,
      "11": 0.028520581104462383,
      "12": 0.01654948562479533,
      "13": 0.008811950576144362,
      "14": 0.00430547456486219,
      "15": 0.0019303294025015856
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06629352928927651,
      "1": 0.0973172818966363,
      "2": 0.12656304685032707,
      "3": 0.14582164499259354,
      "4": 0.14884532054975702,
      "5": 0.1346004460418045,
      "6": 0.10783405412559349,
      "7": 0.07653559947514474,
      "8": 0.04812482508240616,
      "9": 0.026808527516015153,
      "10": 0.01323045798596238,
      "11": 0.00578462108436347,
      "12": 0.002240645110119733
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0494,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.334,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.723,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5664,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5527,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5664,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.723,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.124,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0494,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    },
    "kpi_runtime_version": "kpi_runtime_v4",
    "advanced_matchup_version": "advanced_individual_matchup_v1"
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.5313164191848228,
      "home_runs": 4.700193372781561,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "kpi_layer",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Savant KPI blend applied to the model target"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

DateGamePickFinal confidenceRaw confidenceEmpirical hit rateEmpirical weightPred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipelineRoadmap signals
2026100620261006_LAD@ATLLAD50.5%51.0%54.8%50.0%4.0-3.03-1hitEnhanced Prediction (2.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 566,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5477,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5289,
    "published_confidence": 0.505154,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5802,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.664,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6096
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030645802666319066
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02946651036732466
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02904938315086207
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.027931523252938757
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.027649724807175473
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09651524120900042,
      "1": 0.13880981486856983,
      "2": 0.16976707238023186,
      "3": 0.17656139578619717,
      "4": 0.1561518224534555,
      "5": 0.1174376550497356,
      "6": 0.07510635646569538,
      "7": 0.04084651673900808,
      "8": 0.018890452886973188,
      "9": 0.007429143078165037,
      "10": 0.002484529082967977
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09247624117108566,
      "1": 0.1333806415151809,
      "2": 0.16452850874626485,
      "3": 0.17357023334494293,
      "4": 0.1566011906739639,
      "5": 0.12083718478680057,
      "6": 0.07974287036340168,
      "7": 0.045005838359221284,
      "8": 0.021723588845602795,
      "9": 0.00896767828065708,
      "10": 0.0031660239128782123
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 ATL",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0609,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.314,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026100620261006_MIL@SDSD56.6%72.1%57.1%50.0%4.0-5.03-4hitVariance Applied (-0.1689)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.721177,
    "sample_size": 357,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5714,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.646289,
    "published_confidence": 0.56643,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.179,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.723
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018282124026797165
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0179107370638165
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01776986977420475
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01740888885326085
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017259590176132676
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0389874502520409,
      "1": 0.05824723506129995,
      "2": 0.07985226113532017,
      "3": 0.10045245258024885,
      "4": 0.11595655216022074,
      "5": 0.12282632708420077,
      "6": 0.1193848063786763,
      "7": 0.1064800082848269,
      "8": 0.08714621228882287,
      "9": 0.06544709553767908,
      "10": 0.04510177796389759,
      "11": 0.028520581104462383,
      "12": 0.01654948562479533,
      "13": 0.008811950576144362,
      "14": 0.00430547456486219,
      "15": 0.0019303294025015856
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06629352928927651,
      "1": 0.0973172818966363,
      "2": 0.12656304685032707,
      "3": 0.14582164499259354,
      "4": 0.14884532054975702,
      "5": 0.1346004460418045,
      "6": 0.10783405412559349,
      "7": 0.07653559947514474,
      "8": 0.04812482508240616,
      "9": 0.026808527516015153,
      "10": 0.01323045798596238,
      "11": 0.00578462108436347,
      "12": 0.002240645110119733
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0494,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.334,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.723,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}

Starting-pitcher component quality

H
{
  "mae": 2.0,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5
}
R
{
  "mae": 1.0,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.0
}
ER
{
  "mae": 1.25,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.75
}
BB
{
  "mae": 0.5,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5
}
SO
{
  "mae": 2.75,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -2.25
}
HR
{
  "mae": 0.5,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.5
}
IP_outs
{
  "mae_outs": 2.25,
  "mae_innings": 0.75,
  "bias_outs": 0.75
}

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

DateGameSidePred starterActual starterMatchPred IPActual IPΔ outsPred ERActual ERΔ ERH P/ABB P/ASO P/AAll context
2026100620261006_LAD@ATLawayYoshinobu YamamotoYoshinobu YamamotoTrue6.17.021103/41/14/10
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5297297297297296,
      "WHIP": 0.8702702702702703,
      "IP": 185.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.607,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6349,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.946,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.036,
      "walk_factor": 0.934,
      "homer_factor": 0.9344,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.7,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.242,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 27.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "808967",
      "report_date": "20261006",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.16,
            "WHIP": 0.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24,
            "H_per_IP": 0.54,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 65.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 253.0,
            "Pitches": 974.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.9,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 25.3,
            "Pitches": 97.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0663,
            "WHIP": 0.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22959,
            "H_per_IP": 0.59694,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2602,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05612,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 185.0,
            "ER": 52.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 119.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 182.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 708.0,
            "Pitches": 2734.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.8571,
            "R": 1.9643,
            "H": 4.25,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 25.2857,
            "Pitches": 97.6429
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5297,
            "WHIP": 0.8703,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28108,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64324,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22703,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98378,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10811
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.902,
        "predicted_H": 4.278,
        "predicted_BB": 1.691,
        "predicted_SO": 6.972,
        "predicted_HR": 0.866,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5672,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8954
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.2,
          "form": 6.2,
          "final": 6.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.902,
          "final": 2.3566,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.278,
          "final": 4.9909,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.691,
          "final": 1.8189,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.972,
          "final": 6.9836,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.866,
          "final": 0.5075,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5672,
          "final": 2.5672,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8954,
          "final": 0.8954,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.4286,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 5,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 5,
            "better_metrics": 3,
            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          }
        },
        {
          "index": 10,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Published player line stored in the game JSON (model predictions and finalized integer line)",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          }
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "percent_delta": -0.6667,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": -0.085,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
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            "percent_delta": -0.4286,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2008,
        "offense_edge": 0.1012,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0201,
        "defense_strength": 0.2123,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1619,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0136,
        "run_prevention": 0.9719,
        "strikeout": 1.0044
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "808967",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "808967",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 656.0,
            "k_percent": 25.7,
            "bb_percent": 5.9,
            "woba": 0.242,
            "xwoba": 0.266,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.0498,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7865,
            "whiff_percent": 27.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9999,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5314,
            "regression_edge": -0.6857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.825,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0672
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6349,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.946,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.036,
          "walk_factor": 0.934,
          "homer_factor": 0.9344,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.024,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "808967",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.934,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9344,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.036,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 6.1,
      "H": 3,
      "R": 1,
      "ER": 1,
      "BB": 1,
      "SO": 4,
      "HR": 0,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261006_LAD@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026100620261006_LAD@ATLhomeChris SaleChris SaleTrue6.05.0-32316/71/05/7
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 0.974559686888454,
      "IP": 170.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.036,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9393,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.08,
      "walk_factor": 0.912,
      "homer_factor": 0.9277,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.8,
      "woba": 0.259,
      "xwoba": 0.267,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 30.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 2,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "report_date": "20261006",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 82.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0759,
            "WHIP": 0.8354,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34177,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68354,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1519,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.32911,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07595
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 918.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 91.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2753,
            "WHIP": 0.8258,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25281,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72472,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10112,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.31461,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03371
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 170.1,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 47.0,
            "H": 134.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 212.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 678.0,
            "Pitches": 2690.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4483,
            "R": 1.6207,
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            "BB": 1.1034,
            "SO": 7.3103,
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            "BF": 23.3793,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2192,
            "WHIP": 0.9746,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24658,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78669,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18787,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24462,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05871
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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        "predicted_H": 4.389,
        "predicted_BB": 1.023,
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        "predicted_HR": 0.411,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9175,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9342
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "final": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.878,
          "final": 2.3404,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.389,
          "final": 4.2287,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.023,
          "final": 1.0135,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 7.254,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.411,
          "final": 0.6538,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9175,
          "final": 2.9175,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9342,
          "final": 0.9342,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 15,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 6,
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        "HR": 2,
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        "K9": 11.831460674157302,
        "HR9": 0.3033707865168539,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7369807815125833,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_rate_projection",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
          "H": 0.7002,
          "BB": 0.1449,
          "SO": 1.2541,
          "HR": 0.059
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        "source": "recent_role_blend",
        "tto_penalty": 1.0069,
        "role_avg_IP": 6.036,
        "recent_avg_IP": 6.8
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 0.9928,
          "run_prevention": 1.01,
          "strikeout": 0.9859
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      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
          "strikeout_factor": 1.08,
          "walk_factor": 0.912,
          "homer_factor": 0.9277,
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          "quality_score": 0.7139
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      },
      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
        "lineup_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0409,
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          "SO": 0.8945,
          "HR": 1.0715
        },
        "weights": {
          "H": 0.0,
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          "SO": 0.35,
          "HR": 0.0
        },
        "applied_multipliers": {
          "H": 1.0,
          "BB": 1.0115,
          "SO": 0.9617,
          "HR": 1.0
        },
        "earned_run_factor": 1.0017,
        "before": {
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          "HR": 0.347,
          "ER": 1.519,
          "ERA": 2.383
        },
        "after": {
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          "SO": 6.8704,
          "HR": 0.347,
          "ER": 1.5215,
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        },
        "by_hitter": [
          {
            "hitter": "Mookie Betts",
            "plate_appearances": 4.281,
            "stand": "R",
            "H_batter": 1.0343,
            "H_platoon": 1.0124,
            "H_bvp": 1.0604,
            "BB_batter": 1.0159,
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            "BB_bvp": 1.0,
            "SO_batter": 0.5297,
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            "HR_batter": 1.2853,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0127,
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            "combined": {
              "H": 1.1104,
              "BB": 1.0788,
              "SO": 0.5158,
              "HR": 1.347
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Freddie Freeman",
            "plate_appearances": 4.37,
            "stand": "L",
            "H_batter": 1.0925,
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            "HR_platoon": 0.9622,
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            "combined": {
              "H": 1.1582,
              "BB": 1.0329,
              "SO": 0.7921,
              "HR": 0.9823
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
            "plate_appearances": 4.156,
            "stand": "R",
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            "HR_batter": 1.0845,
            "HR_platoon": 1.0127,
            "HR_bvp": 1.0124,
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            "combined": {
              "H": 1.0398,
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              "SO": 1.2393,
              "HR": 1.1119
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Will Smith",
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            "stand": "R",
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            "BB_batter": 1.2143,
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            "HR_platoon": 1.0127,
            "HR_bvp": 0.9563,
            "bvp_at_bats": 7.0,
            "combined": {
              "H": 0.9662,
              "BB": 1.2895,
              "SO": 0.8218,
              "HR": 1.053
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Shohei Ohtani",
            "plate_appearances": 4.21,
            "stand": "L",
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.08,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "IP": 6.0,
      "H": 6,
      "R": 3,
      "ER": 2,
      "BB": 1,
      "SO": 5,
      "HR": 1,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 2
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261006_LAD@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026100620261006_MIL@SDawayDustin MayDustin MayTrue4.03.0-352-38/32/24/3
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
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      "WHIP": 1.3180778032036613,
      "IP": 145.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.699,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.4,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.172,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9937,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0567,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.317,
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      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.3,
      "whiff_percent": 23.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
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      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.29412,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.29412,
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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            "R": 23.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
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            "R": 2.3,
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          },
          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.09611
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.111,
          "final": 2.883,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.9978,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "RBI": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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        "rates_per_inning": {
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      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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        "applied": true,
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        "factors": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
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      {
        "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
        "applied": true,
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        "lineup_multipliers": {
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        "weights": {
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        "applied_multipliers": {
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        "earned_run_factor": 0.9995,
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        "by_hitter": [
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            "hitter": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
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            "hitter": "Jackson Merrill",
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            "hitter": "Xander Bogaerts",
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          },
          {
            "hitter": "Samad Taylor",
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          },
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            "hitter": "Jake Cronenworth",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "step": "kpi_run_environment",
        "description": "KPI blend published; the staff line follows the published score, not a KPI rescale",
        "applied": true,
        "kpi_staff_exposure": {
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          "batters_faced": 17.036
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        "player_attribution": {
          "home_runs": {
            "model_delta": 0.1451,
            "weighted_stage_delta": 0.0638
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          "away_runs": {
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          "home_win": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "play_by_play_realization",
        "applied": true,
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        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.1",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "player_name": "Dustin May",
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      "steps": [
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        {
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
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          "stats": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
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          "stats": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 5,
          "step": "opposing_lineup_context",
          "description": "The nine hitters he faces: batter quality, platoon split against his hand, batter-versus-pitcher history, weighted by plate appearances",
          "stats": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 6,
          "step": "kpi_run_environment",
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        {
          "index": 7,
          "step": "play_by_play_realization",
          "description": "Integer line taken from the realized game: every out, hit, walk and run he is charged with is a play",
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        },
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      "total_change": {
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      },
      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0064
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "669160",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669160",
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          "league_medians": {
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "669160",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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        }
      },
      "club_form": "game.<side>_team.predicted_performance.team_form"
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "H": 8,
      "R": 5,
      "ER": 5,
      "BB": 2,
      "SO": 4,
      "HR": 0,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "source": "play_by_play_realizer_v1",
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261006_MIL@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026100620261006_MIL@SDhomeNick PivettaNick PivettaTrue4.04.1132-14/51/02/4
Last 10 before this game (9 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
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      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 9,
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      "games_count": 9,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8064182445522049,
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        "applied": true,
        "description": "Own per-inning rates from his recent and season work in this role, projected innings, times-through-the-order penalty",
        "rates_per_inning": {
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          "BB": 0.2184,
          "SO": 1.0947,
          "HR": 0.0737
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        "recent_avg_IP": 4.4
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_H": 3.0,
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        },
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      },
      {
        "step": "team_form_adjustment",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Club form: innings, run prevention and strikeout factors",
        "factors": {
          "ip": 0.9885,
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      },
      {
        "step": "savant_pitcher_quality",
        "applied": true,
        "description": "Statcast pitch quality: strikeout, walk, home-run and run-prevention factors",
        "factors": {
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      },
      {
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      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261006_MIL@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}