Continuous postgame learning

daily_20261004 · dates 20261004 · generated 2026-10-05T09:00:13.570709+00:00

1-1

Winner picks · 50.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

3/4

Starter ER within ±1

2/4

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20261004	2	2	0	1	1	2	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	2	applied games: 2formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	2	available games: 2
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	2	variance multipliers: [2.25]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	2	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	2	configured window: 10last 10 games: 2observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	2	settled games: 2metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.4806.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	1	51.5%	0.0%	51.5%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	1	55.4%	100.0%	-44.6%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	2	1.4371	2.8741	1.1925	50.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	2	1.5	3.0	1.0	50.0%	0.0629	-0.1925
enhanced_prediction	2	1.0	2.0	1.0	50.0%	-0.4371	-0.1925
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	1.0	2.0	1.0	50.0%	-0.4371	-0.1925
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	1.0	2.0	1.0	50.0%	-0.4371	-0.1925
capped_target	2	1.0	2.0	1.0	50.0%	-0.4371	-0.1925
simulation_result	2	1.0	2.0	1.0	50.0%	-0.4371	-0.1925
published_final	2	1.0	2.0	1.0	50.0%	-0.4371	-0.1925

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 2,
  "team_run_mae": 1.5,
  "total_run_mae": 3.0,
  "margin_mae": 1.0,
  "winner_hits": 1,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0629,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.1925
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

no_recorded_stage_reinforced_pick sample=1

No recorded score stage moved the margin toward the final losing pick. A zero means the stage was present but left the score margin unchanged; it is not evidence that the stage contributed to the outcome.

Stage	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
variance_applied	-0.1817	-0.1817	0.1817	1	1	0	moved away from final pick
enhanced_prediction	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "no_recorded_stage_reinforced_pick",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "top_stage": null,
  "reason": "No recorded score stage moved the margin toward the final losing pick. A zero means the stage was present but left the score margin unchanged; it is not evidence that the stage contributed to the outcome.",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.1817,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.1817,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.1817,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "moved away from final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Deterministic score-trace attribution only. The table preserves every recorded stage and separates reinforcing, opposing, and unchanged movement so cancellation cannot hide an effect. This is not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

no_recorded_stage_reinforced_pick sample=1

No recorded score stage moved the margin toward the final winning pick. A zero means the stage was present but left the score margin unchanged; it is not evidence that the stage contributed to the outcome.

Stage	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
variance_applied	-0.2034	-0.2034	0.2034	1	1	0	moved away from final pick
enhanced_prediction	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "no_recorded_stage_reinforced_pick",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "top_stage": null,
  "reason": "No recorded score stage moved the margin toward the final winning pick. A zero means the stage was present but left the score margin unchanged; it is not evidence that the stage contributed to the outcome.",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.2034,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.2034,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.2034,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "moved away from final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Deterministic score-trace attribution only. The table preserves every recorded stage and separates reinforcing, opposing, and unchanged movement so cancellation cannot hide an effect. This is not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=2

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	1	0	1	0.0
[0.525, 0.550)	0	0	0
[0.550, 0.600)	1	1	0	1.0
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=2

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20261004	2	0.5344	8.0	0.5

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20261004",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5344,
      "mean_predicted_total": 8.0,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=2

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	2	1	1	0.5

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20261004_ATL@LAD

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreATL 3 - 4 LAD

Final confidence51.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 54.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.7% · weight 50.0% · n=482

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6096

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.87520551611148-5.056871594442494	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.029892,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.514946,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.514946,
    "away_win_probability": 0.485054
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.029892,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.51494642975,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 482,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5768,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.54345,
    "published_confidence": 0.514946,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5802,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.664,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6096
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028222820230211776
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0265181780356338
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.026307011487808
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026069515180494638
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02598831593214533
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0841529373742921,
      "1": 0.12208141372398842,
      "2": 0.15323247657232358,
      "3": 0.1664075752743024,
      "4": 0.15635665293570739,
      "5": 0.12711026918853163,
      "6": 0.08940584509052579,
      "7": 0.054409180861758805,
      "8": 0.028648340072565028,
      "9": 0.013051118710441978,
      "10": 0.005144190195562751
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08767011620706518,
      "1": 0.1268741591486834,
      "2": 0.15808782409360952,
      "3": 0.16960057367394443,
      "4": 0.15666062760377497,
      "5": 0.12459369260852138,
      "6": 0.08531706417814217,
      "7": 0.050301321878038256,
      "8": 0.025534452110624006,
      "9": 0.011160337784586449,
      "10": 0.0041998307130102904
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.073,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.314,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5149,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.547,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.664,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.073,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 5
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.5247,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.037,
        "quality_edge": 0.6096,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.5802,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.5802,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.664,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.6096
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.256,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.256,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.6096,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.5802,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 1.961,
          "home_runs": 4.079,
          "home_win_probability": 0.6801
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.029195080240943357
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.027352340445187084
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.02712444305509435
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          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.026868231458953694
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.026780658363108154
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08291704144926909,
          "1": 0.12238816666417565,
          "2": 0.15524994570748876,
          "3": 0.16924657194298304,
          "4": 0.15856403944638509,
          "5": 0.12766913541459776,
          "6": 0.08834124790952153,
          "7": 0.05253364542606627,
          "8": 0.026847752983972725,
          "9": 0.011791654466206683,
          "10": 0.004450798589333142
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08647388157042765,
          "1": 0.1273129757245344,
          "2": 0.1602658343014015,
          "3": 0.1725002752243561,
          "4": 0.15875199804936227,
          "5": 0.1249191935279063,
          "6": 0.08404651452563165,
          "7": 0.04834936866356368,
          "8": 0.0237816767385115,
          "9": 0.010001720168668463,
          "10": 0.003596561505636591
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.87520551611148,
      "home_runs": 5.056871594442494,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261004_SD@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreSD 4 - 5 MIL

Final confidence55.4%

Calibrationraw 57.8% → blended 57.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.9% · weight 50.0% · n=437

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.723

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.806406525760892-5.00975768773032	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.107578,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.553789,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.553789,
    "away_win_probability": 0.446211
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.107578,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.5537894025,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.578158,
    "sample_size": 437,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5789,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.578529,
    "published_confidence": 0.553789,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.179,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.723
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01951804457688806
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0194654955380338
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01896005841534769
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      {
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        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.018909011660001772
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017843640828593545
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0495064378502637,
      "1": 0.07346909897918259,
      "2": 0.09871752985077217,
      "3": 0.12009650712701961,
      "4": 0.1322857318567977,
      "5": 0.1319295748639277,
      "6": 0.11912909770342466,
      "7": 0.09739576490685303,
      "8": 0.07209561052174608,
      "9": 0.04831968627849282,
      "10": 0.029321482112307024,
      "11": 0.016109952597631975,
      "12": 0.008013996291812242,
      "13": 0.003609529059768694
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.14332655645638626,
      "4": 0.14754459383432814,
      "5": 0.13488711577685256,
      "6": 0.10951362847898655,
      "7": 0.07896168391257363,
      "8": 0.05056094320504607,
      "9": 0.028751762044095786,
      "10": 0.014519922444994893,
      "11": 0.006512004030580646,
      "12": 0.002593675009061732
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0331,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.334,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5538,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5505,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5538,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.723,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.124,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0331,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 4,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T19:36:23.480183+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-04T20:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.574449,
      "confidence": 0.574449,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.575537,
      "confidence": 0.575537,
      "predicted_score": {
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      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.723,
        "reasons": [
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        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          },
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 18,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
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          {
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          },
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        ],
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "run_differential": 214,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.3209876543209877,
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        },
        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.0679,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0741,
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
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      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
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  },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20261004	20261004_ATL@LAD	LAD	51.5%	51.0%	57.7%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-2	miss	Variance Applied (-0.1817)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 482, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5768, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.54345, "published_confidence": 0.514946, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -2.6, "home_run_delta": -0.075, "away_run_delta": 0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5802, "recent_quality_edge": 0.664, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6096 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028222820230211776 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0265181780356338 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.026307011487808 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026069515180494638 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02598831593214533 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0841529373742921, "1": 0.12208141372398842, "2": 0.15323247657232358, "3": 0.1664075752743024, "4": 0.15635665293570739, "5": 0.12711026918853163, "6": 0.08940584509052579, "7": 0.054409180861758805, "8": 0.028648340072565028, "9": 0.013051118710441978, "10": 0.005144190195562751 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08767011620706518, "1": 0.1268741591486834, "2": 0.15808782409360952, "3": 0.16960057367394443, "4": 0.15666062760377497, "5": 0.12459369260852138, "6": 0.08531706417814217, "7": 0.050301321878038256, "8": 0.025534452110624006, "9": 0.011160337784586449, "10": 0.0041998307130102904 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.073, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.314, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261004	20261004_SD@MIL	MIL	55.4%	57.8%	57.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-4	hit	Variance Applied (-0.2034)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.578158, "sample_size": 437, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5789, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.578529, "published_confidence": 0.553789, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.179, "recent_quality_edge": -0.124, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.723 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01951804457688806 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0194654955380338 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01896005841534769 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018909011660001772 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017843640828593545 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0495064378502637, "1": 0.07346909897918259, "2": 0.09871752985077217, "3": 0.12009650712701961, "4": 0.1322857318567977, "5": 0.1319295748639277, "6": 0.11912909770342466, "7": 0.09739576490685303, "8": 0.07209561052174608, "9": 0.04831968627849282, "10": 0.029321482112307024, "11": 0.016109952597631975, "12": 0.008013996291812242, "13": 0.003609529059768694 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06445252855479482, "1": 0.0947294456992689, "2": 0.12364614055302993, "3": 0.14332655645638626, "4": 0.14754459383432814, "5": 0.13488711577685256, "6": 0.10951362847898655, "7": 0.07896168391257363, "8": 0.05056094320504607, "9": 0.028751762044095786, "10": 0.014519922444994893, "11": 0.006512004030580646, "12": 0.002593675009061732 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0331, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.334, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.723, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Date

Game

Pick

Final confidence

Raw confidence

Empirical hit rate

Empirical weight

Pred A-H

Actual A-H

Result

Largest recorded movement

Pipeline

Roadmap signals

20261004

20261004_ATL@LAD

LAD

51.5%

51.0%

57.7%

50.0%

3.0-4.0

3-2

miss

Variance Applied (-0.1817)

enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Signals

{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 482,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5768,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.54345,
    "published_confidence": 0.514946,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5802,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.664,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6096
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.028222820230211776
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0265181780356338
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.026307011487808
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026069515180494638
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02598831593214533
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0841529373742921,
      "1": 0.12208141372398842,
      "2": 0.15323247657232358,
      "3": 0.1664075752743024,
      "4": 0.15635665293570739,
      "5": 0.12711026918853163,
      "6": 0.08940584509052579,
      "7": 0.054409180861758805,
      "8": 0.028648340072565028,
      "9": 0.013051118710441978,
      "10": 0.005144190195562751
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08767011620706518,
      "1": 0.1268741591486834,
      "2": 0.15808782409360952,
      "3": 0.16960057367394443,
      "4": 0.15666062760377497,
      "5": 0.12459369260852138,
      "6": 0.08531706417814217,
      "7": 0.050301321878038256,
      "8": 0.025534452110624006,
      "9": 0.011160337784586449,
      "10": 0.0041998307130102904
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.073,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.314,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}

20261004

20261004_SD@MIL

MIL

55.4%

57.8%

57.9%

50.0%

4.0-5.0

3-4

hit

Variance Applied (-0.2034)

enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Signals

{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.578158,
    "sample_size": 437,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5789,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.578529,
    "published_confidence": 0.553789,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.179,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.723
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01951804457688806
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0194654955380338
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01896005841534769
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.018909011660001772
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017843640828593545
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0495064378502637,
      "1": 0.07346909897918259,
      "2": 0.09871752985077217,
      "3": 0.12009650712701961,
      "4": 0.1322857318567977,
      "5": 0.1319295748639277,
      "6": 0.11912909770342466,
      "7": 0.09739576490685303,
      "8": 0.07209561052174608,
      "9": 0.04831968627849282,
      "10": 0.029321482112307024,
      "11": 0.016109952597631975,
      "12": 0.008013996291812242,
      "13": 0.003609529059768694
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06445252855479482,
      "1": 0.0947294456992689,
      "2": 0.12364614055302993,
      "3": 0.14332655645638626,
      "4": 0.14754459383432814,
      "5": 0.13488711577685256,
      "6": 0.10951362847898655,
      "7": 0.07896168391257363,
      "8": 0.05056094320504607,
      "9": 0.028751762044095786,
      "10": 0.014519922444994893,
      "11": 0.006512004030580646,
      "12": 0.002593675009061732
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0331,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.334,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.723,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 1.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5 }
R	{ "mae": 0.75, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.75 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.0 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.25, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -1.25 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.25, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.75 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.75, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.75 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 4.5, "mae_innings": 1.5, "bias_outs": 4.5 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20261004

20261004_ATL@LAD

away

Ray Kerr

True

5.0

2.2

-7

-1

2/2

0/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.2461538461538462,
      "WHIP": 0.6,
      "IP": 21.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.167,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.167,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1441,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9878,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9815,
      "walk_factor": 0.9442,
      "homer_factor": 0.9609,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.7,
      "bb_percent": 3.0,
      "woba": 0.209,
      "xwoba": 0.281,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 31.4,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 35,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.468,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4719,
        "prior_weight": 0.5281
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678061",
      "report_date": "20261004",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 10,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 11.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 40.0,
            "Pitches": 139.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 8.0,
            "Pitches": 27.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.7714,
            "WHIP": 0.6857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.08571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.51429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08571
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 78.0,
            "Pitches": 259.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.3,
            "R": 0.3,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.3,
            "SO": 1.3,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.8,
            "Pitches": 25.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.2462,
            "WHIP": 0.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.13846,
            "H_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13846,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 78.0,
            "Pitches": 259.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.3,
            "R": 0.3,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.3,
            "SO": 1.3,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.8,
            "Pitches": 25.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.2462,
            "WHIP": 0.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.13846,
            "H_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13846,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.069,
        "predicted_H": 2.496,
        "predicted_BB": 0.912,
        "predicted_SO": 2.576,
        "predicted_HR": 0.398,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8969,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0261
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5731,
      "form_weight": 0.4269,
      "form_reliability": 0.4719,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.468,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4719,
        "prior_weight": 0.5281
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.069,
          "final": 1.0295,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.496,
          "final": 2.2117,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.912,
          "final": 0.3893,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.576,
          "final": 3.3921,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.398,
          "final": 0.743,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8969,
          "final": 2.8969,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0261,
          "final": 1.0261,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 21.2,
        "ER": 3,
        "H": 10,
        "BB": 3,
        "SO": 13,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 1.2461538461538462,
        "WHIP": 0.6,
        "K9": 5.3999999999999995,
        "HR9": 0.8307692307692307,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.721442130050401,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.468,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4719,
          "prior_weight": 0.5281
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "678061",
      "player_name": "Ray Kerr",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.6667,
              "percent_delta": 0.1538,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.6667,
              "percent_delta": 0.1538,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.6667,
            "percent_delta": 0.1539,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.6667,
            "percent_delta": 0.1539,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.0198,
        "defense_index": 1.1622,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1559
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 100,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6173,
        "runs_scored": 801.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 201.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
        "offense_index": 1.1009,
        "defense_index": 1.2126,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3566
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2007,
        "offense_edge": 0.0198,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1009,
        "defense_strength": 0.1622,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2126,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9928,
        "run_prevention": 1.01,
        "strikeout": 0.9859
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678061",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678061",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 50.0,
            "k_percent": 16.7,
            "bb_percent": 3.0,
            "woba": 0.209,
            "xwoba": 0.281,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 31.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.8999,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2085,
            "whiff_percent": 23.4,
            "swing_percent": 52.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9908,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1271,
            "regression_edge": -2.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.9286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": 1.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0191
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678061",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 26,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 26,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 26,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
                "release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5228,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8919,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0191,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1365,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1441,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9878,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9815,
          "walk_factor": 0.9442,
          "homer_factor": 0.9609,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.072,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "678061",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9945,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9945,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9749,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9824,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9917,
            "adjusted": 1
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261004_ATL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261004

20261004_ATL@LAD

home

Blake Snell

True

5.1

3.2

-5

2/3

3/5

9/5

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.8984375,
      "WHIP": 1.1015625,
      "IP": 42.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.741,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.8478,
      "sample_weight": 0.624,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9279,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0688,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 0.835,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.8,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.245,
      "xwoba": 0.228,
      "barrel_percent": 2.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 15.8,
      "whiff_percent": 34.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 42.2,
      "season_ERA": 1.898,
      "season_WHIP": 1.102,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6164383561643836,
        "last_10": 0.3835616438356164
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 9.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6429,
        "prior_weight": 0.3571
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "report_date": "20261004",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 9,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 86.0,
            "Pitches": 396.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 17.2,
            "Pitches": 79.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.2462,
            "WHIP": 1.1538,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.13846,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83077,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32308,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33846,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 42.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 173.0,
            "Pitches": 741.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.1111,
            "H": 3.4444,
            "BB": 1.7778,
            "SO": 6.1111,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 19.2222,
            "Pitches": 82.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8984,
            "WHIP": 1.1016,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21094,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72656,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.28906,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 42.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 173.0,
            "Pitches": 741.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.1111,
            "H": 3.4444,
            "BB": 1.7778,
            "SO": 6.1111,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 19.2222,
            "Pitches": 82.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8984,
            "WHIP": 1.1016,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21094,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72656,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.28906,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.418,
        "predicted_H": 4.206,
        "predicted_BB": 1.742,
        "predicted_SO": 5.779,
        "predicted_HR": 0.258,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.6084,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2159
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5009,
      "form_weight": 0.4991,
      "form_reliability": 0.6429,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 9.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6429,
        "prior_weight": 0.3571
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.418,
          "final": 1.2086,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.206,
          "final": 3.1011,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.742,
          "final": 2.3721,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.779,
          "final": 7.3923,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.258,
          "final": 0.1288,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.6084,
          "final": 2.6084,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2159,
          "final": 1.2159,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 42.2,
        "ER": 9,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 55,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 1.8984374999999998,
        "WHIP": 1.1015624999999998,
        "K9": 11.601562499999998,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 9,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 9,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7022246654418993,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 9.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6429,
          "prior_weight": 0.3571
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "player_name": "Blake Snell",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 100,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6173,
        "runs_scored": 801.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 201.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
        "offense_index": 1.1009,
        "defense_index": 1.2126,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3566
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.0198,
        "defense_index": 1.1622,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1559
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2007,
        "offense_edge": 0.1009,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0198,
        "defense_strength": 0.2126,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1622,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0136,
        "run_prevention": 0.9719,
        "strikeout": 1.0044
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605483",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605483",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 156.0,
            "k_percent": 31.8,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.245,
            "xwoba": 0.228,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 2.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 15.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 71.9158,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 91.063,
            "whiff_percent": 34.8,
            "swing_percent": 49.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.8318,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1036,
            "regression_edge": 0.4857,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.4,
            "barrel_edge": 1.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
            "whiff_edge": 1.3714,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0332
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605483",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.27067101921558,
              "release_spin_rate": 2341.8445698453625,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.27067101921558,
                "release_spin_rate": 2341.8445698453625,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2707,
              "release_spin_rate": 2341.8446,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0332,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2374,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.8478,
          "sample_weight": 0.624,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9279,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0688,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 0.835,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.017,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "605483",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.955,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.955,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.897,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0429,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261004_ATL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261004

20261004_SD@MIL

away

Michael King

True

6.0

5.0

-3

-1

6/3

0/0

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.09375,
      "WHIP": 1.15625,
      "IP": 192.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.818,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0884,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 0.9966,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 36,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "report_date": "20261004",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 33,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 474.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 94.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.1,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 944.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3351,
            "WHIP": 1.0703,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25946,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76216,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30811,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85946,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0973
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 33,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 192.0,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 68.0,
            "H": 149.0,
            "BB": 73.0,
            "SO": 167.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 783.0,
            "Pitches": 3078.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0606,
            "H": 4.5152,
            "BB": 2.2121,
            "SO": 5.0606,
            "HR": 0.6061,
            "BF": 23.7273,
            "Pitches": 93.2727
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0938,
            "WHIP": 1.1562,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77604,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38021,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86979,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10417
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.998,
        "predicted_H": 4.727,
        "predicted_BB": 2.02,
        "predicted_SO": 5.192,
        "predicted_HR": 0.554,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0261,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1354
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4056,
      "form_weight": 0.5944,
      "form_reliability": 0.8684,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.998,
          "final": 1.9988,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.727,
          "final": 5.2433,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.02,
          "final": 1.2007,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.192,
          "final": 4.7085,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.554,
          "final": 0.7349,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0261,
          "final": 3.0261,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1354,
          "final": 1.1354,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.2,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.335135135135135,
        "WHIP": 1.0702702702702702,
        "K9": 7.735135135135135,
        "HR9": 0.8756756756756756,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 9,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7505708436513586,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 33.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8684,
          "prior_weight": 0.1316
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "player_name": "Michael King",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.9922,
        "defense_index": 1.0686,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 103,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6358,
        "runs_scored": 832.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": 214.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
        "offense_index": 1.1433,
        "defense_index": 1.1775,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3822
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1938,
        "offense_edge": -0.0078,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1433,
        "defense_strength": 0.0686,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1775,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9886,
        "run_prevention": 1.0258,
        "strikeout": 0.9827
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650633",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650633",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 730.0,
            "k_percent": 21.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.295,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.9245,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0549,
            "whiff_percent": 24.5,
            "swing_percent": 46.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0358,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1057,
            "regression_edge": -0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0483
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650633",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
                "release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0017,
              "release_spin_rate": 2291.8143,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0483,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.345,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0884,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 0.9966,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "650633",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9897,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261004_SD@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261004

20261004_SD@MIL

home

Logan Henderson

True

6.0

5.0

-3

-2

2/2

1/3

8/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.471186440677966,
      "WHIP": 0.8440677966101695,
      "IP": 98.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.463,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6816,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9421,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0503,
      "walk_factor": 0.918,
      "homer_factor": 0.9667,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.1,
      "woba": 0.252,
      "xwoba": 0.257,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 26.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 98.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.471,
      "season_WHIP": 0.844,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "report_date": "20261004",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 462.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 92.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1724,
            "WHIP": 0.7241,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24138,
            "H_per_IP": 0.55172,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17241,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06897,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13793
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 63.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 922.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.3,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1,
            "WHIP": 0.7833,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.58333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 98.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 64.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 110.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 371.0,
            "Pitches": 1505.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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            "SO": 6.1111,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4712,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.27458,
            "H_per_IP": 0.65085,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19322,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11864,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14237
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 1.319,
        "predicted_SO": 6.021,
        "predicted_HR": 0.832,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7294,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8981
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 2.7294,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8981,
          "final": 0.8981,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 63,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 2.1,
        "WHIP": 0.7833333333333334,
        "K9": 9.450000000000001,
        "HR9": 1.35,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7169447175252327,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "player_name": "Logan Henderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 8.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 162,
        "wins": 103,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6358,
        "runs_scored": 832.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": 214.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
        "offense_index": 1.1433,
        "defense_index": 1.1775,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3822
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.9922,
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        "recent": {
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          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1938,
        "offense_edge": 0.1433,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0078,
        "defense_strength": 0.1775,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0686,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0134,
        "run_prevention": 0.9713,
        "strikeout": 1.0064
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "701656",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "701656",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 348.0,
            "k_percent": 29.6,
            "bb_percent": 5.1,
            "woba": 0.252,
            "xwoba": 0.257,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.2333,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8148,
            "whiff_percent": 26.5,
            "swing_percent": 53.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.9063,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7521,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1857,
            "bb_edge": 1.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0895
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "701656",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.2657231915627,
              "release_spin_rate": 2417.7993644891867,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.2657231915627,
                "release_spin_rate": 2417.7993644891867,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2657,
              "release_spin_rate": 2417.7994,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0895,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6394,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6816,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9421,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0503,
          "walk_factor": 0.918,
          "homer_factor": 0.9667,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "701656",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9421,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9421,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.918,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9667,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0503,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261004_SD@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}