Continuous postgame learning

daily_20261005 · dates 20261005 · generated 2026-10-06T15:04:40.216970+00:00

0-2
Winner picks · 0.0%
4
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
3/4
Starter ER within ±1
2/4
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

DateGamesSettledPendingHitsMissesCalibration tracesReview statusPipeline versions
20261005220022Availableenhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

PriorityChangeStatusObserved gamesEvidence
P1Empirical Confidence BlendImplemented And Applied2
applied games: 2formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate
P1H2H Base FeatureImplemented And Monitored2
available games: 2
P2Score Distribution WideningImplemented Above 1.4X2
variance multipliers: [2.25]
P2Simulation Flip ControlDiagnostic Only Without Independent Support2
simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3Recent Form Quality BlendImplemented Last 102
configured window: 10last 10 games: 2observed windows: [10]
P3Continuous Calibration AuditImplemented2
settled games: 2metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.5291.

BucketGamesAverage confidenceObserved hit rateCalibration errorDirection
0.50-0.55252.9%0.0%52.9%overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml21.64461.28673.23660.0%0.00.0
variance_applied21.751.53.50.0%0.10540.2634
enhanced_prediction21.51.03.00.0%-0.1446-0.2366
embedded_savant_run_environment21.751.53.50.0%0.10540.2634
fundamental_edge_target_review21.751.53.50.0%0.10540.2634
capped_target21.751.53.50.0%0.10540.2634
simulation_result21.751.53.50.0%0.10540.2634
published_final21.751.53.50.0%0.10540.2634
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 2,
  "team_run_mae": 1.75,
  "total_run_mae": 1.5,
  "margin_mae": 3.5,
  "winner_hits": 0,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.0,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1054,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.2634
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=2

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StagePositive Toward Pick Run DeltaNegative Away From Pick Run DeltaNet Toward Pick Run DeltaAbsolute Run MovementGames RecordedGames Supporting PickGames Opposing PickGames UnchangedMeaning
embedded_savant_run_environment1.00.01.01.02101reinforced final pick
variance_applied0.52670.00.52670.52672200reinforced final pick
enhanced_prediction0.0-1.0-1.01.02011moved away from final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review0.00.00.00.02002recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target0.00.00.00.02002recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result0.00.00.00.02002recorded but did not change score margin
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "top_stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.5267,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.5267,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.5267,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "moved away from final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

insufficient_sample sample=0

No settled hit predictions were available.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "top_stage": null,
  "reason": "No settled hit predictions were available.",
  "ranking": [],
  "interpretation": "No attribution claim can be made without settled games."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=2

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)1010.0
[0.525, 0.550)1010.0
[0.550, 0.600)000
[0.600, 1.010)000
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=2

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
2026100520.52917.50.0
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20261005",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5291,
      "mean_predicted_total": 7.5,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=2

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v11model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v32020.0
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20261005_CHW@CLE

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickCLE
Published scoreCHW 4 - 5 CLE
Final confidence51.8%
Calibrationraw 54.0% → blended 55.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.4% · weight 50.0% · n=821
H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1605
Simulation variance2.25
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.052590122814054-4.657560154846704Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.037,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.5185,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.5185,
    "away_win_probability": 0.4815
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.037,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.5184996125,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.539822,
    "sample_size": 821,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5639,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.551861,
    "published_confidence": 0.5185,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2685,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1605
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01744160494745018
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017375707797229457
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017334799164934776
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017269305543902796
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.015876983281940128
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.048314403764278285,
      "1": 0.07175173601017976,
      "2": 0.09661848868951951,
      "3": 0.11796688312224266,
      "4": 0.13059664125373613,
      "5": 0.13109192735013284,
      "6": 0.11931414339498507,
      "7": 0.09846456002099437,
      "8": 0.07367836837057504,
      "9": 0.04998872879225278,
      "10": 0.030752202373672564,
      "11": 0.017153486031480765,
      "12": 0.008675621581975525,
      "13": 0.003978513588860975,
      "14": 0.0016542956551136854
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05009797024117762,
      "1": 0.07431848632840023,
      "2": 0.0997441633368908,
      "3": 0.12111335612248927,
      "4": 0.13304865753377382,
      "5": 0.13223391794855024,
      "6": 0.11890199614517424,
      "7": 0.09672736041242856,
      "8": 0.07119072868340738,
      "9": 0.0474036137658919,
      "10": 0.028557052144400165,
      "11": 0.015564286235275058,
      "12": 0.007674656641990396,
      "13": 0.003423754460150115
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.049,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.03,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5185,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5507,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5185,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.04,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.049,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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  ]
}

20261005_NYY@TB

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickNYY
Published scoreNYY 4 - 2 TB
Final confidence54.0%
Calibrationraw 48.5% → blended 53.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 57.9% · weight 50.0% · n=485
H2H base featurehome net -14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1757
Simulation variance2.25
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.865776746263275-2.9974728665881125Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-3Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-2Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.079238,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.539619,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.460381,
    "away_win_probability": 0.539619
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.079238,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 TB",
    "confidence": 0.5396185,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.484824,
    "sample_size": 485,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5794,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.532112,
    "published_confidence": 0.539619,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2853,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.028,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1757
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028425001857791943
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026624637022712536
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02655888481906244
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.026233106036805034
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026168542020327538
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08835713498291922,
      "1": 0.1278072747072023,
      "2": 0.1590222455882233,
      "3": 0.17019568619203276,
      "4": 0.15668505451913656,
      "5": 0.12407804914258759,
      "6": 0.08451828939924737,
      "7": 0.04952161498021102,
      "8": 0.024959004456441655,
      "9": 0.010820518614672165,
      "10": 0.004035127417326009
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08480018763735535,
      "1": 0.1229653602338988,
      "2": 0.15413496442680732,
      "3": 0.16701364466852497,
      "4": 0.15643543980704544,
      "5": 0.12666328533417143,
      "6": 0.08865408588729988,
      "7": 0.05363881451733485,
      "8": 0.02805381911797119,
      "9": 0.012683444737746479,
      "10": 0.004956953631844255
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 TB",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 TB",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.02,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.182,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1757,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5396,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5589,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5396,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1757,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.028,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.02,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 1.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 6,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T21:36:34.474835+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.45339,
      "confidence": 0.54661,
      "predicted_score": {
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.453316,
      "confidence": 0.546684,
      "predicted_score": {
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.532112,
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        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5467,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.97674,
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        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 485,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5794,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5765,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1757,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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            "home_runs": 3
          },
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          "side_flipped": false,
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.453316,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.546684
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 32,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -14.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
        "home_average_margin": -2.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0808,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0808,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -8.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "games": 162,
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          "losses": 64,
          "win_pct": 0.6049382716049383,
          "runs_scored": 736,
          "runs_allowed": 650,
          "run_differential": 86,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5308641975308642,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "NYY",
          "games": 161,
          "wins": 93,
          "losses": 68,
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          "runs_scored": 739,
          "runs_allowed": 601,
          "run_differential": 138,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.3263,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0273,
        "quality_edge": -0.1757,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
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      },
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  },
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      "away_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

DateGamePickFinal confidenceRaw confidenceEmpirical hit rateEmpirical weightPred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipelineRoadmap signals
2026100520261005_CHW@CLECLE51.8%54.0%56.4%50.0%4.0-5.04-3missVariance Applied (0.395)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
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    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.539822,
    "sample_size": 821,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5639,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.551861,
    "published_confidence": 0.5185,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2685,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1605
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01744160494745018
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017375707797229457
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017334799164934776
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017269305543902796
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.015876983281940128
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.048314403764278285,
      "1": 0.07175173601017976,
      "2": 0.09661848868951951,
      "3": 0.11796688312224266,
      "4": 0.13059664125373613,
      "5": 0.13109192735013284,
      "6": 0.11931414339498507,
      "7": 0.09846456002099437,
      "8": 0.07367836837057504,
      "9": 0.04998872879225278,
      "10": 0.030752202373672564,
      "11": 0.017153486031480765,
      "12": 0.008675621581975525,
      "13": 0.003978513588860975,
      "14": 0.0016542956551136854
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05009797024117762,
      "1": 0.07431848632840023,
      "2": 0.0997441633368908,
      "3": 0.12111335612248927,
      "4": 0.13304865753377382,
      "5": 0.13223391794855024,
      "6": 0.11890199614517424,
      "7": 0.09672736041242856,
      "8": 0.07119072868340738,
      "9": 0.0474036137658919,
      "10": 0.028557052144400165,
      "11": 0.015564286235275058,
      "12": 0.007674656641990396,
      "13": 0.003423754460150115
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.049,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.03,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1605,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026100520261005_NYY@TBNYY54.0%48.5%57.9%50.0%4.0-2.02-5missEnhanced Prediction (-1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.484824,
    "sample_size": 485,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5794,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.532112,
    "published_confidence": 0.539619,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2853,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.028,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1757
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028425001857791943
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026624637022712536
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02655888481906244
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.026233106036805034
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026168542020327538
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08835713498291922,
      "1": 0.1278072747072023,
      "2": 0.1590222455882233,
      "3": 0.17019568619203276,
      "4": 0.15668505451913656,
      "5": 0.12407804914258759,
      "6": 0.08451828939924737,
      "7": 0.04952161498021102,
      "8": 0.024959004456441655,
      "9": 0.010820518614672165,
      "10": 0.004035127417326009
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08480018763735535,
      "1": 0.1229653602338988,
      "2": 0.15413496442680732,
      "3": 0.16701364466852497,
      "4": 0.15643543980704544,
      "5": 0.12666328533417143,
      "6": 0.08865408588729988,
      "7": 0.05363881451733485,
      "8": 0.02805381911797119,
      "9": 0.012683444737746479,
      "10": 0.004956953631844255
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 TB",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "NYY 4 - 2 TB",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.02,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.182,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1757,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}

Starting-pitcher component quality

H
{
  "mae": 3.25,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.75
}
R
{
  "mae": 2.0,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0
}
ER
{
  "mae": 1.25,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.75
}
BB
{
  "mae": 1.75,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.25
}
SO
{
  "mae": 3.75,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.25
}
HR
{
  "mae": 0.25,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.25
}
IP_outs
{
  "mae_outs": 5.5,
  "mae_innings": 1.8333,
  "bias_outs": 5.5
}

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

DateGameSidePred starterActual starterMatchPred IPActual IPΔ outsPred ERActual ERΔ ERH P/ABB P/ASO P/AAll context
2026100520261005_CHW@CLEawayAnthony KayAnthony KayTrue4.20.1-131105/11/14/0
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.3875,
      "WHIP": 1.375,
      "IP": 160.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 35,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.871,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3447,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0293,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9674,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 1.0474,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.339,
      "xwoba": 0.342,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 44,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 35.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.875,
        "prior_weight": 0.125
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "report_date": "20261005",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 35,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 67.0,
            "Pitches": 238.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 13.4,
            "Pitches": 47.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.4667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 38.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 178.0,
            "Pitches": 669.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 17.8,
            "Pitches": 66.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5862,
            "WHIP": 1.4741,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11207,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36207,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80172,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12931
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 35,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 160.0,
            "ER": 78.0,
            "R": 85.0,
            "H": 162.0,
            "BB": 58.0,
            "SO": 129.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 719.0,
            "Pitches": 2821.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2286,
            "R": 2.4286,
            "H": 4.6286,
            "BB": 1.6571,
            "SO": 3.6857,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.5429,
            "Pitches": 80.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3875,
            "WHIP": 1.375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4875,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13125
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.792,
        "predicted_H": 3.938,
        "predicted_BB": 1.544,
        "predicted_SO": 3.015,
        "predicted_HR": 0.408,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2372,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4401
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4028,
      "form_weight": 0.5972,
      "form_reliability": 0.875,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 35.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.875,
        "prior_weight": 0.125
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.792,
          "final": 1.473,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.938,
          "final": 4.3658,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.544,
          "final": 1.3249,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.015,
          "final": 3.4118,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.408,
          "final": 0.2437,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2372,
          "final": 4.2372,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4401,
          "final": 1.4401,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 38.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 31,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 5.586206896551724,
        "WHIP": 1.4741379310344829,
        "K9": 7.2155172413793105,
        "HR9": 1.163793103448276,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1254953965211363,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 35.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.875,
          "prior_weight": 0.125
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "player_name": "Anthony Kay",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0667,
        "defense_index": 1.0104,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1281
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5247,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 667.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1852,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1173,
        "offense_index": 0.932,
        "defense_index": 1.0907,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1343
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0062,
        "offense_edge": 0.0667,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.068,
        "defense_strength": 0.0104,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0907,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0028,
        "run_prevention": 0.9884,
        "strikeout": 1.0053
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641743",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641743",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 659.0,
            "k_percent": 18.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.339,
            "xwoba": 0.342,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4956,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2252,
            "whiff_percent": 23.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4736,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2757,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0101
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641743",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 66,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 66,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.04480777448889,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.850070240423,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 66,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.04480777448889,
                "release_spin_rate": 2295.850070240423,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0448,
              "release_spin_rate": 2295.8501,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0101,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0723,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3447,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0293,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9674,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 1.0474,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "641743",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0474,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9674,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -13 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261005_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026100520261005_CHW@CLEhomeGavin WilliamsGavin WilliamsTrue5.25.0-232-16/40/36/11
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7594936708860756,
      "WHIP": 1.1121157323688968,
      "IP": 184.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.76,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2212,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9812,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1069,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 1.1158,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 11.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.6,
      "whiff_percent": 32.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "report_date": "20261005",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 472.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 8.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5412,
            "WHIP": 1.0588,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28235,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63529,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.55294,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03529
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 80.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 214.0,
            "Pitches": 912.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8824,
            "WHIP": 1.2157,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43137,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76471,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45098,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.56863,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13725
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 184.1,
            "ER": 77.0,
            "R": 81.0,
            "H": 144.0,
            "BB": 61.0,
            "SO": 248.0,
            "HR": 28.0,
            "BF": 746.0,
            "Pitches": 2991.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4062,
            "R": 2.5312,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.9062,
            "SO": 7.75,
            "HR": 0.875,
            "BF": 23.3125,
            "Pitches": 93.4688
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7595,
            "WHIP": 1.1121,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78119,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33092,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34539,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.088,
        "predicted_H": 4.081,
        "predicted_BB": 2.24,
        "predicted_SO": 7.86,
        "predicted_HR": 0.555,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4386,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1568
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.088,
          "final": 2.4593,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.081,
          "final": 4.8622,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.24,
          "final": 1.3281,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 7.86,
          "final": 5.8816,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.555,
          "final": 0.7362,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4386,
          "final": 3.4386,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1568,
          "final": 1.1568,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 80,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.8823529411764706,
        "WHIP": 1.2156862745098038,
        "K9": 14.117647058823529,
        "HR9": 1.2352941176470589,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9273505351283032,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "player_name": "Gavin Williams",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5247,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 667.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1852,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1173,
        "offense_index": 0.932,
        "defense_index": 1.0907,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1343
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0667,
        "defense_index": 1.0104,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1281
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0062,
        "offense_edge": -0.068,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0667,
        "defense_strength": 0.0907,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0104,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0003,
        "run_prevention": 1.0013,
        "strikeout": 0.9949
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "668909",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "668909",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 700.0,
            "k_percent": 33.2,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.294,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2974,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.9953,
            "whiff_percent": 32.8,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1041,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1436,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.9333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.2429,
            "whiff_edge": 1.0857,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0624
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "668909",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.97845935651245,
              "release_spin_rate": 2292.19753528252,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.97845935651245,
                "release_spin_rate": 2292.19753528252,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9785,
              "release_spin_rate": 2292.1975,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0624,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4457,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2212,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9812,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1069,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 1.1158,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "668909",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9812,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9812,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.1158,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.1069,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261005_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026100520261005_NYY@TBawayCam SchlittlerCam SchlittlerTrue6.04.1-51213/64/17/2
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.89,
      "WHIP": 0.905,
      "IP": 200.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 34,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.882,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7136,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9393,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 0.9612,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.243,
      "xwoba": 0.262,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 29.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 95,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 200.0,
      "season_ERA": 1.89,
      "season_WHIP": 0.905,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 34.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8718,
        "prior_weight": 0.1282
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "report_date": "20261005",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 34,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 475.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.9529,
            "WHIP": 0.7059,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.10588,
            "H_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28235,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.37647,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03529
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 965.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 0.7,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 2.9,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 96.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.0442,
            "WHIP": 0.7956,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.11602,
            "H_per_IP": 0.48066,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31492,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.29282,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04972
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 34,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 200.0,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 131.0,
            "BB": 50.0,
            "SO": 249.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 783.0,
            "Pitches": 3158.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2353,
            "R": 1.5294,
            "H": 3.8529,
            "BB": 1.4706,
            "SO": 7.3235,
            "HR": 0.4706,
            "BF": 23.0294,
            "Pitches": 92.8824
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.89,
            "WHIP": 0.905,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21,
            "H_per_IP": 0.655,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.245,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.053,
        "predicted_H": 3.247,
        "predicted_BB": 1.756,
        "predicted_SO": 7.462,
        "predicted_HR": 0.363,
        "predicted_ERA": 1.6141,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8524
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4042,
      "form_weight": 0.5958,
      "form_reliability": 0.8718,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 34.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8718,
        "prior_weight": 0.1282
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.053,
          "final": 1.4357,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.247,
          "final": 3.1472,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.756,
          "final": 2.6629,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 7.462,
          "final": 6.0628,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.363,
          "final": 0.2163,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6141,
          "final": 1.6141,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8524,
          "final": 0.8524,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 29,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 78,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 1.0441988950276242,
        "WHIP": 0.7955801104972375,
        "K9": 11.6353591160221,
        "HR9": 0.4475138121546961,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6866325542112777,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 34.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8718,
          "prior_weight": 0.1282
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "percent_delta": -0.5,
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              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "percent_delta": -0.5,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 3.0,
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5776,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
        "offense_index": 1.0225,
        "defense_index": 1.2025,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.171
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.6049,
        "runs_scored": 736.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5309,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5432,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0123,
        "offense_index": 1.0121,
        "defense_index": 1.1188,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1542
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0168,
        "offense_edge": 0.0225,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0121,
        "defense_strength": 0.2025,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1188,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0063,
        "run_prevention": 0.9808,
        "strikeout": 0.9995
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693645",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693645",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 691.0,
            "k_percent": 31.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.243,
            "xwoba": 0.262,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6999,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7524,
            "whiff_percent": 29.4,
            "swing_percent": 52.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8911,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9479,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.4286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693645",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
                "release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 95.8457,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.856,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7136,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9393,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 0.9612,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693645",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9393,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9393,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9612,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0771,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 113,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261005_NYY@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026100520261005_NYY@TBhomeFreddy PeraltaFreddy PeraltaTrue5.14.2-241-37/32/14/3
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.420118343195266,
      "WHIP": 1.3254437869822486,
      "IP": 169.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.281,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1426,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9879,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0011,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
      "homer_factor": 0.9625,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.4,
      "bb_percent": 8.6,
      "woba": 0.323,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 5.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
      "whiff_percent": 26.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "report_date": "20261005",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 442.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.9643,
            "WHIP": 0.8929,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.10714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03571
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 866.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.3,
            "HR": 0.6,
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            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.253,
            "WHIP": 1.012,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36145,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74096,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27108,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77711,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10843
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 169.0,
            "ER": 83.0,
            "R": 91.0,
            "H": 161.0,
            "BB": 63.0,
            "SO": 156.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 730.0,
            "Pitches": 2959.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5938,
            "R": 2.8438,
            "H": 5.0312,
            "BB": 1.9688,
            "SO": 4.875,
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            "BF": 22.8125,
            "Pitches": 92.4688
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3254,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49112,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95266,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37278,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13609
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.699,
        "predicted_H": 4.142,
        "predicted_BB": 1.797,
        "predicted_SO": 4.679,
        "predicted_HR": 0.502,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7486,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0675
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.699,
          "final": 2.6357,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.142,
          "final": 5.3054,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 1.8796,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 4.4026,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.502,
          "final": 0.7047,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7486,
          "final": 2.7486,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0675,
          "final": 1.0675,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.253012048192771,
        "WHIP": 1.0120481927710843,
        "K9": 6.993975903614458,
        "HR9": 0.9759036144578312,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8514587326241692,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.6049,
        "runs_scored": 736.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5309,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5432,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0123,
        "offense_index": 1.0121,
        "defense_index": 1.1188,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1542
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5776,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
        "offense_index": 1.0225,
        "defense_index": 1.2025,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.171
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0168,
        "offense_edge": 0.0121,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0225,
        "defense_strength": 0.1188,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2025,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.002,
        "run_prevention": 0.9926,
        "strikeout": 0.9977
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "642547",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "642547",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 683.0,
            "k_percent": 21.4,
            "bb_percent": 8.6,
            "woba": 0.323,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4239,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4809,
            "whiff_percent": 26.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.138,
            "command_and_miss": 0.03,
            "regression_edge": 0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1286,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0309
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "642547",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.31293809090894,
              "release_spin_rate": 2298.363391166723,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.31293809090894,
                "release_spin_rate": 2298.363391166723,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3129,
              "release_spin_rate": 2298.3634,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0309,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2205,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1426,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9879,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0011,
          "walk_factor": 0.988,
          "homer_factor": 0.9625,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "642547",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9879,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9879,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9625,
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          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0011,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261005_NYY@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}